5:30pm

I wonder how much of this decline was due to a strong $USD rather than news out of Dubai. I fully expected the PPT to come in and rescue the market today given that such a move would have sent a strong message to the rest of the world, but they didn’t show. Or maybe they did which is why the bottom didn’t fall out.

IWM and XLF did a full day’s worth of volume. SPY & IYR did a healthy chunk, considering the short day.

$NYUPV = 22. That’s a climax buy signal. In fact, that’s the lowest reading on $NYUPV in a year

$NYDNV = 631. That’s not enough.

$NYUD = -609. Should be down around -1400.

$NYAD = -2104. That’s a climax buy signal.

Two of the A/D quartet say expect a bounce on Monday, but two others are not oversold enough, yet. I think two is probably enough to initiate some kind of bounce on Monday, but all four would be better. The bounce, should there be one, might be more like the bounce of Nov 2nd rather than the bounce on October 29th. If there is any news over the weekend, positive or negative, concerning Dubai, then have to expect market to move accordingly.

Intra-day P/C ratio hit 1.11 early, which was apparently enough to halt the sell off, among other factors, I’m sure.

$TRIN reading off the charts. Probably not reliable. I have one spike that went from 46 to 82 and then closed at 17. That 17 is more reliable and does indicate panic selling. $TRIN close at 4.49 says panic selling into the close.

$CYC down 2.10% due gold’s big drop and with it FCX, which is about 6.5% of the $CYC. FCX wasn’t alone, of course.

If the market does react to these oversold conditions on Monday, then that’s great if the market can get some traction in the days following such a rally. But with the market more or less rotting from the inside out, it’s going to be tough to sustain a rally for any length of time.

The commercial hedgers remain 60k shares net short the large contract S&P Futures. Maybe they covered a boat load of short contracts today. Maybe they added to their short exposure.

Looks like more dojis for weekly charts of almost everything. IWM & XLF still in sell mode based on those weekly charts.

Summation Indexes for the $NYSE and the $COMPQ had some pretty heavy down ticks today with their McClellan Oscillators dropping deep into bearish territory.

The wild card is going to be the $USD.

Three of the four indicators for the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ reversed today.

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ:

Unconfirmed, Phase III sell signal.

My preliminary calculation for the SG takes it to -22.9. Wednesday’s reading was -10, which I forgot to put up on Wednesday and which was up from Tuesday’s -15. So that down tick today was very powerful.

This is not the time to try and be a hero. Be careful. Let the dust settle.

8:50pm

Below is the SG chart for the $SPX. It shows a change of direction with a 12 point move south. Based on the movement in the A Indicator, the most sensitive and fastest moving indicator, today’s move is nowhere near a climax move. The $NYUPV and $NYAD may be giving climax signals and since Monday’s seem to be gap up days, those signals may be correct for a one-day bounce, but the SG says that’s about all that can be expected, at least for the moment.

If you really want to see where the big problem is, take a look at $NAA150R over at Stock Charts. Until the deterioration in the Nasdaq, $RUT, and Financials ceases, then you just have to expect more pressure on the markets in general.

“Sister Kinship, I am a Christian just like you so don’t misquote the Bible to me. The Bible is a book of Polygamy both new and old testaments,and anytime a few people object to the Polygamy of the Bible times like Paul they try to give reasons for not having more than one wife to a unlistening society. Without Polygamy Ruth could never have had a husband being a widow! Women in the Bible were all able to marry if they wanted because of Polygamy. So we Sisters interested in our African cultural roots know that Polygamy takes care of all women!”

So entgegnet die Verfasserin dieses Blogs “This Rasta Sister Explains Polygamy” einer “modernen” Schwarzen, die Polygamie als einseitig zur Befriedigung männlicher Bedürfnisse ansieht.

Polygamie hilft Frauen, sich gegenseitig zu unterstützen; stabilisiert Familien; gibt allen Kindern einen Vater, gibt Witwen einen Mann (dabei bezieht sie sich auf die alttestamentarische Rut), sie sieht Polygamie als Möglichkeit für alle schwarzen Frauen, die zu ihren kulturellen Wurzeln in Afrika zurückkehren möchten. Polyandrie (mehrere Männer) dagegen sieht sie als Chaos an: keine Frau weiß dann, wer der Vater ihres Kindes ist.

“Our Polygamy is HOLY because we practice it to benefit all women” – deutlicher könnte es kein Mann sagen, was das Wichtigste an Polygamie ist.

Und dann fragt sie die Frauen, die denken, sie könnten keinen Mann teilen, ob sie sich so sicher seien, daß  sie ihren Mann noch nie teilen mußten?

Um mit einer wirklich positiven Vision zu schließen: “I know that in the Blackamerikkkan household Polygamy means more than 3 sources of income to pool and help all. And in Africa,and in the BIBLE Black women always work,house,field,business of the husband so they contribute always tremendously to the family welfare.We are not desparate,but happy BLACK women who loving work together with our co-wives and wonderful husband to care for the family’s needs,as well as the society’s needs” – Polygamie, um Familien ein stabiles Einkommen zu ermöglichen, um Frauen in Gemeinschaft auch bei der Familien – und Erwerbsarbeit zu stärken.

