January 13, 2013 – CHINA - China recently upgraded its subway system in Beijing and revealed that its mass transit was hardened to withstand nuclear blasts or chemical gas attacks in a future war, state-run media reported last month. The disclosure of the military aspects of the underground rail system followed completion and opening of a new subway line in the Chinese capital Dec. 30, along with the extension of several other lines. The subway upgrade is part of an effort to ease gridlocked traffic in the city of 20 million people. According to Chinese civil defense officials quoted Dec. 5 in the Global Times, a newspaper published by the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, the subway can “withstand a nuclear or poison gas attack.” A U.S. official said the disclosure of the subway’s capabilities to withstand attack is unusual, since it highlights Beijing’s strategic nuclear modernization program, something normally kept secret from state-controlled media. The strategic nuclear buildup includes the expansion of offensive nuclear forces, missile defenses, and anti-satellite arms. China is building new long-range mobile missiles, including the DF-41, and plans to deploy up to eight new ballistic missile submarines. Reports from Asia indicate the Chinese military is also planning to build new long-range strategic nuclear bombers. Russia too is expanding its nuclear forces with new submarines and missiles. Moscow announced last year that it is also constructing some 5,000 underground bomb shelters in Russia’s capital in anticipation of a possible future nuclear conflict. By contrast, the U.S. government has done little to bolster civil defense measures, preferring the largely outdated concept of mutual assured destruction that leaves populations vulnerable to attack and building only limited missile defenses that the Obama administration has said are not designed to counter Chinese or Russian nuclear strikes. The Obama administration instead is seeking deep cuts in U.S. nuclear forces as part of President Barack Obama’s policy of seeking the elimination of all nuclear arms. According to the Global Times report, the new subway lines were “designed to be used in the event of an emergency, for underground evacuation from one station to another, emergency shelter, and storage for emergency supplies.” A military engineer identified only as Hu and as part of the Chinese military’s Second Artillery Corps, which builds and deploys China’s nuclear arsenal, helped design the civil defense aspects of the subway. Special steel-reinforced gates installed on all subway tunnels and used to separate stations are one key feature of the reinforced subway. Hu said it is designed to protect people who seek shelter during a heavy storm, toxic gas attack, or a nuclear strike. “The station has three hours of breathable air after the gates are closed, isolating the station from the outside world,” Hu was quoted as saying. “Although each gate weighs around 7 tons, it takes just three minutes for two adults to open or close it manually,” she said. The new blast gates were introduced into subway construction projects in 2007. A second Chinese official, identified in the report as Liang, said each subway also has an air filtration system in case of a chemical weapons gas attack. The system is designed to keep air flowing into the station. “People can actually shelter in the subway for more than three hours because of this system,” Liang said. Above-ground subway exits also can be sealed during an attack, Liang said, using heavy blast doors concealed behind temporary walls. Additional civil defense barriers and doors are being installed in the Beijing subway later, according to Cao Yanping, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Civil Air-Raid Shelter. Jiang Hao, a Chinese military engineer from the 4th Engineer Design & Research Institute of General Staff Department, told the newspaper that blast gates already are in use in cities such as Nanjing, in Jiangsu Province, and Shenyang, in Liaoning Province. “The new facilities also have other defensive capabilities like emergency communication equipment at each station, which makes effective communication possible during a conflict,” Jiang Hao, the engineer, told reporters in Beijing. China’s network of underground tunnels for nuclear weapons and missiles was disclosed only recently, and highlighted in Georgetown University’s Asian Arms Control Project, dubbed it China’s “Great Underground Wall.” –Washington FB

contribution by Emanni

January 12, 2013 – CHINA – Yesterday, it was reported that China – not currently suffering from any food shortages – is amassing rice stockpiles. This past year, the country mysteriously imported four times the rice over 2011 purchases: United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011. The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China’s own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled. Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason? Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia. Yesterday’s revelation follows reports over the past several years of the Chinese amassing commodities in warehouses throughout the nation. For example, Reuters reported last year that: At Qingdao Port, home to one of China’s largest iron ore terminals, hundreds of mounds of iron ore, each as tall as a three-storey building, spill over into an area signposted “grains storage” and almost to the street. Further south, some bonded warehouses in Shanghai are using car parks to store swollen copper stockpiles – another unusual phenomenon that bodes ill for global metal prices and raises questions about China’s ability to sustain its economic growth as the rest of the world falters. Several months ago, at least one analyst speculated that a commodities buying spree involving 300,000 tons of metals in another Chinese province was motivated by an attempt to keep local smelters running, thereby ensuring continued tax revenues to government. But that doesn’t explain the rice-buying. What we do know is that the world may be headed – led by the United States – toward a period of significant inflation if sovereign debt crises lead to additional “quantitative easing” and other expansions of the monetary supply. –Joe Miller

contribution Emanni

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An unexploded Syrian missile lodges in a street near the capital, Damascus, as fighting continues to rage between rebels and factions loyal to president Bashar Al-Assad, who has ruled the country since 2000.

