Sunday, April 12, 2009

BALTIMORE — The Orioles managed to take two of three from the American League champion Tampa Bay Rays, thanks mostly to Adam Jones’ big three-run blast.

The 5-4 win came late, with Jones smashing a seventh-inning home run to pull the O’s ahead. He capped a tough comeback, as Baltimore scratched two runs off Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza. A sacrifice fly and RBI single was all they reeled out of the righty.

Brian Roberts had one of the RBI, part of a three-hit game. Melvin Mora had two hits, and the O’s had 10 in total, but most times they mounted a rally, Garza killed them quickly.

Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie had a better outing than his first, but still struggled at times. He surrendered three runs in six innings, allowing merely three hits but walking two. He struck out five. If anything, he seems to be gaining his form.

Chris Ray allowed a fourth run, making way for Danys Baez, who walked three in 0.2 frames. Jim Johnson cleaned up the mess with a sparkling two outs in the eighth. And coming back from a tough blown save, George Sherrill closed the door and received his second save of the season.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Tampa Bay Rays (4-1) at Baltimore Orioles (2-3)
1:05 p.m. at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Md.
Matt Garza (0-0, 6.00 ERA) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (0-1, 18.00 ERA)

Jeremy Guthrie was not strong in his first 2009 start; he’ll have his say again when he faces the American League champions Sunday afternoon.

With the bats cold on Saturday, a few small changes have been made to the batting order. Robby Hammock will go behind the plate, but Gregg Zaun will stay on board as designated hitter against the righty Matt Garza. Luke Scott moves to left field and Ryan Freel will sit.

Orioles
2B Brian Roberts
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
3B Melvin Mora
1B Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
DH Gregg Zaun
C Robby Hammock
SS Cesar Izturis

First of all, I love FanGraphs, and I use it on almost a daily basis for baseball analysis, stat projection, etc. I am also pretty much a believer in WAR, though the weighting of fielding value looks like it could be toned down a bit. But in discussions, when I invoke player values based on wins above replacement, I invariably get snide remarks back, asking if Ben Zobrist really was worth more than Albert Pujols this year, and if Zack Greinke (or any single player) could possibly be worth $42M to a team. People ask, how do you determine “replacement”? I don’t think I can tackle all of these issues at once here, but I would like to at least tackle the dollar values, and see how they hold up.

How much do teams value a win?

The calculated value of $4.5M for the 2008 offseason always seemed sort of high to me. Thus it is that Jeremy Guthrie can pitch 200 innings of 5.04 ERA baseball and still be worth $5M to the Orioles. Seemingly they could have signed Paul Byrd or someone else to do the same job for much less money, or maybe they could have given a bunch of Triple-A guys a shot and stuck with whoever did the best for minimum wage. Here’s another bothersome point: if an average positional starter is worth about 2 WAR, then that average player on the free agent market should be worth about $9/year, and I’m not sure I see that in practice.

Rather than extrapolate a value from league totals, I decided to play around with the 88 signed FA contracts from 2008 worth $1M or more to see if we could see anything using the data. I divided the average annual value of each contract by an expected WAR (xWAR) number based on the three previous seasons, injury considerations, etc. Sample size is an issue, and there is a bit of fudging with the expected wins, to be sure. We all know that teams don’t use WAR or any other standard system to evaluate players (certainly the Royals don’t!), so there is an assumption there. But with a bit of hand waving, smoke and mirrors, there should be some rough correlation, right? It turns out that the average annual salary per expected WAR came out to only $3.3M.

Linearity in the formula

Even if we adjust the value per WAR down a bit, there’s another problem. It has never really sat well with me that the current method for free agent valuation based on WAR is linear. Dave Cameron insists that the scale is indeed linear in practice, but I’m not sold on that. There are in reality a number of factors which likely play into how much a team pays per win. Is it really true that the difference between a +6 WAR player (Chone Figgins) and a +5 WAR player (Mark Teixeira) is $4.5M, while a 2.2 WAR guy (Nick Markakis) is only worth $4.5M than a 1.2 WAR guy (Jason Kendall)? That’s not a slam dunk to me.

Paying more for more expected wins. A linear correlation of dollars per win with xWAR does show an increasing trend; the correlation is really low, but you have to add about $85k for each WAR above average, due to the scarcity of players that can perform at higher levels. Of course, this correlative model is not completely right, as a player worth 0 WAR should not make $3.1M, but rather $350k, the ML minimum.

Size matters. On contracts with a higher average annual value (AAV), players could expect a higher dollar per xWAR. This probably just correlates with xWAR for the most part. You have to pay premium prices for premium players.

Pitchers versus position players. Pitchers were paid an average of $3.6M per xWAR, while position players were given much lower contracts in general, averaging $2.9M per xWAR. Thus it makes sense to stockpile pitching in the current baseball market to avoid paying a premium on the free agent market.

Size of market effects. Big market teams are able to spend more per win than smaller market teams, and some teams are just better at talent evaluation and contract efficiency. Out of the 88 contracts I looked at, big markets (BOS, DET, LAD, NYM, NYY) spent $3.5M per expected win, while small market teams (ARI, COL, KC, MIL, MIN, OAK, TB, WAS) spent only $3M per win. Other teams fell in the middle of this range, at $3.26M per WAR.

