“Nothing changes…on New Year’s Day.”–Bono

Check out Bono’s mullet from the Dortmund concert in 1984. That thing is a piece of work. The 80’s were a good decade because you could sport a mullet and leather pants and you were a rock star. Bono changed with the times, and that turned out well.

As for you, we’ve reached the midway point in the bowl season. When you wake up on New Year’s Day, you’re going to be way up, way down or close to even in your college picks. Should this be a time to deviate from the system? I’m the wrong person to ask. Just keep riding the underdogs and the SEC. You’ll be ok. If you are just now checking out the bowl picks, scroll down for Part I, Part II and Part III.

Also–there is a surprise extra bowl that I wasn’t aware of. The good folks at EagleBank (no space please) were waiting on the outcome of the Army/Navy game to decide if they were going to extend an invite to a crappy Army team or a crappy UCLA team. Guess who won? America won.

EagleBank Bowl–UCLA vs. Temple (Dec. 29) Line: UCLA-4

Don’t you like businesses (banks especially) that mix it up with the no space/capitalization branding technique? Alabama might have started this trend with AmSouth. We also had SouthTrust. Now we have ServisFirst (Which is a misspelling/no space/capitalization hat trick). My freelancing brand name is 25media. You can tell I’m serious because there is no space between the random numeral I chose for the name (25) and the business I’m in (media). That is six syllables, but if you hustle, you can get it out in five.

Rick Neuheisel is fired up for the EagleBank Bowl

EagleBank claims that their bowl will become “a new national tradition.” What are our other national traditions? And are they anything to be proud of? Most of our national holidays are associated with going to a shopping mall.

Maybe they are right–the UCLA vs. Temple game will be a watershed moment during a 34 game bowl season that serves as a tipping point to our collectively rediscovering a sense of national pride. For gamblers, it will (at long last) be an opportunity to pick against Temple in a bowl game.

(Quick actual gambling note: UCLA’s QB injured his shoulder vs. USC and is questionable for the game. If he can’t play a freshman will start in his place. I’m still taking UCLA).

Reason to pick UCLA: They are playing Temple.

Reason to pick against Temple: They are Temple.

Reason to watch: To cherish your nationhood.

Pick: UCLA

Outback Bowl–Auburn vs. Northwestern (Jan. 1) Line: Auburn-7.5

This game is being played obscenely early, so be sure to shake off the cobwebs and get to a television.

Northwestern has been solid this season. They have some great wins, and have been hot as a firecracker down the stretch. Naturally, pick Auburn in this one.

Reason to pick the Aubs: SEC.

Reason to pick against NW: Big 10.

Reason to watch: You’re awake.

Pick: Aubs

Capital One Bowl–LSU vs. Penn St. (Jan. 1) Line: Penn St. -3

I’m sure I speak for everyone by sending a big “Thank You” to Capital One for their “What’s in your wallet?” ad campaign. There are usually funny Vikings involved. And now you can put photos of your kittens on your credit card. That should help provide a distraction when you’re thinking about the crippling amount of debt you are under, or how much you hate the representatives of Capital One that talked you into increasing your credit limit. And they haven’t even eliminated the space between “Capital” and “One.” What a bunch of assholes.

And to top it off, there is no way to effectively pick this game. No way you can feel good about taking a team coached by Les Miles. Under any circumstances. You’d feel better about Penn St, but they lost to both good teams that they played (they did beat Northwestern, if you are in a charitable mood).

Can you really trust this man?

After rallying to beat Arkansas in overtime, I guess you can make a case that LSU is motivated and possibly excited about the game. Penn St might feel slighted by the BCS snub. And the “always take an SEC underdog regardless of the circumstances” applies. Anyway, please note my ambivalence about this pick.

Reason to pick LSU: You are determined to hate yourself.

Reason to pick Penn St: Nostalgia for Todd Blackledge’s “Taste of the Town” segment.

Reason to watch: Always sunny in Florida, makes you angry that you live in a cold weather town.

Pick: LSU

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl–Florida St vs. West Virginia (Jan. 1) Line: Florida St. -1

I’m vaguely familiar with the “bizhub” which is the product that you’ll see advertised approximately 430 times during this particular game. I thought it was more than a printer, but apparently it’s just a printer. I’m sure there is an angry discussion board on the internet where interns get together to make obscene complaints about the bizhub. I’m sure it’s good reading.

Kudos to the Gator Bowl for passing over teams that haven’t underachieved this season to select Florida State and their octogenarian coach (and Birmingham native) Bobby Bowden. In a related story, they sold all the tickets to the game.

Don't bet against Noel Devine

Here’s how this game breaks down: Florida State has not played well against two types of teams: ones that run the ball well (see, Clemson and Georgia Tech) and teams with athletic quarterbacks that are minor headcases (see Miami). Their defense has been beyond bad. Their offense has been explosive at times, but with Christian Ponder out, look for sputtering to occur. They don’t need sputtering, because, as I just mentioned, their defense is bad. Oh, and did I mention they are breaking in new defensive coaches for the game?

Reason to pick West Virginia: No turmoil, great running back.

Reason to pick FSU: Inspiring performance in tribute for the best of the coaching Bowdens

Reason to watch: Noel Devine might get 300 yards rushing.

Pick: West Virginia

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi–Oregon vs. Ohio St. (Jan. 1) Line: Oregon-3.5

I like that the Rose Bowl took themselves so seriously that they gave Citi second billing as the “presenting” sponsor. Sportswriters and old people are excited because this game features the Big 10 Champion vs. the Pac-10 Champion, without interference from the BCS (which sportswriters and old people also hate). The reason this game is called “the grandaddy of them all” is because it’s likely that your grandfather is the only one who remembers why this game is relevant.

Look, I don’t know what you got for Christmas, but you got a gift here. I was momentarily chafed when I saw that the line was Oregon-35, because I would have had to think about this pick for a while. But the line was Oregon -3.5 which is like God asking the question, “Do you like free money?”

Old people have a fondness for parades.

I could break down all the reasons to pick Oregon in this big, important game. Oregon beat the common opponents and Ohio State lost to them (USC and Purdue). Oregon has a better offense and defense. Jim Tressel hasn’t won a big game since the Maurice Clarett era. Come on, this is easy.

Reason to pick Oregon: Every conceivable reason.

Reason to pick against Ohio St: Every conceivable reason.

Reason to watch: It’s the grandaddy of them all. They have a parade in the morning. It’s an American tradition, like the EagleBank Bowl.

Pick: Oregon

Allstate Sugar Bowl–Florida vs. Cincinnati (Jan. 1) Line: Florida -10.5

What a crappy game. Florida is going to win. You could make a case that thinks Florida will lack motivation, but I have to think that the team is going to rally around the entire nation making fun of Tim Tebow crying on the sidelines of the SEC Championship.

Cincinnati’s best chance to win is to get Mardy Gilyard free in the secondary. Unfortunately, Florida has a shutdown corner in Joe Haden. What else does Cincy have? Not enough. Their defense hasn’t had to tackle an angry Tebow yet either.

And as a bonus, we get those commercials with the two idiots tailgating. Thanks Allstate.

Reason to pick Florida: One of these SEC picks isn’t going to work out, but not this one.

Reason to pick Cincinnati: Their coach quit on them? Not as much talent? Best player is matched up with a future NFL corner? Not a lot to like here.

Timmy Tim Tebow Time...

Reason to watch: It’s Tebow’s last game. Let’s try to remember the good times. Not the times when he was knocked around by Alabama’s defense. Not those times. Don’t think about those times.

Pick: Tebow

That wraps up the New Year’s Day Bowls. A couple of quick picks from the Jan. 2 games before we get to Part v, the finale of the Bowl Pool Extravaganza. It’s been a good ride so far. I’d like to thank the 8 people who’ve taken the trip with me.

International Bowl–South Florida vs. Northern Illinois (Jan. 2) Line: South Fla-4.5

Weird week for Jim Leavitt, one of the players alleged that he choked him. Then the dad of the player came out and called for Leavitt to be fired. Then the dad eased up and said maybe he didn’t choke him. Also, they have to travel from South Florida to Toronto. Not a good holiday season for the Bulls.

Anyway, your choices here are the fifth best team from the MAC or the sixth best team from the Big East. Good luck. Why are they playing this game?

Pick: South Florida

Papajohns.com Bowl–South Carolina vs. UCONN (Jan. 2) Line: South Carolina -4.5

The Magic City is happy to have y0u in town for the Papajohns.com Bowl. Historic Legion Field is the site for all of the exciting action. They used to play important football games there.

This actually might be a good game. I like the Uconn coach, he’s done a great job keeping his team together after the loss of Jasper Howard. The win at Notre Dame was great to watch, and not just because it was Notre Dame losing. I might even go to this game if it’s above 12 degrees.

Pick: South Carolina

Thanks for playing at home, kiddos. Now get back to work. JB

Are you going all out for New Year's?

Remember in your 20’s when New Year’s Eve was an excuse to wear a costume, drink way too much, take taxis all over a strange town and wake up with the worst hangover of the year? I loved everything about New Year’s in my 20’s. These days? I’m going to enjoy some social intercourse with friends and get to bed at a reasonable hour. I’ll probably watch one of these football games.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl–Houston vs. Air Force (Dec. 31) Line: Houston-4

There are no compelling reasons to pick Air Force in this game. The line opened at Houston -7 and has mysteriously dropped. This is probably because Houston is the closest we have come to watching what it would be like if a real team was being controlled by a 13 year old playing a football video game. That 13 year old would throw the ball on every play, pile up ridiculous stats, pay no attention to defense, and then win games by allowing at least 40 seconds on the clock to drive down the field in three plays and win by a touchdown. I watch Sportscenter, and that is how every Houston game works out. Air Force has been in every game (including losses to Utah and TCU) but finally got torched by Max Hall and BYU. I think that happens again.

Keenum will be a hero to nerdy teenagers in next year's college football video games.

And after a slate of pizza chains and tourism destinations as corporate sponsors, nice to see Bell Helicopters and the Armed Forces team up for a truly masculine sponsorship. I’m probably going to do some push ups during halftime of this one.

Reason to pick Houston: Case Keenum will be the best QB in NCAA Football 2010.

Reason to pick Air Force: Refs in the Armed Forces Bowl will defer to our servicemen.

Reason to watch: To embrace the testosterone rush.

Pick: Houston

Brut Sun Bowl–Oklahoma vs. Stanford (Dec. 31) Line: Oklahoma -8

It’s good to see the Brut corporation is still around. Is it still a requirement that every teenager has a stick of Brut deodorant in his gym locker? Growing up in the 1980’s was great, especially when hitting puberty meant that you got an electric razor and a stick of Brut deodorant. Welcome to manhood.

Good luck figuring out Oklahoma. They should win this game by 30 points. But they have lost to every decent team they’ve played this year: BYU, Miami, Texas, Nebraska. And they lost to Texas Tech, who aren’t decent. The only quality win was beating an overrated Oklahoma State team.

Something is wrong with them, and it goes beyond not having Sam Bradford. I’ll take my chances with Stanford. Ordinarily, Bob Stoops would figure out a way to outcoach the opponent and he doesn’t have that luxury in this game. Stanford isn’t good, but if you’re getting 8 points you can feel ok about them.

Are you a Brut man?

Reason to pick Stanford: Toby Gerhart does enough to keep it close.

Reason to pick against Oklahoma: Utter lack of motivation.

Reason to watch: Nostalgia for the musky scent of Brut deodorant.

Pick: Stanford

Texas Bowl–Navy vs. Missouri (Dec. 31) Line: Missouri -6

These new bowl games aren’t even coming up with titles any more. It’s just “The (Corporation) Bowl” or “The (Tourism Board) Bowl.” What happened to local produce, flora or culture determining the name of the game? We don’t even make an effort any more. The New Mexico Bowl could be the “Jalepeno Bowl.” Or the St. Petersburg Bowl could be the “Octogenarian Bowl.” The Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham could be the “Decaying Infrastructure Bowl.”

In fairness, the Texas Bowl actually sounds like a decent bowl game. Unfortunately, these teams aren’t very compelling. Missouri found a way to lose to Nebraska early in the season and kind of hit the skids. Navy lost to Hawaii. Let’s repeat that last sentence. Navy lost to Hawaii.

Reason to pick Missouri: They have not lost to Hawaii.

Reason to pick against Navy: They have lost to Hawaii.

Reason to watch: Your TV is broken and for some reason is stuck on the random channel that is broadcasting this game.

Pick: Mizzou

Insight Bowl: Iowa State vs. Minnesota (Dec. 31) Line Minn -1.5

I have some insight into this game: it’s going to be painful to watch. The Insight Corporation has sponsored this bowl for some time now. No idea what they do. Quick trip to their website (insight.com) reveals that they sell computer hardware and software. At good prices. Hope that helps. Too bad this game is played after Christmas when you could have used that info to save money on your computer gifts.

