I am 12,500 words into the first novel of my new ‘Cold War’ series. There will be three books in total, covering the hypothetical invasion of West Germany, the Federal Republic of Germany, by the Warsaw Pact in the mid 1980′s. Book 1, ‘The Red Effect’, will encompass the intelligence build up leading to the Warsaw Pact strike against the NATO forces lined up against them.

The Cold War era started very soon after the end of the second world war, when the communist east, led by the Soviet Union, and the Western world, led by the United States and its NATO allies, faced each across what became known as the ‘Iron Curtain’.

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The capital of Germany, Berlin, was divided into four Sectors. The consequence being, that the three Western Allied powers now controlled territory deep within the Soviet Union Zone of Germany.

Over time, the tensions between the four Allied powers increased, eventually resulting in the Berlin blockade in 1948, when the Soviets attempted to starve West Berlin into submission and force the other three Allied powers out. This failed and the Soviets eventually relented, but an ever-increasing number of East Germans fled to the West; between 150,000 and 300,000 a year during 1951-1953. As a consequence restrictions were placed on movement between the divided country. From 1961, the border was closed and Berlin completely encircled, first by barbed wire, then bricks and finally a concrete wall, along with the infamous ‘death strip’.

Access was now restricted between Berlin and the West. A wall, 124 mile miles in length, was placed around the three sectors of West Berlin, cutting off the city from the rest of the world.

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The badly damaged Reichstag. Berlin 1945

The present day photograph

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An Iconic picture of the face-off between the West and the East.  The Cold War starts – October 1961

Another iconic picture of a GDR Border Guard fleeing across the barbed wire to the West -Berlin 1961

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I shall cover various aspects of the two opposing forces, providing the backdrop and background information in preparation for the release of my three novels. In the meantime, you could always read my WW2 series, Devils with Wings.

In 1984/85, the Warsaw Pact was already a significant force, the Soviet Union in particular. For this, and the next Post, I will cover the Soviet and NATO strategic inventory, which was being modernised by both the Warsaw Pact and NATO.

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Soviet Typhoon Class submarine under way. 

Apart from the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in their Strategic arsenal, both the Soviet Union and NATO had a second arm that could be used to initiate a nuclear strike, Submarine launched Ballistic Missiles, SLBMs. What made these particularly important was their survivability and their ability to initiate a retaliatory strike. Should wither the Soviets, or NATO for that matter, decide to launch a massive nuclear strike that could potentially wipe out all fixed ICBM sites, all countries with SLBMs would be in a position to strike back. The ‘Assured Mutual Destruction’ concept.

The Soviet Union had 2 x H-II SSBN (SSBN Ballistic Missile carrying submarine) (3 x SS-N-5), 1 x H-III  SSBN (6 x SS-N-8), 23 x Y-I SSBN (16 x SS-N-6), 1 x Y-II (12 x SS-N-17), 18 x D-I SSBN (12 x SS-N-8), 4 x D-II SSBN (16 x SS-N-8), 14 x D-III SSBN (16 x SS-N-18) and 2 x Typhoon SSBN (20 x SS-N-20). Four more Typhoons were under construction.

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A Russian Yankee Class SSBN, K-219.

The above is the Yankee Class SSBN. K-219 was lost at sea after  in 1986, after an explosion and fire onboard. This was the first Soviet submarine to have thermonuclear firepower comparable with their American and British counterparts.

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The above is a Delta Class SSBN, a D-IV. The time period I am covering this was only in the building phase.

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Delta II SSBN

The Delta III was equipped with a new battle management system, the Almaz-BDR, for the fire control of torpedoes in deep water. This was the first Soviet submarine that could launch any number of missiles in a single salvo and also the first to carry ballistic missiles with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). Each of the 16 missiles could carry 3-7 MIRVs.

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Typhoon Class SSBN, the largest class of submarine ever built with a displacement of 48,000 tons.

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These latest Russian submarines could patrol under the icecap and surface to launch their missiles, negating the need to transit the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom, GIUK, gap.

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The US, UK and France also possessed SSBNs

US – 4 x Ohio SSBN (24 x Trident) 7 x Ohio on order, 19 x Lafayette SSBN (16 x Poseidon) and 12 x Franklin Class SSBN (16 x Trident).

UK – 4 x Resolution Class SSBN (16 x Polaris A3 (3 x MIRV))

France – 4 x Redoutable Class SSBN (16 x M-20)

Ohio SSBN undergoing a conversion to an SSGN, a conventional missile submarine, in 2003.

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HMS Renown, one of four SSBNs, later replaced by the Vanguard Class of submarine, carrying Trident 2.

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The French Redoutable Class SSBN

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A Trident II missiles fires its first stage  SRB after an underwater launch from a Royal Navy Vanguard Class ballistic missile submarine.

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There were also the conventional forces lined up along the Inner German Border, the visible barrier between the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR), or better known as West and East Germany. I shall be covering their organisation and equipment over the coming months.

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Ferret Mk 5, Scout Car with (4)  Swingfire Missiles. Swingfire was an anti-tank, wire guided missile capable of destroying any armoured fighting vehicle in its day, 1965 – 1970.

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Weighing in the region of 4 1/2 tons, it travelled at a top speed of nearly 50mph. It had an armour thickness of 16mm, and a crew of 2.

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Leopard C2, Main Battle Tank.

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70mm armour, this tank was used by the Canadian Army.

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42 tons, crew of 4 and a top speed of 40mph.

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A 105mm gun was its main weapon, supported 2 x 7.62mm MGs

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This was the preferred replacement for the British Centurion as the new Chieftain was seen as too powerful for anything other than a global conflict.

