In the book Moneyball Paul Depodesta looked at OPS, and said it is not a good stat because it implies that On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage are of them same value, when they are not, so when does Slugging Percentage overrule On-Base Percentage?

A team can get three singles in one inning, and then hit into a triple play, making your On-Base Percentage .750, and your Slugging Percentage is 1.333, but you have not scored, but let’s put Triple Plays aside.

How many ways can you score one run in one inning without making an out? (Using station to station baserunning)

• four singles
• one home run
• two doubles
• a triple and a single
• a single and a triple

So all of these are On-Base Percentages of 1.000, and assorted Slugging Percentages of 1.000, 4.000, 2.000, and the final two are also 2.000.  So what is the minimum?

After some research, I found that the minimum was somewhere below .250, meaning that OBP will ALWAYS overrule Slugging Percentage. The closest man to the magic number is Jason Kendall, who is Slugging .304.

Hoe kon het zijn dat de Oakland Athletics tussen 2000 en 2003 met een van de laagste budgetten toch -in totaal- de meeste overwinningen in het reguliere seizoen konden halen? Hoe konden de clubs met de grootste budgetten niet de prijs-kwaliteit verhouding halen, die de A’s wel haalden? Dat zijn vragen die Michael Lewis in het boek Moneyball beantwoordt.

Billy Bean is in 1980 een getalenteerd atleet. Billy is lang, breed, sterk en snel. Hij lijkt geknipt voor een geweldige sportcarrière. Scouts zijn natuurlijk lyrisch over hem. En waarom ook niet? Hij laat geweldige resultaten op het veld zien. De New York Mets happen toe en contracteren Billy, die eigenlijk naar de universiteit wil om te leren.

Fiasco

De carrière van Billy is teleurstellend. Bij elke club komt hij op de bank terecht. En als hij dan eens aan slag is probeert Billy niet te falen. Hij slaat naar elke bal die in de buurt van de slagzone komt en is vaak heel makkelijk uit te vangen of te gooien. Terug in de dug-out zijn teamgenoten als de dood voor Billy. Hij slaat alles wat in zijn buurt komt aan gort. Hij kan niet tegen zijn verlies. Billy speelt uiteindelijk 148 wedstrijden, waarin hij maar 3 homeruns slaat.

Harvard

In 1989 besluit hij te stoppen als speler en als scout aan de slag te gaan bij zijn huidige team, de Oakland A’s. Hij wil bewijzen wat hij dan eigenlijk al weet: de scouts snappen er niet zo veel van. Hij is zelf de grootste vergissing en en een schoolvoorbeeld van hoe het niet moet. Hij krijgt echt de kans om zich te bewijzen als hij in 1998 General Manager wordt bij de A’s. Het eerste wat hij doet is Paul DePodesta inhuren. DePodesta is afgestudeerd aan Harvard en hij heeft zich gespecialiseerd in statistieken.

Laptop

De scouts zijn niet zo blij met DePodesta, want hij tovert allemaal namen uit zijn laptop, die voor de A’s de moeite waard zouden moeten zijn. De ene na de andere dikke, raar kijkende, muf ruikende en te slimme speler staan bovenaan het lijstje op de laptop van DePodesta. Billy volgt DePodesta en de laptop blind en de spelers die de A’s contracteren zijn vaak zo onbekend, dat ze voor een schijntje te contracteren zijn.

Giambi

Als sterspeler Jason Giambi in de winter van 2001 aan het einde van zijn contract is peinzen de A’s er niet over om de 120 miljoen dollar voor zeven jaar neer te tellen, wat de New York Yankees dat jaar doen. Ook Johnny Damon (Boston Red Sox, 32 milj.in 4 jaar) en Jason Isringhausen (St. Louis Cardinals, 28 milj. in vier jaar) verlaten de A’s dat jaar voor het grote geld. Die drie spelers verdienen het jaar daarop bij elkaar vijf miljoen minder dan alle spelers van de A’s bij elkaar. De Yankees winnen in 2002 uiteindelijk 103 wedstrijden. De A’s ook.