January 3, 2013 – SYRIA – The overall death toll in devastated Syria has surpassed an estimated 60,000 people, the United Nations said Wednesday, a dramatic figure that could skyrocket as the civil war persists. To put it in perspective: 60,000 people is roughly the population of Terre Haute, Indiana; or Cheyenne, Wyoming. It’s how many people would fit in Dodger Stadium, and it’s more than the 50,000-plus U.S. combat deaths in Vietnam. The figure is about 15,000 higher than the death toll CNN had cited from a collection of sources. It’s “truly shocking” and shameful, said U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, who blamed the international community for inaction. “Collectively we have fiddled at the edges while Syria burns,” she said. “While many details remain unclear, there can be no justification for the massive scale of the killing highlighted by this analysis.” Inside Syria, anti-government activists brought their personal perspective to the new death estimate: “No wonder!” Hama activist Mousab Alhamadee said. “We live on the ground and we see the massacres daily.” Western and Arab nations have denounced President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, but they have been been reluctant to intervene in hopes of ending the warfare. They haven’t been successful in forging tough action against Syria at the U.N. Security Council because of opposition from Russia and China, both of which have long had friendly relations with and economic ties to Damascus. While some countries have passed along weapons to the rebels, the larger world community has avoided being drawn into a war, fearing a bloody quagmire, such as the Vietnam War for the United States or the invasion of Afghanistan for the Russians. Echoing the fears of U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, Pillay worried about more deaths “unless there is a quick resolution to the conflict. I fear thousands more will die or suffer terrible injuries as a result of those who harbor the obstinate belief that something can be achieved by more bloodshed, more torture and more mindless destruction,” she said. Pillay said the number of deaths is higher than expected. “This massive loss of life could have been avoided if the Syrian government had chosen to take a different path than one of ruthless suppression of what were initially peaceful and legitimate protests by unarmed civilians,” she said. “As the situation has continued to degenerate, increasing numbers have also been killed by anti-government armed groups, and there has been a proliferation of serious crimes including war crimes, and — most probably — crimes against humanity, by both sides.” -CNN

December 21, 2012 – CHINA SEA - Three Chinese ships entered into waters near small islands in the East China Sea that are claimed by both countries on Friday morning and were staying despite a warning from a Japanese Coast Guard ship, the coast guard said. The move continues a dispute over the islands — which Japan calls Senkaku and China calls Diaoyu — that stretches back decades. Last week, Japan scrambled fighter jets near the small islands in the East China Sea after a Chinese plane was seen there. Chinese government ships have repeatedly entered the waters around the remote, rocky islands since the Japanese government announced in September it was buying several of the islands from private owners. Japanese Coast Guard vessels have engaged in games of cat and mouse with the Chinese ships, with both sides broadcasting messages to one another insisting they have territorial sovereignty over the area. Analysts say that by sending its own patrols into the area, China is challenging Japan’s de facto control of the islands, which has been the status quo for the past 40 years. -CNN

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December 6, 2012 – SYRIA – News reports that Syria’s military has loaded nerve-gas chemicals into bombs and is awaiting final orders from President Bashar Assad. U.S. officials confirmed Wednesday to NBC that bombs had been filled with precursors for deadly sarin but that they had yet been loaded onto planes. On Tuesday, officials said there was no evidence the process had begun. On Monday, a senior Pentagon official told the Associated Press that U.S. intelligence had detected movement of chemical weapon components at one site. Fox News cites a senior U.S. official as saying the bombs must be used within 60 days or the chemical expires and must be destroyed. At least three facilities produce Syria’s chemical weapons, according to Global Security. They are located near Damascus, Hama, and Safira, near Aleppo, the heart of the opposition. President Obama warned Assad of “consequences” if chemical weapons are used against rebellious Syrians. “The world is watching,” Obama said Monday during a Washington symposium on nuclear non-proliferation. “If you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences, and you will be held accountable. We simply cannot allow the 21st century to be darkened by the worst weapons of the 20th century,” he added. In 1988, the late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein gassed Kurds with sarin, killing an estimated 5,000 men, women and children. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday again warned Assad to not use such weapons against his people. “Our concerns are that an increasingly desperate Assad regime might turn to chemical weapons, or might lose control of them to one of the many groups that are now operating within Syria,” Clinton said in Brussels after NATO foreign ministers authorized the deployment of an anti-missile system in Turkey. “And so, as part of the absolute unity that we all have on this issue, we have sent an unmistakable message that this would cross a red line and those responsible would be held to account.” NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Tuesday called Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons “a matter of great concern” that adds to the urgency of deploying the Patriot missiles in Turkey. He called any use of chemical weapons “completely unacceptable,” saying it would result in “an immediate reaction.” Syria is one of eight nations that has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention. The others are Angola, Egypt, Israel, Myanmar, North Korea, Somalia and South Sudan. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon urged Syria last week to join the treaty. In a statement Wednesday, the United Nations’ Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons called the use or threat of use of chemical weapons “unacceptable.” -NBC

