Missing players

Karabukspor: Ugur Ucar, Sanel Jahic
Antalyaspor: Minev, Isaac, Nizam

Antalyaspor started the league quite good with 2 wins in 4 weeks so far. Opposite of Antalyaspor, Karabukspor is having a nightmare so far. Awful start for such a team and coach. They have only 1 draw so far. In other 3 games they couldn’t get a single point and conceded 9 goals. But I must tell so far they played with league’s most in form teams.

Like I said Antalyaspor made a good start but smashed by Galatasaray last week. Moreover they lost their key attacker Isaac Promise after he had a red card. He will be suspended for 3 weeks. Another key player Tita is doubtful for this game but he will be able to play i think.

Antalyaspor was one of the bad away teams last season with 3-3-11 record while Karabukspor was one of the good home teams with 11-3-3 record. In the long run I think teams will have something close to that this season too.

This is a very important game for Karabukspor and a must win game. They have the power to win this game at home and I find the odds for home win with very nice value. If only Karabuk made a better start the line for them would be not less than -0.25 1.8 or so surely. Now we have level ball 1.80+.

I also believe there will be more than 2 goals in this game. Karabukspor is desperate to win and will play offensive surely. Antalyaspor is dangerous offensively and capable of scoring too. So far Karabukspor’s all game ended over 2.5 except first game with Trabzonspor which ended 1-1. Antalyaspor’s 3/4 game ended over 2.5 also.

So as you can understand I have 2 bet for this game which I find value…

Pick: Karabukspor dnb @ 1.85
Stake: 5 units

Pick: Over 2.25 goals at 1.76
Stake: 5 units

Chicago over St. Louis

Dallas over Tampa Bay

San Francisco over Minnesota

Detroit over Tennessee

Washington over Cincinnati

NY Jets over Miami

New Orleans over Kansas City

Cleveland over Buffalo

Indianapolis over Jacksonville

Philadelphia over Arizona

Atlanta over San Diego

Houston over Denver

Pittsburgh over Oakland

Baltimore over New England

Green Bay over Seattle

Quarterbacks:

1. Cam Newton: The Giants made the Buccaneers’ passing attack (while admittedly improved this year) look really good in week 2. Cam just beat the Saints and will look to pick apart a beat up Giants’ secondary.
2. Matthew Stafford: Stafford has not looked very strong yet this season, but a weak Titans secondary should be just the cure he needs.
3. Drew Brees: Same logic as for Stafford. The Chiefs have not looked great on defense.
4. Tony Romo: Romo should be able to bounce back from a horrible game against the Seahawks. Eli just threw for over 500 yards against this team, so Romo should be able to manage 300 and a few TDs.
5. Robert Griffin III: Brandon Weeden (the guy who got stopped by an American flag on opening day) just threw for 300 yards against this defense. With or without Garcon, RG3 is tearing up opposing defenses.
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Tom Brady
8. Eli Manning
9. Phillip Rivers
10. Matt Ryan
11. Andy Dalton
12. Ben Roethlisberger
13. Joe Flacco
14. Michael Vick
15. Alex Smith
16. Jay Cutler
17. Josh Freeman
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick
19. Matt Cassel
20. Peyton Manning
21. Matt Schaub
22. Sam Bradford
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Andrew Luck
25. Russell Wilson

Running Backs:

1. C.J. Spiller: Nobody has stopped him yet, so he gets this spot until they do.
2. Ray Rice: The Patriots defense looks a little better this year, but they won’t be able to keep up with Rice in this one.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew: Now that he has a few weeks under his belt, he will be ready to explode through a weak Colts defense.
4. Marshawn Lynch: Beast mode is the best option for the Seahawks. They will feed him often to keep Rodgers off the field.
5. LeSean McCoy: The Cardinals held Ridley under 100 yards, but I don’t see them doing that to a back of McCoy’s caliber.
6. Arian Foster
7. Frank Gore
8. DeMarco Murray
9. Michael Bush (remember that he used to be a starter in Oakland when McFadden went down)
10. Darren Sproles
11. Trent Richardson
12. Doug Martin
13. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
14. Reggie Bush
15. Adrian Peterson
16. Andre Brown
17. Darren McFadden
18. Alfred Morris
19. Jamaal Charles
20. Stevan Ridley
21. Steven Jackson (assuming he plays)
22. Ryan Matthews (assuming he plays)
23. Willis McGahee
24. Cedric Benson
25. Kevin Smith
26. Ben Tate
27. Jonathan Stewart
28. Chris Johnson
29. Peyton Hillis
30. Donald Brown

Wide Receivers:

1. Calvin Johnson: See Stafford, Matthew
2. Steve Smith: See Newton, Cam
3. A.J. Green: Two Rams receivers managed to have pretty good games against the Redskins. Neither Rams receiver is as good as A.J.
4. Victor Cruz: Nicks is out, so Cruz will be the go to guy for the Giants passing attack.
5. Marques Colston: He is having a quiet year and is due for a big game. The Chiefs defense will have trouble containing him.
6. Brandon Marshall
7. Percy Harvin
8. Mike Wallace
9. Dez Bryant
10. Dwayne Bowe
11. Jordy Nelson
12. Steve Johnson
13. Pierre Garcon
14. Roddy White
15. Andre Johnson
16. Greg Jennings
17. Antonio Brown
18. Danny Amendola
19. Miles Austin
20. Reggie Wayne
21. Brandon Lloyd
22. Brandon LaFell
23. Wes Welker
24. DeSean Jackson
25. Malcom Floyd
26. Vincent Jackson
27. Demaryius Thomas
28. Torrey Smith
29. Larry Fitzgerald
30. Donnie Avery

Tight Ends:

