I call it dangerous because I’m sure I may end up looking back on these and think to myself “what was I smoking?”. I have a love-hate relationship with prospect rankings. It’s just that they can so debatable, which makes them fun and also makes them mind-numbing. And I think some sites out there just throw together rankings all too willy-nilly, because people like discussing lists and it’s a cheap way to get people to visit and talk about your site. I don’t want to do that. But I have been thinking about this for a while…there have been some players who have had some serious helium-Jess Todd and Daryl Jones for example-and other players have fallen out of the picture. And there also was a draft this past June, in case you haven’t heard. So therefore, I figure my personal rankings could use an update. I’m not going to go as far as 25 like I do in the winter; we’ll just go with 15 for right now w/mini-snippets on why they are there.

1. Colby Rasmus-Prolonged early season slump or no slump, Colby’s status has not changed.
2. Brett Wallace- Thinking about Rasmus, Wallace and Pujols in the same lineup in the near future is pretty exciting. If that doesn’t work out, maybe they can also flip him for a former Cy Young winner.
3. Bryan Anderson-It’s a coin flip between Jaime Garcia and Anderson here for me, but I’ll give the slight edge to Anderson. He’s improved his defense and has not stopped hitting despite the challenges thrown at him. Will he still be around after the All Star break is the question.
4. Jaime Garcia-After obliterating AA, he’s had his ups and downs in AAA but is still holding his own.
5. Clayton Mortensen-His ERA is fine, but peripherals are actually pretty ugly in AAA, but he’s still getting a lot of groundballs and the Cardinals seem to have challenged him more than anyone in the system.
6. Daryl Jones-Daryl fell from grace last year, missing BA’s Top 30 entirely. Since then, he became a baseball player. The gap between what he is now and what he will become (20/20 OF, good OBP, defense) is still high, but nowhere near as high as it was just a year ago.
7. Jess Todd will destroy us all. What excites me more than anything about Todd is he’s been so adaptable. He quickly picked up the cutter and seems to be doing the same with a 2-seam fastball. His feel for pitching stands out more than his stuff.
8. Pete Kozma-I’m nicer to Kozma than some of my compadres here at the blog. I think he should be at least an average MLB SS, but after a hot April he’s done nothing to impress me at all. Having seen him several times in person and on the local TV station here, I’ve come up with a conspiracy theory–He changed up his swing a little and become a little more of a power hitter out of spring training. Then, at the first sign of a slump he went back to what felt comfortable to him and has become nothing more than a singles hitter. It’s just a theory, and I’m not certain of the validity but the month-by-month numbers seem to bear it out. I think he’s also had a difficult time adjusting to pro ball out of high school, so when you take that into consideration he’s not been that bad.
9. Lance Lynn-Here is my first little surprise, I guess Keith Law sold me on his potential to be a solid mid-rotation innings eater, and Chris O’Leary sold me on his durability, which I think is an underrated trait.
10. Jon Jay-I think Jay has the potential to be Coco Crisp in his 2004-2005 Cleveland Indians heyday when he was batting near .300, slugging nearly .450 and hitting double digits in the steals column while playing a solid OF. The key word is potential, I’m not saying I’d stake the farm on it. His Peak Translation currently is .288/.355/.457.
11. Mitchell Boggs-Three OKish starts, one great start and one horrific start doesn’t seem to justify sending him down. Yes, he wasn’t missing any bats, other than Royals bats but I think he is still potentialy a solid back-end starter and I’m ingtrigued at what he could possibly do in relief.
12. Adam Ottavino-I am giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt. His last few stars he’s showing signs of improvement, especially in his last outing. Hopefully he’s finally coming around.
13. Joe Mather-I can’t figure him out. He hits like he could be at least a solid average big league corner OF in double A last year and now in triple A. But my gut says he’s more of a platoon/4th OF guy.
14. Tyler Herron-I really think it was a mistake pushing him up to AA so quickly. He’s been pretty bleh but he’s only 21 and still has three average pitches and good command, so here he is.
15. Nico Vasquez-Jason Motte really probably belongs here, I admit it. But as one of the charter members on the Nico bandwagon I’ll stick him here. Quick Kozma versus Nico Smackdown: Hitting for average: Given Nico’s K’s and Kozma’s contact rate, I’d say advantage Kozma. Hitting for power: Advantage Nico, by a mile. Plate discipline: Kozma.  Speed: Kozma, easily. Range: Kozma, again, rather handily but Vasquez is no slouch despite his size. Throwing arm: Kozma, but a little closer. In a perfect world, Kozma will be playing along side Vasquez in the infield by 2011, with Kozma batting 2nd or 9th (assuming LaRussa doesn’t retire), and Vasquez batting 6th.

Update: Perez has been in the majors for over 40 games, so I didn’t include him on the list. If I were to include Perez, I would put him at #2, maybe even #3 after Wallace.

The next edition of “Three up, three down” should be up tomorrow. I’ve been a little busy lately so I haven’t really had time to put together any midday post ideas. So when in doubt, why not do a prospect ranking? The lazy bloggers’ way out! Don’t get me wrong, I’ve taken some time and really thought this through. When doing my rankings, I put my amateur GM hat on and just rank them in the order I’d want them in a trade. We’re about 40 games in; there’s been some moving and shaking. I don’t want to too heavily weigh early returns, but some prospects have gone splat (Maiques), while some are moving quickly through the system, which has to be taken into account. So for what it’s worth, here ya go:

1. Colby Rasmus-As terrible as Colby has been so far, it’s not like his tools have just evaporated. He’s still far and away the best prospect in the system; just needs more time to adjust than we hoped. I’d like to stop seeing him whiff 2 or 3 times a game as he has done lately.
2. Chris Perez-A few more blown saves by Izzy, or the closer committee, or whoever, and he will be the closer. (I would hope.)
3. Bryan Anderson-Hot April led to a promotion to AAA and he’s yet to show signs of slowing. Improved defense.
4. Jaime Garcia-Like Anderson, hot first month led to AAA call up, showing himself to be a K machine.
5. Pete Kozma-1st rounder doing more than just holding his own in first shot at the A level, his coaches have noted that he’s become a clubhouse leader.
6. Brian Barton-Still considering him a prospect until he hits the magic number of AB’s, which may be a while at the current rate. But when he’s playing, he’s playing well.
7. Clayton Mortensen-Has had his ups and downs in AA, which is to be expected.
8. Kyle McClellan-Rocketing up the board here. Impressed in big league camp, now a very nice set up reliever who could see some saves opportunities. Also, has opportunity to make it as a starter in 2009.
9. Adam Ottavino-Struggles due shoulder problem has been the story of his early season.
10. Tyler Herron-Herron won’t even walk his dog. Herron walks nothing and no man. Aggressively promoted to AA after nice April. I’m noticing a recurring theme.
11. Jon Jay-Finally healthy, swinging a hot stick in AA.
12. Mitch Boggs-What I said about Mortensen applies to Boggs. Ups and downs in trip-A to be expected.
13. Jose Martinez-Yet to really catch fire.
14. Joe Mather-Hitting very well in AAA, will need someone to get injured or seriously slump to make it to majors before September.
15. Jess Todd-Now in AA after hot April. Strong K/BB ratio 4:1.
16. David Kopp-Ground ball machine performing reasonably well at advanced A level. Call him up to AA lately. Let’s stick with protocol, people!
17. P.J. Walters-I’m a little worried about the HR/9 rates, but it’s nice to see him in AAA already. I know some of you are going to protest him being down here at #17.
18. Jason Motte-Flamethrower looks to be ready for show now, secondary offerings, schmecondary offerings.
19. Allen Craig-Coming alive after a rough April.
20. Jarrett Hoffpauir-He’s still getting on base, but not as often as before, and showing little to no power.
21. Mark Worrell-Makes more sense at the MLB level than Parisi, not much left to prove in minors,
22. Steve Hill-At first whiff of full season, according to Luhnow Hill has “mastered a ball”. Homered in 1st game in AA.
23. David Freese-The return for the charred remains of Jim Edmonds is hitting OK for making the jump from A to AAA.
24. Daryl Jones-You could think he’s finally starting to live up to his tools if you look just at his “slash” stats. Big underlying concern about his 30 K%.
25. Mike Parisi-At long last, 2004 draft’s 1st MLB player. Seems to have decent stuff, but fringy command.