Welche Frau hat nicht die Einsamkeit in Erinnerung, wenn sie mit einem oder mehr kleinen Kind(ern) alleine zu Hause sitzt? Und er denkt, er müsse möglichst viel arbeiten, um die Familie zu versorgen? Und dabei in einen unlösbaren Konflikt kommt? Ich habe das schon mehrmals erfahren – diese Einsamkeit war ein Hauptgrund der Verzweiflung meiner Frau in der ersten Ehe, die Einsamkeit trieb auch meine zweite Frau oft an den Rand der Verzweiflung. Nach hunderten von Jahren weißer Mission in Schwarzafrika – warum sollten wir mit unserem Kleinfamilienmodell, das bedrohliche Erosionserscheinungen zeigt, uns nicht von afrikanischen Christen helfen lassen? Und unseren Eurozentrismus, der seine Wurzeln mehr in Aufklärung und griechisch-römischer Philosophie hat als in der Bibel, zugunsten der Familien und der Menschlichkeit aufgeben?

Eine weitere Stimme ist die schwarze Hochschuldozentin Dr. Patricia Dixon, die in ihrem Buch “We Want for Our Sisters what we want for ourselves” Monogamie als Ergebnis eines Eurozentrismus ansieht und eine schwarze Ethik der Polygamie zum Nutzen der Frauen entwickelt ,  “The Biblical Case Against Polygyny and for Monogamy” “…how the Bible has been used to affirm monogamy’s compatibility … with Christianity”. Es geht also nicht nur um einen fundamentalistischen Rückzug auf eine alttestamentarische Wortgläubigkeit und Gesetzlichkeit, sondern um, Befreiung, Beziehung, Behütung, Bewahrung, stabile Partnerschaften.

This was just going to be a long post with a warning about three sectors that were already showing signs of weakness, but then this Dubai news comes out.

I know, based on the hits I get, that there aren’t many of you out there, but I hope you’ve been taking seriously all the bad news I’ve been bringing up lately. Except for a failed TZA trade the other day, I’ve been in and remain in cash. I hope you either hedged or raised cash over the past few sessions.

The following is what I was going to post prior to reading the Dubai news.

Sectors to avoid:

Two key sectors and one minor sector have been flashing warning signs this week. The key sectors are the financials and the small caps. This isn’t anything new. The XLF and the IWM have been setting up in these huge M-A patterns. The M-A pattern would have been negated by IWM if IWM was able to first take out 60.68 and then put in a new rally high, neither of which have happened. Barring govt intervention to avoid a major sell off on Friday, it doesn’t appear the M-A pattern is going to be negated any time soon. These two key sectors have been lagging for quite a while and appear to be rolling over. XLF has now closed below its 20MA on the 60min chart for two days, while IWM has only just done that during Wednesday’s session. I’ve been warning about these two sectors for a while, so no change there.

IYR is the next sector to avoid. It has been flashing warning signs since it peaked on the 16th. It’s chart looks crazy with huge gaps every other day but it continues to close below its 20MA on the 60min chart and its 60min chart reveals a down trend in place. IYR put in a rally high back in September and now just can’t seem to get going. The chart below shows the down trend on the 60min chart.

Not necessarily a sector to avoid, but the $TRAN did not make a new rally high this week. As I said the other day, how hard would it have been to get those extra 6pts? Not hard at all and yet this did not happen. So the $TRAN has been lagging and the $TRAN has been doing a good job of warning when the market was getting ready to pull back. The $BDI is rolling, something it does from time to time, and this may be playing into the little bit of weakness that is evident in the $TRAN. And of course, the airlines and railroads aren’t helping much. I mean, you can pump FDX to the moon but you need more than that.

New margin requirements for the 2x and 3x ETF’s were most likely going to cause some artificial swings in the prices of stocks like QLD and TNA on Friday & Monday as traders liquidate shares in order to meet those new margin levels. With the Dubai news, this is just going to be wild.

So this was going to be the post for today. Add this to Wednesday’s post, scroll down a couple of posts to view the chart of IWM with the M-A traced on it, and you have all you need to be on high alert. This Dubai news has already changed this. The market has been weak this entire rally leg as evidenced by a Summation Index that has failed to get above 500. The pro’s have been building a net short position in the futures while off loading equities to unsuspecting retail longs, and bearishness is near a multi-year low. Enter the Dubai news into an already perfect set up, and you have everything necessary for a significant market drop. I’ve been saying since last week that $SPX 1029 was a possibility and that certainly appears to be in the sights right now.

Oh, and I wouldn’t be rushing out and buying the first dip that comes along. That could prove fatal. Watch the A/D quartet. They’ll flash a ‘climax’ buy signal in the days ahead but there is a chance that the first such signal may just be a head fake. Might still be a money making opportunity but only for those who are fast on their feet.

5:50pm

The $TRAN, the $CYC and XLF were the worst performers today with the $NDX and $RUT closing in from behind. It’s the $TRAN, though, that’s going to lead the way. Gets weaker, market gets weaker. Gets stronger, market gets stronger. $TRAN closed just below the 9EMA. Doesn’t mean much now but could in the days ahead if the $TRAN can’t right itself. $TRAN and $CYC could be getting ready to set up an ABC down structure if they close below last Friday’s low in the next couple of sessions.

Weakness in the $CYC due in part to HPQ.

$BDI is rolling over.

It looks to me that the lower BB’s on the $VIX daily chart might start to move up tomorrow. Those BB’s won’t become a factor for a few more days, I don’t think.

