Overcoming the fear of water can be a daunting and difficult task.  This is true for all ages however parents have the choice to make this an easier process for their children especially if the fear as actually their own.  Now, it is true that some kids should come with a warning label and have no fear and can almost be mistaken for having a death wish.  But more often than not children whom fear the water are really expressing the fear that parents have instilled in them.  Fear is commonly and unconsciously taught to children by parents’ actions, language and projections of their own fear.

We see in many classes parents who react to certain activities for example holding the child higher out of the water to keep their children’s face away from the interface, or grabbing them quickly when they approach the wall, or even preventing submersions all together.  The belief is to keep the child comfortable, which in turn is preventing the exact action we are trying to teach:  children can be comfortable and safe in and under the water through breath control and awareness.

Parents must recognize if their own fear is effecting and playing a role in their child’s development.  Of course when teaching safety to children, comes teaching responsibility and a healthy respect for the pool, once that is established comfort and fun can be experienced while a parent can relax because they know their child is relaxed and safer in the water.

Allow your child to dunk underwater.  Take a deep breath and blow bubbles simultaneously as you work with your baby.  Your body will relax as so will your child’s body.  Give them the time to learn how to support their own weight as they are holding on to the wall.  Allow them to climb out of the pool on their own by letting them struggle a bit with it at first.  Carry your infant closer to the water’s interface getting them comfortable with that sensation of the water around their face, ears, and mouth.  Sometimes a parent’s fear will diminish when you see your child feeling comfortable and having fun in the water as well.

Take pleasure in the lessons.  The SwimJim staff is trained and knowledgeable, follow their actions and trust.  But most of all relax and enjoy swimming with SwimJim is always supposed to be fun.

For the next decade.

Neat stuff, I’m glad to hear his projections on solar power. I think it’s a crying shame how much we’ve let politicians slow down our economy fighting against our use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy, but if we can solve all our energy problems with cheap solar, I’m fine with letting those other technologies go.

According to information gathered from parts suppliers for Apple’s (s aapl) iPhone 3GS, the handset is headed for a record quarter. Apple’s Taiwanese suppliers for the iPhone’s components have reported a 31 percent increase in volume of orders placed for the parts, which should indicate a very healthy spike in sales of the smartphone.

The report comes via Taiwan’s online tech industry publication, the DigiTimes, which has provided ample fuel for the rumor fire regarding various Apple devices in the past, as well as reporting on Apple’s business outlook. In the second quarter, the iPhone sold 7.4 million worldwide, but if DigiTimes’ information is accurate, total sales for the third quarter, which end in December for the Mac maker, could reach the 10 million mark.

Numbers are up all across the smartphone component supply industry, but according to information gathered by the Taipei-based market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), much of that increase is due to Apple’s strong sales. Which isn’t to say that Apple’s competitors aren’t having any luck challenging its market dominance, according to MIC analyst Edward Lin:

Samsung is currently the largest supplier in the market, as it supplies for the Apple iPhone series models. However, TI (s txn), which has exited from the baseband business and now focuses on AP development, has rolled out the OMAP 3430 series, which adopts the Cortex A8 architecture and features a clock speed of 1GHz. This offers processor options other than Qualcomm (s qcom), enabling terminal vendors to pair together different communications systems, and it has been well received by many brand-name vendors, such as HTC, Palm (s palm), etc. As a result, TI’s share in the Taiwanese smartphone AP market increased in the third quarter of 2009.

The ability to use different wireless communication standards is something that’s recently come up in rumors surrounding Apple’s next-generation device, and it looks like that rumor is well in keeping with the pulse of the industry at large. Perhaps it isn’t so far-fetched to imagine that the next iPhone could use both GSM- and CDMA-based networks, allowing it to be offered on Verizon (s vz) in the U.S. Of course, then some of Apple’s commercials would become factually incorrect.

Regardless of what’s coming, third-quarter sales of 10 million is a huge win for Cupertino. Looking at recent developments, its easy to spot the source of this late-game success. Apple has opened up sales of its device to many more carriers at the international level, expanding into new territory in the UK, Canada and France, to name a few. It’s also finally gained official access to the massive Chinese market, which paves the way for a lot of potential success, despite early setbacks.

With the Matt Holliday clock now ticking there has been a lot of talk about the plan B options, so I thought it would be a good time to bring out my WAR simulation (which I’ve expanded to include defense).

I looked at the following options that I’ve heard/read about at some time over the past couple of days [Quick update: as Dan at VEB points out this list is not exhaustive, and I'll try to run at least some of the suggestions people make here or over there]

• Holliday (hey I was curious) in left and David Freese at 3rd (MH)
• Erik’s nightmare – AKA Miguel Tejeda at third and Allen Craig in Left (MT)
• Mark Derosa at 3rd and Craig in Left (MD)
• Freese at 3rd and an  Craig/Kelly Johnson platoon in LF (KJ/AC)

Here’s the CDF graph

The x axis is position player WAR and the y axis is probability.  For those that are not statistically inclined, the probability is the probability that the respective WAR would not be exceeded.  For example, the probability that the Holliday team won’t exceed the 2009 Phils is ~0.8.  More simply stated, there’s a 20% chance that (based on CHONE offensive and my defensive projections) a Cards team with Holliday would outperform the position player production of the 2009 Phils.

The MT line is under the MD line.

Clearly this exercise doesn’t factor in that money saved could be put towards pitching (I hope to add pitching to the sim this week).  That being said it’s fairly obvious (even without the sim) that Holliday>>these plan b options.  Also of note is that going young and rolling the dice on Johnson is likely better than the proven vet options.  We’ll see what pitching adds to the equation later this week.

Data: Offensive projections from CHONE, defensive projections mine (right sidebar) or CHONE for those with no MLB experience, 2009 data from fangraphs

It was very interesting to watch the most recent episode of  Horizon  where David Attenborough spoke about the grim projections for the world population and its potential impact on our planet.

How recently it was that the number of people topped 5 billion people in the late Eighties – now we are already almost 7 billion. The fact that the resources to sustain this quantity of people are finite means that there are only that many more people who can be accommodated before we run into serious trouble and start fighting for food. Arguably in some parts of the world this process has already started.

In fact, as some scientists think, we have already over-stretched the Earth’s renewable resources beyond the point where they can regenerate (severely depleted Atlantic fish stocks spring to mind straight away) and hence are already living beyond our means. In other words, there are already too many of us about.

