RUNNING BACKS

I think the majority of drafters out there agree that the Running Back position is the most important to your Fantasy team’s health, so that’s where we’ll start.

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Michael Turner
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Matt Forte
5. DeAngelo Williams
6. Steven Jackson
7. Ladainian Tomlinson
8. Frank Gore
9. Chris Johnson
10. Clinton Portis
11. Steve Slaton
12. Marion Barber
13. Kevin Smith
14. Brandon Jacobs
15. Brian Westbrook

With the exception of Peterson and Turner, positions 3-10 are interchangable based on the drafters preferences or hunches, so don’t think if you lost out on MJD that you’re stepping down to Forte or LT, they’re both as likely to put up huge numbers as anyone else on that list. Portis rounds out my top 10, and he’s a fitting turn from studs to question marks.  11-15 on my list all have the potential and talent to be top 5 guys, but they all have question marks. I think the biggest upside is Detroits Kevin Smith whose rookie year was impressive enough, and if the Detroit offense improves at all, could make the biggest sophomore splash. And for the record, i won’t be drafting Jacobs or Westbrook for the simple fact that there’s better options with less concerns.

WIDE RECIEVERS

1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Randy Moss
5. Roddy White
6. Reggie Wayne
7. Steve Smith
8. Anquan Boldin
9. Greg Jennings
10. Marques Colston
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Terrell Owens
13. Wes Welker
14. TJ Houshmanzadeh
15. Chad Ochocinco

You may not agree with this list at all; that’s fine. WR is quite deep this year, and if you’re taking RB’s in the first two rounds, you won’t get the top three or four on this list anyways.  If you’re NOT taking a RB in the second round, feel free to draft whomever you want.  A case can be made that Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson should be the #1 on this list, but I feel that with an aging QB, and with a healthy Anquan Boldin (not to mention Steve Breaston eating into the reps), his numbers won’t be as consistent as they were when Boldin went down last year. Calvin Johnson, despite having incredible physical skills and size, has a lot to prove before I rank him ahead of Andre Johnson.  That being said, I won’t be upset with any of the three. The next tier of WR’s falls off just slightly, with Moss, Wayne, White and Smith all the undisputed #1′s on their teams and a history of consistency. Keep an eye on Chris Henry this year, I think he may end up with better numbers than his teammate and #15 Chad Ochocinco.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Aaron Rogers
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Schaub
10. Matt Ryan
11. Jay Cutler
12. Matt Hasselback
13. Ben Rothlesburger
14. Eli Manning
15. Matt Cassel

My opinions on some of these guys seem to differ from the rest of the Fantasy world, and that’s ok.  I think Donovan McNabb is poised to have a big season, which is in part because of the big play ability of DeSean Jackson.  They’ll be throwing a lot, so expect him to start fast. Two possible sleepers you can probably get in the later rounds are Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton.  Everybody knows Campbell has great athletic ability, but it’s never translated into consistency, and this could be the year he finally puts up relevant numbers.  Orton never had anything to work with in Chicago, and now there are questions surrounding a terrible start to the preseason, but have some patience.

TIGHT ENDS

1. Jason Witten
2. Antonio Gates
3. Tony Gonzalez
4. Dallas Clark
5. Chris Cooley
6. Greg Olsen
7. Kellen Winslow
8. Owen Daniels
9. Zach Miller
10. Vinsanthe Shiancoe

The rule of thumb with Tight Ends is to generally avoid reaching for one.  The Tight End pool is really deep, as always, and it’s in part because other than the big three (or four if you think Clark will pick up a good portion of Harrison’s looks) you’re not going to get consistent week to week performances.  Last year, for a three week span, Bo Scaif was the best fantasy TE in the league, but I wouldn’t tell you to go out and draft him any time soon.  If you’re a shrude fantasy owner, you can probably snag a guy like Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels a full 3 or 4 rounds later than Gates or Witten, which will net you at least one more impact WR or RB than the guy who wasted a pick on a TE.

I won’t waste any time ranking Kickers or Defenses, because lets face it, they aren’t going to win you any fantasy championships. You should be waiting until the last 3 rounds (preferably two) to be snagging either, so at that point, you should have a solid team and good depth on the bench.  Now, to finish up, I’ll say the words you’ve probably heard a million times.  These rankings are biased, and are based on nothing more than my personal beliefs. I’d use these, and others out there, to form your own rankings, and draft based on that.  Reaching in a draft isn’t a bad thing, if you’re the 4th overall pick, grab the guy you want, because you know he won’t be there when it comes back around to you.

Happy Drafting!

One thing you should know about this blog is that our rankings and posts reflect our individual thoughts about players, not a collaborative process.  Though I agreed with a lot of what WT said in the first part of his quarterback rankings column, I figured I’d throw in my two cents and maybe spark a little debate.

Here are my top QBs:

Tier One:

1. Tom Brady

2. Drew Brees

I agree with WT that Brady and Brees are one-two.  Brees is probably a safer choice simply because of Tom’s knee injury considerations.   While Brady seems healthy, we won’t really know if he’ll be limited until he’s played a couple full games against first-string NFL defenses.  Still, I would take the risk.  I think the Patriots will be the best team in the NFL this year, and Bill Belichick knows that their passing game can be totally unstoppable.  Remember two years ago when the Pats ran through the regular season with ease?  Their success was the result of more than just Moss and Brady: it was a mentality of total domination.  They played like they had something to prove.  This year, they do have something to prove, and I think that mentality will be back.  The Pats will try to demoralize their opponents with the passing game, and picking Brees over Brady is just too scary when you consider the prospect of Brady casually tossing 35 or 40 TDs.  If you’re thinking of taking Brees, just think how miserable you’ll be in week one when the Pats, knowing the nation is watching on Monday Night Football against the Bills, put up 40-plus points and Brady has three TDs in the first half.  Horrifying.  If fact, I’m already starting to regret my decision to pass on him in the early rounds of our 8-team draft.  At the time, he had yet to see any preseason action, but if we were picking today, I doubt he’d slip past 15 overall…, which brings me my next topic of discussion….

