Washington, November 23, 2009

Driven by the first-time buyer tax credit, existing-home sales showed another big gain in October with a strong uptrend established over the past seven months, while inventories continue to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. “Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November,” he said. “With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer.”

Washington, November 23, 2009

Driven by the first-time buyer tax credit, existing-home sales showed another big gain in October with a strong uptrend established over the past seven months, while inventories continue to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. “Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November,” he said. “With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer.”

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/11/record_big

We can probably guess that the number one New Year’s Resolution in our country is to loose weight. But, what do you think the top real estate related resolutions are? What are yours?

In a recent survey conducted by Move.com, the results were quite interesting. The winner: 45.1% say starting a home improvement is their number one resolution in 2010. 17.7 percent of Americans want to take the plunge and finally become first-time home buyers. A total of 15. 7 percent of home buyers consider purchasing an investment property their top resolution. If you are in either of these last two groups, consider Lake Arrowhead CA. Our market has been more stable than the rest of the nation since we are a resort community. Also, rental properties do well in Lake Arrowhead, both for full time and vacation use.

The survey revealed an interesting discrepancy between men and women when it came to whether they are planning to save money for a new home in 2010: 37 percent of men said it will be a top priority while only 27.9 percent of women agreed. 9.1 percent overall say that their major goal for the New Year is to fix their credit so that they can buy a home.

So, if your resolutions might include a home in Lake Arrowhead, be sure to visit our Lake Arrowhead Real Estate website where you can find everything from statistics to listings neighborhood information. Or, simply call Glenn Tinturin at 909-336-6733.

Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future.”

By Region:

• Pending sales in the Northeast surged 19.9 percent to 100.2 in October and is 44.2 percent above a year ago.
• In the Midwest, the index rose 11.6 percent to 109.6 and is 36.6 percent higher than October 2008.
• Sales in the South increased 5.4 percent to an index of 115.4, which is 31.6 percent above a year ago.
• In the West, the index fell 11.2 percent to 127.7 but is 21.9 percent above October 2008.

Not Out of the Woods Yet
Yun cautioned that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December until early spring when we get another surge, but the weak job market remains a major concern and could slow the recovery process.

“Still, as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” Yun said.

Source: NAR, December 1, 2009

*Originally posted on ABC15.com*

First let’s look at the factors that will greatly impact Phoenix real estate next year:

1) National Government Intervention: The extended tax credit for contracts signed before 4/30/10, which now includes a move up buyer provision with higher income levels, will definitely have a positive effect on our market for the first 2 quarters next year.

2) Low Mortgage Interest Rates: Anything below 6% will allow for a steady market recovery.

3) Lender Owned Properties (REO’s): The percent of REO’s will continue to decline from the 65% of all closings’ peak in May of 2009, but will be replaced by Short Sales.  REO’s will account for approx 55% of all closings in 2009.  I expect the percent of REO’s sales to decrease to under 40% for 2010.

4) Short Sale Properties (SS): SS’s started 2009 at about 5 or 6% of all closings and has risen to 15% YTD.  SS’s will at least double that number for 2010.

5) New Home Construction: New home sales should increase from 2009 levels, not a lot but a start in the right direction.

So with these factors identified as having a significant impact on predictions for 2010, let’s examine where the Greater Phoenix Market is now and where it will be going in the next 12 months.

Number of Sales: We certainly won’t see the 50% increase in unit sales that we’ll end 2009 with (2008 had 60,000 closed sales-2009 will have about 90,000).  I think a 5-10% increase in sales is attainable, and that figure will be the 3^rd highest number of closings- all time for our market.

Prices: Prices get measured in a number of ways.  The most quoted measures are Median Price, Average Sales Price (ASP) and Price per square foot ($SF).  Let’s look at how these measures are stacking up for 2009.

a) The Median Price of homes sold will show a drop of 18% in 2009 to $130,000.  The flaw of this method of comparison-is that the lower priced homes, i.e. REO’s, overly influence the number.

b) The ASP should end the year at $172,000-down 17% for the year.  The weakness of the ASP measure is that it is overly impacted by high priced sales, i.e. the $3 million sale brings everyone’s ASP up.

c) The $SF should end the year at $90 a square foot, which is down 14% in the last 12 months.  This measure is the least susceptible to low and high sale price fluctuations.

