Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is still unloading more Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) stock.  A filing from last night shows that another 87,992 shares were sold at a weighted average price of $26.77 on December 18, 2009.  This is a fraction of what has been sold before and was a mere $2.35 million worth of stock, and Buffett still holds some 31,814,610 shares of the independent ratings agency.

But Buffett is continuing to pare down his position here in Moody’s.  This appears to be the third stock sale of Moody’s this month.  Buffett is still more than a 13% beneficial owner, but we have shown on several occasions how Moody’s is likely being punted 100% by Berkshire Hathaway.

This company is no longer in the same position that it was when Buffett decided to go into it.  Even with a forever time frame, when fundamentals and the future of a company permanently change it is time to review a position.  Buffett is about two-years too late in this action.

JON C. OGG

Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) downgraded the government debt of Greece from A1 to A2. Very few economists or bankers will be surprised. Greece is dealing with a shrinking economy and growing national debt and budget deficits. It problems are no different than most other nations, including the US. The economies of more economically sound countries are not being affected by concerns of credit agencies, at least not yet.

The Greece debt problem is a canary in a coal mine for countries such as the UK, where pubic debt is growing at an alarming rate. A powerful recovery in the global economy may save the British government from a dwindling faith in its ability to cover its debt service. A surge in GDP growth should increase employment and lift the nation’s tax base. The same assumptions hold true for the US economy although debt as a portion of GDP is America in not nearly as high as it is in the UK.

Almost every economic forecast in nations with growing debt is based on signficant improvements in both consumer spending and business revenue. That will allow government to tax their way out of deficits and decrease their national debt loads. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts for the next decade are based on based on these assumptions. The national debt continues to grow for years, even with an improvement in receipts to the IRS.

Bankers will be worried about sovereign debt downgrades and defaults in 2010 and 2011. A second recession or slowing in the rate of the recovery will put some bank balance sheets at risk. And, countries like Greece are going to find it extremely difficult to raise money at all, which simply adds to the problems of moving themselves out of harm’s way.

Douglas A. McIntyre

MarketWatch:   Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) downgraded Greece’s debt to A2 from A1 and said it had a negative outlook on the nation’s sovereign paper.

Reuters:   The FBI is probing a cyber attack on Citigroup (NYSE:C).

Reuters:   China is asking the WTO to rule on US duties on tires.

Reuters:   The US mortgage industry will have trouble with new disclosure rules.

Reuters:   A Chinese mining company backed out of a deal to buy a part of a US mining company when the US government objected.

Reuters:   Banks with political ties got bailouts according to a new study.

Reuters:   The US pay czar will allow incentives for some AIG (NYSE:AIG) executives.

Reuters:   GM named Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) CFO as head of finance at the big car company.

WSJ:   A breach of Citi security by hackers, perhaps from Russia, caused the theft of millions of dollars.

WSJ:   Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may offer online TV subscriptions. Disney (NYSE:DIS) and CBS (NYSE:CBS) are in talks with Apple.

WSJ:   Stores are hoping last-minute shopping will make up for the weekend on which weather hurt sales.

WSJ:   Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) will shut down for a week to save money.

WSJ:   Redefault rates are hurting programs to help people with mortgage problems.

WSJ:   E*Trade (NASDAQ:EFTC) appointed a new CEO.

WSJ:   Altera named a new CFO from Sun Microsystems.

WSJ:   Alcoa (NYSE:AA) has joined a huge Saudi metals project.

WSJ:   Xerox (NYSE:XRX) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) are making money on corporate printing outsourcing.

WSJ:   GM will start to run assembly lines around the clock.

WSJ:   Honda (NYSE:HMC) will expand in China.

WSJ:   China Telecom will offer the RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) Blackberry.

WSJ:   R&D spending in the US is rebounding.

WSJ:   Dubai World started talks to restructure debt.

WSJ:   OPEC will probably keep oil prices steady.

NYT:   A business is growing to manage better returns from search ads on Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).

NYT:   The founder of Galleon pled not guilty to fraud charges.

FT:   Collapsed Lehman paid out bonuses.

FT:   China is moving to improve capital ratios at banks.

FT:   Bankers fear what many happen to some sovereign debt in 2010.

Bloomberg:   Sands China may have revenue of $5 billion.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Technically speaking, it isn’t 2010 yet but we’re almost there and I thought I would make a start at our new (fantastic) M&Co. blog!

Basically, M&Co. have been churning out fabulous fashion deals for year and years and years and it is now my job to let you all hear about them. Believe me, there are some you will not want to miss.

So before Christmas comes around once more and then we all start making New Years resolutions  that we know we won’t be able to keep, let me tell you what the lovely folk at M&Co. have been up to.

First off, our new menswear range is attracting a lot of interest. Sandstone is a luxury but affordable new collection that will turn any average Joe into Daniel Craig in no time! If you thought M&Co. was just for the girls, think again!

Our collections are constantly being updated and the best way to keep up with it all is through our website www.mandco.com. Also, you should follow us on facebook for exclusive deals and offers. http://www.facebook.com/business/dashboard/#/pages/MCo/125530496369

Happy browsing!

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Walt Disney Co. expects to offer fewer discounts at U.S. theme parks in 2010 as the economy improves, according to Chief Executive Officer Robert Iger.

The world’s biggest theme-park operator has already reduced discounts from a year ago, Iger said today at a UBS AG investor conference in New York. Disney added promotions in November 2008 to attract visitors during the credit crunch.

