News item: we now know that Al Franken used the wisdom gleaned from Chris Anderson’s idea about the Long Tail to win his election.

The Long Tail, the idea championed by Chris Anderson, and Microtrends, the book by Mark Penn, converge in this story. And you can throw a little Seth Godin and Tribes into the mix.

You probably know the concept of the Long Tail by now. A Border’s or Barnes and Noble store will stock books that have the best chance of selling. Amazon sells the same books, and some 80% of the books sold on Amazon are stocked in a typical physical retail bookstore. But 20% of sales for Amazon are from the “long tail.” (A quick read for this idea, and it is pretty good, is the wickipedia article on the Long Tail).

The traditional way to make money was to market to the masses. But increasingly, the way to reach people is with narrower niche marketing. This is really the end game of the long tail – it enables one to market, very successfully, to an increasingly narrow niche. Mark Penn describes it this way in Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes:

All these people out there living a more single, independent life are slivering America into hundreds of small niches. (The number of households in America has exploded, even though population growth has slowed dramatically).
This book is about the niching of America. How there is no One America anymore, or Two, or Three, or Eight. In fact, there are hundreds of Americas, hundreds of new niches made up of people drawn together by common interests.
You can’t understand the world anymore only in terms of “megatrends,” or universal experiences. In today’s splintered society, if you want to operate successfully, you have to understand the intense identity groups that are growing and moving, fast and furious in crisscrossing directions. That is microtrends.
A microtrend is an intense identity group, that is growing, which has needs and wants unmet by the current crop of companies, marketers, policymakers, and others who would influence society’s behavior.

The number crunchers keep examining the last election. Here is a revealing description about the Franken win (let me recommend, don’t let your politics, one way or the other, get in the way — – pay attention to the marketing implications). I first read this in a Daily Kos post, but the source is Long-Tail Nanotargeting from Politics Magazine.

Thanks to Democrat Al Franken’s Senate campaign, we now have a proven model to move beyond [the old campaign voter targeting] strategies. We do it by tapping into the concept of the “long tail,” an Internet marketing theory popular in the corporate world. It’s based on the idea that the Internet audience is extremely fractured. So, instead of identifying the most universally persuasive messages and broadcasting them to a wide audience, in the long-tail model you take the most persuasive messages and nanotarget each one to the right niche.
People don’t go to one place, looking for one thing. Their whims take them to a million places. The trick is to be everywhere, with tightly targeted messages. It’s about showing them highly relevant factoids/ads tailored to the whim they’re currently indulging, which if clicked, will redirect them to a relevant part of your website or related off-site content. In short, long-tail nanotargeting takes those little gems—be it an endorsement, video, news story, or ask—and shows it to the people who would care. To this end, we ran more than 30 million impressions for the Franken campaign across five horizontal ad networks, two vertical networks and dozens of local news outlets.
We nanotargeted more than 125 niche groups, with more than 1,000 pieces of creative, for less than $100,000. On Google alone, an acquisition budget of less than $20,000 got us more than 20,000 clicks, 5,500 active e-mail sign- ups, and more than 2,500 donors. We were able to reach persuasion niches (this is akin to someone opening up and reading a mail piece) for a fraction of a penny per impression, and less than 50 cents per interaction.
They targeted geographic and demographic niches online. They tested messages to see what worked best. Here’s an example:
In real terms, Minnesotans who were searching for cheap gas or researching fuel-efficient cars saw ads about Franken’s plan to lower gas prices.

The long tail has made Amazon successful, helped elect Al Franken, and, I suspect, will be the way to go for an ever growing number of businesses. It is the internet that makes this possible. But it is understanding the long tail, and implementing strategies that take advantage of the long tail, that will make people more successful.

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You can purchase my synopses of The Long Tail and Microtrends, and my colleague Karl Krayer’s synopsis of Tribes, with audio + handout, from our companion site, 15minutebusinessbooks.com.

Vor kurzem habe ich das Buch „Microtrends“ von Mark J. Penn gelesen.  In einem Abschnitt des Buches geht es um Männer, die nicht von Zuhause ausziehen wollen.  Sie wohnen bei ihren Eltern, geben ihr gemütliches Schlafzimmer nicht auf, werden von den Eltern durchgefüttert und fahren die Familienautos, wenn sie wollen.

