The UAE Derby was founded in 2000 and is run at the Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.  It is a G2 Stakes race, with a purse of $2,000,000.  Making it one of the most lucrative races for 3-year olds.  In the past, winning this race was a sure way to get into the Kentucky Derby, since it had such a huge purse.  That hasn’t changed this year.  It’s still part of the 3rd leg of the derby, and the winner will receive 100 points, with the 2nd place finisher getting 40.  This will virtually assure the top two horses a spot in the derby field, if they so desire.  However, history shows us that horses that run here do not fair well at Churchill 5-weeks later.  In fact, no winner of this race has ever finished in the top-4 in the Kentucky derby.  This year, there are only 2-horses entered that are currently even nominated for the Triple Crown.  They are He’s Had Enough who is trained by Doug O’Neill and Lines of Battle, who is trained by Aidan O’Brien.  In our opinion to this point, neither of these horses has shown any indication that they are good enough to have any impact at Churchill in May, regardless of their performance here.

Now, with that being said, we do understand that this is a Kentucky Derby Prep.  However, we feel that it will have so little bearing on our opinion when it comes to handicapping the derby itself, that we’ve chosen to completely pass on handicapping the UAE Derby itself.  We will watch it, and pay close attention to the winner going forward.  However, since the race itself has had so little impact in the past, we feel it would be pointless to try to spend time analyzing it.  Therefore, we will not be making any selections for the UAE Derby, but we will do a recap of the race, and give our opinion on how we think it will affect the Kentucky Derby in May.  With that being said, we head to Louisiana!!

On Saturday, we’ll be watching the 1,000.000 G2 Louisiana Derby from Fairgrounds Racetrack in New Orleans.  This race features a full-field of 14-entrants that are all looking to earn the highly coveted points that will put them in the starting gate at Churchill.  Included in this field are 2-horses that are ranked on the DerbyWatchDogs top-20.  They are Revolutionary (#13) and Code West (#16).  Let’s take a closer look at this field and see how we think it will play out.

The favorite in this field at 3/1 on the ML is the Todd Pletcher trained Revolutionary.  He’s coming off a hard fought win in the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in February.  In that race, he overcame a very difficult trip and managed to charge from behind to hit the wire by a neck over 2nd place finisher Escapefromreality.  He earned a Beyer of 85 in that win.  In the Louisiana Derby, he’ll keep his Withers jockey Javier Castellano, and will start from the #3 post.  There’s a lot to like about this horse.  He had a very game effort in a difficult run in the Withers.  Just 2-races back, he posted a 102 Beyer over a track rated good at Aqueduct, which shows he has the speed. Still, we have some concerns with him.  He tends to start slow out of the gate, and that creates traffic problems for him.  In the Withers, he was able to overcome that.  But, the field in the Withers hasn’t amounted to much since.  He’ll be facing much better here, and at a short price, we may look elsewhere.

The 2nd favorite is the 9/2 Bob Baffert trained Code West.  Code West is coming of a 2nd place finish in the Risen Star Stakes over this same track.  In that race, he posted a Beyer of 94 while losing by a nose to longshot winner I’ve Struck a Nerve.  He’ll maintain jockey Manuel Garcia for his 7th career start, and attempt to find his second career win.  However, he’s never finished out of the money in any of his starts.  He’s flattened out in speed a bit his last two races, posting Beyer’s of 94 in each, but in our opinion he still has a chance improve.  We also feel like he’s faced better competition to this point than the favorite in this race has.

The 3rd horse on the list is another Todd Pletcher trained horse, Palace Malice who hits the board at 5/1.  Palace Malice was another horse that ran in the Risen Star, finishing 3rd by a 1/2-length and earning a career high Beyer of 93.  For the Louisiana Derby, he’ll see a jockey switch to Edgar Prado.  We do view this as a positive move, as we don’t feel he got the best of trips in the Risen Star.  Still, he was right there at the end, along with a host of others, and still couldn’t overtake the winner down the stretch.  Our biggest concern with this guy is the distance.  Based on what he showed us down the stretch in the Risen Star at 1-1/16, along with his pedigree, gives us no indication he’s ready to stretch it out.

So, that’s it…..  The rest of the field, which includes another 11-horses, is all listed at 8/1 or better on the ML.  That makes this a VERY intriguing race to bet, and to watch.  Especially when you consider that last years winner, along with the winner of the Risen Star this year, both came home at odds of 99/1 or better!!  With that in mind here’s how we’re going to play the Louisiana Derby.

For our Best Bet, we’re going to go with Code West.  There’s a lot of negative talk about the finish of the Risen Star, and how no one could run down a 135/1 longshot.  But remember, we PICKED that longshot in our selections for the Risen Star!!!  We gave I’ve Struck a Nerve MUCH more credit than other outlets, and for that reason, we believe that the Risen Star will actually turn out to be a much better race than many think!!!  Code West ran a great race in the Risen Star.  He was obviously the 2nd best horse that day, and we think he has more in the tank.  He’s set with a ML of 9/2, and we expect Revolutionary to take a lot of money, with the rest being spread out.  Code West will most likely go off as an overlay, and we can’t pass that up on what we think is a very high quality horse.

For our exotic, we’re going to use a $1 Trifecta Box.  We’re going to use the top-3 favorites (Revolutionary, Code West, & Palace Malice) and add the Albert Stall Jr. trained Departing.  Departing is 8/1 on the ML, and will be making the 4th start of his career.  He’s won all three of his previous starts, two of which were here at Fairgrounds.  We believe he’ll be coming from off the pace and the distance should suit him well.  We are a bit concerned with his actual speed, and question how realistic the 97 Beyer he earned last time out actually is.  Still, he’s a nice looking horse that could upset here, so we’re going to mix him in.

