You have heard this as often as I have.  You may even have said it.  When I first started learning about the Electoral College, I too began to wonder just how much my vote counts.

I’m older now.  I’ve voted in many elections and I have seen my choices win and lose.  I have come to a startling conclusion.  If I don’t vote, how do I know my vote wouldn’t have counted?

We have a unique political system in the United States.  Our Founding Fathers and many who have followed in their footsteps have seen to that for us.  Our Constitution sets requirements for national elections and when they are ignored and/or abused, we have absolute chaos much like we have now in Washington, DC.

Many states have primary elections.  This gives a voter a direct vote for a choice from a list of candidates for one or more of the political parties.  This is the point where some voters feel that their votes stop counting.  If the candidate of their choice doesn’t win, and if they don’t particularly want to vote for the candidate from the same political party who did win, they wonder why they even voted.

Believe me, your vote counted.  My vote counted.  It mattered that we took the time to mark the ballot, and even if the candidate of our choice did not win the primary to advance to the General Election, our vote was important.  It is only when we choose not to vote at all that our vote doesn’t count.

Today is Election Day in several important races, none of which are in the state where I live.  My vote doesn’t count in those states holding elections today.  Yours does!  Do not sit at home thinking your vote will not make any difference.  Today’s elections matter more than you might at first realize.

If you live in NY-23, you have a choice to make that could affect me in my home state.  I would appreciate knowing that you at least spoke up for me in your election.  One vote – your vote – could be the one who pushes the Conservative Candidate over the top.  Do we really want one more liberal voice in Washington?

The Virginia gubernatorial race is important more to the State of Virginia than to me in my home state on the face of the issues, but in the overall scheme of things, you are speaking for me when you vote for the Conservative Candidate.

New York doesn’t mean a great deal to those of us who live in the Southern United States because we have a tendency to see New York as a liberal foothold which has lost touch with “the real world.”  Can you see how important your vote for the Conservative Candidate is to your state and to people like me living in another part of the country?

In a special election in California which has largely been overlooked in this election season, there is an opportunity to elect a Conservative Candidate over a liberal to serve in the United States House of Representatives from District 10.  The same question applies here – do we really need another liberal voice in Washington, DC?

If there is an election today in the city, county or State where you live, please exercise your constitutional right to have your voice heard.  Do not dodge this important process because your vote does count.  It counts for everyone in America who feels the same way you do.  When you cast your vote for the candidate of your choice, you are representing every Conservative person living in the United States.

You have the right to use your vote to tell your State and our nation that we want to return our Conservative voice to the State House and the US Congress.  Stand up and be heard, John Q. Citizen!  Your vote counts twice – once for yourself and once for me.  When you refuse to have your vote counted, you are refusing to have my vote counted as well.

The rest of us are watching and waiting.  You have several hours remaining before the polls close.  It only takes a minute or two to speak up for Conservatives in your State and our Nation.

Nothing left but the waiting.  Go Owens, Go Deeds (for moral support), Go Corzine!!!!!!!

Author: Rory B. Bellows

Public Policy Polling, a democrat party polling outfit, has new polls in the NJ Gov race and the NY 23 special election that show clear momentum for the Republican and Conservative candidates in those races.

Their NJ Gov poll has Christie 47, Corzine 41 and Daggett at 11.

The NY 23 poll has Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading the pack with 51% and Democrat Bill Owens with 34% and liberal Dede Scozzafava, who suspended her campaign and today endorsed owners, bringing up the rear with 13%. In a head to head matchup with Owens, Hoffman curbstomps him 54-38.

Can Alaska Democrats hope to trip up Sarah Palin in 2010? At the very least, they now have a credible candidate for the gubernatorial race: Bob Poe, a former Alaska State Commissioner of Administration.

There is no question that Poe will face a very uphill race, and it is extremely difficult to even conceive of Palin losing in her re-election bid. Ted Stevens’s quasi-survival and Don Young’s victory this past November only increased Alaska’s profile as a staunchly red state, so how could Democrat even hope of forcing Palin to break a sweat?

