In this morning’s industry note, Piper Jaffray feels confident with its prediction of 5% year over year growth for eCommerce sales during the 2009 holiday shopping season based on easy y/y comparisons, the snow storm, comScore’s 4% Holiday Shopping 2009 growth numbers, and Coremetrics’ 6% Holiday Shopping 2009 growth numbers.

Coremetrics also reported extremely strong numbers for late last week:

-Online retail sales from Mon., Dec. 14 – Sun., Dec. 20, 2009 were up 14.6 percent compared to Mon., Dec. 15 – Sun., Dec. 21, 2008 (year-over-year).
-Online retail sales for Fri., Dec. 18, 2009 and Sat., Dec. 19, 2009 were up 24 percent compared to Fri., Dec. 19 and Sat., Dec. 20, 2008.
-Online retail sales for Sun., Dec. 20, 2009 were up 20 percent from Sun., Dec. 21, 2008.

I think some of this could be because of the snow storm that blanketed the East coast. Usually the last week tapers off a bit more due to shipping deadlines.

Back to PJ’s report, Gene Munster’s group is now predicting “8% retail eCommerce sales growth in 2010 as the economy improves and retail share gains reaccelerate.”

Google’s (GOOG) gravity defying numbers shattered the models of no less than ten major Wall St. Analyst firms causing them to raise price targets. The lowest of these recent ratings implies a 10.5% upside based on Friday’s closing price and the highest estimate would provide a 27.3% gain.

See Below:
Stifel Nicolaus raised target to $650
Barclays (BCS) raised target to $620
FBR raised target to $680
Piper Jaffray (PJC) raised target to $623
Kaufman Bros. raised target to $645
UBS raised target to $635
JP Morgan & Chase (JPM) raised target to $608
Goldman Sachs (GS) raised target to $635
BofA (BAC) raised target to $640
Citi (C) raised target to $640
Benchmark raised target to $625
Canaccord Adams raised target to $700 (Street High)

Disclosure: Long GOOG

At least one analyst thinks Apple (s aapl) may have sold fewer iPhones last quarter than current estimates suggest, but not because no one wants an iPhone 3GS, quite the opposite.

As the numbers from research firm Canalys indicate, there is no customer shortage for the iPhone 3GS. According to senior analyst Pete Cunningham, “Apple has revolutionized the smart phone sector, leapfrogging more experienced rivals.” In North America, that leapfrogging has put Apple ahead of everyone but RIM (s rimm), whose market share remained flat, and there’s more good news. According to Canalys, touchscreens are now the preferred interface for smartphones, accounting for 40 percent of all shipments, and Apple is the undisputed leader when it comes to multi-touch and the user interface. The only problem may be that Apple has been too successful.

While the consensus for iPhone sales in the third quarter is around seven million units sold, a pair of analysts are raising concerns. Via AppleInsider, Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray referenced Apple’s conference call from July, at which it was stated supplies of the iPhone 3GS were constrained. Munster is also concerned about supplies for the international market. Apple’s wireless partner in Italy has suggested the company could double sales from 20,000 units sold per month were supplies available. Nonetheless, Munster is still predicting iPhone sales in excess of 7 million units.

Via Apple 2.0, Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner is not so optimistic. His concern stems from comments made by Steve Jobs at the Apple music event last month in which it was “implied that ~3.5M phones had been sold with only 21 days left in the quarter.” That number is derived from Jobs remarking that 30 million iPhones had been sold since 2007, then subtracting the 26.5 million that have been reported in earnings statements. That’s a tenuous assumption, but Reiner still appears to be pulling back from his low-ball estimate of 6 million iPhones for the quarter.

It’s hard to imagine Apple keeping real iPhone shortages a secret. More likely, Steve Jobs was rounding down, and on Monday we’ll find out Apple has sold somewhere between seven and eight million iPhones, and probably closer to eight million. Even if Apple is working against iPhone supply constraints due to popularity, that’s the kind of problem beleaguered Microsoft (s msft) and Windows Mobile would love to have.

Photo: Apple Inc.

Apple (AAPL) tends to score well in Piper Jaffray’s “Taking Stock With Teens” reports, but the results of PFC’s 18th semi-annual survey, released Tuesday, suggest that American teenagers are growing even more loyal to the Apple brand.

iPhones, iPods and iTunes emerged as clear winners in the Minneapolis-based brokerage house’s study of the music and cellphone buying preferences of some 600 middle-class and upper middle-class teens.

“It’s really a story about Apple,” said Andrew Murphy, representing Piper Jaffray’s technology team. “Apple continues to dominate.”

Among the findings:

• 15% of the teens surveyed own an iPhone, up from 8% six months ago
• 22% planned to buy an iPhone in the next six months, up from 16% in April
• 87% own an iPod, up slightly from last year
• Of the 40% of teens who plan to buy an MP3 player in the next 12 months, 74% intend to buy an iPod and 13% a Microsoft (MSFT) Zune
• Most teenagers (57%) still download their music over peer-to-peer networks, but of those who buy their digital music legally, 93% use iTunes

If there was a weak spot in the survey for Apple, it was in the video games report. Despite Cupertino’s concerted effort to market the iPod touch as a game machine, the console is still king among American teenagers. Fully 65% of those surveyed said they were unwilling to buy cellphone games, just slightly less than the 69% who said they had no interest in PC games.

The 600 high school students questioned about iPhones, MP3 players and online music were part of a larger survey of 11,200 teenagers interviewed online and in school. The 1,200 teens in the school survey came from households with an average income of $74,000 a year, representing the top 30% of U.S. households.

The 10,000 teens in the online survey — Piper Jaffray’s largest to date — came from households with an average income of $52,000, which is closer to the U.S. median ($42,000).

“We believe that the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth in the digital music and mobile markets,” wrote Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster in a report to clients issued Tuesday afternoon, “and Apple is taking its leading position in music and mobile markets.”

iPhones Overload AT&T’s Network, Angering Customers
“Slim and sleek as it is, the iPhone is really the Hummer of cellphones. It’s a data guzzler. Owners use them like minicomputers, which they are, and use them a lot. Not only do iPhone owners download applications, stream music and videos and browse the Web at higher rates than the average smartphone user, but the average iPhone owner can also use 10 times the network capacity used by the average smartphone user. “They don’t even realize how much data they’re using,” said Gene Munster, a senior securities analyst with Piper Jaffray. The result is dropped calls, spotty service, delayed text and voice messages and glacial download speeds as AT&T’s cellular network strains to meet the demand. Another result is outraged customers.”