Age as a factor. Teams tend to hedge their bets with older and more fragile players, paying less guaranteed money and utilizing contract incentives. Taking into account contract incentives which were paid out, I found that on average, each additional year cost free agents just over $40k/xWAR. The average 30-year old could expect to get about $3.4M/xWAR, while a 40-year old would expect about $400k less per WAR.

Summary

This is not meant to be an end-all study by any means. It’s really meant more to continue the discussion on factors that may affect the size of free agent contracts. The next step is to estimate what current free agents might sign for this offseason.

Matt Holliday, OF. Brighter heads than mine have estimated Holliday’s “true talent” value to be about 4.3 WAR next year. Assuming he signs with a big market club, that translates to a average annual value of $15.1M, resulting in a 5/76 or 6/91 deal. That would be fair; throw in the premium for high-level talent, Scott Boras and a bidding war, and Holliday will likely earn something like 5/100 or 6/120. Estimate that he loses about 10% of that WAR total per year, and over a 5-year deal, he’s worth some 18 WAR or 20.5 WAR on a 6-year deal.

John Lackey, SP. The top starter on the market, Lackey is solidly worth somewhere slightly north of 3.5 WAR. Let’s call it 3.6 WAR. Given his status and age, he might expect to sign for an AAV of $13.4M. That would translate to 4/54 or 5/67. That would be a fair contract, given last year’s numbers; again, he’ll likely get a premium over that, especially given A.J. Burnett’s contract last year.

Monday, April 6, 2009

BALTIMORE — The Yankees new offense stormed into Camden Yards on opening day, leaving nothing behind but a few fragments of Jeremy Guthrie’s talents. The New Yorkers won, 11-5.

The Orioles made it fun, however, with Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Nick Markakis smashed home runs off starter CC Sabathia. Markakis had the big blow — a two-run bomb that drove the O’s within three. Then Hideki Matsui hit the plate again.

Already with a home run off Guthrie (4 IP, 8 ER), Matsui knocked his second off Troy Patton, who worked an emergency three innings of otherwise pretty-good baseball as a reliever. He’s still in line to start fifth in the rotation; this was his normal day of pitching.

Dennis Sarfate and Danys Baez each worked an inning, with Sarfate allowing a run. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon also homered off Orioles pitching.

Monday, April 6, 2009

New York Yankees (0-0) at Baltimore Orioles (0-0)
1:05 p.m. at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Md.
CC Sabathia (0-0) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (0-0)

Jeremy Guthrie gets the opening day start for the Orioles as they face the Yankees. A few small changes to the regular batting order: Ryan Freel gets the opening day start in left field; Luke Scott is the designated hitter; Melvin Mora will bat cleanup. Here’s the order:

Orioles
2B Brian Roberts
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
3B Melvin Mora
1B Aubrey Huff
DH Luke Scott
C Gregg Zaun
SS Cesar Izturis
LF Ryan Freel

In a move that comes as a little bit of a surprise, the Baltimore Orioles will pick up manager Dave Trembley’s option for 2010. This means Trembley will be back to manager the Orioles.

Trembley will be back in 2010

I say the move is a little suprising because the Orioles have played so bad down the stretch (they have 13 out of 15), there would be pressure on GM Andy MacPhail to replace Trembley.

But according to Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com, Trembley hasn’t lost the clubhouse and has the respect of his players such as Jeremy Guthrie.

“Every manager is a leader and someone that sets a tone,” Guthrie said. “He gets a team through the tough times. He’s done a tremendous job, Dave cares about us and first and foremost, as a player, that’s what you have to have.”

I think managers in the American League and the National League should be judged differently. In the AL, because of the DH a manager is judged on how he manages the clubhouse, not so much on X’s and O’s.

Let’s face it, in an AL game how many tough decisions does a manager have to make? One? Maybe two? And even those decisions, the average baseball fan could probably make.

In the NL, not only do you have to manage the clubhouse, but because of the pitcher hitting, you have to manage the X’s and the O’s as well. If you can’t manage the X’s and O’s of the game, you will be exposed very quickly.

That being said,  if Trembley still has the clubhouse, then he deserves another shot to manage the Orioles again. However, he is going to have to start winning some games.

With a great young offensive core of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matusz — expectations will be up in Baltimore in 2010.

If the Orioles don’t have a respectable record in 2010, it won’t matter how much the players like Trembley — he won’t be back in 2011.

“We’re so bad right now that for us back-to-back home runs means one today and another one tomorrow.” Earl Weaver

Michael Aubrey has Been a Bright Spot for the Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles tied this season’s American League losing streak at 11 games, well make that broke it with at 12 games tonight.  However do not fear the Orioles cannot break their own team record losing streak unless they lose out and begin next year on a losing skid. Since the Orioles lost the first 21 games of the 1988 season and there are only 5 games left the worst that can happen are 17 straight losses.  Since I have made a significant investment in team gear such as jerseys, t-shirts, hats and cell phone holders I do hope that this does not continue.  The last time the Orioles won a game was back on September 16^th.  In every case they have found interesting if not painful ways to lose.  There have been blow outs, and there have been meltdowns.  Recently the O’s have taken to getting lots of hits and base runners and on occasion score a decent amount of runs but leaving lots of men on base.  The result of course is when the pitching melted down the opposing team ended up outscoring the O’s.

