Braves top prospect J.R. Graham exited his start on Monday after feeling some discomfort in his shoulder between innings.

He was optimistic that tests the following day would provide a clean bill of health, but on Wednesday he was placed him on the disabled list.

When I spoke with Graham about his injury immediately after the game, he voiced his disappointment at having to come out. He said he was making progress in several different aspects of his game and felt like he had been able to fix a couple minor flaws in his mechanics.

Here are some quotes from Graham that did not make it into the original story.

On making adjustments:

“I felt like I was pitching well. These past couple of games, I’ve been working hard with different pitch grips and pitching from the other side of the rubber.

“I’ve been working on some stuff in my bullpens, so it was nice to get back out on the field. I’ve been locating my pitches well and I’ve been throwing my breaking ball.”

On changing his position on the mound:

“I talked about it with pitching coach Dennis Lewallyn and I talked to [pitching coordinator] Dave Wallace and I pulled out information from Don Sutton. We talked about it and decided to pitch from that [third base] side to give the hitters a different angle and make it more uncomfortable.

“But I wasn’t locating the fastball from that side of the rubber, so I made the change to go back to the other side which worked well last year and at the beginning of this season.”

On following in the footsteps of teammate Alex Wood, who recently added a spike curveball to his repertoire:

“My changeup felt really good this year and it’s coming along. I’ve worked on my breaking ball and I’ve got more depth off of it. When I get hitters 0-2 or 1-2, I’m trying to put them away with the breaking ball.

“I’ve been trying to find a grip that works for me on a more consistent basis in any count.

“I’ve been using a spike curveball from talking with [Tim] Hudson and [Craig] Kimbrel and [Jonny] Venters. Just picking their brains on some minor stuff in big league camp and they have had successes with it. If they can, why can’t I? It gives me the location and movement I want.

“Alex Wood told me he thought it would be a good pitch for me. I was hesitant, but I bought into it and called Don Sutton and he gave me some information. He said to spin it as fast as you can, not just throw it as hard as you can — as many rotations as possible before it gets to the plate.

“There’s not much a difference [in the grip]. I just lifted my pointer finger and put more pressure on my middle finger. If you don’t get on top of it, it will slip out or go over the catcher’s head.”

JR

1. Gerrit Cole – Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles
3. Kevin Gausman – Baltimore Orioles
4. Jameson Taillon – Pittsburgh Pirates

There seems to be a discussion out there that Dylan Bundy sits alone atop the list of pitching prospects in the minor leagues. I don’t share that belief. In fact, I don’t believe he’s the best pitching prospect in the game. While it is close, give me Gerrit Cole and his potential for three ‘7’ pitches at the front of my rotation. Both Bundy and Cole are exceptional talents that can develop into number one starters. My beef with the conversation of Bundy alone at the top doesn’t end there. I think the Orioles and Pirates both have another prospect that is right there with Bundy and Cole. Kevin Gausman and Jameson Taillon are also exceptional talents that have the potential to front rotations at the big league level. They’re all potential number one starters and they all deserve recognition at the top of this list.

5. Zack Wheeler – New York Mets
6. Jose Fernandez – Miami Marlins
7. Shelby Miller – St. Louis Cardinals
8. Taijuan Walker – Seattle Mariners

Just a half tick behind the first four on this list, the collection of Wheeler, Fernandez, Miller and Walker are almost equally as impressive. I don’t believe these four grade out as potential number one starters down the line, but they could all be really, really good number two starters at their peak. If one player had the potential to vault himself into the upper group, it would be Taijuan Walker, who while still the rawest of the group, could also be the most supremely talented of this four.

9. Lucas Giolito – Washington Nationals
10. Archie Bradley – Arizona Diamondbacks

I broke Lucas Giolito and Archie Bradley into their own tier because they are much further away than any of the other prospects in the Top 10. Giolito will miss much of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year and Bradley struggled enough with his control and command in Low-A, that his path through the minor leagues is expected to be pretty lengthy. Both players are fantastic talents that could be high number two starters and possibly even number one starters down the line.

