Windermere West Valley

© 2007-2009 Arizona Premiere Living

Windermere West Valley Partners

34406 N. 27th Dr. Bldg. 9, Ste. 198

Phoenix, AZ 85085

480/220-8022

623/594-2300 ]]> http://nwphoenixrealestateguide.com/2009/11/09/the-october-phoenix-real-estate-reports-are-in%e2%80%a6/ Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:11:41 +0000 azpremiere http://nwphoenixrealestateguide.com/2009/11/09/the-october-phoenix-real-estate-reports-are-in%e2%80%a6/

I’ll keep this one quick and pulpy primarily because not a great deal has changed in the numbers.  This, if you haven’t been following, is a good thing.  Let’s get right to the charts  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

Here in the Active, Sold & New Listings chart, we can see that the number of active homes on the market has gone up slightly, but with the increased number of sales – slightly above last month’s numbers – the inventory calculation went down slightly to 4.81 months.

The Sold DOM vs. Units chart illustrates the elevated number of sales over the last month, and shows that there is still steam in this market.  This market has sold at least 7.5K homes every month since March of this year and has really put a dent into the days on market number.

When we look at the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart, we see that prices are down slightly – likely due to the lower list price – however the sales dollar volume has increased slightly for the third month in a row.

Moving to the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart, we again see the drop in sales price, but we also a steadily falling days on market number – now down under 90 days where we would love to see it stay.

As we look at the Price Change Trends chart, we can see that price reductions on active properties with price changes are actually on par with those of 2 years ago.  This represents a sort of climbing out of a race to the bottom mentality and a reclamation of value in real estate which is something that this market has lacked for the last couple of years now.

Though the numbers aren’t drastically different from the last couple of months, there is still much to be excited about and much to be concerned about as well.  On the one hand, the indicators that we are looking at in the above charts along with the new and improved $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit (it actually includes something for existing homeowners as well) paint a very promising picture for the real estate market in the next 6 months, but on the other hand, unemployment numbers are on the rise and the economy remains in shambles giving us pause when we look to the future.  I always say that the real estate market does not happen in a vacuum, and sooner or later, one factor will always catch-up with the other; we just hope that reunion is a peaceful one.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently. Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

Well it’s now official.  The Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 was signed into law today, and among other measures, extends the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit, but there are some things that are important to point out.

The real difference in this iteration is the fact that now the tax credit has been expanded to people who currently own homes, however that credit is $6,500, and in order to qualify, homeowners must have owned their current home for 5 consecutive years out of the last 8.  According to sources, this would now make up to 70% of current homeowners eligible for the expanded program.

There are income restrictions (they’ve actually been increased) that you should be aware of that apply both to first time homebuyers as well as current homeowners.  For individuals making an annual income of $125K or less, or couples making $225K or less, who have not owned a home in the last three years, you are now eligible to claim the $8,000 on your taxes provided that you have an accepted contract on a home by May 1, 2010 and have it closed by the end of June.  This applies to purchases of $800K or  less, and only applies to a primary residence.

People taking advantage of this program, whether a first time homebuyer or a current homeowner moving-up into a new home, would be able to claim this purchase on their 2009 taxes, even if the purchase was made in 2010 by filing an amended return.

Politics aside, this is a move that will certainly help keep a head of steam behind this market movement that we’ve been watching do some great things for the last 5 months.  This also eliminates much of the anxious speculation that has been going on in this industry for the last few months and allows those folks who have had trouble finding something breathe a little easier.

Remember, if you’ve got any questions about the current state of the expanded tax credit, or if you have questions about Phoenix real estate in general, please let us know, and thanks for reading.

2649 E. Cedar Pl. – Chandler, AZ 85249

I’ve had messages from both agent colleagues and lenders alike informing me that the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit has been extended until April of 2010. Although the wheels are turning to perhaps make this true, nothing to date has yet been made official. I repeat, nothing has yet been made official.

We never know exactly what will happen in this buisness, but, as professionals, we’ve got a responsibility not to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to making calls on this stuff. So, before we start making official pronouncements here, let’s wait until we have all the facts. I know it’s unlike me to be so brief, but I wanted to get this out there as quickly as possible.

Remember, if you’ve got any questions about the current state of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, or if you have questions about Phoenix real estate in general, please let us know, and thanks for reading.

3537 W. Spirit Ln. – Anthem, AZ 85086

Short sale opportunity in award winning master planned community. Home is located within walking distance of Anthem’s incredible community park, schools, and shopping centers. Spacious open floor plan with open loft/den upstairs. Little custom touches such as real window sills and diagonally laid 18” ceramic tile, sunscreens on all windows, water features on the pool and two gazebos in the backyard make this a special home. Home is also equipped with 20 amp outlets in garage and plumbed for a solar heat pool cover. Newly painted exterior as well. Refrigerator, washer/dryer, swamp cooler is downstairs in living room, and Jacuzzi in backyard do not convey with sale of home. This is what living in Arizona is all about. Is this a home you might like to see in person? If so, please call Jerry Murphy at 602/334-3757, or send him an email at JWMurphy@Windermere.com, or call Ben Bailey at 480/220-8022, or send him an email at Ben@ArizonaPremiereLiving.com. Find your place in the sun.