“We will be able to continue to dial that back over the latter part of 2010,” Iger said, referring to discounts on hotel rooms, food and merchandise. “We are not making these commitments yet until we see the marketplace conditions.”

After previous recessions, Disney has scaled back the promotions, Iger said. Since last year, the company has offered free hotel nights and discounts on food and merchandise. The parks unit has reported four straight quarters of lower revenue and profit compared with year-ago periods.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andy Fixmer in Los Angeles at afixmer@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 9, 2009 17:08 EST

Still looking for that perfect holiday present?  A Disney family vacation will leave a lasting impression with wonderful memories for all!

Thanks for reading and as always, Have a Magical Day!

Michelle

Continental Airlines Boeing 757-33N N57869 (msn 32593) MCO, originally uploaded by Airliners Gallery.

Continental Airlines (Houston) is planning to add the Gogo inflight Internet system to its 21 Boeing 757-300s.

Press release:

finance.yahoo.com/news/Continental-Airlines-to-Offer-prnews-2944459848.html?x=0&.v=1

Copyright Photo: Bruce Drum.

It wasn’t that long ago that we gave a list of stocks that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) needed to dump to help pay for its Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) acquisition.  Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) was one of those stocks.  He had already lightened up some since, and on Monday evening came a filing at the SEC confirming that Buffett was dumping more stock.

The filing was 3 groups of stock coming to a total of 3,454,791 share sold.  That leaves Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway with 31,902,602 shares.  We doubt he’ll be out of this position entirely by the end of the year, but the writing has been on the wall here for two years that the ratings agency game and dominance is over.

The weighted average sales price here was north of $26.00, and Moody’s common stock has a 52-week trading range of $15.57 to $31.79.  This was a $60 and $70 stock as recently as mid-2007 when the cracks in the ratings agency model were already coming front and center.  Buffett has finally capitulated on this one.

Jon C. Ogg

Berkshire Hathaway still holds about 35.4 million, or about 15 percent, of Moody’s shares following the transaction, assuming 236.5 million shares outstanding as of Sept. 30. -Link

I am currently working in a callcenter with a very decent salary. The job’s a bit challenging but so far so good for me. I’m pretty much stable here. But just in case the whole callcenter industry experiences a recession, I’ve prepared several plan B’s.

As I get older, I do a lot business ventures because I hope to do well financially in the future(I guess everyone does). A big portion of my salary goes to my business funds. And I’ve used those funds in starting small businesses. Give me a million dollars and I’ll invest all of it for business. I’ve started a small computer rental shop which was managed by my cousin. Unfortunately, it didn’t do well by reason of “location”, so I had to move my computers to my friend’s computer rental shop. It’s earning better now and having it close to where I live gets me great perks(flashing, nerdy anime glasses). I’ve also tried small time(and small interest yielding) lending on my previous and current companies but didn’t do well because some clients didn’t pay me back. It was my fault though. I was too positive about people paying me back to have noticed that some(maybe most) people in the world are just too plain evil(bitter). I’ve tried a dozen sorts of business ventures, and did good on most of them.

I just loving making money, or the thought of me making money. It gives me a sense of security. At least, I know I’m doing something for my future. When I was a kid, I had my own little peryahan and the kids in the hood were my customers, hahaha! All throughout elementary, high school and college I always had sidelines. I did homeworks and projects for money, operated a photocopy machine, became a “pulot boy” at the tennis court near my Uncle’s place where I used to live, a runner, etc, etc. I treasure all the hardships I’ve been through and those memories never failed to give me the strength to move on in life.

A few months ago, my previous team leader approached me and offered me a business venture. He said the capital was very minimum and I would be able to control the time and money I earn so I was very doubtful. And then he said it, “Direct Selling”. OMG, am I to sell Avon too?! Hey, I love making money but selling panties and make-up? What would my friends say. HAHAHA! He was offering “Milk and Co”, he said it was a new brand and that the company just started recently so it wouldn’t be difficult selling it to my friends. And he was right, everyone is either with Avon or Natasha now, hahaha! He said membership was only Php200 and I could start right away. I’d earn rebates, incentives and discounts. Offer was good. But the market, I’m not really sure. So I took the deal, gave him the money for registration(wasn’t really much anyway, hehehe!).

A few days later, he gave me the catalog, I was working that time so I put it aside immediately. Few minutes later, a co-worker saw the catalog and asked if she could take a look at it(WOOT?!). I said “Sure, maybe you’d order something you like”. And a few minutes later, she did. That day, I got orders worth Php11,000 in total! I get a straight out 22% discount on my purchases so I’ll prolly earn around Php2,000+ with kind of order! That really blew my mind! Hahaha! I tried offering it to my friends and orders just keep on coming! The callcenter market isn’t bad at all. Well, it has never failed me in my previous ventures except for the loaning business. It wasn’t sooner that I got an offer to sell “Sophie”. Another direct selling company which offers a slightly better profiteering system than the first. This one was a goldmine! I was earning like Php15,000/month! And I still am! I’m so lucky I tried this one out!

Although I am doing well with my current ventures, I don’t plan to stop looking for more business oppurtunities. I promised I won’t stop until I earn Php100,000/month. Who knows, I may not even stop at Php100,000. My friends often tease me about selling stuff like these, but I know who gets the last laugh, hehehe! Manning up doesn’t mean giving up a very good business venture. Its about doing everything you can on every challenge you get. So be a man and earn good money! In fact, be a manly, man man! Hahaha!

Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) made comments about its ratings on US and UK sovereign debt that were meant to calm the markets. Early in the week the credit agency said that one or both countries could lose their “Triple A” ratings if the increase in their national debts began to tax their abilities to raise money in the global capital markets at reasonable interest rates.

The new Moody’s view is that, “The rise in debt and higher interest costs could test the ratings under some scenarios, but not right away.”

Simply stated, the US could face a downgrade of its rating if national deficits grow and the Treasury has to become more aggressive in its efforts to raise money to fund the American debt. It is easy to see how that might happen.

The economic recovery looks like it will continue in the early part of 2010, but then it begins to hit “headwinds.” The first of these is that unemployment will stay high. The federal government will need to spend money on jobs programs. At the same time, the consumer tax base will continue to erode as more people lose wages for longer periods of time. The number of jobs available for each out-of-work person is still falling.

The global capital markets do not have an infinite capacity to finance debt. A number of sovereign nations will continue to borrow to fund their rising deficits. Countries like Dubai may have to go back  market to refinance debt that cannot be repaid under current circumstances. Increases in corporate borrowing driven by rising equities markets that improve stock values and make issuing debt easier also reduces the capacity of the global pool of money available to purchase debt.

The Moody’s theory about how the US could lose its “Triple A” rating becomes more worrisome by the day as the likelihood that the Treasury will have to increase borrowing rapidly becomes more likely.

Douglas A McIntyre

Reuters:   The pressure is on big oil companies such as Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and BP (NYSE:BP) to find inexpensive oil reserves in Iraq.

Reuters:   Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) sees no threat to the US debt rating for now.

Reuters:   Obama plans a TARP for small business.

Reuters:   Rental income in buildings for residential occupancy will remain weak.

Reuters:   The House is near passage of a bill to overhaul the US financial markets.

Reuters:   Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) top management will take bonuses in stock.

Reuters:   Ford’s (NYSE:F) CEO said he talked with GM’s new CEO Whitacre to discuss the industry.

Reuters:   The House passed a $447 billion spending bill.

Reuters:   The pay czar will make rulings on several other firms which have US money.

Reuters:   Citigroup (NYSE:C) plans an offering of $15 billion in stock.

Reuters:   Trading in AOL’s (NYSE:AOL) shares got off to a rough start.

WSJ:   The Boeing (NYSE:BA) Dreamliner is set for its first flight.

WSJ:   China’s curbs on sales of tech gear to its central government are drawing criticism.

WSJ:   Stores are holding bigger markdowns of prices in reserve for later in the holiday season.

WSJ:   Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is in talks with Bank of NY (NYSE:BK) CEO about moving to the top spot at BAC.

WSJ:   The Airbus A400M is ready to fly.

WSJ:   Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) are competing to buy or form relationships with startups.

WSJ:   Apple iPhone sales by China Unicom (NYSE:CHU) are picking up.

WSJ:   Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) is fighting the EU over its Sun Microsystems  (NASDAQ:JAVA) deal.

WSJ:   Citadel Broadcasting is about to file a prepackaged Chapter 11.

WSJ:   GE (NYSE:GE) won a big wind farm project.

WSJ:   US household net worth rose.

WSJ:   Some bone-building drugs known as bisphosphonates may prevent breast cancer.

WSJ:   Falling supplies of natural gas pushed prices up over 8%.

NYT:   A national sales tax may be considered to drop the deficit.

NYT:   Data from China show its economy is still rebounded quickly.

NYT:   Dealers for GM and Chrysler won a victory in the House as a bill advanced to let them appeal being closed.

NYT:   France will probably follow the UK on a banker bonus tax.

FT:   Facebook is being criticized for changes to it privacy rules.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Reuters:   Citigroup (NYSE:C) and the government are in a dispute over TARP re-payments

Reuters:   Japan release plans for an $81 billion stimulus package.

Reuters:   Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE:MS) new CEO will shuffle top management.

Reuters:   The US pay czar will exempt some AIG (NYSE:AIG) employees.

Reuters:   GM is in talks to sell part of Saab to China-based SAIC.

Reuters:   The labor market problems may be in their final phases.

Reuters:   Bernanke says the economy still faces “headwinds.”

WSJ:   Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are fighting with the US over conditions for TARP payments.

WSJ:   Lending is still tight according to the Fed.

WSJ:   The airline industry appears headed for a recovery.

WSJ:   Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) says the US and UK may show they can cut debt to keep “AAA” ratings.

WSJ:   FedEx (NYSE:FDX) lifted its outlook.

WSJ:   RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) set a distribution deal with China Mobile (NYSE:CHL)

WSJ:   Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) countered Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) with new search features.

WSJ:   GM and Ford (NYSE:F) will begin big competition in the small car market.

WSJ:   Seagate is expanding beyond the storage disk business.

WSJ:   Dubai World may sell assets.

WSJ:   The FTC will review Google’s deal to buy AdMob

WSJ:   German luxury car companies have strong sales in China.

WSJ:   The EPA said greenhouse gases are dangerous.

WSJ:   The advertising market in the US will be stable next year according to one forecaster.

WSJ:   News Corp (NYSE:NWS), Time Warner Inc (NYSE:TWX), and other publishers will form an alliance to create content for tablet PCs and e-readers.

WSJ:   S&P sees dividends increasing next year.

NYT:   An overhaul of major debt rating agencies is unlikely.

NYT:   A technology used to mine natural gas make cause pollution.

NYT:   GM will spend significantly on new models.

NYT:   State labor officials and the long-term unemployed are pushing Congress to extend benefits.

