The American League West Division has been an arms race all offseason. It has seen Ben Sheets go to Oakland, Rich Harden go to Los Angeles, Cliff Lee come to Seattle, and a few returns to the AL West by Joel Pineiro (Angels), Colby Lewis (Rangers) and now reportedly Erik Bedard (Seattle). On paper, the AL West looks like it could very easily be the best pitching division in baseball.

New Angels pitchers Joel Pineiro played for the Mariners from 2000-2006

Let’s start with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They may have lost John Lackey, but their rotation is still very strong. Their five are Jared Weaver (16-8, 3.75 ERA, 211 innings, 174 Ks), Scott Kazmir(10-9, 4.89 ERA, 147+ innings, 117 Ks), Joe Saunders (16-7 4.60 ERA, 186 innings, 101 Ks), Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49 ERA, 214 innings, 105 Ks), and Erivin Santana (8-8, 5.03 ERA, 139+ innings, 107 Ks). When all healthy, this will be a frightening starting 5. Santana had a shortened season due to injuries and Kazmir has had previous run-ins with the injury bug as well, but Santana is just one year removed from a 16-win season 200+ inning season and Kazmir owns almost all of the Tampa Bay Rays pitching records.

Much of the A's pitching outcome will depend of if Justin Duchscherer can make a return from last season's surgery

The Oakland Athletics added big right-hander Ben Sheets to their rotation. He missed all of 2009, but hasnt had an ERA over 4.00 since the 2003 season. The rest of their rotation looks to be the following: Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.06 ERA, 175+ innings, 150 Ks), Dallas Braden (8-9, 3.89 ERA, 136+ innings, 81 Ks), Trevor Cahill (10-13, 4.63 ERA, 178+ innings, 90 Ks), and Justin Duchsherer (also missed all of 2009, but had a 2.54 ERA in 22 starts in 08). I’d be shocked if Gio Gonzalez didnt get some time starting as well. Having two pitchers who havent pitched in a full year will allow Gonzalez to rack up the fill in starts. Gonzalez had 109 Ks in 98+ innings but has a high ERA (5.75), so he will most likely not get featured action in the starting rotation. The A’s have a handful of young and talented pitchers who are in need of a veteran influence to guide them and between Duchsherer and Sheets both staying healthy, that could be their guiding light to victory.

Scott Feldman won 17 games in 2009. Can he do it again in 2010?

The Texas Rangers were able to snag a pitcher in Rich Harden that was targeted by many teams, the Mariners included. Yes, this is the same Rich Harden that played for Oakland and consistently tore up Mariners hitters. Harden is a highly effective pitcher but has a dreadful history with injuries, and hasn’t hit the 30-start mark since 2004. Besides Harden the Rangers have Scott Feldman (17-8, 4.08 ERA, 189+ innings, 113 Ks), Colby Lewis (11-9, 2.96 ERA, 176+ innings, 186 Ks in Japan), Derek Holland (8-13, 6.12 ERA, 138+ innings, 107 Ks), and Tommy Hunter (9-6, 4.10 ERA, 112 innings, 64 Ks). Lewis was not impressive in the least bit before playing in Japan for the past two seasons. In Japan, Lewis took back-to-back strikeout titles and is hoping to bring that confidence back tot he states to pitch well in America and the MLB. The Rangers lost Kevin Millwood to the Baltimore Orioles and now more pressure lies on Feldman to repeat his 17-win season success from last season.

The M's are counting on a repeat of King Felix's Cy Young runner-up season from 2009.

The Seattle Mariners made two power deals for their rotation. They traded for Cliff Lee and signed Felix Hernandez to a five-year deal. Hernandez (19-5, 2.49 ERA, 238+ innings, 217 Ks) and Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA, 231+ innings, 181 Ks) will lead the rotation and be the strongest 1-2 punch in baseball. Behind them are Ryan Rowland-Smith (5-4, 3.74 ERA, 96+ innings, 52 Ks), Ian Snell (7-10, 4.84 ERA, 145 innings, 89 Ks), and starting May or June possibly Erik Bedard (11-7, 3.24 ERA, 164 innings, 162 Ks COMBINED in first two seasons with Seattle), but in the meantime it will be a mixture of our young arms. Most Likely the combination of Jason Vargas, Garret Olsen, and Doug Fister. Those final three being the M’s predominant young starters who have a shot at the mound in 2010. You cannot get more set than Hernandez and Lee to start off the rotation. But beyond those two the questions begin to arise. Rowland-Smith will be entering his first year as a set starter, Snell pitched well in Seattle when coming over from Pittsburgh, but will he continue that new pitching groove or will his old Pittsburgh pitching find its way to Seattle? Bedard, oh Bedard… If he can come back in May or June and stay back, he will pitch great. The reported contract has some say up to an additional 4 or 5 million extra in performance incentives and if Bedard can figure out that good pitching now equals more money next year, he will be back to his pitching ability from Baltimore when people were mentioning his name in the Cy Young race.

The American League West is going to be an exciting division, and I might say the most exciting. Don’t count out the little 4-team division early, there are a lot of talent pitchers packed in and most are just waiting for their time to shine. I anticipate a 1-game playoff in October being the deciding factor on who gets to the playoff spot.

Sorry Nationals' fans, not even Drew Brees' magic touch can get you to the World Series in 2010 (or '11, '12, ad infinitum).

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, watching Jersey Shore 24/7 or hanging out with Tiger Woods in a “Sex Rehab” center in Mississippi, you probably know by now that the New Orleans Saints will be playing the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV on February 7th. Moreover, with all the hype and news coverage that comes with a game of such magnitude, you probably also know that this will be the first Super Bowl appearance ever for the New Orleans franchise (who no longer can be called the “Aint’s”). That leaves only four teams in the NFL that have never been to the big game; the Detroit Lions (shocker), Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. So, does the Saints magical run to the big game give hope to fans of long-suffering baseball teams as it does to the above football teams, or is it simply another painful reminder of how little they’ve accomplished in their pitiful existences?       

Entering their 39th season, the Rangers still have not made a World Series appearance.

Heading into the 2010 Major League Baseball season there are only three teams that have never reached a World Series; the Washington Nationals (including their time in Montreal), the Texas Rangers and, of course, my beloved Seattle Mariners. That’s right, even the four expansion teams created in the last 17 years (Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays) have all made World Series appearances, with the Marlins winning twice and the Diamondbacks once. How frustrating is that if you’re a Nationals, Rangers or Mariners fan? Heck, I’d assume those teams are even more embarrassed than that guy in Viagra commercials who tries to work up the courage to talk to his doctor about ED (though his real problem might not be ED, but the fact that his reflection talks to him).  The Montreal/Washington franchise has been in existence since 1969, the Texas Rangers since 1972 and the Seattle Mariners havecompeted in Major League Baseball since 1977 (these dates do not include the two separate Washington Senator franchises that spawned the Montreal and Texas teams). Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally, but these teams somehow have not been able to reach a World Series in over 30 years of existence. Will that change in 2010?      

