(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

By Mayumi Otsuma

Consumer prices

excluding fresh food, the bank’s preferred gauge of inflation, will tumble 0.5 percent in the year starting April 1, 2011, and economic growth will accelerate to 1.2 percent, according to the median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The he central bank will release its semiannual outlook on Oct. 30 at 3 p.m. in Tokyo.

Policy makers will say in the report they plan to keep the

benchmark interest rate

low to foster the nation’s recovery from its worst postwar recession, analysts predict. That commitment, against the backdrop of forecasts for entrenched deflation and a fragile recovery, will quell any investor speculation that the bank unwinding emergency credit measures will lead to a rate increase, said

Masaaki Kanno

.

“The BOJ will probably highlight that consumer prices will be stuck in negative territory and use that to convince investors that a rate hike is still far, far away,” said Kanno, a former central bank official and now chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo.

Eleven analysts said the bank will say this week it plans to stop buying commercial paper and corporate bonds from lenders in December as scheduled because companies are finding it easier to obtain credit.

Fifteen of the 16 economists who gave monetary policy forecasts through 2011 said they expect the key rate to stay at 0.1 percent through the end of 2010 at the earliest. Japan’s borrowing costs have been kept below 1 percent since Sept. 1995.

The yen traded at 92.05 per dollar at 7:15 a.m. in Tokyo from 92.06 late Oct. 23 in New York.

End Credit Programs

“The central bank will likely decide this week it will end the credit programs” on Dec. 31, said

Naka Matsuzawa

, chief investment strategist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. “They can use the meeting to simultaneously show their subdued outlook for the economy and prices while underlining their commitment to a low-rate policy,” quashing speculation of an imminent rate increase, he said.

The asset-purchase programs have been in place since the bank lowered borrowing costs to 0.1 percent in December amid the worst Global financial crisis since the Great Depression. It has also been offering lenders unlimited loans backed by collateral, a facility analysts say the bank may extend into next year.

Bank of Japan Governor

Masaaki Shirakawa

and his deputy

Kiyohiko Nishimura

said this month the need for the programs of buying corporate debt has diminished as credit markets have stabilized. The bank is committed to keeping borrowing costs “very low,” they said.

Global Recovery

Some central banks are tightening policy as the Global economy recovers. Australia this month became the first Group of 20 nation to raise interest rates since the height of the financial crisis and policy makers in South Korea have signaled they will tighten credit to prevent asset bubbles from destabilizing growth.

Japan’s central bank may decide this week to extend the limitless lending initiative to March because the facility is being used by lenders and terminating it may cause borrowing costs in the money market to rise, according to JPMorgan’s Kanno.

Not all economists expect a decision on the programs this month. Analyst

Mari Iwashita

says the bank may postpone the decision for a month because this week’s gathering will focus on the economic projections.

Remain Divided

“Board members probably won’t oppose ending the corporate debt programs, which are being little used, but they probably remain divided over” the lending program, said Iwashita, chief market economist at Nikko Cordial Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This week’s meeting may not be a good opportunity to make a decision given that the board also wants to focus on their economic forecasts.”

The economy will shrink 3.1 percent in the year to March before growing 1.1 percent in fiscal 2010, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed. Prices will fall 1.6 percent this year and 1.3 percent in the following 12 months, they said.

Shirakawa has said the bank isn’t confident about the strength of the world’s second-largest economy once global stimulus fades and companies replenish inventories. The yen’s more than 5 percent advance against the dollar in the past six months has eroded exporters’ profits, while also made making imports cheaper and contributing to price declines.

Domestic demand is also showing signs of waning. Economists expect the

unemployment rate

to rise to an unprecedented 6 percent next year. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s government last week pledged to create 100,000 jobs by March.

“We’ll soon see more signs that the rebound is losing steam and that Japan may slip back into a recession,” said

Yasunari Ueno

, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. The BOJ’s report “will convince investors that the central bank won’t seek to raise rates until the first half” of fiscal 2011 at the earliest, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Mayumi Otsuma

in Tokyo at

motsuma@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 25, 2009 18:34 EDT

Source: Bank of Japan May Forecast Third Year of Deflation (Update1)

Brianna and Sailor. Getting back on the horse is easier when he's this small!

By Amanda Gallen, a Queenslander with two of our two-year-old Morgans.

Waking at dawn on our first day at Judy Oldmeadow’s farm was very special. I looked out the cottage window to the beautiful valley below. I woke my daughter Brianna so she could also experience the moment.

We had brekky, dressed quickly and went to the paddock to see our horses Sarge and Ava. They’d grown so much since we last saw them!

They were in a paddock with the other foals. We walked in and sat on a log. The herd noticed us and came over – our babies leading the way.

They smelt us from head to toe. So inquisitive! This was something I really wanted Brianna to experience.

Our week was full of adventures; childhood memories Brianna will never forget. Judy put her in charge of the farm’s smallest horse – a Shetland pony called Sailor.

It was just what Brianna needed. She gained so much confidence with a horse that was just the right size for a beginner. She fell a few times, once quite heavily. No broken bones; just one of those needed-to-happen experiences.

Brianna went very quiet after that and returned to the cottage for a rest. But she came back ready to regain her confidence.