There is a maximum limit of people that can be sustained, which can be calculated with reference to their average demand for consumables and the total “productive capacity” of planet Earth. The methodology of calculating these figures obviously is extremely important and I am sure there is no total consensus on the figures – and also hot debate around how these are derived. David Attenborough argues that the “lifestyle” of existing humans is all-important. If everyone wanted to live like US consumers, our planet can only sustain 1.5bn people. If we lived like Rwandans, then it is 18bn.

It’s a scary thought, and one that personally has been on my mind for a while. Whilst we all carry on living our reasonably easy lives in a consumerist society we don’t worry about the impact this is having on our world on a daily basis. So what is one to do? Surely we won’t all give up our cars, nice holidays, stop buying clothes, or quit our jobs so that we can tend our plots and grow our own vegetables.

This brings me to another thought which has already been debated on this blog. The biggest impact humans have on the environment – in terms of our carbon footprint or our demand for scarce resources – is by having more children. After all, by bringing another one kid into this world we create another human being which will end up consuming comparable amounts of “stuff” and creating comparable amounts of “waste” which will have an overall impact when taken en masse.

So whilst after watching Horizon I did indeed started feeling a renewed sense of guilt that I don’t ride a bike everywhere, or have recently indulged myself by buying a few new items of clothing, I guess should I console myself with the fact that since we don’t – and probably can’t – have children, we are sort of doing our bit for this planet, or at least not creating extra future consumers.

Hmmm.

Maybe the planet has found a way to self-regulate its population, and that is infertility of its creatures at the top of the food chain. Wise move, Mother Nature!

CuriouslyInspired

My man-crush, Mr.Buckminster Fuller:

The projection used for the world map in question, also known as the “Dymaxion Map,” was created by Buckminster Fuller, distinguished mathematician, inventor and 20th century visionary. The map began as a sketch, “The One-Town World” in 1927. “By 1954, after working on the map for several decades,” Fuller finally had a “satisfactory deck plan of the six and one half sextillion tons Spaceship Earth.”

The Dymaxion Map is the only flat map of the entire surface of the earth that reveals our planet as it really is an island in one ocean without any visible distortion of the relative shapes and sizes of the land areas, and without splitting any continents.

Traditional world maps reinforce the elements that separate humanity and fail to highlight the patterns and relationships emerging from the ever evolving and accelerating process of globalization. Instead of serving as “a precise means for seeing the world from the dynamic, cosmic and comprehensive viewpoint,” the maps we use still cause humanity to “appear inherently disassociated, remote, self-interestedly preoccupied with the political concept of its got to be you or me; there is not enough for both.”

Dude’s work on an innovative projection for representations of the Earth’s landmasses was the inspiration for one of my tattoos. Captain Fuller’s map:

however…

A new technique for unpeeling the Earth’s skin and displaying it on a flat surface provides a fresh perspective on geography, making it possible to create maps that string out the continents for easy comparison, or lump together the world’s oceans into one huge mass of water surrounded by coastlines.

“Myriahedral projection” was developed by Jack van Wijk, a computer scientist at the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands.

“The basic idea is surprisingly simple,” says van Wijk. His algorithms divide the globe’s surface into small polygons that are unfolded into a flat map, just as a cube can be unfolded into six squares.

Cartographers have tried this trick before; van Wijk’s innovation is to up the number of polygons from just a few to thousands. He has coined the word “myriahedral” to describe it, a combination of “myriad” with “polyhedron”, the name for polygonal 3D shapes.

Warping reality

The mathematical impossibility of flattening the surface of a sphere has long troubled mapmakers. “Consider peeling an orange and trying to flatten it out,” says van Wijk. “The surface has to distort or crack.”

Some solutions distort the size of the continents while roughly preserving their shape – the familiar Mercator projection, for instance, makes Europe and North America disproportionately large compared with Africa. Others, like the Peters projection, keep landmasses at the correct relative sizes, at the expense of warping their shapes.

An ideal map would combine the best properties of both, but that is only possible by inserting gaps into the Earth’s surface, resulting in a map with confusing interruptions. Van Wijk’s method makes it possible to direct those cuts in a way that minimises such confusion.

Maps of significance

When generating a map he assigns a “weighting” to each edge on the polyhedron to signal its importance, influencing the placement of the cuts or folds. All the maps are equally accurate, but tweaking the weightings gives dramatically different results.

Assigning more significance to landmass gives a map of all the continents in a line, similar to Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion map. Making oceans more important than land produces one giant sea surrounded by the world’s coastlines.

“Now and then you make an unexpected discovery,” says van Wijk. A map that separates land from sea as far as possible, leaving the continents marooned away from a sinuous watery mass, was one such serendipitous result of playing with the algorithm’s parameters.

Projection means prize

“His approach was fresh and innovative,” says Kenneth Field, editor of the British Cartographic Society’s The Cartographic Journal, which recently gave van Wijk the Henry Johns award, which recognises the best mapmaking research paper each year. “He managed to achieve a projection that reduces angular deformation to an absolute minimum and preserves area – not an easy trick,” adds Field, “it was a unanimous decision to give him the prize.”

Van Wijk attributes his success to being somewhat of an outsider. Cartographers typically seek single formulae that can be used to transform the entire globe, he says, while computer scientists look for algorithms that work in small steps and can be more adaptable.

I’m gonna update this post with a picture of this nonsense I have on my right arm for the rest of my life (ps, its rules!). I’m working with limited technology (on the road in Brazil), but I will deliver on this promise. Aight!

