What’s that old adage? Oh, that’s right, defense wins championships. What’s the other one? Oh yeah, Belichick doesn’t lose back to back games in a season or to a divisional opponent.

So the Pats start with a three and out opening drive. Not looking very confident. But then the D stuffs the Jets after allowing only one first down. Is this going to be a defensive matchup? I want the Pats to destroy and embarrass the Jets. Humiliate them for that game in week two. Remember we didn’t have Welker in that game.

Pats driving. They convert on a fourth down attempt. Excellent. Then Maroney fumbles. Two weeks in a row, the team driving and looks to be clicking and Maroney fumbles the ball. I sure hope that Morris and Taylor are on the mend. I can’t stand another week of fumbilitis Sandyvagititus.

On the next drive for the Jets facing a third and eight Bodden intercepts for the pick six. So I’m psyched that the Pats have gotten into Sanchez’s head but at the same time a little sad that my fantasy team may lose this game as Brady and Welker won’t see the field again for a little bit.

After stopping the Jets for another 3 and out, the Pats drive the field 76 yards in a shade under four minutes ending with a Moss TD. Brady looks really good in the five wide shotgun set especially with Welker his safety valve in the game.

Another three and out by the Jets turns into a Maroney touchdown. Some think that makes up for the fumble. I don’t. Stop the fumbling!

Following another Bodden pick the Pats get a field goal and go up 24-0. Now here’s where I have problems. It’s 24-0 with about two minutes left in the half and the Pats have the ball. Mankins gets called on a holding and the Pats are facing a first and twenty. Brady manages to get it manageable on third down but then gets strip sacked. The Pats manage to hang onto the ball and look to punt. Which of course is blocked and the Jets score. 24-7 at the half following a missed field goal by Gostkowski.

The second half starts with a stupid challenge. There was no way that you could possibly tell what was going on in that scrum on the sidelines. If you lose the challenge it’s your last one and you lose a second half time out. Simms said it was smart by I totally disagree. The Pats started digging their own graves at that point.

So of course the Jets march 85 yards culminating in a Cochery TD. They chewed up 5:15 or so in the process and all of a sudden the Pats 24 point lead is cut to ten. Everyone’s Facebook status’s were asking the same thing, “What the fuck happened to the Pats at halftime?”.

Thank God for Speedy White Guy Wes Welker. Bodden picks Sanchez for the third time and Welker carries the offense on his back. Reevis can say how he shut down Moss all day (except that TD) but no one could stop Welker. He ended the day with 15 catches for 192 yards and no scores. You thought on that last touchdown attempt the would try to get it to him on the slant. A Thank You for all he did all day. Nope. Two failed Brady sneaks and then they give the ball to Maroney. Rewarding him again with a TD. My brother who was at the game said the fans at Gillette were not too happy with “Happy Feet” and told him as much.

Meriweather gets a pick and Banta-Cain gets a strip sack and fumble recovery in the final few minutes of play. The defense was awesome. Sure the Jets are falling fast in the division, but still, they kept the Pats out of the endzone in their first meeting.

So it’s not the 56 point shutout I predicted but the Pats allowed only one offensive touchdown. They covered the spread and the combined was right at the 45 over/under. I hope this ball hungry (that doesn’t sound right) defense is ready to do the same thing next week against New Orleans.

Shortened week this week with Thanksgiving and Causeway Day. But I’ll still be here to bring you some news.

1ST QUARTER
- Chargers (QB)Philip Rivers passes to (WR)Legedu Naanee for TD
- Bengals (QB)Carson Palmer rushes for TD
- Cardinals (QB)Kurt Warner passes to (WR)Anquan Boldin for TD
- Patriots(D/ST) Patriots (CB)Leigh Bodden 53 Yd. Interception Return for TD

2ND QUARTER
- Cardinals (QB)Kurt Warner passes to (WR)Larry Fitzgerald for TD
- Patriots (QB)Tom Brady passes to (WR)Randy Moss for TD
- Bengals (QB)Carson Palmer rushes for TD
- Patriots (RB)Laurence Maroney rushes for TD
- Cardinals (RB)Chris Wells rushes for TD
- Raiders (QB)Bruce Gradkowski passes to (TE)Zach Miller for TD
- Jets(D/ST) Jets (WR)Brad Smith scores TD on blocked punt by (S)Eric Smith

3RD QUARTER
- Chargers (RB)LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for TD
- Jets (QB)Mark Sanchez passes to (WR)Jerricho Cotchery for TD

4TH QUARTER
- Rams (RB)Steven Jackson rushes for TD
- Patriots (RB)Laurence Maroney rushes for TD
- Chargers (FB)Mike Tolbert rushes for TD
- Raiders (QB)Bruce Gradkowski passes to (WR)Louis Murphy for TD

Week 4 of the NFL season has concluded. Some thoughts about games around the league:

*I guess Tennessee really is that bad..

*Denver is still undefeated. Oh well, it won’t last another week..

*Detroit’s winning streak of 1 came to an end this week against Chicago. Shame.

*San Francisco might be the real deal this year. I mean they did just play the Rams, who basically have the skill equivalent of a good college team, but every aspect of the 49ers game seems to be a major improvement over last year. Glad I picked up their defense for my fantasy team this week (39 pts!). I might actually add/drop any defense that’s playing the Rams this year – no joke.

Okay, let’s get to the AFC East:

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Final:

Baltimore (3-1): 21

New England (3-1): 27

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The Pats came out winners on Sunday against a very good Baltimore team. I knew this one would be a close game decided by a touchdown or less, and it was just exciting at the end as I thought it would be. Brady looked much more comfortable with Welker back, who was targeted more than any other receiver by far. Brady completed 21/32 for 258 yards and 1 TD (he also had a one yard rushing TD). This is the kind of execution by the offense I think we’ve all been waiting for. Brady made Ed Reed look foolish on multiple accounts while guys like Faulk, Taylor, and Morris got it done on the ground (the same cannot be said for Maroney). Brady completed his first touchdown pass to a wide reciever this season (Moss). On the defensive side of the ball, guys like Meriweather, who made key deflections, and Bodden, who had an interception in the red zone, made great plays. Mike Wright had two sacks on the day. However, Ray Rice had 11 carries for 103 yards. Getting Mayo back will certainly help in preventing rushing performances like that again.

Other Notes:

-The Pats brought tons of pressure on defense and forced Flacco into some bad decisions. It looks like Belichick is starting to trust his defense more with the type of packages he’s running.

-Mark Clayton dropped a pass on 4th down in the red zone with 28 seconds remaining. The catch would have set up a first and goal and an opportunity for the Ravens to take the lead (Good thing Galloway gave him some personal tips before the game).

-Speaking of Joey Galloway, he was a healthy inactive for the game. Yes, he was ready to play and perfectly healthy, but Belichick kept him off the field anyway. If that doesn’t send him a message, I don’t know what will. If Galloway doesn’t perform well in practice and leading up to next week, I think he’s off the team. That’s what I love about Belichick – you don’t produce, then GTFO.

-Ray Lewis after the game complained about the officiating. Okay, so maybe some penalties against the Ravens might have been uncalled for. Still, Lewis should know better than anyone else how this league works. When Terrell Suggs nearly took out Brady’s legs, everyone in the world knew a flag was going to be thrown, whether it was done on purpose or not. The NFL is a business, and this rule in place to protect their most important assets, the elite quarterbacks of the league. Some rules may not be fair, but they are rules. We don’t all like them, but we have to understand why they’re in place. Whining after the game about calls like this is nonsense, and it doesn’t impress me. I thought Lewis would be above such behavior, but apparently not. After a loss, the weaker ones will look for excuses, but the real players will deal with it and move on to focus on the next match up.

-I want to ask Joe Flacco how it feels to be physically abused by men wearing pink.

Next Week’s Match Up: New England (3-1) @ Denver (4-0)

Denver (who should really be 3-1) is yet another undefeated team the Pats will make…defeated. I mean, how can they lose to Kyle *bleeping* Orton? I have a feeling Belichick is going to make life miserable for ex-Patriot offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. My prediction – New England: 27 Denver: 13

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Final:

New York Jets (3-1): 10

New Orleans (4-0): 24

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Was I right, or was I right? Okay, so maybe New Orleans didn’t score 48 points like I predicted. In retrospect, that might have been a bit of a stretch..but I was 100% right about Sanchez playing like a typical CFL quarterback. I actually gave the Jets too much credit by saying they’d score 17 points. I should have known better. Sanchez turned the ball over four times and had a QB rating of 27 (LOL!). Sanchez now has an overall QB rating of 71.2, ranking him 24 out of 32 for current starting quarterbacks, and just ahead of Derek Anderson and Jake Delhomme (good company!). Matt Stafford is practically rescuing an entire franchise up in Detroit while Sanchez is throwing the ball aimlessly around the field as his defense attempts to pick up the pieces. I think I know who my offensive rookie of the year vote is going to…

Next Week’s Match Up: NYJ @ Miami

I think Miami has a good chance in this one. I mean, they’re a pretty good team. That 1-3 record is…decieving. Who am I kidding!? Some teams you just know have no chance, even against a helpless rookie like Sanchez. Miami without Pennington is bound to be a disaster against a decent team. My Prediction – New York: 31 Miami: 10 (3 Defensive TDs for New York)

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Final:

Buffalo (1-3): 10

Miami (1-3): 38

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Yes, the Bills are this bad. They gave up over 200 yards on the ground for the second game in a row, and allowed Henne to complete 14 of 22 for 115 and a TD. Marshawn Lynch ammassed 4 yards on 8 carries in his first game back after his 3 game suspension to start the season. T.O. caught 3 passes for 60 yards (a big step up from his 0 catches for 0  yards last week). Trent Edwards threw 3 picks in the game. There’s not much more to say. Buffalo sucks.

Next Week’s Match Up: Buffalo vs. Cleveland

The Bills are bad, but believe it or not Mangini’s Browns are probably worse. This might be the most unexciting and meaningless game of the week. Maybe the entire season. My Prediction – Buffalo: Who Cares, Cleveland: Whatever

P.S.: For those who thought the acquisition of T.O. would revive the Bills franchise, I have one question:  “Really, America? Really?”

AFC EAST STANDINGS

New York                 3-1

New England              3-1

Miami                         1-3

Buffalo                       1-3

Some thoughts on yesterday’s Ravens – Patriots game.

-I never thought I’d ever say this, but I would have liked to see Baltimore run the ball more than they did yesterday. There were only 17 rushing attempts the entire game. Credit New England, who shut down the run for most of the afternoon. With the exception of Ray Rice’s 50 yard scamper in the third quarter, they did a very good job of keeping the Ravens running game in check. But I believe with a little more balance; maybe the Ravens finish a few more drives.

-Joe Flacco was good, but not great yesterday. I was extremely pleased with how he did in third down situations. On third downs, he was 8 for 11 and had a QB rating of 125. But on 1^st and 10 with 1:11 remaining in the first half, and driving inside the New England 20, he threw a costly interception to Leigh Bodden. The Ravens were in field goal range and that pick cost them at least 3 points.

-I think it is very weak for anyone to blame Mark Clayton’s drop on fourth down for yesterday’s loss. There were plenty of opportunities for the Ravens to score points throughout the game. Chris Carr’s fumble on the opening kickoff allowed New England to get 3 easy points. Combine that fumble with Flacco’s interception in scoring territory, and that is potentially six, even 10 points in the Ravens’ favor. Mark dropped a big pass that happened to be late in the game. Was it a mistake? You bet. But there many other mistakes yesterday that added up to the loss.