Finally, for our Live Longshot in the Louisiana Derby, we’re going to go with Ground Transport, who is 20/1 on the ML.  This horse is coming off of back to back wins over this track, and continues to show speed improvement.  Although his top Beyer is only 80, he’s a horse that likes to sit back and let things happen a bit.  His gate will be a bit detrimental, but his running style should offset that a bit.  He’s shown nothing but bullet works since his last start, and we feel he could be sitting on a big one for trainer Michael Stidham.

So, this is how we’ll be playing the Louisiana Derby:

BEST BET ($10 WIN):                                                  CODE WEST

EXOTIC ($1 TRIFECTA BOX):                                    REVOLUTIONARY, CODE WEST, PALACE MALICE, DEPARTING

LIVE LONGSHOT ($4 WIN, $6 PLACE, $8 SHOW)    GROUND TRANSPORT

TOTAL SUGGESTED WAGERS:                                 $52

We’ll be back soon with a recap of all of the weekend’s races, so stay tuned!!!

Garrett Gomez makes the trip to Oaklawn to ride the Todd Pletcher trainee, Delhomme. Doing his best work on the front end, Delhomme got an easy lead in the Grade II Remsen Stakes last November at Aqueduct, only to surrender late and finish third. In the Remsen, he battled down the lane with Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion – which is why I’m looking at Delhomme in a negative light. Overanalyze came back to run a very flat fifth in the Gotham Stakes, while Normandy Invasion had a horrendous start and rallied to finish fourth in the Risen Star Stakes. As bad a start as Normandy Invasion had in the Risen Star, I feel like he should have been able to take care of business in that situation. Until someone proves me otherwise, I’m looking at the Remsen as a negative key race.

Oxbow is a horse coming out of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds that I was alluding to before. I think too many people have gotten caught up with his 11+ length victory in the LeComte Stakes – a race in which I’m not sure he beat anything of real significance. He’s made steady progress in almost every one of his races, but I think he’s a notch below the top three-year olds at the moment.

Treasury Bill is a nice son of Lemon Drop Kid that should enjoy going two turns for the first time in his young career. As much as I like him, I have a feeling that he’ll end up being a bit of a “wise guy” horse – what are his odds going to look like come post time? Ron Ellis has spoken very highly of this colt, and he must think he has some ability if he’s willing to ship into Arkansas and pursue a spot in the Derby. He’s coupled with Title Contender, who is sure to guarantee that there will be a strong pace for Treasure Bill to close into. He’ll have to show that he has the ability to ship outside of his home state of California, but I think Treasury Bill has a solid chance in the Rebel.

Den’s Legacy is a nice colt, but I think his future is on the grass. After tomorrow’s race, I’d imagine Bob Baffert and Co. will move him to the surface that seems to suit him best. Once he gets on the turf, I think Den’s Legacy has a chance of developing into a solid turf runner.

Super Ninety Nine is on many people’s short list of Kentucky Derby contenders, mine included. He possesses the best speed figures of the group running in the Rebel Stakes, so I’d imagine his morning line of 3/2 isn’t far off from what his odds will be once post time arrives. While his last effort in the Southwest Stakes was as flashy and convincing as wins come, it was his victory in the optional claiming race at Santa Anita on January 31 that impressed me the most. After pressing strong fractions, Super Ninety Nine still had enough left in the tank to draw off to victory by more than three lengths. If he runs back to that race, he’ll be a handful in this spot. He should work out a nice stalking trip, so he’ll have every opportunity to get the job done if he’s good enough.

He may be light on experience and class, but I like Carve in the Rebel Stakes. In his brief two race career, he hasn’t done anything wrong – he’s two for two with both wins coming over the Oaklawn Park surface. Granted, his two victories came in a maiden race and a mid-level optional claimer, but between his running style and breeding, I think Carve could turn into a very nice three-year old. I don’t think people should downplay the fact that he broke his maiden in his first race going 8.5 furlongs – something not many horses can pull off. Now under the training of Steve Asmussen, Carve will be ridden by Corey Nakatani in the Rebel. His tactical speed is without question an advantage, and I anticipate him sitting within two to three lengths of the leaders early on.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he came down slightly from his morning line odds of 15/1, but he should still offer a very solid price, in the ballpark of 12/1 or 13/1. I like Carve to win the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

SELECTION: 2 – Carve, Corey Nakatani; ML 15-1

We’ll start with the Risen Star at Fairgrounds.  This race shaped up to be the big surprise of the weekend, as a 135-1 longshot named I’ve Struck a Nerve ran down the field to take the win, resulting in a huge win payout of $272.40 on a $2 bet.  We are proud to say that we had this 30/1 ML horse as one of our Live Longshot bets in this race, and as a result we were able to cash in on this monstrous payout!!  I’ve Struck a Nerve did what we though he may.  He sat back off of a very slow pace, and waited until the turn for home to use his strong closing speed, picking off all others on the way to the finish line.  He showed he could go the distance, and the 50-points he earned put him in 1st place in the derby qualifying standings with 51.  We believe that this will be enough to get him into the derby, so we’ll be seeing him there.  Although it was a nice run, he did earn a Beyer of only 95 for his efforts.  It was an improvement for him, but he’ll need to show more next time out, which will more than likely be in the Louisiana Derby.

As for the race favorite and our top pick, Normandy Invasion, things didn’t work out well.  He was unable to get a clean break out of the gate from the start, and then had some contact right away that pushed him to the far back of the field.  He tried his best to get back into things along the way, and showed some very nice closing speed once again.  Still, the start proved to be too much for him to overcome, and he ended up finishing a disappointing 5th.  This was particularly disappointing, because he was not able to earn any valuable qualifying points.  As a result he remains with only 4-points, which will not be enough for him to get to Churchill.  He was originally scheduled to only run 2-preps, which would mean his next would be in the Louisiana Derby.  We feel that this would be risky, as he would almost certainly need to finish in the top 3 in that race to get to Kentucky.  He’s still a very lightly raced horse, and he’s coming off a nice layoff.  Because of this, we would like to see his connections give him another prep in the next few weeks.  We still like him as one of our favorites, but he needs to get some points, and perhaps a bit more experience.