Up Up and Away,
Sunshine Superboy

Posted: December 10, 2009

It’s playoff time, and at no other point in the season is finding that diamond in the rough more important.  Thus, we’re gonna change it up a bit from here on.  Rather than give you two or three guys at a position who could help you get to the next round, I’m going to be spotlighting a few players, regardless of position, who are high-end Sleepers based on match-ups and trends (targets and touches).  Here are the Sleepers for Week 14:

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 24-37, 245 yards, 2 TD

I’ve been riding the Alex Smith bandwagon for several weeks now, and he’s continued to play at a high level.  Still, he’s owned in fewer than 40% of leagues on most major platforms.  In Week 14, Smith faces the 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL (based on yards allowed per game) in the Arizona Cardinals.  Monday Night Football.  At home.  It’s a huge game for the 49ers, who are looking to salvage any hope for a playoff birth in 2009.  Smith is a better play than the likes of Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and several others you’d potentially consider starting, including, dare I say, Tom Brady!  Well, that might be going out on a limb, even though Brady is up against the 6th ranked Carolina Panthers pass defense.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Opponent: Oakland Raiders
Projection: 18 touches, 91 yards, 1 TD

In my weekly Bruno Boys column, which I write on Tuesday and is published on Wednesday, I tabbed Rock Cartwright the Week 14 “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week“.  That was before the Skins handed the job to Ganther.  Ganther ran harder and faster than Cartwright in Week 13, and is a great flex play against the Oakland Raiders (who surrender 158.7 ypg to opposing backs, and have given up 18 rushing touchdowns).  Ganther got 8 touches last week, but will flip-flop his numbers with Cartwright, who has been handed 55 touches over the past three weeks (18.3 tpg).  Plus, Ganther is available in nearly 90% of leagues!

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals
Projection: 20-33, 210 yards, 1 TD, 5-21 rushing

Like Smith, I’ve been riding the Young bandwagon, and rightfully so.  The guy gets it done on both the fantasy and reality gridirons.  He’s coming off back-to-back solid fantasy weeks (19 fantasy points in Week 12, 16 last week – in standard scoring leagues with no bonuses), and even when he struggles, he finds a way to hit double-digits in fantasy points.  Evidence: Week 13 versus Houston (12-22, 116 yards, 1 TD, 11-73 rushing, 1 fumble lost, 13 fantasy points).  Young, like Smith, is a better play this week against the Rams — though they’re 16th ranked pass D is a bit underrated — than some of the guys mentioned in the write-up on Smith above.  No, Tom Brady is not one of them.

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD

Britt leads the Titans in targets over the past three weeks with 25, and despite only hauling in three balls for 46 yards in Week 13 (on 9 targets), he still scored a touchdown for the third straight game.  As stated in the Vince Young snippet, the Rams have an underrated pass defense, and have allowed just 16 touchdowns through the air in 2009.  Still, I expect Young to throw for a score, and Britt, the rookie, has matured into the target to whom the QB most likes to throw.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD

Finley has been targeted 24 times over the past three weeks, and his 8 target, 7 catch, 79 yard, 2 TD performance in Week 13 wasn’t an apparition.  The Bears are tough against the pass, but have yielded 21 scores through the air.  Don’t expect another 19 fantasy point outing from the Packer tight end, but don’t be surprised if he comes close, either.

Please Deploy the following Non-Sleepers:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Cheifs @ Buffalo Bills
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

For more in depth insight, visit brunoboys.net and check out Fasulo’s Forecaster.

The following excerpt is from a commentary by Atmospheric Scientist and Hurricane forecasting specialist Dr. William Gray. Gray is the renowned hurricane forecaster and Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU). He originally published this article on Climate Depot.

There has been an unrelenting quarter century of one-sided indoctrination of the Western world by the media and by various scientists and governments concerning a coming carbon dioxide (CO2) induced global warming disaster. These warming scenarios have been orchestrated by a combination of environmentalists, vested interest scientists wanting larger federal grants and publicity, the media which profits from doomsday scenario reporting, governmental bureaucrats who want more power over our lives, and socialists who want to level-out global living standards. These many alarmist groups appear to have little concern over whether their global warming prognostications are accurate, however. And they most certainly are not. The alarmists believe they will be able to scare enough of our citizens into believing their propaganda that the public will be willing to follow their advice on future energy usage and agree to a lowering of their standard of living in the name of climate salvation.

I am a skeptic that has heard this bull from back in 1976 to date. Prior to that in 74 and 75 we was inundated with the global ice age that was upon us and how the ice was about to push down our back door. When this did not seem to phase anyone, the same bunch of cracker heads came up with this global warming, and how by 2012 the globe would be devastated and we would all be starving to death from the lack of food and over population, I mean they painted a dooms day scenario that would make Al Gore look like a rank amateur.

Well 2010 is just around the corner and it would appear they only way these cracker heads are going to see their projections come true is if they make it happen themselves, therefore the tax and trade bill. We get taxed into poverty, and trade our freedom for their man made hell. They have two more years left to make it happen.

The recent "Climategate" revelations coming out of the University of East Anglia are but the tip of a giant iceberg of a well organized international climate warming conspiracy that has been gathering momentum for the last 25 years. This conspiracy would become much more manifest if all the e-mails of the publically funded climate research groups of the US and of foreign governments were ever made public.

That my friend is what Copenhagen is all about and the reason for the urgency.

Think I’m wrong?

Think again. If these cracker heads really believed their spew, do you think they would create more of a carbon footprint in two weeks than six small nations can in a years time just to declare the urgency of it?

No, the cost is the cost of war, the war to overthrow the prosperity of everyone but themselves. It is our money they are after in the form of government grants. They are not satisfied with the amount they have already swindled us out of. Read their email, they are not scientist, they are just mere politicians spinning their crap just like all politicians do to get elected.

The disastrous economic consequences of restricting CO2 emissions from the present by as much as 20 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 (as being proposed in Copenhagen) have yet to be digested by the general public. Such CO2 output decreases would cause very large increases in our energy costs, a lowering of our standard of living, and do nothing of significance to improve our climate.

The cap-and-trade bill presently before Congress, the likely climate agreements coming out of the Copenhagen Conference, and the EPA’s just announced decision to treat CO2 as a pollutant represents a grave threat to the industrial world’s continued economic development. We should not allow these proposals to restrict our economic growth. Any United Nations climate bill our country might sign would act as an infringement on our country’s sovereignty.

As I said, they are mere politicians looking to fulfill their political agenda. You and I are the last thing they have on their minds, only our pocket books and bank accounts. There is not a single scientist among them.

Socialism is just a fancy word for slavery.

