CIENA Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) has been under pressure for increasing its bid for the Nortel optical networking unit in the Nortel Networks Corp. (NRTLQ) bankruptcy.  But now there is a stalking horse potentially via Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) and Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) in the Nokia Siemens venture.  This could have broad implications for what many feel is already an expensive acquisition for a solid unit from one of the largest corporate disasters in modern times.   This deal and/or deal interruption attempt potentially has consequences for more than just the known companies involved today.

Nokia Siemens Networks is said to be objecting in bankruptcy court to the recent win by Ciena in its $769 million bid for the optical networking and carrier ethernet units from Nortel.  The figure being used is a raised offer of $810 million in cash.

Ciena won this bidding process initially and it is not clear exactly how this will pan out.  A higher bid is in the interest of the bankruptcy courts, but deadlines are supposed to be deadlines.  There is also the precedent that could be set up in after-close shadow bids from larger companies looking to gobble up cheap assets out of bankruptcy court at the expense of bidders that go through a formal bankruptcy process.

The real issue is where this leaves Ciena if the deal is not consummated.  Ciena’s management is taking a huge risk with this buyout.  While it has made acquisitions, it would be doubling its size and has never embarked on something of this size.  It will also be taking a solid balance sheet and leveraging it to the hilt at a time when carrier enterprise spending in the next 24 months is still a wild card for many equipment makers.

Ciena shares are up almost 6% at $13.00 on today’s news as this would keep the company from leveraging its future by such an amount.  Ciena was a $15.00 stock and even $16.00 before it embarked on this acquisition.

Way back when, about 10 years ago, Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) was a merger partner with CIENA.  That deal fell apart before the tech bubble burst.  For whatever it is worth, Tellabs is now worth almost twice as much in market cap as CIENA.

Sometimes it is best for management of a company to look at what the stock market is voting on with buying and selling activity than it is to embark into an unknown and unexplored avenue.

There is one other aspect of this deal though.  Some market pundits have tried to show that JDS Uniphase Corp. (NASDAQ: JDSU) could be an acquisition target in the world of fiber and communications equipment providers.  Depending upon how this Nokia-Siemens or CIENA deal works out, this could create some added attention there.

JON C. OGG
DECEMBER 2, 2009

Reuters:   A $25 billion debt plan for Dubai World helped calm markets.

Reuters:   GE (NASDAQ:GE) and Vivendi agreed to value NBCU at a price which gives the French company $5.8 billion for its 20% share.

Reuters:   The unemployed face higher healthcare premiums.

Reuters:   White House financial adviser Summers said unemployment will stay high.

Reuters:   November sales will shed more light on the holiday season.

Reuters:   The Treasury is pressuring mortgage companies to provide home loan relief.

Reuters:   Car company Geely will get $1.8 billion from Chinese banks to buy Volvo.

Reuters:   Black Friday sales disappointed investors.

Reuters:   The Treasury gave guidance that should speed “short sales” of homes.

WSJ:   As the stimulus money for highway construction drops the industry will layoff workers.

WSJ:   A federal judge is questioning an SEC deal to settle an insider trading of shares in Nova Chemicals.

WSJ:   “Cyber Monday” sales were helped by discounts.

WSJ:   GM directors will decide the fate of Saab at their upcoming meeting.

WSJ:   Nokia (NYSE:NOK) sued Asian LCD makers.

WSJ:   The CBO says the stimulus package sustained 600,000 to 1.6 million jobs in Q3.

WSJ:   DeBeers said shareholders will put $1 billion into the company.

WSJ:   US steel companies are shutting plants.

WSJ:   India’s growth is pressuring its central bank to raise rates.

WSJ:   Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) plans kiosks to compete with Redbox.

WSJ:   Charter Communications came out of bankruptcy.

NYT:   Oil companies are making big investment in Iraq.

NYT:   Experts are trying to predict the next blow-up after Dubai.

NYT:   Sanford C. Bernstein said AIG’s (NYSE:AIG) P&C business has a $11.9 billion shortfall in reserves to pay claims.