In het boek Moneyball legt Michael Lewis in iets meer dan driehonderd bladzijden uit waar een goedkoop team goed in kan zijn. Het boek staat vol met antihelden, als Scott Hatteberg en Chad Bradford, die bij de A’s opeens floreren. Billy Beane wordt op onnavolgbare wijze neergezet als geniale neuroot, die niet tegen zijn verlies kan.

Als je wat van honkbal wil snappen is dit boek verplichte kost. Het geeft een goed inzicht achter de schermen bij de Oakland Athletics. Al met al is het boek zeer leesbaar. Ook voor de leek.

Rarely do we see Major League Baseball Executives with their own blogs, even rarer is having them opine on trades recently made.  Here Paul DePodesta outlines his thoughts on trading Jake Peavy to the White Sox.

Today, just seconds before the 1pm pacific trading deadline, we acquired LHP Clayton Richard, LHP Aaron Poreda, RHP Adam Russell, and RHP Dexter Carter from the White Sox for RHP Jake Peavy. The final minutes were quite a whirlwind, but in the end it got done.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each guy:

Clayton Richard – A 25 year old, 6′5″ left-hander out of the University of Michigan, Clayton has spent the entire 2009 season in the Majors with the White Sox. Between 14 starts and 12 relief appearances he has compiled a 4.65 ERA in 89 innings. Particularly tough on left-handed hitters, Clayton has limited them to a .643 ops over his 137 innings in the big leagues. A good strike thrower who also gets more than his share of groundballs, Clayton will move right into our rotation in San Diego.

Aaron Poreda – The first round pick of the White Sox in 2007, Aaron made his Major League debut earlier this season out of the bullpen for the Sox. However, he had spent essentially his entire minor league career as a starter, and that’s how we see him fitting with us in the long term. A power left-hander at 6′6″, 240 lbs, Aaron has thrown up to 96 mph and generally sits in the 93-94 range. Like Clayton Richard, Aaron is a good strike thrower who also generates groundballs. Over the course of this season in the minors (AA and AAA) he has a 2.54 ERA with 78 k’s in 74.1 innings. He’ll be reporting to AAA Portland where he’ll be part of that rotation.

Adam Russell – At 6′8″, 250 lbs and possessing a fastball that runs as high as 97 mph, Adam can be an intimidating presence on the mound. Moved to the bullpen full time in 2008, Adam has split the past two seasons between AAA and the ML (3.07 ERA in AAA and a 5.19 ERA in the ML in 26ip). Like Poreda, he’ll report to Portland where he’ll go into the bullpen to complete a trio of potential back end bullpen types with 96-97 mph fastballs – Webb, DeLaCruz, and Russell.

Dexter Carter – A 13th round pick in 2008 out of Old Dominion, Dexter is currently leading the South Atlantic League in strikeouts with 143 in 118 ip (meanwhile, our own Simon Castro is leading the Midwest League, the other A league, in k’s). Dexter is 6′6″, 200 lbs and has a fastball that runs anywhere between 87 and 93 mph. So far as a professional he has a combined 2.80 ERA in 184 innings with with 147 hits and 57 walks allowed while striking out 232. Not a bad start to a career.

In summary, we needed a frontcourt to be able to compete against some of our 2009 draftees.

In all seriousness, we’re very excited about the return here. In the past week we’ve added four young pitchers with Major League experience and power arms (Gallagher, Richard, Poreda, and Russell). In trading someone like Jake, we did not want to have to take all A-ball prospects who inevitably carry high risk and don’t show up in Petco for years to come (if they do at all). Instead, we have guys who can contribute either immediately or very soon and who have the chance to be part of our Club for many years going forward. We may have to reload, but that doesn’t mean we have to take years to do it.

