Blogs about: Prediction Markets
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Globo: "Colonel Blotto Has Mystical Powers"
The Brazilian mass media systematically promotes magical thinking. The Grupo Abril’s Veja magazine covers the iPhone, January 2007: “It’s like magic!” In June 2007, as the gizmo launched, Steve Jobs … more →
The New Market Machines
USDCAD and AUDUSD looks like weekly flags
getpipsfx wrote 2 days ago: I pointed out a few weeks back that the USDCAD was forming a weekly flag. The price action over the … more →
Why Do Markets Like Republicans?
representativeagent wrote 1 week ago: Equity markets prefer Republicans to Democrats. This was shown convincingly in “Partisan Impac … more →
Opinion: The Trouble with Prediction Markets
seldon14 wrote 1 month ago: Prediction markets are, according to Wikipedia, speculative markets created for the purpose of makin … more →
What Does Information Economics Have to Say About Prediction Markets?
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Paul Hewitt wrote 1 month ago: Adam Smith (1776) detected the “invisible hand” that seemed to be able to efficiently al … more →
Why Public Prediction Markets Fail
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Paul Hewitt wrote 1 month ago: Public prediction markets have the potential to be more accurate than enterprise markets, because th … more →
A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps
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Paul Hewitt wrote 1 month ago: This is a background paper on several of the important concepts in prediction markets that may be le … more →
Who's the Killer? Prediction markets at PSC
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pondstonecommunications wrote 1 month ago: I’ve been saying for a while now that prediction markets are going to play a huge role in ever … more →
Technology without People doesn't work. People without Technology doesn't scale
markturrell wrote 1 month ago: I remember doing my doctorate on collaborative technologies back fifteen years ago, and one quote st … more →
The Forgotten Principle Behind Prediction Markets
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Paul Hewitt wrote 1 month ago: Background In his book, “The Wisdom of Crowds”, James Surowiecki gave an interesting and insightful … more →
Calibration = Prediction Market Accuracy?
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Paul Hewitt wrote 1 month ago: In response to a recent paper I wrote on prediction market accuracy (or lack thereof), I received … more →
"Always bet on black"*
dsnoonan wrote 2 months ago: I’m a big fan of prediction markets, for all kinds of practical and theoretical reasons. Baye … more →
Google, Yahoo, Microsoft Want to Legalize For-Money Prediction Markets
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Hutch Carpenter wrote 2 months ago: $500 on the U.S. economy turning positive in the first quarter of 2010! Wouldn’t it be great if you … more →
The Future of Prediction Markets - Part I
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Paul Hewitt wrote 2 months ago: We would like to be able to run a prediction market to predict the future adoption of prediction mar … more →
Prediction Market Accuracy and Usefulness
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Paul Hewitt wrote 2 months ago: Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction Markets Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg … more →
Assassination Politics Part I by Jim Bell, review by Joe Baptista
Editor wrote 2 months ago: Jim Bell author of Assassination Politics, photo by Declan McCullagh Introduction: Assassination Pol … more →
"Ability To Forecast Results" Is #1 Concern of CFOs
Tom wrote 2 months ago: So says the April, 2009 CFO magazine. I guess this is not shocking news, given the economic and fin … more →
A Cheaper Alternative to Prediction Markets?
Paul Hewitt wrote 2 months ago: Recently, I came across this article in The Economist that discusses the genius and extraordinary ab … more →
The Link Archipelago
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Mike Gibson wrote 2 months ago: Robin Hanson asks: What institutions are especially good as meta-institutions? What institutions … more →
Judging Accuracy in Prediction Markets
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Paul Hewitt wrote 2 months ago: I’ve had a chance to review Emile Servan-Schreiber’s paper, Prediction Markets: Trading … more →
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