NYT:   The Fed is beginning to test the effect of moving out of its securities support effort.

NYT:   Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) bought a manufacturer in South Korea.

FT:   The CBO expects little savings on insurance premiums from the healthcare program.

FT:   US commercial real estate default rates hit 3.4% in the third quarter.

FT:   BP (NYSE:BP) faces a new probe over an Alaska pipeline spill.

FT:   Carlyle was sued by Kuwait over its management of funds.

FT:   US manufacturers said they need relief from environmental laws.

Bloomberg:   China manufacturing rose again last month.

Bloomberg:   GM may sell some assets of Saab to Beijing Auto and close the brand.

Douglas A. McIntyre

So, tell me. What would you do if you had that kind of money ?

would you sail around the world ? change a persons life ? party it all away ? build schools or wells in 3rd world countries ? 

and tell me this, what would you NOT do with that money ?

Would you not hire a hitman to kill your worst enemy ? would you not waste it on booze and fancy parties ? would you not share it with anyone ?

Give me your thoughts on what exactly you would and would not do with 95 mill. NOK (16 mill. USD), and in a few days time I will tell you what the Norwegian government spent that money on. ..!

ja denne dagen gikk fra ille til enda  værre, våkna ikke før halv 8 og har da bare en halvtime før skola starter, Så da jeg kom på skola var det chill en stund men alt gikk til hellvete da vi kom på kjøkkenet, mye stres og ei i klassa maste på meg og kjæfta for å si det sånn. hu gjorde ingenting selv for å si det sånn også stakk hu av med bestevennina mi. :p  Håper morgendagen blir mye bedre

Esküvőre készülődött a család. Az esemény különösen közel hozta őket egymáshoz. A legnagyobb örömben fogadták a következő boldog esemény hírét: a lány terhes. Irány az orvos: ő nem látja a magzatot, de az ultrahang mutat valami foltot, ami gyanús. Kórházi beutaló. A következő vizsgálatot már végig vérezte az aggódó anya. Nincs magzat, de a vérzés a vetélés előjele. Hátha kijött, de a biztonság kedvéért kaparás. Senki nem mond semmit. Senki nem tud semmit. Az orvos továbbsiet, amikor látja, hogy kérdéssel fordulnak hozzá. Idegtépő órák és napok telnek el, a kórterem pedig zsúfolásig telve óriási pocakkal örömmámorban úszó kismamákkal. Csak egy valaki gyászol. Bár az orvosok még mindig nem értik, a vérvizsgálat szerint a baba még ott van. De ez már nem ad reményt. Biztos elnéztek valamit, mondják, ezért újabb kaparás. Egy héten belül másodjára. Folyamatosan vérzik. Gyászol. Az egyik pillanatban azzal ijesztgetik, hogy nem lehet többé anya, a következőben azzal, hogy talán rákos. Fel akarják szabdalni a hasát, mert biztos méhen kívüli, de nem látják az ulrahangon. Csak úgy találomra, előbb-utóbb meglesz. Már túlságosan kimerült és szomorú. Nem akar mást, mint felébredni ebből a rémálomból. Ebbe a képtelen műtétbe is beleegyezne… Második hete fekszik bent. Nem eszik, nem alszik, nyugtatókat szed, mert eleve gyenge az idegrendszere. Még egy vizsgálat, nem várt fordulat.  Az orvosok és nővérek örömtáncot járva sikongatnak, hogy ver a szíve a babának. Megtalálták a méhben. Túl késő. A terhesség teljesen normálisan zajlott volna, ha nem kezdik el félválról gerjeszteni a problémát. Így kaptak egy magzatot, aki túlélt két kaparást, ezernyi tolakodó vizsgálatot és méhösszehúzó gyógyszereket. És egy anyát, akit úgy szétromboltak, fizikailag és érzelmileg, hogy nem tudja vállalni az anyaság feladatát. Az orvosok megjegyezték, hogy a beavatkozások nem számítanak a magzatnak, ha betegen születik, amúgy is beteg lett volna. Hányinger. Az anya meghozta döntését. A baba megerősítette ebben és támogatta. Ma reggel elvetélt.

