[post updated October 11, 1:57 a.m. Pacific Standard Time]

The Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reports that potentially dangerous concentrations of sarin gas, a deadly nerve agent used most infamously in the First World War, was detected along the Chinese-North Korean border.  While the detection took place in November 2008 and February 2009, the story only broke yesterday as the result of PLA sources talking to the newspaper.

Isn’t the timing of this leak (of information, not toxic gas) rather interesting?  After all, the Chinese premier just came back from Pyongyang, where the PLA seemed rather cozy with their KPA counterparts.  But now someone in the PLA is reminding Japanese news sources, and their Western counterparts thereby, that all is not harmonious between PRC and DRPK.  North Korea remains a provocateur.

The full text of the report is available here in Japanese.

Asahi Shimbun's graphic -- Indicating the gas was detected outside of the urban center of Dandong.

English versions of the story, such as the here via AFP, pretty faithfully convey the main content of the Japanese report, but leave out one of the more interesting details: Chinese special forces consistently monitor air currents from North Korea, and that Chinese military aircraft flew over the areas of China where the sarin was floating in and did their best to detoxify the area.  The Japanese report also discusses the possibility of chemical weapons being manufactured in the area of Sinuiju, the area that appears to be the source of the sarin.

Here is the AFP version.  Once again, we Anglophones don’t get the whole story:

TOKYO (AFP) – China has detected deadly nerve gas at its border with North Korea and suspects an accidental release inside the secretive state, a Japanese news report said Friday.

The Chinese military is strengthening its surveillance activities after detecting the highly virulent sarin gas in November last year and in February in Liaoning province, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported, citing anonymous sources from the Chinese military.

Sarin gas, which was developed in Germany before World War I, was used in the deadly 1995 nerve gas attack on the Tokyo subway by a doomsday cult.

The Chinese special operations forces found 0.015-0.03 microgrammes of the gas per cubic metre when they were conducting regular surveys while there were winds from the direction of North Korea, the report said.

China suspects that there were some experiments or accidents in its neighbouring country, it said.

A rather free-wheeling discussion of the story is going on here on a slightly strange but potentially helpful Anglophone BBS.  Reports emerged in March 2006 that North Korea was gathering the basic ingredients for sarin.  The Straits Times, via AFP again, has a more extensive story on North Korean biological/chemical weapons programs here.  This news did not appear to receive big play in China, as it would have roiled the CCP’s aim to get people mobilized behind support of the Wen Jiabao visit and pushing for US-NK direct talks, but it was reported in a short sidebar in yesterday’s South China Morning Post, which is where I first encountered the story.

Finally, a German defense intelligence website reports on the story with an ominous graphic

Nervenkampfstoffe sind bereits in kleinsten Mengen tödlich. Die Angriffsfläche ist dabei der gesamte Körper. Via Defense Pool.

and the reminder that Germans were the first to develop sarin.  As they properly imply, the manufacture of sarin is not an expertise we should be privileging in the 21st century!

Coda: I myself am in possession of both Chinese and American documents (just two) from the early months of the Korean War that assert that the North Koreans were working on biological weapons themselves way back in 1950.  One has to put socialist modernity to good use, after all!  Of course, at the time, the Americans were happily using the rather large body of data coaxed out of Japanese war criminal Ishii Shiro, meaning that NK could simply have been engaging in some defensive research, with a little help from Soviet friends.

Just how much does Kim Jong-il have to taunt and torment us before we say enough is enough and obliterate the North Korean regional and world menace once and for all? Is there anything we won’t let them get away with, a line somewhere we’ll defend that they haven’t already crossed yet? After recently sentencing two U.S. journalists to 12 years hard labor, how much more in our face does North Korea have to get before we do something about it? What else does Kim Jong-il have to do before we finally push back, provide the fireworks for our Independence Day?

Japan warns that North Korea may fire missile at U.S. on Independence Day

North Korea may launch a long-range ballistic missile towards Hawaii on American Independence Day, according to Japanese intelligence officials.

The missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles, would be launched in early July from the Dongchang-ni site on the north-western coast of the secretive country.

Intelligence analysts do not believe the device would be capable of hitting Hawaii’s main islands, which are 4,500 miles from North Korea.

Details of the launch came from the Japan’s best-selling newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun.
Both Japanese intelligence and U.S. reconnaissance satellites have collated information pointing to the launch, according to the report.

It is understood the communist state is likely to fire the missile between July 4 and 8. A launch on July 4 would coincide with Independence Day in the States.It would also be the 15th anniversary of North Korean president Kim Il-Sung’s death.

The Japanese newspaper also noted that North Korea had fired its first Taepodong-2 missile on July 4, 2006.

See also:
Report: NKorea may fire missile toward Hawaii
Report: N. Korea May Fire ICBM Toward Hawaii
Pentagon: North Korea Missiles Threaten US Homeland
Gates: Missile interceptors on way to Hawaii ahead of North Korea test
U.S. boosts missile defense amid reports of planned N. Korea test

Oh boy, we’re moving missile interceptors to Hawaii, just like we have for every North Korean missile launch so far. Will we intercept their missile? Probably not, we haven’t so far. Hey, I know, since we know exactly where their missile is, sitting on a launch pad, why don’t we really send a message to stop launching missiles and destroy it on the ground with a cruise missile strike, or would that be too provocative? God knows we wouldn’t want to upset Kim Jong-il.

Gee, looky here, after telling North Korea umpteen times that they’re not supposed to be proliferating weapons of mass destruction, they’re at it again. Why won’t they listen to us, aren’t they scared of what we might do in response? Apparently not.

U.S. Military Tracking North Korean Ship Suspected of Proliferating Missiles, Nukes

The U.S. military is tracking a flagged North Korean ship suspected of proliferating weapons material in violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution passed last Friday, FOX News has learned.

The ship, Kang Nam, left a port in North Korea Wednesday and appears to be heading toward Singapore, according to a senior U.S. military source. The vessel, which the military has been tracking since its departure, could be carrying weaponry, missile parts or nuclear materials.

“It is believed to be ‘of interest,’” a senior U.S. official told FOX News.

This is the first suspected “proliferator” that the U.S. and its allies have tracked from North Korea since the United Nations authorized the world’s navies to enforce compliance with a variety of U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing North Korea for its recent nuclear test.

The ship is currently along the coast of China and being monitored around-the-clock by air.

The apparent violation raises the question of how the United States and its allies will respond, particularly since the U.N. resolution does not have a lot of teeth to it.

The resolution would not allow the United States to board the ship forcibly. Rather, U.S. military would have to request permission to board — a request North Korea is unlikely to grant.

See also:
U.S. Navy tracks North Korean ship
Navy monitoring North Korean ship: U.S. officials
Navy monitoring North Korean ship: U.S. officials
N. Korean ship under U.S. watch
Source: Military watching suspicious NKorea ship
Navy Pursues N. Korea Ship; Tensions Rise
N.K.: Searching ships would be ‘act of war’

Well, it would be rude of us to board North Korea’s ship, probably carrying a cargo of WMD, without North Korea’s permission. Besides, the U.N. sanctions resolution, that we argued over for two weeks, doesn’t allow us to board North Korean ships anyway. So, I guess we’ll just follow it instead. I have another idea. where are the SEALs? You know, it’d be a real shame if the Kang Nam were to take on water and sink under mysterious circumstances.

And how does Kim Jong-il pay for all his nefarious activities that irritate us so and yet we do nothing about? He robs and scams us blind!

Warning: Counterfeit dollars from N. Korea

The Treasury Department warned U.S. financial institutions Thursday that the North Korean government may resort to “deceptive financial practices” to get around economic sanctions.

The advisory from the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network comes as the Obama Administration steps up its efforts to prevent North Korea from furthering its nuclear weapons program.

The government said it remains concerned about “high-quality” counterfeit U.S. currency being passed from North Korea and urged banks to scrutinize attempts by North Korean customers to make large cash transactions.

Banks should be wary of attempts to suppress the identity or origin of transactions made by North Korean clients, the advisory said. Money transfers made via third parties, and repeated transfers that appear to have “no legitimate purpose” should also raise red flags.

Global Insurance Fraud By North Korea Outlined

For Kim Jong Il’s birthday, North Korean insurance managers prepared a special gift.

In Singapore, they stuffed $20 million in cash into two heavy-duty bags and sent them, via Beijing, to their leader in Pyongyang, said Kim Kwang Jin, who worked as a manager for Korea National Insurance Corp., a state-owned monopoly.

Kim said he helped arrange the shipment and watched in February 2003 as the cash was packed. After the money arrived, Kim Jong Il sent a letter of thanks to the managers and arranged for some of them to receive gifts that included oranges, apples, DVD players and blankets, Kim said.

“It was a great celebration,” he said.

