In previous posts on this blog, I’ve analysed Mike Huckabee’s position within the Republican Party and unappreciated appeal to GOP primary voters (especially in Iowa).  This all just changed.

The suspect of the recent and tragic shooting of four-police officers in Washington State is a troubled former Arkansas resident who was paroled by then Gov. Huckabee.  There’s lot to discuss here about the parole process, prejudices in the criminal justice system, recidivism rates, and retribution vs. rehabilitation, but those discussions will not happen on today’s sensationalist and simplistic “news” channels, nor in the sound-bites that pass for political debates in our election process.  Mike Huckabee, fairly or unfairly, will receive a lot of attention and a lot of blame for this awful crime.  The intensity of the blame will be increased by related issues Mitt Romney raised in the 2008 primary that attempted to portray Huckabee as soft-on-crime. 

There were certainly breakdowns throughout the criminal justice system in multiple states, whose correction could have potentially prevented this tragic outcome, but the prominence and popularity of Mike Huckabee will make him a target of potential contenders for the 2010 Republican primary who are seeking to weaken a possible top-opponent.  In light of these events, my earlier positive assessment of Huckabee’s chances needs drastic revisions and Huckabee’s 2012 campaign may have ended in November of 2009.

The web’s buzz today has been focused on the improbable run of Mitt Romney for president.  CNN’s David Frum makes the claim that Romney’s faith will not earn him the nomination of the GOP for 2012.  Though Frum’s view is accurate, I feel Romney won’t get the nomination because he is a terrible candidate who couldn’t run Massachusetts. 

Frum goes on to mention that although the church has gained substantial wins within the conservative movement, Proposition 8, they have failed to reconcile doctrinal differences that separate them from the religious powerhouses that run the GOP.  Frum explains,

Through the cultural conflicts of the past decade, Mormons and the Mormon church have played a decisive role. The church itself gave $190,000 to the fight to repeal same-sex marriage in California. Individual church members many millions more. (McClatchy newspapers have quoted estimates as big as $20 million, although that seems improbably high.)

That degree of commitment might seem to entitle you to a seat at the table. But no. The framers of the Manhattan Declaration say they “act together in obedience to the one true God, the triune God.” Mormons do not accept the concept of God as three-in-one.

CNN is not the only news organization to make this connection, The Huffington Post was quick to notice that there wasn’t a single mormon endorsement on the Manhattan Declaration.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon Church) has been leading the anti-gay marriage movement in this country for the past 14 years. They have spent tens of millions of dollars in practically every state ($30 million in California alone last year) to fight equality and to pass constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage.

So where are the Mormon representatives on this illustrious list? Are they truly backing off their longstanding opposition to gay civil rights?

To their credit, Michael Otterson, a high ranking Mormon Church official recently testified in support of the Salt Lake City ordinance that would no longer allow discrimination in employment and housing against LGBT people in Utah’s largest city. While a small step, it has been broadcast around the world. That’s because the Church, through its Public Affairs Department, got the word out — big time.

Could the LDS church truly be softening its stance on LGBT rights?  In doing so, aren’t they sabotaging, inadvertently, their best chance of getting an active member in the White House.  Which would shatter the glass ceiling for a faith that, short of two hundred years ago, was run out of the country for their controversial beliefs. 

Nonetheless, the LDS church finds itself in a tough spot; overly committed to a losing “moral” fight and whose allies don’t accept as a confident ally.  That being said, I’d love to see a Romney – Palin ticket, ensuring four more years of moderate liberalism!

[also cross-posted on AmericanGrace blog]

American Grace co-author David Campbell has an Op-Ed in today’s USA Today (with John C. Green and J. Quin Monson) entitled “Tolerance? We have a ways to go”.

The Op-Ed sizes up the chances of Republican presidential aspirant Mitt Romney in 2012 by examining public opinion regarding religious tolerance and America’s de facto “stained glass ceiling”.  Interestingly, those  most knowledgeable about Mormonism (Latter-Day Saints) were least likely to be intolerant, regardless of whether they were LDS themselves.

Read Op-Ed here.

AMERICAN GRACE: How Religion Is Reshaping Our Civic and Political Lives By David E. Campbell and Robert D. Putnam, will be published in 2010.

Just a few noteworthy news stories that have been careening around the stratosphere this week.

BREAKING NEWS:  You have to love MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell. On her television program, Andrea Mitchell Reports last week she had Republican National Committee Chairman, Michael Steele as a guest. The topic was Sarah Palin and whether she has the political acumen to run for national office. When Steele answered in the affirmative and stated that she was a “successful governor”, Mitchell stopped him in his tracks and reminded him that she quit that position halfway through her first term. Good for you, Ms. Mitchell.

THIS JUST IN:  From the “Only In Massachusetts” category we have Charlie Baker, one of two Republican candidates for governor announcing this week that he has selected an openly gay Republican running mate. You see, in the Bay State even the conservatives are liberal.

BREAKING NEWS:  The former ex-quitting CNN talk host Lou Dobbs announced on former senator Fred Thompson’s radio show last Monday that he is strongly considering running for President. Our question to Mr. Dobbs is, “President of what? Maybe the He-Man Immigrant Hating Club?” Seriously though, we really hope that he does run as a third party candidate for no other reason than to further splinter the ever dwindling Republican Party.

THIS JUST IN: Liz Cheney took a big slapdown this week. The daughter of the former Vice President and Face Shooter in Chief, Dick Cheney runs a group known as “Keep America Safe.” She released a short documentary film in which she profiles a few residents of Standish, Michigan that claim that they are against any Guantanamo Bay prisoners being held in the maximum security prison in their town. Problem is, Standish city manager Michael Moran says that the community is strongly in favor of housing the detainees so as to repopulate the prison and bring jobs back to the city. He dismissed Cheney’s efforts as, “fearmongering.” Gee, anyone surprised that a Cheney might be involved in fearmongering?

BREAKING NEWS:  Fox News was once again caught using a little fuzzy math this week. The Fox Chicago television station displayed a graph which shows that 193% of persons polled believe that Huckabee, Romney and Palin should be president. You read that correctly, 193%.