Photo: Eric’s iPhone

iPhone Straining AT&T Network (mobile.slashdot.org)

About: Pentair is a diversified operating company headquartered in Minnesota. Its Water Group is a global leader in providing innovative products and systems used worldwide in the movement, treatment, storage and enjoyment of water. Pentair’s Technical Products Group is a leader in the global enclosures and thermal management markets, designing and manufacturing thermal management products and standard, modified, and custom enclosures that house and protect sensitive electronics and electrical components. With 2008 revenues of $3.35 billion, Pentair employs approximately 13,400 people worldwide.

www.pentair.com

Key Personnel:
Randall J. Hogan, Chairman & CEO
Louis L. Ainsworth, Senior VP, General Counsel and Secretary
Frederick S. Koury, Senior VP, Human Resources
Michael V. Shrock, President & COO
John L. Stauch, Executive VP & CFO

Business:
Flow Technologies – provide pump and systems solutions for the water and wastewater industries.
Filtration – provide systems for the treatment and filtration of air, gas, water and other fluids.
Pool – manufacture swimming pool and spa equipment and accessories.
Technical Products – leader in global enclosures and thermal management markets, designing and manufacturing products and accessories to house and protect sensitive electronics and electrical components.

News:
Pentair will be hosting an Investor and Analyst Day in New York on Thursday, 3 Sep 2009 from 10am to 3pm Eastern Time (starts about 3pm London time). We’ll try to listen to its live audio webcast on that day; so you can check it out as well.

On 16 July 2009, Pentair was awarded a $65 million contract to provide 13 of the company’s Fairbanks Morse pumps to the US Army Corps of Engineers for the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway West Closure Complex in New Orleans, La. This is the largest contract ever for Pentair and it is one of more than a dozen major flood control projects Fairbanks has won in the last several years.

In Jan 2009, Pentair increased its quarterly cash dividend of 1 cent per share, effective of first quarter of 2009. The new quarterly cash dividend rate – $0.18 per share as compared to the previous $0.17 per share – represents a 6% increase. Pentair increased its dividend for the 33rd consecutive year. Prior to that, Pentair increased its quarterly cash dividend from $0.15 per share to $0.17 per share effective first quarter of 2008, a 13% increase. Comment: I’m not sure why Pentair is trying to maintain this record of increasing dividends annually despite declining earnings since Q3 2008. Also, in Dec 2008, Pentair said it would cut about 1,600 jobs – or over 10% of its workforce – as it braces for a 15% drop in profit in 2009.

You can check out Pentair’s presentation for Piper Jaffray Clean Technology and Renewables Conference in Feb 2009 and also its latest Q2 2009 earnings presentation in Jul 2009.

Source: Pentair

A dart-throwing investor would have had a good chance to make money investing in small investment banks recently.  We’ve looked at this specialized sector several times in the past, and of course in the Bad Old Times these stocks were as depressed as any in the market.  But recently the number of multiple-base hits and long balls has been increasing.

San Francisco-based Merriman Curhan Ford (Nasdaq: MERR; http://www.merrimanco.com/) is a case in point.  The full-service investment bank has become the market leader in PAL services for the OTCQX top-end Pink Sheets market, and they have carved out several industry niches, including a strong bid for the smaller deals in the greentech space (near and dear to us).  Recently they have announced some registered-direct deals that look interesting.  MERR shares closed yesterday at $0.63 (about a double from the low), vs a year-high of $1.46, but the stock has been tending to the upside pretty strongly.   Still, the market cap is only $8 million, which may make it worth a closer look.

Houston-based Sanders Morris Harris Group (Nasdaq: SMHG, http://www.smhg.net/) has always had a strong mandate in energy and more recently in alt-energy, and has a very oil-y gas-y customer base.  Recently under the leadership of George L Ball, they have been focusing more on asset management, and have announced their intention to sell off most of the investment banking group to Siwanoy Capital, after taking impairment charges on that group throughout the financial downturn.  SMHG has rebounded to $5.95 after a Feb low of about $3.76 and a 52-week high of $11.07.  Market cap is about $170 million.

Miami-based Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services (Amex: LTS, http://www.ladenburg.com/), also a full-service financial services and investment banking firm, has also done a near-double from its springtime lows, with shares closing yesterday at $0.75 and a market cap of about $125 million.  LTS has been active in SPACs, and in the placement of public and private debt, and is now the parent of well-regarded healthcare boutique Punk Ziegel.

NYC-based Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN, http://www.cowen.com/), after a March low of about $3.59, has rebounded to a close yesterday at $6.70, no doubt due at least in part to its recent deal with Ramius LLC, a large asset manager that has partnered with Cowen (Ramius is now the control shareholder).  But clearly the combination is being seen favorably, and Cowen is a good old name as well — and with some smart bankers in its chosen niches of healthcare, technology, greentech, communications, and aerospace/defense.  COWN shares trade about 150,000 per day, and the market cap is just over $100 million.

Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC, http://www.piperjaffray.com/) would have been a long ball if you bought it at the springtime low in the teens.  PJC is now trading at $50.65, near its highs, with a market cap just a hair below $1 billion, and daily trading in the range of 210,000 shares.  Founded in the 19th century and later acquired, it was spun out of US Bancorp a few years back, and has an enviable reputation as a full-service investment bank for tech, healthcare, media, telecom, alt-energy and financial services.  Good research staff.  And probably good upside from these prices.

Portland OR-based Paulson Capital Corp (Nasdaq: PLCC, http://www.paulsoninvestment.com/) has rebounded very nicely as well, thank you very much.   After trading as low as $0.80 in late spring, the shares closed at $1.95 yesterday, though admittedly on very low volume.  Longtime leader Chet Paulson must have been smiling when he announced a profit of $0.18 for the 2nd quarter versus a wrenching loss in the year-earlier period, and the company has announced some deals recently in the smallcap, nanocap tech sector that has become a hallmark of Paulson deals.  Paulson also runs the Westergaard Waldorf conferences, founded by brilliant and insightful John Westergaard 30 or so years ago.