Now, before I go any further into depth about the three teams, let’s eliminate the Nationals from the conversation all together, because let’s face it—it’s going to take a lot more than a miracle for Washington to make the World Series next year (or ever for that case). They’re just like the little engine that could, except they can’t (also see: Royals, Kansas City and Pirates, Pittsburgh).      

The addition of Cliff Lee makes the Mariners a serious threat to capture the AL West this year.

The Mariners and Rangers, on the other hand, both had strong offseasons that could put them in contention to make a deep run in the playoffs in 2010. Texas had a solid 2009 season with the emergence of young pitchers like Scott Feldman and Matt Harrison and added a talented hurler in Rich Harden to their roster to complement an offense led by Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. The Mariners were one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball last year, finishing 85-77, and reloaded their roster this offseason with Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley and 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee. The two teams will have their work cut out for them in an increasingly difficult AL West, but it’s not hard to believe that either Texas or Seattle could capture the division. Of course, having never reached a World Series, neither Texas or Seattle has a particularly strong postseason track record. Which one has the best chance to break through this year?     

The Rangers have been one of the sorriest organizations in baseball over the past 40 years (but no one’s blaming George Bush). Not only have they never reached a World Series, but the franchise has also never even won a single playoff series. Texas didn’t reach the postseason for the first time until 1996 and have a lifetime 1-9 record (all against the Yankees) in the playoffs. Quite simply, they stink.     

Expect plenty more dog-piles from the M's in 2010. The magic is back in Seattle.

Seattle had a similarly putrid start as a franchise, failing to post a winning record until 1991 and not making their first postseason appearance until 1995 (but what an appearance it was). However, whereas the Rangers have never won a playoff series, the Mariners have made three trips to the ALCS, falling to the Indians in 1995 and the Yankees in 2000 and 2001. Seattle’s overall record in the postseason is a respectable 15-19 (.440 winning percentage) which compares favorably to the New Orleans Saints 4-6 postseason record (.400 winning percentage). Like the Saints, the Mariners have enjoyed a modicum of postseason success, yet have been unable to get over the hump and reach their sport’s biggest stage. That is, until 2010 rolled around.  

The stars have aligned for Sodo Mojo in 2010. Bet it all on the Mariners to reach the World Series for the first time this season…my logic is infallible.

The now Oakland Athletics pitcher, Ben Sheets

Another pitcher that Seattle was reportedly interested in has signed with a team and once again it’s with a non-Seattle team. Even worse is that its an AL West team. It was announced late this morning/early afternoon that RHP Ben Sheets, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers, has signed a one-year deal with the Oakland Athletics for reportedly $10 million plus performance bonuses.

This is almost deja vu for Mariners fans as a little over a month ago, Rich Harden signed with the Texas Rangers to a one-year deal with a mutual option for a second year. Harden, like Sheets, was sought after by the M’s but ultimately lost to an in-division rival. Late last week it was made offical that former Mariners pitcher Joel Pineiro had signed a 2-year $16 million deal. Odds are that Jackie Z had at least looked into a reunion with Pineiro, who began his career in Seattle.

Now I am in no way doubting Z’s plan, but with these pitchers going off the board, it is leaving little options for a suitable free agent pitcher. We’ve added Cliff Lee, but I have stated a few times now that we should probably add one more. I would feel more comfortable with having one more veteran arm in our rotation, rather than dump the load on a share of youngsters.

Possible starting pitching rotations for 2010

The top of our rotation is solid. But after that it gets a little more interesting. Some are still saying Ryan Rowland-Smith needs to prove what he can do, but I think that his streak of 4 starts with at least 7 innings (going 8 all but once) speaks for itself. He had a 3.74 ERA in 96 innings and its time he gets his reward of more starts. Ian Snell pitched much better after he came over from the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was 2-8 in Pittsburgh and 5-2 in Seattle. He will be help solidify our bottom end of the rotation.

But that leaves one more spot that right now looks like will be shared among our many young arms. Here’s a better idea, have 5 starters, and use the young arms as fill-ins. Either give them some bullpen duty or let them start in AAA. If we were to keep our 3, 4, and 5 starters to 20-25 starts that would leave considerable space for the young guys to get their chances at occasional starts and getting to show their stuff.

I would feel way better about our rotation in that circumstance than I would with a relatively untested young arm going out and tossing 20 some odd starts and racking up a big loss column on his record.

R.L. Judd

Next up in the starting rotation series is the American League West. The West is a real interesting division in terms of starting rotations because there are so many young starting pitchers in this division.

This division is filled with pitchers in their mid-to-late 20’s. Pitchers like Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Brett Anderson make this division a nightmare for opposing batters.

Here are the starting rotations for each American League West team as presently constructed.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

1. Jered Weaver, RHP

2. Joe Saunders, LHP

3. Ervin Santana, RHP

4. Scott Kazmir, LHP

5. Matt Palmer, RHP

Quick Take – This staff lost its No.1 starter in John Lackey, but has four pretty good starters to replace him. This is a big year for Weaver. He needs to step up and pitch to his potential for a full season. Kazmir was brought in to replace Lackey, so he needs to have a big year as well.

Texas Rangers

1. Scott Feldman, RHP

2. Rich Harden, RHP

3. Derek Holland, LHP

4. Tommy Hunter, RHP

5. Brandon McCarthy, RHP

Quick Take – This rotation is young, but has a ton of potential. Feldman is not your classic No.1 starter, but did go an impressive 17-8 last year with a 4.05 ERA and only gave up 178 hits in 189.2 IP. The Rangers need to find a way to keep Harden healthy, which is easier said than done.

Seattle Mariners

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP

2. Cliff Lee, LHP

3. Ian Snell, RHP

4. Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP

5. Doug Fister, RHP

Quick Take – When Lee is your No.2 starter, then you have the makings of a very, very good starting rotation. With Lee and Hernandez at the top of the rotation, they could win 35-40 games just by themselves. However, I have my doubts about the rest of the rotation. I still think they need to sign another pitcher.

Oakland A’s

1. Brett Anderson, LHP

2. Trevor Cahill, RHP

3. Justin Duchscherer, RHP

4. Vin Mazzaro, RHP

5. Dallas Braden, LHP

Quick Take – This rotation is very, very young. It’s so young that I feel they need a veteran in that rotation to lead them. Anderson and Cahill have the most potential on this staff and one of them needs to show some strides in 2010. The staff will be helped out by the A’s defensive additions this offseason.