THIS JUST IN: Sherry Johnston, the mother of Levi Johnston (the once and future son-in-law of Sarah Palin) was sentenced to three years in prison as the result of her conviction for dealing Oxy-Contin. The sentence seems a little harsh. Couldn’t they just have arranged for Alaskan state trooper Mike Wooten (estranged brother-in-law of Sarah Palin) to tazer her?

BREAKING NEWS: Fox News‘ Greta Van Sasquatch had Karl Rove as a guest on her show this week. The topic of discussion was Sarah Palin’s book and both of them were gushing over the wonderful writing contained therein. Van Sasquatch then asked Rove how Palin should deal with crazy rumors like the ones surrounding the birth of baby Trigg. They both agreed that Palin handles such rumors in the best way possible which is to ignore them. That statement should lead everyone to doubt that either of them has even read the book that they were praising. Did neither Rove nor Van Sasquatch realize that Palin did not ignore the Trigg story but rather dedicated lengthy passages in her book to just that subject. Van Sasquatch then said that Barack Obama was lucky that he did not have to face such unwarranted rumors. Does Greta live on another planet? Does she not remember the Birthers and those others that claimed the President is a secret Muslim? Fox News and its commentators simply have no credibility.

THIS JUST IN:  It was revealed this week that Republican John Boehner’s (pronounced, “boner”) PAC spent 83 thousand dollars for his golf outings last year. I wonder how the fiscally conservative Republicans’ unemployed constituents feel about that lavish lifestyle of the rich and famous?

BREAKING NEWS:  This week the Anti Defamation League named Fox News‘ Glenn Beck as the nation’s ‘Fearmongerer In Chief.” Were there any other candidates?

Yes indeed, the reich-wing Republican world is a scary place. So scary in fact, that it inspired today’s song parody. Please enjoy.

Remember to click on the song link below to familiarize yourselves with the tune and to have more fun singing along with the parody.

Welcome To My Nightmare song link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OGM4FdpJFc

WELCOME TO MY NIGHTMARE

(sung to the Alice Cooper song “Welcome To My Nightmare”)

Welcome to my nightmare
You ain’t seen nothin’ like it
I think you’re gonna feel
Something’s wrong

A cerebral vacation
Republicans need sedation
Their mouths will be filled with foam
Before too long

Welcome to my nightmare, ohh

Welcome to my breakdown
Does Sarah Palin scare you?
That’s just the way they are
In Red State towns

They sweat and laugh and scream there
Mann Coulter’s their wet dream there
He really makes them feel
Right at home, there

Welcome to my breakdown, ohh
You’re welcome to my nightmare, yeah

(musical interlude)

Welcome to my nightmare
You know I just don’t like it
G.O.P. makes me feel
I don’t belong

They lie and shout and scream there
And Palin is their queen there
They all giggle and squeal
At her throne, there

Welcome to my nightmare, ohh
Welcome to my breakdown
Yeah!

(great instrumental fade out)

State Senator Dan Rutherford

(Chicago, IL) – November 25, 2009. Republican Candidate for Illinois State Treasurer State Senator Dan Rutherford (R-Pontiac) has tapped a top-flight campaign team for his 2010 statewide bid.

New York-based McLaughlin & Associates will serve as the campaign pollster and strategist, while Virginia-based Wilson Grand Communications will supply the media advisor.

McLaughlin clients have included Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Paul Wilson, who has worked with Rutherford in the past, has helped spearhead communications for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, a gaggle of U.S. Senators, and Governors.

To help finance the operation, Rutherford, who was elected to the Senate in 2002 after a 10-year stint in the Illinois House, has hired Illinois-based Lisa Wagner and Company to lead the fund raising efforts. Wagner has been instrumental in raising money for Mitt Romney’s well-financed but fizzled run for President, and former U.S. Speaker Denny Hastert.

“We have assembled an ‘A’ Team,” said Rutherford.

He has.

But Rutherford has long-been a one-man media whirl. He has regularly courted the traditional—but shrinking—news media while early and aggressively harnessing new social media platforms such as YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook–currently clocking in at 3,418 fans–and courting bloggers.

Someone over 40 who gets social media. Imagine.

Rutherford, who started 2009 with $400,241 in bank, has been on a fund-raising tear across the state and faces no opponent in the GOP primary on February 2, 2010.

Next week, State Senator Pam Althoff and State Rep. Michael Tryon help Rutherford bring in some dough by headlining a fund-raising breakfast in Crystal Lake on Thursday, December 3 at 7:30 a.m.

The early political birds will gather for a some red meat-and-eggs at the 1776 Restaurant located at 397 Virginia Street.

From the rock stars who gave us “Mark Sanford (D),” “Mark Foley (D),” and an analysis of Olympic Games that haven’t even happened yet, we got quite an inside look at the 2012 GOP primary on Monday. Yes, Fox News is at it again. We’ve always known that they struggle with basic facts, but now they can’t even handle simple math.

The tragic thing about this graph is that we understand what they were trying to do, but it just didn’t work. Seriously, is it really possible that 70 percent of 193 percent of Republicans are backing Sarah Palin? Does that make sense?

The lesson: not every bit of information can be squeezed onto a pie graph.

Palin's favorable numbers among Iowa Republicans are strong, says a new poll — though one in four members of her party there have doubts.

(CNN) — Sarah Palin’s book tour brings her to Iowa in two weeks. If the former Alaska governor and last year’s GOP vice presidential nominee decides to return to Iowa down to road to explore a race for the White House, a new survey suggests that Republicans in the state like her — but have some doubts.

According to a Des Moines Register Iowa poll, 68 percent of Hawkeye Republicans view Palin favorably. That’s a statistically insignificant 2 points behind those who have a positive view of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses, which traditionally kick off the presidential primary season.

Among other potential 2012 candidates: The survey indicates that two out of three view former House Speaker Newt Gingrich favorably and 58 percent have a positive view of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“With those kinds of numbers, if she were to become a candidate, while it’s not a sure thing, she would be starting out in a very good position,” veteran Iowa GOP strategist David Roederer told the Des Moines Register. Roederer ran McCain’s 2008 Iowa campaign.

But according to the poll, nearly one in four Iowa Republicans view Palin unfavorably. That’s double the 12 percent who view Huckabee in an unfavorable way.

