Three other conference finals are taking place as I type this: North Carolina versus Florida State for the ACC crown, Kentucky and Vanderbilt in the SEC, and Xavier against St Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10. While the first two may have helped FSU or Vandy’s seed, they were played mostly for conference bragging rights. The final game, however, had huge implications for teams on the bubble. If St Bonaventure could pull the upset, the bubble would shrink by one additional spot (Colorado winning the Pac 12 took one last night), and the last team in would miss the tournament. Right now, it’s 50-45 Bonnies with 8:02 to play. A final update will appear later in this post.

This morning I took part in a podcast with the creators of 68&16 Sportscast to debate the merits of each team on each line of the tournament bracket. Other than listening to a hilarious 5 minute rant about how Oral Roberts will be the last team selected as an at-large (5 minutes I’ll never get back), there was a lot of agreement at least about which teams fall within what bands on the tournament ladder. At the bottom of the bracket, there was also a lot of agreement about the weakness of the teams around the bubble. Washington, Cal, Drexel, and BYU each have zero or 1 win over teams that were in consideration for at-large bids. Miami and Mississippi State each had two. Seton Hall, USF, Colorado State, and Marshall each had multiple wins, but also all had a number of bad losses, including down the stretch for Seton Hall, that significantly weaken the case of each of these teams.

My last six teams, from most likely to make it to the final team in are: California, South Florida, Colorado State, Seton Hall, NC State, and Drexel is  my last team in the field by basically a coin flip over BYU, based on winning 25 of their last 27 games and winning the CAA regular season title outright before losing to VCU in their conference final. I hope I don’t regret that one later, but if Drexel misses out, it could well be due to St Bonaventure holding off Xavier and earning an automatic bid today. In any case, I’m hoping Drexel does take the place of one of BYU, Seton Hall, and NC State, as I value winning and winning often over playing a slightly more difficult schedule when the top wins are about the same. More to the point, I believe the Committee, made up of 6 mid-major representatives on the 10 person committee will see things the same way.

On just the wrong side of the bubble are the following 8 teams: from the first team to miss the field through teams on the periphery of the discussion: BYU, Miami (FL), Marshall, Mississippi St, Washington, Northwestern, Iona, and Arizona.

So finally, here is the updated bracket, seeded according to bracket principles set forth by the NCAA. With the exception of the last bubble team that’s presenting me with some cognitive dissonance, I feel very good about it. Check out how my bracket compared to other bracketologists on the Bracket Project. In addition, check in a couple days to see how mine fared as scored by the Paymon scoring system.

In addition, the conference breakout is included below.

Two more overtime games and a huge upset (Louisville over Marquette) in the Big East moved Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Notre Dame into the Big East semifinals tonight. Cincinnati is unequivocally in the tournament at this point, while South Florida will have to sweat it out on the bubble after blowing a late lead to Notre Dame in the ugliest fashion possible.

The Pac 12 saw a similarly poor end game display, as Washington freshman Tony Wroten, who had 29 points on the day and had been 9-11 at the free throw line going into the final minute twice missed two consecutive free throws when down 1 point to Oregon State. Any of the four would have at least tied the game, but instead Washington saw their tournament chances slip out of their own hands with a bad quarterfinal loss to the Beavers.

One more bubble heartbreak came in the Big Ten. You almost had to know Northwestern’s bid to gain inclusion in the NCAA tournament would go down to the wire, and it did one better, progressing to overtime. But in the overtime period, the Minnesota Golden Gophers became public enemy number 1 as they knocked off the Wildcats and put Northwestern’s shaky resume in the hands of the selection committee.

Taking a look at the bracket, 40 teams should now feel very good about their inclusion, to go along with 11 automatic bids that have been captured at the bottom of the bracket. Let’s take a good look at seed lines 1-10:

Next, let’s look at the bubble picture. A number of bubble teams ended their seasons yesterday, while those still in their conference tournaments have big games on tap today. and most have very little margin for error as 25 teams fight for the final 12 spots (including the Big West and maybe WAC and CUSA conference automatic bids). Note the teams in bold have secured automatic bids by winning the CAA, Atlantic Sun, and Summit conferences. Washington is currently the last team in with Tennessee the first team out of the tournament.

Let’s discuss by conference:

Here is the updated bracket, with secured automatic bids in bold.

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” as defined by a better than 98% chance of getting in is between Virginia and Cincinnati in the top table above. The next cutoff, which denotes which teams should feel comfortable with a greater than 75% chance of receiving a tournament bid occurs between VCU and South Florida. Of course VCU is in the tournament and I included USM in the bubble analysis above as a bad loss could be enough to knock them out. UConn, Cincinnati, and Texas should feel safe after yesterday and are now in the projected in category. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams. I’ve reserved 1 for the possibility of the Pac 12, SEC, CUSA, or A-10 resulting in a lost bid at this point. Odds are about 50/50 that one pops up somewhere over the next three days, with the Pac 10 12 being the most likely location.

Four days of games and approximately 90 hours separate us from the unveiling of the brackets. Apparently, the NCAA Committee will hold an in depth discussion of their decision making process this year on live television, following CBS hour long show. It will be interesting to see how the teams actually stacked up in the committee’s eyes on a 1-68 S-curve, as well as what changes they then made to account for geography and other seeding rules, rather than just seeing the final output and trying to guess the thought process behind it.

