I went to Perth today. Perth Scotland.

I was going to learn about Capital Gains Tax at the feet of Professor Alex McDougall – an excellent speaker who just gives it to you straight. There’s no other way to take tax – unlike whisky, it is not mollified by a drop of water. As I headed into the world of the tax collectors, I switched from Radio 4 to Radio 3, increasing audience numbers  by 50% I guess. I didn’t really want to listen to last night’s episode of The Archers (again, I hasten to add) and the afternoon play didn’t sound sufficiently intriguing to make that my material for the remainder of my journey.

Within minutes I was transported back to 1803, recognising almost instantly Beethoven’s 3rd Piano Concerto, which I had heard at the SCO not two weeks ago.

It seemed right for the landscape. Looking beyond the cone universe called the A80 – how many thousands are there? who makes them and how much are the shares? – I could see the gently rolling end of the Campsie Fells as the Mavis Valley came to an end and headed towards Falkirk. Beethoven was right for the moment.

And there they were tall, ungainly tax collectors standing like two eyed triffids, camouflaged in bright yellow so as to blend with the scenery, so that they might not be seen. A job they do better at night I must say when you just can’t see them at all.

They represent all that is good about Britain, stealth tax in action. They are watching you all the time so that you must watch your speedometer instead of focussing on the road: at the cone hazards, the constantly changing lane layouts like the staircases at Hogwarts; the huge trucks waiting to pounce from their works exits into the main carriageway at 2 miles an hour.

Having left the hive of activity that will keep many people employed for years to come, I headed into beautiful Perthshire. And it was today. The sun brightened the russet leaves and in between the clouds there was a wisp of a rainbow – typical, forgot my camera again –  as I passed places and road-ends with mystical sounding names like Findo Gask, Dunning and Bardrill.

The seminar was excellent and my Capital Gains Tax knowledge is now replenished and I am ready to take on the world.

Provided it is cone free…

JohnF

Pengelolaan proyek-proyek berskala besar yang berhasil memerlukan perencanaan, penjadwalan, dan pengkoordinasiaan yang hati-hati dari berbagai aktivitas yang berkaitan. Untuk itu telah dikembangkan prosedur-prosedur formal yang didasarkan atas pengguna network (jaringan) dan teknik-teknik network. Prosedur yang paling utama dari teknik penjadwalan proyek ini dikenal sebagai PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) dan CPM (Critical Path Method), yang diantara keduanya terdapat perbedaan penting. Namun kecenderungan pada dewasa ini adalah menggabungkan kedua pendekatan tersebut menjadi apayang biasa dikenal dengan PERT-type system. Perencanaan suatu proyek terdiri dari tiga tahap :

1. Membuat uraian kegiatan-kegiatan, menyusun logika urutan kejadian-kejadian, menentukan syarat-syarat pendahuluan, menguraikan interaksidan interdependensi antara kegiatan-kegiatan.
2. Penaksiran waktu yang diperlukan untuk melaksanakan tiap kegiatan, menegaskan kapan suatu kegiatan berlangsung dan kapan berakhir.
3. Menetapkan alokasi biaya dan peralatan guna pelaksanaan tiap kegiatan.

Penjadwalan proyek merupakan salah satu hal yang penting dalam manajemen proyek, dimana penjadwalan ini memperlihatkan waktu pengerjaan tiap paket pekerjaan dan kejadian apa yang dihasilkan dari serangkaian paket kerja tertentu.
Jadwal proyek berhubungan dengan kejadian, milestone, termasuk Gantt Chart, jaringan kerja proyek, diagram CPM/PERT.
Gantt Chart tidak bisa secara eksplisit menunjukkan keterkaitan antar aktivitas dan bagaiman satu aktivitas berakibat pada aktivitas lain bila waktunya terlambat atau dipercepat, sehingga perlu dilakukan modifikasi terhadap Gantt Chart.
Untuk itu dikembangkan teknik baru yang bisa mengatasi kekurangan-kekurangan yang ada pada Gantt Chart. Cara baru itu dikenal sebagai jaringan kerja atau Network.

Download pdf: PASI – Modul A – Teknik Penjadwalan (PERT)

Mirror Link : http://fairuz.upy.ac.id/?p=570

I. PENDAHULUAN

Pertanian di Indonesia dewasa ini lebih ditekankan kepada intensifikasi lahan dan diversifikasi komoditas tanaman mengingat ekstensifikasi lahan sudah kecil kemungkinannya. Menyorot program intensifikasi lahan, pemerintah melalui Depatemen Pertanian dan dinas instansi terkait  dengan segala daya upaya berusaha meningkatkan kemampuan produksi lahan pertanian melalui banyak cara, antara lain: pengadaan bibit unggul, penyediaan pupuk dan pestisida, pelatihan dan penyuluhan petani, dsb.

