QB Tom Brady and the Patriots try to repeat their regular season performance against the Broncos, via milehighreport.com

New Orleans -4 at San Francisco

The 49ers are good, but being a defensive-first team trying to stop an offensive juggernaut is tough. That’s because offensive explosiveness gives you more of a margin for error. The 49ers, meanwhile, have little margin for error given the fact that they don’t score a ton of points because they don’t score touchdowns in the red zone. So even if DE Justin Smith and company and hold down the Drew Brees-led Saints offense, I don’t expect them to operate efficiently enough offensively to get over the hump and win. New Orleans 21, San Francisco 16

New England -14 vs. Denver

This is a huge line, which is not surprising given the fact that the Patriots have scored a ton of points this season while the Broncos have struggled at times to reach the end zone. The Patriots’ defensive isn’t that great, but we figure that they will do a better job of taking away Tim Tebow’s No. 1 passing option (even if it’s down the field) than the Steelers did. If they do that, Tebow could struggle, because he hasn’t done a great job of moving through his route progressions this year. New England may give up a few plays, as they did in the first meeting between these teams, but they should do a good enough job to let Tom Brady and the offense shine. In the end, that would make the game kind of similar to the 41-23 regular-season meeting. New England 38, Denver 21

Baltimore -9 vs. Houston

The wild-card round of the playoffs couldn’t have played out better for the Ravens. They avoid a third game against their AFC North rival Steelers and instead draw a Texans team that is solid but playing with a rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates. The Texans defense is good, but we saw the Ravens smash a similar team when they thumped the 49ers at home earlier this season – and when they beat the Texans (with Matt Schaub) 29-14. Baltimore has enough offensive firepower to make some plays thanks to Ray Rice and some young receivers, and the defense should be able to force Yates into mistakes. While Yates did a good job getting the ball downfield last week against the Bengals, we’re still not confident that he can do so against a top-level defense like the Ravens – especially on the road. Baltimore 24, Houston 10

Green Bay -9 vs. N.Y. Giants

It’s possible that the Giants could go to Green Bay and win. They could outmuscle the Pack on both sides of the ball and use a ball-control approach to steal a win. But while that pattern is possible, we don’t think it’s likely. Instead, we think that the Packers team that was terrific all year long will play up to that level and be so explosive that the Giants just can’t keep up. So while this matchup reminds everyone of 2007, when the Giants won in Green Bay and then avenged a late-season 38-35 loss in the Super Bowl, our preja vu tells us there won’t be any deja vu. Green Bay 35, N.Y. Giants 17

Playoffs: 3-1
Season: 46-51-5 pro, 94-86-7 overall

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) @ New York Giants (9-7), Sunday 1:00 PM (ET)

Stats That Matter

Scoring Offense: Falcons (7th) over Giants (9th)
Scoring Defense: Falcons (18th) over Giants (25th)
Scoreability Index: Falcons (10th) over Giants (18th)
Bendability Index: Falcons (18th) over Giants (21st)
Passer Rating Diff.: Falcons (11th) over Giants (12th)
Rusher Rating Diff.: Falcons (12th) over Giants (13th)

Prediction 

New York Giants finished regular season with two solid performances in a must win situations against Jets and Cowboys. Now they are favorites to win against Atlanta Falcons and Matt Ryan who is 0-2 in the playoffs. Seems like 2007 season all over again for the Giants who finally found their pass-rush abilities. The difference to their last Super Bowl season? Almost non-existent running game, Giants rank dead last in yards per carry with 3.5 average. This gives Falcons a chance to focus on pass defense and try to disturb Eli Manning and his wide receivers. Atlanta is more balanced team on offense and if Giants will get to Ryan then Falcons can still turn to their ground attack in order to slow down Gaints’ pass rushers. I think Falcons will get a win but it will be close game decided in the last minutes of the game.