I’m going to be honest: I don’t know anything about either of these teams. One of the drawbacks of arranging 33 bowl games is that you end up having to offer bids to Iowa State and Minnesota.

I scanned the ESPN preview page and I can’t figure out why Minnesota is favored. Iowa State runs the ball well, otherwise the teams look identical. This is an easy pick really. Take the underdog and take the team that isn’t in the Big 10.

Reason to pick Iowa State: Not in the Big 10.

Reason to pick against Minnesota: They are in the Big 10.

Reason to watch this game: There are no sharp objects in your immediate vicinity that allow you to gouge your eyes out.

Pick: Iowa St.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl–Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (Dec. 31) Line: Va Tech -5

If you’re like me and enjoy some quality self-loathing, watching three hours of advertising with the Chick-Fil-A cows is a brutal way to start 2010. This ad campaign has to be considered a success by every conceivable indicator: awareness, recognition, and the fact that it is despised by the vast majority of the public. Chick-Fil-A is actually rated as the healthiest fast food restaurant, their stores are usually clean, the employees are friendly. The insipid advertising keeps me away. When they parachute into the stadium to attack the hamburger vendor, I get frustrated and angry.

There are really no reasons to include a photo of Layla Kiffin here.

Anyway, I’m not even looking at stats on this game. Virginia Tech is a decent team but they haven’t played anyone in the past month. Monterio Hardesty is the best back they’ve seen since Mark Ingram. And anytime you get an SEC team as an underdog…(I do think that you could make an exception since Kiffin is dealing with a lot of distractions about this hostess recruiting scandal. But I think the team rallies around the coach to play with some level of motivation.)

Reason to pick UT: Monte Kiffin can stop Va Tech’s marginal offense.

Reason to pick Va Tech: They aren’t dealing with NCAA allegations.

Reason to watch: You’ve had a frontal lobotomy and find the cow advertising amusing.

Pick: UT

Hope you have an enjoyable, safe, and disease-free New Year’s Eve and make some powerful resolutions that make 2009 a distant memory. I’m pulling for you. Coming soon: the Jan.1 bowl games. Happy gambling, America.

College Football Playoffs?

We all have our ideas of what the BCS should do… or should NOT do, and I suppose mine is no different. As I blog this, there are five undefeated teams in the national spotlight, stirring up controversy on whether there ought to be a college playoff system.

I am not really FOR the playoffs, but not really against it. Let me explain why.

To me, I think the arguments for playoffs are for those who think that the little guy ought to be held in the same esteem as the big guy. Ok, I see a reason for that, but I go back to something an old school wrestler named Ric Flair once said…

“In order to BE the man, you have to BEAT the man”

If you want to be considered up there with the big boys, then play a schedule like them. This is my biggest argument against teams like Boise State, because they had numerous opportunities to make a more challenging schedule, but opted not to do so because they seemed to want sympathy from those sitting on the fence.

I mean, their schedule was weak as water, after you take out Oregon. And granted, that was a great win…in your house… against a first time head coach… in his first game with the Ducks…nice.

But it still is a very quality win. So why did you schedule Miami of Ohio and UC Davis…what’s that about?

To me, before you start whining about playoffs, make sure that we are talking about legit teams. Now, I know TCU is not in the Championship game, and I actually do feel that they deserve strong consideration, and I am not too happy about them playing Boise State in a repeat bowl…that game proves nothing.

Before we start whining about playoffs, we have to define those parameters. First off, how many should be in it. Right off the bat, I don’t believe in a 16 team system, too many teams that have no business fighting for a National title. When you only play 12 or so games, you don’t need 16 teams claiming rights to the throne.

How about 8 teams? I wonder about that too. Go back in your NCAA history books of college football and see how many teams ranked #8 or 7 had a legit shot at a NCAA title…not very many.

To me, the arguments about who should play in the National Championship usually fall on 2-4 teams. Of course, you may argue with me that maybe Boise State, or maybe Florida has a case, but with Florida losing, I would doubt that, and Boise State just has not played a tough enough schedule to prove that they are an elite team. They are just a great team in a soft conference.

So I think IF you have a playoff, it should be the FOUR best teams in the nation. Think about it, Pittsburgh, LSU, Georgia Tech, USC, Ohio State and teams of that ilk have no real claim to the throne.

Second, if you really want to figure on who is the best, force EVERY conference to determine a true champion. Either by playing every team in their conference or having a conference championship. This eliminates the probability of two undefeated teams out of one conference that may not even play each other….BIG 10 for example.

It is conceivable that the Big 10 could have two undefeated teams in their conference, since they don’t play every opponent, and don’t have a conference championship. I think that needs to be fixed, if that means adding one more team to make it an even 12, fine, either that or find some way to have one true champion.

The Pac-10 does not have a championship game, but they do play everybody, so in essence you still get a true champion. We know the ACC, Big 12 and SEC does have a true championship game, and the Big East has a small conference to in theory they can have a true champion, since they would play everybody in their conference.

But the big question comes with non BCS conferences…mainly the Mountain West and WAC. Remember folks, years ago they used to be one super conference, with 16 teams, before they split up…would have been better if they did not. Had they not, then you would have the Boise States, TCUs, Utahs, and other teams would face each other and we would have a TRUE champion, which also would make a much stronger case for the BCS.

But even then, there are so many stipulations that nobody has thought of. The results of this year dictate what people want to see, what if next year is different? What if next year there is only 2 undefeated teams, why then would there need to be a playoff if we have the two best teams in the nation?

If Alabama and Texas were the only undefeated teams in the nation, we would not be having this conversation about playoffs would we? So the temperature of playoffs is based only on what we last saw. What if each of the BCS teams produces an undefeated team, along with the Mountain West and WAC…what if the Mid American Conference puts out an undefeated team…they did last year with Ball State.

So in theory, you could have 9 undefeated teams, what do you do then? What if Notre Dame (ugh) goes undefeated? What if Conference USA produces an undefeated team. Where does this end?

Now these are extremes, but you see my point.

Do I think there needs to be a better way to decide the national champs, maybe, but the smaller teams can help their case by taking out their cupcakes and putting in real meat. TCU to their credit did this, so I can see their argument, but not quite for Boise State.

So, with Congress getting involved (although I don’t see why), things may change sooner than later…but unfortunately, it all comes down to money…ironic since we are talking about sports and college students…that never changes…

Greed, that is…playoffs…maybe.

This gambling session brought to you by F. Dostoyevsky

“At that point I ought to have gone away, but a strange sensation rose up in me, a sort of defiance of fate, and a desire to challenge it, to put out my tongue at it. I laid down the largest stake allowed-four thousand gulden-and lost it. Then, getting hot, I pulled out all I had left, staked it on the same number, and lost again, after which I walked away from the table as though I were stunned. I could not even grasp what had happened to me.” Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Gambler

Are you ready for Round 2? I know what you’re thinking. Who’s going to win the Little Caesar’s Bowl? I’m glad you asked.

Little Caesar’s Bowl–Ohio vs. Marshall (Dec. 26) Line: Ohio -4

Little Caesar’s is still around?

I have a problem picking 6-6 teams in bowl games. I’d feel a lot better about Marshall if they hadn’t lost by 30 to an ugly UTEP team. Also, Marshall is breaking in a new coach. And it won’t be Matthew McConaughey.

This man is not coaching.

Reason to pick Ohio: Coached by Frank Solich, who is old.

Reason to pick against Marshall: Not coached by Matthew McConaughey.

Reason to watch this game: No reason.

Pick: Ohio

Meineke Car Care Bowl–Pitt vs. UNC (Dec. 26) Line Pitt-2

Is George Foreman still involved with the Meineke corporation? UNC seems to always plays in this game. Which is smart. They always sell tickets, it’s the day after Christmas when no one is doing anything (except spending gift cards. Have you seen the growth in the gift card industry? Why can’t we just start writing our friends and family checks?).

Anyway, Pitt might have gone to a BCS Bowl if their kicker had made an extra point. Did you see the photos of the team crying in the tunnel after they lost to Cincinnati? They made Tim Tebow look composed.

UNC has a pretty vanilla offense. Their defense is solid. They’re playing at home. They have a better coach. Pitt has left the building.

Reason to pick UNC: The ACC always wins this game.

Reason to pick Pitt: Wannestadt’s stache is a thing of beauty.

Reason to watch this game: You need a break from using all of your giftcards.

Pick: UNC

Emerald Bowl–USC vs. BC (Dec. 26) Line: USC-7

My first reaction when I saw that USC is a 7 point favorite in this game? I wanted to hit someone. They shouldn’t be favored against anyone. I wish that Joe McKnight had changed his mind at the last minute and gone to Alabama. Can you imagine a team with McKnight, Ingram and Trent Richardson? I mean, that team would be good. Unfortunately for McKnight, he chose to go to USC. And they are bad.

Anyway, BC isn’t a very good team. They have much less talent. They have to fly across the country to play in this game. But they are going to play like the game actually matters.

Wouldn't you rather be at Alabama, Joe McKnight?

I don’t think USC is going to care. This is hard. Pac 10>acc (the conference doesn’t deserve caps). USC talent>BC talent. BC’s motivation>USC’s motivation.

When in doubt, take the underdog.

Reason to pick USC: They have a better team.

Reason to pick BC: They are probably going to win the game.

Reason to watch: Always enjoyable watching USC lose.

Pick: BC

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl–Kentucky vs. Clemson (Dec. 27) Line: Clemson-7.5

Quick: take Kentucky. Don’t think about it. Just do it. Clemson just lost to South Carolina. I know you don’t want to pick Kentucky. I am begging you. Just do it. Randall Cobb and Lindley are great players. You won’t regret this. It’s the SEC vs. the acc. I know Clemson has Spiller and he’ll have 352 all purpose yards in the game. But this is a slam dunk. Do it. Stop reading this and click Kentucky.

Reason to pick Kentucky: They are going to win outright.

Reason to pick against Clemson: They are not going to win.

Reason to watch this game: To see which haggard country music star performs at halftime.

Pick: Kentucky

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl–Texas A&M vs. Georgia (Dec. 28) Line: Georgia-7

The good people of Shreveport always find a compelling corporate sponsor for this game. This year, Advocare wants to sell you their health and nutrition products, namely the V100 multivitamin. Which is a good sponsor. If you’re watching the Independence Bowl, you are probably asking yourself some hard questions, regretting some of the 15,000 calories you’ve taken in over the past three days, and maybe thinking about taking some positive steps in cleaning up the mess that is your life. How about a V100 multivitamin? 100 pills for $59.99 (plus shipping). They’re endorsed by Wes Welker. Look it up.

Advocare--helping you get off your candy ass

Anyway, the SEC makes this pick easy. Just take Georgia. Their defense is bad, but Rene Curran should shut down the scrambling QB for A&M. And UGA’s defense isn’t as bad as A&M’s.

Reason to pick UGA: In memory of UGA VII.

Reason to pick A&M: In memory of being able to stop an offense.

Reason to watch: To learn more about Advocare’s fine products.

Pick: UGA

Champs Sports Bowl–The U vs. Wisconsin (Dec. 29) Line Miami-3

Am I the only one who has that song they use in the “30for30″ campaign documenting the 1980’s Miami teams stuck in my head? “The U, it’s all about the U!”…I mean, you can’t write about the U without that song going through your head.

Wisconsin played in this game last year and were beaten soundly. The ACC has won this game for 5 years in a row. Unfortunately, Miami is Headcase U. Remember when Jacory Harris was the leading Heisman candidate?

Remember when I said to take the underdog? That rule doesn’t apply to the Big 10.

Reason to pick Miami: It’s all about the U.

Reason to pick against Miami: It’s no longer really about the U.

Reason to watch: To see which team took advantage of the numerous theme parks in the greater Orlando area.

Pick: Miami

Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl–Bowling Green vs. Idaho (Dec. 30) Line: Bowling Green-1

I know what you’re thinking: I haven’t heard of Roady’s. They are actually the nation’s largest chain of truck stops. Sounds like a chafe you develop on a car trip: “I’ve got a terrible case of the roadies.”

Anyway, boring sponsor, boring game. Played in the coldness of Boise on the blue field. If you watch this game for any extended period of time, start asking yourself some tough questions. Maybe Roady’s will inspire you to take on a life on our nation’s highways. Just you, some beef jerky, satellite radio, and a long stretch of road. You can make some positive changes in your life. And Roady’s will be there for you, even if you get a case of the roadies.

The holidays wouldn't be complete without a boring game from the blue field of Boise stadium...

I could give you some good reasons why Bowling Green is going to win. But I could do a lot of things.

Reason to pick Bowling Green: MAC is better than the WAC.

Reason to pick against Idaho: “Vandals” is actually the name of their mascot, but they didn’t earn it like Lane Kiffin’s team.