Namun demikian banyak kendala masih kita hadapi diantaranya kecepatan daya adaptasi petani kita terhadap teknologi pertanian terbaru masih lemah. Tidak mudah untuk mengajak, mengarahkan dan meyakinkan mereka untuk menjalankan suatu teknik baru. Hal ini bisa dimaklumi mengingat latar belakang kebanyakan petani kita dan juga petani serba takut cara-cara baru yang dikampanyekan nantinya menemui kegagalan. Mereka tidak sanggup menanggung kerugian yang ditimbulkannya.

Pandhu Subur Persada hadir untuk menawarkan sebuah solusi bagi para petani dan dunia pertanian secara luas melalui produk pupuk cair lengkap Super Power yang mampu mendongkrak potensi optimal tanaman apapun untuk berproduksi.

1.1 VISI

Kunci kemakmuran bangsa dan negara Indonesia ada di bidang pertanian.

1.2 MISI

Dengan pupuk organik cair lengkap Super Power, apapun tanaman yang dibudidayakan oleh para petani di seluruh Indonesia mampu tercapai produktifitas puncaknya sehingga kemakmuran para petani bisa segera terwujud.

1.3 TUJUAN

Mengenalkan dan memasarkan pupuk organik cair lengkap Super Power kepada para petani seluas-luasnya.

II. PROFIL PERUSAHAAN

Pandhu Subur Persada adalah perusahaan berbadan hukum dengan SIUP No. 503/0339/411/2009 dan TDP: 13.07.3.52.02643 bergerak di bidang pemasaran produk agrokompeks.

Kantor pusat di Jl. Slamet Riyadi, Kompleks Pesona Regency AC 32, Patrang, Jember, Jawa Timur telp. 0331-4185060.

III. STRATEGI PEMASARAN

Mengenalkan sekaligus menawarkan suatu produk pupuk baru kepada petani bukanlah pekerjaan mudah. Jalan pintas yang paling sering dipraktekkan para pemasar pupuk adalah dengan pembuatan demo plot. Namun cara yang padat modal ini juga seringkali gagal mencapai sasaran. Resistensi para petani kerap berbentuk cibiran karena demo plot pastilah diupayakan dengan segala cara agar ‘tampak’ berhasil dan terbukti. Kekhawatiran mereka jika diterapkan di lahan dan tanaman mereka sendiri belum tentu berhasil.

Maka dari itu sedapat mungkin kami berusaha agar petani sendiri yang melakukan pembuktian secara swakarsa dan swadana walaupun dalam luasan lahan yang kecil. Tak lain tujuannya untuk menumbuhkan keyakinan yang kuat akan manfaat pupuk organik cair Super Power ini karena pembuktiannya dilakukan melalui tangan petani sendiri. Mengingat resistensi para petani pada umumnya terhadap suatu inovasi baru, kami mengangkat sebuah semboyan: “Apapun tanamannya, apapun pupuknya, yang penting semprot Super Power”.

Kemudahan aplikasi dan kesederhanaan teknis menjadi pintu masuk pertama dengan tujuan semata-mata agar petani mau mencoba dan menyaksikan bukti adanya peningkatan hasil panen. Tekanan untuk melaksanakann teknis tanam yang ideal dan sempurna kita hindari dulu karena semakin rumit kesan yang didapat oleh petani semakin enggan mereka untuk mau melakukannya. Setelah sekali petani membuktikan, tumbuhlah keyakinan mereka akan manfaat produk ini. Pintu kedua terbuka. Saatnya melanjutkan intensifikasi yang bersifat teknis, seperti: olah tanah yang baik, pemilihan benih, pembibitan , pengaturan jarak tanam, teknik pengairan, pengendalian hama penyakit tanaman yang ramah lingkungan, pemupukan berimbang, dsb. Itupun harus dilakukan secara bertahap dengan menjaga kesederhanaan cara penyampaian dan kemudahan pengaplikasiannya.

IV. KESIMPULAN

Berdasarkan data ilmiah maupun fakta empirik, kami berkeyakinan bahwa hadirnya pupuk organik cair lengkap Super Power akan mampu menjawab tantangan hari ini dan hari depan pertanian di Indonesia sekaligus mempertegas pengintensifan produktifitas lahan para petani kita.

Menghadapi persaingan produk sejenis yang ada di pasaran, pupuk organik cair lengkap Super Power mengetengahkan keunggulan mutu, terjangkaunya harga, ketersediaan barang, bukti nyata, kesempatan pemasaran, kesederhanaan aplikasi dan keamanan pemakaian baik bagi tanaman, ternak maupun manusia.