On the other hand, the Democratic nominee in this race will undoubtedly become one of the better known challengers of the country because of Palin’s profile and her national ambitions. Democrats might rally to his side in the hope of derailing Palin, and the press is likely to cover this race more than it deserves – just as the 2006 New York Senate race got extensive coverage.

Finally, there is a clear benefit for Democrats to fielding a credible candidate, even if there is little to no chance that the incumbent loses. In 2010, Palin is likely to spend as much time as she can traveling across the country to rally the conservative base and raise money for fellow Republicans. Giving her no reason to spend any time in Alaska would free her up to build an extensive national network, just as Barack Obama did during the 2006 midterms.

On the other hand, for Palin to be forced to think about her re-election bid will take time away from those travels; that would hurt other Republican candidates and it will damage her own 2012 prospects.

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Over the past decade, New Jersey Republicans have been as hapless as their New England counterparts. Voters detest Democratic politicians and Trenton’s fishy politics, but they hate the GOP even more – and that allows Democrats to survive September scares cycle after cycle. Republicans are hoping that Governor John Corzine’s re-election race in 2009 finally proves to be their breakthrough; and Corzine, after all, has attracted his own share of controversy over the years.

The GOP just managed to recruit a top-tier candidate, Chris Christie. The former U.S. Attorney attracted attention for prosecuting corruption cases in the state, and that is exactly why Republicans is excited by his candidacy. They hope Christie can come to represent the promise of a clean politics against Trenton’s Democratic establishment, allowing the GOP to improve its image and finally snatch away a statewide victory.

Before setting his sights on Corzine, Christie will first have to survive a contested primary. In the past, primary outcomes have hurt the GOP by eliminating the more electable candidate; but Christie should have enough establishment support to make his way to the general election and he could prove a tough opponent for Corzine. Much will depend on the national environment and whether Corzine has to carry on his shoulders the unpopularity of Washington Democrats on top of that of Trenton Democrats.

Ever since Barack Obama’s election, there has been intense speculation surrounding his Cabinet positions. A lot of it has concerned the electoral consequences of tapping Governors, Senators and House members: Would the seat switch parties, who would take over, and what would it mean for the 2010 landscape?

Now that Obama has filled his Cabinet, it is time to offer is a rundown of elected officials who were nominated, those who were rumored but did not make the cut – and what all of this means to the political landscape.

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Those who were tapped

• Hillary Clinton, New York

The unexpected news that Hillary Clinton was being considered for a Secretary of State position captivated the political class throughout November. The deed was finally consummated, capping a remarkable year for Hillary and Barack. Clinton’s nomination also opened a vacancy in one of the country’s largest and most Democratic state, focused everyone’s attention on Governor David Paterson and subsequently on Caroline Kennedy, added a Senate race to the 2010 line-up and provided the GOP a glimmer of hope of picking-up a seat.

• Tom Dashle, South Dakota

Some Democrats dreamed of Dashle challenging John Thune to a Senate rematch in 2010 – a scenario that is now foreclosed by Dashle’s appointment as HHS Secretary. However, it was always very unlikely that Dashle would jump in the race, so Obama’s pick changed very little electorally.

• Rahm Emanuel, IL-05

IL-05 is a Chicago-based district that is heavily Democratic. Such an open seat can only mean one thing: A chaotic intra-party battle between dozens of city-level Democrats who have been waiting for years to move up the ladder, with no possibility that a Republican even dream about winning the seat.

• Janet Napolitano, Arizona

Janet Napolitano’s appointment to the Homeland Security Department is Obama’s one nomination that has already cost Democrats a seat. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer will take over as the state’s Governor. Given that Brewer was already mentioned as a possible contender for an open seat in 2010 (Napolitano would not have been able to run due to term limit laws), it seems a safe bet to say that she will run now that she can do so as an incumbent. This gives Republicans the clear upper hand in what was expected to be one of the most competitive open seats of 2010.

• Bill Richardson, New Mexico

Richardson’s Cabinet prospects seemed to end with Hillary Clinton’s nomination to Foggy Bottom, but the New Mexico Governor will be reborn as Obama’s Secretary of Commerce. A Democrat, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, will take over and will thus have the upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Due to term-limits, Richardson was not allowed to run for re-election which means that the seat would have been open. But Denish, who was already considered a likely candidate before Richardon’s nomination, can now run as an incumbent.