14123 W. Christy Dr. – Surprise, AZ 85379

Here is a fantastic home with upgrades throughout – from the upgraded chef’s kitchen with custom installed granite counters, island, and back splash to the upgraded carpeting and light fixtures – all sitting on a .99 acre blank-slate property. The front yard is tastefully landscaped, however, the backyard is waiting for a buyer with an imagination that is big enough to fill it. Step into this home with piece of mind; the seller had a comprehensive property inspection of the property, and anything that came up on the report as a repair item has been corrected. All in one level, this home is the perfect one to call your own.  This is what living in Arizona is all about. Is this a home you might like to see in person? If so, please call Jerry Murphy at 602/334-3757, or send him an email at JWMurphy@Windermere.com, or call Ben Bailey at 480/220-8022, or send him an email at Ben@ArizonaPremiereLiving.com.  Find your place in the sun.

In a nutshell, the Phoenix real estate market held relatively steady, and did little in the way of variation from last month, so rather than bore you to death with my typically captivating and always interesting analysis of the market, I’ll get right to the numbers and will struggle to be brief.  On with the numbers…  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

Here in the Active, Sold & New Listings chart we see that inventory is up slightly as are new listings, and sales are slightly down. 

In the Sold DOM vs. Units chart, we see that although sales are down below the level that they were this summer, days on market continue to fall.

As we look at the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart, we see that both list prices as well as sold prices are up slightly from the previous month.

The data in the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart has all been represented in one of the other charts, but it does show the market working in the the direction we like it to work.

I’ve been watching Price Change Trends chart very closely for the last year or so and first pointed out then that we were looking at some modest form of recovery, and if this is an early predictor of market prices–which I maintain it is–I think we’ll continue to see prices continue to recover, albeit modestly, through the winter months and into spring where we ought to see the market’s natural forces take over for a few months.

There, that was pretty painless:  not too verbose; kept it pretty high-level, and stayed out of the weeds.  I don’t think it would be all bad to have a couple of months just like this…the market, not my comments!  Why I oughtta…

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

To see more beautiful homes like this visit: www.ArizonaPremiereLiving.com

What is it that keeps us listening to music?  No, I won’t let you get away with a simple answer–”because I enjoy it”.  Why do we enjoy it?  Has anyone every satisfactorily explained that? 

I think, in order to take a stab at answering that question, we have to take a look at why our ancestors “invented” music.  I put invented in quotes because I think that a pretty strong case can be made to point out that rather than being invented, it was a device or mechanism used to mimic things that naturally occurred around them.

For the Classical Greeks, music was a very big undertaking rooted in religious implications.  The 2 principal instruments used to create Classical Greek music were the aulos and the lyre.  The aulos was a double-reed instrument with a high-pitched, nasal sound–much like a modern clarinet–and the lyre was a stringed instrument that can be best described as an early harp (although it wouldn’t sound much like today’s harp). 

On the one hand, the aulos was said to mimic the sound of the Gorgon Medusa’s screams as her head was lifted from her shoulders by the hero Perseus.  Stefan Hagel’s pages have some great information and feature some examples of aulos recordings here.  The aulos was the sonic representation of all that was chaotic in the world, and just by listening to a couple of examples on the aulos page from above, we get the picture.

On the other hand, the lyre (or kithara), or better, the tuning convention utilized on the instrument, was said to mimic the order and relationship between the planets as they saw them.  Again, check out Stefan Hagel’s page here for examples of kithara recordings. 

Whereas with the aulos we had chaos, with the lyre we have a sense of order and things belonging in their natural place, so, quite literally, Classical Greek music was the representation of everything–the yin and yang, as it were–in one place.  Music played a central role, but just as important as the music itself was dance–in and of itself, a highly stylized activity with plenty of religious significance–and verse, about which I’d like to talk a bit more.

Verse was important because in a society that had long existed in an oral tradition, the information that it was to be conveyed needed to be uniform to large extent.  They obviously didn’t have printing presses that ensured that the same information that was given to one person in the city was the same information given to another person in the countryside, so there needed to be some kind of convention or mechanism that allowed the information that was to be conveyed, to be conveyed with some kind of uniformity.  This information ranged from exploits of mythic gods, to labors of heroic characters, to fables and lessons, but one of the ways that they made sure that uniformity existed was to put the information to song.

So, put into context, music helps us come up with a prism through which to view the world.  Music helps us understand the unknown, reinforces ideas that we already have, and its lyrical observations provide us with a framework that we can use to, in a sense, lay over the top of the world around us.  Much like how I marvel at a well-read person’s ability to pull from a text that he or she has read and use it to explain or describe a situation or parallel situation that has happened in that person’s life, music provides for that same potential, albeit in a more simplified fashion and in a different vernacular if you will.

If you play any music, or at least understand the basic chord progressions of modern Western music, how would you explain why the same 3 chords used thousands of times over can be paired with the same lyrics–because we only have a limited number of words in our language and limited still by the number of words that can then be used to rhyme with those words–about love, death, and happiness, and people can then still find enjoyment in those same things as though they were new again? 

Perhaps that’s a larger question than the one that I set out to answer originally, but I think their answers are similar.  The fact is that humans have always lived in a world, to one degree or another, of chaos with “the unexplained” always baying at us like wolves on the edge of civilization, and one universal way for us to make sense of it all is to listen to how others deal- have dealt, are dealing–with the unknown.  Music helps us be closer to each other in ways that we may not ever understand–think of the parallels between the relationship between the heartbeat of a mother and her unborn child and how we may hear that familiar cadence in the rhythm and beat of a song.

These are big questions and I know I’ve just scratched the surface on some of these things, but I’d like YOU to think:  Why Music?  Think critically.  What does it mean to you, and why do you listen to it?  And before you closet classicists and ethnomusicologists have a field-day with my interpretation of Classical Greek music, please realize that you cannot argue with an ignoramus–it’s futile and you’ll just make both of us look silly.