-I’m never one to blame the referees. Overall the officiating was questionable, and the roughing the passer call on Terrell Suggs was just unacceptable. I realize what the league and the officials are trying to do. You have to protect the quarterback, and I get it. But there has to be a point where you let the players play. Ray Lewis was very upset with the call and I agree with what he said: “Without totally going off the wall here, it is embarrassing to the game. Brady is good enough to make his own plays; let him make the play.”)

-At the end of the day I am fine with this loss. The Ravens proved to me that they are very good team and that they can play with the big boys. They had numerous opportunities to take control of the game and they didn’t. They had a chance to win the game at the end and that’s all you can ask for. And I honestly believe they LOST the game more than New England won it. That doesn’t mean anything in the standings though, a win is a win and a loss is a loss. But this team has to feel awfully good about where they can go in 2009. If they stay healthy, I don’t see them losing more than 4 games the whole season.

Listening last night to the post game show they were referring to the Pats defense as the no name defense. I have to disagree with that statement given the fact they have Wilfork, Warren, Thomas, Meriweather and Sanders. Sure you may not know the names of all the linebackers and defensive backs but you know most of the guys out there.

A game that featured the Pats against one of the toughest defenses in the league the Pats stepped it up enough to take the win at home. Of course that doesn’t come without gripes. The Ravens lockers room was complaining that the officials basically gave the Pats the game. Two key penalties on Patriots scoring drives led to 14 points on the board. Baltimore wasn’t helped by turning the ball over two times.

But can we vent on the Patriots inability to put the ball in the end zone? The Pats given a gift on the kickoff when they forced a fumble and then went three and out. An incomplete pass to your fourth receiver, a run by Sandyvagititus Maroney for a whopping one yard and a third down sack. That’s why the Ravens red zone defense is the best in the league. Even attempting to run on them with Maroney was a joke.

While we’re talking about Maroney, let’s take a moment to recognize that he’s a worthless piece of garbage. The only play yesterday that he did anything decent was called back. Sure he had a nice catch for 17 yards but what about the fact he carried the ball seven times for six yards. Absurd. One of the runs was for a five yard gain, so that means that more than one of his runs was for negative yards. Next year when he’s playing for another team, you’ll see him featured as a third down back. Similar to Kevin Faulk, he’ll be catching passes out of the backfield for some team because that seems to be all he’s good at. If I never see him on the field for the Pats again, it’s fine by me.

Following a Flaco touchdown the Patriots were able to put together a drive of their own that ended with a Tom Brady dive for the score. Interesting that on the bootleg the play prior he didn’t get in the endzone. You can’t blame him for sliding with Ray Lewis bearing down on him.

Pats run it in with Morris (great to see Maroney no where near the field) and made it 17-7. Then Baltimore driving down for what looks to be a sure touchdown drive before the half and then Leigh Bodden makes an amazing interception dragging his toe as he fell out of bounds. Brady takes a knee and the Pats have a ten point halftime lead.

The second half started with the Pats punting to the Ravens after a failed drive. The Ravens then kicked a punt to Kevin Faulk who was popped and coughed up the ball. Then Leigh Bodden was the right man in the right place as he scooped up the fumble and the Pats retained possession. One the next play, Matt Light got beat (yup, again) and Brady was strip sacked. The Ravens picked it up and walked in the endzone. Now it’s a three point game. So much drama.

The two teams exchanged touchdowns again and that was followed by a Gostkowski field goal following a bizzarre botched fake field goal. I guess he would have had the first down and it would have counted if he was the outside guy opposed to the guy one spot in. Confusing as hell, but that field goal put the Pats up 27-21 where they satyed for the rest of the game.

Again there was drama as Baltimore was marching down the field but Mark Clayton’s inability to catch a ball that hit him in the chest on fourth down sealed the deal. Pats win a close game. Very exciting.

Five things on my radar this week:

1.  Packers at Vikings. Revenge is a dish best served old.  I have this feeling that the Vikings may not be served by the spectacular success of last week’s win vs. the San Francisco 49ers.  The Niners are a team that lacks the offensive punch and balance of the Packers.  The Niners lost Frank Gore early in the game and were unable to run out the clock with less than 2 minutes remaining.

I am wondering if newly-minted OLB Aaron Kampman is comfortable enough in his new position to bring the pain from the edge.  He was the best DE you’d never heard of for the past three seasons.  He notched 37 sacks playing in a 4-3 scheme.  He’s been moved and has only registered one sack through 3 games.  Does he break out in Minnesota?  I’m sure he’ll want to show former fellow-Hawkeye and current Viking LB  Chad Greenway a few tricks.

I think Al Harris and Charles Woodson are really going to be up for this game.  I think Brett Favre will be so charged up that he will have to work hard to resist his urges to embarrass the Packers.  The men he is most angry with will not be covering Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin.  If Favre loses focus, Harris and Woodson could take him to the wood shed.

2.  Ravens at Patriots. At 1:00 p.m. in Foxboro, MA, we’re going to find out who is for real and who is not.  Was the Patriots rushing attack of last week a one shot deal predicated on the weakness of the Falcons run defense?  Can they do it again against Baltimore?  Will they have to resort to gimmicks?  Will they have to use Fred Taylor less and deploy Kevin Faulk in the screen and draw game?  Who is going to keep Haloti Ngata off of Tom Brady?

For Baltimore, there are another set of compelling questions.  Is Joe Flacco really that good?  On Sunday, he goes up against Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs — and the mind of Bill Belichick.  Does Cam Cameron have the right gameplan?  If it’s the wrong gameplan, can he make changes before its too late?  Does a second receiver have to step up for Baltimore to keep the Ravens honest?  If Belichick is true to his template and decides to take away the Ravens best weapon, does he target the run game and that mammoth line, or does he take away Derrick Mason?  Can Bodden do that without help the way he did to Lee Evans (3 catches, 25 yards) and Roddy White (4 catches, 24 yards)?

Great matchup.

3.  Jets at Saints. This is a classic matchup of elite offense vs. elite defense.  The Saints have more weapons that Raytheon.  The Jets have played smash mouth, trash-talking defense to anyone and everyone.  They’ve already knocked off the Patriots and Titans.  So, what’s the storyline going to be: Can Mark Sanchez put up enough points to keep pace with Drew Brees?  Will the Jets try to take away the pass or the run?  If they drop 7 or 8 in coverage to force the run, can Kris Jenkins and company get enough push to play on the other side of the ball and stuff the Saints?

4.  Righting the Ship. Can the Steelers, Titans, Chargers and Seahawks get it together?  The Steelers are hosting the Chargers.  Only one of them can be viewed in a favorable light on Monday morning — unless the game is a classic.  The Seahawks are traveling to the Colts, so it will tough to get right at Lucas Oil.  It might be easier if Matt Hasselbeck doesn’t play.  Dwight Freeney is out.  That’s a good sign.  Peyton is in.  Reggie is in.  Dallas is in.  Pierre is in.  Donald is in.  That’s a very bad sign.

5.  New Faces in New Spaces. Tyler Thipen (Miami), Josh Johnson (TB), and Derek Anderson (CLE) are taking over.  Can they get it done?  Maybe Ted Ginn and Davon Bess can run the entire route without waiting for the ball.  Maybe Ronnie and Ricky won’t face a stacked box — nah.  That’s premature.  Josh Johnson is going to get a real education, isn’t he.  Remember the last time Derek Anderson sank his teeth into the Bengals??

Should be a great week.

We’ve used Football Relativity for many things this summer, from comparing quarterbacks to comparing rumors to comparing free-agent moves to comparing nicknames. But now it is time to use this Football Relativity pool for what it was originally created – comparing teams to each other.

This is our preseason Football Relativity poll. 10 is the level of the best team or teams; 1 is the level of the worst team or teams. Teams that are on the same level are listed alphabetically, so the order on each level is not a ranking per se. We have no limit on the number of teams on any level, and in the future we may even leave a level empty to show a gap between teams. And this comparison does not attempt to predict record; schedules and other issues could leave teams with worse records on levels above teams with better records. We’ll make division predictions once this post has settled in our minds a bit.

Without further ado, here is the preseason version of Football Relativity. It’s long, but all that means is that your team is covered closely, no matter who your team is. Enjoy.

10 – New England Patriots – The Patriots aren’t a perfect team, but they have enough ability across the board to compare favorably with anybody in the league. The return of QB Tom Brady is obviously a key, and as a welcome-back present the franchise gave its franchise quarterback some grizzled but productive vets – RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway, and TE Chris Baker. Those pieces should keep the offense potent, and the offensive line remains solid if unspectacular. The questions for New England are on defense, where Bill Belichick’s schemes are normally extremely dangerous. But New England’s core defensively has gotten kind of old, and the reinforcements have been spottier than you would expect. The premium players are NT Vince Wilfork and DE Ty Warren, who are perfect 3-4 guys, and ‘08 rookie Jerod Mayo, who brings a playmaking ability at inside ‘backer that the Patriots hadn’t had in recent years. In the secondary, the Pats need vets Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs to step up at corner, or else a rookie like Darius Butler needs to step up. But with youngsters like Butler, Patrick Chung, and Brandon Meriweather in the secondary, the Pats have the physical ability, and you have to believe Belichick and his staff can coach them up. As long as Brady stays healthy, this is going to be an elite team.

10 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The defending Super Bowl champs look like they’re loaded for bear again in ‘09. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the smoothest quarterback around, but he always shows up in the end. He has vets Hines Ward and Heath Miller as well as emerging youngsters Santonio Holmes (the Super Bowl hero) and Limas Sweed to throw to, which makes for a potent passing game. The running game should be better this year with Rashard Mendenhall back from injury to help Willie Parker carry the run game load. Melwede Moore gives some injury assurance there. Pittsburgh’s offensive line was pretty maligned last year, but it’s serviceable, and the Steelers drafted a couple of guys who could raise the level of athleticism in that unit. Defensively, the Steelers are loaded. They know how to draft guys who can play their system, and it shows. They’re 6 deep on the defensive line and at linebacker, with playmakers like James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, and the emerging Lawrence Timmons there to wreak havoc. Plus, safeties Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark can do the same. The cornerback position isn’t beautiful, but with enough pressure they can hold steady. Don’t forget that Pittsburgh played the ultimate murderer’s row on its schedule last year – the Steelers catch more of a break this year and may be able to coast a little more late in the season. Regardless, this is a team under Mike Tomlin that can contend again if it keeps its fire.

9 – New York Giants – The Giants are loaded on defense and in the running game, and that’s going to be enough to keep them at the top of the pack in the NFC this season. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, running behind an often unsung but rarely outplayed offensive line, will keep the offense moving down the field. QB Eli Manning makes enough throws to keep the team moving, and while he doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver, he has a variety of talented options that should allow him to spread the ball around the field. This team, like the early Patriots Super Bowl teams, may not have a 90-catch receiver but should have three or four or even five with 40 catches or more. That’s difficult for defenses to stop in its own right. On defense, the Giants have reloaded their defensive line by adding Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard and getting Osi Umenyiora back from injury. Those guys, plus Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka, give the Giants the best D-line in the league. Those linemen create havoc and make enough plays on their own to keep the rest of the defense humming along, but the Giants also have underrated back-seven guys like LB Antonio Pierce and emerging CB Aaron Ross and S Kenny Phillips. This is a deep team at the key DL and RB spots, and that should help the Giants stay at the top of the pack even when injuries come. They’re the class of the NFC as the season opens.