Going into the month the O’s were well over 20 games behind the Yankees, so the remainder of the season was pretty much in the tank.  A number of things contributed to the September collapse which was very much like the August collapse of the O’s AAA affiliate the Norfolk Tides. The Orioles are a team that has struggled in part due to injuries of key personnel as well as trades, just as the Tides were impacted by call-ups and injuries.  The injuries have included All Star outfielder Adam Jones as well as Rookie of the Year contender Nolan Reimold and starting pitcher Brad Bergeson.  Trades included closer George Sherrill and Designated Hitter Aubrey Huff and pinch hitter deluxe Oscar Salazar.

Alberto Castillo is Showing Promise as a Reliever

As the season has drawn to a close the team has made some moves that although prudent for the health and future of some of their young prospects.  Several pitchers had reached the number of innings that the club wanted them to achieve during the season including Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz.  Nolan Reimold as mentioned is injured but was playing injured most of the year and finally elected to have surgery on his frayed hamstring.

Until the last 12 games the O’s had one of the better team batting averages in the league but during this losing streak the team average has dropped significantly, especially in situations with runners on base or in scoring position.   Pitching has been hard to come by and even fielding has not been always impressive.  Even when starters have a good game going the relief staff has not been able to do the job resulting in a number of losses during this streak.  It is like Earl Weaver said “The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers.”  The Orioles are not getting much of anything right now.

Jeff Fiorentino seen here Hitting a Home Run off of Bartolo Colon should find a Home in the Majors

In spite of this there is reason to hope and there are some bright spots on the Orioles roster.  Nolan Reimold and Brad Bergeson show great potential as does catcher Matt Wieters who has steadily gained confidence behind the plate and at bat.  Others are showing signs that they could become productive members of the team for the next several years.  Michael Aubrey at 1^st Base has been quite consistent and may be in the process of winning a spot on next year’s active roster.  Rookie pitchers Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz show great potential and reliever Alberto Castillo has done very well in his relief appearances since coming up this month.  Among the veterans Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Luke Scott should be back and Jeremy Guthrie after a horrible start has began to get himself into his old form. Melvin Mora and Felix Pie should be back as well. If the pitching staff gets healthy and Tillman and Matusz pitch to the level expected the Orioles have a chance of at least being competitive next year even though I think that challenging the Yankees and Red Sox is a couple years off.

The Orioles have some very good prospects as well as rookies that I have not mentioned including pitchers David Hernandez, Jeff George and relievers Kam Mikalio and Jim Miller.  There are also a number of position players such as infielder Brandon Snyder and utility man Brandon Pinckney who could find themselves on the team at some point.

One player that I have not mentioned who should stay in the majors is outfielder Jeff Fiorentino.  Jeff has done very well since his call up however his comparative lack of power at the plate, despite being a great hitter in being able to get on base combined with the O’s outfield depth may mean that he has no place on this team.  With his speed, fielding ability, steadiness at the plate and all round hustle he needs to stay in the majors even if not on the O’s.  A place that might work for Jeff might be in San Francisco where in a park not geared for power his ability as a situational hitter would help the team.  Likewise his speed and fielding abilities would also be a good fit in the large outfield expanse at AT&T Park.

The one spot that I think that the team needs a change is the Field Manager Dave Trembley.  Trembley seems to be a good teacher but is not terribly inspirational.  Admittedly he began the year with a weak squad but something is not working and I do like his calm, but I wonder if the teams needs fire rather than calm right now.  My choice would be for the O’s to make a serious offer for Bobby Valentine now that he has returned from Japan.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

Are you too lazy to read an entire game recap? Do you find yourself looking for something more than a boxscore, but less than a novel? Or are you just tired of waiting until the morning’s paper to find out that your favorite team lost yet again? If you said yes to any of the above, then you’ve come to the right place! Viva la Vidro presents its first (and possibly last, depending on the author’s motivation level) edition of the Sunday Night Spread, a look at each game in the majors in 50 words or less. Dig in!

Cleveland 3 Minnesota 1: David Huff the Magic Dragon becomes the major’s least deserving 9-game winner after allowing 1 run in 7 innings against the Twinkies to lower his Carlos Silva-esque ERA to 6.23. Somewhere off in the distance, Matt Cain’s 2007 and 2008 seasons are weeping.

Toronto 14 New York Yankees 8: Canada’s dominance over America continues as the Jays pound out 15 hits and capitalize on four Yankee errors (undoubtedly all by Jeter) to win by a touchdown (extra-point was wide right). The real loser was Randy Ruiz’s face; not a good time to play baseball if you have a head.

New York Mets 4 Chicago Cubs 2: Two teams that were supposed to be good but actually suck squared off in a game that no one cared about. The Mets got four RBIs from Daniel Murphy, currently owned in 1.7% of fantasy baseball leagues, after tonight.