1. Rob Gronkowski: Hernandez is gone, so Gronk reclaims his top spot in the rankings.
2. Jimmy Graham: Could just refer to this as 1A.
3. Vernon Davis: It looks like the 49ers receivers are running routes just to get Davis open.
4. Brandon Pettigrew: You saw what a backup tight end did to the Titans’ defense right?
5. Antonio Gates: Rivers will feed Gates often to show that he is still the Chargers number one tight end.
6. Jason Witten
7. Martellus Bennett
8. Tony Gonzalez
9. Dennis Pitta
10. Jermichael Finley
11. Owen Daniels
12. Jacob Tamme
13. Jermaine Gresham
14. Brent Celek
15. Heath Miller
16. Fred Davis
17. Scott Chandler
18. Kyle Rudolph
19. Jared Cook
20. Greg Olsen

Defenses/Special Teams:

1. 49ers
2. Steelers
3. Texans
4. Jets
5. Eagles
6. Cardinals
7. Packers
8. Lions
9. Ravens
10. Cowboys
11. Bills
12. Bears
13. Seahawks
14. Falcons
15. Broncos
16. Browns
17. Dolphins
18. Patriots
19. Giants
20. Rams

Picks:

Giants vs Panthers

Rams vs Bears

Bills vs Browns

Buccaneers vs Cowboys

Lions vs Titans

Jaguars vs Colts

Jets vs Dolphins

49ers vs Vikings

Chiefs vs Saints

Bengals vs Redskins

Eagles vs Cardinals

Falcons vs Chargers

Texans vs Broncos

Steelers vs Raiders

Patriots vs Ravens (Sunday night game)

Packers vs Seahawks (Monday night game)

Last week: 8-8

Season: 15-17 (rough start)

That is going to do it for this edition of the Report. Make sure to stay tuned to the Report’s twitter account for injury updates. As always, please subscribe to the Report using the button on the upper right side of the column, please follow the Report on twitter @mikesfbreport (a button to do so is located on the right hand side), and send any feed back to mikesfootballreport@gmail.com. Thanks for reading this edition of the Report. Feel free to share this column on Facebook or Twitter using the buttons located at the bottom of the column (if you are viewing this from the main blog page, you have to open the actual column by clicking the title in order to see those buttons).

I keep thinking that Atlanta at (-3) is easy and they’re a much better team, even with P. Manning on the Broncos. This unfortunately happens most years and everyone thinks M. Ryan is a better QB than when he’s actually on the field. I have an eery feeling taking the Broncos though since they’re going to Atlanta. I decided I’ll take the over (51) because Ryan showed a good no huddle in week 1 (albeit v the Chiefs) and Manning can do the same with his eyes closed. If the game stays close (within two scores) I would expect an outburst by both teams in the second half. Could be a nail bitter, I say Falcons take it 28-24 .

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Well that one stunk, I was right on about the halftime difference and should’ve taken the Falcons all along but when they scored again to start the 3rd quarter I didn’t see P. Manning coming back like his brother did v. the Bucs.

There is no doubt that a victory in Italy would provide the perfect fillip ahead of the Ryder Cup, pickings have been lean in recent times for all three players, Molinari did win the Spanish Open back in May and was runner up for two weeks running at the French Open at Alston and then the Scottish Open in Inverness and is currently ranked at number 30 in the world. Molinari, who won this tournament in 2006 will be playing in front of his home crowd and as such is a worthy favourite with odds of 8/1.

Kaymer has plummeted down the world rankings from the number one spot in December 2010 to a current number 32 after coming through a turgid and hugely disappointing 2012 during which his best finish was a tie for 7th place at the Malaysian Open. He owes his pace in the Ryder Cup team to his form in 2011 but he recognises that he has a chance of regaining his lost confidence by a big performance in this event this week and is a 20/1 shot to win the tournament.

Of the three, Colsaerts has probably made the most progress in 2012, the Belgian number one has enjoyed three top 20 finishes in his last three events and earlier this season won the Volvo World Match-Play for his biggest win to date on tour. In all, he has finished in the top ten no less than ten times in 2012 which explains why he is as short as 11/1 to win this week.

Other notable Italians who will be hoping to win on home soil include Matteo Manessero, who has the ability to make his expected breakthrough into the higher echelons of the golfing world anytime soon. There is also the somewhat enigmatic Eduardo Molinari, a Ryder Cup player himself in 2010 but now down to 189th in the world rankings after two tortuous years on tour. Both could make a bid for the title this week and both will enjoy huge home support. Both look like they could be trusted by punters this week, where Manessero looks exceptional value an 11/2 in the Place Market and Eduardo Molinari is certainly worth backing in the Top Ten Finish market also with odds of 11/2.

As far as the winner is concerned punters could do a lot worse than Kaymer, he showed a few hints last week at the KLM tournament that he was finding some form. He eventually tied for 21st place but on paper is comfortably the best player in this particular field. At 20/1, he is too good a price to ignore!