Tomorrow, I will switch gears and look at the National League starting rotations. I’ll start with the National League East and work my way around.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Since the beginning of the offseason, the Texas Rangers have been in search of a right-handed, DH type bat. They had a trade worked out with the Boston Red Sox for Mike Lowell, but that trade was nixed and they have looked at free agents like Jermaine Dye and Vladimir Guerrero.

Yesterday, they finally found their right-handed bat.

According to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, the Rangers have signed former Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim DH/OF Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, $5 million contract plus incentives.

Vlad will be impaling in Texas in 2010

Guerrero becomes the third former Angel to sign with a division rival this offseason. Guerrero will join Darren Oliver in Texas and Chone Figgins signed with the Seattle Mariners earlier in the offseason.

This is a pretty interesting move by the Rangers. If I had my choice between Guerrero or Dye, I would have chosen Dye. I just think at this point in their careers, Dye is the better option. But I have no idea what Dye was asking for or if he is still searching for a multi-year deal.

Vlad is a shell of his former-self at this point. He will be 35 in February, his OPS has dipped three years in a row, he runs like Mark Eaton towards the end of Eaton’s career, and he only played in 100 games last year.

I don’t think Vlad has much left in the tank. We all saw last year in the playoffs he couldn’t catch up to good fastballs and he can no longer hit the bad pitch out of the strike zone on a consistent basis like he used to.

Perhaps he can find the fountain of youth in Arlington, where a lot of hitters come alive playing in that hitter friendly ballpark. I would guess Vlad will hit fifth or sixth in the Rangers’ lineup and serve as their primary DH in 2010.

While the Rangers certainly do have a talented roster, they have collected too many high risk, high reward players for my liking. Just think about all the injury prone players they have on their roster.

Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rich Harden, Matt Harrison, Frank Francisco, and Guerrero. Those are a lot of players and star players to worry about over the course of a 162 game schedule.

We have seen in the past–especially last year–injuries taking there toll on the Rangers as the season progresses. 2010 looks to be more of the same for Texas.

Guerrero will be entering his 15th year in the major leagues and has a career .321 average with 407 home runs and won the MVP award in 2004 with the Angels.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

John Lackey is good. That’s as far as I’ll go. As I wrote earlier, I like good, smart pitchers. I’d rather have a staff filled with competent, cagey starters than one top heavy with an ace and a near-ace followed by a bunch of question marks.

Theo gave Lackey $17M/year for five years. The Boston boss can afford the investment even if Lackey breaks down or suddenly becomes more hittable. The Sox and the Yanks are the only two teams in baseball that can make such a deal with a pitcher of his caliber and not be financially hamstrung for a half decade. More power to Epstein and Brian Cashman.

Had Hungry Jim Hendry or Kenny Williams made the deal, though, I’d have called for their scalps.

Let’s take a look at your new mound star. He has excellent control, rarely gives up a home run and has a decent strike out rate. I’d be worried, though, about his hit-ability. For his career, Lackey has given up 9.1 hits per nine innings. He’s not dominating. At $85M, I’d want dominating. Then again, I’d never make an $85M investment in a pitcher in the first place, even if he gave up only seven hits per nine.

It seems that Lackey hit his peak in 2007, when he was 28, and now has settled in as a nice, plus pitcher. His value isn’t in being the untouchable force of nature that Pedro Martinez was. It’s that, with him, the Boston rotation is becoming full. It’s solid from 1 through 4 with only joker being Clay Buchholz, in the back-end spot. I agree with you — I’d turn the kid over to the highest bidder in a heartbeat in exchange for some more offensive firepower and then look for a number five guy at a bargain rate.

Here’s where I’ll give Theo even more credit. He was reported to be interested in Rich Harden. Thank your lucky stars Harden signed with the Rangers for one year plus a mutual-option second year with a $1M buyout. He’ll make at least $7.5M for 2010 and could, conceivably, earn $20 for the full two years. He ain’t gonna make the 20. Harden’s got electrifying stuff but his control blows and he kills bullpens. I’ve got to think that Theo knew that even better than I do and his purported interest was nothing more than smoke being blown by Harden’s agent.

Instead, Epstein gets a good, solid, dependable righthander. I like the additition of Lackey, AJ, I just don’t like the amount being sunk into him. But, If you’ve got it to sink, you may as well sink it.

Speaking of sinking, the Cubs are still looking for someone to take Milton Bradley off their hands.

ESPN.com is reporting today the Yankees have Ben Sheets on their radar. He should be. He should be on most teams’ radars.

Sheets is 31 years old with a career ERA of 3.72. More impressive, however, is his career SO/BB of 3.85. When healthy, Sheets has top of the rotation kind of stuff. This is a guy who struck out 18 batters in a nine inning game before, don’t forget.

He missed all of 2009 due to recovery from elbow surgery. Having not played in over a year, Sheets is not deserving a massive contract. We’re talking a one year deal here with a base salary around $5 million and some incentives. Look at Rich Harden’s deal, for example, as a reference point. Harden is constantly injured, like Sheets. But he did not miss all of last season and is therefore slightly more deserving a larger base salary.

Sheets makes sense for a lot of teams. He’s not a guy the Rays should go after, but teams that lose out on Roy Halladay and John Lackey should give Sheets a look. As well, teams that need a fourth starter and have the financial flexibility to take a risk, i.e. the Yankees, should definitely give this guy a try.

Jason Bay has ties to the Pacific Northwest, but is he a good fit for the Seattle Mariners?

Though the Mariners signing of free-agent third baseman Chone Figgins  shows that they are serious about competing for the division, baseball’s Winter Meetings have come and gone and the team still has plenty of holes left to fill if they want to have a realistic shot at winning the AL West. Texas has been busy all week, signing free-agent Rich Harden and acquiring Chris Ray and Mike Lowell (still pending) through trades, turning up the heat on Seattle to keep pace. The Oakland Athletics were one of the most improved teams in all of baseball during last season’s second half, and figure to be even better in 2010 with all the experience their young players gained down the stretch. Los Angeles lost Figgins and may be unable to resign their ace Jon Lackey, but the Angels are still dangerous after winning the division by 10 games last year despite battling injuries to key players the entire season. All four teams in the AL West have a legitimate shot at winning the division next year, with no clear front-runner at this point in the offseason; what will it take for the Mariners to come out on top in 2010?      

The addition of Figgins fills Seattle’s need for a third-baseman, but the Mariners still need help at first-base, catcher, left-field, designated hitter and in their rotation (more on this in a later post). Statistically one of the worst offensive teams in the American League last season, Seattle’s superb pitching staff carried the team all year, leading the AL with a 3.87 team ERA. While the pitching will likely regress a bit next year due to the losses of Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn, it’s clear that the Mariners main focus this offseason needs to be on adding offensive firepower; this may prove to be an expensive proposition with four positions yet to be filled.      

Will high-flying Mike Cameron return to Seattle next season?