November 26, 2012 – TEL AVIV – Israel has successfully test-fired Magic Wand, the successor to the Iron Dome interceptor that featured prominently in the recent Gaza conflict. And now, even before the aftershocks of the Israel-Gaza conflict dissipate, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have tested the next generation of anti-missile systems. The interceptor, also known as David’s Sling, was jointly developed by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and the United States’ Raytheon. Magic Wand, it is understood, was developed against the Hezbollah missiles from Lebanon. The country is subject to threats from the Islamic militant group, perceived as the long arm of Iran. Israel is hoping the latest system in its arsenal will be useful in intercepting a variety of short-range ballistic and cruise missiles. The interception range for Magic Wand is between 70km and 75km. Each interceptor has been estimated to have cost around $1mn (£624,000) and expected to be fully operational in 2014. Testing was originally scheduled for 2013 but the critical situation of recent weeks has seen the schedule pulled forward. The Iron Dome interceptor successfully stopped over 400 missiles from the Gaza Strip. IDF statements indicate Iron Dome has a success rate of approximately 90 percent and the latest interceptor, it is hoped, will extend the same run. “The great success of the Iron Dome batteries during Operation Pillar of Defense proves beyond a shadow of a doubt the tremendous importance of anti-missile systems. Israel is a world leader in this department thanks to the Israeli defense industries and its developers,” said Defense Minister Ehud Barak in a statement, adding, “The completion of the program will be a significant layer for Israel’s multi-tiered anti-missile defense system.” Officials in the Jewish state are reportedly pleased with the success of the latest interceptor, as its system is much more complex. –IB Times

November 26, 2012 – CAIRO - Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi is due to meet with the country’s Supreme Judicial Council, as judges try to persuade the president to limit the sweeping powers he granted himself last week. The decree has sparked protests by opposition activists, who continued to camp out in Cairo’s Tahrir Square for a fourth day Monday demanding Mr. Morsi reverse his decision. Opponents and supporters of the president have called for rival mass rallies in the city on Tuesday. Mr. Morsi’s decree says his decisions cannot be appealed by the courts, and bars Egypt’s judiciary from dissolving the upper house of parliament and an assembly drafting a new constitution. Critics say Mr. Morsi is taking on dictatorial powers like those of his predecessor, Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted from power by a popular uprising. The president says his decree is “temporary” and will last until Egypt elects a new parliament under a revised constitution. A spokesman for his ruling Freedom and Justice Party said Sunday the decree will likely last for two months or less, and characterized the move as a bid to “secure stability” in Egypt. In Washington, influential U.S. Senator John McCain criticized Mr. Morsi’s decree as “unacceptable,” in an interview with the television network Fox News. “We thank Mr. Morsi for his efforts in brokering a cease-fire (between Israel and Hamas), which by the way is incredibly fragile, but this (decree) is not acceptable. This is not what U.S. taxpayers expect. Our dollars (should) be directly related to the progress toward democracy which you (Morsi) promised the people of Egypt when your party and you were elected president.” The Obama administration has proposed a $1 billion debt relief package for Egypt to help revive its struggling economy. Egypt also has received billions of dollars in U.S. military aid over three decades of close relations. The U.S. State Department said the Morsi declarations “raise concerns for many Egyptians and for the international community.” It said one of the aspirations of the 2011 revolution was “to ensure that power would not be overly concentrated in the hands of any one person or institution.” Reformists and liberals fear the Islamist-dominated assembly revising the charter will produce a document with an Islamist slant. -VOA