I played with my babies and watched how they fitted into the herd. Observing lots of mare behaviour, I decided that human mothers would do well to act like mares. That way, our kids would get what we say first time, rather than wear us into the ground.

While most foals are well behaved, some don’t learn quickly. Sarge is one of them; he’s covered in bites as he just doesn’t move fast enough!

I rode with Judy – right inside the herd of mares and foals. I felt like I was running with the wild horses in The Man from Snowy River! It was an amazing buzz that kept a big smile on my face all night.

Judy worked with Ava and decided she was ready for saddling. Ava’s a clever filly and we even had Brianna sitting on her and walking around.

Though Ava was excited to have Brianna up there, everything was done with the utmost attention to safety and I wasn’t at all concerned.

I’m very happy I bought her.

I could go on and on about our lovely horsey experiences. Suffice it to say the farm truly felt like heaven to me!

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

Billionaire Warren

Buffett

, who collects a $US100,000-a-year salary for running Berkshire Hathaway, said Wall Street pay needs a “downside” when profits deteriorate because of reckless bets.

“You have to put in something where there is downside to people who really mess up large institutions,”

Buffett

said in an interview conducted by the chief executive officer of Business Wire, the Berkshire subsidiary that posts corporate press releases. “Too many people have walked away from the troubles they have created for society, not just for their own institution, and they have walked away rich.”

Wall Street bonuses for 2009 may jump 40 per cent to $US26 billion, a year after bad bets on subprime mortgages sent financial firms to the government for bailouts, according to estimates by compensation consultant Johnson Associates

Buffett

became the second-richest American by building Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire into a $US150 billion company.

“What you have to change in Wall Street, is you have to make sure that in addition to carrots, there are sticks,” he said. “And it can’t be a one-way street where they are making ungodly amounts of money when things are good and then they move on to someplace else for a while when things are bad.”

Goldman Sachs

Buffett

invested $US5 billion of Berkshire’s money last year into Goldman Sachs Group, Wall Street’s highest paying and most profitable firm. He said in the interview that the securities industry is essential to economic growth.

“I don’t look at Wall Street as ‘evil’,” he said. “I look at Wall Street as given to huge excess sometimes. I don’t want to get rid of it. We need something to allocate capital and distribute securities and all of that throughout the system. We have got a big capitalist system and we have to have a big capital market – but there is plenty of room for improvement.”

Banks worldwide reported more than $US1.1 trillion of credit losses and writedowns tied to the mortgage meltdown since 2007, according to Bloomberg data. The property slump helped topple CEOs at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch & Co, and pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a 12-year low in March.

Kenneth Lewis

Buffett

has criticized bankers for not guarding against the housing slump and blamed them for the worst recession in half a century.

“I think that virtually everybody associated with the financial world contributed to it,”

Buffett

said in a May news conference after the Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha. “Some of it stemmed from greed, some from stupidity, some from people saying the other guy was doing it.”

Wall Street bonuses in 2008 fell 44 per cent from the prior year to $US18.4 billion, according to New York state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

Goldman’s Pool

Goldman, led by CEO Lloyd Blankfein, set aside $US16.7 billion to pay employees so far this year. That’s enough to pay each worker $US527,192. The New York-based bank repaid $US10 billion it got from Treasury and reported a jump in third-quarter profit. JPMorgan Chase & Co., which repaid $25 billion of US funds, said profit surged almost sevenfold in the quarter.

The

Buffett

interview, conducted last month, was released today in connection with the launch of a Web site, PYMNTS.com, by Business Wire focusing on the electronic payments industry.

Buffett

is chairman and CEO of Berkshire.

Bloomberg

Source:

Bloomberg

Source: Warren Buffett says Wall Street pay must have downside

I LOVE this song!

This is from Hillsong – it is definitely one of my favorite songs ♥

The way I feel it, this song gives a sense of hope as well as elaborating the greatness of God.

To tell you the truth, I LOVE all words in the lyric. But if I had to choose, the refrain is my fav:

“Saviour
He can move the mountains
For my God is mighty to save
He is mighty to save
Forever
Author of salvation
He rose and conquered the grave
Jesus conquered the grave”

So here’s the complete lyric:

Mighty to Save – Hillsong

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

By Christine Harper

Third-quarter

earnings

fell to $757 million, or 38 cents a share, from $7.7 billion, or $6.97, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. The average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for earnings per share of 30 cents.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

John Mack

, who plans to hand off his CEO duties to Co-President

James Gorman

at the end of the year, increased risk-taking after profit in the first half of 2009 fell short of competitors including

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Value-at-Risk, a measure of how much the bank estimates it could lose in a single day of trading, climbed to $118 million, the highest level in at least seven quarters.

“This puts them back on the winning side,”

Gary Townsend

, Chief Executive Officer of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If we are moving into an economic expansion, it seems to me that they have been risk- averse and can afford to take additional risk as markets calm.”

Morgan Stanley, which had reported per-share losses for three straight quarters before today, rose $1.63, or 5 percent, to $34.15 at 9:40 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The Stock, which has more than doubled this year, is still below where it traded in September 2008 before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bankrupt.