A complicated story, but worth studying, is Arlington VA-based FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM, http://www.fbrcapitalmarkets.com/).  FBR, whose initials originally stood for Friedman Billings Ramsey, has been through the wars regarding financial peril, but maintains its position as a high-toned investment bank, though a youngster in a field populated largely by oldsters.  FBCM is trading at $5.27 for a market cap of about $330 million, and trading volume of about 225,000 shares.  FBR recently separated from a company now known as Arlington Asset Management, which is the largest holder of FBCM.  A recently filed registration statement will free up Arlington to divest its holdings, which may mean some significant blocks could be available. 

We never advise people to buy, sell or hold — we simply look at interesting companies and comment on them.  Please look carefully before jumping into the water — make sure there are no rocks under the surface, no alligators, and no toxic substances.  We like the small investment banks; they are full of smart people prepared to take judicious risks, but do your diligence please.

Here is a recent article from CNN.

“If you have been an investor in technology IPOs in recent months you’ve done well.

Starting in April, and really gathering momentum this summer, there has been a slew of tech companies that leapt through the public market window including Changyou (CYOU), Rosetta Stone (RST), OpenTable (OPEN), and most recently Emdeon (EM).”

The article continues,

“Right now in Silicon Valley, investment bankers are busy making the rounds of promising portfolio companies trying to convince them of the wisdom of an IPO. There is always the question of what kind of company can – or should – go public. During the last wave of tech IPOs, after the dotcom bust, the rule of thumb was that firms with $100 million in revenue and profitability were IPO candidates.

Investment bankers on the prowl in Silicon Valley

Now, according to one prominent venture capitalist who asked to remain anonymous, investment bankers are telling him, “If a company can show revenue of $15 million per quarter, a good business model – and if not profitability, a path to profits – they can deliver an oversubscribed offering.” (One wonders wonder whether these simply are investment bankers who have had nothing to do for the last 12 months, trying to make their bonus figures.)

Venture capitalists have not had much to be happy about, either. It wasn’t just IPOs, but acquisitions that came to a screeching halt during the recession. Both of these groups desperately want the IPO window to stay open, and so far it is.”

And concludes,

“In Google’s day it was bulge-bracket investment banks – Morgan Stanley (MS), CSFB (CS), Goldman (GS), Lehman Bros or no one. The economics of the banks (characterized as going “down-market” to even do $500 million IPOs) required bigger deals. Today’s deals, with their much more modest size, are better tailored for the boutique banks – Thomas Weisel Partners, Jeffries, JMP Securities, Piper Jaffray, and the like. These are the banks pounding the streets in Silicon Valley the hardest.

Could it all end badly? Of course, and usually it does when the rush toward IPOs at some point sends half-baked companies into the public markets and they tank. But between now and then we are likely to see a group of very high quality tech companies look to go public – think Greenplum, LinkedIn, Pacific Biosciences and Zynga among many others.

For those investors with the stomach, it might not get much better.”

This NYT story isn’t news for anyone who’s been following solar power and the technical breakthroughs and real-world suppliers (many in China as the article points out) the industry has seen the last few years. 

It is an interesting read and lays out a lot considerations for going solar — particularly for residential structures.

From the first link:

But the cost of solar panels has plunged lately, changing the economics for many homeowners. Mr. Hare ended up paying $77,000 for a large solar setup that he figures might have cost him $100,000 a year ago.

“I just thought, ‘Wow, this is an opportunity to do the most for the least,’ ” Mr. Hare said.

For solar shoppers these days, the price is right. Panel prices have fallen about 40 percent since the middle of last year, driven down partly by an increase in the supply of a crucial ingredient for panels, according to analysts at the investment bank Piper Jaffray.

The price drops — coupled with recently expanded federal incentives — could shrink the time it takes solar panels to pay for themselves to 16 years, from 22 years, in places with high electricity costs, according to Glenn Harris, chief executive of SunCentric, a solar consulting group. That calculation does not include state rebates, which can sometimes improve the economics considerably.

American consumers have the rest of the world to thank for the big solar price break.

Until recently, panel makers had been constrained by limited production of polysilicon, which goes into most types of panels. But more factories making the material have opened, as have more plants churning out the panels themselves — especially in China.

About: Khosla Ventures offers venture assistance, strategic advice and capital to entrepreneurs. The firm helps entrepreneurs extend the potential of their ideas in both traditional venture areas like the Internet, computing, mobile, and silicon technology arenas but also supports breakthrough scientific work in clean technology areas such as bio–refineries for energy and bioplastics, solar, battery and other environmentally friendly technologies. Based in Menlo Park.

www.khoslaventures.com

Key Personnel:
Vinod Khosla, Founder and Partner
David Wieden, Partner
Samir Kaul, Partner
Ford Tamer, Operating Partner
Alex Kinnier, Partner
Pierre Lamond, Partner

Portfolio:
Renewable Portfolio – Stion, Ausra, Infinia, PVT, AltaRock, GreatPoint Energy, Sakti3, Firefly, Ramu, Seeo, Kaai, Soraa, Lumenz, Topanga, GIV, Gridshift, PAX Streamline, EcoMotors, Transonic, Tula, Hybradrive, Amyris Biotechnologies, LS9, Gevo, KiOR, Mascoma, Range, Coskata, Lanza, Cilion, Draths, Segetis, Soladigm, Calera, NanoH2O, Nanostellar, Codon.

News: A Forbes article on 20 July 2009 reported that Vinod Khosla is near to closing $1 billion in new funds. He is on the verge of announcing 2 new funds with money from outside investors: $250m vehicle for seed-stage investments and a $750m fund called “KVIII” for larger deals. California pension giant CalPERS said several months ago it had committed $200m to a new Khosla fund. Khosla reportedly wants to use some of the $750m fund for “follow-on” investments in his existing portfolio but to allay the concerns of some investors, Khosla would set up a “conflicts committee” to review “follow-on” investments that didn’t have outside lead investor. Company with another lead investor wouldn’t be reviewed because they’d already been endorsed by another VC firm, not just Khosla. (see Cello fraud case earlier here).

