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  Coleção com 34 fotos para apaixonados por carros. Mavericks, passado, presente e futuro. Maravilhosos.

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I didn’t realize there were early college football games on today otherwise I would have done this earlier and made some bets.  Unfortunately I was stuck at work.

I was going to play Rutgers -3 and Cincinnati -20.5, but the games started before I had a chance.  Other games that were playable include: Colorado State -3, Kent State +4, Tulsa -14.5, and Bowling Green -7. I got my Nebraska -10 pick in, but didn’t get to post here in time

 Here are my other picks:

Pittsburgh 0 (vs WVU)

Boise State -9.5 (buy 4pts) (vs Nevada)

The Boise spread opened at -10 which would may have been fine but now it’s up to -13.5 which is too close for comfort. Nevada is a good team with a strong offense. They are on an 8-0 run after losing their first 3 and have score more than 50 points in 5 of those 8 and more than 30 in all of them. Last year Nevada only lost by 7. I may just steer clear of this game, especially since my NCAAF system is so new and untested.

NBA:

DEN -12.5 (vs NY)

PHI +12.5 (buy 7) (vs ATL)

DAL +2.5 (buy 4) (vs IND)

I’ll play Denver straight, but the other two games I’ll have to work into a teaser if I want anything out of them.  I’d do PHI, DAL, and any other team I mentioned in the last post in a 7pt teaser if I were to play them.

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At the 10:53 mark of the 3^rd quarter from yesterday, November the 25^th, Dallas Maverick’s win over the Houston Rockets, Jason Kidd passed to Rodrigue Beaubois for an alley-oop. That pass meant more than just two points, more than one assist for Kidd because with that dime, his 5^th of the game at the time, he passed Mark Jackson for 2^nd all time in assists with 10,335.

On a day where we saw one star get pushed out of the league because of his inability to adapt, Kidd once again stands his name in the history by reinventing himself. He is not the triple-double machine he once was but by being able to understand that time passes, Kidd extended his NBA career and remains helpful on the highest level.

Check More At: MVN

To celebrate the Holidays I am going to post a free winning pick for every day of the week starting on Thanksgiving and going all the way to Sunday. I will also post some great sportsbook bonus so you can take advantage of some of the best in the business! Take time out to be thankful for everything in life and remember the troops that can’t be home on Thanksgiving.

Want all of my top rated plays for this week for free? Just sign up and play at any sponsor and you get them all for free! Email me at mregaw@yahoo.com for the plays!

Happy Thanksgiving to Everyone!

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Free Pick for Thursday November 26th, Turkey day!

Texas @ Texas A& M

Texas has already clinched the Big 12 South and will play Nebraska in the

Happy Holidays!

Championship game but they can’t afford to get caught napping here. This will be no problem for Texas as they are focused on going to the Championship game after the loss last year that put them out. Texas A&M has flopped in six of nine as dogs of 20 points or more and in 10 of 12 ATS off a home win. The Longhorns have scored at least 41 points in their four previous road games this season. They are 23-12-2 ATS in November and get a blowout win here.

Play: Texas -21

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Free Pick for Friday November 27th

Alabama @ Auburn

Auburn enters this game with revenge after getting blanked last year. Alabama is going to the SEC Championship game against Florida so this game is a warm up. The Tigers have covered seven of 11 against Alabama and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five showdowns. The Crimson Tide dropped nine of 13 ATS when giving up more than 11 points on the highway. Auburn will not win but they will keep it close.

Play: Auburn +10

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Free Pick for Saturday November 28th

Arkansas @ LSU

The loss for LSU was a tough one that will linger over to this week. Arkansas has pulled off the upset against LSU the last two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-6 as road dogs and the visitor is 6-3 in the past nine meetings. The Tigers are 2-14 as SEC home favorites and they have floundered in 27 of 34 ATS at Baton Rouge in November. Arkansas knows hwo to beat LSU and will do it again.

Play: Arkansas +3.5

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Free Pick For Sunday November 29th

Indianapolis @ Houston
Houston will be playing on a short week and they have to get Chris Brown in the right mindset for this game. Houston has cashed eight straight as home dogs and won six of those eight SU, the only two losses at the hands of the Colts by a total of four points. The Colts have struggled within the division, dropping 14 of 21 ATS, while the Texans are 6-2 at Reliant Stadium versus AFC-South citizens. Indianapolis has won six of seven at Houston, but failed in five of seven ATS. Houston finally gets the win against the Colts.

Play: Houston +3

“Put a unique spin on this, throw it out there so it can grow legs, get some traction and go viral.  I want a footprint!”