All of these price measures are showing improvement for the past 6 months, which I believe will continue.  Expect the annual comparison numbers to show a year over year improvement (appreciation) by April of 2010.  The tricky part is attaching a number to that improvement.  I think 10% is reasonable, as we have already improved 10% from the bottom earlier this year.  Based on the percent of SS’s and REO’s still in the market, I wouldn’t expect any additional run up in prices.   Both the SS and REO sales prices are usually viewed as ‘rock bottom’ since the lender wants to sell not hold and has no emotional or sentimental attachment to the property.  It’s an asset not a home to a lender, and a Toxic or troubled asset at that.

Let’s discuss other characteristics of our 2010 market.  Again as we’ve experienced in 2009, we will see a ‘Tale of 2 Cities’ or markets.  Our 2009 market has seen dramatic improvement initially in the less than $250,000 price range and is gradually improving to the less than $500,000 market.  The +$600,000 price range has not completely adjusted to the impact of SS’s and REO’s (bank competition) and the prices are still coming down as the number of sales continue to lag in these price ranges.  At this time the +$600,000 market still has over a 1 year supply of active listings, which according to supply and demand 101 principles-is a buyer’s market with downward pressure on the prices.  As a contrast, the supply of active listings less than $150,000 has only a 3-month supply, which is a seller’s market and the buyers in this price range are seeing prices rise.

So let me summarize my predictions for 2010; we will see a market that performs a lot like 2009 especially the second half of 2009, in terms of number of sales and price improvements.  We will see a majority of sales still in the distress category-SS and REO, with an increasing number and percentage of normal sales (owner occupied).  Luxury properties will still have downward price pressure as too many sellers compete with lenders for too few buyers in this price range.

I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge The Cromford Report as a major source of my analysis of the market and the statistics that I referenced.  The numbers quoted are taken from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).

Jim Sexton, Designated Broker John Hall & Associates

 Source: California Association of REALTORS®

Keep up to date on current Idaho Real Estate Statistics and economic data courtesy of my Meridian Realtor blog and Hennessey Appraisals. As your Meridian Idaho Realtor I strive to provide you with the very best in Idaho Real Estate information and trends, as part of this I gather the most up to date real estate data and statistics to keep you informed and educated on this most interesting real estate market. Looking for the latest available homes in Boise or homes in Idaho ? Visit my Meridian Idaho Real Estate Website to search for homes in Boise, gain valuable Idaho Home Buyer Tips and Idaho Home Seller Tips, or contact your Meridian Realtor today to find out what I can do to help you find that perfect home, or sell your current home!

Inside you will find information on Real Estate statistics on Ada and Canyon County for the month of October 2009 as well as good basic economic info as seen here:

“ECONOMIC TRENDS
Nation & Area trends and economic data:

The Nation’s unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since June 1983, as employers cut morejobs than expected. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and government.

The Labor Department states that the economy lost a net total of 263,000 jobs last month, from a downwardly revised 201,000 in August. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 7.6 million to 15.1 million, and the unemployment rate has doubled to 9.8 percent. The unemployment rate rose from 9.7 percent in August, matching expectations.

If laid-off workers who have settled for part-time work or have given up looking for new jobs are included, the unemployment rate rose to 17 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.

More than a half-million unemployed people gave up looking for work last month. Had they continued searching, the official jobless rate would have been higher. All told, 15.1 million Americans are now out of work.
Idaho
Idaho employers remained cautious about the economy in September, but the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 8.8 percent, from 8.9 percent in August. Unemployment in September 2008 was 5.4 percent.
Idaho ranks #1 (worst state) in increase in July Unemployment rates from 2007 – 2009 at 193.3%.

The monthly Idaho Department of Labor forecast showed the number of unemployed workers falling by more than 1,200 from August to September 2009, the largest one-month decline on record.

Total unemployment slipped under 66,000 in September for the first time since June, but that is still 25,000 more than in September 2008 when the unemployment rate was 5.4 percent. Over $50 million in state and federal unemployment benefits was paid to nearly 37,000 workers during September, but unemployed workers are now exhausting all the benefit entitlements at a rate of over 100 a week. Since the year began Idaho has paid $493 million in benefits to over 67,000 people – nearly twice the amount paid in all of 2008, which was the previous record.

The slight improvement in the jobless rate resulted from over 2,500 people dropping out of the labor force, the Idaho Department of Labor said. It was only the seventh time since the mid-1970s that the labor force contracted between August and September.