Reason to watch: To finally make some positive choices in your life.

Pick: Bowling Green

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl–Nebraska vs. Arizona (Dec. 30) Line: Arizona-2.5

Two big name programs, trying to get back to prominence. A big insurance company as the sponsor. This is what college football should look like. Get your damn popcorn ready. It’s Ndamajdkdlai Suh’s last game for crying out loud.

The coaches on these teams are both loud, overbearing lunatics. Conferences are even, slight edge to the Pac-10. You know Nebraska’s defense is great and their offense is terrible. It’s Suh’s last game. Unfortunately for Suh, Arizona doesn’t care about running. Their quarterback is decent. They won’t beat themselves and they should win.

Reason to take Arizona: They aren’t terrible

Reason to take Nebraska: Suh

Reason to watch: To see if the broadcast team creates a “Suh vs. Shamu” segment at SeaWorld in San Diego.

Pick: Arizona

Aight, that takes it to the New Year’s Eve games. Part III will kick off with the Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl. Get prepared. JB

Alabama is heading to the BCS Championship

It really is the most wonderful time of the year.

33 bowl game between Dec. 19th (the New Mexico Bowl) and Jan. 7th (CITI BCS National Championship).

Most offices have some kind of office pool. With the recession, most of you don’t have time to diligently research all of the games. Luckily for you, I don’t have a job (speaking of, I have an MA…If your HR person needs anyone, I’m generally available). The following is a methodical, scientific breakdown of the 66 teams vying for sainted glory this postseason. How good am I at picking the bowls? Not very good actually. But I’ve learned some lessons over the years:

1. Look out for the underdogs in the bowls.

These games are usually pretty even, and the big lines usually don’t get covered. The favored team also is rarely motivated, and the underdog wins outright with regularity. I could look up some supporting data on this, but you’ll have to trust me. When in doubt, take the underdog.

2. The SEC knows what they are doing.

Look, you’re going to point to Alabama’s loss to Utah last year and use that to thwart this analysis. I could write an entire blog post on that game, and how we were screwed from the start (basically, their NFL defensive end vs our rebuilt OL=problem. And the Alabama defense was built to stop the run, which wasn’t a problem for Utah, since they don’t run. And our midget defensive backs had trouble with their receiver who was 6′9″–look, there were a lot of red flags with that game.)

Last year the SEC was 6-2. The year before? 7-2 .The year before that? 6-3. If you’ve got an SEC underdog in a bowl, that’s your pick. Don’t think too hard. In the last week of this season, two middle tier SEC teams (South Carolina and Georgia) beat the two teams playing for the ACC Championship (Clemson and Georgia Tech). And stop thwarting me.

3. Look out for coaches/coordinators moving to other schools.

Think it’s hard to do your job when your wife is hectoring you about decorating your new house and you’re negotiating a contract? Devising a game plan probably doesn’t get the attention that it should. Of course, trying to figure out who is more focused between Brian Kelly (probably going to Notre Dame) and Charlie Strong (definitely going to Louisville) should be fun.

is this man really worried about Florida? courtesy of photoben27 on flickr

4. Motivated teams usually play better.

See Alabama, above. Does Florida want to play against Cincinnati? Is Oklahoma ecstatic about the Brut Sun Bowl? I have a theory about cold weather teams playing in warm climates. Basically, they are so happy not to be in cold weather that they don’t focus on football. Doesn’t that sound like a great theory? Do I have any stats to back that up? Of course not.

All right. 33 picks. You can’t go 33-0 without nailing the New Mexico Bowl.

New Mexico Bowl–Fresno St. vs. Wyoming (Dec. 19) Line: Fresno -10.5

I haven’t watched a ton of football this year. But I watched Fresno St play Boise St. Fresno RB Ryan Mathews had 19 carries for 245 yards and 3 touchdowns. Which is absurd, especially considering Oregon couldn’t run against Boise at all, frustrating Legarrette Blount so badly that he punched a guy, harassed fans, threw a trident and basically threw away his entire playing career.

TCU ran all over Wyoming. Betting against the Mountain West is usually a mistake, but Fresno is going to score a lot of points and Wyoming will not. Don’t get carried away with the double digit favorites, but this one isn’t close.

Reason to pick Fresno: Ryan Mathews.

Reason to pick against Wyoming: their uniforms are an eyesore.

ugly unis cost you every time

Special thanks to the state of New Mexico for bringing us this game. Looking forward to checking out the advertising the good people at the New Mexico tourism board are putting out for 2010.

Pick: Fresno St.

St. Petersburg Bowl–Rutgers vs. Central Florida. (De. 19) Line: Rutgers-2.5

The city of St. Petersburg welcomes two fairly mediocre teams to the Sunshine State. If you are watching this game and you aren’t gambling on it, I don’t know what to tell you. Other than you are a true football fan. Or a member of the St. Petersburg tourism board.

Central Florida is coached by George O’Leary, who would probably be coaching at Notre Dame right now if he hadn’t lied on his resume 8 years ago (from wikipedia: “O’Leary claimed that he had earned a master’s degree from “NYU-Stony Brook University,” a non-existent institution.”). He could have saved the Golden Dome from the embarrassment of the Charile Weis era. I hope someone from Notre Dame ends up reading this paragraph.

Rutgers has an ugly loss to Syracuse on its schedule. The loss to West Virginia is forgivable–it was in the snow at WV. But you can’t lose to Syracuse. UCF lost to Southern Miss, which is kind of forgivable, and it was early in the season.

Reason to pick UCF: they’re the underdog, basically playing a home game

Reason to pick against Rutgers: lost to a terrible Syracuse team.

Reason to watch this game: you are a degenerate gambler.

Pick: UCF

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl–Southern Miss vs. MTSU (Dec. 20) Line: Southern Miss -3.5

If nothing else, this bowl game lured me onto the R+L Carriers website. They apparently handle any shipping, freight or logistic concern you might have. And they sponsor a NASCAR driver. Not bad for a business that I’ve never heard of. I like that this is a hybrid destination/corporate sponsored bowl. If you start to get bored with international logistics ads, out of nowhere…BAM, it’s Emeril’s fat face on your high-def TV. Laissez les bon temps rouler…

OK, I really want to pick MTSU. I actually watched a little of one of their games, and the QB is a little bit of a headcase. They are in the weaker conference. And Southern Miss lost to UAB. Which is really inexcusable. UAB might have had 12 passing yards in the game.

But Southern Miss is the pick. They beat Troy in this game last year, and MTSU is the second best team in the Sun Belt.

Reason to pick Southern Miss: Better conference, basically a home game.

Reason to pick against Southern Miss: They aren’t a very good football team.

Reason to destroy your furniture if you actually wager on this game: When Southern Miss wins by a field goal.

Pick: Southern Miss

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl–Oregon St. vs. BYU (Dec 22) Line: Oregon St. -2

'Quizz!

This looks like a football game. If you haven’t watched Jaquizz (you can call him ‘Quizz) Rodgers, well, you’re about to.

Interesting note: this is the 5th straight year BYU has played in the Las Vegas Bowl. So they should know their way around. But how funny is it that 100 Mormon college kids have to go to Las Vegas? Strip clubs! Gambling! Booze! You’re in college! Except that you’re Mormon. Enjoy your hotel pool.

This is a coin flip. Oregon St. shouldn’t have lost that game to USC. But I can’t get past the BYU loss to Florida State. That looks ugly on a resume. There are a lot of reasons to pick BYU in this one, especially their quarterback is probably going to be in the NFL. Oregon St. shakes off some late nights, remembers that they’re in the Pac-10 and wins by a field goal.

Reasons to pick Oregon St: Coach Mike Riley played for the Bear. The Rodgers are the best brothers on the same team in college football that aren’t the Pounceys.

Reason to pick BYU: Well rested/not hungover.

Reason to watch: What else are you doing?

Pick: Oregon St. wins with a late field goal

San Diego Poinsettia Bowl–Utah vs. Cal (Dec 23) Line: Cal-3

I don’t like what Cal has done this year. I have a strong anti-Cal bias. Utah has won 8 bowl games in a row. Jahvid Best is coming back from a scary concussion. They have a common opponent: both teams lost to Oregon. But Utah made it a game.

I’m not wasting time on this. Cal could play the best game of the season and surprise me. Whatever.

Reason to pick Utah: They don’t lose bowl games.

Reason to pick against Utah: Cal occasionally shows up for games.

Reason to watch: I like it when bowls are named after non-corporate inanimate objects. I miss the Bluebonnet Bowl.

Pick: Utah

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl–Nevada vs. SMU (Dec. 24) Line: Nevada -14

Nevada is the leading rushing team in the nation. SMU nearly beat Navy, the second leading rushing team in the nation. And they beat UAB, who basically runs all the time. I don’t see Nevada covering 14 points here. Although, as an Alabama fan, I owe Nevada’s Coach Ault a big thanks for the “Pistol” formation, which has been the key to Alabama’s offense this year.

Reason to pick SMU: June Jones makes his triumphant return to Hawaii.

Reason to pick Nevada: the Pistol is smoking.

Reason to watch: it’s Christmas Eve. What are you going to do, talk to your family?

Pick: SMU

Six bowls down, 1500 words. Part II coming tomorrow. 27 bowls to go.

Oh yes oh yes oh yes!  Bowl season is upon us.  As of Sunday night, the 2009-2010 bowl schedule is just about wrapped up (one invite will be determined after the Army-Navy game on the 12^th).  The glorious weeks between December 19 and January 7 will undoubtedly be oft-discussed around the water cooler at work or your traditional weekend watering hole.  This year, instead of rolling your eyes and changing the subject (which, let’s just face it, you only do because you’re intimidated by the conversation), you’re going to be equipped to participate.  If I’ve done a decent job, you may even be able to introduce a couple of valid points.

Disclaimer #14: I have yet to experience much backlash but I would like to keep myself covered, just in case: if you don’t care about sports or don’t think it matters for women to know about sports, you don’t need to read (although, I will say that my carefully articulated prose does have the addictive properties of, say, crystal meth).  This is just a fun way to help educate women about the talking points associated with athletics.

Rather than a boring game-by-game analysis (ESPN.com has a great—NOT boring—overview of all 30+ games), I thought it would be fun to review the biggest winners and losers after Sunday’s announcements.

Biggest Winners:

Second Runner-up: Pac-10 Conference. I had initially considered the Pac-10 to be among this year’s losers: for the seventh year running, just one Pac-10 team will be representing the conference in a BCS Bowl.  That stings.  Upon second glance (and insight from a long lost friend), though, I remembered that the conference was considered by several analysts to be the deepest in the nation, could potentially receive seven bowl bids (if Army loses this Saturday, UCLA will be invited to the EagleBank Bowl), and had five teams ranked in the latest BCS Poll.  Let’s not forget the national coverage these guys experienced this year: arguably the best game of the year came out of the Pac-10, was on primtime national television (called by Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musberger no less!), and didn’t feature USC.  Yes, I am referring to the 44-41 2OT thriller out of Tucson between Oregon and Arizona.  Not too shabby, hmm?  To take things one step further, feel free to review the Second Runner-up in the Biggest Loser category.  Suffice it to say, the Pac-10 has had several teams emerge from beneath a maroon and gold shadow this season.  And that’s some pretty exciting stuff.

Runner-up: Iowa Hawkeyes. When we last discussed the Hawkeyes in October, they had yet to lose a game.  In the interim, Iowa lost quarterback Ricky Stanzi to an ankle injury (and their game) against Northwestern, followed by a second loss to Ohio State.  Stanzi underwent surgery to facilitate his recovery and is planning to return for Iowa’s bowl game.  The fact that Iowa was awarded a berth in this year’s Orange Bowl is what places them in the winner category.  After Big Ten play culminated (before Thanksgiving – so early!), much ado was made about Penn State (another two-loss team) deserving the second BCS bid behind Ohio State’s Rose Bowl invite. It was thought that Penn State could provide a bigger draw in terms of tickets and viewership, as the Nittany Lions have an illustrious history and humongous following.  As I’ve alluded to before (and will continue this rant in my “Losers” section), the BCS is all about money, money, money.  In many instances, the BCS will opt for the team with the most booster support and profit potential.  This year, Iowa’s win over PSU was enough to keep them in the race for the Orange Bowl title.