The $20 million birthday present and the gratitude of its recipient, who is known as the Dear Leader, were annual highlights of a sophisticated global insurance fraud that North Korea has concocted to provide its communist leadership with hard currency, said Kim, who spent five years as an executive of the state insurance company in Pyongyang and worked for a year at its banking subsidiary in Singapore before defecting to South Korea.

“This money helps keep Kim Jong Il in power at a time he is engaged in nuclear brinksmanship,” said David L. Asher, who supervised a State Department unit that attempted to track various illegal activities by North Korea during the Bush administration. “This is the gift that keeps on giving. It has become one of the North’s largest illicit revenue generators.”

In interviews and court documents, Western insurers, U.S. officials and defectors such as Kim said the impoverished and isolated North Korean government has collected hundreds of millions of dollars from some of the world’s largest insurance companies on large and suspicious claims for transportation accidents, factory fires, flood damage and other alleged disasters. Still, recent attempts by international insurers to overturn North Korea’s claims have failed in British courts.

For years, the U.S. government and law enforcement agencies around the world have documented what they describe as state-sponsored criminality in North Korea. They have linked the North to illegal manufacturing and trafficking of drugs ranging from heroin to Viagra, as well as to expert counterfeiting of $100 bills and the production of high-quality counterfeit cigarettes.

Much less has been disclosed about North Korea’s international insurance claims, in part because they have been cloaked in legal settlements by firms with no interest in highlighting their losses.

“The exact scale of the fraud is hard to determine . . . because the insurance industry has been so gullible,” Asher said. North Korean insurance fraud “was absolutely something I should have been looking into more when I was running the [State Department's] illicit activities initiative,” he added.

See also:
US warns banks about North Korea
U.S. Treasury warns on North Korea cash transactions
US Treasury Advises Vigilance By Banks Over N Korea
N Korea Insurance Scam Funds Weapons, Enriches Kim -Report
North Korea in global insurance scam: report
North Korea accused of massive state-sponsored insurance fraud
N.Korea ‘Made Millions from Insurance Scam’

We know what they’re doing to scam us and we can’t stop them. How do I know? Because they’re still doing it. The laugh at us and just ramp up their belligerence knowing full well there will be no consequences for their international outlaw behavior. They know that all they have to do is threaten us or our allies in the region and we’ll back down and do absolutely nothing to reign them in.

N. Korea Warns U.S. of ‘Thousand-Fold’ Military Action

North Korea warned Wednesday of a “thousand-fold” military retaliation against the U.S. and its allies if provoked, the latest threat in a drumbeat of rhetoric in defense of its rogue nuclear program.

Japanese and South Korean news reports said North Korea is preparing an additional site for test-firing a long-range missile capable of striking the U.S.

The warning of a military strike, carried by the North’s state media, came hours after President Barack Obama declared North Korea a “grave threat” to the world, and pledged that recent U.N. sanctions on the communist regime will be aggressively enforced.

North Korea chemical weapons threaten region – report

North Korea has several thousand tons of chemical weapons it can mount on missiles that could be used on a rapid strike against the South, said a report released on Thursday by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

North Korea in recent weeks has raised tensions in North Asia, responsible for one-sixth of the global economy, with missile launches, threats to attack the South and a May 25 nuclear test that led to U.N. sanctions.

The report from the prestigious non-governmental organisation said the consensus view is the North’s army possess about 2,500-5,000 tons of chemical weapons that include mustard gas, sarin and other deadly nerve agents.

“If there is an escalation of conflict and if military hostilities break out, there is a risk that they could be used. In conventional terms, North Korea is weak and they feel they might have to resort to using those,” said Daniel Pinkston, the ICG’s representative on Seoul.

The North has been working on chemical weapons for decades and can deliver them through long-range artillery trained on the Seoul area — home to about half of South Korea’s 49 million people — and via missiles that could hit all of the country.

“The stockpile does not appear to be increasing but is already sufficient to inflict massive civilian casualties on South Korea,” the ICG report said.

After decades of conditioning, North Korea has learned that the phrase “actions have consequences” doesn’t apply to them. They have steadfastly refused to negotiate or, when they have, they’ve broken every single agreement they’ve ever made. The only recourse left that will have any chance of changing their behavior is the use of force, in one form or another. How long will we let this oozing pus sac on the world’s ass continue to fester, hold us virtually hostage, and generally contaminate the concept of civilization?

/why are we not stomping North Korea’s guts out?

The Hells Canyon Wilderness is an area located on the Idaho/Oregon border. Created in 1975, the Wilderness is managed by both the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service.  It has some of the most spectacular views of the Snake River as it winds its way through Hells Canyon, one of the deepest gorges on the planet.

The gateway is Baker City which is also home of the Hells Canyon Motorcycle Rally (HCMR).  In its 10th year our posse decided to take in the rally, but more importantly try out motorcycle camping.  Not because the economy is in the tank and we’re saving $$, but more from an increasing desire to try sleeping under the stars and having fond memories from younger years of multi-night backpacking trips.   A lot has been written on motorcycle camping from wiser men and outdoor enthusiasts who can provide all the secrets of camping so I won’t even try.  For me it all boils down to a good tent, air mat and sleeping bag.  More coverage on this in Day 2 wrap up.

It was a cool morning departure and after we concluded an obligatory breakfast at Elmer’s (Delta Park) we set out leaving the city encampment and natives of Portland for the Lewis and Clark highway.  We joined Washington State Hwy14 (SR14), which has sweeping views across the Columbia River.  The highway runs approximately 180 miles from the I-5 junction in Vancouver, to a junction with Interstate 82 and U.S. Route 395 in the east and just across the state line from Umatilla, Or.  After Camus, Wa. SR 14 is a two-lane highway which runs along steep bluffs nearly a thousand feet high through the Columbia Gorge.  The frequent high winds were absent this day providing us a nice ride.

We pulled over at Cape Horn then again at Beacon Rock to take in the scenic view.  In the town of Lyle the dreary weather and forest scenery gave way to sunshine and arid grasslands in a fairly rapid transition.  We stopped at the Maryhill, Wa., Stonehenge, a monument to the World War I dead of Klickitat County.  There were 4 dams on the Columbia River along our journey east. Bonneville Dam which is closest to Portland.  The Dalles Dam, the John Day Dam and furthest up the river which we saw signs, but not the dam was McNary Dam near the Tri-Cities of Richland, Pasco, and Kennewick.

We stopped at Plymouth Tavern mid-day in Plymouth, Wa., unfortunately it was jammin’ with a 40 minute wait for burgers so, we rode on and grabbed some “Great American Food” at A&W near the Umatilla Army Chemical Depot.  The Depot began storing chemical weapons between 1962 and 1969, ending up with about 12% of the Nation’s chemical weapons. You can see the earth-covered bunkers… “gofer mounds” for miles.  From 1990 to 1994 the facility reorganized in prep for closure and shipped all conventional ammunition and supplies to other installations leaving only the chemical weapons.  Disposal facilities were built for destroying the VX, Mustard and Sarin laced weapons via incineration technology.  Destruction of the chemicals has been in progress and is expected to be completed this year.

We skirted thunder showers all afternoon, but about the time we arrived in Pendleton, Or., the blue-black rain clouds intermixed with lightning meant the slight chance of getting wet was now turning into a done deal.  One of the cool things about riding a motorcycle is that you can smell everything around you and as storms approach you get a strong whiff when things are about to change as the sky starts to spit and then open’s up like a fire hose reminding you that going to “hell” is part of the journey.  The rain was spotty with the occasional “gully washer” through the Wallowa-Whitman Mountains and stopped completely by the time we passed through North Powder.

We arrived at the Baker City high school and started unloading the tent-city base camp.  Fortunately we were able to get everything set up before another thunder shower bombarded and drenched the football field.  It ended within a half-hour, but managed to test the waterproof-ness of all the tents and made for some interesting mud-dawg motorcycle entry/exits!  Santiago’s canopy saved the day!! We headed to the El Erradero Mexican restaurant where the food was authentic, margarita’s were tasty and the service was fabulous.  We walked down to Main Street and took in some of the vendor booths then made our way over to the Geiser Grand Hotel for some additional entertainment.  We ended the downtown revelry in a karaoke place which I don’t recall the name, but it was across from the Geiser Grand and the building was called Main Event.  A quirky place with the typical oddity of locals mixed with visitors.  Eventually we stretch our legs and meandered back to the base camp to enjoy our nylon equipment and cold weather camping techniques…

Hells Canyon Rally Wrap Up – Day 2 HERE.

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Setiap perjumpaan pasti akan ada perpisahan. Terdengar jadul. Namun itulah kenyataan yang harus diterima para gig goers yang biasa menyambangi acara pop gathering, We Are Pop! (WAP!) di Hey Folks! Jl. Bumi, Mayestik. Meskipun hati sendu karena WAP! Vol.8 ini akan menjadi edisi terakhir, but the show must go on. Cukup padat daftar penampil yang memeriahkan WAP! hari  minggu, 31 mei 2009.