NYT:   NY Attorney General Cuomo is focusing his probe of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) on an executive who is a candidate for the CEO job.

NYT:   Universal, Sony (NYSE:SNE), and EMI will start a music video site.

NYT:   The FTC and other groups are far apart on rules for online privacy.

Bloomberg:   Obama says there is no silver bullet for job creation.

Douglas A. McIntyre

These are this Friday’s top ten analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls:

Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Raised to Buy at Collins Stewart.
Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE: MHP) Started as Buy at BofA Merrill Lynch.
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) Started as Buy at BofA Merrill Lynch.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT) Started as Overweight at JPMOrgan.
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

We recently discussed the changes that have taken place inside Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) as Warren Buffett has gone higher up the food chain.  In his more focused and more opaque approach, it also seems that after a $44 billion deal including debt to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) that Berkshire Hathaway needs to further make some changes.  Buffett has been talking on and off about a whale of a deal, and that is what we got with the BNSF buyout.  Berkshire Hathaway Inc. lists 51 different subsidiary links inside the Berkshire Hathaway umbrella that are wholly owned or dominantly owned subsidiaries.  There are also more than 40 public US-listed stock holdings in there, and that is before you get into his preferred shares, convertible debt instruments, and debt for deal financing in big public companies.

We have taken a review of the Full Buffett Holdings and come up with a geared down version of his holdings here.  Some of these ‘encouraged’ sales are because of fundamental changes, and some are merely because they are too small to be a benefit even if they tripled in price.  Some are also a follow-on for action he has already taken or already hinted at.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an obvious exit in the oil patch.  Buffett wants continued exposure to oil, and there are better ways to get exposure for Mr. Buffett.  He has investigated the Canadian oil sands projects, and he eventually buckled to pressure to sell Chinese oil stocks.  But Buffett targeted ConocoPhillips already all on his own for sale and said he would selectively sell as a tax offset even if it rises. It was also lowered in scope over the last quarter and the recent addition of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) was the right call he should have made in the first place.  Conoco is now at a $78 billion market cap, yet Buffett cam much more easily hide Exxon with almost an unlimited amount of funds as it has a market cap north of $359 billion and is the #1 position in the 24/7 Wall St. Real-Time 500.  Buffett could get his hands on almost $3 billion for the share sale at current levels.

Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE: GCI) is one we cannot figure out why he still has in the portfolio other than being ‘long and wrong.’  He has panned newspapers, and the rest of media is challenged still.  At 3.447 million shares, this is also worth a whopping $35 million today.  The notion that this used to be worth 5-times and 8-times more is largely irrelevant now.  The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) might actually be hard for Buffett to exit because volume is so light.  He might just be stuck with it, and its education business may offset the newspaper business.  But his 1.72 million share stake could raise $700 million today if it could be unlocked.

Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) is one that was undergoing a game-changing trend for two years before Buffett decided to start lightening up.  The business is no longer in the same right nor with the same future as it once had.  Buffett wants companies with a “forever timeline” and that is just not in the cards any longer.  Ask this… How does the future of Moody’s compare now to how it was running 5 years ago?  No matter how you cut it, Moody’s has a much less dominant role and one under much more regulation and under more public scrutiny.  We interpreted his recent comments that he’s probably exiting this one anyway…. $900 million is here.

Then there is the train and rail competition.  Buffett has already indicated the sale of competing interests in the rail arena.  That takes the 1.933 million shares of Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) and the 9.55 million shares of Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) off the table.  That was roughly $640 million at the last look.  But there is an interesting take here that has not been discussed.  If Buffett really wants to communicate the value of the rail transportation business, he could also dump his 1.429 million shares of United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS).  That stake is only worth $80 million today, and he could kill two birds with one stone: clean up a small sub-$100 million position and make the effort to further show that rail is the best transport sector to own.

On the healthcare front, Buffett has already decided to lighten up on his health insurance operators. UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE: UNH) was listed as 3.4 million shares, down from 4.5 million in the prior quarter.  Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) was listed as 3.394 million, down slightly from 3.5 million last quarter.  But that Wellpoint stake is also down from 4.7773 million shares in Q1.  Buffett might have been an Obama-backer, but he is lightening up in these health insurance stocks.  The only reason he might not be out entirely is either because of ‘hope’ or for goodwill in D.C.  He would raise about $280 million now by unloading these, and he’d surprisingly be able to do it at close to 52-week highs in these two.

GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK) and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) are technically not Buffett’s picks on his own.  It is unlikely that Buffett needs these as a source of funds.  And we do not anticipate a sale from Buffett here.  These could generate more than $200 million if they are exited.  Again, we do not expect these to be sold even though they do not fit in on the Buffett scale today.

Ingersoll-Rand Plc (NYSE: IR) is one that we think is one already on the way out and is probably already gone. He cut the stake way down, and this is worth about $23 million at today’s price.  This isn’t worth Buffett’s time, so we won’t make worth wasting our time nor your time with anything more.

SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE: STI) is just over 3 million shares, so almost $70 million today.  This may be sentimental or for posterity’s sake, and in all fairness is not one we are picking on.  But with a similarly small Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) stake, the stake size could be more easily grown in BofA if he chooses.  Buffett’s recently increased stake in Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) being worth close to $8 billion and the other banks and lenders already held make this seem to be an easy stock to relinquish.

