Charlie Rangel in 1970. (Photo: Facebook)

Congressman Charlie Rangel, an octogenerian who is subject to widespread speculation of retirement rumors both before and after his successful reelection bid earlier this year, isn’t ready to start waving the white flag for his 2014 reelection campaign just yet.

“But, as you know, the fight isn’t over,” he wrote in a fundraising email to supporters earlier this afternoon. “And if I’m going to keep it up, I’ll need your continued support. Can you pitch in $5, $10, $25 or more today? Even as little as $3 can make a big difference!”

The email, which mostly focused on thanking recipients for their support during his June 26th primary election, added, “We’ve done some incredible things over the last four decades, but there’s still so much to do.  I hope you’ll keep fighting by my side.”

It should be noted that the email isn’t a strong signal of the incumbent’s intentions, as sending an online fundraising solicitation takes almost no effort and has no downside. Congressman Ed Towns, for example, continued raising money for his reelection campaign throughout most of this year even though he eventually announced his retirement.

In Mr. Rangel’s last race, he narrowly defeated State Senator Adriano Espaillat by about 1,000 votes, a margin that makes the senator a  strong candidate again for the seat in 2014. Assemblyman Keith Wright, a close ally of Mr. Rangel’s, is also thought to be interested in the seat but would only run in Mr. Rangel’s absence. An inevitable plethora of other congressional hopefuls are sure to enter the race as well.

Espaillat giving his concession speech to a crowd of reporters.

“I’m here to acknowledge that we came short two percent, I want to congratulate Congressman Charles B. Rangel for his victory and tell him that I look forward to working with him as we move forward,” State Senator Adriano Espaillat announced at a sunny press conference in Inwood this afternoon.

“Back in 1996 when I first got into politics, I defeated a 16-year incumbent and I ran against the political establishment,” he continued. “I did so again this year, everyone from Nancy Pelosi on down supported the incumbent, so I’m very proud to have run a very strong race.”

The concession marks the end of a contentious and drama-filled sequence of events after Election Day in Congressman Rangel’s reelection bid. Although Mr. Espaillat initially conceded when the Board of Elections reported a massive lead for Mr. Rangel, he later reengaged the race when additional results showed him only 800 or so votes behind.

Additionally, Mr. Espaillat made clear that he was dropping his lawsuit challenging the results, although he noted groups like Latino Justice may be pursuing incidents of voter suppression on their own. At today’s press conference, he said he simply did not have the funds to continue a legal effort that wouldn’t change who the ultimate victor would be.

“My attorneys have advised me that even though there are close to 2,000 invalid affidavit ballots, the math just doesn’t work, that in fact it is virtually impossible for the results to be different,” he explained.

The concession hardly comes as a surprise, as multiple outlets had already reported that it would occur. But Mr. Espaillat did contradict some of those reports by declaring that he had not yet decided if he would seek reelection to the State Senate this year.  During his congressional campaign he repeatedly vowed he was not seeking reelection “at this time,” and Mr. Espaillat claimed to have only started looking at such a move after the campaign was over. The filing deadline is in a few days, so he’ll need to decide his future plans soon, however.

“I have authorized some of the district leaders in the district to begin circulating petitions after the 26th, after Election Day,” he said. “I promise you that in 48 hours, I will have that answer.”

Outside of his level of support, Mr. Espaillat said his election could also serve as a jumping off point to reform the Board of Elections, an agency widely concerned to be an ineffective, patronage-based system. For example, just today, two weeks after Election Day, they found new votes from Mr. Espaillat’s election.

“I failed to mention that today the Board of Elections found another 28 votes that we had not accounted for,” the state senator chimed in as he was taking questions after his speech. “I think that this election should be an example for why there should be a vigorous debate about reforming the electoral process in New York State, primarily the Board of Elections.”

Don Imus with Charlie Rangel today.

Don Imus might not agree with veteran Congressman Charlie Rangel on a whole lot of issues, but he does fully support his reelection bid. While the cowboy-hat-wearing radio host has an apartment in Manhattan, he lives outside of the district, so Mr. Rangel can’t count on his vote. Nevertheless, the transcript of their discussion, which you can view below, details a rather interesting interaction between the two.

“I don’t know why I support you, I don’t agree with you about anything, but I want you to be — if I lived in your district I’d vote for you and I want you to be– I want you to be reelected,” Mr. Imus told Mr. Rangel on Fox Business News this morning. “Why do you suppose that is?”

Mr. Rangel responded by thanking Mr. Imus but expressing general disbelief that people disagree with him as his heart, he said, is always in the right place.

“Well, I appreciate that and I think you don’t have to agree with every member of congress,” he said. “That’s what makes the country so great. Its diversity and nobody wants a political party to dominate everything, so, I appreciate it, you know, I love my country, and I truly believe in everything I do and it surprises me that people differ with me and I normally seek them out in a debate and ask them.”

Mr. Rangel, of course, is in a competitive reelection fight against multiple challengers, notably State Senator Adriano Espaillat and the former political director of the Democratic National Committee, Clyde Williams.

Although the veteran congressman has been doing an aggressive media tour and campaigning heavily, he dismissed his challengers, simply stating that the people in his district “have no clue who the challenger is.”

View the entire transcript, as provided by Mr. Rangel’s House office, below:

All right. 20 minutes till the hour here on the “Imus in the morning” program on the radio all over the world, actually, and on the fox business network, all over the country as well. Please welcome now to the “Imus in the morning” program democratic Congressman Charles Rangel. The real Congressman Charles Rangel. Good morning, Mr. Rangel.

Good morning, good to be back, the real Congressman Charlie Rangel.

Imus: how are you?

I’m okay, how are you this morning.

Imus: I’m good. I don’t know why I support you, I don’t agree with you about anything, but i want you to be — if I lived in your district I’d vote for you and I want you to be– I want you to be reelected. Why do you suppose that is?

Well, i appreciate that and I think you don’t have to agree with every member of congress. That’s what makes the country so great. Its diversity and nobody wants a political party to dominate everything, so, i appreciate it, you know, I love my country, and i truly believe in everything i do and it surprises me that people differ with me and i normally seek them out in a debate and ask them because i have thoroughly convinced myself that a great patient takes care of the working class and that we’d be able to have accumulating wealth and really– not declared and most people don’t challenge me. They differ with me.

Imus: and well, you’re being challenged, speaking of that, in this election for the first time in a long time, right?

No, no, this challenge– [inaudible]

Even in my district, have no clue who the challenger is. And within the democratic party, and in primaries, people have known and supported me. I don’t have the last time i got– having said all of that, one thing that’s different is that the recently a person named draper wrote a book saying immediately after the obama election a series of people put on for this in order to get rid of obama. Number one, treasury secretary was number two and for some reason, i was included with a handful of democratic legislators. A political action committee, and this is all– put me on the hit list and they didn’t care who the opponent would be, but because they want to get me and some other democrats in democratic districts, in other words, nothing to do with getting republicans, so, coming into my congressional district and my opponent says whatever sort and when it’s going directly to voters to support his candidacy and therefore not reported to the federal election, but i feel confident and it’s very unusual for someone in the community to challenge you, but not say anything derogatory about your department. The one complaint they have against me is my length of service, but not quality and experience in district–

Now what’s good, Congressman Rangel? I know a while back you were accused of doing some icky stuff and i can’t remember what the icky stuff was and you don’t need to remind me because as long as i can’t remember what it was, just leave them old dogs lying there somewhere. Let me ask you a couple of questions here. Do you support gay marriage?

I — i support just as much as i do any other marriage. [laughter] well, hello? What happened?