Vinod Khosla was formerly a General Partner at Kleiner Perkins and founder of Sun Microsystems. Vinod has been labeled the #1 VC by Forbes and Fortune recently labeled him as one the nation’s most influential ethanol advocates, noting “there are venture capitalists, and there’s Vinod Khosla.” Vinod Khosla founded the firm in 2004 and was joined by partners David Weiden and Samir Kaul, as well as chief scientific officer Doug Cameron in 2006. Doug Cameron left Khosla in 2008 to join Piper Jaffray as managing director and chief science advisor and will work with the firm’s industry-leading clean technology and renewable energy investment banking team in the origination and diligence of global opportunities.

Khosla has recruited Pierre Lamond in March 2009 after retiring from VC firm Sequoia Capital where he worked for the past 27 years. Khosla said that Sequoia is one of Khosla Ventures’ most frequent co-investors. Lamond, founder of National Semiconductor, will focus on investing in clean technology companies, which produce environmentally friendly technologies, as well as more traditional high-tech companies. In the article, it stated that “Khosla Ventures appears to be raising its first fund with institutional investors; the California Public Employees’ Retirement System recently disclosed it would commit money to the fund. Khosla declined to comment on a fund. Up till now, Khosla Ventures had only invested the money of its partners.” Comment: Khosla has been very active in the cleantech space, is the statement true that “Khosla Ventures had only invested the money of its partners”? That’s awful lot of money!

Note: Khosla’s press releases on the website are very outdated, the last was in 2006 (I’m not sure why this tech-savvy firm do not update their press releases). To find out their latest investments, you probably need to look at other sources, eg Cleantech Group:
1H09 investments: Ausra, Cello Energy, HCL Clean tech, Transonic Combustion (4 deals)
2008 investments: Ausra (2), Coskata (2), AltaRock Energy, NanoH2O, Neersorb, Amyris Biotechnologies, EcoMotors, Firefly Energy, Gevo, Range Fuels (2), Sakti3, Codon Devices, Infinia Corp, Lumenz, Mascoma, PAX Streamline, SJS Technology, Transonic Combustion (21 deals, the most deals of the year 2008)

See a video by Vinod Khosla at Google here or on vodpod.

There has been lots of buzz around Apple lately.  Most of the buzz today was surrounding a recent report of Apple’s factory conditions in China.  For the most part China has a bit of a reputation for not providing equal and just treatment of their employees so the fact that this report is coming from China as opposed to one of the other sites of Apple factories is not so surprising.  What is surprising is the fact that this report even exists.  If you’re an Apple fan, like myself, you would probably be shocked to hear about some of the accusations being made.  The accusations range from the mild – not paying correct overtime wages, to fairly severe – hiring people to work at below minimum wage, hiring underage workers and also employing the use of hiring firms that charge inflated fees essentially requiring employees to pay to be able to work in the factory.  Apple has submitted a statement saying that they keep close watch on all of their sites and monitor hiring and appropriate wage policies.  The statement continues to say that Apple makes an effort to listen to employee concerns and respond accordingly in an attempt to keep employees happy and protected from some of the various labor law issues that are so prevalent in Asian countries.  I personally believe Apple goes above and beyond what is expected of them as an employer and that they are dedicated to keeping happy (and, in turn) productive employees.  Had Apple not responded to the allegations in the manner that they did I, along with many other Apple fans may have a major moral dilemma on my hands.

The same day that the news of poor factory conditions in China is released there was a report from our good friends at Piper Jaffray stating that, due to the recent release of the iPhone 3GS and the new line of MacBook Pros, Apple is seeing their stock rise.  Third quarter earnings are expected to be reported next week and those earnings will reflect the success Apple has had in the past few months since their last major release of products.

Finally a little tidbit from the Apple rumor mill.  MacRumors reported yesterday that there has been word oversees that Apple is in the process of acquiring 9.7 touch screens for a new “netbook-like” device.  Official word from Apple is that they aren’t looking to produce any time of low end netbook to compete with the netbooks currently on the market.  (This is not surprising at all considering Apple is invested in and well versed at offering superior technology and isn’t afraid to charge a little more for that technology.)  Apple is also sticking to their original statement that we shouldn’t expect to see something until 2010.  The MacRumors article indicates that these touch screen “tablets” may be out as early as October.  I wouldn’t be surprised if a device like this is announced in October with a release date around the holiday season.  I for one have been waiting for this “golden tablet” to be released.  Ever since I bought my iPhone I’ve always thought “it would be wonderful if I could have this functionality and portability in a little bit of a larger size to use as my laptop replacement”.  It has been long awaited, I know the wait will be worth it but I have to say I’m glad to hear we’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for this release.

Are you as excited as I am about the idea of an Apple tablet?  Do you think Apple needs to intervene more in the goings on at the factories in China?  Let me know what you think!  Leave it in the comments!

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]]> http://macmeister.wordpress.com/2009/06/18/piper-jaffray-500-00-iphones-dieses-wochenende/ Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:07:38 +0000 netztrends http://macmeister.wordpress.com/2009/06/18/piper-jaffray-500-00-iphones-dieses-wochenende/

Wie aus Kreisen der Investmentbank Piper Jaffrays aus Minnesota zu erfahren war, rechnet Gene Munster, Chefanalyst der Bank, mit einem starken Verkaufsstart der neuen iPhone Generation.

T-Mobile Sprecher Alexander von Schmettow ließ verlauten dass er dem zu erwartenden Kundenansturm in Deutschland aufgrund gut gefüllter Lager entspannt entgegen sieht.

Er vermutet dass sich das 32GB-Modell deutlich besser verkaufen wird, da auch schon beim iPhone 3G der Trend zum größeren Modell ging. Ob sich diese Entwicklung auch in Zeiten sinkender Zahlungsbereitschaft wiederholen wird, bleibt abzuwarten.