• Ken Salazar, Colorado

Ken Salazar’s nomination to the Interior Department created the fourth Senate vacancy due to Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will choose Salazar’s successor, and Democrats have a deep enough bench in Colorado that Ritter has plenty of contenders to choose from. (I summarized the politics of this appointment two days ago.) Salazar’s departure from the Senate gives an opening to Republicans, but two factors minimize its impact. First, Salazar was up for re-election in 2010, so this will not add an additional seat for Democrats to defend. Second, Salazar was not safe to start with.

• Hilda Solis, CA-32

Rep. Solis’s appointment as Secretary of Labor was unexpected, but the special election that will be triggered after Solis’s confirmation won’t give the DCCC many headaches: CA-32 is a very Democratic district that gave John Kerry 62% of the vote in 2004.

• Tom Vilsack, Iowa

Vilsack’s unexpected nomination as Secretary of Agriculture has one immediate electoral consequence: we are now sure that Vilsack will not run for Senate in 2010. Vilsack might have been the only Democrat strong enough to credibly challenge Senator Chuck Grassley. Vilsack’s nomination might also make it more likely that Grassley run for re-election since he no longer has to worry about spending two grueling years on the campaign trail. All of this said, a Vilsack candidacy was only a possibility, and many considered it unlikely.

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Those who were not:

• Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, Maine

Some Democrats were pushing the idea of tapping one of Maine’s two moderate Senators as one of the Republican Cabinet members Obama had promised in order to allow Maine’s Democratic Governor to appoint their (Democratic) successor.

• John Corzine, New Jersey

After Larry Summer’s name faded in mid-November, John Corzine was mentioned as a possible Secretary of the Treasury. This would have elevated State Senate President Richard Codey as acting Governor, a position he already occupied after Jim McGreevey’s resignation in 2004. It would also have meant a far more entertaining gubernatorial race in 2009.

• Arthur Davis, AL-07

Rep. Davis is said to have statewide ambitions – perhaps as early as 2010 – so this seat could soon be open, but Democrats have little to worry about: This is a heavily Democratic and African-American district that gave Kerry 64% of the vote in 2004.

• Chet Edwards, TX-17

First mentioned as a vice-presidential contender over the summer, Edwards saw his name back in the mix during Obama’s transition efforts. Edwards represents a heavily Republican district, and it would have been very difficult to envision Democrats holding on to his seat in a special election had Edwards joined Obama’s Cabinet.

• Jennifer Granholm, Michigan

Michigan’s Governor was mentioned as a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Energy and Secretary of Labor. Her appointment would have elevated Democrat John Cherry in the Governor’s position and given the Democratic Party the early upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. As it stands now, Granholm is term-limited and the race will be one of the country’s most competitive open seats.

• Stephanie Herseth, South Dakota
  

Rep. Stephanie Herseth was mentioned as one of the finalists for the Secretary of Agriculture positions, and her appointment would have been a nightmare for House Democrats. South Dakota remains a Republican enough state that the GOP would have had a great shot at reclaiming the seat in a spring special election. This could have consequences down the line for Tim Johnson’s Senate succession.

• John Kerry, Massachusetts

The former presidential candidate was rumored to be the most likely to be picked as Secretary of State and Massachusetts Democrats were already preparing for a 2009 special election (there is no gubernatorial appointment in the state). But Hillary Clinton’s unexpected emergence thwarted Kerry’s hopes – and those of the hundreds of Massachusetts Democrats who have been waiting for decades for Senate and/or House seats to open up.

• Colin Peterson, MN-07

Rumored to have been on the short list for Secretary of Agriculture alongside Rep. Herseth, Peterson’s appointment would have triggered a difficult special election for Democrats. Now Chairman of the House’s Agriculture Committee, Peterson is entrenched and senior enough that he can keep his seat blue, but MN-07 is a Republican-leaning district that gave George Bush big winning margins and that narrowly went for John McCain this year.

