Had a pretty good weekend.  I feel like I got a lot of stuff done and saw a lot of people which always makes me happy.  Going home tomorrow.  I need to get my car looked at so I’m going early.  Good old Madison.  Woot.

Tunes:
Naibu – Tigresse (track is in Fokuz Recordings player)

Today’s Oldie:
Roni Size – Heroes (Origin Unknown Remix) – Talking Loud 1997

Soundcloud says it’s reached it’s download limit so you can’t take it with you but you can still listen.  Good stuff.
SKS – Influenza Media Podcast 16

01 – Specific – The Way It Goes (dub)
02 – Submorphics – Tears Of Sorrow (dub)
03 – S.P.Y – Alone (dub)
04 – Linden & Ben-e – Refuge (Diverse products)
05 – S.P.Y – Elite Squad (Vandal records dub)
06 – SKS & Peyo – Martyrs (Diverse products dub)
07 – Enei – The Wizard (Vandal records dub)
08 – Generic,Subtone & Sol-Id – Untitled (dub)
09 – Jubei – Stingray (Creative Source dub)
10 – Mayhem – Injection (SLR)
11 – Generic & SKS – Shades Of Black (dub)
12 – Soul Intent – I Can’t Describe (dub)
13 – Qumulus & Atmospherix – Mo Better Blues (dub)
14 – Atlantic connection – Echo Park_(Bcee remix) (Influenza media dub)
15 – Generic & Mutt feat Kevin King – Forget (dub)
16 – Redeyes & Sinistarr – Solar 9 (dub)
17 – Alix Perez – Fade Away (Shogun Audio)
18 – Redeyes – Untitled (Dub)

The older I get, the more I see value in books as gifts. I’m not an avid reader – still am not – but I have made deliberate efforts to enhance my mind. It is in recent years that I delight most in receiving books as well as to spend time in a book store reading or just choosing a book. On a less serious note, this whole idea of buying a book is similar to buying a DVD in Shanghai; it’s therapeutic because you enjoy the idea of watching/reading it, but you may not actually get down to doing it.

Many people boast of an impressive arsenal of books, magazines and films but their purchases are still sitting on the shelves waiting to be devoured. We enjoy shopping for books and films because it makes us think that we actually have the time to pursue it. It’s like the photography outings I’ve convinced myself of embarking on but my archives reflect otherwise. It’s like the massively-innovative home improvement ideas that I’ve yet to implement for my room. My thoughts are incoherent but these things come to my mind when I purchased Leonard Ravenhill’s Why Revival Tarries at SKS today, together with RY and BB.

Without a shadow of a doubt I will complete reading this classic. Actually I’ve read quite a lot this year, well, at least relatively, and I am pleased with my knowledge-acquiring efforts. But I sense it’s just not enough. The plethora of books at SKS remind me that there is no end to acquiring knowledge. Knowledge could either be the most powerful tool or the whitest elephant. Read books represent knowledge. Books were written to be read. No one writes a book for the purpose of not wanting anyone to read it. Okay, I don’t know why this entry has skewed itself into a read-more-books-to-save-your-mind plea.

I reckon that something scarier than untapped potential (in unread books) is unused knowledge (in read books). I pray that I will never get so puffed up in knowledge and argument that it remains only in my head, untransferred to the way I live. Imagine if we actually lived out the instructions of just one book; it may actually change our lives. Imagine the impact of reading one book a month and taking the actions prescribed in it. We would be supremely successful, effective and influential.

But the even scarier thing is how we approach the Word and how we approach sermons thinking that it’s all “old” and “familiar” stuff respectively. We should always be filled with wonder and freshness as we get to know God more, in this instance, through the knowledge available in books. This should enable and empower us to read books, regardless of whether they are Christian, secular, fiction or non-fiction, for the glory of God. May I learn to approach acquiring knowledge with the attitude of knowing God more. After all, there is nothing new (to God) under the sun.

It seems that earnings season is winding down, but next week we have many of the key retail and apparel players reporting earnings.  Saks Incorporated (NASDAQ: SKS), BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ), Gymboree Corp. (NASDAQ: GYMB), and Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) are all reporting next week.  Next Thursday may feel like a retail and apparel earnings bonanza as we have Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS), Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD), The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE), Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA), and Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) all reporting earnings in one day.

We have provided estimates from Thomson Reuters, recent sale store sales data, share performance, and added color on what else to consider where applicable.

Saks Incorporated (NASDAQ: SKS) reports on Tuesday.  This is still deemed the troubled and challenged of the higher-end retailers, and it is after the sell-off seen so far in Nordstrom.  Earnings are expected to be -$0.12 EPS and $621.95 million in revenues.  The problem is that analysts still see a loss for the ever-important Q4 period of -$0.04 EPS and $792.7 million in revenues.  Investors are not exactly keen on retail plays that lose money in the holiday quarter.  That being said, it may take a “we should be profitable in Q4″ statement to garner much excitement.  Another issue is that Saks is expected to lose money not just for fiscal Jan-2010 but also for Jan-2011.  The good news is that Carlos Slim invested in it and it recently showed October same-store sales were up 0.7%.  At $6.00+ today, its 52-week range is $1.50 to $7.45.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is on deck next Wednesday, and we have already seen Wal-Mart and Costco data.  Estimates for the big box-club retailer are $0.45 EPS and $2.48 billion.  For the Q4 period the estimates are $0.97 EPS on $2.76 billion in revenues.  A significant problem for many investors is that BJ’s stock has been range-bound for some time despite some gains it has made.  The company’s same-store sales were -1.1%, but that included gasoline. At $36.50, the 52-week trading range is $27.26 to $40.77.