In den USA geht Munster, laut einer Meldungs des Finanzmagazines Fortune, von einer halben Million verkaufter Geräte innerhalb des ersten Verkaufswochenende aus.

Obwohl diese Erwartungen weit unter den Verkaufszahlen des iPhones 3G liegen, gilt zu bedenken dass dieses am ersten Verkaufstag schon in 21 Staaten zur Verfügung stand, wobei das neue iPhone 3G S anfangs nur in acht Ländern verkauft wird.

iPhone 3G S (Copyright: Apple.com)

Es steht natürlich zur Diskussion ob das rein technische Upgrade von allen potentiellen Käufern geschätzt wird, da für viele Kunden das iPhone einfach ein Modeaccessoire darstellt.

Da sich das neue iPhone äußerlich, von der unsichtbaren Beschichtung mal abgesehen, nicht verändert hat werden diese Kunden nur schwer zu überzeugen sein, warum Sie nun, ein Jahr nach dem Kauf des iPhone 3G, schon wieder auf ein neues Modell umsteigen sollten.

Wenn am Montag erste Verkaufszahlen veröffentlich werden, wird sich zeigen ob Munster mit seiner Einschätzung richtig lag.

A prominent blogger is firing back at a Wall Street analyst who predicted this week that Apple’s upcoming developers conference won’t see the introduction of new iPhones, offering a simple argument as to why the company may be compelled to introduce its new hardware at the start of the conference.

On Wednesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote that, “While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones.”

Responding to the assessment, which he called “goofy,” Apple follower and Daring Fireball author John Gruber said the arrival of new iPhones at WWDC is “probably the easiest and most obvious Apple prediction of the year.” He noted that last year’s iPhone 3G made its debut at the conference so there’s no reason to suggest this year will see anything different.

In addition, Gruber pointed to recent reports that have identified a built-in video camera and magnetometer (digital compass) as two new hardware-related features expected to turn up this year’s iPhones. “[T]hat means new APIs, and if Apple wants to have WWDC sessions for the new hardware-specific APIs, they have to announce the hardware first,” he said.

Apple earlier this week expanded its list of WWDC sessions, though a cursory review reveals nothing conspicuous about the existing lineup of iPhone labs or instructional presentations. Still, there’s no shortage of other reasons why Apple is more likely to stick to recent tradition and clue its followers into its 2009 handset plans in early June.

For instance, the company has on average announced availability dates for its iPhones three to four weeks ahead of time so that it can funnel the necessary launch information and procedures to its partners around the world without extensive safeguards, and so that its customers have time to plan out their purchase and associated wireless contracts.

Apple is also expected to see more intense competition in the emerging smartphone space this year with Palm’s touchscreen Pre device rumored for an introduction a day or so before the start of WWDC. It would be uncharacteristic of the company to allow a fledgeling rival to generate headlines weeks on end without revealing its own hand and stealing any thunder Palm may muster up, some argue.

Then there’s the all-too-true argument waged by several AppleInsider forum members Wednesday that its imperative that Apple, at some point or other, demonstrate it can successfully launch a major new product like the third-generation iPhone without the charisma and showmanship that only Jobs can bring to the table.

“My gut feeling is that we’ve seen the last Steve Jobs keynote address,” said Gruber. “I don’t think he’s leaving the company — and his medical leave has been scheduled to run through the end of June — but I wonder if he’s done as the company’s spokesman.”

While all eyes are on Apple’s annual developers conference as a likely forum for new iPhone hardware announcements, one Wall Street analyst is advising clients that better bets may be placed on an event a few weeks later that may also mark the return of Steve Jobs.

In a note to clients, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said he believes a press release from Apple on Wednesday regarding its WWDC keynote plans suggests the event will largely focus around software and may have even been drafted as such to reset expectations for the conference.

“As indicated in today’s press release, we believe Apple will focus on the new version of Mac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard at WWDC,” he wrote. “While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June.”

Instead, Munster is placing his money on a surprise media event that would take place sometime in late June or early July following Jobs’ return. He believes the event will be used to usher in a new “family” of iPhones, including a cheaper model that he sees playing into Apple’s strategy for the Chinese cell phone market which could materialize by September.

“We continue to expect multiple models, possibly a high-end iPhone with improved specs from the current version and a low-end version with lower capacity and fewer features along with a reduced pricing plan,” the analyst wrote.

With Phil Schiller announced as the keynote speaker for this year’s WWDC, some investors may have renewed concern that Jobs may never return to the company, according to Munster, who maintains his belief that co-founder is on track to return later in the month, per comments from other members of the company’s leadership.

“This is consistent with our expectations as well as Apple’s indications that Steve Jobs is still planning on returning to the company ‘at the end of June’ (emphasis added),” he wrote. “In order for Jobs to deliver the keynote on June 8th, he would likely begin preparations well before his intended return date.”

Munster’s presumptions may carry some weight given that new iPhone hardware will require advancements present in iPhone Software 3.0, which is unlikely to be ready for public consumption as early as WWDC. Only last week did Apple issue a mandate requiring all developers to certify that new and updated app submissions are compatible with the upcoming software update.

Silicon Alley Insider has a post today quoting Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Apple (AAPL):

Key takeaways:

• No new iPhone unveiled at WWDC (but iPhones [plural] to be unveiled soon thereafter)
• No surprise Steve appearance at WWDC
• Multiple iPhone models (high end and a lower cost model)
• Official iPhone in China as soon as the end of summer ‘09
• Steve Jobs may return to Apple in a Chairman’s role with Tim Cook as CEO

iPhonAsia comment: Most Apple watchers are expecting a new iPhone unveiling at the June 8 WWDC Keynote. Munster may raise a few eyebrows with his prediction that Apple will hold off on the new iPhone(s) “show and tell” for a few more weeks. But this should not be too much of a surprise as Apple has made it clear that they are moving away from important product unveilings at major conferences (e.g. MacWorld & WWDC) in favor of more focused ”special events.”  These events are more secure (no rehearsal peek-a-boos from outsiders and media) and choreographed and can be held at Apple’s Cupertino headquarters or at the Mascone Conference Center.