We need look no further than 2009 to illustrate just how important starting pitching and particularly depth in starting pitching is to winning in the Major Leagues and especially in Petco (we’re currently second to last in the NL in ERA for starters). The playoff caliber clubs here in San Diego from 2004-2007 all had solid starting staffs, and two of them (2006 and 2007) led the NL in starter’s ERA. We need to get back there, and we believe we can.

Doing it without Jake, of course, makes it challenging. He has been nothing short of a tremendous pitcher for the Padres. We’re incredibly fortunate to have had him here, and it was a difficult decision to trade him, as I’m sure it was a difficult decision for him to approve the trade. After all, though this is a business, it is a personal one, not only for us, but also for the players, their families, and all of the fans.

That having been said, though we’re not yet all the way to where we want to be, this deal was a significant step toward giving us a better chance to win in 2010 and beyond. Our concentration of talent made us deeply vulnerable to the unexpected, so it’s important for us to build quality balance – an imperative that we’ve been aggressively pursuing and that this deal helps us achieve. We’re certainly a younger team, but we’re very excited about the potential of these players, especially as many of them (Blanks, Latos, Cabrera, etc) are beginning to show what they can do at the ML level.

It’s going to be fun to see what these guys can do.

MLB – DePodesta\’s Take on Peavy Trade

We’ve known for a while that a Moneyball movie adaptation was in the works, and that Billy Beane would be played, somehow, by Brad Pitt. Well, now thanks to Variety (via DodgerThoughts) we know who’s playing former A’s assistant GM and former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta.

Because I know that when I think of “Paul DePodesta”, I think of a singing comedian with a mop-top…

It’s true, according to Variety, which reports that the floppy-haired comic turned occasional Daily Show correspondent turned star of his own Comedy Central show turned mainstream movie actor will play razor-sharp former Billy Beane lieutenant (and current San Diego Padres exec) Paul DePodesta in Steven Soderberg’s adaptation of Michael Lewis’ seminal book, Moneyball. The picture Michael Lewis paints of DePodesta in the book is almost a caricature, with DePo rarely speaking without his head seemingly popping up from behind a computer screen loaded with stats and charts. This despite DePodesta’s far more engaging real-life persona, which includes an enjoyable (and ongoing) run as a blogger.

It’s a weird casting choice, though maybe not any more so than Brad Pitt playing the (book and) film’s star, Billy Beane. Martin, who despite his youthful appearance and overall demeanor is actually older than I am, has a short track record playing anything resembling this kind of role. Then again, he is funny and talented, and like the character he’ll be playing in the film, he does love visual aids:

Ben Casnocha today hit on a subject dear to my heart, evaluating decisions on the process that led to them not the outcome. I’ll never forget the day I first read about this in a speech given by Paul DePodesta, he repeats his message here. Bad decisions often work out ok, likewise good decisions sometimes go awry. But refining one’s process is the key to having more good outcomes than bad.

I can’t say that I’ve ever thought highly of Derek Lowe, his brilliant signing notwithstanding. As dependable as he’s been the four years he’s been here, there’s just something about the guy that I just don’t like. Nonetheless, he’s been arguably the Dodgers’ best free-agent signing of recent note. He signed a four-year, $32 million deal after being unceremoniously jettisoned by the 2004 WS Champion Red Sox — this after pitching well in the clinching games of the ALDS, ALCS, and World Series.

Former GM Paul DePodesta was 100% right about Lowe — this groundball specialist would thrive at Dodger Stadium, and even signed him to a very modest contract to boot.

Lots to love about Lowe, statistically speaking. Outside the lines, he’s been a grade-A scumbag. He divorced the mother of his children, whom he left behind on the east coast, so that he could continue his affair with former FSN West reporter Carolyn Hughes, and bemoaned (along with Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez) management’s choice to hold on to the “kids” in 2007 in lieu of trading them away for a trade-deadline rental.

Haven’t heard much of Lowe this year, which incidentally, is a contract year for him. Either he’s happy that so many of his 2004 Red Sox teammates are now Dodgers (Nomar, Manny, advisor to the GM Bill Mueller), or he knows he needs to keep his trap shut and avoid controversy considering he’s old (2009 will be his 36-year-old season) and probably still wants another multi-year deal.