After Endy Chavez’s season-ending injury the Mariners got virtually no production out of leftfield, with the trio of Bill Hall, Michael Saunders and Ryan Langerhans performing well below replacement level. Jason Bay is imminently available after being unable to come to terms with the Red Sox and has strong ties to the Pacific Northwest, but is seeking a contract in the range of 4-5 years and $60+ million dollars, a deal that would leave the Mariners out of cash and still needing a first baseman, catcher and right-handed DH. Additionally, there are concerns about whether a one-dimensional player like Bay, who hits for power but provides little else, would be worth a long-term investment in a park like Safeco Field that caters towards pitching. Free-agent outfielder Matt Holliday offers more versatility than Bay but would need a similarly hand-cuffing contract to come aboard (he is represented by Scott Boras after all). A more budget friendly option is former Seattle Mariner Mike Cameron, who despite turning 36 last season, is still a plus defender in the outfield who offers good power and patience at the plate. The Mariners could probably ink Cameron to a one-year deal, limiting the risk if he performs poorly, which would also give Saunders another year to develop in Triple-A Tacoma. Other players to consider in left-field include Randy Winn, Jonny Gomes or Josh Willingham.   

A breakout performer last year, Seattle would be happy to bring Branyan back at first base in 2010.

The Mariners got surprising production out of first base last season, with Russell Branyan taking advantage of his first chance to play full-time by slugging 31 HR’s and driving in 76 runs. The early indications seem to suggest that Seattle plans on bringing Branyan back for at least one more year, although he would probably be due a substantial raise over the $1.4 million dollars he earned in 2009. Branyan stated all season long that he owed it to the Mariners to resign with the club because they were the only team willing to give him a full-time role, but it remains to be seen whether that will hold true if another team offers him a lucrative deal. If Seattle loses Branyan to another team they could replace him internally with Mike Carp, who performed admirably in a short trial last season (.315 in 54 AB’s), or they could pursue free-agent Nick Johnson. Though injury prone, the 31-year-old Johnson has one of the best batting eyes in the game (.426 OBP in 2009) and is a solid defensive first baseman who could fit comfortably into the Mariner’s lineup as their number three hitter. There has also been some speculation that Seattle would consider shifting second baseman Jose Lopez (a defensive liability up the middle) to first base and moving Matt Tuiasosopo (a third baseman in the minors) to second, a possibility now that the hot corner has been filled by Figgins.   

Catcher was another gaping hole for the Mariners in 2009, with a disappointing season from Kenji Johjima and young catchers Rob Johnson and Adam Moore struggling to adjust to big league pitching. With Johjima back in Japan, the battle for starting catcher in 2010 will boil down to Johnson and Moore unless the Mariners try to acquire a catcher via free agency or trade. Johnson received praise from the pitching staff for his game-calling abilities but he hit only .213 with 2 HR’s and 27 RBI’s. Moore saw limited action with the Mariners, spending the majority of the season in the minor leagues, hitting a combined .287-13 HR’s-56 RBI’s between Double and Triple-A. Seattle has been mentioned as a possible destination for free-agent catcher Miguel Olivo, a defensively-challenged backstop who hit 23 HR’s in only 390 AB’s last season. While Olivo has never shown the ability to draw a walk, he has consistently produced good power numbers and is the best player available in a very thin catching market. If the M’s could sign him to an incetive-laden one-year deal, Olivo is probably a worthwhile gamble; if he wants a multi-year deal Seattle is better off allowing Johnson and Moore to develop in the majors.  

Could the former Mariner killer become a killer Mariner?

Designated hitter may have been the most popular position for Seattle in 2009, with clubhouse favorites Mike Sweeney and Ken Griffey Jr. manning the post, but it certainly wasn’t the most productive. Griffey’s back and figures to get the majority of at-bats against right-handed pitching; the Mariners hope he can rebound from a sub par return to the Emerald City last year (.214-19 HR’s-57 RBI’s). Seattle needs to find a player who hits left-handed pitching well to platoon with Griffey, but this year’s free agent crop is very thin in terms of quality hitters. The M’s might have to take a flier on someone coming off an injury or a bad season. Some possible candidates include Xavier Nady, Olivo, Carlos Delgado or even longtime thorn-in-the-side Vladimir Guerrero. While Guerrero’s power has dipped in recent years, he would still be a significant upgrade over Sweeney as a part-time DH, and could become a solid run producer with Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the lineup. 

As of today there are still 266 free agents available for the Mariners to sign, so despite the team’s need to fill multiple holes in their lineup, there’s no need to panic–yet. The Rangers’ lastest moves have upped the ante, but Jack Zduriencik has shown himself to be a very capable baseball man, and will work tirelessly to make Seattle a frontrunner for the 2010 AL West title. The Mariners certainly have issues to address, but the pieces to build a title contender are out there; now it’s just up to the Mariners and their front office to fit them all together.

During the Winter Meetings, the Rangers traded Kevin Millwood and 3 M cash to the Orioles for 27 year old relief pitcher Chris Ray and the 3rd pick in the Rule 5 draft which was Benjamin Snyder, another pitcher.  The Rangers owed Millwood 12 M in 2010, so by freeing up 9 M, they went for Rich Harden.

Last year Millwood started as our number one pitcher, but in the end Feldman was getting better results.  Last season Mill had a 13-10 record, a 3.67 ERA, and 198 and 2/3 innings pitched.  That’s not “ace” stuff, but he did eat some major innings for us, and that’s certainly not bad for Rangers’ standards either.  You also have to take Millwood’s age as a factor.  He’s about to turn 35 which means he’s past his prime.

So the Rangers signed the 28 year old free agent Rich Harden to a one year 6.5 M contract with 3.5 M in incentives based on innings pitched.  Last year Harden was 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA and 171 Ks in 141 IP.  This is definitely a gamble.  When Harden is on, he has #1 stuff, he dominates.  However, he has had a past of injuries and has only had one season of throwing more than 150 IP.

Rich Harden with GM John Daniels and team President Nolan Ryan

The immensely talented but oft-injured Rich Harden was one of three risky additions by the Texas Rangers during the Winter Meetings.

The Texas Rangers missed out on the playoffs this past season, but they improved drastically. They finished a distant second place to the Anaheim Angels in the American League West, yet had an eight-win improvement over their 2008 campaign. Their offense hit 224 home-runs, a stellar amount, but their success lied in the pitching staff.

Prior to last season, their pitching had been awful for many years. 2008 was particularly dreadful, as their team-ERA was 5.37, ranking dead-last in baseball. In one season, that positioning decreased to 18th, as their ERA dropped a full point to 4.38, better than two playoff teams. This offseason, a front office anchored by young General Manager Jon Daniels has continued their commitment to pitching.

They traded 34-year old workhorse Kevin Millwood to the Baltimore Orioles for 27-year old reliever Chris Ray. Millwood, who has one year remaining on his contract, has always been a dependable pitcher, having been groomed years ago by Leo Mazzone, the longtime Atlanta Braves pitching coach. He was part of one of the best pitching rotations ever.

