It’s another Moxie Fab World Challenge!!!! The Gnome was my inspiration for this challenge! I also played off of the light blue colors!

Peace

It’s been a while since I played with my Odd Bird Planet Gnome stamps! The paper is Making Memories Thanksgiving paper from this season.

Materials:

• Odd Bird Planet Kelly’s Stitched Gnome
• CTMH Stamps and Embossing Powder
• Making Memories Paper
• Papertrey Ink Cardstock
• Perfect Match Ink
• Marvy Liquid Applique
• Labels 4 Nestabilities
• Copic Markers

Abreu signed with the Angels.  According to MLBTR, it’s a 2-year deal, terms have not been disclosed.  There’s nothing on the Angels web site yet.

I’m excited.  Abreu did a lot of intangible things for this team that had a direct impact on their performance.  I forget where I read it now, but there was a great article talking about the increase in team OBP in 2009 with Abreu in the lineup.  I’ll have to try to dig it up and find it now.

It’s been almost a month since Theo’s candid appearance on the Sports Hub, and it’s still garnering articles being written about it. It’s almost like the epic battle of analysts vs traditionalists.

One thing that I have addressed before in the past when discussing the stigma surrounding OBP amongst traditionalists is that traditionalists view OBP strictly as a component of walking, and traditionalists don’t view walking as a hitters skill. More proof of this in the following comment on Dugout Central from James:

Doesn’t Drew have a far better chance of doing damage and driving that run in than walking and seeing what Varitek can do?
Following him was Shaun who concisely debunked the misconception that OBP is simply a function of walking a lot:

OBP is NOT about walking. OBP is about getting on base/avoiding outs. Walking is just one way to get on base/avoid an out. Until traditionalists get past equating OBP with walking, they will always live in the dark ages.

Thank you Shaun for your brevity in interpreting the OBP metric accurately. OBP sums up hits, walks and hit by pitches, all the possible ways of getting on base/avoiding an out. I would love to see Shaun’s post get recited everytime a broadcaster says “and he gets his on-base by walking a lot.” It’s more like “and he avoids outs by getting on base a lot.”

A day of contrasting fortunes. Dealing with them in reverse order, this afternoon I proved that lightning can indeed strike twice, as I found my second excessively skulky locustella in as many days. I really must get out of the habit of walking in ditches if this is the outcome. I flushed this one from a tussock at my feet, it flew across the nearby strip of cabbages, and perched briefly in the open before diving into cover. Such dark contrasty tertials, and check out that fine streaking on the breast and flanks… oh shiiiiiit. I phoned the others, and they were not long in coming to help me try to relocate this new bird. And true to form, it sat tight despite repeated attempts to see it, until finally a small, dark bird flew out into some potato haulms in front of BM and JA. And no sooner had they seen it, and we converged onto the mound of haulms, than it had vanished into thin air again. Needless to say, we couldn’t refind it after that. Lanceolated Warblers 2, Bonxie 0.

Which would have completely ruined the day had BM not found an Olive-backed Pipit earlier in the late morning - a very mobile bird that, with patience, one could get reasonable views of. Reasonable views did not always equate to reasonable photos!

It spent a great deal of its time doing this:

No sign of the Woodlark this morning, and indeed it seemed as if a lot of birds (Goldcrests especially) had cleared out overnight. A few more Robins in though, and a few Blackcaps and Chiffchaffs about the place.

システムのデモを見て担当と話し込んでる内にもう夕方じゃないか。
明日は娘の運動会。
なにやら私も一緒に走らなければならないようだ。

先週と同じメニューだな。
午後から京橋のOBPでシステムのデモを鑑賞。

The Venuist is curious as to whether Yankee Stadium (version 2.0, not to be confused with the recently deceased 1.2  version) realizes that Joe Mauer also bats left-handed.  Sure, all summer the Yanks have taken advantage of that short porch (T*V – that’s me – saw this himself his summer) that’s all of three feet tall (my rough and admittedly, inebriated estimate) and twenty-five feet (tops) from Jorge Posada’s crouched knees.  But how’s Joba gonna feel tonight in the top of the seventh when Mauer pops a fly into Joe Bomber-fan’s $10 brewski for the go-ahead run?

Joe Mauer takes a swing, wonders if he $30000 Yankee Stadium seats in the background will get filled for the playoffs.

In the book Moneyball Paul Depodesta looked at OPS, and said it is not a good stat because it implies that On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage are of them same value, when they are not, so when does Slugging Percentage overrule On-Base Percentage?