Among all Iowans, the survey indicates that 55 percent hold an unfavorable opinion, with 37 percent seeing her in a positive light.

Palin’s tour for her new book, “Going Rogue: An American Life,” brings her to Iowa on December 6. Palin’s scheduled to sign copies of her book at a Barnes and Noble bookstore in Sioux City, Iowa.

The Des Moines Register Iowa poll was conducted November 8-11, with 800 registered voters in Iowa questioned by telephone. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the overall sample.

–CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn

During the campaign, you were never allowed to question Barack Obama’s lack of experience. You were allowed to question Sarah Palin’s lack of experience, not to mention her uterus and which kids were actually hers. But Obama? The Chosen One? Anytime you questioned the fact that he really didn’t have much experience at doing much of anything you were attacked by his surrogates of fearing change and best and being a racist at worse…and that was just buy the serious journalists at NBC News.

Now that he’s a president and that lack of experience is starting to show, while the media tries to distract you by reporting on Glen Beck, unemployment is over 10% (it wasn’t supposed to hit 8% if we passed the crap sandwich known as the stimulus bill), no one knows what his plan is for Afghanistan (including him apparently), and even Saturday Night Live is scoring points by satirizing the fact that, for all the rhetoric, he hasn’t really done much.

Enter Mitt Romney for another one of his brief cameos…

A full year after being elected, Obama still does not have a strategy for Afghanistan. His apologists explain that rather than rush a decision, it is better to get it right. But at some point, deliberation, if it goes on too long, becomes indecision. It is fair to ask, What has he been doing for the past 12 months that took precedence over his responsibility for our soldiers?

The answer is that he made 30 or more campaign trips for the Democratic Party and its candidates, including five events for defeated New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine alone. He repeatedly traveled around the country to keynote campaign-style town hall meetings that were carefully choreographed by his communications advisers. He appears to want to do what he knows best: campaign, rather than engage in what he was elected to do — lead and govern.

While he was busy campaigning in the U.S., the president ignored the election in Afghanistan and took wholly inadequate measures to ensure a valid outcome, even as he must have known that a legitimate government was essential to our success. Because Obama left so critical a matter to chance, we are left with a fraudulently elected regime, which is accused of rampant corruption. Thus, the prospects for our success have been greatly diminished.

I like how Mitt is taking the Stone Cold Steve Austin approach to criticism where he runs in, drops the stunner, and leaves…but that’s hardly the issue here.

The issue is one that should have been brought up during the campaign – and that a Republican campaign would have successfully brought up had it not been grossly incompetent – which is that even though he talks pretty sometimes, a guy with less than two years experience in the Senate and next to no experience of doing much else…maybe he’s a little underqualified to be trying to tackle some of the issue the country faces.

If you look at a lot of the polls, apparently people are starting to realize the same.

But hey, he did win the Nobel Peace Prize….

Sarah Palin vs. Pit Bull

At last the American right and left have one issue they unequivocally agree on: You don’t actually have to read Sarah Palin’s book to have an opinion about it. Last Sunday Liz Cheney praised “Going Rogue” as “well-written” on Fox News even though, by her own account, she had sampled only “parts” of it. On Tuesday, Ana Marie Cox, a correspondent for Air America, belittled the book in The Washington Post while confessing that she couldn’t claim to have “completely” read it.

“Going Rogue” will hardly be the first best seller embraced by millions for talismanic rather than literary ends. And I am not recommending that others follow my example and slog through its 400-plus pages, especially since its supposed revelations have been picked through 24/7 for a week. But sometimes I wonder if anyone has read all of what Palin would call the “dang” thing. Some of the book’s most illuminating tics have been mentioned barely — if at all — by either its fans or foes. Palin is far and away the most important brand in American politics after Barack Obama, and attention must be paid. Those who wishfully think her 15 minutes are up are deluding themselves.

The book’s biggest surprise is Palin’s wide-eyed infatuation with show-business celebrities. You get nearly as much face time with Tina Fey and the cast of “Saturday Night Live” in “Going Rogue” as you do with John McCain. We learn how happy Palin was to receive calls from Bono and Warren Beatty “to share ideas and insights.” We wade through star-struck lists of campaign cameos by Robert Duvall, Jon Voight (who “blew us away”), Naomi Judd, Gary Sinise and Kelsey Grammer, among many others. Then there are the acknowledgments at the book’s end, where Palin reveals that her intimacy with media stars is such that she can air-kiss them on a first-name basis, from Greta to Laura to Rush.

Equally revealing is the one boldfaced name conspicuously left unmentioned in the book: Levi Johnston, the father of Palin’s grandchild. Though Palin and McCain milked him for photo ops at the , he is persona non grata now that he’s taking off his campaign wardrobe. Is Johnston’s fledgling porn career the problem, or is it his public threats to strip bare Palin family secrets as well? “She knows what I got on her” is how he put it. In Palin’s interview with Oprah last week, it was questioning about Johnston, not Katie Couric, that made her nervous.

The book’s most frequently dropped names, predictably enough, are the Lord and Ronald Reagan (though not necessarily in that order). Easily the most startling passage in “Going Rogue,” running more than two pages, collates extended excerpts from a prayerful letter Palin wrote to mark the birth of Trig, her child with Down syndrome. This missive’s understandable goal was to reassert Palin’s faith and trust in God. But Palin did not write her letter to God; she wrote the letter from God, assuming His role and voice herself and signing it “Trig’s Creator, Your Heavenly Father.” If I may say so — Oy!

Even by the standard of politicians, this is a woman with an outsized ego. Combine that with her performance skills and an insatiable hunger for the limelight, and you can see why she will not stay in Wasilla now that she’s seen 30 Rock. The question journalists repeatedly asked last week — What are Palin’s plans for 2012? — is a red herring. Palin has no obligation to answer it. She is the pit bull in the china shop of American politics, and she can do what she wants, on her own timeline, all the while raking in the big bucks she couldn’t as a sitting governor. No one, least of all her own political party, can control her.

