Maria Bartiromo interviews Jim Rogers in BusinessWeek. Topics discussed include gold and Tim Geithner.

MUST SEE
The Dollar Bubble

Jim Rogers: Gold Price to Double in Coming Months

CommodityOnline
November 28, 2009

Read Full Article Here

Jim Rickards Discusses $4,000 Gold on CNBC

Duke Energy boss Jim Rogers is a big voice on energy and climate change for a couple of simple reasons. He runs a big utility, heavily invested in coal power, and he’s an outspoken proponent of climate-change legislation that spooks many of his peers. Associated Press Duke’s Jim Rogers: “We could find ourselves in 2050 where coal has a limited role, if any.” So his take on America’s energy future is usually interesting. No exception in this recent interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, where he makes the case for why nuclear power will likely beat coal in a country still heavily reliant on the black stuff.

Coal has all sorts of issues, he says, not just carbon emissions. Coal plants produce other particulate emissions, create fly-ash dumps, and promote harsh mining practices: Decarbonization of coal is just on top of that. If you asked me today based on current technologies–and assuming we have no advances in technology with respect to decarbonization of coal–I would say nuclear would trump coal because it produces zero greenhouse gases, it provides power 24/7, and, probably most importantly, it probably produces more jobs than even solar or wind on a per-megawatt basis.

Now, Mr. Rogers has been amping up his support for nuclear power since the summer, including a big op-ed in the WSJ. He’s often mentioned the jobs angle before, but rarely with such detail:

In an operation of a nuclear plant, there [are] .64 jobs per megawatt. The wind business–and we have a very large wind business–is .3 jobs per megawatt. In the solar business–and we’re installing solar panels–it’s about .1. But the difference in the jobs is quite different, because if you’re wiping off a solar panel, it’s sort of a minimum wage type of job, [with] much higher compensation for nuclear engineers and nuclear operators. If our goal is to rebuild the middle class, nuclear plays a key role there, particularly if coal is out of the equation.

Ever since last year’s presidential campaign, the energy debate has been largely a jobs debate—for better or for worse. With unemployment still creeping upward, will jobs—not joules—be the crucial element for America’s energy future?

[via WSJ]

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This is the second of three articles recalling hunting and fishing activities of many years ago in the Carleton Place area.

A century ago in the Eastern Ontario paradise for hunters and fishermen which extended throughout the then united counties of Lanark and Renfrew, locally organized action already was under way to protect wild animals from wasteful destruction.  Its first supporters, as mentioned in the preceding instalment of these stories, were a few foresighted hunters and other leading citizens of Carleton Place, Pakenham and Almonte. 

Later, with a spreading realization of the economic and esthetic benefits to be gained by men from his protection of wild birds and animals, there came a gradual revulsion against wanton slaughter in the forests, fields and lakes.  Among the victims, the long-extinct passenger pigeon still was shot here in numbers in the early 1880’s, as shown by reports of partridge and pigeon hunting in the townships bordering the Mississippi Lake.

First Finds of Indian Relics

Of the native Indians who a hundred and fifty years ago had been almost the sole inhabitants of the Lanark and Renfrew area, only a few stragglers still remained seventy-five years ago in Lanark County.  One of district’s first residents to record his interest in the excavated relics of the reign of the Indian hunter was Andrew Bell, a son of the Rev. William Bell of Perth.  In the early settlement days here he wrote in a letter:

“All the country hereabouts has evidently been once inhabited by the Indians, and for a vast number of years too.  The remains of fires, with the bones and horns of deers round them, have often been found several inches under the black mound. .. A large pot made of burnt clay and highly ornamented was lately found near the banks of the Mississippi, under a large maple tree, probably two or three hundred years old.  Stone axes have been found in different parts of the settlement.  Skeletons of Indians have been several times found, where they had died suddenly or had been killed by accident in the woods.  One was found in a reclining posture with its back against a hillock, and a rough-made stone tobacco pipe lying beside it.”

Another Pioneer Conservation Society

The wild life conservation movement in this district had expanded by the 1880’s to the arousing of organized local support for a wiser harvesting of most of the usual products of rod, gun, spear, trap and net, and for protection of other obviously harmless or beneficial wild creatures.  Carleton Place Herald editor James Poole in an editorial of nearly a hundred years ago already had claimed any man who would shoot a robin or other songbird would be capable of robbing his grandmother or of committing any other crime or rascality.

