FDI inflow India Last year Touched 80 Thousand crores

The FII investment of Rs 80,500 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore.

FII inflow so far this year has broken the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007.

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Market analysts believe that the FII inflow in India may continue in the next year as well, if the liquidity conditions remain strong.

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As per Market experts, FIIs are expected to continue to be positive on domestic markets and in general Indian markets seems to fare well in 2010.

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Delhi-based SMC Capitals Ltd’s Equity Head Jagannadham Thunuguntla has supported the view, saying,

“If liquidity conditions remain strong next year, one can expect FII inflow to remain strong into India even in 2010 as well.”

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The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark sensex, comprising 30 bluechip stocks, has gained more than 70% so far in 2009, one of the best performers among leading global bourses.

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“However, if dollar-carrytrade-unwinding starts, then one can expect rush of FII outflow from the country, resulting in pressure on Indian markets,” he cautioned.

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Significantly, last year the FIIs had pulled out a net Rs 52,900 crore from the domestic bourses — a trend triggered with the collapse of global financial services icon Lehman Brothers in the middle of September 2008.

This selling trend continued till the first two months of the passing year.

SMC Market Outlook

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With markets giving returns on investment more than 79% in 2009 and showing a strong sign of recovery from mid 2009 on the back of strong domestic demand, policy reforms and stimulus packages, 2009 calendar year emerged as the best year for investors since 2000.

FII’s have once again proved to be the front runners in terms of the inflow, pumping more than Rs 82,000 crore in the Indian market this calendar.

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But 2010 promises to be another testing year as fiscal and monetary stimulus in many of the world’s major economies begins to wane.

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After being in consolidation for most of the month, in the week gone by the domestic markets suddenly jumped back to life and closed at their highest in 19 months as investors rushed to buy stocks on renewed optimism, after foreign direct investment into the nation jumped 60% in the first eight months of this fiscal year.

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The FM`s comments on GDP growth and encouraging cues from global markets also boosted the market.

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Both the indices, Sensex and Nifty made a new high for 2009 on the eve of Christmas, rekindling the festive spirit.

Bulls were in a mood of rejoice as Christmas took Nifty to a new high of 5,197.90.

The year ends with more than a spark of hope, and next year seems to be a stable and profitable one.

However, we believe that markets would continue to be volatile and hence it is important to manage risk in the coming year too.

For the forthcoming week, markets may remain volatile as traders will roll their positions in the derivative segment from December 2009 series to January 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near month December 2009 contracts on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

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On the flip side higher advance tax figures by India Inc which suggests better Q3 December 2009 results, may support the market.

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Corporate advance tax payments for the quarter were up 44% to Rs 48,300 crore against a 3.7% decline in April-June quarter and a 14.7% increase in July-September quarter.

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The global developments also need to be seen for any further directions.

Furthermore, food price index data for the year to 19 December 2009 will be closely watched which is going to release on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

The high food price inflation is a major worry for the policymakers as they contemplate a right approach to tame hike in inflation which seems to be more of a supply side issue.

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The next quarterly review of monetary policy is scheduled on 29 January 2010 which may also give some direction to the markets.

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On the global economic front, the US economy grew at a revised annual growth rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, much slower than initially projected.

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Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent in October, for the first time in four months in November, an indication job growth may not be strong enough to support the economy’s recovery from its deepest postwar recession.

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The world stock markets are not ready to react on the downside and after every consolidation they are moving up only.

4960 on nifty is strong support as was mentioned in last week magazine and the nifty touched there and moved up sharply.

Even the base metals and stocks are not reacting to the strong dollar.

Till the trend of stock markets is up, one should be playing from the long side of it.

Nifty has support between 5050-4970 and Sensex between 17100-16700 levels.

New Year celebration may result in thin trading this week.It may impact domestic bourses as well.

Regarding outlook, dollar index will give next direction to precious metals. If it notices a pause in its rally then precious metals may trade in a range or vice a versa.

Base metals will remain volatile.

Gap between lead and zinc should shrink gradually.

Fresh buying in steel may keep nickel at higher side.

If US crude and other inventories continue to decline then fresh buying will stimulate in crude oil.

However, it already saw spiky moves hence upside is limited.

India’s stocks rose to their highest in 19 months

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India’s stocks rose to their highest in 19 months after foreign direct investment into the nation jumped 61 percent

and the government relaxed a rule to make some state-run companies globally competitive.

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Tata Motors Ltd., soared to the highest in more than two years after foreign direct investment into the nation rose to $1.74 billion in November.

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Oil & Natural Gas Corp., the largest state-owned oil explorer, climbed the most in three weeks as the government increased the cap on the amount some state-run companies can spend to acquire assets and set up joint ventures.

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“Money always chases opportunity and now the opportunity is in India,” said

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, chief strategist at SMC Capitals Ltd. in New Delhi.

“There are not many options left for the global investor.”

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The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, gained 129.50, or 0.8 percent, to 17,360.61, the highest since May 16, 2008.

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The gauge has risen 3.8 percent this week, the most in more than a month.