Other horses of interest in this field included Code West, Palace Malice, and Oxbow.  These horses finished 2-4th, and all earned valuable points towards Kentucky.  They all produced improved Beyers of 94 or better, and in doing so bettered their chances going forward.  Oxbow earned points for the 3rd straight race, and now looks as though he’ll be part of the field at Churchill in May.  However, his Beyer of 94 was only a slight improvement over the 91 he ran the last time out.  This gives us some indication that he may have reached his peak.  Code West has a similar story, as he ran a career high Beyer of 95, but this was only 1-point better than the 94 he ran last time out.  Palace Malice looked good going around 2-turns for the 1st time out, and his next race will give us a better indication as to how good he is.

At Gulfstream, we had a much more separated field, as the race really came down to the top two horses.  In the end, Orb was able to come out on top by a neck over the favorite Violence to take the win.  Orb earned a career high Beyer of 97 for his victory, and showed a 13-point improvement for the 2nd straight race.  This win defiantly puts him on our radar as one of the top contenders to this point.  We don’t know yet for sure where he’ll be headed next, but early indications are that he’ll only see 1-more prep as well.  The 50-points that he earned for the win should secure him a spot in the Churchill field.

As for the 2nd place finisher Violence, things are not so good.  At first glance, it appeared that he ran a strong race, and came up just short.  He ran a career high Beyer of 96, and the 20-points he received for the 2nd place finish improved his point total to 30.  All indications were that he was in a secure spot to be part of the Kentucky Derby field.  However, news came out after the race that would change all of this.  In the race, Violence fractured a sesamoid bone in his right front ankle.  This injury will not only knock him off the Kentucky derby trail, but it will jeopardize his career altogether.  As a result, the #2 ranked horse on the Derbywatchdogs list, and one of our future pool 1 selections, is done.

As for the rest of the Fountain of Youth field, we didn’t see anyone else really step up at this point enough to take them too seriously.  Speak Logistics ran a nice race to finish 3rd, but we’ll need to see a lot more out of him to consider him a contender.  The top-2 horses were far and away better.  Majestic Hussar set the pace, and earned points for finishing 4th, but he didn’t appear to really like the distance much.  He’s Had Enough looked like he’s had enough.  He finished 5th, and failed to improve in points, or speed.  It’s evident that this horse is not a derby contender.

So, that concludes another week of racing.  We hit some, and we lost some, but in the end we feel like we’re getting closer to sorting out this confusing picture.  At this point, no horse has really jumped out and taken control of things.  We’ve seen a few put up some strong numbers, but we would like to see a horse win back-to-back.  So far, Goldencents is the only one that’s been able to accomplish that.  At the same time, favorites have been disappointing.  There’s definitely been some money to be made by going deep in fields.  This next weekend, we’ll head back east to Aqueduct for the Gotham Stakes.  It looks like it’s going to be another big field, and they’ll be some more ranked horses making their 3-year old debut, so stay tuned!!!

Race 1: #3 Checkered Past

Race 2: #10 Strikin Ike

Race 3: #7 Sunbean

Race 4: #3 Free World

Race 5: #9 Daisy Devine

Race 6: #10 Pass the Pico

Race 7: #7 Optimizer

Race 8: #2 Mark Valeski

Race 9: #3 Dancinginthecircle

Race 10: #6 Palace Malice

Race 11: #5 Tread

Race 12: #1 Z Dager

Race 13: #11 Alba Dabba Doo

Risen Star S. Free Past Performances

The Risen Star is a $400,000 G2 race that will be run at 1-1/16 miles over the dirt.  This year, the race has drawn 14-entries, including several horses that are on our DerbyWatchDogs top-25.  The 5/2 ML favorite, and our top selection as well, is the Chad Brown trained Normandy Invasion.  Normandy Invasion is also our #9 ranked horse, and he’ll be making his much-anticipated 3-year old debut.  His last time out, he finished a very tight 2nd to Overanalyze in the G2 Remsen back in November.  In that race, he posted an impressive career high Beyer of 99, making it the 3rd straight race in which he showed speed improvement.  He’s already shown he can go the distance, and we believe that he’s definitely the one to beat here.

However, he will be facing some solid competition.  Other notable horses include Oxbow (#11), Mylute (#20), Proud Strike, and Code West.  Oxbow is coming off a very solid 11-1/2 length win over this track in the G3 Lecomte where he posted a career best Beyer of 91.  Mylute will be making his 3-year old debut here, and his last race had him winning over this track in a 50k Optional Claiming race back in December.  This win came after he finished 2nd to Goldencents in the Delta Jackpot.  He’ll be making his 8th career start, and he’s hit the board in 6 of his previous 7 races, making him a horse worth paying attention to.  Bob Baffert will send out Code West, who’ll be making his stakes debut.  He’s making his 6th career start, and has hit the board in every race he’s run.  His last time out he posted a strong Beyer of 94 while finishing 2nd to Super Ninety Nine, who just won impressively at Oaklawn in the Southwest Stakes last weekend.  He’s moving up in class, but we like his chances.  The youngster that we like a bit here is Proud Strike.  This Steve Asmussen trained horse will be making his 4th career start, and this will also be his stakes debut.  He’s hit the board in each of his previous 3-races, and finally broke his maiden last time out with a Beyer of 91 here at Fairgrounds.  He’s shown consistent speed improvement each time out, and now adds Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens for the Risen Star.  He’ll have to improve to finish up on top, but we’re going to use him in our exotic.  At 8/1 ML odds, we like him as a Live Longshot as well.  The last horse we’ll be playing in this race is I’ve Struck a Nerve.  This horse is 30/1 on the ML, and he’ll be making his 9th career start.  He’s got to show some solid improvement in speed to compete, but we like his late running style and believe this distance may be just right for him.  If there’s a lot of early pace, this guy could make a difference at the end.  There’s an opportunity to get him at a price here.