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Soviet soldiers on exercise in East Berlin – East Berlin 1984

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My intention is not to portray a particular message, but just share some of my research and experiences with you.  This is the first of my new ‘Cold War’ series, supporting the writing of my new ‘Cold War’ series of novels, covering the hypothetical invasion of West Germany by the Warsaw Pact in the 80′s. ‘The Red Effect’. so keep your eyes peeled.

Photographs and Blog are copyrighted to Harvey Black

I am 10,000 words into the first novel of my new ‘Cold War’ series. There will be three books in total, covering the hypothetical invasion of West Germany, the Federal Republic of Germany, by the Warsaw Pact in the mid 1980′s. Book 1, ‘The Red Effect’, will encompass the intelligence build up leading to the Warsaw Pact strike against the NATO forces lined up against them.

The Cold War era started very soon after the end of the second world war, when the communist east, led by the Soviet Union, and the Western world, led by the United States and its NATO allies, faced each across what became known as the ‘Iron Curtain’.

.

The capital of Germany, Berlin, was divided into four Sectors. The consequence being, that the three Western Allied powers now controlled territory deep within the Soviet Union Zone of Germany.

Over time, the tensions between the four Allied powers increased, eventually resulting in the Berlin blockade in 1948, when the Soviets attempted to starve West Berlin into submission and force the other three Allied powers out. This failed and the Soviets eventually relented, but an ever-increasing number of East Germans fled to the West; between 150,000 and 300,000 a year during 1951-1953. As a consequence restrictions were placed on movement between the divided country. From 1961, the border was closed and Berlin completely encircled, first by barbed wire, then bricks and finally a concrete wall, along with the infamous ‘death strip’.

Access was now restricted between Berlin and the West. A wall, 124 mile miles in length, was placed around the three sectors of West Berlin, cutting off the city from the rest of the world.

The badly damaged Reichstag. Berlin 1945

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An Iconic picture of the face-off between the West and the East.  The Cold War starts – October 1961

Another iconic picture of a GDR Border Guard fleeing across the barbed wire to the West -Berlin 1961

The Reichstag, showing the Berlin Wall in situ behind it. – West Berlin 1981.

I shall cover various aspects of the two opposing forces, providing the backdrop and background information in preparation for the release of my three novels. In the meantime, you could always read my WW2 series, Devils with Wings.

In 1984/85, the Warsaw Pact was already a significant force, the Soviet Union in particular. For this, and the next Post, I will cover the Soviet and NATO strategic inventory, which was being modernised by both the Warsaw Pact and NATO.

SS-19. In 1984/5, the Soviet Union had some 360 of these ICBM’s (Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles), most of them of the mod. 3 variety, with 6 MIRV’s (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles), basically multiple nuclear warheads. 

The SS-19, deployed in 1982, was 27 metres in length, 2.5 metres wide and weighed in excess of 100,000 kilograms. It had a two-stage liquid fuel propulsion system with a PBV (Post-Boost Vehicle for a hot launch) which gave it a range of up to 10,000 kilometres. Mod 3 would carry a 550 kiloton yield (MIRV), whereas the Mod 2, would carry a 5 megaton yield warhead.

Apart from the SS-19′s, the most modern ICBM in their armoury, the Soviet Union had 520 x SS-11, 60 x SS-13, 150 x SS-17 (many being deployed with 4 MIRV’s) and 308 x SS-18 (Being upgraded to carry 10 MIRV’s).

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Minuteman III missile inside its Silo, 60 miles from Grand Forks Air Base, late 1980.

NATO too, in particular the United States, modernised their nuclear arsenal in the race to reach a state of ‘mutual assured destruction’. NATOs strategy was dependent on the Soviet Union believing that NATO would respond with an all out, devastating nuclear response to any aggressive moves they might make, whether Nuclear or Conventional. The focus very much on the Iron Curtain hot spot that stretched along the Inner German Border, although there were many incidents that came close to inciting a nuclear exchange.

NATO’s strategic forces (I shall cover bombers and submarines at a later date) were underpinned by the United Staes, United Kingdom and France. The US had 450 x LGM-30F (minuteman II), 550 x LGM-30G with 3 MIRV (minuteman III) and 37 x Titan 2, phasing out by the end of 1987.

A minuteman III missile being launched. An ICBM, with a three-stage power plant, consisting of three solid-propellant rocket motors; first stage – Thiokol; second stage – Aerojet-General; third stage – United Technologies Chemical Systems Division.

With a height of 18 metres, diameter of just under 2 metres it weighed significantly less than the SS-19, at 36,000 kilograms. But it still had a range of over 6,000 miles and could travel at a speed in excess of 15,000 mph, Mach 23! It carried a warhead of  170 kilotons, 350 kilotons or up to 450 kilotons. With three MIRV’s, this was capable of a significant punch.

The British and French nuclear forces were very much submarine and air launched (apart from tactical nuclear weapons), I will cover those at a later date.

There were also the conventional forces lined up along the Inner German Border, the visible barrier between the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR), or better known as West and East Germany. I shall be covering their organisation and equipment over the coming months.

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The T-62 might be an old tank, but in the early days it was the mainstay of the Soviet Army.

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Weighing in the region of 40 tons, it could still travel at a top speed of nearly 50mph with its V-12, 38 litre engine.

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This one, on display in the Bovington Tank Museum,  was captured from the Iraqi forces during the 1991 Gulf War.

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Infrared searchlight on the right of the turret, next to the 115mm main gun.

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These days the Infrared could easily be detected by modern equipment.

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A Soviet T-62 in East Berlin.  - East Berlin, 1984

t-54/55 on parade – East Berlin 1984

Although it can be classed as an insignificant tank, and maybe not even referred to as a Main Battle Tank, when up against T-64′s, T-72′s and T-80′s, it is still very much in use across the world. One thing I would like to point out, in 1984/5, the Soviet Union had 35,000 T-54/55/62′s in service. The British Army at that time had less than a 1,000 MBTs. Quality versus quantity? Would we have had enough ammunition?