That is the view from here,

Duane

NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation

The Playoffs You Wished For 

Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2           #9 Seed

Big East–Cincinnati 12-0                   #3 Seed

Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2         #8 Seed

Big 12—Texas 13-0                    #2 Seed

Pac-10—Oregon 10-2                #7 Seed

SEC—Alabama 13-0                             #1 Seed

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC—T C U 12-0                       #4 Seed

WAC—Boise State 13-0             #6 Seed

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Florida 12-1                                 #5 Seed

Iowa 10-2                                    #10 Seed

Virginia Tech 10-2                     #11 Seed

L S U 9-3                                      #12 Seed

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5^th through 12^th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Opening Round

Outback Bowl    #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U  Dec 17

Alamo Bowl       #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  Dec 18

Holiday Bowl     #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa  Dec 19

Gator Bowl         #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech  Dec 19

Quarterfinal Round

Cotton Bowl                #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Capital One Bowl       #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Rose Bowl                             #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Sugar Bowl                  #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Semifinal Round

Fiesta Bowl        Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9

Orange Bowl     Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9

National Championship Game

Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner  Jan 23

1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.

2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.

3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out.  This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.

4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams.  The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.

5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.

Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings.  Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0.  The game still has bowl implications.  If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple.  If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.

Bowl Lineups

Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff

What is wrong with the organisers of fun in Fremantle? First they decided in their bureaucratic wisdom to take the Bhangra dance party away from the strip, and last evening they were having the Christmas Carols inside the town hall with the doors closed, instead of outside in St John’s Square, where they should be and were in the past.

There were lovely old Christmas cards projections onto the town hall in total silence, because the carols were over when that started, and no other music was played. To top it all off, the street lights went on when the projections started, although they should have stayed off for the duration. It negatively affected the picture quality. How frustrating for the young people who put it together so well.

Come on City of Fremantle, we are supposed to be a hip and arty city, not a boring country town. Get your act together and strive for perfection for a change.

The new promo to attract visitors to Fremantle should be changed to: FIND YOURSELF IN MEDIOCRE FREMANTLE!

Roel Loopers

There’s a couple of different defensive projections that are currently available for all to see.  You’ve got mine linked over on the right sidebar, and Jeff Z’s available through this link.  The beauty of the two sets of projections are that the respective methodologies are discussed in the articles presenting them, and the projections are fairly simple to compare (i.e. only one number really).  A second positive is that the methodologies only differ by one element, the FSR, as Jeff includes 4 yrs UZR (when available) and I include 3 yrs + the fans.  Since that’s the only difference, it makes drawing some insights/conclusions from analyzing the differences a little simpler, and that’s exactly what I’m going to step through here.  Jeff is doing the same over at BtB, so go check out his piece as well.

First, I’d like to get a feel for just how different the two projections were.  For that a simple distribution should do the trick.  The absolute difference is across the x axis and the count is on the y.

Clearly the majority of the differences are less that 4 runs and over half has a difference of 0 or 1.  Given that there are differences though, what positions are the differences coming from.  In this chart absolute difference is again across the x, but now percent (by position) is on the y.

At first glance it seems like the outfield becomes more prevalent the farther right you go…

So now that we have a decent idea of the magnitude of the differences, it’s time to dig into where the actual differences are.  Who is affected by adding in the FSR as a factor?  I’ll answer that question by examining two parameters: 1)Experience of the player and 2)Position / FSR rank combination.  This first table highlights the experience piece

As one would expect the less experience the player has the bigger the difference between the two projections.  The FSR number are a larger percentage of the puzzle for less experienced players as I weighted it at 125 games no matter what the experience level of the player was.  [Update: I used my effective defensive games to bin the games, not actual games as Jeff did in his analysis]

Finally, which position / FSR rank combos gained the most by inclusion of the FSR

and lost the most

All told  it appears that the FSR does make a difference, but it’s usually only on the order of a couple of runs, which is well within the margin of error for UZR.  It has the potential to clear up the picture for players with limited major league experience, as it makes the “available data set” larger, so there is less regression to the mean.

This projections were prepared by the Analysis and Advocacy Project in Thailand, in collaboration with the Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDS Projections, and with funding support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The present projections are an update of the projections prepared in 2000. While the projections were culculated with a model similar to that used in 2000, two new components including MSM and ART were added. These updated projections were prepared to support of the development of the Thailand 10th National AIDS Plan.

Insummary, the state of the HIV epidemic in 2008 is:

• 1,115,000 adults have been infected with HIV in Thailand since the start of the epidemic.
• 585,800 of these people have subsequently died of AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic.
• 532,500 people are currently living with HIV.
• 12,800 new infections will occur in the year 2008.
• 48,000 people will develop serious illness in the year 2008.

It needs to be noted that the number of new infections projected was based on the assumption that risk behaviors and STI rates remain unchanged from 2005 onwards. If changes in levels of risk behaviors or STI occur, the number of new infections will increase or decrease accordingly. More details of this book, please come to the College library.

Table Mountain was victim of ambush marketing in Cape Town last night. A projection of 4 faces spreading a World Cup 2010 message was seen projected onto the mountain. Officials have been baffled as to the agency/client in charge..

It’s The Week We’ve All Been Waiting For

It seems like just last week the college football season kicked off, and here it is the end of the regular season.  A handful of games can potentially scramble the bowl bids that will go out Sunday.  With the holidays bringing the five PiRates together under the same roof in northwest Wisconsin for too much turkey and other booty, we stayed up late gathering information for this special bowl edition.  We think through hard work and phone calls to contacts in multiple locations, we have one of the best views of the bowl games.

This edition will not be a speculative one.  We are actually trying to use information we have gathered to report where we believe the bowls are looking with six days to go.

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game:  Obviously the winner of this week’s Alabama-Florida game in the SEC Championship will finish number one.  If Texas wins, then everything is rather easy.  The Longhorns will finish number two.  Here’s where things get dicey.  If Texas loses, there will be controversy no matter which team makes it to Pasadena.  TCU would be the logical choice, but Cincinnati could edge ahead of the Horned Frogs with a convincing win over Pittsburgh.  And, if Alabama were to edge Florida by a point or win in overtime, there is still a possibility that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch.  Remember something; part of the BCS equation is human voting.  The fourth estate has never been confused for being honest and just.  All it takes is for a few voters to move TCU down one spot, and the fix would be in.

We believe Nebraska’s lack of offense will make this all superfluous.  Texas will win by double digits this week and face the SEC winner for the national championship.  We’ve taken a vote here in the Northwoods; one of us believes Florida will win this week.  One of us believes Alabama will win, and the other three consider it a tossup.  It should be the next “greatest game,” in the mold of Ohio State and Michigan in 2006, Florida State and Florida in 1996, Notre Dame and USC in 1988, and the two greatest late season matchups of #1 vs. #2—Oklahoma and Nebraska in 1971 and Notre Dame and Michigan State in 1966. 

