Special panel says there is no other way to improve poor prison conditions.

updated 9:32 p.m. ET, Mon., Feb. 9, 2009

AP – SACRAMENTO, Calif. – A special panel of federal judges tentatively ruled Monday that California must release tens of thousands of inmates to relieve overcrowding.

The judges said no other solution will improve conditions so poor that inmates die regularly of suicides or lack of proper care.

“There are simply too many prisoners for the existing capacity,” they wrote. “Evidence offered at trial was overwhelmingly to the effect that overcrowding is the primary cause of the unconstitutional conditions that have been found to exist in the California prisons.”

via Judges order Calif. inmates released – Life- msnbc.com.

I know California has a serious budget problem. OK,, lots of states do. California’s prisons are overcrowded, but then I am sure if they deported the illegal immigrant inmates, that would help a bit.

What really gets me is this solution. I don’t think I have ever heard anything as absurd as our prisons are overcrowded and we have a budget problem, so lets release thousands of criminals into the public streets.

Does anyone else see a problem with this brain storm? I laughed at the wording as well, that the overcrowding is the primary cause of unconstitutional conditions. Give me a flippin break. They are crooks, incarcerated and have no rights. They gave up their rights when they decided they didn’t want to be law abiding citizens.

I also saw a perfect solution in their statement “conditions so poor that inmates die regularly of suicides or lack of proper care.” And the downside to this is what? Let em die, let em kill each other, let em kill themselves. I see a huge cost savings and a big “good riddance” of the criminal element in our society.

Not to mention, what a great idea for deterrence. Maybe someone thinking of committing a crime will first think “wait, there is no room in prison, lack of health care, I might die in prison, I better not sell these drugs, or rape this person, or rob this bank, etc.”

I’d like to know what you think about this. Make a comment, take the poll.

If anyone else had gone to Washington and gave Congress an ultimatum that if they didn’t give $25 billion to bail their company out of hot water or one to three million people would lose their jobs and throw America into economic ruin, they would be going to prison on charges or extortion. But this is the Big 3, so people will be looking the other way.

You wont be seeing those headlines because General Motors (GM), Ford, and Daimler feel they are above the law and the main stream media doesn’t recognize extortion since they don’t even recognize that they committed treason many times over while reporting on military matters based on the fact that it was news and it’s freedom of the press (which is a different story for another time).

President Bush felt it was necessary to “help out” the economy even though it isn’t his responsibility to bail out businesses who fail at being a profitable business, by offering a $700 billion safety net. The House of Representatives were smart enough to vote it down. However, the Senate wasn’t so bright, and they passed the measure.

At that time, I stated it was a huge mistake and it would set a trend that this country doesn’t need to start. Company after company have gotten in line for tax payers money to save their failed mortgage companies, banks, and so on. Remember Bear and Stearns, one of the largest global investment banks and securities trading and brokerage firms, got a huge handout of tax payers dollars. Blew that wad, and then sold out to JPMorgan Chase.

Having contributed a combined $1,842,297 to federal candidates, according to data gathered by the Center for Responsive Politics, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stepped up to the line asking for handouts. AIG is on the rescue list. This trend should never have started but at least these failing companies only “asked” for help. The big 3 went over the line and is attempting to extort the government and the American citizens.

I’m afraid I have to say two things, let them fail and arrest the big 3. But wont that kill the economy? Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm answers questions during a news conference in Troy, Mich., Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2008. Granholm said that “the crisis in the auto industry is urgent”, arguing that “the national economy rests on this”. However this can not be farther from the truth. The Japanese’s own Big 3- Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and other prominent foreign car manufacturers are ready and waiting to fill the production capacity and demand vacuum left by the Big 3’s failure to continue dominating the North American market.

Another cause for this failing business, unions. Union workers get on average double to triple the wages of a non-union worker. If union workers are laid off, the big 3 are required by contract to pay 95% of their base pay during the time they are laid off. These among other costs not mentioned have to be absorbed by the companies which ultimately go into the sale of the vehicle.

So what do we have here: Car companies who charge us 3 times what they should be for the sale of a vehicle, Car companies who would rather (according to their bean counters) pay out on lawsuits for wrongful death caused by their malfunctioning vehicles rather than fix the defects because its “more cost effective” to pay the lawsuits than recall vehicles, Car companies who have fought for years not to produce more and more fuel efficient vehicles because there isn’t a big enough profit in the effort, (and the list goes on) and now they want our tax dollars to bail them out of their failing business?!?!