The A/D quartet aren’t giving any clues.

$NYA50R, $SPX50R, & $NAA50R all moved lower today. If the market had any real underlying strength and breadth to it, I don’t think they would have done that on an essentially flat day, but what the hell do I know?

The Summation Indexes for the $NYSE and the $COMPQ moved lower today. And the McClellan Oscillators for both have now moved back below the zero line indicating that buyers are leaving the building.

The SG for the $SPX had a lower reading today. I did the math wrong yesterday and said the SG had a reading of -17 when in fact it had a reading of -15. Sorry. Not a big deal because it’s the direction that counts. And today the SG reversed. I’ll do the math later this eventing to make sure I get it right and will post it then. Two of the indicators went backwards today and the B momentum indicator stalled.

Therefore, the SG goes from a transitional phase to:

Weak, unconfirmed, Phase II, sell signal.

Emphasis on weak. As you know by now, when this thing starts to change directions it just doesn’t go straight down. It will meander for a day or two. Almost any kind of rally tomorrow will cause it to move up but, based on all the other issues in the market right now, I think that the die is cast for the next few days.

At about 2:00pm, the $USD started dropping which is the exact same time the markets had that little rally that lasted for an hour or so. Just sayin’.

9:30pm

The SG reading this evening is -18, so a reversal there. I’m still expecting some kind of pull back to develop, though obviously my timing isn’t that good, and I still think that $SPX 1029 is a possibility. Pre-holiday low volume action generally favors the upside. Also, the market needs to confirm the SG with some kind of downward move in the next few days. Until then, anything can happen.

I noticed on Cobra’s page over at Stock Charts, that he uses a ratio with $NYDNV:$NYUPV. On his site he says that a reading greater than 35 means a market bottom. I’ve done a little checking with this ratio and I’m not quite seeing it, but maybe you can.

With the Summation Index still below 500 and now dropping a little, one has to be extremely careful at this juncture. The pro’s can push the market higher if they want, just as they’ve been doing all month, and they know ten times better than me that buyers are not as excited about the market now as they were back in July or October. Those pro’s will be happy to off load shares to you at current levels, if only you’d just step up to the plate with an offer. Then they’ll either short the market with your money or sit on that money until issues get re-priced to attractive levels.

Just be careful. If things continue to deteriorate covertly then they’ll doubtless deteriorate overtly soon enough.

Oh, and was today’s big drop a reaction to yesterday’s extremely overbought $TRIN? Hard to say.

$NYUPV
$NYDNV
$NYUD
$NYAD

So the rut is over—at least the chasing phase.

Heading into the woods for three hunts this weekend, I saw zero doe. My guess is the bucks wore them out this last couple of weeks, and the doe, if they decide to move, aren’t going far. I saw three bucks on the weekend, one small buck that was well out of range to decipher how many points. The other two were close. Walking into my Saturday night evening stand, I kicked up a good beck bedded. He didn’t spook. Instead, he waddled away with his tail down in, what seemingly looked like, no hurry.

That evening, I took scent sticks with me to burn off an estrous extract—one of those Tinks smoking stick packages. When lit, the Kabob skewer-like sticks, release smoke and the wind carries the scent. It’s very potent and when draped on your hands, you can’t wait to take a shower. But, they’re pretty effective, and they worked that night.

At about quarter to five, I heard the sound of leaves crunching above me off a ridge. I knew before I saw the deer, it was a buck. They have that certain stride and noise through the woods that’s distinct. He came upwind of the scent, but nonetheless I could tell he was on the prowl. He was a beautiful 7-point, would-be 8, except his one Brow Tine was busted. He came within 15 yards and crossed behind me. He proceeded down a hill and into a flat where he checked a preexisting scrape, rubbing his head on a low limb and pawing away at the dirt. I bleated and he listened, but he wasn’t interested. He turned and contintued to walk, cruising on a late afternoon stroll.

The deer are tired and with gun season getting underway around the Northeast, these deer are going to feel pressured. They’ll begin to move too as the temperature drops within the next couple weeks. It’s been relatively mild and dry this Nov., optimal conditions for these deer to lay low and camp out.

I’m sad I missed the chasing phase, but I know that the bucks are still looking for does who are coming into heat late. The rut is almost over, but that doesn’t mean hunting season ends.

Frågar du mig har den traditionella annonsen fortfarande en plats  - OM:

- du har en kanal att sätta den i som når din målgrupp. Ex – din målgrupp är nyföretagare i Kronoberg och kanalen är ett nyhetsbrev som skickas ut till endast dem, med massor av matnyttig information för nyblivna företagare.

- Den kan förväntas ge en bra ROI  - return of investment. Överdrivet exempel: En annons som kostar 20 000, om du vill sälja anteckningsblock för 20 kr st till nystartade företag i Kronoberg, är knappast en rimlig investering. Då skulle man ju behöva sälja 1000 block till en förhållandevis liten målgrupp för att överhuvudtaget täcka kostnaden.

- Det inte är för många som vill sälja samma sak som du till samma målgrupp, i samma kanal.

Mycket annat spelar såklart roll om en annons ska bli en succé eller inte, men min första annons får åtminstone godkänt på alla tre punkter ovan och jag hoppas på att förvalta mitt utrymme väl. Vad tycks?