Goldman’s Profit

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley’s larger rival, last week said third-quarter

profit

more than tripled to $3.19 billion, on trading gains and investments with the firm’s own money. Goldman’s value at risk for the period was $208 million, down from a record $245 million in the second quarter.

Wells Fargo & Co., the nation’s biggest home lender, posted a record third-quarter profit today by limiting loan defaults and wringing savings out of its Wachovia Corp. acquisition.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

, the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, last week reported a surge in profit to $3.59 billion that was driven by gains at the investment bank.

Bank of America Corp.

, the biggest U.S. lender, said it lost $1 billion in the quarter, while

Citigroup Inc.

, the No. 3 bank, reported a $101 million profit.

“Bread-and-butter banking is still kind of unclear, but capital markets seems to be relatively strong,” said

Kenneth Crawford

, a senior portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management LLC in St. Louis, which oversees about $800 million and doesn’t own Morgan Stanley Stock.

Book Value

Revenue

at Morgan Stanley fell to $8.7 billion from $18 billion a year earlier. Book value per share declined to $27.05 from $27.21 at the end of June. The firm’s return on equity, a measure of how well it reinvests earnings, was 5.8 percent.

Morgan Stanley set aside $10.9 billion for compensation and benefits in the first nine months of the year, or 64 percent of revenue. The number of

employees

at the company surged earlier this year because Morgan Stanley took control of a brokerage joint venture with Citigroup’s Smith Barney unit.

Institutional securities, which includes the trading and

investment-banking businesses

, posted a pretax profit of $1.3 billion on revenue of $5 billion. The division had reported three consecutive quarterly losses before today.

“Our investment-banking business delivered particularly strong results,” Mack, 64, said in the statement. “Although we still have work to do in sales and trading, it offers our single biggest opportunity for growth.”

Fixed Income

Morgan Stanley’s revenue from fixed-income trading was $2.1 billion in the quarter, which included a $600 million charge because the tightening of Morgan Stanley’s credit spreads increased the value of its liabilities. Goldman Sachs’s fixed- income revenue totaled $5.99 billion in the quarter, while JPMorgan made $5 billion.

In equities trading, Morgan Stanley’s $1.1 billion of third-quarter revenue included a $200 million charge for credit- spread tightening. The unit’s revenue compares with $2.78 billion at Goldman Sachs and $941 million at JPMorgan.

“Market stability is a necessary precondition to investing in the markets and applying capital, and we certainly seem to be getting a more stable market,”

Colm Kelleher

, Morgan Stanley’s chief financial officer, said in an interview today. “We’ve hired a lot of people this year. We expect that the benefits of that will kick in in 2010.”

M&A Business

Morgan Stanley is the top adviser on mergers and acquisitions announced so far this year, the first time the firm has outmatched Goldman Sachs in that category since 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Advisory revenue, which includes fees for counseling companies on takeovers, dropped 44 percent to $279 million in the quarter. Revenue from equity underwriting more than doubled to $457 million, while debt underwriting climbed 25 percent to $303 million.

Global wealth management, the retail brokerage division that owns 51 percent of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, recorded a pretax profit of $280 million on $3 billion of revenue.

Asset-management revenue rose to $698 million, resulting in a pretax loss of $356 million. Morgan Stanley agreed this week to sell its retail investment-management business, including the Van Kampen funds acquired in 1996, to Invesco Ltd. for $1.5 billion in cash and stock, giving the bank a 9.4 percent stake in Atlanta-based Invesco.

Kelleher said the pretax gain from selling the business will total about $1 billion, depending on where the share prices are when the transaction is finalized in the middle of next year.

The deal will leave Morgan Stanley’s fund unit to focus on managing hedge funds, funds of funds, real estate, private equity and infrastructure funds, as well as long-only funds managed for institutional clients.

“We think this is the right move” for Morgan Stanley,

Glenn Schorr

, an analyst at UBS AG in New York, wrote in a note to investors. Schorr said a focus on institutional asset management and the rest of the franchise is the “best use” of management’s time.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Christine Harper

in New York at

charper@bloomberg.net

.

Last Updated: October 21, 2009 09:41 EDT

Source: Morgan Stanley Beats Estimates as Risk-Taking Boosts Revenue

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

By Elizabeth Stanton

Yahoo, the owner of the No. 2 U.S. search engine, rose 4.5 percent after

earnings

were helped by increased spending from some advertisers. Morgan Stanley rallied after reporting its first profit in a year.

SanDisk Corp.

, the biggest maker of flash-memory cards used in digital cameras and mobile phones, jumped 10 percent after its sales forecast topped estimates.

“Companies prepared investors for very mediocre results,” said

Robert Lutts

, president of Cabot Money Management in Boston, which manages $450 million. “They lowered the bar very low and now are jumping over those bars.”

The

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index

added 0.6 percent to 1,097.28 at 11:17 a.m. in New York and earlier climbed above its highest close of the year. The

Dow Jones Industrial Average

increased 39.98 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10,081.46. About three Stocks advanced for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

The

S&P 500

has rallied 62 percent from a 12-year low in March as the government lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to combat the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s. The rebound left the benchmark index trading at about 20.6 times the reported Earnings of its companies, the highest since 2004.