Diantaranya adalah Jody In The Morning, Revolusi Pop, Derai Maksimal, Sarin, The Dying Sirens, Ansaphone, Black Star, Tigapagi, Sir Dandy Harrington, Santa Monica, Clover, Skalie, Endah and Rhesa, Ballads Of The Cliche, dan Fisikamatematika feat. Andri Rumah sakit. Menjelang malam, Santamonica membawa penonton seperti melayang ke negeri antah berantah dengan tiga single mereka, dilanjutkan oleh Sir Dandy Harrington, pujangga edan berdawai yang berhasil mengocok perut penonton dengan liriknya yang nggak penting tapi kocak abis. Seru!! Lalu band jebolan La Light indie fest 2009, Tigapagi meng-cooling down suasana dengan tembang akustik-etnik nan ciamik milik mereka.

Berikutnya Clover, yang malam itu tampil dengan formasi yang tidak lengkap. Namun Tia dkk tetap bermain dengan sangat manis. Kemeriahan dilanjutkan dengan penampilan Skalie, band Ska yang sudah malang melintang di dunia musik lokal. Sontak membuat penonton bersemangat mengangguk-anggukan kepala dan goyang-goyang ditempat. Akhirnya yang ditunggu oleh banyak orang, Endah & Rhesa giliran mengisi panggung. Sungguh membuat penonton terpaku dengan kelihaian duo ini memainkan gitar dan bass. Ditambah suara merdu dan permainan tangan Endah menepuk-nepuk punggung gitar layaknya percussion. Fiuhh…berakhirlah WAP! Vol.8 tepat pukul 10 malam.

Namun sangat disayangkan band tuan rumah Ballads Of The Cliché bersama Fisikamatematika feat. Andri Rumah Sakit urung tampil malam itu. Malam itupun berakhir dengan anti-klimaks. Tapi mau bagaimana lagi, kami pun belum rela berpisah dengan duo  MC WAP! Gilang “Waria Sok Aksi” dan Aziz “Doa Ibu”. Kami akan merindukan lawakan gak penting kalian.

Untuk kedepannya, semoga para penggagas WAP! mendapatkan penyegaran, ide baru, semangat baru dan energi baru untuk menggelar WAP! Vol.9 (berharap demikian). Kami akan sangat merindukan panggung mini nan sederhana yang penuh kenangan indah bersama kawan-kawan itu.

teks/foto: nando

Kamis malam, 28 Mei kemarin sebuah huru-hara musik-musik logam digelar di sebuah kafe mewah di bilangan Cikini, Mario’s Place. Metal Attack, sebuah event metal pertama yang diadakan oleh MaQnet Entertainment. Menampilkan empat pelakon metal dengan khasiat genrenya masing-masing. Tertajuk Ghaust dengan label post-metal, Divine dengan label thrash-metal, Vendetta dengan “covering Lamb of God” dan Oracle dengan “covering Megadeth”.

Jujur saja, secara selera saya pribadi menantikan penampilan Ghaust. Duo instrumentalist ini adalah band yang cukup fenomenal pada era ini. Mungkin juga kontroversial, karena mereka berani menghajar telak scene metal Indonesia yang terancam stagnan di era sekarang. Dengan konsep yang cukup kuat bertampil muka dengan musik instrumental, mereka pun berdaulat (atau didaulat?) di ranah post-metal. Sebuah ranah yang masih asing untuk dijamah di negeri ini.

Namun sesampainya di lokasi, kekecewaan hampir menghinggapi kami karena ternyata Ghaust batal main. Dikhabarkan Edo sang drummer terkena demam berdarah. Wah, seperti kena tanggung rasanya kalau memang tidak ada Ghaust. Ternyata band pengganti telah disiapkan. Tertajuk nama Sarin telah mengalih nama Ghaust di poster besarnya dengan tetap menyandang label “post-metal”. Agak sedikit bertanya-tanya juga saya. Setahu saya Sarin adalah band yang berlanglang buana di ranah post-rock dan shoegaze. Ah, tapi dengan adanya Sarin sebagai band pengganti cukup mengobati kekecewaan saya. Karena bisa membuat gelaran di malam ini menjadi lebih variatif. Walau kata ‘Metal’ sudah cukup menghajar telak di poster.

Sekitar jam sembilan kurang kami sudah ada di dalam kafe. Ternyata pengunjung masih terhitung sepi. Hanya beberapa gelintir orang saja. Terlihat beberapa di antaranya adalah orang-orang paruh baya dengan seragam dinas. Walau pakaian bukan ukuran tapi saya berani taruhan kalau mereka bukan penonton asli event ini. Sepertinya mereka adalah pengunjung kebanyakan yang sedang melakukan ritual ‘ngafe’ lepas dari jam kantor.

Lalu tak lama beberapa orang berkostum serba hitam masuk ke dalam. Sepertinya massa dari Divine dan Oracle. Beberapa di antaranya menyebarkan stiker Divine. Pengunjung terlihat sedikit lebih banyak kali ini, namun masih belum terlihat signifikan padahal malam sudah mulai meninggi dan acara sudah dimulai.

Layarpun terbuka. Pembawa acara yang ‘invisible’ pun memperkenalkan band yang tampil pertama,  Sarin.

Ini kali pertama saya dan rekan saya melihat penampilan Sarin. Dengan musik shoegazing space post-rocknya yang membius membuat kami benar-benar terpukau. Saya terkesima dengan progresi drum yang dihasilkan. Karena untuk ukuran genre ini, dinamisasi beat biasanya hampir pasti dihilangkan. Namun Sarin berhasil memasukkan beat yang terhitung progresif dalam musiknya. Akhirnya dengan ambiensi yang cukup noisy mereka menamatkan tiga materi mereka sebagai band penampil pertama. Tepukan menggema di akhir performa. Sayapun juga terpuaskan. Keren, satu kata yang terngiang untuk aksi mereka di gelaran ini.

Ada hal yang cukup lucu juga di saat Sarin tampil. Terdengar di sebuah meja yang berisi orang-orang paruh baya berbaju dinas tadi berkomentar, “Tuh kan, kalau kita datengnya sabtu, masuk musiknya”. Seorang mbak-mbak tampak dengan wajah bete berseloroh. Haha, selamat kalian terjebak di nuansa kegalauan ala Sarin ibu-ibu dan bapak-bapak! Untung tidak langsung segera mengambil garpu di meja untuk bunuh diri.

Lalu tak lama muncullah beberapa wujud yang memancing mata untuk lekat melihat. Para gadis-gadis Vendetta! Ah, Prisa saya mau komentar apalagi dengan tampilan kamu. Perpaduan gitar di tangan dan wujudmu adalah sebuah susuk bagi para penikmat metal malam itu. Kali ini tampaknya Vendetta selain Prisa tidak dengan personil asli. Chitra sang vokalis tampaknya sedikit grogi dengan salah mengucap nama promotor yang mengadakan. Setelah itupun dilanjutkannya dengan basa-basi bernuansa grogi yang membuat kesan awal menjadi momen guyonan. Selintas saya berfikiran “Duh, jadi kayak manggung di panggung sekolahan”.

Lalu lantunan cover dari nomor-nomor Lamb of God seperti “Something to die for” dilepaskan. Menyusul “Hourglass” dan beberapa materi mereka sendiri. Dari segi teknis mereka terlihat cukup menguasai. Apalagi untuk meng-cover lagu bernuansa ‘pria’ seukuran Lamb of God. Namun mungkin untuk eksplorasi di materi milik sendiri diharapkan mereka bisa lebih kreatif daripada sekedar mengekor aliran yang mereka anut.

Lagi-lagi adegan guyonan muncul di tengah aksi Vendetta. Tampaknya bagi sebagian orang yang ‘terjebak’ di event ini terlihat cukup ‘manggut-manggut’ dan ‘pelongo’ menyaksikan para gadis-gadis belia bercelana jeans mini aduhai itu bergahar-gahar ria. Sekumpulan gathering ibu-ibu dan bapak-bapak dinas tadi tampak bergeming dari posisinya. Ada lagi, di sisi kanan depan panggung seorang bapak-bapak ‘jawir’ berkostum batik tampaknya cukup ‘masuk’ dengan penampilan (atau tampilan?) Vendetta. Saat para pencari berita sedang mengambil gambar aksi mereka di depan panggung, bapak ini spontan langsung beranjak dari tempat duduknya dan mengusir wartawan-wartawan tadi. Sepertinya hiburan indahnya di depan mata terusik dengan kegiatan foto-memoto para wartawan tersebut. Setelah itu dia kembali ke mejanya dan menyaksikan dengan ‘tekun’ aksi metalcore ala Vendetta. Sepertinya Vendetta telah merebut hati sang bapak malam itu. Satu fans pun telah mereka dapatkan. Sebuah aksi yang cukup ‘panas’ bagi sang bapak.