A team can get three singles in one inning, and then hit into a triple play, making your On-Base Percentage .750, and your Slugging Percentage is 1.333, but you have not scored, but let’s put Triple Plays aside.

How many ways can you score one run in one inning without making an out? (Using station to station baserunning)

• four singles
• one home run
• two doubles
• a triple and a single
• a single and a triple

So all of these are On-Base Percentages of 1.000, and assorted Slugging Percentages of 1.000, 4.000, 2.000, and the final two are also 2.000.  So what is the minimum?

After some research, I found that the minimum was somewhere below .250, meaning that OBP will ALWAYS overrule Slugging Percentage. The closest man to the magic number is Jason Kendall, who is Slugging .304.

Tree Hugger Gnome Meets Earth Love

Happy World Card Making Day!!!

Welcome to the Odd Bird Planet Blog Hop!

Each of the participating OBP DT members will be issuing a challenge.  You will have 24 hours to complete any or all of challenges and post your take on the challenge(s) on your blog, then post the link on the blog of the person who posted that challenge.

You can also share chatter and your completed projects at Odd Bird Planeteer’s Flickr Group.

So, what do you get for completing a challenge, other than the satisfaction of creating a great new project?

Each completed challenge will earn you an entry to win an A La Tarte Halloween kit, which contains cardstock, patterned paper, embellishments, a chipboard book, and the OBP Bat Gate stamp.

International people who complete challenges can win a $50 Gift Certificate to the OBP Store.

Here’s the rest of the crew, in order:

• Godelieve
• Dianne
• Karrie
• Kim
• Laura
• Marnie
• Tiffany (That’s Me)
• Teresa
• Tracy

Here’s my challenge to you: Incorporate woodgrain into your card!

Josh Hamilton had what you would call a “breakout” season in 2008, becoming one of the better outfielders in the game, but this season has been a let-down, also Carlos Quentin, has a breakout season, but not so much this year, which leads into the topic of who is the Josh Hamilton or Carlos Quentin of 09-10?

The candidates are Mark Reynolds, Aaron Hill, Jayson Werth,  and Kendry Morales.

Mark Reynolds has had a monster season by all standards smashing 44 home runs, when his previous career high was just 28, and has hit for a raw line of .253/.353/.550, and is tied for 15th in all of baseball with Kevin Youkilis in that stat. In the field he has been his usual self, posting a UZR/150 of -4.3, which is actually a career low by 1.1 over -3.2 from 2008. He has made just 19 errors to last year’s 34, nearly cutting that in half.  This season he has posted a VORP (hitting and fielding VORPs combined) of 21.6, to last year’s 20.4.

Aaron Hill who was a first round draft pick all the way back in 2003, and has been good when healthy, but never this goHe has blossomed into what appears to be a lot like Jeff Kent, with 36 home runs this year, his previous career high you ask? 17.  He has put up an OBP of just .331, but never has had a high OBP,  and Cito Gaston’s hit your pitch mentality has worked wonders on him, as he is raking the ball and hitting home runs at a rate unprecedented for second baseman. Although he has all those home runs, the low OBP hurts his VORP as it is just 24.0. His defense is average at best, as his UZR/150 is -.8.

Jayson Werth was a 4th outfielder for most of his career, at the end of last season Philadelphia handed him the right field job and he got hot, this year he has slugged 35 home runs.  His raw line is…268/.374/.503, which is a large improvement which has most certainly been fueled by that bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park, so it would not be the same in say Fenway Park, because a lot of his home runs are doubles, or outs in other places, but he will do this for as long as he is in a Phillies uni.

Kendry Morales had big shoes to fill, as when they lost K-Rod and Mark Texiera, they were in trouble, but boy has Morales come through. He has hit 34 home runs in his first year in the majors, while Texiera has hit 39, so Morales has been a huge lift for this team, which is going to the playoffs mostly on him. His raw line is .304/.353/.571, and is doing it at Angel Stadium…

So the question was” who is the next Josh Hamilton/Carlos Quentin? Well one thing we have to be able to say are home runs tend to correlate from season to season, unless a park is changed, like if you go from hitting in the New Yankee Stadium, to hitting in Citifield, you will see a drop off in home runs, but other than that, it will stay the same.  After some research I found that players who do not first see a rise in AVG the season before there SLUG improves, it will likely be a fluke, so looking at it, Werth, Hill, and Reynolds are all due for some “letdowns” next season, so do not draft them high in your fantasy leagues!