I think he–

He hung up.

Bernie: yeah.

Imus: he did?

We lost the connection.

Imus: you don’t think he hung up on the i-man.

Bernie: going well, yucking it up.

Imus: i like him. He’s such a character and a Congressman.

Bernie: he’s an old school character, a war hero, so, everybody loves him.

Imus: wonder how he is on abortion?

I’m sure he’s pro choice. I mean, of course he is.

Imus: well, would not be, but then, i support gay marriage of course. So, but i was hoping that he’d disagree with me on those two issues because i would still support him. That’s where i was coming from. Just sorry– is there a train in here?

Sound like it just arrived.

Connell: what prompts you to choose that as your text message cue?

Well, I’ll tell you because I used to work on the railroad and I just like that and the train comes by.

The Congressman is back on the phone.

Imus: i thought Congressman Rangel, you hung up on me?

No, i support the right of people to engage in marriages, contracts and love and the whole of that business. And makes a hell of a lot more sense than concentrating on the economy and the problems that we have. And even when it gets to same sex marriage and we find all upset about it and i don’t find they’re as upset about old folks not getting health care, kids not getting education. There’s so many issues, moral issues that we should be involved in and yet, the silence of the churches as we see us trying to balance the budget by cutting back on the so-called entitlement programs, sure, we should get rid of waste, but to ignore people who paid trillions of dollars because of unfair taxes filled with loopholes, just doesn’t make sense and political, democratic, moral issue.

Imus: you’re 100%, not that you– don’t need me to tell, but that, you’re 100% right about that. Has the president obama offered to come out and campaign for you?

Well, i haven’t heard that and certainly as we say in some communities about chicken soup when you have a cold, it can’t hurt, but i don’t think it’s necessary and i would like to believe that president has more to do on the economy and jobs than to worry what’s happening among democrats in one small district.

Imus: do you support him in his reelection.

Support who?

Do you support the president in his effort to get–

Of course, i-man. Quite frankly, i am just surprise at the lack of quality republican candidates and embarrassed after looking at the republican debates and saying to myself. Is that the best we can offer. It’s true a large number of Americans do and should feel disappointed in their government because of their lost dreams, homes, jobs, and kids’ future and where do we go from here? But that is the answer to this solution, then America is in worse shape than i ever believed because that American dream, the engine that made our country great, and that poor folk, and kin had the ability to produce anything and putting people in jail, as we have proven that we can do that more than all the other countries in the world, that should not be our concentration. It should be investing in education and the republicans are talking about eliminating the education department because the guys that wrote the confusion did not exclude that fwr being covered by the state. Well, i truly believe that education, lack of it, is an a threat to our national security. I think it’s important for our survival.

Imus: you’re not helping with mine Congressman Rangel. Here is the voter I am, I’m going to vote for mitt Romney and if I could, I’d vote for you. So you’re not helping me.

The question i would say to you is if you could share with me why you have confidence in mitt Romney? I watched carefully the debate and from a political point of view, if you listen to those people that were vying for the republican nomination, that should be be enough to turn you off. But even if you weren’t listening to that, then you’ve got him cold turkey, then i don’t think we should be be debating what he did as a successful capitalist or successful businessman. No, their job is to make money. He started in doing that. Somehow though that the American government deal with people’s lives not just making money and you know, it’s nothing to indicate that what he has done showed any compassion for those people and when they’re losing a risk.

Imus: this is not helping. This is just not helping me. Well, on that unfortunate note, we’re out of time, but I hope you get reelected Congressman.

Well, thank you so much.

Charlie Rangel (Photo: Facebook)

Congressman Charlie Rangel is trying to use a Super PAC that’s backing his opponent State Senator Adriano Espaillat to his own advantage. The Politicker received a mailer from Mr. Rangel at our Washington Heights bureau in which the congressman encourages people to give him their votes because of the Super PAC’s support for his rival.

“Pinned down on the battlefield in Korea, Charlie Rangel decided to devote himself to public service if God let him survive. And he’s never stopped fighting for us,” the mailer says. “But now right-wing Tea Partiers from Texas are trying to stop him by telling us how to vote–and its time to fight back.”

The “super PAC” from Texas Mr. Rangel refers to in his mailer is the Campaign for Primary Accountability, Houston-based PAC that targets incumbents. In a statement announcing its support for Ms. Espaillat, the CPA described Mr. Rangel as a prime example of the downside of incumbency.

“Charlie Rangel has sadly become the model of how some long-term incumbents become too comfortable with the special interests that infest Washington,” the statement said. “As chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Rangel was responsible for extending the notorious tax break that allowed GE to pay zero taxes on billions of dollars of profits.”

The CPA has supported both Democrats and Republicans who are running against longtime incumbents. Though the PAC’s activities have been bipartisan, it has several prominent conservative donors including ERICPAC, the political action committee run by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and Joe Ricketts, the billionaire who made headlines earlier this month when his own Super PAC considered a plan to target President Barack Obama by painting him as a “metrosexual black Abe Lincoln.”

Clyde Williams (photo: clyde2012.com)

“I’m talking about real jobs that are available today,” Clyde Williams said as we talked over brunch in Harlem this morning (he wanted otmeal but settled for the scrambled egg plate). “Studies show that if all the jobs available were filled, the unemployment rate would be under 7%”

Mr. Williams was explaining his next policy push in his congressional campaign as he works to unseat veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel. He argued that the federal government should be doing much more to retrain workers for targeted industries and that Mr. Rangel, currently in office, has not been delivering.

Previously Mr. Williams worked for President Bill Clinton and the national Democratic party, and he leaned hard on his connections in Washington D.C. to explain why he can accomplish his agenda, even if he can’t get legislation through a Republican-controlled House.

“First thing is you don’t need to pass legislation to get money to actually do the job training. There’s millions of dollars sitting at the Upper Manhattan Empowerment Zone right now, if you get elected, to actually … do these things,” he contended. “The other thing is money sitting at the labor department to do the kind of job training we’re talking about.”

Another prominent candidate in the race is State Senator Adriano Espaillat, but Mr. Williams stressed that he would be able to accomplish things Mr. Espaillat couldn’t.

“So the difference between me and somebody like Espaillat is I’ve actually worked in D.C., I worked in a government agency,” he said. “I know that there’s money to be had to do the things that are necessary. When I go to D.C. from Day One I’ll be able to hit the ground running.”

His economic platform has additional planks, including a big focus on using economic development resources to bring tourism to the Uptown portions of the district.

“Tourism is a huge economic engine in Northern Manhattan,” he explained. “Think about this, they come up here and they stay 3 or 4 hours, 5 max. We need to build hotels in this community where they spend four or five days … so that we can then build all of the other ancillary things that go along with that. Those will create thousands of jobs.”

Mr. Williams lamented that the race so far, as discussed in the media, has been centered on endorsements of elected officials for Mr. Espaillat and Mr. Rangel rather than substantive policy proposals.

“A lot of it is people get caught up in personalities,” he answered when we asked why this has been the case. “At some level, people are more interested at talking about the black/brown dynamic in reference to the race. The thing is I believe in this, Latinos and African-Americans have much more in common than they do different.”

Clyde Williams

Former DNC political director Clyde Williams faced two challenges to the 6,000 petition signatures he obtained to get on the ballot in the congressional race for Upper Manhattan’s 13th district that he blamed on “associates” of the incumbent, Charlie Rangel. Those objections have expired and Mr. Williams said he’s going to be on the ballot without issue.