Orange Bowl: The winner of this week’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game for the ACC Championship will automatically go to Miami.  We believe Clemson has a better than 50% chance of pulling off the upset.  In their regular season game, Clemson’s comedy of errors led to the Yellow Jackets getting a big lead.  The Tigers made a great comeback and almost pulled it off.  We thing CU gets revenge this week and heads to Miami with a weak 8-4 record.  The Orange Bowl will get the third selection in the at-large draft if Texas wins.  The Sugar and Fiesta Bowls will have already picked because they will have lost teams to the National Championship Game.  With Alabama or Florida and Iowa already taken off the board, this pick will come down to either the Big East champion, Boise State, or TCU.  If Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, we don’t see the Bearcats being chosen even though they would be 12-0.  Cincinnati played in Miami last year.  It would come down to TCU and Boise State.  Believe it or not, Boise’s fans travel better, so we will go with Boise State here.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Panthers will probably wind up here, and Boise State would head to the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Assuming Texas wins, the Fiesta Bowl will get the second and fourth picks in the at-large draft.  The SEC loser will be off the table, and we believe the best choice for this bowl will be Iowa.  After the Orange Bowl picks Boise State, TCU becomes the logical choice.  If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, then Boise State would land here.

Sugar Bowl: Without a doubt, the loser of the SEC Championship will play here if both SEC teams don’t play again in Pasadena.  The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace the number one team being lost to the National Championship Game.  The Sugar Bowl also gets the last pick in the at-large draft.  Since this cannot be a Hobson’s Choice, Cincinnati would land here as the only option if the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh.  If Pittsburgh wins this week, then TCU would land here.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is already assured of playing here.  The winner of Thursday night’s Oregon-Oregon State game will be the opponent.  There can be no other options this year.

The Top-Tier Non-BCS Bowls

Capital One Bowl: LSU seems to be a shoo-in for this bowl after Ole Miss fell to Mississippi State.  Penn State will land here if Iowa is chosen over the Lions for a BCS Bowl.  We see no reason for Penn State fans to believe they can beat out Iowa, especially if the bowl in question is the Fiesta Bowl.

Outback Bowl: The top remaining SEC East team is supposed to play here, while the top remaining SEC West team is supposed to play in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss played in Dallas last year, and there was talk that there could be a trade-off with Ole Miss heading to Tampa.  However, late news seems to support the Rebels playing in the Cotton Bowl again, so Tennessee looks like the choice here.  The Big Ten representative will be Wisconsin unless the Badgers lose in Hawaii this weekend.  If that happens, it changes a lot of other bowls. 

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State should receive this invitation, since the Cowboys have the second best record, but Nebraska or over Oklahoma could leapfrog them.  For now, we will stick with the most politically correct pick and go with Oklahoma State.  According to late-breaking news, the SEC representative will be Ole Miss. 

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame’s fold means the Big East gets this spot.  The loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game will end up in Jacksonville.  We believe Georgia Tech will lose to Clemson this week, so the Yellow Jackets will play here.  Our pick then is Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.  If the Yellow Jackets win the ACC, then it appears that Miami would be the ACC representative.

Holiday Bowl: Southern Cal will get this bid if Oregon beats Oregon State.  If the Beavers beat the Ducks, then Oregon will drop to this bowl.  Nebraska is the logical Big 12 choice for this game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech will put the Bulldogs at the top of the list for this game, but a second year in a row of fewer hotel rooms needing to be booked (Georgia Tech played here last year) probably sends the Bulldogs somewhere else.  The likely ACC opponent will be Virginia Tech, and the SEC will try to find the best opponent.  Auburn would be the best choice, providing a match-up of offense against defense, but most of their fans can drive to this game.  We’re going with Auburn because officials from this bowl repeatedly attended their games.  Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Mid-Level Bowls

Las Vegas Bowl: Even though they have been to this bowl four years in a row, it looks like Brigham Young is headed here again.  The Mountain West would like Utah to go here, but BYU will sell their allotment for this one, while the Utes will not.

The Pac-10 opponent could be a host of teams, but we think it will be either Stanford or Oregon State.  One of those two will play here, while the other plays in the Emerald Bowl.  We’ll go with Stanford here.  If Oregon State beats Oregon, then Southern Cal or California might fall to this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: This bowl will have a choice of Florida State or Boston College.  With Bobby Bowden announcing his retirement tomorrow, the Seminoles will jump over the Eagles.  Rutgers should get the Big East invitation in this game.

Music City Bowl: This could be an interesting rivalry game.  How about North Carolina facing South Carolina?  Since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1991, these two teams have played just once.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas looks like the best option here.  The Razorbacks will fill up the stadium.  The Conference USA champion automatically plays here, so that means either Houston or East Carolina will be the opponent.  Houston and Arkansas would make this a 100-pass, 4-hour game with maybe 100+ points scored.

Sun Bowl: If Oregon wins Thursday, we believe California will be the Pac-10 representative.  Oklahoma looks like the best fit for the Big 12.

Champs Sports Bowl: If Clemson wins over Georgia Tech, Miami should fall to this bowl.  If Georgia Tech wins over Clemson, then Miami moves up to the Gator and Clemson falls here.  Northwestern should be the Big 10 opponent, but if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, NU could move up and the Badgers could fall here.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech should receive this bid, and their opponent should be Michigan State.  It could take 40 points to win this game.

The Bottom Tier

St. Petersburg Bowl: This second year bowl has a chance to make a big splash by bringing together two in-state teams that played each other the last four years but not this year.  Central Florida and South Florida could sell this game out.  We think it is a strong possibility, but the chances for this dream game have dropped some the last few days.

New Mexico Bowl: Unless some back room deals are made, the Mountain West opponent will be Wyoming.  There could be some wheeling and dealing to bring an at-large team here and ship Wyoming to the Humanitarian Bowl, but for now, we’ll keep the Cowboys here.  The WAC opponent will be either Nevada or Fresno State.  If Hawaii upsets Wisconsin, then there will be one extra WAC team available.  For now, we’ll stick with Nevada.