9 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans aren’t a flashy team, but they’re always tough, and that toughness will serve them well again this season. The toughness is reflected in the run game, which stars Chris Johnson and a slimmer LenDale White, but depends on a terrific offensive line led by Michael Roos, who one informal poll (via movethesticks) recently listed as one of the top three linemen in the entire league. The passing game isn’t wonderful, but QB Kerry Collins doesn’t make a lot of mistakes at this point in his career, and the addition of Nate Washington should add a little more pop to the air attack. Defensively, the Titans lose stud DT Albert Haynesworth but still have a four-deep rotation with guys who can make plays. LB Keith Bulluck and CB Cortland Finnegan remain among the league’s elite at their positions as well. The reason the Titans are so good is that they have found and then developed gems like Finnegan (a seventh-round pick) and OT David Stewart (a fourth-round pick). That depth will be tested as the Titans try to replace Haynesworth, but the sense here is that they’ll be able to get enough production at DT to remain a terrific team.

8 – Atlanta Falcons – The team that is making the leap into the upper echelons in the NFL this year is the Falcons, who will build on last year’s surprise to continue moving forward. QB Matt Ryan showed last year that he has the ability and the moxie to be an effective and sometimes even elite-looking quarterback despite his young age. Now, he has all-time great TE Tony Gonzalez as a target, joining top-tier WR Roddy White. Plus, the run game features Michael Turner, a terrific running back, and change-of-pace threat Jerious Norwood. The offensive line played OK last year, and if it can match that level of performance, the offense will once again be dangerous. Defensively, the Falcons rely heavily on DE John Abraham, a pass-rushing demon who had to be spotted last year to keep him healthy. Still, though, he played every game and was a threat throughout. He’s a game-changer who must stay healthy for Atlanta to threaten. Rookie Peria Jerry should help bring a second threat to the front four. The back seven doesn’t have a lot of playmakers, although LB Curtis Lofton could continue to emerge. But this is still a solid defense. The Falcons should follow up last year’s playoff performance with a division title this year, which is an accomplishment in a tough grouping like the NFC South. And a Super Bowl berth, while a bit of a stretch, is within the realm of possibility.

8 (con’t) – Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles would have been a level 9 team had they not had two major injuries as camp opened. While MLB Stewart Bradley and TE Cornelius Ingram weren’t cornerstones, they were potential contributors whose losses sting. Still, the Eagles are a dangerous team. QB Donovan McNabb has more weapons than he’s ever had, from star ‘08 rookie DeSean Jackson to veteran Brian Westbrook to rookies LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin. If Michael Vick finds a role, all the better for Philly. The biggest question on offense is how the offensive line will fare with two new tackles now that Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas are gone. Still, though, a solid offensive line has traditionally been Andy Reid’s speciality. On defense, the Eagles should maintain their attacking style even after the death of long-time coordinator Jim Johnson. DE Trent Cole and DT Mike Patterson are not well known, but they make some plays. The stars are CBs Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Sheldon Brown, who provide the ability for the Eagles to blitz. The Eagles aren’t quite of the same caliber as the Giants, but they’re a good team that should make the playoffs. And once they get to the postseason, they have the potential to make a run.

8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers once again have one of the most talented rosters in the league – the question is how often they will play to that talent. Last year, the Chargers only reached an elite level at the end of the season and in the playoff opener, a win over the Colts. But the talent is undoubtedly there. QB Philip Rivers is emerging as a big-time quarterback, and the leadership qualities he has show over the last season and a half are the kind that a championship-level team needs. He has stalwart TE Antonio Gates and burgeoning star WR Vincent Jackson among many targets. Of course, he also has a solid running game with LaDanian Tomlinson, who appears to be healthy once again, and Darren Sproles, a quick-twitch mighty mite who is able to set off the pyrotechnics at any time. Tomlinson isn’t what he was three or four years ago, but spelling him with Sproles will keep the Chargers moving on the ground. The offensive line isn’t great, but it’s good enough to keep Rivers upright and to open holes for the runners. On defense, the Chargers blossomed once Ron Rivera became defensive coordinator and let the dogs out on the blitz. The return of Shawne Merriman from injury and the addition of Larry English in the first round of the draft gives the Chargers much more pass-rushing pop than they had last season, and that pressure should help CB Antonio Cromartie rebound and continue his development into an elite corner. NT Jamal Williams remains the key to the run defense, and he’s as strong at the point of attack as anyone in the league. The Chargers have the tools; the question is consistency. But if they find that consistency, they’re a big-time Super Bowl threat.

7 – Arizona Cardinals – The Super Bowl loser hangover has been well documented over the years, and often these runners-up finish well out of the playoffs. That could happen to the Cardinals, but on paper this team is good enough to win the NFC West again to get into the postseason. The biggest questions are attitude and coaching, because both coordinators, Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergast, are gone.  The offense remains dangerous with QB Kurt Warner and stud WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. The addition of rookie RB Beanie Wells will help bring a little more balance to the offense as well, and with Russ Grimm as the run-game coordinator, the ground game could become a bit more featured. The offensive line is good enough to keep the offense running smoothly. While the Cardinals’ offensive power gets a lot of attention, the defense is full of playmakers too. DT Darnell Dockett is a disruptive force, and Arizona hopes and believes that DE Calais Campbell will be the same kind of force this season. At linebacker, Karlos Dansby is a terrific player, and in the secondary S Adrian Wilson is among the best in the league. Even more, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can join the ranks of top-flight playmakers this year after a strong rookie campaign. This is a talented team, especially on defense. The question is whether Arizona can play up to its potential as it finally did in the NFC playoffs last year. The hunch here is that Ken Whisenhunt is a strong enough coach to keep the Cardinals playing reasonably well.

7 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens aren’t the flashiest team, but they are a tough, physical team that is a pain to play and a tough out. In that way, they fit the personality of coach John Harbaugh. It all starts on defense, where the Ravens have several truly blue-chip players. DE Haloti Ngata is among the league’s best front-line players; Terrell Suggs is one of the best pass rushers; Ray Lewis is still a huge presence at middle linebacker; and Ed Reed is the class of the league at safety. It’s remarkable that they have such premiere players at each level of the defense, and that starpower shows game after game. Offensively, the Ravens have a smashmouth offensive line, although the tradeout of Matt Birk for Jason Brown at center is a bit of a downgrade. The running game is dangerous with Le’Ron McClain, Ray Rice, and vet Willis McGahee. The question is the passing game with second-year QB Joe Flacco. Flacco’s targets feature veterans Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, both of whom have been so banged up that they’ve lost their explosiveness, and youngsters like Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams who have talent and show flashes but aren’t consistent. Unless Flacco takes a sizable leap forward this year, the passing game will end up being what holds the Ravens back from being a division winner and major Super Bowl contender. Still, this is a team no one wants to play.

7 (con’t) – Green Bay Packers – Last year, the Packers had a great offense and an abysmal defense. That’s why they’re moving from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 plan. That kind of transition normally takes a couple of years to make fully because the personnel a team needs in the front 7 to make the switch takes a while to accumulate. But the Packers have done a better job than most teams of piling up that talent to make the switch more quickly. Rookie DE B.J. Raji and OLB Clay Matthews fit the scheme well, as well as holdovers NT Ryan Pickett and LB Nick Barnett. The questions are DE turned OLB Aaron Kampman, who must prove he can generate pass rush from a two-point stance, and LB A.J. Hawk, who hasn’t really lived up to his top-5 draft position yet. But the front seven is in good shape with the potential to be in great shape, which measn the team can take a big step forward. The secondary features veteran CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris, who played OK last year but must pick it up for the defense to truly shine. On offense, the Packers do shine, thanks to the rapid development of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has the luxury of throwing to a deep WR corps led by Greg Jennings and veteran Donald Driver, and RB Ryan Grant is good enough to keep defenses from pinning their ears back on the rush. The offensive line is not outstanding, but it did well enough for Rodgers last year. All in all, this is a talented team that could usurp the Vikings in the NFC Central after last year’s 6-10 debacle.

7 (con’t) – Minnesota Vikings – All the news in the offseason for the Vikings has been about Brett Favre, which is understandable but ironic because Favre is probably the weak link for the Vikings team. The question is whether the weak link will break and kill the entire chain. Favre fell apart at the end of last year, and his penchant for turnovers won’t overcome the biggest problem that Tarvaris Jackson had last year. Favre is just as likely to throw the killer pick as Jackson, and he’s more likely to break down because he can’t escape like Jackson can. Jackson is a promising prospect who is now lost to the Vikings emotionally, and that’s a killer. So Favre must play well, or else the Vikings have set themselves back 3-5 years. Brad Childress is all in with Favre, and that’s not a position I would like to be in. The move is a shame, because the Vikes are loaded everywhere else on the field. On offense, RB Adrian Peterson is probably the league’s best, and Chester Taylor is a wonderful complement. WR Bernard Berrian had a fine year as a deep threat in his first year in Minny, and Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe are decent targets as well. Even better, the offensive line is full of road-graders like Steve Hutchinson, still the best guard in the league, Bryant McKinnie, and rookie Phil Loadholt. Defensively, the Vikes star DE Jared Allen, who can play the run well and generate pass rush, and space-filling DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. Kevin is the more likely Williams to get penetration and blow up plays. LBs E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway are improving as players, and Minnesota has one of the better unsung corners in Antoine Winfield. This is a deep, talented team that would reach the 8 level with Jackson as the starting QB and could be a 9 with a top-8 quarterback. But Favre will cost the Vikings a game or two, and that will be enough to let the Packers or perhaps the Bears sneak past them in the standings. That means their all-in move will end up going bust.

6 – Carolina Panthers – For most of the regular season last year, the Panthers were a level-9 team and one of the best four squads in the league. But they melted down in a home playoff game vs. Arizona, in large part because Jake Delhomme turned the ball over five times. But the Panthers didn’t make many upgrades in the offseason because their salary cap was strapped by Julius Peppers’ franchise tag. The Panthers kept Peppers, at least for one more year, which means they’re all-in with him kind of like the Vikings are with Brett Favre. The gamble has a better chance of paying off in Carolina, because Peppers is still a Pro Bowl-level player. He bounced back from an absentee ’07 season with 14.5 sacks last year, and his pass-rush ability is what gives a solid defense claws. The Panthers lost space-eating DT Maake Kemeoatu to a training-camp injury, which could inhibit Damione Lewis’ underrated ability to get in the backfield. That could also make it harder for MLB Jon Beason to roam and make plays. Still, the Panthers have front-7 playmakers, and the secondary is strong with CBs Chris Gamble (coming off a sterling season) and Richard Marshall. The Panthers’ offense is a running-game clinic. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are the beneficiaries, but the real credit goes to a monstrous offensive line starring OTs Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah, OG Travelle Wharton, and C Ryan Kalil. There aren’t a lot of weak links in that group. The passing game runs hot and cold because Delhomme does, but it can also fling it to Steve Smith and hope for the best because Smith makes so many plays. This is a star-studded team that could be held back by Delhomme, but if he plays OK they’ll be a playoff contender. Atlanta is the NFC South favorite, but the Panthers remain a threat.