V. PENUTUP

Pandhu Subur Persada dengan bersungguh-sungguh ingin mendedikasikan produk ini bagi para petani di bumi persada Indonesia. Harapan dan semangat kami adalah segera terwujudnya kedaulatan pangan di negara kita tercinta ini sehingga tak banyak lagi rakyat yang kelaparan. Sekaligus mengangkat harkat dan kepercayaan diri para petani kita yang selama ini seakan-akan termarjinalkan secara status sosialnya.

Afin que tout se déroule pour le mieux, il est indispensable de penser à tout planifier en partant de l’objectif à atteindre et en déroulant toutes les actions possibles pour atteindre cet objectif.
La planification de projet se fait à l’aide d’outils de planification qui ont chacun leur objectif dans cette planification. Ainsi, le chef de projet pourra définir un diagramme fonctionnel. En fait, le but est de diviser les tâches et d’y allouer des ressources. On pourra donc facilement voir qui fait quoi. Un autre outil est également le WBS (Work Breakdown structure) qui est quasiment la même chose à ceci près qu’on y ajoute également la liste des livrables pour chaque tâche.
L’étape suivante est de reprendre les différentes tâches et d’y ajouter des jalons. Pour ce faire, là encore plusieurs outils sont à la portée du chef de projet. Il peut utiliser la méthode GANTT où il pourra planifier heure par heure quasiment les étapes du projet et le planning exacte avec les ressources correspondantes. Le chef de projet pourra également compléter le diagramme de GANTT avec la méthode PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technic) où il y posera plutôt un calendrier basé sur les zones critiques du projet. Le chef de projet utilisera plutôt cette méthode s’il voudra réussir son projet le plus rapidement possible en identifiant les tâches qui ne doivent connaître aucun retard.

Dando sequência aos posts comemorativos dos 50 anos do método PERT/CPM, segue abaixo uma traduação livre do excelente artigo do Peter Mello sobre algumas reflexões envolvendo o caminho crítico. Este artigo foi publicado na revista PM World Today – Maio 2009 (Volume XI, Edição V).

O arquivo original (em inglês) encontra-se no fim deste post para download.

Artigo: My World is a square, so is my Critical Path

por:  Peter Berndt de Souza Mello – peter.mello@x25.com.br

Eu não consigo entender a audácia daqueles que consideram o caminho crítico como sendo uma palavra registrada.

Já é hora de nós “viajarmos”. Me dêem uma folga, pelo amor de deus.

Todos nós conhecemos a importância do método do caminho crítico. Mas isto não da a ninguém o direito de dizer que somente se você encontrar o a seqüência de atividades com folga zero você terá o caminho crítico do projeto!

Meu projeto tem o caminho crítico no momento em que eu penso nele pela primeira vez! Pelo estabelecimento da minha data desejada de inicio e minha data desejada de término, eu já tenho o caminho crítico. Eu simplesmente não sei ainda onde ele está.

Infelizmente buscando pela Internet por uma definição de caminho crítico, vou encontrar nove em dez referências começando assim: “Caminho Crítico é aquela seqüência de atividades com folga zero ou sem folga.” Isso é tudo? Isto sempre será verdadeiro ?

Estou cansado dos experts em CPM que dizem que se um projeto tem folga no seu caminho crítico, então você esta olhando para a seqüência errada de atividades no projeto. É uma verdade divina que tal caminho pode existir somente se não tivermos folgas?

Primeiro de tudo, deixe-me relembrar uma pequena história, quando James E Kelly outros na DUPONT desenvolveram tal método, o objetivo era “estabelecer a mais longa seqüência de atividades necessárias para estabelecer a menor duração para se concluir o projeto” Não existe conceito de folga neste objetivo e não existem questões em como alcançar tal resultado. Encontrar atividades com folga zero é de fato um subproduto do método. Esta é a forma que alguns encontram parte da resposta para a verdadeira questão.

Certamente o CPM pode funcionar em muitos cenários, especialmente com uma falta de complexidade das condições da vida real além de dependências nas tarefas. Eu estou certo de que o CPM é muito melhor que nada, mas este método também não é nem próximo do melhor.

E por favor, não pense que estou escrevendo tudo isto para dizer que o CCPM, SDPM, RCS ou RCP devem ser melhores. Eu não vou explicar estes conceitos, métodos, acrônimos ou seus resultados. Este texto não é sobre encontrar a solução perfeita para o descobrimento do verdadeiro caminho crítico. É sobre restaurar o significado do caminho crítico: Deve ser qualquer seqüência de tarefas que você deve prestar atenção para preservar os objetivos do planejamento de tempo, custo e escopo (acompanhado dos outros objetivos do projeto).

