RECAP

Readers who went long at long level would have booked 25- 30 poimts profit on

an insipid day for trading.

Nifty

Short Level

Short nifty future around 5135 with 5158 as stop loss for targets 5085, 5070, 5045.

Long Level

Breaking and trading above 5158 nifty future may move to 5180, 5200, 5230.

BHEL – Trading Pick

BHEL appears weak on charts. For tomorrow’s trading 2235 is critical for BHEL.

If BHEL future is unable to trade above 2235 with volumes, it will move to 2182, 2150 and 2125.

2255 should be maintained as stop loss for this trade.

BANK NIFTY TRADING LEVELS

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry’s view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss.

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What a show by bulls. Nifty almost achieved the second target as mentioned in weekly outlook.

Nifty

Long Level

Buy nifty future at 5115 with 5092 as stop loss for targets 5160, 5210, 5230.

Short Level

Breaking and trading below 5092, nifty future may move to 5060 and 5025.

Bank Nifty Trading Levels

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry’s view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss.

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In the last six month the risk appetite has risen significantly in all asset classes. Stock indices like Nifty, Hang Seng and Kospi are up between 70 percent to 80 percent. Western indices have also done well with a rolling year to date rise of 25 percent to 30 percent. Gold has risen nearly 20% after breaching its $1000 barrier and crude oil has nearly doubled in price from March lows. This rally which was largely on back of expectation of a stabilizing world and strong monetary flows needed a breather. The financial market which was recovering from global financial crisis was jolted by the Dubai government announcement that it will ask creditors for a standstill on debt worth billions of dollars of two of its flagship firms, Dubai World, which runs 49 ports around the world, and real estate developer Nakheel.

Similar events caused markets to go in a tailspin when Lehman brothers announced its bankruptcy. Surprisingly Dubai’s standstill announcement had a more sizable impact on European volatility indexes than the Lehman bankruptcy. The VSTOXX index climbed by 28.2% yesterday, compared with a 20.5% rise the day after Lehman filed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down nearly 500 points (4.4%) on September 15, 2008 after Lehman filed compared to a 3.5% cut across all the European Bourses as US was closed on account of Thanksgiving.

Market pricing currently discounts $50-75 billion in market value losses from the Dubai standstill announcement which includes direct ripple effects. This is quite high in comparison to the market estimate of net insolvency of Lehman brothers which was estimated at $5bn by Bank of England. Bailout discussion in case of Lehman was announced before hand and the plug was pulled unexpectedly. In case of Dubai World announcement the fundamental impact is somewhat skewed in terms of the economic assets involved. The projects financed by Dubai’s borrowings in economic textbooks terms are more of luxury items and should be treated as financially isolated. Lehman brothers business was interconnected to nearly all areas of finance and lead to strong ripple effects and widespread contagion. This is evident from the fact that during bankruptcy proceedings a lawyer from The Royal Bank of Scotland Group said the company is facing between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion in claims against Lehman partially based on an unsecured guarantee from Lehman.

If the market sentiment was more fragile than it is right now, we would have been more concerned. With easy liquidity and availability of cheap credit the increased volatility in global markets more likely reflects profit taking against outsized gains, rather than a genuine expectation that this will ripple into the global economy. Construction and engineering firms with business concentration in Dubai, and consequently the exposures of their relationship banks are the one which should be closely watched but the fundamental effects of this would not lead to a severe contagion as was the case with bankruptcy filing of the big investment banks last year.

Sahil Kapoor

Assumptions:

All calculations are based on free recommendations on the blog.

Readers would have traded one contract of stock future and
two contracts of index future.

Calculations do not take into consideration, trades done in
bank nifty future.

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Happy Trading
www.tripleint.com

There’s a local restaurant that serves some really good pie fillings (though I’m not fond of their production crusts.) Since our family is now officially a two-pie family, though, it could be pretty expensive to spend $9, twice, every time we get a craving for particular pie flavors.

One filling my family enjoys a lot if this sour cream custard. It takes under three minutes to mix up, spends some time in the oven, and then cooling, and can be topped with whatever favorite topping you might have (or, the topping could be mixed in before baking. We leave it naked, and let everyone customize their tops). The flavor is similar to a nice tangy cheese cake, but with a softer texture, more like a firm custard or even flan.

I like the pie with lemon “crud” (I’ll share that recipe another time), but most of the rest of the family likes it topped with a simple stovetop-thickened blueberry sauce. Cherry pie filling, caramel sauce… you can really experiment with the flavors. You can even blend in some coconut flakes for a quick, nearly-fool-proof coconut custard base.

Preheat the oven to a minimum of 325*, maximum of 350*. You have some leeway in this; at a lower temperature it will take longer to set, of course.

Use your preferred crust, either a pastry style, or a pressed crumb style. We usually do a graham cracker crust, but it would be good with gingersnap or vanilla wafer crust, too. Prep your crust ahead, as the filling takes very little to prepare.

Blend together:

1 1/2 cups sour cream

1/2 cup sugar (I occasionally use brown sugar for a slightly different flavor.)

3 large eggs (for a firmer custard, use another egg.)

1 1/2 teaspoons vanilla (or substitute your chosen extract.)

2 tablespoons flour

pinch of salt

Pour the mixture into the pie crust, and pop it in the oven until it’s just set in the middle, and doesn’t wobble wetly when you jiggle the pie plate. Cool well and chill before topping and serving.

If you want a different serving style, fill a tart pan, or mini-tarts; you could also bake this filling in cupcake tins as you might for mini-cheesecakes, or spread it out in a large cake pan for a more layer-bar presentation.

This has become one staple pie for holidays and special occasions at our house… I hope you’ll enjoy it at your house!

Just a year after the global downturn  derailed  Dubai’s explosive growth, the  city is now  so  swamped  in  debt that  it’s  asking  for a  six-month  reprieve  on  paying  its bills.

Dubai Debt Fears Grip World Markets

This has cast a shadow on a world only just emerging from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s,  knocking markets  from Sydney to Sao Paulo and raising questions about Dubai’s reputation  as a magnet for international investment.

For India, which has tens of thousands of its citizens living  and working in the emirate,  the concerns are more direct:  thousands of its expats staring at job losses and  the economy, sharply reduced trade.

India, which gets nearly a quarter of the remittances from the United Arab Emirates and  has lakhs of laborers working in the region, could be worse off than most other nations  if the crisis escalates into a full-blown one  like the Russian or Argentinean crises of the past.

India’s exports to the UAE stood at $23.92 billion in FY09.

It is very likely that we may see one more leg of job losses in Dubai.

The only consolation for the region is that Abu Dhabi is booming.

Indian shares and the rupee fell in sync with other global markets where investors are fleeing for safety after Dubai debt trap concerns.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Friday tumbled over 451.63 points to 16,403.30 points in the first ten minutes of trading on hectic selling by funds in line with weak global cues and concerns over Dubai’s debt.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty dropped by 140.50 points to 4865.05 points.

Brokers said the selling focus was more on banking and realty stocks after Dubai’s debt problems revived concerns about the global financial system and rattled markets across Europe and Asia.

Indian rupee fell 24 paisa to 46.55 against the dollar.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.4%.

Most European indices were about 2% lower after Asia tumbled.

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.6%, its biggest drop since August, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index slipped 1.1%. U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Credit-default swaps tied to debt sold by Dubai rose as much as 131 basis points to 571.

“Dubai isn’t doing risk appetite any favours at all and the markets remain in a vulnerable state of mind,” said Market analysts.

“We’re still in an environment where we’re vulnerable to financial shocks of any sort and this is one of those.”