Cincinnati 4 Atlanta 2: The Braves continue to fade faster than Lindsay Lohan’s career as Cincinnati takes the lead on a hit-by-pitch of the opposing pitcher, go figure. Drew Stubbs falls a double short of the cycle, but if no one outside of Ohio notices, did it really happen?

Baltimore 7 Texas 0: Baseball’s best pitching Mormon, Jeremy Guthrie, six-hits the potent Rangers’ offense over 7 innings as the ghost of Brigham Young cheers him on from behind home plate. Texas falls 3 back in the AL Wild Card chase.

Washington 5 Florida 4: The Nationals would be the best team in baseball if they could reverse their record (47-90), but that’s not allowed till after Labor Day, so Washington had to settle for a walk-off dinger from Ryan Zimmerman.

Pittsburgh 6 St. Louis 5: Pujols homers (again), but Ryan Franklin and his goatee blow the save in the 9th against the suddenly scorching Pirates (currently riding a one-game winning streak). See, GM Neal Huntington knew what he was doing all along (what, why’s everyone laughing?)

Detroit 5 Tampa Bay 3: 40-year-old Russ Springer celebrates receiving his first social security check by coughing up a go-ahead grand slam to Brandon Inge in the 9th. The good news is he still gets 15% off at the Old Country Buffet.

Boston 6 Chicago White Sox 1: In yet another lesson why you don’t mix colors with whites, the Red Sox topped their pseudo-rival White Sox behind 7 shutout innings from Jon Lester in a game that had everyone seeing pink by the end. Use Oxi Clean, or just don’t wash ‘em at all.

Milwaukee 2 San Francisco 1: America’s fattest favorite vegan came through with a game-winning homerun in the 12th and then proceeded to eat 27 pounds of Rice-A-Roni in mock tribute to San Fransisco’s favorite treat. This could get ugly the next time these two teams meet, likely in the World Series.

Houston 4 Philadelphia 3: The Phillies lose and Brad Lidge isn’t to blame? Cole Hamels gave up 4 runs in 6 innings, and Miguel Tejada went 4-4 for the Astros after a hearty portion of “b-vitamins” with his breakfast.

L.A. Angels 7 Kansas City 2: Former Mariners Yuniesky Betancourt and Willy Bloomquist each went 1-4, but it just wasn’t enough as the mighty Halos rode 5 innings of 10-hit ball from Joe Saunders to their 81st win.

Colorado 13 Arizona 5: The humidifier seems to be broke again in Colorado, as the Rockies and Diamondbacks combined for 8 HRs, three of which came from .198 hitter Chris Young. We can build on this Diamondback fans!

Oakland 5 Seattle 2: Fister’s got a blister, but besides that fun rhyme the M’s didn’t enjoy themselves much in Oakland, as the A’s used a 7th inning grand slam from Scott Hairston to cruise to a win. Ichiro collects career hit 2,000 in America, next stop: the moon?

San Diego 4 L.A. Dodgers 3: The freeway series? The smog series? The dear God our state is going to get annexed from the union series? The Padres are almost as bad as California’s economy, but they gutted out a win against division foe L.A. as Adrian Gonzalez hits his 35th HR. The Dodger’s lead is down to 3.5 games in the NL West.

We’re back to two and a half games out.  Lester did not take the win.  Lester did not have a great outing.  So much for the invincible one-two punch; rest assured Theo Epstein is taking notice.  Yes, we need another big bat, but another big bat won’t make a spot of difference if our pitcher can’t hold on to the lead he built.  Lester pitched an out shy of six innings and gave up four runs on seven hits.  If he’d given up four runs in seven innings, or if he’d given up only one or two runs in five and two thirds, we could interpret it differently.  But he did the two things a starting pitcher isn’t supposed to do, especially after the bullpen has had a long and rough past few days: leave early and be porous.  The sad part is that he was only porous for one inning, but it was a pretty ugly inning if you ask me.  He was lights-out through five, gave up four runs in the sixth, and made way for Delcarmen who gave up the fifth run before finally ending the inning.  And Lester took 104 pitches to do it.  I’m not a fan.  If you’re the number two starter, you can’t be having outings like that in almost-August.  If we didn’t have the best bullpen in the Majors (even with their occasional implosions), this would be an extraordinarily major cause for concern.

Speaking of the best bullpen in the Majors, Delcarmen got a win, Bard got a hold, and Paps got a save.  A seventeen-pitch effort.  But apparently you have to start from somewhere.

The final score was 8-5.  They scored one run less last night than we did the night before.  I’d call that bitter medicine.  Depending on who you talk to.  It was pretty sweet for me.  Ellsbury was caught stealing and picked off.  That was pretty much the only low point.  That and Pedroia went hitless.  But Ellsbury did make another beautiful catch, this one on the forward dive.  And Youk went two for four, Bay walked twice, Lowell batted in a run, and Drew went two for three.  Tek had an absolutely monster night, probably the best night at the plate he’s had all season.  Three for three with a run and three RBIs.  Mr. Clutch, as it were.  A single with the bases loaded, a single with a man on third, and a double with a man on second.  He batted in a run with every hit.  That’s impressive.  Did I mention he’s thirty-seven?