He will serve as a mentor, and a mighty fine one at that. The Orioles rotation is filled with young pitchers, including one, the heralded Brian Matusz, who grew up watching Millwood play for the Braves. Millwood has 155 wins to 121 losses over the course of his 12-year career, with a respectable 4.03 ERA. After a few years with an under-.500 record and a 5-plus ERA, he had a excellent 2009 season, winning 13 games with a 3.67 ERA. The Orioles would love for him to duplicate this production, but his veteran leadership as a mentor will mean more than his record.

The 27-year old Ray is looking to become his 2006 self. That year, he was the Orioles closer, a promising 24-year old with sky-high talent. He collected 33 saves and had a 2.36 ERA, and Baltimore had reason to believe he would be their closer of the  future. But then the injuries hit. In 2007, he underwent Tommy John Surgery, and didn’t pitch for the Orioles in 2008. He struggled this past season in his return to the bullpen, allowing 64 hits, 36 runs, and 8 homers in just 43 innings, translating to a 7.27 ERA. Ray has little positive to go from, but he’s given a chance to regain his form in Texas.

Daniels made this trade for financial reasons, but he clearly doesn’t see Ray as damaged goods. If he did, he wouldn’t have traded Millwood for him. Ray is a low-risk/high-reward player. If he can stay healthy, their bullpen can only benefit.

Daniels took a chance on another injury-plagued pitcher, signing free-agent Rich Harden to a one-year contract worth $7 million. He was just one of many talented pitchers to excel with the Oakland Athletics franchise during his tenure with the Billy Beane-run team, but he couldn’t stay healthy enough to live up to his ace-like ability. During his five seasons in Oakland, he made a total of 89 starts, which means he missed an average of seventeen starts per season. In that time, he had an oblique injury, a ligament strain in his pitching elbow, and a rotator-cuff strain, and made five trips to the disabled list due to these various injuries.

But though he made a trip to the disabled list during his one-and-a-half year tenure with the Chicago Cubs, he was relatively injury-free. He made 12 starts with the club after being dealt from Oakland midseason, and went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA. Over those three months, he struck out 89 in 71 innings, while allowing an extremely low 39 hits and 14 earned runs. This success carried over to this past season, during which he compiled a 9-9 record and continued his high strikeout rate, striking out 171 in 141 innings.

Though the he has a injury-riddled history, this was a brilliant signing on so many fronts. First, it’s a one-year deal, so if he doesn’t pan out, there won’t be any longterm ramifications expense-wise. Second, they signed him for a cheap sum of $7 million; if injuries hadn’t shortened his first five seasons, he would worth at least $16 million annually on the open-market. Third, he is only 28 years old, and if he makes a satisfactory amount of starts and lives up to his career 3.39 ERA, he will be in line for a very lucrative multi-year deal come next offseason, and the Rangers would have a chance to dole out the cash.

The Boston Red Sox are closing to doling out the cash so the Rangers can make a move for another injury-prone player. Their third baseman, Mike Lowell, has been hampered by a hip injury over the past two seasons, limiting his mobility on defense. But the 35-year old has been a solid hitter throughout his current 11-year career: he can be counted on to hit at least .280, club 17-25 homers, drive in over 80 runs, strikeout less than 65 times (he has never struck out more than 92 times in a season), and hit 25-35 doubles. Why would the Red Sox trade such a dependable hitter? His deteriorating health and hefty contract are irksome to their higher-ups. The hip is still bugging him, he’s nursing a thumb injury, and he’s set to make $12 million next season.

The injury history doesn’t matter to the Rangers, as their previous moves indicate. The possibility of trading 25-year old catcher Max Ramirez to Boston for Lowell increased when the Red Sox said they would pay $9 million of next year’s salary.

In one day, Texas acquired a reliever ready to resurrect his career, signed a starting pitcher with 20-win ability, and reached an agreement with a dependable veteran that they will use at third-base, first-base, and as their designated-hitter. All gambles, but risks worth taking. In all, a solid haul at the Winter Meetings by baseball’s youngest General Manager.

The Rangers sent Kevin Millwood to Baltimore, then signed free-agent Rich Harden the next day.

 1) Texas Rangers trade Kevin Millwood and cash to Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Chris Ray: The Texas Rangers have been one of baseball’s busiest teams in the  offseason thus far, and they continued that trend by sending former Opening Day starter Millwood and $3 million dollars to the Baltimore Orioles for relievers Chris Ray and Ben Snyder. Millwood was solid in 2009, going 13-10 with a 3.67 ERA but the Rangers were looking to free up salary to sign free-agent Rich Harden (a deal which has since been completed). The 27-year-old Ray is a former closer who struggled to return from elbow surgery last season but has saved 33 games as recently as 2006. The deal gives Baltimore a proven veteran pitcher controlled through 2011 to mentor younger starters David Hernandez, Brian Matsuz and Chris Tillman. 

2) Boston Red Sox trade Mike Lowell and cash to Texas in exchange for catching prospect Max Ramirez: The Red Sox freed up third base for next season, possibly in order to sign Adrian Beltre, with today’s trade of Mike Lowell to Texas. The Rangers plan to use the injury-prone Lowell as a DH and first baseman (potentially a platoon partner with Chris Davis). Lowell, a major liability in the field due to hip problems, appeared in just 119 games last year but still hit .290 with 17 HR’s and 75 RBI’s. The Red Sox have also agreed to pay most of Lowell’s $12 million dollar salary for next season if the league approves the deal. In return Boston receives Max Ramirez, a 25-year-old catcher and former Atlanta Braves top prospect, who will likely serve as Victor Martinez’s backup unless the Red Sox decide to shift Martinez to first. 

The Astros hope Feliz's strong defense will help them return to the postseason.

 3) Houston Astros sign free-agent third baseman Pedro Feliz: Feliz spent the last two years as the primary third baseman for Philadelphia but with the Phillies acquisition of Placido Polanco, the 2008 World Series champion was left looking for work and Houston happily obliged. The Astros already have Geoff Blum manning the hot corner but would prefer to use his versatility all over the field rather than play him full-time at third. Feliz is a solid defender at third base but is starting to become a liability at the plate after hitting only .266 with 12 HR’s and 88 RBI’s last season. Already 34-years-old, Feliz doesn’t have much in the way of upside and won’t turn a team from pretender to contender, but is a solid if unspectacular pickup (1 year/$4.5 million) for a team on a budget like Houston. 