That said, given the Dodgers’ offensive malaise — whole lot of change Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake did for the team — it’s surprising that he was so forgiving of the their inability to score recently. After yesterday’s loss to the 39 games under .500 Nationals, Lowe had this to say:

“I think, in this game, trying harder normally doesn’t get you anywhere, and I think that’s such a hard thing to fight,” he said. “You can’t give 110 percent. I think that’s where we are. There’s no lack of preparation, there’s no such thing as guys not trying. I think, as a collective group, sometimes you’ve got to try less to get more.

Knowing how quick everyone involved with the Dodgers has been willing to betray and blame Ethier/Kemp/Loney/Martin … I mean, their teammates for everything under the sun, it’s a little refreshing to hear Lowe not blame anyone.

In the end though, blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Ned Colletti. There’s a reason why the Dodgers are a singles-hitting team that relies heavily on a high BABIP, and will be in for epic failure when their BABIP falls as it has recently. That reason is Ned Colletti. Ned spent $57 million on Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Nomar, Jason Schmidt, and Rafael Furcal. The only one of that bunch that’s doing anything remotely productive is Andruw, and that’s solely because he’s been banished to Triple-A and not wasting a roster spot. (Okay, neither are Furcal and Schmidt).

Pierre and Nomar (not to mention Mark Sweeney, Pablo Ozuna, and Angel Berroa) continue to soak up valuable playing time, thus further delaying the advancement of players such as Delwyn Young, Chin-Lung Hu, and Ivan DeJesus — players who may actual be useful for the Dodgers.

Rather than use the money (or their minor leaguers) to acquire useful players such as Manny, or Adam Dunn, whom the Reds essentially gave away, the Dodgers waste their “stock” on retreads such as Casey Blake and Greg Maddux.

And then they cobble together a roster that has no punch aside from Kemp, Ethier, and Manny. So is it any surprise that a singles-hitting team can’t do anything other than hit singles?

I’m out at dinner tonight with some friends from MLB.com.

One checks his phone, and seeing the press release, says to me, “Brad Penny and Cory Wade to the DL.”

I reply, “no surprise on Penny. Too bad about Wade, he’s been really good. Who’d they call up?”

He says, “Eric Stults… and a former Yankee.”

Me, racking my brain for the AAA roster: “Scott Proctor? Mike Myers?”

Him: “Worse… Worcester’s own…”

Me: “Oh my god! Not Tanyon Sturtze! Really?!”

Sturtze is 37 years old, and he actually had to start his 2008 at Jacksonville this year, which is an experience I can’t even imagine for a non-rehabbing pitcher of that age. Look, we all know why he’s here; he’s another one of Joe Torre’s unexplained relief pitcher mancrushes, despite the fact that he was never even very good for the Yankees. In his 3 seasons in New York (2004-06), he was reliably below average, posting ERA’s of 5.47, 4.73, and finally 7.59 in 18 games in 2006 before being shown the door. Sturtze hasn’t been even league average since 2001, and suffered through a brutal 4-18 campaign for the 2002 Devil Rays. Last year, he didn’t even get to taste the majors. He somehow spent time at four different levels of the Atlanta system and put up a glowing 9.53 ERA. He’s at least been better than that this year with a 4.70 ERA at Jacksonville and a 4.13 at Las Vegas, but it’s like that’s very good either. Why him to be the 42nd Dodger we see this year rather than, say, Matt Riley, who’s outperforming him in AAA by a good margin? Why not Mike Myers, who had a 166 ERA+ in 55 games for the Yankees last year and is outperforming Sturtze in the minors this year? It’s not really that I think the last man in the bullpen is going to change the course of the season; it’s that, as we’ve seen with Scott Proctor and Brian Falkenborg, when Joe Torre gets one of his security blanket guys, he tends to put them into high-pressure situations no matter who else is available. And that does worry me.