Gymboree Corp. (NASDAQ: GYMB) is also on deck for earnings on Wednesday.  The special situation and turnaround kid’s retail destination is 20% off of a recent 52-week high, but is still up about 200% from its 52-week low.  Earnings estimates are $1.10 EPS and $270.8 million in revenues.  For the holiday quarter those estimates are $1.12 EPS and $302.2 million in revenues.  While this is not quantifiable without seeing it, the notion that this is for kids does put its swine flu risks higher than most companies elsewhere in the retail stocks reporting next week.  Same-store sales were also down 4% for October.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) is on deck next Thursday, Nov. 19.  Estimates are $0.08 EPS and $957.6 million; estimates for the holiday quarter are $0.56 EPS and $1.26 billion in revenues.  With shares at $24.00, its 52-week trading range is $9.21 to $26.00.  A look at forward annual earnings estimates of $1.11 EPS for Jan-2010 and $1.26 for Jan-2011 will bring up some of the same valuation concerns we have seen elsewhere in retail.

Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL) is reporting next Thursday and estimates are $0.13 EPS on $1.19 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter ahead estimates are $0.28 EPS and $1.29 billion in revenues.  The stock is probably not overly expensive at $10.80 at 17.7-times the $0.61 EPS target for FY Jan-2010 and 14.5-times the $0.74 EPS target for FY Jan-2011.  They are not exactly cheap either.  The 52-week trading range is $3.65 to $12.95.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is also on deck next Thursday.  The new CEO has really gotten this longstanding turnaround candidate turned around and heading in the right direction.  We are not even calling Old Navy by the name of ‘Old Lamie’ any longer.  Estimates are $0.44 EPS and $3.57 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS and $4.15 billion in revenues die to higher inventory costs.  The CEO deserves praise, but the question here is one of how to value Gap shares.  It is mature and no longer the great growth story.  Estimates are $1.50 EPS for FY Jan-2010 and $1.65 EPS for FY Jan-2011.  With a $22.20 price, Gap trades at 14.8-times this year’s earnings and trades at 13.5-times next year’s expected earnings.  That is not expensive in the current climate, particularly when you consider that it has provided an upside surprise for each of the last four quarters.  We don’t expect it to come any time soon, but we have always had Gap as a break-up candidate where it could break the three major brands apart.  October same-store sales rose by 4% and the total sales rose 5% led by gains at Banana Republic and Old Navy, and dragged by Gap.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) is due next Thursday from Eddie Lampert and friends.  The shares are up massively, yet Eddie’s minions at the retail giant keep showing dull earnings.  Estimates are for another loss at -$1.09 EPS on $9.89 billion in revenues.  For the ever-important holiday quarter the estimates are $2.64 EPS and $12.6 billion in revenues.  This has a huge premium at over 70-times this year’s expected earnings of $0.85 EPS and about 50-times FY Jan-2011 estimates.  The premium is because there is a huge asset play here for Lampert’s real estate under the stores.  Investors are probably betting that Lampert traded well in investments too.  So the traditional P/E ratio here doesn’t matter.  At $72.40, the 52-week trading range is $26.80 to $79.35.  Sears has a history of very spotty earnings, yet shares are up significantly from lows and went well above our “stocks to double” price target.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) is also on deck next Thursday.  We had a severe discrepancy in estimates here when we were looking them up, so we are not going to provide that data on this stock.  Sorry.  We recently saw October sales metrics down 2%, but online sales were up 36% in October.  Again, the unquantifiable risk here is what happens in flu season because of the kid factor.  With shares around $35.00, and the 52-week trading range is $16.45 to $37.68.

Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) is on deck as a young women’s apparel retailer.  Normally, we might not cover this one, but it is a retailer that has been very range-bound because of a turnaround and because of its mixed performance metrics.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $139.79 million in revenues for the past quarter, yet the coming holiday quarter-end estimates are $0.08 EPS and $155.19 million in revenues, yet the company gave guidance of $0.04.  We will hold off on forward valuation multiples because each penny in an EPS scenario for a $3.36 stock will skew the ratios.  October same-store sales were down 1.3%.

Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is the last of the retailers we track for next Thursday.  As much as you have seen “Thursday” you may have figured that was never-ending.  Estimates for the action sports equipment and apparel retailer are $0.14 EPS and $111.89 million in revenues for the last quarter.  For the important holiday quarter-end ahead the estimates are $0.24 EPS and $130.97 million in revenues.  Before last quarter, Zumiez had a habit of beating estimates handily. Unfortunately, its same store sales in October were off by -8.9%.

Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) is on deck next Friday morning.  Estimates are $0.06 EPS and $476.2 million in revenues.  Shares are just under $13.00 and the 52-week trading range is $2.41 to $17.50.  While shares have recovered handily from 2008 lows, this one has never recaptured its mojo from when it lost its growth trajectory from 2000 to 2007.