And last but not least, David Ortiz went two for three with two runs and three RBIs.  Including a three-run monster shot with two out in the seventh inning.  There was absolutely no chance that this ball was staying inside the park.  No chance whatsoever.  It was gone as soon as it left the bat.

That was a good game for us, despite Oakland’s four-run sixth, so I’ll take it.  We’re off to Baltimore, and Smoltz will take on Jeremy Guthrie.  We need this win.  At this point, we need every win we can get.  Smoltz needs to get himself back on track.  We said the goal was to peak late.  August is almost upon us; this is when the peaking has to start.  That’s all I’m saying.

Boston Globe Staff/Jim Davis

Newly acquired Adam LaRoche was all smiles after slugging his first home-run with the Boston Red Sox in their victory over the Baltimore Orioles. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

After flying out twice and grounding out in his first three at-bats as a member of the Boston Red Sox, left-handed first baseman Adam LaRoche officially became a member of the team and a fan favorite in the eighth inning. Mike Lowell led off the frame with a single against Mark Hendrickson to set the scene for LaRoche. The ex-Pittsburgh Pirate, an excellent hitter to the opposite field, which made him so enticing to the Red Sox, drove a first-pitch fastball high to left-field. LaRoche, used to clearing a 10-foot high wall at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, hit the ball just high enough to clear the 37-foot Green Monster.

The Fenway crowd rose immediately as one, and clapped in unison as he rounded the bases. As he tapped home-plate and slapped hands with Lowell, the crowd serenaded him with boisterous cheers. Welcome to Boston, Mr. LaRoche.

Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester struck out two of the first three hitters he faced, an opening inning similar to his next six.

His offense gave him all the insurance he needed in the bottom of the frame, making his outing that much more comfortable.

Dustin Pedroia watched each pitch he saw from Orioles pitcher Jeremy Guthrie sail out of the strikezone, then walked down to first to jumpstart the Red Sox offense.

Jason Bay, who is reunited with LaRoche, his former teammate in Pittsburgh, clocked a two-out single to keep the inning alive. Next up was David Ortiz, who made his single pay immense dividends.

Ortiz entered the at-bat with eleven home-runs over the last two months, ten more than April and May combined. He upped that total to twelve and his overall to fourteen by clubbing a high fastball from Guthrie into the center-field seats, a mere 410 feet away from where he stoically stood.

Lester, staked a three-run lead, went to work and pitched around a one-out walk and a two-out single to send his offense to the plate once more.  They rewarded him for his efforts against a  talented bunch of Orioles by adding to their advantage. Jacoby Ellsbury socked a double to center-field, scoring captain Jason Varitek, who reached earlier by double. Ellsbury stole third without a throw, his 43rd theft of the season, but nothing came of it.

Ellsbury’s batting average has dipped in recent weeks, but still hovers around .290. It rose above that mark with another double by turning on a fastball that rocketed off the base of the right-field wall to plate shortstop Nick Green, who hustled home all the way from first. Ellsbury was anxious to swipe third again, but got too careless, straying too far off second base. Guthrie saw second baseman Brian Roberts sneak to the bag, then immediately turned and fired to catch Ellsbury napping. It was a bad way to end the inning, especially with Pedroia, the reigning American League Most Valuable Player, at the plate. Yet, with the way Lester was pitching, his base-running mistake wouldn’t backfire on the Red Sox.

Lester lived between 95-97 miles-per-hour with his fastball, then offset his heater with a 80-miles-per-hour curveball that seemingly took forever to reach home-plate, tumbling in and out of the strikezone to befuddle the Orioles. This combination was very effective and helped him strike out six through the first three innings and nine total in an outing that lasted into the eighth inning.

Their was no action whatsoever until LaRoche’s unforgettable at-bat in the eighth. Not only was his blast his first hit as a Red Sox, but it gave his new teams their most runs in a game since their final contest before the All-Star break.

While the offense made things interesting over the first eight innings, closer Jonathan Papelbon, as always, made things interesting in the ninth. It seems he hasn’t had a clean inning all year and this outing only prolonged the streak of adventurous appearances, as he allowed a leadoff single to 23-year old catcher Matt Wieters, then a two-out knock to Nick Markakis before ending the threat and the game by getting Adam Jones, the potential tying run, to fly-out.

With the win, coupled with the New York Yankees first loss in nine games, the Red Sox cut into their arch rival’s American League East lead and trail now by only a game and a half. They are rejuvenated after a tough road trip and determined to take back what’s rightfully theirs, the division lead.

So, a return home, a dazzling performance by Lester, a home-run by Big Papi Ortiz, and a stellar debut by LaRoche were certainly enough to turn the Red Sox frowns upside down and restore order in Boston.

The losing streak is over.  Done.  Finished.  Snapped like the Yankees’ first-place lead will be in a matter of days.  That was exactly what we needed at exactly the right time.  The only thing that would’ve made it better was a Yankees loss, but I’d rather the standings don’t change than they change but in the wrong direction.