Italian Open selection

Martin Kaymer @ 20/1

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Quarterbacks:

1. Tom Brady: With all the weapons that Tom has, it is going to be hard to slow him down.
2. Aaron Rodgers: The Packers may have lost last week, but Rodgers still got his numbers.
3. Cam Newton: We all saw what RG3 did to the Saints last week, and I wouldn’t be shocked by a similar performance by Cam.
4. Matt Ryan: As long as White and Jones are healthy, Ryan is a top 5 play.
5. Tony Romo: Kevin Kolb started to look good against the Seahawks defense towards the end of the game …… Kevin Kolb.
6. Peyton Manning
7. Drew Brees
8. Robert Griffin III
9. Jay Cutler
10. Matthew Stafford
11. Eli Manning
12. Andy Dalton
13. Ben Roethlisberger
14. Philip Rivers
15. Matt Schaub
16. Alex Smith
17. Joe Flacco
18. Michael Vick
19. Christian Ponder
20. Matt Cassel

Running Backs:

1. Adrian Peterson: He looked healthy last week, and the Bears managed 3 TDs against the Colts in Week 1.
2. Ray Rice: Whether the Ravens are ahead or behind in a game, Rice is going to get his touches.
3. Arian Foster: Foster looked good in week one, but you have to wonder if Tate will see more carries this week.
4. Darren McFadden: Even when the Raiders pass the ball, McFadden is their number 1 guy.
5. Matt Forte: Gore had a good game against the Packers last week, and the defense is on short rest. Forte is still the Bears best offensive weapon.
6. LeSean McCoy
7. C.J. Spiller
8. Demarco Murray
9. Jamaal Charles
10. Ahmad Bradshaw
11. Maurice Jones-Drew
12. Marshawn Lynch
13. Stevan Ridley
14. Frank Gore
15. Steven Jackson
16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
17. Alfred Morris
18. Doug Martin
19. Chris Johnson
20. Darren Sproles
21. Reggie Bush
22. Michael Turner
23. Donald Brown
24. Michael Bush
25. Trent Richardson
26. Willis McGahee
27. Peyton Hillis
28. Cedric Benson
29. Ben Tate
30. Jonathan Dwyer

Wide Receivers:

1. Julio Jones: He doesn’t have the best match up in the world, but the Falcons have enough weapons to keep the defense busy enough for Julio to get open.
2. Andre Johnson: As long as he is healthy, he is one of the best receivers in the NFL. The Jags defense wasn’t that impressive in week 1.
3. Calvin Johnson: He has an unfavorable match up with the 49ers’ defense and he may be injured, but he is still Calvin Johnson.
4. Brandon Marshall: Randy Moss was able to score against the Packers defense on a busted coverage play. I bet that happens again this week.
5. A.J. Green: It is only a matter of time before he breaks a long TD. It didn’t happen in week 1, so my money is on this week
6. Steve Smith (Car)
7. Percy Havin
8. Jordy Nelson
9. Victor Cruz
10. Larry Fitzgerald
11. Pierre Garcon
12. Brandon Lloyd
13. Roddy White
14. Hakeem Nicks
15. Dez Bryant
16. Stevie Johnson
17. Wes Welker
18. Randall Cobb
19. Demaryius Thomas
20. Antonio Brown
21. Dwayne Bowe
22. Miles Austin
23. Marques Colston
24. Torrey Smith
25. Mike Wallace
26. Kevin Ogletree
27. Randy Moss
28. Eric Decker
29. Jeremy Maclin
30. Reggie Wayne

Tight Ends:

1. Jimmy Graham: He isn’t fighting another tight end for touchdowns.
2. Rob Gronkowski: He is fighting Hernandez for looks, but he will still get all the targets he needs for a good day.
3. Aaron Hernandez: Yes, I think both NE tight ends score again this week.
4. Jermichael Finley: The Bears struggled to cover tight ends. If Finley can manage to hold onto the ball, he should have a good day.
5. Antonio Gates: Philip Rivers will always target Gates as long as he can stay on the field.
6. Brandon Pettigrew
7. Vernon Davis
8. Jacob Tamme
9. Jason Witten
10. Colby Fleener
11. Tony Gonzalez
12. Owen Daniels
13. Greg Olsen
14. Martellus Bennett
15. Jermaine Gresham
16. Jared Cook
17. Kyle Rudolph
18. Dennis Pitta
19. Heath Miller
20. Mercedes Lewis

Defenses/special teams:

1. Texans
2. Patriots
3. Ravens
4. 49ers
5. Cowboys
6. Redskins
7. Steelers
8. Bengals
9. Jets
10. Giants
11. Raiders
12. Eagles
13. Seahawks
14. Lions
15. Chiefs
16. Chargers
17. Vikings
18. Packers
19. Bears
20. Bills

Kickers Note:

Usually I won’t rank kickers, but Greg Zuerlein has been great for the Rams, has received rave reviews throughout the preseason, didn’t miss last week, and warms up from midfield. Considering the Rams offense usually stalls at the opponent’s 40, he might have a shot at being a top 5 guy this year.

Picks (my pick in bold):

Bears at Packers

Raiders at Dolphins

Texans at Jaguars

Browns at Bengals

Chiefs at Bills

Ravens at Eagles

Vikings at Colts

Buccaneers at Giants

Saints at Panthers

Cardinals at Patriots

Redskins at Rams

Cowboys at Seahawks

Titans at Chargers

Jets at Steelers

Lions at 49ers (Sunday night game)

Broncos at Falcons (Monday night game)

Last Week: 7-9

Season Record: 7-9

That is going to do it for this edition of the Report. Stay tuned to the Report’s twitter account for game-day injury and play updates. As always, please subscribe to the blog using the button on the upper right side of the column, please follow the Report on twitter @mikesfbreport (a button to do so is located on the right hand side), and send any feed back to mikesfootballreport@gmail.com. Thanks for reading this edition of the Report. Feel free to share this column on Facebook or Twitter using the buttons located at the bottom of the column (if you are viewing this from the main blog page, you have to open the actual column by clicking the title in order to see those buttons).

Rory McIlroy sits well clear at the top of the standings on 4,799 points after winning last week and he is the favourite to continue his great form and win again this week. Should he do so, then it is almost inevitable that he will be the FedEx Cup Champion of 2012.

His closest rival is Nick Watney on 3,468 points with Tiger Woods third on 3,417. Inevitably, the Americans dominate the Standings Board, with only McIlroy and Louis Oosthuizen (5th) being the only two non-Americans making the top ten.