LET THEM FAIL! The answer here is simply that they need to file bankruptcy like every other failing business which isn’t an honorable thing to do when you fail, but it is the right thing to do in this situation. Suck it up and file.

My Fellow Americans, Call your Senators and tell them to STOP the trend. Its going to have a lasting ill-effect for the next 30+ years and our children will be paying the price.

Popular Vote

Obama – 50.9%  +6.2%

McCain – 44.7%

Electoral College

Obama – 354

McCain – 184

McCain and Obama both gained in the polls today, but McCain’s gain was slightly better, but nothing that changes the dynamic of the race.  The biggest change, and one that is extremely positive for Obama, is that undecideds dropped by 1% since yesterday.  The drop went 45% to Obama and 55% to McCain.  If you extrapolate that across the remaining undecideds, McCain would pick up a net gain of only .5%.  Accounting for all voters and using the algorithm just described, the vote total would be Obama 52.8% and McCain 47.1%.  That would still give Obama a 5.7% margin of victory.  However, Bob Barr and Ralph Nader will take votes away.  The analysis from reviewing Real Clear Politics from about a week ago, would take about 2% from Obama and 3% from McCain.

My best guess for election night, based on the latest information is – Obama 50.8%, McCain 44.1%.  That would give Obama a 6.7% win margin.  That is a significant win.  Keep in mind, if there is still a Bradley Effect, the pundits believe it would be a 2-6% effect.  Obama’s win margin would still be above that number.  Interesting, and perhaps giving credence to my current projection, this is about where the race stands right now.  Obama right at the 50% threshold and McCain still not breaking through the 46% ceiling.  Just for the heck of it, there are two days left – McCain needs to make up 3% per day to close the gap.

But that’s the popular vote.  It really doesn’t matter.  What matters is the Electoral College.  Depending how you define ‘tightening’, there may or may not be tightening in the Electoral College.  If you consider tightening states changing columns (e.g. from Obama to McCain or Toss-up), there hasn’t been any tightening.  If you consider tightening races getting closer, then there has been some tightening in Pennsylvania.  The state is still strong for Obama, but McCain has definitely made inroads and perhaps cutting Obama’s lead in half in the last week.  The good news is the state is strong for Obama and, if it took a week to get this close, he should still win it relatively easily.  The bad news could be if the polls are even a little tighter than they’ve been projected.  Keep in mind, in the Real Clear Politics final poll for 2004 Obama was up .9% and won by 2.5%.  Obama is up in their poll by 7.5%  Pennsylvania is polled every day so these results are current.  It’s very difficult to see how he’ll cut that lead close enough to make a difference in two days.

Now the real good news?  McCain still needs to win the following states, even with Pennsylvania (Obama’s lead follows each state): Florida (+4.1%), North Carolina (+1.3%), Ohio (+5.6%), and Colorado (+6.2%).  Those are very tough odds.  If he loses Pennsylvania, I believe it’s over.  If he loses Pennsylvania and Virginia (+6.0), it is over.  Keep in mind, he still needs to win a host of other states where they are still considered ‘toss-ups’ – Indiana (-.5%) and  Missouri (-.6%). There also a couple of states that are ‘leaning’ McCain, but McCain’s lead is still smaller than Obama’s in the States McCain is trying to win – Georgia (-3%), Montana (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.5%).  My best guess for election night, based on the latest information is – Obama 338 McCain 200.  Although, my brain and my heart are telling me that Obama will not win both Ohio and Florida.  So, I believe Obama’s range will be 311 to 338.

The last two lingering item is how Obama’s Aunt story plays out and the final smear assult.  There are vastly different opinions on the Aunt story, ranging from no effect, effecting Obama, to even effecting McCain (if GOP is implicated).  This story appears it might be even more dangerous to McCain, judging by the fact his campaign will not mention it.  As for the smears, it probably will affect those with a choice by a minimal amount and a little more with the undecideds.  I can’t imagine that it will shift the election more than 2%.

A new CNN poll of poll suggests that Obama’s lead over McCain has dropped by 2 points, from 8 to just 6. That means a red-alert for everyone supporting Obama. Gear up once more, guys, and lets make this Presidency happen…! Spread the good word around…

Take a peek at some of my earlier blog-posts which received significant number of hits:

Bloggers! Gear up for the next wave of dirty McCain ads!

Why it is unlikely that McCain would win on Nov 4

In Pics: Obama’s greatest family moments

The latest CNN Poll of Polls shows Obama’s lead over McCain dropping by 2 points.(AP PHOTO)

(CNN) — A new average of the most recent national polls suggests Sen. Barack Obama holds a 6-point lead over Sen. John McCain.