I woke in a cold sweat.

Words and phrases that should be killed are sprouting faster than zombies in a George A.Romero film.   They’re more persistent than sallow vampires in the twilight.  I can’t stop thinking about them though some say I’m anal (props to Freud for that evergreen).  Others have likened our kind to being word police, but I consider us mavericks.  No, wait.  The paunchy maverick slid back to the Senate  and unleashed The Rogue.

Yikes!  I step back from that since the first definition of “rogue” in dictionary.com is “a dishonest, knavish person; a scoundrel.”  Hmm.  Well, I guess it’s safe to call yourself a rogue if you know your audience never uses a dictionary.

Actually, I’m just a guy who loves the language, respects the creative use of it and dislikes lazy use of language, especially among “educated” professionals.  I’m just giving you a heads-up that.

Really, I’m being totally transparent.

The phrase making the sales rep rounds is “reaching out.”  Several, from different parts of the country have used that on me, always beginning, “Dennis, I’d like to reach out and see how our company can help you.”

Well, friend, it’s like this:  if I’m drowning, I really want you to reach out and help me.  However, if your goal is to fill inventory, get the manager off your back and boost your commission, a simple media kit will do.  If it looks like your station is a good fit, I’ll reach out to you.

And then you know what we’ll do?  We’ll have a conversation!

Actually I’ve heard this in higher ed more than in the media.  It usually begins with a problem (masked as “a challenge”) between two people or parties who disagree (have “different goals”) and the path to a solution is to have one of these conversations.  Conversation implies civility which means you can’t raise your voice or even let your face get red from rising blood pressure.

“Conversations” are bland, mishmashes of buzzwords that suffocate our ancient instincts to reach out and kill the opponent.

Hey,  I’m just sayin’. . . .

****

( I’ve had a lot of feedback from readers.  I’m thinking of setting up a separate page with all three posts and everyone’s contributions.  So please send me the words and phrases that drive you nuts.)

Note:  Thanks to the guys over at Target x  who picked up on our shared love of language and continued the, umm, conversation.

#1 – Atlanta Hawks

The best team of the NBA so far. Josh Smith has been superb in the first 14 games. He has been the horse they have been riding. The Hawks had a weird loss to the Hornets Friday but that’s Ok on the road and on a second of back-to-backs.

#2 – Cleveland Cavaliers

Without Shaq, the team plays better. He just doesn’t fit there and with him out for a while now, they were able to give minutes to JJ Hickson who could be the solution for their problems, certainly not offensively but maybe defensively.

#3 – Phoenix Suns

The Suns remain red hot. 2^nd best record of the league so far, even with the loss to the Hornets on Thursday which shouldn’t be a shock because every time that the Suns are dominated on the boards, they lose, and it’s a lock just like that.

#4 – Los Angeles Lakers

Gasol is back and that means the Lakers should make their push to the league’s best record now. With the Spanish Center there, they are just so tough to beat, they are big and physical.

#5 – Orlando Magic

With Rashard Lewis back, they become a matchup nightmare again. The win against the Celtics highlighted that. Vince Carter is coming alive, against Boston he scored 26, turned the ball over a lot but took the game over in the end and that what you expect from your superstar and the reason why Orlando traded for him.

#6 – Denver Nuggets

Carmelo Anthony has been terrific so far and put himself in the MVP race however they are still not on the same level as last season. Their defense has been OK but when Billups doesn’t play well, all of a sudden nobody else but Carmelo produces.

#7 – Dallas Mavericks

Nowitzki has been carrying them because the bunch of injuries already started, Marion and Howard haven’t played together for a decent amount of time, and it’s not close to end.

#8 – Boston Celtics

On back-to-backs they look old. The loss against the Magic can be faced as a problem but when healthy, they are still the best team in the NBA. The question is: for how long will they remain healthy?

#9 – Milwaukee Bucks

The Jenningsmania is all over the NBA, even in this Power Rankings.

#10 – Portland Trail Blazers

Travis Outlaw is out with the same injury that held Webster for the entire season last year and that’s a hit on their second unit. The 3 men backcourt has survived so far but maybe is time to trade Miller.

#11 – Miami Heat

As Wade goes, they go which means that so far, they are a playoff team.

#12 – Houston Rockets

Even I’m convinced that this team needs somebody who can create his own shots on clutch moments. That guy is neither Ariza nor Brooks. Hopefully McGrady won’t screw the good vibe around the team.

#13 – Oklahoma City Thunder

When those four guys score, they are tough to hold. Lately even when they lose, they are on the game until the end. As the season progresses, they progress and the Western Conference should watch out.