New Orleans Bowl: Troy won the Sunbelt Conference Championship and earns the automatic bid here.  There is a rule where the SBC champion could move to a higher-paying bowl, but for that to happen, the SBC must supply two additional seven-win teams.  There are only two of these teams, so Troy will play here barring some “exception.”   The C-USA opponent should be Southern Mississippi.

Poinsettia Bowl: All signs point to BYU playing here, but we just don’t see the Las Vegas bowl passing over the Cougars for Utah.  So, we’re going against the grain and picking Utah to end up in San Diego.  Arizona looks like the Pac-10 opponent.  If the Wildcats upset USC, then there is a small chance they could move up.

Hawaii Bowl:  Here’s where a giant monkey wrench could be thrown into the bowl games.  Hawaii will get this bid with a win over Wisconsin.  We might be biased, but we think the Badgers can pull this one out.  So, in that case, Fresno State should be the WAC representative.  The hot CUSA choice is SMU, which would bring June Jones back to the island.  Since this bowl desperately wants a Hawaii-SMU game, look for this week’s Hawaii-Wisconsin game to be one of the most partially-biased officiated games.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: This bowl could be in for a mess.  Central Michigan played here last year, so it looks like the Chippewas are headed to Mobile, Alabama.  A bigger problem is that there will not be a Big 10 team available for this game.  Because the at-large pool must take all the seven-win teams before any 6-6 team can be selected, this bowl might have to invite two MAC teams, neither of which are the conference champion.

Ohio U should be the official MAC selection.  This bowl would love to bring Notre Dame here, but even if one 6-6 team can be chosen, it looks like the Irish will vote not to play in any bowls.  Middle Tennessee, at 9-3, would be the best at-large option, but we believe the Blue Raiders will be invited somewhere else first.  So, this bowl will have to look for two MAC teams that have not played.  That leaves Northern Illinois against Bowling Green.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College will be the last available ACC team, and they will fortunate to sell half of their ticket allotment.  Oregon State or Stanford will be the opponent here, and since we pegged Stanford for the Las Vegas Bowl, we’ll put the Beavers here.

Independence Bowl: This bowl is tired of having teams that don’t want to be here, but it will be the case once again with the SEC.  Georgia could very well end up here if the Chick-fil-A looks elsewhere.  The Big 12 representative will come down to either Texas A&M or Iowa State.  If Georgia is chosen to play in Atlanta, then this bowl will jump at the chance to pit Auburn with Iowa State for obvious reasons (Auburn coach Gene Chizik was at Iowa State and Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was at Auburn).  Under the assumption that Auburn will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we’ll slate Georgia here against Texas A&M.

Eagle Bank Bowl: This second year bowl faces the possibility that neither of its two tie-ins will be able to supply a team.  Army has to beat Navy to earn their bid.  We believe that will happen, and the Cadets will make life easier for this bowl.  The ACC will definitely not have an available team for this bowl, so an at-large team will be selected.  Temple will be making its first bowl trip in almost two decades, so the Owls will be a good choice.  If Army loses to Navy, then a 6-6 team will end up here.  Since Notre Dame will not be available if they vote not to go to a bowl, Marshall may get this bid, even though Coach Mark Snyder just resigned.

Humanitarian Bowl: With Boise State almost assured of making it to a BCS Bowl if Texas beats Nebraska, this bowl will look to Idaho to replace the Broncos.  With TCU earning a BCS bowl, the MWC will not have an available team for this game.  With all the seven-win teams coming from over 1,500 miles away from Boise, it looks like UCLA could become the one 6-6 bowl team and play here.

Armed Forces Bowl:  The MWC team should be Air Force, as it is a no-brainer to have a service academy playing here.  The C-USA opponent should be the loser of the ECU-Houston game this week.  Houston would be a great counterpart.

Texas Bowl: Navy has already secured one of these spots.  Iowa State or Texas A&M will be the opponent depending on which way the Independence bowl goes.

Insight.com Bowl: Minnesota will be the last Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order, so the Gophers will get this bid.  Missouri is the likely Big 12 opponent.

International Bowl:  Connecticut is the logical choice as the Big East representative.  Ohio U may be shipped here, as they cannot play in the Pizza Bowl against either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois (they beat both).

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky should be the last available SEC team, and the Wildcats will travel well to Birmingham.  West Virginia would be an excellent opponent here.

I have been coaching soccer now for about five years. I started with our oldest boy and have continued on with the program in the spring and fall. I would have to say that I look forward to soccer more than the boys do. There is something about bringing together a team and working towards a goal. Seeing progress at practice and on the field is very rewarding. Regardless of the players, a good team will out play and win a poor team with a few superstars.

What does soccer have to do with running a painting company?

1. Practice. Just today I spent a few hours with one of our newest franchisees as we went through the business, preparing forecasts, and committing to certain tactics that are proven to work in the field. This is an exercise every business owner should engage in regularly. It is the art of visualizing a business on a spreadsheet that gives you the foundation to go out and execute. To keep your COGS (cost of goods sold) in line. To ask for the close and keep your close ratio to projections.
2. Teams win. In the service industry you need your team to work like a well oiled machine. Our sales center offers the backstop support for our strikers. They are confident that if they are working hard at trying to put the ball in the net. Understanding that their back is covered to make sure every call that comes in is serviced, and sent back to them to score. In today’s environment, your team is everyone on the field with you, and off the field cheering for you. Involving your significant-other or advisors in your success and failures gives you perspective and encouragement to get out there and make it happen.
3. Don’t run around like a chicken with your head cut off. In the service industry this is especially relevant. You can waste valuable energy trying to run that ball up and down the field when the pass would have gotten it there twice as fast. In business, you need to be able to delegate, pass the buck, and involve others in your success.

One of the most rewarding parts of business is in the perfect execution of a sale from the moment the opportunity presents itself, all the way through production and payment. It takes practice working like a team and efficient use of your resources to pull it off.

I just love this bit of dialogue from Evelyn Waugh’s Brideshead Revisited.
Cruel in its simplicity.

—

I don’t believe you’ve changed at all, Charles.

No, I’m afraid not.

D’you want to change?

It’s the only evidence of life.

But you might change so that you didn’t love me anymore.

There is that risk.

Charles, you haven’t stopped loving me?

You said yourself I hadn’t changed.

Well, I’m beginning to think you have. I haven’t.

No, no; I can see that.

