We delivered this clip for our client last week. It was screened for our client, our client’s boss, his boss and their boss. That far up, surely that has to be Barrack himself? Anyway, after the screening, they burst into a round of applause! So our client is very happy indeed.

Smoky souvenirs

The man in front of me was very elegant, had impeccable manners, if only he had been smoking less. His corner office in the Tokyo HQ of his corporation, was indeed slowly delivering to its occupants, including me, an unbreathable cocktail of fine dusts and nicotine-tar loaded particles that probably still stains my lungs today.

We had been discussing how my company (Riskope) could deliver to his organization emergency planning, crisis management in that difficult time, during the 2003 SARS outbreak. They had operations all over the world, including China.

The green tea, brought in by a very nice secretary, kneeling down in front of us in compliance with long to die traditions, was helping me to endure the chemical attack. I was at my third cup, and the man was telling me how each one of their expatriate managers and their families in continental China was critical for operations.

When I asked if they had crisis management/emergency planning in place the man replied swiftly: “No”, and sipped another little green tea, lighting another sigarette.

I immediately asked him, frankly mesmerized: “…But, what will you do, if the worse happens and your managers and/or their families fall sick there?”

The reply came down as a dagger: “…Then we will send in the second wave!”

What has changed between 2003 and today?

Well, as far as I can see, not much: there are still organizations who sit totally unprepared and will decide later what to do, when, may be, the bulk of their personnel will be home infected with the new flu.

That’s not precisely the way a responsible corporation/manager prepares to a very likely hazard which may bring in serious risks!

An epidemic is a crisis: a crisis like another, and “survival techniques/rules” exist.

The first step is to systematically anticipate and respond to threats. Crisis-prepared companies suffer fewer disasters and recover more quickly than crisis-prone firms. They also stay in business longer and are more profitable.

To be one of those long term survivors recognize the barriers preventing foreseeing risk scenarios:

psychological biases, information silos, prestige and arrogance.

Develop formal risk assesments and crisis/emergency plans.

Then, if and when risks become reality, follow your pre-defined plans, contain the crisis by acting decisively and quickly.

As a reminder: the SARS Outbreak (2003)

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was a pneumonia like illness that claimed more than 50 victims across Asia. In February 2003, this disease spread to Hong Kong: of the 1,755 people who were infected, 299 died.

The disease raised questions about tech companies’ operations in Hong Kong, similar to the issues raised by an earthquake that shook Taiwan in 1999. That quake severely disrupted manufacturing at the Hsinchu industrial park south of Taipei, and in the process created shortages of graphics chips, memory chips and other components necessary for building personal computers and laptops. Personal computer makers took a indirect but rather significant hit from that quake.

As Asian authorities scrambled to contain the outbreak of SARS, citizens in the region reportedly turned to the Internet and mobile communications to protest public health policy and spread word of traditional Asian remedies for the deadly virus (Maunder et al., 2003).

The SARS outbreak in Toronto, which began on Mar. 7, 2003, resulted in extraordinary public health and infection control measures.

In a 4-week period, 19 individuals developed SARS, including 11 health care workers. The hospital’s response included establishing a leadership command team and a SARS isolation unit, implementing mental health support interventions for patients and staff, overcoming problems with logistics and communication, and overcoming resistance to directives. Patients with SARS reported fear, loneliness, boredom and anger, and they worried about the effects of quarantine and contagion on family members and friends. They experienced anxiety about fever and the effects of insomnia. Staff was adversely affected by fear of contagion and of infecting family, friends and colleagues. Caring for health care workers as patients and colleagues was emotionally difficult. Uncertainty and stigmatization were prominent themes for both staff and patients (Skowronski et al., 2005).

On April 14th 2010 Franco is invited to give a half-day long short course at a mining conference in Santiago de Chile.
More information here (in Spanish)

Similar short courses (customized to your company’s needs) can be organized world-wide, or you can opt for a remote-education solution, as explained here (in English).

In February 2010 there will be a 3×2.5hrs webcast by Cesar and Franco, organized by Edumine, from Vancouver. Let us know if you are interested.

Examples of courses contents

Link between the so called financial and non financial risks .

Unified transparent approach to R&CM.

R&CM have evolved from an “after the fact” implementation into a “pre-feasibility” exercise, and decision making support tools.

Evolution of Qualitative, Quantitative approaches in Risk Assessment.

Example of recent and well knowns crises, disasters.

History of some critical decisions examples.

Discussion of various common behavioral biases.

Quantifying the losses for a better grasp on reality.

How to present risks in a clear and transparent way avoiding the “overwhelming syndrome”.

Various risk representations are intuitively presented, as they apply to real life case studies.

Lesson learned from past experience.

How you could use your risk management program to get the most value for you and your company.

Real cases about CDA/ESM applications.

Balangero Asbestos Tailings Dump case study.

KISS approach to Risk Based decision making.

Crisis models and management.

Crisis Management…prediction of depth and duration of economic turmoil.

I started with the briefing of the first year students who passes the entrance examination. Among the 250 first year students, only 29 of them pass the subject maybe some of them have experience in using computer or maybe  some of them don’t have.

Its amazing in my part because the time that I introduced the topics, most of them are reactive, participative and familiar of the things that I had been discussing.

In the top most of my topic, I found out that students who seated on the back part of the Computer Laboratory are students who came from the barrios and other part of the island who do not have technology experienced by other students.

I realized that the strategy that I use is not effective to all my students. That’s why I group them and have a special tutorials during free time and during vacant time. After a month they can interact with the other students because they fell that they are part of the class….

How is my story?hahaha…funny!that was happened in our province..

Below are the topics and tips that was discussed last June during the start of the class.

Lesson 1

ICT stands for Information and Communication Technology. It is defined, for the purposes of this basic coverage as a “diverse set of technological tools and resources, used to communicate. Data is a collection of raw facts, numbers, letters, symbols, or any combination of these that, when arrange provide a result. Information is the data made to be meaningful based on the needs of the user through manipulation. In computer terms information means processed data.

TYPES OF INFORMATION

1. Operational – information pertaining to the daily details that go into running an organization (e.g. receipts, invoices, service records, payroll, etc.)
2. Management – information needed to perform the functions of planning, organizing, directing and controlling. Such information includes those coming from external sources.
3. Strategic – information that is mission critical and relates directly t the thrust of the organization that is required to act in accordance with the environment or market or competition.