Hitting can be broken down into two basic components:  the ability to get on base and the ability to hit for power.  These have been measured in different ways for years.  The oldest measure of hitting is the batting average, which is the rate at which a batter gets a hit (BA=Hits/At Bats).  It ignores times at plate that result in walks or hit batsmen.  Though either outcome involves a batter getting on base, it is not done through a hit and thus is ignored.  In 1876, the first year of the National League, walks were recorded as outs and thus depressed batting average.  Batting average, it appears, has three major flaws:  It measures the rate of an occurence, meaning that a batting average of .333 is the same if we are talking about 1 hit in 3 at bats or 33 in 99.  It ignores other opportunities to get on-base.  It also has no measure of how good a hit occurs.

On-Base Percentage is an attempt to correct for the second of these errors.  OBP=(Hits+Walks+Hit Batsmen)/(At Bats+Walks+Hit Batsmen+Sacrifices+Sacrifice Flies).  This formula brings all plate appearances into the equation (in the denominator) instead of an arbitrarily limited number of at bats.  It also treats all times that a batter gets on base as valuable.  (It does ignore if a batter reaches on an error or on a fielder’s choice, probaby because those are not considered products of the hitter’s skill.)   However, it waits all times on base equally, which seems intuitely mistaken.  A double is better than a walk for two reasons:  It gets a batter one base further, and it has a better chance of advancing preceding baserunners.  Nevertheless, OBP does correct one flaw of batting average.

Slugging percentage attempts to correct batting average’s third flaw.  SLG=(Total Bases/At Bats).  The denominator is the same as battign average, but the numerator is total bases, i.e. how many bases a batter gets from all of his hits combined.  Slugging percentage ignores other ways to get on base, focusing solely on the power of hits.  It has the advantage of treating a home run as more valuable than a single, but it still ignores the importance of getting on base without a hit.  To solve the flaws of OBP and SLG, they are added together to create OPS.

OPS=OBP+SLG.  This stat is probably the most visible sabermetric batting statistic.  It creates a scale that gives weight to all times on base and to the value of hits beyond singles.  However, it has the weakness of all rate stats.  It measures how often a batter does its given elements, and not how many.  While it might be useful to know that a batter reaches base 40% of the time, it also helps to know how many times he reaches base.  An OPS of 1.000 is outstanding, but and OPS of .990 in twice as many plate appearances is more valuable to a team.  Once again, health is important in measuring skill.  It is not sufficient to make an OPS of .500 as valuable as an OPS of 1.000 if the lesser player is twice as healthy.  But it is incredibly important in deciding tough cases.

To check the OBP variables in your Solaris SPARC server and leaving Solaris up and running, you’ll need to use the eeprom command

root@solaris:/ # eeprom
asr-policy=normal
test-args: data not available.
diag-passes=1
local-mac-address?=true
fcode-debug?=false
scsi-initiator-id=7
oem-logo: data not available.
oem-logo?=false
oem-banner: data not available.
oem-banner?=false
ansi-terminal?=true
screen-#columns=80
screen-#rows=34
ttyb-rts-dtr-off=false
ttyb-ignore-cd=true
ttya-rts-dtr-off=false
ttya-ignore-cd=true
ttyb-mode=9600,8,n,1,-
ttya-mode=9600,8,n,1,-
output-device=ttya
input-device=ttya
auto-boot-on-error?=true
error-reset-recovery=sync
load-base=16384
auto-boot?=true
network-boot-arguments: data not available.
boot-command=boot
diag-file: data not available.
diag-device=disk0:a
boot-file: data not available.
boot-device=vx-rootdisk vx-rootmirr
use-nvramrc?=false
nvramrc=devalias vx-rootdisk /pci@1c,600000/scsi@2/disk@0,0:a
devalias vx-rootmirr /pci@1c,600000/scsi@2/disk@3,0:a
security-mode=none
security-password: data not available.
security-#badlogins=0
verbosity=normal
diag-trigger=error-reset power-on-reset
service-mode?=false
diag-script=normal
diag-level=max
diag-switch?=false

DISCLAIMER:  This isn’t a “Fire Ron Gardenhire” post, and nothing you see on this site is.  I ragged on him in my last post (months ago, and for the same reason), but despite his awful lineup management, he’s still one of the better managers in baseball.  The Twins aren’t likely to fire him anytime soon and it is even more unlikely that they’d hire someone as good to replace him. 

A little recommended reading, to better understand what follows. 