The field gets whittled down again this week with only the top 30 in the Standings going forward to contest the final Play-Off, the Tour Championship at EastLake in Atlanta, starting 20th September.

The defending champion this week is Britain’s Justin Rose, but his win 12 months ago came at the Cog Hill Golf course which has been changed this year due to its close proximity to the Ryder Cup venue. Rose is well down the list in the FedEx Cup standings in 21^st place but knows that a repeat win this year will catapult him into the top ten and who knows where by the end of the Play-Offs.

Clearly, McIlroy, Oosthuizen, Tiger Woods all come into this week’s tournament in great form. They finished 1-2-3 last week and looked to be the best three players over the four day period. Phil Mickelson also played well in the Deutsche Bank at TCP Boston but he will need to stamp out his tendency to throw in the odd wild one if he is to get anywhere close to winning.

Lee Westwood, who had lost his form considerably since the Open Championship showed signs that his tee to green play was back where it belonged and he will be close this week should this aspect of his game continue to improve. He also putted well in the final round in the ‘Deutsche’ which makes him very backable to win this week with odds of 25/1.

Luke Donald is also not out of things despite losing his world number 1 spot. He remains deadly accurate with his approaches and if his putter becomes hot, he will be in serious contention. He too is a 25/1 shot.

Dustin Johnson would be another to consider if making a bet on this week’s tournament. Johnson won this event two years ago and was in good form last week. His length off the tee this week should work to his advantage and at 14/1 it is clear that the Bookmakers are concerned about his ability on a course like Crooked Stick.

Punters are also advised to look out for those American players who fail to get a ‘pick’ for the Ryder Cup from captain, Davis Love lll. The seven potential picks are all playing this week and those that are left out by Love will be seriously anxious to teach him a lesson by winning this week. After all, it is one of those situations that happen often in sport and it would be no surprise to see it happening again.

However, Rory McIlroy set the standard and is clearly the form pick and he is the selection to win at Crooked Stick this week. He can be backed at odds of 6/1.

Quarterbacks:

1. Tom Brady: The loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl is still going to be on Tom and Bill’s minds, and Tom has a new toy to play with (Lloyd). I expect the Patriots come out and send a message to the rest of the league.
2. Aaron Rodgers: Speaking of sending messages to the league, guess who the other team is that happens to be a little upset about how last year ended.
3. Matthew Stafford: Until they prove otherwise, I am going to stick with my “start everybody against the Rams (except for tight ends)” theory from last year.
4. Drew Brees: The Saints are another team that wants to send a message early, and they want to get people talking about something other than bounties. Their coach may be gone, but this has always been Brees’ team.
5. Matt Ryan: Julio Jones has looked incredible in the preseason, and was good last year when he was healthy. In case you haven’t caught the theme yet, the Falcons are still upset by last year’s playoff game.
6. Cam Newton
7. Michael Vick
8. Philip Rivers
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning
11. Tony Romo
12. Robert Griffin III
13. Russell Wilson
14. Matt Shaub
15. Andrew Luck
16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. Jake Locker
18. Joe Flacco
19. Jay Cutler
20. Sam Bradford

Running Backs:

1. Darren McFadden: While he has rarely been healthy, he completely takes over games when he is good to go. All signs point to him being back.
2. LeSean McCoy: Look for the Eagles to protect Vick with a lot of short passes since he kept getting hurt in the preseason. Shady is always a threat to take one to the house.
3. Arian Foster: Another guy who dominates when he is healthy. Expect to see enough Ben Tate to keep Foster fresh, which should help him in the long run this season.
4. Chris Johnson: CJ2K had an off year last year, but he gets a shaky Patriots defense to get warmed up with this year.
5. Ray Rice: Rice has a tough match up against the Bengals defense, but he is the Ravens offense, so he will get enough touches for a good day.
6. Marshawn Lynch (if he plays) / Jamaal Charles
7. Steven Jackson
8. Matt Forte
9. Fred Jackson
10. DeMarco Murray
11. Ahmad Bradshaw
12. Darren Sproles
13. Reggie Bush
14. Frank Gore
15. Kevin Smith
16. Michael Turner
17. Doug Martin
18. Rashad Jennings
19. Toby Gerhart (assuming Peterson does not play)
20. Donald Brown
21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
22. Trent Richardson
23. Peyton Hillis
24. C.J. Spiller
25. Cedric Benson
26. DeAngelo Williams
27. Stevan Ridley
28. Ronnie Brown
29. Maurice Jones-Drew
30. Ben Tate

Wide Receivers:

1. Calvin Johnson: The Madden Curse may very well take him this year, but I would still start a one legged Calvin Johnson against the Rams (and he currently has 2 legs).
2. Julio Jones: Julio had an explosive preseason, and I’m sure the Falcons will want to run up to score to try and make people forget that playoff loss.
3. Roddy White: It’s pick your poison this week for the Chiefs’ defense.
4. Andre Johnson: Andre and Schaub are finally healthy together, it is time to remind everybody of how dangerous they can be.
5. Antonio Brown: Mike Wallace came back just in time to take the coverage away from Brown.
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Greg Jennings
8. Percy Harvin
9. Brandon Lloyd
10. Victor Cruz
11. Dez Bryant
12. A.J. Green
13. Pierre Garcon
14. Steve Smith (CAR)
15. Wes Welker
16. Brandon Marshall
17. Demaryius Thomas
18. Jordy Nelson
19. Steve Johnson
20. Marques Colston
21. Hakeem Nicks
22. Jeremy Maclin
23. Mike Wallace
24. Vincent Jackson
25. Eric Decker
26. Torrey Smith
27. Titus Young
28. Miles Austin
29. Dwayne Bowe
30. Kendall Wright