Gene Munster quotes from today’s Piper Jaffray research note:

PJ - Gene Munster

WWDC Keynote Will Be Delivered By Phil Schiller; Jobs Likely Absent. Earlier today (5/13) Apple announced that Phil Schiller, not Steve  Jobs, will deliver the keynote for the WWDC event on 6/8. This is consistent with our expectations as well as Apple’s indications that Steve Jobs is still planning on returning to the company “at the end of June” (emphasis added). In order for Jobs to deliver the keynote on 6/8, he would likely begin preparations well before his intended return date.

What We Expect To See (And Not See) At WWDC; No New iPhones. As indicated in today’s press release, we believe Apple will focus on the new version of Mac OS X, Snow Leopard at WWDC. While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones. 

We continue to expect multiple models, possibly a high-end iPhone with improved specs from the current version and a low-end version with lower capacity and fewer features along with a reduced pricing plan. Such a model could also be used in Apple’s launch of the iPhone into China as soon as the end of summer ‘09.

Our Take On Steve Jobs’ Return To Apple. Apple continues to expect the return of Steve Jobs by the end of June (likely implying after WWDC). Until then, it appears that day-to-day operations at Apple are running smoothly. We believe Jobs may return to Apple with a reduced role, possibly as chairman, with COO Tim Cook assuming the CEO position. Regardless, we think the transition of leadership during and after Jobs’ leave of absence will not negatively impact Apple’s business.

Teens are Broke Too.

I write, interviewed and produced this peice, with the help of my editor/producer Brett in four days and now its on National Public Radio (NPR) show Marketplace.  Listen Here

—-Aired to this morning—

I’ve never had $5,000 a year to spend at the mall, but that’s the average amount teens spend per year on retail, or at least it was. A new study from Piper Jaffray says teen spending is down 14 percent this year. My friend Rose Powell and I know all too well about cutting back.

Rose Powell: Now we definitely go, ‘oh we should go do this.’ And then the first question is always like, how much does that cost?

Rose and I used to go to movies all the time.

Powell: And like now, like we go ‘hey like who’s house are we going to, to sit around at and talk to each other?’

We’re definitely not shopping for new outfits these days, and we’re not alone. Clothing is one of the hardest hit categories — taking a 22 percent plunge. And that’s visible at my school. I don’t hear anyone bragging about their brand name jeans anymore.

Powell: There’s totally like kind of a stigma now for being like ‘oh I have hella money I just buy whatever I want.’ Cause you’re like ‘oh look at that rich kid over there who like is not economizing ooh.’

Other students don’t have the option of economizing, like 17-year-old Derek Williams. After his mom went on disability and his older brother got laid off, hanging out with friends became extremely difficult.

Derek Williams: My friends know my situation so they know sometimes that I don’t have money, and they want me to go out with them so they’ll…

So they’ll lend him the money, which makes Derek feel like he’s got to treat his friends like Wells Fargo.

Williams: The way I think about it is if, like, they the bank, so I took out this amount of money from them so I’m in debt and I pay it back.

For most teenagers, having a social life is an essential part of our identity, and sometimes it requires money. But teens like me are finding ways around this. Now I shop at thrift stores instead of department stores, and I even split $5 foot longs with my friends.

But I think this recession has prepared me for the future. I’m learning to budget and save money, skills some people have trouble understanding well into adulthood.

In Oakland, Calif., I’m Asha Richardson for Marketplace.

Oto tabelka-marzenie każdego szefa marketingu. Aż się nie chce wierzyć… Ale to prawda!

Wyobraź sobie, że 92 proc. Twoich klientów ma produkt z kategorii, którą produkujesz. Z czego 82 proc. ma Twój produkt. A na pytanie jakiej marki produkt klienci chcą kupić w ciągu następnych 12 miesięcy – 100 proc. klientów odpowiada, że… Twojej.

Szalony sen zestresowanego marketingowca? Nie. To codzienność faceta, który zajmuje się w Apple iPod-ami. Lucky bastard

Jego kolega odpowiadający za sprzedaż muzyki on-line (iTunes) ma równie dobrze. 82 proc. klientów z grupy docelowej ściąga muzykę z sieci. Z tego 97 proc. używa do tego programu iTunes.

Facet zajmujący się sprzedażą iPhonów w porównaniu z nimi ma pod górkę. Zaledwie 8 proc. klientów z grupy docelowej ma ten telefon. Ale za to już 16 proc. deklaruje, że chce go kupić w ciągu następnego półrocza.

Tak mi się wydaje, że gdy tych trzech gości spotyka się w piątek lub sobotę na piwie – to mają raczej dobre humory

Patrząc na te tableki należy pamiętać, że ich źródłem jest 17-te coroczne badanie nastolatków wykonane przez firmę Piper Jaffray, którego część wyników zaprezentował portal AppleInsider.

Gene Munster z Piper Jaffray zaznacza, że: – Uważamy, że badania demograficzne nastolatków są krytycznym elementem długofalowego rozwoju rynku muzyki cyfrowej i urządzeń przenośnych i, że Apple zajęło wiodącą pozycję w sektorze muzyki i agresywnie wchodzi do rynku urządzeń przenośnych”. Badanie objęło 600 uczniów szkół średnich w USA, o średniej (tak, wiem – 2 razy ten sam wyraz) wieku 16,3 roku z czego 46 proc.stanowiły kobiety.

Warto przeczytać cały artykuł na AppleInsider, ja tylko przytoczę fragment, który mi się bardzo podoba.

“Apple’s dominance in the PMP market remains largely unchecked, and it is clear to us that Apple has captured the ‘cool factor’ among high school students across America.”

“Cool factor” – czy to nie brzmi cool? To piękne potwierdzenie tezy, że konsekwentne (to też znaczy, że latami) i świadome budowanie marki – często wbrew temu co mówi otoczenie – i zgodnie z wizją szefa takiej firmy – pozwala na zajęcie wyjątkowej pozycji w umysłach klientów i zamianę ich w “wyznawców” swojej marki.

A później można czytać właśnie takie badania i słuchać takich komplementów

Ile w Polsce mamy takich firm?