In Joe Mauer’s career, he’s batted directly behind the following hitters:

Nick Punto (171 games)
Alexi Casilla (93)
Jason Bartlett (62)
Luis Castillo (52)
Brendan Harris (48)
Orlando Cabrera (42)
Denard Span (26)
Matt Tolbert (25)
Luis Rodriguez (24)
Lew Ford (22)
Jason Kubel (12)
Matthew LeCroy (12)
Jason Tyner (11)
Juan Castro (9)
Shannon Stewart (9)
Brent Abernathy (7)
Carlos Gomez (6)
Jacque Jones (6)
Jose Offerman (3)
Mike Lamb (2)
Jeff Cirillo (2)
Bret Boone (2)
Terry Tiffee (1)
Luis Rivas (1)
Glenn Williams (1)
Torii Hunter (1)
Cristian Guzman (1)
Michael Restovich (1)

Broken down by year:

2009
Orlando Cabrera (42)
Brendan Harris (29)
Denard Span (23)
Matt Tolbert (13)
Alexi Casilla (9)
Carlos Gomez (2)
Nick Punto (1)

2008
Alexi Casilla (78)
Nick Punto (20)
Brendan Harris (19)
Matt Tolbert (12)
Carlos Gomez (4)
Denard Span (3)
Mike Lamb (2)

2007
Jason Bartlett (45)
Nick Punto (28)
Luis Castillo (12)
Jason Kubel (9)
Jason Tyner (5)
Alexi Casilla (5)
Jeff Cirillo (2)

2006
Nick Punto (74)
Luis Castillo (40)
Lew Ford (8)
Luis Rodriguez (5)
Jason Tyner (4)
Jason Kubel (3)
Jason Bartlett (1)
Alexi Casilla (1)

2005
Nick Punto (48)
Luis Rodriguez (19)
Jason Bartlett (16)
Juan Castro (9)
Shannon Stewart (9)
Brent Abernathy (7)
Lew Ford (6)
Bret Boone (2)
Jason Tyner (2)
Terry Tiffee (1)
Luis Rivas (1)
Jacque Jones (1)
Glenn Williams (1)
Torii Hunter (1)

2004
Matthew LeCroy (12)
Lew Ford (8)
Jacque Jones (5)
Jose Offerman (3)
Cristian Guzman (1)
Michael Restovich (1)

Thats 28 different hitters, and 49 individual seasons for those hitters.  Of those 49, 32 posted a sub-league-average OBP (65%).  Use OPS+ (where 100 is league-average) and you have 42 sub-league-average seasons (86%).  If you want to narrow the sample to players who started at least 10 games in a season in front of Mauer, you have 17 hitter-seasons.  Of those 17, only Denard Span’s 2009 campaign has resulted in an OPS+ over 100.  One of seventeen.

Using a fairly crude method, I weighted each hitter’s season according to how many games they started in front of Mauer.  For example, Span’s 2009 would be weighted be weighted as such for OBP (.387 * 23 = 8.901), and as (117 * 23 = 2691) for OPS+.  In this way, I’ve properly weighted Span’s 23 games in 2009 against Glenn Williams’ 1 game hitting in front of Mauer in 2005 (when Williams had a .452 OBP and 141 OPS+ over 13 games).  After adding each hitter’s weighted value, I divided by the total number of games Mauer started, ending up with an average OBP and OPS+ for each season as well as Mauer’s career.

Okay, so we can see that Gardy isn’t putting very good hitters in front of the best left-handed hitter in baseball.  But why?  I’m still not satisfied, lets break it down further.

Here are the 2-hitters when Mauer hits third, usually the weak-hitting middle infield-types that Gardy thinks belong in the 2-hole:

And when Mauer’s a 2-hitter, he hits behind, you know, leadoff hitters.  You may have heard that leadoff hitters often have high OBPs.

So, since most teams put their best hitter in the 3-hole, I wondered how many AL managers have the same philosophy as Ron Gardenhire, sticking a poor-hitting middle infielder in the 2-hole, just because that’s where they belong.  Here’s a huge table:

Sorted by OBP, Orlando Cabrera as a Twin is the worst 2-hitter in the AL in the last 6 seasons.  Gardy’s 2-hitters rank 36th, 57th, 63rd, 80th, 82nd, and 84th out of 84.

Same huge table, sorted by OPS+:

Gardy’s boys look even worse here.  ‘09 Cabrera and ‘05 Punto have the two worst seasons by 2-hitters in the last six years when ranked by OPS+, and none of the six are above league-average.  Twins 2-hitters in the last six seasons rank 57th, 60th, 67th, 80th, 83rd, and 84th out of 84 over the last six years.

Mr. Gardenhire, maybe these aren’t the guys you want hitting in front of Joe Mauer.  Move him up to the 2-hole, or at the very least put somebody decent in front of him if you insist on keeping him third.