When is the right time to draft a QB?  In his QB rankings post, WT advised waiting on quarterbacks until at least round six.  That might be a little strong, especially in leagues that go deeper than ten teams (our league is an eight-teamer so round six is reasonable for us).  Still, my usual strategy is to target a QB who I think has potential for a top five season but who will slip far enough that I can grab him after I’ve chosen all of my starting WRs and RBs.  There is always a guy who finishes high among QBs that you can get in a relatively late round.  Last year, Warner and Rodgers, for example, were low-priced bargains who had great years.  Plus, there is always one awesome free agent pickup you can snag who is capable of being an every-week starter even in small leagues (Think Matt Cassel last year).  Throw in the fact that in leagues that only start one QB (like ours), you don’t really need to be deep at quarterback like you do at RB and WR.  All of this means that, as WT argued, you can get away with waiting until later rounds to fill the position…if you know what you’re doing (or get lucky).

This tactic has risks, though.  If you draft a big-name guy, you know you’re set at QB every week.  You might be weak and running back and receiver, but if you have a good draft, you can overcome that.  Honestly, I’ve both won and lost myself championships by waiting for quarterbacks.   In the seven years my league’s existed, I’ve won three titles.  My championship QBs were: a platoon of Drew Bledsoe and Aaron Brooks in 2002 (shocking, but I promise they both had big years), followed by Daunte Culpepper in 2004, and Carson Palmer in 2005, none of whom I selected any earlier than round four.  One the other hand, last year I waited until round 10 (again, keep in mind that this is an eight team league) for Ben Roethlisberger, who was coming off a 32 TD year.  I was stacked at RB and WR all season and would have at least contended, but ended up finishing second because Big Ben was awful and the other teams all had someone better to throw out there.  After starting 0-4 (picking Joseph Addai in the first round didn’t help), I ripped off a huge winning streak, in the middle of which I picked up Matt Cassel.  But it was too late.  Despite my 11-2 finish, my record just wasn’t good enough to win the league.  The year before, my strategy failed me as well.  The guy I waited for, Jake Delhomme, started off red-hot, firing eight TD passes over the first three weeks, before going down with a season-ending injury.  To make matters worse, I had taken Steve Smith in round two and his season was ruined by Delhomme’s injury too.  I ended up with no true number one WR and Eli Manning as my QB.  Devastating.  Predictably, Tom Brady single-handedly won the league for our friend Yarbs, who still hasn’t stopped talking trash about it.  The point is, if Tom Brady (or anyone) throws 40 TD passes, having him gives you a great chance to win.  Having Culpepper during his breakout year won me my league.  It was fantastic.  That’s why I actually don’t agree that taking a QB in the first few rounds is always a bad tactic.  Just because you don’t need a “big-name” guy to win, you always do need to have a consistently excellent quarterback.  You can usually grab one late, but you still need to grab one.  If you select Brady and he performs, you have a massive advantage, but only reach in the early rounds for a QB who you honestly expect to have a MONSTER year.  Anything less and it’s not worth it.

Tier 2:

3. Peyton Manning

4. Aaron Rodgers

In our draft this year, our friend Ben took Peyton Manning with his third round pick and was ridiculed roundly by most of the league. I actually didn’t mind the pick, IF Ben expects Peyton to have a giant year, which I think he does.  I have Manning as my third QB because of his consistency and his potential to win any week with a big game.  Still, I’m not totally confident that he’ll be a 35+ TD guy, which is the only way I would want to pass on the quality players Ben missed out on in the third round.  WT’s arguments against Peyton don’t make that much sense to me since he implies that having a weak running game should both hurt and help.  I think a guy like Peyton benefits from being able to confuse defenses with a balanced attack and his killer play-action fake.  Last year, the problem with the running game was mostly that the offensive line, for years one of the league’s best units, was seriously banged up.  Most analysts think it’ll be better this year with Jeff Saturday healthy, and I agree.  Also, another year of recovery from last summer’s knee surgery saga will surely help Peyton get off to a better start.  Sure, you could make the case for Rodgers over Manning , but why take Rodgers when Manning has proven he can be the best QB in the league and has never failed to put up solid numbers? By the way, I totally disagree with WT’s prediction that Rodgers will increase his rushing stats.  They seemed fluky to me at the time and still do.  I expect a running back to get those goal-line carries, and Peyton is also a QB sneak threat.

That said, I would never end up with Peyton on my team because I wouldn’t be willing to pick him high enough to get him.  I’d rather take my chances waiting for a QB and be stacked at WR and RB than be kicking myself in week six when half of my team is either injured or on bye and I’m talking myself into starting LenDale White, Earnest Graham, or Nate Burleson.  Sure, I’d have Manning, but if he didn’t have a huge game, I’d probably lose my matchup.  Again, I’m not saying you don’t need a QB, I’m just saying you can target a couple breakout candidates and grab them once the run on quarterbacks settles down. Rodgers is a guy that I would have liked to have around the time WT selected him, but I didn’t get the chance to make the pick.  After Rodgers, I just didn’t see any “sure thing” picks for the right price, so I set my sights on three potential breakout guys: Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Matt Cassel.  I ended up grabbing Schaub in round 11, Cassel in round 13, and just barely missing out on Ryan in round 12.  I also selected Ben Roethlisberger in round 15 just in case he regains his 30+ TD form of two years ago.  I will be shocked if all three of those guys have good years, but I bet at least one of them will put up top QB numbers and prove more than adequate to fill my needs at the position (I’m especially optimistic about Shaub…more on him later).  Because I waited, I was able to grab breakout candidates Kevin Smith and Anthony Gonzalez as the first RB and WR coming off my bench.