Unemployment area counties Aug-09 Ada 9.2.%, Canyon 12.0%, Gem 12.0% Owyhee 3.9%, Payette 10.3%, Elmore 8.5%, Washington 9.8% Ada County is Idaho’s largest urban and regional center of government, industry, and education. Ada County is the most populous county in Idaho at 373,406 residents, over twice the size of the next largest county, Canyon. It ranks 31st
among Idaho’s 44 counties in total area, and nearly 29.1 percent of the county is federally owned. The population has been rapidly growing over the past decade adding 99,081 residents since 1997. This figures to an astounding 36.1
percent growth rate for the decade 1997 to 2007, well above the state’s growth rate of 22.0 percent over the same period.

Ada County’s low unemployment rate, outdoor lifestyle, and relatively mild climate, continue to attract an increasing and diverse number of people from around Idaho as well as from out of state.”

This great information is courtesy of Hennessey Appraisals

Read the whole report: TheHennesseyReport-Oct2009

Do you know that I can help you or your cousin in Touson, Arizona, or your friend in Rome, Italy with any Real Estate Services needed.  Avery-Hess Realtors, Inc. is part of the dynamic network of “Leading Real Estate Companies of the World”.  As such, your one phone call or e-mail to me can provide you or anyone you know with connections to over 10,000 communities worldwide.  I can offer

• comprehensive community information on over 10,000 communities worldwide
• For buyers or sellers, an introduction to pre-screened, well matched Real Estate associates worldwide
• A FREE cost of living analysis before your first trip to a new destination
• Superior International relocation assistance
• Rental and or property management assistance nationwide
• Comparative market analysis for almost any property in 33 different countries throughout the world
• Your property listing with me will reach 650 different websites in 33 countries worldwide
• Premier marketing services for luxury home listings through our network of members worldwide
• Home Warranty programs nationwide to assist in putting your residence at the top of the desirable home listings chart
• Plus I can offer you and your employer a free consultation regarding corporate relocation

Heres a new thought.  Do you have a listing right now that won’t sell?  Are you looking for a new company to list your property with.  Maybe you are not getting the service you were expecting when you signed on with the agent you are working with now.  Whether you are close by in Fredericksburg, VA, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, or London, England, call me;  E-mail me; text me; even send me a snail mail letter.  Only 24% of network moves occur in the same state.  Of those, only 10% stay in the same community.  So if you are looking to move away; far away or right next door, you need someone you can trust.  Someone who has the expertise, connections, and company strength to get you there.  That would be me and Avery Hess Realtors, Inc.   

Just thought you should know!

Kathie Abercrombie

Avery-Hess Realtors, Inc,

774 Warrenton Rd.

Fredericksburg, VA  22406

540-373-9300 (111)

540-842-8098

kathieabercromie@mris.com

averyhess.com

Check out my other blogs at kathiesblogs.wordpress.com

Don’t answer that…yet.  First we need to remove some variables.

Let’s pull out the possibility that we’re talking about two different markets – like nationally vs locally.  For this question we’ll only analyze the Greater Phoenix real estate market.

We also need to remove the possibility that we’re looking at different data sets – like townhouses vs single family homes.  So let’s look at the exact same data – from the exact same system – filtered almost identically.

Next we want to make sure both statements are from similarly educated individuals.  I tell you what, to remove all doubt – I’ll say them both.  Home values in Phoenix are going up.  Home values in Phoenix are going down.

Now that we’ve removed said variables – which statement is more correct?

Uno momento – real quick let me show you a couple of charts from the Cromford Report to help you get the more correct answer.

Here is a chart showing the annual median price of homes sold in greater Phoenix.

Prices are going down-right?  This next chart is showing the monthly median price of homes sold in greater Phoenix.

Prices are going up!!  It’s hard to see the exact numbers, but hopefully you can make out the trends.  If you only look at the top chart (Annual Median) it would be correct to say values are coming down.

However, if you look at the second chart (aka monthly median).  You can see that values bottomed in April and have been bumping along since.

The Statistics for Real Estate Transactions inOctober 2009 are in.  These combines with the 3rd Quarter 2009 are as follows:

In October 2009 there were 783 listings available for sale, 219 new listings were posted, and 182 listed properites went from active to under contract in the month of October 2009 in Stafford County, Va.  While the avg. price droped 10.08% this October as compared to last October (see Oct. 2008 figures below), home prices over the year 2009 seem to have stabilized or at least droped at a much slower rate from a year ago.  The figures are very encouraging when looking at the number of days it took to sell the homes that did close in October 2009 (54) vs. 126 days in Oct. 2008.