Proving once again that we do more than just show you the best deals in the Phoenix real estate market; we show you how to get the most out of living in Arizona, and try to help you get the most out of what you are listening to.

One of the many things I love about Anthem Arizona is the natural beauty, which includes the mountains. As I was driving to the office the other day I snapped this photo of Daisy Mountain. Anthem is situated at the base of this aptly named mountain. During the spring it is resplendent with yellow daisies. For more photos of go to the “Pictures of Anthem” page here at All About Anthem.

Well folks, here they are again.  My apologies for the tardiness, but we’ve been busy–we’re working 2 and 3x as hard as we used to, and transactions just don’t come together anymore; they need a babysitter throughout the entire process.  Enough of my babbling.  Let’s look at the charts.  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

The Active, Sold & New Listings chart shows that there has been a definite cooling-off in the market.  Sold units are down almost exactly 1,000 from the previous month, however, new listings are down slightly as well, so the overall market inventory only increased by about 2 weeks to 4.75 months, so we are *technically* in a seller’s market (for at least part of the market anyway – see here where I talk about the tale of 2 markets)

In the Sold DOM vs. Units chart, we again see the somewhat drastic decline in units sold, but what we really see here is that it is taking less time than any other time in the last 2 years to sell a home.  Look for this number to head upward a bit next month.

What we see in the Volumes & Avg. Prices chart is that, among statistics that we’ve covered already, sale prices are down, but even more curiously, list prices are down as well.  This is probably due to a combination of reasons but is certainly not a reaction to falling sales prices, and is probably related to banks attempting to stimulate more market activity as first-time homebuyers scoop-up the last of the attractive inventor that allows them to close escrow on a home by the end of November in an attempt to qualify for the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit.

In the Sold DOM vs. Sold Price chart, we again see the shortening in the amount of time it takes to sell a home as well as the drop in sales prices from the prior month, and  we’ll see if that is simply an anomaly.

When we take a look at the Price Change Trends chart, we continue to see the positive movement when it comes to the shrinking amount of price reductions for active listings on the market both in dollars as well as percentage.  We’d like to get that percentage of price reduction down under 10%, but we’ve got a while before that’s likely to happen, and we may see some bumps in the other direction in the next couple of months, or, at least some leveling of that trend.

This is a market that is in flux right now, and as I’ve discussed here, the approaching deadline for first-time homebuyers to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit is likely to further cool the market, and I look for homes that are currently under contract–tied up in short sale negotiations with the banks–to come back on the market, so not only will we see the usual new listings hitting the market as new active properties, but we will also see pending and active w/contingency properties coming back onto the market as well.  This may be our market’s double-dip, but this is just speculation and might not happen, and doesn’t take into account investors who are waiting to scoop-up this kind of inventory, so, as usual, we’ll just have to see what happens.  The ONLY thing I can guarantee you in this or any market is that it WILL change.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

I’ve posted the link to the audio at the end of this review, but I would love for you to check out the review first, listen, and then let me know what you think. 

I’ve been listening to every ‘82 show I can get my hands on, and thanks to the Internet Archive, and specifically, their “Dead Zone”, I can stream these shows, and I often have a selection of several versions of the same show to choose from.  Back to 1982…  ‘82 is a really hot year that sort of gets forgotten between the big years of ‘77 and ‘85, but it is fantastic music that should be heard.  The band seems fresh, and they have a couple of things going for them that the 2 big years above weren’t able to afford them. 

In ‘77 (and ‘78 to a larger extent) the Godchauxs were weighing the band down.  Donna for one reason or another (there are lots of arguments in her defense as well as arguments against her) Donna became very shrill, and Keith’s grand piano had locked the band into a place that made it difficult for them to be dynamic and evolutionary.  Besides, Keith’s battle with alcohol had made him little more than a sleeping fixture on stage.

In mid ‘79, Brent Mydland essentially filled the spot that both Godchauxs had occupied, and came in with not only a new sound vocally, but he supplied a new array of sounds on the keys that really allowed the band to explore the bounds that they had previously occupied.  Although 12/01/79 is one of my all-time favorites, it really did take a couple of years for Brent to really settle-in and find his space in the music and probably took as long for the band understand where he was in the music as well.  It is interesting to note that in the previous Spring tour, Jerry had switched sides on the stage with Phil on 04/02/82 in order to be next to Brent, a position he would remain in while on stage for the duration.

Back to the concert…  What a show!  I’m a sucker for Jack Straw shows, and maybe I’m a total geek, but I’ve even got a Great Northern t-shirt.  The band is listening to each other, and playing well together.  The Jack Straw pleases, the Sugaree is fantastic, Cassidy hits those outer limits but brings it all back home, but that Cumberland Blues simply blisters–it is definitely one of the good ones that I asked about in a previous post about best versions/performances of Dead songs.

I was a bit worried when I saw the Lazy Lightning, but from the first notes, you realize that this isn’t 1985 where they play it much faster than their ability to make it sound any good.  This one cooks and satisfies, and so does the Deal to end the first set.  I love a good Deal first set ender.

In typical fashion, a first set starting with Jack Straw is coupled with a second set starting with China>>>Rider, and this one has all the components you would want.  This is a good one to listen to in order to get a feel of the band.  There is so much energy brewing here, but it’s all about how well it is harnessed.  In fact, and I’m not the first to say this, but the recurring train theme in Dead music is the perfect metaphor for the band–so much power moving on its own and the question is, how to control it.  Sometimes you just have to hold on, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Women Are Smarter is fun, Never Trust a Woman showcasing Brent’s personality is gritty, and the Lost Sailor>>>Saint of Circumstance is right on the money.  They explore, and as you’ll find typical of this particular show, they all coalesce around that emotionally climactic rallying-point in the music.  Again, you may not always know where you are within the context of the music, but you have the confidence that the band will help pull you out of it and allow you to make some sense of where the music has taken you.

