August 28, 1895
267 Avon Avenue, West Veronaville

“Mercutio!” squealed his young cousin, throwing her arms around him. “Where have you been? Why haven’t you come to visit me?”

Mercutio chuckled under his breath; laughing did pause the scene that had been playing on a loop in his head all these weeks, he found. He was frequently trying to think about something else–anything else–but so far, it hadn’t worked. At this point, it seemed that Juliette’s wedding would plague him for years to come. “Sorry, Beatrice, I’ve been… uh, busy.”

Busy moping around, that is. God, he felt ashamed even admitting that to himself. Maybe he needed to get out more.

Now, why had he come to see Beatrice, again? Oh yes–he needed a favor. It was the sort of favor he would not normally have asked of a nine-year-old, but she was the only one he could trust who wouldn’t be at risk. “Beatrice… can you sit down for a moment? I need to ask you something.”

Nodding, she took a step backwards and fell back onto the chair. “All right. What is it?”

How could he ask her this? She was only a little girl. If Juliette had still been living with Consort, or had married her cousin Hal and moved to the house of her uncle, Albany, he would not have considered this for a second, but it was common knowledge that Kent Thebe was a better man than his father and his brother-in-law–otherwise, everyone figured, Kent would still be Consort’s heir as opposed to Tybalt. Also, he’d made some inquiries as to whether either of the two most dangerous parties ever frequented Kent’s house, and he’d heard through the grapevine that they did not.

And even if someone other than Kent or Juliette was at the house, they wouldn’t know Beatrice if they saw her. She was a child, not a major player in any of these foolish scuffles. No one would know her for a granddaughter of Patrizio Monty unless she told them her name, and Mercutio liked to think his cousin was smarter than that.

“Look, cousin… you’re the only one who can help me here,” Mercutio began. “No one on the east side of town knows who you are, and I know I can trust you to keep this just between you and me. I know I’m asking a lot, and I’d send Romeo if I could, but he would be too conspicuous.”

Not to mention, Juliette’s little heart would probably break again at the sight of him, he added bitterly to himself.

Beatrice stared at him, a confused half-smile on her face. “All right… what’s the favor?”

Mercutio sighed. “Well… you know where Mr. and Mrs. Kent Thebe live, right? That nice house by the river?”

His young cousin nodded. “I know–there’s a sign that says ‘Thebe’, stupid. Continue.”

“Yes, well… I need you to go there.”

Her eyes narrowed, Beatrice sniffed. “I figured that much. Why?”

“I need you to give this message to Mrs. Thebe. Tell her that I’ve recieved a scholarship to Goth University in Belladonna Cove. I leave the first of September. Then, after you tell her that, wish her best of luck, both for herself and the baby. Can you do that?”

He was leaving. He hated voicing the thought almost as much as he hated thinking it. As much as he’d wanted this scholarship when he’d first applied, he now wished he hadn’t recieved it–his place was here, just in case Juliette and his little niece or nephew ever needed him.

And yet, he had to admit that this was probably for the best.

Solemnly, Beatrice nodded; even as a small child, she had always had the most uncanny of intuition. “I promise I’ll do just that.”

NEXT CHAPTER:

I finished  the sweater for Monty. It is cute (pics not loaded yet lol). He is not sure of it, but it really hasn’t been cold enough yet and when I took the pics, he was trying to sleep. I have started my xmas list. I think I may have bitten off more than I can chew there…we will see LOL.

I also have started a sweater for SD sized BJDs. I hope to be able to start creating more items to sell in my Etsy shop; custom or off the rack, either one.

Mom got me a lovely set of circular needles by Hiya-Hiya. I love them! They are interchangable circulars from sizes 2-8. She also got me a US000 circular by Addi, very helpful for knitting dolly clothes.

Math can be really fun. Seriously.

This post is the 2nd in a series of posts I’m planning to have about why math is such a beautiful, useful, and awe-inspiring subject, and that a lot of us can do math (advanced/seemingly difficult math even). Math is such an integral part of humanity since our cave dwelling days, and much more so now in most of our technology driven lives. Previously I wrote about how even advanced math, particularly advanced geometry, can be easily tackled with just your imagination. This time it’s about probability. I can just imagine some of you cringe at the thought of math, let alone probability. But I’ll try to show you that often times, logical reasoning is all that it takes to wrap your head around probabilities, even the ones that confound a lot of brilliant people, even some mathematicians themselves. In fact, we’ll end this article with a simulation of a game/game show. Not bad huh?

Probability and people

In a nutshell, probability is the area of math which deals with the likelihood of an event happening. It is usually expressed as a number, whether a fraction or a decimal, between 0 and 1, with a probability of 1 meaning the event will surely happen and a probability of 0 meaning the event won’t happen.