“Thousands of residents who signed my petitions participated in the electoral process and now their voices will be heard. I will be on the ballot on June 26,” Mr. Williams told The Politicker. “We now enter a new phase of the race and I look forward to continuing to engage voters and share ideas for the future of this community.”

Last week, Mr. Williams posted a note on Facebook decrying the challenges to his petitions filed by Desiree Harris and Jerry Washington as “associates of Charlie Rangel” attempting “to block my access to the ballot.” Ms. Harris and Mr. Washington also filed challenges to petitions obtained by two of the other candidates in the race, Craig Schley and Joyce Johnson.

“Some might say a petition challenge is the sincerest form of flattery. But in fact what my opponents are challenging is the right of the people to be heard – trying to silence the voices of change,” Mr. Williams wrote.

Ms. Harris lives in the same apartment building as Mr. Rangel, whose campaign declined to comment on the issue last week.

Petition objections require a contact person and both Mr. Washington and Mr. Harris listed a man named Arthur Greig on their challenges. Mr. Greig was the Co-Law Chair of the New York County Democratic Party while Mr. Rangel’s longtime ally, Assemblyman Herman “Denny” Farrell was chairman. He also worked a special counsel to the chairman of the Assembly Ways and Means Committee in the late 1998. Mr. Farrell has been chair of that committee since 1994. Mr. Greig also served as counsel to another ally of Mr. Rangel’s, David Paterson while Mr. Paterson was minority leader in the State Senate.

Charles Rangel,

Congressman Charlie Rangel appeared on former Governor David Paterson’s show today to discuss his re-election bid and his health following two months where he was in and out of the hospital.

“I’m charged up, I’m ready to go,” Mr. Rangel said when asked about his health. “I’m pretty excited about how far the president has gone with what he’s got to work with.”

Mr. Rangel went on to explain he finds the Republican presidential candidates “frightening” because they were able to “get as far as they’ve gotten” with “so little talent.”

“I was a little worried about the congressman until he started attacking the Republican candidates for president, then I figured out his health was fine,” joked Mr. Paterson, a longtime friend and ally of the congressman.

Mr. Rangel is being challenged by four rivals; State Senator Adriano Espaillat, former DNC head Clyde Williams, businesswoman Joyce Johnson and his ex-intern Craig Schley. The congressman is thought to be particularly vulnerable after more than four decades in power because the demographics in Harlem are shifting to become more Latino. Mr. Rangel told Mr. Paterson he didn’t notice the changes as they were occurring, but the new shape of the neighborhood became clear to him over time.

“You can’t feel a district that’s changing around you, especially when you were born and raised in it,” Mr. Rangel said. “Like anything else, the changes are so small when they occur, but after ten years, you can dramatically see the changes.”

Many politicians, including Mr. Rangel’s challenger, Mr. Espaillat, hoped this year’s redistricting process would result in Upper Manhattan being cut to create a predominantly Latino district in Washington Heights while preserving the historically African American district in Harlem. Mr. Rangel, who has previously said he ran for re-election in 2010 because he felt he could influence the redistricting process said he fought for changes “that would not dramatically alter the boundaries of Harlem. He told Mr. Paterson he was “hurt” and “disappointed” by the end result of this year’s round of redistricting.

“It’s a very emotional thing to see history being made, unfolded in front of you in a way that you would not want it to happen,” Mr. Rangel said.

Mr. Rangel’s re-election bid was the subject of a front page story in today’s New York Times. The story included a rather interesting quote from Adam Clayton Powell IV, who has a long history with the congressman. Mr. Rangel made it to the House after defeating Mr. Powell’s father, Adam Clayton Powell Jr. in 1970. The younger Mr. Powell went on to serve as Mr. Rangel’s intern and to challenge the congressman for his seat in 2010. In the Times story, Mr. Powell had a rather colorful description of that race.

“I got my spanking two years ago; Espaillat will get his spanking now,” Mr. Powell said.

Mr. Paterson asked Mr. Rangel about Mr. Powell’s remark. Mr. Rangel declined to comment directly.

“I’m glad that he’s not running this time,” the congressman said.

In December, Mr. Powell told The Politicker he didn’t want to challenge Mr. Rangel, but he left the door open for a future run in the district.

Gustavo Rivera (Photo: NYS Senate)

Bronx State Senator Gustavo Rivera gave his endorsement to fellow State Senator Adriano Espaillat in his race against veteran congressman Charlie Rangel. The endorsement is significant because Mr. Rivera’s home base in the Bronx is new territory for Mr. Espaillat, who currently represents Upper Manhattan and Riverdale.

“As a fellow senator, I have watched Adriano successfully fight for working families and immigrants,” Mr. Rivera said in a statement. “I am proud to endorse Adriano for Congress because he will bring the same passion and energy to Congress and deliver the change we need in Washington D.C. I look forward to campaigning for Adriano, particularly in the Bronx, to get him elected as our next Congressman.”

Mr. Rivera’s endorsement is also significant because he is Puerto Rican while Mr. Espaillat is of Dominican descent. In a recent interview on the Perez Notes, Mr. Rangel’s campaign manager, Moises Perez, claimed Puerto Rican leaders were unanimously backing his candidate.

For his part, Mr. Espaillat said he was “proud” to have the support of Mr. Rivera, who he called “one of our brightest young leaders in New York.”

“Together, we have fought in the State Legislature for jobs, housing, education, and immigrants. We can continue to make progress by bringing new, bold ideas to Congress and the change Manhattan and Bronx voters are looking for,” Mr. Espaillat said.

Ruben Dario Vargas (Photo: New York City Campaign Finance Board)

Mr. Espaillat is vying to be the first member of Congress of Dominican descent. Without Mr. Vargas, he is the only Latino candidate running in the 13th district, which contains a largely Dominican Latino majority. Mr. Vargas said he chose to drop out because he believes it is more important for the Dominican community to unite and “make history.

“This election is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for our community,” Mr. Vargas said. “With the stakes so high, I think it’s important for the community to unite behind a candidate who can make help us make history, and that candidate is Senator Espaillat. While I’ve worked hard to get myself in a position to run, I’m ready to give all of my support to the candidate who can succeed in bringing fresh leadership to Congress this year.”

Mr. Vargas’ departure from the race leaves five candidates standing; Mr. Espaillat, Mr. Rangel, former DNC head Clyde Williams, businesswoman Joyce Johnson and former model Craig Schley.

Ruben Dario Vargas (Photo: New York City Campaign Finance Board)

Ruben Dario Vargas, a self-described “Northern Manhattan community activist” who has run multiple unsuccessful campaigns for public office, is throwing his hat into the crowded campaign for the 13th congressional district, where Charlie Rangel is running for re-election. Based on his past performance running for the seat, Mr. Vargas is unlikely to be a major threat in the race, but his entry will strip State Senator Adriano Espaillat of his status as the only Latino candidate in a district with a majority Latino population. 

In addition to Mr. Rangel and Mr. Espaillat, former DNC head Clyde Williams, businesswoman Joyce Johnson and former model Craig Schley are running for the Democratic nomination in the 13th district. Mr. Vargas plans to officially announce his campaign tomorrow at noon at Caridad Restaurant on Broadway and 145th Street. He unsuccessfully challenged Mr. Rangel for his seat in 2010 and has also run for Manhattan Borough President and the Council seat currently occupied by Ydanis Rodriguez. According to a profile from his 2009 Council run, Mr. Vargas is an Air Force veteran who has worked with the NYPD as an evidence and property specialist and  has been involved with the International Chess Federation.