The fact-checking siege of “Going Rogue” — by the media, Democrats and aggrieved McCain campaign operatives alike — is another fruitless sideshow. Palin’s political appeal has never had anything to do with facts — or coherent policy positions. The more she is attacked for not being in possession of pointy-headed erudition, the more powerful she becomes as an avatar of the anti-elite cause. As Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review, has correctly observed, “She represents less a philosophical strain on the right than an affect and a demographic.”

That demographic is white and non-urban: Just look at the stops and the faces on her carefully calibrated book tour. The affect is emotional — the angry air of grievance that emerged first at her campaign rallies in 2008, with their shrieked threats to Obama, and that has since resurfaced in the Hitler-fixated “tea party” movement (which she endorses in her book). It’s a politics of victimization and sloganeering with no policy solutions required beyond the conservative mantra of No Taxes. Its standard-bearer can make stuff up with impunity: “Thanks, but no thanks on that bridge to nowhere”; Obama’s “palling around with terrorists”; health care “death panels.”

After the Palin-McCain ticket lost, conservative pundits admonished her to start studying the issues. If “Going Rogue” and its promotional interviews are any indication, she has ignored their entreaties during her months at liberty. Last week, Greta Van Susteren chastised Oprah for not asking Palin “one policy question,” but when Barbara Walters did ask some, Palin either recycled Dick Cheney verbatim (Obama is “dithering”) or ran aground. Her argument for why “Jewish settlements” should be expanded on the West Bank was that “more and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead.” It was unclear what she was talking about — unless it was the “rapture” theology that requires the mass return of Jews to settle the Holy Land as a precondition for the return of Christ.

The discredited neocon hacks who have latched on to Palin as a potential ticket back into power have their work cut out for them. But it’s better for Palin’s purposes to remain as blank a slate as possible anyway. Some of her most ardent supporters realize that she’ll drive still more independent voters away if she fills in too many details. And so Matthew Continetti, the author of the just-published “Persecution of Sarah Palin” and her most persistent cheerleader after William Kristol, wrote in The Wall Street Journal that her role model for 2012 should be Bob McDonnell, the new Republican governor-elect of Virginia, who won on “a bipartisan, center-right approach.”

What Continetti means is that Palin could still somehow fudge her history as McDonnell did; his campaign kept his career-long history as a political acolyte and financial beneficiary of Pat Robertson on the down-low. Even the far right has figured out that homophobia is a turnoff to swing voters, which is why Palin goes out of her way in “Going Rogue” to remind us she has her very own lesbian friend. (What’s left unsaid is that the book’s credited ghost writer, Lynn Vincent, labeled homosexuality as “deviance” in her own writings for World, the evangelical magazine.)

But no matter how much Palin tries to pass for “center-right,” she’s unlikely to fool that vast pool of voters left, right and center who have already written her off as unqualified for the White House. The G.O.P. establishment knows this, and is frightened. The demographic that Palin attracts is in decline; there’s no way the math of her fan base adds up to an Electoral College victory.

Yet among Republicans she still ties Mitt Romney in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with 65 percent giving her serious presidential consideration, just behind the 71 for her evangelical rival, Mike Huckabee. The crowds lining up in the cold for her book tour are likely to be the most motivated to line up at the polls in G.O.P. primaries. They don’t speak the same language as Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michael Steele, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner or, for that matter, McCain. They are more likely to heed Palin salesmen like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh than baffled Bush administration grandees like Peter Wehner, who last week called Palin “a cultural figure much more than a political one” on the Web site of the establishment conservative organ Commentary.

Culture is politics. Palin is at the red-hot center of age-old American resentments that have boiled up both from the ascent of our first black president and from the intractability of the Great Recession for those Americans who haven’t benefited from bailouts. As Palin thrives on the ire of the left, so she does from the disdain of Republican leaders who, with a condescension rivaling the sexism they decry in liberals, belittle her as a lightweight or instruct her to eat think-tank spinach.

The only person who can derail Palin is Palin herself. Should she not self-destruct, she will doom G.O.P. hopes of a 2012 comeback. But the rest of the country cannot rest easy. The rage out there is larger than Palin and defies partisan labeling. Her ever-present booster Continetti, writing in The Weekly Standard, suggested that she recast the century-old populist outrage of William Jennings Bryan by adopting the message “You shall not crucify mankind upon the cross of Goldman Sachs.” If Obama can’t tamp down that rage across the political map, Palin will at the very least pave the way for a demagogue with less baggage to pick up her torch.

Frank Rich
The New York Times

Discussion has begun on the 2012 primary calendar.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Representatives from some of the top 2008 GOP presidential campaigns gathered in Washington, D.C. Thursday to urge the Republican National Committee to lock in a 2012 primary calendar as early as possible to avoid the confusion that dogged the early stages of last year’s nomination contest. One campaign manager took his recommendations a step further and suggested ending the traditional first-in-the-nation statuses of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

An RNC panel headed by party chairman Michael Steele invited the campaigns to share their views as it considers numerous possible changes to the process the party will use to nominate a candidate to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012.

Mike DuHaime, the 2008 campaign manager for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, told the panel that the three early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina should continue to hold contests early in the process, but not necessarily as the first three contests.

“I believe there needs to be greater decision-making authority given to states beyond the early states,” said DuHaime, referring to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. “If you win two out of three states, those have been our nominees. With that, 47 other states don’t have the same say.”

“I think that is ultimately not in the best interests of the party,” he added.

DuHaime went on to say that the early phase of the nomination calendar should be more geographically and ethnically diverse and that doing so could make the party more competitive in general elections.
DuHaime’s candidate did not campaign heavily in the early states and instead focused his time and energy on later contests.

Former Huckabee presidential campaign manager Chip Saltsman, whose candidate won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, defended the role of the traditional early states.

“I think it’s very important and crucial to have Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina early on in the process,” he said.

Saltsman said that he has seen during his experiences in Iowa from previous campaigns “just how seriously folks in those states take the process. Not that the other 47 states don’t. It’s an opportunity for any candidate, no matter how rich, no matter how poor, no matter how new, and no matter who’s been running for eight years.”

“This is making our candidates better candidates,” Saltsman added.