• Jack Reed, Rhode Island

Just like Chet Edwards, Jack Reed made a strong apparition in the summer’s veepstakes, and his name was mentioned as a possible Secretary of State. One reason his prospects might have been thwarted is that Rhode Island’s Governor is a Republican, so a Reed appointment would have resulted in an additional GOP Senator.

• John Salazar, CO-03

Salazar’s name was often mentioned as Secretary of Interior but his brother – Senator Ken Salazar – ended up getting the nod. This is a relief for House Democrats, as CO-03 is a Republican-leaning district that would have been tough to defend in a special election. (That said, we might still have a vacancy in CO-03 since John is on the list of Democrats who could be appointed to Ken’s Senate seat.)

• Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas

The Kansas Governor seemed certain to land in Obama’s Cabinet. She had been on his vice-presidential short list and was considered a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Labor. Her statement withdrawing her name from Cabinet considerations was thus one of the biggest surprises of this transition period. (It is of course unclear whether Sebelius issued the statement because she genuinely wanted to help Kansas through the economic crisis or because she had already been told she was unlikely to get an appointment.)

In any case, her withdrawal preserves the governorship in Democratic hands (the next-in-line is a Republican); it could have a huge impact on the upcoming open Senate race. Democrats have not won a Senate race in this state since 1936, and Sebelius is probably the only Democrat who stands a chance. A Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running and would have guaranteed that the Senate race remain in Republican hands.

Welcome to the first poll watch of the 2009-2010 cycle! Just over two weeks have passed since Election Day 2008, and the partisan breakdown of the 111th Congress still remains to be decided. But it’s never too early to think about upcoming elections, especially when polling institutes give us an excuse to do so.

(However, and while it is nice it is to get numbers for 2009 and 2010 elections, it would be more useful at the moment to see some surveys of Georgia’s runoff. Only Research 2000 has released a poll for now, finding Chambliss leading by 3%.)

First is New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, which will take place next year, in the fall of 2009. Incumbent John Corzine is expected to run for re-election, though is mentioned as a possible Treasury Secretary in an Obama Administration. (If he moves to Washington, the election is of course a whole new ball game.) Corzine is somewhat favored to hold on to his seat, but it would be certainly be no slam dunk. While New Jersey voters typically flirt with Republicans before deserting them in the last stretch, Corzine is unpopular enough that the GOP could mount a credible challenge.

Quinnipiac released a poll today finding that Corzine’s approval rating is a net negative (43-46) and that the incumbent barely leads one of the GOP’s top potential contenders, US Attorney Christopher Christie: 42% to 36%. These are good numbers for a candidate who is still unknown to 70% of New Jersey voters.

Second is New York’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent David Paterson is also expected to seek his first full term (he came in power after Elliot Spitzer was forced to resign last spring). It is hard to see the GOP mount a strong challenge given their dismal state after the 2006 and 2008 elections, but one Republican could make the race interesting: Rudy Giuliani.

Siena came out with a poll testing the match-up yesterday. It found Paterson narrowly leading, 49% to 43%, suggesting that Rudy could at the very least make things competitive. When paired up against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Giuliani takes a 46% to 44% lead. However much Cuomo wants to move to the gubernatorial mansion, however, it looks like challenging Paterson in a primary would be a bad idea: the incumbent crushes him 53% to 25%.

Third is Florida’s Senate race, where Republican incumbent Mel Martinez is considered one of the most endangered Senators of the 2010 cycle and is virtually certain to draw top-tier Democratic challengers. Quinnipiac’s latest poll did not test actual match-ups, but it did confirm that Martinez is highly vulnerable: Only 36% of voters say he deserves another term, while 38% say he does not. When paired up against a generic Democrat, Martinez trails 40% to 36% – a dismal showing for an incumbent two years before the election. (Martinez only gets 28% among independents.)

On the other hand, Republican Governor Charlie Crist is looking very strong: 58% of Floridians say he deserves to be re-elected (against 27%) and he beats a generic Democrat by 22% (and 26% among independents). With a Senate race to jump into, it is doubtful many top Democrats will choose to challenge Crist. With a staggeirng number of competitive-looking gubernatorial races, defeating seat is unlikely to be a Democratic priority.