Moneyline: Falcons 27-23
Against The Spread: Falcons (+3.5)
Over/Under: Over 46.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) @ Denver Broncos (8-8), Sunday 4:30 PM (ET)

Stats That Matter

Scoring Offense: Steelers (21st) over Broncos (25th)
Scoring Defense: Steelers (1st) over Broncos (24th)
Scoreability Index: Broncos (21st) over Steelers (27th)
Bendability Index: Steelers (3rd) over Broncos (24th)
Passer Rating Diff.: Steelers (5th) over Broncos (28th)
Rusher Rating Diff.: Steelers (10th) over Broncos (18th)

Prediction 

Just like the Falcons, Steelers (12-4) have to play on the road, despite of better regular season record, and travel to Denver Broncos (8-8) who will host their first playoff game @ Mile High since 2005 season. Broncos won AFC West division and as a reward they get a home-field advantage in a Wild Card playoff game. That pretty much will be the only advantage the Broncos will have against a Pittsburgh team. Even dough Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger isn’t 100% health wise, he and the rest of the offense should have plenty of success against Denver’s pass defense. In the last few weeks in regular season it was evident that teams have cracked the code of Tebow Magic. Tebow will be running for his life on Sunday when he’ll face one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Moneyline: Steelers 20-9
Against The Spread: Steelers (-8.5)
Over/Under: Under 34.5

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) @ Houston Texans (10-6), Saturday 4:30 PM (ET)

Stats That Matter

Scoring Offense: Texans (10th) over Bengals (18th)
Scoring Defense: Texans (4th) over Bengals (9th)
Scoreability Index: Bengals (9th) over Texans (17th)
Bendability Index: Texans (12th) over Bengals (17th)
Passer Rating Diff.: Texans (3rd) over Bengals (18th)
Rusher Rating Diff.: Texans (6th) over Bengals (23rd)

Prediction 

After failing to reach the playoffs in each of its first 9 seasons, Houston Texans will face the Cincinnati Bengals in their first playoff game ever. Teams already met in Week 14 of 2011 regular season, Texans edged the Bengals in Cincinnati 20-19 with a last seconds TD pass from rookie QB T.J.Yates. Bengals too have a rookie player at quarterback. QB Andy Dalton played above any expectations in regular season, but the question is how he’ll perform under pressure in a playoff game. I expect a nervous start from both teams on offense with their rookie quarterbacks leading the way and with their defense being the better unit. In the last 6 games in regular season both, Texans and Bengals, scored exactly 18 points per game. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if this game turns out to be another low-scoring game. All in all, I think Texans hold the edge over the Bengals simply because they have the better defense and they’ll play in front of the home crowd who will finally get a taste of a playoff game.

Moneyline: Texans 23-16
Against The Spread: Texans (-3.5)
Over/Under: Over 38.5

Detroit Lions (10-6) @ New Orleans Saints (13-3), Saturday 8:00 PM (ET)

Stats That Matter

Scoring Offense: Saints (2nd) over Lions (4th)
Scoring Defense: Saints (13th) over Lions (23rd)
Scoreability Index: Lions (5th) over Saints (6th)
Bendability Index: Saints (7th) over Lions (20th)
Passer Rating Diff.: Saints (2nd) over Lions (7th)
Rusher Rating Diff.: Saints (8th) over Lions (20th)

Prediction 

The Saints will take on the Lions in Superdome again after Week 13 regular season game in which Saints cruised to a 31-17 win.  In that game Lions won the battle in useless total offense stat category, with 466 total yards over Saints’ 438. But they also had a ton of penalty yards. The Saints are a lot more disciplined team and it seems that they are peaking at the right time. They won the last  8 games of the regular season and 4 of those came against playoff teams. Lions on the other hand managed to win only 1 game against playoff teams all season. With their poor ground attack Lions have slim chances of cooling down Brees and the rest of the Saints’ offense. Despite all the hype surrounding Saints’ passing game, their running game has been outstanding too. Saints’ offensive line is one of the best in the league and they will handle Lions’ D-line. Saints get the win and earn a trip to San Francisco for a Divisional Playoff clash.

Moneyline: Saints 34-24
Against The Spread: Lions (+11.5)
Over/Under: Under 59.5

Texans QB T.J. Yates faces the Bengals again, via chron.com

Houston -3 over Cincinnati

This is the trickiest game to pick all weekend, because both teams have major warts. The Bengals didn’t beat a winning team all season, and even lost to the T.J. Yates-led Texans at home. The Texans have fallen apart due to injuries. Ultimately, we’re going to go with the home team to make enough plays defensively – thanks in large part to rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed – to get the win. Houston 14, Cincinnati 10