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My intention is not to portray a particular message, but just share some of my research and experiences with you.  This is the first of my new ‘Cold War’ series, supporting the writing of my new ‘Cold War’ series of novels, covering the hypothetical invasion of West Germany by the Warsaw Pact in the 80′s. ‘The Red Effect’. so keep your eyes peeled.

Photographs are copyrighted to Harvey Black

»Read article

The recent successful launch of Russia’s RSM-56 Bulava (NATO code name SS-NX-30) Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) may finally mark a turning point for this troubled weapons system.

On June 28, a Bulava left a submerged next-generation Borey-class submarine, the Yuri Dolgoruky, and flew 6,000 kilometers from the White Sea to the Kura test range in Russia’s Far East Kamchatka region. Three days later, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that the Bulava will enter into serial production next year. Russian military sources indicated that they would conduct four additional tests of the missile before placing the Bulava into service by the end of 2011.

The Bulava (Russian: Булава; “mace” in English) is designed to carry 10 maneuverable and independently targeted (MIRVed) nuclear warheads, with a destructive power of some 100-150 kilotons each, a maximum range of some 8,000 kilometers. On paper, the Bulava’s advanced missile defense countermeasures, solid-fuel propellant, small size, light weight, rapid speed, maneuverability, and other capabilities make it a superior deterrent to anything in Russia’s existing SLBM arsenal.

Unfortunately, the Bulava’s terrible test record has resulted in its remaining a paper system for years beyond 2006, its originally scheduled date for entering into service. More than half of the missile’s 15 test launches failed, sometimes spectacularly.

The repeated failures of the Bulava test flights proved an embarrassment for the Russian defense industry at a time when the Russian government was trying to reestablish Moscow’s claims to great power status.

The Bulava represents one of the few major Russian weapons systems developed after the Soviet Union’s collapse. It is probably also the most expensive military research and development program in Russian history. One experienced Russian analyst estimates that the Bulava, combined with the new Borey-class submarine to launch it, recently consumed 40% of Russia’s defense budget.

The Baluva’s problems result from two primary factors. The first is the mistaken if understandable Russian government decision to award the original contract to the wrong design firm and then follows its bad advice. The second was more serious mistake of continuing weaknesses in Russia’s military-industrial complex, especially production, quality control, and systems integration problems.

In 1998, the Russian Security Council awarded a development contract for a new SLBM to the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT), led by the well-respected missile-designer, Yuri Solomonov, after the government had abandoned its program to develop an earlier SLBM, the SS-NX-28 (D-19M) Bark. The Bark, designed by the rival Makeyev Design Bureau, had experienced three successive failures during test launches and its development costs were soaring.

Yet, while the MITT had earlier developed the successful ground-based RT-2PM Topol (SS-25 Sickle) and the RT-2PMU Topol-M (SS-27) land-based ICBMs, it had never built a SLBM. Solomonov argued that his team could save considerable time and money (both in short supply because of the Bark debacle) by incorporating many of the innovative features already developed for the Topol-M into the Bulava program.

The most important innovations were the missile’s ability to accelerate rapidly soon after launch, a capacity designed to overcome any U.S. post-boost phase missile defenses.

The Russian government heeded Solomonov’s advice regarding the Bulava. Russia’s budgetary woes in the 1990s caused policymakers to try to save money by standardizing the research and development of the production of ballistic missiles, regardless of whether they were land-based or launched at sea.

The design of this three-staged SLBM is similar though not identical to the Topol-M. Russian officials also followed Solomonov’s recommendation to proceed rapidly to sea-based trials rather than conduct extensive initial land-based testing. Such “ground testing”—especially sophisticated computer-aided modeling of a missile or other aerospace vehicle that could locate potential flaws before conducting an expensive and, if failed, embarrassing test flight—is standard procedure for American and European missile design firms, but is rarer in Russia due to the lack of modern infrastructure and funding.

The intent was to accelerate the Bulava’s deployment and minimize its development costs, which had begun to exceed the initial budget. These government decisions and development shortcuts may have contributed to the missile’s recent problems.

Besides the overly ambitious design schedule, problems of production, quality control, and systems integration—coordinating the input of the dozens of independent subcontractors involved—was as a major reason for the Bulava’s difficulties. The large number of failures was due to a variety of problems rather than a single cause, making it difficult for the designers to correct the problem. Some failures affected the first stage, others occurred later in flight, while some difficulties arose even before launch. It looks as if different subcontractors provided defective equipment or material or inadequate service for many of the tests, meaning that correcting the defect from the previous launch did not prevent different problems from arising the next trial launch.

Furthermore, the Votkinsk Plant State Production Association where the missile was assembled and manufactured was also experiencing poor industrial production standards, quality control, and obsolete equipment. A factory manager at the Votkinsk plant stated on average 83% of the equipment was worn out and that 50 billion rubles were needed through 2020 for modernizing the factory’s equipment. Votkinsk also suffered from a lack of young specialists to replace the experienced staff who was retiring without mentoring a team of successors.

More generally, the design of the Bulava has to be compromised because the decline in Russia’s military-industrial base meant that many desired parts were no longer available. Vladimir Vysostsky, a senior Russian Navy official, officially explained Bulava’s issues as the consequence of a “deep, elementary dysfunction in the technical industry for… strategic missiles.” C.H. Kovalyova, the creator of the Akula submarine, has said that a lack of certain necessary support structures is contributed to Bulava’s mishaps.

Successive failures due to a variety of problems led an increasing number of Russian defense analysts and officials to consider abandoning the project despite the 100 billion rubles already spent on the system.