O método do caminho crítico deve ajuda-lo a localizar as atividades críticas. Raramente ele irá encontrar todas elas, mas ira ajudá-lo a identificar as mais importantes das importantes. Estas atividades críticas não contêm folgas, e eu sei que qualquer atraso ocorrido nestas atividades deve atrasar o projeto. Mas elas devem ser críticas por que consomem uma grande quantidade de dinheiro ou tomam os recursos mais qualificados ou talvez sejam mais arriscadas que outras atividades. Se eu puder utilizar o CPM para matematicamente encontrar muitas atividades que estão no caminho crítico, ótimo; se eu puder utilizar o método RCP para matematicamente encontrar melhores soluções para minhas questões, maravilhoso. Se nada funcionar eu ainda necessito ser capaz de descobrir quais são as atividades críticas e qual será meu caminho crítico.

Sem copyrights! Sem brigas extremistas para defender qualquer método! Vamos comprender que o mundo é redondo e que entende que cada projeto terá um ou mais caminhos críticos que cuidar, com ou sem folgas.

Uma vez que entendamos este conceito, ai podemos provacar os os matemáticos e fornecedores para finalmente encontrar-nos as respostas. Meu caminho crítico tem algumas folgas, e o de vocês ?

Peter Mello, PMI-SP, PMP, SpS

Autor

Nota do autor:  Se você leu ese artigo até o fim, eu ficaria grato pelo seu feedback (peter.mello@x25.com.br).

- Para ler a reportagem completa em inglês:

Saturday 2nd May

Up at 5:30 AM and started getting organised. No shower or shave-too difficult!

It is just on 8:30 AM so only 40 minutes before we are due in Perth.

Good breakfast again! Sat with Taffy and Pat… . What an interesting couple! Both are biochemists. He is 82, and she is a similar age, and they are going to drive across the Tanami. He is only tiny and so is she-pretty game!! He has only recently realised what a bunch of immoral people there are in the pharmaceutical industry.

A slow trip into Perth at first because the train goes through a mountainous area-not very high but the line cuts through the mountains and it is winding and slow. Once we got onto the flats it became quicker.

It’s a beautiful day outside but it could be cold.

We arrived on time but the IP station is a few kilometres out of town. Glad to be off the train as the single room is so restricting. Brendan and I caught a local train-he to Fremantle and me to Miss Maud’s hotel in Perth CBD. Had to find my way to the hotel but I was there within 15 minutes which was about 10 AM. Not allowed into a room but I was allowed to leave my luggage there.

I walked down to Barrack Street wharf but no boats at that time going to Rottnest Island so I decided to just take the boat to Fremantle and have a look around. I had to wait till 11 AM and then we were off. It’s a beautiful day and a very pleasant trip-very knowledgeable skipper who talked for almost the entire trip. I didn’t realise how big the Swan River is. It took 1 ¼ hours to get to Fremantle. The Sun Princess was docked near where we were to disembark. I left it too late on the boat to go to the toilet. I couldn’t find a public toilet, so I found an hotel, went in and there was Brendan- he had checked into the local youth hostel and was waiting to move in. I had my comfort stop and then we had a beer. After the 1st one we decided to move to another pub to try something different.

Not knowing where to go we followed the crowd and found an area with a couple of pubs and a lot of coffee shops. These were crowded-I suppose the Sun Princess crowd helped. We chose a pub that was a little bit away from the crowd and continued our drinking.

After three beers we split up as Brendan had to get back and check into the youth hostel and he didn’t want to miss out on a bed. I went and got a Subway for lunch and just as I finished eating Brendan walked past looking for an ATM.

I caught the Cat which is a free bus service around the Fremantle CBD. The stupid woman driver kept closing the centre door on people trying to get on board and then closing it on them when they tried to go into the front. I got a bruised wrist from this performance. This is a free service so it is hard to imagine why she wouldn’t let people on via the centre door. My only bad personal experience so far. I didn’t do the full circuit but got off and walked to the very big modern hotel that Miri and I had looked at previously. I bashed my watch against the door and it fell off-the pin came out of the band. I was lucky to find the pin. A jeweller put it together for me free of charge which made up for the stupid Cat driver.

I wandered around Fremantle a bit more and got some toothpaste and toothbrushes from the local Coles supermarket-I have not put these into my luggage as I had been told they would be included in the Indian Pacific toiletries bag. They weren’t!