Now to the bracket. Every major conference will have four conference tournament games on Thursday, including the quarterfinals in the Big East, Pac 12, and Big 12, and the first round of the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC. They’ll be joined by the MWC, MAC, and Conference USA quarters as well. The low-majors will be in action as well. It’s wall to wall basketball. At least within my apartment. And probably yours if you’re reading this. And maybe computer screen, headphones and brain.

The top 37 teams should be in the final bracket in two weeks barring some completely unforeseeable meltdown over the next 4 days. We’re late enough that it would take more than just losing their remaining games (i.e. injuries/suspensions) for these teams to miss out at this juncture. Maybe Cal could find a way out, but the rest are fine. And for the final team on this list, their regular season is over, but their next game is a tournament game for the first time in 66 years. Read this Andy Katz interview with someone on that last team. Congrats to Tommy Amaker and crew.

Next, let’s look at the bubble picture. Connecticut’s overtime comeback win over West Virginia in Round 2 of the Big East tournament has put them in a very comfortable position. West Virginia’s tournament position? Less comfortable than this scene from West Virginia’s recent Final Four run:

The remainder of the bubble teams play big games spanning from tonight through Friday, and most have very little margin for error as 26 teams fight for the final 13 spots (including the Big West conference automatic bid). Note the teams in bold have secured automatic bids by winning the CAA, Atlantic Sun, and Summit conferences. Xavier is once again the last team in, with Seton Hall the first team out going into tonight.

Let’s discuss by conference:

Big East

Finally, some Big East bubble teams came up with big victories. Uconn is in good shape. So too is Cincinnati. South Florida and Seton Hall faced games they needed to win tonight with Villanova and Louisville on tap respectively. South Florida got the win over Nova, while Seton Hall fell to Louisville and is in a lot of trouble. West Virgina’s season is over, and awaits their fate on Selection Sunday.

Big Ten

Northwestern – Win your next game over Minnesota to stay alive, beat Michigan after that and celebrate your first ever tournament bid. A Northwestern/Harvard 8/9 first round matchup? Not out of the question.

ACC 

NC State and Miami secured the 5th and 6th seeds in the ACC tournament. The bad news: unless one wins its first two games in the ACC tournament, it’s a 4 bid league. NC State opens with Boston College and then gets another crack at UVA, who it fell to by one point in Raleigh earlier this year. If they had taken that game or their contest against Duke, they’d already be in good shape. Meanwhile, Miami has beaten Duke and Florida State, but not much else. They draw Georgia Tech and if they get by them in Atlanta, Florida State in round 2.

SEC

Mississippi St stayed alive with a two point overtime win at South Carolina and a home win over Arkansas last week. They need at least one if not two more to feel comfortable

Tennessee also kept its slim hopes alive with an overtime win at LSU, and followed it up with a win over Vanderbilt to grab the two seed in the SEC tournament out of nowhere. It will take a win in the quarters and then maybe a semifinal win as well for the Vols to get an at-large bid with what would be 14 losses on the season.

MWC

Colorado State – A huge second half comeback at home over UNLV moved the Rams to 7-6 in conference play and they followed it up with their first conference road win, at Air Force, to get to 8-6 in Mountain West play. The Rams need to beat TCU in the first round of the MWC tournament in Las Vegas to have a chance.

Atlantic 10

The top 8 seeds have advanced to the quarterfinals, setting up a weekend of chances for Xavier, St Joseph’s, and Dayton to pick up needed big wins.

Pac 12

Mayhem. I’ll sort this out once the first round is over.

Here is the updated bracket, with secured automatic bids in bold.

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” as defined by a better than 98% chance of getting in is between UNLV above. The next cutoff, which denotes which teams should feel comfortable with a greater than 75% chance of receiving a tournament bid occurs between Southern Miss and VCU. Of course VCU is in the tournament and I included UConn, Cincinnati, and USM in the analysis above as a bad loss could be enough to knock each out. ”Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams. However, I’ve removed those for now, as the MVC, WCC, OVC, and Ivy have played out well for bubble teams. The remaining conferences are less likely to have a bid stealer, although odds are about 50/50 that one pops up somewhere over the next four or five days.

#21 Vanderbilt

#22 Murray State

#23 Notre Dame

#24 Creighton

You’ll remember Temple being in this group and they’ve moved up to 5-seed territory at #20. We’ve looked at the other three teams, and Notre Dame is such a hot-and-cold team they could actually be a team that makes a run to the Elite Eight or could be a first round finisher. Very scary to me. So my order in which I rank the desire in which I’d like to see Long Beach State play them:

1. Creighton

2. Vanderbilt

3. Murray State

4. Notre Dame

Let’s start with the teams that are locks, near locks, or should otherwise feel pretty sage at this point. These 36 teams currently make up the 1-9 lines and should be in the final bracket in two weeks barring some completely unforeseeable meltdown over the next 11 days. We’re late enough that it would take more than just losing their remaining games for these teams to miss out at this juncture.

Next, let’s look at the bubble picture and then discuss what happened last night. The top 16 teams on the next list would make the tournament currently, 13 as at-large bids (with Colorado State currently the last team in the field and Xavier the first team out) and 3 conference automatic bids represented by Harvard, Long Beach State, and Drexel for the time being. Those teams could potentially earn at-large bids if they don’t get their respective automatic bids.