I do believe it’s officially that time of the semester where everyone gets cranky, we’re all tired, and we all feel like we’re just … stuck.  I certainly do.  It’s a time when there are loads of assignments due, gobs of exams to study for, and presentations to give.  We’re all feeling the stress and it’s showing.

Time to take a deep breath and settle in for the next 3 weeks.

I’ve also decided not to blog about my recent patient — it’s just too difficult to try to explain what was going on without violating this person’s privacy.  In any event, it was a very educational 2 days of clinical on Wednesday and Thursday.  I learned a great deal about people.

One funny/disturbing/typical story:

It was near the end of our shift, and we had about 5 minutes until post-conference (where we all meet in the staff lounge and discuss our patients — we’re practicing presenting a patient in case the doctors making rounds need to know from us what’s been happening with our patient).  I should preface the rest of the story by saying that, on our floor, we each have one patient for the duration of our shift, and only one.  Not all of the patients have a student assigned to them.  Anyway, I was standing at the end of the hall doing some last-minute computer charting of my patient, and out of the corner of my eye I see a hard-charging person.  I glance up and it’s the mean, nasty, scowling nurse who gives off bad vibes.  She’s moving quickly, and she looks up to my right, and I notice that the room nearest me has its call bell (white light) blinking, but I don’t hear it ringing.  Normally, the student to whom this room was assigned should have been notified and gone to see what the call bell was.  Of course, it wasn’t a student — it was AngryNurse.

She looks at me and says, with a decided sneer at my uniform, “What … students don’t answer call bells anymore?”  I replied in an even voice, “I’m sorry, I was charting and didn’t even see or hear the call bell for that patient’s room.”  To which she huffed and puffed a bit, and said with disdain, “Well, when I went to nursing school we would go running for every call bell, and wouldn’t be caught dead not answering one.”

Well.  Excuuuuuuuse me (said in a haughty tone).  I really really really really wanted to respond to AngryNurse, but I bit my tongue.  I’ve discovered there are definitely 3 types of nurses on our floor when we’re there:

1. Awesome Wants to Teach Nurse:  he/she seems to enjoy us being there; doesn’t mind telling us why he/she does things a certain way; says “hello” and “goodbye” to us; is happy that we’re helping them at all with mundane tasks.
2. Indifferent to the World Nurse:  he/she seems to kind of drift along aside the students, and doesn’t seem to care either way what we do; teaches if it’s a last resort, but prefers to just do things on his/her own and not involve us; says “thanks” when we do something, but doesn’t talk to us otherwise.
3. AngryNurse:  seems to want to slaughter us and send our bones and tendons and organs to the farthest reaches of the globe and proudly bellows how bitter he/she is to the world and generally makes us want to throw up all over the nurses’ station.

I spend so much time taking care of other people and other things, I often forget to take care of myself. In the past few years I have yoyo-ed in weight, forgotten all about skin/hair care, and generally stopped doing anything that could help my appearance. It wasn’t until I saw myself on TV a few weeks ago that I relized how bad I have actually let myself get.

Until tonight. Tonight I am deciding that I need to make myself a priority again. This doesn’t just include things to help my appearance, but things that help me be me again. Taking the time to take a bath, or go on a walk, or just read.

And while not a lot of people would agree with me, I do think that if you take steps to look nice, you will feel nicer too. Tonight I took a long bath and gave myself a pedicure and finally got around to plucking my eyebrows and even this makes me feel so luxurious and glamourous. I need to keep doing things that help me feel better about myself because that will just make me happier, which in turn make the people around me happier.

How do I keep forgetting that??

Well, I started following Dita von Teese on twitter. I think just reading the things she does and the incredible life she leads will help me remember to do what makes me happy and keep being me bc she is so true to herself and has become famous doing what she loves – no matter what anyone thinks. I also like to see how glam her life is and try to bring little pieces of the gracefulness and thoughtfulness of what she does into my life. So shout out to Dita – thanks for living your life and inspiring others to add a bit of glam into theirs.

As I have said for the past couple of days, I’m expecting a pull back to develop over the next few sessions. I don’t think this is going to be the end of the world. I do think there is a very good chance that the $SPX could revisit the 1029 area from the November 2nd low, especially in light of the fact that the 20MA on the weekly chart is right now at 1029, but I reserve the right to change my view as market dynamics change.

The market has been very predictable since the August peak. It pulls back starting around the 20th of the month, takes back 50% to 70% of recent gains, then bottoms around the first of the next month, only to rally all over again. But as Pee Wee Herman said, “First your mind plays tricks on you, and then you play tricks back.” Or, maybe it will be different this time. Instead of a pull back that draws near the previous low, maybe this pull back will take out the low and keep on going. And of course, the market need not pull back any further. It could rally from current levels. Except that it is a little different this time.

This chart of the $NYA50R clearly shows a lack of participation with the latest market peak accomplished with 68% of stocks within the $NYA being above their 50MA’s. This is the kind of behavior you expect to see near market bottoms but not in an index that is just four days removed from a new rally high. It clearly shows weakness within the index. Compare the current 68% reading to the May, August, September, and October peaks where at least 84% of stocks were above their 50MA’s indicating broad based interest and buying. This chart looks more like the late June peak that led to the July lows. And that’s what I think we’re going to see.

And if you really want to be bothered, take a look at the $NAA50R.

This rally off the March lows has been broad based. It has been led by Big tech, small caps, transports, the cyclicals, & financials, and as the tide rose, the rally lifted all the other ships. But we now have trouble in two key sectors, the small caps and financials.

The $RUT, $BKX, & XLF all gave ’sell’ signals on their weekly charts in late October, based on the full stochastic dropping below 80 and a bearish cross on the MACD, along with RSI 14’s that have peaked. Despite the action over the past two weeks, these sell signals persist. While the rest of the key sectors put in or nearly put in new rally highs in the last week, neither the small caps nor the financials did. This sets up an ABC down structure in the $RUT and XLF, etc. The same could be said for the $SOX, but it’s just not a leading sector anymore. Look at the chart of the daily IWM a couple of posts below this one for a hypothetical trajectory for IWM.

Adding fuel to the pull back theory are the weekly charts of the $NYA, $SPX, $INDU, $RUT, and IYR, which all have shooting star dojis, or at least the potential that the weekly doji is in fact a shooting star. You can clearly see on the $NYA chart below what has happened in the recent past when these shooting stars appeared. Also note that the PPO has a bearish cross, the full stochastic is below 80, and that the RSI 14 has broken its longer term trend line and that it is rolling over now and headed for the shorter term trend line.

So you’re thinking, “A pull back to $SPX 1029? Wow! What a buying opportunity.” But what if it’s different this time?

Those commercial futures hedgers are still net short 60k contracts. They took on 3900 new long contracts while adding 2500 new short contracts as of November 17th. They’ve gone from about 50k net short a few weeks back to 62K net short last week, to this week’s 60k net short position. Clearly they don’t think the worst is behind us. And neither do mutual fund investors.

Mutual fund investors are fleeing equity based mutual funds and flocking to bond-based mutual funds in record numbers. According to this article from Morningstar, the exodus began in earnest during the month of September and most likely continues to this day. Mutual fund investors who went through the trauma of a 401K meltdown regardless of whether they stayed in the market or not apparently have little appetite for any more risk. They would rather invest in a safe though low yielding bond-type fund rather than invest in an S&P Index fund. And who can blame them since many are baby boomers nearing retirement? They probably didn’t sleep well during the market meltdown and they’re simply not going to risk their retirements again. But their monthly contributions are much needed if the market is going to go higher or at least go higher and stay up there. If this exodus is continuing and if it continues, then end of the month window dressing by mutual fund managers just won’t be the same.

Which brings me to the $TRAN. During this week’s rally, the $TRAN failed to make a new rally high while all of the other majors, the $SPX, $NYA, $COMPQ, & the $NDX, did. The $TRAN only missed a new high by about 6pts, but how hard would it have been to get that? This is the first time in quite a while that the $TRAN did not lead the pack to a new high. Maybe this doesn’t mean much right now but we’ve had divergences in the financials, the small caps, and the semis and you just have to wonder if the $TRAN might be moving into that camp.

Finally, or until I think of something else, there’s the $CYC. The Cyclicals Index has been this rally’s poster child. Up 192% from the March low. The stocks within the Cyclicals Index represent a cross section of U.S. manufacturing, finance, transportation, technology, chemicals, etc. These guys are the core of the economy, have been pumped to the moon, and they need to be watched closely. If profit taking takes place in these core stocks, then the decline that I’m expecting could go a bit deeper than even I’m expecting.

So the SG’s are giving mixed signals and have entered a transitional phase. The markets appear stretched with fewer and fewer stocks participating. The Summation Indexes have rolled over, not something you want to see considering they just turned up a few days back, and the McClellan Oscillators are below the zero line and are pointed straight down. The VIX is still quite a ways above it’s lower BB and the A/D quartet, $NYUPV, $NYDNV, $NYUD, & $NYAd, are in flux. This is no time, IMHO, to be adding to long positions, and shorting this freight train is dangerous. If I was one of the lucky people who bought in March, I wouldn’t be too worried unless $SPX 1029 is taken out with gusto. Otherwise, this is just a re-pricing pull back and buying opportunity in progress.

Keep an eye on the $USD. There certainly does appear to be a correlation between dollar strength or weakness and the market.

Have a good weekend.

4:20pm

I’ll be back later with more stuff, but in the meantime, here is a chart of IWM showing an M-A pattern. This is pure speculation on my part. IWM could rebound tomorrow and climb back over the peak of 60.68, which would negate this pattern. Until then, this pattern may offer some insight into where IWM is going.

This same pattern can be seen on the $SOX and not as clearly on XLF & $RIFIN.

Here’s the direct link.

_______________________________________________________
6:40pm

The SG for the $SPX dropped from yesterday’s -28 reading to -30 today. The B Indicator is showing a considerable loss of momentum.

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX & $COMPQ:

Entering transitional phase.

I’ve been questioning this entire rally due to the lack of participation as evidenced in the $SPXA50R, $NAA50R, & $NYA50R so I think the SG’s and the markets have peaked for now. Yesterday the $TRAN and FDX gave a heads up and today they sold AAPL, destroyed INTC & $SOX, and now they’ve taken DELL to the woodshed.

The $SPX hasn’t taken out a major swing low since the June decline. Because this rally just never had much substance, I think the $SPX may have to visit 1029 before it can move higher. I know that would make those futures traders happy.

$NYUPV, $NYDNV, $NYUD, & $NYAD are oversold to the point that there could be some kind of a bounce tomorrow, but they are not so oversold that the bounce, should it happen, will amount to much, especially since it will most likely be sold into heavily. I do find it interesting that these gauges gave a sell signal on the 9th when the $SPX was at 1093. I wasn’t sure at the time if that sell signal would be meaningful or not and I’m still not sure, but I do find it interesting especially considering where the $SPX closed today.

The Summation Indexes have rolled over and the McClellan Oscillators are below the zero line. The Summation Indexes never really did get going during this rally phase, another reason I think we could see $SPX 1029 again.

9:20am

Just a couple more concerns.

$TRAN: Look at the volume pattern in the $TRAN. Since the Buffet/BNI bounce, the $TRAN has been rising on ever decreasing volume.  Compare that to other rally legs, especially the September leg, and this lack of volume raises a red flag. There is a possibility that the $TRAN may be topping out around the current levels. FDX lost its leadership role last week and then regained it. If FDX should start to roll today or anytime soon, that will be the canary in the coal mine.

These same bothersome volume patterns are visible for the $NYA, $SPX, $INDU, and then there’s the volume problems with IWM and XLF that I mentioned yesterday.

IWM: IWM should NOT close at 59.99 or less before it closes at 61.01. IWM looks to be under pressure this morning but it’s the close that will matter most. If it can close green and especially if it can close above 60.51, then there would be a good chance that it will close above 61.01 before the week’s out, but a break into the 59’s would spell trouble.

IYR: IYR should stay above 42.99.  If it should break into the 42’s, then there is 9EMA support at 42.95 but if it breaks decisively into the 42’s, then the 9EMA probably won’t offer much support.  The 20MA on the 60min chart is sitting right at 43.78 and would offer some resistance if IYR starts to move up. If IYR can break above 43.78, then all’s well. If it can’t, then it could drop into the 42’s.  That’s still a ways below where it’s trading in the PM and that market maker is a crafty S.O.B. so you just never know what’s going to happen with IYR until the close.

Only the paranoid survive.

5:50pm

Slight uptick today for the SG for the $SPX. The key is that it is headed in the right direction. Yesterday’s reading was -38 and today’s is -34 so there is a slight loss of momentum but not enough to cause concern. As long as the SG’s continue to move up, then buying dips should work.

I want to point out that both SG’s will most likely only go from ‘partially’ confirmed to ‘fully’ confirmed at about the time this particular rally leg is nearing its end. That has been the case in the past and this isn’t likely to change.

Current SG status for the $SPX:

Moderating, partially confirmed, Phase IV, buy signal.

Two indicators on the SG for the $COMPQ had bullish confirmations today.

So the current SG status for the $COMPQ is:

Moderating, partially confirmed, Phase IV, buy signal.

The $TRIN indicated yesterday that there would be a pull back today. The pull back didn’t last very long nor was it very dramatic, but it did happen as expected. Volume was light all around but you can really see a major drop off in volume in the IWM and the XLF. Really need those two to stay in step or get back in step. I want to see IWM close above 61.01 before it closes below 59.99. I’d be very concerned about this rally if IWM closed below 59.99 any time this week and wasn’t able to break back through that round # resistance level. I am keeping a close watch on those levels.

I may have some more later if I see anything troublesome. So far I don’t really see anything except for the fact that IYR had a meltdown at the close. Bears scrutiny.

* * * *

7:40pm

IYR. I’m not sure why, but almost all of the top stocks within the index that IYR tracks took a pretty big hit today. The sell-off started right around 3:00pm. There must have been some news, though I don’t know what that was.

Take a look at SPG, VNO, PSA, NLY, BXP, HCP, EQR, to name a few. REIT’s were down 1.7% and was the worst performing sectors today.  Interesting because $BKX and $KRX were some of the best.

Take a look at $NAA50R and $NAA50.  The $COMPQ is lagging the other major indexes, again, and I can only imagine what the $RUT would look like if there was a symbol available to track this same kind of data. It’s not the end of the world, but the $COMPQ is going to have to pick up the pace or jeopardize this rally leg.

And the $USD was up today.

Lite bilder från dagens träning i Veberöd. Kanel, Rut och Wilmer tränade för fullt tillsammans med sina mattar. Jea övervakade det hela och jag tror att alla var nöjda när vi efter träningen körde till Johannas Café och fikade!!

Wilmer hade en såndär dag när allt bara funkade!! Tackochlov att dom dagarna finns så man orkar fortsätta träna. Igår motivationstränade jag linförighet med boll och idag kändes det som att det hade gett resultat!! Då blir jag glad!!

As I posted a few days back, one or more of the oscillators for the SG on the $SPX is about to have a bullish confirmation. It could/should happen early in the week. I’m not sure it’s going to happen and I’m not sure it’s going to mean much.

As everyone knows, there are some serious problems going on within the market today. This last rally leg has occurred on increasingly lighter volume. The financial sector and the small caps are not participating overtly and the $COMPQ is not participating covertly. This past Thursday, the 11th, the $COMPQ drew within 11pts of its rally high of 2190 set on 10/23, but did so with only 43% of the stocks in that index holding above their 50MA’s. Look at the $NAA50R and notice that only 38% of the stocks within the $COMPQ are currently above their 50MA’s. There is just no participation. The $COMPQ is being carried up by fewer and fewer stocks. You could say that this is what happens at bottoms and maybe that’s what’s going on, but I’m skeptical.