Again, these estimates are likely to change slightly ahead of the actual earnings report next week.  This is also not every single company in the retail and apparel sector with earnings on deck and it follows a sloppy reaction from the retail and apparel reports from many peers this week.  The notion that many CEOs and CFOs this week have not been very clear on what to expect for the holiday season leaves us with even more pause after the significant stock runs we have seen.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is also on deck next Tuesday.  That one is large enough compared to the rest of the crowd that we are holding to give a very detailed analysis and preview on Monday.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 13, 2009

Anfang Oktober auf dem SKS-Revival Törn hatten wir plötzlich auf der “Ronja” einen furchtbar qualmenden Motor (direkt vor der Fehmarnsund-Brücke).Wir hatten aber Glück, es hat (noch nicht?) gebrannt und wir konnten abgeschleppt werden. Andere mussten ins Wasser springen, konnten aber von der Seenotrettung gerettet werden. (gleiches Seegebiet, zwei Wochen später) Hier ist der Bericht. Die DGzRS hat in diesem Jahr 790 Menschen aus Seenot gerettet! Da weiß man doch, dass Spenden Leben retten!

Zur Erinnerung: Unsere Qualmfahrt ist hier.

Reuters:   House Democrats unveiled their healthcare bill.

Reuters:   Senators may extend home purchase credits until April.

Reuters:   China will launch a case against The Big Three auto companies.

Reuters:   Galleon paid Wall St. bankers millions to give data that would allow a trading “edge.”

Reuters:   The SEC is looking for ways to follow fast trading.

Reuters:   CIT (NYSE:CIT) was able to secure a $4.5 billion lending facility.

Reuters:   New home sales dropped last month.

Reuters:   Big US companies are lining up against the healthcare public option.

Reuters:   Accounting irregularities may be on the rise in the US.

Reuters:   US holiday spending could fall more than expected.

Reuters:   GM’s CEO said the money the government has given it is adequate.

Reuters:   McKinsey and Akamai (NASDAQ:AKAM) are opening investigations into Galleon trading.

WSJ:   Senators and Congressman are meddling in management decisions at GM and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).

WSJ:   The FTC may get expanded powers.

WSJ:   AIG (NYSE:AIG) is getting billions of dollars from banks as credit-default-swap trades have reversed in its favor.

WSJ:   P&G (NYSE:PG) may kill some brands.

WSJ:   Motorola’s (NYSE:MOT) new phone will launch today.

WSJ:   Deutsche Bank’s (NYSE:DB) net rose.

WSJ:   Saks (NYSE:SKS) will test private sales for certain customers online.

WSJ:   Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) will limit call blocking in its voice application.

WSJ:   Some debt issuers find they do not need credit rating agencies.

WSJ:   Many economists believe that brisk GDP growth cannot last.

WSJ:   Greenhill will spin out its private equity operations.

WSJ:   GM will draw more funds, mostly to help Delphi.

WSJ:   Ford (NYSE:F) has tapped China’s Geely as the lead bidder for Volvo.

WSJ:   Costco (NASDAQ:COST) will allow customers to use food stamps.

WSJ:   US Airways (NYSE:LCC) will cut more routes.

NYT:   Nintendo will launch a larger screen DS for $222.

NYT:   Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) move into mobile GPS will be a challenge for many other companies.’

NYT:   GM is seeing an improvement in sales and market share.

NYT:   Europe approved the break up of Northern Rock.

FT:   China’s sovereign wealth fund warned of an asset price bubble.

FT:   401K funds are improving but still at the mercy of the market.

Bloomberg:   Buffett beat Gross in a global poll for which investor has the most wisdom.

Bloomberg:   The Fed is cutting purchases of paper that held down yields.

Douglas A. McIntyre

A fundamental principle of interventionism holds that one government intervention inevitably leads to more interventions, in order to “fix” the problems of the previous interventions. At the end of this road lies omnipotent government and the loss of freedom.

A good example of this phenomenon is being provided by a group called the Binational Task Force , whose co-chairman , Robert C. Bonner, is former head of the Drug Enforcement Administration. The group, which also includes two former U.S. ambassadors to Mexico, wants to reinstate the assault-weapon ban that was enacted during the Clinton era.

Guess what the group cites as its justification for such gun control: the drug war. Yes, that war that everyone admits has failed to achieve its objectives despite 45 years of vicious warfare. The task force is saying that reenacting the assault-weapons ban will reduce the drug-war violence that now pervades Mexico.

If I were a believer in extra-terrestrial life, my question would be: What planet are these people from? Do they honestly believe that gun-control intervention is going to alleviate the horrific consequences of their drug-war intervention? Can anyone really be that stupid?

Not likely. My hunch is that these people are simply looking for new excuses for gun control and are latching onto the war on drugs to advance that agenda.

Let’s restate some important principles that are involved here.

The drug-war itself is the root cause of the drug-war violence in Mexico, the United States, and elsewhere. If there were no drug laws — that is, if drugs were legalized — there would be no drug gangs, drug cartels, and drug-war murders, assassinations, robberies, bribery, and the like. All the violence associated with the drug war would disappear for the obvious reason — there no longer would be a drug war.