So, our selections for the Risen Star are as follows:

BEST BET: ($10 WIN)                                                  NORMANDY INVASION

EXOTIC: ($0.10 SUPERFECTA BOX)                          NORMANDY INVASION, MYLUTE, OXBOW, PROUD STRIKE, CODE WEST

LIVE LONGSHOT: ($4 WIN, $6 PLACE, $8 SHOW)    PROUD STRIKE   

LIVE LONGSHOT: ($2 WIN, $3 PLACE, $4 SHOW)    I’VE STRUCK A NERVE

TOTAL WAGERED: $49

BEST BET: ($10 WIN)                                                VIOLENCE

EXOTIC: ($1 TRI BOX)                                               VIOLENCE, FALLING SKY, CERRO, MAJESTIC HUSSAR

LIVE LONGSHOT: ($4 WIN, $6 PLACE, $8 SHOW)  HE’S HAD ENOUGH

TOTAL WAGERED: $52

All of the races on this circuit will take place at Fairgrounds Racecourse in New Orleans.  It will kick off with the G3 Lecomte Stakes, and culminate with the G2 Louisiana Derby in late March.  The Risen Star Stakes in late February will also be part of this circuit.  In the past, this circuit has proved to be a popular course for 3-year olds with dreams of roses in May.  However, when taking a closer look at the success horses coming out of these races have, it’s evident that it’s not the most productive.

Let’s start with the Lecomte Stakes.  Last year, this race was won by Mr. Bowling.  Although he was a horse on the Derby trail at that time, he quickly fell off.  Mr. Bowling ended up finishing a disappointing 11th in the Risen Star, and 12th in the Louisiana Derby.  In doing so, Mr. Bowling failed to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.  In fact, no horse from the Lecomte made it to Kentucky in May.  This seemed to be the case for most of the Fairgrounds stakes winners.  Even eventual Louisiana Derby champion Hero of Order was left on the outside looking in when it came to Kentucky Derby day.  Hero of Order actually had enough earnings to qualify for the derby, but this upset winner was not nominated by his owners, making him ineligible.  However, there were some horses that represented Louisiana in the Kentucky Derby.  El Padrino (1st Place, Risen Star) & Rousing Sermon (3rd place, Louisiana Derby) both qualified for the run for the roses.  However, it is worth noting that Rousing Sermon was a horse that came from the California circuit in an attempt to qualify for Kentucky, which he did successfully against weaker competition.  Both horses had little success in Kentucky.  Rousing Sermon finished in 8th place ahead of El Padrino in 13th.  Neither horse was ever a factor in the race.  Normally, this could be written off as a bad year, or bad luck.  But it seems to be a constant for the Louisiana circuit.

The fact is, in the past 30-years, this circuit has only produced one Kentucky Derby champion.  That was Grindstone, who won the 1996 Louisiana Derby.  Otherwise, in the same 30-year time span, only 4-other horses that have won prep races on the Louisiana circuit have moved forward to finish in the top-4 in the Kentucky Derby.  Mucho Macho Man won the Risen Star in 2011 and went on to finish 3rd in Kentucky.  Hard Spun won the Lecomte in 2007 and finished 2nd to Street Sense later in May.  In 1993, Peace Rules won the Louisiana Derby and finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.  Earlier, in 1988, Risen Star (who would later have a derby prep race named after him) won the Louisiana Derby and was 3rd in Kentucky.

Overall, we don’t view this as a great record for such a major circuit, with so many derby qualifying points at stake.  Under the new system, a total of 273 points will be divided between the top four finishers in each of the three prep races on this circuit.  For that reason, it makes it necessary for us to pay close attention to the races on this circuit.  However, one of the main handicapping angles that we’ll be using to help us find the winner in May will be the quality of prep races raced.  Sometimes, it’s more important to look at who a horse lost to, than who he beat.  The quality of competition faced can be an invaluable asset on the first Saturday in May.  Looking at the Louisiana circuit as a whole, it appears that this has proved to be a “soft” trail to Kentucky.  Although horses from these preps will make it to the derby, history tells us that me must be very careful when evaluating how effective they’ll be when they get there.

With all of that being said we also have to remember that this year is much different from others.  The use of a point system rather than graded earnings may attract better horses, and better competition on the Louisiana trail.  Right now, the Lecomte looks like it’s shaping up to be a very competitive race, with several young horses on the probable list.  Entries for this race will be listed on Wednesday, and we’ll cover the field in-depth.  However, going forward, we’ll need to see something special to convince us that this trail can produce a successful horse in May.

Grade 2 | 1 1/16 miles | dirt | Fair Grounds | $300,000
3-year-olds 

2011 winner: Mucho Macho Man

1. Mr. Bowling
He out battled Z Dager and Shared Property to win the local prep – the Lecomte Stakes. He started showing some class last year, he scored a 7 length win in the Dover Stakes and hit the board in the Grade 3 Iroquois. He’s got a pretty solid shot in here.

1A. Mark Valeski
He had the misfortune of making his debut against Union Rags, but hasn’t lost since. He comes into this race off a pair of easy wins in sprints. His breeding says he should like the added distance. He as some potential.

2. Adena’s Chance
With 14 starts already under his belt, he’s the most experienced horse in this group.  He’s taken a couple of stabs at stakes company and was a well-beaten 4th in the Sugar Bowl and 10th in the Lecomte. His only wins have come in claiming level races, though his last race was a near miss in an allowance optional claimer. His trainer has been taking an interesting path with him, and seems to race him rather than working him. Adena’s Chance hasn’t had a workout in the last 60 days, but he’s had 3 races in December, 2 in January and is about to make his 2nd start in February.