Just Missed: Matt Barnes – Boston Red Sox, JR Graham – Atlanta Braves, Carlos Martinez – St. Louis Cardinals, Trevor Rosenthal – St. Louis Cardinals, Julio Teheran – Atlanta Braves

That young pitcher would be a guy by the name of J.R Graham. A 6’0 tall, 185lb hard throwing right handed pitcher. Graham may be a little less recognizable then Teheran but he has the ability to light up the radar gun and has been clocked at over 100mph on several occasions.

Although hype and name recognition often rule the roost in sports these days, I still believe that statistics over rule “potential”. I want a guy who can produce on the field and who has proven he can do so. Now I’m not going to make the case that J.R Graham is a far and away better starter then Julio Teheran but what I want to lay out is a few facts that show we could have a closer race for that 5th spot in the Atlanta rotation then many would assume.

When you look at both players 2012 stats you will see that Graham has the edge in several important categories. Now before I even start I know a lot of people will say that Teheran was in AAA for 2012 and Graham was still only in AA. Now the competition is surely different between AAA and AA but I don’t believe it is so different that we can’t draw comparisons from it.

JR Graham: 12-2 record with a 2.80 era in 26 starts

Julio Teheran: 7-9 record with a 5.08era in 26 starts

So the first thing I took notice of is the record. A far better winning % from Graham in comparison to Teheran. The ERA is also more then 2 runs per 9 innings better. Both pitchers made 26 starts so the data sample is pretty much the same.

JR Graham: 148 innings pitched with 7.5 hits/9 innings and 0.5 HRs / 9 innings.

Julio Teheran: 131 innings pitched with 10.0 hits/9innings and 1.2HRs/9 innings.

So it appears that in equal starts we are getting more bang for our buck with JR Graham. 17 more innings over 26 starts doesn’t seem like a lot but that could be 17 less innings your bullpen needs to eat up and that 17 innings is easily converted over to the amount of 2 starts of 8.5 innings a piece. As you can also see Graham allows 2.5 hits less per nine innings and also allows less then half the home runs. Again these numbers seem pretty insignificant but when you stretch them over the course of the entire season you could see some considerable differences.

JR Graham: 2.1 walks/9innings with 6.7 strikeouts/9innings

Julio Teheran: 3.0 walks/9innings with 6.7 strikeouts/ 9innings

Nothing overly alarming here but we can see that Graham averages almost a full walk less per nine innings and has identical strikeout numbers to Teheran which has always been Julio’s strong suit.

Numbers don’t tell the whole story here, nor will they ever with any sports situation but as I mentioned before I will always favor the numbers in a toss up situation. Both of these pitchers have electric fastballs which can hit into the high 90′s on the radar gun with Graham actually being clocked at 102mph during this spring. Now whether that radar gun was entirely accurate is up to you to believe or not believe but regardless he’s pushing triple digits with the heater.

Both of these guys have a lot to prove this spring training and my hope is that the Braves won’t unfairly gives this job to Teheran just because of hype or his ranking as their top prospect. I think JR Graham could really help this team at the back end of the rotation and if not there as a possible arm in the bullpen later on in the year.

Don’t sleep on JR Graham, we could be seeing him a lot in 2013

By: Bob McVinua

The Player: JR Graham (RHP, Atlanta Braves) – Graham was a fourth round pick of the Braves in 2011 out of Santa Clara University. After an impressive debut (1.72 ERA in 57.2 IP) with Danville in 2011, he was promoted directly to High-A to start the 2012 season. In 17 starts for Lynchburg, he posted a 2.63 ERA with just 88 hits and 17 walks allowed in 102.2 innings, while striking out 68 batters. He was promoted to Double-A Mississippi for nine starts in the second half, finishing with a 3.18 ERA and just 35 hits allowed in 45.1 innings, with 42 punch outs.