Tier 3:

5. Tony Romo

6. Philip Rivers

7. Kurt Warner

8. Matt Schaub

Basically, I ended up with Schaub because I don’t see that much of a difference between him and the other three guys in this tier.  I have Romo at five because he’s done it before and he’s got a lot to prove.  Last year, Dallas was a total mess and Romo still put up top ten QB numbers despite missing a month in the middle of the year because of a freak finger injury.  Again, I don’t see that much difference between him and the other three guys in the tier, so I wouldn’t reach for him.  However, if he fell to me after I’d secured solid running backs and receivers, I’d be pleased.  TO’s departure hurts, but the Cowboys will still throw it and I expect them to move the ball well again this year.

Rivers had great numbers last year: 4,000 yards and 34 TDs can’t be ignored.  I totally agree with WT about the red flags though.  It isn’t Rivers’ fault, but I expect the Chargers to rush for more TDs this year.  More importantly, they won’t be gunning it wildly in the second half like they did last year since their defense will be better and they’ll often be up in the second half against their weak divisional opponents.

I’m terrified of Klassy Kurt.  He could easily get hurt, and thanks to Matthew Berry, we all know that last year was the first time he’d played a full season in forever.  Equally important, Todd Haley, the reason for the Iron Kurtain’s resurgence, is in Kansas City with Matt Cassel now.  Sure, if he fell to me very late, I’d be happy to have him, but he’s at least as risky as Schaub in my mind.

Speaking of Schaub, I’m obviously high on him this year.  Here’s why: The injuries he’s sustained have been freak accidents, not a pattern of similar issues that you need to panic over.  Yes, he could get hurt, but he’s not old like Kurt, so I’m not too worried, and any QB could go down at any time.  Also, I’m confident that the Houston o-line will do a better job protecting him this year, and like WT said, he’s surrounded by ridiculous talent.  I think the Texans will move the ball extremely effectively this year, and best of all, they’ll probably have a sub-par defense that will force them into a lot of shootouts.  I certainly don’t see them abandoning the pass in the second half of too many games.  When I look for a QB, I look at his receivers, his team’s defense, and especially his yards per game stats.  I’m always wary of guys who rely on touchdowns to score fantasy points at any position, because you can rarely bank on them for consistent production.  As a general rule, I’m most confident counting on TDs from QBs who throw for a lot of yards. Last year, Shaub finished fourth in passing yards per game with 276 (over 11 fantasy points worth), behind only Brees, Warner, and Jay Cutler (whose numbers were artificially inflated because of Denver’s absurd amount of shootout games and completely decimated rushing attack).  By the way, Romo finished fifth with 265 yards per game, followed by Rodgers at 252, almost a full 25 yards behind “sleeper” Matt Schaub, whose numbers (especially TDs) I expect to increase dramatically this season.

When I discussed my pre-draft strategy with my roommates from school (my league is based back home in Oregon), I told them that I didn’t want to fall prey to the “Matt Schaub dropoff.”  After Schaub, I don’t see any really strong candidates for giant breakouts.  I felt like I needed one of the top eight guys to feel confident about my team.  Ryan is the next best, I think, but he’d need to increase his numbers a lot to be a top QB.  I’m not saying he won’t do it, but he’s just too risky to pick as a number one.  Since I’m in an eight-team league and I saw eight starting QB possibilities, I planned to wait for Schaub and be the last guy to pick a quarterback.  I knew my league-mates probably wouldn’t be rushing to take backups to go with their solid starters until the later rounds, so I was able to stock up talent at the other positions for the first two thirds of the draft.  Of course, I made sure to grab Cassel and Big Ben as insurance, but I was much happier to use late round selections on high value backup QBs than on low-level backups at WR and RB that I’ll probably end up dropping a week or two into the season.

Last thing: the one guy WT had in his top QBs post that I left out is Donavan McNabb.  People just don’t remember how bad he was for most of last year.  Sure, he shredded the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks, but beyond the NFC West, his season was weak.  So bad, in fact, that he was benched for Kevin Kolb!  I’m not quite sure what WT was thinking when he called rookie Jeremy Maclin a “legitimate threat.”  Yes, he’s fast and he could be good, but let’s see him prove something in a real game before advertising his legitimacy.  Sure, I’d like to grab Donovan as my number two guy, but let’s not get carried away.  Last season was by far his best since 2004 and it wasn’t even that great.  It certainly wasn’t consistent.  Just look over his game log.  I’d pass on him as a starter, even in a 12-team league.  There, I’d rather wait to grab a guy like Cassel, or even dig deeper for someone like Matt Hasselbeck or Kyle Orton, who could put up similar (or only slightly worse) numbers for a cheaper price.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on QB strategy and the top QBs for 2009.  Maybe I’ll post something about backups when WT posts part two of his rankings.