He’s Gone, a usual jumping-off point, helps propel this one into that second half of the second set otherworldly realm and dumps you off into a short drums and then into space.  I agree with folks who say that Not Fade Away should pull out of space rather than end the show, and that’s exactly what happens here.  Maneuvering out of the fog, they give form to chaos, and before you know it, you are listening to the old familiar cadence of Not Fade Away, and it feels good.  Brent’s organ swirls while Jerry’s guitar shreds and Bob finds those funny angles in the music; all the while Phil is dropping sonic bombs and Mickey and Billy are laying down a gauntlet.

Once they’ve squeezed that one for every drop, they send you off on an up-tempo Wharf Rat.  I cannot stress this enough, but the Dead understood the power of silence as well as the power of volume, and it is readily apparent in this one.  They are spot-on in this version instrumentally, and their harmonies are quite good–again, a fact that owes a great deal to bandmates listening to each other.  Another aspect of the band that this song tells about is the overall physical condition of the band.  In later years when Jerry ballooned-up, he would absolutely struggle through this song, typically placed late in the second set, and it would be dreadfully evident in his vocals.  This one is very nice.

The Around and Around is, well, it’s Around and Around, and although the Good Lovin’ starts a little shaky, it settles down and yields a really nice Bob rap and build-up to the end.  The U.S. Blues encore is a nice one to hear and is a great exclamation point to this show, and this is not just a mail-it-in encore either; these guys are still at work, and you can tell by the crowd bleed-in through the mics that the crowd loves it.  This encore is a real thankyou from the band to the crowd–the band loves it too.

All in all, this is a fantastic show.  Sure you will find problems with it, but this show comes from a time when they were playing really well and enjoying themselves.  I would definitely recommend checking this show out as well as challenge you to listen to that whole ‘82 – ‘83 period and weigh it against what might be your favorite period.  This is good stuff and it rocks.  Here is the link (enjoy, and again, let me know what you think, and while you’re at it, tell me what YOU are listening to):

http://www.archive.org/details/gd82-05-22.sbd.gorinsky.5215.sbeok.shnf

Proving once again that we do more than just show you the best deals in the Phoenix real estate market; we show you how to get the most out of living in Arizona, and try to help you get the most out of what you are listening to.

photo courtesy blog.oregonlive.com

I haven’t said anything about Les Paul since his death a week ago, but I’ll just say that when I saw Les Paul guitar for the first time, I just had to have one.  In guitar parlance, you are, very very generally, either a Les Paul guy or a Stratocaster guy.  If you are familiar with the sound, you’ll know that the Les Paul has a deeper tone, or, as I like to call it, a bit of a growl to it, in comparison to the twangy brightness of the Strat.

We’ve got Les Paul to thank for two of the most important musical innovations of the 20th century:  the electric guitar, and multi-track recording.  We take it all for granted because we are just used to hearing music rather than recording it, but if you’ve ever done any recording, you know that multi-track recording not only changed the way it was recorded, but changed the way we all listen to music, and what we expect to hear when we are listening to it.

Rather than talk about his life – there’s plenty of information about Les Paul and his life story – I would rather you sit back and listen to him play and talk about his life and his music.  Accompanied by Marian McPartland who is a fantastic pianist – if you can ever catch her show, please do – Paul Nowinski on bass, and Lou Pallo on rhythm guitar, Les Paul gives you a big juicy slice of musical history that deserves a listen.

Please take a listen here, enjoy, and share your thoughts:

http://www.archive.org/serve/LesPaul1996-2002PianoJazzMarianMcPartlandNYC/LesPaul1996-2002PianoJazzMarianMcPartlandNYC.wma

Proving once again that we do more than just show you the best deals in the Phoenix real estate market; we show you how to get the most out of living in Arizona, and try to help you get the most out of what you are listening to.

courtesy uweekly.com

Football season is nigh, and I can smell it.  Though it’s consistently been about 108 degrees here for the last month here in Arizona, we are ready–My wife actually commented that she was excited for it to be here.  Perhaps, for me, football season is doubly enjoyable now because not only do I get to watch my hometown Colts but I get to watch the Phoenix Cards as well who’ve been really fun to watch over the last couple of seasons.

The approach of football season this time also brings with it the aroma of controversy.  I’m happy Michael Vick has paid his debt to society and everything–that’s how our legal system works–but I still have questions about his re-instatement and recent signing with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If, as Roger Goodell wrote, Michael Vick’s “conduct has brought embarrassment and ridicule upon [himself], [his] club and the NFL,” then what has Michael Vick done to reverse that damage.  If Goodell was protecting the league’s integrity, how has Michael Vick’s prison stint somehow limited the league’s “P.R. liability”.

Let’s way it against other professions…  I know that, as a REALTOR covering the Phoenix real estate market, if I violate the public trust and bring embarrassment upon my profession, I run a very real risk of losing my ability to practice my profession.  What about doctors, lawyers, firemen, police officers, etc?  If they lose their job for violating that trust, they must find another line of work.  Michael Vick not only violated the law–to which, as I mentioned before, he has served his societal debt–but he also violated the terms of his player contract, and in my world it’s time for him to look for a new job, and Michael, you may want to cancel that interview with PETA.