Overall 1 (and 2): Alabama and Texas. These two teams, who will duke it out for the national championship, are the clear winners in the BCS.  Both teams have had fantastic seasons with convincing wins (Alabama’s most decisive performance coming this past week against the defending champion Florida Gators; Texas’s best win would have to be the thrashing of then-#14 Oklahoma State) and offer top talent (Texas QB Colt McCoy has officially becoming the winningest starter in the history of the game with 45 wins, while Alabama RB Mark Ingram is currently leading the Heisman Trophy race).  That being said, neither team has had an easy path to Pasadena.  Alabama’s season has been peppered with questionable officiating (that frequently benefited the Crimson Tide) and narrow margins of victory.  The Longhorns emerged victorious in a less-than-stellar Big 12 conference on the heels of an incredibly close championship game against Nebraska.  Long story short, an official review gave Texas one additional second to kick a 46-yard game-winning field goal. If you didn’t see the game, it was mayhem.  The margins of victory aren’t important though: the victories themselves are.  And neither of these teams lost a game in their respective major conferences.  Their bowl berths are well-deserved and will certainly result in one heck of a game January 7^th.

Biggest Losers:

Second Runner-up: USC Trojans.  My, how the mighty have fallen.  I’m not sure how many times I’ve heard the phrase “Pete Carroll doesn’t rebuild.  He reloads.”  And, truthfully, Southern Cal has dominated the Pac-10 in such a way that makes such silly generalizations difficult to argue.  With the departure of junior QB Mark Sanchez, four linebackers and six additional Trojans for the NFL, it appears that even Carroll can only work so much magic.  True freshman Matt Barkley shows significant potential with early composure (see USC’s final game-winning drive at Ohio State), but frequently looked like a 19 year-old on the field.  A defense led by senior (and future NFL player) Taylor Mays was inconsistent and, at times, downright porous.  For a program marked by consistency (five Rose Bowl appearances in the past six seasons), the 2009 Trojans were a team marred by inconsistency.  For the first time since 2002, USC will not have even a share of the Pac-10 title and have settled for a place in the Emerald Bowl.  I’ll be curious to see if Carroll will reload for the 2010 season, or if the improved Pac-10 will force his Trojans to continue rebuilding.

Runner-up:  Notre Dame / Charlie Weis. While the disappointing Trojans have graciously accepted their Emerald Bowl bid, the 6-6 Fighting Irish publicly announced a decision to forego any potential bowl invites.  Notre Dame has gone through quite a bit this season: close game after close game (some wins, some losses) and incessant speculation regarding head coach Charlie Weis’ future.  Ultimately, Weis lost his job and the Irish went .500 for the season.  Because Weis also assumed the role of Offensive Coordinator, Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate (both of whom have since declared for the NFL draft) and crew have been left without so much as a play caller upon Weis’ departure.  This was the reasoning provided by Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick, but one can’t help but wonder if there may have been an additional motive.  After securing the bare minimum number of wins necessary for a bowl berth, Notre Dame was facing possible invites to the GMAC Bowl or Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.  Could it be that these games might be beneath the mighty Fighting Irish?  Any way you slice it, there’s no denying just how rough of a year it’s been for the boys in South Bend.

**UPDATE: Looks like we’re going to have to add Cincinnati to the Biggest Loser list.  I’ll attach them to Notre Dame, as head coach Brian Kelly will be leaving the Bearcats squad for greener, more Irish pastures.  This ups Notre Dame’s stock a bit but we’ll have to wait until next season to bump them from the loser list.  This is a pet peeve of mine, but why couldn’t Notre Dame wait three weeks to make this announcement?  I understand that the pressure from ND alumni and boosters must be crushing, but with this announcement, Brian Kelly has dealt a major blow to his now-former team.  After their most successful season in school history, Kelly has essentially abandoned the Bearcats mere weeks before their biggest game of the year.  If you’re feeling a sense of déjà vu, it’s because West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez committed this precise indescretion prior to the 2008 Fiesta Bowl, when he publicly agreed to take the University of Michigan head coaching position, left vacant by Lloyd Carr.  The Mountaineers were victorious in their Fiesta Bowl outing and I sincerely hope Cincinnati will experience the same success in this year’s Sugar Bowl.  It’s tough enough to see the price tag placed upon loyalty in professional sports, but there’s an added brutality when this same standard becomes apparent in the college game.  Don’t get me wrong: the Notre Dame football head coaching position is nearly the end-all, be-all in college athletics and I can’t begrudge Kelly for jumping at the opportunity.  I just would like to see these types of decisions put on hold until the bowl season finishes.  Annnnd please hold while I hobble down from my soap box.

And the Biggest Loser is (drum roll please)… TCU. And Boise State. And the BCS.  And the American Public. Throughout the season, we’ve all wondered where TCU and Boise State would fall in the BCS lineup.  Would the Horned Frogs and Broncos have the opportunity to compete for the national title or, at the very least, a victory over a BCS school?  Neither team disappointed, finishing with unblemished records and raring to take on its own giant.  Thanks to the BCS, we will get to see the two teams take on….. each other.  It’s bad enough that we are missing out on two David-Goliath matchups, but to add insult to injury, we have already SEEN this match: last year’s Poinsettia Bowl. To put it plainly, this is a copout.  The legitimacy of the BCS bowl series relies on the dominance of the BCS conferences.  This is a heavy topic to thoroughly delve into, but suffice it to say that the national following / booster support of schools such as Texas Christian and Boise State is not financially beneficial to the BCS.  By having the two teams play one another, the BCS will successfully avoid smaller schools defeating major BCS members.  Such wins would be thrilling and hugely celebrated to be sure (who doesn’t love an underdog?), but would also inevitably expose flaws in the established BCS system, leaving the number of at-large bids up for additional scrutiny and possibly creating an adverse affect on the profit potential of the series as a whole.  Wow.  What a mouthful.
Is it December 19 yet?  I can’t think of a better post-op recovery plan than bowl game after bowl game after bowl game.

2010 BCS Bowls projections

I know I wrote on this earlier, but that was based on what was happening then… and oddly, after a week or so, not too much has changed, but that will DEFINIATELY change this weekend. So let’s talk on this for a bit.

Now, for those that don’t quite understand all about the BCS, I am right there with ya, but we can at least talk on some theories. I am not saying I know it all, but I am a big fan of college football, so we are in the same boat.

Now, to begin, let’s remember that there are FIVE bowls in the BCS. One is the National Championship, which takes the top two teams in the nation by BCS scores, and leaves the other four to at large teams, with some exceptions. We will get to that in a moment.

What is important to also know is the ORDER of the bowls for 2010, because the order determines who picks first. The first order is always the National Championship, but after that it differs. This year, 2010, the order is Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Notice something missing? Rose Bowl? That’s because the Rose Bowl isn’t interested in the BCS to mix their “tradition” with the others, they want to keep their Pac-10 and Big 10 rival cemented. So they are not “in the mix”, although they really are.

So, if we were to look at who was going to the BCS, and the other major bowls, lets first determine, at this very moment, who the top 12 teams are…because that is important:

In order, they are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State and Georgia Tech. Following them are LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. And for good measure, we throw in the next three, being Oregon, Miami and Houston.

From this list we can put together our theory about who will be going where. Now, even though we are using theory, we still have to make a slight assumption, one I will get to in a sec.

So let’s start first with the National Championship…who is going to the BCS Championship?

The natural assumption is to take the #1 and #2 teams, in this case being Florida and Alabama…but right off the bat this isn’t accurate. The problem is that both teams are from the SEC, and we all know that they must play each other in the SEC Championship… one team will lose, and fall out.

For the sake of argument let us assume that Florida wins, just the assumption that #1 beats #2. IF we go with that, then we can project Florida in the National Championship against the #3 team, Texas. Now, I know Texas still has to play in their Big 12 Championship just as Florida and Alabama must play in their conference championship but we are just going with the idea that those two SEC teams must eliminate one from the conversation. So the BCS Championship in theory would be Florida and Texas.

Now, after that, things get a little hairy.

Once the National Championship has been determined, a lot of clauses kick in, one being the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl gets to select their teams, and because they stick with their tradition, they will take the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions. But this can be misleading.

On the BCS rankings, they have Iowa as the best Big 10 team…but it is Ohio State that will be going to the Rose Bowl, which in theory knocks out the #10 team for the #11 team. This already creates some chaos because the idea in the BCS bowls was to get the top 10 teams in, and this has already been disrupted.

So Ohio State is in, bumping out Iowa. What about the Pac-10? Oregon finishes as the best team in the Pac-10, but USC is ranked at #9, while Oregon is ranked #13… Oh my.

So the Rose Bowl has, in theory, already screwed up the system, because two of the top 10 teams in the nation are snubbed initially for a BCS bowl. So let’s recap a bit:

BCS Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State vs. #13 Oregon.

Hmm, sounds odd already.

Now, after those two bowls, we can get into the order of selections. Remember, this year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. So the Orange Bowl gets to select who they want in their bowl in Florida.

Now, just as the Rose Bowl must take the champions of the Pac-10 and Big-10, there are other contracts that must be upheld. The Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC, meaning they MUST take the ACC Champion unless they are in the National Championship. Since neither Florida or Texas is an ACC team, that means they must take whoever wins the ACC Championship…which at this moment would be either Georgia Tech or Clemson.

Now this is interesting because even though Georgia Tech is ranked #7, Clemson is not on that top 15 list. It would be very embarrassing if a team NOT in the top 15 goes to a BCS bowl. For sake of argument, let us assume that the higher ranked team would win, in this case, Georgia Tech (just like we did the SEC Championship with Florida and Alabama). If this was the case, then Georgia Tech would go to the Orange Bowl because that is the contract with the ACC. It would then leave the Orange Bowl to have the first selection of the remaining teams.

To me, that gives them one of four realistic choices: Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Once we get into any bowl outside of the National Championship, I think it comes do contracts and ticket sales. With that being the case, we also know that you stand a better chance most times in selling tickets if the teams are closer to the bowl. For that reason, I don’t think Boise State would go to the Orange Bowl…just too far to travel. The same could also be said for TCU to some degree. Would the Orange Bowl take Cincinnati…absolutely. How about Alabama? Absolutely! Either would be a great pick, but the charm of being undefeated might mean more dollars than a nearby SEC school. So I think the Orange Bowl might take a Georgia Tech/ Cincinnati matchup. That means you have a #5 vs. a #7…which isn’t that bad.

That leaves two bowls left, and the Fiesta Bowl has next shot.

With the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, and with the next two picks, there are a few things this bowl has to keep in mind. One, they have a contractual obligation to the Big 12 conference, and they have to look at location, just like the Orange Bowl. But one of the clauses kicks in here, in that IF a Big 12 team is in the National Championship, then the Fiesta Bowl is free to select any other team. And since Texas, a Big 12 team, is in the championship (as per our theory) that leaves the Fiesta Bowl to take two teams.

So in theory, they could take the two highest ranked teams left, which would be TCU, a one loss Alabama, or Boise State. Now immediately you might think that pitting TCU and Boise State would be simplicity, but I beg to differ. Granted this would be a good game, but we saw that game last year. To sell tickets, the bowl may need to give the fans a unique game, not one just held a year ago. Heck, some people got tired of the USC/Ohio State games, so it makes some sense.

I think TCU has the inside track for the Fiesta Bowl, and it would be against either Boise State or Alabama. For sake of not getting a repeat, I think that the Fiesta Bowl would entertain the TCU/Alabama game because it puts a non BCS against a top ranked BCS school…but the temptation to have two undefeated teams could sway them to go with TCU/Boise State. Personally, I think they will drop Boise State for Alabama.

So let’s recap again:

BCS National Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas…
(theory being if Alabama loses and Texas wins, Texas will be #2)

Orange Bowl ACC Champion Georgia Tech (7) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East Champs)
(theory being if GA Tech beats Clemson and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh)

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State (Big 10 Champs) vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 10 Champs)

Fiesta Bowl #4 TCU (Mountain West Champs) vs. Alabama (SEC Runner up)

That brings us to the final BCS Bowl, the Sugar Bowl. They get the last two picks, but they have a clause too. They must, by contract, take the SEC Champion, but since Florida is the SEC Champs and in the BCS Championships, they are free to take two teams, just like the Fiesta Bowl.

If things go like we discussed, then the highest ranked team still available would be Boise State. For sake of having an undefeated team, the Sugar Bowl will take them… but there may be a question to how well Boise State travels. I mean, New Orleans isn’t a hop, skip and jump away. But still, it is a logical choice of the remaining teams.

So who will the Boise State Broncos play?

There are still several choices based on the remaining teams on that top 15 ranking, but right off the bat, we can eliminate Houston. Just not strong enough to make a good matchup with Boise State. This leaves LSU, USC, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami.

The logical choice is by far LSU, but this brings in another clause…one that prevents LSU from playing in New Orleans. By rule, no conference can put in more than two teams out of their own conference in the BCS Bowls. Remember that LSU is a SEC school…so are Florida and Alabama. This means that in theory, LSU would not, COULD NOT, play in the Sugar Bowl.

That leaves USC, which is probably too far to travel. Then you may have to look at Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami. If we can assume that Cincinnati is undefeated, then it also means they beat Pittsburgh, which knocks them out of the picture. So this leaves Boise State to play either Iowa or Miami…which would sell more tickets?