#14 – Utah Jazz

With Williams back and Boozer stepping up, the Jazz won all three games this week including one against the Spurs which was their first in San Antonio in 20 games.

#15 – Toronto Raptors

They won 42% of their games. With all the money spent in this team and with playoff expectations around them, they have to perform better.

#16 – San Antonio Spurs

Ginobili and Parker out this week, injuries caught with them like expected. They always start slow, so no worry there.

#17 – Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose has struggled a lot and that’s a real problem. This is a team that has a lot of variations and formations but it’s only 8 deep.

#18 – Indiana Pacers

They are who we thought they were: a .500 team.

#19 – Detroit Pistons

With Hamilton and Prince out, they have been able to hang in there but the problems are the same, lack of size inside and no rebounders, and when they face decent competition, that’s a problem.

#20 – Sacramento Kings

They are 5-7. Can you believe that?! The Kings won 41.7% of their games and that’s crazy. Tyreke Evans and Omir Caspi have been big so far.

#21 – Los Angeles Clippers

Yes, they have been a disappointment but when Gordon and Griffin return, they should be better. The push to the playoffs is yet to come but Kaman has played the best basketball of his career and Baron Davis is finally finding himself on that offense. Their second unit is amazing.

#22 – New Orleans Hornets

Without Chris Paul and with the new coach, they played well this week. Rookies getting more playing time and when Stojakovic shows up to play, they are not that bad. It’s tough to see them over .500 though.

#23 – Philadelphia 76ers

They are the ones to open a playoff spot on the East. They face problems on offense and defense. With Brand there, they haven’t been as committed to Iguodala on offense which they should if they want to save the season.

#24 – Golden State Warriors

Jackson is gone and the Warriors got cap relief instead. They’ll play shorthanded for the rest of the season but Don Nelson likes it this way. Nelson who, by the way, is 23 wins away from his record which means he’s 23 wins away from retirement what could mean that next season, maybe the Warriors will be OK.

#25 – Charlotte Bobcats

Probably the dumbest team in the NBA. The franchise is for sale but yet they took on Jackson’s awful contract in a move that won’t make them better than those teams they are fighting.

#26 – Memphis Grizzlies

Iverson is now gone for good. It’s time for them to translate talent into wins.

#27 – Washington Wizards

They have been the most disappointing team so far.

#28 – New York Knicks

Apparently they refused going after Allen Iverson, which would at least entertain us, because of Eddie Curry and Toney Douglas. I have no words for that.

#29 – Minnesota Timberwolves

They miss Kevin Love but as expected they would be bad anyway.

#30 – New Jersey Nets

They have been banged up but nothing justifies that awful start. Douglas Roberts is back, so is Harris, which means the offense should be better but the 0-17 start looks real.

Check More At: MVN

Power Rankings III: http://basketballoutsider.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/power-rankings-iii/

Older than your last car and still going strong

Bucketfull of Brains, that is.

The new issue is out! My reviews include the new efforts from Cheap Trick, Ian Hunter, Cracker and Muck and the Mires. No features from me this time, but check out these gems from my mates:

• Lucky Soul: ‘It sounds like the Supremes, but inside out. Surely you understand that?!’ Interview by Terry Hermon
• John Wesley Harding: Then, now, and whenever. Wesley Stace speaks to Nick West
• ‘I never travel far without a little Big Star’ Simon Wright hears the box set, sees the band in Hyde Park, and converses with John Fry, Jody Stephens and Alex Chilton.
• ‘We oppose all rock’n’roll’. Phil King hears from Rob Symmons of Subway Sect and Fallen Leaves about 1976, how the Sect formed, and the 100 Club Festival (with unseen pics of the Sex Pistols).
• Mavericks In Maturity. Jeremy Gluck talks to Peter Holsapple about working with Chris Stamey again

All that plus a ton of news and reviews and some great pictures. So head on over to the Bucketfull of Brains site, nab a subscription (or try a single issue) and enjoy the wonder of a great print magazine – music’s endangered species!

Name your game in college football!

I have all of the games in college football covered.  Do you want to get research, insight, and picks on all the game but you don’t have time? I am here to help.

Send me the game you want covered and I will give you a pick on the game with a detailed write-up on why!

If it is a big game like Ohio St vs Michigan or Oregon Vs Arizona I have you covered.

If the game is a low key game without all the fanfare but you want information and a winning pick I can do that too! Not everyone will cover SMU and Marsahall but if you want the pick and the game written up and the stats and the trends to go along with it, I will cover all of them.