DESIRABLE QUALITIES OF INFORMATION

1. Relevant – it must be important to the person receiving or using it.
2. Complete – no vital information should be omitted
3. Timely – information must be available when needed.
4. Accurate – validity of information is necessary for sound decision-making.
5. Presentable – good presentation makes information more understandable.
6. Cost Effective – only essential data processing should be carried out.

Lesson 1.1

Data Processing Methods

Throughout the centuries the changing nature and the sheer volume of data coupled with advancements in technology resulted in a gradual evolution of data processing methods. Regardless of manner of processing data, the objectives of data processing as well as data processing model are still the same.

• Manual Data Processing – implies the extended use of human labor in the processing of data. With these methods, pencils, pens, rulers, worksheets or similar items are used to process data. Such a method is slow and relatively inaccurate and could not support rapidly expanding information requirements

• Mechanical Data Processing – involves the use of machines or devices that alter transmit and direct applied forces. Common examples are mechanical calculator, manual typewriters, and manual cash registers. This method offers the advantages of greater computational speed, accuracy, and legibility, but it requires higher processing volume to justify investments costs.

• Electromechanical Data Processing – involves the use of mechanical devices with electric motors allowing them to carry out any operation. Printers were incorporated to show all the calculations that have been carried out and give a permanent record.

• Electronic Data Processing – the electronic method has proven to have superior capacity to perform computations and other functions at incredible speeds. This is made possible by using the movement of electrical impulses that passes through electronic devices to process data, rather than by the movements of mechanical parts.

The flow of data form the moment it is recorded until the time it becomes usable information is traced taking into consideration what was actually done on the data in the process of transforming it into information.

FIVE MAJOR PHASES

1. ORIGINATION – raw data is first captured, filled in, and recorded on some forms or source documents as transactions occur.

Original source documents are important for two reasons:
• To verify of the accuracy of data
• To be used as a basis for all further actions

This original data might be handwritten, typewritten or prepared in a variety of ways (e.g. employee attendance data for the computation of earnings could be handwritten, stamped by a Bundy clock, or punched on the time card)

2. INPUT PREPARATION – source documents are collected and converted into a form acceptable for digital processing. This is concerned with the accuracy and completeness of data to ensure data integrity.

• Editing/Sorting – significant data are selected and those which do not need to be processed are eliminated. This ensures that all relevant data are available.

• Coding – this reduces the amount of data to be processed through the used of a code (symbolic, usually shorter, representation of a thing or a fact and is comprised of alphanumeric characters) used for the following purposes:

• To reduce the amount of data to be recorded thereby minimizing processing time and cost

• To conceal confidential data or information

• To saves effort and space

• To facilitate error correction

• Verifying – the accuracy of data gathered is checked by comparing the original source document against the data preparation form.

3. PROCESSING – actual operations are performed on data to convert it into information.

• Classifying – data is systematically grouped based on common characteristics (e.g. gender, group, occupation, nationality, citizenship, school, type, department, position, length of service, educational background/attainment)

• Sorting – classified data is physically separated and rearranged into a predetermined sequence, numerically or alphabetically, in ascending or descending order (e.g. by surname, by invoice number)

• Calculating – arithmetical formulas/processes are applied to the data (e.g. finagl grade, average quiz)

• Summarizing – the level of details of data are reduced, generally by listing or tabulating data and totaling each list (e.g. number of failures, number of students in the honor roll)

4. OUTPUT PREPARATION – the processed information is prepared in a format acceptable to the user for analysis or as input for a second cycle.

• Report production – the information gathered is made readable and relevant to users in the form of a report.

• Communicating to the user – the information transmitted to the user in printed or oral form, such as via mail or telephone lines.

5. STORAGE AND FEEDBACK – the result of the processed data is stored for the future use or retrieval. The feedback function is the key to control business.

• Storing – the processed data is stored for future reference or use as input for other processes for the generation of other information. The cost of generating that same piece of information is minimized. Stored information ranges from manually keeping or record or filing of physical documents or reports in filing cabinets to storage in a computer memory.

• Retrieving – storing considers ease of retrieving which may be done manually or with the aid of machine. This is easier if the information is sorted.

• Feedback – the output is compared to and the goal set in advance. Any discrepancy is analyzed, corrected, and feedback to the proper stage in the cycle. The feedback step permits a business person to follow up on essential information and to attain worthwhile goals.

As a Risk & Crisis Manager working all over the world supporting corporations, governmental agencies and individuals in their decision making and alternatives selection process we have learned that we, human beings, share very strong and significant common traits, despite the apparent huge differences contributing to make our world such a colorful and wonderful place.

We are neither psychologists nor sociologists, so we will leave the discussion related to the origins of these common traits to those specialists.

However, we feel it necessary to dress a list, to raise awareness, as we believe that the world would be a better place, and more importantly that we would build a better future if we were to modify our behavior in these areas.

To make it simpler and clearer we will not describe the traits themselves, but compile instead a list of typical phrases that reflect those traits. The list is split in four categories, A to D, describing the situation in which a person “normally/unfortunately” generally comes out with a phrase (I have included four examples per category) corresponding to a trait that we should modify.

So, for example: WHEN….A) People are made aware of a hazard (something unpleasant that could happen to that person), they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. oh, yeah, I know, but that will not happen to me…because I know better, I am lucky, It has never happened before….
2. well, it has happened last year/in the last five-ten years, so we are good for a while.
3. actually we had a security system for that, we we turned it off, as the alarm was scaring off people…and you see, no accident has happened yet!
4. Risk assessment are only there to scare people with huge accidents that never happen.

WHEN …B) Something has gone wrong (could very well be the same guys of the list above), they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. what a bad luck, gee…
2. I cannot understand how this happened, we had it all under control until then!
3. Well you know, the alarm did not work that well
4. we should do a risk assessment right now.

WHEN …C) Decision are to be made (could very well be the same guys of the lists above), they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. You can do all of the analyses you want, at the end, I will make the decision, following my instinct/my gut feelings, and other body parts or particular garments’ areas: it has never failed me before.
2. I can see pros and cons and my decision will take all of those into account: you know, I have always taken calculated risks
3. Man, when you are an entrepreneur, you know you have to take risks
4. You know, we have the experience to deal with whatever will come up in this project

WHEN ….D) Contemplating project’s fiasco, failure to perform, bankruptcy, they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. What happened is unprecedented, unforeseeable, how could we have….
2. Well, there were so many uncertainties, what a pity…
3. Well we tried with all our best people and invested all that money, …well, you know, sometimes the best intentions….
4. We had done it so many times, others have done it, how come it did not work?