I caught the local train back to Fremantle and walked back to the hotel and checked in. A very nice room-very big compared to my room in Adelaide and about 10 times bigger than the cabin on the Indian Pacific. The shower was huge which was a relief.

The hotel lift is still an original where you open the doors yourself to get it to work. Staff not really helpful-but I suspect that is Perth. I’m entitled to a smorgasbord breakfast but because I leave so early I have to get breakfast delivered but it is just a continental one.

Did some washing and battery charging and now I’m out having a drink and writing this while I have a beer. Then I will go looking for a reasonable meal.

Walked to Northbridge. Prices here are very high. Settled for Cheesy Nachos at The Brass Monkey Pub- $10.50 plus a pint of Little Creatures Pale Ale $9. Huge plate of nachos and it took a long time to eat. I went for a 2nd beer, hoping that no one would take away my unfinished meal.
I got back to the hotel about 8:10 PM and did some organising-watched the first part of the Bill after washing socks and undies. My watch fell apart again when I started washing, so put everything into a plastic bag-I’ll try another jeweller somewhere else. Kept falling asleep so shower and asleep by 9:45 PM

What is an estimate?

According to Dictionary.com the verb means:

1.
to form an approximate judgment or opinion regarding the worth, amount, size, weight, etc., of; calculate approximately: to estimate the cost of a college education.

2.
to form an opinion of; judge.

and the noun means

4.
an approximate judgment or calculation, as of the value, amount, time, size, or weight of something.

5.
a judgment or opinion, as of the qualities of a person or thing.

6.
a statement of the approximate charge for work to be done, submitted by a person or business firm ready to undertake the work.

So, why is that a bad word? Well, I don’t think it’s really a bad word, but in the case of software development, the use of the word results in some serious problems.

Case 1: A developer leaves a task unfinished, that is not according to Definition of Done. The reason is that he’s run out of time according to the estimate so he drops it or finish it with lacking quality.

Case 2: A developer starts working on “something else”. The reason is that he finished what he was supposed to in less than the estimated time and felt free to spend the rest of the time with that other stuff.

Case 3: A project manager gets upset that a project is late. The reason is that he feels that the project is late because things took longer than the estimates.

So, why is estimate a bad word? It’s because it can cause people being pushed into not completing the tasks or not doing the things that have the highest priority. It causes confusion.

And if you consider a project where Case 1 and Case 2 are common, what happens? It causes some stuff to be bug infested which probably causes later delays and you’re never able to make up the time since when the developers are faster than the estimate, instead of moving on to the next item, they fill up the time with other stuff. Observe that I don’t assume that they are surfing the web or just idling, perhaps they refactor or something else. So, it is often good stuff, but not the most important stuff. And it does not help in catching up. So, what does this lead to; Case 3. If the project delivers poor quality and unfinished work and never makes up the time, of course the project will be delayed.

So, what word is better? Planned? Don’t think so, even if Microsoft Project use that word. This word most definitely leads to all these cases. Assumption is no better. When you think about it, you just have to realize that the word will lead to misunderstandings. So, what do you do?

Well, to handle Case 1 & 2 you need leadership and here I think that Kanban is a real savior. You cannot just drop the work and you cannot use the estimate as “your time”.

But what about that project manager? When it comes to the project manager’s need for planning, it’s important for him to realize that an estimate is a guess. A good or a bad guess. And when you’re guessing, you need to know the value of the guess. I like working the PERT analysis when this is a big issue (isn’t always??). You give three estimates; an optimistic, a probably and a pessimistic. Here is an excellent presentation on PERT analysis by Ricardo Vargas.

You can also add a value of risk to the estimate. So, when you estimate something, you estimate the size and the risk. And you would be stupid if you don’t realize that if you have a big task with a high risk, you cannot take that estimate for granted.

Todos sabemos o quanto é importante elaborar um cronograma realista e factível. Muito se fala de técnicas, mas pouco se diz como aplicá-las.

Apresentarei a seguir o método PERT associado a análise de riscos que acredito ajudar a estimar com maior embasamento a duração das atividades e ao mesmo tempo criar um registro de riscos importante para argumentar as possíveis variações de duração no decorrer e término das atividades.

Importante lembrar que a análise e histórico de controle de riscos desenvolvidos e as durações estimadas e reais deverão ser usados para compor as lições aprendidas. Assim trabalhos futuros serão estimados com mais conhecimento e precisão.

Primeiramente recomendo que comece a aplicar esse método não em todas as atividades do cronograma, pois pode levar muito tempo dependendo da quantidade de atividades e riscos relacionados. No entanto, selecione ao menos todas as atividades do(s) caminho(s) crítico(s) – lembre-se de que pode haver mais de um caminho crítico em um diagrama de rede.