Mr. Vargas’ press release about his announcement said he has received 1,600 signatures so far to get his name on the ballot for the upcoming Democratic primary. It also said he “secured 18% of the vote” the last time he ran against Mr. Rangel. Mr. Vargas actually received about five percent of the vote in the 2010 Democratic Primary.  Mr. Rangel won that race with 51 percent of the vote.

Keith Wright standing behind Charles Rangel at yesterday's presser along with Councilwoman Inez Dickens and Assembly members Guillermo Linares and Robert Rodriguez. (Photo: Hunter Walker)

As Congressman Charles Rangel made his first public appearance after being sidelined by health problems for more than two months, his longtime ally Assemblyman Keith Wright stood in the background. As Mr. Rangel prepares to face a serious threat to his more than forty year congressional career in the form of four primary challengers, rumors have run rampant Mr. Rangel is merely campaigning for election in order to anoint a chosen heir, namely, Mr. Wright. Both Mr. Wright and Mr. Rangel dismissed this rumor at the congressman’s press conference yesterday.

When we asked him about the idea he wants to pass his seat to Mr. Wright, Mr. Rangel laughed and questioned whether the scenario is even possible.

“You know, I’ve heard a lot about that too. Do you have a formula that you pass along and you say, ‘This is your seat?’”

Mr. Rangel said there’s no question he plans to serve a full term. Despite his “love” for Mr. Wright, Mr. Rangel said the assemblyman will have to be elected if he wants to follow his footsteps in Congress.

“Let me make it clear, there are a lot of people that figure I’ve been around so long that they have to create questions, when they really know the answers to most of them. The fact is, that if I went to my constituents and asked for two more years, it means that they trust me enough to serve for two years,” Mr. Rangel said. “There’s no one that I love dearer more than Keith. He’s worked hard, but elections are elections.”

Mr. Rangel added he was offended anyone would suggest he has a plan to choose an heir.

“I wish people would not infer that I’m crooked and I plan to develop some plan where, you vote for me and you’re going to get Keith in the morning,” Mr. Rangel said. “I mean that’s not right.”

After the press conference concluded, Mr. Wright approached The Politicker.

“Thanks for bringing my name up like that,” he said referring to our question in the press conference.

We asked whether he was being saracastic or was genuinely glad ot have been mentioned. Mr. Wright replied with a stern glare and had little to say when we asked if he had any additional comment on the rumors.

“There’s no deal,” Mr. Wright said before walking away.

“I’m running for Congress again in 2012 because I continue to believe what I did then: that a brighter future is possible for all of us when we work together and have strong, efficient leaders in place to support us,” Johnson wrote.

“We need leaders that understand the value of creating jobs that offer equal pay for equal work; of investing in our youth by building better schools, hiring quality teachers, and fostering cleaner, safer environments for them to learn and play; and of bridging the social and economic divide that continues to burden hardworking individuals and families across America, and in my own neighborhood.”

“This is a future that every American deserves. But it cannot be accomplished with legislators heavily invested in maintaining the status quo of ‘politics as usual.’ The only way forward is with pragmatic yet innovative leaders who are connected to the people they’ve been hired to serve, and who can envision our community’s future as it ought to be – full of promise and opportunity.”

“That is the future I see and will fight hard to achieve as Congresswoman of New York’s 13th District.”

Ms. Johnson, an African American business executive,  joins state Senator Adriano Espaillat and former Obama aide, Clyde Williams as announced candidates in NY-13.

Continue reading Joyce Johnson Makes 2nd Attempt Against Rangel.

Murphy is an aide to Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and is looking to run against freshman Rep. Michael Grimm. So far, Grimm has more than $400,000 on hand in his campaign account, making him a formidable target to unseat.

Grimm is a former FBI agent and military veteran who ran an insurgent campaign, relying on a mix of support from Tea Party activists and high-profile endorsements from Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin. After a contentious primary, Grimm went on to knock off freshman Rep. Mike McMahon in 2010.

Since taking office, Grimm’s record working undercover in the FBI has come under scrutiny — particularly after the New Yorker detailed an altercation Grimm had where he reportedly pulled out his gun during a dispute near a night club years ago. Politically, Grimm has had some choice words for some of his hard-line Tea Party supporters, fracturing the alliance that propelled him to victory not long ago.

Murphy is the Staten Island representative for the Public Advocate. Before that, Murphy worked in the real estate industry in California. He now lives on Staten Island, and comes from a family that has resided there for generations.

The NY-13 district includes all of Staten Island and a portion of southern Brooklyn. It’s unclear how much of Brooklyn — or perhaps Manhattan — will be drawn into the district after it is redrawn to reflect updated information from the latest census. New York is expected to lose 2 congressional seats, including, according to many observers, the nearby NY-9 seat formerly held by Anthony Weiner — which covers Brooklyn and Queens.

NY-14: Carolyn Maloney wants to ban census lookalikes–why? Well it was prompted by a GOP “census” mailer. Fine, admittedly, the GOP mailer appears to be some serious nonsense:

The mailing is a Republican Party standby, a source of contributions — and occasional complaints — for more than a decade. But the latest round comes in a year when the actual United States census is getting under way, and officials say they’re worried that the GOP will sow confusion. News outlets in Wyoming, New York, Tennessee, and Minnesota have printed complaints about the mailers, with the director of the Census Bureau’s regional office in Kansas City, Dennis Johnson, criticizing the letter in the Pioneer Press.

More than a decade? Alright, Maloney, it looks like you are looking for a distraction just as much as the Republicans are so that you can avoid fixing the healthcare system in this country.

NY-13: Mike McMahon may have just made the point for the progressives. Here, read this:

Rep. Mike McMahon (D-NY), who is one of the House Democrats joining the charge to extend all of the Bush cuts, had this to say:

“I think it is a political liability because it’s a [bad] policy right now for the economy and could have a bad impact on jobs,” said McMahon…“A working couple making $250,000 is barely making ends meet,” he said, adding, “If you have a partnership or an S. Corporation you are definitely affected… As professionals or shop owners or restaurant owners, you get hammered.”

Really? The median household income in the US is $50,750. If this is even true, if those making $250,000 are really struggling, then maybe it’s time for a more progressive tax then. The liberals will concede, we’ll need to cut their taxes as well. We’ll just have those who make over $350,000 pay more in their taxes.

Who’s pumped? I am! Now let’s see what’s going on around the state.

NY-SenA: Schumer is for the first time down in the polls. Below 50%! I don’t know if it’s the anti-incumbent fever or if it’s more “you’re a Senator, so you must suck.” Kind of unfair on the part of the constituents, but I completely understand it.

NY-25: The field widens to four then shrinks to three in the race to challenge Congressman Maffei. I don’t think freshman Maffei has anything to worry about–unlike other freshman congressmen. He has quite a bit of money on hand while his opponents are broke (though one, Mark Bitz, is prepared to self-fund).

NY-13: Republicans hate special interests so much that one of their candidates, former Marine Michael Grimm, has raised $311,000–99% of which didn’t even come from the district he is running in. Not to mention, that number barely scares Congressman McMahon, who has quite the coffers.

NY-14: A former Clintonite is challenging Congresswoman Maloney. I personally wouldn’t have a problem seeing Maloney go, so I will keep watching this race intently.

From DailyKos:

1998: Rep. Vito Fossella, new in Congress, votes to impeach President Clinton.

May 1, 2008: Vito Fossella is kicked out of Washington, DC’s Logan Tavern for excessive drunkenness, following a party at the White House in honor of the Super Bowl champion New York Giants

Shortly after, he is arrested for driving while intoxicated in Alexandria, Virginia. When asked about his destination, Fossella informs police that he is “going to visit his sick daughter”. This is especially noteworthy because his family lives in New York City.