Usai Vendetta, Divine pun naik ke panggung. Sepuluh materi sendiri bergaya old-school thrash metal yang cukup masif mereka gelar dengan rapi. “Namaste” adalah lagu andalan mereka yang juga menjadi track favorit saya. Gaya interaktif sang vokalis lumayan membawa suasana menjadi cukup santai. Didukung dengan aksi sang gitaris yang lumayan atraktif dengan berlarian kesana kemari. Lantai dansa pun akhirnya terisi oleh beberapa orang yang ‘bergoyang’ mengikuti alunan nada-nada thrashy dari Divine. Beberapa tampak hafal melantunkan lirik. Tampilan yang cukup maksimal dan cukup memuaskan bagi yang haus akan nada-nada metal lawas.

Ah, lagi-lagi perhatian saya tidak bisa lepas dari sekumpulan orang-orang yang ‘terjebak’ tadi. Sekumpulan gathering ibu-ibu dan bapak-bapak kedinasan tadi sepertinya tidak cukup kuat untuk menahan gamparan musik dari Divine. Dengan gontai mereka pun bubar jalan beringsut pulang. Reaksi serupa juga terjadi pada bapak-bapak fans baru Vendetta tadi. Mungkin kegagahannya telah habis terhisap di saat Vendetta beraksi. Hingga hajaran nada-nada thrashy yang dilantunkan Divine tak mampu lagi diterimanya. Bergegas pulang adalah jalan terbaik sepertinya. Paling tidak tidur malamnya kali ini akan lebih indah dari biasanya.

Lalu penampil terakhir adalah Oracle. Tampaknya mereka memang ingin memanjakan rasa nostalgi para metalheads tua. Bagaimana tidak, selain meng-cover nomor-nomor Megadeth seperti Hangar 18, Peace Sells But Who’s Buying?, A Tout Le Monde, Tornado of Soul dan nomor kebangsaan legendaris Holy Wars, mereka juga menyuguhi penonton dengan satu nomor panas dari Metallica, Damage Inc. dan Caught in The Mosh dari Anthrax di penghujung acara.

‘Tanggung jawab’ terbesar dari sebuah band cover adalah harus bisa semirip mungkin menduplikasi sang band asli kalau tidak akan menjadi terlihat kena tanggung. Saya hampir pol di puncak kepuasan dimanjakan oleh penguasaan teknis mereka dalam meng-cover semua materi. Namun ekspektasi saya agak sedikit turun ketika nada-nada akustik fenomenal berbau timur tengah di tengah-tengah lagu Holy Wars gagal disuguhkan dengan benar. Sepertinya memang sampai saat ini saya belum menemukan band cover yang bisa menyajikan Holy Wars dan nada fenomenalnya dengan sempurna. Yang saya cermati lagi adalah kemampuan teknis sang vokalis. Sepertinya penguasaan range bervokal dari semua subgenre metal ingin dikuasainya. Dari growling, screaming, screeching dan gaya pitch melengking tinggi ala powermetal dibabatnya. Saya cukup tertegun dengan beberapa materi milik mereka sendiri. Ada sebuah nomor balada yang kental dengan pengaruh-pengaruh band-band metal era 80′an yang cukup bagus mereka racik. Hanya saja sang vokalis sepertinya sedikit memaksakan dengan ingin menyuguhkan range bervokal ala Bruce Dickinson dari Iron Maiden atau Michael Kiske dari Helloween. Mungkin hanya persoalan mengasah kemampuan saja. Terbukti di beberapa materi cover-an kemampuan bervokalnya cukup mewakili hingga tidak mengurangi ke-Megadeth-an, ke-Metallica-an atau ke-Anthrax-an sang lagu.

Sebuah gelaran yang cukup memuaskan sebenarnya. Namun melihat jumlah pengunjung yang kurang signifikan mustinya bisa menjadi sebuah perhatian khusus bagi pihak penyelenggara. Apalagi untuk ukuran sebuah gelaran metal dengan para penampil yang tidak diragukan performanya. Entah dari segi lokasi ataupun harga tiket atau apapun sepertinya bisa menjadi hal yang harus dipertimbangkan lagi.

Di akhir acara MaQnet Entertainment mengumumkan sebuah konser besar akan digelar kembali di Indonesia. Dengan mendatangkan artis mancanegara yang sudah cukup menghajar di scene metal dunia, Arch Enemy! Tanggal 28 Oktober tahun ini kepastiannya. Semoga bisa sukses terlaksana dan memuaskan kembali dahaga para metalheads negeri ini. Kita tunggu saja!

teks: adit bujbunen al buse/ foto & video: zelva wardi

Nouvelles de la planète Zyklon B, le gouvernement du Sarin dépêche ses agents orange à envahir le Polonium. 

 Là-bas, les ceintures d’explosifs sont à la mode et en prime les foulards sont en solde. 

Guerre d’idées et vainqueur à la morale d’acier; 

Quelque part les analyses iront bon train;

Tous des préjugés remplis de clichés;

Je préfère encore écouter Mongrain.

J’ai moins peur de ces violences habituelles que du terrorisme intellectuel.  

Mon journal s’est encore trompé ce matin;

Des statistiques mal interprétées qui ne valent rien;

Le peuple va encore gober ces inepties;

Un débat sans fond qui jaillit… et moi je m’enfuis. 

Je sais bien qu’ils sont humains, mais comment peuvent-ils tous se tromper sur un même point ?

L’influence médiatique, autorité des informations;

Se pare de son manteau de professionnalisme.

Une population inapte à la réflexion;

Mais où est formé le journalisme? 

Toutes ces années à avaler de l’herbicide nous ont elles rendues si acide?

 Questions biaisées, les graphiques ne mentent pas;

Informations mal digérées par manque de temps.

Indignation populaire sur des faux débats;

Il n’y a que les intéressés qui restent contents. 

Un jours, la Une sera morte mon frère.

“If you’ve been playing poker for half an hour and you still don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” –Warren Buffett

For Celestial Nutrifoods, I guess I am the patsy. Despite having mapped out worse outcome, I have always assumed that they are not going to have much problem with refinancing. I guess I will be save by valuation and strong B/S. It is hard to associate having refinancing problem with strong B/S but strong B/S is not just about having load of cash but also how these cash come about. If I want to bet on someone on his whole life income, I don’t want to just know how much cash he has in his bank but how he gets those cash in 1st place which will also say about how he will earn his cash in the future. Strike Toto, 4D or having rich dad can fill bank account fast but usually it is easy come, easy go.

“I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn’t count; building arks does.” — Warren Buffett

Taking half the medicine doesn’t count too. I have seemed it coming for Beauty China, the mindless expansion and increasing trade receivables. I was worried and sold half of my current holdings and left with less than 1/4 of my original holding. But despite having receivables issues, Beauty China has lot of stuffs in their favour — years of brand buildings, scale, right market segment and strong B/S. But panic bankers and publicity kill this business. Basically when a company is being doomed in the way like Beauty China is currently going through, the only way to avoid it is no debt and lot of cash or cash lot more than debts. Big investors are doing the right job of trying to inject capital but it may be too late or if it drag too long, their brands can just die off as goods is not infront of consumer for buying due to lack of resources and unwillingness to carry more Beauty China brands.

While Celestial is in better position than Beauty China, worse case situation is the same for both as there is no stopping of Celestial for cutting off their healthy PRC subsidiaries away from BVI holding and subsidiaries. If that happened, shareholders will be cut off too.

Other Celestial and Beauty China, my other holdings are still healthy and still avoiding orgies of capital pumping at the wrong time. Even with the recent run up in equities, in most cases, equity is still very expensive, debt is much much cheaper and they are available. But lemming behavior is ruling the days whether it is run by owner or not. The current lemming behavior is to take advantage of the current depressed situation but wait everyone seem to be doing so, so who is taking advantage of whom? It will be interesting to look back 2 to 3 years later to see what kind of advantages have been taken.

Other than Sarin, TPV and maybe ARA Asset Management, the other has basically zero need to raise capital. Actually beside TPV, all other companies are being run in a way so that they don’t need the pumping of more capital. In a simple word, the need of capital can be foresee except bad luck so there is no excuse for the current wave of capital pumping.

What about Jaya? Debt to equity ratio of about 1X, not much different from Ezra and Swiber which raise massive amount and diluting existing shareholder of 10 to 20%. Of course they won’t come out and say they are rising capital because they are desperate for it, being in the crowd and say to take advantage of the situation is the safest way. But I won’t be surprise that they are being forced by their customer or potential customer to has a stronger B/S in order to take on bigger and longer duration projects. They lack the flexibility and going downstream, integrating model may not help to create competitive advantage but push the capital consumption even more.

Jaya has the flexibility. I have no doubt that Jaya has being “manipulating” their results every quarter because they have the flexibility to show what kind of results by controlling when to sell their vessels. Same thing here, if Jaya think that leverage is too high, they can de-leverage by reduction in scale and earn lesser. Reduction in scale may be unthinkable to other, this should not be something of alien to rental company. As long as the market value of the equipment, vessel in this case is not in a slump(equipment being dump somewhere with no interests), Jaya can always sell their vessels until debt level reduce to a level that they are comfortable. Earning lesser is not forever but dilution is.

Lastly, value creation or shareholder value in long term is being measured by per share basis. That says if a company is growing at 10% pa. But after share dilution, the growth becomes 5% pa. Now this is not much better than another company that grows by 5%pa with increase in number of shares. In fact, the 2nd company is actually creating more value as they are using less capital(assuming the starting capital is the same). The growth of many company like REL, Ezra, Swiber and REITs are impressive but when measure by per share basis, that growth lose some shine. In some case, ROE is unimpressive after all the growth and increased in capital.

Our long term economic goal (subject to some qualifications mentioned later) is to maximise berkshire’s average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value on a per-share basis. We do not measure the economic significance or performance of Bershire by its size; we measure by per-share progress. We are certain that the rate of per-share progress will diminish in the future — a greatly enlarged capital base will see to that. But we will be disappointed if our rate does not exceed that of the average large American corporation. (Berkshire Hathaway owner related principles no 3)

From the writing prompt, “The roof was leaking.” This story is set farther along in the Springfield timeline than most of the others.

It had been raining now for seven days straight. Jean Knockings brushed her hair from her face and stood from the dirt floor she’d been sleeping on. She made her way to the door of the hut and looked out at the steaming jungle. The air was so thick with moisture that it felt like a wet cloth pressed against her skin. The smell of wet animal hide radiated from the walls of the hut; it would make her stomach turn if she hadn’t grown used to it months before.

The roof was leaking. The soft drip drip drip of water hitting the ground behind her played an odd counterpoint to the insistent tap tap tap of the rain beating against the sides of the hut. She knew that if she turned to look, she’d be able to see a puddle of water directly in the middle of the packed dirt floor where the rain was leaking through the hole in the alpaca skin at the pinnacle of the roof.

In a weird way, she envied that skin. The idea of being able to gouge a hole and let all the accumulated pressure in her mind pour out was more than a little appealing. After seven days, she knew this place so well that she could literally see it with her eyes closed. With absolutely perfect recall. There were days when Jean truly hated having this ability to remember everything she saw. Sometimes, she thought forgetting would be easier.

No, she admitted to herself, not sometimes. All the time.

Remembering was hard. Especially on days like this one, in weeks like this one, where she had to sit still and just wait for whatever weather crisis or local custom was currently blocking her path to blow through so she could continue on her quest. She snorted softly to herself. Quest was too civilized a word, though one she liked better. Hunt was more appropriate. A hunt for the man who had done so much damage to so many people. The man that had sent her brother to his death and left his body on the floor.

Doctor Aakil Sarin was out there somewhere, and Jean hated sitting still. After six months of being on his tail—six months of near-misses, of dashed hopes, of travel through so many countries that anyone but her would have lost count—she’d finally tracked him down to Sao Paulo in Brazil. In retrospect she should have come here first; in a lot of ways, this place was the genesis of Sarin’s madness. She supposed that in a way, it probably felt like home to him.

She’d been so close this time. Practically close enough to taste the end of her long and so far fruitless chase. She’d even seen Sarin; seen his eyes widen in recognition, seen him flee across the crowded street and into the waiting cart before she could stop him or even speak. She could see the smug smile on his face with crystal clarity when she closed her eyes, even though she’d only spotted it for a fraction of a second before the cart whisked him off towards the mountains.

The mountains where she was now stuck, waiting for the rain to stop so she could continue on her search once again.

Jean still didn’t know what she was going to do when she caught up with Sarin. What was she supposed to do to the man who’d killed her twin, who’d manipulated them both for so long that she couldn’t ever remember a time when he hadn’t had a hand in their lives?

She remembered once, when she and John were five and John had just stolen yet another of her favorite toys, that their mother had taken Jean in her lap and rocked her softly while she cried. “You have to learn how to forgive and forget, Jean.”

Jean remembered her little girl self staring up into her mother’s eyes with bewilderment. “I can’t forget, Momma. I don’t know how.”

Her mother’s expression had been one of understanding; looking back on it now, knowing what kind of man Mr. Knockings had been, Jean wondered just how much of that was empathy, because then she’d said, “Then you’re gonna have to try twice as hard to forgive people, sweetie. Because if you don’t, you’ll get eaten up on the inside. Sometimes, with John, you just have to let things go, like water out of a sieve. How much can you hold before you burst?”

Jean’s brown eyes refocused absently into the present and she blinked quickly to hold back the tears that threatened. She hadn’t cried since she found John’s body on the floor of his office. Not once in six months. “Now what, Momma?” she whispered to no one. “How can I forgive what I can’t forget?”

So many things engraved forever into her mind’s eye: thirty-two years of life with John forever half a step in front of her, underhanded deals she’d been forced time and time again to concede to, a thousand arguments with her brother that she’d never won. And the look on John’s face, that cocky smile that used to hate so much but that she now missed so much it ached. The look he’d had the very last time she’d seen him alive, when he’d walked out the door after she’d told him that she never wanted to see him again.

Famous last words. Ones that she couldn’t ever erase, now that he was dead.

The last living Knockings looked up and watched as a drop of water collected on the torn piece of skin at the apex of the roof, solidified into a drop, and fell into the puddle on the mud floor. Like water out of a sieve.

And all at once, Jean’s impressively brilliant mind finally came to the conclusion that maybe–just maybe–forgiveness wasn’t about forgetting at all. Maybe forgiveness was just letting something leak out to puddle on the floor so you could step over it and move on.

For the first time in six months, Jean let herself feel. And as soon as she did, the tears began to fall.

Drip drip drip.

In the middle of a rainstorm in the jungle of Brazil, in a tiny animal-skin hut with a leaking roof, Jean Knockings cried. She cried and cried until she couldn’t breath, until even she had lost count of the tears, and she mourned her brother. She cried for the way John had died, and for the way he’d lived. She cried for the betrayal of their family by Aakil Sarin…and as she finally began to breathe again, she found herself crying for the doctor himself. Because his life was a dark and bitter one, and he’d never had a family, not like she’d had.

When she finally straightened again, the rain hadn’t lessened. But she took a deep breath of the damp air…and smiled. She knew what she’d do now, when she caught up with Sarin.

She’d forgive him. And maybe, someday, she could forgive her brother, too. Because the bitterness and the heartache had spilled out of her a little, like water out of a sieve. Like the leaking roof above her head. Drip drip drip.

Jean didn’t have to forget. She just had to let it go in little drops until she could leave it behind. Maybe, someday, when the pressure in her head had cleared, she might even be able to forgive herself.

She could wait. With a long sigh, Jean sat back down on the dirt floor and watched the rain leak through the roof.

It is easy to understand that in the situation of revenues below expenses, company will be making losses. But there is a trick in it, if this situation arises because revenues is falling fast together with sizeable working capital and sizeable depreciation/amortisation, then it is entirely possible that the company is still generating operating profits for low margin companies. As long as huge Capex and gearing up of working capital not in sight, these companies can be seem as “profitable”. On the other hand, companies with huge margin, low level of working capital, once revenues dropped below expenses, there is no need to second guess. They are burning cash. So it is very important for them to have sizeable cash ready to keep them alive, by burning them daily, weekly, monthly or even yearly. Borrowings will not going to be easy during this situation as the reasons for their high margin and low working capital is not longer there which also mean there are not much assets to be use for borrowing. Since earnings are not available, door for borrowing is basically closed.

ARA Asset Management and Sarin belong to the top of the 2nd group and Micro Mechanics follow not too far behind. Their B/S over the years show that they are keeping cash in the bank rather than passing cash to shareholder with minimum debts. These 3 companies can be separately categories into another 2 group.

1st group belong to ARA Asset Management. Profit is predictable and this makes company willingly to use more cash and willingness of lending by bank. But if revenues dropped by huge amount due says — being kicked out as Suntec REIT manager, then it is quite straight forward that revenues will not goes back easily. If the reasons for that dropped in revenues are too negative, revenues will never recovered and even being kicked out of this business. In another word, while size do play a part in assets management industry, it is very hard to see what the future like in medium to long term for any specify company. That includes ARA Assets Management.

Sarin and Micro Mechanics belong to the other group. Profit is less predictable and they are even less willing to borrow(bank won’t likely to lend them much too). Micro Mechanics B/S is rock solid and while B/S of Sarin is still good, is not as solid as before. Revenues can drop, like what is happening now but it won’t be permanent. This is a transition period for the level of demand and it will drop. But once it stabilise, back to normal, revenues will recovered to a level reflective of the demand. Since they does not compete on price, profitability will move back as well. Even if the level of profitability is unable to reach the earlier period, it won’t be much lower.

