The January index reading is 43 points, or 72 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9.

The index averaged 103 for all of 2012, 12 points above the index average for full-year 2011. December’s index reading was revised upward from 102.7 to 102.9.

“Following a strong December, our Michigan Index was mostly flat in January,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “The index components were mixed, with payrolls, hotel occupancy, construction and motor vehicle production stronger. Exports, sales tax revenues and claims were weaker. Auto sales have remained solid through the first two months of 2013, even as other consumer spending suffered from increased federal taxes. Looking ahead, Michigan remains vulnerable to reduced federal spending, as well as slower growth in the manufacturing sector compared with earlier in the recovery cycle.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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The December index reading is 43 points, or 71 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9, reached at the bottom of the last recession.

The index averaged 103 for all of 2012, 12 points above the index average for full-year 2011.

“Although the Michigan index saw an uptick in its December level, to 102.7, the index is still more than five points off of its recent July peak of 107.8,” said Comerica chief economist Robert Dye. “Index components for December were mostly weak, with only motor vehicle production and sales tax revenues notching positives for the month. Auto sales remained solid through January, even as other consumer spending suffered from increased federal taxes. Looking ahead, Michigan remains vulnerable to reduced federal spending, as well as slower growth in the manufacturing sector compared with earlier in the recovery cycle.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004, whose economic activity is equal to 100 on the index. Current values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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The July index reading is 48 points, or 88 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9 reached at the bottom of the last recession.

The index has averaged 103 points so far in 2012, 12 points above the index average for all of 2011.

“The Michigan economy accelerated rapidly this summer, driving our Michigan Economic Activity Index up a total of 5.9 points from May through July. July marks the highest reading for the Michigan economy since November 2002,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Job creation picked up again in July, while housing markets are showing signs of improvement with sales and prices increasing. August U.S. vehicle sales picked back up to a 14.5 million unit rate and that is encouraging.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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The June index reading is 46 points, or 77 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9, reached at the bottom of the last recession.

The index has averaged 102 points over the first half of 2012, 11 points above the index average for all of 2011.

“The Michigan economy pushed further ahead in June, with our Michigan Economic Activity Index up strongly for the second month,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “The rate of job creation has slowed over the first two quarters of the year as U.S. auto sales have plateaued around a 14 million unit annual sales rate in 2012. But outside of durable goods manufacturing, we are seeing ongoing gains. Housing markets statewide are improving as sales and prices increase. New home construction remains low, but is expected to increase to meet pent up demand.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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Also, according to the Michigan Association of Realtors, the number of single family homes sold in Michigan rose 14 percent in July compared to one year earlier. The July 2012 average sales price was $116,116, a 6.55 percent increase over the 2011.

The May index reading is 44 points, or 73 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9 hit at the bottom of the last recession.

The index has averaged 102 points in the first five months of 2012, 11 points above the index average for all of 2011.

“The economic recovery of Michigan is broadening, pushing our Michigan Economic Activity Index back up in May after a slight dip in April,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “The rate of job creation has slowed in recent months as U.S. auto sales have plateaued around a 14 million unit annual sales rate in 2012. But outside of durable goods manufacturing, we are seeing ongoing gains. Housing markets statewide are improving as sales, prices and the rate of new construction all increase.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production.  All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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The index has averaged 101 points in 2012, 10 points above the index average for all of 2011. The March index reading was revised to 102.9.

“Following three months of sharp increases, our Michigan Economic Activity Index paid back some of its gains in April,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “A downshift in U.S. economic momentum, visible beginning in March, may take a little steam out of auto sales and production over the summer months, but this will not be enough to roll back recent gains to the Michigan economy.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production.

All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year, 2004 — the economic activity that year is equal to 100 on the index. The index also converts current dollars to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank, with 218 banking centers in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

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You can follow Comerica Chief Economist Robert Dye on Twitter at @Comerica_Econ.

The March index reading is 42 points, or 70 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9 reached at the bottom of the last recession.

The index averaged 101 points in the first quarter of 2012, 10 points above the index average for all of 2011.

“After jumping sharply higher in April, our Michigan Economic Activity Index dipped slightly in March, reflecting cooler auto sector activity. We expect the auto sector to remain vigorous through 2012, and we expect that Michigan will hang on to gains driven by rebounding auto sales and production,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Challenging global macroeconomic conditions remain a concern, as do expected cuts in federal defense spending. Recently choppy U.S. economic data is not expected to significantly impair domestic auto sales.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production.  All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004, which equals 100 on the index. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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The February index level is 42 points, or 70 percent, above the index cyclical low of 60 reached at the bottom of the recession.