   Mr. Fossella was asked to recite the alphabet between the letters D and T. “The subject immediately started and said ‘A, B,’ ” the officer wrote in his report.

   After the officer explained the test again, Mr. Fossella started: “D, E, F, H, G, H, I, J, L,” and then was able to finish.

   Mr. Fossella swayed when he stood on one leg and stumbled when asked to walk nine steps heel to toe and turn, the report said.

Sharp-eyed commenter ericy points out this hilarious episode as well:

Fossella also contested the testimony of Alexandria police officers, including the more lurid charge that he threatened to defecate on the station floor if he was not allowed to use the bathroom.

Fossella is bailed out of jail by Air Force Lt. Col. Laura Fay.

May 2, 2008: Fossella holds a press conference in which he revises his story, changing the word “daughter” to “friend”. Sheesh, what could he have been thinking? “Daughter!” Ha!

May 5, 2008: Speculation begins swirling about the relationship of this mystery woman, Laura Fay, to the Congressman. Folks start asking questions about why exactly Fossella though he had a daughter in Northern Virginia. Notably, Fay refuses to tell who her child’s father is.

May 7, 2008: Laura Fay calls multiple friends and relatives in an effort to prevent them from revealing details about her baby’s paternity.

May 8, 2008: Fossella admits in a press conference that he is the father of Fay’s 3-year-old daughter.

Democrats start looking for strong Staten Island-based candidates to succeed the doomed congressman.

May 10, 2008: Despite entreaties from the Republican Party to step down, Fossella declines to step down as a candidate.

May 19, 2008: Vito Fossella steps down as a candidate, choosing to spend more time with one of his families.

The Post reports that Fossella also carried on an extramarital affair during law school, in which he lied about being married.

May 21, 2008: First-choice Republican Dan Donovan decides not to run.

May 23, 2008: Second-choice Republican Andrew Lanza decides not to run.

May 24, 2008: Third-choice Republican Stephen Fiala decides not to run.

May 27, 2008: Democratic City Councilman Mike McMahon officially gets in.

June 15, 2008: Following the untimely passing of GOP nominee Frank Powers – a genuinely tragic moment in this saga – the Staten Island GOP nominates this guy:

“If Straniere is the nominee, there will be prominent people who will be front and center opposing him,” said Guy V. Molinari, the former Staten Island borough president who spent years building the Republican Party on Staten Island. “This man was a candidate for various offices for 20 years, and he brought nothing but grief to the Republican Party,” he said. “We threw him out of office and got him off of Staten Island. And we don’t want him back.”

Say hello to Bob Straniere.

November 4, 2008: Even as John McCain wins NY-13, Democratic City Councilman Michael McMahon wins election to the United States House of Representatives, winning 61% of the vote to 33% for Republican Bob Straniere. This is the most lopsided margin of any seat switching hands.

December 8, 2008: Fossella is sentenced to five days in jail.

So I guess, all in all, I want to thank you, Rep. Fossella.  Not for your years of “exemplary service”, but for making Staten Island hospitable to a Democratic Representative.

I naively assumed that none of those requirements could be met, but that just goes to show that I have yet to understand that anything can happen in NY-13. First, the Conservative Party’s nominee was offered a judgeship nomination, accepted but he was replaced without Fossella giving any public signs that he was looking for the Conservative Party’s slot on the ballot. The reason to that soon became apparent as Manhattan’s Republican Party unexpectedly decided to offer Straniere a judicial nomination!

While there is no confirmation of this and Fossella has not admitted that he was looking to run for re-election, many Republicans were clearly hoping that this would be a way to get him on the ballot. But Straniere, who has a dismal relationship with much of the district’s GOP establishment, fired back that he has no interest in judgeship, had not even been informed that such a nomination was coming and he formally rejected it yesterday.

Six weeks from Election Day, the field thus appears set, and it’s improbable Fossella can now find a way to enter the race. And as the GOP candidate lacks the support of many in his own party, NY-13 remains this year’s most likely Democratic pick-up.

Meanwhile, the DCCC continues its aggressive expenditures. After investing in 15 districts on Tuesady, the DCCC poured in $1.6 million more yesterday – all of this while the NRCC is still unable to budget any ads in any House districts anywhere in the country. Just like yesterday, let’s break down the DCCC’s latest spending (the full list is available here):

• Defense: The DCCC is investing for the first time in a pair of very vulnerable districts, LA-06 and WI-08. Also, the DCCC puts in more money behind ads in PA-10 (this round of expenditure is an impressive $130,000) and NH-01 (where the DCCC’s new total is a high $600,000).

• Open seats Dems were hoping to have already secured by now: The DCCC continues to pour in huge amounts of money in districts that six months ago looked like fairly easy pick-ups but that have since considerably tightened. Those include NJ-07, NM-01, OH-15 and OH-16; the DCCC just invested between $100,000 and $150,000 in all four, bringing its total in each to more than half-a-million in each (except NM-01, where it’s getting close). Now, the DCCC has also taken its first and smaller buy in NJ-03 – a district that was also once leaning Democratic but where the DCCC is clearly no longer feeling confident.

• Seats that are (and were expected to be) toss-ups: One of the day’s biggest buy is the DCCC’s first buy (of nearly $150,000) in NV-03, where Rep. Porter is highly vulnerable. The DCCC also adds to prior spending in IL-10, NY-26, NC-08 and OH-01 (the two latter in the six figures). It is particularly interesting to see the DCCC willing to spend nearly half-a-million at this point against Rep. Hayes in North Carolina, as the committee was criticized for not moving in at all in 2006, when Hayes’ challenger fell by about 300 votes.

• Districts Democrats were not expected to contest: After KY-02 and MD-01 yesterday, the DCCC makes its first move in NM-02, a conservative open seat few people would have predicted would be competitive a year ago. The DCCC also continues to invest in PA-03 (nearly $100,000), confirming that Rep. English has become one of the Democrats’ top targets.

It is interesting to see the DCCC’s investment decisions as they tell us where the House battle is being waged. It is one thing for party strategists to spin candidate X’s potential and incumbent Y’s vulnerability, but putting money behind those claims goes much beyond spin and demonstrates a sincere belief that those seats are real opportunities or are truly threatened. That is why it is so fascinating to see that the DCCC is willing to move in places like NM-02, KY-02 and MD-01 and to get confirmation that it has not at all closed the deal in the four Ohio and New Jersey open seats – districts that seemed all but lost for Republicans in the spring.

Meanwhile, what strategies Democrats employ in their ads is also an interesting measure of what themes will dominate the final stretch – and what we have seen over the past few days is the DCCC and DSCC seizing on the financial crisis to resurrect the Social Security theme. We had not heard about this much all year, but Wall Street’s instability allows Democrats to pounce on Republican candidate for their past support for Bush’s privatization plan. (This also goes to show that economic concerns dominating the news at this crucial time isn’t just a boost to Obama’s chances but also to Democratic prospects down-the-ballot.) For instance, the DCCC’s LA-06 ad uses this theme to discredit Bill Cassidy:

And the DSCC is up with two new attack ads against Gordon Smith on this subject. Here is the first, and here is the second:

Here’s where things stand: After weeks of a chaotic saga in which all of the GOP’s possible contenders (down to the fourth-tier) declined to run, the Republican nomination went to former Assemblyman Robert Staniere, a figure so loathed by many in the local GOP establishment that only one Republican official is backing his party’s nominee. Democratic candidate McMahon’s task is made easier by the fat that the Conservative Party (a force in New York politics) has fielded its own candidate, attorney Paul Atanasio.