Tight Ends:

1. Jimmy Graham: Brees is going to unleash Graham this year, and have a shot of taking out Gronk’s record if they want to.
2. Rob Gronkowski: Teams will probably try to contain him more this year …… good luck
3. Aaron Hernandez: Guess who is open while they focus on Gronk.
4. Antonio Gates: Philip Rivers finally has his best friend back and healthy, these two could have quite the year.
5. Jermichael Finley: The Packers should feed Finley early and often to make him forget the drops from last year.
6. Fred Davis
7. Owen Daniels
8. Greg Olsen
9. Jacob Tamme
10. Colby Fleener
11. Vernon Davis
12. Tony Gonzalez
13. Brent Celek
14. Kyle Rudolph
15. Brandon Pettigrew
16. Dustin Keller
17. Ed Dickson
18. Martellus Bennett
19. Scott Chandler
20. Jared Cook

Defense/Special Teams:

1. Seahawks
2. Bills
3. Eagles
4. Texans
5. Lions
6. Ravens
7. Bears
8. Falcons
9. Packers
10. Vikings
11. Steelers
12. Jaguars
13. Giants
14. Jets
15. Broncos
16. Chargers
17. Panthers
18. 49ers
19. Patriots
20. Cardinals

Picks (winners in bold):

Cowboys at Giants

Colts at Bears

Falcons at Chiefs

Eagles at Browns

Redskins at Saints

Rams at Lions

Patriots at Titans

Jaguars at Vikings

Bills at Jets

Dolphins at Texans

Seahawks at Cardinals

49ers at Packers

Panthers at Buccaneers

Steelers at Broncos

Bengals at Ravens

Chargers vs Raiders

That is going to do it for this edition of the Report. Stay tuned to the Report’s twitter account for game-day updates (such as Lynch or Ryan Matthews). As always, please subscribe to the blog using the button on the upper right side of the column, please follow the Report on twitter @mikesfbreport (a button to do so is located on the right hand side), and send any feed back to mikesfootballreport@gmail.com. Thanks for reading this edition of the Report. Feel free to share this column on Facebook or Twitter using the buttons located at the bottom of the column (if you are viewing this from the main blog page, you have to open the actual column by clicking the title in order to see those buttons).

I think Carson Palmer will have an unbelievable season this year. People will knock him at some point during the season but keep this in perspective. Do you remember the last good, let alone decent, QB from the Raiders?

Chargers are supposedly taking a simpler approach to the way they play defense. What’s simpler than not using substance that are illegal (Oh Merriman!)? I see their thought process, they have a good offense and need to find somewhere to improve. A change in the defense sounds about right. They don’t want to make anything too complicated, trying to keep the defense simpler because otherwise they would need to process decisions and thinking takes too much time. Is a simpler defense then faster if they don’t need to think? That’ll work until a few teams run the delayed draw (Oakland did this to the Jets last year) and get burned for 400 yards. I would just get smarter defense, that doesn’t use an abacus to do math.

I’m taking the Raaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiders (+1) in a close one!

With the depth in receiving that the Falcons have, Matt Ryan needs to step up and get his team a playoff win. Mike Smith, Falcons head coach, is 0-3 in the playoffs, most recently they were stomped by the Giants 24-2.

As ugly as that score was, I don’t see the Chiefs recovering from last season. Sure they’ve made improvements in their run game but the Falcons have a good run defense. The Chiefs will do alright in the middle of the season, maybe towards the end but I don’t see them as a consistent enough team, that’s good enough to beat the Falcons (yes, I know the Falcons are inconsistent too).

Ryan should be able to put this game away at the end of the third quarter and then the Falcons will most likely rely on their defense to close out the fourth quarter to win it.

Confused? Well here’s my reasoning, The worst team in the NFL the prior season (the Colts 2-14) are absurd in Week 1 ATS. I believe the stat I heard last year was 9-1 ATS (in the last decade) when the prior years worst team is an underdog in Week 1. The reason I was worried about Luck is I thought the spread might be buffered a little from Luck-y bandwagoners (aha) betting the Colts. At +9.5 that seems unlikely.

The Bears are a good team this year and typically good at home. They have revamped their receiving core with Brandon Marshall and, my sleeper for fantasy, Alshon Jeffery. The Colts have found a preseason leader in Luck and seem to be buying into his abilities as a rookie. Both teams have had more time last year to prepare for the season and are ready to play.

A winner

Let’s see if I can prove myself wrong.

I’m taking Montreal Impact at -0.5 (+111). Main reasons: They’re on a 4 game win streak, have had 3 extra days rest than DC, are home, and are looking to not only get themselves in the playoffs but to knock DC out. DC had an ugly, ref-induced tie in Philly a week ago, then took it to Chicago at home and won 4-2. I think that got the tie out of their system and now play in Montreal in 3 days.

That fact that this has playoff implications makes me want to take the over (2.5, -125) but I haven’t been doing to well with those lately. I see this game being decided on who scores in the crucial 10 minutes post halftime but still have a feeling Montreal takes it. I’ll predict 3-1 Montreal to support the over.

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However, this year, the world’s top players will congregate for the final “Major” of 2012, the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course knowing that a score similar to those normally associated with the US Open will probably be enough to win. The reason a high tariff score is expected is simply because the Ocean Course is regarded by many as the toughest course in the United States.