Earnings Season

Profit has topped estimates at 76 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have posted third-quarter results, including Google Inc.,

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

and DuPont Co. More than 130 S&P 500 companies are reporting this week.

Yahoo rose 4.5 percent to $17.95. Third-quarter

profit

excluding some expenses was 15 cents a share, beating the average prediction of 13 cents by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Sales, excluding fees passed on to partner sites, were $1.13 billion, exceeding projections.

SanDisk Corp.

soared 10 percent to $23.63. The biggest maker of flash-memory cards used in digital cameras and mobile phones forecast fourth-quarter sales that beat analysts’ estimates as chip prices rebounded.

Apple Inc., maker of the iPhone mobile phone, iPod music players and MacIntosh computers, rose 3.1 percent to a record $204.91 and contributed most to the S&P 500’s advance.

Morgan Stanley Jumps

Morgan Stanley rallied 6.5 percent to $34.63. The sixth- largest U.S. bank by assets reported its first profit in a year, surpassing analysts’ estimates on higher investment-banking fees. Third-quarter Earnings were $757 million, or 38 cents a share. The average estimate of 21 analysts was for profit of 30 cents a share.

U.S. Bancorp climbed 6.7 percent to $25.38. The Minneapolis-based lender that has expanded during the financial crisis said third-quarter profit rose 4.7 percent on higher net interest margins and fees from mortgage banking and transactions at automated teller machines.

SLM Corp. soared 19 percent to $10.61 for the biggest advance in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. student loan company reported its first profit in more than a year.

Treasury Secretary

Timothy Geithner

said the bank capital- purchase program in the $700 billion bailout will be allowed to expire later this year because parts of the economy and markets are stabilizing, Reuters reported, citing an interview.

“We are now at the point where we can begin to wind down the programs that really defined TARP in its initial stages,” Reuters quoted Geithner as saying in the interview today, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Boeing Slumps

Boeing Co., the second-largest maker of commercial aircraft, fell 1.1 percent to $51.34 after Booking $3.5 billion in charges for the delayed 787 Dreamliner and 747-8 jumbo jet programs. Its largest-ever net loss of $1.56 billion, or $2.23 a share, exceeded the $2.10-a-share average estimate of 18 analysts in a survey.

Per-share Earnings for the 97 companies in the S&P 500 that released third-quarter results since Oct. 7 were down 11 percent from the year-earlier period. Per-share profit fell in each of the past eight quarters, a record streak of declines that analysts expect to end in the current quarter.

The Dollar Index, which gauges the U.S. currency against a basket of six trading partners, Slumped 0.5 percent to a 14- month low. The pound and the New Zealand dollar rose after central bankers signaled interest rates may increase. The U.K. currency climbed 1.4 percent against the dollar and the New Zealand dollar strengthened 0.6 percent.

Bank of England Governor

Mervyn King

started preparing Britons for higher interest rates, writing in the Herald newspaper of Scotland that “it would be wise to take account” of the prospect of rising borrowing costs. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard said a strengthening currency isn’t an obstacle to raising rates. Australia last week became the first Group of 20 nation to lift its benchmark rate since the start of the global financial crisis.

The Fed will issue its Beige Book report on regional economies, which policy makers will use to gauge the state of the housing market and the overall economy when they meet in the first week of November, at 2 p.m. in Washington today.

To contact the reporters on this story:

Elizabeth Stanton

in New York at

estanton@bloomberg.net

.

Last Updated: October 21, 2009 11:19 EDT

Source: U.S. Stocks Rise on Yahoo, Morgan Stanley Results; Dollar Falls

My new favorite photo of me and Morgan, circa 1983.

Thanksgiving at the Theisen’s was pretty fun. My only complaint was that they didn’t have a big table so half of us, the kids, had to sit at a different table. That was pretty lame, but we infiltrated later on and chatted together. I love talking with the adults. Whenever I was at my parents parties as a kid I would avoid the kids my age and listen to my parents and their family friends talk about insurance and building and jobs and stuff. It was way more interesting to me and if I had something to say I could speak up, and feel important. I loved listening to their stories, and I’m pretty sure it’s because my parents don’t talk about the past much.

Later that night I came home and laid around downstairs and watched some late night television. Apparently Robin Williams and John Travolta got drunk together like 30 years ago and crashed a black wedding. Robin commented that that would make a hilarious movie in and of itself. Then I got in contact with Shannon after her thanksgiving stuff was over. We planned to meet up and go morning shopping. I picked her up and we got to Old Navy by 3am. We looked around and didn’t find anything we wanted, so we left and decided to go to her house and nap until the Magic Carpet sale, which was the only one I really wanted to go to, at 8am. We got to sleep around 4:30 and I woke up and tried to convince Shan to go shopping, but she just wanted to sleep. We ended up sleeping in and watching tv. It was pretty fun anyways, I suppose.

After “dinner” I went up to the U to meet up with Morgan, Jeremiah, and Carl to go to the game night again and play some Left 4 Dead. Everything was locked up, so we went over to Morgan’s and played video games there. After a bit everyone decided to play magic. Morgan and I refuse to play every time, so we went to go play Left 4 Dead on his computer and switch off. It was pretty awesome. I came home and was going to return my movies, but I guess Mom did it for me. I think we’re cooking our own turkey sometime this weekend. That should be interesting. Time for me to sleep. I have a lot of writing to catch up on tomorrow!