In brief, NY-13 is the most vulnerable of the GOP’s House seats, and is rated likely takeover in my latest ratings. After these cataclysmic few months, it can’t possibly get worse for Staten Island’s GOP, and some might be wondering whether the party might have been in better shape sticking with its adulterous DUI-ing incumbent. That has apparently given Fossella some ideas, and a poll is now reportedly running in Staten Island testing Fossella’s name.

Since the primary has passed, Fossella would have to convince one of the candidates currently on the ballot to step down – and they can only do that by dying, moving out of the state or being nominated to run for judgeship. If the local GOP is determined enough to get Fossella in, it could perhaps pull some strings and get Atanasio a shot at a judgeship (would they do the same for Staniere), though that remains rather unlikely – not to mention that it would be difficult for Fossella to run and win on a third-party line.

While this might end up having only a minimal impact on the battle for the House – it’s difficult to see how even a Fossella comeback could save NY-13 for the GOP – it certainly increases the race’s entertainment value.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is stepping up its independent expenditures at an aggressive rhythm, and in a stark contrast to the NRCC which remains in a very difficult position financially. Swing State Project tracks the committee’s expenditures, and its latest weekly summary shows how the spending so far (and it’s already mid-September) has been disproportionately Democratic. On the one hand, the NRCC has only invested a few thousand dollars in five districts – three of which (ID-01, PA-03 and AL-02) are seats that the GOP should never have to defend in the first place. All of the NRCC’s latest expenditures are polling related.

The DCCC, meanwhile, is up on air in a large number of districts – and a lot of these expenditures are fairly significant. That is particularly the case in some of the Democratic-held vulnerable seats where the GOP cannot really afford to play for now (most of the available money is likely to go on defense) but where the DCCC is rushing to the rescue of its endangered incumbent. $575,032 have already been spent in PA-11, and nearly $400,000 in TX-22. Other vulnerable Democratic seats the DCCC is paying attention to include AL-05 and CA-11 (where the National Association of Realtors PAC has just spent half-a-million dollar on a media buy on behalf of Rep. McNerney).

As for offense, for now the DCCC is spending a lot of money in the districts in which it is best positioned, GOP-held districts in which most analysts are already giving the Democrats’ a slight advantage. The DCCC has already spent $169,758 in AZ-01, more than $100,000 in AK-AL and VA-11. In NJ-07, an expensive district which is looking more competitive than Democrats were hoping it would be, the DCCC has already spent more than $273,000, a lot of it on advertisement! The same is true in OH-15 and OH-16, two open seats that were once considered to be leaning Democratic but where the GOP remains competitive; the DCCC has now spent more than $250,000 in both districts. In NM-01, the DCCC is reaching the $150,000 mark. One very interesting district is NC-08, a district the DCCC neglected in 2006 (the Democrat lost by a bit more than 300 votes) but where they just dumped more than $119,000 and are airing this ad. The DCCC is also firing its first salvoes in MN-03, in the form of a direct mailer.

But it is in IL-11 that the DCCC appears to be going all-out, as it has now almost spent $500,000 to help paint the district blue. Like some of the districts listed above, this is somewhat of a disappointment, as IL-11 was once rated likely takeover in my ratings before slipping back to a more competitive lean takeover as the GOP found a decent candidate, self-funder Marty Ozinga. He has proved surprisingly competitive in the months since, and the DCCC looks determined to lock this seat. Their latest ad is worth a look since it combines a charge Democrats are making against Republicans across the country (proximity to Bush) with an accusation that is being used by Republicans against Al Franken up in Minnesota (failure to pay taxes). And keep in mind, the DCCC is spending a lot of money attacking Ozinga:

The NRCC has yet to spend anything on any of these districts – whether NM-01, AZ-01, IL-11, PA-11 or the other districts I mentioned. That is fine in some places (Ozinga can use his own money in IL-11), but not in others (it will be difficult for NJ-07′s Leonard Lance to respond by himself in the expensive New York City market). At the House level, where voters pay less attention and the press has less coverage, such financial discrepancies can make a big difference.

I already provided some background about how this could impact the race yesterday so I will not go into more analysis here, except to say that the November contest is now sure to be a three-way battle, with two Democrats and a Republican whose name will not be Woody Jenkins. That could be enough for Bill Cassidy to win the seat back for the GOP.

Democrats can take comfort in the latest developments in NY-13, where the situation remains chaotic. Yesterday was the filing deadline and Republicans still had not come up with a candidate to endorse. Their solution was to file a petition on behalf of… Frank Powers, their previous candidate who died last month! Why would they do this? Every filing petition includes a 5-person committee that can appoint a replacement if the candidate drops out or die, and the Staten Island GOP is hoping to gain some more time to find someone, anyone willing to run in NY-13. But here’s the catch: Since Powers died before the petition was filed, it is unclear whether the replacement law will apply in this case and whether Staten Island Republicans will be able to place another candidate on the ballot.

4 other candidates filed for the GOP primary, making it increasingly likely that one of them will get the nod. The most likely candidate is thus Paul Atanasio, a member of the Conservative Party who is being pushed by Brooklyn Republicans (though many of their Staten Island counterparts want nothing to do with him). It will take Democrats to mess up just as badly for Republicans to have a chance at keeping this seat. NY-13 is as close to being a sure pick-up as it can be.

Finally, the DCCC continues to flex its financial muscle. On June 30th, we got word that the committee had reserved air time for the fall in three races with expensive media markets: NY-13, OR-05 and CO-04. By reserving time early the DCCC can get a discounted rate and the money can be refunded if the DCCC chooses to not run these advertisements after all because the races no longer look competitive in a few months. Now, the DCCC has striked again. Including the ad buys mentioned above, it has now reserved air time for 31 districts for up to $35 million! 19 of them are held by Republicans.

Courtesy of Politico, here is the full list (Dem-held seats are in italics). Remember that the amount of money is as much a reflection of a seat mattering more than of how expensive a market is:

• AK AL – Young — $586K
• AZ 01 – Renzi (OPEN) — $1.7M
• AZ 05 – Mitchell — $1.7M
• CO 04 – Musgrave — $667K
• CT 04 — Shays — $697K
• FL 16 – Mahoney — $1.5M
• FL 24 — Feeney — $1M
• IN 09 – Hill — $1.6M
• KS 02 – Boyda — $1.2M
• KY 03 – Yarmuth — $659K
• LA 06 – Cazayoux — $723K
• MI 07 – Walberg — $1.5M
• MI 09 – Knollenberg — $1.1M
• MN 03 – Ramstad (OPEN) — $1.4M
• MO 09 – Hulshof (OPEN) — $941K
• NC 08 – Hayes — $1.6M
• NH 01 – Shea-Porter — $564K
• NJ 07 – Ferguson — $1.8M
• NM 01 – Wilson (OPEN) — $1.3M
• NM 02 – Pearce (OPEN) — $1.2M
• NV 03 – Porter — $916K
• NY 13 – Fossella (OPEN) — $1.3M
• OH 01 – Chabot — $928K
• OH 15 – Pryce (OPEN) — $1.2M
• OH 16 – Regula (OPEN) — $1.3M
  
• OR 05 – Hooley (OPEN) — $1.2M
  
• PA 04 – Altmire — $554K
  
• TX 22 – Lampson — $1.1M
  
• TX 23 – Rodriguez — $707K
• VA 11 – Davis (OPEN) — $1.3M
  
• WI 08 – Kagen — $475K

That the DCCC is able to budget such amounts of money is obviously a terrific display of force and a demonstration of their ability to play defense while also going after some long shot Republican seats. The inclusion in this initial wave of seats of open but conservative districts like MO-09 and NM-02 as well as non-open races that are still considered second-tier (FL-24, MI-07 and MI-09) says a lot about their determination to expand the map. While all of these seats have been talked about for a few weeks now, races in marginal districts typically only become competitive in the fall. And consider that the DCCC demonstrating that it will be active in these districts will allow Democratic candidates to fundraise more effectively.