Let’s discuss by conference:

Big East

Finally, some Big East bubble teams came up with big victories. South Florida went on the road to beat Louisville, putting them in fourth place at 12-5 in the Big East. So much for not having any big wins. It’s tough to see them missing the field with a minimum of 12 Big East wins.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati defeated Marquette, giving them a 6th top 50 win, improving their RPI to 71, and giving them an 11th Big East win. They are likely the 6 seed in the Big East tournament and look good at this point as well.

West Virginia and Connecticut are suddenly 9th and 10th in the Big East pecking order, which is not a good position for feeling confident at this juncture. Two teams that looked like locks a month ago have gone the wrong direction in a hurry and hold bids by the narrowest of margins heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Big Ten

Northwestern – The only thing worse than losing too early every time you make the tournament is never having made it there. This article could turn out to be precient  after last night’s heartbreaking loss in the final seconds on a Jared Sullinger layup with 3 seconds remaining denied Northwestern a marquee win, and one they had to have. They are in the tenuous position of holding one of the final play-in bids currently, the bids that disappear when upsets occur in conference tournaments. The result: watching the selection show and bikram yoga will be similar for NU fans; they’ll end up drenched in sweat and not entirely sure if they’ll be happy with the result in its aftermath, leaving open the possibility for significant pain.

ACC

NC State beat Miami on Wednesday night, delivering a blow to the Hurricanes chances and keeping the Wolfpack alive. I’m not sure either team will make the tournament at this point, but for now the Hurricanes get the nod based largely on their wins over Duke and Florida State.

SEC

Mississippi St stayed alive with a two point overtime win at South Carolina. They still look largely disorganized and disinterested and don’t look or sound like a team that wants to make the tournament. But with a home game against Arkansas to get to 8-8 in conference play and a win or two in the SEC tournament, they have a chance to do just that.

Tennessee also kept its slim hopes alive with an overtime win at LSU, effectively ending the small prayer the Tigers clung to.

Alabama, meanwhile, locked up a bid with a home win over rival Auburn. The question for them is now what seed they will receive.

MWC

Colorado State – A huge second half comeback at home over UNLV moved the Rams to 7-6 in conference play and gave them a 3rd conference win over the clear NCAA tournament teams in their conference, to go along with wins over New Mexico and San Diego State. Here’s where their profile gets interesting. The good: 7-0 at home in conference play; those 3 good wins; RPI of 21. The bad: 0-6 on the road in conference play, no big nonconference wins, 4-11 in total away from their home court. They get the last bid for now, but absolutely need to win at Air Force, something they failed to do at each of their previous road conference games, to feel at all confident in their chances.

Atlantic 10

Saint Joseph’s lost at Saint Bonaventure, while Dayton lost at Richmond, effectively ending each of those team’s at-large bids without a run to the A-10 finals.

Where do we stand today? Here’s how the bracket has shaken out through Wednesday’s action:

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” as defined by a better than 98% chance of getting in is between UNLV above. The next cutoff, which denotes which teams should feel comfortable with a greater than 75% chance of receiving a tournament bid occurs between Alabama and Harvard. Of course Harvard should win the Ivy league’s automatic bid as regular season champion and won’t require an at-large bid. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams.

Rounds, the maker of a platform that combines video chat and social apps, has launched a new web-based game that incorporates interactive music video from the band We The Kings.

In the game, users can control the actions of band members within a music video. Tel Aviv, Israel-based Rounds calls this “communitainment,” and it says the title is first of nine new games coming in 2012.

The game was created by developer Interlude as a single-player or one-on-one multiplayer title. Players who finish the game’s four levels can earn a free We The Kings song.The music video in the game is built around the band’s song Say You Like Me.

During the game, the band member avatar completes challenges as directed by the user. The user progresses through various levels and “saves the girl” in order to unlock the video.

Chief executive Danny Fishel and chief operating officer Ilan Leibovitch started the company in 2008. The company offers a web-based chat service that gives users a chance to participate in entertainment apps while they are chatting.

Interlude developers used the Rounds applications programming interface to integrate the video and game. High scores are tracked and posted on a leaderboard on the We The Kings official site, which will help get the game discovered. We The Kings is a platinum-selling band.

Fishel said the game is a “groundbreaking product that combines a compelling music video with an interactive game that really holds the viewer’s attention.” He added, “The future of interactive entertainment rests with social media and we are proud to be a driving force of this new medium.”

Rounds runs a web-based “live hangout” platform that combines real-time communications and rich applications. The free service has more than 4 million users around the world who play one million daily Rounds sessions.

Rounds’ interactive “live hangout” platform combines real-time communication and rich applications for fun face-to-face socializing online. The free service already boasts more than four million users from around the world and more than one million daily Rounds sessions. Rounds has raised $5.5 million in funding from Verizon Investments, Rhodium, Startup Factory, Gitam, Tim Draper, Zeev Bregman, Uri Shinaar, Carmel Vernia, Benny Levin and Yaron Galai.

Rounds has 23 full and part-time employees. Rounds launched a Facebook app for video chat in August of last year and it has more than 4 million users who partake in 1 million hangout sessions a day.

At the top of the bracket, the final Border War between Kansas and Missouri (before Missouri heads to the SEC) involved a 19 point Kansas comeback in the second half and a crazy overtime that saw Missouri take the lead with 16 seconds remaining, Kansas take the lead with 2 free throws with 9 seconds remaining, and Missouri failing to get a shot off before the buzzer sounded at a frenzied Phog Allen Fieldhouse. This game pushes Kansas two games clear of Missori in the Big 12 standings, giving them an 8th straight Big 12 title, and pushing them clearly ahead of Mizzou for a potential #1 seed. Meanwhile, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Michigan State all won to keep pace in a hotly contested battle between 8 teams for the 4 #1 seeds. Kentucky and Syracuse appear to have the first two wrapped up, while Kansas, Ohio State, Michigan State, Duke and UNC now battle for the other two.