Nonetheless, the Russian government felt it had to persist with the Bulava because the weapon has been designed to work with Russia’s next-generation Borey-class (Project 955) ballistic missile launching submarine (SSBN). Since 1996, the nuclear-powered Borey has been the only strategic submarine under production in Russia. The Russian Navy has been waiting impatiently for these boats since the existing fleet of Delta and Typhoon SSBNs are exhausting their service lives as they undertake their so-called “deterrence cruises” through the Arctic and Pacific Oceans.

One Project 941 Akula-class Typhoon, the Dmitriy Donskoy, has been serving as a specially modified test platform for most of the Bulava launches pending completion of the first Borey-class ship. The first Borey-class SSBN, the Yury Dolgoruky, has begun sea trials and conducted the successful June 28 launch. The second, the Alexander Nevsky, is at the final stages of construction at the Sevmash Machine Building Enterprise shipyard in northern Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense plans to build at least six additional Borey ships, with the third and fourth also already under construction at Sevmash. Although the Yuri Dolgoruky is designed to carry as many as 12 Bulava SLBMs, the next three Borey ships will have 16 launch tubes able to accommodate the Bulava missile.

The Russian military is considering designing the remaining four Borey SSBNs to launch as many as 20 Bulavas. The Russian government plans to manufacture at least 150 Bulava SLBMs. The Russian military intends the Borey-Bulava combination to serve as the foundation of Russia’s nuclear triad until 2040. If the Bulava does not work, these billion-dollar Boreys will have nothing to fire.

The most popular alternative proposal was to retrofit the Borey to carry the R-29RM Sineva-class ballistic missile, another recently developed Russian SLBM. Although not as advanced as Bulava (the Sineva uses liquid rather than solid fuel and lacks some of Bulava’s defensive capabilities), Sineva is a capable modern missile that has an impressive launch record.

Yet, fitting the Borei to carry Sineva missiles would be expensive and time-consuming. Although Russian government and academic experts supporting the government’s general military reform program argue that their country faces no immediate military threat and therefore has time to undertake a comprehensive if challenging defense restructuring, the Russian military has steadfastly rejected the Sineva option or other alternatives.

Russian defense managers may have recalled Soviet experience when, in some cases, Russian weapons that had a long and tortuous development process ended up working well despite their early struggles. The R39 (SS-N-20 “Sturgeon”) was a Soviet SLBM project which began development in 1971, failed more than half its initial test flights, and was stuck in development for 12 years. Nevertheless, its problems were eventually worked out and the R39 served well in the Soviet and Russian Navy until 2004. The fact that the Bulava introduces path-breaking technologies into Russia’s SLBM force made that country’s defense managers expect that there would be many initial test failures. As Vice Admiral Oleg Burtsev wrote in July 2009: “Bulava is a new rocket; in the course of its development we will encounter various setbacks… nothing new happens quickly.”

Another theoretical option would be for Russia to get out of the nuclear weapons business entirely. Yet, eliminating nuclear weapons enjoys little support among the Russian national security elite, who see Russia’s nuclear weapons as their ultimate instrument of defense, deterrence, and global influence.

Shortly after NATO commenced bombing Libya, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made a special trip to the Votkinsk factory where the Bulava is produced. Putin used the occasion to remind its workers that Russia’s nuclear weapons shielded their country against a similar attack by Western powers. In his words, “they bombed Belgrade, Bush started a war in Afghanistan, then under a pretext, an entirely lying pretext, started a war in Iraq, liquidated the whole Iraqi leadership, now they’ve started to bomb Libya… today’s situation once again confirms the correctness of what we are doing to strengthen the defense capabilities of our country, and the new program of governmental arms-building is intended to achieve this.”

Although Russian designers may finally have gotten the Borey-Bulava combination to work, this success may prove exceptional. The Russian government devoted enormous sums to this one very important project, and cannot undertake a comparable effort with all its desired military systems. This limitation partly explains why Serdykov had to deny recent media reports that the Russian government planned to build an aircraft carrier in the next decade.

It also explains why Russian leaders are willing to buy expensive foreign weapons systems like the Mistral-class amphibious assault ship. Russian defense companies, having not yet recovered from the traumatic breakup of the Soviet-era military-industrial complex, are still incapable of building such a complex weapons system in a timely manner.

SOURCE: Second Line of Defense

http://www.sldinfo.com/?p=20866

Baby Matthew is Les Claypool’s nephew who was diagnosed with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) only two months into his life. Being the good uncle Les is, a benefit show with MIRV was organized in order to raise money for ridiculously expensive medical costs.

One morning, a few weeks back, I saw the following post on Primus’s Facebook: “Tickets on sale today at 10AM for the Benefit show featuring Primus & MIRV at the Catalyst Friday March 18th.” AWESOME! I gave Ben a call, who, unless he has school or…well I guess just school, doesn’t normally get out of bed until at least 11:00AM.

“…ugh…hello?”
“DUDE! Primus tickets. Less than an hour. I’m coming over.”
“WHAT?!…ok…”

I got to his house with about 15 minutes to spare. Immediately at 10:00AM, the tickets were purchased and we were on for the 18th.

The day of the concert snuck up on us for sure. We both had work and school that whole week and it had been at least a few years since we last saw Primus or any of Claypool’s incarnations, so I don’t think the fact we were about to see Primus really hit us until the show actually started. We arrived in Santa Cruz around 7:00PM and already the line in front of the building was fairly long, so rather than idling in the rain like chumps, we somehow figured walking around in the rain for a bit would be a better option. Don’t question our logic. Once we decided Santa Cruz feels like a less shitty version of Berkeley, we got in line to wait for the doors to open. After getting inside and drying off a bit, we spent a little time in the bar upstairs, played some pool, pumped about $2 worth of quarters into Marvel Vs. Capcom and Open Tee machines just to find out they didn’t work (“FUCK THAT…beer me!”), and then waited for the show to start. Dear management at the Catalyst: If you read this, get the Marvel Vs. Capcom machine fixed because you will DEFINITELY make money off of it.