The CNN Poll of Polls, compiled Friday morning, indicates that 49 percent of Americans say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 43 percent backing McCain, R-Arizona. Eight percent of those questioned are undecided.

Watch: Polls show Obama is leading McCain

The previous edition, compiled Thursday, indicated Obama had an 8-point lead over McCain, 50-42 percent.

This edition of the CNN Poll of Polls averaged four surveys: an American Research Group poll conducted October 11-13; a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey taken October 13-16; a Gallup poll conducted October 13-15; and a Diageo/Hotline survey taken October 13-15.

It means you can add a poll to every post you ever write if you so choose. OK it’s a gimmick but I think I have fallen in love with it. So join me please.

I am beginning a new feature that will continue through the end of the election, which is The Liberal Crab’s Poll of Poll of Polls.

For those not familiar with the concept of “Poll of Polls”, it’s when a pollster utilizes several polls to come up with a result – such as averaging.  However, many of the pollsters, particularly 538.com, use very sophisticated algorithms to determine that ‘average’.  They will try to eliminate outliers and poll bias to improve the likely result.

My concept is to take it one step further.  Since the “Poll of Polls” is done differently by different pollsters, I am taking those polls and trying to come up with an even better estimate.  None of these “Poll of Polls” is 100% accurate, but they are much more accurate than one poll.  So, in my theortical – non-provable world, I believe if you do a “Poll of Poll of Polls”, it should give you an even better answer.

Several notes, first:

1) The  current methodology is simply to average the results of all polls.  I believe for the sake of this exercise, this will be good enough.

2) I will use any polls I find and will add additional ones as I find them.

3) For the Electoral Map projection, if given the choice, I will use the map from a pollster with no toss-ups.  If the map only includes toss-ups, I will apply the electoral votes to the candidate ahead in their state poll of polls.  If they don’t provide the detailed polls for a state or if there is a tie, I will split the votes equally.  If a State has an odd number of electoral votes, I will give the additional vote to the candidate’s party that previously won the state.

The following sites are included in my first iteration: 538.com, The Princeton Election Consortium, Real Clear Politics, Pollster.com, Open Left, Electoral-Vote, Talking Points Memo.  Talking Points Memo only had a popular vote poll and Princeton, Open Left, and Electoral-Vote only had electoral vote polls.

Popular Vote

Obama – 50.6%  +7.0%

McCain – 43.6%

Electoral College

Obama – 351.8

McCain – 186.3

Some interesting outcomes of my analysis.  5 of the pollsters had the same 353/185 electoral count.  538.com and Electoral-Vote were the two very slight outliers (both within 5 votes).  However, the popular votes polls spread between a 5.4% and 8.3% lead for Obama.  538.com was the biggest outlier having Obama at 52% and McCain at 46%.  For those not familiar, 538.com is a little different as they give you their projection for November 5th.  The other sites are only a snapshot of today.  Nate Silver’s (of 538) algorithm is showing what the vote will look like with no ‘undecideds’.

So there you have it.  Take it for what it’s worth.  I have degrees in Business Finance and Political Science and definitely not a stat’s junkie.  I think the take-away is everyone is relatively comfortable with the electoral college being at 350 for Obama.  That’s great news as protection if McCain picks off Ohio or Florida (or even Pennsylvania).  The problem is that much of this is a house of cards and Obama could win big or not at all.

Open Left has a neat analysis that shows Obama with a solid lead of 7% or better in states accounting for 280 electoral votes.  Chris Bowers (of Open Left) says that’s significant because no major race poll has been off by more than 7% if taken the final week of the campaign.  I like that stat because if the ‘maximum’ Bradley Effect were to occur, pundits seem to think it might account for 5-6% of an impact.

I am open to suggestions and concerns, please feel free to post.

McCain is keeping the race close in Ohio.

(CNN) – Pennsylvania may be slipping from John McCain’s grasp, but the Republican nominee is keeping the race close in the neighboring battleground state of Ohio – a state that no successful GOP presidential contender has failed to win.

CNN’s new Ohio poll of polls shows Barack Obama leading McCain by three points, 49 to 46 percent. Five percent of the state’s voters were unsure about their presidential pick.

The network’s last Ohio poll of polls, released October 9, showed Obama leading McCain by four points, 50 to 46 percent. In the September 21 poll of polls, Obama led McCain by a single point, 47 to 46 percent.

Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin is slated to stop in Ohio Sunday — the third time on the past week week the GOP ticket has visited the state.

Map the candidates’ path through the swing states with CNN’s Election Tracker

The Ohio general election “poll of polls” consists of four surveys: Ohio Newspaper Poll/University of Cincinnati (October 4-8), ARG (October 4-7), CNN/Time/ORC (October 3-6) and ABC/Washington Post (October 3-5). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

The current “poll of polls” from Pollster.com has Obama 49.6% and McCain 42.8% across the nation.

Hit the link for an interactive flash version of the national poll of polls.

:

(CNN) – The match-up between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain is tightening, according to CNN’s latest poll of polls.

Obama now leads McCain by four percentage points – 47 percent to 43 percent — with 10 percent undecided about their choice for president. Since the previous CNN poll of polls released Wednesday, Obama has dropped two percentage points – from 49 percent percent previously to his current support level of 47 percent – while McCain’s support remains steady at 43 percent since Wednesday.

“While there are indications that McCain may be closing in on Obama, we’ve seen these sorts of fluctuations in the polling average before,” cautioned CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “McCain has not broken out of the low to mid-40s all summer. He has to hope that the combination of the Palin pick and a well-received acceptance speech tonight will somehow change the race’s fundamental dynamics, which so far continue to favor the Democrats.”

CNN’s August 29-September 3 national general election poll of polls consists of the following five surveys: CBS (September 1-3), Gallup (September 1-3), Diageo/Hotline (August 29-31), American Research Group (August 30-September 1), and CNN/Opinion Research Corp. (August 29-31). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

A new CNN poll of polls shows Obama's lead is dwindling.

(CNN) — In what could be an ominous sign for Barack Obama just days before he is formally named the Democratic presidential nominee, a new CNN poll of polls out Tuesday shows the Illinois senator’s lead over John McCain has been cut in half in recent days.

According to CNN’s average of several recent national surveys, Obama’s lead is now a slim 3 points over the Arizona senator, 46-43 percent — half of his advantage in a CNN poll of polls one week ago, and down from a high of 8 points in mid-July.

Election Center: Check out CNN’s electoral map

The latest poll results come amid increased attacks from McCain on Obama’s readiness to be commander-in-chief and the re-emergence of national security worries among voters in the wake of the Georgia crisis.

“Over the last week, we’ve seen Sen. Obama’s lead in the poll of polls cut in half,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “This change was likely driven by a renewed focus on foreign policy after Russia’s invasion of Georgia, as well as by Sen. McCain’s willingness to launch more aggressive attacks against Obama on issues such as off-shore drilling.”

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out Tuesday evening was the latest national survey to indicate Obama’s lead is dwindling, putting the Illinois senator ahead of McCain by only 2 points, well within the poll’s margin of error. The CNN Poll of polls also includes new surveys from Quinnipiac and Gallup.

But the recent downturn in the polls for Obama may not last — the Democratic White House hopeful is headed for a week of what is likely to be overwhelmingly postive coverage as he names his running mate and officially accepts his party’s presidential nomination.

“The big question now is whether Obama can successfully regain control of the campaign agenda as we head into the Democratic convention,” Silverleib also said.

Barack Obama is up by 6 points in the latest CNN poll of polls.

(CNN) – Barack Obama continues to hold a solid lead over John McCain with just over 80 days remaining until the presidential election, a new CNN poll of polls shows.

According to the average of several recent national polls, Obama registers 47 percent among registered voters nationwide with McCain at 41 percent.

That lead has basically held steady over the last two months: A CNN poll of polls on June 20 also had the race at 6 points, 46 percent to 40 percent.

The national general election poll of polls consists of four surveys: Pew (July 31-August 10), CBS (July 31-August 5), AP-IPSOS (July 31-August 4), and Gallup tracking (August 10-12). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Call it a numbers game. With 87 days to go until the presidential election, our latest CNN Poll of polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with thirteen percent of Americans undecided.

The Poll of polls released Wednesday found an indentical result.

The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the latest national polls. Our newest edition consists of three surveys, a CBS poll taken from July 31 to August 5, an AP-IPSOS survey conducted from July 31 to August 4, and a Gallup tracking poll taken from August 5 to August 7. Because it’s an average of a number of surveys, our Poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

As we always caution, the presidential election is not a battle for the national vote — rather, it’s a state by state fight for electoral votes. While national polls are important, they are far from the only barometer in determining where the presidential contest stands right now.