Marquette keeps rolling along, positioning themselves as the top 3 seed by a fair margin, this time with a comback 1-point Friday night victory at West Virginia, prompting Marquette coach Buzz Williams to dance with joy shortly after the game, to the ire of the West Virginia crowd. Baylor, Georgetown, and Wichita State also continued winning games, setting themselves up safely for a 3/4 seed.

Michigan, Florida, Temple, Notre Dame, and New Mexico did not far as well, and the 4-6 seeds remain up for grabs. There is a clear gulf in class between the top 8 or so teams in the country and everyone else. Combine the relative weakness of the 3/4 seeds with the strength of the potential 13-15 seed conference champions if favorites win their conference tournaments, and you have a recipe for a number of first round upsets throughout the bracket. More on this later this week.

Now let’s turn to the bubble. The following 36 teams are competing for the final 12 at-large bids plus 9 automatic bids (ASun, Big West, CAA, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, SunBelt, Summit, and WAC). Those conference leaders are indicated in Italics. In addition, the WCC, Conference USA, Atlantic 10, and espeically the MVC and OVC tournaments could be sources of stolen bids that shrink the bubble further if teams not currently projected to make the tournament end of winning those conference tournaments.  The cutoff line is currently between Miami and Arizona.

A number of these teams, and a couple just above them, made life far more difficult than necessary by losing to conference bottom feeders they simply need to beat.

Saint Louis went into the day tied with Temple for the conference lead and in a safe position for inclusion in the tournament and proceeded to lose to 200+ RPI side Rhode Island, sliding them to a 9 seed.

Seton Hall started in a slightly worse position, and then suffered a home loss to in-state rival Rutgers last night, pushing them back on the bubble.

Harvard blew a chance to wrap up the Ivy league crown, suffering a heartbreaking 1 point home loss to Penn that tied the two sides with 2 conference losses and may force them into yet another 1 game playoff for the Ivy league bid, as Harvard seeks only the second bid in school history (and first since 1946).

Mississippi State grew its losing streak to 4 games, getting blown out at Alabama, and now probably needs help just to make the tournament on a squad that surely includes two future NBA players in Arnett Moultrie and Renardo Sidney.

Texas nearly suffered the same fate as some of those above, trailing for most of the afternoon against all-time worst Big 12 squad Texas Tech. However, a late comback and successful battle to a win in overtime kept them on the right side of the bubble for the time being. They will need to win over Oklahoma or at Kansas this week to remain there heading into the Big 12 tournament.

Here is a look at the bracket and conference breakdown.

Well that’s the personal background of the piece; but what I did was create a canvas size and mimicked the photos to fit inside. Each photo was individually colored by adjusting many levels of the light, hue and saturation, as well as individually cropped to play off the angles of the photos.  I looked for dynamic interesting angles that were inviting with heavy diagonals.  I also wanted the photos to look as natural as possible, and not to look “set up”, a more of an everyday Dad type of thing.  I had more photos I wanted to use, unfortunately I was threatened with time constraints, but I can always add more later. I plan to do so and print this out to a poster size and share this with my friends, they have always been big fans of my art and are my number one supporters including my own family. This is a link of my Flikr account where the original photos were uploaded before I manipulated them if your curious of the before/after. Enjoy!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/raygonzalez/     (<<<flikr account link)

Daddies and Kiddos

Minnesota let a big chance to get back into the picture slip away as they blew a late lead at home against potential #1 seed Michigan State. They’re not going to make the tournament without a miracle.

South Florida let an early 13 point lead evaporate at #2 Syracuse by allowing a 26-0 run spanning the end of the first half and beginning of the second, letting a marquee win that would almost assuredly have put them in the bracket pass them by. They’ll likely need to win 1-2 more against Cincinnati, @Louisville, or West Virginia down the stretch in order to make the tournament.

Equally important, teams such as Notre Dame and Temple secured important wins that should help them avoid the 8/9 matchups, which is crucial if you want to make the second weekend of the tournament.

29 teams are tightly clustered for the final 16 bids (including the Big West, Sun Belt, and CAA automatic bids), with each of them having more work to do in order to make the tournament, but an open door to walk through should they be able to take care of what they’re supposed to. How many teams avoided harmful losses yesterday? Eye on College Basketball on CBS Sports provides a succinct rundown of yesterday’s activity.

Who will step into the bracket with so many bubble teams seemingly struggling to make their case? Here’s how the bracket has shaken out through Wednesday’s action:

Here is the ranking scale that got us there with all remaining teams under consideration, with 18 days of games left . Note that Arizona is the last team in and Xavier the first team out.

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” as defined by a better than 98% chance of getting in is between UNLV above. The next cutoff, which denotes which teams should feel comfortable with a greater than 75% chance of receiving a tournament bid occurs between Alabama and Harvard. Of course Harvard should win the Ivy league’s automatic bid as regular season champion and won’t require an at-large bid. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams.