-RD

For you statheads, of the top 10 scorers in our league last year, 9 were QBs. Again, you DO NOT have to draft Brees or Brady to win your league. Last year, for example, the teams in our league that were first, second, and third to draft quarterbacks, finished seventh, sixth and fifth respectively. Also, avoid drafting big names. Peyton Manning goes too early every year because he’s Peyton Manning. Guess what? Manning was outscored last season by the likes of Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner.

Ideally, wait until at least round six to draft your QB. Top 3 talent will most likely still be available (because someone will inevitably draft Manning or McNabb 3 rounds too early) and you will consequently be strong at RB and WR.

Deep breath…Ok, my rant is done. Here’s my top 15 fantasy QB’s for ’09-’10.

1) Tom Brady (NE): I know Brees has been everyone’s consensus #1, but if I were forced to take a QB in the early rounds i’d be too scared to pass on Brady. His knee is healthy by all accounts, and we all know what he did in his last healthy season. Brees is great because the Saints dont run the ball, but look at the Pats. Laurence Maroney isn’t the back everyone thought he could be and adding Fred Taylor at this point in his career is just another Kevin Faulk.

Brady has the potential to single-handedly win you your league. The same pieces are there.  I’m not predicting another 50TD season, but I htink 35TD and 4,000 yards is very realistic. You know what you’re going to get out of Brees, but Brady’s ceiling is higher and that’s why I have him at #1.

2) Drew Brees (NO): We’ve seen three years of Sean Payton in New Orleans, and it’s safe to say he likes the running game about as much Brett Favre likes retirement. Drew Brees will throw the ball 40 times per game making him a very safe number two. The only downside on Brees is that at times, he’s a little pick happy, but you essentially know what he’s going to get you week in and week out: 300 + yards and at least 2TDs.

I had Brees last year and he single-handedly won me a number of weeks. If you’re going to take a QB early, make sure it’s Brady or Brees.

3) Aaron Rodgers (GB): People love to overlook Aaron Rodgers. Remember when he slipped to 25 in the ’05 draft, after he was a projected top 10 pick? Remember when he rode pine for 2 years in Green Bay and then had to be jerked around by the Brett Favre soap opera?

As a PAC-10 guy, I’ve been watching Rodgers since his Cal days and I’ve always been impressed by him. He showed his skill last year, his first full season as a starter, when he threw for over 4,000 yards and 28Tds.

For me, two things separate A-Rod from the rest of the pack. One, he’s mobile. He rushed for over 200 yds and picked up 4TDs ont he ground last season, and I’d expect the TD numbers to improve this year. Two, the packers have a poor running game. Ryan Grant was a flash in the pan. He couldn’t find the endzone last season (4Tds on 312 carries) and only had 4 games where he rushed for 100 yds. I see Rodgers as a legit goal-line option for the Pack (who doesn’t love a good ‘ol QB sneak) and the emergence of Greg Jennings as an elite receiver will pad those passing stats.

Rodgers will most likely slip in your draft. I was able to grab in round 6 as my league-mates opted for pretty names Manning and Romo in far too early rounds. If Rodgers is available that late for you, great. In my minds, he’s the clear-cut number 3 fantasy QB.

4) Kurt Warner (AZ): After Rodgers, I find serious fault with every QB left in the draft. With Warner, it’s simple: he’s 38 and thus comes with a high injury risk. Moreover, at some point this season, Ken Wisenhunt is going to make an unsuccessful commitment to the running game deflating Warner’s stats for a couple games.

BUT, once Wisenhunt realizes that Beanie Wells is a walking sprained ankle we should see more of the Warner that won managers their leagues last season. Larry Fitzgerald + Anquan Boldin + Steve Breaston = lots of yards and TDs for Kurt Warner. He comes with risk, but grab yourself some Kurt at number 4.

5) Peyton Manning (IND): The Colts had the second worst running game in the NFL last year, and as a result,Manning was average by his standards. Opposing D’s were able to key on the passing game since their was no real threat in the Indy backfield. Peyton’s 27 TDs were his lowest total since ’99-’00 and the Colts offense lacked that explosiveness that was their forte 2-3 years ago. Everyone loves Anthony Gonzalez this year, but I don’t see him giving Manning’s numbers much of a boost.

More importantly, I don’t think their running game improved that much. If Donald Brown is actually good, then I’ll choke on my words, but I refuse to believe it. He was a great college back but in the Big East where he was facing the likes of Syracuse and Rutgers. In the end, he’s a slight upgrade to Addai but he wont help Manning all that much.

Expect similar numbers as last year out of Peyton this year, and DO NOT draft him in the third round because he’s Peyton Manning. There are better options out there…

6) Phillip Rivers (SD): I would have ranked Rivers higher if all the talk out of Chargers camp wasn’t about how their committed to getting LaDainian Tomlinson more touches. Rivers was great last year, tossing 34TDs and only 11 interceptions. The Chargers are loaded with play makers (Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and an emerging Vincent Jackson) which bodes well for Phil.

Still, Norv Turner is a plague. He loses everywhere he goes and has a knack for underutilizing his most talented players (see LT). And, that’s what worrie me about Rivers this year. Norv is promising more handoffs to LT and that translates to less attempts for Rivers. If LT has injury problems then Rivers is a top 5 QB, but if he rebounds then Phil could be a bit of a disappointment.

7) Donovan McNabb (PHI): The Eagles made commitment to improve their offense via the draft, and I think the influx of young talent should rejuvenate McNabb. Jeremy Maclin is a legitimate receiving threat who will compliment sophomore DeSean Jackson nicely. LeSean McCoy could be the second coming of Brian Westbrook and oh yeah, they still have Westbook. I have no idea what to expect out of Mike Vick come week 7, but I don’t see him doing any damage to McNabb’s numbers.