Can Sarin earn US$15 million this year?

Would anyone ask this question before Sarin 1Q2009 results? Revenues for FY2007 and FY2008 were US$37 million and US$33 million respectively but Revenues for 4Q2008 and 1Q2009 were US$2.5 million andUS$1 million respectively. What happened? Because there is no demand and it doesn’t matter if the quarter consists of 90 days or 60 days, if customers are not buying, sale won’t be coming in. For Sarin products, demand can be effectively zero in any given period. So Sarin was burning cash in an uneasy fast speed.

And the management is cutting expenses fast and in sizeable amount. In AR2008, projected expenses for FY2009 is US$9 million so it is actually reasonable to say Sarin need US$15 million to break even. Any amount lesser than US$15 million, cash on B/S will be burning. And if US$1 million sales per quarter continue for another few quarters, I will bet that R&D expenses will cut away and Sarin will be in surviving mode. Expect Cash call from shareholder or even selling of shares to other.

At this moment Sarin is still in the mode of waiting, cutting expenses and positioning for recovery. While revenues of US$2.5 million or US$1 million is unsustainable and unlikely to last for a long period, road to recovery can be a long and sub-profitable if the actual demand for diamond is way lower than before recession. This is why R&D is important. Which is why I think there are probabilities while Sarin will become an even more wonderful business after this, current shareholders may not able to ripe the full benefits.

Full benefits in sight

Micro Mech pushed into red and starts to burn cash in last quarter too. In fact, CMA segment pull the whole business down as Semi-con segment is still profitable. So much for the calls and logic for diversification. But stragy wise, it make sense to goes into CMA. And while cash was burning, it is unlikely to last a long period. With enough cash, low maintenance and team largely intact, road to recovery will be sweet or even better. It won’t be a long wait as Micro Mech profit can recover even in a recession.

The chances are after recovery, as long as Micro Mech continues what they are doing, it is unlikely to be value at below $40 million again. I let my actions do the talking.

From the FMS Global and UK News Desk of Jeanne Hambleton

Courtesy of Newswise Science Centre -UT Southwestern Medical Center
Dallas March 20 2009

Newswise — A new study by UT Southwestern Medical Center researchers is the first to pinpoint damage inside the brains of veterans suffering from Gulf War syndrome – a finding that links the illness to chemical exposures and may lead to diagnostic tests and treatments.

Dr. Robert Haley, chief of epidemiology at UT Southwestern and lead author of the study, said the research uncovers and locates areas of the brain that function abnormally. Recent studies had shown evidence of chemical abnormalities and shrinkage of white matter in the brains of veterans exposed to certain toxic chemicals, such as sarin gas during the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

The research, published in the March issue of the journal Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging, enables investigators to visualize exact brain structures affected by these chemical exposures, Dr. Haley said.

“Before this study, we did not know exactly what parts of the brain were damaged and causing the symptoms in these veterans,” he said. “We designed an experiment to test areas of the brain that would have been damaged if the illness was caused by sarin or pesticides, and the results were positive.”

In designing the study, Dr. Haley and his colleagues reasoned that if low-level sarin or pesticides had damaged Gulf War veterans’ brains, a likely target of the damage would be cholinergic receptors on cells in certain brain structures. If that was so, administering safe levels of medicines that stimulate cholinergic receptors would elicit an abnormal response in ill veterans.

In the study, 21 chronically ill Gulf War veterans and 17 well veterans were given small doses of physostigmine, a substance which briefly stimulates cholinergic receptors. Researchers then measured the study participants’ brain cell response with brain scans.

“What we found was that some of the brain areas we previously suspected responded abnormally to the cholinergic challenge,” Dr. Haley said. “Those areas were in the basal ganglia, hippocampus, thalamus and amygdala, and the thalamus. Changes in functioning of these brain structures can certainly cause problems with concentration and memory, body pain, fatigue, abnormal emotional responses and personality changes that we commonly see in ill Gulf War veterans.”

A previous study funded by the U.S. Army found that repetitive exposure to low-level sarin nerve gas caused changes in cholinergic receptors in lab rats.

“An added bonus is a statistical formula combining the brain responses in 17 brain areas that separated the ill from the well veterans, and three different Gulf War syndrome variants from each other with a high degree of accuracy,” Dr. Haley said. “If this finding can be repeated in a larger group, we might have an objective test for Gulf War syndrome and its variants.”

An objective diagnostic test, he said, sets the stage for ongoing genetic studies to see why some people are affected by chemical exposures, and why others are not. New studies would also allow the selection of homogenous groups of ill veterans in which to run efficient clinical trials for treatments.

Dr. Haley first described Gulf War syndrome in a series of papers published in January 1997 in the Journal of the American Medical Association. In previous studies, research from Dr. Haley showed that veterans suffering from Gulf War syndrome had lower levels of a protective blood enzyme called paraoxonase, which usually fights off the toxins found in sarin. Veterans who served in the same geographical area and did not get sick had higher levels of this enzyme.

Dr. Haley and his colleagues have closely followed the same group of tests subjects since 1995. In 2006, UT Southwestern and the Department of Veterans Affairs established a dedicated, collaborative Gulf War illness research enterprise in Dallas, managed by UT Southwestern.

Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, a longtime supporter of Gulf War research, facilitated that agreement and secured a $75 million appropriation over five years for Gulf War illness research.

This study was funded, in part, by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command.

Other UT Southwestern researchers involved in the current study included Drs. Jeffrey Spence and Patrick Carmack, assistant professors of clinical sciences; Drs. Michael Devous and Frederick Bonte, professors of radiology; and Dr. Madhukar Trivedi, professor of psychiatry. Researchers from Southern Methodist University also participated.

Dr. Robert Haley http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/findfac/professional/0,2356,12888,00.html
(Article -http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/utsw/cda/dept353744/files/522139.html)

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What was my mistake in 2008? So far the answer is no. No major mistake yet BUT there are 2 potential mistakes as of now. The 1st is BrightWorld and 2nd is Sarin. The things about BrightWorld are management and cashflow while Sarin is paying a high price. Let see if any of them will become my mistake in 2009.

While STI slump 49% as reported in the news, some of the individual stock did even worse and it happened that I hold quite a number of them. Stock like TPV declined 83% from $1.04 to $0.18 before a silence rally of 150% and lifted back to $0.45. That is still a declined of 57%. It really looks crazy as TPV is certainly nothing speculative with NPAT of US$180 million, NTA of US$880 million and being the largest assembler of LCD monitor. At $0.18, the market was giving TPV the value of $354million, less than 1.5X FY2007 earnings. At $0.45, the market was giving TPV the value of $884million, less than 3.5X FY2007 earnings. That means TPV was valued at about 8X FY2007 earnings at the beginning of the year.

Another stock that did far worse is Jaya declined 85% from $1.90 to $0.285. The lowest was $0.255. At $0.285, Jaya is having a market value of S220 million where it FY2008 earnings was $150million and NTA was $439million. This also means that Jaya is currently trade at less than 1.5X FY2008 earning and 0.5X NTA. This also means that Jaya was valued at about 10X FY2008 earnings and 3.3X NTA at the beginning of the year.

Other than that, Sarin declined 76%, Beauty China declined 71%, Full Apex declined 71%, Celestial declined 64% and Bright World declined 51%. All these did worse than STI. Because of their declined, new purchases and added on, the future is super bright as all my holdings are selling at 1.5X to 8X earnings. In fact, 7 of my holdings are selling below 5X earnings.

The bright sides for 2008 were buying stocks as it got cheaper and cheaper. This is the joy of investor or rather value investor. We love to buy cheap and it doesn’t matter how big is the unrealised losses at the interim. Realised profit and loss is important and in 2008 I was extremely lucky to make very good realised profit mainly from takeover activities for Midsouth and SP Chems and selling half of Beauty China at a very good price. 2008 was the 7th years that I make consistent realised profits and the only year I didn’t achieved that is 2001. Consistence is a dirty word but I still hope to do it again in 2009.

What I learned in 2008 that worth mention is there is a need for me to control my excitement. When the price decline, especially if I am holding on to that stock, the 1st thing that comes into my mind is “what is the valuation” or “How cheap”. And I will get excited when knowing the answer is “cheap” and usually will try to purchase some. Excitement can make me loss control and buy too much. While this is not as evil as fear in the same situation, “control” , “measure” or “balance” should be the way.

2008 was the year where I found that I can live without looking at the stock price at least once daily. Before that it was just a habit because there is no need for me to look at the stock price daily and I don’t even remember the exact price of my holdings. What made me kick away this habit? Because it is very painful to see stock selling so cheap while I am unable to buy. Haha so this helps me to kick away a habit that was with me for since I start buying stocks.