The quick view: Kansas State and Seton Hall greatly improved their tournament resumes by grabbing huge wins over Missouri and Georgetown respectively. That should punch Kansas State’s dance card, and move Seton Hall into a much more secure position with just games against Rutgers and Depaul remaining to get to 10-8 in the Big East.

The rest of the bubble teams that played last night moved closer together near the cut line. In the case of Colorado State, who beat a red hot New Mexico squad last night, this was a good thing. They still find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble, but added a hugely lacking marquee win to their resume and kept themselves in the discussion. Northwestern (Michigan), Miami (@Maryland), NC State (UNC), Xavier (@UMass), and Mississippi State (Kentucky) all let opportunities slip away and find themselves mired in a larger than usual pool of substandard bubble teams that still haven’t distinguished themselves from one another with just 18 days until Selection Sunday.

Who will step into the bracket with so many bubble teams seemingly struggling to make their case? Here’s how the bracket has shaken out through Tuesday’s action:

Let’s also take a quick look ahead at the big games of this evening (with my at-large rankings listed, and 53 Arizona as last team in):

#20 Temple @ #73 La Salle – Important ig 5 matchup for Temple as they try to win the A-10 and La Salle as they try to keep their miniscule tournament hopes alive.

#39 West Virgina @ #22 Notre Dame – Big East clash between Irish team looking for Big East double bye and WVU looking to add a big win.

Nebraska @ #41 Purdue – Purdue appears ok for now, but as a current 11 seed, they can’t afford to lose games like this home clash with 11th place Nebraska.

#4 Michigan State @ #65 Minnesota – Minnesota’s running out of chances to land another big win, while MSU has a #1 seed in their sights.

#51 South Florida @ #2 Syracuse – USF sits in 4th in the Big East at 10-4, but is still on the bubble as it searches for a first marquee win. This game, while a long shot, would go a long way for the Bulls.

#74 Wyoming @ #31 San Diego State – Both teams have been struggling; Wyoming absolutely must have it, while SDSU looks towards improving their seed and securing their bid.

#40 Southern Miss @ UTEP – Southern Miss, coming off a loss to Houston cannot afford to suffer the same fate as Memphis on Saturday, a loss to UTEP.

#68 UCF @ Rice – UCF simply must win to stay alive.

#82 Mississippi @ #75 Tennessee – Both teams have just about run out of chances, so expect a highly contested battle between two desperate teams.

Richmond @ #55 St Joseph’s – St Joe’s has quietly been taking care of business in recent weeks and finds itself very close to the tournament field. Continue to win, and they may just grab a 3rd bid for the A-10.

UCSB @ #46 Long Beach State – Long Beach State takes on Big West rival and second place squad UC Santa Barbara. While the Beach is still undefeated in conference play, it has absolutely no margin for error heading into the Big West tournament.

James Madison @ #52 Drexel – The Dragons lead the CAA and sport a 15 game winning streak, and are coming off a road thrashing of Cleveland State. However, like LBSU, they have no margin for error and must continue winning until at least their conference tournament.

It also coincided with the NCAA’s mock bracket projection, a dress rehearsal of the real committee for media types. A number of insightful articles have been written about them over the weekend, a couple of which I have linked, including one excellent one railing against the pervasiveness of the RPI in all the numbers the NCAA presents to the committee, but discussing the mechanics and thoroughness of the process. Others prefer the simplicity of the RPI. All four are excellent reads if you’re into the workings of the committee or would like to learn more about different measures available to compare teams.

At the top of the bracket, Michigan State continued their strong run towards a number one seed by taking an outright lead in the Big Ten with a win at Purdue, while Ohio State fell to Michigan. Huge clashes between Kansas and Missouri and UNC and Duke are on tap for this week and next, and should help clear up which teams will end up on the #1 and #2 seed lines. For now, Kentucky and Syracuse appear to be in great shape for favorable geographic locations in the Regionals as the top two overall seeds.

Bracketbusters also allowed a few teams to stake their claim to tournament bids and left others wondering what could have been. The biggest winners from the weekend: Wichita State and Murray State. Murray State ran all over St Mary’s, giving them a third big win on their resume and all but guaranteeing a bid should they lose in the Ohio Valley tournament. Wichita State, meanwhile, turned in yet another dominating performance at Davidson, and may have played themselves up into a Sweet 16 seed.

The Colonial Athletic Association also proved to be a big winner. The top 6 teams in the conference standings all won over the weekend, including Drexel winning their 16th straight game at Cleveland State and VCU defeating Northern Iowa to keep their at-large bids alive.

The tough luck team of Bracketbuster Weekend: The Beach. Long Beach State went right to the wire at Creighton, losing on a game winning shot with 0.3 seconds remaining. This was the 8th tough road game for the veteran squad, which has shown that it can take on anyone anywhere. What they haven’t done is win most of these road encounters, with the lone exception a win at then ranked Pittsburgh (to go with a neutral site win over then top-10 Xavier). However, ask Kansas, UNC, Louisville, or San Diego State if they want to see this team again on a neutral floor, and I don’t think you’ll get many takers. The 7th most experienced team in the country, and still undefeated in the Big West conference, they are the type of team that can turn these close road losses into neutral court wins come March.  But first, they’ll have to get there.

Bubble Action

In important Big Ten bubble contests, Illinois was blown out by last place Nebraska, who went on an incomprehensible 43-7 run to end the first half and begin the second. If Bruce Weber’s seat wasn’t hot before that game (and it was), it’s scorching now. Meanwhile, Purdue and Northwestern are hanging on the good side of the bubble. Bill Carmody’s Northwestern squad attempts to make its first ever NCAA Tournament, and has a chance for a marquee win when it hosts Michigan on Tuesday night.