November 21, 2012 – AFRICA – As most of the world has been focusing on ongoing conflict in Gaza, a geopolitical crisis of another sort is unfolding in central Africa where the rebel seizure of the substantial Congolese city of Goma could have grave consequences for the troubled region. “It’s just the beginning. We don’t know what will happen next and it has the potential to destabilize the Eastern Congo and the potential to destabilize the Congolese government depending on what the rebels decide to do next,” Severine Autesserre, an assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, told CBC News. The M23 rebels — soldiers who defected from the Congolese army — took control of the provincial capital of Goma and its international airport Tuesday, having met little resistance from government troops or the UN peacekeeping force stationed in the area. Thousands of residents from this part of the Democratic Republic of Congo had already fled as reports emerged of civilian casualties, abductions and destroyed property, sparking concerns of a full-out civil war like what had taken place a decade ago. Adding to the volatility is that neighboring Rwanda is accused of backing the rebels and supplying them with weapons. “People who live in Goma, they are really afraid, are very worried and have good reason to be,” said Autesserre, an expert on the African region. “Because whenever some kind of armed group takes over a city in the eastern Congo, it’s really bad news for people there. It means a lot of human rights violations. “If the rebel groups actually leave the city and the Congolese government troops take over the city again, you have another process of human rights violations, of targeted killings and revenge killings. That’s what happens every time you have a change of control of a city,” she said. –CBC News

November 19, 2012 – MIDDLE EAST - U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Cairo Monday to join Egypt-brokered talks between Hamas and Israel with a goal of agreeing on a cease-fire. There’s a real sense that with all the instability in the region – the civil war in Syria, protests in Jordan, militants in Libya – that an escalation in hostilities would have disastrous effects. Egyptian Prime Minister Hesham Kandil told the Reuters news agency that the talks were making progress and that he expected a cease-fire agreement to come in the next few days. However, at a press conference later in the day, Hamas leader-in-exile Khaled Meshaal showed no signs that an agreement was imminent, saying that it was Israel’s responsibility to stop a fight it had started and that Hamas would only agree to a truce if key demands were met. “We don’t accept Israeli conditions because it is the aggressor,” he told reporters in Egypt. “We want a cease-fire along with meeting our demands … Israel has to stop killing and assassinating our leaders. They have to stop the invasion and end the blockade on Gaza.” Israel is unlikely to agree to that for fear that lifting the blockade would allow weapons to flood into Gaza and into the hands of militants. After years of existing as an international pariah – with Syria and Iran as its primary allies – Hamas has been emboldened by the support it now receives from key regional powers such as Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. Meshaal warned that the Middle East has changed with the Arab Spring, and he called on Muslim countries to stand together against Israel. Asked by CBS News if Hamas wants peace with Israel, Meshaal responded with a message for the United States: “If God is willing, the American people will wake up and realize that it will benefit them to support the 350 million Arabs, not Israel, to be with the 1.5 billion Muslims and not Netanyahu’s gangs … Don’t reverse the picture. The killer should offer this peace, not the victim.” But amid the bluster and bravado, Meshaal’s very presence in Cairo for talks is a strong sign that Hamas would like to see a cease-fire. –CBS

November 19, 2012 – ISRAEL – Israeli planes kept up air strikes, they say are aimed at stopping rocket attacks into Israel. Fewer rockets have been launched, but Israeli towns are still being hit. Ninety-five Palestinians and three Israelis have died in six days of violence, the latest including a militant group commander. Efforts to secure a ceasefire continue, with a senior Egyptian official saying there are “encouraging signs.” Khaled Meshaal, the political leader of the Islamist movement Hamas which controls Gaza, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had requested a ceasefire but that it was up to Israel to stop the war that, he said, it had started. Israel immediately denied making any such request, Reuters news agency reported. Mr. Meshaal said that a truce was possible in Gaza, as was further escalation of the conflict. Morale in Gaza was high and anyone who attacked the Palestinians would be “buried,” he added. Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi has said an Israeli ground invasion would have “serious repercussions,” saying Egypt would never accept it “and neither will the free world.” Mr. Netanyahu said on Sunday that he was ready to expand the operation, after Israel authorized the mobilization of up to 75,000 army reservists. Gaza militants launched 32 missiles into Israel on Monday, of which four were intercepted, said the IDF. One hit a school in the Israeli city of Ashkelon. Classes had already been cancelled. Another hit a house. There are no reports of casualties. At least nine children were killed in Gaza on Sunday – the bloodiest day so far – and TV reports showing horrific images of their burned and bloodied bodies have been fuelling Palestinian anger, says the BBC’s Jon Donnison in Gaza City. In one strike, nine members of the family of Hamas policeman Mohamed Dalou were killed – four of them children. The army’s chief military spokesman, Yoav Mordechai, told Israel’s Channel 2 TV that the intended target of the strike had been Yehiya Rabiyah, the head of Hamas’s rocket-launching unit, but that there had been “civilian casualties.” Later, the IDF told the BBC that the house had been targeted because it was thought Mr. Rabiyah might be hiding there but officials did not know whether he was inside at the time of the attack. –BBC 