Varied terrain? Check!

By Judy Oldmeadow, Owner & Master Horsewoman, Samaria Creek Morgan Horses

As promised, here’s my take on Andrew Bowe’s www.barehoofcare.com site.

Brumbies and American Mustangs have amazing feet. They don’t get trimmed, but they do travel many kilometres each day over varied terrain to graze and find water.

So why question thousands of years of evolution?

Historically, horseshoes let soft-footed domestic horses be used in any terrain. They helped mankind conquer the world in war, agriculture and transport.

Yet shoes come with a host of problems. If you’re not out conquering the world, these problems come to the fore.

Shoes protect the soft inner structures of a horse’s feet. But in so doing, they impede all other foot functions.

Absorption

The equine foot is a complex, three-dimensional shock absorber.

It’s designed to absorb nearly all the concussion from ground impact before it reaches the lower leg joints (which can only handle a very small amount).

Shoes blow this function out of the water. Not only is the frog unable to act as the initial and primary weight-bearing structure, the impact of the rigid shoe goes straight through the hoof wall into bones and joints.

Circulation

Proper function lets blood and lymph freely access every living cell in the foot, providing nourishment and removing waste. This is called perfusion.

Shoes seem to significantly compromise circulation. This is most evident on cold mornings, when healthy bare feet are warm to the touch, but shod feet are cold. There’s even a temperature difference between shod feet and bare feet on the same horse.

Shod feet grow much slower than bare feet because healthy tissue can’t thrive with poor circulation.

Weight Bearing

The equine foot is designed to share the weight bearing responsibilities across most of the ground surface (the inner wall, some sole and most of the frog). Notable exceptions are the outer wall and quarters, which aren’t designed for weight bearing.

The foot even adapts over time to the ground it’s living on to optimise this sharing of the load.

A shod foot, however, carries the weight of the horse entirely on the wall (including the outer wall and quarter, which should NOT be weight bearing).

This change in weight bearing may squeeze the coronary artery, causing blood to be shunted to the vein above the hoof. It may also cause a failure of the valve system that would otherwise lock the required blood into the foot at each stride for cushioning and perfusion.

If a horse can’t stand comfortably with vertical cannon bones, it must brace its neck and shoulders to engage its stay apparatus.

This causes fatigue and these poor animals can’t even get a good night’s sleep! Over time, this bracing manifests in the overdevelopment of certain muscle groups.

Deterioration

Horse feet deteriorate with domestication. The situation doesn’t improve with each successive shoeing. Rather, the more times feet are shod, the more they rely on shoes.

Chronic lameness is a degeneration that develops in a dysfunctional body over a long period of time and manifests into such problems as: laminitis, navicular, ringbone, side bone, degenerative joints – all of which are huge problems in the equine industry.

Horses are much better not shod in the first place.

Why Barefoot?

With barefooting, we maintain a horse’s feet in a physiologically correct framework, so they can move correctly, rest comfortably and remain functional at all times.

Rather than prop up dodgy foundations with shoes, barefooting develops strong, healthy foundations beneath a horse.

This leads to better long-term soundness.

Happy feet = happy horsie!

X-Factor fa parlare di sé, ma negativamente. Quest’edizione è stata un flop pazzesco, nonostante la produzionen abbia provato tutti i sistemi, soprattutto quelli beceri, per conquistare qualche centinaia di spettatori in più. Resta invece dopo questi tentativi falliti la sensazione che questo talent show abbia fatto, perlomeno in Italia, il suo corso e che ora occorra puntare su qualcosa di altro, di completamente nuovo.

Il fallimento ha causato tutta una serie di reazioni a catena impensabili all’inizio, in particolare da parte dei protagonisti, che si sono agitati sempre più, soprattutto quando si sono accorti di essere sostituibili, tutti quanti, soprattutto l’ultima arrivata (si erano fatti i nomi sia di Luca Jurman sia di Simona Ventura). Ed ecco allora le furbate in diretta, le sparate esagerate, complice il fatto che, intanto, a fare da cassa di risonanza per ogni strampalata dichiarazione c’erano al massimo due milioncini miseri miseri di spettatori.

La débacle si completa se si aggiunge il disastro, peraltro annunciato, del Processo ad X-Factor, che non guardano neppure i parenti dei cantanti in gara. Facchinetti, che pure è bravo, si trova a poco agio in un talk dove hanno la maggiore i commenti anti-obesità di Pastore (magari cominciasse a guardarsi un po’ allo specchio questo spocchioso mocciosetto) o i pistolotti senza capo né coda di Paroni, rispetto ai quali perfino la Elia sembra avere maggiore buon senso, anche quando, consapevolmente, cerca di fare l’oca.

Insomma, la colpa della trasmissione è stata proprio questa: credere che la seconda edizione (molto fortunata in termini d’ascolto) fosse seguita da un successo altrettanto fragoroso. Non ci si riesce, naturalmente, soprattutto quando le scelte sul palco sono di secondo livello, se si eccettuano due o tre cantanti di Morgan. Ma questa è solo la punta dell’iceberg.