Were you at all frightened at meeting me today?

Not in the least.

You didn’t wonder if I should have fallen in love with someone else in the meantime?

No. Have you?

You know I haven’t. Have you?

No. I’m not in love.

I find it rewarding to help families deal with succession planning issues in family businesses. I am a director of The Ontario Chapter of Family Firm Institute (FFI), which is an organization focused on three pillars:
1) interdisciplinary education,
2) networking opportunities for family business advisors and
3) to increase public awareness about trends and developments in the family business and family wealth fields.

FFI has been an excellent netwoorking source to meet other professionals who advise family businesses.As a business valuator and family business advisor, I am frequently asked for the best method to maximize the price of a business when the business founder decides that transition of the business is not to be passed on to the next generation. Preparing your business for sale means much more than sprucing up its curb appeal and the organization and cleanliness of the plant. Clearly, these are important factors to create a positive first impression. However, there is a substantial amount of planning that should take place well in advance of exposing the business for sale. While the preparation process can be time consuming, the following 5 steps can significantly increase the price realized for your business.

Step # 1: Update and Normalize Financial Statements

One of the most important information items that potential buyers will be relying on will be your companys financial statements. If they are unaudited, you may want to consider upgrading the quality of the financial statements to an audit. The key advantage of audited financial statements is that financial information will have more credibility in the eyes of the buyer and may enhance the value of your business.

The business owner and advisors must have a good understanding of the reasons for fluctuations in revenue, gross profit percentages and expenses from year to year. Furthermore, it is a good idea to normalize the historical financial statements to show the true profitability, by adjusting for items including uneconomic management remuneration. salaries paid to non-working family members, benefits paid on the owner’s behalf that would likely not be incurred by a buyer; and non-recurring expenses.

Step # 2: Prepare Projections

A well reasoned and realistic business plan incorporating a projection of future profit for the next one to five years can result in a significant increase in the value of a company. Therefore, such projections are an excellent vehicle to paint a picture of the future plan for the business, specifically identifying growth opportunities and untapped expansion potential.

The preparation of projections may allow you to demand better terms, as it may convince buyers of the growth potential of the business. A properly prepared business plan and projection may also enhance the buyers ability to secure financing for the purchase.

The projections are developed using a “bottom-up” approach. This means that the projection is built upon the underlying assumptions (e.g., number of units that can be sold each month; selling price per unit; actual and potential customers, market penetration, etc.).

Step # 3: Gain an Understanding of the Value of Your Business

An outside valuation of your business has the following advantages:

Prevents leaving money on the table by under valuing the business;

If the lowest price that an owner will accept greatly exceeds the business valuation, it may not be the best time to sell the business;

Provides a benchmark for evaluating bids for the business;

Provides an understanding of the value drivers of your business which can enthuse prospective buyers about your business and indicate those drivers which are currently “weaknesses” that need to be addressed prior to the sale.

One of the best ways to enhance the value of your business is to take the current weaknesses in the business and change them into positive factors. For example, over a period of time, changing a business with a high percentage of sales derived from a few large customers, to one with a broader customer base can result in a significant enhancement to the value of the business.

There are many excellent resources dealing with this stage in the sale planning process. I recommend “Good to Great“, by Jim Collins and “100 Ways to Win The Profit Game“, by Barry R, Schimel, CPA and Gary R. Kravitz. Also, an independent business valuation can be conducted or an operational review of your business can be performed to recommend strategies to enhance the value of your business.

Step # 4: Plan for Tax Consequences of Sale

It is imperative that you consider the tax implications of a sale well in advance. For example, if the business satisfies the criteria for a Qualified Small Business Corporation (“QSBC”), a sale of shares could qualify for a $500,000 capital gains exemption. If the business does not satisfy the criteria because some of the assets may not be used in an active business carried on in Canada (e.g., marketable securities, real estate, excess cash, etc.), it may be possible to “purify” the company by transferring these passive assets to another corporation.

You should also consider whether it is more advantageous to sell shares or assets. Vendors usually desire to sell shares, primarily to obtain the capital gains exemption. On the other hand, purchasers usually want to buy the assets of the corporation for two primary reasons:

The purchaser will not be responsible for liabilities that are not known at the date of closing; and

On an assets purchase, the buyer has the ability to step up the cost base of depreciable property to fair market value, thereby increasing the capital cost allowance available to be deducted against future taxable income.

It should be noted that in most circumstances it is necessary to have held the shares in the QSBC for a period of 24 months to take advantage of the capital gains exemption.

Step # 5: Diversify Management Talent

If you ask a private equity firm what is the most important factor in assessing whether or not to invest in a business and what price to pay, the first response is usually the quality of management.

Businesses that depend solely on the owner may have difficulty selling and the price of the business will be negatively impacted because of the increased risk from the buyers perspective. When a business is too dependent on the owner, there is risk of loss of customers that only have a relationship with the owner, key employees that have remained with the company because of the owner and suppliers who may have had a long-term relationship with the owner.Therefore, it is critical to broaden the strength of the middle management team to reduce the risks in these areas.

Rivalry Week

Throw The Stats Out The Window

This is the college football week where more money is lost by those who don’t know what they are doing and more money is made by those who do know.  Certain rivalry games are just that—real rivalries.  Others are nothing but an annual beating on a little sister.

There is another bigger factor to this week’s games.  It’s the bowl factor.  Several teams are still looking for one final win to become bowl eligible.  A 5-6 team hosting an 8-3 team must be looked at quite differently than a 2-9 team hosting a 4-7 team.  The desire to get to 6-6 far outweighs the desire to avoid a 10-loss season.

Let’s look at the bowl eligible teams by conference as well as the teams needing to win this week to gain bowl eligibility.

Clemson and Georgia Tech have already clinched their divisions and will meet for the ACC Championship.  Tech edges the Tigers in Atlanta in September, but Clemson gave the game away.

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest this week to earn their first bowl in 15 years.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and he should receive some national recognition in the Coach of the Year balloting.

The ACC has nine automatic bowl bids, and only seven bowl eligible teams as of now.  The GMAC Bowl will need to find an at-large team to fill the vacant position, and if Duke loses this week, the Eagle Bank Bowl will look to the MAC to fill that vacant slot.

Regardless of what happens in the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown this weekend, the winner of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game will be Big East Champions and automatic BCS Bowl representative.  Cincinnati could still conceivably earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid at 11-1, but that chance is slimmer than slim.