There are two positions in public insurance holdings that either need to be added to or need to be elminated.  Frankly, Buffett has more than enough insurance exposure all the way through the private portfolio.  The Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) is in individual life and supplemental health insurance products and the 2.8 million share stake is worth just under $120 million today.  The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) was such a small stake that Buffett may have changed his mind or just got caught having his broker start buying in the last 15 minutes of the last day of the quarter.  This is literally a $1.3 million stake.  But it is now a DJIA component and I think Warren wants to show he wants to hold the better quality public stocks.  Our guess is that this will be a larger stake ahead.  If not, he just needs to sell it so that people covering Buffett can ignore it.

Will Buffett sell all these positions? No, of course not. He holds on to positions in many cases until long after they have stayed their welcome in the Buffett house.  But some he has started selling and many seem unlikely compared to the rest of his portfolio.  Many of these either do no longer fit in size nor in practice for his ‘forever’ model.  After tallying all these stakes up mentioned here, Buffett could also use $6 billion to use for funding that BNSF buyout or that he could use to buy what he has always wanted…. A utility.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 24, 2009

By Cara Sulieman

SUSAN Boyle has spoken about her meteoric rise to fame on the day that her album is released worldwide.

I Dreamed a Dream – the debut album from the 48-year-old – hits shops today (Mon) having already sold more pre-order copies than any other album on internet shopping website Amazon.

It is just another achievement for the spinster from Blackburn, West Lothian, who shot to fame after her appearance on Britain’s Got Talent in April.

And she has spoken for the first time about how it feels to get so much attention, and insists she is still “a wee wifey from Blackburn”.

“Beautiful”

Whilst staying at the five-star Peninsula Hotel in LA – where SuBo performed on Dancing with the Stars – it hit home how much life has changed for the star.

She said: “What a beautiful place it is. My pillow had the initial B embroidered on the pillow – little things like that made me realise how much my life has changed.”

And she went on to say that not winning the final of Britain’s Got Talent was a “relief”.

She said: “When it was revealed Diversity had won, there was actually a sense of relief.

“It was like an immense weight on my shoulders had suddenly been lifted. I was glad they won. They are a good bunch of lads and I wish them all the best.”

“Keep going”

It seems that although fame is a welcome surprise for the international star, she will always remain grounded.

Susan said: “Who would have thought the wee wifey from Blackburn would have achieved so much in just 11 months?

“It’s taught not to give up and to keep going no matter what your difficulties are.”

The star showed that she is still down to earth when she jumped on a bus to go shopping in her favourite shop M&Co in Bathgate last week.

Smiling and posing for pictures with fans, she popped in to buy a longline cardigan and two pairs of trousers from the budget shop.

See more of our pictures at our Flickr site and videos at our dedicated channel,  Deadline TV.

By Andrea McCallum

SINGING sensation Susan Boyle today (fri) prepared for the launch of what is expected to be her multi-million selling debut album launch on Monday – by going shopping in Bathgate.

And showing the celebrity status hasn’t gone to her head she even travelled the short distance from Blackburn by bus, stopping off at her favourite store to buy a new outfit before her appearance on this weekend’s X-Factor.

Casually dressed in a rain coat and black trousers, and sporting her signature Burberry scarf and a splash of red lipstick, SuBo showed no sign of nerves as she wandered along the West Lothian town.

The star walked confidently from her house past the local primary school before being called over by a friend outside the newsagents.

The blonde bespeckled woman, in her 50s, shouted across the street to SuBo before walking over to have a chat.

Laughing and smiling, the pair talked for a couple of minutes before Susan said goodbye and continued on her way to the village’s Mill Centre.

Walking confidently, she said she was “busy” and couldn’t stop for a chat.

But she had time to mention her upcoming trip to London and the States, suggesting that as famous as she is, she still gets excited about her new lifestyle.

Moving on to Blackburn’s main strip, the singer popped into the Mill Centre.

Home to just a few small shops and the local library, Susan found a way to pass the time as she wiled away an hour inside.

On her way out, she was approached by an elderly woman who gave her a big hug.

Ruffling the star’s hair, the OAP looked as though she was teasing the singer before she rushed across the road to catch the bus.

She flagged down the 11.49am number 557 bus to Bathgate outside the Mill Centre.

Mobbed

Squeezing into the busy small single decker vehicle run by local company E&M Horsburgh, she made her way into town for her shopping spree.

Alighting in the town centre, the international celebrity sauntered around the streets, stopping at the bank on her way to her favourite shop.

Those stopping her in Bathgate were more fans than friends, and she graciously smiled and said hello.

During the hour she spent in local department store M&Co, more fans gathered outside, taking snaps of the singer on their mobiles as they waited for her to come out.

Eventually, the star emerged from the shop clutching a bulging bag of purchases.

According to staff, she had bought a longline cardigan and a couple of pairs of trousers.

The bus Susan jumped on

Janice Hendry, the shop manager, said: “She’s been a customer with us for years so it was no surprise to see her coming in. She was quite funny when she was in, laughing and joking with the staff.

“A few people were asking her for autographs and she was great with them, posing for photos and everything.

“Other than that she is treated as a normal customer.

“I said to her today ‘why are you still shopping in M&Co now you’re famous?’ and she said to me ‘nothing wrong with that’.

“We wish her well with everything in the future; her album is already a hit. It’s quite phenomenal.”

Smiling to those waiting, she started to walk down the street when the two most determined admirers called out to her.

Susan ambled back to the builders in fluorescent vests and posed with them as they took photos on their mobiles.

After a five minute chat, she wandered off smiling at passers by.