 Sharon’s son says Gaza should be flattened: Mr. Sharon, an activist for the opposition Kadima party said that Israel’s south would only be calm when Israel would be able to declare total victory over Hamas and other radical groups in the city. Otherwise the alternative would be to reoccupy the territory that his father ordered a withdrawal from in 2005. To do so the army should unleash an all-out assault. “Flatten all of Gaza. The Americans didn’t stop with Hiroshima – the Japanese weren’t surrendering fast enough, so they hit Nagasaki, too,” he wrote in the Jerusalem Post. Mr. Sharon, who is also a major in Israel’s reserve forces, said the government should force the leadership of Gaza to capitulate by cutting off all supplies. “There should be no electricity in Gaza, no gasoline or moving vehicles, nothing. Then they’d really call for a ceasefire,” he wrote. “Were this to happen, the images from Gaza might be unpleasant – but victory would be swift, and the lives of our soldiers and civilians spared. “If the government isn’t prepared to go all the way on this, it will mean reoccupying the entire Gaza Strip. Not a few neighborhoods in the suburbs, as with Cast Lead, but the entire Strip, like in Defensive Shield, so that rockets can no longer be fired. While the elder Mr. Sharon, one of the most distinguished soldiers in Israel’s history, remains incapacitated, Gilad claimed recently he can communicate with his father by gestures and eye movements. The youngest son of the family, Gilad was the gatekeeper to his father during his time in office. He now manages the family farm in the Negev desert. A storm of hostile comments was triggered on Twitter by the remarks. –Telegraph

contribution by Neibo

November 18, 2012 - SUN – A truly gigantic explosion happened on the sun yesterday. On Nov. 16th, magnetic fields snaking halfway across the sun’s southern hemisphere erupted in tandem, producing a prominence so big, it doesn’t fit inside this image from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): “The red-glowing looped material is plasma, a hot gas made of electrically charged hydrogen and helium,” officials with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, which oversees the SDO mission, explained in a description. “The prominence plasma flows along a tangled and twisted structure of magnetic fields generated by the sun’s internal dynamo. An erupting prominence occurs when such a structure becomes unstable and bursts outward, releasing the plasma.” The blast hurled a CME into space, but the cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. –Space Weather

We are passing through a rare singular series of events in history that are coinciding by occurrence: a total solar eclipse, the peak of the Leonid meteor shower, and a large explosion occurring on the Sun; in effect, signs in the sun, moon, and stars all transpiring within days of each other. These celestial events are happening at the time a war wages around Jerusalem, a city considered holy to the world’s three major faiths: Jews, Christians, and Muslims. –The Extinction Protocol

November 16, 2012 – TEL AVIV—Israel’s military stepped up its mobilizations for a possible ground invasion of the Gaza Strip on Friday after Palestinian rockets struck near Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, as neighboring Egypt escalated its own war of words against Israel. Late Friday, Israel’s cabinet approved the call-up of 75,000 Israeli reservists, more than doubling the number authorized the previous day. Heavy armor and soldiers from two elite brigades continued to mass at staging grounds on the Gaza border. A decision to launch a ground invasion could come within 24 to 36 hours if rocket fire continues, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told CNN on Friday “They don’t call up all these reserves to keep people standing in the stands watching,” said a senior Israeli military official. “After rockets on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, it’s pretty hard not to” order a ground invasion. For three hours on Friday, Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil visited the Gaza Strip and stood hand-in-hand with leaders of Hamas, the militant and political group that rules Gaza. Coming after two days of Israeli strikes there, it was a bold show of support for Hamas from Cairo as well as a diplomatic gambit to gain a break in the fighting. Israel had pledged to hold its fire during Mr. Qandil’s visit. But rockets from the Palestinian territory could be heard taking off toward Israel, even as the Egyptian premier spoke to reporters. The emerging question in the latest conflict—which was sparked by a rise in Gazan rocket attacks on Israel earlier this month, and broke into the open when Israel assassinated Hamas’s top military commander on Wednesday—is how far Egypt’s new Islamist government can extend itself on the behalf of its ideological allies in Hamas. Egypt is a peace partner of Israel. Its gasping economy depends on Western largess and its military largely is funded by the U.S. In recent days, U.S. President Barack Obama has had several calls with Egypt’s recently elected Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, aimed at bringing Hamas in line. During Friday’s call, the White House said, President Obama commended Egypt’s efforts to de-escalate the situation. “Morsi’s room to maneuver is very limited,” said Ofer Zalzberg, a Middle East analyst with the International Crisis Group. “He is dependent on the West. Everything he has done so far is pretty standard, not very different than what [former President Hosni] Mubarak would have done. Even sending the PM to Gaza, he declared that only after his conversation with Obama. So he’s not out there acting unilaterally.” If Israel’s leaders give the order for a ground assault on Gaza, it would be the first such operations since 2009 and would plunge Israel’s government into risky territory—risking soldier casualties and steep political fallout should the operation go awry, and jeopardizing its international backing. Israel’s three-week ground war against Hamas in 2009 left more than 1,000 Palestinians dead, and destroyed entire villages and much of Gaza’s infrastructure. Israel’s image tanked internationally as it fended off war-crimes accusations. Prime Minister Qandil arrived in Gaza on Friday morning to demonstrate his new government’s clear policy break from Mr. Mubarak’s more-pro-Israeli regime. In a visit unprecedented for such a senior Egyptian official, he met with Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh before visiting wounded civilians at a crowded Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. -WSJ