Meanwhile, the GOP’s road is getting tougher in AZ-08, where freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is running for re-election against Republican state Senator Tim Bee. The GOP incumbent who retired in 2006, Jim Kolbe, grabbed quite a few headlines last weeks when he withdrew his support from his party’s current candidate. While Kolbe provided no explanation for his move, it is probably due to Bee’s casting the last and decisive vote in favor of placing an anti-gay marriage amendment on the November ballot. Kolbe, who was one of the only openly gay congressmen, was sure to have been disappointed by Bee’s prominent role in that vote.

If he does not return to the Republican fold, Kolbe’s absence will be noticed and commented on at length in the coming months. It will hamper Bee’s efforts to reclaim the seat. Kolbe’s moderate profile allowed him to remain popular in this somewhat swing district and his refusal to stand by Bee will help Giffords’s efforts to paint the Republican as too conservative for the region. (As a side to the story, not that Arizona remains the only state to ever have voted down an anti-gay marriage amendment, back in 2006).

In NY-13, finally, it looks increasingly certain that Mike McMahon will pick-up the seat come November, completing a Democratic take-over of all of New York City’s seats. Staten Island Republicans have still not settled on a candidate and seem unable to do so after quite literally all their choices declined to run one after the other. Former GOP Rep. Guy Molinari admits to TPM that it looks likely that McMahon will emerge the victor and confirms that current discussions are focused on whether businessman Paul Atanasio (who is registered conservative, not Republican!) would be an acceptable choice. In fact, it looks like there is a serious split between the Brooklyn GOP and the Staten Island GOP — and Republicans only have a few days left to collect signatures to have a candidate placed on the ballot!

To finish this House round-up with some exciting (and rare, since House contests are not often polled) polling data , Bendixen & Associates released the results of three House races in South Florida:

• In FL-18, GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is comfortably ahead of Annette Taddeo, 51% to 38%.
  
• In FL-21, GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart narrowly leads Raul Martinez 41% to 37%.
• In FL-25, GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart narrowly leads Joe Garcia 44% to 39%.

The Diaz-Balart brothers have been targeted by Democrats for a few months now: Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia are two very strong candidates that could give the GOP incumbents the most difficult re-election campaign of their careers. Yet, it remains unexpected to see both of them struggling this much, as both is under 50% — a vulnerability point for any incumbent. Ros-Lehtinen appears much more protected than her two South Florida colleagues, even though Taddeo’s name recognition is certainly inferior to Martinez and Garcia’s.

• $2.1 million in the NYC market (which covers NY-13)
• $1.2 million in the Portland market (which covers OR-05)
• $600K in the Denver market (which covers CO-4)

These markets are expensive (particularly the NYC one), and by reserving time early the DCCC can get a discounted rate. The RNCC cannot follow the DCCC here, since they only have about $6 million in the bank right now and cannot afford to just spend it away right now. But, you might ask, why would the DCCC spend any money on NY-13 when the race looks like a sure-winner for Democrats already and even in OR-05, where the abortion scandal hitting the GOP nominee makes it a difficult win for Republicans? This money can be refunded if the DCCC chooses to not run these advertisements after all because the races no longer look competitive in a few months.

Even if the networks might impose a small penalty, the DCCC will have shown its determination to winning these three seats in the process, perhaps scaring away potential opponents in Staten Island (where Republicans still have found no challenger at all willing to defend the last GOP-held seat in New York City). It will also show that no seat is beyond targeting for Democrats this year, no matter how expensive an advertising campaign might be.

More troubling news for Republicans in Washington state, where new election rules allow candidates to choose what party label will appear next to their name. TPM reports that two major candidates are shying away from the “Republican” label and choosing to associate with more unconventional appellations. Dino Rossi, running for governor, will write “GOP party” next to his name, while Curt Fackler, a county chairman for Republicans, will run for insurance commissioner with no party label! This will surely hurt other Republicans on the ballot — including John McCain, who already has to battle in neighboring Oregon with the state’s Senator Gordon Smith touting his bipartisan proximity to Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, in Kansas’s Senate race, Senator Pat Roberts shows that he is taking no chances. Barely on the radar screen until a few weeks ago, this contest became potentially interesting when a few polls in recent weeks have shown Roberts holding a smaller lead than expected against former Rep. Slaterry. But Roberts is now airing his third ad, touting his suport for the airline industry.

Finally, in OH-02, a new internal poll for Victoria Wulsin suggests a competitive race with a sure edge for Rep. Schmidt:

• Jean Schmidt leads Wulsin 41% to 33%. Confirming Schmidt’s well-known unpopularity is her approval rating, which is a dismal 33%.

While it’s good for a challenger to hold an incumbent under 50%, two factors should tamper Democratic enthusiasm here: (1) this is an internal poll and (2) Wulsin is already known as this is a rematch of the 2006 battle, which Schmidt won 51% to 49%. She has gotten more entrenched over the past 1.5 years, making her more difficult to beat.

But over the past 24 hours, the two potential second-tier candidates have also ruled themselves out! The first is former Assemblyman Matthew Mirones, who declared “I’ve decided on a personal level not to get back into the political arena at this time.” Some Republicans were hopeful about Mirones because he could self-fund his candidacy. His decision seemingly ensured that NY1 reporter Lisa Giovinazzo would get the GOP’s endorsement. She already seemed to be the consensus choice in May before Republicans unexpectedly settled on Powers instead. But today, Giovinazzo stunned nearly everyone by telling the New York Times that she will not run for Congress!

Keep in mind that this is a GOP-held seat in a district that is not that inhospitable to the party. That Republicans are unable to find any candidate willing to run speaks to how dismal the situation of New York’s GOP has become. Forget finding a second or third tier candidate, the party is now hoping to find any candidate at all. The only decent contender the GOP could still turn to is state Supreme Court Justice Joseph Maltese, but he would have to resign his judicial seat before even starting a run and his name has not been mentioned for a few days. The New York Times reports that the only names the GOP is now circulating aren’t even Republicans, as the party could choose to cross-endorse the candidate of the Conservative Party or the Independent Party. And keep in mind that there were some suggestions earlier this week that the GOP might decide to cross-endorse McMahon!

Democrats are having much less recruitment trouble this cycle, as candidates are more eager to run in election years where everything seems possible. Now, the DCCC looks to have put in play LA-07, a conservative district. State Senator Don Cravins has announced he will run against Rep. Charles Boustany and he will be a very strong challenger to the Republican who won an open seat in 2004 following the retirement of a Democratic congressman — underscoring that this is not an impossible seat for Democrats to win despite the fact that Bush won the district with 60% of the vote in 2004 (55% in 2000). LA-07 has a sizable African-American population which could help Cravins this year. This race remains likely retention for the GOP, but it enters the list of contested seats.

It’s also worth pointing to a new poll of NC-10 released by the independent group PPP that implies that it might be worth looking at this seat:

• In a seat Bush won with 67%, McCain only leads Obama 52% to 31% and heavily-favored GOP incumbent Patrick McHenry is ahead of Daniel Johnson 49% to 38%. The only bright spot for the GOP is that gubernatorial candidate Patrick McCrory is polling at the level he needs to win (55-30%).