This is all you have to do. Sign up with a sponsor at this site and bet and deposit! Play with one of the top rated sportsbooks in the world and get all of your picks for free! Put your money on the game and get the picks for free! Click any banner and sign up now, then email mregaw@yahoo.com and get your pick!

Here is an example of one of the free picks for tomorrow.

Free College Football Sports Betting Pick for Saturday November 20th

TCU Vs Wyoming

TCU showed the world last week that they deserve the top ranking they have. They jumped to #4 in the country and with that came an inflated line. TCU has struggled a bit on the road in November (4-9-1 ATS). Wyoming is 13-5 ATS off a SU win and 5-1 ATS at home with revenge off a straight up and ATS win. Letdown is a real possibility with this inflated line.

Play: Wyoming +31.5

15 Team Teasers and parlays!!

This week Sarah Palin’s books hit the market and talk about a fanfare! Whether you love her or hate her (and there are few who are in the middle) you have to admit she makes us all take a deep breath and ponder what does success means today.

On the one hand, she has a following in conservative groups because she says what they’re thinking and stands up to the “liberal media and liberal agenda”.  Political movers and shakers in the Republican Party are all aghast that she just won’t go away quietly.  And her book, which sounds like a tell all on the makings of a presidential candidate, is causing a firestorm of conversations.

So what are the lessons on success we can learn when you step out of the emotionalism surrounding her? Who really defines what is successful – the public, leaders in an organization or the person? After years of research we know success is defined by the individual.  So…What are the possibilities for Mrs. Palin’s future job success?

a)      Everyone is asking, “Is she preparing to mount a bid to be the 2012 Presidential candidate for the Republican Party”.  Since Mrs. Palin went “rouge” it is clear that she has bigger aspirations than to be the governor of Alaska, a mother, a wife and a moose hunter.  Being President is just one goal but there are a lot of others for her to consider.

b)      There are people who think she’s looking at a possible talk show, movie deal or news commentary position in her future or

c)       Of course she could be looking to form a “Mavericks R Us or Going Rouge” coalition with people who believe she’s just right on a number of issues that no one wants to talk about. Issues like, Levi Johnston is simply being used and selling tantalizing photos of his body is wrong, government spending that leads to high deficits is wrong, expecting politicians to go to Washington for the right reasons, and not just to mingle with the right people.

The truth is no one knows how she defines or measures success but she has all the hallmarks of one who will be successful.

1)      Passion- no matter what you think of her politics Sarah Palin is passionate about stirring the pot and influencing politics. She has consistently demonstrated excitement, drive and stick-to-it-ness in spite of popular opinion.  All the signs of someone who’s passionately believes in their purpose and competence.

2)      Purpose – We may not know for sure what she believes is her purpose but one thing is clear she does believe that our political system needs a shake up and she’s the woman to do the shaking.

3)      Decisive – The Republican Party (and for that matter every other party) is split and non-functional. Before you jump down my throat just take a look at the last mid-term elections. In spite of record turnouts for the Presidential elections voters were disenchanted and simply not engaged with the November elections.  The spirited debates, the call to action and the interest in the candidates was missing in action folks. That’s an opportunity for someone who can electrify the populist.  And she sees the opportunity and is willing to go after it.

4)      A Plan – We may not know it but it looks like she knows where she’s going and is flexible enough to capitalize on whatever comes her way.

5)      Lastly, her execution appears efficient and (at least for right now) effective. Time will tell whether she’s good at execution. However one thing is for sure. The final judgment on how well she executes is determined by Sarah Palin not us. Only she can say whether, in the end, she achieved her goals. Just look at Al Gore. One door closed for him and he opened another and today by his own admission is happy, following his passion and making money doing it.

Hmmm?!? Given what we know about success, I’d say this lady has what it takes.

Great College Football Free Sports Betting Picks

This week is full of great college football picks! I have eight great selections between now and Saturday and have all of the great games covered for free! Thursday’s game is Free but I have another winner on Friday and 6 great winning picks for Saturday! The best part is all of the picks are free! All you have to do is click on a banner and sign up at a sponsor! It’s free and when you sign up you get all of my picks for free. After you sign-up email me at mregaw@yahoo.com and I will email you all of the picks for free. All picks come with a great writeup to include trends and stats that support my selection in the game! Click a banner and sign up with the top rated sportsbooks to bet on college football!