I plan to have my next ranking post draft. Debate away.

I wanted to take Goldstein’s individual team rankings and run a quick and dirty check to see how it matches up against his organization rankings. Nothing complicated numbers wise and thus we’ve got some caveats to my method.

Azru’s Total

This is a really straight forward system I’m using here. I’ve got the number of prospects ranked at each “star” level from Goldstein’s Top 11 Prospect Lists. I’m assuming a pyramid structure meaning that top-tier talent is scarce compared to talent near the bottom. Thus we’d value 5-star prospects more than just 5 times a 1-star prospect. In this case, I’m using 10 points for a 5-star, 7 for a 4-star, 5 for a 3-star, 3 for a 2-star and 1 for a 1-star. Add up the value of the Top 11 prospects and we should come out close to Goldstein’s organizational rankings, ideally.

Caveats

The first and most profound difference someone is likely to have with what I’ve done is the pyramid scheme. I’m basically contending that we should value talent in a non-linear fashion. If you read The Book Blog at all, you’re probably familiar with the fact that salary research indicates MLB teams pay their free agents in a linear fashion. That’s not to say they’re right just that salaries do not reflect a non-linear relationship. In my opinion, the scarcity of top-tier talent creates an added incentive to sign those players relative to average or replacement level players. I think the same notion applies to blue chip prospects. Would you trade Colby Rasmus for Eric Patterson and Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs? I wouldn’t because I think Rasmus is more valuable than just a 3-star and a 2-star prospect. I’m not sure I can sell everyone on this concept but I want to make you at least aware of my reasoning.

The second caveat is that this process assumes all same level prospects are of the same value. Is Geovany Soto as valuable as Jay Bruce? Probably not but their teams get the same credit for each. Does it matter that some 5-stars are at AAA (Bruce) while others haven’t thrown a major league pitch prior to their rankings (Porcello)? Again, a potential flaw in the method.

The third caveat is that this method will understate depth. Once your past the Top 11 prospects, you could have Team A which still has 4 or 5 2-star prospects while Team B has only 1 more 2-star prospect. I think the attrition rate among those lesser prospects mitigates this as the Top 11 prospects are probably going to give you a decent ballpark idea of the state of the farm system.

Results

The first table shows the raw numbers for the teams. Only one team lacked the depth to make it to 1-star prospects: the lowly Royals. The average point total is approximately 60, which is right around the middle of the list. That seems to be an aesthetically pleasing result. The standard deviation is 10 points. That seems to indicate that the Rays are really a standout organization in terms of talent and the Royals, Astros and White Sox are really bottom feeders as far as farm systems are concerned. The other teams fall within (or close to) a standard deviation from average which also seems like a nice result. The process doesn’t yeild many outliers but the teams that are on the outside seem to belong there. I’d like to think that’s because the method has validity but it’s also possible (even probable) that my number stratification for the different levels supresses outliers.

So the question then becomes where do the differences lie. Below you’ll see the difference between my method and KG’s organizational rankings (Teams 1-15, Teams 16-30). Note: This is not how I, personally would rank the teams, merely what my method of tallying Goldstein’s team rankings output.

Looking at the list I’m impressed with how close the two came to matching. The significant differences seem to be the Braves, Phillies and Royals. The Braves seem to get overlooked in Goldstein’s organizational rankings. They’ve got a nice spread of talent across the tiers. I personally prefer a team like the Reds who have a lot of near-MLB ready high ceiling talent but the Braves consistently produce major leaguers from their farm system and they look like they’ll continue to do so. My method shows the Phillies being underrated but I’m not impressed with their collection of prospects by any means. Given that they are deriving most of their points from 3-star prospects, I’m willing to assign caveat #2 to this discrepancy. Either way they are a bottom third farm system. Given that the Royals are the only team to make it down into 1-star prospects and that they aren’t a top heavy system, I’d be tempted to put them dead last while Goldstein ranked them 22nd. That seems odd to me and I don’t have a good explanation for it.

Anywho, none of this should be intended as a slight towards KG, whom I have the utmost respect for. Just trying to evaluate the consistency of his work. Hold his feet to the fire, so to speak.

Take it away, Maury.

“bopbadaba! badabahbahbahbaaaaaaah!”

Here’s BA’s Top 100. The list begins and ends with two Reds centerfielders-Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs. In between, there are three Cardinals, the ones you would expect.

2. Evan Longoria
3. Joba Chamberlain
4. Clay Buchholz
5. Colby Rasmus

Later on down the row…

85. Bryan Anderson
97. Chris Perez

Thoughts anyone?

Excellent Prospects, 100+
Colby Rasmus (120.7)
Very Good Prospects, 50-100
Chris Perez (54.2)
Good Prospects, 25-50
Jaime Garcia (49.3)
Jarrett Hoffpauir (45.4)
David Freese (39.0)
Clayton Mortensen (31.0)
Bryan Anderson (30.7)
Tyler Greene (28.5)
Mark Worrell (27.8)
Average Prospects, 10-25
Allen Craig (23.0)
Mark McCormick (15.6)
Adam Ottavino (14.7)
Blake Hawksworth (10.5)
Marginal Prospects, 0-10
Mitchell Boggs (8.3)
Tyler Herron (6.9)
Tyler Norrick (6.5)
Mark Hamilton (6.5)
Cody Haerther (2.4)
Brian Barton (2.2)
Pete Kozma (1.8)

Not to be redundant some of AZ’s earlier posts, but I wanted to go a little more in depth for those of you not familiar with how PECOTA and Upside work. This list has some major differences your scouting oriented rankings, but PECOTA obviously isn’t designed to be a replacement to scouting. Personally, I consider it another tool in the prospect evaluating toolkit; a computers way of evaluating prospects based on similarity scores and measuring their worth during the period they are under team control. BP defines it as:

UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a player’s PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, including both his batting and fielding performance, then twice the number of runs he contributed above average is counted toward his UPSIDE. If the player was worse than league average, or he dropped out of the database, the performance is counted as zero.