Antes de estimar as durações das atividades faça uma lista de todos os riscos positivos e negativos conhecidos que podem ocorrer relacionados à cada atividade, como cada risco pode onerar ou contribuir em termos de duração e qual a probabilidade de incidência (baixa, média ou alta). Para determinar a probabilidade valerá sua experiência, mas se não tiver essa sensibilidade, consulte alguém que tem um histórico ou em última hipótese seja conservador e determine como alta probabilidade.

É preciso partir de uma estiva central que será utilizada posteriormente para aplicação dos impactos dos riscos. Neste caso não há muita alternativa. Algumas técnicas de estimativa são: paramétrica, análoga, com base em um experimento, delphi (pergunta-se a outros especialista e então inicia a consolidação das respostas) entre outras.

Selecione na lista apenas os riscos positivos – afinal coisas boas também existem – e negativos mais prováveis (alta probabilidade) de acontecer  e determine a duração Mais Provável (MP) de cada atividade. Cuidado com as armadilhas do tipo ” Há baixa probabilidade de que um recurso falte. Logo há alta probabilidade de que o recurso não falte” – análise conhecida como árvore de decisão. Neste caso escolha apenas o risco positivo de que o recurso não falte, pois é o maior.

Selecione todos os riscos negativos previstos e determine a duração pessimista (P).

Selecione todos os riscos positivos previstos e determine a duração otimista (O).

Calcule a duração PERT de cada atividade, que é a duração considerando as 3 estimativas através da fórmula (O+4MP+P)/6.

Quando for executar a atividade de fato, monitore os riscos e assinale o que não ocorrerá mais e o que de fato ocorreu. Se no momento da estimativa você comunicou as durações e os riscos, então terá uma justificativa clara que foi combinada antes do jogo e não terá problemas em argumentar as variações. Ora, não é isso que também fazem os previsores do tempo?

Opcionalmente, para calcular o desvio padrão ou 1 sigma de uma atividade, que é o nível de confiança esperado, basta aplicar a fórmula (P-O)/6 e com seu resultado afirmar o seguinte: “Levo (O+4MP+P)/6 de duração para completar a atividade com mais ou menos (P-O)/6 tendo como base o nível de confiança de 1 sigma, isto é, 68,26%.”

Exemplo:
Atividade = criar um cubo de gelo de tamanho convencional para servir em copo de suco
Duração Central (neste exemplo,  análoga) = 2 horas em congelador típico
Riscos:
1. + o congelador é de uma geração mais nova com capacidade de congelamento mais rápido (menos 1 hora) Baixa
2. – queda de energia por 1 hora (mais 1 hora) Baixa
3. – a água a ser utilizada está quente (mais 2 horas) Alta

Otimista = 2h (palpite) – 1h (congelador de última geração) = 1h
Mais Provável = 2h (palpite) + 2h (água quente) = 4h
Pessimista = 2h (palpite) + 1h (queda de energia) + 2h (água quente) = 5h
Duração PERT = (O+4MP+P)/6 = (1+4(4)+5)/6 = 3,67 horas
(P-O)/6 = (7-2)/6 = +-0,67 dias = 1 desvio padrão ou 1 sigma

Levo 3,67 horas de duração para completar a atividade com mais ou menos 0,67 horas tendo como base um nível de confiança de 68,26%* ou com mais ou menos 1,34 horas tendo como base um nível de confiança de 95,46% e assim por diante.

* Valores padrões:
1 sigma = 68,26%
2 sigma = 95,46%
3 sigma = 99,73%
6 sigma = 99,99985%

Se desejar descobrir a duração somada de uma sequencia de atividades, no caso a sequencia do caminho crítico, nunca some os desvios padrões de cada atividade. Ao invés disso, primeiro eleve o desvio padrão de cada atividade ao quadrado (o que significa transformar em Variância), some as variâncias e aplique a raiz quadrada ao resultado.

Bons cronogramas!

Felicity, this is Mister Dean from next door.”

I advanced with caution, Scraggers now clinging to me and also surveying the scene with the kind of astonishment only cats are truly capable of displaying.

Felicity sat alone in an antique rocking chair against the window in the far end of the room. She wore an expression of abject misery, a paradox to the snorts and giggles escaping from her grandmother.

I studied her face – lovely, soft lines, petite nose, dark eyes, jet black hair. Her body – slim, lithe, with pert, young, unencumbered breasts beneath a flimsy blouse. A body that, somehow, also seemed tired, spent. She couldn’t have been more than sixteen.