Thursday Night Free Pick: Colorado is trying to end a season that has been one of the worst seasons in a long time. The straight up winner has prevailed by double-digits in 14 of the past 17 meetings between these Big 12 rivals. The Cowboys have cashed 11 of 14 as favorites and at a 14-5-1 clip at home versus conference competition. They are also 10-5-2 ATS in their last 17 finales at Pickens Stadium. The Buffaloes are 4-13 as dogs with revenge. This game is a blowout and Oklahoma ST cruises and wins by 30 points!
Play: Oklahoma St -18

Smoking kills millions of people every year and yet the medical community seems pathologically opposed to any measure to tackle the issue other than through the promotion of total abstinence.  Carl Phillips suggests in his paper in the Harm Reduction Journal this month that smoking for just one month is more dangerous than switching to a smokeless nicotine product for a lifetime.

Take a moment to take a deep drag on a few breathtaking statistics.

Across the world approximately 1.3 billion people use tobacco products and by 2030 it is estimated that 10 million people will die annually from smoking-related diseases and 70% of these deaths will be in developing countries. We’ve known about the harmful effects of smoking for over 50 years and yet over that same period 6 million Britons have died of tobacco-related disease.

It’s no secret that it’s hard to stop smoking. Bandolier published an interesting little analysis of trials which included smokers and heroin addicts. They asked: which is the most addictive? In a rather elegant twist they looked at the cessation rates in the placebo arms of all the relevant trials. Cessation rates for smokers were around 8-9% yet for opiates users were around 43%. No surprises there – smoking is extraordinarily difficult to stop. Even in those that are highly motivated 12 month cessation rates are often no better than 10%. Opposing a harm reduction approach might be doing a grave disservice to those that just find it too tough to stop.

I am intrigued by the concept of tobacco harm reduction – not least because it requires a considerable effort of will to put aside a pathological distrust of Big Tobacco. Some of this post is taken from one I posted over at doc2doc a few months ago. The very first comment on the blogpost at doc2doc sums up the gut reaction of many doctors:

I think we should dismiss this out of hand! This argument is like low tar cigarettes are healthier..so you can smoke more of them. There is no such things as a safe(r) cigarette. The safer cigarette makes no sense given my understanding of how nicotine receptors work, not to say addiction. Do not trust Big Tobacco who have a vested interest in not losing their customers.

End of. Decision made. One suspects that the notion of smokeless nicotine products is simply not endorsable by the scientific orthodoxy in any shape or form. Phillips addresses all the arguments and using a back of a fag packet (though he prefers an envelope) calculation suggests that:

Whatever the explanation for it, the present analysis shows that anti-THR [tobacco harm reduction] activism is deadly. Hiding THR from smokers, waiting for them to decide to quite entirely or waiting for a new anti-smoking magic bullet, causes the deaths of more smokers every month than a lifetime using low-risk nicotine products ever could.

If you are inclined to read the paper then flick to the back first and read the competing interests statement. Not for our Carl a bland ‘nothing to declare’ and instead it reads like a heartfelt plea that we pause, ignore the gut reaction and consider the evidence. It also speaks volumes for the ignominious role of mavericks in the scientific world; they may occasionally be lauded as heroes but more often they will be squeezed out of funding, shunned at the peer-review review stage and ostracised by their own community.

Within the wider medical community tobacco harm reduction remains an exercise in thinking the unthinkable. Doctors recommending it may be vilified and it opens up a researcher to accusations of acting as an industry patsy; labelled as a dull-eyed lackey in the pay of malignant giants. Yet it could save millions of lives and it certainly merits wider debate.

Phillips, C. (2009). Debunking the claim that abstinence is usually healthier for smokers than switching to a low-risk alternative, and other observations about anti-tobacco-harm-reduction arguments Harm Reduction Journal, 6 (1) DOI: 10.1186/1477-7517-6-29

These are very quick picks but I only picked them because I was confident in them, otherwise I’d leave them blank. Enjoy.

CHA V PHI; PHI -3, o-182

What the 76ers lack in defense, they gain in FG%, at least against the Bobcats (46% versus 40%). I still have some hope for the 76ers. This game should help put them back on the right track.

NY V IND; IND – 6.5, u-214

Indiana Pacers continue their streak at home against a struggling Knicks team.

OKC V ORL; OKC +12, o-189.5

Oklahoma City knows how to beat the Magic. They’ve done it before.  Only this time, the Magic will be prepared (or at least should be).  Orlando wins but not without a fight from the Thunder.

CLE V WAS; WAS +4, o-196.5

I normally don’t look at historical data but this is a different case. The Cavs have lost 19 of 23 road games against Washington since ‘96, including 9 loses in 11 games since drafting LeBron, and none in the past 2 years (0-4). On top of that, Cleveland is missing three of their best players (Shaq, Moon, and Varajeo) and Arenas is back for the Wizards.