Silver goes on to explain a little bit more from an earlier article:

Upside gives credit only for performance above league average at the player’s position, and zero credit for everything else. If a player winds up being a bench guy in the majors, or gets stuck at Double-A, or quits baseball to work in a lumberyard–none of these outcomes is desirable. On the other hand, the cost of employing a prospect is relatively low, both in terms of financial outlay and opportunity cost (a player can simply be left in the minors if he’s not good enough for MLB), so assigning negative points for a below-average or below-replacement level performance isn’t quite fair. Upside works around this negative value problem by giving credit for the good, while treating all different types of bad performance as having zero (but not negative) value. The version of Upside that we’re using here is the peak-adjusted variant, which measures a player’s most valuable five-year window up through and including his age 28 season (or simply his next five years of performance if he’s already age 25 or older). I realize that all of this is a bit complicated, and I encourage you to explore the PECOTA glossary if you’re the type that likes the dirty details. But the intuition behind our methodology is fairly simple: we’re attempting to measure the degree and probability of above-average performance while the player is under the control of his parent club. This is the real fruit of the unforgiving labor of scouting and development: getting impact performances from players who are still cheap under the reserve clause, or in arbitration.

Take Mark Hamilton, for example. He’s probably not the best guy to do this comparison with because he’s kind of sketchy, but he’ll have to do for the sake of comparison. Hamilton is the kind of player who will probably age better then Jarrett Hoffpauir. His power projects him possibly have a better career, but it doesn’t make him a favorite to produce more then Hoff while he is under team control. Mark Hamilton may likelier be a better player at 32 years old, but it won’t matter then. Both could be long gone from the Cardinals by then, because both will be able to negotiate their salaries at market price. Do you see what I’m getting at?

A few other things to keep in mind: Apparently not everyone has been run through the system, thus no Joe Mather or P.J. Walters. Or Jose Martinez, etc. Let’s go through each category and see what we got here.

Excellent prospects: Silver explains that an excellent prospect is anyone with an upside score of 100 or higher. Barring any unforeseen fluke, they are all but certain to become future stars, and even possibly future Hall of Famers. We have only one of them, and that is Colby Rasmus. Only Jay Bruce ranked higher among CF prospects, and there are those who think Bruce’s ultimate destiny is in RF. Rasmus’s most exciting comparable was Carlos Beltran. There were also a couple of flameouts-Dee Brown and Chris Lubanksi that are sort of a caution flag.

Very good prospects: These are players who have a reasonable shot at having a meaningful career, with some star potential. The Cardinals also just have one of them, and that is Chris Perez. Perez’s most favorable PECOTA comp is Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams. Frankly, I’m disappointed that I didn’t make that connection earlier. His other comps are two Yankees-Kevin Whelan and Brian Bruney. Whelan came over in the Sheffield trade and is currently ranked the #15 prospect in their system by BA. Bruney was a waiver claim, but was briefly tried out as the Dbax closer in 2005. Both have some serious control issues. Bruney was just mediocre last year in the Yankees’ pen, while Whelan dominated AA.

Good prospects: A very good player is someone likely to have a solid major league career, and a small handful may go on to be stars. Jaime Garcia was .7 points from making the “very good” category. His top comparables are Odalis Perez and Mike Hampton, which is pretty fantastic. Hampton posted ERA+’s of 107, 116, 108, 104, 122, and 154 during his seasons under team control, and as we all know ended up hitting the open market to receive on of the richest and stupidest contracts in baseball history. It seems like a long time ago, but Odalis Perez was an All Star at the age of 25. Perez ranged from middling to pretty good while w the Dodgers. Jarrett Hoffpauir’s comparables weren’t all that inspiring, Joe Lis being the best. He had an 8 year career with an OPS + of 101 as a utility infielder. The rest of his were basically career minor leaguers. David Freese’s had an interesting PECOTA comp with Jeff Cirillo, a 3B who didn’t hit for a ton of power, but hit for average and got on base. Cirillo’s OPS + when he was under team control as a Brewer was 107, 121, 106, 123 and 119 and was an All Star at 27. Another of Freese’s was Ron Coomer, who didn’t reach the majors until he was 28 and in a 9-year career posted a .734 OPS.

Clay Mortensen has some interesting minor leaguers in his comparables, including Jeffery Marquez, who rated #8 by BA for the Yankees, Lance Broadway, a White Sox ex-prospect whose star has faded, and Chris Ray, who was a good starter in the minors who became a fantastic closer in AA, and was concordantly fast-tracked to the big leagues. PECOTA loved Bryan Anderson last year, with some of his top comps being Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. PECOTA soured on Anderson considerably this time around. A couple of his top comps are Jason Belcher and Dioner Navarro. Navarro is a good fielding catcher who hasn’t quite put it together hitting-wise in the majors, but wasn’t a bad hitter in the minors. Belcher was a top catching prospect for the Brewers whose career fizzled out because of injuries. Like Anderson, he was picked out of high school, only a round later (5th). Belcher couldn’t cut it behind the plate for various reasons and was subsequently moved to the OF. He was last was seen as a 25 year old, putting up a .587 OPS in the independent Northern League. Yikes. After Anderson, it’s gets a little less interesting, so for sake of time I’ll stop there.

10-25 upside scores are reserved for players a fair chance at a meaningful career but are more likely to be fringe prospects. 0-10 is where marginal guys who are more likely to be career minor leaguers. There still are some interesting comps worth noting with some of the remaining players-

Allen Craig-Kevin Kouzmanoff
Adam Ottavino-Aaron Sele, Matt Clement.
Mark Hamilton-Dan Johnson
Brian Barton-Chris Denorfia. I still am not certain why PECOTA is so down on Barton.
Mitch Boggs-Zach Day…yuck.

And I wouldn’t read too much into Kozma’s score right now. He has the highest probability to improve of all the prospects.

I’ve been waiting to see this list for quite some time.  I really like the format that Goldstein uses for his prospect lists.  Well the time has come despite our alphabetically challenged city name.  It’s a subscription article so we can’t just copy and paste but you can see the list and some interesting tidbits after the jump.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Chris Perez, RHP
3. Bryan Anderson, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Ottavino, RHP
5. Jaime Garcia, LHP
6. Tyler Herron, RHP
7. Jose Martinez, SS
8. Peter Kozma, SS
9. Clayton Mortensen, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Joe Mather, OF
11. Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B

I really chuckled at the Bryan Anderson perfect world projection: the anti-yadier molina.  A catcher that’s holding down the position for their offensive prowess as opposed to their defensive prowess.

The Cardinals lack a frontline starter within the system. Ottavino and Garcia are projected as mid-rotation and Herron towards the back of the rotation.  Goldstein seems to take something of a pass on Mortensen saying that “Some like him as a starter, and some like him as a late-innings reliever.”  That seems like a real platitude to me.  “Some people like chocolate ice cream and some like vanilla.”  OK. . .that doesn’t tell us a lot about the long term projection.  It could be since Mortensen showed a disparate skill set between the Quad Cities and Batavia/college so Goldstein doesn’t have a definitive read.  It also seems that the Cardinals are internally quite high on Mortensen compared to external observers.  There’s still questions surrounding him in terms of skillset and projection but I would have liked to see a more decisive answer.

The perfect world projection for Kozma: “An average big-league shortstop who likely has to hit in the lower half of a lineup.”  I can’t help but continue to hate this draft pick.  Someday I’ll get over it.  Hopefully. . .

Martinez is listed as a shortstop but Goldstein notes his lack of range to be an everyday shortstop in the bigs.  The minor league fielding metrics bear this out to a certain extent.  Martinez was average at SS but after league translations and aging curves for fielding (fielding peaks early) he’s probably a bit below average defensively relative to the majors.  I’m simply not as sold on his offensive skillset and his ability to hit for power moving forward.  Hoffpauir gets the nod at 11 but a less than glowing report.  Erik, roarke and myself all prefer Hoffpauir to Martinez so take that for whatever it’s worth.