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The Sensex climbed 80 percent this year, set for its best annual performance in 18 years as economic expansion accelerated and the election victory of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ruling coalition in May raised optimism he will push through reform measures to boost growth.

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The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 0.7 percent to 5,178.40.

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The BSE 200 Index increased 0.7 percent to 2,169.65.

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Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

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INDEX - The Measuring Barometer

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Topic is  INDEX – The Measuring Barometer.

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Here, we would read that what is MCX Comdex and what are the advantages of Index.

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MCX COMDEX captures diversified sectors encompassing futures contracts drawn on metals, energy and agricultural commodities that are traded on MCX.

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It is the significant barometer for the performance of commodities market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodities market over a period of time.

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The MCX COMDEX futures give users the ability to efficiently hedge commodity and inflation exposure and lay off residual risk.

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Protection can be established regardless of overall market direction.

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MCX COMDEX, India’s first composite commodity futures index was launched on June 7, 2005.

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Advantage:

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Investors who own stocks of companies having exposure to primary commodities

could use the COMDEX as a guide to hedge their risk in the commodity exchange,

thereby bringing stability to the financial markets and strengthening linkages.

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Weight age (%) of Commodities in MCX COMDEX:

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On the MCX-COMDEX, Agricultural sub-group carries 20% weighting.

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It includes ref. soy oil, potato, chana, crude palm oil, kapaskhali & mentha oil.

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Metals also carry 40% weighting and comprise gold, silver, copper, zinc, aluminium, nickel & lead.

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The energy sub-group consists of crude oil & natural gas and carries 40% weighting.

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Weight age (%) of Commodities in MCX COMDEX:

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Performance 2009:

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The chart above depicts that with the bull-run in commodities,

this index has outperformed throughout in the year 2009,

as compared to other years, where they had shown a sideways movement.

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Also Group Indices for MCX AGRI, MCX METAL & MCX ENERGY on commodity futures prices have been developed

to represent different commodity segments as traded on the exchange.

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Performance 2009

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

mid-cap and small-cap shares outperformed blue chips

2009 was a year when stock market minnows beat the big boys of Dalal Street.

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This year, mid-cap and small-cap shares outperformed blue chips, setting the momentum for 2010.

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Stocks of companies with medium and small market capitalisations shot up more significantly than the scrips with larger valuations.

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This was all happening when stock market  was witnessing a recovery across the board in the year.

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Market experts said the smaller capitalization stocks do not need huge amounts of investments to rally and so managed to outperform their peers in the benchmark index, Sensex in the year.

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According to an analysis of the performance of mid-cap and small cap indices on the Bombay Stock Exchange, the small-cap index has given a return of as much as 115 per cent, while the mid-cap index has gained nearly 100 per cent so far in 2009.

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In comparison to the performance of its smaller peers, the 30-share benchmark index, Sensex, gave a return of 75.3 per cent to investors.

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“The rally in the mid-cap and small-cap have been stronger than that of the large cap index of Sensex.

Mid-cap and small-cap indices comprise stocks require relatively smaller investment as they are available at cheap rates in the market,”

SMC Capitals Ltd Equity Head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

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The mid-cap and small cap indices track the performance of companies with market capitalisations that are a fifth or tenth of that of blue chip firms.

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Retail Investors Turn Cautious Towards IPOs

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Aggressive IPO pricing and poor post-listing performances have made retail investors extremely cautious this year.

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Of the Rs 18,407 crore collected through IPOs, the retail investor portion was subscribed 1.86 times on an average, according to a research report by SMC Capital.

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Qualified institutional buyers‘ portion was subscribed by 11.42 times and high net worth individuals’ portion by 8.49 times.

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IPOs this year were subscribed 7.64 times.

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Of the 19 IPOs, the retail portions of five issues were not even fully subscribed, while five just about managed to get subscribed.

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Many retail Investors have decided against putting money into recent IPOs after looking at the post-listing performances of stocks that were listed earlier.

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Only shares of six companies are trading above their issue prices – these include Mahindra Holidays, Oil India and Cox and Kings (India).

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A lot of investors had saved up, especially for the NHPC IPO.  But when it listed poorly these investor must have suffered hugely.

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As per the market experts , a lot of the IPOs that came out this year have been highly priced, which has made the already skeptical retail investor stay away from the primary market.

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Bunch of retail investors are looking at “short-term gains”, so they now prefer to invest their money in the secondary markets rather than in IPOs, market experts feel.

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If one goes by the DRHPs filed with SEBI, there are approximately Rs 29,000 crore worth of IPOs in the pipeline, said Mr Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Equity Head at SMC Capital.

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Qualified Institutional Placements (QIP) contrib-uted Rs 6 out of every Rs 10 raised by Indian companies from domestic sources in January-November 2009. Simply put, Indian companies raised Rs 47,419 crore from domestic sources in the 11 months of this year with QIP funds accounting for Rs 28,726 crore (about 60 per cent).

In the same 11 months of 2008, India Inc raised Rs 2,104 by means of QIPs out of the total Rs 48,807 crore garnered from domestic so-urces, shows a study by New Delhi-based SMC Capitals. This means that in 2009 QIPs account for more than half of total funds raised. Just to put the things in perspective, QIPs am-ounted for only 4.3 per cent of the funds raised during January to November 2008. This underlines the kind of domination QIPs have sho-wn in 2009; and QIPs have truly come to the rescue of cash-starved Indian corporates, said Jagannadham Thun-uguntla, Equity Head at SMC Capitals.

The funds raised thro-ugh IPOs as a percentage of total funds raised through domestic sources is to the tune of 31.7 per cent during January-November, at Rs 15,043 crore compared to that in January-November 2008, which was 34.8 per cent at Rs 16,995 crore, supported heavily by the Reliance Po-wer mega IPO of 2008. The funds mopped up from ADRs/GDRs have jumped up by more than 29 times from $0.1 billion in January to November 2008 to $ 3.15 billion in January to November 2009.

The first eight months of the current fiscal witnessed fund raising of $16.7 billion (Rs 78,000 crore) through equity issues by India Inc due to the returning of the foreign investors and resuming of expansion activities by the companies.

However, the amount raised so far in this fiscal is still far below as compared to the corresponding period of 2007-08, a year that witnessed a boom for the stock markets. India Inc had raised Rs 125,526 crore for the period between April and November 2007.

Meanwhile, the funds were raised by issuing through private placement debt instruments, including bonds, debentures and securitized papers, which have a tenor and put or call option of more than one year.

Company Insiders Sold Shares Worth Rs.15 K Crores

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Company insiders, including top management and promoters, have sold shares in their firms worth about Rs.14,950 crore in the past three months.

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This was most perhaps done to cash in on the steep rise in prices during the recent rally and signaling that the market may be fully valued.

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“Insiders are cashing out some part of their shares.

That shows the market is no longer undervalued,” says Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Capital Ltd.

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Since the Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark hit a low of 8,160 points on 9 March earlier this year,

the 30-stock Sensex, India’s most widely tracked index, has risen 103.81%

as foreign investors injected $15.42 billion (Rs 72,165 crore) into the markets, enticed by the prospect of economic growth.

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While major Western economies are barely emerging from a deep recession,

India’s economic output is expected to expand at least 6%, according to estimates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), making it the second fastest growing major economy.

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Insider sales include those by promoters, top management such as chief executive officers and chief financial officers, as well as sales of treasury stock.

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While insider trades are reported to the stock exchanges, only the number of shares is disclosed.

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Often, such sales take place over a period of time.

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SMC Capital has played a role in the compilation of the data.

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Insider transactions also include share purchases.

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On an overall basis, company insiders bought shares worth around Rs 5,194 crore during the same period, or around one-third of the Rs 14,950 crore of shares sold.

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A large part of these have happened in the last six months because people are still sceptical about the sustainability of the recovery.

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“No one has any conviction on how long this bull market will last,” said SMC’s Thunuguntla.

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Indeed, with the pace of economic recovery in the West still under question, a potential debt default by Dubai government-promoted entities rocked global markets last week,

sending the Sensex down 3.3% in just two days of trading.

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

SEA demands more curbs on oilseed futures

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SEA demands more curbs on oilseed futures:

The Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) has asked the government to raise margins and impose more curbs to prevent the misuse of futures trading in oilseed contracts.

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In a pre-budget memorandum to the finance ministry and the consumer affairs secretary (who regulates futures trade),

SEA asked, “the margin money required for oilseeds futures be enhanced to a level that will discourage pure speculative activity.”

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To curb this, oil seeds contracts should be restricted to one month, against six-monthly contracts currently, he said.

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“Existing futures contracts for the next six months should be squared off on the date of settlement of next month contract,” Sethia added.

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SEA has also said a percentage of the total traded volume by any trader be compulsorily settled by delivery so that it corresponds to prices in the physical market.

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These elements were using futures trade to build big positions and manipulate prices even at the time of harvesting, the official said.

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In Other major Commodities Update, there is news of 75 per cent of the local crushing capacity being remain unutilised even after two months of the beginning of the season.

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Three-fourth veg oil crushing capacity unutilized

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At a time when vegetable oil companies are worried over the growing dependence on imports due to stagnant domestic output,

about 75 per cent of the local crushing capacity remains unutilised even after two months of the beginning of the season.

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Generally, the Indian vegetable oil industry consisting of oil mills, solvent extraction units, vegetable oil refineries and vanaspati units commence the season during early to mid October.

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During this time, harvesting of soybean and arrivals in the mandi increase.

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Small to medium farmers commonly sell their produce to local traders (arhatiyas) who bring the seeds to mandis.

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But, big farmers are holding back their produce in anticipation of higher prices.

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Therefore, mandi arrivals in totality have declined by over 25 per cent so far this season from the normal 2.5-3 million bags during previous seasons.

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Also, crushers are not willing to take up their business due to price disparity.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Domestic Realty Companies faces Challenges Post Dubai Debt fallout

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Domestic realty companies which are planning to tap the primary markets may not see a smooth sailing as the Dubai debt crisis is likely to undermine investor confidence in the sector.

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As many as nine realty companies, including Emmar MGF, have filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator Sebi aiming to raise about Rs 15,000 crore.

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“It will not be surprising if some realty companies defer their share sale plan.

The Dubai debt crisis will not give any positive signal to investors in realty companies and IPOs of companies like Emmar MGF will face huge challenge,”

SMC Capitals‘ equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

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As per the DRHP filed with the Sebi, nine relators are planning to raise an estimated Rs 15,000 crore through the initial public offers (IPOs).

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This includes Emmar MGF’s Rs 4,000 crore issue, followed by Sahara Prime City (Rs 3,400 crore), Lodha Developers (Rs 2,700 crore), BPTP (Rs 2,000 crore), and Godrej Properties (Rs 500 crore).

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Last month, the Dubai government-owned investment company Dubai World asked for a six-month delay on repaying its $ 59 billion debts.

Dubai Debt Fallout Leaves Thousand of Indian Families Worried

The $59-billion debt woes of state-run Dubai World, one of the largest global conglomerates, has left thousands of Indian families worried, as the region accounts for half of the country’s $25-billion remittances.

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Gulf countries employ five million Indians, out of the 25 million total strength of the Indian diaspora in 130 countries, and Dubai being a key driver of the region’s economy, a shakeout there is seen unsettling the job market – and the incomes of relatives.

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Market experts have expressed that there will be at least 25-percent contraction in the job market and there may be a ripple effect on most Middle East countries because of Dubai World bust.

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They also said that Middle East meltdown is not a last month generated phenomena  rather it has been there for the past one year.

Infact, people have been coming back to India for the past one year.

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Market experts and policy makers have expressed concern over the prospect of Indians employed in the Gulf losing their jobs.

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However they insist that much would depend on Dubai world Bust’s impact on the real economy there and employment.

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Many relatives of Indian expatriates in the Gulf have expressed concern and worries over the prospect of the loss of jobs in Gulf  in the wake of Dubai World Fiasco !!

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Many of families have taken huge amount of home loans to construct houses or to buy flats.

(With the dependence of paying it through the remittances they generally receive from their relatives working in Gulf).

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Now, they have worries like if their close family member working in Gulf loses the job then it will get impossible to repay the loan amount in full.

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In Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for the largest share of remittances from the Gulf after Kerala, the realty industry feel there is an underlying worry that the Dubai World episode may just be the tip of the iceberg.

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Experts over there feel that things might go from bad to worse when the Dubai companies announce their financial results in December and January and many more could lose jobs.

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Analysts, nevertheless, maintained that while the future plans of Dubai World in India may be affected, the existing ones may not suffer much.

Just a year after the global downturn  derailed  Dubai’s explosive growth, the  city is now  so  swamped  in  debt that  it’s  asking  for a  six-month  reprieve  on  paying  its bills.

Dubai Debt Fears Grip World Markets

This has cast a shadow on a world only just emerging from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s,  knocking markets  from Sydney to Sao Paulo and raising questions about Dubai’s reputation  as a magnet for international investment.

For India, which has tens of thousands of its citizens living  and working in the emirate,  the concerns are more direct:  thousands of its expats staring at job losses and  the economy, sharply reduced trade.

India, which gets nearly a quarter of the remittances from the United Arab Emirates and  has lakhs of laborers working in the region, could be worse off than most other nations  if the crisis escalates into a full-blown one  like the Russian or Argentinean crises of the past.

India’s exports to the UAE stood at $23.92 billion in FY09.

It is very likely that we may see one more leg of job losses in Dubai.

The only consolation for the region is that Abu Dhabi is booming.

Indian shares and the rupee fell in sync with other global markets where investors are fleeing for safety after Dubai debt trap concerns.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Friday tumbled over 451.63 points to 16,403.30 points in the first ten minutes of trading on hectic selling by funds in line with weak global cues and concerns over Dubai’s debt.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty dropped by 140.50 points to 4865.05 points.

Brokers said the selling focus was more on banking and realty stocks after Dubai’s debt problems revived concerns about the global financial system and rattled markets across Europe and Asia.

Indian rupee fell 24 paisa to 46.55 against the dollar.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.4%.

Most European indices were about 2% lower after Asia tumbled.

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.6%, its biggest drop since August, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index slipped 1.1%. U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Credit-default swaps tied to debt sold by Dubai rose as much as 131 basis points to 571.

“Dubai isn’t doing risk appetite any favours at all and the markets remain in a vulnerable state of mind,” said Market analysts.

“We’re still in an environment where we’re vulnerable to financial shocks of any sort and this is one of those.”

Global Slowdown Caused Slump in Growth Rate of the Demat Accounts

Despite the blistering pace kept by the equities market in the past 10 months, the rise in the number of new retail investors has slowed down.

According to the data from National Securities and Depositories Limited, the growth rate of demat accounts has declined to 6 per cent, compared with 13 per cent last year.

Experts attribute this to the overall slowdown in the economy.

As per experts a prolonged, dull phase in 2008 made investors jittery about investing in the equities market.

Also, as many individuals were scared of losing their jobs, so they did not intend to invest more.

There has been an average growth of 14.75 per cent in investors opening demat accounts till 2008.

Financial intermediaries such as broking companies, whose fortunes are directly linked to the markets, have witnessed subdued sentiments in the equity space from retail investors.

Experts cited 2008 market crash and the global financial meltdown as the reason for this negative development.

Moreover recession of last year had demotivated and scared the retail investors good enough to drive them away from the further investing.

This caused enormous loss for Financial intermediaries and most of the brokerage houses had to shut shop and retrench many staff too.

“The confidence of the retail investors is yet to be restored. Even in the case of new initial public offerings, only the institutional part is getting oversubscribed,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Capitals.

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

'Futures trading in rice, sugar and pulses should be banned'

‘Futures trading in rice, sugar and pulses should be banned’:

A parliamentary panel today suggested that futures trading should be banned in case of wheat, rice, sugar and some pulses till the country becomes self sufficient in these food items.

The Estimates Committee asked the government to bring a new legislation to control the retail prices of essential commodities like rice,wheat, pulses, edible oils, sugar, milk and vegetables.

On futures trading, the report said: “Since food security of the country is at the stake, the Committee recommends that futures trading in wheat, rice, tur dal, urad dal and sugar should be banned till the country achieves self-sufficiency in the production of these items on a continuous basis”.

In Other major Commodities Updates we can see exports of Spice declining and on the other hand price of pulses rising up 80% in a year time.

Spice exports decline 1.3% in April-October:

Exports of spices fell 1.3 per cent in volume and 1.6 per cent in value during the April-October period of the current financial year.

According to the latest estimates of Spices Board, total exports in the period were 280,885 tonnes valued at Rs 3,031.59 crore against 284,560 tonnes valued at 3,080.25 crore in the same period last year.

Pepper exports suffered a serious setback as the figures dropped to 11,500 tonnes valued at Rs 179.16 crore as against 14,750 tonnes valued at Rs 246. 70 crore in the same period last year.

Export of chilli also declined to 100,500 tonnes valued at Rs 706.50 crore as against 121,500 tonnes valued at Rs 660.17 crore.

Coriander exports had a better performance at 25,250 tonnes valued at Rs 128.12 crore against 17,100 tonnes valued at Rs 116.80 crore.

Pulse prices rise up to 80 per cent in one year:

The government today said prices of pulses have surged by up to 80 per cent in the national capital over the last one year.

While prices of tur have gone up by 80 per cent in the last one year to Rs 90 a kg, that of moong dal surged 74 per cent to Rs 82, according to the data presented by Food and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar in a written reply to the Lok Sabha.

Even import of about 16 lakh tonnes of pulses between April and October has not eased pressure on the prices, the data showed.

Not just pulses, prices of sugar have almost doubled to Rs 38 a kg.

Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

RIL See Retail Sector as an Major Value Creator : Ambani

Reliance Industries has identified retail sector as an important component of its five-platform roadmap for value creation.

The other value creators include conventional and renewable energy space, innovation and rural transformation, RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said.

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Reliance’s efforts would be on expanding the edifice created by Reliance Retail at the customer end and reinforcing supply chain and logistics,” the chairman said.

Ambani added that Reliance Retail would expand to new cities, markets and form strategic alliances.

This would be done through nearly 1,000 stores, while it has 900 stores across 86 cities.

The retail company has run up losses over Rs 450 crore in last fiscal.

Ambani said RIL would diversity its conventional energy space with new accumulations in three years.

RIL proposes to accelerate their campaign in the Krishna-Godavari basin,as per the chairman.

Meanwhile, the gas production levels have crossed six billion cubic metres and the D6 field is slated for plateau production by the second half of the year 2010.

Oil production from the D26 field has 2.8 million barrels with daily peak production expected by the end of the year.

With current cash balance of nearly Rs 19,420 crore, the company expects to be debt free in 21 months, Ambani said.

Even in difficult economic environment, RIL’s capital expenditure was Rs 24,713 crore ($4.9 billion).

However, the stock market was not enthused.

On the BSE, RIL stock saw a marginal drop of 0.65 per cent to close at Rs 2,133.75 per share.

“Whatever Mr Ambani has said is old. There is nothing to cheer investors.However, overall sentiment is positive.”

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head, SMC Capital, and other market analysts feels so.

Unter der Rubrik Klartext / Forum schreibt Dr. phil. Guido Wolf,  M.A., dass William Edwards Deming ursprünglich einen PDSA-Zyklus zur Entwicklung von Produkten und nicht zur Verbesserung von Prozessen erarbeitet hat:

• Plan a change or a test, aimed at improvement
• Do - Carry out the change or the test (preferably on a small scale)
• Study the results. What did we learn? What went wrong?
• Act – Adopt the change, or abandon it, or run through the cycle again

Diesen Zyklus benannte er nach seinem Lehrer Walter A. Shewhart Shewhart-Cycle.

In der Folge haben japanische Manager den PDCA-Zyklus daraus entwickelt. Wobei v.a. das Act nicht mehr so recht passt: positive Ergebnisse beim Check machen einen erneuten Durchlauf unnötig und v.a. fehlt durch das Check (statt dem ursprünglichen Study) das Lernen  wie es bei Deming noch Teil des Study war.

Der Autor schlägt daher den PDSL-Zyklus vor, der statt dem Act ein Learn vorsieht:

• Plan – die Veränderung an Produkt, Prozess, Struktur etc. sorgfältig planen
• Do - die Veränderung wie geplant durchführen
• Check – die Veränderung durch Messungen, Tests, Audits etc. prüfen
• Learn -die Prüfergebnisse auswerten die Erkenntnisse ableiten.

Soweit zu dem Artikel in Kurzform.

Im Quality Improvement Paradigm (kurz QIP), das von Victor Basili entwickelt wurde,  ist dieser Mangel schon lange behoben. Lernen ist hier Teil von Erfahrung aufbereiten, zudem ist hier vor allem das Lernen in der Organisation durch eine Experience Factory (Erfahrungsdatenbank) sytematisiert . Dieser Zyklus ist deutlich praxisnäher, weil er u.a.

• die Standortbestimmung als eigenen Schritt sieht,
• in der Planung die Bestimmung der Ziele betont – siehe dazu  Goal-Question-Metric (GQM) und
• einen zusätzlichen Mini-Zyklus in der Pilotierung enthält.

QIP bestimmt das Handeln in allen Projekten, die die Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter von Maud Schlich IT-PROJECT-SERVICE durchführen.

Beispiel für QIP im Kleinen:

• Standort bestimmen – Auswertung einer Metrik, z.B. “Fehlerrate im Abnahmetest liegt aktuell bei 35 Fehlern der Kategorie A”
• Ziele definieren – “Absenkung der Fehlerrate im Abnahmetest auf maximal 5 Fehler der Kategorie A durch Verbesserung des Systemtests”
• Prozesse, Methoden, Techniken auswählen – Schulung der Sytemtester zum Certified Tester Foundation Level, Schulung der Testmanagerin zum Certified Tester Advanced Level Test Analyst und Testmanager, Einführung von systematischen Testfallentwurfstechniken mit Hife von Coaching der Testmanagerin durch einen fachlichen Coach
• Pilotieren – Anwendung der neuen Testfallentwurfstechniken im Pilotprojekt (in mehreren Iterationsschritten)
• Ergebnisse analysieren – Prüfung, welche Testfallentwurfstechnik welche Fehler aufdeckt mit welchen Raten und in welchen Teststufen
• Erfahrungen aufbereiten – Dokumentation der Lessons Learned aus dem Piloten und Überarbeitung der Testpolitik / Qualitätspolitik

Beispiel für QIP im Großen:

• Standort bestimmen – Durch eine vollständiges Assessment
• Ziele definieren – Planung des Verbesserungsprojektes
• Prozesse, Methoden, Techniken auswählen – entsprechend der Planung des Verbesserungsprojektes
• Pilotieren – Anwendung jeweils einzelner Prozessverbesserungen in Piloten
• Ergebnisse analysieren – Prüfung der Wirksamkeit der Verbesserungen und der Eignung für alle Projektarten
• Erfahrungen aufbereiten – Umsetzung der Lessons Learned in der Prozessmodellierung und Nutzbarmachen der Erfahrungen bzgl. Durchführung von Verbesserungsprojekten für die nächsten Schritte

QIP ist also für kleine und große Vorhaben gleichermaßen gut geeignet. Auch für sehr kleine Vorhaben lässt sich QIP bestens anwenden – dann können die ersten drei Schritte evtl. auch nur in wenigen Stichpunkten beschrieben sein oder auch nur im Kopf durchgeführt werden (bei Ein-Personen-Vorhaben).

Probieren Sie es doch einmal aus und schreiben Sie einen Kommentar zu Ihren Erfahrungen.

SEBI Allows Auctions for QIBs in FPOs

Market regulator, SEBI has introduced a significant change in the way institutional bidders invest in follow-on public offers by allowing allotments through auctions.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has amended the Issue of Capital and Disclosure Requirements Regulations (ICDR) to allow pure auctions for qualified institutional investors (QIBs) in follow-on public offerings to begin with.

The method may be later extended to initial public offerings.

Under the new method, bidders will be free to bid at any price above the floor price.

At present, allotments are made at the floor price.

Retail investors, however , will be allotted shares at the floor price.

The board also decided that the issuer is free to place a cap either in terms of the number of shares or percentage to issued capital of the company so that a single bidder does not garner all the shares on offer, ensuring a wider distribution of shareholding.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Equity Head,  SMC Capitals, said this means an institutional investor can continue to bid above the floor price and the QIB allotment will be made to the highest bidder.

“The intent is to enable companies to mop up more funds. Earlier, even when there were huge subscriptions and huge demand for an issue, the company could not get more money. This becomes more relevant in the context of the recently announced divestment plans and FPOs by the government for public sector units,” he said.

Auction for QIBs is welcome as it would allow risk-taking entities and not just the promoters to be a part of the price discovery process, other analyst said.

A SEBI release issued after the board meeting also said the minimum market capitalisation required by listed firms to sell shares in follow-on offerings has been halved to Rs.5,000 crores  from Rs 10,000 crore.

Moreover, the market regulator has also made it a mandatory that all listed companies would have to furnish audited or un-audited balance sheets on a half-yearly basis within 45 days from the end of the quarter instead of the current yearly basis.

This would imply that Indian companies will be required to disclose balance sheet items.

Shareholders would be able to access the statement of assets and liabilities of the company and its solvency position on a half-yearly basis.

Shareholders would receive immense help in making informed investment decisions now and would be in better position to assess the financial health of the companies, with the implementation of this SEBI regulation of mandating frequent disclosure of the asset-liability position of companies by companies.

 

Gold buying cools off after new records

Gold demand declined as prices struck a fresh high, after a slight pick-up seen in off take in the previous session.

However, the most-traded December gold contract hit a fresh record high at 17,284 rupees per 10 grams, before trading 0.12% higher at 17,251 rupees tracking overseas leads.

Meanwhile, it is said that traders were stationed on the sidelines seeking lower prices to stock for the ongoing wedding season while the business of dealers declined by about 50% on year as high prices dented demand.

On the other hand, jewelery demand in India decreased 42% to 111.6 tonnes in Q3 to September, while total demand, which comprises jewellery and retail investment demand, fell 49% to 137.6 tonnes.

Govt Not to Impose Restrictions on Foreign Borrowings

The government ruled out limiting companies from borrowing money from overseas market stating that the rise in foreign money is not a matter of concern at present and there is no such proposal.

However, companies are permitted to raise $500 million annually under the automatic route while infrastructure firms under the approval route can remit up to $100 million for rupee expenditure and for other companies the cap on approval route remittance is set at $50 million.

Meanwhile, capital inflows reached record levels as investors borrow cheap from advanced countries and invest in high-yielding assets in developing countries while this led to speculations that government may put in place a system of auctioning ECBs.

In India, foreign inflows through foreign institutional investors (FIIs), ECBs and foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) have been on the rise, while FDI is not picking up as fast.

On the other hand, on a quarterly basis, the funds raised through ECBs and FCCBs increased by 70% in the September quarter to $4.61 billion while FIIs have put in a record over Rs 71,900 crore in the equities market.

Precious Metals are on Record Setting Spree

As gold rallied by Rs 80 per ten grams to Rs 17,095 and silver firmed up by Rs 110 per kilo to Rs 28,510 due to constant demand from stockiest on account of rising trend  in global market, both gold and silver resumed at a record high on the bullion market.

However, due to worries about future inflation and economic uncertainties,  another record high in the Asian marketgold hit , while Asian stocks bounced back as the bearish dollar kept assets in demand.

Meanwhile, spot gold increased as high as $1,143.95 per ounce in early Asia trade, settling just above $1,140 while standard gold rose by Rs 80 per ten grams to resume Rs 17,095 from the overnight closing level of Rs 17,015.

On the other hand, pure gold also firmed up to Rs 17,185 from Rs 17,105 while silver ready too hardened by Rs 110 per kilo to Rs 28,510 from Rs 28,400 previously.

Earlier due to frantic buying by jewellers in the midst of firming global trend, gold prices touched a record high of Rs 17,300 per 10 gram in the bullion market and Silver coins also set a record by adding Rs 400 to Rs 33,900 for buying and Rs 34,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Moreover yesterday silver also rose by Rs 1,000 to Rs 28,350 per kg.

Sudden Surge and the record setting spree in the precious metals can be attributed to frantic buying of gold in marriage season.

In between, gold in international markets too has climbed to a record high along with the weakening of dollar.

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

 

After 20 Years, India to Import Rice

After 20 years, India to import rice:

India, a traditional rice exporter, will import the grain for the first time in 20 years to meet a projected shortfall of the crop hit by drought and floods, government said yesterday.

The government estimates that there would be a shortfall of over 15 million tonnes in the 2009-10 Kharif (summer) season due to drought and floods in several states.

Thailand’s Foreign Trade department announced that the world’s biggest rice exporter is expected to release part of its huge stock of almost six million tonnes of rice stockpile to India, besides eight other countries, through g-to-g sales programmes.

In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that the demand-supply gap for natural rubber in the country is set widen.

Demand-supply gap for rubber stretches:

The demand-supply gap for natural rubber in the country is set widen as production is expected to fall and demand set to rise above earlier stimates.

Rubber production for April-October period was 9.4 per cent lower at 4,35,125 tonnes against 4,80,230 tonnes last year.

Consumption grewn three per cent to 5,36,100 tonnes (5,20,375 tonnes).

The production-consumption mismatch resulted in a sharp rise in imports and a corresponding fall in exports.

Imports increased 133 per cent to 1,26,472 tonnes (54,283 tonnes), while exports plunged 92 per cent to 3,859 tonnes (34,000 tonnes), sources in the Rubber Board said.

The Rubber Board has scaled down the production target for the current fiscal by 2.8 per cent to 8.40 lakh tonnes from the earlier estimates of 8.67 lakh tonnes announced in April.

The forward estimates of production has moved up 6.8 per cent to 9.31 lakh tonnes from the earlier estimate of 8.81 lakh tonnes.

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Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “Commodity Corner Series”.

Here we would touch upon the importance of Maize crop in Indian commodity market and its relevance in the context of Indian Scenario

CORN………. “The Un-discovered Legend”

Maize, also known as corn, is a cereal which is an important crop after rice and wheat.

The domestication of maize has been dated back as far back as 12,000 years ago. Today, maize is widely cultivated throughout the world, in a greater size with top producing countries like United States, China, Brazil, France, Indonesia, India and South Africa.

Indian Scenario:

Andhra Pradesh is now the largest producer contributing around 21% of annual maize production.

India ’s area harvested of maize and yield have risen by mainly on account of rising production of single cross hybrids seeds, its demand and increasing acceptability among farmers.

In India, its cultivation extends from the hot arid plains of Rajasthan and Gujarat to the wet hills of Assam and Bengal.

There are three distinct seasons for the cultivation of maize:

the main season is kharif;

next is Rabi in Peninsular India and Bihar and

in spring in northern India.

Normally, higher yields have been recorded in the rabi and spring crops.

Over 85 per cent of the maize acreage is sown under rain-fed conditions during the monsoon when over 80 per cent of the annual rainfall is received.

However, this year due to the erratic monsoon production has been affected, as a result of which maize prices have been in uptrend since the withdrawal of monsoon from the country.

During 2008-9, Indian exported 3 million tonnes of maize and 12,000 tonnes of maize seed worth of Rs 2,400 crore and Rs 2,000 crore respectively.

Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would touch upon the issues like Potential source of demand for Maize crop, Industrial Demand and PVO (Price-volume-open Interest) of MAize crops.

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RBI emphasizes more on Managing economic Recovery

The Reserve Bank of India, country’’s Central bank, has said that managing economic recovery is now its focus area and the first phase of monetary tightening will arrest inflation without hurting growth.

RBI Executive Director Deepak Mohanty was found quoting  that at present, the focus around the world and also in India has shifted from managing the crisis to managing the recovery.

He said that withdrawing soft monetary policy, which was initiated to weather the financial crisis is the key challenge.

“The key challenge relates to the exit strategy that needs to be designed, considering that the recovery is as yet fragile but there is an uptick in inflation, though largely from the supply side, which could engender inflationary expectations,” he said.

Besides this, Mohanty said that the first phase of exit has been initiated by RBI in its monetary policy review in October 2009.

That was done mainly by withdrawal of unconventional measures taken during the crisis.

RBI, in its monetary review in October has raised the requirement for banks to hold portion of the deposits in cash, gold and government securities to 25 per cent.

Moreover, it had also done away with special liquidity provision for banks to provide money to mutual funds and others.

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest News round up from Indian Economy and various industrial Sectors of the country.

NEWS ROUND UP

Economy

·India’s industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 9.1 percent in September from a year earlier. Manufacturing production rose 9.3 percent in September from a year earlier.

· The green shoots visible in the economy failed to enhance government revenue with indirect tax collections — comprising customs, excise and service tax — falling almost 22 per cent to Rs 1,26,903 crore in the April- October period this year.

It stood at Rs 1,61,954 crore in the corresponding seven months of 2008-09. The overall decline was led by a 32 per cent fall in customs revenue.

Oil & Gas

·Reliance Industries Ltd. found oil in a block in the western state of Gujarat and is assessing the commercial viability of the discovery, which may help increase domestic fuel supplies.

Five wells were drilled in the 635 square kilometer area located in the Cambay basin, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) from Ahmedabad

·Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has decided to merge its energy trading joint venture with steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal with their exploration tie-up.

Metals

·Tata Steel has approved an exchange offer for an existing $875 million of securities into foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs), in a move to reduce costs and ease repayment.  The move gives an option to extend the repayment schedule by two years.

·Hindalco Industries plans to raise about Rs 2,900 crore in the next three to four weeks.
In July, it had announced plans to raise Rs 2,400 crore through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP).

The issue could not take place due to the volatility in the stock markets.

Capital Goods

· Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) has secured a contract worth Rs 1,635 crore to build a coal-fired plant for Madhya Pradesh Power Generation Co. Ltd.

The project will be executed on turnkey basis and L&T’s scope includes design, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of balance of Plant Package (BoP) systems.

·L&T one of the failed suitors for scam-hit Satyam Computer, sold 2.32 per cent stake in the IT company (now Mahindra Satyam) for over Rs 306 crore, exactly a month after the lock-in perid on sale of its holding ended.

Refineries

· MRPL is planning to invest Rs 6,000-8,000 crore starting from early 2011.

The company is looking at raising around Rs 5,000 crore to support its expansion plan, for setting up a polypropylene plant and installing a single buoy mooring (SBM) at the Mangalore port.

FMCG

· Emami is diversifying into the cement business and will invest Rs 1,750 crore to set up production units in the next three years.

As part of the new plan, group company Emami Cement will set up a fully integrated cement plant in Chhattisgarh with an installed capacity to produce 3.1 million tonnes.

Finance

· Power Finance Corporation has decided to lend Rs 50,000 crore, over two third of its total asset base, to fund various proposed power projects in the country.

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