Middle East on the brink: Conflict could easily spiral into a major Middle East war, as Egypt issues threats to Israel. Israel prepares for seven weeks of war.

November 16, 2012 – ISRAEL – Israeli tanks and troops moved toward the Gaza Strip on Thursday night in apparent preparation for a possible invasion of the crowded seaside enclave after a day of violence that included two militant rocket strikes on the southern suburbs of Tel Aviv, raising the likelihood that the region was on the brink of all-out war. A day after Israeli aircraft and warships retaliated for hundreds of rockets fired into the country in recent weeks by striking scores of targets in Gaza in the biggest Israeli military operation in four years, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak summoned more than 30,000 reservists to military duty. Barak said the order was intended to make Israel “ready for any development.” Those soldiers could be seen from the Israeli city of Kiriyat Malachi, 20 miles north of Gaza, massing and heading toward the border, even as officials indicated that the decision to invade hadn’t yet been made.  “We have made the preparations, and entering is certainly an option,” said a senior Israeli military official based in southern Israel, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity under the military’s ground rules. “If the politicians were looking for an excuse, Hamas gave them one.” That was a reference to rockets fired by militants in Gaza that struck neighborhoods across the southern Tel Aviv metropolis, the first time Palestinian rockets had reached the densely populated urban center where more than 40 percent of Israelis live. No one was injured in the strikes on Tel Aviv, but three people died in Kiriyat Malachi when a militant’s rocket struck a four-story building. The possibility of all-out war alarmed countries across the globe. Egypt’s Islamist government said Prime Minister Hesham Kandil would visit Gaza on Friday in a show of solidarity with Hamas and ordered the border crossing at Rafah opened around the clock to allow wounded Gazans to seek medical care in Egypt. Gaza’s Hamas leaders said offers of assistance were pouring in from throughout the Arab world. The United States expressed support for Israel and blamed Hamas for triggering the violence by allowing militants to fire rockets into Israel. President Barack Obama spoke with Egypt’s Islamist president, Mohammed Morsi, and urged him to broker a cease-fire. Hamas considers itself a close ally of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, of which Morsi was a leading member before he assumed the presidency. France, too, sought to broker peace between the two sides, with the country’s prime minister saying that President Francois Hollande had been in touch with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Morsi. The prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, called the violence “dangerous for the security” of both Israelis and Palestinians, according to news reports. Morsi sided with Hamas, saying, “The Israelis must realize that this aggression is unacceptable and would only lead to instability in the region and would negatively and greatly impact the security of the region.” On the streets of Tel Aviv, there was a new sense of vulnerability, even though police said the two rockets that landed here had done so harmlessly, one falling into the water just off the beach in the Tel Aviv neighborhood of Jaffa, and the other striking a field near the town of Rishon Lezion. Still, for many who’d thought they lived in areas of the country safe from attack from Gaza militants the sound of air raid warnings brought a new sense of dread. Israelis strolling along the beach promenade in Tel Aviv went sprawling into the sand in search of cover as police warned that they had less than 90 seconds from the sound of the first siren before a rocket was expected to land. -ADN