New Orleans -10 vs. Detroit

The Saints should win this game, and if it’s a shootout (as everyone expects) they’ll likely get a late turnover for the cover, because that’s what their defense is built to do. Credit goes to the Lions for breaking through and reaching the playoffs, but they don’t have enough defense for this matchup. New Orleans 31, Detroit 17

N.Y. Giants -3 over Atlanta

The Falcons, like the Bengals, haven’t beaten anyone great while taking care of lesser teams. The Giants, meanwhile, struggled at times against lesser competition but always rose to the occasion. Plus, the Giants team we saw beat the Cowboys in Week 17 had a healthier defense than what we’ve seen all season. That should be enough for the Giants to get one playoff win and move forward into a much more daunting second-round matchup. N.Y. Giants 24, Atlanta 20

Pittsburgh -9 at Denver

The thing that made the Broncos a threat during their midseason rally was defense, and that defense has declined in the past month or so. If Denver can’t stop Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, they won’t even come close to being in position for Tebow Time. There’s no in-between in this game – it will either go down to the wire, or the Steelers will win by 17 points or more. We think the latter is far more likely. Pittsburgh 24, Denver 3

And by the way, here’s a little bonus from someone who went 48-34-2 ATS in NCAA picks this year: LSU beats Alabama by more than the 1-point spread. We’ve believed for a while that the Tigers are the best team in college football, as shown by regular-season wins over 3 BCS bowl winners – and all 3 away from home (Oregon in Dallas, at Alabama, at West Virginia). They’ll prove it again by winning the national championship Monday night.

Season: 43-50-5 pro, 91-84-7 overall

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. Normally, we note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week. But this week, we go from comparing all 32 teams to focusing on the 12 playoff teams. All of these teams were at the 7 level or higher last week.

Broncos QB Tim Tebow makes his playoff debut this week, via orlandosentinel.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers closed out the season with a win even after sitting QB Aaron Rodgers and CB Charles Woodson, among others. At 15-1, Green Bay is not a perfect team, but they have a dynamic offense and a defense that causes turnovers. We’ve seen in recent years that this is a potent combination in the postseason. Green Bay may not be built to win a slugfest, but there aren’t many teams that could force the Packers into that kind of game.

9 – Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints – The Saints closed with a flourish to finish 13-3, but it wasn’t enough for them to get a bye week. The Saints are nearly the Packers’ equal, and are built in much the same way. But the path New Orleans will have to take – a home game against a dangerous Detroit offense, followed by a road trip to San Francisco – may be too much. We see the Saints winning this week (something like 45-31), but we’re not sure they’ll even get to Green Bay for a rematch of Week 1.

The Ravens, meanwhile, earned a bye by locking down the AFC North. That’s key, because it takes away the possibility of laying an egg in the first round. We rate the Ravens above the Patriots because we like their ceiling more, but Baltimore hasn’t always been the most consistent team. But we can certainly see them gearing up for two big games and making it to the Super Bowl.

8 – New England Patriots – The Patriots earned home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but their defense once again showed major holes against Miami in Week 17. New England won’t be able to survive against Baltimore or Pittsburgh if they fall behind early like they have in the last two weeks. But we’re not sure those problems can be solved during a single bye week.

7 – San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers are unlike any of the other top teams in the NFC and maybe even in the league in that they’re built around an elite defense. If they can turn their divisional-round game (likely against the Saints) into a slobberknocker, they might be able to get a playoff win. But Alex Smith, Frank Gore and company don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Saints and Packers and Patriots. The 49ers simply aren’t good enough on red-zone offense to make a long playoff run.

6 – Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers are an odd team. They have the look of a contender, since they are coming off a Super Bowl appearance last season and have a championship pedigree. But it will be interesting to see if the Steelers really are at that level. While the offense has incredible punch with WRs Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, we don’t think the Steelers can beat the Patriots or Ravens on the road. But they should have enough firepower to get through a trip to Denver this week.

5 – New York Giants, Detroit Lions – We put these teams above other wild-card weekend participants because of ceiling. The Lions have a high ceiling because of offensive firepower. The defense can’t stop the pass, which is a bad omen heading into a game against the Saints, but if the Lions somehow create a few turnovers, they could outscore the Saints.

The Giants, meanwhile, looked like a team that’s finally getting healthy against the Cowboys. With playmakers like WR Victor Cruz on offense and DE Jason Pierre-Paul on defense, the Giants can put together a peak performance. We see them winning this week against Atlanta, and if so they’ll challenge the Packers because they always seem to rise to the occasion.