In „Microtrends“ steht, dass 82 Prozent der 18- bis 30-jährigen italienischen Männer noch bei ihren Eltern wohnen.  Man nennt sie Mammonis (d.h. Mamma’s Boy).  Wir stellen diesen Trend nicht nur in Italien fest, sondern auch in anderen europäischen Ländern.  In Deutschland nennt man solche Männer Nesthocker (d.h. Nest Squatters) und in Großbritanien Kippers (d.h. Kids in Parents’ Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings).  Ich habe auch den französischen Film „Tanguy“ gesehen.  In diesem Film versuchen die Eltern, ihren erwachsenen Sohn aus dem Haus rauszuschmeißen.

Auf jeden Fall gibt es einige Gründe für dieses Phänomen.

1. Sinkende Eheschließungsrate

Je später man heiratet, desto länger bleibt man im Elternhaus.  In vielen Fällen sind Männer weder verheiratet, noch haben sie eine Partnerin!

2. Arbeitslosigkeit

Viele Männer können keine Arbeit finden – geschweige denn genug Geld verdienen, um eine Wohnung zu mieten oder zu kaufen.

3. Respekt gegenüber den Eltern und Familienbindungen

Besonders in Asien (z.B. Singapur) bevorzugen es die Eltern, wenn die Kinder zu Hause leben und sich um die Eltern kümmern.  Außerdem sind viele Familien sehr gerne zusammen und helfen sich gegenseitig.

Also, wenn man bei den eigenen Eltern lebt, ist man einerseits gut versorgt, andererseits muss man aber das Bedürfnis nach Freiheit und Privatsphäre zurückstecken.

Ich kann mir überhaupt nicht vorstellen, über längere Zeit bei meinen Eltern zu wohnen.  Seit ich 15 Jahre alt bin, stehe ich auf eigenen Füßen – ich schätze deshalb meine Freiheit, Privatsphäre und Selbständigkeit.   Diese Freiheit würde ich nie eintauschen.

I’m reading this great book, Microtrends by Mark J. Penn, who, by way of massive amounts of research, reveals microtrends like ’soccer moms’ and their collective effect on American life. The first chapter highlights microtrends within the category of ‘Love, Sex, and Relationships’. Since I am single, and have actually googled the average age of marriage for an American female (yes, there’s a wikipedia page) in a moment of excess estrogen and pathetic self pity (possibly while watching the fourth episode in a row of TLC’s ‘Say Yes To The Dress’ with my bffs Cherry and Garcia) the statistics about ’sex-ratio’ singles was particularly intriguing. So here’s the excerpt, followed by my more rational opinion:

“Here’s how the numbers play out. At birth, girls have it pretty good. there are 90,000 more boys born every year than girls, setting up a favorable dating ratio. But by the time those kids turn 18, the sex ration has shifted a full point the other way to 51 to 49, because more boys die in puberty than girls. As though that wasn’t bad enough – socially speaking for heterosexual women – the Gay Factor then kicks in. Assuming that about 5 percent of U.S. adults are gay (as experts claim, and polls bear out), there are something like 7.5 million gay men and 3.5 million lesbians in America. If you subract them from the already lopsided numbers of overall men and women, you get something like 109 million straight women to 98 million straight men – for a straight sex ration of 53 to 47.”

I’m sure these numbers don’t surprise you, mostly because the research bears out the tired romantic comedy theme: all the good men are taken or gay. But still – QUICK! Find someone, anyone who will have you, IT’S LITERALLY YOUR LAST CHANCE! Just kidding, that was only my first reaction. Then I perked up. Especially after Maria Shriver’s new report dominated news cycles this week.

Now, now, dry your lonely tears and listen up. What a time to be a single woman in America! Never have there been more economic opportunities for women. Never have there been such extraordinary and diverse reproductive options. Single women abound! So redirect that Disney-fueled Prince Charming aspiration, ditch the fantasy, and make your own way. Single and successful is the new Disney princess. Possibly recognizing the potential downer of a chapter he was writing, Penn offers a few mood-boosting statistics like this gem: ‘in 2005, single women were the second-largest group of home buyers, just behind married couples. They bought nearly 1.5 million home that year, more than TWICE as many as single men.’ Makes me want to shout and cheer GIRLS RULE, BOYS DROOL! Or this, given the rise of single women, new trend: ‘the number of women bearing or adopting children without a partner – known as the Single Mothers by Choice’. Seems that marriage isn’t the only path to having it all.

So although I appreciate Beyonce’s catchy little tune and the zeitgeist it’s become, the ‘independent’ woman anthem falls short. Today’s single woman is a first rate force to be reckoned with, not a prim, ring-obsessed second string. Embrace it.