We are sure you can dig out examples you have heard about (or you may have lived as an actor), where these or other similar phrases were used by one or more stakeholders.

For instance the Subprime fiasco and resulting economic turmoil, generated at least the following statements among Bankers, politicians and affiliated professionals:

A1, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3, B4, C1, C2, C3, C4, D1,D2,D3,D4.

You may have noticed that the only one missing is A2 “well, it has happened last year, so we are good for a while”. BEWARE: when the next bubble blows up, A2 will most certainly be in the list.

Are we pessimistic? Please do not get that very wrong impression. All our work, our life is geared towards getting people, corporations, governmental agencies to turn to rational risk and crisis management, to perform risk based decision making, to establish their risk tolerability and enhance their chances of success. Approaches and methods scalable for small to huge businesses and projects do exist and I use them every day for my clients.

Please see the blog written November 11, 2009 in the online version of The Wall Street Journal entitled “Start-Up CEOs Gripe About VCs’ Lack Of Operating Experience” (http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2009/11/11/start-up-ceos-gripe-about-vcs-lack-of-operating-experience/tab/print/ ).

The main point of the article is based on a survey of start–up CEO’s that points to a lack of real world entrepreneurial and operational experience at the board level. Cava was founded on this very premise. Having been a veteran of five previous start-up experiences, I can tell you first hand that the lack of operational talent in the board room is frightening, especially in early stage companies. That is not to say there aren’t smart people in the room or those wanting and willing to help. The problem is if you haven’t woken up at 3am in the morning worried about making payroll that day, or how to get the marketing plan done to drive traffic growth, you cant possibly be all that useful. Being strategic is fine, but what early stage companies typically need most is tactical help. Be there to help scrub the pipeline. Be able to help create an HR plan that makes use of limited resources. Know what suppliers might be consolidated, negotiated with or added. Open a few doors at prospective clients that could change the game on the quarterly plan. These are all real issues and ones that you must have dealt with regularly to add value. If you make your entrepreneurs successful, you will be successful. Influence where you can. Be willing to be operational, even if it means sitting on fewer boards and getting more tactical with each.

Jim Caparro, a member of the Cava Network, puts it this way:

There is an artful balancing act between an entrepreneur executing on his vision and building a successful business, and the interests and motivations of a funding sponsor. Having experienced it firsthand, I totally appreciate the challenge.

These inherent conflicts need not be overwhelming to either side. It’s all about aligning interests and expectations within realistic timelines for both sides. Then the “art” is managing the process and relationship in a way that the environment created seems supportive and encouraging, yet demanding of results. Build a strong and progressive culture that motivates leaders. Many say it, few execute it.

Good luck investing out there. The opportunities are exciting, lets make them successful.

2102600  คณิตศาสตร์ออปเพอเรชันแนล   Operational Mathematics

ทบทวนการแปลงลาปลาซ การประยุกต์การแปลงลาปลาซ ฟูริเยร์อินทักรัลและการแปลงฟูริเยร์ การประยุกต์การแปลงฟูริเยร์ ในระบบเชิงเส้น ทฤษฎีสื่อสารและปัญหาขอบเขต การแปลงแบบแซด และการประยุกต์ในสมการเชิงอนุพันธ์และระบบสุ่มตัวอย่างข้อมูล การแปลงของอินทิกรัลชนิดพิเศษ

(A review of the Laplace transformation, applications of Laplace transforms, fourier integrals and fourier transforms to linear systems, communication theory, and boundary-value problems; the Z-transform and its applications to difference equation and sampled-data systems; some special types of integral transforms.)

(2102600 จุฬาลงกรณ์มหาวิทยาลัย)

Se intampla ca firma sa aiba azi mai putini angajati decat acum 6, 9 sau 12 luni? Se intampla ca seful vostru sa va ceara sa lucrati la inca un proiect pe langa cele pe care le aveti de facut in mod curent si care va ocupa tot timpul? Sau mai mult, sa va ceara sa lasati orice activitate si sa va ocupati de sarcina noua data?

Ce faceti in acest caz?

Ramaneti sa lucrati peste program? S-ar putea ca cei in masura sa nu observe, voit sau nu, efortul personal. Faceti eforturi mai mari ca sa rezolvati toate problemele in timpul orelor de lucru? S-ar putea sa nu mai fiti la fel de eficienti si sa sufere toate activitatile, nu doar una. Ii spuneti “nu” sefului? S-ar putea sa va riscati viitorul in firma fiind luati in vizor pentru insubordonare, lipsa spiritului de echipa sau sa vi se inventeze sau insceneze cine stie ce grozavii..

Inainte de toate incercati sa gasiti motivatia cererii. E posibil ca sefului vostru sa i se fi cerut sau sa i se fi impus de catre managerul de pe nivelul superior. Cazul cel mai fericit in care el are responsabilitatea iar voi resursele. Este bine sa aflati termenul real de predare a rezultatelor, sa ii solicitati ajutorul in sensul alocarii de resurse suplimentare (colegi care sa va ajute, orele suplimentare sa fie platite, o prelungire a termenului), sa obtineti beneficii imediate (resurse suplimentare pentru proiectele voastre, termene prelungite, etc) sau sa obtineti garantia, cel mai probabil nu mai mult decat verbala, ca la un moment ulterior efortul vostru va fi considerat si rasplatit.

E posibil ca cererea sa vina in urma unei schimbari de strategie la nivelul organizatiei, mai ales in timp de criza cand firmele obisnuiesc sa evalueze rezultatele cu o periodicitate mai mare si sa ajusteze planul de afaceri si bugetul mai des decat normal. In acest caz evaluati impreuna proiectele la care lucrati si vedeti care din ele mai sunt valide si operationale in noile conditii. Ar fi pacat sa irositi timp si efort pentru proiecte sau activitati care nu mai sunt necesare dar despre care, din varii motive, nu ati fost informati la timp.