In the Big East, Seton Hall, South Florida, and Cincinnati notched important wins in the early part of the week, while Notre Dame and Marquette moved towards high seeds in the bracket. Connecticut appeared to be going the wrong direction fast after getting run off their home floor by Marquette. But as I type this, Shabazz Napier just buried a 35 footer with 0.7 seconds remaining in overtime to beat Villanova and grab a monumentally important win for the defending champs.

Big 12 – Texas faltered at Oklahoma State, while Kansas State got a hugely important road win at Baylor. Both sit well on the good side of the bubble, but a Texas squad ranked much higher in efficiency based ranking systems than in RPI or human polls can put itself in a great position by beating that same Baylor team that has struggled in recent weeks.

ACC – NC State had a disastrous week, blowing a 20 point lead over Duke on Thursday, and getting soundly beaten by Florida State on Saturday. They are the first team out of the bracket today and will look back wistfully on that wasted opportunity against Duke if they end up on the wrong side of the bubble in 3 weeks.

SEC – Vandy got an important win at Georgia on Sunday and can finally breathe a little easier with their tournament standing. Alabama and Mississippi State, not so much, after Alabama suspended Tony Mitchell for the remainder of the season and Mississippi State dropped yet another conference game, this time to conference bottom dweller Auburn.  As for Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, and Tennessee, time is quickly running out if it hasn’t already.

In the Pac 12, California kept rolling along with wins over Oregon and Oregon State and appears safe for now. Washington and Arizona, far from safe. Washington completed a season sweep of Arizona this weekend, however, and moved back to the good side of the bubble. Both of those teams, as well as Oregon and Colorado, will need to win the games they’re supposed to and then some if they want to play in the big tournament. Oregon’s win at Stanford last night was a good step forward.

Gonzaga, Memphis, and Southern Miss did anything but help their respective causes, all losing conference games to teams in the bottom half of their respective conferences on Saturday.

Finally, New Mexico grabbed total control of the MWC with wins over San Diego State and UNLV this week, while Temple and St Louis continued to separate themselves from the rest of the Atlantic 10. Xavier and St Joseph’s are trying to pull themselves along with the leaders, while everyone else has fallen off the pack.

Who will step into the bracket with so many bubble teams seemingly struggling to make their case? Here’s how the bracket has shaken out through Sunday’s action:

I remind everyone that I take the approach of projecting what will happen on Selection Sunday, rather than trying to create the bracket as it would look today. This means that teams will have to exceed or fall short of expectations the rest of the way to move up or down, and doing what is expected would likely be enough to stay exactly in place. Of course, the closer we get, the closer the two converge and I believe the two methods would provide similar results at this point.

Here is the ranking scale that got us there with all remaining teams under consideration. I have tried to calculate the percentage chance of a team in a similar spot getting an at-large bid at this point, but since it’s on a top to bottom sliding scale, there are imperfections in these calculations. That said, they look pretty accurate at this point, so even if two or three teams look a little bit off, I feel comfortable publishing those probabilities at this point. The main issue is that the team ratings assume they live up to expectations, so for many of the smaller conference leaders, those odds incorporate their chances of taking care of business in conference tournaments. Should a team such as Belmont lose, they would likely drop in the ratings, so their chance of an at-large bid should they need it is likely lower than the listed odds. I will limit my list to those teams with a greater than 5% chance of earning an at-large bid at this point and going forward. Note that Arizona is the last team in and NC State the first team out.

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” as defined by a better than 98% chance of getting in is between Indiana and Temple above. The next cutoff, which denotes which teams should feel comfortable with a greater than 75% chance of receiving a tournament bid occurs between Alabama and Harvard. Of course Harvard should win the Ivy league’s automatic bid as regular season champion and won’t require an at-large bid. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams.

The remainder of the bracket is in far more a state of flux than the top. The last three days were a microcosm of the last 3 weeks: not many teams have been playing consistent basketball and positioning themselves well for the stretch run and for bracket seeding. The good news, for those who have, is that they can make up a lot of ground quickly and put themselves in excellent position. Notre Dame, St Louis, Temple, New Mexico, and Wichita State are excellent examples of teams that have taken advantage of shoddy play across the country in recent weeks by moving themselves into the favored seeds in Round 1 of the tournament. Saint Mary’s, Creighton, Virginia, Alabama, and Mississippi State haven’t taken advantage and find themselves sliding towards the Bubble in a hurry. St Jospeh’s and Tennesse are also racing towards the cut line, but in an upwards trajectory from the outside.

Bubble Action

In important Big Ten bubble contests, Purdue beat Illinois, while Minnesota and Northwestern missed out on big chances for a statement victory against Ohio St and Indiana respectively. Illinois and Northwestern find themselves among the last four teams in and better start winning quickly, while Minnesota is currently on the outside looking in and will have to win a game they’re not supposed to as well as those they are. Purdue has given itself a little margin for error, but it better not take it for granted as they are still just a 10 seed in this update.

In the Big East, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, and Cincinnati notched important wins in the early part of the week, while Notre Dame continued its hot run and moved itself to a position comfortably within the bracket. West Virginia has a huge tilt with Pittsburgh tonight that both teams desperately need.