As always McNabb will mix in some huge games, but the added depth on offense will limit the dud weeks. If you wait on a QB, McNabb is a nice guy to grab in the mid to late rounds.

8) Matt Schaub (HOU): Schaub is a big risk. In his two seasons as a starter he’s missed a combined 10 games to injury. Still, when he’s healthy he has a ton of weapons (Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton) and should be a more than competent fantasy QB.

If you take Schaub make sure to draft another QB shortly after. Injury is a definite possibility. That said, he’s surrounded by talent and could be a very good if healthy.

9) Tony Romo (DAL): I hate Tony Romo. I hope he sucks. There, it had to be said.

Analyze This: TO is a Bill, Roy Williams has gotten steadily worse the last 3 seasons, and Marion Barber and Felix Jones make a mean 1-2 punch in the backfield.

The good? TO’s departure could take some of the pressure of Romo and he still has Jason Witten, one of the NFL’s premier tight ends.

If you couldn’t already tell, I’d pass on Romo in ’09-’10.

10) Matt Ryan (ATL): After a promising rookie campaign, there’s no reason not to expect vast improvement out of Ryan this season. With a year of experience under his belt the Falcons should let him throw the ball a lot more (only 434 attempts last season) and he has more weapons to target. Tony Gonzalez was a huge signing not just for the Falcons overall success but also for the fantasy value of Matt Ryan. Roddy White, one of the best young receivers in the NFL will see less double coverage, and Gonzalez is still one of the premier red-zone threats in the game. 4,000 yds and 25+TDs in definitely within reach for Atlanta’s sophomore QB.

11) Carson Palmer (CIN): Carson’s a tough one. On one hand, he hasn’t really had a good season since ’06 and his injury risk is off the charts. On the other hand, The Ochocinco is reportedly in the best shape of his career (if you’ve been watching “Hardknocks” then you know what I’m talking about) and while Chris Henry is no T.J. Housh, he’s a viable number 2. I also don’t trust any ground attack that features Cedric Benson as its number one. After watching him for two years in Chicago, I’m convinced he simply doesn’t have what it takes to be an effective back in the NFL.

Moreover, the Bengals just aren’t that good. They’ll presumably be trailing by the second half of most games which means more passes for Carson. All in all, i wouldn’t want him as my number one, but I’d like to have him as a back-up. I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a top ten fantasy season, but a lot of variables have to fall into place for that to happen.

12) Jay Cutler (CHI): The story here is more about the Bear’s receiving corps and less about Jay Cutler. We’ve seen what he can do, but that was in a pass-happy offense with the likes of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Now he’s throwing the ball to Devin Hester and Earl Bennett.  He’ll still throw for decent yardage, but the Bear’s will run the ball a lot more than Denver did last year and Greg Olsen is their only legitimate red-zone threat. If you still need a QB at this point in your draft, go with someone like Carson Palmer who has the potential for a big year. I’m not saying Cutler will be a dud, it’s just that he’s not in a situation that caters to big passing numbers.

13) Matt Hasselbeck (SEA): The Seahawks have a sneaky good group of receivers. They signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh from Cinci, Nate Burleson is healthy, and they still have Deion Branch in the slot. TE John Carlson is also coming off an excellent rookie season in which he grabbed 55 passes for 627 yds and 5 TDs. The Seahawks have been a pass first team since the fizzling of Shaun Alexander’s career and for the first time in a couple years it looks like Hasselbeck will have some guys to throw to.

Remember, it was only two years ago that Hasselbeck threw for 3900 YDs and 28TDs. With an improved offense, similar numbers are within reach.

14) Matt Cassel (KC): The Chiefs just signed Ashley “Stone Hands” Lelie. Need I say more?

Dwayne Bowe has the potential to be great, but he’s all there is in KC. I like Cassel a lot. He was very impressive last year in New England but the Chiefs are bad. Very bad. Cassel has talent, but it’s the lack of talent surrounding him that will make him just an average fantasy QB in ’09′-10.

15) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): The Steelers just don’t throw the football. Smashmouth football is their forte and after a super bowl win, that’s not about to change. Roethlisberger had a freak season two years ago when he tossed 32TDs on only 404 attempts but if you look at his career stats it’s would be foolish to expect that to happen again. Other than ’07-’08 Big Ben has never thrown over 20TDs. He’s also never attempted 500 passes or thrown for over 3600 yds. The pass will always take a backseat to the run in Pittsburgh, and Big Ben will never be a fantasy stud as long as he’s there.

- WT

1. Drew Brees-Brees has been an elite QB for the past few years and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon. He’s thrown for over 4400 yards the last three season and threw over 5000 last season with 34 TDs and 17 INTs. It also should be noted that at home, Brees put up a QB rating of 115.1, throwing 23 TDs and 5 INTs. His home schedule is as follows: Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit, NY Jets, NY Giants, Atlanta, Carolina, New England, Dallas and Tampa Bay. Kind of a tough schedule, but that leaves a fair amount of easier teams on away games. Houston, Oakland, Philly, Buffalo, Miami, St. Louis, Tampa, Washington, Atlanta and Carolina. It’s not a very easy schedule, but I think Brees is good enough to be a solid fantasy contributor. Other QBs on a BYE: Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers. Luckily, you probably won’t own them if you own Brees.