Now, don’t be too hard on yourself thinking that probability is too hard for you, unlike most of the human population. In fact, probability is one really confounding area of math and problems in it that seem to be easy in hindsight, turn out to be deceptively difficult or tricky, even for  mathematicians, teachers, and other brilliant men and women around the globe. In fact a lot of us have trouble wrapping our heads around probabilities. You mix that with human hopefulness and also the difficulty of grasping very large numbers and what you get is the staggering number of people around the world falling in line to get their lotto tickets so they could win the multi-million prize money.

In fact, if we do the math, in a typical 6/49 game of lotto (6 unique numbers chosen out of 49 numbers, where the order of the 6 numbers is not important) we find that your chances of winning today after buying that lotto ticket is 1 in about 14,000,000. So if Lucy (one of the earliest hominids/proto-humans known to us) or her people, or perhaps even Neanderthals started betting on the lottery at the beginning of their lives, some of them should be millionaires by now. That’s how bad we are at assessing odds, especially coupled with large numbers. So when you go buy that lotto ticket later, I’m afraid the odds are so much against you.

However, I’ll discuss next a particularly perplexing probability problem pondered by people, even brilliant ones, and found the solution to be deceptively trivial after all. Actually, even after you get the explanation, from a practical standpoint it doesn’t seem like so. But the logical reasoning will quite surely buy you out. But don’t fret, all you need again is imagination and logical reasoning.

Game time

Some of you may have heard/read about the American game show Let’s Make a Deal. The Monty Hall problem (MHP) was named after the show’s host. Simply stated, the rules of the game are as follows:

The game master (GM), has 3 doors: 2 with goats behind them and one with a car behind it. The GM lets you choose one door, which you think holds the prize car behind it. Since the GM’s job is to make you and the audience excited and enjoy the game, the GM opens another door. But since the GM knows the placement of the goats and the car i.e. which door has which item behind it, the GM opens a door which has a goat behind it. Now, the GM poses a question to you: Do you or do you not want to change the door you initially picked i.e. the GM gives you an opportunity to stay with the door you originally picked, or to choose the other door, knowing that one of the doors, which the GM opened, has a goat behind it.

The GM in the show is of course Monty Hall (MH). Now, you’d most probably think that since there are only 2 doors left unopened, that the probability of getting either a goat or a car is now 50/50 or 50% right i.e. it doesn’t matter whether you switch doors or not?

Nope.

In fact, however counterintuitive this may seem, your chances of getting the car at this point of the game doubles if you decide to change the door you initially picked. How? Let’s find out shall we?

Goat, Car, Goat

Now let’s strap on our imagination and logical reasoning caps to find out how the probability of getting the car increases two-fold if you switch your chosen door, and that it’s not a 50/50 chance of getting the car once a door with a goat has been opened by the GM.

Monty Hall problem

One way of looking at how this counterintuitive probability problem is correctly tackled is by taking the possibility of the events one at a time (refer to the figure above please). In this scenario we show that when you switch doors, you always double your chances of winning. Here’s how:

1. First event, say you picked a door and it happened to have the prize car behind it.  Regardless of which door the GM opens, switching in this case either gives you goat A or goat B i.e. you lose the prize car. Out of the 3 possible scenarios (2 of which are listed right after this one), in this one event/case do you lose the prize car.

2. Second event, you choose a door with a goat (goat A) behind it. The GM opens a door again with a goat (goat B) behind it. If you switch in this case, you get the car. This event, wherein you get the car by switching, is one event which you get the prize car. Score one for you.

3. Third event, you choose the 3rd door with a goat(goat B) behind it. The GM again opens a door with a goat (this time, goat A). So when you switch, you get the car again. Yay. This event, wherein you again get the car by switching, is another event which lets you take home the prize.

So what did we get from all this? We saw that out of 3 events/cases of picking either of the 3 doors, you always get 2 events (event 2. and 3.) which favor switching and which lets you walk away with the prize (or in this case, drive away with the prize). So the odds of getting the car/prize in the MHP is not 50% as a lot of us would initially assume, but instead, is really 2/3 or approximately 66.7%.

It can take a while to sink in, but the reasoning/explanation is quite logical and sound.

Try it out!

I actually tried this out with my mother and at another time with my younger brother. What I did was I got 3 opaque plastic cups (simulating the doors) and 2 toy cows (no goat toys in our house at that time) and 1 robot toy that transforms into a car (not bad for a prize no?). I made them act as a GM at one time, with me being the game contestant. Of course to prove my point I always switched. We did this about 20 times and I got the prize car (or robot) at around 14 times out of the 20 (roughly 2/3 of 20). Then I acted as a GM and they acted as the contestant. Then their job was not to switch doors (or cups), just to prove my point that you get the prize more often than not (2/3 of the time remember?) by switching instead of staying with your original door/cup.