The crowds at larger shows never cease to amaze me, as they always seem to bring out some of the most interesting people. Primus fans are the cream of the crop; often times you get people dressed up in wacky outfits, lots of fun top hats, helmets, a few frog and pig masks…very entertaining.

The show started with San Francisco-based M.I.R.V. Out of every band I’ve seen play with Primus, they probably fit the bill the best. The sheer amount of skill, sound, lyrics, and just how weird they are with some well written songs about Chupacabras, mad scientists, and a great solo where Marc “Mirv” Haggard is screaming the notes he’s playing on guitar, add up to a band you must see live sometime.

Next was Primus. After a lot of screaming and hearing a few “PRIMUS SUCKS!” from the crowd, they emerged from backstage. After a short intro, they immediately go into “Pudding Time”. The crowd comes alive, the pit opens up, everyone is jumping around, and I remembered exactly why we rushed to buy those tickets: Primus. Is. Awesome.

After “Pudding Time”, Les retreated backstage for a moment and came back out with a pig mask and his electric stand-up bass. After Les gave a short speech about possibly making history with something called a “Waltz Pit”, they played “Seas of Cheese” and “Here Come the Bastards”. Throughout the entire show, several songs were turned into lengthy jam sessions, which were basically musical orgies for my ears. Other songs included “Ground Hogs Day”, “Sgt. Baker”, “Over the Falls”, “Those Damn Blue Collar Tweekers”, “My Name is Mud”,  “Harold of the Rocks”, and an awesome new song played after Les explained he hates fishing, called “Salmon Man”. As a fishing enthusiast, I call bullshit on that, Les.

Later on, we realized just how unique the set list was. Common songs you’d expect to see live such as “Mr. Krinkle”, “Tommy the Cat”, and “John the Fisherman” (more fishing songs, right Les?) were not played. After finishing the set with an epic encore of “Frizzle Fry”, we exited the venue (our minds completely blown) back outside into the pouring rain and drove home. I’ve been to a lot of concerts, seen a lot of bands, and I don’t know if it’s just how different they are, their skill, or maybe how long they’ve been around, but they really don’t make bands like Primus and M.I.R.V. anymore.

Read more about baby Matthew and donate:
http://www.babymatthew.org/

-Sean Moore

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Russia’s state arms procurement program through 2020 provides for the development of a new heavy ballistic missile, a leading missile designer said on Monday.

The final decision should be made in 2012-13 by the expert community, not solely the Defense Ministry, said Yury Solomonov of the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT), the developer of the troubled Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile.
“This matter is beyond the Defense Ministry’s competence. It is a matter of state importance,” he said.

“Heavy ICBM” refers to a class of missiles with a heavy throw weight between five and nine metric tons and a length of over 35 meters, capable of delivering a large number of warheads in a single MIRV missile.

Karakayev said all newly deployed mobile Topol-Ms will be the MIRVed (RS-24 / Yars) variant rather than single-warhead missiles.  He said a sixth silo-based Topol-M regiment will go on combat duty at Tatishchevo this month, and more silo-based deployments will occur next year.

Karakayev also said:

“To support the required balance of forces in carrying out the mission of nuclear deterrence, qualitative improvement of the components of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces [SYaS or СЯС] is required.  Russia’s missile industry will continue development of new missile systems, including new technical solutions incorporated within missile systems of the ‘Topol-M’ type.”

The media repeated ITAR-TASS to the effect that most experts think this means Moscow will develop a heavy silo-based ICBM to replace Russia’s remaining ‘heavies’ – UR-100NUTTKh (SS-19 / Stiletto) and R-36M2 (RS-20V or Voyevoda, SS-18 / Satan Mod 6).

Rossiyskaya gazeta added that 10,000 military and 8,000 civilian posts in the RVSN had been cut over the past 5 years.  But further cuts in RVSN armies, divisions, and regiments aren’t anticipated.

The achievements of the US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the signing of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) are the first steps towards President Obama’s stated goal of a nuclear free world. However limited their successes may be, their announcements signify real progress in nuclear disarmament

Only two days after the US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) Report on April 6 laid out a coherent reduction plan for US nuclear weapons, President Obama and Russian President Medvedev met in Prague to sign the new version of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). Whilst one of these is a bilateral treaty reducing the two largest nuclear arsenals in the world and the other a unilateral doctrine outlining American nuclear weapons policy, these documents have much in common. Both have been much anticipated, and have been the subject of intense debate and anticipation. As such, they have both become not merely important indicators to the international security environment and key influences on May’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, but also an important gauge of whether the Obama administration will be able to achieve its lofty foreign policy goals whilst dealing with so many domestic issues. But now that they have been delivered they must be evaluated for what they actually achieve.

Obama’s Nuclear Agenda

Twelve months ago, when the newly-elected American President gave a speech in Prague stating his goal of eventual nuclear disarmament, a message was clearly sent identifying nuclear weapons as one of his flagship policy areas. However, as his pledge to negotiate a New START treaty by the end of 2009 was not delivered, and the date of the NPR Report slipped from December to February and then further and further into 2010, faith in President Obama’s ability to provide leadership on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament began to wane. To some it appeared that bitter domestic battles and the loss of a super-majority in the Senate were consuming the political capital required to deliver such significant goals, potentially leaving the President weakened and unable to gain the leverage necessary to achieve change at either national or international level. As negotiations stalled, the high hopes originally held for the New START treaty and for a successful outcome to the inevitable struggle between the White House and the Department of Defense over the NPR faded. Giving way instead to fears that these processes would be respectively hamstrung by arguments over missile defence in Europe and inertia over the role of nuclear weapons in US security.