I Dreamed a Dream

She had been splashing the cash ahead of her album’s debut on Monday, but with sales from the expected sales of the CD, she will soon be able to visit any designer emporium she wants.

Amazon reported earlier this week that the album had already sold more copies than any other pre-order.

And bookies and so certain that she will top the album chart next week that they are refusing to take bets.

With an appearance on the X Factor on Sunday and a raft of publicity events lined up in the States next week, todays (Fri) shopping trip was a relaxing break for the singer.

See more of our pictures at our Flickr site and videos at our dedicated channel,  Deadline TV.

This was an important week for investment guru and billionaire watchers to see which gurus were holding which stocks.  The full public equity holdings of Warren Buffett via Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) were particularly of note, particularly with those B shares under “BRK-B” soon to split and giving a chance for even the less astute ranks of Joe Public to own a piece of the Berkshire dream.  Obviously the huge change is via the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) buyout.  As part of this deal, Buffett is exiting Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and exiting Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) stakes of about $600 million and $100 million, respectively, to avoid duplication and internal competition.  The rail transport play now accounts for about one-quarter of the total Berkshire Hathaway entity upon closing. But the less obvious position in that Warren Buffett in 2009 has made it clear that there will be a simpler and probably less “stock-hound” version of Berkshire Hathaway ahead.

Buffett has gone higher up the food chain and is likely to be a creditor now inside or to large institutions.  We have seen this during the crisis.  Buffett negotiated a better deal for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) than the US Government was able to get.  Buffett’s preferred stock in Goldman Sachs has a dividend of 10% and is callable at any time at a 10% premium; but Buffett also got warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115.00 per share, exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now), and Buffett would effectively get to pocket $61 per share if he exercised those all today at the market (and with a $2.6 billion warrant profit alone).

The General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) stake was listed only as 7.77 million shares of common stock (about $125 million now), the same as it has been for quarters.  Yet last year Buffett came to the rescue with a $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering with a dividend of 10% and warrants to purchase $3 billion of common stock.  The preferred is callable after 3-years (2 years now) at a 10% premium; the warrants have a strike price of $22.25 and are exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now).

Two other investments in preferred or note offerings made in the last year during the financial crunch were in Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) in February via 10% senior notes and in Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) with a 15% rate.  Neither of these are in the Buffett equity holdings.

Buffett increased his holdings in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to 37.8 million shares versus 19.9 million shares.  This could easily be hiked from about $1.9 billion today to almost infinity with its $208 billion market cap.  With over 10% officially unemployed in the U.S., Wal-Mart has become the shopping destination of millions more of Americans and that value and thrift trend is not likely to end any time soon.

Then there is the ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) bet that Buffett got his timing very wrong on.  He cut his stake again here to 57.4 million shares versus almost 62.5 million shares and still has the tax benefit for selling.  He added Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) with a 1.27 million share stake.  As Exxon is the largest company by market cap at $357 billion, this is much easier for Buffett to invest into rather than $79 billion market cap today in ConocoPhillips.

The Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) stake which he grew yet again is worth over $8.7 billion, and Buffett could probably insert more money there through time if it gets cheap again.  Then there is the new Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) position of 3.625 million shares ($100 million today) where Buffett is just investing alongside buddy Bill Gates now that Gates’ entity has a board seat there and a huge stake.

Then there are the overseas bets, and these are just some:

• $2.5 billion into diversified Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd.
• $4 billion to buy control of Iscar Metalworking in Israel
• $230 million for a 10% stake in BYD for electric batteries in China
• $144 million or so stake in Nestle

Buffett lent $4.4 billion to Mars for the Wrigley buyout.  He also lent Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) $3 billion for part of the Rohm & Haas deal. As noted earlier, Buffett is going higher up the food chain.  In fact, he is almost becoming the default alternative investment bank.  And he has cut down and exiting equity positions as well.

Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN), in power management, and WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC), in parts and systems for mostly commercial vehicles, were dropped entirely this last quarter.  It seems as though Buffett is also systematically exiting the Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) position now that the business model has changed.  He still holds too much there, but maybe better late than never.

Buffett is also not betting against the Obama health care plan as he cut his stakes in both Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) and UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH). It will be interesting to see if Buffett hangs on to those drug company stakes in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), at 1.51 million shares, and Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY), of more than 3.9 million shares.

Then when considering Buffett’s comments about the poor future of print media, you have to wonder if the Oracle of Omaha just won’t take his licks in Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) worth only about $39 million today and Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) worth $730 million today.

It still seems obvious that Buffett would like to hold a large utility as a wholly owned subsidiary.  That may be his next ‘whale of a deal’ after he builds his cash back up over $20 billion.  Buffett got burned on his dollar bet before, but he is active internationally.  The BNSF deal is arguably a China-coal bet rather than an “all-in bet on the future of America,” assuming that is not symbiotic.  This now makes Berkshire Hathaway even more of a financial and transport operation, with far less emphasis on public common stock bets.  And he is going higher on the food chain. It will alsways be interesting to see how Buffett invests the Berkshire Hathaway fortune.  But what is obvious is that he is starting to get out of the way of some bets and make more concentrated bets elsewhere.  The new Berkshire Hathaway is more of a financial and transportation operator now… more than ever… that is also acting as private investment banker.  The investment changes over the last year are showing more of a penchant for debt and being higher up the food chain than just common stock in the U.S.

This all acts to make Berkshire Hathaway more predictable in operations and even more of a true conglomerate.  And it makes the passive investments a bit more opaque.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

Again, here is the full list of Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway US public stock holdings.