Basis of Report: Compilation – Personal Observation (FIL 2011), Industry Contacts

Scouting Report

Body (6-0, 180): Undersized. Smaller stature, good strength and plus athleticism. Physically reminds me of Roy Oswalt.
Delivery/Mechanics: Stays low throughout delivery and drives off back leg. Good arm stroke and plus-plus arm speed. Has some effort toward the finish, with some recoil and fall toward 1B. Athleticism allows him to field position despite less than optimal finish to delivery. Mechanics aren’t always pretty but he makes them work with a quick arm and good athletic ability.
Fastball (FB) Velocity (Wind-up): High – 98, Low – 91, Average 93-94, Grade – 60/60
Fastball (FB) Velocity (Stretch): High – 97, Low 91, Average 93-94, Grade – 60/60
Fastball (FB) Movement:  Excellent natural sink. Really gets good downward action on the ball. Stays on top of the ball well to create angle and exaggerate sink. Even when he works up, ball has good life that helps mitigate lack of true height. Sinker can be devastating with plus-plus movement. Grade – 60/70
Overall Fastball: Really good pitch that can carry him to the big leagues. Movement should help easy plus velo play up another grade for overall FB at peak. Excellent sinker that gets swings and misses and tons of weak, ground ball contact. Consistency is the only thing missing and that should come as he shows excellent aptitude for pitching. Grade – 60/70
Slider (SL): Very good complementary pitch. Mixes it in well and trusts it even when behind in the count. Flashes as solid average pitch and has consistent average grades. Not much projection remaining in pitch. Reliable pitch that can induce more ground balls. Will be more effective when he learns to finish it out of the zone more consistently, particularly to LHH. Grade – 50/50
Change-Up (CH): Worst pitch but still has useable profile. Willing to throw but has rarely needed it as a pro so far. Flashes average but overthrows at times and loses movement, with consistency of movement and command holding it back significantly. Good velocity separation from FB and good arm speed. Very aggressive thrower that may never have true feel for the pitch. Grade – 30/40
Control:  Strike-throwing machine. Shows ability to pound the zone with plus-plus control. Most of the effort in his delivery comes at the point of release or after, allowing him to throw strikes routinely. Throws too many strikes with SL but that should change with maturity and added trust in his catchers. Grade – 70/70
Command:  Comes and goes. Will shows spurts of command. Excellent athleticism and knows his delivery. Below-average command profile at present but has potential for average command, particularly with FB and SL. CH command may always lag. Grade – 40/50

Summation: Legit prospect. FB and SL are both legit MLB caliber pitches, with FB having outstanding potential, both with pure velo and exceptional sinking action. Velo could spike in shorter stints, has been up to 99 in the past, without losing movement. Ground ball guy with strikeout ability. Intriguing combination. Slider helps more with ground balls than with swing and miss. Can work through lineups multiple times because of movement making it difficult for hitters to square. CH lags behind but should be useable show-me pitch. Excellent control profile that should keep walks to a minimum. Command should come and has average potential because of athleticism and current control ability. Number three starter ceiling with some hints of more if CH takes miraculous steps forward. Quick mover with aggressive attitude on the mound and quality makeup.

Relative Risk: Moderate. Early performance record mitigates a large amount of risk, it’s just a matter of how his body holds up over multiple years of big innings.

Future: Spring performance will dictate Double-A or Triple-A assignment to start 2013, and he could see the big leagues for a brief trial before the end of the year. Potential mid-rotation guy long term and he could slot into the rotation for a full season in 2014.

Monday – Scouting Report: JR Graham (RHP)
Tuesday – Baltimore Orioles Accountability Check, Top 15 Prospects
Wednesday – Scouting Report: Eduardo Rodiguez (LHP)
Thursday – Boston Red Sox Accountability Check, Top 15 Prospects
Friday – Scouting Report: Blake Swihart (C)

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter with the handle @ProspectMark for my overall prospect coverage and @TigsTownMark for my Tigers specific prospect coverage. On either feed you may find random notes about bourbon, beer, and other miscellany…

1. JR Graham – RHP (Last Year’s Rank: NR)
Sometimes it can be hard to overlook the lack of a prototype in a prospect. Standing just six-feet tall, Graham lacks the prototypical size of a starting pitcher. He makes up for his size with outstanding athleticism, a lightning quick arm and quality stuff. His heavy, sinking fastball sits in the 93-94 mph range and he consistently reaches 95. His slider gives him a second pitch with at least an above-average grade and helps make him a ground ball machine. He needs to round things out with an improved change-up, but Graham has the ceiling of a high number three starter.