They even asked me if I was doing a magic trick on them. I told them it was the power of mathematics and of logical thinking. Imagine what much more primitive, let’s say Bronze-aged men, would think of me, with this knowledge, even without modern devices like a cellphone. Perhaps they’d think of me as an oracle or even a god.

Great, great. But what’s the use?

I think one important thing we can get from this (other than to show you that you can do maths you thought were too hard or complicated for you) is that with math, we can make decisions in our lives (sports betting, lottery, game shows and so on) with more clarity, logic, and sound reasoning, instead of just blind optimism.

If you didn’t get the logic on how to win the game at first glance, or if you thought it was 50/50, don’t be ashamed, a lot of people (some brilliant even) fell for it too. In fact, out of 228 subjects in a study, only 13% chose to switch, and that the rest (87%) assumed that the switching didn’t matter since the likelihood of getting the car out of the 2 unopened doors are equal (research by Mueser and Granberg, 1999).

Quoting cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini

“… no other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time”

and

“that even Nobel physicists systematically give the wrong answer, and that they insist on it, and they are ready to berate in print those who propose the right answer.”

So, not bad eh? Still think math (or at least those areas you think are too advanced or complicated for you) isn’t for the average person? If so, then look forward to my next posts about math.

References, resources, and further reading

• Wikipedia article on the mathematics of lottery
• Wikipedia article on the Monty Hall problem

So, I promised to give you an update on fireworks “season”, well here goes.

Fireworks around here usually start on the weekend nearest Halloween, up to the weekend after 5th Nov, so can be 2 weeks long of BANG BANG BANG in the evening. Of course, we can’t even get home from work early to walk Monty while it’s still daylight, since some people think it’s fun to set off fireworks before it gets dark – seriously, what’s the point of that?

I’d booked a Reiki session for Monty with Reikifurbabies for 5th November, as I knew that would be the height of activity around us. In the days running up to it, we had to give Monty a diazepam once or twice, but he wouldn’t leave the house for walkies until morning – 24 hours of pawcrossing. On 5th, Candy & Ming were able to send him the Reiki treatment earlier in the evening just before the main displays started & with enough time to see how he’d react in case he still needed drugs. I needn’t have worried, Monty was spark out asleep for most of it! The only time he got a little edgy was when Jon’s parents came round with Eddie & we went out into the garden to light some sparklers. Monty tried to come out with us (I think he thought we were going to get in the car and leave him), but when we got back inside after some particularly loud bangs, he was sitting quite calmly on the sofa. Two nights before, he hadn’t let me out of the house to collect Eddie without him, then he sat trembling all night, so this was a massive improvement.

Up until last week, Monty still wasn’t going out after dark though. So I arranged for him to get more “Warrior” Reiki as I was away in Bremen, when I checked up on him, Jon told me he’d been waiting excitedly for walkies as soon as he’d got home from work, and has been fairly happily going out walkies since

Now all we need to do is sort out Monty’s arthritis!

You can read about Monty’s Reiki treatments here from the RFB’s view.

Mac Douglas GERRY VACHETTE COLUMBIA cuir acheter

Mac Douglas TEDDY GOAT SUEDE CHOCO cuir acheter

Mac Douglas TEDDY GOAT SUEDE COGNAC cuir acheter

Mac Douglas NEWMAN ONTARIO ANTHRACITE cuir acheter

Mac Douglas AGO SHEEP BROWN cuir acheter

Mac Douglas AGO SHEEP BLACK cuir acheter

Mac Douglas MONTY COLUMBIA BLACK cuir acheter

Mac Douglas HAYS SHEEP BROWN cuir acheter

Mac Douglas MONTY COLUMBIA BROWN cuir acheter

Mac Douglas BRANDO ONTARIO BLACK cuir acheter

Mac Douglas AVIATOR COLUMBIA BROWN cuir acheter

Acheter Blouson Cuir Mac Douglas en ligne.

July 7, 1895
46 Bard Boulevard, East Veronaville

It didn’t seem the sort of thing a mother ought to feel, but Bianca was acutely aware of the jealousy swelling within her as her infant daughter monopolized Albany’s attention. As pleasing as she found the scene–the baby and the father, together–she could not deny that selfish wish that he might take his eyes off of Katherina for a minute or two and look at her instead.