In fine, e posibil ca solicitarea sa va vizeze direct, fie ca o testare a limitelor stresului, disponibilitatii, efortului; fie ca o modalitate de a va constrange sa plecati; fie ca o recunoastere a valorii si increderii cu care ati fost investit. Din nou, trebuie sa aflati motivatia cererii ca sa va pregatiti pentru ce urmeaza: evaluare, despartire, promovare, etc.

Bafta!

Brameld, Theodore.  (2008).  The use of explosive ideas in education:  Culture, class, and evolution.  New York:  The New Press.

Metacultural assumptions of culture

“We call the assumptions or presuppositions of culture metacultural because they lie, strictly speaking, beyond or above or beneath an exclusively scientific description.  and since philosophy is itself sometimes defined as the critical study of assumptions, let us for present purposes call the philosophy of culture a metacultural discipline.”  (p. 45)

The reality of cultural order

“One of the most interesting contributions to the study of culture is Alfred L. Kroeber’s concept of the superorganic. . . . Culture, however, is a level above that of the merely organic.  It has emerged from the organic, to be sure, but, like other emergent levels of nature that have evolved from lower levels, culture has acquired its own distinctive features that are explicable in their own scientific terms.”  (p. 47)

Leslie White in The Science of Culture, explains that “culture causes culture, as it were.  Thus, the order of culture is subject to its own laws, just as the order of the biological level of nature is subject to its own laws. . . . These laws are located most centrally in the patterns [for instance, patterns of language, patterns of custom] of culture.”  (p. 47)

“The metacultural assumption implicit in this viewpoint of cultural order may be associated with a cluster of philosophic beliefs that we shall characterize as belonging to ontological realism. . . . Thus, culture too is an objective reality, just as are other levels of nature.”  (p. 47)

“Some ontological realists have been called historical materialists because they hold not only that culture has an objective reality which generates itself but that this occurs according to historical laws which are explicable in terms of the utilization of material energy in increasing complex ways.  That is, the spatiotemporal order of culture is to be viewed most fundamentally according to ways people channel the energies of nature in order to produce economic goods.”  (p. 48)

“A related but far from identical view of reality of culture . . . is called by philosophers objective idealism. . . . it is perhaps enough to recall that this theory of reality assumes that, although reality is governed by its own objective laws of stability and change, the ’stuff’ of reality is not ‘material’ but rather ’spiritual’ in character.”  (p. 48)

“Is it possible for one to hold a kind of superorganic view of culture and yet to be an idealist in one’s metacultural assumptions?  We think that it is.  One such proponent is the philosophically minded sociologist Pitirim Sorokin. . . . Sorokin tries to establish the basic laws of the history of culture which, despite their complexity, follow in a certain sequence, one upon the other, and are primarily characterized by the way human beings think and feel and then behave according to their thinking and feeling.  Culture has an objective reality, but this reality is spiritual in its innermost nature.”  (p. 49)

“The superorganic approach to cultural order is congenial to both the essentialist and perennialist orientations.”  (p. 51)

“Our chief conclusion is that . . . essentialism provides powerful theoretical support for the common view that education’s primary role is to induct each generation into the objective order of culture — an order that has already emerged in nature and is now waiting to be perceived and transmitted according to its own inherent laws.”  (p. 52)

“The operational approach to culture, on the other hand, has close affinity to the progressivist and reconstructionist views of education. . . . progressivists hold an operational theory of culture in the respect that they believe its members should learn how to interpret the meaning of various patterns of culture, not so much for the purpose of perpetuating them — although this role is also a necessary one — but, most importantly, for the purpose of modifying them through such operations.”  (p. 52)

The Balangero asbestos open pit mine, located 35km N-W of Torino (Torino), was the largest operation of this kind in Western Europe. The open pit was cut into the ridge of an elongated hill. The mill was located on one side of the hill and the dumps on the other.
Dry tailings were lifted by a conveyor belt from the mill, located at the foot of the hill to a location near the ridge. From there they were conveyed through a tunnel to the opposite side of the hill, and then dumped over a natural slope with an approximate angle of 25 degrees from the altitude of about 830 m a.s.l. to the bottom of the valley at 580 m a.s.l.

As the dumping proceeded, a total surface of about 250.000 m2 was progressively covered with tailings thicknesses going from a few meters to an estimated maximum of 60m–80m, resulting in an estimated 60Mm3 dry asbestos tailings dump. This dump, as well as all the production facilities, was abandoned when the mining company abruptly stopped its activities in the early ‘80s for economic reasons.

Restoration/Rehabilitation Program

In 1992 a public company formed by the Province of Torino, the Mountain Community of the Lanzo valleys, neighboring communities and other public stakeholders was mandated by the regional government of Piedmont to organize an international design competition in compliance with regional bylaws. The goals of the competition were to select the best possible alternative to increase the stability of the slopes (oversteepened, critically eroded and prone to mudflows); reduce the dispersion of fibers (long term hazard to the neighboring population); re-vegetate the slopes for aesthetic and environmental reasons.

Risk Based Decision Making (CDA/ESM) was consistently used by the design team who won the bid as shown in the Presentation. The project is now completed.

The Environmental Restoration Goals

a) Achieve a sufficient stability of the slopes. Gravity and water are the main combined external agents posing a threat to the stability of the over-steepened slopes of the dump. Thus it was necessary to act against gravity to enhance the stability of the slope and against water to eliminate surface erosion, gullies formation and increase of saturation triggering frequent mudflows along the slope.

b) Minimize the dispersion of asbestos fibers in the area of the mine and surrounding towns during the restoration works and in the long term.

c) Re-vegetation of the area which is located in a densely inhabited area at the Alps foothills. As the dump material is highly sterile and generally too steep to retain humus, a special program of tree and shrubs planting was designed including the plantation of 45’000 shrubs and trees: their root system was treated with special fungi that are helping the rooting/vegetation process in the sterile slope. A general hydro-seeding of the full area is undertaken step by step, operating remotely, from a helicopter, again to reduce disturbance to the steep slope.

Hauling

One of the major challenges faced by this project was related to the large amount of material to be excavated and disposed of within the mine area in order to unload the over steepened head of the dump slope. Between the top and the bottom of the slopes 4.5 km of dirt track were present. The preliminary design demanded for the removal of about 280.000m3 of residues (mainly sand and gravel) with mixed random asbestos fibers.