(CNN) – Barack Obama’s advantage over John McCain remains unchanged – but some voters for both candidates seem to be slipping back into the undecided column, the latest CNN Poll of Polls suggests.

CNN Election Center: View the latest state polls

The presumptive Democratic nominee still holds a 5-point advantage over the presumptive Republican nominee in CNN’s average of national polls, 46 to 41 percent, with 13 percent of voters surveyed undecided. On Tuesday, Obama held the same edge, 48 to 43 percent over McCain, and 9 percent of voters said they were unsure of their choice.

CNN’s Wednesday survey of major national polls consists of the CBS survey conducted July 31 to August 5, the AP-IPSOS poll conducted July 31 to August 4, and the Gallup tracking poll results for August 3-5. The CNN poll of polls does not have a margin of error.

Silly season is upon us…

A “poll of polls” as produced by the Times Higher Education. It is a simple average of rankings of the most recent UK league tables published. No claims are made, rightly, for statistical rigour. This would qualify as what Peter Snow in his swingometer days would have described as “just a bit of fun”:

1 Oxford
2 Cambridge
3 London School of Economics
4 Imperial College London
5 Warwick
6 St Andrews
7 University College London
8 Durham
9 York
10 Loughborough

Back in 2003 the Daily Telegraph (in lieu of any other league table effort and without a disclaimer) undertook a very similar exercise. The results were:

1 Cambridge
2 Oxford
3 Imperial
4 LSE
5 Warwick
6= Nottingham
6= UCL
8 York
9 Bristol
10 Manchester

So top 5 the same apart from the Oxbridge switch, UCL and York remain but three big Russell Group institutions, Nottingham, Bristol and Manchester, usurped by smaller 94 group universities, St Andrews, Durham and Loughborough.

(CNN) — Barack Obama holds a 3-point lead over John McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls.

The new average of the three most recent national surveys of registered voters shows the Illinois senator at 44 percent with McCain standing at 41 percent. About 15 percent say they are undecided.

The margin between the two presidential candidates has dropped by half over the past week: in a CNN poll of polls taken July 16, Obama and McCain were separated by 6 points.

Election Center: Check out the poll of polls trend

The latest poll of polls includes recent surveys from Gallup, Fox News, and NBC/Wall Street Journal.

(CNN) — Barack Obama holds a 4-point lead over John McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls.

The new average of the three most recent national surveys of registered voters shows the Illinois senator at 47 percent with McCain standing at 43 percent. About 10 percent say they are undecided.

The margin between the two presidential candidates has narrowed slightly over the past week: in a CNN poll of polls taken July 16, Obama and McCain were separated by 6 points.

Election Center: Check out the poll of polls trend

The latest poll of polls includes recent surveys from Gallup, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and ABC/Washington Post.

(CNN)–The CNN general election national poll of polls now shows both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton leading John McCain McCain by two points: 46 percent to 44 percent.

The last general election poll of polls — released May 15 — showed Obama leading McCain by five points (48 percent to 43 percent) and Clinton leading McCain by four points (48 percent to 44 percent).

Full poll results after the jump

NATIONAL GENERAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS*

May 15-27

Voters’ Choice for President

Obama: 46 percent

McCain: 44 percent

Unsure: 10 percent

NATIONAL GENERAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS*

May 15-27

Voters’ Choice for President

Clinton: 46 percent

McCain: 44 percent

Unsure: 10 percent

*The national general election “poll of polls” consists of three surveys: Gallup (May 22-25/27), Newsweek (May 21-22), and Reuters/Zogby (May 15-18). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

Obama now leads Clinton by 1 point nationally.

(CNN) — The Democratic presidential race is tightening nationally, according to a new CNN average of several recent polls.

Obama’s lead is now down to 1 point over Clinton nationwide, 45 percent to 44 percent, in CNN’s “poll of polls.” That margin is down 3 points from another CNN poll of polls conducted two days ago. In that analysis, Obama led Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin is also considerably lower than an April 18 poll of polls that showed Obama with an 11 point lead.

The poll of polls consists of three newly released national polls from Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, and Newsweek. There is no margin of error on the poll of polls.

Both the Fox News poll and the Gallup poll were conducted partially after Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, made a fresh round of controversial comments earlier this week.

The Fox News poll also appears to show Obama no longer has an edge over Clinton among independent voters. In head-to-head match ups, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain wins independents by a 4 point margin over Clinton (42-38 percent) and by a 10 points over Obama (47 percent to 37 percent).