2B. Hero of Order
A combined entry with Adena’s Chance, he’s had the same sort of training schedule – lots of racing and very little, if any, works. It took him 9 chances to break his maiden  in his first start of the year. He’s coming off a distant 3rd place finish to Adena’s Chance in an allowance, but was able to finish 5th in the Lecomte. He’s an interesting horse.

3. Afford
He broke his maiden with a landslide victory at Hawthorne. He got the show spot in the Sugar Bowl Stakes and comes into this race off a nose victory in an allowance. He’s got an interesting pedigree and is by Derby hero Street Sense and is a half-brother to some pretty durable and talented horses including; Fast Allex, Rags and Unbridled Vicar.

4. Optimizer
Optimizer has been a versatile runner. He broke his maiden on the grass at Saratoga, finished 2nd by 1/2 a length in the With G2 Anticipation, then finished a close 3rd   in the Dixiana on Polytrack. He got thrown to the wolves in his first start on dirt in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, but has been doing reasonably on it since. Despite only getting 1 win out of 6 tries in his career, he’s still got quite a bit of proven class. Being a son of English Channel he’d probably prefer the grass or synthetics.

5. Z Dager
Dager looks like a pretty talented horse, and his breeding says he should be a tough router. He ran just twice last year, tiring in his debut, and grinding out a win in his 2nd try. He started 2012 with a huge 2nd in the Lecomte by just a head. He’s definitely a horse to keep an eye on.

6. Ted’s Folly
He spent most of his 2-year-old campaign on a roll in Oklahoma, finishing out a 6-race win streak with 3 stakes victories. He’s taken down some decent horses, including Reckless Jerry, and No Spin. Ted didn’t show much in his 3-year-old debut and the deep closer didn’t do much running. This will be a good place to see if this Okie will continue towards Kentucky.

7. El Padrino
Padrino has shown some ridiculous talent in his 4 race career. He broke his maiden over a sloppy track by over a dozen lengths and finished 3rd in the Remen in his 3rd start, beaten less than a length for the win. He started the year in a strong allowance beating out Take Charge Indy by 2 and leaving the rest of the field another 13 lengths back in the dust. He’s bred to be a classic horse and sure has run like it.

8. Shared Property
Another versatile graded stakes contender, Shared Property broke his maiden on the dirt – beating out Iroquois winner Motor City – and won the Arlington-Washington Futurity over Take Charge Indy, Motor City and No Spin. He got one more start on the Poly in a mid-pack finish in the Dixiana to finish out 2011. He’s off to a strong start in 2012 with a solid 3rd in the Lecomte after a wide trip.

9. Tizanexpense
He broke his maiden after getting his first taste of real dirt in his 3rd start in an off-the-turf event – a race where his jockey lost his whip and he held on by a game nose without it. He started out the year with a neck victory at the Fair Grounds in another off-the-turf race. If nothing else this horse loves the mud and likes the dirt.

Even with the Fountain of Youth taking 3 big stars, the Risen Star has attracted a pretty contentious group. I’ve been cheering on Shared Property for a while now and don’t feel like stopping, so he’s on my list. As a Take Charge Indy fan I can’t help but want to see El Padrino be something really special. I also quite like Mark Valeski as an underdog. Though if it’s rainy I’d put a couple bucks on Tizanexpense.

My Picks:
Shared Property – El Padrino – Mark Valeski

Risen Star  (1985–1998) was one of Big Red’s best and biggest colts.  He was a strapping 17-hand dark bay out of the mare Ribbon, who boasted the great Hail to Reason in her pedigree.

In 1988, Risen Star began his march toward the Kentucky Derby by winning the Louisiana Derby  and the Lexington Stakes. However, that would be one of the rare years when a filly, Winning Colors, beat the boys and took the roses.  Risen Star finished third in the Derby, but came roaring back to win the Preakness at 1:56 1/5, the second fastest time since Secretariat in 1973.

He then thrilled the crowds at the Belmont Stakes by winning by 14 ¾ lengths as the announcer shouted “He looks just like his daddy!” He posted the then-second fastest time of 2:26 2/5 behind his sire’s record-shattering 2:24.  Today it ranks as the fourth fastest time in the Belmont behind Secretariat, A.P. Indy and Easy Goer.

After the Belmont,  Risen Star’s groom Harold Joseph reportedly said, “You’re the champeen!  Your daddy jumped out of you today!”  Because he’d won two jewels of the Triple Crown, Risen Star earned the $1,000,000 Chrysler Triple Crown Bonus awarded to the three-year-old with the best finishes in the three races.

He won the 1988 Eclipse Award as the top three-year-old colt.  That established him as the first third-generation Eclipse Award winner in the same category, as he followed Secretariat in 1973 and his grandsire Bold Ruler in 1957.

Risen Star was retired to stud after an injury which occurred in his famous Belmont.   Tomorrow, in the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes, another Secretariat descendant will try to strengthen his resume as a Kentucky Derby contender.   His name is El Padrino.  He’s the son of Pulpit, thus a grandson of A.P. Indy and a great-great grandson of Big Red.  The odds-makers list El Padrino as the favorite for the 1 1/16 mile race.

To paraphrase that classic  Mardi Gras  line “Let the good times roll,”  we say “Let the good horses roll!” 

Good luck El Padrino!  Make Risen Star and Secretariat proud!

Here is a link to video of Risen Star’s great Belmont race of 1988.

ALSO CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SECRETARIATSMEADOW.COM FOR NEWS OF THE UPCOMING SECRETARIAT BIRTHDAY PARTY MARCH 31 AT THE MEADOW.