The use of trucks was quickly discarded due to the environmental risks (Pollution from exhaust fumes and fiber dispersion from the excavated material) and the need to upgrade the tracks to roads. A far better ESM was obtained with the alternative of installing a temporary aerial tramway. This device was designed with a single span of 960 m between the two terminal stations (Criteria: Meeting expected performances; Criteria: Avoiding hazards (settlements, instability of intermediary piers)).

The cable car was removed at the end of the earth movement works . The excavated material is wetted at excavation time and remains wet during the full trip from the source to the final resting position to reduce fiber dispersion. The process proved to be very efficient and only a couple of times, with very strong winds, the dust monitoring instrumentations displayed critical concentrations of aero-dispersed fibers in the surrounding area environment. The aerial tramway produced electricity which was sold to the grid (Criteria: Sustainability).
Slope Stabilization Procedures

The selected slope stabilization procedure received a high ESM based on high probabilities and low costs (of failure to meet the criteria) for various Criteria. The procedure can be summarized as follows:

Unload of the upper part of the slope by digging three big berms and by storing the excavated material at the bottom of the slope on an artificial earth fill 8 m high using the cable car. The engineered fill is geared towards protecting from possible residual mudflows originated in the steeper eastern part of the slope (up to 42°) the lower part of the slope, the Fandaglia creek etc.

Cut a series of 8 “path-ways”, i.e. small berms 2.5 m wide, along the slope at regular height intervals. The “pathways” were designed to minimize the volume of material to be evacuated. The “pathways” are reinforced with small palisades built with wood logs (20 cm diameter on the average) increasing the use of natural materials and reducing the need for concrete and steel. The downhill side palisades are totally covered by earth, whereas the uphill palisade remains visible. It is complemented by a geogrid and densely planted to obtain, once vegetation will be mature, a “green retaining structure”.

Build whenever deemed necessary composite wood-earth structures to retain the steepest parts of the slope, or create necessary platforms.

Runoff Control

From the hydraulic/water control point of view, surface erosion created deep (up to 3 m) gullies on the slope in the past. The remedial measures undertaken are the following:

General control of all the surface water falling on the area in form of rain or snow via a net of small wooden channels (on the average 50 to 100 cm wide). These channels collect surface runoff on the slope thanks to the access created via the top berms and intermediate “pathways”. The small dimensions of the channels have been designed to limit the use of heavy equipment on the slope and the need for large excavations for their construction.
The collecting system is relayed by secondary segments of channels located running on top of the berms and on the “pathways”.
Thus the collected runoff is concentrated into 4 main channels located on the slope along the steepest gradient: these channels – called “water chutes” – are built with wood logs and stones.
The 4 “water chutes” finally converge into a unique main canal – built again just with logs and stones – that allows the water to reach the Fandaglia creek at the foot of the slope. Before the final exit to the external environment the collected runoff water flows through a decant basin where the fine material and the fibers can be retained.

Finally, subhorizontal drains are drilled on the slope to control underground water.
Conclusions

Comparative Risk Based Decision Making (CDA/ESM) was used at each and every step of the Balangero’s environmental restoration bid to guide the selection among possible design alternatives. As a result, the project features several interesting solutions related to environmental management, like for example the use of an aerial tramway that allows the reduction of fossil fuel use, dusts, and even produces energy sold to the regional utility company.

“Information, the first principle of warfare. Know thine enemy, but first you must know yourself.” Was that Sun Tzu? A later strategist? Who cares really, it is fundamental knowledge, and GWB blew it. The other day I started reading a rather long article. One that should be required reading for every Officer and NCO in our entire Armed Forces as well as the Commander in Chief.

In war, it is, and has been for some time a well understood tactic that winning the brain game can ensure a victory. Sometimes even without bloodshed, or minimized actual violence. Destroy the enemy’s will to fight; demoralize him, make him believe in his heart and soul that he cannot be victorious. Target any leaders that will spring up among them, and destroy them, utterly. To drive the point home. Let them hear the lamentations of not only their women, as Conan would say, but of their fellow warriors as well. Make them believe that even their God has forsaken them… Victory will be assured.

We, as in the allied forces were about to make history. The Taliban were on the ropes and a real win, by outsiders, had never before been done in Afghanistan.

But then, we took our eye off the target. It was as if we were at a Trap Shoot and shifted from singles to doubles without taking out the first clay first…

Doubt my words? Read this, in it’s entirety. Yes, it is a long read. Nothing of true value is ever easy though. This is however invaluable , if you are to understand the psychology of warfare. Of victory, and war-fighting.

The Taliban in their own words

Most “change” strategies are dated and doomed to fail, but employers can build a foundation for change success with five “enabling assumptions”, according to management consultant Peter Fuda.

“More than 70 per cent of all change efforts fail, and failed change is the number one reason why leaders get fired,” says The Alignment Partnership founder in his paper, Why Change Efforts Fail.

Most of today’s change theories are built on the “flawed assumption” that change can be managed, he says, but “‘change management’ is an oxymoron”.

“The notion that change can be… managed is rooted in the industrial-age metaphor of the ‘organisation as machine’,” Fuda says.

“In this paradigm, the organisation can be pulled apart and put back together at will and with no collateral damage; people respond only to the extrinsic motivations of ‘carrot and stick’; and the leader is responsible for every role – from visionary to cheerleader.”

But when leaders adopt this role, he says, employees are “doomed to passive dependence”.

“The irony is that as leaders, we desire innovation, responsiveness and adaptability to compete in the modern business environment, while we simultaneously foster a culture of dependence, approval and compliance.”

Other “flawed assumptions” thwarting change efforts, he says, include:

* “we are objective” – assuming we’re objective while acting subjectively. “Change efforts often fail or are rendered unsustainable because crucial pieces of information and intricate interrelationships are overlooked or ignored by leaders who are blinkered by [their] backgrounds, education, preferences and beliefs”;

* “change can be achieved in X number of steps” - establishing a formula to navigate a “change event” and restore stability. “Stability is a distant memory and change is no longer an event – it is the new constant”;

* “we have a neutral starting point for change” - assuming that because our intentions are good, employees and other stakeholders will naturally trust and follow us. “But change efforts never take place in a vacuum. There is always an environmental, organisational and personal context to be considered. After endless restructuring, reengineering, downsizing, mergers and acquisitions, many people are scarred, tired, cynical, and focused on self protection”; and

* “change is the goal” - speaking about change as an end in itself. “Change is a verb; it is a process by which to achieve goals and aspirations. The stakeholders of our organisations do not want change… but rather the realisation of the statements of mission, vision and values that appear prominently in corporate boardrooms and on company websites.”