Truthfully, there’s not an immense amount of difference between Goldstein’s list and what we published earlier.  The primary disputes appear to be a) the value of relievers and b) the value of Walters/Boggs.  O and I’m not a Kozma fan.

Goldstein does exit with one swift kick to the groin concerning his evaluation of the Cardinals organization (farm and major league team):

It’s simple enough–-the Cardinals are a team going in the wrong direction, and to complicate matters, they don’t have much in the way of young talent. While Colby Rasmus has impact potential, one man alone can’t save the Cardinals’ future.

[cue silent weeping]

I think that’s something of an overstatement but I’m not sure to what degree.  There’s a lot of middle-level filler talent but the organization lacks impact talent. Ithe mid-tier players don’t pan out, then the organization is going to have to build a team from free agency and I think everyone realizes that’s not the ideal situation.

In case you missed it, Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law both unveiled their Top 100 prospect lists.

Goldstein’s is just a straight up list so it’s not terribly interesting.  Rasmus @ 8, Perez @ 69 and Anderson @ 71.  I’m totally baffled as to why Snider comes in @ 7 above Rasmus — that’s simply not right, imo.  I’m not a fan of Price @ 6 either but I can understand it.  Jaime Garcia isn’t in the rankings, undoubtedly because of the health concerns.  Goldstein mentions in his chat that he fell just outside the top 100.

Keith Law has actually put out several things recently (and overall, my own thinking is more in line with his than Goldstein on the top 100 but they both provide good insight).  First, we have the top 5 prospects at each position.  Only Rasmus qualifies here but as the best centerfield prospect. Then we have the top 5 prospects in each organization, which looks like this for the Cardinals:

1. Colby Rasmus, cf
2. Mitch Boggs, rhp
3. Jaime Garcia, rhp
4. Bryan Anderson, c
5. Tyler Herron, rhp

He’s really high on Boggs.  After seeing him in the AFL, Law had quite a few compliments for him.  He’s never liked Ottavino as more than a middle reliever and doesn’t think Anderson can stick behind the plate which should explain the rankings a little for you.

The best part is the top 100 lists that comes with comments on each prospect (1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100).  Law’s top 5 are Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Rasmus.  After seeing Bruce touted everywhere as the top prospect, I’m glad to see Longoria get his due.  I think Bruce, who is destined for a corner outfield position, is overrated defensively and just not as valuable as players who reside at more premium defensive positions.  Maybe I’m wrong in that but I think it’s part of the continuing trend of undervaluing defensive contributions.

Rasmus’ comment is part of the free article so you can read it in it’s entirety:

Rasmus has been very quiet in his march toward the big leagues and up prospect lists. Rasmus comes from a baseball-mad family — judging by the number of Rasmuses I’ve seen at some high school showcases, I believe he has about a bazillion brothers — and has an outstanding feel for the game. His tools all project to plus; he has very quick hands and gets his bat started early, so his plate coverage (even inside) is excellent, and he should grow into plus power, especially to pull. He’s a plus runner who gets from zero to full speed quickly, so he should be an asset on the bases capable of stealing 20-plus bags a year. His arm is plus and would be playable in right, but he’s adapting well to center field and only struggles now with balls hit over his head, something that should improve in time. Cardinal fans may have been disappointed to see Jim Edmonds go, but they’ll love his replacement.

Mitchell Boggs comes in at 73 and I’m going to resist the temptation to cut and paste as it sits behind the wall of subscription.  Law puts his fastball at 93-96 (I think that’s when he was throwing only 3 AFL innings at a time.  Boggs, by most accounts, sits in the low 90s with his fastball.) as a plus pitch and labels the breaking ball (slider, I beleive) a future plus pitch. He does note that it’s odd Boggs has struggled to put hitters away given his pure stuff which may portend his future in the pen.  Keith is much higher on Boggs than other analysts so he should be an interesting player to watch next year as he approaches the majors.

Jaime Garcia also ranks on the list at 85 with a note of concern about his elbow.  I think everyone around here shares that concern as well.

This year’s edition of the Prospect Handbook are starting to be delivered if you pre-ordered through their website. Unfortunately, I did not so I won’t be getting mine for another week or so. It’s like having to wait until the weekend to celebrate your birthday. Grumble, grumble.

The Red Baron was kind enough to share the Top 30 with us, with the addition of Barton there’s been some shuffling at the top. Here it is:

1. Colby Rasmus OF
2. Chris Perez RHP
3. Bryan Anderson C
4. Brian Barton OF
5. Jaime Garcia LHP
6. Adam Ottavino RHP
7. Pete Kozma SS
8. Clayton Mortensen RHP
9. Mitchell Boggs RHP
10. Tyler Herron RHP
11. Jon Jay OF
12. Jess Todd RHP
13. Joe Mather OF/1B
14. Kenny Maiques RHP
15. Allen Craig 3B/1B
16. P.J.Walters RHP
17. Jose Martinez SS
18. Brad Furnish LHP
19. Kyle McClellan RHP
20. Blake Hawksworth RHP
21. Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B
22. Mark Worrell RHP
23. Mike Parisi RHP
24. Jason Motte RHP
25. Mark McCormick RHP
26. Blake King RHP
27. Mark Hamilton 1B
28. Luke Gregerson RHP
29. Tyler Greene SS
30. Luis De La Cruz C

A few observations after the jump-

Higher then I would’ve guessed: I’m a little surprised to see Barton all the way at #4 and above Garcia. Most have labeled Barton as no more then a nice 4th OF, BA apparently likes him as a starter down the road. I will say I have the same hunch. I’m also pleasantly surprised to see Todd at #12. I continue to hear good things about him everywhere I turn. He is in queue for a profile that should be done hopefully by this week.

Lower then I would’ve guessed: I know Hoffpauir doesn’t have a lot of believers in the scouting community, but #21? I realize the man hasn’t hit up until this past season, but a .420 OBP in AA and a .394 OBP in AAA from the 2B position is pretty rare. I would think he would’ve rated higher then Hawksworth, McClellan and Furnish. I’m also taken back by Motte being #24. I know he’s not long on secondary stuff, but 95-98 MPH fastballs are 95-98 MPH fastballs. Mark Hamilton is a lot lower then I would’ve thought. I tend to judge him by his line in A+, as do others. BA is looking at that, and then seeing the craptacular line he put up in AA and are a lot less optimistic.

A pick of mine that didn’t crack BA’s Top 30: Tyler Norrick, D’Marcus Ingram, Cody Haerther Jon Edwards. Ingram was a narrow miss.

AZ’s picks that didn’t crack BA’s Top 30: Daryl Jones, Cody Haerther, Eddie Degerman. Jones also was a near miss.

Reader’s picks that didn’t cut it: Steve Hill, Deryk Hooker.

I’m a little perplexed that Haerther didn’t crack the the Top 30 after being there in what seems like forever now and ranking #16 last year. I still think he has his limits. I’m starting to feel sort of stupid for being as high on Norrick as I have been, but maybe he’ll reward my faith next season.

Some agreement with FR: I had Furnish at 19, BA at 18. I had Walters at 17, BA at 18. AZ had King at #25, BA #26. He also had Maiques at #13, BA #14. And of course, we all agree who’s the king of the hill.

In case you were wondering: David Freese was #28 for the Padres, the book went to print before the trade went down. #28 sounds pretty bad, but San Diego’s farm ranked #12 overall. It was followed by….