I want everybody who called for a trade of Brad Penny to consider this proof that so would’ve been a huge mistake.  I think we can safely say that one thing we’ve learned from our experiences this season is that you can never have too much pitching.  After Theo worked his magic in the offseason, people started dreaming about a six-man rotation.  Clearly that did not happen.  Beckett and Lester are right where they should be, now at least, but Wakefield is on the DL, Smoltz’s return to form is progressing exceptionally slowly (I know, I know, the goal is to peak late), and Dice-K is redoing all of the Spring Training he missed by pitching for Japan in the World Baseball Classic.  So we’ve added Clay Buchholz to the rotation and kept Penny.  And clearly that paid off.

Penny got the win last night, improving to seven and four with a 4.71 ERA, which is still deceptively high.  He went six and a third, gave up zero earned runs on five hits (one unearned), didn’t walk anybody, and struck out four.  How’s that for solid? Delcarmen took care of the last two outs in the seventh with one pitch, Okajima controlled through the eighth with ten, and Papelbon racked up save number twenty-five.  Another less-than-beautiful twenty-four-pitch effort.  He had to work himself out of a bases-loaded situation and did so by fanning Luke Scott and Melvin Mora in order.  Why he couldn’t just get the two strikeouts before the bases became loaded is beyond me.  He was doing so well up to this point; he seemed to have largely gotten over his I-forgot-how-to-make-a-save-in-less-than-fifteen-pitches phase.  Maybe this time the sloppiness will prove to be the exception rather than the rule.  But it hasn’t been pretty.    Only seven of his twenty-five saves have been one-two-threes.  A lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s already allowed nineteen walks, which is already twice his total for last season.  That needs to be fixed.  Definitely before October.  Prefereably before September.  But hey, if he figures it out before August, I won’t complain either.

The unearned run scored because Tek made a throwing error.  That does not happen often.  But it’s all good because he hit an RBI single to plate Drew in the fourth.  Ellsbury went two for four with a theft and a textbook forward diving catch in the third.  I’m telling you, you can bat any ball at him at any speed and any angle and make it travel any distance, and not only will he catch it but also he’ll make it look easy.  Pedroia went two for three with a walk and a repeat performance of that play he made to save Buchholz’s no hitter; a dive to the right, springing up, and firing to first for the out.  Ortiz hit, and Bay and Lowell hit and walked.  Lowrie hit a sac fly to bat in Lowell in the fourth, and who but JD Drew finally got a hit.  And he got an RBI in the fifth.  How ’bout that?

Things to be happy about.  We won.  We may be two and a half games behind the Yankees, but it could’ve been three and a half.  Tampa Bay is not close to catching up to us, even if we were planning on staying in second place.  The only two members of the lineup who went hitless were Youk and Lowrie, and Youk walked and scored and Lowrie hit a sac fly to plate somebody, and if that’s our version of hitless, that’s okay with me.  And that means that the seven other members of the lineup did hit.  And two members of the lineup enjoyed multi-hit games.  We went three for eight with runners in scoring position, but that’s a .375 average.  All in all, not a bad way to break the losing streak and not a bad building point for going forward.

We designated Mark Kotsay for assignment to make room for Adam LaRoche.  That’s fair.  When he wasn’t on the DL this season, he was batting .257 with an on-base percentage of .291, slugging percentage of .324, and home run and RBI totals of one and five, respectively.  LaRoche is posting comparable numbers: a .247 batting average, .329 on-base percentage, .441 slugging percentage, and home run and RBI totals of twelve and forty, respectively.  So the one thing that LaRoche has that Kotsay doesn’t have, offensively speaking, is gap power.  When people refer to LaRoche as a left-handed power bat, they mean more that he hits line drives for extra bases than home runs, but with the abysmal state of our offense over the past few games, I’ll take that.

Jeremy Guthrie at Lester, and Gio Gonzalez at Pettitte.  Speaking of the Yankees, did you know that Eric Hinske’s been tearing it up over the last six games? That’s just poor timing if you ask me.  In those six games, he’s got four home runs and six RBIs to go along with a .333 batting average.  Since when does that happen? And why couldn’t he have just done that with us? That right there is just unfair.  Anyway, unfortunately the A’s are nothing to be feared (unless you’re a Twins fan, in which case you support a team that lost to the A’s, 16-1, in one game only to drop a ten-run lead to lose in another).  But neither are the O’s, and if Lester keeps pitching the way he has been, we’ll have this locked.

AP Photo

Diamondbacks:
Look for the Dodgers to acquire Chad Qualls if he is available. They have a history of dealing with the Diamondbacks and need a reliever.
If I am the Dodgers I ask about Chad Tracy because in my book, he is a better option at third than Casey Blake for next year.

Blue Jays:
Another target for the Dodgers would be Jason Frasor. The organization is familiar with him as he spent all his time in the minors with them.

Orioles:
One thing I can assure you is that Danys Baez won’t be in a Dodger uniform again but if the Dodgers could get their hands on George Sherrill or Jeremy Guthrie they will be happy.
Other Orioles to target include: Aubrey Huff who could be a power bat off the bench. Melvin Mora has a history as a utility player. Cesar Izturis makes a lot of sense because he has more speed than Mark Loretta and could be a solid pinch runner that is needed in the playoffs. (Dave Roberts anybody)

Indians:
Carl Pavano is not a player I would want on the Dodgers. They already have a guy just like him in Jason Schmidt. Rafael Bentancourt is too inconsistent.
The only logical players for the Dodgers would be Cliff Lee or Kerry Wood. Wood might actually be a solid fit if the Indians kick in some money. Lee would take a package a bit less than Roy Halladay so it would make more sense to target Halladay first because he has the better track record.
Toss-ins to the deal could include Ryan Garko or Jamey Carroll. The Dodgers have been after Carroll for years and Garko would be a nice power bat of the bench.