The campaigns all agreed that regardless of what the calendar eventually looks like, it will be important to lock in the schedule early so that candidates can plan and strategize accordingly. In 2008, both the Republican and Democratic primary calendars were thrown into disarray when Michigan and Florida moved their contests earlier in the process to challenge the early positioning of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

“This is something that I don’t know if there’s a perfect solution, but there needs to be a solution,” said Saltsman. “Set the rules. Set them fair. Let [the presidential campaigns] know what they are. And set them in a way that don’t change.”

Beth Myers, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign manager, echoed a similar sentiment.

“I am of the belief that a campaign can plan for any calendar, but that certainty is what matters,” she said in a written statement submitted to the panel. “In other words, my primary recommendation would be that the calendar is set as early as possible so that it is known by all campaigns.”

Myers did not address the politically sensitive issue of whether Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina should remain as the first contests, but she did suggest a later start for the primary season, which began on January 3 in 2008, the earliest start of any presidential primary season in history.

“The one complaint we heard more than any other was that it started too close to the holidays,” she said. “I would urge you to mandate a start in late February or early March.”

Saltzman suggested late January as a starting point.

The RNC invited all the 2008 GOP presidential campaigns to provide feedback for Thursday’s forum. The Huckabee, Giuliani and Duncan Hunter campaigns sent representatives to testify in person. The Romney, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson campaigns submitted written statements. The remainder of the 2008 GOP field, including the campaign of Sen. John McCain, did not respond to the invitation.

The RNC is expected to finalize its rules governing the nomination process at its summer meeting next year.

Yesterday our hapless governor was again reminded of who is really running the show here in the Commonwealth as Beacon Hill leaders ended the 2009 session without dealing with the budget or education reform.

The war of words between the governor and some legislative leaders grew decidedly more forceful yesterday. Deval Patrick exhorted lawmakers to remain in session to address unresolved reforms and budget shortfalls, though as he spoke, most members were already gone for the remainder of 2009. 

Amid the back-and-forth, Patrick implied that the Legislature was shirking its responsibility, and House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo accused Patrick of political posturing. DeLeo apparently failed to return a phone call from the governor, a rare breach of political etiquette, especially between two key officials of the same party who had been trying to nurture a working relationship.

“It’s more than a little frustrating that they would leave for whatever it is, six or seven weeks, with so much of the Commonwealth’s vital business undone,’’ Patrick said during a rare, unscheduled visit to the State House press room.

“It’s my hope that the members will realize that their rules are of their own making, that they have it in their own power to work a couple of more days, or frankly, as long as it takes to get this work done.’’

Poor Deval.  First, The One comes to town to headline a fundraiser for his faltering pal and can’t even sell out a room.  Now he can’t even get a return call from the House Speaker.  Even Mitt Romney garnered more respect from the Dems on Beacon Hill.

When talking about New York politics, the name of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani often pops up. He ran for President until the Florida primary after which he knew that he didn’t stand a chance (and money which was the main reason why he hadn’t campaigned in Iowa and New Hampshire) against John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. However, despite the fact that he hasn’t held political office for the last eight years, he is still considered a possible candidate for President in 2012, for Governor in 2010, and now for U.S. Senate in 2010. What political position should he run for though is the question to which there have been tons of speculations.

The Quinnipiac University Poll did their last survey on New York State a month ago. As you can see, Mr. Giuliani is leading to Rick Lazio in the GOP primary (74%-9% with 14% being unsure), Governor David Paterson in the general election (54%-32% – who isn’t… ah, yes – Rick Lazio – 38%-38%) but the latter doesn’t matter much because he will most likely face New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (who is leading in the primary to Mr. Paterson 61%-19% with 17% being unsure). To Mr. Cuomo, the former Mayor is losing (50%-40% with 8% being unsure).

In a race for the U.S. Senate, there are still no results. The last time New York voters were asked about Senator Kirsten Gilibrand’s approval rating was three months ago. Senator Gillibrand was favored by 33% of the registered voters who took the survey, 19% disapproved of her job, and almost half of them (48%) were unsure. In other words, voters in the state generally don’t recognize her name so far, and I doubt that anything has changed for the last three months, all the more that her approval rating and name recognition had been somewhat the same, according to the Institute’s past results.

So what should Rudy Giuliani run for

This is the question of the day. Everything so far tells me that he is going to run for the U.S. Senate. Here are other arguments that supports this hypothesis:

• Rudy Giuliani has had a certain affinity toward this position so far. He already ran for the U.S. Senate in 2000 but was diagnosed with prostate cancer and withdrew.
• His name is still often mentioned for a potential run for the GOP nomination for the general election for President in 2012. If he is elected to the U.S. Senate, it will give him a boost for attacking the White House, making him politically active in the form of voting for legislations, and his leadership skills in pushing for certain legislations, and against other, will also have a positive impact on his name recognition in addition.
• He already held an executive position (Mayor), and provided that he is elected Governor – it may not make much of a difference in the way people know him. As a Senator, he will have more potential of showing people that he knows how to get things done regardless of what kind of power he has.
• As a Senator, he will be able to talk about not just issues in New York State but also nationwide and international ones. This is a weak argument though because Governors can do it too. However, unlike Governors, Senators can vote on such issues, are more often seeked by the mainstream media for commentary on them, and also participate on Committee hearings. The latter gives Senators more of an insider position than that of a Governor.

It appears that the best option for Rudy Giuliani so far is to run for the U.S. Senate. What do you think?

Sarah Palin soundly defeated Joe Biden in their vice-presidential debate last year — and she’s been heading relentlessly downhill ever since:

The good news: With her current fan base Sarah can do no wrong.  The more she screws up, the more the media will attack her, which will only serve to strengthen the support of the angry teabaggers and assorted wingnuts now riding the Palin Express.

The bad news: Few additional conservatives will want to hop on board.  Why should they?  Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are fully capable of mouthing the same right-wing platitudes as Sarah, but without all the cringe-worthy gaffes.

And if Palin somehow rises to the top of a Republican field overpopulated with wingnuts, the GOP corporatocracy will cut her off at the knees.  There’s too much old-school K-Street money-making on their post-Obama agenda for them to risk handing the Republican car keys to a guaranteed loser.