4 – Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are a good team but not a great team. They can beat lesser teams, but they really haven’t risen to the occasion to beat a better team at any point this year. That’s enough for a playoff berth, but it’s not enough to advance now that the postseason has arrived. We see them being one-and-done again this year.

3 – Houston Texans – The Texans aren’t the team they could have been without major injury problems, but they still have enough upside to get a home win this weekend. Who knows who will play quarterback, but with a strong running game and an attacking defense should be enough for a feel-good moment in the franchise’s first playoff game.

2 – Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are a junior version of the Panthers, beating lesser teams but never rising to the occasion against a better opponent. They even lost to the T.J. Yates-led Texans a month ago. Credit to Cincinnati for making it to the good level in QB Andy Dalton’s rookie year, but the run ends this week.

1 – Denver Broncos- The bloom seems to be off the Tim Tebow rose after a three-game losing streak, but the real problem is that the defense has also declined. We believe Tebow has shown enough to earn an offseason of development as the starting quarterback, but that doesn’t mean we expect him to overcome the Steelers this week. At least Broncos fans get to enjoy the buildup to a home playoff game.

PK David Akers celebrates successful craziness, via turfshowtimes.com

Crazy Kickers of the Week 2011
Week 17: PK David Akers, 49ers
Week 14: P Andy Lee, 49ers
Week 12: PK Dave Rayner, Bills
Week 11: P Michael Koenen, Buccaneers
Week 10: PK David Akers, 49ers
Week 9: P Chas Henry, Eagles
Week 6: P Shane Lechler, Raiders
Week 5: P Daniel Sepulveda, Steelers
Week 4: PK Mason Crosby, Packers
Week 2: P Michael Koenen, Buccaneers
Week 1: P Sam Koch, Ravens
Preseason Week 4: P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs
Preseason Week 2: P Andy Lee, 49ers
Preseason Week 1: PK Josh Brown, Rams

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings 24-21, Against The Spread: Vikings (+0.5), Result: Bears 17-13

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Pick: Lions 27-23, Against The Spread: Lions (+1.5), Result: Packers 45-41

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Pick: Texans 24-20, Against The Spread: Texans (+2.5), Result: Titans 23-22

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars 20-17, Against The Spread: Colts (+4.5), Result: Jaguars 19-13

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Pick: 49ers 24-10, Against The Spread: 49ers (-10.5), Result: Raiders 49ers 34-27

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins 26-17, Against The Spread: Dolphins (-1.5) , Result: Dolphins 19-17

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints 37-27, Against The Spread: Saints (-7.5), Result: Saints 45-17

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles 31-17, Against The Spread: Eagles (-8.5), Result: Eagles 34-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons 27-17, Against The Spread: Buccaneers (+13.5), Result: Falcons 45-24

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals 24-20, Against The Spread: Bengals (+2.5), Result: Ravens 24-16

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Pick: Steelers 24-13, Against The Spread: Steelers (-7.5), Result: Steelers 13-9

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Chiefs 22-17, Against The Spread: Chiefs (+3.5), Result: Chiefs 7-3

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Pick: Raiders 31-23, Against The Spread: Raiders (-2.5), Result: Chargers 38-26

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Seahawks 24-21, Against The Spread: Seahawks (+3.5), Result: Cardinals 23-20

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants 23-20, Against The Spread: Cowboys (+3.5), Result: Giants 31-14

Week 17:
Non-spread: 10-6, Against The Spread: 6-10

]]> http://instantreplay1.wordpress.com/2012/01/01/week-17-nfl-picks/ Sun, 01 Jan 2012 16:01:32 +0000 Gregor http://instantreplay1.wordpress.com/2012/01/01/week-17-nfl-picks/ To all the viewers and readers of my Instant Replay blog site, let me wish you a Happy New Year 2012! Gregor

Here are my final regular season picks for Week 17 in the NFL. Already looking forward to upcoming playoff games.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Patriots will do everything to clinch home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs. They have to win against Buffalo, Bills have been playing better lately after their meltdown earlier on in the season and they did beat the Patriots at home way back in Week 3, but this time Patriots will be focused on their goal and will get that home-field advantage.