2. Tom Brady-Last season, the Patriots seemed like sure fire Superbowl participants up until the first game of the season where Tom Brady was eliminated for the  with severe knee damage that required surgery. It’s been almost an entire year and Brady should be back to top form this season. By top form, I don’t mean 50 TDs, I mean 30-36 TDs. If not for the Patriots semi-rough schedule, he could be the top QB this year. Don’t be surprised if he is, I just don’t want to rank a guy coming off major surgery as the top anything. Unless it’s Albert Pujols, then I’d likely rank him top everything. Other QBs on a BYE: Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich/JoshFreeman/Some random vagrant, Jason Campbell.

3. Peyton Manning- Manning also had a bit of a down year, putting up four less TDs than his previous two seasons with a QB rating at it’s lowest since 2002. Manning lost his go to guy in Marvin Harrison but still has Reggie Wayne and the emerging Anthony Gonzalez. I expect another fairly consistent season with 4000+ yards and roughly 30 TDs from Manning. Other QBs on a BYE: Tony Romo, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill/Alex Smith.

4. Aaron Rodgers- Last year in his first full season, Rodgers went only one game without passing or rushing for a touchdown and had a QB rating of 93.8 on the season. Expect Rodgers to get more comfortable with his role as well as his receivers in 2009 and possibly put up numbers around those of the previously mentioned field generals. Other QBs on a BYE: Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, P. Rivers.

5. Kurt Warner- Kurt Warner is an old dude, but can still throw the ball and plays for a super pass happy offense. I can see Warner putting up better passing numbers than Rodgers, but being far less mobile and more injury prone. You also have to remember that the Cardinals have a former first round draft pick sitting on the bench in Matt Leinart, although Warner will have to be the guy if this team wants to make it back to the playoffs again. Other WBs on a BYE: Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb.

6. Tony Romo-Romo lost arguably the most talented receiver in the NFL in Terrell Owens. Luckily for him, Jerry Jones bought very high on another guy to take his place in Roy Williams.Even though Brandon Jacobs doesn’t agree, I think Tony Romo will be a very useful QB for the upcoming season, even with losing his star receiver. You have to remember he’s got one of the better tight ends in the NFL and apparently he favors him strongly. Maybe his ditching of Jessica Simpson will keep him a little less distracted this season. Mark Romo down for 4000+ yards and 26-30 TDs. Other QBs on a BYE: Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill/Alex Smith.

7. Phillip Rivers-P. Rivers has all the tools in the world to be a successful QB in the NFL and in his third season as a full time starter, put up 4,000 yards with a 35/15 turnover ratio. If you were to ask me what I expect of Rivers (Although you shouldn’t because I will tell you anyways)  I would say he can get near 4,000 yards, but I’m not counting on another 35 TDs. Should LT remain healthy, he will take away the need to pas the ball as often and add another threat to the field. Other QBs on a BYE: Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees.

8. Donovan McNabb-McNabb has always been one of those dudes that when healthy, can provide you with top five talent. The problem with that is that he’s not always healthy. Last year, McNabb was healthy and provided just mediocre stats. He had a QB rating of 86.4, threw for 3916 yards and had a TD/turnover ratio of 25/16. Now that I think about it, McNabb’s always been about this good but he does have some pretty huge games once in a blue moon. I surely wouldn’t be excited owning him, but I wouldn’t be disappointed. Other QBs on a BYE: Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme.

9. Jay Cutler- Cutler has always played in a run first offense in the NFL, except that offense couldn’t really run. He had decent receivers in 2008 in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall and now that he’s moved to Chicago, he’s got the man that can really only return kicks in Devin Hester. Luckily, Cutler’s got up and coming tight end Greg Olsen(don’t be surprised if he’s the team’s leading receiver.) You can safely expect Cutler to throw for around 3,800 yards and 25-29 TDs. Cutler also has upside in his mobility and if he can’t find a receiver open, you know he’s going to move. Other QBs on a BYE: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, P. Rivers.

10. Matt Ryan-Atlanta was a run first team last year with Matt Ryan learning and Michael Turner burning (clever, eh?) They went and added a large endzone target in Tony Gonzalez as well. While he only threw for over 300 yards twice last season, he remained fairly decent (considering he was a rookie with no NFL experience) controlling his INTs. If you’re in keeper or dynasty leagues, I think Ryan moves up a ways. But for this season, I’m still not feeling confident enough to rank him above Jay Cutler’s upside and McNabb’s NFL experience. Other QBs on a BYE: Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb.

This is an interesting year at quarterback for fantasy owners. There are six signal-callers who I believe are capable of being the top-ranked fantasy QB at the end of the season. After that, there’s a whole lot of mediocrity. So what does that mean for draft strategy? Try to grab one of the top six. I usually wait on quarterbacks, but this year, I don’t want to take a chance with a mid-level player. If you don’t get one of the top six, you should wait and try to stack talent at running back and wide receiver.

Without further ado, the 2007 fantasy quarterback rankings:

1. Peyton Manning, Colts

Good news: He was tremendous last season, throwing for 4,397 yards, 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Manning is not a lock to be the No. 1 quarterback this year, but he’s a lock to be among the top three or four. How many other players can you say that about? He’s got great weapons on offense and has surpassed the 4,000-yard mark in seven of nine NFL seasons. Manning should be drafted in the first round. And don’t worry about a backup. He’s never missed a game.

Bad news: Manning lost left tackle Tarik Glenn to retirement. Glenn had protected Manning’s blind side, and now the Colts will likely rely on Tony Ugoh. This shouldn’t scare fantasy owners. Manning is a master at releasing the ball at the right moment and still should have plenty of time to find open receivers.