MIA V ATL; ATL- 7.5, o-192.5

This normally could be a good game but the Hawks are hot and the Heat is not. Miami is struggling to find a rhythm and if they couldn’t find it at home against the Thunder, they won’t find it in Atlanta against the Hawks.

HOU V MIN; HOU -6; o-200

Houston had the victory in their game against the Suns well within reach but let it slip away.  They’ll be looking for revenge against a struggling Timberwolves team as they put the hurt on them early just as they tried with the Suns.  Only Minnesota isn’t a good enough team to come back.

TOR V UTH; TOR +8.5, o-215

The Raptors are a good team but they’ve unfortunately been playing some very good teams lately. Utah also has potential and looked good against the 76ers and the Cavs but they’ve also had some close calls that shouldn’t have been so close and lost games they should’ve won. Utah has the advantage here of more rest but Toronto should be able to hang in there.  Put this one at the bottom of your list though as the jury is not yet unanimous.

DET V POR;  DET+ 11, o-178

Remember what I said in my last post? Detroit can play against a good team if that team doesn’t have a Kobe.  Replace Kobe’s 40 points from their last game with even just 30 points and you have Detroit losing by 3.  Portland has a Roy, but he’s still no Kobe. Detroit will lose by 6-8.

GS V BOS, GS +16.5, o-209.5

Warrior defense will be no match for the unstoppable Celtics scorers, but they are a good enough shooting team to not lose by 16.

NJ V MIL, MIL -10, o-187.5

New Jersey streak continues.

LAC V MEM, LAC +5.5, u-199

Clippers win.

SA V DAL; DAL -1.5, o-196.5

Dallas is hot and is seeking revenge from their most recent loss to San Antonio.

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#1 – Atlanta Hawks

#2 – Phoenix Suns

#3 – Denver Nuggets

#4 – Houston Rockets

#5 – Boston Celtics

#6 – Cleveland Cavaliers

#7 – Los Angeles Lakers

#8 – Portland Trail Blazers

#9 – Orlando Magic

#10 – Dallas Mavericks

#11 – Miami Heat

#12 – Milwaukee Bucks

#13 – Chicago Bulls

#14 – Oklahoma City Thunder

#15 – San Antonio Spurs

#16 – Toronto Raptors

#17 – Detroit Pistons

#18 – Utah Jazz

#19 – Indiana Pacers

#20 – Sacramento Kings

#21 – Philadelphia 76ers

#22 – Los Angeles Clippers

#23 – Charlotte Bobcats

#24 – Washington Wizards

#25 – Golden State Warriors

#26 – Memphis Grizzlies

#27 – New Orleans Hornets

#28 – New Jersey Nets

#29 – Minnesota Timberwolves

#30 – New York Knicks

Check More At: MVN

Power Rankings II: http://basketballoutsider.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/power-rankings-ii/

In 1961, three surfers decided to ride the distant waves north of Half Moon Bay. Along for the adventure, was a German Shepherd named Maverick. This dog would usually swim out with the surfers, but since this wave was so far out they thought it would be safer to tie him to the car bumper. After several attempts at riding the tail end of the break, they decided the conditions were to dangerous for surfing. They named the wave after the dog, because he was the only who seemed to have fun that day.

This one was for sure a heart breaker for the Bucks. The Mavs just looked like a better team from the get-go. Gooden had his way with Bogut , Barea was money from the three, and Dirk was Dirk. The Mavs held a steady lead, and got a good run going in the last few minutes before half. After half, they came out firing. They had an eighteen point lead at one point in time, but the Bucks hung in there. Skiles made a genius move by doing a complete substitution, bringing out everybody that was currently on the floor. Ilyasova, along with his defense on Dirk the whole game, created the only true offensive spark for most of the game. The Bucks kept it very close at the end, and eventually got it into overtime. During the extra quarter, it was close throughout. Once again though, Gooden managed to maneuver his way around a couple of dumbfounded Bucks for an easy tip-in off of a Dirk miss. Tied at 113, BJ has his chance to be a hero and for whatever reason decides to shoot a three and he misses. With three seconds left I thought to myself “keep it out of Dirk’s hands”, but Kidd feeds him and he shoots over Mbah A Moute and gets the friendly roll at the buzzer. Ouch…

A few questions:

Where was Bogut the whole game?

Why did BJ take so many ill-advised threes?

Will Ilyasova start in the future in place of Warrick?

Why was Ilyasova not guarding Dirk on the last shot even after he played great D on him throughout the game?