The course is very long, plays to a par of 72 with 10 of its 18 holes running parallel to the sea. Indeed, South Carolina’s Atlantic Coastline is visible from every tee. With the sea in such close proximity, the winds become the most influential aspect on the course; they are usually very strong and blow in no particular direction. The course also has long areas of marsh, which forces players to play the most frightening shots to clear them usually on to greens that are perched precariously on the top of the sand, sea oats and roll resistant Bermuda grass. It was dubbed the “Looney Dunes”, after the European players in particular found it almost impossible to master in the 1991 Ryder Cup. The course was designed by Pete Dye, himself dubbed the “Marquis de Sod” and has the highest Course Rating (79.6) of any in America. The winner this week therefore will have earned his crown, but one cannot help believe that the course will be more about casualties than winners.

Inevitable as always, the favourite to win with odds of around 9/1 is Tiger Woods, with world number one, Luke Donald and world number three, Rory McIlroy contesting next best at 20/1.

Woods has won the PGA Championship four times in the past, the most recent coming in 2007 at Sothern Hills but as good as this tournament has been to Woods, it is also earning a reputation of producing unlikely winners!

The most recent of these of course was defending champion, Keegan Bradley, who won 12 months ago when making his debut in a “Major”. Bradley certainly comes to the tournament in great form having won his first WGC event last week when taking the ‘Bridgestone’. Other unexpected winners were YE Yang in 2009, Shaun Micheel in 2003 and David Toms in 2001.

With the course being so difficult, the winner will be the player who shows the most patience, is able to plot a sensible route around each difficult hole and is extremely accurate off the tee. Finding the green will often become more important than finding the hole in two when on the green but putting as it always is, will become vitally important.

Selecting a winner is almost impossible, cases can be made for many players in the field but certainly the man who has incredible patience and is usually deadly accurate is Luke Donald and he comes to the tournament also in good form and knowing that it is about his time to claim a first “Major” and is the pick to win at Kiawah Island this week at odds of 20/1.

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The field will also include the Republic’s most celebrated golfer, Padraig Harrington, winner of three “Major” titles and who won the Irish Open in 2007 when played at the Adare Manor course inLimerick. The four top Irishmen will be joined byAmerica’s Keegan Bradley, the current USPGA Champion whose deep Irish heritage has enticed him to the tournament. A sixth “Major” champion, Paul Lawrie, winner of the 1999 Open Championship helps make up a seriously strong field that between them, should produce a tournament of epic proportions.

The Royal Portrush Golf Club is the only golf course situated off theUKmainland to have hosted the Open Championship. The one and only time it was played outside ofEnglandorScotlandcame in 1951 when charismatic Englishman, Max Faulkner, lifted the Claret Jug. It is hoped above hope that the return of the Irish Open to Portrush and the continued success of the country’s golfers will go a long way inNorthern Ireland’s bid to host the Open Championship for a second time in the not too distant future.

The Dunluce Links course is considered one of the best courses in the UK and one which Golf Magazine ranked at number 12 in their top 100 courses in the world while Golf Digest have it as the fourth best course in the world outside of the United States.

Over the years, the Irish Open has certainly attracted some of the world’s very best players and past winners include, Sir Nick Faldo, Colin Montgomerie, Christy O’Connor Snr, Christy O’Connor Jnr, Sam Torrance, Bernhard Langer, Ian Woosnam, Seve Ballesteros, Jose Maria Olazabal and Ben Crenshaw to name just a few.

The favourite to win the title is McIlroy who is rated a 7/1 chance with leading Irish Bookmakers Paddy Power, who have McDowell, so close two weeks ago to winning a second US Open, as next best in the betting at odds of 10/1. Harrington is an 11/1 shot and Darren Clarke, who has been hugely out of form this year is given only a 50/1 chance of winning.

Simon Dyson won the Irish Open 12 months ago and the Englishman has been in reasonable form so far in 2012, making the cut in each of the seven tournaments he’s played in and has finished 12th in his past two, the Spanish Open and the BMW International. He could well be worth an each way interest at 33/1 this week and his consistent form should give backers a run for their money in to the final day.

Graeme McDowell is the other selection. The past four winners of this tournament have come from eitherEnglandor the Emerald Isle and that trend can continue in 2012. McDowell has found form difficult to find this year but when he has been on song he’s been in the mix to win the events in which he’s featured. Three top 10 finishes this season, including his second in the US Open last time out is enough to suggest that’s he’s worth siding with in front of his home crowd and 10/1 looks a reasonable reflection of his chances.

2012 Irish Open Picks

Simon Dyson (each way) @ 33/1

Graeme McDowell (each way) @ 10/1

All trends are exist to be broken at some time but it will not be easy for any player to win on this hugely difficult course with a score of around even par likely to be enough by the end of the four rounds on Sunday.

The world’s top three players, all European, will play together for the first two rounds and two of those players, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, come to the tournament with recent wins under their belts. Donald won the PGA Championship at Wentworth a couple of weeks ago, while Westwood won last week at the Nordea Masters in Sweden. Neither has ever won a “Major” before however, although Westwood has been close to winning on many occasions. The third player is defending champion, Rory McIlroy, who, having missed three cuts on the bounce, managed to finish tied 7th place last week in the St Jude Classic.

Westwood in fact played back in 1998 when the tournament was last held at the Olympic Club, finishing in a tie for 7th place behind surprise winner, Lee Janzen, who had come from seven shots behind to defeat the late, great Payne Stewart. That performance gives Westwood a distinct advantage this week and given that he has enjoyed three further top ten finishes at this event, including third places in 2008 and 2011, he looks a very decent pick to take the honours. He is a best price 14/1 chance with British bookmaker William Hill to end his “Major” drought.

Donald has an appalling record at the US Open, with a best place finish of tied 12th back in 2006. Since then he has missed two cuts in 2007 & 2009, withdrew with injury from the 2008 event, finished tied 45th last year and tied 47th in 2010. Hardly a record that would usually win a “Major” tournament.