L’altro errore della produzione è stato volere a tutti i costi Claudia Mori tra i giudici: quando Morgan la definisce “emissario del male”, purtroppo, non ha affatto torto. La signora C. s’è fatta beffa di ogni parvenza di buona educazione, in ogni momento del programma. X-Factor si costruisce invece proprio sul rapporto tra giudice e cantante, conflittuale o meno, ma di certo vero: ogni parola che la Mori ha invece detto, è stata talmente priva di sincerità che anche il più ottuso dei telespettatori se n’è accorto.

Sostituire la Ventura non sarebbe stato facile per nessuno. Occorreva che a prenderne il posto ci fosse almeno qualcuno magari meno simpatico, ma di certo con maggiori competenze. La Mori è riuscita nel difficile ruolo di apparire perfino meno esperta nel campo della Simona nazionale, che sarà anche una presentatrice, ma sceglieva le voci con più acume. Decisamente.

Claudiona, invece, ha sempre traccheggiato, alla ricerca del facile applauso personale, buttandola sempre sul proprio personaggio, fregandosene bellamente di coloro su cui doveva passare, magari facendone cadaveri, con cambi di strategia assurdi, ritocchi in corsa sempre più simili a palinodie: prima Tommassini disturba, poi è un genio; prima Sofia dev’essere eliminata, poi è una nuova Mina; prima le Yavanna sono inascoltabili, poi sono molto meglio di Silver.

Ecco perché, quando la Ventura ha dichiarato che questa è la peggiore edizione di X-Factor, aveva proprio ragione. E dire che lei parlava soprattutto di qualità. Al che la risposta piccata e risentita della Mori è sembrata assolutamente imperdibile come battuta di spirito, visto che a lei non risulta un calo degli ascolti. Si vede che in matematica (come anche in canto) la signora dovrebbe prendere qualche ripetizione.

Secondo i dati proposti da wikipedia (cioé i dati auditel ufficiali), la prima edizione durata 12 puntate ebbe una media di 2.291.000 spettatori e uno share medio del 10,96%, la seconda durata 14 puntate una media di 3.185.571 spettatori e uno share medio del 14,67%. La terza edizione, invece, che durerà 13 puntate, ha per ora una media di 2.268.818 spettatori e uno share dell’11,35%.

Se la matematica non è un’opinione, rispetto all’anno scorso il programma ha perso più di tre punti d’ascolto percentuale: un disastro (tenendo conto del fatto che l’anno scorso c’è stata anche la parziale sovrapposizione con “Amici”), che non è neppure paragonabile con la prima edizione (che peraltro perse ascolti con la finale – altrimenti sarebbe stata abbondantemente sopra l’11%).

Insomma, la Mori, tra le altre cose, ha fatto male i conti, ma in un mondo dove essere vipere e mentire è normalissimo la cosa non fa neppure notizia. Fa piuttosto notizia che lei dica che, per salvare il programma dalla Ventura, donna Celentano stia per decidere di bissare l’esperienza fatta quest’anno.

Le dicano che, ora come ora, se punta ad una riconferma, è meglio se si candida a condurre le previsioni del tempo. X-Factor, l’ha già ucciso.

X-Factor è morto. Viva X-Factor.

Un tempo la puntata degli inediti era quella più bella di X Factor. Era quella in cui, finalmente, gli artisti potevano esprimersi dando il meglio di sè. Quest’anno, invece, la manche degli inediti è stata la peggiore. Di sempre. Per farla breve, non c’è stato un brano degno degli inediti presentati gli anni passati (e non certo perchè nelle precedenti edizioni ci fossero capolavori, anzi): dei quattro c’è veramente poco di salvabile. Prima di passare alle analisi dettagliate (xD), un unico appunto: Silver fuori. Ma, vista l’ora, non fregava praticamente a nessuno: si è pure dimenticato il testo, ma nessuno aveva neanche la forza di segnalarlo.

Dicevamo: comincia la manche Giuliano, con Ruvido. Ecco, avessi saputo cosa sarebbe venuto dopo questo brano, probabilmente non l’avrei accolto tanto freddamente. In realtà Giuliano ha un ottimo potenziale, una voce interessante e potrebbe fare cose davvero ottime: il problema di questo brano è che lui entrato cantando Amy McDonald ed Amy Winehouse e rischia di tornarsene a casa con una canzoncina radiofonica (ma non troppo), carina (ma non troppo) e vendibile (ma non troppo). E che ha un retrogusto vecchio di almeno una decina d’anni.

Segue Silver con Fuori c’è il sole. Ecco, se posso andare controcorrente, non è poi così malaccio: intendiamoci, è veramente banale e senza il benchè minimo pregio, però almeno non si prende troppo sul serio. Silver – nonostante gli sforzi di Morgan – non è mai apparso come un cantautore, come uno particolarmente profondo: insomma, la canzoncina col fischietto ci sta pure. Certo, un testo un pochino meno superficiale e qualche nota meno banale sarebbe stato il minimo, però il motivetto è di presa immediata. Nonostante sia stata bistrattata da tutto il mondo, discograficamente potrebbe pure funzionare. Forse.