Pick: Patriots, 30-20
Against The Spread: Bills (+12.5)

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). With a loss last week, Bears have been officially eliminated from the playoff race. Before QB Jay Cutler got injured things did look a whole lot different for the Bears, with 7-3 record they were playoff bound team. After the injury, Bears didn’t win a single game. I think Vikings will show more will to win this meaningless game and will end their season with a win at home.
Pick: Vikings: 24-21
Against The Spread: Vikings (+0.5)

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Fighting with Falcons for 5th seed in NFC playoff Lions will be motivated to get a win at Lambeau Field. Green Bay Packers on the other hand already clinched everything that could be clinched and will rest their starters to avoid any possible injuries.
Pick: Lions, 27-23
Against The Spread: Lions (-1.5)

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). It’s hard to believe, but Titans are still in the hunt for last playoff spot in AFC playoffs. Texans already secured 3rd seed and can’t move higher even if they win this game. They too might rest their starters but they’ll have their defensive coordinator Wade Phillips back and they’d like to finish regular season with  a home win.
Pick: Texans, 24-20
Against The Spread: Texans (+2.5)

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). I wonder how many fans will show up at the stadium to watch this game in Jacksonville. Both Colts and Jaguars had a disappointing season. Should be a low-scoring game in which Colts will try not to win it to secure No.1 draft pick in 2012 NFL draft.
Pick: Jaguars, 20-17
Against The Spread: Colts (+4.5)

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). 49ers were hoping they could rest their starters going in St. Louis to play the final regular season game, but with Saints’ win on Monday Night they need this game to clinch 2nd seed. Rams on other hand, didn’t show much on offense and will have hard time scoring against stout 49ers’ defense.
Pick: 49ers, 24-10
Against The Spread: 49ers (-10.5)

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Records sometimes don’t show the real strength of a team, Dolphins are 5-10, Jets are 8-7 and still fighting for playoff spot. I think Dolphins are the better team here even without RB Reggie Bush and they will show that with a win at home on Sunday.
Pick: Dolphins, 26-17
Against The Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). That win on Monday Night was pretty impressive from the Saints, Brees broke Marino’s single season passing record set in 1984 and the Saints are on pace to break Rams’ record from 2000 season when they gained 7075 total yards. But Panthers too didn’t have problems so far to pile on the yards, this will be interesting game in which veteran quarterback shows the way out to rookie quarterback.
Pick: Saints, 37-27
Against The Spread: Saints (-7.5)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday 1:00 PM (ET). Lately, Eagles are playing one of the best football in the NFL. They will miss the playoffs because of their inconsistency earlier on in the season, when they failed to finish games with big 4th quarter leads. In last game Eagles will face division rival – Redskins, a team who’s been even more inconsistent.
Pick: Eagles, 31-17
Against The Spread: Eagles (-8.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). Can’t see a scenario in which Bucs would win this game. Their meltdown continues in Atlanta, coach Morris might be the next head coach in this season to lose his job.

Pick: Falcons, 27-17
Against The Spread: Buccaneers (+13.5)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). Without Ray Lewis Ravens went 4-0 allowing only 12.5 points per game, with Ray Lewis Baltimore allowed 18.2 points per game with a 7-4 record. LB Ray Lewis will be in the Ravens’ lineup on Sunday and  the Bengals are playing at home which should always be an advantage in divisional games.
Pick: Bengals, 24-20
Against The Spread: Bengals (+2.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). Steelers have still a lot to play for, if they can beat the Browns on the road and if Bengals beat the Ravens then  the Steelers would be division champs and would earn a first-round bye. That’s a big if of course, but Steelers will take care of their part of the equation with a win against Cleveland.
Pick: Steelers, 24-13
Against The Spread: Steelers (-7.5)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). As if schedule makers knew all along that QB Kyle Orton will return to his former team and in regular season finale outshine the Tebows in an important divisional game Mile High above sea level. Hollywood script at its best.
Pick: Chiefs, 22-17
Against The Spread: Chiefs (+3.5)

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). So long Norval Eugene Turner. San Diego Chargers were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, but again they showed big-time inefficiency. Raiders have a lot more to play for in this game, playing in front of energetic home crowd they will beat the Chargers.
Pick: Raiders, 31-23
Against The Spread:  Raiders (-2.5)

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals, Sunday 4:15 PM (ET). One of rare games this week without any playoff implications. Teams will battle it out for the second place in a much improved NFC West division.