“Microtrends” was surprisingly good.  Usually I don’t enjoy business books.  This one however was quite interesting.  Each chapter discussed an emerging trend.  Some are religious, some are lifestyle based, some are political.  Each discussed groups and the trends that are emerging….And what repercussions might come from it.

So read it if you like….I certainly did.

Mark Penn is a certified guru on the subject of political polling. His famous clients include Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. He was also engaged by Hilary Clinton in the recent US presidential election where he was famously ‘fired’ over a conflict of interest.

This well written and researched book, probably largely penned by his co-author, provides a neat package of small-scale (<1% of the population) social trends that politicians and marketers should take note of.

Why? For two good reasons:

1. Major changes in the political and marketing landscape start as microtrends. If you are skillful enough to spot them and develop an appealing proposition you could ‘make a killing’.
2. Although small scale, these microtrends can still offer substantial opportunities for skilled politicians and marketeers. 1% of the population is still a big market if you have a ‘good product’ for it.

This is a book to dip into a bit like an anthology of short stories. Unlike most anthologies however, there are no duffs  here – each of the microtrends identified is interesting and insightful.

Books Bought:

1. Rebecca by Daphne Du Maurier*
2. David Copperfield by Charles Dickens
3. Gone With The Wind by Margaret Mitchell*
4. Inheritance of Loss by Kiran Desai
5. Microtrends by Mark Penn
6. The Historian by Elizabeth Kostova

*bought, but I already own a copy at home. 

Books Read:

1. Omnivore’s Dilemma by Michael Pollan
2. The Complete Polysyllabic Spree by Nick Hornby
3. Rebecca by Daphne Du Maurier

So I’m back from traipsing around beautiful Southeast Asia. Singapore has many charms including a stunning national orchid garden and a Borders bookstore. I wish I could have bought out Borders, but unfortunately the exchange rate + GST=no go. But I’m rather glad to be back here in my home away from home. It’s pretty chilly still so I’ve taken to grabbing books in the morning and heading over to a warm cafe to read for the afternoons. The less I turn on my heater (that doesn’t really do the job anyway), the smaller our monthly electric/gas bill, and the happier everyone is. 

But I’m writing this post because I just reread Rebecca by Daphne Du Maurier today. What a great book. It’s so underhanded but a page-turner. But I think one of the best parts is the opening line because it captures so much of how the plot will resolve itself, “Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again.” And then because I read that opening line, I thought about another famous opening line, “Mrs. Dalloway said she would buy the flowers herself.” 

And that got me thinking, what makes a great first line? Why are those two so memorable? And I was going to some literary criticism search on it, but I don’t feel like asking the experts tonight. I think in the case of Mrs. Dalloway, it must have to do with how carefully chosen each word must be–because the story is such a short one. I can’t, at the moment, think of any other first lines that have always stuck with me. 

The other great thing about Rebecca is the anonymous narrator. I feel like the Anonymous Narrator should get more appreciation as a character. I haven’t sat down to think about it systematically, but I wonder if the anonymous narrator is a period thing or geographic or universal. But there’s so much character building by choosing to leave out names–a sharp contrast to Jhumpa Lahiri’s point about names. 

So yeah, I’m planning to read a lot more this year. I’m not quite sure why I rebought Gone With The Wind. I have the exact same copy/edition sitting on my bookshelf at home, and I have plenty of other things to read here. But I was feeling a little homesick, and I saw the red cover in the bookstore, and I had a strange craving to relive Scarlett O’Hara. Never thought I would identify myself so much with Atlanta, Georgia.

Finished reading Microtrends by Mark J. Penn this morning. Here’s my review from GoodReads:

Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes by Mark J. Penn

My review

rating: 5 of 5 stars
I’m a trend junkie and this book feeds that need in spades. Penn introduces over 75 trends, each of which is described in just a few pages. This makes it an easy book to pick up, read a little, and set down when you don’t have much time. I’ve had inklings of most of the trends mentioned, but not those in the chapter on International trends. A number of surprises there. Great book for the sociologist hidden inside of you.

View all my reviews.

And now it’s time for bed. (1:15 a.m. Ugh!)

Author : Mark J. Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne

Release date : Sept., 2007

You pick up a book with a title like this and a back cover listing:

*”People are retiring but continuing to work.”

*”Teens are turning to knitting.”

*“Geeks are becoming the most sociable people around.” ….  You think: “Hey, this sounds just like my friend, Charlie…”

*”Women are driving technology.” …. and wonder, “I am…?”

*Dads are older than ever and spending more time with their kids than in the past.”