Speaking of Falkenborg, former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta - now working in the Padres front office - blogs about him today:

Fortunately for Brian, he has had stints in the big leagues in each of the past five seasons with the Dodgers, Padres, and Cardinals. Brian has always had a good fastball/curveball combination, but his stuff has really exploded in the past year. Typically armed with a 91-93 mph, Brian has been regularly touching 95, 96, and even 97 mph this season out of the bullpen.
Always showing solid command along with his stuff, this year he walked just 2.1 per nine innings and struck out 10.5 per nine innings before getting the call to the big leagues. So far he had pitched just 11.2 innings in the big leagues, giving up 11 hits, four walks, and striking out nine before being placed on outright waivers.

Our scouting reports from both Chris Gwynn and Randy Smith indicate that he has become an aggressive reliever whose fastball has been overpowering at times. We’re excited to have him back in San Diego and anticipate giving him a good look between now and the end of the season.

This blog wasn’t around during the DePodesta holy wars, but if we had been, we’d have been squarely on his side (how anyone can still say that the Penny/LoDuca trade was a bad one is beyond me). But in this case? Sorry Paul. If Falkenborg really had “solid command” and stuff that “has exploded”, he probably wouldn’t have, you know, sucked so much over his career. He’s all yours. But if you want to send us Greg Maddux, that’s fine by me.

- Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness

I love the Dodgers. I love baseball. But what I hate is the archaic, stuck-in-the-mud thinking that permeates baseball management. My baseball philosophy is much more in line with forward-thinking, statistically-inclined people such as Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta, Bill James, and is featured on websites such as Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and Dodger Thoughts, among many others. Essentially, I enjoy looking for a reasonable explanation for the innumerable vagaries of baseball. I enjoy reading about those who attempt to theorize why baseball is as exciting as it is for us.

As to the title, one of my favorite ballplayers, Andy LaRoche, is currently stuck in exile in Las Vegas (the Dodgers’ Triple-A team). He was sent there on a rehab assignment after he was injured in spring training. Halfway through that rehab, the Dodgers activated him, and then optioned him to the minors, wasting 10 days of rehab and an option year for LaRoche. Meanwhile, LaRoche, one of their best power-hitting minor league prospects languishes in Triple-A while the likes of Mark Sweeney, Andruw Jones, and Jeff Kent continue to feebly hit ground balls to NL infielders. All the while, Dodger management bemoans the lack of production on the major league club.

It would seem a very simple fix. No power hitters? Call up a power hitter. Of course, Blake DeWitt’s emergence has made this less simple (DeWitt and LaRoche are both third basemen). But if you can find time to play Kent/Sweeney/Jones, then you can cut bait on any of the three and find time to play LaRoche.

I always thought that Paul DePodesta got a raw deal as the general manager of the LA Dodgers, being fired after only two seasons. A lot of his major moves look good right now in hindsight, even though the local media (Bill Plaschke) absolutely hated him for it at the time.

Well, as Larry Brown Sports found out, DePodesta (who is now working for the Padres’ front office) started a blog which has a lot of potential. He’s interacting with readers and so far he’s updating it. An excerpt from his first post on Friday:

Nevertheless, hopefully you’ll find it useful to have some unfiltered access to our internal conversations and feelings. We’ll have to figure out the rules as we go since I won’t be able to share everything, but I think it’s important to open this avenue right now.

So, I’m here, and I’d like to be a part of the conversation. I’ll do my best to reply to comments/questions, though I can’t promise punctual responses or regular posts. After all, just like everyone else out there, I already have a job.

Yes, he has a sense of humor. He later linked to a hilarious YouTube video which is a must-see (it has nothing to do with DePodesta, and everything to do with Carlos Zambrano throwing heaters at people intentionally):

I will try to be a loyal reader of DePodesta’s blog, and hope he continues to update it. And I’m not even a Padres fan.

Paul DePodesta, a front office assistant for the San Diego Padres and former general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, now has a blog.