The black market inevitably attracts an unsavory producer, one who has no reservations about employing violence and political corruption to expand his market share.

Making drugs illegal doesn’t cause consumers to stop desiring drugs. Making them illegal simply makes it more difficult and more expensive for the consumer to acquire them. Thus, oftentimes poor drug users resort to robberies, muggings, and thefts to acquire the money to pay the exorbitant black-market prices for the drugs they seek.

Rarely does this happen in a free and open market. Competitors compete against each other on the basis of such things as quality and price. Generally, prices are within reach of most everyone.

After all, when was the last time you saw Al Capone type of gangs distributing beer? When was the last time you saw a wino mugging someone to get the money to pay for a bottle of wine?

Prohibition-related violence disappeared with the repeal of Prohibition. That’s precisely what would happen if drug prohibition were repealed.

The statist notion — the notion being advanced by the Binational Task Force — is that by reenacting the assault-weapons ban, drug gangs in Mexico would no longer be able to acquire the weaponry to initiate drug-war violence.

That’s ludicrous. For one thing, the drug gangs can acquire weaponry from all over the world. For another, the assault-weapons ban didn’t really ban assault weapons — it simply required modifications of them, such as shorter clips or no bayonet. People could still acquire AR-15s, AK-47s, SKSs and other assault rifles.

What the statists fail to recognize — or perhaps not — is that a fierce war on guns — that is, one waged like the war on drugs — would do nothing more than produce the same type of violence, if not more, than that produced by the war on drugs.

The solution to the failure of interventionism is not more interventionism. The solution is the repeal of interventionism. Americans would be wise to reject the statist recommendations of the Binational Task Force. Contrary to what these people say, it’s not possible to fix their failed war on drugs with a war on guns or with anything else. The only way to end the drug-war violence is by ending the drug war.

There are a number of ways to rank brand values. One of the most important is the level at which a brand contributes to the market value of a public company.

24/7 Wall St. asked Corebrand, the brand research and consulting firm, to look at the top 100 brands based their contribution to market capitalizaton. Using this method, the hardest working brand was Hershey (NYSE:HSY), followed  by Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

Corebrand described the process briefly to 24/7 Wall. St.

24/7 Wall St.: Corebard often refers to the brands on this list as the”hardest working brands”. How did you come to that description?

Corebrand: There are a lot of people measuring and examining the “strongest brands” or the “most valuable brands”.  Our opinion is that examining one without the other is somewhat meaningless.  How “strong” a brand is nice to know but not very relevant unless you understand how that strength benefits business.  Similarly, “value” is little more than a measure of corporate size unless you understand the drivers of that value and how to influence it. By examining the strength of the brand and it’s contribution to total market value, we can help companies and their leadership manage that strength and value over time.

24/7 Wall St.: Is there any advantage or disadvantage to having a brand value be a very large percentage of market cap in the present and as an indication of a company’s future performance?

Corebrand: The brand will need to be in balance with the rest of the company’s assets.  A company should strive to have it’s brand strong enough to fend off competitors or changing market conditions but not so strong that it becomes overly dependent on the brand as a single driver of value.  If a company can achieve and maintain its appropriate maximum strength without becoming over-dependent, it will see greater returns in bull markets and retain greater value in bear markets.

The list:

Each year, on a rolling basis, CoreBrand conducts 8,000 telephone interviews among business leaders to measure their perceptions of some of the world’s best corporate brands. Respondents are business decision-makers from the top 20% of U.S. businesses.

This senior business audience (VP level and above) represents the investment community, potential business partners, and business customers across 49 key industries. 400 respondents rate each company per year; 800 companies are measured each year. Our reports are updated on a quarterly basis to reflect any subtle changes.

CoreBrand collects financial performance data and communications investment information to understand the support behind and impact of these brands. These corporate brand strength ratings, as well as a company’s financial data are used in CoreBrand’s statistical model to determine the percentage of market capitalization that is directly derived from the corporate brand. Once that percentage is calculated, a dollar value is assigned to the corporate brand.

The percentage of market capitalization, attributable to the corporate brand. The percentage is then translated into a dollar value, based on the current market capitalization. The analysis is examined over time, to determine if the corporate brand is a growing or declining asset.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Mokendeist schleppt Ronja

Auf dem Foto war schon wieder fast alles gut, schließlich wurden wir abgeschleppt.  Wie schön, wenn man als kleine Flotille  unterwegs ist, denn so hatten wir gerade noch rechtzeitig Hilfe, ohne vor den Brückenpfeiler zu knallen. Kurz bevor wir die Fehmarnsundbrücke durchfahren wollten, stank und qualmte es gar fürchterlich aus dem Motorraum. Den Motor konnten wir ausmachen, bevor er (eventuell) brannte, aber gegen den Wind konnten wir nicht an. Der Motor ging auch nicht wieder an, später im Hafen wurde ein neuer Anlasser eingebaut.