Connecticut can gain bowl eligibility with a win at home against Syracuse this weekend, and they would get another chance next week against South Florida if they faltered against the Orangemen.  If the Huskies get that win, then the Big East will have six bowl eligible teams for six guaranteed spots.  Notre Dame could still possibly steal the Sun Bowl/Gator Bowl spot that goes to a Big East team if the Irish beat Stanford, but it would be a disgrace for them to steal a post at 7-5.  We believe Stanford will take care of business and keep Notre Dame out of the bowl picture altogether this year.

The Big 10 season is basically over.  Illinois has a couple of non-conference games remaining, and the only important factor in that is they play Cincinnati this weekend.  Wisconsin goes to Hawaii in two weeks, and the Outback Bowl bid could be riding on them winning the game.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that a second Big 10 team, either Iowa or Penn State, will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  So, there will be seven teams available for eight bowls.  The Pizza Bowl (formerly Motor City Bowl) will have to look elsewhere and may be forced to invite two MAC teams.

Nebraska and Texas will face off in the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Cornhuskers may have a shot at pulling off a huge upset.  We give the ‘Huskers about a 15% chance of frustrating the Longhorn offense and win ugly.  If so, then another team from the Lone Star State will benefit.

After beginning the season at 5-0, Kansas finds itself in a must-win situation against Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  They must earn The Brass Drum to earn a bowl bid.

The most important game though will be the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game in Norman.  If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they will more than likely earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid at the expense of Boise State.  The Sooners must win to guarantee themselves a winning season.  The PiRate Ratings have had a devil of a time with OU this year.  Even at 6-5, their power rating keeps them in the top 10.  It’s hit or miss with them, as they showed how strong they are when they took Texas to the final gun.

If Kansas wins over Missouri, there will be 10 bowl eligible teams for eight guaranteed bowl spots (nine if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma).  Look for Iowa State to be the odd team out of the mix.

Welcome to the conference where everything changes weekly.  With SMU losing to Marshall, the door opened once again for Houston to ascend to the CUSA Championship Game.  A win over Rice is all that’s needed, but all of a sudden the Owls have found their way.  It could be an interesting game—at least for a half.

The East Division championship will be decided this weekend when Southern Miss visits East Carolina.

UAB can gain bowl eligibility with a win over  Central Florida, but it may be a moot point.  There are only five guaranteed bowl spots with a sixth if Army fails to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Six CUSA teams are already bowl eligible, and the Blazers cannot compete with Marshall or SMU in fanbase.

All three independents are still in the bowl mix, but as of now, only Navy is guaranteed a spot.  Notre Dame must beat Stanford to get to 7-5 and earn priority over every other possible at-large team.  At 6-6, they more than likely will find themselves out of the picture as there will be enough seven-win teams to fill the at-large spots.

Army must beat Navy to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Navy has won seven in a row in this series, so it should be one of the best in this series in many years.

Central Michigan has already clinched the West Division, and the Chippewas will play the winner of this week’s Ohio U-Temple game in the MAC Championship Game. 

Two teams will be playing for that important seventh win this week.  Bowling Green hosts Toledo, and Kent State hosts Buffalo.

The MAC gets three guaranteed bowl bids and will get a fourth if Duke fails to beat Wake Forest and earn an Eagle Bank Bowl bid.   That’s where the Bowling Green and Kent State games come into play.  Both could earn bowl bids with wins, and one could even play in the Pizza Bowl against another MAC team.

TCU will manhandle New Mexico this week and then hope that either Texas A&M or Nebraska can upset Texas, Florida State can upset Florida, or Auburn can upset Alabama.  The Horned Frogs need two of the big three teams ahead of them to lose.  The loser of the SEC Championship Game means that either Texas must lose this week or next or the winner of the SEC Championship Game must lose this week.  If one of these events happen, then TCU will be playing for the national championship in January.  It’s hard to believe that this program was once as weak as Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington State are today.

The one team still trying to gain bowl eligibility is Wyoming.  The Cowboys must beat Colorado State in Ft. Collins this week, and these two teams truly put the “war” in “Border War.”  It’s not a given that Wyoming can top the 3-8 Rams.

For the first time ever, the winner of the “Civil War” game between Oregon and Oregon State will earn the Rose Bowl bid.  The Ducks and Beavers are one of the best rivalry games in college football, and I’d love to have a 50-yard line seat next week in Eugene.

The Pac-10 receives six automatic bowl bids, but there are seven bowl eligible teams.  It looks like UCLA will miss out this year unless they can upset USC.  Arizona must beat either Arizona State or USC to get to seven wins.  If both the Bruins and Wildcats win seven games, then expect to see the Pac-10 receiving an extra bid to a western bowl.

This is a monster conference!  With Alabama and Florida headed to Atlanta to play what will be the “Game Of The Decade” (assuming both win this week), it is a given that the loser will still play in a BCS Bowl.  It isn’t completely out of the realm that if the SEC Championship game goes to overtime or is decided in regulation by a point, and if Texas loses to either Texas A&M or Nebraska, that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch for all the marbles.

With 10 bowl eligible teams, the SEC will place all 10 in bowls.  There will be a lot of last minute shuffling because there isn’t much difference between team number three and team number 10.

This league is almost assured of earning a second bowl bid this year.  Troy will play in the New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee will get an at-large bid somewhere.  Both Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe can get to seven wins, but it will take big upsets for both to do so.  ULL plays Troy, while ULM plays MTSU.

Here’s where things should get interesting.  Boise State is a win over Nevada away from being 12-0 and the proverbial odd team out.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys will steal the last BCS Bowl bid at the Broncos’ expense.  Then, watch for the United States Government to put their messy fingers into the college football pigpen. 

Before we get into this mess, Boise State has to beat Nevada.  The Wolf Pack is not a pushover, and it could easily take 50 or more points to win this game.

Of course, if the Sooners win over OSU, then it looks favorable for BSU getting into the field.  Then, they would be competing against a one or two-loss Big East team and maybe a two-loss Georgia Tech team.

If Boise State moves up, then the WAC is safe with four bowls for four bowl eligible teams.

Hawaii could still sneak into the mix, but they would have to beat Navy and Wisconsin.  We don’t see that happening.

Bowl Speculations