Leeanne Meaadows Ladin

Co-author “Secretariat’s Meadow”

 copyright 2012

El Padrino

Welcome back to the Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes, the final tune up and prep for the Louisiana Derby on April 1. The race has drawn a solid field of 11 horses that will be contending for a piece of the Grade 2 $300,000 purse and another giant step towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16 mile test is headlined by El Padrino versus the top finishers in the G3 LeComte Stakes here at the Fairgrounds on 1/21. In order of finish they were: Mr. Bowling, Z Dager, and Shared Property.

So let’s start right there where a trainer not named Bob Baffert is off to a hot start on the Kentucky Derby Trail. El Padrino, trained by Todd Pletcher, was shipped in from Florida and looks ready to continue where he left off in January – the winners circle at Gulfstream. That race, an Allowance Optional Claiming, was El Padrino’s 2012 debut after a lightly raced yet successful two-year old season. A couple of different factors about the horse and the win has given him even more Kentucky Derby Contender attention so let’s analyze them. 

First let’s look at who he beat. One horse that jumps out at you is Take Charge Indy, a graded stakes tested colt that is also considered a potential Kentucky Derby entry. With Calvin Borel aboard Take Charge Indy began to yield after leading in the stretch before being caught by El Padrino and beat by 2 lengths. While beating Take Charge Indy in the stretch was a nice feather in his cap another feather was much bigger and brighter. Raced at 1 1/16 mile over a track listed as Good, El Padrino fired an outstanding beyer figure that no other horse in Risen Star can claim: 100.

Finally the Todd Pletcher factor also adds to his Kentucky Derby Contender status. The legendary trainer is off to great start in 2012 by scoring two victories already with Algorithms in the G3 Holy Bull and Thunder Moccasin in the G2 Hutcheson. Outside of the derby prep success Pletcher has had a few very impressive days at Gulfstream this year including the day he scored his 3,000^th career win. Overall, even with Bob Baffert making a move, Pletcher is considered to have the deepest and best stable of 3-yr-olds in the country right now.

So that’s where El Pradino gets attention. To support it, his most recent Kentucky Derby Future Line and Odds has him settled in comfortably at 16-1. Not bad for a horse that has yet to win a graded stakes but the talent is there.

Career Results:                                           Recent Workouts – Palm Meadows – Dirt               GP            1/29        ALW OC          1st       2/19        4F           48.91                                                   AQU        11/26      G2 Remsen     3rd      2/13        4F            48.28                                                 BEL        10/29      MSW                1st                                                                                                        SAR         8/20      MSW                2nd                        

Let’s move away from the prized colt that has yet to race at the Fairgrounds and look at few that have. First up is Mr. Bowling, trained by Mr. Larry Jones and winner of the G3 LeComte Stakes. The reason he may still be a long shot for the Kentucky Derby at odds of 75-1 on the Kentucky Derby Futures is because his last win drew a little bit of concern for some.  Mainly it is because of the low beyer he was given in the race: 82. Besides the beyer speed rating there was also questions surrounding the talent that raced in the LeComte.

But that’s horse racing and what better chance is there than The Risen Star to prove your keep. Robby Albarado is scheduled to return to the irons in attempt to send Mr. Bowling to the winners circle back to back for the 2nd time. The biggest advantage Mr. Bowling has over the favorite is that the Fair Grounds is where he has been based since a little bit before the LeComte Stakes and since.

Career Results:                                               Recent Works – Fair Grounds – Dirt                      FG            1/21          G3 LeComte    1st         2/20       Dirt          5F           59.80                    CD           10/30       G3 Iroquois    3rd        2/13        Dirt         5F           1:01.20               DEL         10/08      Dover              1st                                                                                        DEL         8/22         MSW               1st                                                                                    DEL         8/01         MSW               4th                        

Racing 2^nd in the LeComte was Z Dager, Trained by Steve Asmussen. Believe or not this colt enters more lightly raced than the El Pradino so we’re still waiting to see more before we can determine his status along the trail. After finishing 6^th in first career MSW at Churchill Downs in late October, Steve moved him down to the Fair Grounds next where he won for the first time in only his 2^nd career start last Dec.  Having raced only twice didn’t matter much as Asmussen’s instincts paid off when he sent him out against graded stakes company for his 3-yr-old debut.

It says a lot when a trainer makes a bold step towards testing his colt against graded stakes competition without the experience of racing against class. Z Dager finishing 2^nd may mean that Asmussen has high hopes for this colt. Owned by Zayat Stables, the Risen Star will be his 4^th career race. Jockey Shane Sellers will be on top for the 3^rd time after riding last time out.

Shared Property rounds out the top three in the LeComte. The Risen Star is where he will be looking to showcase the form that many believe he may have. Prior to the LeComte were two graded stakes races that ended with two very different outcomes. First was the better of the two, 1^st place in the Arlington-Washington where he beat Take Charge Indy. The big score was followed by a disappointing 6^th in the Dixiana Futurity. Prior to the graded stakes he had only run in a single MSW, a race he won at Ellis Park in Henderson, KY.

So what we have here is 3 viable contenders that have been based at the Fair Grounds since finishing in the money their last time out in the LeComte Stakes. What they are going up against in a visiting El Pradino is a very big test that will take a lot to beat. Although the odds are against them it can still be done. As for the remainder of the field there is still the element of surprise that could make an appearance.

Best bet for live long shots: Optimizer, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and Tizanexpense trained by Mike Maker. Another thing to keep an eye on is the pair of dual entries. The more notable is the Larry Jones tag team which features Mark Valeski alongside of Mr. Bowling. The other pair, 2 and 2B, could be a surprise long shot that I don’t have on my radar but could make me wish that I did.  Without further ado here is your field.