EDIT:  Here’s where Harris, Tolbert, and Casilla’s 2009s would fall on the same tables.  Along with Cabrera, this group has hit in front of Mauer for 86 of his 87 games in the 3-hole.

If you’re not catching what I’m getting at, Joe Mauer has 88 runs batted in while hitting behind those guys.  Derek Jeter is not the AL MVP.  Joe Mauer is.

Despite a productive partnership, once the ‘09 season is completed, the Yankees will likely cut ties with current DH, Hideki Matsui. The the only reason for the relationship’s end is Matsui’s lack of positional flexibility—that and age. With several large contracts on the books and a number of aging players on the roster, the Yankees don’t want another aging player clogging up the DH spot for the better part of the season. Matsui’s knees prevent him from playing the outfield, even sporadically. Thus, the revolving DH idea has gained a footing.

However, while it’s nice to filter your veterans through the DH role in order to provide them with ample resting opportunities, by losing a regular DH, especially one as good as Hideki Matsui, you create a significant void in your lineup. If your bench is constructed well, then perhaps a team can absorb such a loss, since no regular DH means more playing time for the part-timers. If not, though, the entire offense begins to suffer. For that reason, I believe that the Yankees should, in fact, bring in a new DH, except they should bring in one that can help them on the field a bit, too.

Here are a few options that I think fit the bill:

1. Nick Johnson – Johnson, 31, a former Yankee, would be a nice addition to the lineup. Between the Marlins and the Nationals, he is hitting .301/.427/.423 with 8 HR and 61 RBI. Although his power has diminished, his eye remains a force as he can still get on base with the best of them (17.1 BB%). He would wear the team’s offensive style pretty well. Johnson has dealt with injury issues his entire career, including this season, when he was placed on the DL with hamstring problems. However, when he’s right he can be an extremely productive player. He’s having his worst defensive year at first base, but it could be an aberration or injury-related given Johnson’s historically positive ratings there. If he signs with the Yankees, he can DH to stay fresh and help in the infield when Tex needs a day off. In an effort to keep Johnson healthy, the Yankees could also choose to rest him throughout the season, which would allow others to slot in at DH from time to time.

2. Adam LaRoche - While I think Johnson is probably a better fit, LaRoche could also be a good DH candidate. He has his fair share of problems, in that he’s better known as a second half hitter, he struggles against lefties, and he’s not a particularly good defender, but, as a DH, two of these issues can be resolved (the Yankees can sit him against some lefties so that others can DH for the day). Between the Pirates, Red Sox and now the Braves, LaRoche is hitting .273/.348/.489 and has 23 HR. While powerful, he doesn’t do anything particularly well—he doesn’t walk much and he strikes out a lot (his 0.48 BB/K is the second worst in the NL)—yet his value would be boosted, I think, if given a DH role. Plus, LaRoche will turn 30 in November, so he’s surprisingly young. The Yankees can afford to sit him against some lefties, as I mentioned before, which would open up DH opportunities for A-Rod, Jeter, Damon (if he returns) and Posada. Of course, Teixeira would be well rested, too, since LaRoche can play first.

3. Bobby Abreu – Surprised? Bobby Abreu was one of the best free agent signings this offseason, given his price ($5 million) and his overall value (2.6 WAR). He’s still an awful outfielder, but he’s hitting .299/.399/.435 and has been a force in LA’s lineup. By giving him a DH role, the Yankees get a player capable of stealing 20 bases, driving in 100 runs, and, in Yankee Stadium, maybe Abreu can hit 18-20 homers. Of course, we know what Abreu can do, firsthand. He can help out in right field a few days a month so that the Yankees can rest others and Girardi can sit him based on matchups, so that the others can DH. In terms of Abreu’s fielding, the defensive lapses would be manageable as long as he produces offensively. Abreu may also be a shorter commitment than Johnson or LaRoche, given his age (although he may earn more per year).

These are three options that work, in some way, for the reasons I’ve provided. Each player I’ve listed is somewhat limited in their positional flexibility—Johnson, LaRoche and Abreu only play one position a piece—yet, in terms of fielding value and versatility, they offer more than what Hideki Matsui did as a DH only. Abreu and Johnson seem like the best fits with LaRoche being an outside option. One player that people might mention that I have not is Vladimir Guerrero, although he may be far too similar to Hideki Matsui (why not resign Matsui). The Yankees could also try and bring back Xavier Nady who can play first and right field (health permitting). What do you think? If you don’t like these guys—Johnson, Abreu and LaRoche—are there any other players you’d like to see the Yankees pursue for DH?