Iowa is ranked #10, and Miami currently #14, so that might be the choice, but who travels better? Better traveling means more ticket sales. I think the Big 10 does well in traveling, after all, if they can get to Pasadena, they can surely get to New Orleans. I think Iowa plays Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

So there you have it, the 10 teams selected in the BCS bowls. Of the top 10 teams, LSU and USC will miss out, and will play in lesser bowls. We shall see. Remember, all this is theory at the moment, just to give you an idea of how this might work out. The truth comes this weekend when many of these teams play their conference championships and final regular season games…

ESPN did a quick survey of the Pac-10 fan base. This won’t come as a surprise to anyone who is familiar with the Pac-10 – Oregon fans are ranked as the rudeest in the Pac-10. Twice as rude as the second place Trojans.

Even Mike Bellotti chimed in:

This is why security will be beefed up on Thursday. And why Bellotti and Oregon State athletic director Bob De Carolis have considered shooting a joint video, and maybe adding Governor Ted Kulongoski, to promote what Bellotti calls a positive, passionate atmosphere.

“I want to change it,” Bellotti says. “I take it as a challenge to all of us.”

When confronted with this poll many duck fans responded at addicktedtoquack:

eff the Huskies

I’m not surprised that we were voted rudest, unfortunately. We’ve a lot of young whippersnappers who have not perspective and drink a lot. Now get off my lawn.

A fellow quacker got so drunk he started dropping f bombs and had to be escorted when one of the mama bears for Okie State got in his face and told him to shut up (she had two young boys). He told me, “man, the duck fans are a little obnoxious.

Jon Wilner writes about their inappropriate student section:

They held offensive signs and showered Love with insults, some of them reportedly homophobic, that went far beyond “it’s part of the game” classification.

This was hardly the first time the students have behaved like jack—-. It’s not all of them; it’s probably only a few; but it has happened repeatedly over the years.

As one Oregon official said: “It’s an ongoing thing to get our students to behave properly.”

Nick Daschel writes on his blog:

But in a survey of just about every person I know, Duck fans are the most annoying, entitled fans in the Pac-10. It’s really not close. I hate to lump all Oregon fans into one group, because some of them get it, that they are where they are because of Phil Knight’s deep, deep pockets. But too many of them don’t. We are Oregon, we are owed success, and if you don’t understand our superiority, then blank you. Here’s a news flash: without Knight, you’re Oregon State.

Some random quotes I found on other duck message boards:

My friend from USC was sitting next to me on Halloween (decked out in Trojan gear), and I have to say I was totaly embarrassed by the treatment he endured all game. He left in the 3rd quarter because he couldn’t stand it any longer.

but I have to say that about 10% of our fans act like Neanderthals hooked on Meth. It’s totally sad and embarrassing.

If I were an opposing fan, I would not visit Autzen, at least not wearing my team’s colors. I was at the ASU game last weekend and we sat in the ‘visitor’s’ section. I saw two ASU fans sitting in that section. Both were berrated by intoxicated Duck fans.

Family friendly we are not. I will only bring my young son to the Spring game. As for all other games there are way too many drunks and idiots swearing at the top of their lungs. I would like to see the SEC “if you leave, you don’t come back” rule.

If a Duck fan is mistreated in Berkeley, or in Palo Alto, it’s his own damn fault. If a Duck fan is mistreated at the Rose Bowl or the Coliseum, ditto. Dare to stop and take a look; the picture we see in the mirror is shameful as we attend games outside the NW.

I have had great experiences at all the Pac-10 schools mostly because I engage the opposing fans respectfully and humorously. Autzen fans could learn from this.

As a life long Duck fan, I will say that I am a bit disappointed by the behavior or some of our young drunk college students. Lots of swearing …

It’s clear we are rude, obnoxius, and just plain unprofessional. Let’s clean it up. I’ve been saying for the past few years we’ve really gone south on our sportsmanship and decency and it’s clear EVERYONE thinks so as well. Ducks have just become rude. Look at Blount. Look at our reaction to Blount. It’s clear across the board people perceive us very badly. Maybe we need to clean it up and be humbled some?

From the dailyEmerald:

… the level of class in Autzen Stadium was still astonishingly low on Halloween. Yes, I was one of the four SC fans not sitting in the designated SC section, and there were moments when I thought I would be socked in the face à la LeGarrette Blount for applauding a USC touchdown.

Did I expect courteous hospitality? Not at all. I live in Seattle and have heard all the stories from Husky fans. I expected passionate, loud, and rowdy, but at least intelligent football fans. What I experienced were loud, delusional, insecure, and offensive fans.

You were a fool if you didn’t see this coming before the season started when Erickson decided to start Sullivan. That decision in and of itself spelled doom on the season from the get go.

Then you come to the offensive scheme switch that consists of the same three running plays, that turn into six running plays when you flip the first three around and run them the opposite direction.

Shot gun spread Isolation block zone read, shot gun spread one pulling guard zone read, shot gun spread two pulling guards zone read, with no optioning by the QB. Once you eliminate the option aspect of the rushing plan you get what ASU had all season, a predictable running game that any team can stop by overloading one side of the formation.

That type of predictability is completely unacceptable for even Pop Warner level games. Yet this is the type of predictability Dennis Erickson implemented time and time again with this offense.

Now comes the funny part on defense (no I’m not an advocate of Koetter or a fan of Dirk Koetter), SEVEN of the main contributors on this defense are Dirk Koetter recruits. The seven players on this rebuilt defense that helped to carry the load are as follows:

Mike Nixon, Travis Goethel, Gerald Munns, Ryan McFoy, Sai Fahahola, James Brooks (who committed to Koetter before Erickson arrived) and finally Dexter Davis.

Yes Erickson brought in Lawrence Guy and Vontaze Burfict, but can you name another player on the defense that has made a contribution on the team that is on the same level as those seven?

The answer is no, therefore I don’t think it’s fair to give Erickson all the credit for the success we are seeing on this defense. Again not being an advocate or defender of Dirk Koetter, just pointing out the fact that Erickson should not get all the credit in the world for the defense being fixed from the Koetter era.

Now what we do know is that Erickson (like Koetter before him on the defensive line) cannot seem to recruit offensive linemen and is stucking moving guards out to tackle and playing offensive guards across all five of his O-Line spots. Much like Koetter had to move Jordan Hill from LB to DT and attempt to grow D-Lineman from the under-sized David Smith and Wes Evans, Erickson moved Lauvao out to OT and played Hargis and Adam Tello at OT last year.

Now the best two offensive linemen in the state are leaving to go play football out of state Kody Innes and Nick Rowland.

So looking forward to the 2009 season we’re supposed to count on a transfer at QB who completed just over 51% of his passes and threw for 9 touchdowns and 7 INTs in 2008. A 51-percent completion percentage and nearly as many INTs as touchdowns, this is what we are bringing in to be the savior of the program at QB?

Now comes the real problem, Erickson and his good old boy personality, the way he works a room, the way he works a crowd, his dry sense of humor, he’s fan, alumni and media friendly and most importantly booster friendly….he has the full support of the boosters. The people with the deep pockets who would fork out the money to buy Erickson out and hire his replacement LOVE DENNIS ERICKSON.

So Erickson’s job is safe for next season, the pressure is not on him to perform and the likelihood that this program struggles worse on defense and doesn’t step up it’s game on offense in 2010 is pretty high.

This is the direction Erickson has taken this program, this is the same harsh assessment I have given this program the last two years, the same assessments that have me banned from the message boards on ASUDevils.com and DevilsDigest.com.

This is the grim reality no one wants to hear about, the grim realiy no one wants to talk about and most people would prefer to just cover their eyes and point to small recruiting wins here and there as signs that this program is set to turn the corner.

You have to peel away the layers and look deeper into this program than what you hear from the cheer leaders and yes sir media types that we have in this market. Either that or you have to find people who cover the team that actually can actually analyze the product you see on the field and aren’t afraid to give a true unvarnished opinon of where this ASU football program stands.

7 out of the past 8 years, CAL has beat Stanford...

That made my evening…

First, I want to express who B.S. it is that Versus showed the Big Game. This is a game that is made for network T.V. There is no reason to deny anyone the pleasure of seeing the hatred between these two schools and the resulting battle on the field.  With the game of the cable channel Versus, most of the crew could not watch the game, because we have DirecTV.  Comcast owns Versus and they have been licensing the right to show it on DirecTV.  But, in some contract dispute, Comcast took it’s ball and went home.  They claim that DirecTV (who owns an exclusive contract with the NFL to broadcast the games)  That means that the conference that the crew follows (Pac-10 all day) can have hit or miss coverage of the games.  For me, fortunately, I was in Chicago, and the hotel at the Residence Inn has regular cable, so they have Versus.

Scoring Summary
FIRST QUARTER				CAL	STAN
	TD	13:24	Toby Gerhart 61 Yd Run (Nate Whitaker Kick)	0	7
	TD	04:46	Toby Gerhart 2 Yd Run (Eric Whitaker Kick)	0	14
	FG	00:53	Vince D’Amato 21 Yd	3	14
SECOND QUARTER				CAL	STAN
	TD	00:45	Shane Vereen 1 Yd Run (Vince D’Amato Kick)	10	14
THIRD QUARTER				CAL	STAN
	TD	09:55	Shane Vereen 4 Yd Run (Vince D’Amato Kick)	17	14
	TD	03:50	Shane Vereen 3 Yd Run (Vince D’Amato Kick)	24	14
	TD	00:12	Toby Gerhart 1 Yd Run (Eric Whitaker Kick)	24	21
FOURTH QUARTER				CAL	STAN
	TD	13:14	Marvin Jones 12 Yd Pass From Kevin Riley (Vince D’Amato Kick)	31	21
	TD	07:01	Toby Gerhart 5 Yd Run (Eric Whitaker Kick)	31	28
	FG	02:42	Vince D’Amato 28 Yd	34	28

ESPN provides some context to the score.

It was over when… Cal’s Mike Mohamed intercepted a pass from Stanford QB Andrew Luck at the 3 with less than 2 minutes left.

Gameball goes to… Shane Vereen. The Cal back rushed for a career-high 193 yards and three touchdowns on 42 carries.

This is a dude who really wants it.....

Vereen has responded with the two best games of his career the past two weeks in wins over Arizona and Stanford. Running effectively off direct snaps in Cal’s form of the wildcat, Vereen overpowered the Cardinal. The Bears drove more than 70 yards on four consecutive TD drives starting late in the second quarter, three ending with short runs by Vereen.

“I never carried that many times and never thought I’d carry that many times,” Vereen said. “I just had so much emotion, I didn’t think about any tiredness or pain.”

Stat of the game… 19:14. The difference in time of possession as Cal held the ball for 39:07 compared to Stanford’s 20:53.

We’ve heard a lot of talk about, ‘Oh, they’re going to go to the Rose Bowl,’ ” Mohamed said. “We felt like they were overlooking us a little bit. For us to come out and to prove all these guys wrong, it feels good. And we’re keeping the Axe in Berkeley another year. You can’t get much better than that.”And it’s tough to imagine a better Big Game than one that had Rose Bowl implications, memorable performances by Vereen and Stanford’s Heisman contender Toby Gerhart, curious coaching decisions and a most dramatic finish.

 

The curious coaching decision was that Harbaugh went for a 4th and 8 that missed and gave CAL great field position, which they turned into a field goal 2ith 2:42 remaining in the game.  But, that left CAL only up six, with plenty of time for the coach who was nicknamed Captain Comeback as a player.  But, the interception on the 13 closed out the game.

One mans glory, is another mans pain, and it belongs to Toby Gerhart, who did everything in his power to win the game.

This marked the third time this season that the Cardinal lost a game in which they led by at least 14 points. This one was especially painful because it came against Cal and ended the team’s Rose Bowl hopes. Stanford would have been eliminated anyway when Oregon beat Arizona 44-41 in double overtime, but now the Cardinal can’t even share the conference title.

“This one hurts,” Gerhart said. “Everybody takes pride in winning this game. The season has been decent and getting to a bowl game is nice but we had greater goals than that. When all is said and done we’ll have an empty pit in our stomach that we didn’t get the Axe back.”

The parties are less fun when you lose.  Stanford, you just got caught up in the hype… Welcome home AXE!

The University of Oregon just got another step closer to the Rose Bowl with a 44-41 double-overtime victory of Arizona. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli had 3 touchdowns in the big win. It’s looking like an Oregon and Ohio State Rose Bowl this season. What do you think?

~Signing Off~
AGE

By Kyle Bauer

Did you see when Rich Rodriguez fumbled that ball in the end zone?

You should check this out too.

2010 Orange Bowl

A quick blog about this year’s Orange Bowl, because it might have some interesting bits about it.