Pirates:
The always rumor mill traded Matt Capps is the only option the Dodgers would consider.
The Dodgers would have to view Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez as utility pieces to get them. The Dodgers and Ned Colleti have a history of acquiring players like them to use in a utility role, ala Julio Lugo. I would prefer Sanchez because he plays gold glove defense at third and short as well as second.
I believe the Pirates still owe the Dodgers a player to be named in the Delwyn Young trade.

Padres:
They have no useful relievers that I would want on my team in a pennant race but I would to see the Dodgers try and pluck Chris Young from them.

Mets:
The Mets want no part of JJ Putz so don’t be surprised to see the Dodgers at least scout him.

Reds:
MLB.com is reporting that they are in on:
Francisco Cordero, David Weathers and Arthur Rhodes

Cordero is a closer and making closer money. As much as I would love to see him in a Dodgers uniform, it just isn’t likely. The Reds probably won’t trade him anyway because they are still in the race.
David Weathers and Rhodes are also Reds who will only get traded if the team goes on a losing streak.

Oscar Salazar being greeted by Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters and Luke Scott

“You can’t sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You’ve got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That’s why baseball is the greatest game of them all.” Earl Weaver

“Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘Press On’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge

Last night something truly remarkable happened and it wasn’t something the latest in a political scandal, natural disaster, or war, coup d’état or international crisis.  Likewise no additional entertainment icons died and we have been Michael Jacksoned to death. His death while tragic is now becoming an annoyance as the media and everyone with an opinion about him, his family, his lifestyle, antics or the cause of death chimes in on those subjects.  The 24 hour non-stop news coverage is threatening to take on eschatological dimensions.  Even so, all of those things happen all the time.  They are not for all of the fanfare that remarkable or special be they wars, famine, death of icons, pestilence or scandals. Since they happen all the time they are not that remarkable.

No something much more remarkable happened last night which I am patently sure that the Deity Herself had something to do with.  Something that causes us to remember that nothing is ever certain and that almost anything is possible.  The Baltimore Orioles set the record for a comeback in a major league baseball game where a last place team came from behind to beat a first place team as well as their team record for biggest comeback set against the Red Sox in 1956.

The Red Sox have been great so far this year.  They are in the most competitive division in baseball.  The Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays are good teams and the Orioles, though bringing up the rear are showing promise as they continue to build a franchise based on a great farm system producing quality players.  They now are tied for the 3^rd best team batting average in the majors at .274 with the Blue Jays and the 9^th best slugging percentage.  What has hurt the Orioles has been pitching which is the third worst in the majors and this is slowly getting better as young pitchers developed in the minors are beginning to show up and do good things on the Orioles staff. The Orioles are not expected to be in the race this year, but the overall plan is to be contenders in a season or two.

However what matters now and makes this significant as it is an example of how something that happens on a baseball field can help us in life.  The game was delayed by rain delay of 79 minutes in the 5^th inning. At the end of 7 ½ innings the Orioles were down 10-1.  It was a game that seemed to be over.  After all’ the Orioles had lost their last 8 games, going back to 2008 against the Red Sox and faced several outstanding Boston Relief Pitchers.  Likewise, it was not certain that to Sox would not score any more runs.  The Orioles pitching staff has not been consistent and the Red Sox have beaten up on the Orioles pitching staff. Things did not look good for the home team.  Then something happened. Aubry Huff singled to right to open this inning.  Huff was followed by rookie Nolan Reimold, who I have seen play many times this year at Harbor Park, who singled advancing Huff.  The Luke Scott doubled scoring Huff.  With 2 on and no outs Oscar Salazar, a hard working journeyman who was hitting .378 at Norfolk pinch hit for Melvin Mora.  Salazar took Red Sox reliever Justin Masterson to deep left for a three run home run.  Felix Pie (Pee-ay) who had relieved an injured Adam Jones drove in Robert Andino for a 5^th run.

The game was now 10-6 as Boston came to the plate in the top of the 8^th.  The Red Sox appeared to be getting something going.  With runners at 2^nd and 1^st with two out Jacoby Ellsbury hit a single to center.  Red Sox catcher George Kottaras trying to score from second was thrown out at the plate by Felix Pie for the third out.