It isn’t just about Michael Vick though.  If you cruise over to http://nflcrimes.blogspot.com/, you’ll see how many of these guys just can’t seem to stay out of trouble.  Just scroll down the list and you’ll see everything from misdemeanor traffic violations to assault, drunk and disorderly conduct, DUIs, to manslaughter and attempted murder.

I think the NFL has a big P.R. problem, and though I’m all in favor of giving people a chance in life, and love the story about someone gone bad who comes back around to the good side, I don’t think that Goodell’s re-instatement of Michael Vick lends any credibility to his “get tough” stance against criminals in the league.  I think it just muddies the waters, and makes everyone look bad.  Ultimately the fans–specifically the fans in Philly–will decide whether Vick will work in Philadelphia, and public opinion will decide whether he is fit to play in the league.

Enjoy the season, and go Colts (Cards too)!

I’ve been wanting to ask this one for a while now–I actually started this post on 03/14/09–and I thought this would be the perfect venue to ask the question:  Whatever happened?  At the risk of sounding like a crotchety old Andy Rooney, I have a few questions that start with the aforementioned interrogative… 

Whatever happened to kids knowing how many stiches on a baseball?  Do they know this?  Everytime I muffed a ball and looked longingly at it for answers as it lay on the ground before me, I would hear a coach yell out of the dugout, “108 of ‘em” as though I wanted to know at that point.

Whatever happened to kids wearing their ballcaps the way they were intended?  When I was a kid, and I got a brand-new ball cap, the first thing I would do to it is start flexing that bill so that when I put it on, it felt like it was made for me.  Besides being a part of the uniform, the ball cap had a funtion – to keep the sun out of your eyes (I might add that I’ve had the bill of my cap deflect more than a handful of bad hops in my life).

Now I see something so common that it just makes me scratch my head: The super-flat bill. See, that’s how peculiar it is – I don’t even know what to call it. People, do you know how uncomfortable that must be? I mean c’mon, you have to order your cap 2-3 sizes larger than normal just to accomodate for the for the span of the flattened bill across the forehead.
I don’t know about you guys, but this would absolutely drive me crazy, and how would you keep it on your head and from flying off every time you went to chase down a ball?

Whatever happened to kids playing catch in the street or playing a pickup football game?  Do kids still do these things, or are they too busy being mathaletes, text messaging and playing totally sick video games?  I’m sorry, but I just saw a kid who looked like he must be about 8 years old, riding a bike and talking on his mobile phone.  That’s crazy…  Oh, I don’t mean that’s ‘crazy’; it’s just bizarre.

Whatever happened to paper routes?  I freakin’ quit! 

I’ve got a bunch of these questions that I want to throw out there, but I want to hear what you think.  Let’s hear your comments – I want to know if you can get as fired-up about it as I am.

At ArizonaPremiereLiving.com, we don’t just talk about Phoenix real estate, but we talk about the things we have a passion for – like sports – and that’s the whole reason for ArizonaPremiereSports.com. For more information about us and the things we enjoy, check out our blog and visit our Arizona Premiere Living Resources Page and check out the Sports Resources section.

Courtesy Steve Zipser and Setlist.com

My business partner told me this morning that Mickey Hart had been a good friend of Walter Cronkite, and that Cronkite had been something of a closet Head.  The way they met, or as well as I could piece it together, is pretty interesting.  Apparently, Stephen Stills was to do the music for a sailing documentary that Cronkite was going to be narrating.  The long and the short of it was that Stills ended-up flaking-out and Mickey along  with Jerry Garcia, Carlos Santana and some others put together a soundtrack for the documentary, and that’s how the two met and eventually became friends.

The articles that I read placed that meeting some time in ‘87 or shortly thereafter, so I’m not completely clear on the date, but Mickey invited Cronkite to a show at MSG and Cronkite reluctantly accepted.  His comment to Mickey was that he was looking for reasons to leave during the show, but couldn’t find one.  He was hooked.

In any event, I thought it might be appropriate to try and track down the show, but with little success.  Oh, I have access to the show, I just don’t know which it is…  Not having any luck finding the date I was looking for, and for the purposes of just simply listening to the music rather than getting lost in research, I chose this show from Saturday night in a 5 night run – hey, I’m a sucker for Maggie’s Farm (don’t worry, I’ve included a link for the show below, but read first).  I’ve long had the  show from the night before which features a smoking La Bamba, but I had overlooked this little gem.

The recording quality of this soundboard is particularly good, and as is the case with most MSG shows, the mood is electrifying, and the band is on and having some fun.  Also of note is the fact that this one was being broacast on television for the FarmAid Benefit, hence the particular importance of Maggie’s Farm appearance in this show.

From the very start the music is very tight and, though the lyrics get flubbed quite a bit, the setlist is good, and one thing I always like to hear is interaction between the band and the audience.  In the first set, we hear, “we want Phil. we want Phil.”  Phil makes reference to how well restrained the crowd had been in the nights before, and rewards the crowd with Box of Rain – one I always like to see in a setlist.

The Crazy Fingers > UJB > Playin’ is very good, but particulary the transition into Playin’ – it is right on the money.  Drums and Space are enjoyable, and this comes from a guy who used to wear out his fast forward button as he zipped through Drums and Space every chance he heard it – boy was I happy when I could just advance to the next track on a CD.

The post Drums and Space sequence is really nice with Miracle into a Maggie’s Farm that lives up to expectations.  This was the first time they had done this one on their own after having played it 3x while touring with Dylan a couple of months before.  It is un-rehearsed, spontaneous, and very hot.  Not all of the lyric assignments had been as worked out as they would be in later years, but the unknown often comes together and yields wonderful results.

Lovelight is short and sweet but hot, and is a good capper for the 2nd set.  The encore is a sweet Black Muddy River – one that always makes my eyes feel like they are about to well-up.  This one is well-played and by the book, but everyone sounds good, and Brent’s tinkling on the keys through the second part of the chorus makes the hair stand up on my arms.

Overall, this show more than satisfies, and is a good example of how the band could rise to the occasion when it needed to.  It’s a stellar show, and one I think you ought to listen to.  Let me know what you think.  Enjoy the show:

http://www.archive.org/details/gd87-09-19.sbd.mccarthy.396.sbeok.shnf

Proving once again that we do more than just show you the best deals in the Phoenix real estate market; we show you how to get the most out of living in Arizona, and try to help you get the most out of what you are listening to.

Howdy folks.  It’s time for the latest and greatest numbers.  This month is again, more of the same from the previous couple of months, but that is a good thing.  Let’s get right to the charts–and remember, click on the chart to enlarge (opens in a new window).

The active, sold & new listings shows us much of what we’ve seen already – that sales continue to hover around that 9,000 mark for about the 4th month in a row, driving active properties down under 40,000 leaving an inventory level slightly lower than the last month at just over 4 months of inventory.

Of note here, since we’ve already seen the sales number, is the days on market that continue to trend downward.  I will feel much better when this number sits comfortably under 90 days.

We like what we see here.  Again we see slight improvement in sale prices over last month, and in the last 4 months, we’ve seen nearly $17,000 in appreciation on the average in the Phoenix real estate market.  Look at the dollar volume in sales too, and compare that data along with sale price to the same data 2 years prior.

Here again, we see the effect that this buying frenzy is having on the days on market.

This is one that, admittedly, I’ve had some trouble explaining over the last couple of months, but I think that the trend is picking back up, and the bottom line is that, for properties with price changes, we are seeing those price decreases shrinking both in terms of actual amounts as well as in percentage of list price.  We will continue to monitor this one because Istill contend that it is a pretty good predictor of things to come.

 What does all of this say about the Phoenix real estate market?  It certainly tells me that things have been set in motion to help right this market and that sellers have capitualated to buyers’ needs and we’ve reached that point where buyers and sellers are in agreement.*  The real question is not really about what is happening now, but what will happen in the near future.  This market has been fueled in large part by first-time homebuyers taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit, and investors who have pulled much of their cash out of the equity markets and put it into real estate bargains.  What will happen when the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit goes away?  What will happen if the stock market takes off, attracting investor cash, depressing bond yields, and driving mortgage rates up?  What will happen if we continue to bleed jobs at the current rate?  These are just a couple of concerns I’ve got. 

*sellers, or, more appropriately, sellers’ banks may not be happy about the terms of an offer, but the bottom line is that they are accepting the terms.

As depressing as those subjects are, I think that living in Phoenix and moving to Arizona have a universal appeal and are what have made this Valley grow like it has over the past 10 – 15 years.  We don’t have hurricanes; no floods; no earthquakes; no snow; and we have 300+ days of sunshine to top it all off.  These are the things that make this place a desirable place to live, visit, or to own a second home in, and these are the things that I feel will give us a little bit of an edge in the face of continued economic challenges.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

At the risk of becoming completely monotonous, my post this month is almost going to be a duplicate of last month with only a couple of differences, but major differences nonetheless.  I’ll try to spare you the usual long-windedness and go right to the charts.  Remember, click on any of the charts to see the larger version (opens in a new window).

What do I say that is different from the month before here?  Nothing really except that active listings in the Phoenix real estate market are down again.  In fact, they are down to 4.23 months worth of inventory – technically a seller’s market, but as I said last month, it’s really only a seller’s market in certain price ranges.  I’ll make an illustration on this point below.

Again, sold units are up, and because of the enormous demand for well-priced homes (i.e., bank-owned, short sales, etc), it continues to bring down the overall amount of time it takes to actually sell the home.  That point is amazing to me because there is a sizable chunk of the market that isn’t selling and continues to accumulate days on market, so I would for this trend to reach a point of diminishing returns, so to speak, and flatten-out and eventually trend back upward slightly.

This is a pretty interesting chart.  By looking at it, we can see that sold dollar volume is actually on par with sold dollar volume 2 years ago, but what is interesting is that homes, roughly speaking, cost half as much as they did then.  Does that tell you how many units we have sold compared to 2 years ago?  That’s right – about twice as many.

We’ve seen these numbers already, but we certainly see the upward movement in sales prices steadily over the last 3 months in total amount of about $13,000.  This is about how much value a home in this market has lost every 2 months for the last 2 years, so I cannot over-emphasize how important this shift is. 

As I noted in previous posts, this one is a bit difficult to gauge right now, and I will make some observations on this chart going forward as I have more data to work from, but I will say that the average reduction in price for active listings continues to decrease as a percentage of list price, and that’s something that we’ve continued to observe for about the last six months, and I hope it continues.

What do we make of all of this?  As I mentioned above, it certainly is a seller’s market based on the numbers, but it really is a tale of 2 markets.  On the one hand, we have the distressed property market, and on the other hand, we have everything else.  The distressed property market is SOOOOOOO hot right now (and has been) that it is making the entire market look good. 

Here is an email that I sent to some colleagues this past week concerning these numbers:  

Thought you might find these numbers interesting—they give us a little peek at the answer to my questions earlier:  For June 2009, the ‘sold avg. list price’ was $178,272 & the ‘sold avg. sale price’ was $171,781 for a 96.4% SP/LP ratio, and interestingly, the ‘new listing avg. list price’ is $230,421.  Do you wanna take a guess at the ‘active listing avg. list price’?  It’s $392,538.  In a market where we’ve seen some pretty wild swings in the numbers this is one that has not changed all that much.  In the last 2 years, that number has stayed within a $70,000 bracket—In July of 2007, the ‘active listing avg. list price’ was at a peak of $417,603 and a low in January of 2009 of $342,997.  Like I said, it doesn’t tell the whole story, but it certainly fills in some of those blanks.

I’ll go ahead and file this one in the category of “things I wish I had said but didn’t”…  I recently read a great John Derbyshire observation (most of them ARE great) the other day where he succinctly and accurately made the following comments about the deaths of Michael Jackson and Farah Fawcett: 

“Jackson, like Fawcett, was a relic of the time when we were a single nation, listening to the same pop songs, going to the same movies, sticking the same babe posters on our bedroom walls, laughing at the same jokes, even giving our kids names from a common stock. Whether Jackson should be extravagantly mourned or not, I leave to you to decide; but that era of national-cultural unity surely should be. Requiescat in pace.”  Read the entire entry here.

He’s right.  We’ve become so specialized in the music we listen to, in the sports we play, in the television shows we watch, etc.  When I was younger, there was pop, rock, rap, and oldies on the radio; We played baseball in the summer, football in the fall, basketball in the winter, and so on; There were a handful of things to watch on network television, and on cable, we had ESPN when it seemed that they were showing 24 hour coverage of Australian Rules Football, plus we had MTV which actually used to play videos.  I know my parents would laugh at the number of choices that I’ve laid out already, but compared to what is available now, that was IT.

These people didn’t have to pitch reality shows to Lifetime Networks and have some dopy crew follow them around with cameras and microphones so that we could sit around saying, “why are we watching these no-talent ass-clowns”?  No, these people were stars because, in a pool of entertainment so limited, not in terms of ability or creativity, but in terms of sheer depth, these people naturally stood out, and had somewhat of a captive audience.

Whatever you think about someone like Michael Jackson, what with all of his eccentricities and his bizzare and downright disgusting behavior, he along with Farah Fawcett represented a time that, for better or worse, we’ve pushed beyond.  My old poet friend and mentor, Jared Carter, argued a decade ago that we’ve turned into a society of producers of art with fewer and fewer consumers of it, and the net result is that those consumers have more crap than art to consume.  I tend to agree with him as well.

There has been much talk in recent weeks about giving buyers the ability to use their $8,000 first time home-buyer tax credit in lieu of cash as downpayment (you, in essence, sell your tax credit back to the lender) on a home, and a great deal of the information is, at worst, errant, and at best, incomplete.  The bottom line is that the details are still being hammered-out, but here are the basic requirements:

• The proceeds of the sale of the tax credit may not exceed the anticipated tax credit due the homebuyer based on the computations of form IRS 5405;
• The borrower must submit a signed certification that the tax credit is not subject to offset due to other indebtedness.
• A copy of the borrower’s tax refund and/or the IRS 5405 must be collected and retained in the FHA case binder. 
• Any costs attendant to the purchase of the tax credit are to be nominal and discounting the anticipated credit to cover the costs and expenses of the transaction must be reasonable and disclosed to the homebuyer.  In FHA’s view, fees and costs that total more than 2.5% of the anticipated credit are considered excessive.  (Example:  $6000 to be refunded, with all fees and costs discounted, borrower should receive not less than $5850.00 for sale of tax credit.)
• Pursuant to 12 U.S.C. 1709(b)(9), the homebuyer’s downpayment required for eligibility for FHA insurance may not consist of any funds (including funds derived from a sale of the homebuyer tax credit) provided by the mortgagee, the seller, or any other person or entity that financially benefits from the transaction (or by any third party or entity that is reimbursed, directly or indirectly, by the financially benefiting person or entity).  Accordingly, the proceeds of the sale of the tax credit to FHA approved mortgagees, the seller, or any other person or entity that financially benefits from the transaction (or any third party or entity that is reimbursed, directly or indirectly, by the financing benefiting person or entity), may not be used to meet the 3.5% minimum downpayment, but may be used as additional downpayment, buying down of interest rate, or other closing costs.

There are more stipulations, but I just wanted to make sure you had the basic framework for this new program.  I have posted the mortgagee letter on my website to help clarify some of the confusion, but the bottom line is that the funds can be used for closing costs, prepaids and to reduce the loan amount beyond the 3.5% down payment required by FHA, however the advancement CAN NOT be used to meet the minimum 3.5% down payment requirement.  In other words, the homebuyer still must come in with at least 3.5% down.  The funds will be made available to home buyer through the “sale” of their future tax credit, and according to the mortgagee letter, FHA-approved mortgagees and FHA-approved nonprofit organizations as well as Federal, state, and local governmental agencies and instrumentalities thereof may purchase the tax credit anticipated by the homebuyer.

I hope that this information is useful to you, and if you think you know someone who might benefit from this information, please pass it along.  Remember that at Arizona Premiere Living, we do more than just show you the best deals for Phoenix real estate; we help you get the most out of living in Arizona.

Wow – What a month!  I thought April was nuts, but the Month of May would prove to be much more active.  These last couple of months rival even the boom months of September and October of 2006 in terms of actual units sold.  Let’s go straight to the charts, and remember that clicking the chart will enlarge it (will open in a new window).

In keeping with the broken record theme, it is easy to tell here that sales are up (over 9,000 homes sold in May) and inventory is down (just over 40,000).  In fact, inventory is down below 5 months, and I’ll put an asterisk next to this statement, but that is what many define as a ’seller’s market’.  I put an asterisk next to it only because this is not a normal market…

Again, units sold are up considerably and the time it takes to get a home sold is down slightly.  One thing to note is the widening gap between Agent Days and Cumulative Days. This would indicate that buyers have to one degree capitulated to the market.  One agent is unsuccessful in selling the home, so sellers find another agent who likely tells them that they will need to reduce the price of the home in order to get it sold.  The longer it is on the market, the more agreeable sellers become.  Interesting little thing I’ve bee watching for a while…

We can see here (again) that sales volume is very high, and for the second month in a row, we’ve experienced some market appreciation – about $6,000 in the last 2 months.  That doesn’t sound like much, but  I think I have said before that when you’ve been losing $8,000 in value every month for the last 2 years, putting a parachute on is a priority, and the last 2 months show a very promising trend.  As I’ve pointed out before, any time you have the list price and sold price lines moving closer together, you should see a slight spike in the list price in the next month.  Perhaps we are just testing the bottom of the market, but I look for this trend to continue.

We’ve seen these numbers represented in different graphs already, so I’ll spare my expert analysis, but my wish is that things will continue to creep back up and out of the hole that they’ve been in for so long.

This is a difficult chart for me to read now.  I used it for several months as a leading indicator of what preparations this market was making prior to arriving the cautious bottom making the upward moving that we’ve seen in the last 2 months, but I don’t know exactly how to look at it moving forward…  Hey at least I’m human and admit that which I do not know.  This one may have little commentary associated with it over the next couple of months as I figure out how to use it now.

There are definitely some major economic factors at play right now, so I am cautious about calling this a bottom, but I think we’ve lost all of the value that this market is willing to lose (I hope that makes sense).  I think we’ve reached something of a tipping point – something we’ve been waiting on for several months – and I think, by and large, we’ve reached a point of relative agreement between buyers and sellers – something you must have in order for a market to work.

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

We are back, and there is definitely some good news to report.  In short, the gains that were made in March were definitely built upon, and taken in combination, the last 2 months have had a fairly signifigant impact on the market.  Enough of my talk…  Let’s take a look at what the market has done, and, as usual, click on the chart to see the enlarged version (opens in a new window).

What can I say?  Inventory level is down; Active listings are down; New listings are down; Sales are up.  Each of these indicators represents the superlative in each category for the last 2 years, and though prices are still quite depressed, inventory levels are reaching balanced territory.

Again, we can see just how dramatic the volume of sold properties compared to the last 2 years of data, and we can see that, inversely, days on market are down slightly.

 Well, well, well…  Here we see some history being made.  We are actually seeing some market appreciation, albeit ever so slight, but it is appreciation nonetheless, and we’ll take it.

 Again we see the appreciation along with the decrease in days on market, or the time it takes to sell a property.

 This one is a bit difficult to read right now – next month will give us a little better opportunity to gauge this apparent dip in price reductions.  More on this one next month…

All in all, I couldn’t be more satisfied right now, or more tired.  I know, I know…  We would love to see the prices come up, but we’re in uncertain economic times, and we need to make sure that the recovery is sustainable in terms of what buyers can afford.  I’m just happy leveling-off for a change. 

Stay tuned to this space in the next month for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.

I wish I had more time to talk about them, because the information contained in these reports is pretty remarkable, but instead, I’ll just provide a link, let you read, and then digest…  If you have any questions or comments on the report, let me know; I would love to hear what you think. 

You can find the 1st Quarter Maricopa County Real Estate Report here, but if you are looking for anything and everything that is Phoenix real estate, please visit our website, and check out the real estate section, but don’t forget to check out our other sections as well.  Thanks again for stopping by.

If you wonder why I am so delinquent in posting the March numbers (or any other posts for that matter), it’s been because we’ve been BUSY!!!  You’ll understand just how busy when we get to the numbers, and if my schedule is any indication how the April numbers will look, I think you are going to see som interesting things – positive things – very soon.  Enough talk.  The charts (click the charts to see the full-sized image – opens in a new window).

The first chart shows that, though there have been more new listings added in the last month than any of the previous 4 months, sales are up above anywhere they’ve been in over 2 years and inventory is down dramatcally for the third month in a row and down to the lowest point in over 2 years.

Again, we see the dramatic spike in sales, but we also are watching the increase in days on market.  I think some of this could be explained by the length of time it takes to take a short sale from contract to close of escrow.

This one is self explanatory.  Prices continue to fall, but we wonder how long that can last…

Again we see days on market on the rise and prices in a long decline.  We are hoping that the sales of the last couple of months can help to stabilize both of those trends.

Last we see that price changes on the average continue to trend toward the ‘less-drastic’, and I think that, if weighed against the actual drop in values over the last 2 years, these numbers are pretty remarkable.

What can we say?  The same trends have been moving in the same direction for several months, and I’ve basically been saying the same things for all of those months, but I think that we are, in some respects, at a tipping point where people are shrugging off much of the bad news that they’ve been bombarded with over the last year and a half because they know that, historically, there aren’t often buying opportunities like this.

Stay tuned to this space in the next couple of weeks when the April numbers roll out, and for the latest in Phoenix real estate, but feel free to check out our real estate resources section of our website – we update it frequently.  Thanks again, and let me know what you think.