Burki kommt rüber

angeschmorter Anlasser

Nun, nachdem auf den Schiffen alles repariert war (auf der UschiX  gab es einen kaputten Schäkel), fuhren wir wieder los. Bis nach Travemünde konnten wir nun nicht mehr, da es inzwischen Mittag war, aber Grömitz erreichten wir mit Sonnenuntergang. Schönes Segeln mit halben Wind, etwas böig, aber keine großen Wellen. Im Hafen floss dann Bier und Wein erleichterte Kehlen hinunter. Am Samstag sind wir schon 8 Uhr los, da viel Wind angesagt war. Gegen Mittag waren wir wieder in Heiligenhafen, sehr schnell, klar, bei Windstärke 7. Das konnten andere Schiffe nicht von sich behaupten, haben wir später erfahren. Hier im Anhang ist ein Zeitungsbericht Grömitz, der über die Rettungsaktionen der in Seenot geratenen Schiffe berichtet. Gleicher Ort, gleiche Zeit.  Und noch mehr Fotos gibt es hier, auf der Fotogalerie des Vereins. (Komischerweise ist derjenige, der fotografiert, nie mit auf den Fotos. Ich war aber mit!)

sicher im Hafen

Retail sales dropped 3% or more during the 2008 holiday period. Same-store sales at a number of large chains were down much more than that. The trend was so bad that thousand of store locations where closed early in 2009 and tens of thousand of people in the industry lost their jobs.

The 2010 holiday sales season may be nearly as bad as last year’s. The National Retail Federation expects a hard winter.

The NRF reports that it expects “holiday retail industry sales to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion.”  The number falls significantly below the ten-year average of 3.39 percent holiday season growth.

The news may be bad for the entire industry, but it will be particularly troubling for retail chains that have already had difficult years. Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF), American Apparel (NYSE:AAP),  Saks (NYSE:SKS) and Zumiez (NASDAQ:ZMUZ) are among the companies that need strong holidays to make up for extremely poor sales in the first three quarters of 2009.

The holiday season may be important to a number of retailers, but it is more important to the economy in general. Consumer spending still represents 70% of GDP by most estimates. The rise in unemployment and tight credit will likely keep retail activity down beyond the end of this year. That will cause more lay-offs in the industry and in turn push increased national joblessness.

Economists have to recalibrate their growth projections for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2010. A jobless recovery is one thing. A “sales less” recovery is another.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Blick von UschiX auf Ronja

Dieses Foto ist von Freitag, als die Sonne schien und es nur zwischendurch mal böig war. Schönes Segeln. In den Sonnenuntergang. Weitere Fotos und dramatische Einzelheiten kommen im nächsten Beitrag.

gen Grömitz

Wohin fährt man am besten, wenn schlechtes Wetter, Regen, Starkwind bis Sturm, Kälte und Wellengang angesagt ist? Klar: Segeln! Order vom Vereinschef: warme Klammotten, (Kotz)Tüten und was Schriftliches hinterlassen! Nun ja. Ich hoffe, es wird nicht ganz so schlimm. Vielleicht bin ich Sonntag Abend wieder zu Hause. Bis dann!

1. #136 JTX/US short: JTX ist nach dem Einstieg ein Stück in meine Richtung gelaufen, am Freitag hat die Aktie aber 4.5% nach oben zugelegt. Ich ziehe den Stop Loss auf das lokale Hoch bei $4.85 nach.
2. TKA/DE long (pRSL-long System): Die Position wird am Montag zum Eröffnungskurs glattgestellt. Dafür wird MAN/DE mit 45 Stk. in das (Muster-) Depot aufgenommen, ebenfalls zum Eröffnungskurs morgen. Ab nächster Woche verändert sich die Zusammensetzung des DAX, aber aus verschiedenen Gründen kann ich das so im System noch nicht umsetzen. An sich ist das auch nicht tragisch, da in den Backtests ja auch mit dem DAX von heute gearbeitet wurde und nicht mit dem DAX zum jeweiligen Zeitpunkt seit Beginn der Backtests.
3. #102 CAKE/US long: Die Position bleibt unverändert.
4. #108 SKS/US long: Auch diese Position wird nicht verändert.

It’s been a while since I posted anything.

It’s taken me this long to get my blood pressure back under control.

While Obamanation gives away everything but our children’s birthrights,  us “working class” folks try to figure out which bill get’s to go “past due.”

While Obama gives taxpayer money to people, so that they can give up cars they own, for car’s they’ll finance (supposedly to save the environment) we get to figure out how we’re gonna buy groceries, and keep the lights turned on.

While Obama is asking us to keep a cool head, and focus on the future, he’s personally taking the reins of the most deadly market on earth… What?

We don’t have money for healthcare, or education, or even decent Social Security benefits, but we can sure rake it in…

45,000 Americans died “in the street” last year, because they didn’t have health insurance.

I didn’t make that number up, a recent Harvard study confirmed it.

Our children are getting “dumbed down” by a system that doesn’t want to use “grades”, because “it makes some kids sad.”

Our elderly citizens, who paid into the system all their lives, American people who believed in Democracy, people who pulled together and BUILT THIS COUNTRY on the sweat of their backs…

… are forced to like like paupers, struggling from one free meal to the next, to insure that they get enough sustenance to keep them alive…

Why, I oughta… Well, never mind what “I oughta do.” The fine folks at  Homeland Security would read it, and then… I’d get dragged off to one of those “holding facilities that don’t really exist…”

Let’s just say that I’m disgusted at the way things are going. Aren’t you?