2. Julio Teheran – RHP (1)
In today’s Accountability Check, it may have sounded like I had really begun to sour on Teheran. That’s not the case at all. He is still a very interesting and very good prospect, but I believe it is time to begin resetting our expectations. He’s a smallish right-hander with an excellent fastball and change-up combination, but lacks a consistent breaking ball and a command profile. In most circumstances, that points to a relief role. I’m not ready to go quite that far yet, but without development in the breaker and the command, Teheran’s ceiling stop much closer to a number three.

3. Zeke Spruill – RHP (10)
Spruill continued to gain consistency in 2012 and he looks like a solid number four starter at the big league level. His sinking fastball that generates plenty of ground balls will sit at 92-93 mph and touch 95. He trusts his heater and attacks hitters with it early in at-bats. His breaking ball shows as an above-average pitch and his change-up is certainly useable. He could use some polishing at Triple-A in 2013 but his big-league debut may not be far off.

4. Christian Bethancourt – C (4)
A .243/.275/.291 line in Double-A is certainly an uninspiring performance, but I haven’t wavered in my belief in him as a top flight prospect. With a cannon arm, quick feet and improving receiving ability, Bethancourt could be a monster behind the dish. I have personally clocked him as low as 1.65 on his pop times. His bat has some thump in it when he connects but he is a raw hitter that needs considerable development. His potential is undeniable, but he still has some large developmental hurdles.

5. Luke Sims – RHP (NR)
The Braves top pick in last year’s draft, Sims could be a fast-riser in a thin system. He sits with a plus fastball and will reach 97 mph when he needs a little more. Both his slider and curveball show promise and if he can split his developmental time across both, he could have two above-average breakers. He shows a change-up as well, with some solid feel. He is a very intriguing prospect with an outstanding ceiling.

6. Edward Salcedo – 3B (8)
Salcedo may not have the sexiest performance history and sometimes he looks out of sync on the field, but he has big-league tools and tremendous makeup. Having moved off shortstop, he profiles solidly at third base. He has pop in his bat but his aggressive approach limits the utility of his power in game situations. While he has already reached High-A at age 20, he could still need 2-3 years before arriving on the big league radar.

7. Mauricio Cabrera – RHP (NR)
Cabrera could be the next monster pitching prospect developed by the Braves. Just 18-years old, he runs his fastball up to 95 mph and sits in the low-90s with minimal effort. His change-up is already a solid pitch that he sets up well and will throw in any count. He will also flash a quality slider, but isn’t as consistent with that pitch. His feel for pitching belies his age and he has a chance to move very quickly once the Braves take off the kid gloves. Ultimately, he has a chance to develop into a number two starter, though he comes with considerable risk at this time.

8. Alex Wood – LHP (NR)
Another 2012 draft choice (2^nd round), Wood has mid-rotation potential. His fastball works from 89-92 mph and can get higher when he needs additional velocity, and it complements his change-up very well. Both pitches are solid-average offerings that he mixes well. He lacks a refined breaking ball and the lack of that type of pitch allows some left-handed hitters to hang in better against him.

9. Sean Gilmartin – LHP (7)
Gilmartin may lack a considerable ceiling but he also offers a pretty high floor. It is hard not to view him as a big league pitcher, albeit one with a number five ceiling. His fastball scrapes 89 mph and he commands it well to all four parts of the strike zone. His entire profile relies heavily on his ability to locate and mix pitches, keeping hitters off balance, but he does all of that well. Gilmartin is very polished and could be pushed into service at the big-league level at any time.