6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys- It’s unusual that the Cowboys have been overshadowed this offseason, although they created that shadow with Jerry Jones’ massive video board. Regardless, this is a team that hasn’t gotten much attention, but it still has much of the talent that Bill Parcells accumulated while he was there. That shows most on defense, where OLB DeMarcus Ware, perhaps the best pass-rusher in the league, and emerging NT Jay Ratliff lead a quality front seven. It would help if OLB Anthony Spencer, like Ware a former first-round pick, steps up to take some pressure off of Ware, who had 20 sacks last year. The secondary has had problems, although CB Terence Newman is a good player. The questions for the Cowboys are on offense. Now that Terrell Owens is gone, Dallas needs Roy Williams to emerge as a big-time receiver. The trade Dallas made for Williams paid for him at that level, and if he doesn’t deliver, the passing game will be a struggle for QB Tony Romo. But if Williams does step up, he and TE Jason Witten can be a dynamic receiving duo. The running game has capable legs in Marion Barber and second-year men Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. But the offensive line, which is huge and aging, needs to return to its form of a couple of years ago. This means you, Flozell Adams and Leonard Davis. The Cowboys have talent and can be a playoff team once again, but there are a lot of ifs that have to come through for that to happen, especially in the loaded NFC East.

6 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts - No team has been more consistent this decade than the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve won 12 games in each of the last six seasons, earning one Lombardi trophy in the process. But it’s a pipe dream to think that this team will continue its impressive 12-win streak in 2009. In fact, we’re making the outlandish prediction that the Colts won’t even win 10 games this year. Among the reasons why: The loss of head coach Tony Dungy will hurt, in part because Jim Caldwell isn’t good enough to keep the Colts’ stampede going. He’s a failed college coach, and we’ve researched and determined that this kind of hire very rarely works for NFL teams. Marvin Harrison is gone, and while he was declining, his absence, combined with the offseason turmoil surrounding coordinator Tom Moore and OL coach Howard Mudd, means that the offense won’t be quite the machine that it has traditionally been. QB Peyton Manning was good enough to overcome that last year, when he willed the Colts to 12 wins after a rough start, but it’s hard to see him overcoming even more obstacles with a similar level of success this year. The bigger problems are on defense, where S Bob Sanders is hurt (again) and where the new head coach canned coordinator Ron Meeks in an effort to get a more aggressive defense. That approach doesn’t fit the personnel well, which means that that Colts could be even more vulnerable on defense than they have been in recent years. Indy is still a winning team, but they’re not as good as the Titans in their division, and they’ll face challenges from the Texans and Jaguars as well. This season will mark the end of an era for the Colts.

6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins catapulted from 1-15 to 11-5 last year, and now the test is to see if they can stay at that level of performance. Given the talent on the roster, that seems unlikely. Miami is full of good but not great players, and they must play at or over the heads again next year if Miami is to make the playoffs again. Chad Pennington is the perfect quarterback for Miami’s style of play, because he makes the right decision and then executes well. He doesn’t have name targets, although Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess have shown talent. It would really help if the Dolphins got some big plays out of former first-round pick Ted Ginn Jr., who has great speed but inconsistent production. The running game features Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and we may eventually see Pat White running out of the Wildcat offense Miami sprung on the league last year. Miami sought to get bigger and better on the offensive line, signing Jake Grove to play center to join huge tackles Jake Long and Vernon Carey. On defense, the Dolphins created a pass rush thanks to Joey Porter’s renaissance year at outside ‘backer. It’s hard to see vets like Porter and NT Jason Ferguson as top NFL players for much longer, but they were standouts last year. Instead, the Dolphins will need youngsters like DE Philip Merling, safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, and rookie CB Vontae Davis to infuse the defense with impact in order to stay at the same level. It’s only reasonable to expect a step back from the Dolphins last year, but this team is well-coached enough by Tony Sparano and his staff and well-managed enough by Parcells to make that half step and still stay in playoff contention.

6 (con’t) – New Orleans Saints – It is the best of times, it is the worst of times in New Orleans. (Sorry that’s a Dickens reference and not a New Orleans reference; I’ll try to do better.) Sean Payton’s offense is outstanding, led by QB Drew Brees, who is making his case to join Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the group of the best signal-callers in the league right now. Brees nearly broke Dan Marino’s record for passing yards last year, and he should be lethal again this year. He has a deep stable of targets led by Marques Colston outside and Reggie Bush and Lance Moore inside, and there are enough other options that Brees always has an open guy to throw to. The running game lost stalwart Deuce McAllister but still has Pierre Thomas, who is a rising star, as the main back with Bush as a change-of-pace threat. The line is solid, although OLT Jammal Brown needs to bounce back from his training-camp injury to keep things moving at full effectiveness. While the offense is a galaxy of stars, the defense too often looks like a Confederacy of Dunces. (There’s your Nola literary reference!) The defense was gashed over and over again last year, and that’s what forced the Saints into last place in the competitive NFC South. New coordinator Gregg Williams is known for his attacking style (he’s from the Jeff Fisher/Buddy Ryan school of defense), but does he have the pieces? The defensive line has talent in Will Smith and Charles Grant, but they don’t produce nearly often enough. The return of second-year DT Sedrick Ellis from injury should help. At linebacker, Jonathan Vilma must prove that he’s more than just a tackler, and in the secondary the Saints hope the additions of CBs Jabari Greer (free agency) and Malcolm Jenkins (first round) help stabilize what has been a subpar unit. The offense is good enough that even a slight swing up in defensive performance could make the Saints the sixth worst-to-first team in the NFC South in the last nine years, but counting on this collection to deliver is risky. So for now, we’ll count the Saints among the fringe playoff contenders who have a reasonable hope to go 9-7.

5 – Chicago Bears – In Chicago, it’s all Jay Cutler, all the time, because the Bears are so psyched about having a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback for the first time since the Super Bowl Shuffle. Cutler has a great arm and a prickly personality, but he definitely is an upgrade for the Bears. The question is who he’s going to throw the ball to, and the answer should be tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen, who had  54 catches and five touchdowns last year, is the most potent of the Bears’ solid cadre of supplemental receivers. RB Matt Forte, who’s great carrying the ball, is also a big threat as a receiver, and TE Desmond Clark is solid both blocking and receiving. But Cutler doesn’t have great outside receivers. Devin Hester is dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball, but he’s not a natural receiver. Earl Bennett, Cutler’s college teammate at Vanderbilt, didn’t have a single catch in his rookie season. So Cutler will have to spread the ball around instead of relying on studs like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal as he did in Denver. The Bears’ offensive line is OK blocking for Forte and the run game, but changes at tackle mean an aging Orlando Pace and an unproven Chris Williams (like Cutler a first-rounder from Vandy) will have to deliver time for Cutler to throw. On defense, the Bears have a great reputation based on great history, but there are questions. DT Tommie Harris, the disruptive engine that makes everything go, is battling knee injuries and probably won’t be 100 percent at all this year. The question becomes whether he can make plays in his current state. DE Alex Brown is a good pass rusher, but other options like Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson can help him. At linebacker, Brian Urlacher’s performance is slipping from its peak, but not so rapidly that he can’t be an asset. Lance Briggs is probably the bigger playmaker in that unit. The real questions the Bears face on defense are in the secondary, where CB Nathan Vasher has really slipped and CB Charles Tillman is hurt. If the Bears don’t find stability there, Cutler will have to be a shootout machine even more than he was in Denver last year. The Bears went 9-7 last year, which was probably an overachievement, but even with Cutler they’ll need to answer a lot of questions to have a winning record again. A .500 mark seems more likely.

5 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s the same old story for the Bengals this year. Yes, they have talent. But they also have character problems. Usually, the character problems win. But there were signs of life for Cincy at the end of last year, as the Bungles started 0-8 but finished 4-3-1. The biggest sign of life now is the return of QB Carson Palmer, who is still an upper-echelon guy in the NFL. When he went out last year with a shoulder injury, the Bengals fell apart because backup Ryan Fitzpatrick just wasn’t good enough. Now Palmer is healthy, and he’s aiming for holdovers Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry and newcomers Laveranues Coles and TE Chase Coffman. That’s a strong group despite the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, especially if Henry (usually a troublemaker) is as focused and determined as he appeared to be in the preseason. The Bengals’ running game should be better with a full season from Cedric Benson, who found a good fit in Cincy after busting out in Chicago. The offensive line is a pretty tough unit, but there are questions, especially since rookie ORT Andre Smith held out so long. Defensively, the Bengals made progress last year. Domata Peko is an underrated defensive tackle, and the linebacker corps is getting younger and better with second-year man Keith Rivers and rookie Rey Maualuga. The Bengals also have promising corners in Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, and they brought in S Roy Williams from Dallas, who can still be a big hitter as long as they don’t ask him to do much in pass coverage. There’s talent here,  and head coach Marvin Lewis had won at least seven games every year until last season. That decline can be largely attributed to Palmer’s absence, and that makes a return to respectability possible. The playoffs are still a long shot, because it’s hard to imagine Cincy passing Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but a .500 record is a goal that can be reached.

5 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans, in some quarters, are a trendy pick to make the jump. It’s easy to see why that pick is trendy. The offense is loaded with playmakers, starting with WR Andre Johnson, who can make an argument for being the best receiver in the league. He’s not alone, though, because WR Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels, and RB Steve Slaton are all dangerous when they get the ball in their hands, and they all get the ball in their hands often. The triggerman is Matt Schaub, who is an above-average quarterback when he stays healthy. That just hasn’t happened often enough, as Schaub has missed five games in each of the past two seasons. His backup, likely Rex Grossman, is a Jekyll-and-Hyde performer who won’t match Schaub’s productivity often enough. It would help if the Texans’ offensive line continued to develop, because that unit is still a question mark. On defense, Houston has spent a ton of high picks with mixed results. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams has turned into an elite defensive end, and he could surpass his 12-sack total from last year if free-agent signee Antonio Smith can draw some coverage. But DT Amobi Okoye followed up a good rookie season with a so-so sophomore one, and fellow former first-rounder Travis Johnson was so disappointing he was dealt to San Diego. Still, there’s some havoc-wreaking potential up front. At linebacker, rookie Brian Cushing could provide playmaking ability to supplement what tackle-machine MLB DeMeco Ryans can do. In the secondary, Houston has an unsung corner in Fred Bennett and a hyped corner in Dunta Robinson, whose feast or famine tendencies could be even more pronounced after he held out the entire preseason. There’s a lot of flashy talent on this team, but they haven’t been able to put it together to get past 8-8 in their franchise history. The guess here is that something – a Schaub injury or something else – will come up to keep them from jumping that hurdle again in ‘09.

5 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – Usually a contender, the Jaguars fell apart last year, in large part because of widespread offensive line issues. So it makes sense that Jacksonville made offensive line priority No. 1 in the offseason by signing longtime Eagles OT Tra Thomas and then drafting Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton in the first two rounds. There’s now a lot more depth on that unit, which should translate to more offensive production. David Garrard is a solid quarterback, though he’s yet to show that he can stand out from the rest of the NFL pack at that position. And RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a pinball-shaped dynamo who has produced both as a runner and a receiver. It will be interesting to see if Jones-Drew can maintain his big-play potential now that he’s more of a featured back instead of a complement to the departed Fred Taylor. Along with remaking the offensive line, the Jags also redid their entire WR corps, with Torry Holt coming over to provide veteran wile and production and youngsters like Mike Sims-Walker, Jarrett Dillard, and Mike Thomas to fill out the unit. It would help if TE Marcedes Lewis continues to develop and if Troy Williamson finally lives up to the potential he showed as a first-round pick back in Minnesota. On defense, the Jags lost some of their identity by letting Marcus Stroud go to Buffalo in ‘08. Stroud’s former running mate, John Henderson, has shown inconsistent production and a spotty work ethic that keeps him from being an impact player. Young DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves didn’t make a splash as rookies, and the Jaguars need them to take two or three steps up this year to make the front seven scary. At least Jacksonville has a top-flight corner in Rashean Mathis, who is probably the best corner you’ve never heard of. S Reggie Nelson is a playmaker too. While the Jags can’t possibly have the injury issues they had last year, there are still too many questions in too many places to consider them a real threat to contend with Tennessee or even Indy and Houston in the south. Given the strength of their division, Jack Del Rio’s crew is in a battle just to avoid being in last place again. They may win a few rounds of that fight, but they’re not getting past the .500 mark.

5 (con’t) – San Francisco 49ers – Last year, the 49ers started 2-7, changed head coaches by installing Mike Singletary, and then surged to a 5-2 finish. Singletary knows what kind of team he wants – a smashmouth, run-first unit on offense and an attacking crew on defense. The question for this team isn’t style but personnel. Shaun Hill is effective at quarterback, but he’s not a standout. The receivers, led by vet Isaac Bruce and holdover Josh Morgan, are nothing special. TE Vernon Davis, though he showed signs of getting it at the end of last season, still hasn’t come close to living up to his top-10 draft status. And Frank Gore, a solid runner, is sometimes too injury prone to last. Still, given the talent on offense, a run game featuring Gore and perhaps rookie Glen Coffee is the best approach, and Singletary wants to play that style, so at least that’s a fit. The offensive line has no monster talents, but it will be tough and physical, which is a start. On defense, the Niners really have only one standout – MLB Patrick Willis, who can make plays sideline to sideline and will make virtually every tackle in between. It remains to be seen, though, if this defense can move from being tough to being dangerous on the pass rush. Former first-round pick Manny Lawson is the most likely candidate to lead such a transition, but that’s far from a sure thing. The Niners suffered a big loss when CB Walt Harris suffered a season-ending injury in minicamps, but Nate Clements is still an above-average corner, and vet Dre Bly could help. The 49ers have attitude and hope, but the talent level isn’t there for a major run. If the NFC West is won at 9-7 again, the 49ers could be in the picture, but if Arizona steps forward, San Fran doesn’t have long enough legs to keep up. A .500 record is a far more likely outcome.

4 – Buffalo Bills – The Bills, perhaps sensing that they were irrelevant, signed Terrell Owens in the offseason to a one-year deal. As a one-year gamble, it makes sense, but if you believe that T.O. is enough to put the Bills over the top, you’re fooling yourself. While the Bills have some good players, there are far too many holes for this team to contend against a powerhouse like New England or even a solid squad like Miami. Owens and Lee Evans make a dynamic receiver duo, and Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish provide great depth at the position. But Trent Edwards has yet to show that he’s a big-time quarterback who can get the ball to all those targets, and even if he’s capable the offensive line is just too young (starting rookie OGs Eric Wood and Andy Levitre) to provide consistent protection. The run game with Marshawn Lynch is OK, or maybe even a little above average, but Lynch must sit out the first three games of the season. The fact that the Bills canned coordinator Turk Schonert just before the season shows that they still haven’t settled on what they want their offensive identity to be. On defense, the Bills need DEs Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay to live up to the pass-rush potential they’ve shown at times but not consistently. Rookie Aaron Maybin can be part of the solution there, but he’s not big enough to be play a heavy load of snaps. LB Paul Pozluszny is a quality player, but he’s not going to provide juice at that position. One thing the Bills do have is good corners in Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin. If the D can get pass rush pressure, those corners can take advantage, and they’re extremely dangerous on returns. The Bills are a weird team in that they have good pieces on some levels and very few pieces on others, and that’s going to lead to inconsistency that will ultimately doom their playoff hopes – or even their dreams of a .500 record.

4 (con’t) – New York Jets - New head coach Rex Ryan isn’t afraid of the spotlight. He’s challenging opposing players, making bold proclamations, and basically just making himself known. Unlike most new head coaches, he also takes over a team that at 9-7 was competitive last year. But it remains to be seen whether the Jets can match even that moderate level of success with a rookie quarterback, Mark Sanchez. The Jets’ offense will have to rely on the running game, led by the dependable Thomas Jones and the explosive Leon Washington, to carry them. The fact that the offensive line, led by C Nick Mangold and veteran OG Alan Faneca, is of high quality will help. But the Jets really don’t have a lot of receiving threats to help Sanchez – only TE Dustin Keller is a true big-play threat, and only WR Jerricho Cotchery is of starting caliber on the outside. The offense will need the defense to keep them in games. Ryan brought ILB Bart Scott over from Baltimore with him to make sure his scheme and, as importantly, his personality translated to his new setting. He and fellow ILB David Harris make a terrific twosome inside. But the Jets don’t have the pass-rushing studs that Ryan enjoyed with the Ravens. Calvin Pace, who had a solid season last year, will miss the first four games because of suspension, and ‘08 first-rounder Vernon Gholston was a ghost as a rookie. NT Kris Jenkins is a massive mound of man in the middle, but he wore down and lost effectiveness as the season wore on. The Jets need to do a better job of giving him breaks, but they don’t really have the depth to be able to do so. In the secondary, the Jets have a playmaker in S Kerry Rhodes and a shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis. There are a lot of good pieces on this team, especially on defense, but the lack of an outside pass rush or an outside passing game will ultimately prove fatal. Ryan should be able to get 6 wins or so easily, but the next three needed for playoff consideration will be beyond the Jets’ reach.

4 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks - At one point, I had the Seahawks slated to bounce back from last year’s 4-12 debacle and win the NFC West. But the signs in training camp haven’t been good, and the offensive line has been hit by injuries significant enough to make a rebound far more improbable. New head coach Jim Mora gets QB Matt Hasselbeck back to begin the season which is good; without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks aren’t going anywhere. But with him, their version of the West Coast offense can be potent enough. Last year, the Seahawks went through so many wide receivers that the offense never had a chance to develop rhythm or thrive. By adding reliable WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Seahawks got a No. 1 receiver who can take the pressure off their complementary players. The best of those complements is TE John Carlson, who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie. Seattle’s running game won’t scare anyone with vets Julius Jones and Edgerrin James, but at least both players can catch the ball out of the backfield. Up front, both OLT Walter Jones and C Chris Spencer suffered training-camp injury setbacks that will sideline them to begin the season. That’s a huge problem that could really inhibit the offense early. Defensively, the Seahawks have a solid pass-rusher in Patrick Kearney, but he doesn’t have much help up front. Free-agent Colin Cole was a nice addition, but he can’t make up for the departure of Rocky Bernard. The Seahawks have invested heavily at linebacker with first-rounder Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill, and Lofa Tatupu, and while that group is good vs. the pass and the run, they’re going to have to force some turnovers and get some sacks for this defense to work. Losing CB Marcus Trufant for at least the first six games of the season is another injury issue for the Seahawks to overcome. At his best, he’s a premium cover corner, but injuries kept him from being at his best last year as well as this one. In a best-case scenario, you could see Seattle making a playoff run, but injuries have already taken that scenario off the table. Instead, the likely scenario is a third-place finish in the NFC West.

4 (con’t) – Washington Redskins - In a tough division, the Redskins are falling behind. Offensively, QB Jason Campbell just hasn’t progressed enough to be the franchise’s standard-bearer. He will finally get to play a second season under the same offensive coordinator this year, but the Redskins have so little faith in him that his leash is incredibly short. He doesn’t exactly have wonderful targets to help him. Santana Moss is a good but not great receiver, and Chris Cooley is just a hair below Pro Bowl level at tight end. Young receivers like Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas would help, but they’re not emerging at this point. The run game is strong with Clinton Portis, but he’s one of those backs with so many carries in his back pocket that you wonder how much longer it will be until he begins to slip. The offensive line is already slipping, with players like OLT Chris Samuels beginning to show their age. Defensively, the Redskins need pass rush. Rookie Brian Orakpo is the most likely person to provide that rush outside, and high-dollar DT Albert Haynesworth can do the same inside. If they both become playmakers, then the Redskins D will have sharper teeth than in years past. MLB London Fletcher is still an effective clean-up ‘backer, and safeties LaRon Landry and Chris Horton are a young duo that is an asset as well. Plus, CB DeAngelo Hall played well after his complete failure of a tenure in Oakland, and Carlos Rogers has come around too. There are a lot of nice pieces in place in Washington, but many of the ones on offense are getting old just as the pieces on defense are coming on. If the planets align, it’ll work, even in a tough division. But the odds of the planets aligning are just too slim to count on much – in large part because Planet Campbell is so far in outer orbit that he won’t come around quickly enough.

3 – Cleveland Browns - The Dawg Pound had better hope new coach Eric Mangini knows what he’s doing, because his “reclamation” project looks more like razing the foundation. Kellen Winslow is gone, WR Braylon Edwards and DE Corey Williams are rumored to be next, and Mangini seems to believe that keeping his starting quarterback a secret is a good idea. Whether it’s Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn starts,  he’s going to wish he had better targets. Edwards is talented but inconsistent catching the ball, and aside from Josh Cribbs there’s little big-play ability. Jamal Lewis is a workhorse running back who is becoming more of a plowhorse by the carry, but at least rookie James Davis shows promise. The Browns do have a building block in OLT Joe Thomas, and they dealt out of a top-5 draft position to take C Alex Mack, who could develop into a solid guy too. Of course, Mangini will have to start Mack for that to happen, but the Mangenius is too smart for that. On defense, Shaun Rogers is one of the top 3-4 nose tackles in the league, but Williams struggled to move from a 4-3 tackle to a 3-4 end. Former first-round pick Kamerion Wimbley has shown pass-rush potential from the OLB spot in the past, but last year he disappointed. One player who didn’t disappoint was ILB D’Qwell Jackson, who established himself as a tackling machine. In the secondary, Mangini is counting on Abram Elam, who came over in the draft-day dealing but who never could establish himself as a full-time starter with the Jets. The Browns have a few premium players, but not enough, and Mangini’s insistence on having things his way will lead to a step back before it leads to any steps forward.

3 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – There are teams that are bad, and there are teams that are bad with a plan. The Chiefs are bad, but they have a plan that should pay off – just not this year. New GM Scott Pioli and new coach Todd Haley brought in QB Matt Cassel to run the offense going forward, and if Cassel can approach the ability he showed in New England last year, that will be a good move. Cassel has one stud receiver in Dwayne Bowe, and Mark Bradley showed his potential more frequently last year than he had in the past. Vet Bobby Engram provides stability to help the offense keep moving in the short term. The run game still revolves around Larry Johnson, who actually had decent stats when he played last year. He’s still an above-average NFL back. Haley knows what he wants his offense to look like, so much so that he canned coordinator Chan Gailey just before the system to make sure that the offense is structured his way. The Chiefs are still looking for OL help and depth, but they do have a cornerstone in OLT Branden Albert. On defense, the Chiefs are moving to a 3-4, and we can expect them to go through the normal growing pains. First-rounder Tyson Jackson must settle in as a keystone defensive end, like Richard Seymour used to be, in order to make the front line work. Glenn Dorsey, a top-5 pick two years ago, doesn’t really fit this system, and so he might end up being moved for cents on the dollar. The Chiefs brought in Mike Vrabel from New England to help make the transition and hopefully to help OLB Tamba Hali, the team’s best pass rusher, adjust to the new system. Hali and Jackson are the key pieces up front; their fates will largely determine the fate of the defense. The Chiefs don’t have enough premium players to compete — only Bowe, Albert, Hali, and maybe Jackson and Cassel fit that bill – but they should be better this year. And if Pioli and Haley can upgrade the talent level going into next year, this team could start to take a leap.

3 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – When I first started the preview process, I pegged the Rams as the worst team in the league. But the more I thought and prepared, the more I realized that there is hope in St. Louis. That hope is mostly because Steve Spagnuolo comes to a team that has some defensive building blocks in place. DE Chris Long had just four sacks in his rookie season, but he should become a solid run-stopping defensive end with pass rush potential. (Think of Justin Smith or Philip Daniels at their best.) Rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis steps into the middle to provide stability and solid tackling, and that should free OLB Will Witherspoon to roam and make more plays like he used to in Carolina. And the secondary has unknown but quality players in CB Ron Bartell and S O.J. Atogwe. This is a defense on the rise. The problem is offensively, where neither QB Marc Bulger nor RB Steven Jackson has been able to stay healthy enough to produce. While Jackson is a good bet to bounce back, it’s likely Bulger’s best days are over. What won’t help Bulger is the fact that his best receivers are an over-the-hill TE Randy McMichael and under-the-hill WRs Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson. Avery needs to emerge as a true No. 1 guy for the Rams offense to click, and while he has the potential to do so, it may still be a year early for that. What will help Bulger, who has been battered as much as any NFL quarterback in recent years, is the addition of rookie OT Jason Smith. The Rams are starting Smith on the right side but need to move him to the left tackle spot ASAP instead of trying to salvage former first-rounder Alex Barron who has proven he can’t do that job. The Rams will be better than last year’s 2-win team, but ultimately Bulger will cost them the chance to leap ahead into playoff contention. Still, five or six wins would show Rams fans that the hope they want really is there.

2 – Denver Broncos – Josh McDaniels is a good offensive mind, but so far he’s shown he doesn’t have the skills to be a head coach. He doesn’t deal with his players well, and he doesn’t seem to have the willingness and/or the ability to adjust his precious “system” to the realities of his roster. So Jay Cutler is gone and Brandon Marshall is very unhappy, leaving the Broncos without their two most impactful players from ‘08. Without that impact, there’s little hope in Denver this year. Cutler’s replacement, Kyle Orton, is a competent NFL quarterback, but he has yet to show that he’s better than that. He has one terrific slot-type receiver in Eddie Royal (think Wes Welker from the scheme McDaniels coordinated in New England), and if Marshall is willing to play, he’ll be a great asset outside. The depth at receiver is spotty, although TE Tony Scheffler (who was in McDaniels’ doghouse early) is a really good weapon in the passing game. Denver’s running game will revolve mainly around rookie Knowshon Moreno, who has loads of potential. Denver does have a strong offensive line, with OLT Ryan Clady back after a sterline rookie season. ORG Chris Kuper and ORT Ryan Harris are quite good as well. So there is hope on offense, even with the passing game changes. The problems are on defense, where the Broncos are trying to install a 3-4 scheme that they don’t yet have the personnel for. Rookie Robert Ayers fits into the OLB role on one side, and free-agent Ronald Fields fits as a nose tackle. But the other main contributors from last year – Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams – have to prove they can fit this scheme. And unless they can, the defense will be average at best. Denver also reworked the secondary around Champ Bailey, signing veteran safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill and CB Andre Goodman. There’s just been too much upheaval in Denver this year for me to feel good about what the Broncos are doing, and this team could easily bottom out this year. McDaniels’ people skills, not his football skills, will be tested severely, and we’ll have to see how he responds to a test it appears he didn’t expect when he took the job.

2 (con’t) – Detroit Lions – After an 0-16 debacle, the Lions are trying to remake everything. I believe they’ve gotten the right guy at the helm to do it. Jim Schwartz is a tough yet progressive coach who assimilates as much info as he can to make a decision. That’s a crucial quality as the Lions turn over a huge percentage of their roster. QB Matthew Stafford will start out of the gate as a rookie, and while he will struggle, he has a big arm and a bigger security blanket in all-league receiver Calvin Johnson. The Lions have worked on acquiring receiver depth this offseason to help Stafford, and they drafted rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew as well to help the cause. The running game features Kevin Smith, who had an OK season as a rookie and who still has the potential to flourish in better surroundings. Detroit’s offensive line still needs work; the good players are old, and the young players aren’t good yet. That’s not a good combo. Defensively, the Lions added vets like LBs Julian Peterson and Larry Foote and CBs Anthony Henry and Philip Buchanon to help stabilize a unit that was awful last year. None of those guys (except for maybe Peterson) can still be a good playmaker, but they won’t blow assignments like the Lions did so often last year. Rookies FS Louis Delmas and DT Sammie Hill will start and try to start a youth movement. Detroit still has a long way to go, but they’ll be better this year and a little more competitive. Even a three- or four-win season would be a step in the right direction, and more wins than that could be cause for celebration. Don’t count on celebration, but this ship is finally pointed in the right direction.

1 – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders’ dysfunction has been evident all offseason. To wit: the last-second trade for DE Richard Seymour; signing guys like Jeff Garcia and Terdell Sands and then cutting them before the season; and of course the reputed game of Tom Cable’s Punchout in a coaches meeting. (We’re not saying Cable punched a guy; we’re saying some people said he did.)  Hey, at least they didn’t fire their offensive coordinator during training camp. (Oh wait; they don’t really have one.) You can say a lot about the way the Raiders are run off the field, but let’s look at what Oakland has on the field. They do have a great stable of running backs with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush. They do have a young quarterback in JaMarcus Russell who still has promise that he could grow into. They do have an underrated young tight end in Zach Miller. They do have the best cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. They have a terrific young linebacker in Kirk Morrison. So there are pieces in place. But the Raiders don’t have proven wide receivers, especially with Chaz Schilens sidelined as the season starts. They don’t have a great offensive line, which mitigates the impact of the running game and makes Russell’s development difficult. The Raiders don’t have an impactful front four on defense, unless Seymour and Greg Ellis find a fountain of youth. They don’t have great depth anywhere. This roster has a few nice pieces, but there’s simply not enough quality in enough places for them to compete regularly. That’s poor front-office planning. So while the Raiders may jump up and win a game or two you don’t expect them to during the year, they’re going to be among the most hopeless teams out there on a week-to-week basis.

1 (con’t) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It’s a bad year to be a pirate in the NFL, because the Raiders and the Buccaneers begin the season on the lowermost level of our comparison. The Bucs unloaded stalwarts like Derrick Brooks, Kevin Carter, Warrick Dunn, and Ike Hilliard, instituting a new era under new head coach Raheem Morris. The beginning of the era is going to be very bumpy. Byron Leftwich is the starter at quarterback, but his slow delivery is going to get him, a receiver, the offensive line, or all three killed. He’s simply not good enough, but he’s a good guy who can be a place-holder until Josh Freeman is ready midseason. The running game features a returning Cadillac Williams (is he healthy?), import Derrick Ward, and holdover Earnest Graham. Leftwich is throwing to Antonio Bryant, who had a breakout year last year in his return from utter NFL obscurity, and new tight end Kellen Winslow. These are guys who have been good but who aren’t dependable in the least. The offensive line is OK but not great, although OLT Donald Penn is a prospect to watch. The fact that offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodinski was jettisoned just before the season isn’t a good sign that all these pieces are coming together on offense. On defense is where the Bucs’ makeover is going to take time. The only front seven guy who is a building block for sure is MLB Barrett Ruud, although DE Gaines Adams has shown potential. In the secondary, safety Tanard Jackson is suspended for the first four games, but he and Aqib Talib are supposed to be the guys who take over a unit that has been Ronde Barber’s for years. The Bucs simply haven’t replaced the talent they got rid of in the offseason, which means that they’re going to struggle this year. The fact that Leftwich just isn’t good enough will make those struggles more pronounced, to the point that the Bucs could be the worst team in the league. Morris may be the guy for the future, but his beginning right now isn’t going to be pretty.

Overview: QB Tom Brady went down in the Patriots’ first regular season game last year. Filling in for him was QB Matt Cassel, a quarterback who hadn’t started a game since high school. Cassel filled in admirably, leading the Pats to an 11-5 record, but New England still missed the playoffs.

Offseason Moves: The Patriots lot a lost more than they gained this off season. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left to become the head coach in Denver, and New England traded QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel to Kansas City, where former Patriots VP Scott Pioli took over as general manager. The Pats also lost players to retirement, such as S Rodney Harrison and LB Tedy Bruschi. New England is still waiting for LB Junior Seau to retire as well. The Patriots did add players, believe it or not. New England signed RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway, and traded for WR Greg Lewis to bolster the offense. On defense, the Patriots traded for DE Derrick Burgess and CB Shawn Springs, as well as signing LB Paris Lenon and CB Leigh Bodden.

Upcoming Season: The Patriots still have the core of players on offense that set the record for most points ever scored in the NFL in one season. With a healthy QB Tom Brady, and WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the Patriots should still have the same kind of explosion. The running game has struggled, but look for RB Laurence Maroney to learn something from RB Fred Taylor.  On defense, the Patriots have a solid defensive line. The linebackers are still strong despite all the losses, and are led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year LB Jerod Mayo. The secondary could struggle at times, but will be consistent enough for the Patriots to win.

Player to watch: This is a no brainer. QB Tom Brady is coming off a torn ACL, and no one can say with absolute positivity that he will be the same quarterback that he was before. Brady still has the weapons, and has looked healthy so far this preseason. Look for Brady to start off slow, but still finish within the range of 30-35 TDs.

Prediction: 10-6, 1st in AFC East

The Patriots are better this season than last, but their schedule is one of the toughest in the league. With the exception of the first couple games, look for the Patriots to have to battle for the divison.

2008 Record: 11-5, 2008 TABRank: 8, Tentative 2009 AFC East Projection: 1st
Whatever vengeance Tom Brady and the Patriots had for the NFL after losing Super Bowl XLII and spoiling a chance at a perfect season was swept under the rug after Brady suffered a season-ending injury in the first week of the season.  The Super Bowl losers’ curse bit again, and it left the inexperienced Matt Cassel to be the team’s quarterback for 15 games in 2008.  Meanwhile, defensive problems came to the forefront in Week 3 when Miami abused New England as the NFL’s “Wildcat” craze was born.  Still, with all the conflicts at hand, the Patriots stuck through it.  Cassel improved as the season progressed, and the team eventually adjusted to Brady’s injury.  The team’s rise was capped by a Week 16 destruction of the eventual NFC-champion Arizona Cardinals.  Unfortunately, the 47-7 win and the 11-5 regular season record wasn’t enough for the New England Patriots to make the playoffs.  Potential crossroads were averted with the Cassel trade in the offseason, and once again this is Tom Brady’s team.  Can he reach his fifth Super Bowl?