An organization in Carleton Place with these newer ideas for the conservation of practically all main forms of wild life was formed in 1884.  Under the title of the Carleton Place Game, Fish and Insectivorous Birds Protective Society it continued to operate for some years.  Original officers of the group were William Pattie, president ; Jim Bothwell, vice president ; Walter Kibbee, secretary-treasurer, and committee members John Cavers, Tom Glover, John Moore, Jim Morphy and Jim Presley ; elected at a May meeting in the old fire hall on Bridge Street, when a constitution drawn up by Robert Bell was adopted.  Other members pledged to support the rules of this pioneering wild life protective society were William Beck, Peter Cram, Jim Dunlop, John Flett, David Gillies, Charlie Glover, Tom Hilliard, Archie Knox and Tom Leaver ; Hugh McCormick, William McDiarmid, Hiram McFadden, Jim McFadden, Jim McGregor, George McPherson, William Neelin, Robert Patterson and William Patterson ; Dr. Robert F. Preston, Alex Sibbitt, William Taylor, William Whalen, Will R. Williamson, Alex Wilson and Joe Wilson.  Out of town sportsmen among the first members were Duncan Campbell, John Gemmill, D. G. MacDonnell and Tom Mitcheson, all of Almonte ; Jim Rogers of Montreal and R. W. Stevens of Ottawa.

At this time fishing on Sundays was illegal here as well as hunting on Sundays.  Only about five of these men were said to be still living in 1928 when a story recalling the formation of the Carleton Place wild life protective society of 1884 was published.

A social event sponsored by the Society in its first year was a steamboat excursion to the present Lake Park, then noted as “the old Regatta Grounds.”  The “Morning Star” and her two barges, with a number of skiffs in tow, carried three hundred people to the picnic ; which featured a rifle shooting competition, a baseball game, tug of war and track events, croquet, boating, and dancing to the exhilarating airs of the Willis bagpipes.

Game Law Enforcement

Two unfortunate Indians were among those who felt the first punitive effects of the new society’s protective activity.  This local story was published in October of 1884:

“Last Wednesday two Indians from St. Regis were about to pack up and leave their camp between Appleton and Almonte, on the Mississippi River, when a representative of the Carleton Place Game, Fish and Insectivorous Birds Protective Society appeared on the spot and confiscated a number of muskrat skins.

The fellows had been warned by the Society to desist trapping the animals until November.  The two offenders were brought to Carleton Place.  They had in their possession 126 muskrat skins, one mink skin and one raccoon skin.  The taking of the latter is not an offence.  The poor fellows were in most destitute circumstances.

The magistrate inflicted a fine of $10 and costs and the skins were confiscated.  They doubtless intended to do the river above Carleton Place at once, as has been their annual custom.  The Protective Society is extending its influence very rapidly in all directions from Carleton Place, having a good representative membership in many points at a distance.”

Duck Shooting Toll

Ducks in the 1890’s remained abundant and were shot by the hundreds by the most experienced hunters.  An 1890 published report of two Carleton Place duck hunters’ successes gave totals early in the season of 200 birds for one and 272 for the other, with one shooting 154 ducks in three days in a northerly expedition.  Heavy tolls by the relatively small numbers of hunters seemed to make little impression on the duck population.

DARTON GROUP co-founders Rochelle Rivas and Mark Weber attended last Monday’s 2009 Annual Meeting of  the Charlotte Chamber at the Charlotte Convention Center.

The meeting was built around the theme “Charlotte Remixed“  – right on the mark given how Charlotte has fought back (and changed) given the stormy economy and the implosion of the city’s financial services industry. 

Outgoing 2009 Charlotte Chamber Chairman Tim Belk (of Belk, Inc.) and his successor, David Darnell (of Bank of America), provided perspective on the Queen City from a “looking back” and “looking forward” vantage point.  Both leaders spoke of ongoing and major change in Charlotte.

Need proof of Change?

In a city known for financial services jobs, Charlotte has 55,000 such jobs.  Contrast that with the number of healthcare jobs in the Queen City.  That number stands at 75,000 jobs.