Nem tudom, hányszor kellett összeszednem a padlóról az elmúlt két hétben a világ legerősebb és energikusabb emberét. Hányszor kellett feldolgozni a rossz híreket, hányszor kezdtünk reménykedni az állítólgos megoldások hallatán. Mert ezt csinálták: mézesmadzag-szakadék mélye-mézesmadzag-szakadék mélye. Már ha csináltak valamit: az idő nagy részében mi magunk, a semmilyen orvosi képzettségünkkel találgattuk, hogy mi a fene történhet.

Mindenki ismeri a magyar egészségügyi ellátást, nem érdemes beszélni róla. De a szülészeten anyák vannak, akik életet adnak, babákat hoznak a világra. Különleges bánásmódot igényelnének, mert félnek, óriási felelősséget vállalnak magukra, de tele vannak kétellyel és bizonytalansággal. Érzelmileg labilisek, ami a babára is kihat. Egy puha meleg szoba járna nekik, rengeteg szeretettel. Mint ahogy annak is, aki nem tudja végigcsinálni a dolgot és elvetél, vagy abortuszra kényszerül. Nem azért veszti el a babáját, mert ezt akarja. Meghozza a legnehezebb döntést a babáért, mert abban a pillanatban neki nem-megszületni a legjobb. Mindegy, hogy ezt a nő teste vagy az agya mondja ki. És ezeknek a nőknek nem megvetés járna és lenézés és bűntetés. Hanem rehabilitáció és gondoskodás, hogy a következő baba egy boldogabb világba születhessen meg.

Jeden Tag was Gutes aufschreiben – Moment mal, da war bestimmt was.

Keine Todesanzeige von jemandem Bekannten in der Zeitung und auch nicht in meinem Alter.

Gelacht über Ina Müller im Fernsehen: Ina, Stadt, Land oder so.

Die Mehrheit meines Körpers ist schmerzfrei. Trotz aufkommenden Sturmes – ich fange an, Wind zu mögen!

An der Fähre über den NOK musste ich nicht warten, nein, ich kam sofort mit. Das Nicht-Wort vermeiden, gell.

Lecker halben Hahn aus dem Römertopf gegessen, Kater hat auch was bekommen.

Früher hatte man frei und freute sich über einen weiteren Feiertag, heute bin ich gottlos. Es ist, wie es ist. Nicht fatalistisch, sondern zufrieden.

Warum muss immer alles einen Grund haben? Einfach mal keine Fragen stellen, nicht zweifeln und leben. Vom Fragen beantworten die keiner gestellt hat, leben Menschen: Forschungsinstitute, Kirche, Statistiker, Neunnmalkluge.

These are some cool stickers on lower Queen Anne. I like all the stickers in the last picture which are done by Lim and Nok and I think the other sticker there says Biskit.

Updated throughout the day.

Updated 10.30 AM EST: PALM (NASDAQ:PALM) shares are up on speculation that Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) or Nokia (NYSE:NOK) will buy the faltering handset firm (VSInvestor)

Former Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) CEO and New Jersey governor Jon Corzine said he has not talked to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) about running the firm. (The Deal)

Some former bank CEOs are considering bidding for failed banks at FDIC auctions.  (WSJ)

Now that it has settled a legal dispute against AMD (NYSE:AMD), Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) biggest challenge is competition from ARM Holdings  (BusinessWeek)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Economists still expect layoffs in the US and Europe to slow as the recovery gains momentum. Pessimists among experts on GDP growth and job losses believe that the major risk of a double-dip recession is that unemployment will keep rising well beyond the middle of next year.

Analysts who track corporate earnings were concerned that improvements in third quarter net income at many American companies would be due more to cost cuts than revenue growth. It turns out that the assumption was correct. Kraft (NYSE:KFT) which recently announced earnings, is a case in point. Its revenue fell in the September quarter, but earnings improved. The US firm will probably go ahead with its attempt to buy Cadbury. There would be a great deal of efficiency in the combination, which means thousands of people will be laid off if Kraft can convince Cadbury shareholders that its offer is irresistible.