You flip to a page and soon become so engrossed in it that you don’t know you’re beginning to smile. Then you start to chuckle. Wait, you do know someone just like that—yourself! Before you know it,  you’ve chortled your way through a humorous chapter.   A lot of the details are plain hilarious!

Mark Penn just has a way with words. His wit lends a lot of levity to what easily could have been one of those tedious analytical tomes for intellectual heavyweights (just a nice euphemism for pedantic bores). He could write fiction and be a hit! He is just that funny.

But don’t let this lead you to thinking that this book is too breezy to be serious reading. Microtrends is a serious analysis. It’s a fascinating account of emerging social behaviors that are or will be powerful enough to influence how society will think, act, and be in the next several years. Penn writes:

“In fact, the whole idea that there are a few huge trends that determine how America and the world work is breaking down. There are no longer a couple of megaforces sweeping us all along. Instead, America and the world are being pulled apart by an intricate maze of choices, accumulating in “microtrends”—small, under-the-radar forces that can involve as little as 1 percent of the population, but which are powerfully shaping our society. It’s just not that small is the new big. It’s that in order to truly know what’s going on,…we need the equivalent of magnifying glasses and microscopes…polls, surveys, and statistics. They take a slice of the matter being studied and lay it open…and inside, you will find yourself, your friends, your clients, your customers, and your competition, clearer than you ever thought you might.”

Microtrends is really about “small ideas that can lead to large changes”. “A microtrend is an intense identity group, that is growing, which has needs and wants unmet by the current crop of companies, marketers, policymakers, and others who would influence society’s behavior.”

Although Penn’s focus is trending American society, he does go further to include similar global behavior. In a global economy, trends spread fast and could become international driving forces that may, in the future, upset or enhance established social norms around the world.

Who should read this book? Those who need to be one step ahead of competition have to watch and be aware of these growing groups whose unique requirements are changing the way things are.  But it would do most of us, “go with the flow” people, a lot of good to be enlightened. Let us not wake up one day and say, “What’s the world gotten into?” ; but say, “ “We’ve  known , we’ve read, and we’ve been watching.”

So, grab a copy. I guarantee an easy, fast read—a page-turner! For a non-fiction novel on sociology, that’s saying a lot! If only more analytical books were written like this, we would all be more “in the know”. Well, hey, maybe Penn just started a trend!

My Mark : Excellent

According to the Wall Street Journal, blogging is the engine driving a knowledge economy, or at least a Ponzi scheme in punditry:

“In America today, there are almost as many people making their living as bloggers as there are lawyers. Already more Americans are making their primary income from posting their opinions than Americans working as computer programmers, firefighters or even bartenders…

…The best studies we can find say we are a nation of over 20 million bloggers, with 1.7 million profiting from the work ,and 452,000 of those using blogging as their primary source of income. That’s almost 2 million Americans getting paid by the word, the post, or the click — whether on their site or someone else’s. And that’s nearly half a million of whom it can be said, as Bob Dylan did of Hurricane Carter: “It’s my work he’d say, I do it for pay.”

But did any of the journalists and editors involved in publishing this article read the fine print in these studies? Guess not, as the median annual revenue for U.S. blogs from advertising was $200. Among “high revenue” bloggers – the top 10 percent in Technorati’s survey, the overall annual revenue from blogging was $19,000. All of which suggests that very, very few people are making a living from blogging.

To confuse matters further, the “best studies” the Journal could find appear to have been mixed and matched in ways that are deceptive. The Technorati survey had a sample size of 550 American bloggers, but it’s not clear how they were randomly sampled (and thus are a statistically reliable sample) or whether that sample is supposed to reflect 20 million, two million, or 452,000 U.S. bloggers. (This latter number is sourced to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but as one of the many critical comments on the article on the Journal web site notes, there is no such statistic kept by the Bureau.)

According to the Bureau, wage-and-salaried lawyers had median annual earnings of $102,470 in 2006. And “the middle 50 percent” of bartenders “earned between $6.77 and $10.10. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $6.00, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $13.56 an hour.”

The “Microtrends” column was written by the pollster and political consultant Mark Penn, who defines “Microtrends as

“the niching of society. People are self-defining in smaller and smaller ways, and neither ‘gut sense’ nor conventional wisdom will likely get you to the truth. Go straight to the numbers, and let’s do some microtrending.

Microtrending is clearly in need of some statistical rigor, so in light of the numbers, here’s the macro view: unless you figure you can become a star blogger like Andrew Sullivan or Perez Hilton, you’re almost certain to earn more money pulling pints and shaking cocktails than writing blog posts.

Update: More criticism of the numbers here.