G2 Risen Star Stakes | Purse $300,000 | 1 1/16 Mile | Dirt | Race 11, Post 4:55

Risen Star Stakes and the Kentucky Derby

To date there has not yet been a winner of the Risen Star that has gone to win the Kentucky Derby. In 2002 however, War Emblem ran well out of the money – 6th – before regrouping in the Illinois Derby and going on to win the Kentucky Derby. Inaugurated in 1973 as the Louisiana Derby Trial the race has since be re-named in honor of the 1988 champion, Risen Star, who went on to become the 3-yr-old champion of the year. The race was recently upgraded to a Grade 2 from a Grade 3 which means that the increase in purse money is likely to attract more Kentucky Derby Contenders and bring a more competitive draw to the Louisiana Derby as well.

Past 4 Champs and Trainers

• 2011        Mucho Macho Man               Katherin Ritvo
• 2010        Discreetly Mine                     Todd Pletcher
• 2009       Friesan Fire                            Larry Jones
• 2008       Pyro                                         Steve Asmussen

Good luck to all entries and their connections, we hope to see you return to the 2012 Kentucky Derby trail.

Written by: Little Brink

Likely Winners:

#7  El Padrino (KY) - He’s the number one rated horse on my Derby Top 20 so obviously this is my pick to win the race.  El Padrino’s allowance win at Gulfstream was breath-taking, and I believe he’s on the fast track to the Kentucky Derby.  It’s a huge race for him however, considering the fact that he needs graded earnings in a big way.  Look for him to sit mid-pack and make his big move when turning for home.

#1 Mr. Bowling (KY) and #1A Mark Valeski (KY) - Mr. Bowling won the LeComte stakes at Fair Grounds in his last start and Mark Valeski won a recent allowance here.  The fact that they are coupled makes this a very interesting play seeing as how you usually don’t get this kind of quality with both entries.  I’m on the fence with both of these horses, but after El Padrino this one could be a mad scramble and having two horses is better than one.

#8 Shared Property (KY) - I’ve got him listed as a Kentucky Derby sleeper so my hopes are high for Shared Property in this one.  His trip in the LeComte was brutal, but his outside post draw in this one might not help him much in that area.  I feel like going long is what this horse wants to do, and with a better trip he could be finishing strong when they turn for home.

Exotic Plays:

#4 Optimizer (KY) – Optimizer is another horse that’s on my Kentucky Derby Sleeper list.  Trainer D Wayne Lukas decided to skip the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn because of the mile distance, and wait for this race seeing as how it’s a mile and one-sixteenth.  The extra distance and long Fair Grounds stretch will suit this horse perfectly, so I look for him to have a great chance to hit the board.  If not for El Padrino, I probably would have put him in the likely winners category.  His lack of early speed probably will prohibit him from being able to tackle him at this distance.

#5 Z Dager (KY) – I thought Z Dager got a pretty solid trip in the LeComte, and had every opportunity to win it, but in the end he finished second.  Maybe the added distance is what he needs to pass Mr. Bowling this time out.  His breeding suggests he’ll be fine going long, but I’m not sold on him yet.

Party Crashers:

#3 Afford (KY) - One reason made me put this horse in the Party Crashers category; he’s the son of Street Sense.  Afford’s past performances don’t add up to some of the others in this field, but neither did Castaway’s in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn last week.  Afford will need to step up, but with his pedigree it’s possible that the added distance might help him take that step a little easier.

#6 Ted’s Folly (OK) - I’m willing to give Ted’s Folly one more chance after a flat effort in the LeComte Stakes last time out.  He’s 20-1 on the morning line, and if you don’t like playing short prices, Ted’s Folly might be worth a look.  Hard to ignore his six for nine win record.

#9 Tizanexpense (KY) - He’s two for two over the Fair Grounds track so I threw him in this group.  Plus, he’s bred to go long so I don’t see this distance tripping him up at all.  I’m worried about his outside post though.

Throw-Outs:

#2 Adena’s Chance (FL) and #2B Hero of Order (KY) - These are my lone throw-outs in this race.  I don’t see anyway either will make an impact.

Let’s start in New Orleans where one my last visits left me penniless after running from gentleman’s club to gentleman’s club searching for one of my buddies. Finally, I caught up with him.  He had left the clubs and was enjoying a fine dining experience at one of New Orleans’ finest steak houses.  The problem was after meeting so many “friends” (and I use that term loosely, very loosely) throughout the night, many were dining with him.  If we had not been able to sneak him out the backdoor of the restaurant and provided a sport coat, he would probably be managing the Fair Grounds Race Course by now.  I had to get it back to racing…

A lot of live horses in this one and all have a good shot.  We’ve got the 3rd place finisher from the Breeders Cup, Rogue Romance and Mucho Macho Man who was a disappointing 4th in the Holy Bull Stakes.  Also, The Riot has a live one in the race aboard Machen and Eddie Kenneally brings out his biggest bullet for the spring season with Santiva.

Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), Fair Grounds, $300,000, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles, Saturday, Feb. 19, approximate post 4:46 CST.
PP – Horse – Jockey – Trainer – M/L
1 – Rogue Romance (KY) – J Leparoux – K McPeek – 3-1
2 – Liondrive (LA) – C Sutherland – T Ice – 50-1
3 – Decisive Moment (FL) – K Clark – J Arias – 9-2
4 – Pants On Fire (KY) – J Bravo – K Breen – 6-1
5 – Mucho Macho Man (FL) – R Maragh – K Ritvo – 4-1
6 – Machen (KY) – J Theriot – N Howard – 6-1
7 – Santiva (KY) – M Smith – E Kenneally – 6-1
8 – Action Ready (KY) – R Napravnik – W Calhoun – 12-1
9 – Justin Phillip (KY) – S Bridgmohan – S Asmussen – 8-1
10 – Sorgho (KY) – E Martin – W Bennett – 30-1

I am jumping in the boat as far as the #1 and #6.  I think that both will have some pace to run at coming down the stretch and I don’t think that Mucho will pass the tests that I am looking for.  I think that he is an early bloomer that creates the buzz like an over sized 11-year-old (ie me).