Layoffs seem to have picked up in the last week or so, if the business press is a fair indication. Nokia-Siemens, a joint venture which is one of the largest companies in the global telecom equipment business, said it would fire 6,000 people. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), arguably one of the most successful companies in the US, will fire 8,200 people. Ironically, JNJ’s stock trades close to it 52-week high. Johnson & Johnson announced two weeks ago that earnings were up slightly to $3.3 billion. The firm also raised its full-year earnings guidance. The job cuts will make those forecasts even better.

The layoffs at banks are not over. HSBC (NYSE:HBC) said it will fire 1,700 people in the UK. Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE:RBS) and CIT (NYSE:CIT) are expected to announce jobs cuts in the next week. Media companies are still cutting costs and people. Telecom companies continue to cut workers as their landline and wireless divisions struggle. Sprint (NYSE:S) is about to announced another round of cuts.

The Time Inc. unit of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) is scheduled to fire scores of employees. Many analysts who cover the media industry believed that the layoffs from last year and earlier in 2009 would be sufficient to help earnings. Obviously, they are not. Advertisers might have improved the budgets for what they intend to spend online, in print, or over the air because they believe their own prospects will improve next year. There is very little evidence that the case is true.

Random lists of layoffs do not mean a thing. They do, however, show a trend when put next to a list of the major companies which are hiring people. That list is less than an inch long.

It has occurred to corporations in the barely growing parts of the global economy—the US, EU, and Japan–that corporate earnings are not going to be spectacular next year because revenues will not be rising significantly in most industries. Firing people and cutting other costs remains the most reliable path to improved earnings. That undercuts the belief that employment will turn in the right direction by the end of next year.

The day will come, and it may be far off, when the business media’s pages will be filled with news about large corporations which are adding to their staffs. Demand for products and services will be so great that companies cannot keep up with new sales based on the skeleton staffs they created during the recession.

Those headlines are a ways off, perhaps a year. Falling sales and M&A transactions which are based primarily on cost savings, no matter what the companies involved say, will be going on for a long time.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Nokia Siemens, a telecommunications equipment joint venture, plans to lay off up to 5,700 employees, or 7-9 percent of its work force, in order to cut about $740 million in costs. The company, which is a joint venture between Siemens (s si) and cell phone maker Nokia (s nok), will also whittle down to three business units from five. But you wouldn’t really get it after reading the headline on its press release which states, “Nokia Siemens Networks Targets Improved Financial Performance, Return to Growth.”

Look, I get that you probably don’t want to title your press release, “We’re Laying off 5,700 Workers,” but the headline chosen is too divorced from reality for my tastes. Emphasize the positive by all means, but the title amounts to wishful thinking, especially given the incredible difficulties the entire telecommunication equipment market faces. Remember Nortel (s nt)? Like that “Little Engine that Could,” Nokia Siemens may think it can, but this isn’t a children’s story, and it might not have a happy ending.

With intense competition coming from European competitors Alcatel-Lucent (s alu) and Ericsson (s eric) and even more fierce rivalry from the upstart Asian vendors, Huawei, and ZTE, selling telecom equipment is getting more cutthroat. The company is dragging down its backers, with Nokia marking down $1.4 billion of its investment in the joint venture during the most recent quarter, despite efforts a year ago to cut costs. Cutting costs is only going to take Nokia Siemens so far, and it’s not likely to get it over the hill into profitability and growth.

In the United States, people will line up for blocks and camp out in the cold to be the first customers into Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) retail stores when the consumer electronics wonder introduces a new product. The Chinese response to the introduction of the iPhone was muted.

The Wall Street Journal reports that iPhone sales in China may be slow, at least compared to those in the US. Among the reasons are a retail price that can be over $1,000 and the fact that two million iPhones has already been sold through unauthorized dealers.