Despite a recession that knocked down global arms sales last year, the United States expanded its role as the world’s leading weapons supplier, increasing its share to more than two-thirds of all foreign armaments deals, according to a new Congressional study.

The United States signed weapons agreements valued at $37.8 billion in 2008.

Folks, that’s 68.4 percent of all business in the global arms bonanza! And we ain’t talking about “The Ponderosa”!!  Hell’s Bells! We must be doing something right, because sales are BOOMING! They’re up significantly from the  $25.4 billion we raked in, the year before.

Italy was a distant second, with $3.7 billion in worldwide weapons sales in 2008, while Russia was third with $3.5 billion in arms sales last year, which is  down considerably from the $10.8 billion in weapons deals signed by Moscow in 2007.

It seems that we make as many weapons for export, as the Chinese make “lead painted” toys for American babies! In fact, it looks like we’ve cornered the market on “weapons of mass distraction…“

Finally, we lead the world in something… I wish my arms were long enough to pat myself on the back…

Who buys these weapons? I mean… we’re talking about trucks and trucks full of “Have a Bad Day!” Where do all these arms go?

More than half the weapons sold by the US go to Third World countries.

And, which Americans control the sales of US Arms to those starving nations?

Why, it’s members of the United Nations Security Council, of course…

And I bet this will surprise you…

You’re gonna love this…

It’s just been announced that, none other than President Obama HIMSELF, will be the first American president ever to chair the UN’s Security Council.

It’s never happened before. Ever.

Now, the UN Security Council has five PERMANENT members. Think we’re on that list? You can bet your sweet Cruise Missile we are!

And… bullets are big business! The UN Security Council sells over 85% of the world’s arms.

A “Security” Council that deals in “death profits.” Doesn’t sound very “secure” to me… Except maybe to the accountants…  Hmmm…

85% of the entire World’s Arms are sold by 5 guys.

And I’m not talking about prosthetic ones… but we sure create a market for ‘em!

I feel really bad for the pressure those 5 guys must be under. After all, they have a LOT of customers to keep happy!

So… who do they sell all those bullets and bombs them to?

Well, like I said… half of the sales go to the world’s poorest countries. Now, these are countries we encourage to kill each other, so that we can then feed the “collateral damaged” survivors. And then, after we sell them the means to kill each other, we send in UN Troops to take the weapons away… Huh?

WTF?

“Send us your flour, your wheat… Hell, we’ll even take your stinking MRE’s! Our citizens are dying by the droves. We ain’t got no food, we only have enough money to buy your bullets! You got any sales on bombs coming up? We’re running low!”

Don’t count on the UN Security Council making a big deal out of this. I sincerely doubt that there’s gonna be a “town hall meeting”  about “Who does what, to who…”

Again, once more, for the record… The #1 seller of arms in the world?

Get your Obamabombs, while’s they’re hot!

Okay, she ain’t “Rosey the Riveter”, but…

“Uncle Sam sells weapons! Yes we do! We got loads of ‘em! Why don’t YOU?”

No one else comes even close.

Uh oh… Wait a minute… The Chinese are trying to muscle in on us!

“Look just because you loaned us a trillion dollars… so that our President could sell our children into slavery… so that Obama and his Council of Fools could give money away ‘like confetti on a NYC parade’, doesn’t mean we’re gonna just stand by and let you take away our gravy!”

Go on, git!

Wait! I get it NOW! If we sell all of our weapons output overseas, there won’t be anything left HERE, for us to “protect ourselves” with! Ah, now it’s getting clearer!

1. #102 CAKE/US long: Stop Loss $19.10
2. #108 SKS/US long: Stop Loss $5.95

Hält noch!

Die Stärke des Windes kann man mit verschiedenen Zahlen angeben – beim Segeln üblicherweise in Beaufort oder in Knoten oder Metern pro Sekunde. Auf unserer “Elke” war ein wunderbarer Aufkleber an gut sichtbarer Stelle mit allen drei Angaben, sogar noch lesbar, jedenfalls wenn man nahe ran ging. Praktische Sache, weil man dann gleich das Auswendiggelernte wieder vergessen konnte. Viel wichtiger als die Zahlen ist jedoch: Wie verhalten sich Boot und Crew bei welcher Windstärke.  Und da habe ich im Logbuch des Heiligenhafener Charteres 1.Klasse Yachten die folgenden Erläuterungen gefunden:

Wind um die Nase

Beaufort/ Knoten/ was passiert:

0/0         nichts

1/1 – 3  Sie brauchen einen Raucher an Bord um die Windrichtung  festzustellen.

2 /4 -6   Die Segel flattern – das Schiff steht.

3/7 -10    So langsam kommen alle an Deck und öffnen die Getränke.

4/11-15   Das Boot liegt schräg im Wasser, die halbleeren Bierdosen entleeren sich ins  Cockpit und bilden einen klebrigen gelben See.

5/16-21     An Deck wird’s feucht, unter Deck ungemütlich für nicht ganz seefeste Charaktere.