One of the meeting highlights was the debut of “I See“, a moving video that creatively delivers a diversity-centered vision for Charlotte.  Watch the video on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYYZAIUzcGQ.

DARTON offers hearty congrats to Balfour Beatty Construction (recipient of The Belk Innovation in Diversity Award) and Jim Rogers (Chairman, President and CEO of Duke Energy) who received the 2009 Citizen of the Carolinas Award.

Visit the Charlotte Chamber online at http://www.charlottechamber.com/.

The Financial Times interviews famed investor Jim Rogers today. I read his book Adventure Capitalist several years ago, which recounts his travels across six continents in a custom-made yellow Mercedes convertible. He told the story in a compelling way and I enjoyed the book greatly. He’s also been uncannily correct about the market for the last 40 years.

Gold hits record near $1,150/oz as dollar slips

Jan Harvey
Reuters
November 18, 2009

Read Full Article Here

“If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there,” said Jim Rogers, the famed investor and self-made billionaire in a recent interview. “But I don’t know of any other place.”

What’s he talking about? Today, we take a look and invest right alongside his idea. And it should start to pay off with the arrival of the first swallows of spring in 2010. It’s also timely now — in this weak-kneed economy — because it has traditionally held up well even in when the economy is on the ropes. Even the Great Depression couldn’t put this thing down.

We start with simple truths. The world’s population has more than doubled since 1950 — from about 2.5 billion to 6.7 billion. By 2050, there will be more than 9 billion people on the planet. Almost all of this growth will come from undeveloped markets such as China and India. And they will all be doing one thing, for sure — eating.

Now, hang on. I know that is a banal insight by itself, but this story has layers like a tiramisu. The second layer is the mix of food eaten, which is important. These undeveloped economies are getting richer. Predictably, as people everywhere have done and continue to do when they have a little more money in their pockets, they change their diets. They spend more on food. The average Chinese spends 40 cents of every additional dollar earned on food. In India, it’s about 70 cents of every additional dollar. What do they buy?

They buy more meat, more fruits and more vegetables. Their calorie intake rises. That’s why the U.N. says we’ll need to boost food production by 70% by 2050 — a big task, given increasing restraints on water and quality arable land.

How do we meet that demand? Here the plotlines start to thicken and things get interesting…

Let’s look at soybeans specifically. China is the largest importer of soybeans and has been since 2000. China was once the largest exporter of soybeans, but flipped to a net importer in 1995. It may well be impossible for China to meet its demands for soybeans by producing more of its own. Passport Capital, an astute hedge fund, estimates that in order to grow enough soybeans to become self-sufficient, China would need to cultivate an area about the size of Nebraska.

That looks impossible against China’s arable land base, which has been in decline since 1988 — this despite the fact that China’s subsidizes agriculture. Another reason is the low level of water resources in China. Soybeans require a lot of water — 1,500 tonnes of water for one tonne of soybeans.

Who has lots of water? Brazil. So it is no surprise to discover that the increase in demand for soybeans from China has largely been met by increasing soybean acreage planted in Brazil. (Brazil is the second largest exporter of soybeans in the world, behind the U.S. and ahead of Argentina and Paraguay.)

The easiest way for China to get around its water shortage is to import soybeans. By importing soybeans, Passport calculates that China is effectively importing 14% of its water needs.

It looks likes this trend will continue for quite some time. When you look across the world, arable land per person is in decline. (Arable land simply means land that can be used for farming; it doesn’t mean that it is currently used for farming.) But one nation has more potential for converting arable land into producing farmland than anybody else by a country mile. It’s Brazil again.

Brazil has a large tropical savanna known as the cerrado. You can think of it as the world’s arable land bank. It’s an area of about 250 million acres — about as big an area as all of the arable land in the U.S. It gets plenty of rainfall and sunshine. The soil is very old and runs deep. But there is a problem: The soil is nutrient poor. You need to add a lot of potash and phosphate — two key nutrients — to grow soybeans there.

According to estimates by SLC Agricola and Morgan Stanley, the average new acre of farmland in the cerrado requires 14 times the amount of phosphate and three times the amount of potash of a typical American acre. This means that it is expensive to grow grains here. You need a high soybean price to make it worth the effort — and there is more to it than just adding the nutrients. There is road and rail access, for instance. Someone would have to build all that out, too.