Big 12 – Texas secured another important win over Oklahoma, while Kansas State continued it’s slide towards the tournament cut line, this time in a home loss to rival Kansas.

ACC – Virginia and Miami suffered tough losses to Clemson and UNC respectively, both failing to improve their resume, and Virginia probably hurting their projected seed in the process.

SEC – Outside of Kentucky,Florida, and maybe Vanderbilt, all the teams that looked good a couple weeks into conference play have been a disaster this month. Alabama, Mississippi State, and Arkansas suffered bad losses that continued to hurt their tournament profiles, while LSU and Tennessee have gone the opposite direction beating MSU and Arkansas respectively this week to continue their march upwards towards the tournament bubble. It’s tough to see this conference getting more than 5 bids at this point, so it should be interesting watching Bama, Ole Miss, Miss St, Arkansas, LSU, and Tennessee battle it out for two spots over the next three weeks.

Finally, Colorado State and Wyoming completely blew their chances against the MWC bottom feeders last night, delivering an enormous blow to each of their chances at a tournament bid.

Who will step into the bracket with so many bubble teams seemingly struggling to make their case? Here’s how the bracket has shaken out through Wednesday night’s action (Note: For the first time yet this year, I have attempted to follow seeding procedures used by the Committee in terms of avoiding conference matchups in the first round, etc. I have mostly succeeded by shifting teams along a line, but have not moved any teams up or down a line):

I remind everyone that I take the approach of projecting what will happen on Selection Sunday, rather than trying to create the bracket as it would look today. This means that teams will have to exceed or fall short of expectations the rest of the way to move up or down, and doing what is expected would likely be enough to stay exactly in place. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments section as to what this entails if you would like further details, but it’s obviously not without its challenges to project the field in this way. It also has its advantages of taking into account upcoming schedules rather than ignoring them altogether.

Here is the ranking scale that got us there with all remaining teams under consideration. I don’t know if Davidson or George Mason’s at large bids have any legs left, but I felt like giving them a shoutout for having their respective conference leads at this point, so they stay on the table for today. Cleveland State, with three straight losses, gets no such benefit of the doubt. (In a warped, still bitter about March 2009 kind of way, that makes me smile for half a second, until I realize that loss was partially responsible for the firing that brought Jeff Bzdelik to Winston-Salem. Nothing more to see on this tangent, rant over, moving along….) Note that the last spot above was a virtual coin flip between Illinois and Cincinnati:

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” is between Florida State and New Mexico above. The next cutoff, which denotes where teams are currently on the bubble and need to win the games they’re supposed to over the remainder of the season occurs between Iowa St and Connecticut. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams.

Today I would like to discuss with you the impact perfectionism has on the course of a project, and approaches you can consider to help you keep on track.

When I was studying for my Master of Management, the major assignment of the first semester was the Common Project. It was a fairly big assignment where we were tasked with developing our very own business idea, as well as pitching it in front of a panel of experts in the field of venture capitalism and business. It was as real as a class-room project could get, and critically marked to make us allocate a lot of our time to the project.

We ran through all the customary stages of brainstorming for ideas, dismissal, elevator pitches and so on. After the initial pitch we dived deeper into all the areas that we had to cover in this entrepreneurial project, as there were marketing, production, logistics, financial, governance and general strategy dimensions to take into account. We delved deep into the details of the problems that we thought to be most important at that time which were actually difficult to target because of the limited time and the limited (especially human) resources we were given.

One week prior to the final pitch in front of the panel, we had a lecture with our program director Nick Wailes who was the supervisor of the project and our strategy professor. Nick monitored our progress and knew what we had done so far. In this lecture he told us that all groups were on a target, but some of us might get stuck in details that won’t let the project succeed if they were achieved, but let the project fail if they were neglected. Nick then said: “Sometimes you just need to push back”.

At this point it was important to stop and take a step back from the assignment to get a broader perspective, and decide whether it was time to pursue the details we were currently working on or pushing back on them and getting back to the tasks that really mattered. We had to refocus our energies.

That fact projects proceed in a S-Curved shape is nothing new and Mukul Gupta illustrates that very well in his article “Project Progress during Starting and Closing Phases”. However, I argue that this only represents the ideal case. In every project it is necessary to reflect intermittently on your progress and check if you are trapped in details that don’t lead you to the overarching goal. If you find your focus is waning you need to take action, push back, and refocus on the main objective. This point is represented by the first plateau of the double-s-shaped progress-chart of mine.

And this is where I want to return to the perfectionism-topic that I started with. The classic perfectionist has a problem at this point. The point of time when the project is 80% done. He wants a certain detail to be perfect, even though the overarching question to this detail is already answered and this detail might only be an addition, when at the same time there are massive gaps at a different end of the project. This is when you have to remind yourself and your team to take a step back and decide whether or not it is time to push back to keep on track.

Finally, if you are not running into the deadline it might even be possible for the perfectionist to perfectionize those details after the common goal of the project is accomplished to achieve a degree of fulfillment of more than 100%…

Sebastian

Historical homes in Annapolis Maryland ensure historical accuracy by using Shutter Tie Backs for their windows. The popular “S” curve shutter dogs have been made for over 200 years and were originally hand forged.

1/200 sec at f/8.0 ISO 100 Canon 60D 24-105mm at 50mm

1/125 sec at f/8.0 ISO 100 Canon 60D 24-105mm 45mm

UNLV, Wichita State, Marquette, and Louisville all secured important wins that either propelled or kept them in the seeded (1-4) lines of the tournament bracket with just 4 weeks to go.