A poor reception in China could be the first setback of any significance for the iPhone. It has already sold 34 million units worldwide and is widely viewed as Apple’s next flagship product, particularly now that iPod sales have begun to slow. China has about 700 million cellular subscribers. Apple would be successful even if it got a very modest part of the market.

Apple is also up against entrenched handset manufacturers on the mainland and they will not be easy to dislodge. Nokia (NYSE:NOK), the world’s largest cellular phone company, is the market share leader in China, followed by Samsung. Each of the companies is large enough to bring out new handsets for the world’s largest market and each has extensive relationship with the largest carriers–China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) and China Unicom (NYSE:CHU).

For the first time in a long time, Apple may be facing a hard uphill fight to become an important factor in a market it has targeted. China may be the iPhone’s Waterloo and that would set the global aspirations of Apple back considerably.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The global handset business has faltered due to the recession. Research firm Strategic Analytics says that worldwide handset sales fell to 291 million units in Q3 down from 304 million in the same period a year ago. But, the firm expects Q4 to be a period of improving sales compared to last year, and part of that improvement is likely to be driven by strong sales of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone.

The two very large handset companies that are predicted to do better are South Korean manufacturers LG and Samsung. Nokia (NYSE:NOK), Motorola (NYSE:MOT), and Sony Ericsson are expected to do poorly.

Apple’s global share of the handset market hit 3% in Q3 and is likely to grow strongly through the end of the year.

The analysis shows Apple’s ability to continue improving its iPhone sales even while other companies face losses. The iPhone did will even though it was not for sale in China and many other markets where Nokia, Samsung, and LG have long had relationships with carriers.

Apple has 3% of the global market now, but the figure could clearly double as it pens deals with large cellular carriers in the developing world. Nokia, Sony Ericsson, and Motorola have been losing market share for over a year. Apple will contribute to the continuation of  that trend.

Douglas A. McIntyre

These are all stickers by Aurora near Queen Anne. The artist Lim seems to have a lot of stickers in that area but these are my favorite. I like how they are hand-drawn and I like the placement of the eyes.

The market mood has definitely soured and risk appetite has faltered.  This is good for the USD but bad for relatively high yielding/commodity risk trades. The USD is set to retain a firm tone over the near term even if is temporary, which I believe it is.  

Whether it’s profit taking on crowded risk trades, a lot of good news having already been priced in, fears that other countries will follow Brazil’s example of taxing capital inflows to dampen currency strength, or a reaction to weaker economic data, it is clear that there are many reasons to be cautious. 

It is also unlikely to be coincidental that the rise in risk aversion and drop in equity markets is happening at a time when many central banks are contemplating exit strategies and when many investors are pondering the timing of interest rates hikes globally following the moves by Australia and Israel. 

One of the reasons for the worsening in market mood is that some parts of the global economy may not be ready for rate hikes.  Certainly there is little chance of a US rate hike on the horizon and perhaps not until 2011 given the prospects of a sub par economic recovery.  This projection was given support by the surprise drop in US consumer confidence in October.

It is not just the US that is unlikely to see a quick reversal in monetary policy.  As indicated by the bigger than expected decline in annual M3 money supply growth in the eurozone, which hit its lowest level since the series began in 1980, as well as the drop in bank loans to the private sector, the ECB will be in no hurry to wind down its non-standard monetary policy measures. 

The chances of any shift in policy at next week’s ECB meeting are minimal, with the ECB’s cautious stance emboldened by the subdued money supply and credit data.  As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.50 ECB President Trichet is also unlikely to step up his rhetoric on the strength of the EUR.  

Although the major economies of US, Eurozone, Japan and UK are likely to maintain current policies for a long while yet, the stance is not shared elsewhere.  The Reserve Bank of India did not raise interest rates following its meeting this week but edged in this direction by requiring banks to buy more T-bills. Other central banks in the region are set to move in this direction.

In terms of developed economies, Norway was the latest to join the club hiking rates by 25bps and adding to the growing list of countries starting the process of policy normalisation.   Australia is set to hike rates again at next week’s meeting although a 50bps hike looks unlikely, with a 25bps move more likely.