“How do you do,” I asked politely. She looked away, not answering.

“Mister Dean, do sit down. I have something to show you,” sang Mrs Marshall, as though I was a child and she a doting mother, playfully building my excitement and anticipation as one does with little ones at Christmas. I felt a little uncomfortable.

Mrs Marshall was absent from the room only a few moments. Felicity kept her eyes averted, not in a coy manner as a girl her age may be expected to do, but as though she didn’t even know I was there.

I individually disengaged Scraggers’ claws from my shirt and placed her on the carpet. She stood and looked at me, at Felicity, back at me, her bewilderment growing.

“Look! See!” cried Mrs Marshall as she re-entered the room. “I’m a great grandmother!”

She held a silent bundle in her arms, a quiet, anonymous shroud of soft cloth. “Look! See!”

She came gliding across the carpet as if on wheels, and thrust the bundle into my arms.

It was an infant. Nothing peculiar about that. But it was not just any ordinary infant.

It was unusually small, and undoubtedly dead.

Felicity began to weep softly from her corner. The coldness of the little corpse seeped through the downy cloth and into my hands.

What do you consider your most useful tool in project management… digital or otherwise? Is it your favourite software… critical paths or pertographs, networks on time perhaps… Microsoft project?

My candidate for the most useful tool is the humble post-it note. After the pencil (with an eraser attached) the post-it has been one of my fundamentals for getting to grips with a new project. It is clear, flexible and allows me to be creative and explain processes to clients.  Give me coloured post it notes and a blank wall and I’m in hog-heaven. So… what is your candidate?

The Critical path, a wonderful way to find the critical tasks in a project, wouldn’t you say? Well, perhaps not. Here goes. We have a project:

According to Microsoft Project. the tasks which are included in the critical path are A, B and D. How can I see that? Well, using the default Gantt chart you cannot see this, but if you switch to the Network Diagram (View—>Network diagram) shows you just this:

Other ways to view the critical path is to use the Gantt chart wizard or viewing the Tracking Gantt:

But what is the critical path?

Well, everything in Microsoft Project is based on calculations and fields and the critical path is no different. We insert two fields, Critical and Total slack.

Do you spot the pattern? Yes, what differs task C from the others is that Total Slack is over 0 and Critical is set to No. You cannot manually change Critical, since it’s based on Total Slack. So, the definition of a task belonging to the critical path is that total slack is 0, which leads to Critical being Yes. So, if we want C to become critical, we can change the duration with 3 days.

And if we add another day to the duration of C, guess what happens:

Yes, now that C > A + B, A and B are no longer critical.

If you look at this very briefly, it sounds all right, but really; we have no idea at this point which type of tasks we’re dealing with. Are all tasks as crucial? Critical path does not take into consideration how devastating it would be for D if C was not completely finished. Perhaps we can start anyway?

The problem is not unique to the Gantt chart view, the network diagram have the same problems and if you use some kind of PERT diagram, you will see the same definition.

As with everything using a tool like Microsoft Project it is important to understand how the program works. Think about your definition of a word like Critical and compare that to the definition in Microsoft Project.

I end this post with yet another setting in Microsoft Project. I wrote that the definition of a task being Critical as Total slack being 0. If you have very long tasks, this might not be very telling. Perhaps you want Project to highlight all tasks which cannot be delayed more than 5 days before turning red in your diagram. You can then select Tools—>Options. Select the Calculation tab and change the setting of Tasks are critical if slack is less than or equal to X days.

Here’s a bunch of coupons that showed up in my email this past week. I don’t know if I’ll be using them, but I don’t want them to go to waste! Hope they can help some of you!

2 sets of Food Lion q’s (I use these at Publix!)

$1 Off

Hello all…hope this finds you well.  Since there were jackpot items the past few weeks, this week was a bit “back to normal”, but pales in comparison to the things we stocked up on…however, there are a few things you might need. 

This week at Walgreens, they have Colgate Sensitive on promo.  Buy one at $4.49, and you’ll get a Register Reward for $4.50.  If you use the coupon from Week Q (two Sunday’s ago), you’ll make money on the deal.  The coupon is in the SmartSource insert, about 30 coupons from the front.

Bonus Deal:   They have Pert Shampoo on sale for $2.50.  If you buy 2 of them, you’ll get a $2.00 Register Reward.  Use coupons from this past Sunday’s SmartSource insert..there are two coupons–one for Pert Plus for Men, and the other is regular Pert Plus.  I think both coupons are for $1.00.  So, here’s the transacation:  2 Pert’s for $5.00 – 2.00 in coupons – $2.00 Register Reward= $1.00.  You’ll only pay $0.50 for each one. 