Like so many others, DePodesta first came to my attention in Moneyball, when he served as the Assistant General Manager to Billy Beane on the Oakland A’s. Paul is a brilliant baseball mind, and his blog will no doubt be an interesting read.

Paul DePodesta, former LA Dodgers GM, and current Padres front office mensch, has a blog.  It’s notable, more or less, because it’s the first time a front office type has started a public blog, and DePodesta is a smart guy, and Padres fans are going to have the chance to have a fascinating insight into the way their club works, thanks to DePodesta.

Now, Depodesta is just getting started, so it’s possible he’ll play hard to get and his blog will never give fans the kind of insights into decisions they wish for, but even if the blog is a failure in that sense, it will succeed on other levels as long as DePo finds things like this to share:

DePodesta: It Might Be Dangerous…

Paul DePodesta, front office special assistant for the Padres and former Dodgers GM, has started a blog. The Harvard-educated economics major is noted for bringing sabermetric principles into baseball decision-making (he did play baseball at the college, too). Pretty cool to be able to share your thoughts with someone so high up in an organization.

An interview with San Diego Padres special advisor, Paul Depodesta on Beyond the Box Score in the SB Nation (always a good read). There’s a certain self-consciousness that you can pick up based on all the bashing he got during his time with the LA Dodgers as general manager. Everyone, despite what Bill Plaschke thinks (note: Plaschke doesn’t think), Depodesta does know what character means.

Speaking of which, Plashke changed his view of Depo when the Mitchell report broke noting, “give new boss Paul DePodesta credit for trading Lo Duca to the Florida Marlins. I wrote that sending Lo Duca out during the middle of a pennant race was one of the worst trades in team history. If DePodesta made the trade based on steroid use, then I stand corrected.”

An oversimplification, of course, but it’s something from Plaschke. I say it was a great trade because Lo Duca was worthless after the month of June, but that’s just splitting hairs at this point.

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Aaron Rowand thinks the San Francisco Giants will be competitive in 2008. He is alone in that regard. I’d say they’d be lucky to be good in five to ten years.

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Newbie Hall of Famer Goose Gossage thinks all the roiders should come clean. I agree with that. Who will step up and be the first? I won’t hold my breath.

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Curt Schilling is a World of Warcraft dork.

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My boy Andy, of Gutty Little Bruins, weighs in on Pete Carroll and the NFL.

LA Times columnist Bill Plaschke, who for whatever reason seems to have a lot of influence in the region, wrote a column today saying the Dodgers should start playing all of their young guys and make this a rebuilding year, essentially. 

There are so many reasons why this is stupid. Here are some that came to my head:

The Dodgers play in the 2nd-biggest market in the country and despite the Angels’ recent success, are still the most popular team in the region. They shouldn’t have to settle for rebuilding years.

The Dodgers have the 6th-highest payroll in the league at about $108 million. They’re not exactly a Kansas City or a Pittsburgh that need to rebuild and play their young guys.

The Dodgers signed several free agents with the intent of winning this year, guys like Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Luis Gonzalez, Randy Wolf and Nomar Garciaparra (again). Most of those weren’t great signings, but they were signed with the intention of winning this year.

The Dodgers returned most of their players from a roster that went to the playoffs last year.

As bad as the Dodgers have played lately (and they’ve been bad), at 60-59, their winning percentage is about the same as the 2006 Cardinals who won the World Series. Why throw away a chance at the playoffs when anything can happen if you get in?

It was only three weeks ago that the Dodgers had the best record in the National League. The current Dodgers are only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, and again, return most of a roster that saw an extremely streaky team a year ago (with stretches worse than this year’s team has been through) make the playoffs.

And if any of you haven’t read me closely — I’m an Angels fan, not a Dodgers fan. I’m not being a homer here.

I just despise Bill Plaschke and his clear biases in favor of some people (like current Dodger GM Ned Colletti, who Plaschke would have you believe is the greatest GM ever) and biases against people (like former Dodger GM Paul DePodesta, who Plaschke ran out of town, despite both GMs having similar track records up to now).