And don’t stop with the $COMPQ. Take a look at the $SPXA50R, the $NYA50R, and the $NDXA50R and you will see the same kind of disparity. I can only imagine what I would find if there was a way to track similar data inside the $RUT.

How hard is it to pump the $INDU with its 30 stocks? Not hard at all. How hard is it to pump the $NDX with its 4 stocks? Not hard at all. It’s no simple feat to push the broader indexes to new highs with fewer and fewer participants, and yet it is being done. How long can this go on? Probably as long as the pro’s want it to go on. But one thing is certain. Either participation improves or the markets will collapse under their own weight. Period.

And then there’s the COT Report. According to the latest report, the S&P large contract commercial hedgers unloaded 5,504 long side contracts but only covered 1,467 of their short contracts leaving them net short, as of this past Tuesday, 62K contracts. That is the largest net short position they’ve had in quite some time. It may be the largest net short position they’ve had since the late May or early June. I think that is the case but you can check for yourselves. Essentially it’s like this: The more the big commercials sell, the more they make. It is a win/win situation for them but clearly they are betting more heavily on the short side now than they are on the long side.

And then there’s the $. If you ever hear one of the Fed Heads say that a weak $ has been good for the economy, then that will be the day the $ starts to strengthen. Until then, expect the $ to weaken further and as the $ weakens, our markets tend to go up. But then there are all those big players in the futures who have bet that the $’s slide is near its end. Time will tell.

I have added several new tools to my tool kit. One is the Summation Index and I find that I’m becoming more and more concerned with the lack of confirmation by the Summation Index with regard to this last rally leg. In the past, the Summation Index has confirmed each of the rally legs by making an abrupt U-turn and heading up with the rally. It isn’t doing so this time. It tries but just can’t seem to get going. That should be no surprise with the lack of participation. This has to change…soon. The Summation Indexes for the $NYA and the $COMPQ have to break out of their sideways paths one way or the other, up or down. If they don’t very soon head up, then they’re just going to head down, with the market. I am watching the Summation Indexes like a hawk and you should be, too.

Along these same lines, I have started using Bollinger Bands with the $NYMO and the $NAMO. As interesting as the $VIX with BB’s.

I’ve also added the following tools:

$NYUPV
$NYDNV
$NYUD
$NYAD

I mentioned a couple of these the other day and this weekend I’ve been back testing them to the first of the year. They give some very interesting signals. I have had trouble in the past calling climax signals on the SG’s but with these tools I don’t think I’ll be having that problem anymore.

I highly recommend you go to Stochcharts, pull up landscape-size charts of each of these along with a chart of the $SPX and establish parameters for extreme readings which you will find lead to either buy or sell signals. One thing I will tell you about $NYUPV is that early in the year sell signals came when it would hit the 1600 area or higher, but after the middle of May sell signals started hitting when the $NYUPV hit the high 1200’s to low 1300’s and even in the 1100’s. I’m not exactly sure why this is.

I have found that when two or more of these gauges hit extreme readings, then the buy or sell signal that is generated is very powerful. Many times, if not every time, the buy signals come after heavy distribution days where the indexes come down hard on volume and close at the lows. September 1st and October 1st come to mind. Inversely, the sell signals tend to come when the market rallies hard and closes up at the highs. You can easily see this in the last week of October through to the close on November 13th.

As of right now, three of these gauges gave ’sell’ signals on November 9th, $NYDNV, $NYUD, & $NYAD. It will be interesting to see if these signals prove to be correct and if they lead to a buy signal in the days ahead.

Lowry’s Data is updated.

Utilizando la clase para validar RUT que mostré en esta entrada cree un sencillo validador de RUT para los formulario de symfony 1.2

Por convención he creado la clase sfValidatorRut.class.php en el directorio /lib de la raíz del proyecto. Aquí está el código de esta clase:

<?php
/**
 * Validador de RUT para symfony 1.2
 *
 * @author Esteban Martini Muñoz
 * @version 1.0
 */
require_once dirname(__FILE__).'/../Rut.class.php';
class sfValidatorRut extends sfValidatorString
{
  public function configure ($options = array(), $messages = array())
  {
    $this->addMessage('invalid', 'El formato del RUT: %value% no es válido.');
    $this->addMessage('bad_dv', 'El dígito verificador del RUT es incorrecto.');
    $this->addMessage('required', 'RUT es requerido.');
  }
  public function doClean($value)
  {
      $clean = ltrim(rtrim(($value)));
      $rut = new Rut();
      if (!$rut->verificaFormatoRut($value))
        throw new sfValidatorError($this, 'invalid', array('value' => $value));
      else if(!$rut->isRut($value))
        throw new sfValidatorError($this, 'bad_dv', array('value' => $rut->getDV($value)));
      return (string)$rut->formatoUser($value);
  }
}

Su uso es igual al resto de los validadores de symfony sólo basta asignar el tipo de validación al campo a verificar de nuestro formulario.

//...
public function configure()
{
  $this->validatorSchema['rut_usuario'] = new sfValidatorRut();
}
//...

Espero les sea de utilidad.

Validar los RUT (Chilenos) es una tarea bastante común y deben haber cientos de implementaciones… esta es la mía . Para esta implementación se considera que el RUT y el Dígito Verificador de éste forman, siempre, parte de la misma cadena de texto, por ejemplo: 11.111.111-1 ó 1111111.