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• Damascus (Jakarta)
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Cheap stocks, cheap stocks, the market is flooded with cheap stocks or at least the places I am looking at. Buying them is like boarding a train for good return in the next 3 to 5 years. This train does not have a fixed departure time which mean it can leave anytime whether I am onboard or not. If the driver decided to have another few round drinking sessions with no urge of starting the train, I am fine with it even if cheap stock become cheaper stock. At times, I just can’t resist myself and picking up stock like Pfood which slumped like a rock in 2 to 3 days. Hey, it is my hands, I don’t mind going to train station dirty floor and look at what are being throw away.

My portfolio is in red! And it must happen after August as it was still green at that time. The feeling is GREAT. My portfolio hasn’t been in red since 2003 is I remember correctly. This is a good sign because when it is in red, the future return will be good.

My latest pet game is checking and buying stock at below BV and I just played a game today by looking at my portfolio in Wt. average. Using 30/09/08 closing price :

China Angel P/BV = 0.48X

Full Apex P/BV = 0.53X

TPV P/BV = 0.56X

Pfood P/BV = 0.58X

Celestial P/BV = 0.83X

Bright World P/BV = 0.99X

Beauty China P/BV = 1.27X

SP Chemicals P/BV = 1.52X

Jaya P/BV = 1.81X

Micro Mech P/BV = 2.15X

Sarin P/BV = 2.22X

Portfolio Wt. Ave P/BV = 1.38X

Portfolio Wt. Ave P/E = 6.01X

Portfolio Wt. Ave ROE(1 year) = 22.51%

Portfolio Wt. Ave ROE(5 years) = 29.87%

I just can’t stop smiling when looking at the valuation, individual or on portfolio basis with the exception of SP Chems. With China Angel, Full Apex, TPV and Pfood trading at below 0.6X P/BV, I have an evil thought, someone please shot the other 7 stocks so that every single one will be trading at below 0.6X BV….. Oh please don’t let it happen, if not I will rob a bank for cash.

Not a frustrating market but frustrating market place. The market is ok, current situation is like clock hit 12am, everyone is leaving the party but there is just a small exit door. The market place of market/economics commentaries is not ok, it is frustrating, especially for me. Reading these “smart Alex” which include Internet forum/blog make me feel sick. Like the latest US$700 billion bailout plan, which newspaper is not commenting about it for days? Anyway who care about what they write now a few months later? I almost wanted to dig out their past writings and throw at their ……. faces. Anyone still talk about MBIA, the talk of the world a few months back? It seem like MBIA is doing pretty ok after being dropped out of the market place. Thomas Brown from Bankstock.com did a write up on MBIA recently. I like this website as it does not belong to the usual market place.

And there is another new blog in town which is very interesting. It belongs to Sechai, someone who willing to unlearn academic theory like DCF after winning an ACCA world prize(never heard of it) on it. I wonder whether I am able to do the same….. It is not easy as I know peoples who rather use a garbage model(not necessary DCF) even after figure out it is fundamental wrong or just because there is commonly being used or no alternative model. I still remember my lecturer who is an ex. banker, unable to figure out why Value at Risk(VaR) is correct and useful said something like “It is something because every modern bank is using it.” I wonder what will he said to his new students as VaR happened to be useless in the current situation.

The only interesting stall in market place is commentaries on companies like JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway, Wells Fargo, etc with strong capital able to buy out competitors or investment at depressed price. “A kid in a candy store.” Commented by Wells Fargo Chairman. Currently, I am that kid, hoping that the candy I am buying is another kid in a candy store.

What about in stock investing? As I see from successful investors like Walter J. Schloss and other, it is specialisation and playing to our advantages or competences. Simple and easily understandable? I think so but in reality, I guess only a small percent of all investors are doing it. Disagree? Let sit down in a quite room and think about it…

When the bull was running, anything goes, “investor” will choose on the method/s they want to play. Which method? Some will use value investing, technical analysis, FATA, trading, intra-day trading, etc. It doesn’t matter whether which one is being use but whether they are making money. And for value investing, especially value investing, when bear come, it doesn’t what the numbers, share price, fundamental are saying, what matter is share price is dropping. Different strokes for different times? Or just nerd following, average or commoditising like companies where competitive advantage are not being build, lousy pay as specialisation skill is not achieved.

What are my advantages or rather disadvantages? I know nothing about chart and lousy at forecasting on what will happen to the stock price or market direction and I do not know what is the next hot stock or trying to interpret how news in the paper will affect the share price and where is the bottom for the market. But I know some basic accounting, able to read some simple annual report, understand a little on some industries. By keep doing the same things, deeper and building up these basic knowledge, I will build up my advantages someday. There is no different strokes for different times, at least for me. I am not Michael Phelps.

So what is your advantage?

Let me borrow this : There are 3 types of people 1) people who know that they know, 2) people who know that they don’t know and lastly 3) people who do not know that they don’t know

All major stock markets roar back to life after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being put into conservatorship. STI jumped 122.82 point to hit 2697.03. Last Friday 2574.21 will be a bottom for near term if this rally sustains itself.

Is this a sucker rally? I don’t know. But I would bet that many speculators will use this opportunity to buy and sell or just unload stock for some gains. Many will think that this is a sucker rally and stock will fall off the cliff someday in the near future. Perhaps it will but I will rather be a contrarian at this moment without betting any money that one of these is a not a sucker rally.

Current crisis provide me with many valuable lessons but 3 stand out because it is very hard to forget them. I wish I will never need to learn the 3rd lesson myself.

1st lesson : Leverage

This is not a new lesson but one that I need to remind myself ever now and then. There are more than enough examples in current crisis what show leverage kills.

2nd lesson : cash cushion.

I am not too sure this lesson will be well learnt. My biggest misery in this bear market is not having enough cash to keep buying. I already game over and watching from the sideline for the latest slump as all my money already spend purchasing all kind of bargains I found.

There is a different between holding on cash because thinking the market has more to drop than holding on a certain level of cash so that unexpected throw away bargain can be pick up with those cash. Bruce R. Berkowitz belongs to the 2nd type and it work wonder for him. Many good companies that I read about belong to the 2nd type as well and start buying as cheap assets are available when competitors are loaded with debts. With that it is possible that I will be loading up more Celestial at <$0.55, Sarin at <$0.30, SP Chem at <$0.50, Beauty China at $<0.50 and even Full Apex, Pfood and Jaya at <$0.20, < $0.85 and <$1.00 respectively rather than watching.

Time to start thinking on how to do it.

3rd lesson : Business model that depend on capital market will not work if capital market is “closed”

I will not forget this. Once capital market is “closed”, their business model breakdown. This is not a good model. Locally, REIT, Shipping Trust or infrastructure trust belong to this model. By paying out all generated cash and rely on capital market for equity and debts, an unfavourable capital market mean they are chocked even during the time when they are not facing much headwind in term of their businesses.. What if they are facing headwinds like those hedge funds, private funds, financial institutions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? These Trusts are not anything strategic or too big to fail.

It is still ok if it confined to REIT and Trusts. But the fact is it can happen to any company as long as they are manage in a way where constant feeding of low cost cash from finance side is require for being healthy. When low cost cash is not available, it is not just the company started to be shaky, shareholder may require pumping in more money because these companies have not much other options available. Now that is a double hit as besides pumping in money, share price usually drop big time.

These 3 lessons are interlinked but it is only until recently, I have started to think in this way. Companies that avoid one and three while doing two are those that I love to invest in as it show what kind of management they are.

It is a certainty that the market can goes crazy in both direction — upside and downside. It is, in my view that while catching a falling knife, I must always keep an eye on the upside. This also means that I must keep looking down when the bull is running. Getting the timing right, exactly when the market turn is so hard that I don’t even think about it but buying into good or decent companies with low debts and a cheap price while unable to protect the volatilizes of the share price is the way. With this I will know that 1) Companies will enter and exist a recession(if any) being equally or if not stronger than before. 2) Buying cheap can do wonder when combine with 1).

I think it will be a disappointment before I went to Invest Fair 08. I was almost exactly right. Unlike Invest Fair 07, this year the Fair was like a total all out salesmanship and the number of companies taking part in this far reduce to only Karin, CapitaLand Group(include all it REITs) and ThaiBev compare to 10 to 20 companies in the previous year. I was totally disappointed with CapitaLand group of REITs because what they were trying to do is to showcase their “success” in REIT. Their Investment relationship personnel are young and reproduce data that are being feed to them from the top. Nevertheless, I still pull out some critical information that is the reason that they are having lower debt level as compare to the rest is not just having better management but they are unable to do so. All CapitaLand REITs and CapitaLand are view as one family by bank(or MAS). One downside of this linkage is any huge increment of debt in CapitaLand can and will affect the spread of interest payment of any REIT even if they are just an associates of CapitaLand. If it is true, it will be necessary to look at CapitaLand and its group of REIT when studying any single REIT.