10. Nick Ahmed – SS (13)
A UConn product, Ahmed has a solid all-around game but lacks a carrying tool. His defense at shortstop is at least adequate and he should stick at the position as long as the Braves want him to. He also offers good speed and base running instincts, allowing him to steal 20+ bases annually. Offensively, Ahmed won’t hit much better than .260 but he offers doubles power and a good approach during his at-bats. It’s easy to see a scenario where Ahmed becomes a solid everyday shortstop, though possibly not for Atlanta with Andrelton Simmons in the way.

11. Tommy La Stella – 2B (NR)
This may be an unconventional rating, but I can’t help but be a huge believer in La Stella’s bat. The guy can flat out hit and I truly see him doing it all the way up the ladder. His gap power and ability to make contact makes him a threat in several lineup spots and his approach should succeed quickly at the upper levels. He has a small window for success because of his relatively advanced age, but the he has a very real chance to be an offensive-minded second baseman that can handle his defensive responsibilities at the keystone.

12. Jose Peraza – SS (NR)
The Braves haven’t had much trouble developing shortstop prospects in recent years and Peraza could be the next in that line. He has a natural feel for hitting and should be a plus hitter long term. His bat speed hints at some gap power and possibly 8-10 home runs a year as well. He is a good runner that can steal bases and that also translates to plus range in the field. His defense shows flashes of being at least an above-average asset, making him a well-rounded player with an everyday ceiling.

13. Evan Gattis – C (NR)
With a more typical developmental path, Gattis would be a big time prospect. His offensive potential is very strong, highlighted by plus-plus raw power. He makes very good contact, allowing his power to play in games and giving him the potential for 20+ home runs a year. His bat looks the part of a middle-of-the-order threat. Defensively, he has yet to find a consistent home. His defense behind the plate hasn’t developed as expected and an experiment in the outfield hasn’t been a success so far. Injury issues slowed his progress this year, and at this point, he just needs game experience to get him ready for a big league shot in some capacity.

14. Matt Lipka – OF (9)
A supplemental pick in 2010, Lipka has been pushed aggressively by the Braves, reaching High-A this year despite injury issues. On top of that he has been forced to deal with a position switch to the outfield, where he has settled in quickly and looks like a quality defender. His bat hasn’t come as quickly as expected, but he shows good hitting ability and some hints of fringy home run power with plenty of doubles as well. His speed can impact the game and his ceiling rests atop a big league lineup.

15. Joe Terdoslavich – 3B/1B (11)
One of the best pure hitters in the system, Terdoslavich has really good pitch recognition and barrel control, allowing him to hit for a very high average. His power is more gap-to-gap than classic corner-infield power, but he certainly can drive the ball. The Braves tried to push him back across the diamond to third base for part of last season but the results were not favorable with scouts. His defensive profile fits better at first base, where his bat isn’t ideal, but he likely has a big league future as a second division type.

Mississippi Braves(4 Pre-Game/16 Post-Game)

First Column(Top to Bottom): Joey Terdoslavich, Evan Gattis, Alden Carrithers, Joe Leonard, Cory Rasmus. Second Column: David Hale, David Hale, Zeke Spurill, Zeke Spurill. Third Column(4×6): Ryan Butcher, Christian Bethancourt. 4th Column: Brent Leach, Jose Lugo.
3 Identical cards: JR Graham.
Baseball: Christian Bethancourt
Cards(L-R): Brent Leach, Joe Leonard, Garey Ingram

Chattanooga Lookouts (26 Pre-Game/1 Post- Game)

1st Row: Chris Withrow, Chris Withrow, Jake Lemmerman, Jake Lemmerman, Allen Webster, Allen Webster
2nd Row: JT Wise, JT Wise, JT Wise, JT Wise, Matt Magill, Matt Magill
3rd Row: Zach Lee, Carlos Subero, Luis Nunez, Rafael Ynoa, Anthony Jackson, Griff Erickson
4th Row: Blake Smith, Geison Aguasviva, Nick Buss, Matt Wallach, Aaron Miller, Steven Ames
5th Row: Nick Buss 4×6, Red Patterson, Angelo Ponte

Christian Bethancourt Baseball-SweetSpot

Chattanooga Lookouts Clubhouse

Lookouts Fan Mail Cubbies

#26 Dernell Stenson. RIP Man.