6/22-27       Dem Skipper fällt zum Glück plötzlich ein, dass man ja auch reffen kann. Kinder unter 10 Jahren und Ehefrauen fangen an zu kreischen oder still vor sich hin zu schluchzen.

7/28-33        Der Seegang ist so stark, dass überkommende Wellen ohne menschliches Zutun das inzwischen stark besudelte Deck reinigen.

8/34-40        Das Großsegel ist weg, nur noch die Sturmfock steht unter Belastung. Der Skipper steht zum ersten Mal selbst am Ruder.

9/41-47        Im Salon unten im Schiff ist eine ungemütlich und kalte, aber immerhin für eine Segelyacht recht große Badewanne entstanden.

10-12/   48-63     Wenn Sie jetzt noch draußen sind, stehen Sie morgen in der Bildzeitung.

Sahur, suatu kegiatan sarapan pagi antara jam 02-04 dinihari,

yang dilakukan only daripada bulan ramadhan oleh seluruh umat manusia didunia.

beragam acara tivi dengan warna warni keunikan, ciri khas, gelagat, rasa, dan citarasanya disuguhkan.

edisi khusus ramadhan, bak edisi khusus kartu perdana salah satu provider yang terkenal dengan si “budi” jangan bermain bom nya.

hanya di bulan ramadhan ini, kita dimanjakan oleh berbagai acara tv yang mempunyai daya tarik sendiri.

diantaranya : [menurut penelusuran limabelas menit saja]

TRANS7 dengan acara OVJ Opera Van Java Sahur

Adalah sebuah acara sketsa komedi yang dibintangi oleh: Ki Dalang Parto, Sinden Rina, Sinden Dewi Gita, Sule, Andre STINKY dan Aziz Gagap. mereka semua akan menantang bintang tamu buat jadi wayangnya OVJ, disetiap episode akan diceritakan berbagai kisah-kisah legenda, dari dalam maupun luar negeri. dan tentunya menghibur pemirsa dirumah dan di studio. dilengkapi dengan kuis berhadiah jutaan rupiah, ayo2 siapa ikutan.
OPERA VAN JAVA.. Yaaa Eeee

ANTV dengan acara Happy Sahur

Menemani santap sahur anda, Eko Patrio, Aming, Daus Mini dan Yadi Sembako akan hadir dalam program komedi show. Happy Sahur juga memberi kesempatan kepada pemirsa untuk salam – salam kepada keluarga atau sahabat yang saat itu jauh disuatu tempat. Selain memberikan hiburan, Happy Sahur juga memberikan banyak hadiah. [cuplikan dari sini] kuisnya nebak2 lagu gitu *nonton sekilas aja, g ngeh trus pindah channel* oke, lanjoott.

RCTI dengan acara Dahsyatnya Sahur

Program musik yang biasanya kita saksikan pada pagi hari ini disuguhkan lebih awal, yaitu pada saat para pemirsa menyantap makan sahur dipandu oleh Luna Maya, Raffi Ahmad, Ruben Onsu, Edrick, dan Deswita Maharani dengan keunikannya masing-masing. Acara ini menampilkan video klip Ramadan, tangga lagu religi, penampilan musisi papan atas seperti Ungu, Nidji, d’Masiv, The Changcuters dan ST 12. serta wejangan islami dengan tema-tema yang berbeda setiap harinya. selengkapnya.

TPI dengan acara Hur Sahur

Ramzi, Anya Dwinov, Indra Bekti, Fitri Tropika, grup lawak Cagur, Meneer Kriwil dan Tuan Takur serta bintang tamu lainnya akan menemani dan menghibur seluruh pemirsa dengan berbagai games unik dan kuis seru untuk menambah semangat dalam menjalani ibadah puasa. disertai dengan hiburan musik yang tentunya akan menambah semangat anda sekeluarga untuk sahur [ganyang lebi lanjut]

SCTV dengan acara Sinekuis Para Pencari Tuhan 3

sinetron bersambung yang dibintangi oleh Deddy Mizwar, Zaskia Adya Mecca, Isa Bajaj, Melky Bajaj, Aden Bajaj, Akrie Patrio, Annisa Suci Wulandari, Udin Nganga, Agus Kuncoro, Anggia Jelita, Jarwo Kuat, Asrul Dahlan, Artta Ivano, Deliana Siahaan, Tora Sudiro yang ditayangkan oleh sctv ini menjadi daya tarik tersendiri karena tidak monoton hanya lawakan, sajian musik, dll. tetapi menampilkan sebuah jalan cerita tentang kehidupan yang tentunya dapat diambil hikmahnya dari setiap kejadian.

TVONE dengan acara Menuju 1 Kemenangan

Dengan tetap mengedepankan setting kantoran yang menjadi ciri khas tvone, yang selalu ingin menjadi yang terdepan dalam penyajian berita, format acara humor tetap menjadi keutamaan digawangi oleh pelawak2 professional seperti ginanjar, komar dll. sesi ceramah oleh Ustad tidak mengurangi ciri khas acara sahur di bulan ramadhan.