The sudden and rapid acceleration of these recent developments clearly signals President Obama’s commitment to nuclear disarmament, and that his attention has now returned to the issue. The announcement of a breakthrough in US-Russia negotiations and an agreement of a treaty text came on 26 March, only days after the signing of the contentious Healthcare Reform Bill. Just over a week after these achievements came the launch of the NPR Report, followed by the signing of the treaty in Prague. This alone would be enough to show that the President retained his focus on the nuclear agenda – laid out in last year’s speech in the same city – but is further bolstered by the reports of his personal involvement in the negotiation process via a series of telephone calls to his Russian counterpart at the height of the domestic tussles. However, achieving agreement on these documents would hardly be a success if their contents did not contribute to the Prague disarmament agenda. On that score, both of these documents successfully manage to make multiple modest advances.

New START

New START reduces the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals from 2,200 warheads to 1,550, and reduces the number of launchers (ICBMs, SLBMs and Heavy Bombers) to a total of 800 with up to 700 of these deployed. This is a modest, but welcome, reduction in warheads that is more significant in maintaining momentum towards further disarmament. Despite representing a claimed cut of 30 per cent from the upper warhead limit of the Moscow Treaty, the actual post-reduction total will be much larger than the figure of 1,550, owing to the counting rules of the Treaty – each bomber counts as carrying only one warhead no matter how many it may actually be loaded with. More important are the issues not addressed by the Treaty. Missile defence is not subject to control despite Russian pressure to include such technology, although the preamble contains the statement ‘Recognizing … that current strategic defensive arms do not undermine the viability and effectiveness of the strategic offensive arms of the Parties’. Moreover, the treaty makes special effort to create a strict divide between missile defence and offensive missile capabilities. However, the Treaty also includes a clause for withdrawal under ‘exceptional circumstances’, which the Russian government has stated is a reference to any future development of US missile defence ‘quantitatively or qualitatively… in such a way that threatens the potential of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation’.[i] Nor are planned conventional ballistic missile arms subject to restrictions, at least according to the original announcement by the US State Department. These compromises and hard-won omissions from the Treaty are crucial, as they minimise the potential for resistance to ratification from the US Senate.

The NPR

A range of policy declarations made by the NPR compliment the concrete reductions contained within New START. Key amongst these is the stated aim of presenting a roadmap towards nuclear disarmament. Substance towards this overarching goal is provided by a number of important decisions within the NPR

The issuing of the Negative Security Assurances (NSAs) pledging not to use nuclear weapons against Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) parties ‘in compliance’ with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is not new, but this position is strengthened considerably in the Obama NPR. Firstly, by abandoning the Bush administration’s ambiguity over whether nuclear weapons would be used in response to a chemical or biological weapon attack. This NPR clearly states that nuclear weapons will not be used against NNWS in any situation, rather relying on conventional forces to deter such attacks. However, it stops short of making a full pledge of ‘No First Use’, clearly declaring that there are a narrow set of circumstances in which the use of nuclear weapons is acceptable following a chemical or biological attack by a state either in possession of nuclear weapons, or not in compliance with the NPT. Secondly, the ‘Warsaw Pact Clause’, outlining the possibility of using nuclear weapons against states that are in alliance with nuclear-armed states, has been removed. This clause was originally contained in the 1995 NSA declaration to the UN General Assembly and in all subsequent pledges. The removal of this phrase within the NSA symbolises the desire to move away from the ‘Cold War thinking’ that has dominated nuclear strategy until now. The pledge to de-MIRV the ICBM force, reducing the number of warheads on each missile from three to one, is important as a key reduction in capability, and the decision to retire the nuclear-armed Tomahawk cruise missile will also be welcomed by many.

Small steps

The reasoning behind each decision in the NPR report is discussed and transparently explained in the context of taking a step along the road to disarmament, but without taking any potentially destabilising risks. This level of openness is admirable, but it is also important to highlight that both of these documents are modest steps along this path. There are many disappointments for those who may have hoped for more radical policy changes. The New START’s numerical cuts in warhead numbers are relatively conservative and do little to reduce capabilities, though it is hoped that further reductions can be made in the near future. There is also the NPR’s decision to maintain all three ‘legs’ of the nuclear triad. Some strategists have mooted the possible removal of the long-range bomber from the nuclear arsenal, but this capability is confirmed as the remaining part of the nuclear force for the foreseeable future and the decision has been made to proceed with the life extension programme for the B-61 gravity bomb. [ii] Europeans hoping for US leadership on the issue of NATO’s shared tactical nuclear weapons capability – currently based in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkey and the Netherlands – will be disappointed by the short mention in the NPR, firmly placing the onus for any decision on the shoulders of this year’s new NATO Strategic Concept. The lack of movement towards reducing alert levels of the remaining nuclear forces will concern others, as will the perceived ‘glossing over’ of concerns over the strategic impact of missile defences and conventional ballistic missiles.

However, to focus on these points would be to neglect the role of these achievements as part of the overall strategy. In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2009, President Obama pledged to ‘complete a Nuclear Posture Review that opens the door to deeper cuts, and reduces the role of nuclear weapons’.[iii] This is precisely what has been achieved by this combination of the New START and the Nuclear Posture Review. Neither of these are revolutionary in themselves, but nor are they intended to be. Given both the political realities of the US and the pressures of the international security environment, pushing too far too soon on any one front could have proven disastrous to the initiative that President Obama began last year in Prague. Instead, by making progress and compromises across a number of issues, the policy and capability changes are kept palatable to all audiences, whilst the entire debate moves forward as a whole and provides the foundations for further advances. In this context, these achievements should be recognised for what they are: the delayed small steps at the beginning of the long road to stable nuclear disarmament.

The views expressed above are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those of RUSI

Are you ready?

Are you ready?

Alright, let’s get it on!

Welcome back cats and kittens.  Its time once again for you take a stroll around the web with your favorite bunch of geeks.