Seats, compliments of the Chattanooga Lookouts

As for the game itself, the Lookouts won 8-3, behind Matt Magill’s 7.1 inning, 12 strikeout performance. The 3 runs were all unearned. Jake Lemmerman hit a bomb in the 6th inning, bringing out the famous Lookouts train in Right-Center Field.

Can’t wait to return here!

Follow me on Twitter: @joey_garrison

Florida State LHP Sean Gilmartin is definitely a grower. I saw him his freshman year, and thought he was a pretty good prospect. Then during his sophomore year, he improved to the point I was ready to drop the “pretty” qualifier and just call him a good prospect. When I saw him this past year, I was pretty damn impressed with the pitcher in front of me. By that logic, you’d think I’d be on board with the Braves popping the Florida State ace in the first round, right? Not so fast, my friend. His progression, in the eyes of this amateur evaluator, went from 10^th rounder (freshman year) to 5^th rounder (sophomore year) to 3^rd rounder (draft day 2011).Gilmartin’s final destination as a first rounder was a legitimate surprise.

Most seem willing to give Atlanta the benefit of the doubt in taking the polished college lefty in the first round (something most did not do at the time of the Mike Minor selection, by the way), but it is a real head scratcher for me. My rankings are far from the final word in prospect evaluation, but I have to believe there was more value (value being an interesting topic in its own right) to be had with the 28th overall pick than my 53rd ranked pitcher. I loved the Minor selection at the time and have heard some compare the two college lefties, a comparison I don’t think I can get behind. At his best, Gilmartin throws four pitches for strikes — average FB, good CU, average SL, occasional above-average CB — and profiles as a solid back of the rotation arm. I’d want more upside out of my first round pick than that. However, and this is the fun part where I willing completely blow up my whole argument, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking this year about value. Value in a draft where picks cannot be traded is entirely up to the drafting team. If the Braves really liked Gilmartin and didn’t think he’d be there at their next pick, they did the smart thing in selecting him when they could. That may come off as a tad simplistic, but I think it is true. Trust your scouts, create your board, and get to picking. Haters (such as yours truly) are going to hate.

Florida State JR LHP Sean Gilmartin: 87-89 FB, peak 91-92; sweeping 73-77 above-average CB that he has deemphasized in favor of CU and SL; very good 74-76 CU that keeps improving; 80-81 SL could be average pitch with time; good athlete; good hitter; 6-2, 190

The biggest sure thing on Florida State’s roster heading into 2011 is JR LHP Sean Gilmartin, a four-pitch Friday night starter that I can’t help but consistently underrate. Even though he has a very good mid-70s changeup and an above-average low-70s curveball, his inconsistent fastball, both in terms of velocity (sits mid- to upper-80s, peaks at 91-92) and command, worries me against professional hitters. Does a so-so fastball really undo the positives that three other potentially average or better (his low-80s slider isn’t great presently, but has the upside as a usable fourth pitch) secondary pitches bring to the table? As a guy who championed the pre-velocity spike Mike Minor, I’m inclined to say no, yet my instincts keep me away from endorsing Gilmartin as a potential top three round prospect. 

Connecticut SS Nick Ahmed is a favorite of mine who certainly looks the part of a big league ballplayer. His ceiling is an above-average regular at shortstop (plus bat, average at best glove) or third base/center field (average bat, above-average or better glove). Worst case scenario would be a utility player capable of playing literally anywhere on the field (yes, I’ve heard the rumors that some teams like him pre-draft as a catcher) or a potential mound conversion with the three pitches and athletic delivery to someday start in the big leagues.

I try not to let a quick look at a player influence my opinion on him too much, but Nick Ahmed gave off that somewhat silly yet undeniable big league look when I see him play earlier this year. He’s got an easy plus arm, strong defensive tools and athleticism that should play at multiple spots, and enough bat speed to drive good fastballs to the gaps. My only “concern,” if you even want to call it that, is that he’ll outgrow shortstop. The reason why I’m not ready to call that a legitimate concern just yet is because, based on his current tall and lanky frame, I would hope any physical growth he experiences professionally would be accompanied by additional strength, especially in his upper body, to help his eventual power output. In other words, if he gets too big for shortstop then at least he’ll then have the chance of having the power bat needed to play elsewhere.