Happy Shopping… CouponCathy

Want to know about these deal before they happen?  I’ve written all about it in my new book.  Click here for more info.  http://shopsensibly.blogspot.com

One of the most common topics read on this blog is the PERT formula. Please see the posting “PMP Exam – PERT Formula” (posted February 6, 2009) for an explanation of this formula. To use this formula, we need three estimates—Optimistic (best-case scenario), Most Likely (realistic), and Pessimistic (worst-case scenario). We then find the average, but we first weight the Most Likely estimate by 4. The formula is (O + (4*ML) + P) / 6. Here are some practice questions:

1. Anne hopes that it takes just 10 hours to make preparations for an important meeting. It will probably take 12 however, and if some key things go wrong, it will take 20 hours. How many hours should be scheduled for the meeting preparations using the PERT formula?
a. 14
b. 15
c. 11
d. 13

2. Tim’s mother-in-law just called. He hopes he can get off the phone in 4 minutes, but he knows she usually talks 20 minutes. If her arthritis is bothering her, the call could be 45 minutes. How many minutes should he plan on being on the phone, using the PERT formula?
a. 21.5
b. 23
c. 21
d. 23.5

3. Ginger is racing her horse against her neighbor’s horse. She hopes her horse will run a fourth of a mile in 30 seconds. Usually her horse runs that distance in 32 seconds, but when he’s grouchy it takes him 37 seconds. How many seconds can she guess her horse will run a fourth of a mile, using the PERT formula?
a. 33
b. 32.5
c. 33.5
d. 35

4. Using the PERT formula, George estimated that a certain report will take 10 days to write. His optimistic guess was 7 days and his pessimistic guess was 13 days. What was his guess for the time it would most likely take to write the report?
a. 10
b. 9
c. 11
d. 20

5. Using the PERT formula, Geraldine estimates that it will take her 6 hours to clean her house. Her optimistic guess was 3 hours and her most likely guess was 5 hours. What was her pessimistic guess?
a. 7
b. 4
c. 12
d. 13

Answers: 1. D; 2. A; 3. B; 4. A; 5. D

Para os dados apresentados a seguir, calcule o desvio padrão e a Estimativa de Três Pontos: Pessimista=14, Otimista=6, Realista=8.

0,33 e 7,66
1 e 9,66
2,33 e 4,66
1,33 e 8,66.

Resposta Correta: 1,33 e 8,66. Para calcular a Estimativa de Três Pontos, utilize a formula (P+4M+O)/6 [m=moderada, realista]. E para o Desvio Padrão, calcule (P-O)/6. Vamos admitir que essa foi fácil, calculando qualquer uma das proposições corretamente, por eliminação se chegava na resposta certa.

A Estimativa de Três Pontos é usada para gerar um prazo para a execução as atividades de um projeto, um valor que pode ser utilizado de forma segura, uma vez que leva em consideração tanto as visões pessimistas e otimistas, quanto um parâmetro realista de quanto tempo a atividade necessita para ser concluída. A Variância e o Desvio Padrão servem como complemento para o planejamento uma vez que permitem que o gerente de projetos se prepare para eventuais atrasos (e quem sabe, adiantamentos) nas entregas do projeto, podendo assim se precaver e estipular medidas caso algo não ocorra dentro do esperado.

Lembre-se que as respostas para a certificação devem ser escolhidas sempre pensando na melhor resposta possível.

Prepare-se para a Certificação PMP no seu próprio ritmo!

The world is getting smaller. And weirder…

Romanian Railroads – Messing up your trips since 1880.

]]> http://papogp.wordpress.com/2009/02/16/resposta-pmp-ix/ Mon, 16 Feb 2009 01:18:00 +0000 Diego Nei http://papogp.wordpress.com/2009/02/16/resposta-pmp-ix/

Para os dados apresentados a seguir, calcule a variância: Pessimista=14, Otimista=6, Realista=8.

1,78
1,33
Informações Insuficientes
8,66

Resposta Correta: 1,78. Quando vemos essas três estimativas, o PERT vem na cabeça na hora, mas a questão pediu a variância! Para calcular a variância, utilize a fórmula ( (P – O) / 6)².

((14 – 6) / 6)²
(8 / 6)²
1,33…²
1,78

Variância: Na teoria da probabilidade e na estatística, a variância de uma variável aleatória é uma medida da sua dispersão estatística, indicando quão longe em geral os seus valores se encontram do valor esperado.

Lembre-se que as respostas para a certificação devem ser escolhidas sempre pensando na melhor resposta possível.

Prepare-se para a Certificação PMP no seu próprio ritmo!