The home of Hamas Prime Minster Ismail Haniyeh was bombed by the Israel Air Force overnight Thursday, though the Hamas leader was not home during the strike. The targeting of Haniyeh’s home signifies a significant escalation in the IAF’s targeted assassination policy. The IDF began Operation Pillar of Defense to root out the terror infrastructure in Gaza with the targeted killing of Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari on Wednesday. The IDF struck some 150 medium-range rocket launching pads in the Gaza Strip overnight Thursday as well as a number of weapons depots belonging to terror organizations in the coastal territory, as Operation Pillar of Defense entered its third day. After more than 300 rockets were fired into Israel since Operation Pillar of Defense began on Wednesday, only a small number of rockets landed in Israel overnight Thursday, mainly in open areas. The barrage of rocket fire renewed on Friday morning with rockets hitting  residential areas in the Ashdod and Sha’ar Hanegev Regional Council areas, causing some damage to property and leaving several people suffering shock. Red alert warning sirens began sounding off in communities across the South just after 7a.m. on Friday morning, including in Beersheba, Ofakim and Sderot. The IDF stated Friday morning that it has struck more than 500 terror targets in Gaza since the operation to root out terror infrastructure in the coastal territory was initiated. –Jerusalem Post

November 15, 2012 – GAZA — Israel on Wednesday launched one of the most ferocious assaults on Gaza since its invasion four years ago, hitting at least 20 targets in aerial attacks that killed the top military commander of Hamas, drew strong condemnation from Egypt and escalated the risks of a new war in the Middle East. The Israelis coupled the intensity of the airstrikes with the threat of another ground invasion and warnings to all Hamas leaders in Gaza to stay out of sight or risk the same fate as the Hamas military commander, Ahmed al-Jabari, who was killed in a pinpoint airstrike as he was traveling by car down a Gaza street. “We recommend that no Hamas operatives, whether low level or senior leaders, show their faces above ground in the days ahead,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a Twitter message. The ferocity of the airstrikes, which Israel called Operation “Pillar of Defense” in response to repeated rocket attacks by Gaza-based Palestinian militants, provoked rage in Gaza, where Hamas said the airstrikes amounted to war and promised a harsh response. It quickly launched dozens of rockets into southern Israel, including several that struck the city of Beersheba, shattering windows and damaging cars but causing no injuries. Civil-defense authorities in Israel, anticipating retaliation, raised alert levels early in the day and told residents in southern Israel to take precautions. Many remained indoors or congregated in bomb shelters. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said the Israeli attacks had killed at least five others besides Mr. Jabari, including a baby and a 7-year-old girl, and had wounded at least 40. The abrupt escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hamas, the militant organization regarded by Israel as a terrorist group sworn to Israel’s destruction, came amid rising tensions between Israel and all of its Arab neighbors. Israel has faced growing lawlessness on its border with the Sinai, including cross-border attacks. It recently fired twice into Syria, which is caught in a civil war, after munitions fell in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and it has absorbed rocket fire from Gaza, which has damaged homes and frightened the population. Israeli officials had promised a robust response to the rocket fire, but for the moment, at least, opted against a ground invasion and instead chose airstrikes and targeted killings. The Israeli attacks especially threatened to further complicate Israel’s fragile relations with Egypt, where the Islamist-led government of President Mohamed Morsi, reversing a policy of ousted predecessor Hosni Mubarak, had established closer ties with Hamas and had been acting as a mediator to restore calm between Israel and Gaza-based militant groups. In the first crisis in Israeli-Egyptian relations since Mr. Morsi came to power, he called the Israeli actions “wanton aggression on the Gaza Strip.” He ordered Egypt’s ambassador to Israel to return home, summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest, and called for emergency meetings of both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab League over the Gaza attacks. Egyptian state media said Foreign Minister Mohamed Amr had “warned Israel against the consequences of escalation and the negative reflections it may have on the security and stability of the region.” –NY Times