With big-bank stocks soaring on optimism about improving finances, improving loans, and the return of  profits, it is probably time to look again at the small investment banks to see if there are any bargains there.  Turns out there probably are.  I-banks (esp the smaller ones) tend to be a bit like the shoemaker’s kids when it comes to relationships with the investment community, and as a result they are sometimes really neglected in earnings roundups. 

It’s true that the investment banks most likely have a later date on the recovery curve than the commercial banks — because they make most of their money in transactions, raising money, handling mergers, and providing lucrative ancillary services.  The Wall Street bazaar has been quiet for months, of course, nary an IPO, and the only M&A transactions we read about are mega-mergers like Merck & Schering-Plough hooking up. 

But you can bet the markets will begin to fill back up as the hundreds or thousands of small companies that are forming begin to be eligible for financing.  We are seeing it already in the greentech and automotive areas, of course — but the frenzy is focussed for the moment on “free” federal money.  At some point that focus will switch back to professional investors and even to the retail market.  When that happens, the rising tide may lift a lot of i-bank boats, not just Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies and their ilk.

We have reported on 10 small i-banks recently, and for the most part their shares have NOT made anyone wealthier in the last month or so.  But that may mean that some of them are real blue-light specials. 

Three of the banks we have reported on are up over the last 3 weeks or so: Houston-based (but NYC-weighted) Sanders Morris Harris Group (Nasdaq: SMHG, http://www.smhg.net/) closed Monday at $4.04, vs $3.74 when we last looked in mid-February.  SF-based Merriman Curhan Ford (Nasdaq: MERR, http://www.merrimanco.com/) closed yesterday at $0.47 vs $0.34 in February, a significant percentage improvement.  And NYC-based Broadpoint Securities (Nasdaq: BPSG, http://www.fac.com) moved up from $2.56 last month to $2.68 yesterday. 

It may be worth pointing out that all 3 of these banks have been in the news.  Both SMHG and MERR are greentech and alternative energy specialists, and both are active in the OTCQX PAL program, sponsoring foreign-based companies in their US ADR (American Depositary Receipts) listings.  MERR has gathered momentum in the fixed-fee PAL sector, with 14 companies listed on its website today, and is increasingly prominent in the greentech biz as well.  SMHG, though earlier in the PAL business,  has been transforming itself from a broadly diversified financial services company into more of an asset management/private wealth management bank, and recently sold off its capital markets operation to a Chinese group. 

Broadpoint Securities has become Broadpoint Gleacher by acquiring in a $70 million cash-and-stock transaction  the M&A specialist Gleacher Partners. 

Of the other i-banks we have reported on, Miami-based Ladenburg Thalmann (Amex: LTS, http://www.ladenburg.com) reported a not-surprising downdraft in revenues for 2008, with an EBITDA loss of nearly $6 million, but at $0.55 is selling for about 75% of last year’s revenues, and about 60% of last year’s revenues if its big asset manager, Triad, had been on board all year long. 

SF-based JMP Group (NYSE: JMP, http://www.jmpg.com) declared a cash dividend of $0.01 per share in spite of a loss for the full year of 2008 (what i-bank did NOT lose money?  Umm, lemme think — can’t think of one).  Its shares are $4.02 vs $4.60 last month, and for a pretty up-and-coming bank, the market cap of $80 million may be attractive.

Some i-banks have suffered more than others in the market.  NY-based Cowen Group Inc (Nasdaq: COWN, http://www.cowen.com/) has been spanked for surprising the Street on the downside last month, and is trading at $4.90 vs an early-Feb $6.25, but its reputation and position on the Street may make it worth a second (or third) look.  The same may be true of Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC, http://www.piperjaffray.com), whose $153 million loss for the 4th quarter of last year was mostly — $127 million – a goodwill charge and some downsizing expenses.  Their shares are selling for $22.93 about half its 52-week high of $45.99, in spite of its reputation as one of the “hotties” in its chosen high-tech, medical and associated industry sectors. 

Also a surprise is the way that Rodman & Renshaw (Nasdaq: RODM, http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com)
 has been taken to the woodshed by investors, following its YE results last week.  Its shares are at $0.28, vs a year-high of $2.99 and a mid-Feb price of $0.65.

OK, so let’s say that as a person interested in the small-cap world, you are wondering how you might locate an interesting, solvent and competent investment bank to add to your portfolio.  Leaving aside the behemoths (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, UBS, et al) and the i-banks that are subsidiaries of other corporations (like Merrill Lynch and Wachovia), there are a large number of small “boutique” investment banks to look at, some of them quite interesting, some with industry-leading credentials in their niches.  Almost all of them are selling at or near their lows, most likely on the assumption that all investment banks are going to take it in the slats before this financial crunch is over.

All of the banks listed below have outstanding financial conferences — all of them worth attending.  If for no other reason, readers might want to visit the URLs to put the dates of the conferences on their calendars.  But there may also be stocks here that are worth putting on your screen to keep an eye on.  We have made no attempt to be definitive, nor to list all the banks that you might find interesting.

Two of the best-known small bank names are companies that were comparatively recently spun out of larger corporations — both considerably prior to the onset of the current recession.  Those are Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC, http://www.piperjaffray.com/), formerly a subsidiary of US Bancorp, with a quite substantial reputation in healthcare, cleantech and technology, and experience in a large number of other areas that are detailed on their website.  They announced a loss of $146 million for the year 2008, but to be fair, most of it was noncash, and income from continuing operations in the 4th quarter was positive.  PJC closed Friday at $32.51 vs a 52-week high of $45.99.  The largest of the banks we are going to mention today by market cap, PJC had a market cap of  $614 million on 2/06. 

The other spin-out also has an old name, Cowen & Company, AKA Cowen Group (Nasdaq:COWN, http://www.cowen.com/), headquartered in midtown Manhattan.  Cowen, a classic Wall Street partnership at one point, was bought by Societe Generale some years back, and then spun out as a free-standing company in July 2006.  Like Piper Jaffray, Cowen has a technology slant, with a strong emphasis on healthcare, cleantech and other technologies.  For its latest reported quarter (Sept 30, 2008), Cowen reported a loss of $57 million, including a $50 million write-down of “legacy goodwill.”  That was on slightly higher revenues compared to the previous year.  Cowen’s market cap is much smaller than Piper Jaffray’s, and its shares closed at $6.25 on 2/06 (vs a high in the year prior of $10.50), leading to a market cap of $89 million.