Year-to-date the index has averaged 100 points, nine points above the index average for all of 2011.

“Our Michigan Economic Activity Index has broken sharply higher, showing rapid gains in the Michigan economy in early 2012,” aid Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “We are seeing broad-based gains in economic activity, showing that the revitalization of the auto industry is having a fundamental positive impact on the state economy. Threats to the Michigan economy are still visible in the form of challenging global macroeconomic conditions and expected cuts in federal defense spending. Recently softer U.S. economic data is not expected to significantly impair domestic auto sales.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production.  All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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January marks the highest index reading since January 2006, and it is seven points above the index average for all of 2011.

“A rebounding U.S. auto industry drove our Michigan Economic Activity Index sharply higher in January, after stalling in late 2011,” siad Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Every component of the Michigan index increased in January, a sign that the recovery in Michigan is reaching beyond the revitalized auto industry and into the non-manufacturing sectors of the state economy. Threats to the Michigan economy are still visible in the form of cooler global macroeconomic conditions, higher energy prices and expected cuts in federal defense spending. However, these headwinds are not expected to reverse the state’s recent hard-fought gains.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production.  All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

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The November index level is 17 points, or 24 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.

Year-to-date the index has averaged 87 points, two points above the average for all of 2010.

“The Michigan economy continues to be buttressed by recovery in the auto sector,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Recent stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data is good news for U.S. auto sales and that is good news for Michigan. Total consumer debt as a percentage of income is very low right now, so there is ample room for many households to take on a new car payment once they feel more secure in their job prospects and more secure about the U.S. economy as a whole. Regional labor markets in Michigan remain patchy, but overall, unemployment rates are trending down. Soft house prices are still a problem for Michigan, as well as for most other states.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

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The September index level is 17 points, or 24 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.

Year-to-date the index has averaged 87 points, two points above the average for all of 2010.

“Michigan is benefitting from increasing auto sales and vehicle production,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “U.S. auto sales increased to a 13.6 million unit rate in November and that is good news for the state. The climb out of the depths of the recession still looks very uneven though as hard hit areas within Michigan are stuck with very high unemployment rates. Moreover, where we have seen declines in regional unemployment rates, the declines are due not just to job growth, but also due to declines in the labor force, reflecting lower labor force participation rates. Housing markets in Michigan and elsewhere are still a drag to economic growth and will likely be soft through 2012.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

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The August index \level is 16 points, or 23 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71 at the bottom of the recession in 2009.

Year-to-date the index has averaged 87 points, two points above the average for all of 2010.

“The Michigan economy has held on to the gains generated by the restructuring automotive industry,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Auto sales firmed up in September to a 13 million unit pace nationwide. That helps to support recent increases to auto production as U.S. automakers move past the supply-chain bottlenecks that followed the Japan earthquake. Auto sales are expected to increase through 2012, but impaired consumer confidence and tepid job creation will keep sales gains confined to the weak-to-moderate range. Construction activity in Michigan is likely to remain soft and will be a leveling factor on the Michigan Economic Activity Index for some time to come. The ongoing crisis in the euro-zone does add downside risk to the global macroeconomic outlook.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays.  A complete Index history is available upon request.

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The July index level is 15 points, or 21 percent, above the cyclical index low of 71. Year-to-date, the index has averaged 87 points, two points above the average for all of 2010.

“The Michigan economy received a needed boost from increased automobile production, beginning in July, as supply-chain constraints eased,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Sales for the three Detroit automakers held up in August and September despite the severe drop in consumer confidence that we saw at the end of the summer. As long as auto sales remain supportive of the rebound in production, the Michigan manufacturing sector will hold on to recent gains. Lower gasoline prices and ample pent-up demand are also positives for the auto sector. Outside of durable goods manufacturing, conditions remain challenging. Consumer spending is fundamentally constrained by a weak housing market and a downshift in global macroeconomic expectations is keeping hiring tentative.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

The June index level is 15 points, or 21 percent, above the cyclical index low of 71 at the bottom of the last recession.

Year-to-date, the index has averaged 88 points, three points above the average for all of 2010.