4) Pittsburgh Pirates sign free-agent shortstop Bobby Crosby: An underachieving team signing an underachieving player doesn’t sound like a traditional recipe for success, but so is life for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their fans. Crosby has been in steady decline since winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2004 and struggled last year with injuries and inconsistency (.223-6 HR’s-29 RBI’s). The Pirates hope that he can challenge Ronny Cedeno for shortstop and possibly recapture some of his past success, but at only $1 million for next year Pittsburgh isn’t taking that big of a gamble on him…what’s new in Steeltown? 

5) Atlanta Braves trade relief pitcher Rafael Soriano to Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for pitcher Jesse Chavez: One of the top right-handed relief pitchers in the National League last season, Tampa Bay acquired Soriano with the idea plugging him in as their full-time closer in 2010. While splitting the closer’s role with Mike Gonzalez in Atlanta last year, Soriano posted a 2.97 ERA and struck out 102 batters in only 75 innings. The Rays had a full-blown closer by committee bullpen in 2009, and if Soriano can stay healthy Tampa Bay will be one step closer to challenging the Yankees and Red Sox for AL East supremacy. The Braves decided to move Soriano after he accepted their arbritation offer which would have cost the team between $7 and $8 million dollars next season if they had kept him. In return, Atlanta acquires an average bullpen arm (Chavez went 1-4, 4.07 ERA in 2009) at a steeply discounted price. 

Randy Wolf snagged almost $30 million dollars from the Brewers. Is he worth it?

 6) Milwaukee Brewers sign free-agent pitcher Randy Wolf: Looking to add stability to their rotation behind ace Yovanni Gallardo, the Brewers have reached an agreement with Randy Wolf on a three-year, $29 million dollar contract. The left-handed Wolf was the Dodgers most consistent pitcher last season, winning 11 games to go along with 160 strikeouts and a 3.23 ERA. However, before last year Wolf only had two other seasons with an ERA below 4.00, and is moving from one of the league’s best pitcher’s parks to one of the worst. The Brewers desperately needed starting pitching, help, but it remains to be seen whether Wolf is the right choice long-term. 

7) Texas Rangers sign free-agent pitcher Rich Harden: The ultimate high-risk, high-reward player on the market, Harden is one of the game’s most dominating starting pitchers—when he’s healthy. The deal promises Harden $7.5 million next season with a club option of $11.5 million for 2011. Harden went 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA last year for the Cubs, striking out 171 batters in only 141 innings. Unfortunately, last season was just the third time in his seven-year career that Harden pitched more than 140 innings, and only once has he made more than 30 starts in a single year (2004). If he can stay off the disabled list this could be a major coup for the Rangers, if not, it’s just a very expensive mistake.

Shortly after I put up yesterday afternoon’s post examining the Yankees’ potential free agent pitching acquisitions, news broke on two of them. Rich Harden has apparently agreed to terms with the Rangers on a one-year, $7.5 million deal (with an $11.5 million option) pending a physical.

This initially feels like a bit of an overpay, as the pervading thought seemed to be that Harden, Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer could be had for around $5 million each, but then again it’s not like there was ever only going to be one team in on their services, so it will obviously require some outbidding to land these guys. Plus, even in a down, injury-curtailed year FanGraphs has Harden valued at $8.2 million last year (and $20 (!) million in 2008), so perhaps the Rangers do know what they’re doing.

It was also announced that Ben Sheets is looking for around $12 million, also known as similar to the money he made in his last full season in 2008. Now Sheets has been a very good to elite pitcher during his career, and he did have an excellent 2008 even though his elbow prevented him from pitching in the playoffs, posting an FIP of 3.38 in 31 starts. According to FanGraphs, Sheets was worth 4.4 WAR and $20 million in 2008. Of course, Sheets did not throw a single pitch in 2009, and even with a track record as good as he has, it seems highly unlikely that anyone is going to gamble $12 million on a return to form.

The Yankees were linked to Sheets last winter and many in the fanbase were urging the team to sign him. Sheets wound up agreeing to terms with the Rangers, only to have that deal tabled when the team discovered the pitcher had a torn flexor tendon that would sideline him for the season. So far this winter has played out similar to last year, with both the Yankees and Rangers being linked to Sheets, and the Yankee fanbase once again urging the team to take a flier on the righty.

Assuming Sheets can be had for approximately $8 to $10 million, whichever team does end up signing him is going to be able to slot a guy into their rotation with a career 3.56 FIP and the potential to be a #1 starter for a relatively small amount of money and years. Come to think of it, maybe Sheets is worth $12 million a year.

And lastly in Yankee news, the team plans to take Dodgers’ outfielder Jamie Hoffman with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft today. Hoffman will likely be organizational filler, but he did OPS .856 between double and triple A last year, so maybe he sees time as a backup outfielder on the big club at some point.

Take everything I said below about John Lackey and reverse it and you will come close to assembling the Rich Harden package. As mentioned, Harden made the exact same amount of starts (51) the past two seasons as Lackey did. Harden did throw noticeably fewer innings in that span, 290 to Lackey’s 340, mainly as a result of a difference in approach. Lackey averaged 3.64 pitches per plate appearance the last two seasons, Harden was at 4.11. Strikeouts generally take more pitches to complete so it should come as little surprise to see the difference there. The important thing is note is that Lackey threw a total of 228 more pitches than Harden over 2008-9, the equivalent of one extra start per season.

Unlike Lackey, Harden’s swinging strike rate is less trendy, partially due to the lack of data points in 2006-7. However, Harden had established a 11% rate in 2003-5 and was at 15% both of the prior two seasons. He would probably demolish Texas’ hitters. Harden is also going to walk a good number of fellows. Interestingly enough, Harden’s tendency to throw strikes is no worse than Lackey’s, both hitting the zone about half the time. Harden is much more often to throw that first pitch for a ball though, but again, that’s part of the deal with high strikeout pitchers.

Harden is also more of a fly ball pitcher than Lackey. Again, Harden is about the strikeouts so pitching up in the zone is part of that most of the time. All of this combines to give us the overall picture of Harden to Lackey, way more strikeouts, a few more walks and a few more fly balls. While Lackey’s tRA* floated around 4.4, Harden’s is around 4.1 though that came in a less offensive league. The difference between the two in terms of those figures is negligible. CHONE is slightly more bearish, also projecting Harden to be equal to Lackey in performance level, but Lackey’s clear inferior in durability.

Even accounting for Harden’s higher catastrophic injury risk, he grades out as being worth $12 million or so per year. To compare them directly, Harden’s fair value over a four year deal would likely be around 4/44 compared to Lackey’s 4/52. That Harden’s health knocked that 4/44 down to 1/7.5 with an $11.5 million option is what made him a great target. An opportunity potentially (we don’t know what went on, there may have been nothing reasonable Jack Z could have done) missed here and that the Rangers signed him makes it all the more painful.