The good news:The farm system was ranked #13 overall! Next time some sportswriter tells you that there’s nothing in the farm, you can officially roll your eyes and know that they have not done their homework, and that they are going off of old info.

If anyone has the book, please let me know how they graded us on impact as well as depth and who they named the sleeper. They also always have the projected 2011 lineup, let me have it. Just ruin the whole thing for me, I don’t care.

 Sickels rolled out his Top 20 Cards today at his blog.

Here’s the list, along with his quotes:

1. Colby Rasmus, OF, Grade A
2. Chris Perez, RHP, Grade B
3. Jaime Garcia, LHP, Grade B
4. Adam Ottavino, RHP, Grade B
5. Bryan Anderson, C, Grade B-
6. Tyler Herron, RHP, Grade B-
7. Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Grade B-
8. Pete Kozma, SS, Grade B-
9. Jess Todd, RHP, Grade B-
10. Allen Craig, 3B, Grade B- (judgment call on a personal favorite)
11. P.J. Walters, RHP, Grade B- (judgment call on a personal favorite)
12. Jose Martinez, SS, Grade B- (an intriguing overlooked prospect)
13. Mitchell Boggs, RHP, Grade C+ (I know he has a good arm but he strikes me as overrated by other experts for some reason)
14. Jon Jay, OF, Grade C+ (I think he will rebound)
15. Brian Barton, OF, Grade C+
16. Joe Mather, OF, Grade C+
17. David Freese, 3B, Grade C+
18. Cody Haerther, OF, Grade C+
19. David Kopp, RHP, Grade C+
20. Steven Hill, C-INF, Grade C+

John goes on to say-

This is an underrated farm system that deserves more attention. Some of these ratings are rather different than in you will find from other sources, but I’m making some judgment calls here.

Preach it, holmes.

John warns that grades are more important then placement, so keep that in mind. He also agreed to do some Q and A with me at the site sometime, so we’ll get some reason into some of his judgments here whenever he finds some spare time from editing his book, which may be a little while. Just some off the cuff reactions-

• B- for Anderson seems a little tough to me, but I’m not sweating it.
• On the other hand, B for Ottavino seems pretty generous.
• Earlier this week we heard from Bryan Smith and he was very high on Todd. Now we’re seeing the same from Sickels. Interesting.
• He likes some of our darlings-Craig, Martinez, Walters- in spite of what some others may say.
• David Kopp? Steve Hill? I know John has personally seen Hill, so maybe he knows something. I like his bat, but I still am rather skeptical of him for some reason. I’ve heard good things about Kopp’s mechanics and am interested in seeing how he does in A ball this year.
• I’m a little baffled by the snubs of Jarrett Hoffpauir, Jason Motte, Kenny Maiques and Mark Hamilton.
• 12 guys with B grade is a pretty nice improvement from last year, when they had 7 (Jay and Haerther were two of the B’s)

Discuss.

While I could argue with some of Mayo’s selections in his top 50, I won’t argue with this. No other Cards were in his top 50.

Also, please keep voting here for our #18 Cardinal prospect over the weekend.

We’ve got a couple surprises in this list but nothing too earth shattering. Don’t forget the chat at 11 a.m.

1. Colby Rasmus, of
2. Chris Perez, rhp
3. Bryan Anderson, c
4. Jaime Garcia, lhp
5. Adam Ottavino, rhp
6. Pete Kozma, ss
7. Clayton Mortensen, rhp
8. Mitchell Boggs, rhp
9. Tyler Herron, rhp
10. Jon Jay, of

Comments after the jump.

Before discussing the list itself, there’s a best tools rating that is listed at BA as well. I have to give a shout out to the criminally under-rated Jason Motte and his fastball. Chris Perez gets rated as having the best fastball but I’ll take Motte’s upper-90s with good command over Perez’s fastball any day of the week. It’s interesting that as much as everyone (including myself) acknowledges that Perez is probably the heir apparent to Jason Isringhausen, Jason Motte’s numbers project to be light years better than Perez next year.

Anyway, Colby Rasmus is the uneqivocal top prospect in the system and a top 5 prospect in the minors. Chris Perez, Bryan Anderson and Jaime Garcia are largely interchangable in numbers 2-4. Perez has control problems, Anderson’s power hasn’t developed, Garcia had an elbow injury — pick the issue you dislike the least and rank that player 2nd. Ottavino continues to draw good reviews despite a so-so statistical year.

I’m sticking to my guns on Kozma. At the draft time, he was rated as having 4 average or better tools but below average power. I didn’t like this pick at the time, he didn’t do anything significant during the season to change my mind and I’m not willing to rate him over other prospects based on his draft position. He picked up the #8 spot in erik’s list and I fully expect Kozma to be in the bottom half of Kevin Goldstein’s list so it’s really me that’s swimming upstream here. Goold says the club will probably start him at Quad Cities next year.

Clayton Mortensen, on the other hand, took me by surprise and has become quite well regarded within the system. I’m hopeful the improved command from Quad Cities sticks around next year. And here’s a bit of a bombshell. Mortensen may start as high as Double-A next year. That would really surprise me but it would certainly be an interesting development.

No real problems with Boggs and Herron’s rankings. They’re the second tier pitching prospects in the Cardinal system. Jon Jay comes in at the end of the list. He was ranked 5th in 2006 so it would be hard for him to drop off the list completely. There’s a bit of praise for his CF defense, which I had always read was inadequate. The issue with Jay that I have is that everything needs to go right. Goold says, “Scouts from other organizations focus on Jay’s lack of a standout tool more than his lack of a glaring weakness.” and that’s largely true. He doesn’t have the power that a typical corner outfielder does so he needs all of his secondary skills to pan out (playing an average CF defensewould go a long way toward improving his prospect status imo). I like Jay but he reminds me somewhat of Kozma in regards that a lot of different things need to go well since they both lack a truly elite skill in any one area.

All in all, it’s a very solid list presented by Goold. The disagreements that I have are more quibbles than true issues and the player specific reviews are all well written and eloquent. Of course, we expected nothing less from our esteemed beat writer.

Finishing up the series of looking at who BA ranked in their top 30 Cardinal prospects during before the season. Here is part one and two.

10. Daryl Jones- The Cardinals continue to preach patience with Jones, and at times he shows flashes of brilliance but the results are seriously lagging. He has just a .550 OPS thus far for the Swing and has 50 strikeouts in 201 at bats. I’ve seen him play, he does look like a scouts dream but so far he’s a statistical nightmare.

9. Josh Kinney- As you all know, he’s out with TJ surgery. And he lost his dog. He did just have his own bobblehead day at Springfield this week, so I guess that’s a good feeling.

8. Mark McCormick- Our own Rickie Vaughn is still out with a strained shoulder and is just starting a throwing program, according to Derrick Goold. If he still has his velocity, he’s valuable. Hopefully he’ll learn that ever important lesson of learning to be a “pitcher, not a thrower.” Darn cliches.

7. Adam Ottavino Ottavino has been pretty strong, striking out 25% of the batters he’s faced but the walks are still an issue, as he’s given up 29 walks in 59.2 innings. Perhaps Dan Nelson is a terrible 2nd baseman, because according to Ott’s batted ball chart at Firstinning.com, batters are hitting .333 against him on ground balls to Adam’s left. That’s not going to encourage him to throw sinkers. .333 also happens to be his opponents BABIP, no wonder he just wants to just strike guys out.