JON C. OGG
November 19, 2009

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) has its Q3-2009 public equity holdings as of September 30, 2009.  In our group “A to F” we noted some interim changes in the lot.  Here are Warren Buffett’s holdings and accompanying notes for the group ‘G to O.’

• Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 3.447 million shares, same as before.
• General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares is the same as before, but does not include the huge preferred investment from late 2008.
• GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, same as before.
• Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) 2.757 million, same as last quarter.
• Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) 636,600 shares; WAY DOWN from the 7.78 million listed last quarter.
• Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) 3.3722 million shares, same as before.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was just over 36.91 million shares; Same as last quarter and still well under the 62 million shares at one point in 2008.
• Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) over 138 million; same as last quarter.
• Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) 6.5 million shares, same as last quarter.
• M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) 6.71 million shares, same as before.
• Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) was listed as over 39.2 million shares, but that is WAY DOWN from the 48 million last quarter.  Be advised that he has noted sales and hinted at more sales here.
• Nalco Holding (NYSE: NLC) 9.0 million shares, same as last quarter.
• Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) 7.641 million shares, same as before.
• Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) 1.933 million shares, same as before, but we already know Buffett has or is selling out of non-BNSF shares in rail companies.
• NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) 7.2 million, same as before.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS A to F

BUFFETT HOLDINGS P to Z

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

JON C. OGG

MCO is tradeable on a breakout or breadown of its triangle *if* it’s accompanied with increased volume…..or watch the $26 level for a possible Head & Shoulders bottom; again volume required.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) has just reported its Q3-2009 earnings ahead of the formal expectations.  This will be perhaps one of the last similar earnings reports with a relative comparisons because of its recent acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI).  The ongoing selling of Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) will be very limited in comparison to what change the railroad addition will make.

We were expecting the insurance operations to have a stellar quarter because there were no real storms that made landfall this year in hurricane season.  Thomson Reuters figures are hard to rely upon because of two issues.  There are very few ‘official estimates’ and there are many items inside the Berkshire Hathaway earnings that Buffett includes outside of what other companies include.  The consensus estimates was listed as $1,308.25 per share, but that is again a difficult number to use as a formal estimate.  Net earnings per share was $2,087 and operating earnings were $1,325 per share.  The key metrics are what we want to focus on today.

The new book value for the end of the September 30, 2009 quarter is $81,247  per share versus a $101,000 share price as of September 30 and a $102,400 close as of today.  Last quarter’s book value on June 30, 2009 was as $73,806 per share.

The mixed picture of the earnings at his bank holdings also will be limited in scope to the impact that the railroad addition will make.  The cost basis of Buffett’s equity securities (top stocks) are $38.923 billion and there are $22.048 in unrealized gains and -$3.564 billion in unrealized losses for a fair market value of $57.407 billion.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on Warren Buffett and other guru activity, top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG

The full detail of the release is long as always, so you can see the full Berkshire report here.

Warren Buffett is dumping Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO).  We’ll never know until it is already done whether the Oracle of Omaha wants to jettison it entirely from the holdings of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), but he has already lightened up twice in his stake, most recently this last week.  If you listened to Buffett on a CNBC call this morning after his Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), a simple interpretation is that he might just be booting all of his Moody’s position.  Our only criticism over this is that Buffett had enough foresight and knowledge that he could have come to the very same conclusion over a year ago at much higher prices.

And then our friend over at OptionHawk.com sent us this today regarding increased options trading: MCO traded a massive bearish collar as 10,000 December $26 calls are bought at $0.70, 10,000 December $20 puts are sold at $0.90, and a block of 550,000+ shares are shorted…. Shares of the credit services firm are in a channel down formation with the next target of $21….

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital noted a short sale that had been placed a while ago (noted in September) was in Moody’s Corp. because of his belief that the models of the ‘independent ratings agencies’ are going to permanently change.

We had also noted that this should be a position to dump back on July 27 when the stock was at $26.64 for the same reasons after he disclosed his first sale.

We have seen severe conflicts and troubles at Moody’s (and S&P for that matter) that we started covering all the way back in mid-2007 on this sector.  You can argue that it was at a different time in the financial and political world, but Buffett could have saved massive amounts of money had he started getting out when the game became a game which was at risk rather than after the game was up.

This morning he told CNBC regarding any actions of his huge stake in Moody’s, Buffett effectively that you’d have to make your own guess on what was going to happen to his stake there.  Our guess is that Berkshire Hathaway has signaled an exit here.  Even if that was not Buffett intent, his views on Moody’s long-term prospects cannot be anywhere near what they used to be.

JON C. OGG

Earnings season is seeming to wind down here, but that won’t stop the unusual suspects of key equity events and issues to watch this coming week.  We are looking into key issues for the coming week in the stocks of CardioNet, Inc. (NASDAQ:BEAT), CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT), Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE:  class=GNW), GFI Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GFIG), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), GlaxoSmithKline Plc (NYSE: GSK), Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), RADVISION Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) and Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO).

CardioNet, Inc. (NASDAQ:BEAT) took a hit on Friday night.  The company disclosed that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has not established a national pricing reimbursement rate for mobile cardiovascular telemetry in the Medicare final rule for the physician fee schedule for calendar year 2010. Reimbursement will continue to be carrier priced by Highmark Medicare Services CEO expressed “extreme disappointment” on this issue since the company and other industry providers have now serviced nearly 400,000 patients nationally with a significant portion being Medicare patients.  Much may already be priced in since that mammoth drop in the summer and its 52-week trading range is $5.60 to $35.89.  Shares closed at $5.91 Friday, yet the after-hours closing out pice showed a price drop of almost 7% to $5.50 on just under 17,000 shares.