Connecting the Dots — Grains Are Cheap

So now we are in a position to connect some dots. China’s increasing population and affluence will drive its soybean imports. These imports will come mainly from Brazil. And Brazil, as it converts more arable land to producing farmland, will need a lot of potash and phosphate.

What is true of soybeans is also true of wheat and corn and rice and other agricultural commodities. We’ll need more of all of them. And all of them face the same challenges for water and land. All of them require lots of fertilizer.

I’ve not mentioned the biofuel component. But this is another big pull on demand for grains. The U.S. alone aims to produce 15 billion gallons of ethanol by 2015. All over the world, food crops now compete with energy needs.

This is not a gloom-and-doom scenario. It simply means that there is a lot of support for higher prices for agricultural commodities. Inventory levels still remain low worldwide. Grain prices are all well off their highs. After adjusting for inflation, many of them are as cheap as they’ve been in decades.

This is why Jim Rogers said he likes the agricultural commodities. That’s what he was talking about in the quote up top. I couldn’t agree more.

I also mentioned how this idea was hard to kill. In the Great Depression, purchases for jewelry and clothing and the like fell by 50%. But purchases for food — even for meat — held steady. We’ve seen similar patterns in recent busts. In the Asian Crisis of 1998–2001, the demand for food held steady even while other markets collapsed.

Put it all together and you have a great case for higher grain prices. You also have an environment that is very good for fertilizers — in particular, potash and phosphate. An investment in the fertilizer stocks is an investment right alongside the grains. But, be careful, not all fertilizer stocks are a good investment, even if they have great potential.

 Trustinvalue.com

• Nuveen Investments to Offer New Mortgage Opportunity Term Fund
• China Signals That It May Allow Currency to Rise Against Dollar
• TFC October Monthly Update
• Illinois speeding toward budget disaster, study says
• How the middle class are shoplifting to keep up appearances
• Oil demand: A developing thirst
• Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out
• ‘On the Brink,’ New York Must Cut, Paterson Says
• The Downside of a Loan Pickup
• Yuan to Resume Gains
• A 69% Capital Gains Tax Hike . . .
• Why Jim Rogers Isn’t Buying The Equity Rally (GLD)

Nuveen Investments to Offer New Mortgage Opportunity Term Fund

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 01:45 AM PST

Nuveen Investmentsannounced plans of a new closed-end fund, Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity Term Fund. Objective is to generate attractive total returns through opportunistic investments in mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”). Its investment objective investing in MBS directly, and indirectly through a separate investment in a public-private investment partnership formed pursuant to the Public-Private Investment Program (“PPIP”) established by the U.S. Department of Treasury (the “UST”).

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

How the middle class are shoplifting to keep up appearances

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 07:07 AM PST

Middle-class shoppers who have been hit by the recession are stealing hundreds of millions of pounds of expensive food in an effort to maintain their high standard of living, according to a new survey.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR-Consumer Discretionary; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares MSCI-U.K.;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Oil demand: A developing thirst

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 07:58 AM PST

Transport will account for 97% of this increase as rising numbers of cars hit the roads of the developing world. Demand from these countries will overtake that of the industrialised OECD nations by 2030. By then, America, Japan and Europe will be using less oil than in 1980.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services Portfolio; buy United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 08:45 AM PST

Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world’s top producer Barrick Gold.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

‘On the Brink,’ New York Must Cut, Paterson Says

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 08:51 AM PST

Representative of financial problems of state and local governments

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

The Downside of a Loan Pickup

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 09:23 AM PST

The danger for fixed-income investors is that ultraloose monetary policy, combined with a lack of new issuance, has pushed loan prices beyond reasonable levels. After all, a year-to-date total return of 80% on triple-C loans, as measured by S&P LCD, doesn’t come without risks. An increase in new issuance, while a sign of healing, would add to pressure for a correction in the near term.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Van Kampen Senior Inc Tr; sell Van Kampen Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Yuan to Resume Gains

Posted: 11 Nov 2009 10:59 PM PST

China will probably let the yuan start rising against the dollar in early 2010

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

A 69% Capital Gains Tax Hike . . .

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 12:02 AM PST

Pelosi’s 5.4% income surtax would hit capital gains and dividends.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell S&P 500 SPDR; buy BlackRock MuniHoldings Insured Fund, Inc.;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Why Jim Rogers Isn’t Buying The Equity Rally (GLD)

Posted: 12 Nov 2009 12:24 AM PST

“The only bubble I see forming in the Western world is in the U.S. government bond market. Other than that I don’t see any bubbles going on.”

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares Silver Trust; buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF; buystreetTRACKS Gold Trust; buy iPath Dow Jones-AIG Cotton Total Return Sub-Index.; buy iPath Dow Jones AIG Coffee Total Return Sub Index;

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Great Depression Billboard

Brother, Can You Spare A Dime?

“Courage is the greatest of all virtues, because if you haven’t courage, you may not have an opportunity to use any of the others. ”

~Samuel Johnson

“…Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 per-cent) and whites (9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. …”

~Bureau of Labor Statistics, News Release, November 6, 2009

“It is not capitalism which is responsible for the evils of permanent mass unemployment, but the policy which paralyses its working.”

~Ludwig von Mises

Double-digit unemployment

Glenn Beck Show – Nov 6, 2009 – Pt 2 of 6 – John Stossel & Peter Schiff

Harris Calls Jobs Data `Backward Step’ for U.S. Economy: Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOufvDvfZeQ

Unemployment in U.S. Jumps to 10.2% as Payrolls Fall: Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldSUfGLqfyU

Dollar Volatile as U.S. Payrolls Fall More Than Forecast: Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQNOME4cQKY

Unemployment Rate ‘disappointments’ White House

November 6, 2009 FTV Morning Report

Economic Expectations – Unemployment Rate May Reach 15% – Bloomberg–July 2, 2009

Why You’ve Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920

Is Limited Government an Oxymoron?

The Obama Depression is real and worsening with the number of unemployed Americans over 15,700,000, while the number of Americans seeking a full time job is over 26,500,000 Americans.

During 1933, the worse year of the Great Depression, the number of unemployed Americans was about 13,000,000.

The Obama Depression has more than double the number of Americans seeking full time jobs than the Great Depression.

The Great Depression lasted at least another eight years until the start of World War II, but actually lasted until 1946.

The question is how long will the Obama Depression last?

As long as President Obama follows the failed Keynesian economic policies of more government stimulus spending at least another three years when he will be voted out of office.

The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 10% for at least another six months and peak at about 13% in July.

If a Health Care Reform, Cap and Trade Energy Tax, or Comprehensive Immgiration Reform bill is passed and signed into law, it will be worse.

The unemployment rate would remain in double digits until 2012.

When will the unemployment rate again achieve full-employment rates of 2% to 3% levels?

It will take another five years minimum to reach these levels provided pro-growth economic policies are implemented such as the FairTax and real cuts in Federal Government spending of at least 50%.

Not very likely with the Progressive Radical Socialist Democratic Party led by President Obama favoring massive government spending increases, huge tax increases and wealth redistribution instead of  wealth and job creation economic policies.

President Obama economic policies are pro-government, anti-growth and anti-small business.

The only sector that is growing is the Federal Government.

President Obama’s  economic policies of massive bailouts, stimulus-spending, deficits, wage and price controls and subsidies and funding for big corporations, unions  and community organizations as political payoffs for campaign contribution.

Obama’s policies are generating much uncertainty among both business owners and consumers.

Business and consumer confidence needs to be restore before an economic recovery with job creation begins.

Until confidence is restored higher unemployment rates combined with increasing inflation will result in stagflation or an inflationary depression–the Obama Depression.

Do not be surprised when President Obama announces wage and price controls once inflation start in earnest in 2011.

President Obama is destroying jobs, wrecking the economy and killing the American dream.

Expect massive Democratic defeats in the elections of 2010 with 50 House seats lost and with the Republicans gaining control of the House of Representatives and may be picking up two to four Senate seats. The Democrats will most likely continue to control the Senate.

Expect this massive Democratic defeat to continue into the 2012 as high rates of unemployment continue and inflation ramps up. The Democrats will lose another  25 House seats and eight Senate seats. The Republican Party will most likely gain control of the Senate in 2012 or 2014.

President Obama will be challenged in 2012 for the nomination and will lose to Hillary Clinton.

The Republicans will most likely win the Presidency in 2012 provided the Republican Party nominates a principled conservative/libertarian candidate with experience, integrity, and a record of fiscal responsibility. Possible leading candidates include Senator Coburn, Congressman Pence, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Governor Sarah Palin.

There is a distinct possibility of another third political party being formed consisting of conservatives, libertarians, independents, and Reagan Democrats and Republicans, who have given up on the fiscal irresponsibility of the Democratic and Republican parties. The core of this party will come from Americans attending the tea party rallies.

The top policitical issues will be all be the economy (high unemployment and inflation), Federal government spending and taxation, illegal immigration, energy independence, and national defense, the Iran and  terrorist nuclear threats. 

The party is definitely over for Obama and the progressive radical socialist Democratic Party.

The American people are wide awake and ready to throw these bums out.

Doris Day sings The Party’s Over

The American people will lead the way.

The Law Of Attraction

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”

~Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Keynes did not add any new idea to the body of inflationist fallacies, a thousand times refuted by economists… He merely knew how to cloak the plea for inflation and credit expansion in the sophisticated terminology of mathematical economics.”

~Ludwig von Mises

Background Articles and Videos

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-09-1331
until 8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, November 6, 2009

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — OCTOBER 2009

The unemployment rate rose from 9.8 to 10.2 percent in October, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses over the month were in con-struction, manufacturing, and retail trade.

Household Survey Data

In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.7 per-cent) and whites (9.5 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (27.6 percent), blacks (15.7 percent), and Hispanics (13.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1,
A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of
unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month
at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in
October, falling to 58.5 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes refer-
red to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3
million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been
cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October,
reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October,
up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis-
couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 190,000 in October. In the most re-
cent 3 months, job losses have averaged 188,000 per month, compared with losses
averaging 357,000 during the prior 3 months. In contrast, losses averaged 645,000
per month from November 2008 to April 2009. Since December 2007, payroll employment
has fallen by 7.3 million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment decreased by 62,000 in October. Monthly job losses have
averaged 67,000 during the most recent 6 months, compared with an average decline
of 117,000 during the prior 6 months. October job losses were concentrated in
nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in heavy construction
(-14,000). Since December 2007, employment in construction has fallen by 1.6 mil-
lion.

Manufacturing continued to shed jobs (-61,000) in October, with losses in both
durable and nondurable goods production. Over the past 4 months, job losses in
manufacturing have averaged 51,000 per month, compared with an average monthly
loss of 161,000 from October 2008 through June 2009. Manufacturing employment has
fallen by 2.1 million since December 2007.

Retail trade lost 40,000 jobs in October. Employment declines were concentrated
in sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-16,000) and in department
stores (-11,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 18,000
in October.

Health care employment continued to increase in October (29,000). Since the start
of the recession, health care has added 597,000 jobs.

Temporary help services has added 44,000 jobs since July, including 34,000 in
October. From January 2008 through July 2009, temporary help services had lost
an average of 44,000 jobs per month.

The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls was unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose
by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the
month. (See table B-2.)

In October, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on
private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.72. Over the past
12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.4 percent, while average weekly
earnings have risen by only 0.9 percent due to declines in the average workweek.
(See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from -201,000
to -154,000, and the change for September was revised from -263,000 to -219,000.

_____________
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday,
December 4, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS13000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status:  Unemployed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Unemployment Rate Actually Near 14% in July is Now 17.5%

11/3/09 Part 1/4 Jim Rogers with Lindsay Whipp of the Financial Times: Brief Dollar Rally

11/3/09 Part 2/4 Jim Rogers with Lindsay Whipp of the Financial Times: Brief Dollar Rally

11/3/09 Part 3/4 Jim Rogers with Lindsay Whipp of the Financial Times: Brief Dollar Rally

11/3/09 Part 4/4 Jim Rogers with Lindsay Whipp of the Financial Times: Brief Dollar Rally

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Kiplinger’s recently asked six top strategists to give their take on investing and where the markets are headed from here. A sampling of the responses:

Warren Buffett: While he says he has no idea where stocks will head in the short term, Buffett says that “over a ten-year period you will do considerably better owning a group of equities than you will owning Treasuries. In fighting the economic war, we’ve taken action that sows the seeds of substantial inflation down the road. Not in the next six months or year, but ten years from now the dollar will buy a lot less than it buys today.”