Don’t worry.  We won’t send you alone into those scary corners of the cyber world.  Oh no, as always we’ll provide you with a travelling companion sure to make the trip much more enjoyable.

Please say hello to this week’s cheesecake, Busy Philipps.

I can hear some of you already.

What the…?

Who the…?

Ms. Philipps got her first taste of fame as freak bad girl, Kim Kelly, on the late and lamented Freaks and Geeks.  Since then she’s worked pretty steadily with appearances on ER, Entourage, White Chicks and Made of Honor.  She can currently be found plying her craft on ABC’s Cougar Town.

And that my dear friends is what got her this week’s nod.  In a week with not much new to watch on television, the wife and I played catch up on some DVR’ed programming, including a nearly season length Cougar Town marathon.  She that sticks last sticks best I suppose.

And FYI, she also co-wrote Blades of Glory for which Jon Heder will be forever grateful.

On with the links.

 The Mayor of Parts Unknown is back.

Joss Whedon to direct The Mighty Avengers?  I just died a little bit inside.

WE’VE GOT COMPANY!

I think I wrote a story like this in 8th grade.

How a sandwich makes you its bitch in 11 easy steps.

Ahoy Satan!

Yes, we too have  a heart.

MIRV and ABM…a laugh riot with policy and booze!!

Celebrate, the Rocky Mountain Way.

A comic genius.

RIP Peter Steele, 48.

David’s Iraq deployment blog.

Conan O’Brien headed to TBS.  Interesting…

Disturbing ad for personal lube. (Give it a second)

Why Tracy Morgan hates Tobey Maguire.

Five details wireless companies don’t want you to know when choosing a plan.

This year’s top 10 banned books.

Stay classy Philly Phan.

How is it that Jon Stewart remains the lone sane voice in American politic discourse?

Princess Leia and Lara Croft in a snowball fight.  You know you want to watch.

This just in!

Commentary:  The Movie.

WWE Conspiracy Theory with Jesse Ventura.

An interview with Matt Parker and Trey Stone regarding South Park’s (great) 200th episode.

Hard to believe Steven Seagal is a scumbag isn’t it?

And finally, robots learn tai chi.  Translation?  Supreme Ultimate Fist.  Skynet is pleased.

A link to the Wikipedia entry on MIRVs

Some other photos I found. Typical internet stuff

India’s Agni II missile is on display while at a rehearsal for the Republic Day Parade in New Delhi in this Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2002 file photo. India successfully test fired Thursday, April 12, 2007 a new missile, Agni III, capable of carrying nuclear warheads across much of Asia and the Middle East, a defense ministry spokesman said. (AP Photo/Ajit Kumar, File)

But each warhead in an MIRV must impact within 40 metres of its target. With such high accuracies, even small nuclear warheads are sufficient for the job.

Strategic planners consider MIRVs essential, given India’s declared “no first use” nuclear policy. Even after an enemy has hit India with a full-fledged nuclear strike, destroying or incapacitating much of the strategic arsenal, a handful of surviving Indian missiles must be capable of retaliating with massive and unacceptable damage. Multiple warheads on a handful of Agni-5 missiles would constitute such a capability.

I’m not meaning to point fingers at the Tdot because I live there now and I thoroughly enjoy heading out to shows and festivals there. It is an inspiring and exciting city. I am pointing all of my fingers at all of us, I guess? I had no idea the theatre community in the Prairies so closely resembled the one by the ocean’s shore…because I have never been here obviously and have never met anyone from here in Halifax, or Toronto. (Save Hope, AD of Sarasvati Productions, who pretty much rocks my world for giving me the yes my show needed and bringing me here and putting on a kick-ass festival…OH and Lee and Mauralea who taught me in Halifax, but by the time they taught me they had been away from Winnipeg for many years and living in NS.)

Blather, I am rambling. YES we all need to embrace our individual cities, cultures, provinces, etcetera. But my GOD it is just THEATRE can’t we all get along, and be friends?? Our challenge now is finding a way to perhaps tour more shows, or generate audiences from across the country, bringing people to where they would love to be, …or maybe more time can be spent workshopping and delving into pieces, brightening them up, polishing them off and getting scripts mounted across the country…

‘Hey Ottawa, check out this cool show out of Sackville, NB! Hey Calgary, check out this amazing Toronto improv group! Whaddup Winnipeg, here’s a pretty rad show from Halifax. Oh hey, St. John’s, have this new-age technical experiment piece from Vancouver.” ETCETERA ETCETERA.

How, how, how can we stop pitting cities against each other, and instead transfuse theatre from one place to the next? To CONNECT our whole COUNTRY, to stop feeling immobile, or like we all have to be in Toronto, or shunning out other cities or isolating ourselves to one spot like an angsty teenager who locks themselves in their room? IT’S ART, IT’S THERE TO MAKE LIFE LESS BLAND AND DULL AND HORRIFYING. Do we not create theatre to connect, to escape, to reflect, to FEEL LESS ALONE? I felt today that the artists in Manitoba want to share their work with other people (not just other artists) the same way the people of Nova Scotia do, the way many small-but-mighty groups probably feel. And shouldn’t we be open and welcoming to the things that come from far away?

Dear everyone in Canadian Theatre,
treat others the way you would like to be treated.

Dear Winnipeg,
you guys rock my world.

Dear anyone who read this,
I realize it’s just a lot of questions and pretty non-sensical. I’m running on tofu and peanut butter m&ms and so not enough sleep.

Loved that quote in a nook of the AGO.

Also a big fan of Mark Dion’s polar bear photographs (mostly because I am a polar bear fan.)

Do Ho Su’s bathroom was also amazing. Complete 3-d lavatory from nylon.

N.E. THING CO was my kind of art…fecicious and whimsical and ribbons and sodas and call-back jokes and, well, it was the sixties, man.