The fate of CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) is unknown, at least for the common equity holders.  As of Sunday morning there is still no official word of its pre-packaged bankruptcy filing.  This is after it secured $1 billion from Carl Icahn, received another $4.5 billion in high-rate loans, and amended a Goldman facility all late in the week.  CNBC’s David Faber hinted at a pre-packaged bankruptcy filing possibly over the weekend or Monday morning.  CIT only had one positive day last week and the stock lost about 36% of its value.  If CIT does go bankrupt, common shareholders might want to consider what almost happens to the value of common stock.  CIT does have an equity and debt issue which trades under the CIT-PZ ticker, and it rose on Friday.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is a financial stock we want to highlight from last week.  It is not just that it posted a surprise earnings gain rather than an expected loss.  The company completed a capital raise back in September with a sale of 55.2 million shares of common stock to raise $622 million.  This was dilutive and it is always difficult in today’s world to trust financial balance sheets, but what stood out the most is the book value comments. ”Book value per share grew 10 percent sequentially to $25.42 per share from $23.01 per share as of June 30, 2009, reflecting improvement in the investment environment and the additional equity capital partially offset by an increased number of shares. Book value per share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), decreased sequentially to $25.37 per share from $27.33 per share as of June 30, 2009.” We would not believe for a second that this means the company could just go sell itself off for that price.  But with earnings starting to normalize and with the closing bell price of $10.62, book values of $25.42 and $25.37 start to make the stock picture more clear here.

GFI Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GFIG) had an awful trading response after the inter-dealer broker’s earnings report missed estimates and as it saw a decline in its equity trading volumes in both Europe and the U.S.  The metrics were not pretty on the declines of 21% in revenue to $192.2 million and net income outside of items was $0.06 EPS vs. $0.09 EPS from Thomson Reuters.  The 22.6% drop on Friday to $5.15 now takes it back into the lower-half of its 52-week trading range of $2.09 to $12.25.  One issue we have always highlighted as a boom-bust for GFI Group is the OTC derivatives trading.  While it is riskless for GFI itself, the market is becoming much more regulated and all the risk management and governmental oversight (and criticism) makes the chances that GFI won’t get to make anywhere what it did back at the peak.

Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) is likely to have its most important day on Monday with the release of new data on the second of the company’s late-stage drug trials of its lupus drug Benlysta.  Our friend over at OptionsHawk.com pointed out huge activity in the options trading on Thursday and as we suspected the volume was through the roof again on Friday.  This also has an influence on its partner GlaxoSmithKline Plc (NYSE: GSK) as they will split the profits 50/50.  As lupus has had no real advancements in years, this drug has the potential for an instant blockbuster status of over $1 billion in annual sales.  That would put a Q1 FDA new drug application as likely.  This traded over 100,000 call options alone on Friday and depending on how you calculate this, the options traders are braced for a move of 22% to 29% in either direction.  Shares are likely to be halted early Monday until the news release.

Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) may be under fire all over again after an SEC filing from after 7:00 PM on Friday showed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) dumped another $28.7 million worth of stock in Moody’s over concerns of its core ratings business and what regulation and criticism is coming down the pike. Frankly, the old guy should have been dumping this one last year and the year before when he probably realized that trouble was headed this way.  This is one of his largest percentage holdings that Buffett has, and we’d also note that it seems Berkshire may report earnings this coming Friday.

RADVISION Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) and Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) are both going to be interesting to watch in this week.  For starter’s, Cisco is one the top ten earnings on deck this coming week.  But there were reports on Friday that Cisco may walk away from the $3.1 billion acquisition of Tandberg because of minority shareholders wanting more.  RADVISION only traded around its earnings and two very light upgrades in the stock.  But when Cisco announced the deal to buy Tandberg, RADVISION stock fell from over $9.00 to roughly $6.00 because Cisco happens to be its largest client.  If Cisco won’t be changing its RADVISION down the road, then there is huge upside here if the Tandberg deal is called off.  We would not give it 100% of its lost ground back on an old recovery model, but we would target 30% and then 50% of the ground lost.  If that occurs, then $7 or $7.50 seems very plausible as a first stop.  We had an options take on this possibility.

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JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 1, 2009

Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) lead analyst covering US debt said that the Amercan goverment could lose its “AAA” rating if it cannot cut the deficit and budget gaps in the next three to four years.

Steven Hess told Reuters: “The Aaa rating of the U.S. is not guaranteed.” The current rating should be stable for at least 18 months.

It was only earlier this year that the UK government got a similar warning from credit agencies.

China expressed concern to Secretary Geithner that it does not have an unending appetite for US Treasury paper. At some point the People’s Republic will not be willing to risk a larger part of its $2 trillion reserves on debt that it believes has some risk, albeit a small one, of defaulting.

One thing that is nearly certain is the the US government will end up paying much higher interest rates for its debt as it needs to fund its own interest payments starts to join the need to fund the principal. There is also that very real risk that American debt will begin to crowd private debt out of the global capital markets, raising interest costs for all borrowers.

Both Ben Bernanke and Geithner have said that the deficit must come down, but government spending and stimulus costs are actually rising. Only yesterday, the Administration suggested a new program to help small businesses. With growing unemployment, it is unlikely the IRS receipts will rise.

The Moody’s comments may not mean much for three years, but they could start to roil the capital markets much sooner.

Douglas A. McIntyre