METROTV dengan acara Tafsir Al-Misbah

dengan narasumber Dr. Quraish Shihab Direktur pusat study Al Qur’an. Acara ini akan memberikan pencerahan dalam setiap permasalahan kehidupan yang sering dijumpai dan bisa menjadi alternatif solusi bagi umat manusia. Pembahasan Surat yang ada di Al Qur’an. Acara ini dipandu oleh Inneke Koesherawati dan Astri Ivo.

GLOBAL TV dengan acara MTV Insomnia Sahur

VJ Adit & VJ Surya ditemani yang oleh bintang tamu akan melengkapi acara makan sahur anda, terutama anak muda. mengangkat tema2 terkini, dengan kelucuan vjnya. acara ini dilengkapi oleh musik bergambar, yaitu istilah lain dalam menyebut video clip. interaktif dengan telefon dari pemirsa untuk sekedar curhat, menyampaikan pendapat, kirim2 salam, maupun bertanya tentang sesuatu. yang jelas acara ini anak muda banget dibanding acara2 sahur yang lain.

Trans TV dengan acara SKS Saatnya Kita Sahur
Acara humor segar yang dipandu oleh biangnya lawak, komeng, adul, olga syahputra, jeng kelin. salah satu program yang banyak ditonton oleh pemirsa karena kuisnya banyak. ya to ? bener to?
humor2 segar dibawakan dengan dengan judul yang beragam di setiap episode nya.

untuk stasiun tipi lain yang belum ternoda layaknya acara diatas, kemungkinan besar karena

sinyal yang saya terima dari tipi rumah saya belepotan, penuh dengan semut, bahkan tak ada gambar sama sekali.

harap maklum.

I had a nice and healthy August options expiration with 6 positions being called out on.

Some of the positions I was not so happy on getting called out but at this point I really don’t care as I am more happy that my strategy seems to be working.

So, this is my first Options expiration update on the blog and I will create a new category for this.
I plan to do a full review of the portfolio at every opex and think in terms of how to effectively manage the positions for next opex.

So here are some profit numbers we have coming out of Aug 09 options expiration

As of Aug opex, I will get called out on 6 positions,

$C : Citigroup
We have 250 shares in the portfolio and will get called out on 200 of them as the covered call we sold for $4 strike is in the money and we will be left with 50 shares in the account. A few thoughts that come to my mind here are to buy 50 more and continue with selling covered calls. I looked at $C chart for some technical levels and I think its prudent to wait for a slight pullback to buy 50 more shares. I will post some tech analysis on C and will put this on my watch list for next week.

$UYG : Ultra Long Financial pro shares

$UYG is the toxic asset in my portfolio and I am glad that I am getting rid of this, The $UYG position was a big bummer for me and I have been holding it forever. I had at one point 800 shares of UYG averaged at 1.9 dollars or something, and that time I was hearing on the pitfalls of investing in a daily leveraged ETFs. Too late, I already own 800 shares…

Well, glad to get this out of my portfolio, I never thought I would see this day.

$KEY: Keycorp

Overall $KEY was a nice play, I had booked some profits in this name even before and I am somehow happy to let this go.

$LVS: Las Vegas Sands

This was a beauty, hate to let this go but hell this was an awesome trade I earned just over 100 bucks in option premium itself.

$SKS: Saks

Saks was a good trade, here are the details

$XHB: Home builders ETF

Not so impressed with this, should have sold the covered call a little later, but hey no one is complaining still made money on the trade

$XLF: Financial ETF

Again, sold the call too soon.

Only one option I sold expired worthless that is for $EXM, let us look at this position in more detail here

EXM: Excel Maritime shippers

I am sitting at a loss on $110 on this position right now, but I am not concerned, EXM is hitting TL support and I will be putting it on my radar, thinking of doubling down on this position

Front month contracts that we have sold (front month is now Sept) are in $WFR and $AA

Rest of the portfolio has $TAN, $TSO and $DBA, I am thinking doubling down on $TSO and selling Sept covered calls.

This has been a long post but its options expiration and what that means it is payday!!

Vanaf heden ben ik niet meer te vinden op wordpress.com.
De reden is dat ik zeker weet dat pedovriend Jansen en Paalman er alles aan zullen doen om mijn blog off line te halen. Daarom heb ik een eigen domein genomen, die op de server van Mark staat, als vriendendienst, zoals ik al eerder zei. Ik ben nog bezig met het uiterlijk van de site, maar dat gaat helemaal goed komen.

Je kunt me nu vinden op: www.yvonnevanhertum.com

Zoals je weet  ben ik woordvoerster voor oa SKS en DP. En omdat ik haast wel zeker weet dat mijn tegenstanders verwoede pogingen aan het doen zijn om me van wordpress te laten verwijderen, heb ik dit kleine probleempje voorgelegd aan Mark. Mark aarzelde geen moment en heeft me beloofd dat als ik een domein had hij een plek op de server zou vrijmaken iets wat ik natuurlijk met beide handen aangegrepen heb. Ik heb gelijk een domein geregistreerd nl: www.yvonnevanhertum.com en als mijn tegenstanders gaan zoeken dan zullen  zien dat hij op de server van “de site die ik niet meer mag noemen” zoiets heet een VRIENDENDIENST, capice?