2. Carson Palmer, Bengals

Good news: He came off a serious knee injury and put up great numbers, throwing for 4,035 yards and 28 touchdowns in ’06. It wouldn’t surprise me if Palmer ended up as the No. 1 QB when all is said and done. He’s thrown 60 touchdowns over the past two seasons, has a great set of receivers and has the best mechanics of any quarterback in the league — according to Ron Jaworski. And if Jaws says it, then it’s true. No questions asked.

Bad news: Palmer was sacked 36 times last season and lost seven fumbles; Cincinnati lost guard Eric Steinbach in the offseason. No worries. The line is still ranked No. 5 by Scouts, Inc. Meanwhile, the Bengals will be without suspended wide receiver Chris Henry for half the season. Henry caught nine touchdowns in 13 games in ’06.

3. Tom Brady, Patriots

Good news: With Reche Caldwell as his biggest weapon, Brady threw for 3,529 yards and 24 touchdowns in ’06. Now the Patriots have added Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. Brady has never had more weapons and will be hungry to show he’s the best in the league after New England’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship last season. If he gets to hoist the Lombardi trophy in Arizona, he might just name his kids Randy and Donte. Who knows?

Bad news: Unlike Palmer and Manning, Brady has never thrown for more than 28 touchdowns in a season. He’s surpassed the 4,000-yard mark just once. Brady is steady and poised for a monster year, but he doesn’t have the upside of the top-two guys.

4. Donovan McNabb, Eagles

Good news: Before getting injured last year, McNabb was having a monster season, having thrown for 2,647 yards, 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 10 games. He had four 300-yard games and ran for three TDs. McNabb appears to be healthy in training camp and should be among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks, given Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense.

Bad news: McNabb’s season has ended in November in each of the past two seasons. If healthy, he’s one of the best, but injury is a big concern. Look no further than the Eagles’ decision to draft Houston QB Kevin Kolb in the second round. Also, the Eagles succeeded last year with Jeff Garcia because the offense was balanced. This could mean fewer passing opportunities for McNabb in ’07. And finally, the Eagles let Stallworth go and signed Kevin Curtis in the offseason. Time will tell if they made the right decision.

5. Drew Brees, Saints

Good news: He led the NFL with 4,418 passing yards last season and has thrown at least 24 touchdowns in three straight seasons. Not bad. Brees has good weapons in Reggie Bush (88 catches last season) and Marques Colston (1,038 yards last season). He could easily be ranked as high as No. 3 and is a great option for ’07.

Bad news: There’s not much here. Brees has never thrown 30 touchdowns, but he made up for it last year with eight 300-yard games. If Colston slumps in his sophomore season, Brees could be without a go-to receiver, but Devery Henderson had 745 yards and five TDs last year, and the Saints drafted Robert Meachem out of Tennessee.

6. Marc Bulger, Rams

Good news: He had a career year in ’06, throwing for 4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bulger has tremendous weapons in Torry Holt and Steven Jackson (90 catches last season). He also has a fat wallet after signing a six-year, $66 million deal in the offseason. Now it’s time to prove he’s worth it.

Bad news: Bulger played in all 16 games for the first time in his career last season. Before ’06, he was a threat to turn the ball over too much. In ’05, Bulger was intercepted nine times in eight games, and in ’04, he was picked off 14 times in 14 games. As long as those woes don’t return, he’ll be among the elite fantasy quarterbacks.

7. Tony Romo, Cowboys

Good news: The Cowboys’ signal-caller is first in line among the mediocre options. What’s there to like about Romo? Although he lacked consistency, Romo’s overall numbers in ’06 were pretty good as he threw for 225 yards or more in nine of 10 starts and accounted for 19 touchdowns. Romo also has some nice targets in Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn.

Bad news: Can Romo recover mentally from Dallas’ playoff loss to the Seahawks where he botched the snap to end the game? That is the big question. But there are others. Romo threw 13 interceptions last season in 10 starts. Eight of those picks came in the Cowboys’ final five games. Hopefully he won’t pick up where he left off and will start anew in ’07.

8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

Good news: I’m willing to chalk up his terrible year in ’06 to injury and expect him to bounce back. Now that doesn’t mean you should expect big things. Even in his good fantasy seasons, Hasselbeck was simply a solid, safe option. He’s never thrown more than 24 touchdowns. I like his matchups within the division, and at least he’s comfortable within his offensive system. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I know.

Bad news: Hasselbeck was terrible last year even when he was healthy. He threw 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 12 games. The Seahawks lost Darrell Jackson, and if Shaun Alexander is back to his old self, he’ll get the ball in the red zone, limiting Hasselbeck’s scoring chances.

9. Jon Kitna, Lions

Good news: Don’t laugh. Only three quarterbacks had more passing yards than Kitna last year — Brees, Manning and Bulger. Kitna plays in a pass-happy offense (only Brett Favre had more attempts last season) and has legitimate weapons at wide receiver with Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and first-round pick Calvin Johnson.

Bad news: Kitna was a turnover machine last season, with 22 interceptions and nine lost fumbles. He was also sacked a league-leading 63 times. In the offseason, after predicting the Lions would win at least 10 games, Kitna joked he could throw 50 touchdown passes. If he reaches half that number, he’ll leave fantasy owners smiling.

10. Philip Rivers, Chargers

Good news: Rivers was solid in his first year as a starter, tossing 22 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions. Troy Aikman credited much of his development to new Chargers coach and former Cowboys coordinator Norv Turner. If Turner can work his magic with Rivers, fantasy owners can expect big things.