Brady can do it all as a passer, with his lively and accurate arm.  He knows when to throw the football to hit receivers quickly and in stride better than perhaps anyone in the league.  The one problem for Brady will be the return from his ACL tear.  Usually the returning QB has a little bit of a down year.  Still, he should be on the mark with WR Randy Moss for the most part.  Moss can command a double team and still stretch the field or nab a deep ball.  As good as Moss is spreading the field, Wes Welker is just as effective underneath.  Welker works superbly out of the slot and can take a short pass into about a 20-to-30-yard gain.  WR and TE depth is pretty good, but there’s no standout option besides Moss and Welker.  Once an elite unit that was leading the team to perfection, the offensive line now looks like one of the weaker units on the team.  The Patriots allowed 27 more sacks in ’08 than the 2007 regular season.  Still, the same starting unit remains, so a bounce back with the return of Brady is by no means out of the question.  LT Matt Light isn’t close to what he used to be, but LG Logan Mankins can still be an elite player if he’s an elite pass blocker again.  C Dan Koppen, RG Stephen Neal and RT Nick Kaczur have their fair share of positives and negatives.  Depth could be an issue, so the line better hope to hold together for the most part.  The backfield needs to find a way to put it together as well.  Newcomer Fred Taylor had a down year last year in Jacksonville, and he’s 33 years old.  However, Taylor did have more than five yards per carry in 2007 and 2008, so there’s reason to believe he has some left in the tank.  Sammy Morris, 32, will probably get the starting nod at RB, but Taylor, Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney will get considerable time as well.  At age 33, Faulk makes the third RB to be at least 32, so Maroney better step it up once and for all.  It could be anytime now that one or all three 30-some backs can no longer hold their weight in the league.  It’ll be interesting to see who calls the plays now that Josh McDaniels is the head coach out in Denver and no longer running the offense with New England.

The defense struggled last year, especially in pass coverage, so Pats fans are hoping that the addition of some veteran players in the secondary will make a good impact.  Starting CBs Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden were taken from free agency.  Springs did an excellent job (when healthy) with Washington last year, but Bodden didn’t do nearly as well with the winless Lions.  Springs works best in man-to-man coverage, but he’s an injury liability and 34 years old to boot.  Bodden will try to relive the success he had with Cleveland a few years back.  New England has three youngbloods behind Springs and Bodden, and seeing one of them have a breakout season would be a huge asset.  Perhaps a floundering pass rush that finds its punch once again could a go long way to helping the secondary.  OLB Adalius Thomas turned 32 earlier this month, and he’s not as disruptive as he was heading into New England.  The Pats have put their trust into Pierre Woods to make noise at the other OLB position.  Woods has gotten the team’s stamp of approval as a rising prospect, which should at least say something.  Derrick Burgess could provide a pass-rushing boost as a reserve, but there’s not much else there at OLB.  Inside, as a rookie, Jerod Mayo confirmed that he’s going to be a major force in this league for a while.  He should be able to pick up the slack for the declining Tedy Bruschi, however depth lacks once again.  The rock of this defense has and once again will be the line.  NT Vince Wilfork enters his contract season, so opponents better watch out.  Wilfork can be more than a wide body, but a disruption up the middle.  DEs Ty Warren and Richard Seymour are elite players in their own right.

Special teams did a very good job last year.  The team did a nice job all around, whether it be kicking, returning or coverage.  Stephen Gostkowski already is one of the most reliable place kickers.  Matt Slater should see full-time duty as the kick returner while Welker remains the punt returner.

The Patriots have their fair share of issues.  Brady still may need more time to get back to his full form.  Meanwhile, depth lacks at several positions, and the Patriots may be relying too much on aging veterans to bring the team back to Super Bowl contention.  Still, it’s tough to count out Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick (who’s genius has somehow not been mentioned until now).  No team has asserted itself as the runaway Super Bowl favorite, so the Patriots once again find themselves leading the discussion of favorites.

Burning Question: Will the 30-plus year old veterans be effective enough for the Patriots to make a run to the Super Bowl?
Time after time, Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli picked up veterans from free agency that worked as good as a team could plan for.  Corey Dillon and Randy Moss are two players who became consummate professionals when joining the Patriots.  Meanwhile, Moss broke a record for touchdowns scored by a receiver in his first year with the team.  Others like Rodney Harrison put together several strong years, even in the twilight of their careers.  On that basis, it’s hard to doubt the Patriots’ moves.  Still, Pioli is now in Kansas City and the team will be relying on 13 players of age 30 or greater to make an impact.  Most of those players are actually 32 or older and are starters, so yes, the situation is a cause of concern.  Sure, both Brady and Moss are 32 (already), but free-agent additions like Taylor, Springs and Joey Galloway join the team with only fumes left in the tank.  Belichick is the best coach in the business, so the trust is there, but don’t at all be surprised if the team falls short (in several areas) of making a Super Bowl push.

Rehab and Rebound?
As soon as Brady returns in Week 1 as the starting QB, he’ll already be a year removed from his catastrophic injury.  Does that mean he can overcome the injury faster than the recent players who returned from their knee injuries?  Take a look at the recent victims of a major knee injury and what they did in their returning season.  The DYAR and DVOA are provided by Football Outsiders.

*-one playoff start; **-three playoff starts; ^-injured occurred days before McNabb’s 30th birthday
The evidence isn’t all too telling, but there’s at least some difference to take note of in DYAR and DVOA. Obviously, Brady isn’t going to put up the numbers that he did in 2008, simply because Brady played less than half a game in 2008. It’s also as obvious that he won’t put up his 2007 numbers, but nobody may ever match those numbers. Expect Brady to have a considerable drop from 2007, part because he can’t match near perfection and part because of his recuperating knee.

As excited as I was yesterday for the linebackers, I’m that much not excited about the defensive backs. Don’t get me wrong, there’s potential to get excited about, but until it’s realized potential it’s going to questions marks.

Cornerbacks:

Shawn Springs (29) – Springs was signed almost right after free agency opened in an effort to bolster the secondary. Early indications were that he’d lost a step or two and would actually be used as a safety in the Pats defensive scheme. I don’t believe it and think that he’ll be playing against the other team’s #2 receiver.

Leigh Bodden (23) – The former Brown and Lion was also brought in as a free agent. His best years were playing under Lil Romeo in Cleveland where he played in a similar system as Belichick. Since he’s signed only to a one year deal, look for him to try and impress for a pay day after this season.

Darius Butler (28) – Bulter was projected on some draft boards as high as 23 with the Patriots first round pick. They waited and were able to nab him in the second. He’s very fast and word is, very smart. Let’s see if that translates to a starting spot on the roster. He should at least get time as the nickle that he could potentially use that time to move into a starting spot based on performance.

Jonathan Wilhite (24) – Wilhite is a second year man who really turned it on towards the end of last season. Enough to earn a starting spot? Some people have him in the mix to start. It’ll be interesting to see if he can leapfrog fellow second year man Terrence Wheatley (22) on the depth chart. Mike Richardson (35) and Jamar Love (38) are also on the depth chart more as special teamers than anything.

Safeties:

Brandon Meriweather (31) – The third year man from Miami has solidified himself as the starter in the defense. Now that Harrison has retired, can he pick up the slack as a defensive leader? After nabbing 4 INT’s last season can he build on that performance this year? It will be interesting how the defensive backs can flourish with the improved pass rush.

James Sanders (36) – Following Harrison’s injury last year, Sanders stepped into the role of starter and was serviceable for the remainder of the season. What will be interesting to see; will the Patriots top choice in the second round Patrick Chung (25) push Sanders or Meriweather for one of the starting spots? Probably not initially as he learns the system, but with Meriweather missing spring practices, he may emerge as a starter sooner rather than later. WR/DB Matthew Slater (18), Brandon McGowan (30), Ray Ventrone (41) and LB/S Tank Williams (26) are also in the backup/special teams mix.

We all hope that this group is better than the cast of castoffs that stunk up the backfield last year. With the better front seven, this should be better right from the word go. Tonight we get Pats against the Eagles. Can’t wait.

It’s that time of year. Time for training camp. A time filled with hopefuls, rumors, undrafted free agents, first round stars and busts. This time of year every fan of every team thinks they have a shot at making to the playoffs at least. With a salary cap in place, this is probably accurate. That is the great equalizer after all.

Here in New England, the Patriots have reloaded. Adding Joey Galloway, Leigh Bodden, Fred Taylor among others. Lately the rumor mill has been strong regarding Michael Vick potentially joining the team. I have my doubts about how he could actually help the Patriots, who may again have the most potent offense in the league. I would never put it past Belichick however, if he thinks it will help him win.

To a certain degree the Patriots have become the Raiders of the 70s and early 80s. Players looking to reclaim their reputation, those thought to be trouble makers, anyone looking to do whatever it takes to win used to gravitate towards the Raiders. Now that seems to be true to a degree with the Patriots. Corey Dillon, Rodney Harrison, Randy Moss all came here, tried to fit in, and won. I have no idea if Michael Vick would do the same but it certainly makes for a fun thought.

Let’s face it, the entirety of the nation hates the Patriots. What was once the miracle team of 2001 has now morphed into one of the most despised teams in the NFL. Anyone on the inside of a team of the NFL knows that the Patriots did not win because of VideoGate, that it had little if no effect on the field. When the ‘86 Bears won by large margins, they were a dynastic team, when the Patriots did it it was running up the score. When the Dolphins pummeled the Patriots last year, there was dancing in the streets, if the Patriots do the same this year they will be viewed as poor sports and generally evil.

Admittedly, I am a fan. And in my travels around the country take quite a bit of abuse from other fans, most of which do not even understand the game well enough to comment, but it is a free country so so be it. As a fan, we really do need to embrace the hate. Do I care if Michael Vick comes because of the media circus that will follow? Not really. If the team wins most fans will dismiss that. Am I looking forward to another high powered high scoring season? Absolutely, it will be fun to watch.

It is the NFL. It is supposed to be fun. Let’s just enjoy the season and the offensive show we all expect. I sincerely hope that the Patriots are successful enough to fuel far more hate this year regardless of who is on the team. This could be a really fun year!

Sorry for the rant, just been traveling for work quite a bit and a little tired of fans in other cities treating me as if I am an embodiment of the team just because I am a fan. Apparently most feel that Patriots fans somehow have control over decisions made for and by the team. Lighten up a little people….

Depth Perceptions is a weekly look at the depth chart and positional battles all over the NFL.

One common thread that has run through the near decade-long successful run of the New England Patriots has been their ability to adapt to personnel changes. The Pats have shown a remarkable ability to utilize every player on the roster to help improve the team (see Tom Brady, 2001) or fill holes in desperate scenarios (see Troy Brown, 2004). Each offseason they retool and enter the regular season as one of the odds-on favorites to reach the Super Bowl – 2009 should be no different.