Here’s my stream of consciences that I wrote post-visit, in the gift shop:
I am at the AGO right now thinking about Andy’s Elvis, Roald Dahl books I wish weren’t in my attic somewhere, Degas’ ballerinas on my show’s poster thanks to the World’s best dramatury c/o my [step]sister, TO CAPTURE LIGHT and lost, under-appreciated artists, finger paints, how my lower back hurts, wanting Kelin to teach me to paint, my relephant necklace, “world’s first twitter”, tarp art, how poor I am, my scene study, etch-a-sketch, magna doodle, those filmy-scratchy books, Gina’s paint by numbers…

Spur of the moment magic –> You can’t plan magic, if you do, it’s just trickery.

so HOME; let’s discuss home.
thursday lesley and i landed and mom, dad and irma were there at the airport. had dinner with mom, dad, irma, my god-mother, her daughter, and my grandparents. hilarious. Allison came over later, for at midnight she turned 19 and we got all drunked up and went dancing at Tribecca.

KATE joined us as well to do some damage.

highlights include epic photo taking with allison, and getting in trouble for dancing on a chair.

friday after a bike ride where i almost wept because it felt so, so good to cycle again, and a massage/chiropractor apointment (my neck is a rock. thanks, toronto.) i hosted our first druncheon. “our” meaning the bestest of ladies, claire, jessica, lesley, slaney and falvey. (missed out on gina, though…)

i just adore them. what a festival of cupcake sandwiches, meatless balls, hours upon hours of drinking sangria…and classic conversation ranging from john mccain to kittens inspired by kittens.

friday night was rhys and andrea’s house-warming party which means i got pretty faded and marveled at all of the wonderful people i missed who seemed happy to see me. (valentina and i decided we needed to make up for all the hugs we missed out on while i’ve been away so throughout the night one of us would yell “SPONTANEOUS HUG!” and we’d embrace. decadent!!)

saturday i biked to meet lesley at the market where we saw mary-dan playing the fiddle, robyn selling vegetables, and jackie torrens being awesome. wired monk for muffins, then to the theatre school where i grew up to sit with jessica and loiter as we have done for the last 6 years of our life. saw many a familar, beautiful, smoochable face.

then i biked to the ferry and went on the ferry to dirty dee to see INTO THE WOODS and got to watch beautiful people on stage and laugh my fool head off with keelin. sushi with dad followed, then to KERRI’S, who was one of my room-mates last year. her cousins and friends who i became friends with last year came over. claire came, too, and kate leth with david bowie make-up. adrian brought tequila.

i would tell you about the rest of the night but i honestly don’t remember much and it freaks me out. i know once we went out to RETRO NIGHT we met up with some of my friends from high school, lesley and her cousin, and i danced the night away with a stranger. but seriously. i was a wreck and don’t think i’ll be drinking for a long, long time.

sunday mother’s day so OBVIOUSLY had brunch with my hero martha irving and my other hero maddy, psuedo sister poet. (martha’s daughter.) hero-licious. falafel and eggs, pancake good size, a fort of menus and salt shakers, um, and probably the classiest gift i have ever received. a clutch that held a beautiful painted bracelet and hanky!! i love them so, so much.

mom and irma and i went to see a play in the early evening that was soooo nova scotian i hurt from smiling at it. then mom and i had thai food, and i hung out with my soul mate kelin in the second cup on spring garden with tea and mike&ikes. i got home and convinced etta to come over for an impromptu hang-out at 11pm, and fell asleep happy and heart warmed, my last night of 19.

monday; my birthday! rode my bike to dartmouth with sarah dee!

we went to see the house her & her boyfriend just bought, then we had tea at the papier chase because it’s not halifax unless i go to the paper chase, people!! i proceeded to visit citadel high, even though i didn’t go there…but they closed my high school and so people who taught me are there now. before i even got into the building i was hugging mrs. cowan, pretty much my bff in grade 12, and mr. coats, my drama 10, 11, 12, dance 11 and poli sci 12 teacher slash improv coach (when he showed up) slash school father…siiiigh. i missed them too much! falvey met me because she goes there. how i love her.

that night was the most hysterical dinner of all time.
my mom, my dad, irma (my mom’s partner), nancy (my step-mom), pat (step-brother), both sets of grand parents, my god-parents (who are now divorced), and their daughter/my life-long friend. i am so blessed that these people can all come together despite how awkward it sounds, to be with me. and it’s not even that…everyone gets along and laughs and shares and talks and is a family.

that night i met up with gina and lesley for martinis and swedish berries at the bitter end. beams are gonna blind me. being apart from them physically hurts. it was short but (bitter) sweet. we’re all away together though…gina in the states, me in toronto and lesley in rome. (jerk.)

tuesday was my last day…micaela came over for breakfast and we made eggs and had cornbread and jam, coffee and hot chocolate and gelato. we made up for lost time and put on stupidly funny accents and she made me a huge list of bands and singers to check out. i asked her to live at my mom’s house with me in july if i go home for the summer because mom&irma will be at the cottage…we’d have a pretty wicked home together. maybe i should just marry her?? elle oh elle.

halifax ws really good for my self-esteem. it reminded me i have so many people who love me, and who i love back completly. they are all different, different people, different loves, but they are my family. i remembered how much fun i am capable of having no matter where i go. i came back to toronto feeling way less meek, way less silenced. i am pretty smitten with toronto right now, but halifax will always be home, and i am so proud.

ABM Multiple Kill Vehicle Raytheon (MKV-R)

The weapon of the future?  Nuclear-powered ballistic catapults.  The Catapults would be nailed to the decks of ships, powered by nuclear reactors and capable of launching ICBRs anywhere in the world.  That is to say, Intercontinental Ballistic Rocks.  They will rain boulders upon enemies with laser precision.  The MIRV Trebuchet is still under wraps, but promises to be even more amazing.

You’re welcome.

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