6. Bryan Anderson - He’s roughly done the same thing in Springfield that he’s did for the Swing last year. He still throws out base runners, has issues with passed balls, hits for good average but has limited power. He’s not a monster prospect, but at 20 years old he’s really doing something to be proud of is still a ways off from his ceiling. His .354 BABIP seems rather unsustainable but he hits lots of line drives and doesn’t strike out much, so his ability to hit for average is very real.

5. Jon Jay-Hurt his shoulder and re aggravated it promptly upon returning. Hit just .235/.333/.373 in 102 at bats, mostly due to a slow start in April but was starting to really heat up in May, hitting a 1.090 in 25 plate appearances. Hopefully he comes back soon, I fear he was vastly overrated based on what he did in low A last year.

4. Blake Hawksworth- Wow, he got hammered yesterday. Hawksworth has shown excellent control but his K/IP ratio dog low and is reason for alarm. His comeback last season was inspiring, but my gut feeling is he’s not a going to be much of a factor in the future. I hope I’m wrong.

3. Chris Perez- He’s striking out 38% of the batters he’s faced, pretty freakish. The strike against him is that he’s a severe fly ball pitcher and his walk rate is too high. In other words, he’s a Dave Duncan nightmare. He’s exciting, but makes things too exciting for his own good too often. Once he cuts those walks down, he’ll be major league ready. I’d like to image he’s destined for Memphis very soon.

2. Jaime Garcia- Not quite the extreme ground baller that he was in A ball, but his 56% ground ball rate at AA is still pretty good. When he gets the ball elevated, bad things happen, as he’s allowed 11 homers in 73.1 innings. There was some nail-biting after his strikeout rate dropped precipitously once being promoted to Palm Beach, but that has come back with a vengeance. Unfortunately, his walk rate has doubled along with the return of the K’s. Still, he’s 20, and he’s pitching in AA and doing a fine job. There’s a lot to like here.

1. Colby Rasmus- Very streaky. He hit his 12th homer last night, hopefully that’s a good omen. .734 OPS in April, 1.138 in May, .544 for June. Also just a .695 OPS against left-handers while he has a .901 OPS verses righties. Looking at this slump he’s in, he’s really had some tough luck. His BABIP is .205 while he’s hitting line drives 22% of the time. His ground ball rate went up some, and he’s doubled his K rate, so some things are his fault, too. I wonder about why he’s suddenly striking out so much, I hope it’s not because he’s been solved. Alright, enough hand-wringing, he’ll be fine. I don’t believe in jinxes, so I have no issues saying he was born to be a major leaguer, and at 20 years old he’s done some impressive things upon being promoted aggressively. Hopefully he can start catching some breaks and start waiting for hit pitch rather then hacking away.

Since we’re at the half-way point, here’s my own personal half time Top 30, without comments, just for fun.

1. Rasmus
2. Garcia
3. Anderson
4. Perez
5. Ottavino
6. Hawksworth
7. Herron
8. Mather
9. Ankiel
10. Hamilton
11. Shaun Garceau
12. Degerman
13. Tyler Greene
14. Stavinoha
15. Jones
16. Jay
17. McCormick
18. Buckman
19. Maiques
20. Jon Edwards
21. Craig
22. Pham
23. Walters
24. Boggs
25. Norrick
26. Marti
27. Furnish
28. Motte
29. Daniels
30. Worrell

I’m sure I’m overlooking someone here, just going off the top of my head late at night here.

DanUp from GUB recently ranked his top 10 prospects 2 months into the season and finished with the open ended question ” who’s your top ten?”. Well that’s a darn fine question, one I’ll just answer here.

1. Colby Rasmus- Who else? His .291 isolated power leads the Texas League.
2. Jaime Garcia- The return of his K’s certainly is nice, but the jump in his walks and HR rate is alarming. He’s still just 20, and pitching in the Texas League, particularly at Hammons, can make for inflated numbers.
3. Bryan Anderson- He’s thrown out 45% of would be base stealers, but the passed balls are still a problem. If he could start to reverse his gb/fb rates, the much hoped for power will come. Hits the ball to all fields.
4. Chris Perez- Maybe I’m higher on Perez then I should be. But he’s striking out 16 batters per nine innings!!!! He cut his walks down a bit this month, but he still needs to show better control then he has. I have enough knowledge of leverage to be dangerous, and perhaps I’m dangerously overvaluing Perez. Eh, whatever.
5. Adam Ottavino- Despite not taking well to throwing the 2 seamer, 51% of his balls are grounders. He’s striking out nearly 11 batters per 9 and has cut his walks down in the month of May. He’s also starting to master lefties. I’d like to see him face AA talent and see what happens. Fears of him possibly being another Lambert should be quelled there, or at least my hunch says they will.
6. Blake Hawksworth- As Dan noted, his K rate is not particularly indicative of success, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground and demonstrating good control. I still like him, but my gut feelings about the Hawk are not so good.
7. Tyler Herron- A supplemental first round pick out of high school, Herron was a 2 way player who looked like he should’ve stayed at shortstop his first season, as he got his head kicked in in the Appy League. He showed improvement last season, but this season he’s taken a big leap forward. With a good sinker and a plus curve at his disposal, he’s keeping the ball on the ground with extreme prejudice while still missing his fair share of bats. He’s also keeping down the free passes and has only allowed 1 HR all season. I’m jumping on his bandwagon in a major way, at least for now.
8. Shaun Garceau- Surprise! I really like this guy. When I saw him he sported a sizzling 94 mph fastball and a nice change that had batters way out in front. He’s striking out nearly 11 per 9 while a decent level of command. His .271 batting average against doesn’t seem like much, but his .374 BABIP speaks of really craptastic luck. He’s just 19.
9. Rick Ankiel- I love the raw power but the walk to strikeout ratio leaves much to be desired. I still have hopes he’ll adapt.
10. Marck Stavinohamilton- Neither have lit the world on fire, but both have rebounded from rough starts. When you look at their production relative to their parks, it’s not half bad.

The more I try to do rankings, the less fond of doing them. The first 5 or so were easy, after that there’s a million different directions I could go. I have my pet prospects and there should be others that probably belong on this list despite poor starts for whatever reasons…IE, Tyler Greene, Jon Jay, etc. You could also make a case for some of the hot starters like Joe Mather, Brandon Buckman or Eddie Degerman.

In light of recent developments which I’ll discuss in a bit, here’s my latest “Top 10″, take it for what it’s worth:

1. Colby Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Chris Perez
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Blake Hawksworth
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Jon Jay
8. Tyler Greene
9. Dennis Dove
10. Cody Haerther

Rasmus and Garcia are still on top, Chris Perez soars up to #3. Reason being is the early word is he’s hitting 95 on the gun already in camp, and I read a very nice review from Carlos Gomez at BTF, who’s opinion I respect.

I’m higher on Bryan Anderson now then I was before due to his high UPSIDE scores and some good comps, though I’m worried about him contracting “young catcher stagnation syndrome” at some point.

Jon Jay goes to #7, but I still like him like him quite a bit. He’s in the Memphis camp right now, which shows me the Cardinals are quite serious about promoting him aggressively. We’ll see how he fares against stiffer competition. In case you missed it, Jeff Albert broke down his swing at VEB.

Dove shoots way up after making a very favorable impression in camp thus far, flashing a 97 mph 2 seamer. That begs me to ask- how fast he could throw a 4 seamer? Has he tried to throw it? I didn’t know he worked exclusively with the 2 seamer, you’d think he’d have at least a slightly higher GB% then 40% at Palm Beach. With the loss of Kinney, I’m rooting for Dove to break camp with the big club. Thus far he’s shown pretty good poise and command, and the Cardinals certainly could use a power arm in the pen.