If you have any questions about these statistics or any other Real Estate questions, contact me at kathieabercrombie@mris.com . See my other blogs at kathiesblogs.wordpress.com

BCREA has published YTD stats and they look good! While active listings are down in Northern BC average list price is up by 4% over October 2008, units sold are up and so is the dollar volume and sales to active listings ratio.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 4.90 percent last week from 4.97 percent two weeks ago. The rate reached 4.61 percent at the end of March, the lowest level since the group’s records began in 1990.

At the current 30-year rate, monthly borrowing costs for each $100,000 of a loan would be $530.73, or about $84 less than the same week a year earlier, when the rate was 6.24 percent.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.34 percent the prior week. The rate on a one-year adjustable mortgage increased to 6.85 percent from 6.83 percent.

Combined sales of new and existing homes were up 24 percent in September from the lowest level in at least a decade in January, helping pull the market out of its worst slump in seven decades.

Rising demand, in turn, has helped stabilize home values and construction.

via Home-Purchase Index in U.S. Plunges to Lowest Level Since 2000 – Bloomberg.com.

I have always said that when there is a recession Sarasota is among the last to experience it and among the first to recover.  The National Association of Realtors indicated that homes prices have fallen in 8 of 10 cities in the US in the third quarter.  At $185,200, the median home price in the Sarasota-Bradenton area is up 5.3% from the second quarter of this year.  Total home sales in Sarasota-Bradenton for the third quarter of this year  topped 2,314 which was about the same as in Q2 but up 32 percent from last year.    The Today Show named Sarasota the number one place to buy and it looks like now is the time to buy.  Visit www.todayshowsarasota.com for more information.

Cumulative historical statistics.
Single family/ Condo / Townhouse on the market as of September 10 th, 2009

Statistic

12 Month Average is a rolling average based on the last 12 months reported sold. Percentage difference is compared to current month.

While representative of the market activity, these figures may not include all sales brokered by Member firms, and should not be viewed as all inclusive of sales transacted within the reference time periods.

©2009 – Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS®

© Flavia Westerwelle

TransDomo,LLC / ShellTree Realty
Flavia & Klaus Westerwelle
Phone: 864.908.0690
Email: info@transdomo.com
TransDomo
Westerwelle
Photos from Greenville, SC

The following chart shows all closed residential single family sales year to date reported to Rim O’The World Association of Realtors in Lake Arrowhead CA through November 5, 2009.

These statistics make it very obvious that by far the bulk of our activity has been (and continues to be) in the low end. Due to the foreclosure activity, the prices have dropped substantially. Although many of the buyers have been first time home buyers taking advantage of the housing affordability, low interest rates, and the first time home buyer tax credit, we have also had a number of investors coming in with cash.

The effect of all this is we are now running low on inventory which is stabilizing the prices at the low end. We are also seeing multiple offer scenarios again.

If you would like more information on your particular price range or specific needs in the Lake Arrowhead Market, please visit ArrowheadRealEstate.com or call Glenn Tinturin at 909-336-6733.

Trend

Based on information from the Multiple Listing Service of Greenville, South Carolina, Inc. for the period August 2008 to August 2009 – as of September 10, 2009.
Source: MLS / Greenville

While representative of the market activity, these figures may not include all sales brokered by Member firms, and should not be viewed as all inclusive of sales transacted within the reference time periods.

©2009 – Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS®

© Flavia Westerwelle

TransDomo,LLC / ShellTree Realty
Flavia & Klaus Westerwelle
Phone: 864.908.0690
Email: info@transdomo.com
TransDomo
Westerwelle
Photos from Greenville, SC

So I ran the numbers for October 2009 and was a little surprised by the results. Closings +8000. That’s 50% above 10/08. With 12,000 transactions still in Pending status, and the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit scheduled to end this month, November should close a similar number. In fact we may total the most November closings ever, if we top 8071 from 11/04. With 78,000 YTD closings, 2009 is on track to rank as the 3rd highest year on record, which we should reach by Thanksgiving. We are already 30% above the total for 2008 and should end the year up about 50%.

