The chief executive officers of six of the 10 largest U.S. homebuilders cited the potential of a sales comeback in the spring, traditionally their strongest season, during conference calls in the last four weeks. Housing forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association show the new-home market will begin a rebound that will last through at least 2012.

A revival in demand for new houses after record-low sales in 2010 may bolster a U.S. economy that’s 19 months into a recovery. Residential construction is a key factor in gross domestic product because it requires the manufacturing of home components such as stoves, cement, tile and furnaces. Richard DeKaser, an economist at Boston-based Parthenon Group, said he expects the homebuilding industry will this year make its first positive contribution to GDP since 2005.

“The spring market is going to be the first test of the proposition that there’s an underlying improvement in new-home fundamentals,” DeKaser said in an interview. “If we don’t see the needle move, it will be very discouraging.”

New-home sales probably will rise 20 percent to 385,000 this year, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders in Washington. Fannie Mae, the world’s largest mortgage buyer, projected an 18 percent gain, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimated a 10 percent advance, according to forecasts posted on their websites.

Spring is a popular time to buy because house hunters often want to have their home finished by July or August, before the start of the U.S. school year in September, said John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. in Irvine, California. The weekend after the Super Bowl is traditionally when prospective buyers start looking, he said in an interview.

“If that’s a good weekend for the builders, then we’re going to have a good spring, and if we have a good spring, we’ll have a good year,” Burns said. “That’s the way it’s played out for years.”

Residential investment probably will increase 9.6 percent in 2011 after five years of declines, based on the median forecast of 30 economists at a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago symposium in December. Housing starts likely will jump 17 percent to a three-year high of 688,000 in 2011, led by a gain in the construction of single-family houses, said Crowe of the National Association of Home Builders.

“The sales pace for new homes will improve as we move through the spring, unless something comes along to derail the economy,” said James Wilson, director of research for JMP Securities LLC in New York. “Demand seems to be coming back.”

Date: 08 February 2011 | For the full report, please visit http://www.bloomberg.com