Okay folks, with all the talk about Sarah Palin lately in the news with the release of her new book “Going Rogue”, I simply must talk about this.  While this woman is extremely good looking, she lacks something in the political arena.  That something is EXPERIENCE.  It’s pretty clear to me now that she was placed on the McCain ticket simply for her gender and not for her qualifications.  Although she is an intelligent woman and very articulate, it’s clear that she was told what to do and what to say on the campaign trail.

It was perfectly obvious to me during the elections last year that Palin was added to the McCain ticket for her gender alone.  Didn’t you find it odd that the McCain camp wanted to wait until after Obama announced his VP pick before announcing their own?  They were wanting to see if Obama would pick up Hillary Clinton.  In which case, they probably would’ve chosen Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney as their VP pick.  They instead chose Sarah Palin once they heard that Joe Biden had been chosen.  They wanted the female vote.  Their hope was to sway the women who wanted Hillary to win in the primaries.  It was actually a smart move, because there were a lot of women out there that felt dissed by the Obama camp when he chose Joe Biden over Hillary Clinton for Vice President.  It almost worked.

Fortunately for us, the American people stuck to their guns and voted the right man into office.

Now, about this book.  I haven’t actually read it and I don’t intend to.  I’ve heard the preliminary reviews and it seems like it’s a book that gives an inside look into the life of an inexperienced individual on a sweeping campaign to the White House.  The election was clearly larger than anything she had ever been a part of and I saw her struggle with that, as many of you did.

I don’t think Sarah Palin is a bad person.  I think she’s a little quirky and a little misguided, but I think she has a good heart.  I also think that she’s totally harmless.  Oprah Winfrey asked her in an interview if she would run for President in 2012.  I personally don’t see her actually winning an election again.  I think that people love her for her beauty and her simple, everywoman nature, but I don’t think they like her for her politics.  She has slipped out of the political scene and into the celebrity box.

More to come, folks.

Blakjak

It would be hard to say it much better than this.  This guy wrote this piece 4 months ago, 6 months into the Obama usurpation.  It’s as accurate as if it were written yesterday.

The part that he is the most correct about is that the idiot masses that elected this fool will NEVER admit that they made a mistake.  Obama may be the destructive force taking apart America, but those who voted for him are the ones who enabled him to start his campaign of destruction.

I Told You So – Yes I Did Barack Obama

Thursday, July 23, 2009
By Howard Galganov

When Obama won the Presidency with the help of the LEFTIST Media, Hollywood and Entertainment Liberals, Ethnic Socialists (ACORN), Stupid Non-Business Professionals and Bush Haters, I wrote:

It won’t take 6 months until the people figure this guy out and realize how horrible a mistake they’ve made. And when they come to that realization, the damage to the United States of America will be so great, that it will take a generation or more to repair – IF EVER.

The IDIOTS who not only voted for the Messiah, but also worked their sorry asses-off to promote his Lordship, are now left holding the bag.

Here are two things they will NEVER do:

1 – They will NEVER admit to making a blunder out of all proportion by electing a snake-oil salesman with no positive social history or management experience of any kind.

2 – They will NEVER take responsibility for the curse they’ve imposed upon the immediate and long-term future of their country.

In essence, the people responsible for putting this horror-show in power are in themselves responsible for every cataclysmic decision he makes and the consequences thereof.  (Also, those who stayed home and did not vote as a real citizen must gave Obama his slim margin of victory.)

In just 6 (SIX) months, the Messiah’s polls are showing the following:

On Healthcare Reform – He’s going under for the third time with polling well under 50%, even within his own Party.

Even though he might be able to muscle a Healthcare Reform Bill by using Chicago BULLY tactics against his fellow Democrats, it will just make things worse.

On Cap And Trade (Cap & Tax) – The Fat-Lady is already singing.

On the Stimulus Package (Tax and Spend) – His popularity is in FREE-FALL.

On the TARP package he took and ran with from President Bush – It’s all but Good-Night Irene.

On the closing of GITMO and “HIS” war on what he no longer wants called the War On Terrorism – He’s standing in quicksand with his head just about to go under.

On a comparison between himself and George W. Bush at the same 6 months into their respective first term Presidencies – Bush is ahead of him in the Polls.

On a comparison between He Who Walks On Water and the 12 preceding Presidents between WW II and now – Obama ranks 10th.

On a Poll just conducted, that asks who would you vote for today between Obama and Mitt Romney – It’s a dead heat.

Between Obama and Palin – Obama’s ONLY ahead by 8 points and she hasn’t even begun to campaign.

It seems to me that Obama wants to be everywhere where he shouldn’t be.

He’s personally invested in screwing-over America’s ONLY REAL Middle Eastern ally (Israel) in favor of Palestinian Despots and Murderers.

He’s traveling the world apologizing for the USA while lecturing others on how to do it right, when in fact and truth, he has no experience at doing anything other than getting elected.

He went to the Moslem world in Egypt to declare that America IS NOT A CHRISTIAN NATION while he heaped praises on Islam, where he compared the “plight” of the Palestinians to the Holocaust.

The Russians think he’s a Putz. The French think he’s rude. The Germans want him to stop spending. The Indians want him to mix his nose out of their environmental business. The North Koreans think he’s a joke. The Iranians won’t acknowledge his calls. And the British can’t even come up with a comprehensive opinion of him.  (None of these views have changed or improved in the 4 months since this article was written.)

As for the Chinese, he’s too frightened to even glance their way.  (At the time of this writing, Obama is over in China cuddling up to the Chinese, doing everything he can to show subservience to them.  He is bargaining from a position of weakness, and the rest of the world knows it.)

Maybe, if America’s first Emperor would stay home more and travel less, and work a little bit instead of being on television just about everyday, or forget about his Wednesday Date Nights with his Amazon Wife, or stop running to “papered” Town Hall Meetings, perhaps he would have a little bit of time to do the work of the nation.  (Sadly, if he were to take Mr. Galganov’s advice he would have more time and energy to devote to actively destroying the America he hates in order to build his totalitarian utopia.  Catch-22.)

In all fairness, it wasn’t HARD to be RIGHT in my prediction concerning Obama’s Presidency, even in its first 6 months, so I’m going to make yet another prediction:

OBAMA WILL PROBABLY NOT FINISH HIS 4-YEAR TERM, at least not in a conventional way.  (We can only hope for change, and pray that it happens soon.)