Take everything I said below about John Lackey and reverse it and you will come close to assembling the Rich Harden package. As mentioned, Harden made the exact same amount of starts (51) the past two seasons as Lackey did. Harden did throw noticeably fewer innings in that span, 290 to Lackey’s 340, mainly as a result of a difference in approach. Lackey averaged 3.64 pitches per plate appearance the last two seasons, Harden was at 4.11. Strikeouts generally take more pitches to complete so it should come as little surprise to see the difference there. The important thing is note is that Lackey threw a total of 228 more pitches than Harden over 2008-9, the equivalent of one extra start per season.

Unlike Lackey, Harden’s swinging strike rate is less trendy, partially due to the lack of data points in 2006-7. However, Harden had established a 11% rate in 2003-5 and was at 15% both of the prior two seasons. He would probably demolish Texas’ hitters. Harden is also going to walk a good number of fellows. Interestingly enough, Harden’s tendency to throw strikes is no worse than Lackey’s, both hitting the zone about half the time. Harden is much more often to throw that first pitch for a ball though, but again, that’s part of the deal with high strikeout pitchers.

Harden is also more of a fly ball pitcher than Lackey. Again, Harden is about the strikeouts so pitching up in the zone is part of that most of the time. All of this combines to give us the overall picture of Harden to Lackey, way more strikeouts, a few more walks and a few more fly balls. While Lackey’s tRA* floated around 4.4, Harden’s is around 4.1 though that came in a less offensive league. The difference between the two in terms of those figures is negligible. CHONE is slightly more bearish, also projecting Harden to be equal to Lackey in performance level, but Lackey’s clear inferior in durability.

Even accounting for Harden’s higher catastrophic injury risk, he grades out as being worth $12 million or so per year. To compare them directly, Harden’s fair value over a four year deal would likely be around 4/44 compared to Lackey’s 4/52. That Harden’s health knocked that 4/44 down to 1/7.5 with an $11.5 million option is what made him a great target. An opportunity potentially (we don’t know what went on, there may have been nothing reasonable Jack Z could have done) missed here and that the Rangers signed him makes it all the more painful.

Andy Pettitte, fresh off of four post-season victories, will remain a Yankee in 2010.  The veteran lefty inked a one-year deal worth $11.75 million – a hefty raise over 2009 when he had an incentive laden deal.  [ESPN]

Another veteran starter is changing homes.  Texas traded Kevin Millwood to the Baltimore Orioles for reliever Chris Ray.  The Orioles also get $3 million to help pay for Millwood’s 2010 salary.  Ray used to be a closer – but coming off of injuries, he’s been problematic (an ERA of 7.27 is problematic).  Millwood is, at this point, a solid middle of the rotation guy – and the Orioles could use someone who can give them a solid 180 innings, especially with the youth in their current rotation.  From what I can tell, the Rangers are freeing up salary to make a run at a younger starter – perhaps Rich Harden?  [ESPN]

And that’s EXACTLY what FoxSports is reporting…   The Rangers are nearing completion of a one-year $7.5 million deal for the talented but star-crossed starter.  Harden has talent galore but a frail body.  I do like the deal, though – and if Harden gives them 180 innings, the Rangers would win on this signing.  [FoxSports]

The Brewers are buyers – first reliever LaTroy Hawkins, a decent late inning lefty one-out guy.  Then, Milwaukee signed Randy Wolf to a three year deal worth nearly $30 million and an option for a fourth year.  Wolf is a pretty good pitcher – throws strikes, gets outs, but occasionally gets tagged for the long ball.  He’s had a couple of seasons shortened by injury, but he’s now had two and a half years of improving stats…  Of course, leaving Philadelphia for Houston and then LA will do that for you.  I think the Brewers will like the deal because Wolf is, like Millwood, a solid middle of the rotation pitcher and if you get 30 starts, he should win 12 – 15 games.  [SI]

The Red Sox signed Ramon Ramirez.  Again.  Sort of.  They already have a guy named Ramon Ramirez – and now they signed the former Reds reliever who had just been waived by Tampa.  I like both of them.  [SI]

The Marlins sent reliever Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two prospects and a player to be named later.  Lindstrom or Joel Zumaya has the fastest fastball in the business but it’s very flat and he needs a breaking pitch he trusts.  On the other hand, the Marlins probably would have paid him $2 million to stay and the Marlins always feel like they can patch together a bullpen.  (It’s Beinfest’s lone weakness.)  Anyway…  The Astros just lost LaTroy Hawkins, so adding Lindstrom will help.  What did the Marlins get?

Well, there’s Robert Bono, who will turn 21 this weekend.  An 11th round pick, Bono had his best year as a pro pitching in Lexington (A) in the SAL…  He’s got CRAZY good control, but doesn’t strike a lot of people out.  On the other hand, he’s just getting going, so maybe that can improve as he moves a little through the minors.  And, they got Luis Bryan, a Dominican shortstop who just turned 19, and in his first season in the Gulf Coast League batted .340 with some pop in the bat.  One assumes he’ll be ready as soon as Hanley Ramirez is scheduled to become a free agent, huh?  Seriously, though – Bryan could be one of the gems, but this is based on barely 30 professional games…  He didn’t draw a walk in about 110 plate appearances.  [SI]

What do YOU think?

By the way, SI’s Jon Heyman thinks that the three way deal between New York, Detroit, and Arizona could be a win for all three teams.  [SI]

Happy Birthday!

Steve Renko turns 65 today…  I remember Renko with the Expos and Cubs and Red Sox – he was involved in the Andre Thornton deal (ugh!!!), but was a pretty good arm for a lot of years.  His son pitched at the University of Kansas when I started my collegiate broadcasting career – which is where I met Mr. Renko.

Others celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances include: Art Griggs (1884) – a utility player for the Cubs, Jim Baskette (1887), Jocko Conlon (1897), Paul Assenmacher (1960), Rick Wrona (1963), Mel Rojas (1966), and Brandon Jones (1983).

Another, Norberto Martin was born on this date in 1966…  Martin was part of a media show when Michael Jordan was working out with the Sox during his time away from the Bulls.  What I remember about it was how writers compared the sound of the ball hitting the bat when both Jordan and Martin hit.  Martin wasn’t really a major league hitter, but compared to Jordan, he was making solid contact and the ball sounded so different coming off the bat.

Kouzmanoff has been a hot commodity this winter (San Diego Shooter/Flickr).

• It appears as if the Texas Rangers are going to be more active than many originally thought. The Rangers just completed a deal in which they sent veteran righty Kevin Millwood (13-10, 3.67 ERA) to Baltimore for setup man Chris Ray (7.27 ERA, 39 K) and a player to be named. This freed up enough money for them to go out and sign one of their main targets, Rich Harden (9-9, 4.09 ERA, 171 K). Reports say the Rangers are closing in on a deal with Harden and something could be done as soon as tonight or tomorrow.