Besides the YTD numbers, let’s look at the trends. The % of REO’s continues to drop both as Closed transactions (44%-3517) and in the Pending category (35%-4190). There currently is a 38-day supply (4417) of Active REO’s. Short Sales (SS) on the other hand continue to increase. SS Active Listings make up 25% (8200) of all Actives with another +6000 in the AWC statuses and October’s Closings were at 20% (1632) once again. With SS Pending’s totaling 31% (3713) the % will increase. A further look at SS shows that both the ADOM and CDOM is about double the ‘not’ SS DOM numbers. 131 vs. 57 for the agent and 140 vs. 78 for the cumulative. I don’t think that’s a surprise to anyone, although it seems like SS are taking much longer than that to most in the field. The Good News is that the DOM for Closed SS is improving-by almost 3 weeks in the last quarter.

The price numbers are continuing to ‘bump around’ with no consistent trend line. October’s Average Sales price was down about $4000 to $171,000 and the Median Sales price was down $2000 to $128,000. Both of these numbers are considerably above the yearly lows of $159,000 and $115,000 respectively, but the Average has been up and down for the past 4 months, with the Median down for the first time since April.

The last number I track is the Vacant properties. October had 78% (6311) of the Closed properties Vacant. As recently as August 27th, the YTD % of all Closings that were Vacant-stood at 85%. This % should continue to decrease as Pending’s are at 72% (8630). This is another positive trend, since the more properties that are sold with people living in them, translates into a pool of buyers for New homes and other Owner occupant transactions.

Currently on Siesta Key there are 374 condominiums for sale at an average price of $650,498. The highest price is a 4 bedroom 4 bath condo/townhouse unit at Waters Edge that is listed for $2,799,000. The lowest price condo is an efficiency unit at the Hyatt Siesta Beach, a fractional ownership resort which is listed for only $135,700.

So far this year 157 condominiums have been sold at the average price of $529,462. The highest priced sale closed at the selling price of $3,150,000. It was a 4 bedroom condo at Seagrove that was listed for $4,250,000. The lowest priced sale was $140,553 for a foreclosure unit at Bay Oaks.

At this time on Siesta Key there are 42 pending condominium transactions.  The average priced listing under contract on Siesta Key is $439,952.  Condominium sales on average are closing at 88.5% of their listed price.  There are some nice deals on Siesta Key right now so give us a call at 941-650-4626 or visit www.siestakeycondominiums.com for details about each condominium property.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Top Democrats in the Senate have reached an agreement to extend the soon-to-expire $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said on Tuesday. “We have that. Done,” Dodd told reporters. He declined to specify the details of the agreement. But a Republican who has worked with Dodd cautioned that they were still negotiating on the measure, which could come up for a vote on Tuesday evening as part of a package that would extend unemployment benefits. “We’re close, we’re close but I can’t get into any details until it’s a done deal,” said Republican Senator Johnny Isakson.

The popular tax credit, which has helped lift the housing market out of its worst slump since the Great Depression, is set to expire on November 30. Dodd and Isakson want to extend the credit through June of next year and broaden it to anyone buying a primary residence, not just first-time buyers.

Homes sales in Florida increased by as much as 34 percent in October marking the 13th consecutive month with increased sales as measure in year-to-year comparison.  There were 14,419 homes sold in September this year compared to 10,778 for the same period last year.  The increase in condominium sales was even more dramatic.  Statewide the sales of condominiums increased by 77 percent over September 2008 and nearly 9 percent over August of this year.  Over 5,000 condo were sold in September compared to 2,870 in September of 2008.  With so many good deals among foreclosures and short sales it is no surprise that sales are up.  If you would like to register to receive daily updates about foreclosures in our area visit www.bankownedpropertydeals.com .

I’m a fan of RSS feeds.  If you like time saving technology tools, you probably are too.  It’s ways nice to be able to visit one website to see if there is any new content on multiple websites – that you choose.  If you’re not sure how to take advantage of this powerful piece of technology, you should watch the video – RSS in Plain English.  If you’d like a little more instruction on how to set up RSS feeds with an igoogle page – check out this Cool Google Tools presentation.  The reason for all this talk about RSS feeds?

Michael Orr with the Cromford Report now has an RSS feed for the articles he and Tom Ruff publish on his website.  The feed shares the latest article’s title as a hyperlink so you can click-through (log in) and read the most recent content. Way better than having to login everyday to see if he’s created a new masterpiece.  As you probably know, all ARMLS subscribers have free access to the password protected information on his site.  (Go here if you still haven’t signed-up for your password.)

Thanks Mike – here’s to helping your fans save time!

Santa Clara County Single family home multiple listing statistics:

 Active 2175

Pending 2931

Closed in Last 30 Days 922

Average days on market is 53

The median home price is Florida is currently $142,000.  This time last year it was 19 percent higher at $174,900.