Why was LRMAM guarding Dirk on the last shot even after he did not play great D on him throughout the game?

Some things to look at:

BJ shot 63% from the line, and the team as a whole shot only 64% (Dallas shot 77%)

BJ was the teams second leading rebounder, behind Ilyasova (Show yourself Bogut!)

Drew Gooden scored 65% of his TOTAL points for the year and grabbed 54% of his TOTAL rebounds for the year in tonight’s game

I can’t say I am all too upset about this loss. We let them get ahead, but managed to send it into overtime after overcoming an eighteen point deficit. As for the last shot, I am glad it was Dirk that sunk it. I am and always have been a fan of Dirk. He has one of the most clean and unblockable jumpshots in the history of the league. Congrats Dirk and congrats Dallas on the win tonight.

Big Monday Night Football Game!

The Ravens play the Browns on Monday Night!

It was another great NFL Sunday as I nailed my NFC Game of the Year with a big win with the Panthers over the Falcons. Now I am back with another winner in tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Ravens and the Browns. I am a documented 61% in the NFL this year and tonight will be another winner in the NFL. Don’t miss this game tonight!

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Tonight’s Free Pick:

Portland Blazers +3.5

The Blazers can get revenge for an earlier meeting they lost at home to the Hawks. The Haws have been very surprising and have played very well beating some of the elite teams in the league. The Blazers will be ready and have proven to be road warriors this year on the road. The Blazers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

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EDIT 11/16/2009 12:09 PM MST: This post has been updated to reflect odds on the CHA-ORL game.

We have two very good matchups tonight that should make for a very interesting sports night if you get bored watching the Browns and Ravens.

POR vs ATL; ATL -4, o-189.5

This a just a great matchup: a 5-1 road team versus a 4-0 home team. Portland has won 6 straight while Atlanta has won 4 (including a victory over Boston). The #3 ranked offense (ATL) versus the #1 ranked defense. When I look at strength of schedule I would say the Hawks have beaten more superior teams. In fact the last team the Trail Blazers played was Atlanta, which happens to be their most recent loss as well.  Portland is a good team, but their numbers may just be inflated a bit due to the weak teams they’ve been able to run over.  Atlanta has proven itself worthy.

DAL vs MIL; MIL +1.5, o-190

Yet another great matchup as a 4-2 road team faces a 4-0 home team. One interesting stat, however, is Dallas is 0-8-1 ATS against the Bucks in Milwaukee in it’s last 9 matchups. Looking at point totals is not a good way to go because it doesn’t tell you who will control the game.  What you must look at is rebounds. I wish I had some numbers on who wins the game versus who out-rebounds (I’m sure that’s out there somewhere), but I suspect the majority of the time the team that wins rebounds will win the game.  More important still, I believe, is the ability to get offensive rebounds. You can just figure that on a good shooting day a team will make it 50% of the time or so. That means they will miss 50% but if your team can rebound better and get the ball back, you are still in control of the pace.

CHA vs ORL, ORL -13, o-180

No odds up on this one yet but Orlando shouldn’t have a problem winning this one. The Bobcats are 0-4 on the road and the Magic are 4-1 at home.  In the series matchup, Orlando is 7-1 at home in the last 8 matchups. Although this game actually goes against my offensive rebounding theory as Charlotte averages 4 offensive rebounds more than the Magic, the Bobcats are shooting 39% from the field, versus Orlando’s 46%. If the spread is Orlando -11 or less I’ll take the Magic.  5 of their last 6 matchups in Orlando have been under.

EDIT: I just noticed the odds put out on this game. I originally said -11 or less for the Magic but that wasn’t a set line I drew.  That was just what I was most confident in. Now that I see -13, it makes me a little more nervous but with the return of Lewis and Anderson and the fact that they’ve already beaten the Bobcats in Charlotte without Lewis and Anderson by 12, I think -13 will be possible.  The two returners are itching to go and will be more than willing to run up the score if they can. And I’m going against the  what historical stats tell me and say the total score will be over. Orlando 108, Charlotte 84.

To view my picks for Sunday’s NFL matchups, click here.  To see my in depth report on the New England-Indianapolis game, click here. Check back later today for my Monday Night Football in depth analysis. I apologize for not making this an in-depth review of yesterday but let’s just say I’m not feeling awesome this morning.

So yesterday was not my best day against the spread.  While I was 11-1 SU, I finished a mere 7-5 ATS. So many games were either too close or not close enough.  I overestimated the strength and capacity of Stanford, Maryland and Utah. I gotta say, though, I’m proud of my call on Florida and South Carolina.  The Bulls missed beating the spread by 1 point! I can’t believe the Celtics dropped another one.

