Yesterday, I looked at the starting rotations of each American League East team. Today, I will look at the starting rotations for each American League Central team.

The American League Central is home to some of the best young pitchers in the game. As a matter of fact, five out of the last six AL Cy Young award winners have come from the Central.

Here are the starting rotations of each American League Central team as presently constructed.

Minnesota Twins

1. Scott Baker, RHP

2. Nick Blackburn, RHP

3. Kevin Slowey, RHP

4. Carl Pavano, RHP

5. Francisco Liriano, LHP

Quick Take – This rotation is littered with No.2 and No.3-type starters. However, Liriano can be a No.1 if he can regain his form prior to Tommy John surgery. Despite their lack of a true No.1 starter, this rotation has plenty of depth.

Chicago White Sox

1. Jake Peavy, RHP

2. Mark Buehrle, LHP

3. Gavin Floyd, RHP

4. John Danks, LHP

5. Freddy Garcia, RHP

Quick Take – The White Sox have the best pitching staff that nobody ever talks about. Danks is a very good No.4 starter. I will be interested to see how Peavy adjusts to the AL over the course of an entire season. Garcia will battle Dan Hudson for the No.5 starter spot in spring training.

Detroit Tigers

1. Justin Verlander, RHP

2. Rick Porcello, RHP

3. Max Scherzer, RHP

4. Jeremy Bonderman, RHP

5. Armando Galarraga, RHP

Quick Take – This rotation has more questions than answers going into 2010. Verlander threw more pitches than any other pitcher in baseball last season (3,937). How is that going to affect him in 2010. Will Porcello experience a sophomore slump? Can Bonderman and Galarraga bounce back in 2010?

Kansas City Royals

1. Zack Greinke, RHP

2. Gil Meche, RHP

3. Luke Hochevar, RHP

4. Kyle Davies, RHP

5. Brian Bannister, RHP

Quick Take – This staff is led by the great Greinke, who was last year’s AL Cy Young award winner. Nobody expects him to repeat last year’s performance in 2010, but he shouldn’t be that far off. The Royals need Hochevar to step up. This is a big year for him.

Cleveland Indians

1. Jake Westbrook, RHP

2. Fausto Carmona, RHP

3. Justin Masterson, RHP

4. David Huff, LHP

5. Aaron Laffey, LHP

Quick Take – For the most part, this is a young rotation, but it’s not very good right now. Carmona has been one of baseball biggest mysteries over the last couple of years. Having watched Masterson over the last couple of years with the Red Sox, I feel be is better suited to be in the bullpen.

Tomorrow, I will look at the American League West. The West is home to one of the top young pitchers in the game Felix Hernandez. Not only will teams in the West have to worry about Hernandez in 2010, but will have to contend with him for years to come.

More on that story later.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

This is a great story.

The Detroit Tigers signed Jose Valverde to a two-year, $14 million deal for no particular reason.

This is a team that may not be doing well financially. Before this acquisition, their payroll for next season was already $100 million.  They sunk a bunch of money into the future for a title and they have lost a lot of revenue by not reaching the playoffs.

In what some think was a response to this, they shipped off their best young player, fan favorite Curtis Granderson, to the Yankees as a salary dump.  Curtis Granderson isn’t even making that much:

2010:$5.5M, 2011:$8.25M, 2012:$10M, 2013:$13M club option ($2M buyout)

But we all kinda nodded and said “OK, he’s pretty much the only guy on the team with a heavier contract that was tradeable.”  Seriously, take a look at this.

Miguel Cabrera: $120 mil through 2015
Magglio Ordonez: 2010: $18 mil + 2011 and 2012 options
Carlos Guillen: 2010: $13 mil 2011: $13 mil
Jeremy Bonderman: 2010: $12.5 mil
Dontrelle Willis: 2010: $12 mil
Nate Robertson: 2010: $10 mil
Brandon Inge: 2010: $6.6 mil

And then they immediately about-face and sign Valverde with Granderson’s money.  Even if dumping Granderson wasn’t a payroll move, starting pitchers are going for this kind of money–Joel Piniero may go somewhere for roughly the same price.

Even better: Valverde is a Type A.  The Tigers lose a first round draft pick and a supplemental pick out of this.  For a reliever.

And the cherry on top, courtesy of Rotowire:

There is also an option for a third year at $9 million.

Beautiful.

Valverde is an OK reliever. Not much better than that. He’s had a decent season here and there, but he’s got SAVES and so he’s overvalued.  Now he’ll likely slide into the closer role and be Todd Jones v2.0 for the Tigers, but with a worse defense behind him.

I literally cannot wait to see this.

Edit: ahahaha the Tigers’ first draft pick in the 2010 draft was no. 19.  Picks 16-30 are unprotected by type A free agent signings, so that goes immediately to the Astros.

I literally cannot imagine a worse way to lose your first round draft pick.

First, let’s get closure on Javier Vazquez, Big Mike.   I think he’s a good pitcher.   As I said, I’m worried he might do quite well on the Yankees.  I think we were debating, partly, whether he might have been able to excell even more as a pitcher until now - and, why, or why not, and, as you asked:  why even ask that question?  We covered these for now.

Second, I agree with you main premise about how few real ace pitchers have existed.   The kind, as you wrote, like Greg Maddux, who performed at a excellent level year in and year out.   When I just tried to think of pitchers who had great seasons several years in a row, or, even ten years in a row, the list quickly dwindled down to a few.   I’d list Roger Clemens, despite his having a few average seasons, but, with his apparent use of steroids or other drugs, his record is tainted.  Had he not done steroids, I used to consider him the best pitcher in the history of baseball simply on the basis of having many more Cy Young Awards – and the consistency and excellence that went with most of those. But, as you alluded to, your mind goes to the great pitchers who were on top for a few seasons.  Of course, because I loved Pedro Martinez, I can’t be objective, but, I do believe his outstanding seasons were so special and dominant that he’s in a category of his own…..but, I admit, Sandy Koufaz, dazzled everyone for several brief seasons and vanished — similarly to Pedro.

What’s so easy to do is rattle off the pitchers who have stellar seasons, then fade for a while, or, get injured, or, are never the same.  I thought of Jeremy Bonderman on the Tigers.  God did he look sharp mowing down the Yankees in the playoffs back in 2006 or whenever it was.  Since then, he hasn’ t been the same due to injuries.  His teammate, Justin Verlander, looked like his old self a bit this year, but, after struggling in the previous two years, I believe, partly due to arm troubles too, right?  I won’t go thru the list, but it makes you realize that for a pitcher to be like Maddux, you have to have the talent, the effort – including terrific “laser” focus on the mound – and, the luck to pull it off.

Our exchange reminded me of a closely related topic:  what  about the position players with good ability who are not superstars – but, above average – and, through hard work and a positive attitude - improve and become nearly as valuable to their team as a superstar?  I’m talking about a guy like Kevin Youkilis on the Red  Sox.  Scouts noticed Youkilis in the minors and noticed his patience at the plate (he got the “The Greek God of Walks” nickname in “Moneyball.”)  Yet, no one speculated just how good Youkilis would become after his first few years starting in the big leagues.  I think he’s the best hitter on the team now.  He can hit for power and contact.  He’s got an incredible eye and walks a lot.  He fouls off pitches in Johnny Damon style.  He’s made himself a star, in essence.

I raise Youkilis because, to me, it relates back to some of the Javier Vazquez questions we just debated.   Again, the fact that Youkilis surprised people around Boston with how quickly he improved was an exciting, interesting story.   Dustin Pedroia wasn’t expected to be good enough to win “Rookie of the Year” and then earn the “Most Valuable Player” award, either.   He’s another guy who seemed to improve quickly, but, I think, in retrospect, he just started a bit slowly in his first year.  Though he’s very short, and has a big sweeping swing for a guy his size, he’s got tremendous confidence and a chip on his shoulder.   Pedroia is not a classic “star” but a good guy to have on your team.

Let’s face it:  Sometimes, we cannot identify the fine line between talent and effort.   Sometimes, I may not care, but, for baseball lunatics like you and me, it’s a topic of interest.   I recall when Fred Lynn was on the Red Sox in the 1970s, some people wondered if was a bit too “casual” or if he worked hard enough.  He was from California, so some fans felt Freddy might have more  of a beach or surfing mentality.  It was quite ludicrous.   Lynn seemed to play hard to me.  In fact, he got hurt banging into the hard centerfield wall at Fenway Park more than once.

Then, this exchange gets me thinking about what Larry Bird used to say about Kevin McHale back in the 1980s when the two of them were on that great Celtic team that won three championships in the 80s.  Bird was convinced that McHale could’ve been even better – if he just worked on his game more and got more serious about it.   McHale, meanwhile, had evolved into one of the best players in the NBA on offense and defense, so, he didn’t seem to have a lot of “improving” to do.  Bird harped on this – and it’s a point that got repeated for years.   Bird practiced with McHale.  Maybe he was at least right, in some tiny way.    But, I bring the example up to illustrate how subjective and complex this topic is of “Is the player meeting his full potential?”   What does it really mean?  I think it gets noticed and discussed when the talent appearas EXTREME, but, for every one player like that, there are 200 other players wrestling with the same questions season to season:   How can I get better?

In the meantime, for we baseball observers, the degree of talent we see in a player vs. the degree of effort is often in the eye of the beholder.

This is reprinted from MLBTradeRumors.com by Tim Dierkes.

Got a bad contract on your hands?  Maybe you can swap it for another team’s problem.  I’ll list the bad contracts, you connect the dots.

• Vernon Wells, Blue Jays - five years, $98.5MM
• Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – five years, $90MM
• Barry Zito, Giants – four years, $83MM
• Alex Rios, White Sox – five years, $59.7MM
• Travis Hafner, Indians – three years, $40.25MM
• Aaron Rowand, Giants – three years, $36MM
• Carlos Guillen, Tigers – two years, $26MM
• Carlos Silva, Mariners – two years, $25MM
• Francisco Cordero, Reds – two years, $25MM
• Oliver Perez, Mets – two years, $24MM
• Gary Matthews Jr., Angels - two years, $23MM
• Milton Bradley, Cubs – two years, $21MM
• Juan Pierre, Dodgers – two years, $18.5MM
• Jeff Suppan, Brewers – one year, $14.5MM
• David Ortiz, Red Sox – one year, $12.5MM
• Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers – one year, $12.5MM
• Jose Guillen, Royals – one year, $12MM
• Eric Chavez, Athletics – one year, $12MM
• Dontrelle Willis, Tigers – one year, $12MM
• Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks – one year, $11MM
• Fausto Carmona, Indians – two years, $11MM
• Scott Linebrink, White Sox – two years, $10.5MM
• Nate Robertson, Tigers – one year, $10MM
• Edgar Renteria, Giants – one year, $9.5MM
• Pat Burrell, Rays – one year, $9MM
• Kei Igawa, Yankees – two years $8MM
• Jeff Francis, Rockies - one year, $5.75MM
• Kyle Farnsworth, Royals – one year, $5MM
• Willy Taveras, Reds – one year, $4MM
• Aaron Miles, Cubs – one year, $2.7MM
• Honorable mentions: Michael Young (4/64, some deferred), Carlos Lee (3/55.5), Derek Lowe (3/45), Todd Helton (2/40.3), Kyle Lohse (3/32.625), Magglio Ordonez (1/18, possible vesting option), Mike Lowell (1/12), Chris Snyder (2/11.25), Cristian Guzman (1/8), Jamie Moyer (1/7.5), Kaz Matsui (1/5)

Milton Bradley was suspended the other day by Chicago Cubs for the remainder of the season and by now most people have to be wondering just how Jim Hendry is going to get himself out of this mistake? Bradley has a well documented history of antics throughout his career but still has been able to be a consistent offensive threat when he’s actually in the lineup. Moving him, and the remaining $21 Million in salary over the next two seasons, won’t be an easy chore.

Buster Olney speculates today that the San Diego Padres could be interested as they’ll be in need of a corner outfielder this offseason. Bradley would serve as a bat behind Adrian Gonzalez (who I don’t see them trading, by the way) and would presumably be cheap considering the fact that the Cubs will have to eat much of that contract in order to move him.

I’ve also seen speculation suggesting a “bad contract” swap with the New York Mets in which Bradley would be traded for Oliver Perez. The Mets could use Bradley’s offense but moving Perez would create another hole in a starting rotation already in need. Unless taking on Bradley is a condition to acquiring Carlos Zambrano (think Mike Lowell in the Josh Beckett trade) and the Cubs are willing to either pay part of his salary or take lesser prospects I don’t see New York being his next destination.

Speaking of “bad contract” trades and the New York Mets, just what are they going to do with Luis Castillo? Is it possible that they could find another team to take him in exchange for someone else’s bad contract?

This is where the Detroit Tigers enter the conversation. The Tigers will likely lose Placido Polanco through free agency and could use Castillo to fill that hole for the next two seasons. For the same amount of money that Castillo is owed, the Mets could install Jeremy Bonderman into their rotation. Both teams will still be spending the same in payroll but would spending that money in a (seemingly) more useful manner.

I got a couple fat packs of ‘09 Topps Chrome at Walmart, cuz that’s what was available.  Seven cards and I guess two inserts or refractors per pack.

Pack 1

175 Bobby Parnell Mets RC- I am so sick of pulling Niese & Parnell rookies this year… I guess Max Scherzer found his anti-collection successors.

68 Jay Bruce- Jay Bruce got a Rookie Cup?  Really?  I didn’t think last year’s class was that weak.

129 Jeremy Bonderman Blue Refractor #ed /199- Blue refractors are nice, and less… odd, than bronze. For a flagship at least.

164 Ryan Zimmerman X-Fractor- Who needs an arbitrarily limited regular refractor of random color when you can have this?  The X-Fractors this year are officially SICK~!!  Gone is the s***ty over-the-top “static bling” of recent years, replaced by this much more subtle look… THAT MOVES~!!  This is the closest thing I’ve seen to an Atomic Refractor in years.  More of this plz.

90 Johan Santana

168 JD Drew

185 Everth Cabrera Padres RC

Checklist 3 of 3

Pack 2

97 Dustin Pedroia

147 Garrett Anderson

W8 Kenji Johjima World Baseball Classic- Have I mentioned how awesome I think the World Baseball Classic is?  I loooooooove it.  Keeper!

21 Brad Hawpe Refractor

19 Rich Harden- Keeper.

110 Jonathan Papelbon

121Francisco Rodriguez

Even if 2009 Topps Chrome’s design was total arse, it’d still be somewhat worthwhile entirely on the strength of it’s easily obtainable X-Fractors.  Fortunately, it looks good and has good photography from what I’ve seen too, so it’s a big winner all-around.  This probably won’t be the last of this I pick up, it’s right up there with Upper Deck X.

Also, to make up for lack of Chrome pictures (not that a scan could ever hope to convey the epicness of this years almost Atomic Refractor-quality X-Fractors), here’s a couple quickie sketches I did with a sharpie while sitting around downtown earlier this month:

Not too bad for 40-50 minutes combined when I’ve never done straight ink before I guess.

Until Our Next…

Oh how long we have come in six years. As I write this the Tigers are in first place and have a good chance at reaching the playoffs for the second time in the past three years. Six years ago they were on pace to be the worst team in the history of baseball. With a win on the final day of the season the Tigers ended the season at 43-119 just beating out the 120 loss mark by set by the ‘62 Mets. The day after the tigers won that final game and the newspaper headline was literally, “NOT THE WORST!” That was the day I knew that team would scar me for life. Six year’s later I wondered what happened to those household names like Steve Sparks and Wilfredo Ledezma. After hours of painstaking research here is what happened to the opening day roster of those less than spectacular 2003 Tigers:

Starting Pitchers:

Nate Cornejo: Went 6-17 in 2003 with a 4.67 ERA. He pitched with the Tigers for 5 games the following season going 1-3 with a 8.42 ERA. He was relagated to the minors the following season where he toiled away until he retired in 2006 as a member of the White Sox organization.

Mike Maroth: Maroth went 9-21 in 2003 with a 5.73 ERA marking the first time a pitcher has lost 20 games in 80 years. Maroth pitched for the Tigers until 2007 before being traded to the Cardinals where he was released in October. He bounced to the Royals and then to the Blue Jays without pitching in the majors. He most recently pitched two innings in an exhibition game in March for the Blue Jays. He was released out of training camp from the Blue Jays and is currently a free agent.

Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman went 6-19 with the Tigers with a 5.56 ERA in 2003 and is one of the few players from 03 to still be with the Tigers. After showing some early promise he has run into injury troubles the past two years and his ceiling is now seen as a bottom of the rotation starter. He makes $12.5 million this year and has started 1 game with a 13.5 ERA. He is currently on the DL indefinitely because of pain in his pitching shoulder.

Adam Bernero: He put up an impressive mark of 1-12 with a 6.08 ERA in ‘03 in 17 starts. You have have to try to do something like that. Bernaro left the Tigers in ‘04 to go to on sight-seeing tour of the United States going to Colorado, Atlanta, Toronto, Kansas City and Philadelphia. He was most recently seen pitching 4 games in the Pirate’s minor league organization in 2008. He is still holding onto the dream, not retiring and he is currently a free agent. Tiger’s reunion anyone?

Gary Knotts: Knotts came over in the blockbuster deal in 2003 that sent Nate Robertson and Knotts to the Tigers and the immortal Mark Redman and Jerrod Fuell to the Marlins. Knotts didn’t disappoint. He went 3-8 in 18 starts and had an All-Star caliber 6.04 ERA. Knotts was released from the Tigers in 2005 and resurfaced two years later as a member of the Newark Bears of the independent from the MLB Atlantic League. He was signed by the Phillies to play in AA that same year and was traded to the Orioles in 2008 for the dreaded player to be named later. Not surprisingly he is currently a free agent.

Matt Roney: Roney was purchased by the Tigers from the Pirates which is never a good sign. Especially when the Pirates are begging to get you off of their hands. Although Roney started 11 games, he was primarily used as a reliever appearing in 45 games amassing a 1-9 record with a 5.45 ERA. Roney never saw the majors again spending 2 years in the Tiger’s system and then going to the desperate for pitching Texas Rangers’ system. He eventually would end up in AAA with Oakland’s affiliate putting up decent numbers. Toronto signed him in at the end of 2006 and a month into the 2007 season he tested positive for non-performance enhancing drugs and was suspended for 50 games. So we are talking anything from marijuana to cocaine. He hasn’t pitched since that 2007 season.

Nate Robertson: Robertson spent most of the 2003 season in AAA but was called up in August and fell into line with the rest of the Tigers pitching in and starting 8 games going 1-2 with a 5.44 ERA. Robertson has stuck with the Tigers since that year and has continued to absolutely suck. He biggest contribution to the team during it’s 2006 run to the World Series was sticking an inordinate amount of Big League Chew into his mouth and yelling “Gum Time” to start rallies. He was demoted to the bullpen just prior to this season and before injuring his elbow, he appeared in 21 games this season with a steller 1-0 mark and a fantastic 7.71 ERA. Despite that he makes $7 million this year. He said going to the bullpen was the “lowest point” of his career. Just wait until next year when you are pitching in an independent league Nate.

Wilfredo Ledezma: Like Robertson, Ledezma started 8 games for the 2003 Tigers and like Robertson and all of the other Tiger’s pitchers, was terrible. He went 3-7 in 13 appearances with a 5.79 ERA. Ledezma stayed with the Tigers until 2007 when they traded him to Atlanta for Macay McBride. After recording an over 7 ERA with the Braves, they traded him to the Padres 18 games after acquiring him. The Padres realized they traded for a crappy reliever and put him on waivers in 2008 where the Diamond Backs claimed him. He pitched 4 innings for the D-Backs but they let him walk after the season. The Nationals signed him to a minor league contract and he pitched in 5 games for the big league club where he recorded an all-star caliber 9.53 ERA before being sent down. He was recently released from the farm system of a 32-72 team. It’s a good bet that Ledezma and his career 5.17 ERA is out of the major leagues for good.

Shane Loux: Used in 11 games, starting 4 of them, the then 22 year-old Loux went 1-1 with a 7.12 ERA in ‘03. Loux spent the majority of his time in the minors following the 2003 season going from Toledo to Omaha (Kansas city’s affiliate) in 2006 and then spending time in Los Angeles of Anaheim’s system the past two years. He is currently with the big league club. Appearing in 13 games, starting in 6 of them, Loux has put up vintage, 2003-esque numbers, a 2-3 record with a 5.24 ERA.

Chris Mears: The last player left to cover that started a game for the worst in the AL Tigers is the only one with a steady job. Mears started 3 games while appearing in a total of 29 games. A 1-3 record and a 5.44 ERA in his only year in the majors was good enough to earn him a spot on the 2004 Canadian national team that competed in the Athens Olympics. They finished 4th. After making the Tiger’s minor league tour in 2004 going to Erie to Toledo and back to Erie he went to St. Louis’ AA affiliate Springfield and then to Atlanta’s AAA team in Richmond. He retired in after the 2005 season and is currently an amateur scout for the Boston Red Sox. He is assigned to the midwest.

I’m going to split this up. Those are everyone who started a game for the worst team ever in the American League. Check back tomorrow for part 2 and future hall of famers like Shane Halter and Dean Palmer.

If Seattle had plans to trade Erik Bedard, those plans were dashed when the lefty hit the DL with shoulder inflammation.  In his last start, Bedard fired 81 pitches in just three innings.  I’ve written about this before – 100 pitches isn’t the problem, a heavy pitch count in an inning or two is much worse.  Returning to the rotation will be Jason Vargas.  [ESPN]

Brett Gardner broke his thumb breaking up a double play, and the Yankees outfielder will miss the next month of the season.  His thumb is in a cast, but fortunately doesn’t need surgery.  [ESPN]

Jim Leyland remains optimistic that Jeremy Bonderman and Joel Zumaya might return this season.  Zumaya hopes cortisone shots will help avoid season ending surgery (an eventuality, really) and Bonderman has been throwing lately without discomfort.  [SI]

Kansas City isn’t giving up on Tony Pena.  It’s just giving up on the idea that he can play shortstop.  Now, the strong armed Pena will be given a shot to pitch.  I like the idea…  [FoxSports]

Texas starter Kevin Millwood left his start against Kansas City after two innings with a pain in his butt.  The strained left glute muscle wouldn’t allow him to extend his front leg when throwing…  Now Texas is waiting to see if this means Millwood might miss a start.  [MLB]

A lot of action on the transaction wire…

Hurry Back!  Cincinnati pitcher Jared Burton heads to the DL with shoulder fatigue.  Brewer pitcher Seth McClung heads to the DL with an elbow strain.  Phillies reliever Clay Condrey heads to the DL with a left oblique strain.

What Gives?  Wladimir Balentien was designated for assignment by Seattle.  The power/speed prospect hasn’t panned out - in 400 major league at bats, he’s hit .209…  Houston did the same with Chad Paronto, who hasn’t stuck with six organizations.  At 33, he’s running out of shots.

Player to be Named Later:  Jess Todd was sent from Memphis to Cleveland to complete the Mark DeRosa trade.  Todd is a reliever with some talent – he was the closer for Memphis, has great strikeout numbers, good control, and a fighting shot to help the Indians as soon as 2010.

*Note*

*Very soon I’ll be covering the Detroit Tigers exclusively through a new blog! I’m honored to say that a big name in Fantasy Sports is launching a network of team sites and has asked me to run their brand new Tigers blog. I’ll have all the details as soon as everything is up and running, so keep your eyes peeled.*

With just about six weeks remaining until the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline the Detroit Tigers find themselves in first place in the AL Central, albeit with some gaping holes in their roster. Through ineffectiveness or injury the Tigers are struggling to fill the bottom two spots in the starting rotation, are platooning various youngsters in the outfield with mixed results and have little flexibility in the bullpen. 

Quality left-handed pitching seems to be lacking, to put it gently, and quality left-handed hitting is a problem as well. The lineup protection for Miguel Cabrera is drying up, which could lead teams to pitch around him more and more.

If this team intends on staying in first place these shortcomings need to be addressed, and quickly.

It should be a buyers market this year. The state of our economy has impacted everyone, including major league franchises. A number of teams are beyond out of the running for a playoff berth and are likely weeks or even days away from a rebuilding purge of veteran talent. This trade deadline bonanza should be as rich and fruitful as any in the last decade.

It’s too bad that the Tigers won’t be able to capitalize on it.

Adding quality talent at the deadline requires two things – prospects to trade away and money to pay the players you are acquiring. The Tigers are desperately short on prospects and have a payroll that is not only bursting at the seams, but with players who are not helping this team win to boot.

I’ve spent the better part of a week scouring the internet, searching for one reputable baseball publication that considers the Tigers farm system to be in good shape. I can’t find one.

Trades for Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis sent most of the top tier talent in the system elsewhere. The #1 prospect in the organization coming into this season was Rick Porcello, who is no longer a prospect and definitely not for sale. The same can be said for Ryan Perry, who has been elevated to the big club once again, so starved for bullpen depth. A flurry of position players have come up through the system to the Tigers thus far, with barely an impact.

It’s time to tell it like it is – the Tigers farm system, as a whole, is awful.

What little quality talent exists in the minor league affiliates is either penciled in for next season or blocked by unmovable contracts on the 25 man roster. Placido Polanco and Matt Treanor are free agents at the end of this season and Gerald Laird is in his last arbitration year. Many people, including myself, expect Scott Sizemore and Dusty Ryan to take their place in 2010, meaning they would be off-limits come trading time.

What does that leave available for the Tigers to offer in exchange for the quality talent they need right now?

Not much.

Of the top 100 prospects listed by Baseball America the Detroit Tigers have one, the aforementioned Rick Porcello.  Beyond The Box Score rated the Tigers farm system as having the least value in all of baseball, and that was including Porcello. Scouting Book has a matrix of the top 393 prospects in baseball, including their ranks with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Aside from Porcello (19) and Perry (97) the next Tiger on the Scouting Book list is shortstop Cale Iorg at 137. He is un-ranked by both BA and BP. The same can be said for Jeff Larish (251), Dusty Ryan (254), Casey Crosby (287), Fu-Te-Ni (317) and Scott Sizemore (358).

The cupboard is bare my friends.

Major league teams looking to unload high-priced, high-talent veterans want inexpensive, young talent in return. Dave Dombrowski can’t give what he doesn’t have. Opposing MLB GM’s won’t take what they don’t want. Complicating matters even more are the debilitating contracts littering the major league roster, chained to the ankles of management like boulders.

I think it’s fair to state that Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman are not helping this ballclub win very many games this year. They are however draining the Tigers cash reserves at an alarming rate.

The Tigers will pay these five players a combined $55,500,000 this year. While the contract of Gary Sheffield comes off the books for 2010 the other four remain, at a staggering $47,500,000 for next season. That’s more than one hundred million dollars over two years for five players that for one reason or another are doing nothing to help this team win. To be fair, Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman have succumbed to injuries, so the argument can be made that there was some bad luck here, although I believe these were bad contracts regardless of health. However you figure it, that money is going to be paid out, like it or not.

Even if the team were able to pull a fast one and acquire some veteran talent for nothing, the Tigers will have to pay these players. Am I the only one wondering where the money would come from?

It certainly isn’t coming from ticket revenue, as attendance at Comerica Park is down, in a big way. Last season the Tigers set an all-time record for attendance, drawing more than three million fans and averaging 39,538 fans per home game. So far this season the Tigers have drawn 795,717 fans through 28 home games, for an average of 28,418. That’s a 28% drop from last season, and the team has been in first place for weeks, something that did not happen last year.

I understand that Mike Ilitch is a wealthy man, and that he loves winning, but can we really expect him to pad a payroll that is already the fifth highest in all of baseball? When attendance is down 28%? We haven’t even explored the fact that next years payroll will be even higher.

Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Joel Zumaya among others will be arbitration eligible and will get enormous raises. The Tigers will see Fernando Rodney, Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon and Adam Everett hit the free agent market – meaning they will need to be re-signed or replaced, which is going to cost money.

When the big picture is examined in this light I struggle to find any rational arguments that support the Tigers being buyers at the deadline, at least for big name talent. Yes, Mike Ilitch has stated that he is willing to do whatever it takes to win, but sometimes desire alone is not enough.

I hope I’m wrong. I sincerely do. I would love nothing more than to see the Tigers add the missing pieces to a championship run and march through the playoffs unabated. I just don’t see how the organization can transform a litiny of mediocre prospects into star power, or where the money will come from to pay them. We’ll see. It’s a long summer and anything is possible. But I won’t be surprised if July 31 passes quietly in Detroit this year.

Hazaa

That’s all for today kiddies, but before I go I wanted to call your attention to a new badge on my site. You’ll find it in the upper right hand corner, it’s a colorful little thing with a Stand Up To Cancer logo.

Upper Deck has teamed up with this wonderful charity to help raise money to fund cancer research. You can support their efforts and help the casue WITHOUT SPENDING A NICKEL. Just click the Help Now button and you can pick your favorite Upper Deck trading card. That’s it. Upper Deck will donate to Stand Up To Cancer on your behalf.

As a cancer survivor of more than 9 years now I can tell you first hand that lives like mine are saved by research the likes of which Stand Up To Cancer funds. It only takes a minute and you get to check out some cool vintage sports cards.

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts in the comments or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

What a game seven - with the Penguins taking down the Red Wings in Detroit 2 - 1 and without Sid the Kid after a groin/abdomen injury in the second period.  Even got Jeanne to watch it with me while eating Americone Dream ice cream…  But enough on hockey, this is a baseball site.

Meanwhile, Crosby wasn’t the only star going down with an injury.  Facing the Marlins, Roy Halliday left the game in the fourth inning with what has been described as a tweaked groin.  Jake Peavy was placed on the DL with a torn tibialis tendon in his ankle and will be out at least a month.  Peavy injured his ankle running the bases about four starts ago and has been trying to pitch through it.  When the pain never got better, they checked things out and found the tear.  Please pass the walking boot, thanks…

That’s some heavy pitching losses – but we’re not done yet.  One start into his comeback, Jeremy Bonderman returns to the DL with an injury related to thoracic outlet compression syndrome.  The Phillies lost reliever Scott Eyre to a sore calf, and Erik Bedard will miss a start with inflammation in his throwing shoulder.  (FANTASY ALERT!!!  Brandon Morrow, who is no longer the closer for the Mariners, takes his start and was likely heading back to the rotation…  Might be worth watching.  However, he wasn’t that good in five starts last year, so I’m NOT recommending that you jump on it and make the move.)

Three aces, a recovering former ace, and a solid reliver – that’s a lot of losses.

But, a future ace got his first win – Tommy Hanson of the Braves says that the butterflies are gone and he was able to pitch.

Here are the lastest Tigers moves…

• The Tigers put Jeremy Bonderman back on the DL, this is bad for the Tigers and they are missing out on a good arm.  Bonderman may take a couple of starts to get back to normal but I think he will.  Bonderman’s only concern his his velocity, he should still be able to throw a bit of heat and he needs to.  Ryan Perry got recalled for Bonderman, he will do well out of the Tigers bullpen as a seventh or eighth inning guy who nails down the win.
• Marcus Thames came back off the DL for the Tigers.  He will be a great upgrade and a nice bat in the middle-end of the line-up, his power will help spark the Tigers and he should still be able to hit 15-20 homers.  Thames will give the Tigers power and production.  Jeff Larish got sent down for Thames.  He will be missed as a great lefty bat with pop, he should be back up soon and he will do good for the Tigers when he is back.
• Don Kelly got called up for the Tigers.  Kelly has a solid bat and should get some hits and give some production at the bottom of the line-up.  He is also versatile and will do okay at almost any position.  He was kind-of fast in 2006 but he has added some weight and should be a bit slower.  He is a small power-speed guy which is always a good combo.  Clete Thomas got sent down in order for this to happen, his bat will be missed but he should be back soon, he just needs to improve on hitting a good fastball and not swinging for the fences on every fastball he sees.  Good Move?: Barely Bad

“I always turn to the sports pages first, which records man’s accomplishments. The front page has nothing but man’s failures.”

- Earl Warren

I’m heading “up north” this weekend, as we metro Detroiters say, with the soon to be Mrs. J Ellet Lambie. A little rest and time away from the city is needed. I’ll be away from this humble forum until Monday morning or so, but before I go I wanted to share a few links, and an email I received.

 Yesterday I wrote a piece about the collision between bloggers and traditional media folks based on the story of Jerod Morris and his post about Raul Ibanez. Thanks to those of you who have emailed me already with your thoughts on the subject, including Jerod Morris himself. As I linked to his original post he found the article and contacted me yesterday afternoon.

While I disagree to an extent with what he wrote and criticized him for it in my article, I believe he acted without malice and is hardly the bottom feeder others have called him. Jerod had this to say to me, in part:

“I just stumbled upon your post while scanning through the multitudes of comments on the Raul Ibanez posts on MSF and I wanted to commend you for writing a truly fair and balanced account of what happened.  I am well aware that opinions regarding my article on Raul fall strongly on both sides, and I think you did a fantastic job of presenting those opinions within the broader context of the media at large.”

“Anyway, thanks again for writing a really nice post.  I linked to it in my article from today as I accummulate the different perspectives on this issue.  If blogging is about anything it is about fostering debate and interaction, and I certainly take it as a positive that so many people have been inspired to share their views on this issue which is about a specific blog and a specific player, but that really gets to the heart of so many bigger issues”.

While my piece was admittedly not a glaring attack on Jerod, I did say in no uncertain terms that I thought he acted irresponsibly and was hardly without blame in all of this. The fact that he reached out to me in the way that he did says a lot, at least to me. Not many of us, if put in his position, right or wrong, would have handled the backlash as well as he has. I commend him for that, and for his open-minded approach.

On another topic, big thanks go out to Ryan Hallam once again. His expanding empire of fantasy baseball coverage now includes a new collaborative site – www.fantasybaseballtonight.com. His work (and mine) is now also appearing at www.fantasybaseballsearch.com and for the time being at least still at www.fightingchancefantasy.com.

Ryan has quickly become a friend, he’s been very kind with his time and advice and has also published a good bit of my work. Take a wander over to his sites, it’s good stuff and well worth the look for you fellow fantasy baseball freaks.

Here’s what I’ve been reading the last couple of days:

Kurt from Mack Avenue Tigers reported last night that Clete Thomas has been sent to Toledo and Don Kelly has been called up to the big club.

He also wrote this morning about the mystery of Ryan Perry, Jeremy Bonderman and somebody from the Tigers heading to the DL.

This one was written a week ago but I enjoyed it thoroughly and thought you might as well. Big JP from Always A Tiger had a great piece about Jeremy Bonderman needing to do his Frank Tanana impersonation going forward.

Joe Dexter over at Motor City Bengals put together an excellent profile of the Tigers 6th round draft pick Daniel Fields, also the son of former Tigers hitting coach Bruce Fields. It’s a very cool piece, check it out.

Billfer at The Detroit Tigers Weblog regularly covers the Tigers minor league affiliates, as he did here, it’s a segment I don’t miss.

Rivals profiles Luke Bailey here. Bailey is a high school catcher who caught a bad break and was drafted this past week in the 4th round by the Tampa Bay Rays. I’m rooting for this kid, if he heals up they could have a steal on their hands.

ESPN posted this last month, although I just found it yesterday. Bryan Fuller of Campbellsville University threw 21 shutout innings….in 26 hours.

Mike McClary of The Daily Fungo reminisces about the Ugie Urbina for Placido Polanco trade here, on it’s 5 year anniversary. On a side note, did you know Ugie is the only player in MLB history who’s initials are UU? It’s true.

That’s it for today kiddies. If you come across a story you think I might enjoy or should feature in the next edition of the sports pages, send it to jelletlambie@gmail.com

Until then….

Hazaa

*NOTE*

If you live in the metro Detroit area and find yourself looking for some baseball related fun Saturday morning, check out the release below from the Detroit Tigers.

DETROIT – Detroit’s favorite Mascot, PAWS, joins Eagle Sports Club’s 2009 Summer Baseball Opening Day celebration on Saturday, June 13 from 10:00-11:30 a.m. The event will include a dedication ceremony for two Balduck Memorial Park baseball field renovations, made possible in part by a grant awarded last season from the Detroit Tigers Foundation and Major League Baseball’s Baseball Tomorrow Fund.

In addition to the field dedication, there will be the annual Eagle Sports Club baseball parade, an inflatable carnival ride, the Universal Antique Ambulance, a St. John Emergency “Fun” Tent, and a presentation by Detroit City Council member, Alberta Tinsley-Talabi.

The Balduck Memorial Park field renovations benefited from one of 11 grants awarded in 2008 by the Detroit Tigers Foundation. This season, the Detroit Tigers Foundation presented over $200,000 in grants to 15 organizations during an on-field, pregame ceremony in May. The grants will directly assist nearly 6,000 youth through a variety of baseball-related programs, including the renovation of 20 baseball or softball fields throughout Michigan.

The Detroit Tigers Foundation, an affiliate of Ilitch Charities, was established in 2005 to enhance lives through the game of baseball. With a focus on youth, education and recreation, the Foundation aids and develops initiatives that help promote the game of baseball. Visit www.detroittigersfoundation.org for more information about the grant application process.

Balduck Memorial Park is located at 5271 Canyon Road in Detroit.

33-27, 1st in AL Central (4.0 GU on MIN)

(Photo courtesy of Charles Rex Arbogast/AP)

I hate when the Tigers go on the road to Chicago. Nothing against the city whatsoever, but it’s always a brawl when we head into US Cellular field for a series against the White Sox. And more times than not, we come out on the wrong end.

This time around, things went a bit differently. Despite playing five games in the Windy City in order to make up a rain-out from earlier this season, the Tigers slogged and fought their way to a series win, taking three of five from the Sox. But it wasn’t pretty, and the Tigers have some decisions to make about their roster and who is going to be a contributing member of it.

First and foremost, Jeremy Bonderman is nowhere close to being ready to return to the starting rotation, let alone the big club’s roster. Bondo pitched the second game of a doubleheader on Monday and got shelled. He was only able to go four innings, throwing 85 pitches, and gave up six runs on eight hits. The problem? Three of those runs were home runs. Bondo also struggled with his control and velocity, only topping out at 90 MPH and leaving pitches up in the strike zone.

The obvious question is “now what?” Well, it looked like the initial plan was to put Bonderman in the bullpen until he was actually ready to return to the rotation, but that looks like it might be off the table. After being optioned to Toledo on Monday, Ryan Perry looks set to re-join the team when they arrive in Pittsburgh. Since he didn’t complete his 10 day stint with Toledo, that can only mean that someone from the current roster is headed to the DL. I have to believe it’s Bonderman, given that his ineffectiveness would keep him out of the rotation, and because he has never really worked in a bullpen role. We’ll know more when the team gets to Pittsburgh, but my money is on a quick trip to the DL for Jeremy.

As far as the rest of the series goes, it wasn’t EXACTLY business as usual, but it worked. Armando Galarraga had a decent outing in a “no decision”, Justin Verlander threw a complete game win, Dontrelle Willis was his usual roller coaster ride and Edwin Jackson cooled off a bit.

Offensively, it was Adam Everett (Adam Everett?!?!?) who had the big weekend, going 5 for 9 and driving in four runs, including a solo home run, which was only his second of the season. Brandon Inge also showed some flashes of his early season brilliance, and hopefully it’s a sign of things to come as the season keeps chugging along. But it wasn’t all peaches and cream for the Tigers, as Clete Thomas was sent back down to Toledo again. Jim Leyland said it was to work on his bat speed, as Thomas’ recent power surge has been supplemented by a surge in strikeouts as well. Replacing him is youngster Don Kelly, who has been a hitting machine for the Mud Hens, batting .339 with three home runs and 22 RBI’s. He will get the start in left field tomorrow.

On Deck: Pittsburgh Pirates

• Record: 28-32 (5th in NL Central, 5.0 GB of Milwaukee)

Oh goodie. More sports against Pittsburgh.

Friday, June 12

• Tigers – Rick Porcello (6-4, 3.98 ERA, 36 SO)
• Pirates – Ian Snell (1-6, 5.54 ERA, 45 SO)

Saturday, June 13

• Tigers – Armando Galarraga (3-6, 5.19 ERA, 44 SO)
• Pirates – Zach Duke (6-4, 3.07 ERA, 44 SO)

Sunday, June 14

• Tigers – Dontrelle Willis (1-3, 6.60 ERA, 16 SO)
• Pirates – TBD

Okay, so I was slacking a bit on Monday, but I still made it to one of the games at US Cellular in Chicago. The radar looked a bit funny for the early game so I stayed away from making the 60 mile trek to the South Side until about 5pm that night.

I sat in my extremely comfortable recliner here in DeKalb, IL and watched Monday’s game one on TV. Sadly that meant listening to Ken Harrelson’s many irritating nicknames, nomenclatures and catch-phrases. But I survived and the Tigers won in an exciting back and forth exhibition of White Sox fielding woes.

In the ninth, Sox infielder Josh Fields fumbled a weak grounder by Miguel Cabrera. Shortstop Alexei Ramirez then misplayed a decently stuck grounder to the 5.5 hole – which should have been Chicago’s fourth error of the game, but was ruled a hit – allowing runners to reach first and second.

Inge then came through with his second hit and RBI of the game for the winning run. A game-ending double-play followed in the bottom half and Fernando Rodney picked up his 11th save. The final score was 5-4.

In game two, I sat by the left field foul pole and could see as no one was warming up in the sox bullpen as Jose Contreras threw the best eight innings of pitching that Sox fans have seen this season.

The Pitchers Return Game:

Jeremy Bonderman was looking good as he came off of an eight-inning scoreless outing in his third rehab start in AAA-Toledo. Bonderman was 1-1 in three AAA starts and finished his stint there with a 3.15 ERA, 13 strikeouts and only five walks.

Jose Contreras wasn’t rehabbing from any injury when he went down to AAA. He basically moved himself down before the team took any drastic action based on his struggles. His control was lacking and hiss off-speed breaking pitches, most notably his formerly devastating forkball, were missing their bite.

Contreras was 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA in six big-league starts in early 2009. He had walked 16 and fanned 17 before being sent down. In the minors however, the big Cuban was 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts. He still walked 16 hitters, but this time struck out 27 and even threw a complete game.

By the way the numbers were talking; both pitchers looked and sounded healthy. As Monday’s game when down, we saw that only one of these guys were really ready to make this start.

A big double in off the wall by Clete Thomas in the first inning made it seem like this game was going to be a long one. Unfortunately, the half-inning ended soon after Thomas touched second base.

I wish I could say Bonderman’s half went even that well. Luckily for the 6’ 2” righty the Sox bats have been pretty cold lately, because otherwise his outing could have easily been over in the first. Number two hitter Alexei Ramirez started the off the scoring with a homer after Podsednik flew out to the wall.

Soon there were far too many White Sox on base and the every ball that had either been fouled off or hit fair were crushed. There could have easily been three long ones in the first alone. But Bonderman got out of it after having only allowed that one.

In the second inning, and this hurts to say, Scott Podsednik hit a home run. The homer to right was his first of the year and only the 29th of his eight-year major league career.

Fortunately again, that was all there was in the inning against Bonderman.

Contreras, on the other hand, was already settling in. After the Thomas double, he would go on to throw zeros until the ninth. One walk to Brandon Inge would be all he allowed for a while.

Optimism sparked as Bonderman got through the third unscathed.

Bonderman:

The biggest problem with Bonderman was that his velocity is still not at the major league level. He only touched 90 MPH once or twice in 4+ innings. His secondary pitches – primarily slider and change-up – were not biting. And even when they were, the lack of velocity made them far too similar to his fastball to fool anyone.

Jeremy Bonderman looked like an outfielder brought in to pitch at the tail end of blow-out. However, even the Yankee’s utility-man Nick Swisher has a better K/9 this season than Bonderman.

After Jermaine Dye reached one single, Jim Thome hit his 553 round-tripper of his career and just like that, optimists were deflated, likelihood of winning was trampled, and the “return day” experiment seemed to be a monster failure for the Tigers… but amazing for the Sox.

Thome would get another RBI in the fifth – three RBI in two innings – after driving in Alexei Ramirez. With bases loaded in and still no one out in the inning Bonderman was finally lifted.

Zach Miner allowed one of those inherited runners to score on a Konerko bloop single.

Bonderman’s final line was: 4.0+ IP, 8H, 6R – all earned – 3BB, 1SO and three big home runs.

Contreras:

In the mean time Contreras was a great story. Tiger’s top hitting prospect Wilkin Ramirez expressed to Tigers beat writer Jason Beck, a few weeks ago, that Contreras was the best pitcher he had seen in AAA. He had been facing pitchers like Clay Buchholz – who threw a no hitter with the Boston Red Sox on September 1, 2007 – all season.

Contreras pitched to contact all night. He struck out three Tiger hitters in eight innings and all three came by way of swings and misses. He only allowed that one hit and one walk on the night. As great as Contreras looked, the Tigers looked equally bad.

Other than the Clete Thomas double and then a Marcus Thames homer to left in the ninth off of Matt Thorton, the first-place Tigers went hit-less.

When a pitcher is throwing to contact and working on his control, you would expect a couple hits to trickle through a hole somewhere. This simply didn’t happen however.

Notes:

Another big question with the Tigers game two effort was the fact that Miguel Cabrera was in the line-up. Marcus Thames went 1-3 with two walks in game one and is feeling healthy; while Cabrera has not even tried to run at full speed or move too quickly after a hamstring injury against Boston. Thames homer was a bit of a slap in the face after such a terrible performance by all the other Tiger hitters.

Congratulations to Jose Contreras on an amazing performance in Chicago.

The Detroit bullpen pitched very well. They only allowed two hits in the next four innings. But the damage had been done and the final score was 6-1 White Sox.

… And when at Comiskey/ US Cellular, don’t forget to get some chili-cheese fries from the Sauza Cantina behind the scoreboard… they are incredible.

Major League Baseball readies for the draft – and you can get updates in any number of ways, including Twitter (@MLBDraft).  The MLB.com site, for which I am a shameless plug (it’s a great site, really), will have updates and commentary.  And, MLB TV (if you have a premium cable outlet) will have wall-to-wall coverage on its flagship station.

Ultimately, the top question is whether or not the Nationals want Stephen Strasburg (they do – he throws 102 with pinpoint control of at least three pitches), and whether or not they can pay for him (Scott Boros is his agent).  Jerry Crasnick (ESPN) thinks this could be one of the great wars in Player/Team negotiations.

Having thought through this, I think the Nationals should sign him.  And, at that point, babying the investment goes out the window.  Strasburg gets three starts in the minors at AA and if he wins, he goes right into the rotation.  His contract should be based on major league innings – he cannot receive the full salary if he’s not on the major league roster.  Then, once Strasburg arrives, he gets USED and ABUSED.  He pitches every fourth game, and the Nationals get every inning humanly possible out of that arm.  I’d make him throw 300 innings by his third season - the Nationals need to get moving and in a hurry, there’s no need to treat him like a prospect – especially if he’s getting established player money.  He wants ace money, he walks in and pitches like an ace.  Or he doesn’t get paid.

I think that’s a fair trade.  If Strasburg wants every penny that the Nationals can afford to give, Strasburg has to give the Nationals every inning he can afford to give.

Additionally, if he FAILS – and the annals of draft history are paved with failure at the top pick – it could set back the amount of money given to hyped draft picks, which would be good for everyone involved.  Nobody, including Boros, will be able to ask for tens of millions and get it because of the “Strasburg incident.”

Josh Hamilton will have surgery to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle – no fun – but could be back after the all-star break.  In addition to the hole in the lineup, what fun will be the Home Run Derby without the guy who set the Derby on fire last season?  No matter who  plays, there will be a loss of production – sort of – no replacement will be as good as Hamilton was last year, but Hamilton has been more than ordinary so far this season fighting off injuries.  And, Hamilton really can’t cover centerfield as well as most centerfielders.

Texas is also losing starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy to a stress fracture in his throwing shoulder – the second time this has happened since 2007.  Taking McCarthy’s spot in the rotation for at least one turn will be Doug Mathis, a Texas farmhand who has decent control but not much of an out pitch.  He’s been lights out in Oklahoma City in his last four starts, though, so he’ll get a shot.  Mathis isn’t a BAD pitcher, but he was smacked around some in 2008.  And, he’s been hurt in the minors on at least two occasions.

Other DL trips include: Casey Kotchman (ATL), Calf; Eric Milton (LAD), Back; Luis Perdomo (SD), Knee.

On the Mend? Evan Longoria was back in the lineup for the Rays.  Hanley Ramirez plays through a sore groin for the Marlins, Miguel Cabrera is back for the Tigers.  Jose Contreras returned to the White Sox from Carolina.  Guys heading to rehab trips include: Khalil Greene (STL); Donald Veal (PIT); Pat Burrell (TB); Robinson Tejada (KC); Rich Harden (CHC) heads to Iowa.

Barry Bonds has another legal issue to deal with.  His wife filed separation papers; a divorce is imminent.

31-25, 1st in AL Central (4.0 GU on MIN)

(Photo courtesy of Duane Burleson/AP)

**FYI: Record has been updated to reflect the Tigers beating the White Sox in Game 1 of their doubleheader today. WOO!!!

So the last time we checked in with the Tigers, they had just been swept by the Red Sox, Jim Leyland got himself tossed from a game, the doubters were out in full force and the Los Angeles Orange County Angels of Anaheim and Surrounding Neighborhoods and Communities were on their way into town before the Tigers embarked on a week-and-a-half long road trip.

The Tigers needed to bounce back strongly and get some wins.

The answer started with Justin Verlander, who pitched another fantastic game in the opener, but got let down AGAIN by sub-par hitting from a mashed up lineup due to Miguel Cabrera’s hamstring injury. Verlander’s work was good enough to keep the team in the game, but Fernando Rodney came in and gave up a run, and with the sub-par hitting, that was enough for LAOCAASNC to escape with a 2-1 win.

Knocked down again.

But what do you do when you get knocked down? You get back up and punch that dude right in his mouth.

Detroit’s counter-punch? Edwin Jackson. The KO punch? Clete Thomas. (Clete Thomas?!?!)

Despite suffering from the same lack of run support that plagued Verlander, Jackson put the team on his back and just took over on Saturday night (and Rodney didn’t blow this one.) And on Sunday, Clete cleared the bases with a grand slam as the Tigers started to locate the offense.

KO delivered. Tigers take the series.

Look, the series win was important for the Tigers, despite being less than aesthetically appealing. The Tigers are in an interesting position where two to three games a week, they are going to get good/great pitching and then to to three games a week they will put up solid batting numbers. When those two line up, the Tigers win ball games. But the rest of it is a crapshoot.

I know Leyland is making an attempt to generate some offense by moving Curtis Granderson back up to the leadoff spot and adding in the newly rehabilitated Marcus Thames for some additional power. But I don’t think that is going to cure the inconsistencies of this team. The real trick for Jim is to find a way to start small with this team. This is NEVER going to happen, but they need to focus more on hitting for singles and sacrifices, and maybe even *GULP* the occasional bunt or two. Sacrilege, I know. Yes, the Tigers will always have power and yes, that power is a great thing, but yes, that power disappears from game to game and yes, if we stick to the power game for the entire season, we might finish somewhere around .500.

Anyways, it’s a thought. Maybe try it out one night when Verlander or Jackson is on the mound since nine games out of 10 you are going to get a top notch performance from them. I’m just sayin…

One last thing before we go: Jeremy Bonderman returns to the bump tonight finally. This could be interesting, as most of the folks that regularly cover the Tigers say that Bondo doesn’t have that “umph” back in his velocity, which means he should be less overpowering and more crafty.

Kenny Rogers, anyone?

On Deck: Chicago White Sox

• Record: 26-31 (3rd in AL Central, 5.5 GB of DET)

Monday, June 8 (DH)

Game 1

• Tigers – Armando Galarraga (3-6, 5.31 ERA, 41 SO)
• White Sox – Clayton Richard (2-1, 3.97 ERA, 34 SO) **Yes, THAT Clayton Richard. As in the Clayton Richard that used to be a backup on the Michigan football team. Whoa.

**Since the game is over and I already updated the records, here are the resulting lines for each guy. Joel Zumaya got the win for the Tigers, BTW. Rodney, the save.

• Galarraga: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 SO, No decision
• Richard: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 SO, No decision

Game 2

• Tigers – Jeremy Bonderman (0-0, –.—ERA, – SO)
• White Sox – Jose Contreras (0-5, 8.19 ERA, 17 SO)

Tuesday, June 9

• Tigers – Dontrelle Willis (1-3, 6.84 ERA, 13 SO)
• White Sox – Mark Buehrle (6-2, 2.91 ERA, 46 SO)

Wednesday, June 10

• Tigers – Justin Verlander (6-2, 3.26 ERA, 97 SO)
• White Sox – John Danks (4-4, 5.10 ERA, 54 SO)

Thursday, June 11

• Tigers – Edwin Jackson (6-3, 2.16 ERA, 62 SO)
• White Sox – Gavin Floyd (4-5, 5.35 ERA, 66 SO)

Over the weekend the Detroit Tigers played their 54th and 55th game of the season, effectively the 1/3 marker of the 2009 campaign. So once again today we’ll take a look at the highlights and lowlights so far, the teams ranks and grades and a few projections and predictions going forward. This feature will appear every 27 games, you can jump in the way back machine and read the 1/6 state of the Tigers here.

Overall Record — 30-25, 1st place in the AL Central

Team Batting Average — .264, tied for 9th in the AL, tied for 14th in MLB

Team ERA — 4.13, 2nd in the AL, 8th in MLB

All three of these indicators are more positive than at the 27 game mark. The team is five games above .500 with an ERA and batting average in the upper half of major league baseball. The Tigers 4.13 ERA is down from 4.16 at the 1/6 point, the .264 team batting average is up three points. Most importantly the Tigers have moved from 2nd place in the AL Central to having a 3.5 game lead.

Let’s look a little deeper:

Home Record — 17-11

Road Record — 13-14

Division Record — 11-9

This seems to be on pace with the 27 game numbers. Coincidentally the Tigers are 14-4 against the AL West, the best statistical record of any team in MLB against a single division not their own. Let’s go a little deeper yet:

Day Games — 15-5

Night Games — 15-20

One Run Games — 6-6

Last 10 Games — 4-6

Again the Tigers play exceptional baseball in the daytime, slightly below average at night. The 6-6 record in one run games concerns me, but it could be a lot worse. Now let’s break down the pitching a bit, shall we? We’ll start with the starting pitching stats *NOTE* I’ve included Zach Miner and his numbers in the bullpen statistics. He has had four starts on the year but has appeared in nine games in relief.

Starting Pitching:

22-19 record, 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 277 hits allowed, 105 walks issued, 249 strike outs in 307.2 innings pitched.

Very respectable on the surface. The K:BB ratio of the rotation sits at 2.5:1, 34 total home runs have been surrendered by the rotation (22 by Galarraga and Porcello) and the win total would equate to roughly 88 victories over a full season. Now let’s examine the bullpen.

Relief Pitching:

8-6 record, 4.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 182 hits allowed, 90 walks issued, 134 strike outs in 178.2 innings pitched.

I’m not impressed. Any bullpen that is allowing more than one and a half baserunners per inning is asking for trouble. Especially when you consider that often times managers go to the bullpen when the starting pitcher has put a man or two on base in that particular frame. The bullpen K:BB ratio is very low at 1.48:1, indicating that even with multiple power arms in reserve this ballclub does not have the control required to kill an opponents rally consistently. Both the starters and relievers allow a home run approximately every 9 innings pitched (1 per 9.05 for the starers, 1 per 9.40 for the bullpen). Now let’s move on to the offense.

Team Hitting:

VS. right-handed pitching — .258 (352 for 1362), 41 HR, 195 RBI’s, .329 OBP, .402 slugging %, .731 OPS, 137 BB, 252 strike outs.

VS. left-handed pitching — .281 (135 for 480), 15 HR, 67 RBI’s, .354 OBP, .443 slugging %, .797 OPS, 51 BB, 99 strike outs.

While the Tiger’s hit 23 points higher, slug 41 points higher and have an OPS advantage of 66 points against lefties these numbers can be deceiving. When you examine the ratios of at-bats per HR, RBI, K and walk the numbers are strikingly similar. The Tigers have hit one HR every 32 at-bats against lefties, one every 33.22 at-bats versus right handers. The team has one RBI per 7.16 at-bats against lefties, one every 6.98 at-bats against righties. In terms of strke outs and walks — the Tigers whiff once every 4.85 at-bats and walks once every 10.41 plate appearances against lefties, where as they fan once every 5.4 at-bats and walk once every 10.94 plate appearanced against right handers.

The Tigers have played with more balance in this regard over the last 27 games than the first 1/6 of the season. In the first 27 games the Tigers scored one run every 6 at-bats against right-handed pitching, one run every 7.6 at-bats against left handed pitching. That split after 55 games is now 6.58/6.87 respectively.

The offense has struggled in recent walks, regardless of which hand the opposing pitcher was using. In their last 15 games the Tigers have scored two runs or fewer seven times and three runs or fewer ten times — the team scored one run five times in that span, or in 1/3 of their last 15 games.

Now let’s take a look at the studs and duds so far.

The Pitching Studs:

Justin Verlander — He leads the major leagues in strike outs with 97, has a 3.26 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and a .233 batting average against. He hasn’t lost since April 17th and should have eight wins instead of six, had the bullpen been able to do their job.

Edwin Jackson — His 2.16 ERA is the 2nd best in the AL and the 3rd best in all of MLB. He boasts a WHIP of 0.98 and a strike out to walk ratio of more than three to one. Like Verlander, he should have more than his current total of six victories, but has lost out on multiple chances due to poor bullpen work and a lack of run support. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only twice in a dozen starts.

Rick Porcello — While the youngster has looked more hittable in his last two starts he still has an ERA of 3.98 and six victories through the first week of June. It’s fair to say he’s exceeded expectations to this point and shown signs of growth that are very encouraging.

The Pitching Duds:

Armando Galarraga/Dontrelle Willis — The back end of the rotation buddies are a collective 4-9 with ERA’s of 5.31 and 6.84 respectively. Armando has shown improvement in his last two starts, Willis was impressive in his second start of the season, but both have been wildly inconsistent and more often than not they have each been well below average pitchers. While I hope that Rick Knapp can fix this pair, he’s definitely got his work cut out for him.

Brandon Lyon — I’ve heard the cries that he’s overworked and overwhelmed, I’m not buying it. With the exception of one bizarre game where he threw 60 pitches his workload has been no more taxing than a pitcher of his experience and arm strength should be able to shoulder. In 23.2 innings over 19 appearances he’s 1-3, has an ERA of 5.70 and has 13 walks against 10 strike outs. Pathetic, plain and simple.

Zach Miner — I realize he’s been asked to fill several roles, that Miner has gone along with being moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back and forth like a lawn sprinkler, and that he has done it without much complaining. That’s nice. Someone give him a sticker, but certainly not as a reward for his performance. While his record may be 3-1 he is certainly not pitching that well. His 5.29 ERA and 1.82 WHIP are atrocious. He’s allowed 44 hits and 18 walks in 34 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .314 against him. He may have a rubber arm, but that doesn’t mean we should be seeing it at the major league level.

The Hitting Studs:

Miguel Cabrera — Among regulars he leads the team in batting average (.352), on-base % (.421), slugging % (.565) and OPS (.986). While Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson have more hom runs Cabrera leads the team in RBI’s and has a significantly better walk to strike out ratio (22 walks, 28 K’s) than either of them.

Brandon Inge — speaking of the little engine that could, Brandon has been an unexpected offensive star to this point. While his average has dipped from its’ high point in early May, he is still at .277, well above his career mark. His power numbers have been impressive, it seems his modified plate approach and patience are paying dividends.

Curtis Granderson — while his batting average has fallen to .264 he’s found more of a power stroke and has quietly stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts. He leads the team in runs scored (37), home runs (13) and is tied with Josh Anderson for the team lead in stolen bases. This is the beginning of Curtis Granderson, three hole hitter.

The Hitting Duds:

Placido Polanco — it kills me to put him on this list, but through 55 games “Polly” is hitting 52 points below his career average. His OBP is a dismal .302 and he’s provided little in the power department, which is to be expected. I believe he’ll get back on track soon, but at this point he’s been a disappointment.

Gerald Laird — a .234 average with two home runs and 14 RBI’s from a guy with 141 at-bats in this lineup is not exactly stellar. He’s playing above average defense and drawing walks (19 so far), but his bat has been slow and quiet.

Dane Sardinha — I know it’s mean to pick on both the starting and back-up catchers, but seriously, he’s hitting .115 with 13 strike outs in 26 at-bats. I’m fairly certain random fans pulled from the Comerica Park stands could put up these numbers.

The Grades:

Offense — C.  The Tigers have scored 277 runs to date. The league average in the AL is 274. They have scored the third most runs in their division, behind Cleveland and Minnesota, ahead of the White Sox and Royals. The Tigers rank 9th in the AL in batting average, 11th in hits, 9th in OPS, 8th in strike outs, 8th in walks and 8th in on-base %. Certainly sounds like a middle of the road, average set of numbers to me. In the last two weeks the Tigers offense has been offensive to watch, if you’ll pardon the pun.

Defense — B plus. The Tigers rank 3rd in the AL in fielding % (.988), 2nd in defensive efficiency (.705), have made the 3rd fewest errors and have turned 53 double plays, good for 5th in the league. Gerald Laird and Dane Sardinha have thrown out a combined 29% of attempted base stealers, which is tied for 5th in the AL. After some early struggles the defense has rebounded nicely. The youth and range in the outfield have helped the pitching staff more than their inexperience has hurt it. Brandon Inge is making highlight reel plays on a regular basis, Adam Everett and Placido Polanco seem to be playing well together and Miguel Cabrera is getting better every day.

Pitching — B minus. While Verlander and Jackson have been spectacular and Porcello has been a pleasant surprise, there are many question marks behind them. The back end of the rotation has been hit and miss, as has the bullpen. I contemplated grading lower here, but when considering that 40% of the rotation (Verlander and Jackson) are 10-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 104 K’s since May 1st, it just seemed a bit too harsh. The staff as a whole is a bit overrated and needs some tuning up, good thing I have faith in Rick Knapp.

Management — C. For every positive surprise there has been a negative reality. If I were grading Jim Leyland alone I would go higher, perhaps a B- based on how many veterans he’s been without and how many other veterans he surely wishes he was without. The organizational side is included here and frankly, I’m not pleased with Dave Dombrowski at this point. Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Guillen, Brandon Lyon and let’s not forget Gary Sheffield are on the payroll, with huge financail consequences, with very little if any positive impact to the team on the field. If this team aims to contend management will have to make changes, until it does the grade will stay in this general vicinity.

Overall — B minus. Yes, I realize this team has a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central. I also realize it is early June and that lead is thanks in large part to a pair of starting pitchers being unhittable for six weeks. If either Verlander or Jackson comes back to earth this team could sink like a stone. The defense is improved, the offense should get better and the bullpen is a crap-shoot. All in all while the team is atop the standings, they have played like a 4th place team many times this season. To be fair, there have been nights where this club could have beaten any other in the major leagues, but not nearly often enough. The Detroit Tigers are at a fork in the road,, in 27 more games we should have a good idea which path they’ll take on the home stretch.

Going forward — In the next 27 games the Tigers will face the following opponents: Chicago White Sox (4), Pittsburgh Pirates (3), St. Louis Cardinals (3), Milwaukee Brewers (3), Chicago Cubs (3), Houston Astros (3), Oakland A’s (3), Minnesota Twins (3) and the Kansas City Royals for 2 games, three total in that series. 19 of these games will be on the road, where the Tigers are one game under .500. The combined record of these opponents as of this morning is 246-258. Only three of these teams currently have a winning record, the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs.

In the last installment I predicted the Tigers would be 30-24 at the 54 game mark, turns out I was wrong, they were 29-25. After yesterdays victory in game 55 the Tigers are 30-25. I’ll take being off by one game. As the 81 game mark is the numerical half-way point of the season I’ll predict at that juncture the Tigers will be 44-37, meaning they will win 14 of their next 26 games.

Also in the 1/6 mark review I predicted Placido Polanco would pull out of this uncharacteristic funk and be hitting .300 by this point. Oops. Looks like I missed the boat entirely on that one, as his average has actually sunk to .252. I’m going to stick with a prediction of improvement here, although I don’t think he can add 48 points in 26 games. Instead I’ll say he’ll reach .300 by the 108 game mark, or 2/3 of the way through the season.

It should be an interesting month and change until the all-star break. From there the non-waiver trading deadline will sneak up on us and we’ll be in the middle of pennant race time before you know it. Here’s hoping the Tigers will be a part of all of these exciting events.

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Welcome to another installment of Five For Fighting, this time with a twist. While this segment normally covers all things fantasy baseball I’ve decided to throw a change-up here and devote this piece to talking about the Detroit Tigers. The premise remains the same – I trade five questions with a talented writer from the web and we post each others answers for you to debate.

Joining me this time is John Parent, better known as Big JP, from Always A Tiger. John is a devoted family man and Tigers fan from Ohio (don’t hold it against him) who brings an insightful and down to earth point of view to his coverage of the team he loves. Big thanks to John for taking the time to participate in this experiment. You can read his answers to my questions below and my answers to his questions here.

Now let’s get to it….

1 – Of the three young outfielders platooning for the Tigers at the moment (Josh Anderson, Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn) which, if any, do you believe have a long-term place on this team and why?

Raburn has the ability to play second base, and he is the emergency catcher, so he has the most versatility, but his skill set makes me think of him as more of a National League kind of player.  His offense has been unimpressive, though he shows occasional pop.  Plus he just turned 28 years old, so I’m not sure he improves much more and as a right handed hitter, I think there are players with significantly more potential in the minors. 

Anderson and Thomas share many qualities, both are LH hitters, both can play either corner spot.  While Thomas has shown himself to be a better defender, with a better arm, Anderson has great speed and has the ability to play CF. 

While Thomas may have more pop in hit bat, I’ll take Anderson long-term.  Thomas has shown that he is not a leadoff hitter, and I have been encouraged by what I’ve seen when Anderson does get a chance in that spot.  This team needs Curtis Granderson in the middle of the order, Anderson provides the best possible solution as a leadoff hitter.
 
2 – If you could go back in time knowing what you know now, would you convince Dave Dombrowski to keep Gary Sheffield?

The short answer is no.  Coming into camp this year, I had a good feeling about Sheffield, and felt he may have a good season.  That being said, the team had decided that a repeat of last season could not happen, and needed to add defense and flexibility to the lineup.  Jettisoning Sheffield provided a way to do both.  They already had another Sheffield type player on the roster in Marcus Thames, and the move would allow them to use the DH spot to keep Magglio and Guillen healthy, they thought. 

Obviously, things haven’t quite worked out that way.  Thames was never healthy and evidently neither was Guillen.  But you certainly couldn’t have anticipated that Sheffield would have stayed healthy, either.  And the way he was hitting in Lakeland did inspire much confidence.  While it hurts to waste all that money they are still paying him, they were able to add Anderson to give them a good LH bat with great speed. 

I think with the return of Thames, the offense will get at least as much help from him that they probably would have gotten from an unhappy Sheffield stuck DH-ing.  Sheffield doesn’t strikeout as much as Thames, but pop-ups don’t help alot, either.
 
3 – Who will have a more positive impact on the starting rotation going forward – Armando Galarraga or Jeremy Bonderman?

That question may hold the key to the rest of the Tigers’ season. 

There has been a lot of talk about the struggles of Galarraga recently, but let’s not forget he had similar struggles last May, as well.  He has shown signs of life in his last two starts, and while he may not be ultimately as good as his numbers were in April, I suspect he is not as bad as they were in May, either.  If he plays on a team with a better offense, I don’t think there would be so much worry about him, as he is basically a fourth starter, but with the offense struggling, you almost need your number four to be a fourth ace, which he is not. 

Bonderman has always had potential, but he has also always had a good fastball.  He is the real wild-card here.  If he has found a changeup, and can command his pitches, he can be a quality pitcher.  But he is being asked to learn how to pitch a different way than he ever has, and be good enough to consistently get major league hitters out.  I think that’s asking a whole lot.  I’m just not sure how much faith to put in a guy that never really lived up to his potential when he had electric stuff, now that that’s gone, how much can you expect from him? 

So with two guys who haven’t inspired much confidence, I hope the answer is Bonderman, but I think it’s probably Galarraga.
 
4 – How many wins do you think it will take for the Tigers to make the playoffs, and can this team win that many games as put together today?

Fortunately, they play in maybe the worst division in baseball, so that helps.  The only real threats I see are the Twins, barring a trade or two by Chicago.  Cleveland has zero pitching by anyone other than Pavano and Lee, and that includes the bullpen.  Kansas City probably has enough pitching to compete, but has little depth and are fading fast.  Zack Greinke has shown he’s human lately, and the Royals can’t afford him to be human. 

The WhiteSox have the homerun power, and always play well within the division, especially versus Detroit, but Floyd and Danks have come back to earth a bit this year, and they have several holes in the lineup.  Minnesota will win a bunch of games at home.  They are playing .500 ball right now, and really haven’t had the great pitching they are used to.  If they get the bullpen straightened out, they have the potential to take off and win the division going away. 

I think it will take 89 wins to take the Central, and I don’t  think this Tigers team can get there.  A lot of that will be based on how well guys like Bonderman and Willis perform the rest of the way.  Someone on this team has got to hit, though.  They cannot continue to flounder at the plate or they have no shot.  The flaws on this team are glaring.  They have no backup catcher, and are in dire need of a productive corner outfielder.  Thomas is a nice player, but he isn’t the answer.  If the Tigers want a real shot at playing in October, they have to make a move. 

I anticipate a trade or two to clear some excess staring pitching (Miner and/or Galarraga) and to bring back a LH bat that can play OF.  If they do that, and add a backup catcher, they can get there.  If not, I don’t see how they can hold off the Twins.
 
5 – What’s it like being a Tigers fan living in Ohio? Do you root for Ohio teams in other sports or is it all Michigan?

I follow the Tigers because that’s how I was raised.  My Grandpa was born in Detroit and it was he and my Dad that taught me about baseball.  I loved listening to Ernie Harwell on WJR, which came in loud and clear down here.  Ohio is full of Ohio State fans.  Those same people are fans of the Indians and Browns.  In my family, however, it always always a good day when those teams lost. 

I fell in love with the Tigers thanks to my family, but I also follow Penn State, the Houston Rockets, and was a huge fan of the Houston Oilers.  I came to those teams on my own.  In large part because I have found Ohio fans to be some of the most obtuse fans I have ever encountered.  If their team is lousy, they will never admit it, and if it’s suggested that there could be improvement, then you must not be a real fan.  That is a poor line of thinking.  I don’t see a problem with recognizing when your team has flaws, it doesn’t make you a bad fan, it makes you reasonable. 

 There was a line in the movie “As Good as it Gets” when Jack Nicholson’s character (a writer) was asked how he wrote the female characters in his books so accurately.  His response fits well in describing Ohio fans.  He said, “I think of a man, and then I take away reason and accountability”.  It might make me unpopular in sports bars, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

-end-

So there you have it. Big thanks again to John for giving his time to opine. Make sure you check out his blog Always A Tiger, and feel free to browse the other half of this segment here.

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Are you a baseball blogger interested in being a part of a future five for fighting segment? Are you lonely and have access to obscure baseball statistics? leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Every season is a different season, however there are trends in baseball. So today we’ll take a look at the career split stats for the current group of Detroit Tigers for the month of June and see at least on some level, what we might expect.

Let’s start with the hitters. As you would expect Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco lead the pack in most categories, as they have the most at-bats in the month of June historically. There are some surprises though, such as Marcus Thames having the highest slugging percentage of any current Tiger for the month of June. I’ve excluded Wilkin Ramirez and Matt Treanor as Ramirez has zero career June AB’s and Treanor will definitely not be playing this month. I included Guillen and Thames as both could return this month. Leaders are in bold text.

Several Tigers have seen their highest single month batting average numbers in June, including Adam Everett (.269), Maggs (.342), Curtis Granderson (.323) and Gerald Laird (.310), the only month Laird has ever hit .300 or better. Placido Polanco hits in June better than any month save August and has more RBI’s and runs scored in June than any other month of the season. Marcus Thames has hit more home runs in June (22) than any other month. The news isn’t all good though, as Carlos Guillen’s June batting average (.278) and OBP (.349) are the lowest and 2nd lowest of any month of his career historically.

It’s hard to discern any realiable data from Ryan Raburn, Jeff Larish, Clete Thomas, Josh Anderson and Dane Sardinha from this exercise as none of them have more than 33 career at-bats in June. Thomas is 10 for 23 in June and Anderson is 6 for 19, good starts I suppose.

Based on his play so far this season I would expect Ramon Santiago to considerably outpace his .208 career June average. Miguel Cabrera is a .302 hitter in June with an .888 OPS – I expect he’ll be even better this time around. Placido Polanco will need another strong June effort to get his 2009 average back in the neighborhood we are accustomed to.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers. I have excluded Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry for the obvious reason, no career June MLB experience. I included Jeremy Bonderman as I expect he’ll be back, in some capacity, soon. Leaders and worst offenders (depending on category) are in bold.

Dontrelle paces the team in Wins, hits allowed and walks allowed, largely on the strength of the 194.1 innings he’s thrown, the most of any Tiger in the month of June.  Joel Zumaya owns the best June ERA (1.74), although over a much smaller sample of 20.2 innings pitched. Brandon Lyon has mediocre June numbers to put it gently, something that will need to change if the Tig’s hope to stay in contention. Note that the struggling Armando Galarraga boasts a 3.34 June ERA, something that will need to fall in line if he hopes to stay in the rotation going forward.

Who would have guessed that Nate Robertson had a 10-5 June record with a 3.71 ERA and a K:BB ratio of better than 2 to 1? Not me, but alas it’s true, historically speaking. In the case of Edwin Jackson we can only hope his dazzling ‘09 start leaves his previous June disasters behind.

So there you have it, the associated split statistics for the Detroit Tigers in the month of June. Some of these numbers are encouraging, some worrisome, others likely irrelevant considering the development players have seen and the current roles on the ball club.

Until next time kiddies….

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

With Randy Johnson going for win #300 this week and Jamie Moyer winning #250 tonight, I wondered what the chances were of finding who was next. There aren’t a lot of guys who are close. Mike Mussina would have been next to 300, but he retired at 40 with 270. He would have had a fighting chance, but admittedly, he was running on a lot of guile and luck and three more years of success might have been a lot to ask for.

I’ll do them by age groups.

Over 40: Jamie Moyer would have to win 50 games more to join Johnson and that means pitching until he’s 50. I think he was lucky to get a two year deal and will not make 270, much less 275. John Smoltz has the goods but an arm that is running out of bullets. And, he’s 90 short when he finally makes it back. That’s six years from now when he’ll be 48. Not likely.

Born in 1970 – 1972: Pedro Martinez has 214 and no job, so it’s hard to see that he’ll make it. Besides, he’s not the same guy and his health hasn’t been solid lately. A year younger and still winning is Andy Pettitte, who turns 37 in a few weeks. He keeps threatening to retire, so that doesn’t bode well, but he has 215 wins, so six good years and he’s got a shot. Let’s see what he’s like two years from now and guess again.

Born 1973 – 1976: Derek Lowe has 126, Bartolo Colon has 150. Only Lowe is still going strong, but 170 wins means 10 really good seasons and he doesn’t usually win 17. Kevin Millwood is at 142, turns 35 on Christmas Eve. He’s probably going to make 200 if he stays healthy, but I doubt it.

Tim Hudson and Livan Hernandez are at 146 and 147, but only Hudson seems young at 34. Livan always seemed six years older than he is. Hudson, if he finds a second life, could make a run at 250 but would need a few really successful seasons. Javier Vasquez turns 33 this year, has always been healthy, and has 127 wins. He could make a run at 250, but he could use some help. He’s never won 20, so if he gets there, it’s by attrition.

Born 1977 – 1979: Roy Halliday (131) and Roy Oswalt (129) are 32 this summer. They’ll likely be around 145, hopefully more, by the end of the year. If it’s 150, eight more good years could get them to 270 and then it’s a matter of knowing how healthy either is at 40. My money will be on Halliday.

Barry Zito leads the 31 year olds with 123 wins. If he finds a new life – certainly possible, he could easily make a run at 250. And, if he has a Moyer resurgence, he could get further. I just don’t know if he’ll make it.

The guys who are 30 in 2009 include Mark Buehrle and Johan Santana. Guess who has more wins? If you guessed the Southsider, you’d be right. Buehrle has 122 and at this rate is well on pace for 250 by 40. If this year’s start is indicative of better things to come, he’d have a legitimate shot at 300. Santana is the better pitcher, but only has 109 wins. He’s going to need about five really good years to pass Buehrle and get on track. I like 250 as his end point, but you never know.

Born 1980 – 1984: Sabathia is already at 117 and counting. With the Yankees, he’s going to be a candidate for 20 wins a lot and if he stays healthy he could hit 35 with more than 225 wins. He’s my top pick to make 300 next. Josh Beckett has 89 wins, and should make 200, but won’t get much past it.

Carlos Zambrano turns 28 on 6/1 and already has 100 wins. He’s ahead of Halliday’s pace and is a horse. I like his chances to blow through 250 and if he stays healthy and doesn’t get too fat, he could make a run at 300. Jake Peavy is also 28 this year, but ten wins behind Zambrano. I like his chances at 250, but I’d like them better if he were on good teams.

The big winners of the 1982 birth year are Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman, neither of whom will be active in 2015. Justin Verlander has 50 wins and will be around 60 when the year is done. He could be around 200 at age 36, so 250 is not impossible. He COULD be really good, but I don’t buy it.

The guys who are 24 or 25 include too many guys with just 30 wins – Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, and what not. Three really good years, though, and I’ll think about it.

The one really young guy who is off to a good start is the 23 year old Felix Hernandez. He’s blown by 40 wins and should make 55 at the end of the year. Assuming any luck in good health and good teams, he could easily pass 100 wins by 27, which would make him well prepared for a run at 250 or more.

In sum:

SOLID BETS: Sabathia, Halliday, Zambrano
GOOD BETS: Buehrle, Zito, Verlander, Hernandez
LONG SHOTS: Anyone who is 25.
NO SHOTS: Everyone else.

I’d say that ONE of the guys listed here will make 300, and maybe two.

Tigers fans who were around 41 years ago remember the key component of the 1968 teams success – pitching. Tigers fans not yet born have heard the stories from their fathers, from Ernie Harwell, from baseball writers and bartenders, fans and fanatics.

The ‘68 Tigers won 103 games on the strength of the best ERA in the American League, 2.71. Denny McClain won 31 games and struck 280. Mickey Lolich won 17 and fanned 197. Earl Wilson and Joe Sparma combined for 23 wins and 278 strike outs, helping the Tigers set a team record for most K’s in a season. The record has stood for more than 40 years, and is in danger of falling.

Through 45 games the 2009 Tigers pitching staff has struck out 326 batters in 398 and 1/3 innings pitched. That’s a rate of 7.24 per game, that makes for a projected season total of 1,173 punch outs which would eclipse the record of 1,115 set by that great ‘68 squad.

The bullpen has contributed 115 K’s while the starting rotation has notched 211 whiffs. I’ve included Zach Miner and his numbers in the bullpen count.

While the 2009 team is far off the 2.71 ERA pace of the 1968 bunch, the current group also leads the American League in the category with a team ERA of 3.86. This years Motor City Kitties also pace the AL in shutouts (six), fewest hits allowed (373) and fewest earned runs allowed (171). The Tigers rank 2nd in the league in WHIP (1.33) and opponents batting average (.318).

Not bad for a team that only weeks ago was barely a .500 club with Justin Verlander struggling and Dontrelle Willis in the minor leagues.

Verlander has lead the resurrection, going 5-0 with an ERA of 0.80, a WHIP of 0.85 and 60 strike outs in 42 and 1/3 innings pitched in the last month. Edwin Jackson is 4-3 overall (he should be 6-2) with a 2.58 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 50 K’s in 66 and 1/3 innings of work. Rookie Rick Porcello collected his 6th win today and boasts and ERA/WHIP split of 3.48/1.20 with 32 K’s in 51 and 1/3.

With Dontrelle Willis rising like a phoenix and the potential return of Jeremy Bonderman it’s getting easier each day to believe this rotation could be pitching in the playoffs this season. If Armando Galarraga can find the form that made him the defacto ace of the staff in 2008 and the first few weeks of 2009, things could get pretty scary for opposing hitters come September and beyond.

For the first time in several years the trade deadline will come and go without much talk of the Tigers need to acquire a starting pitcher. The bullpen may be ripe for a targeted edition, but the rotation seems well under control, at least for now.

There is a pile of baseball left to play. A lot can happen in the next four months, in the next four weeks, in the next four games – but as of today the Detroit Tigers are setting the standard for pitching among American League squads, and chasing the ghost of the 1968 Tigers and their strikeout record in the process.

So keep your eyes on the mound, and the record book going forward, you just might see something spectacular appear in both places.

Hazaa

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com