Steve Stricker was also in the field in the 1998 edition and finished a shot better than Westwood in a tie for fifth place. Stricker has been one of the most consistent players on the US Tour over the last five years and is still ranked number 11 in the world. Stricker is another of the world’ s top players yet to win a “Major” and knows that his chance are diminishing by the tournament but he’s worth backing here at a price of 50/1.

Stricker’s form this season has been good without being spectacular but he did win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January and has enjoyed top ten finishes on three other occasions.

2012 US Open Picks
Lee Westwood (each way) @ 14/1
Steve Stricker (each way) @ 50/1

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The Quail Hollow course is not as popular as some of the other courses on the UStour, with a number of golfers, including Mickelson in 2010, criticising the lay-out of the greens. He famously said “that the 18^th green would be regarded as the worst green on the entire tour with the exception that it was not the worst green on the course”! More romantically the final three holes, dubbed the ‘Green Mile’ play particularly difficult making it one of the toughest finish’s on tour. Mickelson who has yet to win the tournament will be trying again this year finished in a tie for 6^th place 12 months ago just five shots behind Glover

With the exception of a disappointing performance in the USMasters, where he tied for 40^th position, McIlroy has been in great form this year so far. A win at the Honda Classic in early March was followed by a 3^rd place in the WGC Cadillac Championship 2 weeks later. Before the ‘Honda’ he had finished in a tie for 5^th place in the Dubai Desert Classic after he had started his year with a 2^nd place inAbu Dhabi. Now seeking a second win on tour this year he will come to Quail Hollow knowing that he holds the course record of 62 and that he will probably be the man to beat.

Tiger Woods of course will be doing his utmost to win the tournament himself, but he will have needed to have ironed out the few problems he experienced at the ‘Master’ where he tied with McIlroy in 40^th place. Before that of course he had won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and tied second place behind McIlroy in the Honda Classic. Now ranked at number 7 in the world Tiger clearly is finding his way back to the top and a problem free Tiger can win the tournament this week.

Lee Westwood fresh from his victory in the Indonesian Masters a fortnight ago will be hoping that his brilliant tee to green play is operating at full capacity this week. He is without doubt the number one player in the world right now in getting onto the green, but his putting has let him down so many times already this year, particularly at the ‘Masters’ where he ended up tying for 3^rd place when he really should have won. Unless this crucial aspect of his game improves. ‘Westy’ will have to make do with another high finish this week.

Defending champion, Lucas Glover won this tournament after a play-off with Jonathan Byrd last year on the back of missing three cuts in a row. He has achieved very little since with no top ten finishes but he is a very inconsistent golfer capable of producing shock results. It should be remembered that he won the 2009 US Open having never made the cut in that tournament in three previous appearances.

Hunter Mahan, already a dual winner on tour this year and is the highest ranked American in the tournament at number 5. He enjoyed a top 20 finish in the tournament last year and should be capable of a big finish again this week.

Others who would have to be in with big chances this week include Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson and Keegan Bradley and there is also Jonathan Byrd runner up from a year ago. They all like the course and should play well, but the money is going on McIlroy to regain the title and to put himself back on top of the world rankings.

The course has hosted the US Open four times in the past but not since 1998, when no player broke par and only the winner, Lee Janzen, equalled it. However, the course has been significantly altered and lengthened, although it will still play to a par of 70. How the players adapt to these changes remains to be seen but clearly the US Open should prove to be the hardest “Major” of the year to win.

Rory McIlroy will head toSan Franciscoas the favourite to retain the crown he won so impressively 12 months ago at “Congressional”. In winning, he became the youngest US Open Champion in almost a century and broke or equalled 12 other US Open Golf Championship records in the process.

All being well, McIlroy will be up against a fully fit and back to form, Tiger Woods, three times a US Open Champion who will be seeking the fifteenth “Major” title of his career and the golfing world is understandably “licking its lips” in anticipation of the two favourites forging one of golf’s great rivalries, similar to that perhaps of Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson in the late 70s and early 80s. If this should be the case, then the first real showdown, with both players at their best, could well be on the agenda for the start of the tournament on 14th June.

The US Open has seen plenty of first time winners over the last few years, several of whom could be described as “one hit wonders” having all but faded from top level golf ranks since winning. These include Michael Campbell fromNew Zealand, who won in 2005 and Lucas Glover winner in 2009. Even Angel Cabrera ofArgentina, despite surprisingly going on to win at theUSMasters has done very little else since he won the US Open in 2007. McIlroy however, it would appear is made of stronger stuff and there are many tipping him to become a multiple “Major” winner who could even surpass the 14 so far won by Woods. The world number one certainly has the ability and the multi-dimensional game to master any course and even with six weeks to go before the start, he looks like the man they all have to beat.

Europeas always will bring a very strong challenge to the tournament and in fact will be looking to win it for a third year running. McIlroy of course won in 2011 and his Northern Irish compatriot, Graeme McDowell in 2010. They will be joined by the world numbers two and three Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, recent WGC Cadillac winner, Justin Rose, as well as 2010 US PGA Winner, Martin Kaymer.

TheUSplayers will also be very strong, with Woods heading a strong contingent which includes the two left handed “Major” winners, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson, who won the first of this year’s “Majors” theUSMasters atAugustain April. Hunter Mahan, twice a winner on tour this season, Matt Kuchar, Steve Stricker and reigning PGA Champion, Keegan Bradley are all forces to be reckoned with.

These days we should also consider the emerging South African challenge, which comprises the two time US Open winners, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen along with 2011USMasters Champion, Charl Schwartzel and 2010 Open Champion who was also runner up in this year’s “Masters”, Louis Oosthuizen.