This year, or season if you will, the Orange Bowl has the top spot of the BCS bowls, meaning they get to select first the teams they want to play in their bowl AFTER the BCS Championship is made. I want to take a moment to say how tasteless the ROSE BOWL is acting, where they continue to get what they want without working with the other 3 bowls. Jerks.

Anyway, to give you an idea of who could be playing in that Orange Bowl, consider first that the selection process begins AFTER the BCS is determined. Now we know at this moment Florida and Alabama both are 1 and 2, but we know that will change because they must play each other. (let’s not also forget they both had QUESTIONABLE calls to keep them undefeated…)

But for sake of argument, lets assume Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship. If so then it is safe to assume Texas plays Florida in the BCS Championship, right. So how does that affect the Orange Bowl?

Once that game is set, the Orange Bowl gets to pick the two teams it would like in their bowl game. But because of the Rose Bowl, they can’t touch the best Pac-10 and Big 10, because they are obligated to the Rose bowl. This would take out Oregon and Ohio State…at this moment.

So now the Orange Bowl has its pick of everybody else, including Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State and Alabama. But here is a tricky part…they are contractually obligated to the ACC Champion…which at this moment could be Georgia Tech.

Now that is not a bad choice, since GA Tech is in the mix for the top 10, but the Orange Bowl would be losing some power by taking a #7 team when it can have a #4 vs. #5. So the Orange bowl has to find an opponent for Georgia Tech.

They would likely have some good options with TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State, or even Alabama. None of those schools are obligated anywhere else, so the Orange Bowl would love to have any of those. But I don’t see them picking Boise State, they are just too far out there to guarantee heavy ticket sales… and yes folks, it is about the money for these bowls. I wonder if TCU might be a stretch as well. To me, I think the Orange Bowl might try to snatch undefeated Cincinnati to make this a very good game. By doing that, they might actually do the Sugar and Fiesta bowls a favor, allowing the Fiesta to take EITHER Boise or TCU (not both, since they played last year).

So right now, it looks like the Orange Bowl could be Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati… if all holds out.

2010 Fiesta Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

Now since this is about the Fiesta bowl, we know they pick AFTER the Orange bowl…but there are some complications. The Fiesta bowl is normally obligated to take the Big 12 Champion…UNLESS that same team is in the National Championship. If that happens, then they are free to take anyone else. Since Texas is (in this example) in the BCS Title game, they can pick any other two teams (minding you that they can’t pick Oregon or Ohio State because of the Rose Bowl.

It is quite likely that the Orange Bowl will take Georgia Tech because they must take the ACC champs, and it might be quite desirable that they will also take Cincinnati, because they are undefeated and nearer to the site of the Orange Bowl (Florida) than TCU or Boise State. If such is the case, who then would the Fiesta Bowl take?

I believe the Fiesta would have a choice of three teams…TCU, Boise State and Alabama. Two are undefeated (TCU and BSU), but you have a quality team in Alabama, and you know they travel well. I could see the Fiesta Bowl taking Alabama, because I am not so sure they want to take a repeat of TCU/Boise State…after all they played last year.

So I think either TCU or Boise State would be out, but can you ignore a bowl with two undefeated teams? This puts the Fiesta Bowl in a tough spot. A TCU/Alabama game would be nice, but so would a Boise State/Alabama game. I think if all things being equal, I think TCU and Alabama would be their choice. Alabama played the tougher schedule and is indeed better with one loss than Boise State with none, and TCU has the tough schedule to prove they are better than Boise State.

So that’s who I see in the Fiesta at this moment, TCU and Alabama.

2010 Sugar Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Sugar Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

So this year the Sugar Bowl is the last of the BCS bowl games to select who they wish to play in their bowl. This in theory says they should pick the #9 and #10 teams on the BCS standings, right? Wrong. That’s not how it works.

If we take a guess at who may be going where, we can assume at least at the moment that Florida plays Texas in the BCS Championship. That takes care of the SEC and Big 12 Conferences.

We assume that the Rose Bowl will take Oregon and Ohio State, taking care of the Pac-10 and Big 10 Conferences.

We believe the Orange Bowl, since it has the first selections of the remaining three bowls, will take Georgia Tech because they are contracted to take the ACC Champs, and will likely take Cincinnati for a great matchup.

That would take care of the ACC and Big East. So technically, all the major conferences are satisfied. But the BCS must also give a spot to the best non-BSC school, in this case, TCU.

Because the Fiesta Bowl picks next, they are normally obligated to take a Big 12 school, but with Texas in the BCS Title game, they are no longer bound to that. We think the Fiesta Bowl will take TCU and likely Alabama, and pass up on Boise State because BSU and TCU played in a bowl last year.

If this is the case, then the last of the major bowls would be the Sugar Bowl. They are normally contracted to have the SEC Champions, but with Florida in the BCS, they are no longer bound to that. They could select anyone they want…which brings in Boise State.

Ideally the Sugar Bowl would love to have Alabama, because it is closer for them, and it brings the SEC familiarity to the bowl game. But if Fiesta takes Alabama, then the Sugar Bowl has to consider who it wants…and most likely it would be Boise State. The question is if the fans can travel from Idaho to Louisiana…it is a bit further than Arizona.

The Sugar Bowl could take Boise State and one other team…how about LSU? That would be a great game, to have Boise State and LSU, or maybe Boise State plays Pittsburgh? But the assumption here is that Boise State is the lock, as I believe they should be, but is it more tempting to have LSU play Pittsburgh? Can Boise State draw in the east? That would be pretty interesting.

But if I had to put money on it, I would think the Sugar Bowl would take Boise State and SEC friend LSU.

Is ESPN Pushing for Boise State?

You know, I am as much a fan of the underdog as anybody else, my college is from the Southern Conference, and we have been underdogs for quite some time. And I understand in college football how so many like to pull for teams like TCU and Boise State because the could “crash” the BCS…but I gotta tell ya, some of this is getting down right stupid.

Why does ESPN and the guys there seem to feel that it is so righteous for Boise State to be in a National Championship? Again, I am not against BSU, but so often we try to force a situation without taking a hard look at the things around it.

Let’s get this straight right now folks, and we can debate this until eternity… Boise State is NOT the best team in college football…undefeated or not. They are also NOT the second best either. They are very good but NOT the best. It seems like it is getting to the point where Boise State is asking everybody to pity them, so they can either force a playoffs or be considered for the National Championship. But there are a lot of glaring problems with that.

First off, their schedule.

I said months ago and I say again, if you want to BE a champion, play a schedule like one. BSU can’t help the WAC schedule, but they CAN help games like UC Davis and Miami Ohio….BSU knew they needed to play a tougher schedule than that, and they choose not to. That’s their fault. Consider folks, TCU right now has a strong upper hand over Boise State for the Non-BCS team in the big bowls. And rightly so.

IF Boise State had scheduled maybe Colorado or some Big 12 team instead of UC Davis, and maybe Minnesota or Illinois instead of Miami OH, this would seem a stronger schedule. It is that strength of schedule that is hurting them. And don’t tell me that a perfect record is a worth a title shot alone…does ANYBODY remember Ball State from last year? Weren’t they like 12-0…what happened to them?

I thought so.

Second, the media keeps talking about “BCS Busters”. Technically that term isn’t accurate. The NCAA came up with 5 bowls, one being the National Championship, the other 4 available to the best of the BCS conferences, and a guaranteed slot for one of the other conferences that performs well. This means that there is a slot for a team like TCU and/or Boise State…meaning you are not BUSTING in anything. You have permission to enter IF you qualify. This year, at this very moment, TCU qualifies…and so does Boise State.

So IF these teams have qualified, they are not “Busting” in anything. Last night ESPN had the WAC Commissioner during the Boise State/Utah State game to try to get him to plead his case for Boise State. Personally I saw no need for him to do that, in my opinion, Boise State is CLEARLY in, if they are the #6 team in the nation. They WILL get a BCS bowl, but why was the guys for ESPN trying to create a controversy that they MIGHT not get in. This is foolishness and ignorance created by ESPN to stir the pot.

The WAC Commissioner made a point that Boise State ought to be considered because they demonstrated that the fans can travel, as in the case to the Fiesta Bowl… now folks, that was in Arizona, right? Check your maps and see how far Boise State is from Arizona….

That isn’t really saying so much, is it?

The selling point here seemed to be that Boise State can travel anywhere…I disagree. Remember folks, these bowls want teams that travel VERY well, or teams closer to the bowl. For that reason, I just can’t see Boise State in any circumstances going to the Orange Bowl…if I was a member of the Orange Bowl committee, I am just not convinced that they can travel in large numbers from Boise to Florida. Besides, I also think they deserve a better game than against Georgia Tech, you’d like to pit BSU against another undefeated team, right?

As it stands right now, before the games start, we can fairly assume that the Florida/Alabama winner will play Texas in the National Championship. Let’s just assume it will be Florida for the sake of argument. That means the National Championship is set, leaving the other 4 bowls.

We know the Rose Bowl will punk out and get their traditional teams, in this case the Pac 10 vs. Big 10. At this moment it looks like Oregon/Ohio State. So to this point, you have your SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and Pac 10 satisfied.

The Orange Bowl has a contractual commitment to the ACC, so Georgia Tech goes there. That makes 5 slots filled. This leaves the last 5 slots to Cincinnati as the Big East Champs, (at this point in time), TCU, Boise State, Alabama and one other team.

If it goes as I think it can, I think the Sugar Bowl will take Alabama, because it is closer to home. The Fiesta Bowl COULD take TCU and Boise State…but this could be a problem because they played last year… a repeat might not sell as well. So it might be hip for the Fiesta Bowl to take Cincinnati and TCU, and hope that Cincinnati can travel to the desert.

This could make a Sugar Bowl matchup with Alabama and Boise State, which would be interesting, leaving one slot open for the Orange Bowl. This brings in two other teams, LSU and Pittsburgh. Either could work, but if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati, then LSU could be the obvious choice, also being a little closer to Florida. After all the fans of LSU are familiar with Florida having played the Gators anyway….Pittsburgh could say the same about playing South Florida.

So in all this, not once has Boise State been excluded from the BCS Bowls. They are in at this moment, and squarely in. I think the Fiesta Bowl might not take them to play TCU because it is a show we have seen before, so Boise State COULD be snubbed from there to the Sugar Bowl…but I gotta tell ya, that sounds like a good bowl to me, an Alabama/Boise State game.

So all this yapping about ESPN trying to champion a cause…come on you guys, get off that. You don’t need to make a case for BSU, they are in the BCS. Stop creating the news, and just report it!

Auburn’s #93 reminds you to wash before sampling.

• Mike Bobo is still coaching up Joe Cox.
• How legends are born:  on Israel Troupe’s TD catch, Cox didn’t realize Troupe was even in the game until the play fake on the throw.
• The long knives come out for Mark Mangino.
• Bob Stoops says “there’s nothing to talk about” regarding that Notre Dame job (which doesn’t exist yet, technically speaking), but the press keeps wanting to talk about it anyway.
• Ivan Maisel is the latest with the this-season-is-boring meme, but Stewart Mandel wonders why people aren’t paying more attention to what’s going on in the crazy Pac-10.
• Oh, what a tangled web we weave when we mix politics and football, at least in Florida, where a supporter of Charlie Crist was busy holding a fundraiser for Louisiana’s governor before last year’s Florida-LSU game, and where Crist himself is making a pitch for Bobby Bowden.
• Pass a blood alcohol test to attend a Minnesota game?  Yep.

So exactly how bad are things going for Southern Cal?  Matt Hinton lays out a compelling case for these being the worst of times for Pete Carroll, but, honestly, I think this story tells you all you need to know:

When Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll met at midfield after Stanford completed its 55-21 defenestration of USC here Saturday, their conversation was brief, pointed and seemingly unsatisfying. “What’s your deal? What’s your deal?” Carroll said, according to two sources near enough to hear. “What’s your deal?” Harbaugh retorted, and that was that. Now there’s the brevity of wit for you. It is also evidence of what will be a lingering dislike-a-thon between the two men, punctuated by Harbaugh’s impish yet gratuitous two-point conversion attempt after Stanford’s seventh – yes, seventh – touchdown. It looked like what it was, Harbaugh putting a knee in Carroll’s exposed coaching nethers.

When the nerd is kicking sand in the face of the bully and the bully remains helpless, that’s a pretty good indication of how far and how fast things have fallen for USC this season.

Okay, Dawg fans, we’ve certainly done our share of fretting over Martinez, Bobo, Cox, directional kicking and recruiting of late… wanna see how the other half lives?

Here’s a taste of other programs’ tears from yesterday:

• Southern Cal. Pete Carroll says Stanford has better players than his team does.
• Michigan.

Michigan (5-6, 1-6 Big Ten) is the new Northwestern — or at least an 1980s version of Northwestern. Michigan is the team you look forward to playing — a team you want to schedule for homecoming.