I learned a valuable rule yesterday, however: Never make your picks in a hurry.  I was spending the entire day out yesterday so I wouldn’t have time to do my picks later so I rushed through them in the morning and tried a stab at my intuitive anaylsis. Unfortunately it was not acceptable in my standards, but now I know I am not psychic.

The other lesson that was drilled into my head once again was trusted all of my picks.  I do the analysis on all the games but only select a few to bet on.  And for how good I am at picking outcomes, I’m not so good at picking which games I am most confident in.  I was 7-5 ATS yesterday, and 3-5 in the games I bet on. That means (obviously) I left 4 winners on the table and no losing games. I’ll get it eventually.

Now for today’s NBA picks:

DAL V DET; DAL -4.5, o-186.5

With Detroit still missing Prince and Hamilton, they will not be able to power over the Mavericks.  The Pistons have won three in a row shorthanded but those teams were the Wizards, Bobcats, and 76ers. After barely beating Washington last night, Detroit is starting to feel the fatigue of playing without two of their key players.  They have done a great job overcoming their loss but it won’t be enough against Dallas.

LAC V OKC; OKC -5.5, o-182

It truly pains me to say this but Oklahoma City is starting to look like a legitimate NBA team.  Owners of a winning record, they have beaten the Kings, Pistons, Magic, and Spurs.  They’ve already beaten he Clippers in Los Angeles, and they shouldn’t have problems beating the struggling team in Oklahoma. The Thunder are undoubtedly starting to fatigue but if they just push through this game, they basically have a 4 day rest as they travel to Florida and get thrashed by Miami and the Magic. I’d tell them to save their energy in those games (at least against the Heat, and save up for Orlando, whom they’ve already beaten).  Even if they win tonight and lose both those games, they’ll be 50% and have a good shot of winning 3 of their next 5.

TOR V PHO; PHO -7.5, u-229.5

The Suns are hot at home and they haven’t played since Thursday when the Lakers had their way with them.  If the “Bright Side of the Sun” blogger is correct, Phoenix really didn’t play that hard in LA, meaning it’s been since Wednesday since they actually played hard.

HOU V LAL; LAL -9, o-202.5

For some reason I keep thinking Houston is a really good team.  That really isn’t a jab at them, I’m just saying they have the makings of a great team but haven’t been able to put it together fully.  They only lost by 1 in OT to the Lakers in Houston, but they also have gotten destroyed by Dallas and they just lost to the Kings.  Looking at the Lakers’ home record this year should speak for itself.  But throw on top of that the Lakers’ games since their 1 point squeaker in Houston: beat a 1-4 Memphis team, beat a 2-4 New Orleans team, beat a Phoenix team that wasn’t trying, and didn’t try against Denver.  Basically I’m saying they have been able to rest (relatively speaking) since Nov 4th.  The Lakers know how good they are at home, and with 11 of their next 12 games at home, they know they need to capitalize on every game at home they can. It’s a lot easier to win by a lot, which is why the Lakers will look to get up on top by a lot in the 2nd and 3rd quarter and just hold it through the fourth.

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Saturday Free College Football Pick

Saturday November 14th: Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh

The Irish lost to Navy for the second time in as many years at home and the hot seat is getting really warm for Charlie Weiss. He needs to win all remaining games or be out as head coach. When you start to count out the Irish is when they start to play well. The Irish have won and covered nine of 12 against the Panthers and came away with upsets in their last two visits. Take the Irish and the points.
Play: Notre Dame +7

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Mavericks is a world-famous surfing location just north of Half Moon Bay. The waves can routinely crest at over 25 feet and top out at over 50 feet, especially during the winter months. The break is caused by an unusual triangular-shaped underwater rock formation.

During the winter some of the world’s best big wave surfers come to attempt riding the waves at Mavericks. Only a select few are willing to risk the hazardous conditions – besides the danger posed by the force of the wave itself and the hazardous rocks nearby, the area is also frequented by many great white sharks.

Great Record in the NBA

Yesterday I had another great night in the NBA! This year I am on fire in the NBA and am out of the gates with some more award winning picks. I am documented as the current top ranked units earned handicapper in the NBA. I am consistently in the top ten every week and know the NBA inside and out and the best part is all of my NBA picks are free! Tonight I have the NBA covered and all of the big games are on my slate.

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Free NBA Pick for Veterans Day

Denver @ Milwaukee

Latest Line: Denver +3.5

Free NBA SPorts Betting Pick: Bucks +3.5