Coming off a dominant 2007 campaign that ended in Super Bowl XLII heartbreak, the Patriots had high hopes for the 2008 season. However there were some glaring positional concerns entering last season, particularly at cornerback. First team All-Pro CB Asante Samuel signed a six-year, $57 million with the Philadelphia Eagles and his ability to track down the ball was sorely missed. Samuel was replaced by capable veteran Deltha O’Neal to complement second-year starter Ellis Hobbs at corner but the big play was alive and well against the Pats defense last season, resulting in the following stats:

-New England allowed 27 passing TDs on defense in 2008, the second highest total in the NFL

-New England allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, the second highest total in the NFL

So, the Patriots shook things up again by dealing Hobbs on draft day to the aforementioned Eagles for draft picks. In addition, they brought in veteran cornerbacks Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden via free agency and took UConn product Darius Butler early in the second round of the draft. Let’s take a look at the state of the cornerbacks in New England for 2009.

Shawn Springs – The 13-year veteran will give this defensive backfield some much needed experience that left with the retirement of former Strong Safety Rodney Harrison. Springs’ best days are certainly behind him producing only one INT in 2008 along with a pedestrian 36 tackles. But, he will likely fill one of the starting corner roles if he is able to stay healthy, something he could not do two of the last three seasons.

Leigh Bodden – Bodden had developed into a solid corner for the Browns, turning in his best season in 2007 (88 TKL, 6 INT) before being shipped off to ‘Football Siberia’ a.k.a Detroit in 2008. The defense in Detroit was historically bad so it is fairly easy to write off Bodden’s drop in numbers. The Pats are hoping he returns to 2007 form and uses his six years in the league to complement Springs for a nicely rebuilt starting duo at CB.

Terrence Wheatley – The second round draft pick in 2008 out of Colorado saw very limited action in six games logging just two tackles. Corner is one of the most difficult positions on the field for rookies to contribute immediately, so his ‘struggles’ should be seen as part of the growing process. New England has high hopes for him to have a much bigger impact this season and you can expect him to see a lot more action in 2009.

Darius Butler – Butler received first-round consideration and was coveted by many teams on draft day. New England snatched him with the 41^st pick getting a player with excellent ball skills who can contribute immediately as a returner on special teams, something he did very well at UConn. Again, rookies will struggle at CB but expect Butler to be used often this season especially in nickel and dime packages as the Pats don’t have the luxury of great depth at this position.

Jonathan Wilhite – A fourth round pick in the 2008 draft, the Auburn rookie played in every game in 2008 chipping in with 28 tackles and an interception. The Patriots were pleased with his progress as he got up to speed quickly even starting the last four games at corner opposite Ellis Hobbs. By exceeding expectations in his rookie season, Wilhite will likely start the season on the 2-deep at corner but will battle Wheatley and Butler consistently for playing time in all defensive packages.

Mike Richardson – In his first year on the Pats’ roster, Richardson contributed 17 tackles during 10 games of limited action. He will provide depth in specialty packages and may have to fight to keep himself on the roster as opposed to being placed on the practice squad once again. His special teams contributions could save him a spot on the roster in 2009.

SUMMARY

While everyone connected to the Patriots was dejected after the loss of Asante Samuel before the 2008 season, it was justified by knowing it would be too difficult to pay top dollar to keep him. You won’t see too many people in the same mood over Hobbs’ departure. He played tough through injuries over the last two seasons, but was regularly picked on by bigger wideouts (see Plaxico Burress’ SB XLII-winning catch) and his ceiling had been determined to be limited by the Pats.

By bringing in two veterans with a combined 19 years of experience and drafting three corners in the last two years, New England acknowledged the need for an overhaul at the position. With all-everything QB Tom Brady back from injury, head coach Bill Belichick is aware than the margin for error in winning the Super Bowl is razor-thin and they cannot afford a weakness at any position.

Bodden will pleasantly surprise Pats’ fans and Butler will open eyes at least in the return game. If Springs stays healthy, a sizable ‘if’, the Pats have upgraded at both corner spots with three talented youngsters backing them up and supporting in special packages. That is as good an overhaul as can be done in just over a year’s time and the position now has a very good makeup for a team trying to return to the Super Bowl after a one-year hiatus.

The second week of free agency started out with a kaboom when Terrell Owens signed with Buffalo. We have many thoughts on that signing in this post. As for other signings this week, we’ve compiled a list comparing them to each other below. (Click through for the opening weekend comparison and the first full week comparison) As always, the following moves are compared relative to each other using a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most impactful move of the week and 1 being a move that’s barely worth noting. Remember that these moves are compared only to each other; this week’s 10 level would have been merely a 5 or 6 last week.

10 – Cowboys (added DE Igor Olshansky and S Gerald Sansbaugh) – Olshansky isn’t an impact player, but he’s a solid, dependable end who does his job as a 3-4 defensive end and allows the glamour players (Shawne Merriman in San Diego, now DeMarcus Ware in Dallas) to rush the passer and get their sacks. Olshansky, who got a 4-year contract worth $18 million,  is replacing Chris Canty and should put forth a performance in the ballpark at Canty’s at a much cheaper price. This is the best way the Cowboys could have replaced Canty. To replace Roy Williams, the Cowboys need options, and Sansbaugh is at least that. He is an acceptable option who might still have the upside to take a step forward in his career. To get someone like him on a one-year contract is another win for Dallas.
(Note: I know that Olshanksy isn’t much of a 10 move. But that’s what you get when you compare moves on a relatively slow week.)

9 – Jaguars (added OT Tra Thomas) – The Jaguars had massive offensive line problems last year (mainly because of injury), and they throttled the Jags’ chances of a successful season. With starting OLT Khalif Barnes a free agent who expects a contract beyond what Jacksonville is willing to play, they had to get a replacement. Thomas, a three-time Pro Bowler who has played left tackle his whole career, is a pretty good one. While Thomas may not be the player he once was, he’s still pretty good. If he can play 16 games, he’ll be an asset protecting David Garrard’s blind side. Plus, Thomas is big and physical enough to be a good run blocker, which is important given Jacksonville’s offensive bent toward the ground game.

9 (con’t) – Rams (added S James Butler and FB Mike Karney) – Butler played for new Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo with the Giants, and he now moves to the Gateway City with Spags to be the run-stopping strong safety in the St. Louis defense. The Rams have focused on their secondary in free agency, resigning CB Ron Bartell and franchising FS O.J. Atogwe, and Butler (who got $17 million over 4 years) gives them another young building block in that area. Karney is a block-first fullback who fills an important role as the Rams move to a less wide open, more run-first offense. He’s a nice player to have around, and the price (3 years, $3.6M) is reasonable.

8 – Cardinals (added CB Bryant McFadden and LS Mike Leach) – McFadden isn’t a big name at cornerback, but scouts are high on his abilities — especially as a second cornerback. Rookie sensation Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will be the Cards’ undisputed No. 1 corner going into his second season, and McFadden brings physicality and reliability on the other side. This is a good addition in an offseason marked by departures in Arizona. Leach is a dependable long snapper who will replace Nathan Hodel.

7 - Falcons (added LB Mike Peterson and C Brett Romberg) – Peterson was a longtime stalwart in Indianapolis and Jacksonville, but he clashed with Jags head coach Jack Del Rio last year, and that paved his way out of Jacksonville. But Peterson had great success with current Falcons head coach Mike Smith in Jacksonville, so the fit is good. Add that to the fact that the Falcons have lost OLBs Michael Boley and Keith Brooking, and so there was a big need for a veteran ‘backer in the ATL. Romberg fits in as a backup who won’t kill you if he has to start.

7 (con’t) – Chargers (added LB Kevin Burnett) – Burnett was an emerging linebacker in Dallas, but the Cowboys’ desire to lock DeMarcus Ware to a long-term deal made him expendable. The Chargers run a similar system, and so Burnett has a chance to continue his ascent there. He can be a plus starter in San Diego, and he should step in immediately to help that defense.

6 – Browns (added LB David Bowens, DE C.J. Mosley and CB Hank Poteat) – It was ex-Jets week in Cleveland, as new head coach Eric Mangini brought in some players he knows and who, just as importantly, know his defensive system. Bowens is the headline here – he’s an effective pass rusher as a 3-4 outside ‘backer. Poteat is at this point a grizzled vet who can fit in as a cornerback but shouldn’t start except in an emergency. Mosley will be a rotation guy at defensive end.

6 (con’t) – Dolphins (added CB Eric Green) – After Andre Goodman left for Denver, the Dolphins needed to add a potential starter at cornerback. Green can be that. He started six games in Arizona last year before rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie seized that job. Green isn’t great, but he’s an acceptable guy to start a position competition with.

5 – Seahawks (kept OT Ray Willis) – Willis is a versatile player who could potentially play tackle, although he’s slated to start at guard for the Seahawks. Given the contract that Frank Omiyale got from Chicago, Willis (a similar player) was a good guy for Seattle to keep.

5 (con’t) – Patriots (added CB Leigh Bodden and LS Nathan Hodel) – Bodden has played well in his career, but his play really fell off last year. But was that because his skills are slipping or because he was stuck in Detroit? I tend to believe he has a little bit left, which is why this move is above some others. It’s a steal for New England to get him for a minimum salary. Hodel replaces Lonnie Paxton, who moved to Denver.

4 – Bears (added S Josh Bullocks; kept RB Kevin Jones) – The Bears needed safety depth, and so they’re giving Bullocks a shot. Bears fans aren’t excited, thanks mainly to this YouTube video called “How can a safety be this bad?” Even if he is that bad, the price makes it a shot worth taking given the talent drain in Chicago over the past few years. Jones didn’t play much last year, but he showed talent in Detroit before a major injury. He’s an acceptable backup for ‘08 rookie sensation Matt Forte.

3 – Packers (added S Anthony Smith) - Smith got less and less playing time in Pittsburgh last year as the season went on, but he still could be a decent safety option. The Packers have only chased bit-part players in free agency lately, and Smith fits that profile to a T.

3 (con’t) – Chiefs (added CB Travis Daniels, WR C.J. Jones and LB Corey Mays) – Daniels has bounced around a little, but he still could fit as a starter or nickel corner in the right situation. Jones and Mays both have Patriots ties, which made them attractive to new Chiefs head honcho Scott Pioli.

2 – Jets (added LB Larry Izzo and DT Howard Green) – Izzo is a special-teams ace, and Green is a rotation defensive tackle. Both will add depth for the Jets.

2 (con’t) – Vikings (kept CB Benny Sapp and DT Jimmy Kennedy) – Kennedy is important because the Vikings still may lose DTs Pat and Kevin Williams for four games each after the Starcaps issues of last season. Sapp fits in as a third or fourth corner.

1 – Texans (kept S Nick Ferguson) – Ferguson is a borderline starter who did a decent job in his first year in Houston last year, so they opted to keep him. He fits in as a backup who can play OK if called upon.

1 (con’t) – Lions (added OL Daniel Loper and LB Cody Spencer; kept RB Aveion Cason) – Loper and Spencer played in Tennessee when new Lions head coach Jim Schwartz was there. Like Cleveland and K.C., Detroit is filling the back half of its roster with guys the new bosses know.

1 (con’t) – Eagles (added S Rashad Baker) – Sean Jones is the big addition at safety for the Eagles, but Baker, a journeyman who was in Oakland last year, brings depth that’s badly needed after the departures of Brian Dawkins and Sean Considine.

1 (con’t) – Steelers (kept LB Andre Frazier) – Anytime the Steelers re-sign a free agent, it’s worth noting. Frazier isn’t a starter, but he can play the system in case of injury.