The Braves made it hard on me this year by selecting so many early round college guys that I’ve run out of things to say about. Texas State 3B Kyle Kubitza is a gifted natural hitter whose success will be defined by his ability to stick at third base. There is also the added bonus of Kubitza’s affiliation with Texas State, a school with a coaching staff that has received a lot of positive chatter about the way they prepare players for the pros.

Kubitza has many of the key attributes you’d want in a third base prospect – good raw power, solid arm strength, and a patient approach at the plate. The biggest question he’ll have to answer is on the defensive side, but I’m on board with the idea that good pro coaching can help him through some of his concentration lapses in the field.

Strikeouts and groundballs are a recipe for success in pro ball. Santa Clara RHP JR Graham gets both in bunches. I love seeing future relievers get starting pitcher workloads early on (doubly so when they excel in said role), but concerns about his frame (6-0, 180 pounds) and delivery temper some of the recent enthusiasm that he might stick as a starter. From a stuff standpoint, I think he can do it: he has the plus “rising” four-seamer, nasty sinking two-seamer, and enough of a head start on developing his slider (flashes plus, but inconsistent) and changeup (much improved in last calendar year). As I’m reviewing this year’s draft I’m beginning to wonder if college relievers, once overdrafted with alarming regularity, are now a sneaky undervalued draft commodity. I understand the relative value of relievers to other players, but also think a bullpen with three or four top ten round college arms with middle relief floors has value in a) the joys of a quick return on the investment, and b) cost certainty at a spot so many teams pay far more than necessary. If a fourth round pick like Graham winds up as a pitcher the manager trusts to pitch the seventh inning, you’ve got yourself three dirt cheap years of service and an increased opportunity to spend on any of the 24 other spots on the roster.

Santa Clara JR RHP JR Graham: 94-98 peak; average 83-85 SL with plus potential but still very inconsistent like the Billy Wagner get me over slider; developing sinker; has hit 100-101; really shown improvement with CU; 6-0, 180

Blinn JC (TX) C Nick DeSantiago can hit a little bit, but I’m not sure he’ll catch. The former Longhorn has gotten off to a rocky start as a pro.

Fifth-year senior Vanderbilt RHP Mark Lamm was 100% a signability pick, but that doesn’t make him a bad prospect. The sixth round still feels a little rich for a guy who wasn’t the best senior sign pitcher on his college team (Taylor Hill) or the best Vanderbilt reliever drafted by Atlanta (Navery Moore).

My notes on Lamm were short and sweet: 90-94 FB; Tommy John survivor. The development of a pair of above-average offspeed pitches — a slider and a change — got him drafted way ahead of where I would have guessed. He’s up there as one of the top senior signs around and could be a quick mover through the system.

Remember what I said about drafting college relievers early on becoming the new market inefficiency? Yeah, the Braves went a little overboard with that strategy. Gonzaga RHP Cody Martin is yet another senior sign reliever. He’s a physically mature righthander with a chance to pitch in a big league bullpen someday. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before.

Gonzaga SR RHP Cody Martin (2011): 88-90 FB, sitting 92-93 out of bullpen; good 70-75 slurve-like CB that is much better as firmer mid-70s CB in 2011; good 86 CU

This is a little bit like the Matt Harvey to the Mets thing from a few years ago; it is such a pain in the neck seeing prospects I’ve invested so much time covering wind up with hated division rivals. I had Coastal Carolina 2B Tommy La Stella as a fifth rounder, yet am already kicking myself for having him so low. There are at least a half dozen college second base prospects with the chance to start in the big leagues someday, La Stella included. If he can handle the position defensively, he has star upside.