Notably now off the list is Mark McCormick. McCormick has to undergo shoulder surgery to repair some debridement, and that ain’t good being that his main asset is his ability to throw hard. Without velocity, he’s nothing, we’ll have to see if he can rebound. Narrowly missing is Daryl Jones. I had a hard time shuffling between Jones, Hamilton and Haerther, but in the end it came down to Haerther having done more at higher levels. I guess I’m not all that high on Jones compared to others, his athletic ability gives him a high ceiling, but until he converts those tools into game usable skills I’m not super excited about him.

The Cardinals have signed 21 year old Mexican right handed reliever Fernando Salas from Saltilla of the Mexican League. Between the 2005 and 2006 season, including winter ball as a teammate of Troy Cate’s for Mazatlan, Salas has a 2.47 ERA in 97 innings. He struck out 88 and walked 41. He’ll be heading to AA.

Another former Mazatlan Deer is Hugo Castellanos, who will start the season in Memphis. Castellanos will turn 27 this season, he’s been in the Blue Jay, Devil Ray and Cub organizations at different points of his career as well the Mexican League. Castellanos has had problems with walks throughout his career, but gets lots of ground outs. Joe Strauss also mentioned the Cardinals signed Mexican teenager Angel Rivera, I wish I could say I knew more about him other then he’s headed for rookie ball.

Another Cardinals of Mexican descent quietly had one of the best seasons in the minors last year. Out of the Top 100 Prospect prospects at Baseball America, Jaime Garcia had the shared highest percentage of batters retired by K and ground out then any of the top ranked pitcher other then Phil Hughes, who he tied with 58%. Trailing those 2-Yiovani Gallardo, Adam Miller and Nick Adenhardt. That’s pretty nice company. He also had the highest percentage of all ground ball outs at 73%.

On Deck Baseball got around to ranking the Cardinal hitter and pitchers. For those of you not familiar with On Deck, they use stats and factor in age for level to rate prospects. I may not see eye to eye with some of the stats used in the system, but it’s interesting none the less. The system obviously puts a lot of value on youth, Jon Edwards and Daryl Jones were #2 and #4 ranked hitters, and Blake King came out as the #1 pitcher with Garcia following.

Matt Leach shares on Mike Sillman’s transformation into a submariner.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has his Cardinal 2007 organizational report.

You know you’ve hit it big time when you get your own bobble head give-away day. Springfield-ians, don’t miss your chance to get your free Josh Kinney bobble head!

Bad news for Mark McCormick. He’s expected to miss at least half of the season after shoulder surgery.

Ross Detwiler pitched 7 scoreless innings against Middle Tennessee State, allowing only 2 hits and walking 3. He struck out 7 and 11 of his outs came via the ground.

Here’s the list with the usual suspects, with mini-scouting reports-

1. Colby Rasmus – OF – DOB: 08/11/86 – ETA: 2009
.310/.373/.512, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 55/29 K/BB, 17 SB in 303 AB for low Single-A Quad Cities
.254/.351/.404, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 35/27 K/BB, 11 SB in 193 AB for Single-A Palm Beach

Rasmus, the 28th overall pick in the 2005 draft, is the one premier talent in the St. Louis farm system. An advanced hitter for a high school product, he’s a future .290-.300 batter in the majors with 20- to 25-homer power. There was some thought that he’d end up in right field when he was drafted, but the Cardinals are confident he’ll possess the range to stay in center field. With no real weaknesses in his game, he’s on track to replace Jim Edmonds in 2009. Maybe he’ll need to sit against tough lefties initially, but there’s little doubt he’ll be a fine everyday player in time.

• Jaime Garcia
• Adam Ottavino
• Chris Perez
• Jon Jay
• Blake Hawksworth
• Mark McCormick
• Bryan Anderson
• Tyler Greene
• Mark Hamilton.
]]> http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2007/02/03/bryan-anderson-pecota-and-upside/ Sat, 03 Feb 2007 07:39:52 +0000 erik http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2007/02/03/bryan-anderson-pecota-and-upside/

It turns out Baseball Prospectus erred on Bryan Anderson’s PECOTA projection. I thought it didn’t look right. According to BP’s new upside score, Anderson is the 3rd best catching prospect in the minors behind Chris Iannetta and Jarrod Saltypreztelsmakemethristy-achia. His #1 comp is the Braves’ Brian McCann, a very nice compliment.

Here are the rankings revised according to Pecota on what it projects what VORP a player would do right now if given a chance in the majors. I’ll add Josh Kinney in for fun, and we all know he will get his chance.

1. Jay (19.4)
2. Rasmus (19.3)
3. Jaime Garcia (15.9)
4. Bryan Anderson (11.7)
5. Haerther (11.1)
6. Tyler Greene (9.0)
7. Kinney (9.0)
8. Narveson (5.2)
9. Perez (3.2)
10. Stavinoha (2.6)

Pecota likes Anderson much more then Yadier Molina (projected VORP 2.2), probably due to the fact that Anderson has hit. Imagine that. Pecota also likes Josh Kinney a little bit more then Braden Looper (7.0). Now this new upside score BP is introducing is very interesting. I probably can’t explain it very well, so I’ll quote Nate Silver’s explanation.

Upside gives credit only for performance above league average at the player’s position, and zero credit for everything else. If a player winds up being a bench guy in the majors, or gets stuck at Double-A, or quits baseball to work in a lumber yard–none of these outcomes is desirable. On the other hand, the cost of employing a prospect is relatively low, both in terms of financial outlay and opportunity cost…Upside works around this negative value problem by giving credit for the good, while treating all different types of bad performance as having zero (but not negative) value. The version of Upside that we’re using here is the peak-adjusted variant, which measures a player’s most valuable five-year window up through and including his age 28 season (or simply his next five years of performance if he’s already age 25 or older).

…. But the intuition behind our methodology is fairly simple: we’re attempting to measure the degree and probability of above-average performance while the player is under the control of his parent club. This is the real fruit of the unforgiving labor of scouting and development: getting impact performances from players who are still cheap under the reserve clause, or in arbitration.

I hope I didn’t copy too much of the article but I wanted to get the point across. Upside in a nutshell: it evaluates a player’s potential for above-average performance while still club controlled. Here’s the ranking of players according to their respective upside scores. It’s important to remember that BP only does so many PECOTA cards, and a lot of minor leaguers are left out. These prospects are mostly the ones you’ve already seen in various rankings the last few seasons. Also, they have Daryl Jones’s Pecota incorrect, he’s listed as a 1st baseman for the Fort Wayne Wizards. edit: I’m told they have the wrong Daryl. I have an email out to the guys at BP letting them know and I’ll post where he would fit once they fix it.

Excellent Prospects
None (players with 100+ upside scores)
Very Good Prospects (players with scores 50-100)
1. Bryan Anderson (88.1)
2. Colby Rasmus (68.4)
Good Prospects (players with scores 25-50)
3. Jon Jay (47.8)
4. Jaime Garcia (40.0)
Average Prospects (10-25)
5. Tyler Greene (22.6)
6. Chris Narveson (21.4)
7. Josh Kinney (18.3)
8. Nick Stavinoha (14.7)
9. Skip Schumaker (12.4)
10. Adam Ottavino (11.6)
11. Chris Perez (10.8)
Marginal Prospects (0-10)
12. Cody Haerther (9.5)
13. Mark Hamilton (9.0)
14. Chris Lambert (8.7)
15. (T) Mark McCormick (8.4)
15.(T) Blake Hawksworth (8.4)

Wow. According to upside scores, Anderson is the most valuable player in the system. Pecota doesn’t seem to be as big of a fan of Rasmus as the rest of the crowd, but that’s not to say it didn’t like him, it still rates him as very good. I don’t know what all factors have came into play here to create such a variance between him and Anderson. No doubt Colby is the system’s top talent, but I’ll gladly take the fact that stats and scouts both really like Anderson. One of Jay’s top comps is Milton Bradley, and I’m thinking that’s about right. Jay’s projected to hit for better average over the next 5 seasons, but in terms of runs I could see them being pretty similar. One of Garcia’s better comps is Zach Duke, I’ll gladly take that as well.

I’d personally rate Ottavino and Perez above average, and I certainly would not put Greene, Haerther, McCormick or Hawksworth in the fringe category. Hawksworth was probably hurt by injury histories, but that didn’t stop Narveson from being ranked quite higher, so I’m not sure what is up there. I’d drop Schumaker in the fringe group and call it a decent ranking.

Here again is Kevin Goldstein’s rankings, he takes more of a mixed approach of stats and scouting, with more of an emphasis on the latter then the former.

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus
Good Prospects
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Adam Ottavino
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Daryl Jones
Average Prospects
6. Chris Perez
7. Blake Hawksworth
8. Mark McCormick
9. Cody Haerther
10. Tyler Greene

The stat method and the scout method certainly have their variances, but overall they come to pretty similar conclusions. You don’t have to be an expert to know that Ottavino, Perez and Hamilton are better then Schumaker and Narveson. I’m sure that they really didn’t get a fair shake from Pecota on their true worthiness due to small sample sizes. While scouts love McCormick’s stuff, his poor control hurts his upside score and drops him lower in the rankings then Goldstein’s. Perhaps that is for the best. You can look at both lists, use your brain a little and come to a pretty sound conclusion on where these players belong.

]]> http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2007/01/18/prospects-ranked-by-projected-vorp/ Fri, 19 Jan 2007 03:51:20 +0000 erik http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2007/01/18/prospects-ranked-by-projected-vorp/
1.  Jon Jay
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Cody Haerther
5. Tyler Greene
6. Chris Narveson
7. Nick Stavinoha
8. Chris Perez

These are not necessarily how these prospects would rank in the organization, this is just how PECOTA judges their recent work to project how well the player would fare in the majors.

• Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus were separated by only one tenth of a point, though I’m sure we all agree that Rasmus has the higher ceiling. It’s pretty exciting that projects so well already. One of Rasmus’s top comps is the oft-rumored to be traded Lastings Milledge of the Mets’ system. Jay’s projected VORP was higher than any left fielder without major league experience. PECOTA thinks he could nearly hit .300 in the majors next year.
• Jaime Garcia’s projected VORP is higher then any other Cardinal starter not named Carpenter, Wainwright and Reyes (and Jeff Weaver, should he resign.) PECOTA believes Garcia would be a more valuable starter then Mark Mulder and Kip Wells by a full win above replacement.
• Cody Haerther’s VORP is about the same as Juan Encarnacion’s and higher then Preston Wilson’s.
• Despite his hacky-ness, Tyler Greene isn’t a full win less then Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein. That bodes well for his future, however one of his top comps was John Nelson, the soon to be 28 year old and two true outcome SS for Memphis, also a recent September call up.
• The rest: Narveson, Stavinoha and Perez are closer to replacement level.  Chris Perez is on the fast track and should be promoted aggressively. As a reliever, he doesn’t need to learn 2 or 3 new pitches like a starter, he just needs to get a little more experience. I expect Stavinoha to improve after being slowed by an ankle injury last season. Narveson is probably as big league ready as he’ll ever be. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he’ll be exposed to waivers. Considering he’s a long shot to make the rotation and  the Nats are desperate for pitching, why not flip Narvie for Church straight up? It’s not like they are going to suddenly like Ryan Church. I’d hate to lose him for nothing.

Also of note- Tagg Bozied, who was signed as a minor league free agent and is the owner of the best name ever is very close to Haerther’s projected VORP. Top prospects Bryan Anderson and Daryl Jones were forecasted way below replacement level, they are still pretty far from reaching their ceilings. Hawksworth, Lambert, Ottavino and McCormick were all forecasted to be below replacement level. Ex-Cardinal prospect Daric Barton’s projection wasn’t all that hot. I can’t say the same for Dan Haren.

]]> http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/sickels-on-the-cards-prospects/ Tue, 26 Dec 2006 02:21:34 +0000 erik http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/sickels-on-the-cards-prospects/

John Sickels has his 2007 rankings for the Cardinal prospects, here’s his top 10, complete with grades and comments:

• Colby Rasmus, OF, Grade B+ (solid all around tools and skills)
• Jaime Garcia, LHP, B (came out of nowhere last year)
• Jon Jay, OF, B (I really like him and I think he is underrated)
• Adam Ottavino, RHP, B (needs to improve control)
• Bryan Anderson, C, B-  (good bat and defense has improved)
• Chris Perez, RHP, B-  (fireballing reliever should move fast)
• Cody Haerther, OF, B-  (interesting bat but needs more power)
• Blake Hawksworth, RHP, C+ (seems to have overcome shoulder trouble but doesn’t throw as hard)
• Tyler Greene, SS, C+  (imagine Rob Deer, with speed, playing shortstop with a good glove)
• Mark McCormick, RHP, C+ (throws hard, bad command)

See the full listing here.

I’m still working on my rankings, but at first glance I have no major disagreements. While I agree with Sickels that Jon Jay is underrated, I wouldn’t put him that high. People grumble about his lack of power, but he’s just 21, and he’s listed at 200 lbs, so it’s not impossible to believe he can develop it.

The Rob Deer comp for Greene seems about right, which is why I’m wondering why he ended up ranking so high.

]]> http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2006/12/21/baseball-prospectus-top-10-cardinal-prospects/ Thu, 21 Dec 2006 23:46:57 +0000 erik http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/2006/12/21/baseball-prospectus-top-10-cardinal-prospects/

Kevin Goldstein, author of the Future Shock column has his rankings out for the Cards prospects, without further adieu:

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, cf
Good Prospects
2. Jaime Garcia, lhp
3. Adam Ottavino, rhp
4. Bryan Anderson, c
5. Daryl Jones, of
Average Prospects
6. Chris Perez, rhp
7. Blake Hawksworth, rhp
8. Mark McCormick, rhp
9. Cody Haerther, of
10. Tyler Greene, ss

Just a heads up, I’m currently going through a pretty objective approach coming up with my own top prospect list, be on the lookout for it shortly. I’ve already completed the hitters, barring some minor tweaks.

As far as Goldstein’s list goes, I agree with his top three as far as hitters go with Rasmus, Anderson and Jones. The common denominator among all three is their youth, all three players were 19 at the start of the season, all three were in A ball, with Rasmus finishing the season in Palm Beach and the other two for the Swing.

His bottom two, Haerther and Greene I don’t see eye to eye on, especially Greene. While I won’t write him off, his 155 k’s in 491 at bats is troubling to say the least, and then there’s that thorny issue of his defense.

Unfortunately, I also agree about that no excellent prospect thing…

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