Posted: September 11, 2009

September (and early October) is when a fantasy baseball crown is earned.  5 months of day-to-day team operation, moving players in-and-out of the lineup, playing hunches for match-ups and watching your caps on innings and position maximums all comes down to the final few weeks.  That All-Star who helped you so much in the first half hasn’t done anything since June, and that unsung hero who surprised the world in July and August is starting to fall off.  You’re in third, fourth or fifth in your league, but you just need that little extra to get over the hump.  Here are a couple quick tips:

First, now’s not the time to be patient.  If those guys we just talked about are bringing you down, dump them and go with a hot bat or arm.  Second, be cautiously aggressive.  One bad outing by a pitcher, or an 0-fer by a hitter, is not going to harm your average numbers enough to warrant not pulling the trigger, especially in leagues that score beyond the traditional 5×5.  I’m not saying snag any bat or arm in hopes they go off, but if you see a pitcher with a solid match-up or a hitter who’s starting to roll, jump on them!

Here are 10 players who could help you down the stretch (that are most likely still available in your league).

HITTERS

• Marlon Byrd (OF)  Projection: 72 AB, .319 Avg, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 9 R, 7 2B, 1 SB
  

On the season, Byrd’s numbers are respectable: .287 Avg, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 59 R, 40 2B, 8 SB.  Over the last week, he’s been on a tear: .542 Avg, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 5 R.  He’ll probably come back to Earth, but if you need outfield help, he is extremely consistent, and his remaining schedule is favorable: vs Sea, vs Oak, vs LAA, @ Oak, vs TB, @LAA, @ Sea.

• Nick Johnson (1B)  Projection: 65 AB, .353 Avg, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 5 2B

Johnson is, simply put, a professional hitter.  He’s not going to give you a power boost, but he’ll give you a slight bump in average, run production and doubles.  He’ll also take a walk or three.  Last week: .429 Avg, 8 RBI, 3 R, 3 2B.  Season (415 AB): .304 Avg, 7 HR, 59 RBI, 60 R, 22 2B.

• Michael Brantley (OF)  Projection: 71 AB, .281 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 13 R, 7 SB
  

With Grady Sizemore done for the year, the 22 year-old Brantley is getting a chance to show the Indians what he can do.  His small sample-size (33 AB, .364 Avg, 5 RBI, 5 R, 2 SB) is but a taste of his big-time potential.  The average and RBI production will probably take a dip, but the runs are real and the steals should go up.  2009 Minor League numbers (457 AB): .267 Avg, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 80 R, 46 SB.

• Alex Gordon (3B)  Projection: 61 AB, .328 Avg, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 6 2B, .423 OBP

Gordon has had a rough year.  After missing 3 months with an injury, the Royals sent him back to the Minors to right the ship.  That, he did.  In 104 Minor League at-bats, he posted solid numbers (.327 Avg, .451 OBP, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 22 R, 7 2B).  In the 2 games since his return to KC, he’s already homered, doubled, taken 2 walks and scored 3 runs.  It looks like he’s on track for a good September.

• Jeff Baker (1B, 2B, 3B)  Projection: 65 AB, .338 Avg, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 11 R, .411 OBP

Since being traded to the Cubs, Baker quietly leads the NL in hitting (43-128, .336 Avg).  He doesn’t do anything spectacularly, but he’s playing everyday and batting in the middle of the order.  Plus, he qualifies at multiple positions in most leagues.

Honorable Mention: Spot start Eric Young Jr., if you need runs and steals.  He’s doesn’t have an everyday job, but if he’s in the Rockies‘ lineup, consider putting him in yours. Projection: 39 AB, .308, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 13 R, 7 SB

PITCHERS

• Robinson Tejeda Projection: 4 Starts, 25 IP, 2 W, 2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28 K

With Brian Bannister and Gil Meche probably done for the year, Tejeda will remain in the rotation until season’s end.  His match-ups are just okay (@Det, @CWS, vs. Min, @NYY), but if he pitches anything like he has in his last 2 outings (11.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 R, 4 BB, 14 K vs the Tigers and Angels), he could be a great late-season spot start.

• Ross Ohlendorf Projection: 5 Starts, 34 IP, 2 W, 2.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 32 K

Over the past month, Ohlendorf has been solid (27.1 IP, 1 W, 2.30 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 28 K), and he completely shut down Albert Pujols and the Cardinals in his last outing, a no-decision effort (8 IP, 4 hits, 0 R, 1 BB, 11K).  Counting his start today at Houston, he has 5 starts left, including home versus the Padres, at the Cubs, and 2 against the Dodgers (home and away).