The number one knock I heard on La Stella heading into the season was his tendency to get too anxious at the plate and swing at pitcher’s pitches too often. This clearly wasn’t reflected in the numbers — notice the awesome batting averages and BB/K ratios — but it was a concern from smart people who had seen him often. When I receive scouting tips that contradict what the numbers reflect, I get dizzy. Trust the reports from people who are paid to this, banking on the idea that sometimes a scouting observation shows up before a dip in on-field production? Or acknowledge that sometimes even the best see things that sometimes aren’t really there? In La Stella’s case, I’m inclined to go with the latter. La Stella’s pure hit tool is on par with darn near any college prospect in this year’s draft.

Tough to make it in this world as an all-bat prospect, but Cameron OF Chase Larsson has a chance. As good a natural hitter as he is, this is a worthy gamble at this point in the draft.

I never really followed up on Western Kentucky SS Logan Robbins despite jotting his name down as an interesting 2011 college shortstop to follow. He has the classic speed/range/arm trio that will get a guy plenty of middle infield looks professionally, but I’m less certain than most that he’ll ever figure it out at the plate. He’s a little bit like the Bizzaro-La Stella in that way.

Atlanta’s most significant late round addition was Vanderbilt RHP Navery Moore (Round 14). He is another player that I’m all out of original thoughts on, so I’ll do an ugly grammatical recap: love his never straight plus fastball, don’t love his control or lack of a reliable second pitch, still think he is smart and athletic enough to thrive in a big league bullpen after a year or three working on his breaking ball in the minors. Writing is much easier when you don’t have to worry about following the rules.

Vanderbilt JR RHP Navery Moore: 92-96 plus FB, 99 peak; plus 81-84 SL that comes and goes; flashes plus CB; iffy control; Tommy John survivor; very occasional CU; “Intergalactic” is his closer music; has the stuff to start, but teams might not risk it from a health and delivery standpoint; 6-2, 205

Moore’s velocity was down late in the year. That’s a significant problem when your most marketable skill is a big fastball. That said, I still think he’s a good bet to settle in as a big league reliever someday due to his good athleticism and above-average raw stuff. The drop in velocity has to be addressed, however, whether or not it turns to be a mere matter of fatigue (treatment: rest, rest, more rest…and perhaps a tweak or two to his delivery) or a more serious health concern (treatment: shut him down, get him to a top surgeon, and hope he comes out healthy on the other side).

Like Moore, Arizona LHP Matt Chaffee (Round 12) is another solid relief prospect coming off an injury plagued college career. His raw stuff isn’t as good as Moore’s, but he gets a boost for his consistency and for being lefthanded. If healthy I’d like to see him get a chance to start, but his future is likely in the middle innings.

Arizona JR RHP Matt Chaffee (2011): 89-92 FB; average CU; mid-70s CB

I’ve always liked Oklahoma City SS Kirk Walker (Round 26). He may be limited to second base professionally as he lacks the foot speed for shortstop and the arm for third. If a pro training program can tick up both areas just a notch, he could have a future as a utility infielder.

Oklahoma City SR 3B Kirk Walker: gap power; average arm; slow; good athlete; could play 2B

The Braves only signed one player past the 37^th round. We’ll save ourselves a little bit of time and not focus on all of the ones who got away, and instead focus on two of the bigger names that didn’t sign. Iolani HS (HI) LHP Carlos Rodriguez (Round 20) had an up and down spring and a strong commitment to Oregon State, so he was considered a tough sign to begin with. He’ll wisely take his intriguing three-pitch mix and skinny frame to college. Another really tough sign was Army RHP Kevin McKague (Round 50). It should come as no surprise that an agreement wasn’t reached between the Army man and Atlanta. A return to health and a more clearly defined outlook on his military future could have the nearly big league ready McKague shooting up draft boards next year.

Army SR RHP Kevin McKague: 92-96 FB; mid-80s SL; great splitter; missed most of 2011 due to back injury; 6-5, 230 pounds

Late edit! I missed the 37th round selection of Austin Peay RHP Ryne Harper. He’s got the fastball/slider needed to make it as a bullpen contributor if he gets the proper breaks.

Austin Peay SR RHP Ryne Harper (2011): 94 peak FB; very good SL; had offer from Vanderbilt out of high school