Cowen recently brushed off an offer to be acquired by MUCH smaller Rodman & Renshaw (Nasdaq:RODM) — a classic minnow-swallows-whale transaction had it gone through.  More about RODM below.

Two west-coast based companies would be on your list: San Francisco-based Merriman Curhan Ford Group Inc (Nasdaq: MERR, http://www.merrimanco.com/AboutUs/index.php) and Portland OR-based Paulson Capital Corp (Nasdaq: PLCC, http://www.paulsoninvestment.com/).

MERR, like many of the other banks in this list, is strong in healthcare and technology, but it has a particular expertise in greentech/cleantech, and apparently strong relationships with prominent greentech investors such as The Quercus Trust.  Unlike the other banks in this group, MERR also has a small but growing business as a PAL (advisor) to international companies whose ADRs are listed on the OTCQX (http://www.otcqx.com/otcqx/home).  It also has taken steps to shore up its balance sheet over the last few weeks, and announced a management restructuring that brings in some new blood, still under founder Jon Merriman.  MERR closed on 2/06 at $0.34, vs a year-high of $6.50, yielding a current market cap of just $4.4 million, which may make it more attractive  for diligence purposes than even some of its talented peers.

Paulson Capital is an older firm with a history under its veteran founder, Chet Paulson, of sponsoring quirky companies — some of them successful, others not.  But it has the distinction of having been a stable and independent i-bank for longer than any other firm on the list.  It also is the proprietor of the Westergaard Waldorf Conferences, probably the longest-running series of small-cap conferences in the industry.  PLCC closed on 2/06 at $1.60, down from $5.49, for a market capitalization of $9.5 million.

NY-based RODM (properly Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group Inc, http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com/), has been a leading investment bank in the PIPE world for a number of years.  In fact, most often it is #1 in terms of the number of deals it puts together; in 2008 it did 44 transactions totalling $588 million.  Rodman’s name harks back to a Chicago-based company that was purchased by a Latin American bank, and merged with a NY i-bank, Mabon Nugent.  The project did not work out, and the bank parent closed it down; the current Rodman emerged subsequently after purchasing the name, etc. Their position in the healthcare PIPE world, and also other technologies, and their research department, are without doubt one of the most active, and one of the most successful in completing deals.  RODM closed on 2/06, however, at $0.65, down from a 52-week high of $2.99, for a current market cap of a bit over $22 million.

NYC-based Broadpoint Securities Corp (Nasdaq:BPSG, http://www.fac.com/) is a successor to a company originally known as First Albany Corp, and later as FAC Equities Corp (still reflected in its website URL).  Its focus is technology (a legacy of the ultra-tech First Albany, no doubt), greentech, healthcare and energy, along with other areas that are listed on its website.  BPSG closed on 2/06 at $2.56, down from a 52-week high of $3.54, for a market cap of about $204 million, the second largest on our list. 

Finally, one would look at another grand old name that dates back to 1876, and has been reincarnated as a new firm, Miami-based Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc (Amex:LTS, http://www.ladenburg.com/), which now includes the operations of NY-based Punk Ziegel, a notable and respected life sciences/biotech bank.  LTS is a full-service i-bank, and has been particularly successful in the last few years in structuring and closing 33 SPACs (basically, blank-check pools raised to make acquisitions), raising $6.6 billion in the process.  LTS says it is the #1 SPAC bank in the country, and we would have no way to argue with that.   Their shares closed on 2/06 at $0.78, down from a year high of  $2.59, for a market cap of a tad under $134 million.

So there it is, not a complete list by any means, but something to chew on.  We do NOT recommend stocks — we just follow interesting companies on the theory that well-informed investors will do their own due diligence.

Apple will launch an Internet-connected television in 2011 as it begins a big push into the digital living room of the future, analyst Gene Munster says.

Apple to sell 6.6 million Apple TVs this year, say Gene Munster

The computer and iPod maker has so far shrugged aside initiatives in the networked television market, calling it still for hobbyists.

But Munster of the Wall Street firm Piper Jaffray said Thursday it is gearing up for a major push into the space with an upgrade to its Apple TV late this year, bringing the device DVR functionality.

In two years, it will unveil an Apple television with DVR functionality built in, he said in a research note. Recorded shows could sync with Apple computers, iPods and iPhones wirelessly and blend into the iTunes ecosystem.

“Apple could effectively replace the home entertainment system (including a music stereo, cable box, Blu-ray/DVD player, and gaming console) with an all-in-one Apple television,” Munster wrote.

Munster sees Apple selling 6.6 million Apple TVs this year.

Apple announced today that CEO Steve Jobs won’t be delivering the highly anticipated presentation that usually marks the highlight of the annual Macworld computer trade show in January.

From the Associated Press:

Apple also said 2009 will be its last year exhibiting at Macworld Expo, a multi-day gathering of fans and makers of software and accessories for Macs, iPods, iPhones and other Apple products. The expo is organized by the IDG technology media group.

Jobs’ Macworld keynote had become one of the consumer electronics industry’s most-anticipated moments because he used the stage to launch Apple’s most coveted gadgets. The CEO, a practiced showman, is known for saving his biggest Macworld announcement for last, then prefacing the big revelation by telling his audience he has “one more thing.”

Last year, that “thing” was the ultra-thin MacBook Air laptop; in 2007, Jobs gave Macworld attendees the first glimpse of the iPhone. A decade earlier, as Apple was struggling financially and Jobs had just returned as CEO, he wrapped up his keynote, paused, and then added: “I almost forgot. We’re profitable.”

Apple said Philip Schiller, a marketing executive, will deliver the keynote instead of Jobs. The switch indicates “a shift in power going on at Apple,” said Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster in an interview. Munster said Schiller is one of two contenders to succeed Jobs at the company’s helm; the other is Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook.

Apple said it was abandoning Macworld because the company has other methods for getting in front of customers, including its growing chain of retail stores. Munster said it makes sense for Apple to back out because it can generate just as much buzz by hosting its own product launch events.