I have spent almost half an hrs with the IR lady from ThaiBev. I must say I was in good company. Despite her age(she look young) she can tell me at ease why more regulation is good for ThaiBev. Transportation expenses, the power of distribution, what ThaiBev has and their competitors have and ThaiBev is looking for distribution more than anything in overseas acquisition(emerging). Why Singhai and other unable to muscle into ThaiBev sprite business which is much profitable than beer in the past and harder in the future. The amount of advertising, the percentage of tax ThaiBev and the industry paying for total gov. tax income. The main reason for non alcoholic push. ThaiBev is trading at a cheap valuation, it is instantly recognisable from their businesses, scale, competitive advantage and huge free cashflow. Those Singaporean IR personnel from CapitaLand need to learn more from her. Is she buying her company stock?

Beauty China

Beauty China 1H2008 results is mind blowing. Revenues grew another 30-something % despite having done that for last 7 years. And it is this clock-like growth of 30-something % yearly that made me worry when receivable keep edging upward and reach a high point of 3 mth at end Dec 2007. Despite being in a favourable industry and place, anything that becomes clock-like cans potentially becoming dangerous. While reading 1H2008 results, the main question keep popping up is how are manufacturing margin being accounted for in the results. I have no idea but well, I can wait for the 2008 annual report to dig out more information on this and ask if I am unable to dig out any.

A little surprise is that Beauty China gives an interim dividend of 2 HK cents. The amount is little but thinking about it, I think it is about time that Beauty China give out more dividend as compare to the past not because I think so but because they are able to especially with their manufacturing factory. Looking forward for high dividend payout in the coming future.

Beauty China operates in a favourable industry of China where the runway looks endless. With the past effort put in by the management, I think the fruits are growing as Colour Zone is getting higher market share from brand recognition. Let see what the future like is for Charming lady as Beauty China keep pumping in money to build up the brand.

Jaya

Another year operating in one of the currently most favourable industry and giving out an increase dividend of 13 cents compare to 10.5 cents in 2007. With it share price keep moving lower, is Affinity Group getting impatient? For FY2008, Jaya for the 1st time throw out a presentation to showcase their success, which as I look at it, they are saying why Jaya is better than other locally listed offshore vessel building and charter companies. I think it is true. If Offshore support vessel industry is kind of nudist beach, Jaya will be one of the nudist, swimming right at the front of the wave. While there is little news from Jaya about new contracts for ship building or being pushing and marketing about deepsea vessel, it is the kind of ROE Jaya generating that separate Jaya from the rest.

How is the industry look like in the future? Bad. This is a sunset industry unless there are alot of other use for OSV other than oil industry. Vessel of smaller size will be the 1st to go and the size will keep growing as oil drilling goes deeper and deeper into the sea. But that is the future and it will happen slowly, now this is the sexist industry with extraordinary vessel price and charter rate. FY2009 and FY2010, Jaya will be pumping out vessel at record high number and this will propel the profit higher. The only problem is according to industry report, there will be 250 to 300 OSV coming online in the next 3 quarter end mar 09. Even thought they question whether how many of them will be delayed but one must not forget the impact on rate and vessel price.

Currently, the only worry I have is Jaya being push deeper and deeper into debt by increasing dividend payments and higher vessel building program. Because if I am unable to get out in time before the wave crash, low debt will keep the company in good shape even if ROE dropped from >30% to <15%.

Pfood

Pfood is still recovering from the impact by supply shortage. Operating profit increase by about 15% q-o-q, and it seem like Pfood will able to generate ROE of 10 to 15% for this year. What will be Pfood ROE when it is fully recovered? It will be interesting to know because it is possible that I can get information on what will happen to other companies like China Lifestyle, Celestial and Synear if raw material really double or triple in a short period. There was no question on the survival of Pfood even during the darkest of time because of its bullet proof B/S.

Pine Agritech is having a hard time when its venture into retail failed and the reality of price taker in intermediate product work it way back as SPI margin keep narrowing. But it B/S is strong too even when all convertible bonds are pay. Pine Agritech is a stayer as long as it does not make the same mistake of SOS too often.

The future of Pfood? It is extraordinary, almost endless runway as China grows and industry consolidation. Beside that, with it size and cashflow, Pfood can buy over other food related companies which are smaller and generating higher ROE in the future.

Sarin

Sarin results look good on paper, especially 2Q2008 if I follow what usually use by many — the increased in NPAT as Sarin reported an increased of 43% for 2Q2008 compare to 2Q2007. Without tax benefits, Sarin can easily report a drop of 20% for NPAT even as revenues increased by 18% for 1H2008. I know Sarin is operating in a tough environment as US, the major market for diamond is undergoing slowdown but as shown by the increased in revenues of Sarin, that is do not read too much from what the papers and expert saying about the slowdown of consumers spending in US and link it to Sarin. Diamond sale will not slump too much unless it is a deep and long recession. Now if you as a man are rich enough for a diamond ring, try telling your loving wife to be “sorry dear, no diamond ring for our wedding ok?”

While I am not happy with 1H2008 results but it happened to be in this way because the main reason is Sarin is destroying or does not care about reported profit as they are managing for long term. The increased in R&D is for the future, same as the increased in distribution, marketing and personal expenses. This whole industry in moving in the direction that is very favourable to Sarin that it is almost becoming impossible that Sarin will not benefit from it. Sarin future is the future of the industry.

Finite supply of diamond, increasing rich of the emerging countries causing the long term price to move upward. This make the polishing industry trying their best optimising yield per diamond as that can determine between making profit or loss for them. Sarin acquisition of Galatea which is said to be the holy grail in the industry by the board of director, is able to “see” the inside of the diamond so that planning can be done to get the highest yield per diamond. As they said, so far, no one has the technology that is able to “see” or what already in the market require to open a window(reducing yield) before any possibility of seeing and even with that it is still not prefect as compare to Galatea. Everyone in this industry is racing for the holy grail of seeing into the diamond, Guys from Galatea did it and Sarin, the strongest in the industry bought it. Now, if it is true and why should they lie, this will cause wonder to Sarin both in profit and competitiveness. Next, it seems like the polishing disc in finally on it way out of R&D. This is also another “help” to polishing industry as it reduce cost. These two new equipments, while not the only R&D Sarin is doing, they can change Sarin into a totally different animal. If nothing goes wrong, FY2009 will be the year where results come in.

Micro Mechanics

Finally, the result for FY2008 pour in, with Revenues up 10% while NPAT up 6.7%. In fact, if there is no change in depreciation rate, NPAT is flat. So no growth and dividend remain the same as FY2007 with 5 cents. MMH took a hit in 4Q2008 with lower profit with their new US factory. With increasing cost, depreciating US dollar, slowing down in semicon industry and maybe consumer spending, I see MMH focusing on building on their competitiveness, waiting and fighting their problems and like a depressed spring coil, the rebound will be high. But in the future, I think i have to accept a lower GP margin.

The future of MMH is small and by developing tool in the nanotechnology direction, MMH is in the right direction and with momentum, the future is bright.

I am in good companies.

Per VRban, manifestazione di interesse artistico svoltosi nell’estate del 2007, ho proposto un soldato con protezioni nbc.

It’s frightening to consider what the US has been capable of in the name of “national security.” What’s even more scary is what an Australian government once considered acquiescing to in the name of the Australia-US alliance:

Defence files have revealed the United States military was planning to test deadly nerve gas on Australian troops in a far north Queensland rainforest in the 1960s.

Australian Defence Department files obtained by Channel Nine show the US was planning to test Sarin and VX nerve gas on up to 200 Australian combat troops by aerial bombing areas around Lockhart River.

The plan never went ahead, but American survey teams inspected the proposed testing site.

The prime minister at the time, Harold Holt, vetoed the plan.

His former staffer, Peter Bailey, says the Australian government was concerned that its Cold War alliance with the US would be damaged if it did not acquiesce. (ABC News Online)

Sadistic fuckers.

Less than a decade earlier, Australian and British troops and Indigenous Australians had been the victims of nuclear testing at Maralinga, South Australia. British troops were ordered to crawl through radioactive fallout in order to get as much contamination on their clothing as possible. In order to facilitate the tests, the Tjatjara people of the area were removed from their traditional lands to a reserve at Yalata; nonetheless, thousands of Aborigines died of radiation exposure. In 1956, the arsehole that required licking at the expense of public safety belonged to the British government, with which the Australian government collaborated to ensure that the nefarious effects of the Maralinga tests (and those at the Monte Bello Islands off the coast of Western Australia in 1952) remained under a black mist of secrecy. Australia’s chief apologist for the testing, physicist Sir Ernest Titterton, remarked that “if Aboriginal people objected to the tests they could vote the government out,” their lack of citizenship status and ineligibility to vote notwithstanding.