• Wade Davis Projection: 5 Starts, 31 IP, 3 W, 3.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 36 K

Davis, the Rays’ top pitching prospect, stymied Detroit in his Major League debut (7 IP, 3 hits, 1 Run, 1 BB, 9 K).  His projection above is slightly skewed, as he faces Boston today and the Yankees in his final start of the season.  In the other 3 he is @ Bal, vs Sea, vs Bal, and he will likely dominate.

• Brian Duensing Projection: 4 Starts, 26 IP, 2 W, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21 K

The 26 year-old Duensing has had 4 solid starts in a row for the Twins: 24 IP, 2 W, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 20 K.  His final 4 match-ups are not overly scary: vs Oak, vs Det, @ KC, @ Det.  He should keep rolling.

• Jamie Moyer Projection: 4 Starts, 25 IP, 2 W, 2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 18 K

Moyer is starting today against the Mets, and with J.A. Happ nursing an oblique strain and the Phillies on a bit of a decline, the crafty veteran could be in line for some starts as the playoffs near.  Watch the match-ups, but don’t be afraid to use the soft-tossing Moyer, if you’re in need of some W’s down the stretch.

Scary But True

Hello There!!! You must be joining me from my Aussie friend, Teresa’s blog! If not, please join us for the annual Odd Bird Planet Halloween Blog Hop!!! It starts with Karrie!

I was TOTALLY feeling the whole ghost and fog thing for my card!!! I used Clear Cardstock and Vellum to represent the spooky side of Halloween (my fave holiday)!!!!

Materials:

• Odd Bird Planet Stamps, Webby Border and JJ mix alpha
• Papertrey Ink Clear, Kraft, and vellum Cardstock, black satin ribbon
• Cosmo Cricket Haunted
• Stampendous fine black glitter
• Stampin Up heat and stick powder
• CTMH Clear Ink
• Heat fun
• Orange Gelly Roll Glitter Pen
• black Staz-on

Directions:

1. Stamp Webby Border on 5.5″x 2.5″ Kraft Cardstock in Clear/Versamark Ink. Sprinkle with heat & stick powder and tap excess. Heat. Apply fine black glitter and heat set again. Trim.
2. Using Alpha Stamps, stamp “scary but true” on an equally sized piece of vellum with Staz-on. Color with Orange Gelly Roll Glitter Pen.
3. Adhere Webby Border over vellum portion with zip dry. Adhere to an acetate card front 5.5″x4.25″.
4. Adhere a coordinating 5.25″x4″ piece of haunted paper on the inside with zip dry.
5. Place scor-tape where the pleated ribbon will go. Apply pleated ribbon, tucking in edges.

To view the entire Halloween catalog from Odd Bird Planet, go HERE!!!! But beware, you cart might fill fast

Also, YOUR NEXT STOP IS the ever-so-talented TRACY!!!!

On Monday, August 10th of 2009, Vladimir Guerrero blasted his 400th home run of his illustrious 13+ year career.

Not only would his blast eventually lock up a win for the Angels against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays, it also virtually locks him into being a future Hall of Famer after the “Big Daddy” decides to hang ‘em up.

Vladdy became the 45th player in Major League Baseball history to reach the 400 home run plateau. Of the other 44:

- 23 are in the Hall of Fame

- 8 are still playing

Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, Chipper Jones, Jason Giambi

- 1 will be eligible for being elected this year

Fred McGriff

- 7 aren’t yet Hall of Fame eligible as of 2010

Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez, Mike Piazza

That just leaves out Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Dave Kingman, Andre Dawson, and Darrell Evans as the only members of the 400 home run club who have not yet been enshrined in Cooperstown.

Let’s take a quick look at some of Vlad’s career numbers:

- 2004 American League MVP

- 8-time All-Star

- 7-time Silver Slugger Award Winner

- 2007 Home Run Derby Champion

His best year can be debated between 2000 with the then-Montreal Expos:

.345 avg./.410 OBP/.664 SLG/101 R/197 H/28 2B/11 3B/44 HR/123 RBI

or in 2004, his first year with the Angels, in which he won the AL MVP award:

.337 avg./.391 OBP/.598 SLG/124 R/206 H/39 2B/2 3B/39 HR/126 RBI

My vote would have to go to the year where he put a team on his back and single-handedly willed himself and his team into the postseason, with that year being 2004 in Angel red.

Vladdy has posted years of a .300 batting average, 30+ home runs, and 100+ RBI in 10 of 11 seasons where he appeared in over 112 games.