A continuación el código fuente debidamente comentado.

<?php

/**
 * Valida y formatea RUT en distintos formatos.
 * Esta clase considera que los RUT son manejados como sólo una cadena de texto, es decir,
 * incluye SIEMPRE el digito verificador.
 *
 * @author Esteban Martini Muñoz
 * @version 1.0
 *
 */

class Rut {

  const FORMATO_CARNET = 1; //Ejemplo 12.345.678-9
  const FORMATO_CARNET_SIN_PUNTOS = 2; //Ejemplo 123456789

   /**
   * remueve caracteres que actuan como separadores dentro del
   * RUT (espacios, puntos, guiones,etc)
   *
   * @param string $r RUT
   * @return string RUT sin caracteres separadores.
   */
  public static function formatoUser($r){
      return $r = preg_replace('/(\.)|(\-)|[ ]|[\,]|[\']/','',$r);
  }

  /**
   * Crea un arreglo asociativo separando el RUT y el dígito verificador.
   * @param string $r
   * @return string[]
   */
  public static function splitRut($r)
  {
    //sacar puntos, guiones, espacios, etc:
    $r = self::formatoUser($r);

    $dv = substr($r,strlen($r)-1);
    $r = substr($r,0,strlen($r)-1);

    return ($rut = array("rut"=>$r, "dv"=>$dv));
  }

  /**
   * Retorna el RUT sin dígito verificador
   * @param <type> $rut
   * @return <type>
   */
  public function getRut($rut)
  {
      $r = self::splitRut($rut);
      return $r["rut"];
  }

  /**
   *
   * @param <type> $rut
   * @return <type>
   */
  public function getDV($rut)
  {
      $r = self::splitRut($rut);
      return $r["dv"];
  }

  /**
   * Formatea el RUT en el formato específicado, se asume que incluye DV
   * @param string $rutCompleto
   * @param integer $formato
   * @return string
   * @example getRutCompleto(163580357,FORMATO_CARNET)
   */
  public static function getRutCompleto($r, $formato = 0){

      if(strlen($r)==0)
          return '';

      $rut = self::splitRut($r);

      if($formato == self::FORMATO_CARNET){
        return number_format($rut["rut"],0,'','.')."-".$rut["dv"];
      }
      else if($formato == self::FORMATO_CARNET_SIN_PUNTOS){
        return $rut["rut"]."-".$rut["dv"];
      }
      else{
          return $rut["rut"].$rut["dv"];
      }

  }

  /**
   * Verifica que el formato del rut sea tipo usuario (123456789)
   * y tenga un largo entre 6 y 9
   * @param <type> $r
   * @return <type>
   */
  public static function verificaFormatoRut($r)
  {
      //sacar puntos, guiones, espacios, etc:
      $r = self::formatoUser($r);

      //extraer el rut sin dv:
      $rut = substr($r,0,strlen($r)-1);

      return (preg_match('/^[0-9]+$/', $rut) && preg_match('/([kK0-9])$/',$r) && strlen($rut)>5 && strlen($rut)<9);
  }

  /**
   * Verifica que un RUT tenga un dígito verificador válido.
   * @param string $r
   * @return boolean
   */
  public function isRut($r)
  {
    $rut = self::splitRut($r);
    return (strcasecmp($rut["dv"], self::calculaDV($rut["rut"])) == 0 ? true : false);
  }

  /**
  * Calcula el digito verificador de un RUT.
  * Fuente: http://www.dcc.uchile.cl/~mortega/microcodigos/validarrut/php.php
  * @author Luis Dujovne
  * @param int $r  Un RUT sin DV
  * @return char(1) el digito verificador del RUT
  */
  public function calculaDV($r)
  {
    $s=1;
    for($m=0;$r!=0;$r/=10)
      $s=($s+$r%10*(9-$m++%6))%11;
    return chr($s?$s+47:75);
  }
}
?>

Se aceptan comentarios, correcciones, optimizaciones, etc.

Saludos!

4:20pm

Not a good day for me. I hedged my TNA with some TZA and ended up selling both. I’m certainly not a very good trader. No question there.

The SG may flip up today. Sure seems that way. These up and down moves are the hardest for me to interpret. There has been a lot of volatility lately and that really messes with the main indicator.

Take a look at these. They may prove to be very helpful in the future picking turning points in the market. You can find them at Stockcharts.

$NYUPV & $NYUD

I’ve been playing around with these the past few days and they look promising.

I’ll have a chart up in about an hour. Maybe the SG’s will produce a sign of strength today. Just have to see.

* * * *

Very slight upticks on all four of the indicators for both SG’s today. Hardly a sign of strength. The rally is not building on strength and so it has to be eyed suspiciously, IMHO.

I have some errands to run and won’t be back for several hours. I’ll try to put up a chart then.

8:50pm

All I can say is that the SG for the $SPX is moving up. It is not moving up on strength. During the October rally leg, I kept saying that the rally was happening on a reduction of weakness instead of strength. That rally failed with a nice topping pattern that resembles what’s going on now in the $SPX. If the markets do not produce a sign of strength soon, then this rally is destined to fail, as well. Be careful. We could get a sign of strength on the negative side of zero before we get one on the positive side.

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ:

Weak, unconfirmed, Phase IV, buy/hold signal, with emphasis on HOLD.