In the bottom of the 8^th the first four Orioles hitters; Reimold, Scott, Salazar and Wieters hit and Reimold scored against Red Sox reliever Hideki Okajima who left the game.  Okajima was replaced by Takashi Saito who gave up two more hits to Ty Wiggington and Brian Roberts scoring Scott and Salazar.  To quell this Orioles uprising the Sox sent in the ever dependable Oriole killer Jonathan Papelbon who was 20-0 in save attempts against to O’s.  Papelbon looked like he was in control when he struck out Felix Pie for the second out bringing up Orioles Right Fielder Nick Markakis who had never had a hit against Papelbon.  Markakis hit a double off the left field wall to score pinch runner Jeremy Guthrie and Roberts to put the Orioles up 11-10.  In two innings the Orioles had scored 10 runs on 10 hits.  Going to the top of the 9^th the Orioles brought in closer George Sherrill who shut down the top of the Sox order to get the save.

It was an amazing game.  A last place team that had no recent success against the first place team managed the biggest comeback of such a match up in Major League Baseball history and it was stunning.  Red Sox Shortstop Dustin Pedrioa said “It was a weird game, a terrible loss for us. That’s upsetting. Things just kind of spiraled on us.” While Manager Terry Francona said “We just had no answer. We went through everybody. Nothing we did worked.”  In the home clubhouse an emotional Orioles Manager Dave Tremblay said “That was probably the best game I’ve been involved in, right there. That was absolutely tremendous. When you talk about playing all 27 outs, that’s tonight.”  While Oscar Salazar said something that I think made the difference in the game, mental readiness to step in and play when it looked like the game’s ending was already written in stone.  Salazar who came up as a pinch hitter said “You sit on the bench 5 hours with the rain delay, but when they told me to hit, I was ready.”  As Salazar stepped to the plate and got ready to hit you could see the look of calm, confident determination that only years of hard work in the obscurity of the minor leagues can bring to a person.  A blogger in Boston had a banner headline: PAPELBLOWN and Sox Blow the Biggest Lead in the History of Earth.

Now of course the Red Sox being an excellent baseball team got their revenge at Camden Yards today, scoring 4 runs in the top of the 9th to tie the Orioles and go on and win in 11 by ascore of 6-5.  This being said they are the Boston Red Sox and as much as I have hope for the Orioles, the Red Sox are at this place in the space time continuum the far better team.

So here are the life lessons that I drew from this game.  First, no matter how bad things are you still have to keep playing.  I know this from really crappy times in seminary where it looked like I would never ever finish seminary and that all I had sacrificed to get through would be in vain.  There are 27 outs in a game and if you don’t give up, you always have a chance to win.  Life is not like football or basketball where people can run out the clock on you once they get a comfortable lead.  The other team still has to face you and if like Oscar Salazar and the other young Orioles you can step up and keep your head in the game you have a chance.

I have mentioned before how a number of people wrote me off in seminary making comments like “It’s obvious that you weren’t called to ministry otherwise God would be blessing you,” and “have you thought that maybe you were wrong to get out of the Army to go to seminary” or one that hurt the most, “you’re dumber than dirt for getting out of the Army to waste your time in seminary.”  I heard such comments from people in church, at work, people that I called for prayer and even some family members.  The toll on Judy was severe and though she was suffering she refused to even let me entertain giving up.  If I had quit I would not be here today, I had to gut it out with the odds stacked against me and at times when I even thought that God might have turned his back on me.

Likewise if you are riding high you can’t become complacent.  I do not believe that this happened to the Red Sox, but complacency kills.  Jonathan Papelbon noted “Give the other team credit. They put pressure on our bullpen tonight and we pretty much imploded. I can’t think of any other word that describes it better.”  The Red Sox infield also did something rather unique.  With two outs in the bottom of the 6th Dustin Pedrioa charged off the field followed by the rest of the infield thinking that there were three outs.  Only problem there were only two outs. The Boston Globe put it this way:

“And it’s hard not to attach some significance to that play in the bottom of the sixth, when the Red Sox infield trotted to the dugout with two out.  “I looked up and I saw Tek standing there all by himself,” said Francona. “The first thing I think is that I must be nuts. I’ve never seen that. Pedie came in and said, ‘I led the charge. I (screwed) up.’ ” Said Pedroia: “I think it was my fault. I got ahead of myself and everyone followed me.”

That is my lesson learned.  Watching the Orioles make this comeback against the Red Sox inspired me again to work harder and also reminded me from where I came and the struggles that we endured.  If you had asked me in the spring of winter and spring of 1989-1990 if I thought I would make it through seminary I would have said, I may not but I will do everything that I can to make it through.  Even 6 years later after finishing both seminary and CPE residency as Major in the Army Reserve Chaplain Corps I still had to work hard to overcome professional adversity.  I got my second chance in 1999 when the Navy signed me as a free agent to play on the big team.  My hat goes off to the young Orioles who fought back last night to win, especially Oscar Salazar who never gave up in 13 years in the minors.  They may not be in the playoffs this year, but they are doing the things that will make them contenders.  Any time a time does something like this against a team as fine as the Red Sox you know that they have the potential for greatness.  The same goes for anyone who has the determination to come back from adversity when defeat looks certain.

As Bert Blyleven said “The problem with being Comeback Player of the Year is it means you have to go somewhere before you can come back.”  Those places are not enjoyable places, but sometimes fighting our way out of them teaches us the value of persistence and perseverance.  These are far more valuable than having everything our way, and knowing nothing but success without knowing failure.  Without them we will never have the wherewithal to come back when things go bad.

Peace, Steve+