Poi è stato il turno delle Yavanna e di Una donna migliore. Mah. Volevano fare le alternative e se ne sono uscite con un mezzo plagio di Pappalardo. Sarà nel loro stile, d’accordo, però hanno fatto molto meglio in questi due mesi di X Factor. Un pezzo del genere non valorizza né il loro valore commerciale, né quello artistico. Una roba un po’ a metà, insomma.

E pure la grande attesa per Marco è stata parzialmente delusa. Dove si vola è carina e un pochino meglio degli altri inediti, ma si mormora che per lui avesse scritto un inedito Mika. Che i discografici hanno scartato, ritenendo questo più adatto. Devo aggiungere altro? Ah, sì, il 4 Dicembre uscirà il suo EP, con un altro inedito.

…sometimes our own lives interfere with living……….and the person who said that it is better to have loved and lost then to never have loved at all was a moron…

Non era mai successo. Morgan è un originale, anzi fin troppo, ma tanto così non aveva mai osato. Novello Argonauta, va all’assalto delle case discografiche, il vero vulnus del mercato, qui in Italia come altrove. Sono le loro logiche a distruggere l’arte: questa la tesi di fondo del pirata di X-Factor. E non è che sbagli, tra l’altro.

La verità è che c’è davvero poca logica nell’azione dei grandi potentati della musica, o meglio l’arte viene molto, ma molto dopo il mercato, che è il vero motore, con la pubblicità e il marketing, di tutto ciò che ruota intorno a loro, tanto che alla fine il talento viene prima o poi mortificato.

Se qualcuno (non erano in tanti, a quanto pare) ha seguito la semifinale di X-Factor ieri sera, si sarà accorto che la qualità degli inediti cantati dai ragazzi era imbarazzante: una sequenza di parole gettate al vento, di espressioni che definire banali era la meno peggiore osservazione che poteva capitare di escogitare. Come si fa a lanciare un cantante con siffatte frasi fatte? Forse nello stesso modo con cui Damiano canta trentamilacinquecento volte “anime” e tutti gli dicono che è il nuovo De André.

Morgan, dal canto suo, non ha resistito, anche se il suo discorso ha demolito le ultime possibilità (scarse, peraltro) di Silver di andare in finale. Ha sparato ad alzo zero su tutto quell’ambaradàn inascoltabile: la canzone delle Yavanna non era particolarmente originale dal punto di vista melodico, quella di Silver ha un testo ridicolo, su cui ogni cambiamento (anche verso la parodia spinta) sarebbe stato auspicabile, quella di Marco inutile e già sentito. S’è solo astenuto sul pezzo di Giuliano, ma può essere che, visto che il Sardo ha cantato per primo, Morgan fosse ancora in fase di carburazione.

Ne emerge lo stesso quadro sconsolante della scorsa edizione: inediti bruttini, o al meglio scontati, non legati direttamente agli interpreti, chiamati in un primo tempo a scrivere e presentare idee e poi allontanati da ogni scelta esecutiva. Silver veniva salvato, qualche tempo fa, da Morgan con il pretesto che fosse più autore di quanto non fosse Chiara. Poi, si scopre che non solo non è chi ha scritto il suo inedito, ma anche che ha potuto mettere mano solo a qualche parola del testo che ha cantato.

E, alla fine, grazie alla picconata di Morgan, si scopre che perfino a lui, vero scopritore di talenti, è stato vietato di accedere alla stanza dei bottoni della discografia. Quella che potrebbe sembrare una dichiarazione pro domo sua da parte del cantante e autore è, in realtà, ben più significativa di quello che appare a prima vista: è una dichiarazione di guerra destinata ad avere eco, dev’essere lo spunto per chi vuole difendere la musica dei propri beniamini.

I produttori discografici in genere capiscono solo un argomento: il danaro. Quando capiranno che la musica non è solo un modo per fare soldi, ma un mestiere serio, sarà sempre troppo tardi.

Per la prima volta parlo seriamente di X Factor! E lo faccio dopo la seminfinale di ieri sera e dopo aver ascoltato i tanto attesi inediti che, devo dire, non mi hanno soddisfatta del tutto.

I più convincenti Giuliano, con Ruvido, orecchiabile e dinamica e Marco, con Dove si vola, una ballad intensa ma forse un po’ femminile (e infatti era destinata a Chiara, mannaggia ai discografici)! Quello di Silver (Fuori c’è il sole) è un po’ all’acqua di rose, mentre Una donna migliore delle Yavanna è da approfondire.

Ieri sera è uscito Silver, eliminato da Claudia Mori che ha preferito salvare le Yavanna. La finale quindi si prospetta una battaglia tra loro e i due fuoriclasse Marco, Giuliano, mai andati in ballottaggio. Detto questo, è oramai chiaro che il testa a testa per la vittoria è tra Giuliano e Marco! Due cantanti e due persone molto diverse ma entrambe meritevoli di vincere!