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November 12, 2012 – SYRIA – NATO will defend alliance member Turkey, which struck back after mortar rounds fired from Syria landed inside its border, the alliance’s Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said at a meeting in Prague on Monday. “NATO as an organization will do what it takes to protect and defend Turkey, our ally. We have more plans in place to make sure that we can protect and defend Turkey and hopefully that way also deter so that attacks on Turkey will not take place,” he said. Rasmussen also welcomed a weekend agreement by Syrian opposition groups to put aside differences and form a new coalition. A Syrian fighter jet on Monday bombed an area near the Turkish border, causing several casualties, officials and witnesses said. An Associated Press video journalist saw the plane bomb an area around the Syrian town of Ras al-Ayn, some 10 meters (yards) from the Turkish border. Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army, the main armed opposition group, downed a regime helicopter flying above the al-Hamdan airport in the eastern province of Deir al-Zor on Monday, Al Arabiya reported. Last week the rebels overran three security compounds in the town, located in the predominantly Kurdish oil-producing northeastern province of al-Hasaka, wresting control from the regime forces. An official at the local mayor’s office said Turkish ambulances were carrying several injured Syrians to a hospital, across the border in the Turkish town of Ceylanpinar. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters. The force of the blast shattered shop windows in Ceylanpinar, in southeastern Turkey, the official said. It was not clear if anyone in Ceylanpinar was injured in the bombing. The fighting in Ras al-Ayn touched off a massive flow of refugees two days ago, and more refugees were seen coming after the blast. Earlier, a Syrian helicopter bombed rebel positions in an area further south of Ras al-Ayn and the rebels could be heard responding with machine guns, the official said. –Al Arabiya News 

British troops to be deployed on Syrian border: British troops could be deployed around Syria’s borders in the event of a worsening humanitarian crisis, the head of the armed forces warned yesterday. General Sir David Richards, the Chief of General Staff, said that contingency plans for military intervention are being “continually brushed over” as Syria’s civil war continues. He stressed that any troop involvement would be limited and conditional on the support of people in the affected area, but his remarks raise the spectre of the UK being involved in another conflict at a time when the West is trying to extract itself from the 11-year war in Afghanistan. General Richards told BBC1′s Andrew Marr programme that the UK’s main concern is preventing the Syrian civil war from spilling across borders into Jordan, Lebanon, or especially Turkey, a NATO ally. But with the humanitarian situation likely to worsen over the winter, he anticipated that political pressure for the Army to intervene would increase, though they would have to be “very cautious” about embarking on what would be a “huge effort.” -Telegraph 

Israel fires on Syrian positions: IDF tanks fired into Syria on Monday for the second time in as many days, after a Syrian mortar shell landed in the Golan Heights. The events played out in a similar sequence to those on Sunday, when an errant Syrian shell elicited an Israeli warning shot at the Syrian military for the first time since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. On Monday, however, the IDF said it shot “at the source of the fire in Syria,” and scored a “direct hit,” taking out two mortar launchers. The Syrian shell landed near an IDF outpost in Hazeka on the Golan. Army Radio reported that there were no injuries or damage from the shell, which hit as Israel suffered a barrage of missiles from Gaza, putting the IDF in the position of monitoring enemy fire along both the northern and southern borders. After Sunday’s mortar shell exploded, Israel sent a warning message to the UN, saying that any further firing into Israel will result “in a real response.” On Sunday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for restraint on behalf of Israel and Syria. Ban’s office said “the Secretary-General is deeply concerned by the potential for escalation. He calls for the utmost restraint and urges Syria and Israel to uphold the Disengagement Agreement, respect their mutual obligations, and halt firing of any kind across the ceasefire line.” The IDF limited its return fire to a single missile, since its policy is to only fire intensively in response to coming under major Syrian fire. Syria has been in the midst of a brutal civil war for over a year, and the IDF has been instructed to prevent the battles from spilling over into our territory. At Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that Israel was closely following events along the Syrian border, and was prepared for all possibilities on that front. –Jerusalem Post

Iran conducts largest air-defense drills ever: A joint air defense exercise of the Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began in eastern Iran on Monday. The four-day military drill, entitled the Defenders of the Sky of Velayat 4, is being conducted in an area covering 850,000 square kilometers with the participation of 8000 Iranian military forces. The maneuvers are being carried out to enhance military capabilities of Iranian forces and provide them with an opportunity to practice modern military tactics to counter new military threats against the country. During the first stage of the exercise on Monday, air defense, radar, missile, surveillance, artillery, and lookout systems were deployed across the theater of operation. Surveillance planes took photographs of and gathered information about the theatre of operation and transmitted them to ground control centers in the quickest time possible. Lookouts were quickly stationed in their positions and established multi-layer and safe communications to transfer information about the theater of operation to the country’s integrated air defense network. According to military officials, the mobility of troops, the movement of defense systems, and the coordination between armed forces were assessed during the first stage of the exercise. Brigadier General Shahrokh Shahram, the spokesman for the maneuvers, said on Sunday that new domestically designed defense systems would be unveiled during the war games. Iran’s vice president said Monday that Tehran will break the ‘grasping hands’ of newly re-elected President Barack Obama, the official IRNA news agency reported. –Tehran Times

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