Change-enabling assumptions
In many organisations “the terms ‘change’ and ‘failure’ have become almost synonymous”, Fuda says.

“When a leader talks about ‘change’… what people typically hear is pain, loss, extra effort, increased risk and greater uncertainty.”

Fuda suggests five “enabling assumptions” to counter the “flawed assumptions” which, he says, have underpinned change efforts for the last 20 years.

The enabling assumptions are:

1. “Uncertainty is our friend” – accepting turbulence, uncertainty and disorder as natural characteristics of modern business. “In this mindset, time that was once spent developing the perfect project plan is invested in understanding the environmental context and developing the critical relationships required for sustainable change to occur. Leaders are more interested in purposeful forward movement than reporting on the plan [and] they do not let perfect get in the way of better”;

2. “One part confidence, two parts humility, three parts sense of humour” - approaching and communicating change with a humble disposition. “Even the most successful [change] efforts are far more akin to the world of Maxwell Smart than James Bond. The human capacity to laugh at ourselves and make light of dire circumstances are critical preconditions for successful change. This capacity allows us to retain perspective, let off steam, develop resilience and bounce back from the inevitable set-backs. Self-effacing leaders build trust, ‘followership’ and encourage authentic dialogue”;

3. “Context before content” – understanding the strengths and aspirations of the business and stakeholders before articulating a new agenda. “Before launching off on the new crusade… it is critical to understand the injuries people may carry from previous crusades. Capturing the hearts and minds of intelligent, battle-weary people requires meaningful engagement in the issues and challenges affecting them”;

4. “Trust changes everything” – delivering on promises to build enduring trust. “The fastest way to build trust is to extend more trust than is warranted. In a high-trust environment, leaders will be given the benefit of the doubt and will be able to course-correct and move forward”; and

5. “The ‘goal’ is the goal” – forgetting about change. “Not only is change not the goal, but change is not even the process. The process by which we reach our aspirations is alignment. When a leadership team is clearly in alignment, employees in the organisation have confidence that the goals are reachable. Compared to change, alignment is a strong, positive and unemotional concept.”

The value stream management method is a strategic and operational approach designed to help a company or complete supply chain achieve a lean status. It has its antecedents grounded in the Value Stream Mapping approach but seeks to overcome some of the problems and drawbacks of this earlier approach. Value Stream Management also incorporates various education and policy deployment stages to make it a far better basis for ongoing company or supply chain development. The new approach can be divided into individual and consecutive stages.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir - Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, Lectures, Line of Sight

When we wrote our Book we also inserted a Glossary.
Please refer to it if you want to make sure about the meaning of any term you will find in this blog and Risk and Crisis Management information sources.

The definitions in the Glossary are “generally accepted”, and compliant with most national/international codes.

As of 1 July 2009, employers and employees may be subject to a new national workplace relations system. If you are an employer in the federal system, it’s important for you to be aware of and comply with the Fair Work Act 2009.

Fair Work Australia
The Fair Work Act 2009 provides for the establishment of Fair Work Australia. Along with the Office of the Fair Work Ombudsman, Fair Work Australia will replace the seven existing workplace relations agencies and oversee the new national workplace relations system.
Fair Work Australia will take on a number of powers previously held by other workplace relations agencies including:

* varying awards
* making orders on matters such as minimum wage, good faith bargaining and industrial action
* approving agreements
* determining unfair dismissal claims.

Minimum employment conditions
From 1 January 2010, there will be changes to minimum employment conditions. A new set of awards are being introduced to streamline and simplify thousands of industry and occupation based awards. Ten National Employment Standards will also be established, covering the following essential employment conditions:

* maximum weekly hours of work
* the right to request flexible working arrangements
* parental leave and related entitlements
* annual leave
* personal/carer’s leave and compassionate leave
* community service leave
* long service leave
* public holidays
* notice of termination and redundancy pay
* provision of a Fair Work Information Statement, which will detail the rights and entitlements of employees under the new system and how to seek advice and assistance.

Collective bargaining
Under the new system, there will be no need for formal notification before an employer and their employees commence bargaining. In most cases the parties can simply agree to negotiations in order to create an enterprise agreement.
For further information on the new workplace relations system and how it may affect you, visit the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations website.

When the “right to request flexibility” kicks off with the other National Employment Standards, more than four in every five employers are under-prepared and at risk of failing to comply with the new rules, a survey reveals.

The survey of more than 500 HR, diversity and law practitioners, conducted by Aequus partners and CCH Australia, found that more than 80 per cent believe employees and managers within their organisations have little or no knowledge of how to request flexibility or respond to applications.

“This apparent low level of existing knowledge suggests that both employees and managers are likely to experience difficulties when making or processing requests… and managers are likely to be non-compliant, thus exposing their organisations to legal risks and reputational damage,” the survey report says.

“Unless employers act now, confusion will abound on 1 January 2010, non-compliance will be a certainty and access to flexibility for eligible employees will be thwarted.”

The survey also reveals that:
* only 16 per cent of practitioners believe that managers have a medium to high knowledge of the right-to-request rules’ eligibility criteria, processes for requests and responses, timeframes and non-compliance consequences;
* less than half believe management has the capacity to adapt to the new rules;
* only nine per cent think the current implementation of flexible work practices is “highly effective”,
* more than a quarter believe current practices aren’t effective at all;
* two-thirds feel flexibility is implemented inconsistently across the organisation; and
* only 17 per cent believe there are processes in place to monitor flexibility requests.

Employers must do more than “tweak”
According to section 65(1) of the Fair Work Act, permanent or long-term casual employees with children either under school age or under 18 with a disability will have the right to request a “change in working arrangements” to enable them to provide their kids with care.

However, with right-to-request awareness so low, the report says, many “ineligible” employees are likely to make a request, unnecessarily clogging processes and increasing HR’s workload. “Without the implementation of new and streamlined processes,” it says, “this workload will become overwhelming.” But employers must do more than “tweak” their existing expectations and processes, the report says. They should begin by “topping up” the level of knowledge of HR practitioners, who “will play a critical role in providing expert advice to their managers and employees”.