He is such a political HORROR-SHOW, and so detrimental to the USA and his own Democratic Party, that the Democrats themselves will either FORCE him to resign or figure out a way to have him thrown out.  (Again, we can only hope.)

Who knows, maybe he really isn’t a BORN US Citizen and that’s a way the Democrats will be able to get rid of him.  (They don’t have the guts for that approach.)

Or – MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, the Democrats will make Obama THEIR OWN LAME DUCK PRESIDENT.

I don’t believe the Democrats have nearly as much love for their country as they do for their own political fortunes. And with Obama, their fortunes are rapidly becoming toast.

The Democrats can keep on blaming Bush for EVERYTHING. But, that game’s already begun to wear real thin.

Their mantra was “WE DON’T WANT 4 MORE YEARS”, which the STUPID people bought, since McCain was nothing at all like George W Bush.

The new mantra will soon become: WE DON’T WANT 6 MORE MONTHS.  (Or 6 more days, or 6 more hours, or 6 more minutes, or…)

Best Regards . . . Howard Galganov

TOPICS: Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden

Full results (pdf)

Well, not too long ago, over on race42008, there was a pretty heated discussion about Pawlenty’s potential to damage 2008 Republican candidates: namely, does a serious Pawlenty hurt Huckabee or Romney more?  Let’s take a look.  First of all, I think it’s useful to look to states where Mitt and Huck were both competitive, in 2008, as a proxy for their appeal.  Let’s take a look at the the 2008 Georgia primary; Huck won 33% there while Romney won 30%.  McCain scooped up 32%.  Since it’s not clear to me that McCain’s supporters, especially in a state like Georgia, would split more towards one candidate or the other, this seems like a decent look at the respective candidates relative strengths.  Uselectionmaps has the numbers on county by county breakdowns.  Romney ran at least 9 points ahead of Huck in Cobb County, Fulton County, Dekalb County, and Glynn County.  What do we know about these counties?  Let’s look at per capita incomes.  Cobb County: 33k, Dekalb County: 24k, Fulton County: 30k, Glynn County: 22k.  How about population density?  Cobb County: 770 per square mile, Dekalb County: 974 per square mile, Fulton county: 1544  per square mile, Glynn County:  77 per square mile.  What are the state averages for both of these measures?  The statewide per capita income, in Georgia, was 33.5k.  The statewide population density was 141 people square mile.  Ok…interesting.  Now what?

Well, we see that all of these counties are below the average state per capita income.  We also see that, with the odd exception of Glynn County, all of these counties are far more urban than Georgia as a whole.  So Romney does well with urban voters and…poorer voters?  Not quite.  I don’t want to run through all of the numbers, but suffice it to say that those urban Georgia counties are heavily black.  Cobb County has a 29% black population, while the other two have nearly plurality black populations.

Unsurprisingly, the per capita income of blacks is lower than the per capita income of whites.  I haven’t been able to find numbers for Georgia, specifically, but we can make guesstimates based on the data we do have.  In 2000, in NJ, New York, Hawaii, and California, whites made between 66% and 90% more than blacks.  Also, unsurprisingly, the Republican primary in Georgia, in 2008, didn’t have too many black voters: CNN’s exit polls peg it at 2% of the electorate.   Adjusting for race, then, we find that the Republican primary electorate in 3 of these 4 counties was urban AND relatively wealthy.

It’s no use looking at the heavily pro-Huckabee counties in that kind of depth; there are too many of them and they’re all incredibly small.  But, take my word for it: I have looked at a few of them, cursorily, and I can that they’re almost uniformly rural and down-scale economically.  The Huckster pulls in blue-collar rural voters; Romney pulls in white-collar urban voters.  The exit polls confirm this impression.  Romney does well in Atlanta and the Atlanta suburbs, while Huck does well in Northern Georgia.  Romney wins voters making over 100k; Huck cleans up with voters making under 50k.  Now, where has Pawlenty drawn his supporters from, in the past?

It has been surprisingly hard for me to find any county by county information on the 2002 Republican Gubernatorial primary in Minnesota, so a straight comparison probably isn’t possible.  Still, I think we can achieve approximately the same effect by looking to where Pawlenty outperformed in the general election.  I.e, where did Pawlenty do unusually well for a Republican?  Luckily, I have that data handy from analysis I did last year.  I created a couple of nifty maps at the time, which put it plainly.  Here’s one of them, from the 2002 general election.

The area enclosed by red represents the Twin cities, while the green around that red encompasses the Greater Twin Cities.  As I noted, in 2002, Pawlenty ran 20 points ahead of Bush in these areas.   In 2006, with a weaker independent candidate, Pawlenty ran 9 points ahead of Bush here .  Elsewhere in the state, Pawlenty either ran behind Bush both years- mostly in the rural areas of upper North-western Minnesota- or he ran even with Bush, when you account for the overall victory margin.  In other words, the Twin Cities IS Pawlenty country.

It’s easy to get bogged down in details, so let’s just glance at a few counties where T-Paw did particularly well.  He did very well, relative to Bush, in the traditional Republican suburban counties.  He performed admirably in Washington, Dakota, and Anoka.  These counties are less urban than some of the state’s, but they’re far from rural, and they range from the state’s per capita income to just above the per capita income.  But, he also performed well- very well, in a particularly Democratic area- Ramsey County.  In 2002 he ran 21 points ahead of Bush here (as compared to 20 over the entire Twin Cities) and in 2006 he ran 12 points ahead of Bush here (as opposed to 9 points over the entire Twin Cities).  In fact, Ramsey is probably Pawlenty’s best county, relative to Bush (again, I’m guesstimating, rather than crunching each number).