Since Rodriguez stepped on campus, the Wolverines are 8-15 overall and 3-13 in the Big Ten. They have yet to win a game against a Division I opponent in November.

• Tennessee. Sure, the puns were easy this week.  But UT defenders were giving Dexter McCluster lip about his size?   Dude rushes for the all-time mark against your program, all you should be saying is “sir”.
• Notre Dame. How can you not wrap things up with the Irish?  With the loss yesterday, Weis continues to pad an impressive resume.

… Weis has a 35-24 record well into this fifth year. Another loss for Weis and his winning percentage will be the same as his two predecessors, Bob Davie and Ty Willingham (.583), who were both dismissed before the end of their contracts.

Weis has lost seven straight games to Top 10 teams and is 1-10 against teams that finished the season in the Top 25. He has never beaten a team that finished with fewer than four losses…

Boise State issued an open challenge to the top teams in the country, yet no one is biting. Neal and Kyle discuss the pros and cons of playing the Broncos.

My NEW BCS Top 8

I know the real BCS scores are out, and right now if you are an undefeated team, you are on that top 10 list easily, but there are also a few one-loss teams that are making a statement to try to get to that BCS Championship.

As I speak there are still technically MANY teams that can fight for that Championship game. To be truthful, at this moment if you have one loss, you are still in the mix IF you are in a BCS conference.

For example, from the ACC there is still Georgia Tech with one loss. You have Pittsburgh with one loss from the Big East, and Penn State from the Big 10. LSU still has one loss in the SEC, while Oregon remains with only one loss from the first game of their season. And although they are not a BCS Conference, I give Utah a nod too because the Mountain West Conference is as tough as most of the BCS conferences this year.

But because Oregon defeated USC in a major game, I would, at least for the moment, make them the best one loss team in the nation, and include them in my list of the top 8…this is temporary, because I have not run other teams through my NEW BCS formula. I only did the 7 undefeated teams and Oregon. So for the moment, I have my top 8 teams, based on my formula.

#8 Oregon (291 points): This is premature, because I have not run the other one loss teams through my formula, but I will give them the TEMPORARY benefit of the doubt for this spot because they knocked off USC, which was a major win. But because they have played a lot of the bottom feeders of the Pac-10, this could be with mixed reviews.

#7 Boise State (300 points): You see here how a BCS team with one loss is almost as good as a team from a weak conference like Boise State? To their credit, they have won every game, including beating Oregon, but when your WAC schedule turns weak as water, there isn’t much respect that one can give over the other teams. Beating one great team is awesome, but to be a BCS Champ, you gotta beat more than one a year.

#6 Cincinnati (303 points): Only 3 points make the difference between Cincinnati and Boise State, and the strength of schedule favors Cincinnati. Granted, both teams are seen as underdogs, but if the Bearcats can get that big game with Pittsburgh without them losing another game, it would clearly validate them over Boise State…still gotta win to get there though.

#5 TCU (311 points): TCU to me is coming out of a better and stronger conference at the moment than Cincinnati. Having Utah, BYU and Air Force makes a pretty tough conference, not to take anything away from the Big East. But the formula also shows that this TCU team has a very good defense, and they do have 2 quality wins over top 25 teams, as opposed to one by Boise State or Cincinnati.

#4 Florida (326 points): The difference between Florida and the two teams above them is only 5 points…this is razor thin. But you can easily guess one of those teams above Florida, and if both go undefeated, they would meet in the SEC Championship… as I said on other blogs, this is a problem that will solve itself.

#3 Alabama (331 points): Alabama is by my stats the best defensive team on the list, and this is what helped them lock in this spot. But some wonder how good this team is, and we will learn everything this weekend when LSU plays Alabama. If they get by LSU, we expect a date with Florida in the SEC Championships. Few will argue that the winner goes to the BCS Championship.

#2 Texas (332 points): Slimmest of margins make Texas almost a shoe in for the BCS Championship. The Big 12 isn’t as dangerous as it was last year, and Texas has no equal. The next few games could be a walk in the park, but the Longhorns have to be careful not to slip up on games they are favored to win. Texas gets a bonus game in the Big 12 Championship, which if they win should remove any doubt as to them being either the best, or second best, in the nation.

#1 Iowa (342 points): Many wonder if Iowa could squeeze in the BCS if they go undefeated, and my formula has them as the best team in the nation…BUT there is an exception here. Iowa is the only team in this list with 9 games and 9 wins. That extra game gives them many more points above anyone with 8 wins. As you can see, they have 11 points more than Texas, who is number 2. But a couple of weeks ago when I started doing this, Iowa had about a 40 point lead, having played one more game than anybody else. What this may be showing is that as the season goes on, we learn the true strength of Iowa in that even after 9 wins, their hold on the number 1 spot is very small…and apparently shrinking.

So if the season ended now, one might assume that I am saying that Iowa and Texas plays in the National Championship…not really. Remember, Iowa has played more games at this point than anybody else, and is benefiting from that advantage. All things being equal, it seems to boil back down to Texas vs. the likely winner of the Alabama/Florida SEC championship …but that is only if Alabama gets by LSU.

And what if Iowa beats Ohio State?

What if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh?

So many questions…but all will be told in time….

At this point most ASU fans have already began beating the “wait til next year drum”. Next year will be a special year for ASU because the defense will be a year older Sullivan and Nance will be gone. The Sun Devils will be able to realize the promise of Erickson’s great and talented recruiting efforts.

Problem is Erickson’s recruiting efforts have only worked out on one side of the ball and that’s on defense. The offensive line will have to thankfully replace two god awful offensive tackles, Shawn Lauvao and Tom Njunge. Don’t fooll yourself either, Lauvao is as bad as any OT that ASU has had in the last 20 years. All the promise of moving the senior out to the left side blew up in a pile of cold hard reality long ago. A good offensive tackle Lauvao is not, not even close.

Behind him? Well apparently Evan Finkenberg and Kyle Johnson represent the future, but the coaching staff doesn’t have enough confidence in these two. This much is apparent by how hard they’re recruiting two four-star offensive tackle prospects from the JUCO ranks.

Roszell Gayden is the player where the hope for a successful 2010 season resides. A 6-foot-7 310-pound behmoth who would provide an instant anchor at the LT position for the Sun Devils and give whomever the starting QB is next year a fighting chance. Gayden is the type of player this desperately needs, but most certainly won’t get.

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the teams also in the mix for Gayden along with Oregon and Cal. Three teams the Sun Devils have typically had no chance against when it comes to head to head recruiting match ups for major players like this.

So the hopes for next season ride on one player, oh but it goes beyond just the lack of a good offensive tackle. It spills over into the skill positions as well. Who is the play maker at WR? Gerrell Robinson shows the most promise but he drops as many footballs as he catches. After Robinson it’s a group of unproven players who have failed to stand out at any point during this season.

Then there’s the defense where a play maker at CB doesn’t exist nor does a pass rusher with any sort of speed off the edge. For all the legend and hype surrounding Dean DeLeone’s 4.4 speed in the 40-yard dash from the DE position apparently that doesn’t translate to speed off the edge in pass rush situations. The recruit so highly touted by the coaching staff is another smoke screen on the level of the QB situation.

After zero pass rush you come to the lack of depth at LB. Yes Shelly Lyons, Brandon Magee and Vontaze Burfict are legit play makers who will likely man the three starting roles on the defense next year at the LB position. But if one of those three goes down with an injury the talent behind those three significantly drops off. Oliver Aaron? Derrall Anderson? Please if either of these two were half the players they have alleged to be by the main two Sun Devil sites that promote the program, we wouldn’t be talking about two younger players with less experience supplanting them.

Then there is the offensive scheme conundrum. Is ASU a shot gun zone read option scheme or are they a shot-gun spread passing attack? Running out of the shot gun with no option QB to the zone-read scheme has become all too predictable. It’s pretty idiotic that the option only has ONE option and that’s to hand the ball off to the back.

It gets even more laughable as things settle in during year three of Erickson’s tenure. We hear all the time about how Dennis Erickson prefers a mobile QB closer to a Jake Plummer type than an Andrew Walter type of QB. This was the justification for letting Nick Foles go prior to signing day here in Tempe, Erickson doesn’t want just a plain old pocket passer. He wants a dual threat manning the QB spot.

Why then are the next two QBs most likely to start pure pocket passers? Transfer Steven Threet, and incoming freshman Pete Thomas are both pure pocket passer QBs which will severely limit the option of this shot gun spread option attack. Neither one of these players represents a versatile threat that Erickson claims he was trying to build into the program. In my opinion this constitutes another lie in a long line of smoke blowing bull shit statements that Erickson has made. Given the collective I.Q. level of most Sun Devil fans however, this type of statement and situation goes unnoticed same with the B.S. about Dean DeLeone.

So this is where this program stands after three years of Erickson style football and a clueless A.D. who consistently fails to hold her head football coach accountable for any of his mistakes or B.S. statements. No sign or any future sign of an offensive attack with no real offensive linemen in the wings. No play makers at the wide receiver position, and an offensive scheme in place that doesn’t fit the talents of the players most likely to start within that scheme.

None of this makes sense, but the hope will rise again this off-season. Why? Because if there is one thing Erickson knows how to do it’s bull shit a fan base. Erickson is the people person Dirk Koetter was not, Erickson is a crowd pleaser and a funny guy and “know how to work a room”. He will do a great job of schmoozing the alumni and fan base, because at his age and with his experience that seems to be the only thing left that he is good….shoveling bull shit over the real problems that exist in this program.

The HORROR of College Football

Halloween is upon us, and with it comes the fear that over 100 teams fear to embrace…that there are guarantees in life…one is the demise of a season.

And all teams choose to play a game…much like Jigsaw imposes on his victims…knowing that few, if any are designed to succeed.

And so most fail.

Halloween brings the horror already realized, and the horrors of those realized on All Saints Day, and yet it also delays the feared ending of some, where their seasons come to a quick and correct ending…with no sequel in sight.

This season was nothing but a ruse to many teams, knowing that there are many teams designed to fail…to be fodder, for the greater cause. But let us take a moment to look at this horror movie and sort out the victims….for we know there will be many.

If there is a real Camp Crystal Lake, it will indeed resemble the ACC. As many contenders as sequels, and a body count to match. The ACC continues to slay one another as mindlessly as the next batch of campers find their way to the lake, only to discover too late that their fate was already charted. The ACC had a chance to produce a “Jason” with Virginia Tech, but failed miserably…but word has it that Georgia Tech stands hidden in the forest, with a certain hockey mask.

Can we believe that THIS is the Jason the ACC needs to put fear in the BCS? We have seen this before, and lately the ACC has not put terror in any other conference. And victims this year seemed to have claimed Florida State, Clemson and Wake Forest, while Duke, NC State and Maryland lie at the bottom of the murky swamp.

Shall we fear Jason Yellow Jacket…or shall we look for another?

Haddonfield, seems to be a town hiding a terrible secret…much like that of the Big 10. On that fateful day, when Michael Myers began his terror, few knew, nor read the signs of what would happen, save only Dr. Loomis. Is this any different this year, with Iowa standing at the door of the BCS Championship? The mission for Myers was simple, to find and eradicate his family…which led to a long chase to find his sister… and dispose of her.

How similar can this be of Iowa and the last several games against Penn State, where there has been a grand and epic struggle, only to end in sad endings? But again, Iowa has hunted their quarry and defeated Penn State, but Ohio State may be the only thing keeping them from a BCS Championship. But Ohio State is flawed, much like the aged Dr. Loomis, who did all he could to thwart the actions of Myers. Can Ohio State prevent Iowa from their goal, or will Iowa take for granted the other “lesser” teams, and lose a chance at a most valued prize. Only Illinois has fallen under, as many other teams in the Big 10 can make a challenge. There are more sequels to come.

Beware if there is a moon out on Halloween night, for you never know who will change to a beastly werewolf…such is my warning to the Big 12. Was it not last year where at least 7 quarterbacks proved that they were NFL ready? Was there not six teams that were ranked in the top 25 through much of the year? But this year, not much noise has been made of the conference outside of Texas…and they look exposed.

Has the conference found silver bullets to destroy the Texas Werewolf? You DO know that silver can destroy a werewolf…just as one loss could be a deadly force against Texas’ bid to the BCS. But we have been fooled several times by their changes…who informed us that Colorado would be any better than last year…we were fools to buy that.

And who said that Nebraska was the fear of the town…nay, I saw no claws, fangs or body hair resembling a werewolf on these Huskers…I only saw mere men fall by the wayside. We have however, seen a great man fall in Oklahoma, and with it also went the dreams of the season. It would seem that only Oklahoma State remain to challenge Texas, and by doing such we shall see by the light of the full moon who is REALLY a werewolf… and who is not.