While some 66 per cent of HR personnel rate their right-to-request knowledge as medium or high, it says, about half are uncertain of the consequences of non-compliance.
Employers should also:
* develop guidelines on the right to request for both managers and workers;
* roll-out training programs for managers on dealing with requests and determining “reasonable business grounds”; and
* update in-house policies relating to flexible arrangements.

“Once basic processes, guidelines and training have been implemented by HR to address the [right-to-request] start date, a more strategic plan of work, to lift the implementation of flexible work practices from muddling along to a gold-star rating, is required,” the report says.

“This might include training initiatives to address issues of managerial confidence and skills, as well as evaluation and monitoring to check consistency of implementation.” But “the clock has started ticking”, the report says, adding that the three-month period before the new rules take effect includes the summer holidays – “traditionally a difficult time to roll-out training”. “Set against a background in which employers are coming to terms with other major changes introduced by the Fair Work Act on 1 July 2009, and dealing with the global financial crisis, the [right-to-request] Standard is at risk of being overlooked,” it says.

“This is of real concern given that the Standard provides eligible employees with significant entitlements, and imposes strict process and decision-making obligations on employers.”

Reference

Taha, Hamdy A. Operations Research : An Introduction. 2007. 8^th Ed. Pearson Prentice Hall, New Jersey.

IT&B Text Book

Supranto, Johannes. Riset Operasi untuk Pengambilan Keputusan. 1988. 1th Ed. Penerbit : UI – Press, Jakarta.

SYLLABUS (GBPP = GARIS BESAR PEDOMAN PENGAJARAN)

STIE IT&B CAMPUS

Program Study                                  : Management

Subject                                                 : Operations Research

Subject Code                                     :

Semester                                            : VII

Credit                                                   : 3

Time Allocation                                                :  120 Minutes

Competency Standard                  : Able to understand and explain the fundamental of Operations research and can apply it towards business world with all aspects concerning on it.

Basic Competency           :

1. Student is able to explain the function and the characteristic of operations research.
2. Student is able to explain the function and the ability of Linear Programme in operation research.
3. Student is able to explain the function of simplex models and implement it in operational problems.
4. Student is able to solve about duality problems in operations research.
5. Student is able to solve about transportation problems in operational using operations research’s transportation models.
6. Student is able to explain and understand about networks models.
7. Student is able to solve queuing line’s problem using queuing line methods in operations research and find an optimum solutions.
8. Student is able to solve Inventory’s problem using Inventory methods in operations research and find an optimum solutions.

GRADES

• ASSIGNMENT           = 20%
• ATTENDANCE          = 10%
• MID TEST                   = 30%
• FINAL TEST               = 40%

GRADING SYSTEM

• A = 85
• B = 75 – 84.9
• C = 60 – 74.9
• D = 55 – 59.9
• F = <55

Traditionally there is a disconnect between Risk Assessments and the need of corporate Risk Managers to properly prioritize risks, define possible alternatives for mitigation, and/or define reasonable insurance programs.

To discuss the statement above let’s take a fictional mining company, Acme Corp. (AC) and build a case study scenario.

AC has a problem: their “high level” risk assessment and/or Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) system states that scenario #13, let’s suppose “Explosion at the Tank Farm”, is “pink”, or “Oh my God”, or some other fancier verbalization used to qualify the criticality of the scenario in qualitative terms. Another alternative to this scenario would be that the risk rating is “32” in a scale going from “nil to 42” based on some obscure index definition.

Somebody at AC, most likely their Risk Manager, has traditionally purchased a 100M$ coverage for that “pink risk”, but lately the premium has hiked up considerably, as a result of insurers’ general trend to consider mining companies simply “too risky”. At the point and time of this story the traditional AC’s insurer is actually denying renewal of the contract, refusing coverage.

Although this fictional example is a dramatization, it is not very far off serious situations that can actually be solved by having proper approaches to ERM, Risk Assessments and Corporate tolerability to risks. The hike in insurance premium, or the denial of coverage represent indeed a paradigm shift in the mining world, which requires proven and solid tools.

Specific sets of tools helping corporations to find a way in the new world of overpriced, if not impossible, insurances do exist. Read further in this BLOG or Contact us.

First of all the corporation’s main exposures have to be properly prioritized, and compared to the company’s own tolerability criteria. In a second phase the mitigative alternatives have to be selected, and compared.

Oftentimes it will appear that many risks covered by large insurance contracts are actually tolerable, which could lead to reducing them, or even suppressing them if a very aggressive risk management approach is selected by the company.

A well calibrated study will most likely also show that only a very small group of the perceived main exposures stand way above the rest: these are obviously the ones that require top attention, but not necessarily larger insurance coverage: there are many ways to deal with risks by looking at “out of the box” solutions.

As an example, in a recent actual study for a large mining company, a detailed study on their world-wide multi-modal transportation system concluded that the insurance coverage could be dramatically reduced provided alternative solutions are pre-negotiated and properly prioritized. A tool that allows re-evaluation of the situation when commodity prices and other key financial parameters vary was produced.

Complex mathematics and impervious literature might be the root cause of many professionals’ impression that quantitative risk assessment and the resulting risk-based decision making are to be used and constitute the exclusive domain of high-stake decision-makers.

“Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk & Crisis Management” is the title of the 2007 Book published by Riskope to guide corporate managers to making better decisions, steer their projects across an ocean of uncertainties and make winning moves.

Improving Sustainability through Reasonable Risk and Crisis Management by Riskope

The book has been written for key personnel and mid-management in diverse arenas in need for transparent and efficient ways of evaluating risks and crises, comparing business alternatives or making and justifying sound and sustainable management decisions.

Readers of the book have appreciated the effort and the fresh and innovative look on this apparently impervious discipline.

Through the book, which features concrete, real life, examples, readers learn how risk assessments are put together (designed); to select the best suited management options; to evaluate and prepare for crises; to define acceptable and tolerable risks; to make better, sustainable and well documented decisions.

Riskope’s approach is effective, pragmatic and demystifies risk management. Finally a democratic easy to understand manual to steer you business toward success and long term sustainability.

After having read this book your outlook on the world will be much different.

By perusing the Riskope’s website (Contact Page) it is possible to place an order for the book.

Employers should develop workplace surveillance policies to avoid the risk of breaching privacy legislation and copping heavy fines – whether they intend to monitor staff or not, according to Harmers Workplace Lawyers senior associate, Bronwyn Maynard.

“I recommend that all employers develop a surveillance policy,” Maynard told HR Daily, “because they often don’t realise at what point they will need to undertake surveillance.”

And businesses need to be especially cautious, Maynard says, with the Federal Government looking to legislate on the Australian Law Reform Commission’s (ALRC’s) recommendations on privacy laws later this year, and some of the states expected to increase the scope of fines.

In New South Wales, for instance, the maximum penalty imposed on an organisation for breaching the State Workplace Surveillance Act 2005 could increase from $5,500 in total to $5,500 per individual breach per individual employee, with company directors also at risk of being prosecuted, regardless of their personal involvement in specific surveillance breaches, Maynard says.

The Commonwealth Fair Work legislation, she says, is set to adopt “technology-neutral, but technology-aware” principles to ensure that new communication technologies – such as wireless devices that are not specifically referred to in legislation – cannot legitimately be used to secretly monitor workers.

“There should be some interesting and significant changes made to privacy and surveillance legislation based on the ALRC report,” Maynard says. “Employers should be on the lookout for these changes to understand what they mean for their businesses.”

Developing an in-house surveillance policy

Employers that suspect staff members of criminal activity can apply to a magistrate for permission to monitor employees covertly, Maynard says.

For the most part, however, employers must implement a surveillance policy and raise awareness of the guidelines within the workplace: to avoid being prosecuted and penalised for breaching privacy laws; and to reduce the risk that evidence of an employee’s “wrongdoing” is deemed inadmissible in a court of law. “While employers have a legitimate interest in ensuring that their employees are acting appropriately and not misusing company resources, any monitoring of their employees must be conducted in the appropriate manner,” Maynard says.  “I am constantly surprised at how many businesses choose to monitor their employees’ actions without having the necessary workplace surveillance and privacy guidelines in place.”

Employers should have a written policy clearly stating that employees may be monitored at work, and covering: the surveillance type, including cameras, computer checks and GPS or other tracking devices (on company vehicles).  A notice must be clearly visible on vehicles carrying a GPS device; the surveillance method, such as inbox/outbox checks, the examination of internet-use logs or the installation and location of cameras.

Cameras or camera cases should be clearly visible with prominent signs posted in monitored areas; the people conducting the surveillance, whether IT staff, HR personnel or line managers; the time period of the monitoring, whether continuous or intermittent for the course of each shift, and whether for a limited period or ongoing; and the email and internet websites that will be blocked or restricted.

A “prevented delivery notice” should be provided to an employee each time an email, aside from spam, is blocked. The policy must also be brought to the attention of employees by:

distributing a copy of the policy to each employee at least 14 days before surveillance commences; explaining the policy and the consequences of failing to comply with it through induction and training courses or one-on-one discussions; and reminding them regularly via “all staff” emails or notice boards.

Employers that refrain from indiscriminately slashing staff numbers and adhere to the 10 “DOs and DON’Ts” of the redundancy process will be “poised to enjoy a competitive advantage” as the economy rebounds, according to the authors of a white paper from the Human Capital Institute and Taleo.

“Every recession of the past has been followed by a recovery,” say Dr Katherine Jones and Allan Schweyer in Recessionary Management, a paper based on a survey of more than 300 leading global corporate executives. “It is not a matter of if, but when.

“HR and talent management leaders must make the right decisions today to aid their organisations in surviving this [downturn] and to position them for the inevitable recovery.”

Forward-looking employers, they say, have a vision of what their company will look like post-crisis, and are developing plans accordingly. They are evaluating their leadership team and identifying future leaders – who cope well in difficult times – and are looking to recruit from the new glut of talent available on the market.

Highly-skilled performers are more accessible today than they have been in many years, Jones and Schweyer say, and employers should hire “selectively” – even while downsizing – to bolster their organisation’s capacity to outlast the downturn and to prepare them to take on new business as the economy swings.

“For some organisations there may never be a better time to hire.”

Still, many employers have little choice at the moment but to reduce their workforce, the authors note, and are at risk of damaging their company’s brand and crippling their capacity to respond to an upturn if downsizing is undertaken hastily.

“The challenge,” they say, “is to manage morale and the brand while simultaneously letting some of the team go.”

Based on the survey, Jones and Schweyer identify 10 “DOs and DON’Ts” for employers forced to downsize.

The DOs:

1. Identify the roles that are core to your business success. Evaluate the contribution of each role to the company’s profit, as opposed to the individual employee in each role, and look to eliminate a less critical business unit, rather than cutting a set proportion of staff across the board.

2. Reduce or eliminate headcount in non-core sectors, irrespective of individual achievement, but allow for “internal mobility” for high performers.

3. Identify competencies needed to execute goals. Retain and engage top performers within core functions, and think carefully about who adds value and who is hard to replace.

4. Utilise HR and talent-management technology, including scenario-based workforce planning.

5. Protect your bottom line and brand. Remember that the message an employer sends during lay-offs “affects the brand and may stick to the organisation for a long time”.

6. Ensure that lay-offs are aligned with business strategy, but treat employees with fairness and efficiency, and beware of internet scrutiny.

7. Communicate constantly. Tell employees what you know when you know it. Provide them with accurate information and the “dignity they deserve”.

8. Pay attention to the survivors. “Survivors” often feel guilty that they have been retained – perhaps at the expense of colleagues – or are “paralysed” by fear that they are next to go. Rebuild their confidence by informing them that they are vital to the company’s future.

“Knowing why they survived is paramount in persuading them to stay engaged.”

The DON’Ts:

1. Don’t cut with a hatchet – use a scalpel. “Organisations that downsize in haste or indiscriminately… are very likely to harm their brands as well as their capacity to respond to an economic upturn.”

2. Avoid “death by a thousand cuts”. Plan carefully and try to make downsizing a one-time event, rather than a series of “painful cuts”, and then communicate that the cuts are over and that remaining employees are secure.

3. Avoid lay-offs before the weekend or holidays. “Best practices reveal that a lay-off should occur early in the week – never on Friday, when the employee has a weekend to brood, perhaps alone.”

4. Don’t shoot from the hip. Hasty and poorly executed lay-offs can result in damage to reputation and legal ramifications.

5. Don’t keep employees guessing. Create a corporate policy on downsizing and provide support to the newly unemployed.