• The Milwaukee Brewers have officially signed left-hander Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23 ERA) to a three-year, $29.75 million deal. This was a big signing for them as they are very much in need of pitching help and they got one of the stronger arms on the market. And this wasn’t all they did today as the club also came to terms with reliever LaTroy Hawkins (2.13 ERA, 45 K, 19 HD) on a two-year, $7.5 million deal. The Brewers have money and are definitely making the most of it.

Trades and signings are slowly starting to happen more frequently and now that teams have started moving and shaking, I think (and hope) this gets other teams to start pulling the trigger. It always seems to take the first few teams to get the ball rolling.

What a last couple of hours for the Texas Rangers.

In span of what seemed like five minutes, the Rangers traded RHP Kevin Millwood to the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Chris Ray and a Player To Be Named Later. Then, in order to replace Millwood, the Rangers signed RHP Rich Harden to a one-year, $7.5 million contract with an $11.5 million option for 2011.

First, lets talk about the Millwood trade to the Orioles. I really like this move for the Orioles.

Millwood is the pitcher the Orioles needed

Since Millwood is on the last year of his contract and the Rangers will kick in $3 million of Millwood’s $12 million salary in 2010, the Orioles essentially have Millwood on a one-year, $9 million deal.

That is very fair for what Millwood is going to give the Orioles in 2010.

Millwood’s performance over the last two years has been worth around $13 million to the Rangers. For the Orioles to pay Millwood $9 million for one year is not a bad deal at all.

Will Millwood be an “Ace” for the Orioles? Probably not. At the age of 35, I am not sure Millwood has that ability anymore.

But what Millwood does have and what the Orioles need is someone to eat innings for them in 2010. In 2009, only one Orioles’ starter (Jeremy Guthrie) pitched more than 124 innings.

Millwood should have no problem reaching the 170-180 inning mark in 2010.

All the Orioles gave up was a useless Chris Ray. Ray showed flashes of potential in 2006 saving 33 games and posting a 2.73 ERA in 66 innings for the Orioles, but he has not been the same pitcher since Tommy John surgery.

Last year, Ray hit rock bottom posting a 7.27 ERA and a .977 OPS Against in 43.1 innings. His fastball was flat and his control was sub-par at best.

Good deal for the Orioles.

Once the Rangers sent Millwood to the Orioles, they used the $9 million they saved and signed British Columbia native Rich Harden. Harden can thank Brad Penny for this deal.

Penny’s one-year, $7.5 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals set the market for “low-risk, high-reward” pitchers. Harden might be the riskiest of the “low-risk, high-reward” pitcher.

Harden is the biggest tease in baseball

Harden is the biggest tease in baseball. He is the supermodel who has an STD.

Harden is an unbelievable talent, but is always hurt. I mean he is ALWAYS HURT. He has only pitched more than 150 inning in his career once–and that was back in 2004.

I am not going to be one of those people who say “If Harden can stay healthy, then…” He is not going to stay healthy. It’s just not going to happen.

He is a five-inning pitcher at this point in his career, who might make 25 starts for the Rangers in 2010. Does that make the Rangers a better team in 2010? I am not so sure.

While the Rangers ultimately saved about $1.5 million on this deal in 2010, they might have gotten rid of the better pitcher. Millwood’s posted a 2.4 WAR and a $10.9 million value in 2009. Harden posted a 1.9 WAR and $8.2 million value in 2009.

With Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and now Harden, the Rangers are building quite the injury prone team in Texas.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

In the last couple hours, rumors have surfaced that Rich Harden is about to sign with an unknown team. The Mariners had been speaking the most with Harden, so it made sense that it was Seattle who was on the verge of signing the risky ace. Then those rumors started to sound confirmed.

At about 2:24 the rumors shifted, and that it was actually the Texas Rangers who were about to sign the pitcher to a one year deal, with an option for 2011.

Not so fast – cut to eight minutes later. Shannon Drayer reports that it’s the Mariners who are the team now about to sign a contract with Harden.

I will be feverishly hitting the reload button on my new twitter account to see what happens. Rich Harden, IF he can stay healthy, is an ace pitcher. And last season, he did manage to stay healthy. The idea of Felix/Harden is exciting. Then again, so was Felix/Bedard and we all know how well that turned out.

Edit: From Drayer, It looks like he’s going to the Rangers after all that. Too bad.

The (AL) West just got wilder.

Rich Harden has reportedly signed a one-year deal, worth a guaranteed $7.5 million, with the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers will pay him $6.5 million in a base salary for 2010, plus $2.5 million in incentives. He gets $500,000 more if he pitches 155 innings and another $500,000 each at 165, 175, 185 and 195 innings.

There is a mutual option for 2011 worth $11 million with a $1 million buyout. Both the Rangers and Harden have the right to turn down the option for 2011 and have him become a free agent.

The deal is currently pending a physical.

The timing of the deal is no surprise as the Rangers traded incumbent staff ace, Kevin Millwood to Baltimore earlier today in exchange for reliever Chris Ray.

The swap netted the Rangers roughly $5-7 million worth of savings, leaving them with enough money to add one of the three big “risk vs. reward” pitchers on the market.

The club showed no real interest in lefty Erik Bedard, but did seem intrigued by Harden and the player they coveted—and nearly signed—a year ago, Ben Sheets.

Sheets priced himself out of the Rangers plans—and likely limited his overall market—when he announced that he was seeking a deal worth $12 million, the same figure he earned when he last pitched in 2008.

As such, Harden immediately became the most attractive option for Texas.

Harden, 28, was not offered arbitration by the Chicago Cubs, but was a Type B free agent and would not have cost the Rangers a draft pick either way.

The right-hander went 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA in 26 games last season with Chicago.

Overall he has a career record of 50-29 with a cumulative 3.39 ERA and 783 strikeouts in 753.2 innings pitched.

All of that work, however, comes in just 127 career starts spread over seven seasons.

Harden has a checked health history, there’s no denying that fact. He’s never pitched more than 190 innings in a season and he’s only surpassed last season’s mark of 26 starts once, back in 2004 as a 22-year old.

He does, however, offer exactly what the Rangers are looking for to head the club’s rotation.

He’s young, having just turned 28 at the end of November, he’s got experience pitching in the American League West after spending five and a half years with Oakland, and he’s a lot like team president Nolan Ryan, in that he likes to strike people out.

Harden has a career mark of 9.4 K/9 while allowing just 3.9 BB/9. He isn’t going to waste pitches and he’s got all the making of a legitimate ace on the mound.

The Rangers are definitely taking a gamble that he’ll remain healthy and effective while transitioning back to the American League after a year and a half pitching on the senior circuit.

If Harden is healthy, however, he’ll be a dramatic improvement over Kevin Millwood and could give the Rangers the push they need to leapfrog the Angels and Mariners for division dominance.

With that thought in the mind the Rangers are more than happy to welcome Harden back to the wild, wild AL West.