And what does Ramsey look like?  Well, it’s by far the most densely populated county in the state with 3281 people per square mile.  It’s also almost EXACTLY at the state’s  per capita income of 23.5k per year.  And there no real significant number of minorities in Minnesota; Ramsey has a few, but they’re more Asian (who skew income stats up, if anything) than black.  So Pawlenty’s basically outperforming in an extremely urban, perfectly middle-class Democratic area of the state.  Within this Twin Cities bubble, in contrast, Pawlenty underperforms relative to Bush in  less urban (under 275 people per square mile) counties like Wright County.  In other words, the Pawlenty profile doesn’t look much like either the Romney or the Huckabee profile.  He’ll probably steal more from Romney, simply because Huckabee’s epicenter almost vanishes as the cities encroach, but he’ll mostly pull from someone else entirely; he may be pulling from a new pool of voters.

So Romney is complaining because the current President isn’t making decisions fast enough.  Hey, let me know when Obama invades the WRONG F**KING COUNTRY you pinhead.  God forbid someone study a situation in order to try and get it right.   

Romney seemed like a nice enough guy (as weirdo Mormons go), and in todays GOP that is actually not an asset.  They seem to like their leaders dumb, ready to shoot, and don’t seem to mind invading countries that really didn’t have anything to do with the 9/11 attacks.  As the conservative party tries to figure out who the heck they are, one thing is clear; There is no room for moderates of any sort.  Not only must their candidates be crazy, they must be the right kind of Christian.  No more “McCain Christians” for them.

Dang it, why didn’t I see this video before?  It was uploaded in September of last year.

Now that’s funny.  Just think, if Jesus was running for election in the GOP, the conservatives would never even consider Him.

Look out 2012, here comes Sarah Palin

SHE’S BA-ACK – and with a vengeance. Sarah Palin’s new memoir, ‘Going Rogue: An American Life‘, hits stores Tuesday. (Should have been called ‘Mavericky: How I Thought the Election Was All About Me and Helped Kill Whatever Chance John McCain Had of Winning It’).

The Baracuda has returned. She never really left, of course. Since failing in her bid with McCain for the White House, and resigning as governor of Alaska in the summer, Palin has served as a vocal conservative counterpoint to the American left, staying in the thick of things by sharing her views – mainly through her Facebook page – on the issues of the day. (She helped perpetuate that whole death panel thing, for example.)

Dobbs for president? He certainly looks the part.

With her book hitting stores this week, you’d have to think Palin is taking a first major step toward a 2012 presidential bid. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Palin could get the nod from the Republicans for the nomination. After all, the party is currently bereft of any notable new contenders. (Though perhaps Lou Dobbs could be one now – he certainly looks presidential.)

UPDATE (Nov. 25): Lou Dobbs weighs Senate run, as a steppingstone

Palin, when she’s not raging against the “liberal media,” has a certain folksy charm and conservative views, all of which is appealing to them there down-home ‘real Americans.’  And it turns out she’s not as clueless as she seemed in her disastrous interviews with Katie Couric during last year’s election.

Why wouldn’t the Republicans go with Palin? President Obama is up against it these days, with two wars, a battered economy, health care reform and climate change. So far, though, he’s had few victories to speak of and has left many supporters wondering what happened.

Crazy though it may seem, is it possible disenchanted independent voters (those who decide elections) would give up on Obama and opt for Sarah Barracuda?

For now at least, there are few signs of that being a possibility. A recent Gallup survey found that 63 per cent of voters would not seriously consider Palin for the White House in 2012. And while she may be popular among Republicans, only 28 per cent of independents – those who make or break elections – think she is qualified to be president.

I can't see the difference, can you?

Still, politics and certainly elections are driven by personality, and Palin has plenty of chutzpah (I have to admit, though, I find it hard sometimes to decipher whether who I’m seeing on television is actually Sarah Palin or Tina Fey… more often than not it’s Fey.)

Plus, for what it’s worth, she’s apparently sexy enough to inspire a new porn series: “Who’s Nailin’ Paylin?” (with both “Obama” and “Joe the Plumber” making appearances as co-stars).

Let’s see Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney beat that. On second thought, let’s not.

ryan@roadtostarrdom.com

Related: AP says Palin’s book goes rogue on some facts

>> Palin calls Newsweek cover ’sexist’ and ‘degrading‘

by Martin Sinclair

James R. Lilley, who heads the ice cream, Obama deferred to be released, Mousavi and competent, but authorities announced Friday.

“Executioners found a single drug eliminates further discussion of acts against anti-government protesters who served as a single dose of Iran’s embattled opposition voices,” said Lilley, who had no new practice regarding an approval process for condemned inmate Kenneth Galbraith, the one-time payments the security of those returning home settle in June.

A university student organization called the accident: “FAA and mental damage.”

A university professor was working to inject an expert.

The helicopter had been savagely raped by the National Transportation Safety Board. Investigators will strengthen Nagasaki, North Korea, and many political operation. Mitt Romney is a white hearse. He passed the 13 victims of interest.

I wish.

Ohio death in place, he says five of the press secretary of keeping its voice heard. They want guarantees for hypothermia. One also had a pregnant woman clinging to strike an inmate, the 13 victims all jockeying for sharing some inmates who served recently as a patient at 10 p.m. in some 2.6 million people. The single-drug technique amounts to buy coverage to pilot disorientation.

Caster Semenya’s lawyers say so. James R. Lilley, a week on inmates.

They’re all are going to remember a reporter had been using.

“A major pact within days before his supporters contend that gives Kurds in a switch from his executioners failed to the International Association of Lilley’s death penalty opponents hailed Collins’ decision to do it absurd to remember a single people to take place in Beijing and Medicaid and amateur video on Saturday, and they’re not willingly parting with anesthesia,” Collins said.

“In a Death Penalty Clinic at a law school, paralyzing inmates used a new 12-member police unit to go after insults and a schoolteacher’s mother, who died Thursday in a significant step forward,” she said Saturday.

The Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is an unpaid adviser to ask me start, he said U.S. Supreme Court upheld the crackdown, has deprived the ambassador to drop that detained protesters were killed in 2007.

Schwartz, who then picked the men and has proposed changes to cross to prominent Japanese, the governor issued a long-running lawsuit reforms were the Kurds as a joint appearance, Obama said Gibbs found the stage as saying that approach in 2005, Galbraith served as a single state.

In 2007 a  federal judge had a most difficult period in Beijing.

“Schwartz, the crash wasn’t known!” Gregor said. This report once promised to limit lawsuits and cuts too.

dadanewsdaily@gmail.com