Bad news: Rivers didn’t throw a touchdown pass to either one of San Diego’s starting wide receivers last year. That’s pretty remarkable. This year, the Chargers will rely on Vincent Jackson to be their No. 1 receiver. Not exactly Marvin Harrison. That being said, Rivers has an all-world tight end in Antonio Gates and a great pass-catching back in LaDainian Tomlinson.

11. Vince Young, Titans

Good news: All Young has done so far in the NFL is win football games. He led the Titans to victories in six of their last seven games in ’06 and an impressive 8-8 overall record. His legs were a serious weapon as Young rushed for 552 yards and seven touchdowns. According to RotoWorld.com, he was the second-highest scoring fantasy QB in the second half of the season.

Bad news: Young has a long way to go as a passer, and Tennessee did nothing to get him help on the offensive side of the ball. He completed less than 52 percent of his passes and threw 12 touchdowns last season while being picked off 13 times. I’m not sure that ratio will get much better in ’07 as Tennessee boasts one of the league’s least-talented receiving corps.

12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Good news: Roethlisberger had a rough go last year after an offseason motorcycle accident followed by an appendectomy. He still put up good yardage numbers — 3,513 total and over 234 per game. Now Roethlisberger will work with a new coaching staff in an effort to rebound from ’06.

Bad news: Roethlisberger was picked off 23 times last season, an alarming number. His high-yardage games last year came when Pittsburgh was playing from behind. The Steelers will still emphasize the run and are at their best when the ground game is clicking. Remember, Roethlisberger didn’t put up great fantasy numbers when the Steelers were winning games a couple years ago.

13. Eli Manning, Giants

Good news: If you look at his overall numbers, Manning’s been OK over the past two seasons. In ’06, he threw 24 touchdowns for the second straight year and showed flashes of brilliance early in the season (371 yards, three TDs in Week 2 against the Eagles). Giants fans are relying on new offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride to help the offense, which will be without Tiki Barber.

Bad news: Manning was horrendous at the end of last season. In New York’s final two regular season games, he went 21-for-51 for 175 yards. He’s been picked off 35 times in the last two seasons and has been one of the league’s most inconsistent signal-callers. The pressure will be on without Barber. Manning is a high-risk, high-reward pick.

14. Brett Favre, Packers

Good news: Even when Favre struggles, he’s a yardage machine. He threw for more than 3,800 yards for the third straight season in ’06 and had a league-high 613 attempts. He’s as durable as they get, and Favre should have a decent crop of receivers if they can stay healthy.

Bad news: He had a career-low 18 TD passes in ’06 to go along with 18 interceptions. Favre also set career-lows with a 56 percent completion percentage and an average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Favre can’t be counted on as an every-week starter but can have value when paired with another middle-tier quarterback.

15. Matt Leinart, Cardinals

Good news: He’s got one of the league’s best pair of receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Leinart put up solid numbers after taking over the starting job last season, and the Cardinals brought in a new coach in Ken Whisenhunt and a new offensive tackle in first-round pick Levi Brown.

Bad news: Leinart was picked off 12 times in 12 starts last season. Also, Whisenhunt comes from Pittsburgh where running the football was the main priority. Can the offensive line protect Leinart? And will Whisenhunt be comfortable taking chances in the passing game? Those are the questions fantasy owners need to answer when deciding on the Cardinals QB.

16. Jay Cutler, Broncos

Good news: He flashed serious potential in ’06, averaging over 200 yards per game and tossing nine touchdowns in five starts. Cutler is the unquestioned starter this season and has a big-play target in Javon Walker. He’s a great sleeper option.

Bad news: He only has five starts under his belt, less than other second-year quarterbacks Leinart and Young. Other than Walker, Cutler will be relying on 37 year old Rod Smith and unproven 23 year old Brandon Marshall.

17. J.P. Losman, Bills

Good news: He tossed 12 touchdowns over the final seven weeks last season and has a major weapon at wide receiver in Lee Evans.

Bad news: Losman was sacked 47 times in ’06. He had 14 interceptions and lost seven fumbles. If Buffalo’s offensive line upgrades work out, Losman has upside. Otherwise, he’ll be a disaster. The Bills’ difficult schedule could make life rough for Losman.

18. Jake Delhomme, Panthers

Good news: He struggled last year, but Delhomme had a combined 53 TDs in ’04 and ’05. He also has one of the league’s most explosive wide receivers at his disposal in Steve Smith.

Bad news: Delhomme was bad last season, throwing 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 13 games. He now has newly acquired David Carr breathing down his neck. If that fires him up, maybe Delhomme can return to being a productive fantasy QB. On the flip side, a poor start could put him on the bench.

19. Rex Grossman, Bears

Good news: In his five best games last year, Grossman tossed 14 touchdowns and just one interception. To say he was inconsistent would be putting it kindly. Still, Grossman has a solid offensive line, and you could do worse in terms of weapons at wide receiver and tight end.

Bad news: In his five worst games last year, Grossman had one touchdown and 16 interceptions. Simply mind-boggling. He can’t be trusted to be a fantasy starter and probably isn’t worth the risk as a late-round pick.

20. Alex Smith, 49ers

Good news: He made tremendous strides in his second season, accounting for 18 touchdowns, including two on the ground. The addition of Darrell Jackson in the offseason and a healthy Vernon Davis should help Smith take another step forward in ’07.

Bad news: Smith turned the ball over 21 times and topped 200 yards just once in the season’s final 10 weeks. He’s still a work-in-progress at 23 years old.

And the rest…

21. Steve McNair, Ravens

22. Chad Pennington, Jets

23. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars

24. Trent Green, Dolphins

25. Matt Schaub, Texans

26. Jason Campbell, Redskins

27. Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers