LXRX – June 19 – June 26 – 25%

MOTR – June 15^th June 20 – 29%

HOV – June 14^th – June 19 – 26%

PSUN – As of right now we are about even with yesterday’s close.  We have been chopping in the $1.59-$1.61 range all day.  It is very similar to yesterday and then we closed 5 cents higher in the last hour.

HOV – We are up 4 cents and had it up to $2.80.  I still think that this one has ran its course and we should see it coming down.

LXRX – It has been in the $1.90-1.92 range all day.  It is still right at the resistance and if we can break it we can see $2.00 soon.

YMI – We are currently down $0.07 on this one today.  I would be looking for it to be testing support around $1.87 if it gets down to there then we could see it hit support and bounce up.  If it breaks through the support it will not be looking good.

MOTR – We just came down off $0.65 and it looks like there is good support at $0.62 right now.  I would be looking at this one ending the day higher.

On the economic calendar for Tuesday is the Housing Start at 8:30am.  We also have the FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and goes into Wednesday.  The markets do react to what the Fed does say and the actions they take.

HOV – This has been having a good run but I feel the play was when I got in at $2.20 to now at $2.65.  That is a 20% gain in less than a week.  I would be carefully looking at this stock and be looking for it to come back down before I would get back in this stock.  It has shown up on my bearish scanner today as well.  Today was the day it moved up over $0.20 to the high at $2.77.  This stock is getting into the overbought status which would mean a sell off is likely to occur and the profit is there for those who were in down below $2.20 and I would expect them to start taking some profits here.  Depending on the Housing Start report this one could come down from that as well.

PSUN – I traded this stock today down at $1.52 (the support level) which was $0.02 of the low of the day. It ended the day with a nice run up at the closing bell up to $1.60.  I am loving the 53% short on this stock and 12 days to cover.  If this it gets up to $1.70 range (18 day moving average), I would expect to see a short squeeze there.  The support is at $1.52 and there is resistance at $1.63 and $1.68.

MOTR – This one has been still trading sideways.  I have this one still on my watch for a potential 10% gain coming soon.  I would be keying the $0.58 support as a good entry point.  The resistance is up $0.64 and $0.66.  I am liking the short squeeze potential but we need some upward momentum to get this one going.

LXRX – I am liking this one off of $1.90.  Currently we are sitting $0.09 of the 52 week high.  I would be targeting $2.10 if I could get it at $1.90 for my 10% gain.  There is resistance at $1.95 and $1.97 and there is support at $1.88.  There has been a good bullish move with the stock and it is showing up on my scanner as the number bullish move right now.  There is only 6% short on the stock so I would not expect a short squeeze play.  The biomedical sector has been rocking it in June so far and it was still looking strong today.

YMI – This stock made a $0.03 move today and we had a nice candle.  If this one puts out another candle tomorrow that would be the sign to get in.  I always look for candle over candle and then the 3rd day is the moving day on it.  You have to pay attention on the second day because you can get in before the big moves come.  1.50% doesn’t get much attention but get another 3% the next day you are nearly already at 5% and then the 5-10% move comes and you are there at your 10-15%.  I would be keying the support at $1.97 if we are staying above that support we will be looking good.  The resistance is at $2.07 and $2.10.  My target on this one is $2.37.  If you can get in at $2.00 then get out at $2.30 that is 15% gain and that is great.

Remember don’t get greedy and take your profits when you have them.  This has been my number one lesson I have learned over the first 3 months of trading.  If you have your 5-10% be happy and take the winner.  I have had some nice winners turn into losers when I was getting too greedy.

Any commentary on stocks is strictly my own opinion and ideas. Just know that I may be trading the stocks above and any commentary would be a conflict of interest. These trades also may affect the price of the stock, so please do your own due diligence when trading and take any commentary that I make at as my own opinion, so please trade them at your own risk.

Feeling a bit silly again. Hard not to during earnings season, right?

I was just thinking – why do people seem to complain about the cost of healthcare. There’s rarely extra money for useful things like like prescription drugs, hospitals, health insurance premiums and the like, but there is always room for daily $4 coffees and $300 iPhones…without the service plan.

We wake up, grab our coffee at Dunkin’ Donuts, because “America Runs on Dunkin,” turn on our Macs/iPads because we like to believe we “Think Different,” and open a browser to the NY Times, where “All the News That’s Fit to Print” lives.

Why not get development stage biotech companies with cool platforms into the game and introduce folks to the the next greatest cure-all?

Let’s take a quick look through two platform companies that used a slogan to show how cool they were/are. I’m sure there are more, but these are the ones I remember.

Lexicon Genetics ($LXRX) spent hundreds of millions of dollars to develop transgenic mouse knock-out models as a way to identify drugable pathways. Once they found some cool targets, they initiated their 10TO10 program back in January 2007, and confidently announced that “With two investigational new drugs already in clinical trials and two more INDs to be filed this year, we believe we are well on our way to achieving our goal of ten drug candidates in human clinical trials by 2010.”

At that point, everything looked good, with two assets in Phase I: LX6171 for treating cognitive impairment, as found in disease such as Alzheimer’s, schizophrenia or vascular dementia, and LX1031, that was being developed for irritable bowel syndrome and other gastrointestinal disorders. They had also promised that in the second half of 2007, they would be filing IND applications for LX2931 for rheumatoid arthritis and LX1032 for gastrointestinal disorders.

When 2008 rolled around they had indeed make good on the four programs highlighted, leaving them with six assets to get into the clinics by 2010.  Sounds do-able, get 3 INDs approved in 2008 and in 2009, and goal achieved!

How did they fare in 2008? Not so hot as their 4Q08 press release revealed:

“In 2008, the company made significant progress in moving multiple drug development programs forward,” said Dr. Arthur T. Sands, president and chief executive officer of Lexicon.  “As part of our focus on the development of our pipeline, we streamlined operations and concentrated our resources on our most promising programs.  We look forward to reporting data from several of our programs as they progress through clinical trials this year for irritable bowel syndrome, carcinoid syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes.”

Of course they still managed to spend $100 MM in 2008 as part of their streamlining process. Not too hot. Their 10TO10 program lasted one entire year. Today, they are still developing a handful of compounds and spending close to $100 MM annually.

Drats. That experiment failed. It must have been due solely on those bad banks, right?

Let’s go beyond the crash of 2008 and look at Infinity Pharmaceuticals ($INFI)? They announced their I4 2012 (“Eye for 2012”) objectives in January 2009, also with confidence as they entered the new year:

“Begins 2009 With Four Years of Capital, Three Clinical Candidates  in Development, Two New INDs, and One Pivotal Trial” – sounds like a great way to kick off 2009, especially after a pretty brutal 4Q08.

Here are the I4 2012 claims:

“The four major strategic achievements that will distinguish Infinity by 2012:

* At least one marketed oncology product, commercialized by Infinity in the U.S.
* Three oncology product candidates in global pivotal trials
* Five or more product candidates in clinical development
* A strong financial profile and exceptional value-creation”

Just a couple of months later, in their 1Q09 press release, there was no additional mention of I4 2012 initiative. Bummer. Of course, having a Phase 3 program terminated doesn’t help one’s cause.

As we approach the end of 2011, where does $INFI stand?

* At least one marketed oncology product, commercialized by Infinity in the U.S. → NOPE
* Three oncology product candidates in global pivotal trials → NOPE
* Five or more product candidates in clinical development  → NOPE
* A strong financial profile and exceptional value-creation → Give them credit here for their partnerships and R&D based funding

Oops, strike two.

There is no sure thing in  science, and publicly-traded biotech companies are even more at risk. Maybe it is not such a good thing to advertise for success.

I’ve got my fingers crossed for Alnylam’s ($ALNY) 5×15 program, which promises that “By 2015, the company expects to have five RNAi therapeutic programs in advanced clinical development…with ALN-TTR (for the treatment of transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis (ATTR), for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia, and for the treatment of refractory anemia…”

Looks like they are off to a good start.

Maybe we’ll get one right, finally. Maybe.

Now, back to learning about drugs that can benefit mankind and the companies that develop them.

Someone needs to walk through $AVEO’s cash burn to me. They reported $236MM cash 1Q11, and have guided at least $125MM cash by YE11. This means that they are on track to spend $111MM over the next 9-mo! Further, the cash on hand at year end is expected to take them through 2012, so they will spend another $125MM in 2012. Where is the cash going?

The biggest clinical expense this year is for TIVO-1 in P3 RCC, which is already more than halfway through to completion and is partly paid for by their partner, Astellas. I don’t recall the exact numbers, but If I am pretty generous (and why not, May is here, and we are one month closer to summer and BBQ season) and assume that the all-in cost per patient in an oncology trial is $50K/patient/trial, then for 500-pts, we are talking $25MM total. With data is expected later this year, I would guess that much of the trial costs have already been incurred.

So, what about their first internally developed asset, ficlatuzumab? Well, there appear to be two P1/P2 trials enrolling a little over 200 pts, so that can’t be it. They also spent $10M to purchase ficlatuzmab inventory from $MRK, they returned rights back to $AVEO last September, so mAb manufacturing/supply shouldn’t be the source of significant spend.

For the sake of discussion, let’s go wild and crazy, and pretend they spend an additional $25MM for TIVO-1/tivozanib development and another $25MM for progressing additional clinical programs, $10MM for research, and throw in $20MM for G&A (they spent $15MM in 2010), that still gets me to only to $80MM. These are pretty robust numbers, and I still can’t reach $100MM…for a single year.

One area I could be grossly underestimating is in research. Specifically, I wonder how much it costs to maintain a vivarium to house their nifty mouse models. If $LXRX taught us anything, it was that generating and housing all those mice could result in significant overhead costs for our furry little friends – maybe that’s where the burn heats up?

In any case, the PIPE investors back in October must see understand/something and it can’t be simply tivozanib in RCC (my crude assumptions/guess gets me to US $200-400MM peak sales – subject to revision and not supported by any primary research), otherwise, they would not have kicked in $61M for ficlatuzumab, would they?

To be fair, I think tivozanib has a pretty good chance for success in RCC and can be better than sorafenib with a better side effect profile (hypertension), and potentially sunitinib, though there won’t be any head-to-head data.

I’d just like to know how they spend so much capital so that I can better understand where future opportunities may lie.

No position

We have included the moves as they have been seen in late-morning trading as well the news and a link to more data on each were applicable if these were more broad stories.

Abraxis BioScience, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABII) is scoring a win in the war against lung cancer.  Its ABRAXANE showed high promise in combination with existing treatments for lung cancer in key Phase III  studies.  In late-morning trade, Abraxis is up over 28% at $21.18 and it hit a high of $54.03 today.  We have already seen 5-times normal volume.

StemCells Inc. (NASDAQ: STEM) is up on news of a rat model patent award in the UK.  This is apparently a novel stem cell patent despite the animal model.  Shares are up 2.5% at $1.24 and we have already seen almost 2 million shares trade versus a 2.1 million share average day.

Xenoport, Inc. (NASDAQ: XNPT) is up 4.5% at $9.57 on no real news seen.  Xenoport is the one that was clocked last month after failing to win FDA support of its restless leg syndrome and after half of its workforce was forced into national employee morale day for layoffs.  Still, if news is out we haven’t seen it today.

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: LXRX) took a beating of almost 10% to close at $1.28 yesterday due to its large securities offering.  Shares have recouped over 2% of that today and the stock is at $1.31 on already 150% of normal trading volume.

Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: MIPI) is down considerably this morning after noting a ‘going concern’ note just yesterday.  Shares are down over 17% at $1.38 on the day.

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: ELY) is large enough that this might be nothing more than a PR blunder.  Still, thieves stole as much as $75 million worth of the company’s drugs from a Connecticut warehouse over the weekend.  During or after the weekend storms in the Northeast, thieves disabled a burglar alarm in the building and left with dozens of pallets loaded with the antidepressants Prozac and Cymbalta, as well as the anti-psychotic Zyprexa and other prescriptions.  They must be happy thieves, or at least no longer care.  With a $40 billion market cap and with Thomson Reuters having 2010 sales estimates of almost $23.3 billion, shares are basically flat at $36.20.

And there are a couple of analyst calls impacting shares as well.  GTX Inc. (NASDAQ: GTXI) is down 2.6% at $3.34 this morning. Rodman & Renshaw decided today was a good day to downgrade the stock to “Underperform” from Market Perform.”  Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) is down 1.75% at $66.13 on more than a whole day’s volume after Citigroup cut the company to a “Sell” rating down from a “Buy” rating it previously had.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAZZ) is up strong on two issues. TheStreet.com via Real Money ‘bought shares’ and the company is presenting data at an upcoming Barclays conference.

JON C. OGG

As of last night, the week’s offerings were literally a floodgate of secondary offerings. It is almost worrisome when you see this many shares being sold. We have included the appropriate color where applicable, as well as applicable price reactions, comparisons to market cap, the underwriting team on each, and more. The most difficult notion to fathom here is that these are just the decent-sized offerings to large offering from companies which did more than just an automatic shelf registrations. SIXTEEN deals here alone….

Cousins Properties Incorporated (NYSE: CUZ) filed on Tuesday to sell up to $500 million in any combination of Common or Preferred Stock, Warrants, Debt and/or Depositary Shares. The stock held up fine with only a 6.3% drop to $7.85 on Tuesday versus a 52-week range of $5.97 to $10.95. No underwriters were named for the REIT’s securities sale for ‘general corporate purposes’ and the market cap as of Tuesday was $783 million.

Dice Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DHX) registered to sell up to $50 million in common stock for holders, although the prospectus noted common and preferred stock. It also said that any proceeds to the company would be for for ‘general corporate purposes,’ which was inclusive of debt repayment, working capital and/or capital expenditures. Dice shares were down 1.1% to $7.61 n Tuesday and the market cap was about $475 million.

Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) received approval to pay back its TARP obligations. After earnings last night the credit card issuer said it would be selling $350 million in subordinated debt to repay the TARP. Shares were down 1.5% at $15.07 on early look but that is after earnings and may be only a lesser event in the grand scheme of things.

Entertainment Properties Trust (NYSE: EPR) listed almost 6.3 million shares for sale for a value of close to $250 million in common shares. The difference here is that the offering is said to be dividend reinvestment component and a direct share purchase component shares, so these may actually not be sold… ” 8,500,000 common shares to be offered for purchase under the Plan, including 2,202,093 common shares that were previously registered but not sold.”

Finisar Corp. (NASDAQ: FNSR) filed on Monday to sell 7.2 million shares of common stock. Tuesday brought about a drop down 3.4% to $14.30 on above-average share volume. This one is after a significant recovery because its 52-week trading range is $2.56 to $14.90 and its new market cap was $931 million as of Tuesday’s close. Morgan Stanley and Jefferies & Company are joint book-running managers; Piper Jaffray and Morgan Keegan are co-managers.

First Potomac Realty Trust (NYSE: FPO) priced an underwritten registered public offering of 5,500,000 common shares at $14.50 per share, with all of the shares offered by the company. Net proceeds are expected to be approximately $75.9 million to be used for general corporate purposes and to pay down debt. KeyBanc Capital Markets and Wells Fargo Securities were joint book-running managers; BMO Capital Markets and Raymond James are co-lead managers. First Potomac closed down 3.75% at $15.15 on Tuesday after the filing had been made, but that was before the deal priced last night. The 52-week trading range is $6.67 to $16.07 and the market cap is $466 million.

Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL) filed recently to sell 6M common units and it fell 5.5% to $20.45 Tuesday after the offering of 6.25 million shares priced at $20.50 per unit. The company noted that “common units owned by Denbury Onshore, LLC and Denbury Gathering & Marketing, Inc., each an affiliate of Denbury Resources Inc., and James E. Davison, one of the directors of our general partner, and two other members of the Davison family.” Wells Fargo, BofA Merrill Lynch, UBS, and also RBC Capital Markets were joint book-runners; Deutsche Bank and Morgan Keegan were co-managers.

Genpact Ltd. (NYSE: G) fell 6.7% to $14.91 after the company registered to sell 28 million shares of common stock for selling shareholders. Those holders include General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) affiliates, as well as General Atlantic and Oak Hill Capital Partners. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are lead book-running managers; Citigroup, UBS Securities, and Credit Suisse are joint book-running managers; JPMorgan Securities and Wells Fargo are co-lead managers.

Global Partners LP (NYSE: GLP) took a 5.5% hit to $22.68 after the company sold 3.4 million common units to reduce debt. The deal priced at $22.75 per common unit and Barclays Capital and BofA Merrill Lynch were joint book-running managers. Credit Suisse and RBC Capital Markets were the co-managers. This had been a $25 stock as recently as Friday morning and its listed dividend yield is 7.9%.

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) took a hit last night after announcing the sale of $3.05 billion in securities to help the company repay its $3.4 billion US Government TARP obligations. Unless changes were made, this is $1.45 billion in common stock and $500 million in convertible preferred stock, with approximately $1.1 billion in bonds. Shares were off 1.6% at $26.82 on last look.

Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: IRDM) filed last night what looked to be only 130.437 founder warrants where proceeds would be going to the company. But in the filing there is also listed a 38,628,390 share count for sale. We will stay tuned here before using the larger number as gospel.

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: LXRX) took a beating of almost 10% to close at $1.28. The company priced a public offering and private placement of its common stock to total approximately $165 million; public shares were 87,717,391 shares of common stock at $1.15 per share. Lexicon agreed to sell an additional 59,296,749 shares of common stock at the public offering price to Invus, L.P., its largest stockholder, in a private placement upon Invus’ exercise of its right to purchase shares sufficient to maintain its pro rata ownership of Lexicon’s common stock. Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan were joint book-runners; Cowen & Co. and Thomas Weisel Partners were co-managers.

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) filed on Tuesday to sell up to $150,000,000 in any combination of Common or Preferred Stock, Warrants, and/or Units for clinical development, R&D, expansion, and general corporate purposes. No underwriters were named.

Oriental Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: OFG) filed originally to sell up to $50 million worth of common stock. However, on Tuesday morning the company announced that announced today that it priced an underwritten public secondary offering of 7,600,000 shares of common stock at $11.40 per share to raise about $86.6 million. This was sold by KBW and by the Bank itself.

Satcon Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: SATC) filed on Monday to sell up to $50 million in Common or Preferred Stock, as well as Warrants, Purchase Contracts, Depositary Shares, Debt Securities, and/or Units. This compares to a $163 million market cap for the provider of utility grade power conversion solutions and services for commercial and utility scale renewable energy installations and distributed energy markets. At $2.33, the 52-week range is $1.22 to $2.93.

TTM Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTMI) registered 10,101,000 for roughly $93 million for selling holders. None of the proceeds go to the company from the selling holders. Underwriter names not seen. Its market cap is $396 million and its $9.19 share price compares to a 52-week trading range of $4.60 to $12.52.

Secondary offerings are not an absolute sign that the market has peaked. But when you see waves and waves of selling like this, it can’ go unnoticed that perhaps the share sales are uncoordinated thoughts by management in many sectors that they better raise capital while the window is open.

In the ‘new normal’ it seems that expectations still involve guesswork and uncertainty. Even for those with clarity, the reminders of hard times are still fresh in mind.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals told investors how well things were going for the company on February 23. The firm bragged about its advances in treatments for type 2 diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, and carcinoid syndrome. It was a good day for Lexicon investors. Then, today the firm said it would sell $95 million worth of stock without announcing the offering price. As might be anticipated, the shares were pounded. Lexicon trades at $1.62 today, down from a 52-week high of $3.78, so some fortunate investors have lost half of their money.

Poniard Pharmaceuticals had terrible earnings and indicated that the company should have enough money to make it until the end of this year. It is not clear what will happen then. Maybe Poniard will close. The firm works on treatments for prostate and colorectal cancer. In the fourth quarter of last year, Poniard lost $13.2 million and had no revenue. For the entire year, the loss was $46.2 million. Poniard had $46 million in cash on December 31. The company’s situation is not hopeless, but investors fled the stock pushing it down to $1.62 from a 52-week high of $9.14, so some shareholders have lost 80% of their money over the last year.

The two companies have burned investors badly enough so that it will be nearly impossible for them to recovery any market confidence.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) is holding up better than many might guess considering how much it has run up. This is after light earnings.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX) is fairly close to 52-week highs after signing three partnerships for Peramivir for influenza outside the U.S.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is down but only marginally on reports of a ‘possible’ stake sale by The U.S. Government.

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: (DNDN) is giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains on merger rumors.

ING Group (NYSE: ING) will be an active ADR today after the EU may block a settlement.

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: LXRX) is surging as a top bio-winner after moving to Phase 2 clinical trial of LX4211 in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is soaring to highs not seen since July on yet another upgrade.

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week for top day trader alerts, top analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG
September 15, 2009

The initial stage of the trial will assess the bioavailability of a new oral-suspension formulation in healthy elderly subjects with a second stage evaluating safety, tolerability and cognitive effects in elderly subjects with age-associated memory impairment.

This was issued ahead of its R&D webcast at Noon EST today.  Shares have not traded in pre-market trading and closed at $3.20 yesterday; its 52-week trading range is $2.80 to $4.40.

Jon C. Ogg
December 5, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Jon C. Ogg
June 18, 2007