Bob Rodriguez: The chief executive officer of First Pacific Advisors says “don’t run with the herd. Being surrounded by people who are doing the same thing as you offers a false sense of protection. He recommends short-maturity, high-quality debt on the bond side, and says that if the U.S. government keeps increasing its balance sheet through huge deficits, “you should probably move at least 20% to 40% of your assets out of the U.S.”

Jeremy Grantham: The GMO chief investment strategist says that if you’ve missed the junk rally, “don’t compound the damage to your portfolio by chasing gains in risky assets. We’re at the beginning of a seven-year period of lean returns.” He recommends buying only the most attractively valued, highest-quality blue-chips.

Marty Whitman: The co-chief investment officer of Third Avenue Management says to “find extremely well-financed companies that do not rely on continuous access to the bond or stock markets for refinancing, that are run by competent management teams and that have favorable prospects for growth.” Buy those issues when they’re trading at a discount. “All other systems of investing are concerned with predicting stocks’ near-term price movements,” he says.

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This week, China will be launching a ground breaking new secondary market & trading platform that hopes to help smaller technology companies attract investment in domestic IPOs.

Small & Medium Sized Enterprises (SME’s), are the mainstay of the Chinese economy, as they provide the largest employment base as China moves towards a more enterprise based economy. However, smaller companies have found it difficult to raise funding, as the large commercial banks concentrate on state owned enterprises.

Shenzen based ChiNext, which is being hailed as a Nasdaq style trading board will begin trading on Friday 30th October in the hope that traded entities will be able to take advantage of excessive liquidity, expecially in retail investment markets. It is believed that investors will be attracted to new opportunities to stake a claim in up & coming tech startups, but also by the more relaxed trading environment, as companies listed on ChiNext will not face the Byzantine rules that are applied to A & B class share issues in Shanghai.

“The launch of ChiNext represents a milestone in the development of China’s financial markets and is an important part of the government’s plans to boost support for small and medium-sized firms,” said Jing Ulrich, Managing Director of China equities at JP Morgan, Hong Kong. “The board will provide an additional source of financing for younger companies while broadening the options available to investors.”

More importantly, it is expected that ChiNext will also draw in private equity & venture capital firms, which are critical to helping startups gain a foothold in global markets. According to Jackson Wong from Tanrich Securities, these investment vehicles will be more likely to take part, since they have more routes to cash out on their investments, with an avid pool of retail investors ready to speculate.

“The launch of the growth enterprise board is an important step towards implementing the national strategy on promoting innovation,” Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said last week. The first 28 companies to list on the board, ranging from software to medical equipment makers, have raised 16 billion yuan (US$2.3 billion) in their initial public offerings — more than double initial forecasts.

Well known China investor Jim Rogers (he of the dickie bow) according to this report from CCTV is watching the new bourse with great interest, although he hasn’t invested in any of the companies that will IPO this week, any move he makes in the near future is bound to be followed by Sinophile investors

So far, more than 9 million people have opened  trading accounts with the ChiNext platform, fuelling fears that there may be some price fluctuations in the offing. According to CCTV.com, the average price-earnings ratio for 28 companies  due to list on Friday is 56, which is a hefty premium on the average 25 encountered on comparable listings on the Shanghai A list.

Wang Yiwen, GM of Shanghai Deding Investment Management  said, “The IPO prices for those firms have been set very high. This will cause pricing and trading issues for the secondary market. Take the SME board at the A-share market as an example. When the SME board starting trading in June 2004, 8 firms got listed. Their share prices all opened and ended higher on that day. But prices soon started declining after 5 to 10 trading days, with some losing nearly half their values.”

So it would seem that we will see some initial decay, but all in all, this is an exciting move for China’s retail investors individually & global investors as a whole. Hopefully ChiNext will give some small domestic companies a financial springboard which will allow thenm to accelerate growth before performing secondaries in Hong Kong & on the NASDAQ & NYSE in the future.