Plaschke says as much in today’s column, where he says he complained when past GMs didn’t make moves at the trading deadline to help their teams. But this year, it’s different, because he has a man-crush on Ned Colletti, even though the Dodgers are filled with veterans who were supposed to win this year. So when this year’s team struggles, it’s not Colletti’s fault, even though he was the one who devoted a huge chunk of the payroll to veterans who either get hurt or aren’t very good anymore.

To any Dodger fans who are reading this, ask yourselves, is this what you want? A rebuilding team? I’d be outraged (more than I already am) if I was a Dodger fan. That team has the talent that should be able to win now and in the future.

Links from around the internets that are keeping me entertained until my Hattrick team’s fourth-round cup match tonight:

* Jacob Jackson of The Hardball Times has an excellent, well-thought out post about how to fix baseball’s worst franchise, the Pittsburgh Pirates. I like one of his suggestions — hire Paul DePodesta. While it would never happen, I would love it if he replaced Bill Stoneman when Stoneman retires one day. DePodesta got a raw deal with the Dodgers, but he made good moves with what he inherited and with a lower payroll than Ned Colletti has now.

* The Epic Carnival has a baseball story that could be potentially better than The Rookie. I’m not exaggerating — if Brodie Downs makes it to the big leagues, it’s at least as amazing as Jim Morris.

* tziller at Ballhype has a great visual post, mapping teams in the NBA based on offense, defense, efficiency and pace.

* The Royals finally regained some power last night. No, not that kind. (Babes Love Baseball)

With just a week till Opening Day, it’s time for me to declare my alliances going into the season. The rooting hierarchy can and will change throughout the season, but that doesn’t mean I can just start the season without a clear list made up. I could also include projections based on playing time guesses, but last season, the best I did was averaging like +/- 9 wins or something.

Hierarchy rankings are determined by team competence, my historical loyalty or antipathy to the franchise, the likeability of the team’s city, how the media treat the teams, and occasionally individual players or coaches. We begin with the three clubs whose games I will watch for the single purpose of rooting for the opponent.

30. New York Yankees To be perfectly honest, the team isn’t horrifyingly incompetent or badly-run. But for a $200m+ payroll, they have a terrible pitching staff and a thin farm system. Their obscene wealth is far beyond that of even Boston, Los Angeles, or any other organization in the sport, but my hatred runs deeper. The team still has the militaristic mindset and hair-pertaining policies, and of course, Derek Jeter. While it will have baseball’s best offense, its rotation to start the season will likely include foolishly-overpaid Japanese import Kei Igawa and mediocre minor-leaguer Darrell Rasner, neither of whom have any business on a contending club.
29. Chicago White Sox Many “experts” have labeled this team a sleeper to contend in 2007. Yet with a bad rotation, a worse bullpen, and an offense that is questionable at best, the team’s upside is probably 80 wins – but all the media will talk about is its scrappiness, effort, and hard work (exemplified by sub-average Darin Erstad – “did you know he was a punter in college? He MUST be good at baseball!”). The team may have plenty of “grinders” and be a great example to ten-year-olds, but effort doesn’t always make a good player or a good team. The media need to praise shrewd transactions rather than acquisitions who will try to be useful, and the White Sox have far too many of the latter.
28. Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers were a favorite team of mine not long ago, when the franchise employed stat-boy Paul DePodesta as GM. DePo had a run of bad luck, and being of a mindset at odds with the media and most of the baseball world, ended up a sacrificial lamb for the team’s shortcomings. He was replaced by a man who’s traditional and likes opinions and “tools” better than evidence and tangible production, and it shows – the Dodgers signed speedy-but-out-prone OF Juan Pierre and liked-but-old OF Luis Gonzalez to unjustifiable deals, and go into the season with just three projected above-average position players. Offseason signing SP Jason Schmidt will help keep the club in the wildcard race, but that doesn’t justify the myriad mistakes which prevent LA from being a truly great team.