These will be just some of the big names at the Olympic Golf Club this year but it should be remembered that the US Open field has 156 players and every one, certainly every one of the professionals are good enough to win it but it is worth siding with Rory McIlroy at this early stage. His current odds to win are as big as 9/1 and it has to be thought that come the week of the event, the young Ulsterman will be much shorter. He didn’t quite hit top gear at Augusta but showed enough to suggest he’s a genuine threat at the very highest level and he can land his second “major” on the West Coast.

The Zurich Classic will provide world number two Luke Donald an opportunity to take on newly crowned US Masters Champion, Bubba Watson, who will be defending the title he won after a play-off with Webb Simpson 12 months ago. Donald, whose consistency throughout 2011 ensured he finished the year as the world number one has thus far produced a mixed bag of results and the Englishman will be keen to find a more consistent level of performance week-in-week-out.

Donald’s best performance came in the Transitions Tournament in March which he won but could only follow up with a disappointing tie for 32nd at the Masters and tie for 37th a fortnight ago in the RBC Heritage. He currently sits at number two in the world rankings and is the 12/1 favourite to win in New Orleans this week.

Bubba Watson meanwhile is returning for his first event since winning his first “Major” three weeks ago. The big hitting left hander, who won the Masters after a play-off with Louis Oosthuizen, has been in great form for most of the year. Before his win at Augusta he came tied 4th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and was runner up behind Justin Rose in the WGC Cadillac in March. He clearly loves the course here in New Orleans and looks to be a very good value bet at around the 14/1 mark to defend his title successfully but he can expect much more attention from the camera and crowd in the process!

Just Rose is also in the field this week, making a total of four top ten players with Steve Stricker being the other. Webb Simpson, who came so close last year, will also be trying to go one better this time around and there has been plenty of support for US PGA Champion, Keegan Bradley.

Over in South Korea it is Australian Adam Scott who at number 12 will be the highest ranked player in the field. He is playing his first tournament since finishing tied 8th at the Masters and only his fifth of the year.

Scott has won eight times on the European Tour in the past with four of those coming in Asia and although not having played in Korea since 2002 he will be all out to emulate compatriot Marcus Fraser who won the Ballentines in 2010. He has been made the 17/2 favourite to do just that, while Fraser, who will also be out to regain the trophy is a 40/1 shot.

Ian Poulter and Paul Casey head the European challenge, with Poulter in particular attracting plenty of support in the antepost betting to win. He is now as short as 14/1. He too had an excellent US Masters tournament, finishing in 7th place and before that he was third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Casey meanwhile is still looking to find his form after a skiing injury kept him on the sidelines for several months. He has plummeted down the rankings having missed the cut in his last four events including the ‘Masters’ and the Volvo China Open last week and is now down to 45 in the World Rankings. Needless to say he is in desperate need of a good performance with the 40/1 odds reflecting his current plight.

The home side will be represented by 2010 US PGA Champion, YE Yang and the highly gifted Bae Sang-Moon who came to prominence earlier this year in America by achieving a quarter final place in the WGC Accenture World Match-Ply and a second place in the Transitions Championship. He is currently ranked at 32 in the world and is a 22/1 shot to win on home soil this week, while Yang can be backed at 25/1.

This Week’s Golf Picks
Bubba Watson to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans @ 14/1
Ian Poulter to win the Ballantines Championship @ 14/1

The defending champion is Belgian, Nicolas Colsaerts, currently ranked at number 68 in the world and a player who has shown solid form so far this year. He finished 20th in the Race in 2011 and is currently in 14th place having secured four top ten finishes already so far this year.

The favourite to win however is Englishman Ian Poulter, making a rare appearance outside of the US PGA Tour. Poulter has shown some very encouraging form lately, finishing third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the end of last month before securing an excellent seventh place at theUSMasters two weeks ago. He is currently ranked at 25th in the world, he is 28th in the Race toDubaiand is quoted with odds currently of 14/1 to win this week.

Ryder Cup star Peter Hanson is next in the market at 16/1 and like Poulter, he has been in excellent form so far this year. He has achieved four top ten finishes in 2012, the most notable being his outstanding tie for third place at theUSMasters a fortnight ago. He is currently in fourth place in the Race toDubaimaking him the highest placed player playing this tournament this week.

Others featuring prominently in the market are Francesco Molinari of Italy and Paul Lawrie of Scotland, already a winner on tour this year. Molinari quoted at 20/1 to win the China Open has been consistent this year without being spectacular, four top twenty finishes in his last four tournaments, including the Masters, confirms his solid form but whether he can make the breakthrough for a first win since he took the WGC HSBC World Championship in November 2010. Lawrie meanwhile the winner of the Qatar Masters in February and who performed well last week at the Masters finishing in 24th place. He is currently in 7th place in the “Race” and a 33/1 chance to win this week.

As far as the Race to Dubai standings is concerned it is now Rory McIlroy who heads affairs on €1, 348, who is narrowly ahead of Louis Oosthuizen, who has rocketed into the number two spot after his epic US Masters Runner Up performance and his equally impressive globe-trotting victory in Malaysia a week later. The South African who is taking a well earned rest this week is on €1,293, a mere €36,000 ahead of third placed Justin Rose who also achieved a top ten finish at Augusta and won the WGC Cadillac earlier this year.

In fourth place as mentioned above is Hanson with Lee Westwood, tied third at the Masters in fifth place both with over € 900,000 in prize money this far and they are well clear of Brandon Grace who is hanging on, after his two wins earlier this season on the ‘Sunshine Tour’, to his top six place with just over €650,000.

Volvo China Open Picks

Peter Hanson @ 16/1 e/w

Francesco Molinari  @ 20/1 ew

Paul Lawrie @ 33/1 e/w