The house of Count Dracula may seem large, but only eight rooms are being used, and one may well be Count Dracula himself. From the grave the Big East was counted as nothing, as a slain evil, never to return. In fact, the beginning of the season there were no Big East teams ranked. Yet from the grave has risen one who bears the marks of Vlad Dracul…and yet there seems to be another.

Cincinnati at this moment is undefeated, and should they run the table, may say they should be in the BCS… but has there been enough “blood” sacrificed to validate this? Who has this team beaten that qualifies this as THE Count…rather than some other vampire who serves another?

Some say Pittsburgh holds the strings, and controls the scene from afar in the conference, and it is only a matter of time before the two meet…to settle once and for all who is the REAL Dracula. Yet consider this…is there a Val Helsing in the mists…. A West Virginia…or maybe a South Florida? Alas, it may well not be West Virginia, as news travels that they were recently slain by South Florida. It would then seem that either Cincinnati OR Pittsburgh is then the true Dracula…but are either strong enough to force themselves into the BCS?

A classic John Carpenter movie, “The Fog”, was about a curse that was laid upon a hapless town on the 100th anniversary of the founding of their town….some might say there is such a “fog” or even “curse” upon the SEC in the recent rumors of less than professional officiating.

More than once has such wickedness cost a team a win, one that Georgia can clearly testify to. In the movie, the curse came because the town lied to a ship of lepers that wanted to make a home near their town, in exchange for much gold. The townsfolk swore on the deal…took the gold…but destroyed the lepers…thus the curse 100 years later.

Victims of greed we all can be of times, but at the expense of other teams in the SEC? Some say a curse will fall upon the SEC, as some say that the poor officiating was used in conspiracy to promote Florida and Alabama, to ensure a SEC remain in the BCS hunt. Others say there is a curse on the SEC for their apparent lack of hiring African American coaches…only ONE in their history…and yet they benefit so greatly from African American players….

What is in the fog of the SEC…most see Florida, maybe Alabama. I have heard some say it was Ole Miss, but I see no truth in that. There were rumors that Tennessee had risen from the depths of the sunken ship and reclaimed what was rightly theirs…we ALMOST saw that at the hands of Alabama, but the Crimson Tide bare escaped with their lives. It leads me to believe they won’t live much longer at that rate. But one could say the same for Florida as well….

There may well be an Elm Street in every state, but the Pac-10 stares at fear tangible in that they now must pray for access to the BCS Championship. With several teams out of BCS Conferences that are perfect, the PAC-10 has no hope of jumping over the likes of a perfect Florida, or Alabama or Texas. And with the East Coast Bias, most people never see these Pac-10 teams unless they play earlier in the day. Out of sight, out of mind…unless you are Freddy Krueger.

In the famed series of movies, the creature of the night would appear in a victim’s nightmare and claim them for his own…the Pac-10 would have to perform similar feats to put fear in the BCS, and force the nation to pay attention to them.

For on Halloween there will be a Nightmare on Elm Street when USC plays against Oregon, and everything is on the line. Both teams have one loss, and neither can afford another. Yet a game of this importance would certainly propel the winner into a greater chance of a BCS shot, right? It is critical that a Duck or Trojan becomes the nightmare of the BCS, and may have to make horrid work of their opponent to put fear in the voters of the polls. Trust me, you don’t want to sleep when this game comes on… especially those on the east coast.

We have discovered that Sleepy Hollow is more than a legend, it is a real place… the name has changed to the Mountain West Conference, and there have been rumors of not one…not two…but possibly THREE Headless horsemen roaming about.

I once heard there may have even been a fourth from the Air Force, but I am being told that this is not so true. It has been more confirmed that those Headless Horsemen come from TCU, Utah and BYU…U know what I mean by that…

These teams seek that which they have lost…respect. For their competitive conference, few give them a chance to actually be in the BCS, even if one goes undefeated. At this moment it remains to be only TCU, as both BYU and Utah have lost their heads earlier in the year. But because it was early, there is a chance…however slight, to get it back.

Will anyone take notice of the Mountain West Horseman as he rides through the night, looking for another victim? How many more will they have to defeat before the BCS acknowledges them as a real threat to the BCS?

And what is this I hear of this Hunchback that clamors about being better than anybody else? Who told this creature that they were the equal of the other teams simply because they have a nice record? Their best win so far this year was at home to Boston College, having lost games to USC and Michigan. Do not try to scare me with such stories from Notre Dame….win games against TOUGH opponents before you try to scare us.

And I have seen the parts being built for this Frankenstein they call Boise State. A powerful creature, with indeed a history of doing damage…but many say the parts are made of cheap material. A weak schedule with only ONE good win makes this a creature with great potential, but very flawed. We can see Boise State as much a contender to the BCS now as we can consider Frankenstein as equal to a human. Until Boise State schedules more quality opponents, we will continue to shun Boise State as the village shunned Frankenstein…which lead to his demise at the end.

I warn you, Halloween will bring many sad tidings for many. For some, the realization that there is no post season, for some, the realization that there is no conference championship, and for others, no BCS Bowl game. Hearts will be broken, spirits will be split…dreams will be shattered in the faces of tens of thousands.

There will be…losers….

(what did you think I was gonna say…it’s all in fun!)

Happy Halloween all, may your favorite team win!

The NEW BCS, OCT 29th version

The top 15

Again, if you have not read my blogs before, jump back a few and see how I came up with these numbers. It is NOT etched in stone but give some sense of validity rather than just having a bunch of dudes picking teams.

My NEW BCS is based on rewarding points for factors of the game, the most important being WINNING. I give 20 points for every game a team wins. But I award bonus points for other factors, such as winning at home, winning conference games, winning by certain amounts and so forth. I also award…or penalize a team if the teams on their schedule are above .500, even or below. I penalize teams that play a non Division I foe, whether they win OR lose.

Again, you’ll have to jump back to find the posts on what I am talking about, if you want I can go over it again in my next blog to explain some things. But until then, let’s count down my top 15:

#15 Utah 187 points: Folks, I gotta tell ya, the schedule Utah has played thus far is VERY poor, it is hard to put them in the ranks of the top 10 when more of their teams have losing records than anybody else. This is a heavy penalty that shows a weak strength of schedule. But there is still time to rise in the ranks, since the Mountain West is indeed a good conference this year.

#14 Virginia Tech 233 points: Two losses virtually destroys any chance to the BCS, and we all thought VA Tech was all that too. Consider this folks, this team has two losses, and still is better than Utah…if the Hokies had won one of those two games, they could easily have been in the top 10.

#13 Oklahoma State 234 points: That embarrassing loss to Houston must still be like mud in their face, but the difference between Oklahoma State and a top 10 is actually about 30 points. It’s just harder to compete at this moment with teams with 7 wins under their belt, so this could even out eventually.

#12 Oregon 235 points: This is odd because for a team with 1 loss, I have them outside the top 10. Why? Their strength of schedule takes some punch out of what they have done, although they have defeated two top 15 ranked teams. If you are looking at 6 win teams, this is one of the best, but compared to the undefeated teams, they fall behind a bit. Still plenty of time to get in the mix though.

#11 USC 261 points: Interesting, since they play this weekend against one another. Of my elite teams, I actually had USC ranked at the bottom at this period of time. This was out of my elite 8 teams, but after adding a few more teams on, I had to slide USC down even further. The margin of difference is slim, in fact they missed my top 10 by only 4 points, meaning this is by no means the end of the judgment.

#10 Cincinnati 265 points: This one is funny because I had them ranked much higher when I did the elite teams. But what may be showing is that even with a perfect record, Cincinnati still has to prove some things. Beating South Florida was their only mark, and it was a bottom 25 team. They need to run the tables to get real consideration and votes of confidence to play in that BCS Championship.

#9 TCU 271 points. Between ranks 6-11 only about 16 points separate these teams, meaning these are very close rankings. TCU has an advantage of 7 wins, but very slightly higher quality of wins and a good defense gives them some points as well. IF TCU runs the tables…are they for real?

#8 Penn State 273 points: The loss to Iowa hurts big time to Penn State, but they are only a handful of points off some better teams. Penn State can still make a game of this, if they can run the tables, but they would have to hope that Iowa loses a couple of times. Is it possible….who knows, but Penn State with a few more wins will be making a strong case for a one loss team.

#7 Pittsburgh 274 points: We see that this team is only one point better than Penn State, but that loss to NC State may have ruined a magical season. Like Cincinnati, this team suffers from a weaker schedule that could sooner catch up to them. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are rooting for one another, so that when they play, it will mean much more than just two Big East teams playing one another…it could lead to a BCS Championship.

#6 Boise State 277 points: Even at 7-0 this team could be in trouble for slipping further down in the rankings. Even if Boise State continues to win, the quality of their wins against a weaker schedule could count against them…it clearly is the case with Utah, it could be the same for Boise State. So again, is wins the ONLY thing that counts? Nope, not if you want to be a champion.

#5 Florida 284 points: In light of the SEC officials and stuff going on, and with Florida playing with injured players, and the close games, this is still the team to beat. I have this team here because they are clearly one of the best teams, but now some wonder about the true strength of the SEC, if officials are playing to the “better teams”. Keep in mind that a couple of the teams ahead of Florida have an extra game under their belt, so it should all even out in the wash.

#4 Georgia Tech 287 points: This one is a BIG surprise to me folks, and considering how the ACC beats each other up, I don’t see this standing long, but to this point I think Georgia Tech is one of the best teams in the nation. If you cannot stop their triple option, you will lose. I thought for sure that this was a simplistic strategy that was years out of date, but Georgia Tech is proving that if teams don’t study for it, they will get beat by it. Georgia Tech in the BCS Championship? I think it is still too early, but don’t completely rule that out.

#2 Iowa 310 points: Now understand, Iowa is here because YES they have a perfect record, but also because they have one more game ahead of most other teams. That one game pulls a lot of points. They are only about 12 points ahead of Georgia Tech and Texas, so as those teams even out their schedule, it will tell us the true story. Iowa still has Ohio State on the schedule, which many circle as THE key game for the entire Big 10…if Iowa wins that…it will create some REAL controversy for the BCS Championships.

#1 Alabama 326 points: Everything I said about Iowa…goes for Alabama. They have an extra game ahead of the other teams, and they came within a shade of losing to Tennessee. Is this team REALLY as good as they say. I wasn’t too convinced last year, and they have the advantage of several good home game wins, and a schedule that at the moment is pretty tough, but when things shake out, as they usually do, I am not too sure this team will stay where it is. But for now, they are here.

So, those are my NEW BCS top 15, with Virginia Tech playing UNC tonight, we shall see if that changes any. A win for Virginia Tech could vault them close to the top 10…who knows?

With a victory over the Trojans coupled with a loss from Cincinnati, TCU or Iowa, I can see the Ducks jumping into the top five. But then more importantly down the road, a late loss from Florida and Alabama could push the Ducks into a title shot due to strength of schedule. The Ducks can jump ahead of the Boise State because the Broncos have no real opposition challenging them in the WAC conference; because LSU is good but not good enough; and because Texas is having issues. There is a wonderful shot of the Ducks making a run to be in the national title game.After a crushing victory over what was supposed to be a competitive Washington Husky team, the Oregon Ducks have finally crawled their way back into the BCS top ten. I will make a bold statement, one that may cause a bit of controversy (if anybody read this). The Oregon Ducks will be playing in the Citi BCS National Championship on January 7, 2010. For this to happen, many things must take place. First, the current Week 2  BCS Standings.

Week 9/BCS Week 3–Condensed Predictions

Oregon will beat USC by two touchdowns, 35-21. Texas loses at Oklahoma State. The Oregon victory thrusts them forward in the polls to #6, jumping Cincinnati and Boise St. due to poor conferences.

Support for Oregon jumping from #10-#6.

• USC and Texas lose. Oregon Ducks up to #8.
• .0155 BCS points separate #6 and #8. A victory over #4 USC trumps victories over both Syracuse (3-4) and San Jose St. (1-5), Cincinnati and Boise St.’s respective opponents.  .0155 is a whisper of difference in the BCS Standings.

Week 9 Standings

MORE PREDICTIONS WILL BE ADDED THIS WEEK, HOPEFULLY. AT THE MERCY OF THREE MIDTERMS…(BIO, OCHEM, ANTH.)

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Alright, I got tired of writing this. Check this out, it spells it out well… from http://www.advocate-online.net/103009/S_column.php

With a victory over the Trojans coupled with a loss from Cincinnati, TCU or Iowa, I can see the Ducks jumping into the top five. But then more importantly down the road, a late loss from Florida and Alabama could push the Ducks into a title shot due to strength of schedule. The Ducks can jump ahead of the Boise State because the Broncos have no real opposition challenging them in the WAC conference; because LSU is good but not good enough; and because Texas is having issues. There is a wonderful shot of the Ducks making a run to be in the national title game.