Written By: Fundanichols

It begins with the favourite on the morning line, Rogue Romance. A son of Derby and Preakness winner and national sweetheart Smarty Jones, he caught the racing world’s eye with a snappy last-to-first victory on the Keeneland turf in the GIII Bourbon Stakes last fall, and then produced a sneakily good effort to finish third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his first career start on dirt. Did you get that? Third in the Breeders’ Cup–to Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova no less–in his first career start on dirt. I hear say he’s been training well for his seasonal debut, and nobody can accuse him of not having the genes to go for roses.

One of his major challengers will be Mucho Macho Man, who chased To Honor and Serve in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes last fall and finished a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Holy Bull three weeks ago. A second look at his effort at Gulfstream, however, will show pretty decisively that the horse was very fresh while trying to bull his way to the lead on the outside. He should run much truer to form in his second outing.

But that’s hardly the end of it. Jean Lafitte Stakes winner Decisive Moment is third choice on the morning line, and everyone who’s been near him says the horse’s transition from two to three has been out of this world. Small-time jockey Kerwin Clark, aboard for the Jean Lafitte win, retains the mount and has expressed amazement at his colt’s maturation process.

Next on the morning line at 6-1 each are Machen, Santiva and Pants On Fire. Machen is the local buzz horse, a son of Distorted Humor who is undefeated in two local starts and who will be plenty respected based on the visual impression he made in those efforts. Santiva ran with some of the best while still a maiden last fall, only to break his maiden with a win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over the highly-regarded Astrology. Finally, Pants On Fire was second in the GIII Lecomte Stakes last time out, losing a hard-fought photo finish with winner Wilkinson, who sits this one out in wait for the Louisiana Derby next month. I’m pretty pissed, by the way, that Wilkinson’s not running, and for all the noise I make about oh, for heaven’s sake, they’re not made of porcelain and you are actually depriving them of valuable conditioning you entire industry of morons, you should be able to guess why.

Regardless of my issues, however, the Risen Star figures to be a very good race. We’ll be able to better measure the ability of such classy stakes runners as Rogue Romance, Mucho Macho Man, Decisive Moment, Santiva and Pants On Fire, while Machen will try to prove he belongs and Justin Phillip will attempt a rebound off of his dismal Lecomte performance. Also, Rosie’s riding a 12-1 shot called Action Ready, who last out was third to Wilkinson and Pants On Fire in the Lecomte at odds of 11-1. The Lecomte, by the way, was Action Ready’s second career start and his first on dirt after a debut win on grass. If you happen to be a bettor and you’re looking for a value play, you might want to give him a glance.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has two of the top colts in the nation set to enter Saturday’s Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.  The 1 1/16 mile event routinely draws some of the finest 3 year olds in the nation, and is an official prep race for the Louisiana Derby in March, and the Kentucky Derby in May.

Asmussen sends out the highly regarded Pyro, who was last seen in late October chasing Eclipse Award winner War Pass for place honors in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Monmouth Park.  Since then, Pyro has been training under Asmussen’s watchful eye at Fair Grounds.  Recently Curlin has been training with the colt as they breezed a series of 4 and 5 furlong workouts.  The whispers I’m hearing are that Pyro has looked pretty good so far.   In fact, I’ve seen him ranked routinely around 2nd place on the various Derby watch lists springing up.   Pyro will enter the race as the 3/1 morning line favorite.

Z Fortune is another Asmussen colt that looks to have a promising future.  He won the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on January 12.  He’ll face the place horse from that race in Blackberry Road and look to turn the tables on his stablemate Pyro.  Z Fortune is currently listed as the second choice at 7/2 in the morning line. 

The field for the Risen Star looks like this at the moment.

1. Check it Twice (12/1)
2. Blackberry Road (5/1)
3. Visionaire (6/1)
4. Bonanza (15/1)
5. Unbridled Vicar (15/1)
6. Rich Young Ruler (30/1)
7. The Darp (15/1)
8. Pyro (3/1*)
9. Signature Move (6/1)
10. Peteadoris (20/1)
11. Z Fortune (7/2)
12. Prince Cortes (12/1)

The Risen Star Stakes is the 9th race on the card and is slated for an estimated 4:28 PM post time.   The betting action at Fair Grounds will likely be the play of the day with an “all-Stakes” Pick 6 covering the six Stakes races on the card for what is affectionately referred to as “Louisiana Derby Preview Day”).

I’ll probably cover both of the top colts at this point if I had to think about a multi-race ticket, but if you’re asking me to narrow it down to one horse I’ll take Z Fortune.  It’s not that I don’t like Pyro, because I do.  It’s just that he hasn’t shown what I keep calling the “killer instinct”…..you know (queue up the Rocky music), the “eye of the tiger”  in the stretch!    Z Fortune is undefeated and knows how to win, and personally I’ll take that all day.  There’s a part of me that expects Z Fortune to move up a bit in the Derby contender rankings as the season progresses, and it would be quite a start to his campaign to defeat a highly touted colt like Pyro.  Visionaire, Signature Move,  and Blackberry Road are the other three that have me interested looking over the field at first glance.  The Darp, who is listed at 15/1,  put up a bit of a fight at the top of the stretch with Z Fortune in the Lecomte, so don’t toss him completely out at long odds either. 

It’s still a bit early to get carried away, as the field could change with scratches, which always impact the way a race is run.   This is technically the 6th major prep race on the Derby trail, and we’ve already seen new faces emerge such as El Gato Malo in the San Rafael, Yankee Bravo in the California Derby, Eatons Gift in the Swale Stakes,  and Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Z Fortune is in the list just mentioned as well thanks to his spotless record and victory in the Lecomte.  We’ll have a closer look at the race as the weekend approaches.