Pick: Seahawks, 24-21
Against The Spread: Seahawks (+3.5)

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants, Sunday 8:30 PM (ET). NFL took a ‘save the best for last’ approach and moved this Do-or-Die game to prime time. This will be 100th game between the Cowboys and the Giants. Cowboys lead the series 56-41-2. The winner takes the NFC East division crown and a 4th seed in NFC playoffs. After the game New York Giants will have the right to call themselves division champions.
Pick: Giants, 23-20
Against The Spread: Cowboys (+3.5)

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: Broncos 27-21, Against The Spread: Broncos (-3.5), Result: Bills 40-14

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals 23-20, Against The Spread: Cardinals (+4.5), Result: Bengals 23-16

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Ravens 28-17, Against The Spread: Browns (+13.5), Result: Ravens 20-14

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans 24-18, Against The Spread: Jaguars (-7.5), Result: Titans 23-17

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs 20-17, Against The Spread: Chiefs (-0.5), Result: Raiders 16-13 OT

St. Louis Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers 27-13, Against The Spread: Rams (+15.5) , Result: Steelers 27-0

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots 27-22, Against The Spread: Dolphins (+10.5), Result: Patriots 27-24

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Redskins 24-16, Against The Spread: Redskins (-6.5), Result: Vikings 33-26

New York Giants @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets 24-23, Against The Spread: Giants (+2.5), Result: Giants 29-14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: Panthers 30-20, Against The Spread: Panthers (-7.5), Result: Panthers 48-16

San Diego Chargers @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Chargers 30-27, Against The Spread: Chargers (+2.5), Result: Lions 38-10

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys 27-26, Against The Spread: Eagles (+2.5), Result: Eagles 20-7

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: 49ers 19-17, Against The Spread: 49ers (-2.5), Result: 49ers 19-17

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers 27-17, Against The Spread: Bears (+12.5), Result: Packers 35-21

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints 27-24, Against The Spread: Falcons (+6.5), Result: Saints 45-16

Week 16:
Non-spread: 9-7, Against The Spread: 6-10

Overall record:
Non-spread: 159-81
Against The Spread: 92-84

]]> http://footballrelativity.wordpress.com/2011/12/24/preja-vu-giantsjets/ Sat, 24 Dec 2011 00:30:11 +0000 Robert Neely http://footballrelativity.wordpress.com/2011/12/24/preja-vu-giantsjets/ For National Football Authority, we previewed the Gotham City matchup between the Giants and Jets. Click here to read all about it.

RB Frank Gore and the 49ers face the Seahawks, via nydailynews.com

NCAA picks
Louisville +1 vs. N.C. State (Charlotte)
Texas -3 vs. California (San Diego)
Florida State -3 vs. Notre Dame (Orlando)
Baylor -10 vs. Washington (San Antonio)

NFL picks
Arizona +4 at Cincinnati
Kansas City -2 vs. Oakland
New York Jets -3 vs. New York Giants
Detroit -3 vs. San Diego
Dallas -3 vs. Philadelphia
Seattle +2 vs. San Francisco
New Orleans -7 vs. Atlanta

Last week: 1-0 college, 2-5 pro, 3-5 overall
Season: 45-33-2 college, 41-46-4 pro, 86-79-6 overall

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts, Thursday 8:20 PM (ET). That was an ugly game from Texans last week. There was no sign of tough Houston’s defense. Texans have a chance to regain momentum against a bad Colts team who got themselves first win of the season last week.This one also won’t be pretty, but Houston shows enough to bounce back with a win on the road.
Pick: Texans, 27-20
Against The Spread: Texans (-5.5)

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Denver Tebows had their share of reality check last week against the Patriots. They are still a solid team, especially on defense, and they will bounce back against Buffalo Bills. Bills can’t find a way to win, they’ve lost 7 straight, 8 straight coming up against Denver.
Pick: Broncos: 27-21
Against The Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Early on in the season Cardinals lost some very close games, lately they’ve managed to win a few of those close games. Fighting for playoffs, Cardinals now have to travel East facing Bengals, a team who also have their chances to make the playoffs. This time Arizona falls short and lose another close game, ending their hopes for the playoffs.
Pick: Bengals, 23-20
Against The Spread: Cardinals (+4.5)