NC-10 is on few people’s radar screen and it remains to be seen whether the DCCC can expand the map that much, even with their massive amount of cash-on-hand. If they find that they have money left, they will have a vast array of seats to choose from to test the Republican incumbent, and it looks like NC-10 will be one of them. (There were also a number of Senate polls released today but I will include those in the poll roundup).

Meanwhile, Oregon‘s Republican Senator Gordon Smith followed up his ad featuring the endorsemeng of two Democratic state legislators with a new spot touting his relationship with… Barack Obama! Sure, Oregon is not Mississippi’s first district, where the NRCC tried to hurt the Democratic candidate by running ads about his being endorsed by the Illinois Senator, but for a GOP Senator to feel that Obama is a shoo-in enough in Oregon to justify airing this ad is nothing short of remarkable:

Of course, this says as much about Obama’s chances in Oregon (where polls show him with a lead, albeit not an overwhelming one) as they do about Gordon Smith’s electoral strategy: Appeal to the independents by promoting his bipartisan image and his ability to work across the aisle. Smith has been doing his best to demonstrate his moderate credentials since the beginning of this cycle, when it became evident that the Senator had a target on his back and that his state’s blue leaning would threaten to make him into a new Chaffee.

Smith’s ad comes with risks: If the Republican senatorial candidate is praising Obama, it will make McCain’s hope to contest the state that much more difficult. Furthermore, it might confuse voters as to where Smith stands. After all, the Senator is a McCain supporter. And it will make Smith that much more vulnerable to Obama supporting his opponent Merkley, as it will be justifiably interpreted as a sharp rebuke. Obama wasted no time issuing a statement to remind voters/journalists that he was supporting Merkley.

Finally, to follow up on my discussion of the FISA bill last week, it is worth pointing out to a report that finds that the 94 Democratic House members who once opposed similar FISA bills but voted yes last week received an average of $3000 more from telecommunication companies than Democratic house members who remained opposed to the bill. Nothing surprising here — the power of lobbyists in Washington has been well documented — but still a depressing. The report lists the contributions to all those members, some of which have received a lot of money (and those include many beyond the leadership, including a number of blue dog conservative Democrats who were no doubt going to be the first ones to switch). Note that the Senate vote on the measure was delayed to July, by the way.

Fossella first looked like he was hours from resigning but his friends and allies backtracked as the conventional wisdom became that Fossella was planning on running for re-election, boosted by a SUSA poll that showed him retaining a strong approval rating. But the pressure looks to have been too strong, as Fossella ended up quitting:

After a great deal of consideration, I have made the decision not to seek re-election to the United States House of Representatives this November. This choice was an extremely difficult one, balanced between my dedication to service to our great nation and the need to concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and family.

Fossella thus becomes the second New York politician in the space of three months to fall quite stunningly. Both Spitzer and Fossella were young hotshots who had much larger ambitions — Spitzer was often rumored to be eying a presidential run, while Fossella (who was first elected to the House at 32) was a quickly rising star.

Fossella’s decision also implies that he will not be resigning, so there will be no special election to fill his seat. That is a huge relief to House Republicans, as a low turnout special election would probably have sealed their doom in this swing district that leans ever so slightly Democratic. Bush won here by 11% in 2004 but he lost to Gore in 2000.

Naturally, an open seat will also be a huge headache for Republicans who will struggle to keep any New York seat in their column in November — let alone an open one. Some are saying that Fossella’s retirement is a relief for Republicans because they would have had a tough time holding the seat with the incumbent running again. I do not necessarily agree with that assessment. If no new ethical breached were revealed, I believe Fossella would not have been fatally wounded by this scandal, as the SUSA poll I referenced confirms.

This scandal could have effects further down the ballot. National Republicans are looking at state Senator Andrew D. Lanza to replace Fossella, but that would be a nightmare for Albany Republicans who are clinging to the slimmest of majorities in the state Senate, the last seat of power controlled by the New York GOP. Democrats have their own problems in this district. The district is split between Brooklyn and Staten Island (mostly in the latter) and Democrats have been engaged in a rather nasty (and silly) exchange over whether it is proper for a Brooklyn Democrat to take the party’s nod.

The two candidates who were already running prior to the Fossella scandal were both from Brooklyn, in particular City Councilman Domenic M. Recchia Jr. from Coney Island. Other Democrats who are now looking to join in and are playing up their Staten Island allegiance are state Senator Diane Savino, city counilmember McMahon and Assembly Member Mike Cuisck. All three represent some portion of Staten Island (Swing State Project provides more details about those three potential candidates).

Now, speculation is increasing that Fossella will soon announce that he is not running for re-election, perhaps even resigning before his term is finished. Governor Paterson would then have to decide whether to hold a special election or just wait for November. The Washington Post’s piece starts with “The consensus on Capitol Hill is: Vito is finito” and Roll Call is already reviewing the names of potential candidates that could replace him.

This district covers all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn and is the only seat of New York City represented by a Republican. An open seat in NY-13 would immediately become one of the Democrats’ top opportunities. Not only does it lean Democratic but New York Republicans have been slowly but surely declining into oblivion and their troubles would only be worsened in a presidential year.

So much has gone wrong for the NRCC this cycle — recruitment, special elections, accumulation of open seats, fundraising trouble, first year in the minority and scandals like this — that a double-digit gain for House Democrats is looking increasingly certain.

Meanwhile, the congressional committees have lost all sense of restraint in the MS-01 special election; those 400 votes that Childers was missing to get to a majority on April 22nd are costing a lot to the DCCC which appears to be reporting new expenditures every day with 6 more to go. After a new $200,000 report tonight, the DCCC’s total is brought to $1.6 million (here’s one of the recent ads that the DCCC is running against Greg Davis); the NRCC has spent a little over a million.

That both parties are spending this much suggests that the race is remaining very tight (they are conducting polls, so they know what is going); no matter how close to a victory Childers was 2 weeks ago, Greg Davis definitely retains a chance to keep this district. Remember that Davis is not a deeply flawed candidate the way Oberweis was in IL-14 and Jenkins was in LA-06 and MS-01 is more Republican than both of these districts.

Finally, the North Carolina and Indiana primaries yesterday did more than damage Clinton’s chances for the presidential nomination. They also set the field for some important down-the-ballot races. I alluded to the victors in the results thread last night but here is a quick rundown:

• NC-Sen: State Senator Kay Hagan crushed Jim Neal and can now run against incumbent Elizabeth Dole. While the Republican is heavily favored, most polls show that Hagan could make a move under the right circumstances. A second-tier race with potential to turn more competitive.

• NC-Gov: Both favorites held on to their parties’ nomination by narrow margins. Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Patrick McCrory won the Republican nod. This sets up a much more competitive race than was expected a few months ago. McCrory was the only Republican with a chance of winning in a state that is red at the federal level but often votes Democratic in local races.

• IN-Gov: Former representative Jill Long Thompson won the tightest race of the night (50.3%), overtaking Schellinger’s lead in the last minutes as Lake County finished reporting. She will now face Governor Mitch Daniels to become the state’s first female governor. Polls indicate a toss-up race.

• House races: All incumbents won their re-election battles last night despite an uncommonly high number of competitive races. In the most watched race of the night, North Carolina anti-war Republican Walter Jones survived a challenge from a pro-war candidate 60% to 40%; in Indiana’s 7th district, Andre Carson held on with a plurality of the vote a few weeks after winning his grandmother’s seat in a special election. Both are favored to win the general election.