“The Michigan index gave back the small gains it made over the first three months of the year, finishing the second quarter at the same level as 2010 year-end,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Weak motor vehicle sales, and weak vehicle production in the wake of the Japan earthquake, along with weak growth in nonfarm payrolls, held the index down in June. A third quarter rebound in the state’s auto sector should provide lift to the index in coming months.  However, downside risk to the broader U.S. economy and to the Euro-Zone economies remains elevated. The rapid decline in consumer confidence in August is particularly threatening to the auto sector. The good news is that there is ample pent-up demand for new cars, which would be unleashed in the presence of moderate job creation, stable gasoline prices and low interest rates.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays.  A complete Index history is available upon request.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

:After three months of drag, motor vehicle production contributed significantly to the January rise in our index,” said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Further gains in the motor vehicle sector are likely over the first half of 2011 given that the Michigan-based producers have boosted their production plans in reaction to stronger national sales.  More broadly, the Michigan economy is poised to make modest gains in 2011, against a background of gradually accelerating national growth.”

As of this release, seasonal factors of the index have been revised.  A revised index history is available upon request.

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays.  A complete Index history is available upon request.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

The Index averaged 85 for all of 2010, up 11 points, or 15 percent, from the average for all of 2009. November’s reading was revised from a level of 87 to 86.

“Motor vehicle production was a significant drag on our index in each of the last three months of 2010,” said Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “That weakness will reverse in the first quarter given that the Detroit Three have announced sizable increases in output for the first quarter. Looking beyond the rebound in auto assemblies, the Michigan economy in 2011 is poised to make modest gains, against a background of gradually accelerating national growth.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

November’s level was up 16 points, or 23 percent, above the cycle low of 71 reached in July 2009. 

Year-to-date the Index averaged a level of 85, up 11 points, or 15 percent, from the average for all of 2009. 

“Our November Index reading reinforced the flat trend that has emerged in the Michigan economy over the past five months,” said Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Growth in Michigan over the 11 months to November has been sluggish and uneven. Looking ahead to 2011, the Michigan economy is poised to make modest gains, fueled by increases in auto production and sales, and against a background of gradually accelerating national growth.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weighs nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays.  A complete Index history is available upon request.

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October’s level is up 16 points, or 23 percent, above the cycle low of 71 reached in July 2009. Year-to-date the Index has averaged a level of 85, up 11 points, or 15 percent, from the average for all of 2009. 

“October’s reading reversed the two-point increase in our Index in the prior month, tracing out a flat trend in the Michigan economy over the past four months,” said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank.  “As has been the case in the national economy over the second half of the year, growth in Michigan has been sluggish and uneven. Looking ahead, the Michigan economy is poised to make modest gains in coming months, against a background of gradually accelerating national growth.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weights nine seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

(c) 2010, WWJ Newsradio 950. All rights reserved.

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index rose two points in September, to 89. That’s up two points from August and 14 points better than September, 2009. The Index hasn’t been this high since June, 2008.

Comerica Chief Economist Dana Johnson says the third-quarter spike came after stalled growth from February through June. Johnson sees a modest improvement in the state economy through the end of the year.

The Index reflects activity in five economic barometers, including construction, manufacturing, services, job growth and consumer purchases.

(Copyright 2010 WWJ Newsradio 950. All Rights Reserved. The Associated Press Contributed To This Story)

The August level is 23 percent above the Index’s cyclical low. Year to date, the index has averaged 10 points, or 13 percent, above the Index average for all of 2009.

“Following a three point surge in July, our index held steady in August, matching its highest level in more than two years,” said Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Although August showed no increase in our Index, the underlying variables all contributed positively, with the exception of steel production. Against a background of sluggish national growth, I expect our Michigan Index to trend modestly higher over the balance of 2010.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity.  These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

To receive this Index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

(c) 2010, WWJ Newsradio 950. All rights reserved.

Year-to-date the Index is up nine points, or 13 percent from the average for all of 2009.

“After trending sideways in a two-point range for five consecutive months, our Index rose three points in July, to its highest level in more than two years,” said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “State motor vehicle and steel production were particularly strong in July, reflecting the absence of the normal summer retooling shutdowns at some of the auto companies. Looking ahead, the slower growth in the national economy that emerged in the second quarter could constrain growth in Michigan over the balance of the year.”

The Michigan Economic Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. A complete Index history is available upon request.

(c) 2010, WWJ Newsradio 950. All rights reserved.