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Baltimore Ravens showed again how inconsistent they can be, especially on the road. Facing division rival – the Browns they’ll focus again and bounce back after last week’s loss. With a win at home Ravens stay on top of AFC North division.
Pick: Ravens, 28-17
Against The Spread: Browns (+13.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Disappointing game from the Titans team last week, I expected them to win against winless Colts. Jaguars aren’t much better than the Colts and Titans get to play them at home. Titans win again with another good game from RB Chris Johnson.
Pick: Titans, 24-18
Against The Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Great performance by the Chiefs last week. They stay at home on a short week to face the Raiders who have to travel East. With good QB play from Kyle Orton Chiefs have a chance to win second straight at home.
Pick: Chiefs, 20-17
Against The Spread: Chiefs (-0.5)

St. Louis Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Maybe it would be a wise thing to do to sit QB Big Ben for the rest of the season and give him time to get healthy now that the Steelers probably lost all chances to secure themselves a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. With or without their starting quarterback Pittsburgh will win at home against the Rams who will be again without their starting QB Sam Bradford.
Pick: Steelers, 27-13
Against The Spread: Rams (+15.5)

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Patriots showed some improvement on defense last week, Dolphins on other hand have been playing solid on defense almost all year. Still, Patriots have enough offensive weapons to beat the Dolphins especially their air-attack will cause Miami big problems.
Pick: Patriots, 27-22
Against The Spread: Dolphins (+10.5)

Minnesota Vikings @Washington Redskins, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Redskins have been an up and down team,  lately they are playing good football again, after beating division rivals Giants they now face Vikings team who got embarrassed last week by the Saints. Redskins won’t embarrass the Vikings but they’ll do enough to beat the Vikings at home.
Pick: Redskins, 24-16
Against The Spread: Redskins (-6.5)

New York Giants @ New York Jets, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Without playoff implications this would be a huge game, both teams want to punish the other. This year both teams are still in the hunt for the playoffs which makes this game even more interesting. Giants always show up in meaningful games, but Rex Ryan will have his team ready.
Pick: Jets, 24-23
Against The Spread: Giants (+2.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers, Saturday 1:00 PM (ET). Cam Newton and Company will probably be able to decide this game before halftime. It’s obvious that the Bucs gave up on the season. Panthers score 30 and take a win at home.
Pick: Panthers, 30-20
Against The Spread: Panthers (-7.5)

San Diego Chargers @ Detroit Lions, Saturday 4:05 PM (ET). Chargers showed many faces in this year’s NFL season, they played well in September, horrible in October and November and are playing great in December. They will continue with great performances, this time against good Detroit team who is looking to clinch playoff spot.
Pick: Chargers, 30-27
Against The Spread: Chargers (+2.5)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys, Saturday 4:15 PM (ET). Can’t decide on this game. Cowboys… Eagles… Cowboys… A healthy Michael Vick should cause problems for Dallas, but my gut instinct tells me Cowboys take a close game at home ending Philadelphia’s dreams.
Pick: Cowboys, 27-26
Against The Spread: Eagles (+2.5)

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks, Saturday 4:15 PM (ET). Important game for both NFC West teams. 49ers need this one in order to stay in the hunt for first-round bye in the NFC playoffs, Seahawks on other hand are still fighting for Wild-card playoff spot. Like many other games this will be decided on the line of scrimmage. Who controls the line gets the win, I’ll take the 49ers’ D-line over Seattle’s O-line.
Pick: 49ers, 26-20
Against The Spread:  49ers (-2.5)

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers, Sunday 8:20 PM (ET). So much for the perfect season from the Packers. Last week Chiefs showed the way how it can be done against Green Bay Packers. Packers will again face tough defense when Bears come in town. But Bears, without QB Jay Cutler and RB Matt Forte, will have hard time scoring points even against not so good Packers’ defense. Packers get  a win and a home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs.
Pick: Packers, 27-17
Against The Spread: Bears (+12.5)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints, Monday 8:30 PM (ET). Another great game on Monday Night. Falcons will try hard to get a revenge for a Week 10 overtime loss at home. Saints QB Drew Brees needs 305 yards to surpass Marino’s all-time single season passing record. He might get the record, but more important, with a win Saints will clinch NFC South division.
Pick: Saints, 27-24
Against The Spread: Falcons (+6.5)