Meanwhile, the weekend before Bracket Busters was not very good to Mid Majors. Cleveland State (two losses) and Iona (loss to Loyola MD) likely saw their at large hopes destroyed, while Murray St, Harvard, and Creighton all suffered tough losses that will damage their prospective at large hopes. Harvard at least has the benefit of the Ivy league lead and the regular season champion determining their automatic bid. Murray St and Creighton do not have this advantage and would be wise to beat St Mary’s and Long Beach State respectively in home Bracket Busters tilts this weekend.

Temple and St Louis achieved separation atop the A10, Memphis and USM did so in Conference USA, and VCU, Drexel, and George Mason kept winning to make the CAA a 3 team race to the finish.

Bubble Action

In important Big Ten bubble contests, Purdue beat Northwestern, while Illinois failed to gain any positive momentum, falling at Michigan.

In the Big East, Pittsburgh lost two important contests that should put any bubble talk on hold, falling to fellow bubble teams Seton Hall and USF. Cincinnati was blown out by Marquette, while UConn suffered the same fate in the Carrier Dome against Syracuse.

Big 12 – Texas won a hugely important bubble contest over Kansas State, vaulting them ahead of K State in the pecking order for the first time this season.

Finally, Arizona, California and Oregon had successful weekend sweeps in the Pac 12, while Washington, UCLA, Colorado, and Stanford each split their two games over the weekend, the equivalent of treading water. Unfortunately, none of these teams were in a great position to do so. Washington now has a huge weekend game with Arizona ahead, in what shapes up as a matchup between the last two teams currently in the bracket.

Here’s how the bracket has shaken out following the weekend action:

And here is the ranking scale that got us there with all remaining teams under consideration, as well as a breakdown by conference. Note that the cutoff for the bracket above was between the two Pac 12 schools and Xavier.

In addition, the conference breakout is included below. The cutoff between virtual locks and teams just “comfortably in” is between Florida State and St. Mary’s above. The next cutoff, which denotes where teams are currently on the bubble and need to win the games they’re supposed to over the remainder of the season occurs between Southern Miss and Connecticut. “Lost Bids” denote those reserved for teams that could get into the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament that would not otherwise get an at-large bid, thus shrinking the number of available at-large bids for other teams.

Collar Bones

S-Curve/Spine bone

This series started out as a school project idea. I sort of have a fascination in features of the body that people find attractive and it’s not the usual ‘eyes’, ‘hair’, ‘muscles’ etc. I wanted to focus on something out of the norm of what some people find attractive in a person other than what’s on the surface (hence, Love in Bones). In these drawings, I wanted to showcase those bone structure (because after all, we are attracted to the bone underneath that skin) but also not leave out the curves that they leave on our body because well, it’s the only kind of indication people get of their existence. Besides, those curves add to the attraction quality. Furthermore, the consistent cloth covering the rest of the body is to have the viewers focus more on the bones rather than any other parts (seems pretty obvious). As for the splotched background, I wanted to give a soft, delicate quality to these bones but also make them stand out against the pale skin.

These are the two I have completed thus far, I am planning on doing a third one to make this into a triptych.

Baylor still had a better night than Florida State and Arkansas, who had inexplicable losses on the road at Boston College and Georgia respectively. Florida State’s loss was inexplicable in that they gave away first place by losing to the worst ACC team in recent memory, while the way in which Arkansas was manhandled by an SEC bottom dweller does not say good things about their intention of playing in the NCAA Tournament. Both still looked better than Wake Forest did against Virginia, but since this post is about the NCAA tournament, I will relent for the moment and get back on topic.

In mid-major land, there was a striking resemblance to a John Isner tennis match, as all the favorites held serve. Wichita State and Missouri State won in the MVC, the top five teams in the CAA all came away with victories, Temple, St Louis, Xavier, and UMass won in the A-10, and the top 4 teams in the MAC sans Ohio won their games as well. The top teams in the Horizon, Ivy, Sun Belt, OVC, and Mountain West will get their opportunities to do the same in the next two days.

Here’s how the bracket has shaken out following last night’s action:

And here is the ranking scale that got us there with all remaining teams under consideration, as well as a breakdown by conference. Note that the cutoff for the bracket above was between Arizona and Washington.

With football season over, the larger sports world now joins the diehards as college basketball season counts down to March Madness. I’ll speak at more length throughout the week, but kudos to Miami (beat Duke), Notre Dame (beat Marquette), Arizona (swept Cal/Stanford), and Wyoming (beat UNLV) for impressive weekends that propelled them either into the bracket or at least into consideration. Below is my current projected s-curve and a poll for your consideration.

 In addition, see the top 90 teams still in contention for the tournament’s at-large bids. The cut line for inclusion is currently between Washington and Xavier.

One thing I’ve learned about these rankings is that since they include projections for all teams, mid-major and low-major teams that are expected to take care of business anyways have more trouble moving higher in the rankings than do major conference teams. As such, the current ratings for a Cleveland St or Middle Tennessee for instance, are near their peak currently. While they could potentially move a little higher by winning convincingly each game, continued winning will mostly maintain each team’s current rating, while a loss will severely impact each team’s chances. This can be seen by how far Nevada dropped after a single home loss from my last update to today. Thus, a few of these teams may look a little better today than they would look after a bad loss in a conference tournament for instance, which is something to keep in mind going forward.