Di seguito i link  agli inediti dei probabili vincitori:

• Marco Mengoni – Dove si vola (testo e video)
• Giuliano – Ruvido (testo e video)

E i link ad alcune delle loro migliori esibizioni:

Marco

• Il nostro concerto – Umberto Bindi
• Kiss – Prince
• Psycho Killer – Talkin Heads

Giuliano

• Stand by me – Ben E. King
• Quando – Pino Daniele
• L’immensità – Don Backy

]]> http://rachelandrea.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/25-baking-palooza/ Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:39:02 +0000 rachelandrea http://rachelandrea.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/25-baking-palooza/

I feel as though more things need “Palooza”s. At least for now. Tuesday I did not write anything useful or great. I did do school stuff hard core all morning, then go home and bake cookies for Morgan for his birthday and come back, give him his cookies, and go to choir. It was a really intense day actually and choir almost murdered my voice.

Today I got up around ten and did some morning stuff and then baked from about eleven in the morning until nine this evening. Peter came over and helped me, and we also watched House on Haunted Hill while a few pies were baking. There were three pies: an apple, a pumpkin and a blueberry pie. Also, I roasted a ton of sweet potatoes and toasted some bread (on accident, but it turned out alright). Peter and I decided it would be adorable to make these little tiny pies that are in mini muffin cups. I had found a recipe in a magazine and Peter and I tried it. They are pumpkin mini pies with pecan topping and they are DELICIOUS. I feel like a cooking genius.

This year we’re having Thanksgiving at the Theisen’s this year. I kind of love hosting, but this will be nice. Stacy is all about decorating, so that should be interesting. We are bringing the dressing (stuffing that isn’t stuffed), sweet potatoes, three deserts apparently, and some cranberry thing. At home mom is making a turkey for us, I’m pretty sure. At least there is one sitting out in the second fridge. Tomorrow should be fun. Oh! I don’t know what I’m going to wear. … This is a problem I’m going to leave up to “future Rachel”. I think she will know what to do.

I am rather tired and surprisingly exhausted, so I think I’m off to sleep now, kids. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Il 4 dicembre esce l’EP di Marco, prodotto da Sony.

Marco Mengoni
Dove si vola – Tracklist

1. Dove Si Vola (inedito)
2. Man In The Mirror
3. Psycho Killer
4. Insieme A Te Sto Bene
5. L’Amore Si Odia
6. Almeno Tu Nell’Universo
7. Lontanissimo Da Te (inedito)

Dall’ExtraFactor, il video del servizio fotografico per la copertina!

Dove si vola – Lyrics

Cosa mi aspetto da te cosa ti aspetti da me
Cosa sarà ora di noi, cosa faremo domani
Potremmo dirci bugie tranquillamente
Oppure andare per mano per sempre

[Rit]
Fammi respirare ancora portami dove si vola
Dove non si cade mai
Lasciami lo spazio e il tempo
E cerca di capirmi dentro
Vivimi ogni momento che ci sei
Che ci sei che ci sei

Cosa mi aspetto da te cosa ti aspetti da me
Adesso che siamo qui nudi sul tetto del mondo
Del mondo
Potremmo dirci bugie tranquillamente
Oppure andare per mano per sempre

[Rit]
Fammi respirare ancora portami dove si vola
Dove non si cade mai
Lasciami lo spazio e il tempo
E cerca di capirmi dentro
Vivimi ogni momento che ci sei
Che ci sei che ci sei

E non fermarti a quest’attimo
Che non ritornerà
E dimmi che ogni momento per noi sarà
Fantastico

[Rit]
Fammi respirare ancora portami dove
Si vola
Lasciami lo spazio e il tempo
Cerca di capirmi dentro
Vivimi ogni momento che ci sei
Che ci sei che ci sei

Cosa ti aspetti da me cosa mi aspetto da te

Un cambio di vita adesso so che servirà
Una nuova salita chissà mai dove mi porterà
Nonostante le stelle nonostante gli occhi tuoi

Come un tatuaggio ormai
Mi ritroverai improvvisamente con il mio cuore ruvido
Mi sorriderai in un attimo la fatica sparirà
Basterà solo un filo di voce
Basterà solo uno sguardo fra noi
Mi ritroverai sempre ancora ruvido innamoratissimo

Cammino per strada
A volte un po’ distante io
Troppa gente che parla troppo rumore in questa vita
Tu che inviti gli amici io che non parlo quasi mai
Ma lo so tu mi capirai

Mi ritroverai improvvisamente con il mio cuore ruvido
Mi sorriderai e in un attimo la ferita guarirà
Basterà solo un filo di voce
Basterà solo uno sguardo tra noi
Mi ritroverai sempre e solo ruvido innamoratissimo

Come un tatuaggio ormai
Mi ritroverai improvvisamente con il mio cuore ruvido
Mi sorriderai e in un attimo la fatica sparirà
Basterà solo un filo di voce
Basterà solo uno sguardo fra noi
Mi ritroverai come un matto ruvido innamoratissimo Innamoratissimo

For what, you ask?  Good day, good food, good life.  And amazing family and friends, of course!  (That goes without saying…  You know who you are.)

We just got back from my aunt and uncle’s house in South Pasadena.  Seven people, two dogs and lots of good cheer and tasty treats.  I am so lucky.  May I always remember — on Morgan’s favorite holiday and every other day too — that for all the pain and uncertainty that my life contains, I am blessed again and again and again.

At the top of my list is this smiley blond guy.  He makes me so very happy.