Despite being arguably the biggest free-swinger the game has ever seen, Vlad has hit over .300 in every full season’s he’s played in (.302, .324, .316, .345, .307, .336, .330, .337, .317, .329, .324, .303).

To go along with his “hack away” mentality, Vlad has never struck out 100 times or more in any season, a rarity that possibly may never be seen again.

To-date, the injury-plagued 2009 season could mark the first year where Vladdy’s batting average falls below the .300 line… and he’s batting .299.

He posted 2 years of 30+ home runs and 30 + stolen bases back in 2001 and 2002 with Montreal.

Entering the 2009 season, Guerrero’s career numbers ranked pretty high up on the all-time lists:

- #13 all-time – slugging percentage  (.575)

- #43 all-time – batting average (.323)

- #99 all-time – on-base percentage (.389)

Although his current career statistics are so staggering, the thing that makes Vlad so special is that he is more than a rare breed of a hitter.

Sure, there have been hitters before Vladdy who could turn their wooden bat into a 9-iron and literally golf a pitch that bounces in the dirt, 430 feet away to straightaway center. Sure, there have been hitters before Vladdy that make you feel the breeze from every swing he takes… even if you’re sitting in the cheap outfield seats. Sure, there have been hitters before Vladdy that make you marvel at the raw strength that they possess to muscle a ball in off their hands, to the deep power alleys of a ballpark.

Sure, that puts Vlad in rare and special company, but the thing that makes Vlad so unique, is that he has the uncanny ability of turning a pitcher’s best pitch into a ball that lands deep into the left field stands.

Growing up in the Dominican Republic, Guerrero would play stickball with his friends, a game where a thin stick would be used as a bat, and a rock as a ball. The object, like baseball, was to hit the rock into play, but there was a catch… you had to hit the ball, regardless of where it was thrown. Vladdy’s roots haven’t left him.

A sharp-breaking 12-6 curveball could start right in the middle of the plate and drop down to his shoetops, but Vlad, the great “bad ball” hitter that he is, uncoils that powerful swing of his, and makes his way around the bases, giving the fans in the cheap seats a souvenir.

A 100 mile per hour fastball could run inside on him, but he’d get the bat out in front and send a 450+ foot mammoth blast sailing into the night.

And he’s been having fun all the way through. His big smile could light up a dark room with ease.

Here’s to the guy who truly deserves it.

A once-in-a-generation type of hitter who swings at everything, and hardly misses anything (as Rex Hudler says, “from his nose, to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes!”).

(Here’s a funny video of a guy spot-on imitating (duplicating sounds about right) Vlad’s quirky stance/swing… in front of the man himself!)

A player who was both a contact and a power hitter.

A player with one of the best cannon arms to ever play right field (as ESPN anchor Stuart Scott said following Vlad gunning a guy out at third, “he’s a mutant!”).

A player who could do it all.

Here’s to you, Vladdy. And as much as it’s hard to believe after your remarkable 13-year career (and still going), you will continue to be on your way to bigger and better things.

The baseball world congratulates you on reaching another incredible milestone.

A while back, I wrote a post about the importance of On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (Slugging) to scoring runs. OBP measures how often players reach base safely on hits and walks, and slugging averages out a players total bases per at bat, giving more weight to extra base hits. People who have read Moneyball by Michael Lewis know that the Oakland “secret” was all about getting guys on base at a high rate, thus higher OBPs. I have also shown that the simple sum of these two stats – OBP and Slugging – into a stat called OPS has an exceptionally higher correlation to runs scored. But the question of which is more important, OBP or slugging, is a little trickier to pinpoint, until one clicks the “data analysis” button on Excel.

Multiple linear regression is a complex statistical…just kidding. Excel tells me this: based on the last 10 years of teams stats, OBP and Slugging alone are able to statistically explain about 90% of the variance in run scoring. (This is a pretty damn good figure to work with FYI.) An increase of about 28 OBP points (like 0.400 to 0.428) and 48 slugging points contributes to ONE extra run scored per game by a team. So does this mean that OBP is 1.7 times as important  as slugging (48/28)? Not exactly. Remember that OBP and Slugging share some stats: when a team gets any kind of hit, it is recorded both in the OBP and in the slugging, just in different ways. This means that OBP and Slugging have some correlation to each other.

Though not quite 1.7, OBP is sill about 1.2 times as important as Slugging. So even though OBP/Slugging splits of 350/550 and 450/450 produce the same OPS, it is likely that the 450/450 split will produce more runs.