But perhaps this was natural. Perhaps men were always so enraptured by the sight of their children–she had little enough experience with men and with children to know for sure. She vaguely wondered if he had been like this with his children with his wife.

“She’s a jewel,” Albany declared as he gently bounced the girl in his arms. “I daresay she’ll be just as pretty as her mother.”

A warm blush crept onto Bianca’s face. “Much prettier, I’m sure.”

“I would agree if I didn’t think it impossible. Now, my love, come hither.”

Never before had she heard the word ‘hither’ spoken aloud. It had always seemed a term of which only the tongues of fairytale princes were worthy, but Albany’s voice did it such justice; perhaps she could only conclude that he himself was a fairytale prince.

“Yes?” Her own voice paled in comparison. Once again, she wondered what such a magnificent man could see in a simple girl such as herself.

Smiling, he handed her the baby, then met her gaze with his emerald eyes. “I want to see my two favorite girls together.”

Somewhat awkwardly, she posed Katherina so that the girl stared into her father’s face, the corners of her little mouth turning into her shy grin. “Perfect!” exclaimed Albany, returning Katherina’s smile. “My angels–beautiful apart, and even moreso together.”

Truly, he was something out of her dreams. Bianca had always been a shy, plain, talentless girl who had never attracted the eye of anyone and after a her youth seemed to be over, she had given up hope. Then, she had met Albany. He treated her like a princess; she worshiped him like a god. Her father had always told her that the men of the Elite were nothing but a bunch of scoundrels who only ever thought achieve their ends through violence and their wallets, but Albany had proven him wrong. Maybe the others were like that, but not he–he was her knight in shining armor.

“I do hope she grows to take after you,” he told her, glancing down at the baby one last time, “though if anyone can make my ugly old features look young and lovely, then surely it is she.”

“I think you wear them just fine yourself,” ventured Bianca, surprised at her own daring; very rarely could she bring herself to speak a full sentence to him.

His brow twitched; perhaps she should have kept her silence. “Put the baby down, Bianca, then join me on the sofa.”

Shrugging, she did as she was told–who was she to argue with such a man? After lowering Katherina into the crib, she kissed the baby’s forehead, watched those wide brown eyes flicker shut, then made her way to the sofa. As always, she wasn’t sure whether he would rather have her snuggled up to him or on the far end, giving him his space; she settled for a safe middle ground. “Thank you… uh, for coming today, I mean.”

“My pleasure,” he assured her. “Anyway, Bianca, love… I’ve been thinking. Seeing Katherina today–how perfect she is–well…”

Bianca’s heart fluttered against his ribcage. “Yes?”

“Well… maybe we should give her a little sibling.”

NEXT CHAPTER:

Following difficulties finding a new sponsor for the entire England team, the ECB hit on the idea of individual player sponsorship.  But can you match the player to the shirt?

(summer 2009)

För den som har missat så har Montt Mardié har gått i graven för att ge plats åt David Pagmars pånyttfödelse som Monty. Någonting som glädjer mig då det är helt och hållet på svenska. Har aldrig varit stormförtjust i Davids engelskspråkiga grejer och har väl aldrig riktigt fått upp ögonen förrän han släppte EPn; Direkt på svenska, innehållande fem lysande covers. Nu kan man lyssna på hans debutsingel En till himmel här och det låter bra, det låter tidigt 90-tal . Det enda jag inte uppskattar är Lorentz bidrag.

Het is feest in open source database land. De laatste tijd ontstaan er steeds meer alternatieven. MySQL, PostgeSQL en FireBird zijn er al een tijdje, maar nieuwe sterren aan het firmament dienen zich aan. Ik noem er maar een paar: MonetDB (de column-based open source database, een mooi Nederlands product), CouchDB (document georienteerd) en LucidDB (speciaal getarget op DWH en BI).

Het interessante is nu dat  de open source markt zelfs winstgevend wordt; er is klaarblijkelijk steeds meer geld mee te verdienen. Althans, dit is de conclusie die ik trek als ik af ga op de bedrijven die professionele ondersteuning bieden op open source databases. Een paar voorbeelden:

MySQL AB doet dit kunstje al sinds jaren. Inmiddels is MySQL van Sun en Sun van Oracle, maar er is een nieuw bedrijf gesignaleerd dat ook professionele ondersteuning gaat bieden: Monty.

Ingres zelf biedt 24×7 ondersteuning op haar eigen open source database (hoewel voormalig closed source).

En vandaag lees ik dat LucidDB ogenschijnlijk ook volwassen wordt, nu DynamoDB een commerciele versie gaat leveren.

Zijn dit incidenten of lijkt het toch structureel te worden? Wie gebruikt er al open source databases voor DWH’s?

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