First, the end of the world as we know it. Now, Yuan devaluation and China’s coming trade deficits! (you heard right: China trade DEFICITS). Has SocGen suddenly gone into bear raid mode, and are preparing to take on Goldman Sachs et al?

Here’s what Albert Edwards of SocGen had to say about why China will devalue its Yuan in 2010, despite personal bow-and-shake-hand calls by Obama to do precisely the opposite (h/t politico):

Imagine we are in the middle of 2010. Imagine the western economies (plus Japan) are sliding back into recession as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus reduces 2010 GDP growth back to its weak underlying rate (deficits need to widen to boost the economy). Imagine also that in 2010 the Chinese economy is beginning to roll over. China’s vulnerability is perhaps far higher than the bulls suppose, having engaged in the same sort of recession defying stimulus as the US in 2003. The US authorities in no way thought gently tapping the monetary brakes in 2005/6 would end in the biggest economic and market crashes since the Great Depression. Personally, I see the Chinese conjuncture as little different – in particular, the market’s confidence that the authorities are in control of events opens the possibility of a rude shock.

Any synchronized end in Chinese and US recovery will undoubtedly heighten geo-political tensions and accelerate the inevitable trend towards protectionism. The trend towards competitive devaluation will also increase. And in the case of China, if its economy founders unexpectedly and unemployment soars, no lever to restore growth should be ruled out, including devaluation.

To cite his black swan forecast, Edwards quotes from the analyses of two other China watches. The first from a famous bear, Jim Chanos, of Kynikos Associates, who is attempting to short the entire Chinese economy. Here’s why (h/t BizInsider):

The $4.3 trillion Chinese economy is under-performing despite a $900 billion stimulus program.

China seems to be cooking its books. For instance, it reports that car sales are surging while gasoline consumption is flat. Is that realistic? Or are state run Chinese companies just stock-piling cars?

China may have too much capacity. The central planners built out productive capacity for a booming economy but China is stalling. In nearly every sector of the economy, China is in danger of producing huge quantities of goods with no buyers.

China’s economic and political posturing signals that its leaders have no idea what is in store for them. The result may be a surprising economic collapse, akin to what happened when the housing bubble popped in the US.

Next in line to dump on the China miracle is Edward Chancellor, senior member of GMO’s asset allocation team. He says:

The deteriorating fundamentals of the Chinese economy worry many observers. Exports have plummeted. Economic growth is being driven by ever-rising levels of investment, notwithstanding evidence of serious industrial overcapacity. State-owned enterprises are rushing to build infrastructure projects of doubtful economic viability.

Yet Wall Street is once again playing the greater-fool game, often quietly acknowledging that a mania has developed but unable to resist the lure of quick profits. “When will the music stop?” one brokerage strategist asked recently about the Chinese stock market before advising clients, “Don’t leave the party too early.” Haven’t we heard that somewhere before?

Today many investors are betting that Beijing will continue driving the economy forward while preventing future market declines. Yet a similar belief in the power of governments to support inflated asset markets has accompanied many frenzies, starting with the South Sea Bubble of 1720.

A survey of 12 such events — from the British railway mania of the 1830s to the Saudi Tadawul bubble of 2005 — shows that echo bubbles have common characteristics. The typical one lasts longer than a bear market rally but not as long as the bubble that preceded it. On average, echo bubbles climb for ten months from trough to peak. Furthermore, the echo is proportionate in size to the earlier boom, averaging roughly one third of its size.

So how does China’s echo bubble measure up? Well, the peak-to-trough decline of the Shanghai composite was 67 percent; the dozen bubbles under consideration also fell by two thirds. Since the trough, Chinese stocks have doubled, thus exceeding the average echo bubble by about 10 percentage points. The Chinese echo bubble is about one third the size of the preceding boom, which is in line with the historical ratio.

The greater fools of Wall Street who argue that the Chinese market will continue rising for months to come might consider the following: Echo bubbles normally fade when valuations have climbed to about one standard deviation above the mean. This is roughly the level that Chinese stocks reached earlier this summer. The Shanghai market had been rising for ten months by August. By coincidence, this is also the average length of the dozen former echo bubbles.

Sign up for Daily email and feed at etfdesk.com

Today’s market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more…

• How Does the ‘09 Rally Stack Up Against ‘82 Bull Market?
• Albert Edwards On Gold Mania, And Why Gold Is Very, Very Cheap
• John Paulson Making Big New Bet on Gold
• Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’
• Shut up, Lloyd Blankfein!
• The Asia Pacific Fund October Monthly Update
• The Greater China Fund October Monthly Update
• The Taiwan Greater China Fund Announces Commencement of Semi-Annual repurchase Offer
• A yuan-sided argument
• Smarter Shoppers vs. Smarter Sellers
• Goldman Expects Labor Data to Drive Markets
• Lumber Futures Spike As Demand For Commodities Hits Fever Pitch
• VIX of the VIX
• The World’s Largest Shopping Mall
• BofA Merrill cuts ‘10 global semiconductor growth view
• Wells Fargo to Buy Back $1.3 Billion in Auction Debt
• Roach: China’s Market Will Crumble
• Warning to Closed-End Fund Director–Mr. Andrew Donohue keynote address at IDC Conference
• Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds (SSFR): The Best Investments to Own When Interest Rates Rise
• Brazil sparks wider currency control fears

Here is some good market analysis from The Reuters Blog - Dealzone.

“Like SocGen before them, UBS strategists are looking forward to a pickup in M&A next year.

“We expect 2009 to mark the trough in global M&A transactions and for activity to pick up in 2010 and beyond. For FY2010, globally we expect M&A activity in the region of $2.5-2.7trl, an increase of 15% on current annualised run rate for 2009 and close to levels last seen in mid 2004-05. The biggest driver of an increase in activity is likely to be the increase in risk appetite in equity markets and in the boardroom, a return to earnings growth and profitability by World Inc and a backlog of pending asset disposals.”

“Credit conditions are also supportive and we expect private equity and bank lending to pick up at some point next year.”

“We do think investors can take advantage of the growing interest in M&A as the likelihood of deals gets priced into stocks. The average take-out premium historically has been 30-40%, much of which is earned around the announcement of a deal. Merger arbitrage post bid announcement has earned a levered IRR around of 9% this year.”

“Despite a 27% decline in global M&A activity in 2009, deal volumes in Asia remained strong. At the current run rate, 2009 activity in the region will be up on 2008, taking APAC’s share of global M&A to 25%, from 6% in 1995. A meaningful pick-up in global activity in 2010 will require a rebound from trough deal volumes this year in the Americas and Europe.”

Read the full story here.

The French BNP and the Barclays’ have definitely come out on top post-crisis and given parochial attitudes in both nations, their governments are likely to plan making heavy weather on the bad financial markets industry..but I wouldn’t say these repayments signify any better practices on the part of these wannabe practitioners on the global horizon, but rather the fact that they were bystanders during the banking explosion of the last decade.

They do maintain a continued conservative stance which will come in useful, but given the history of the markets..they are much more likely to be the source of the next big black hole in a few days (years) maybe. However, with Citi planning to get out of government stakes as well, this could really absorb the prior decades’ sentiments some more and yet faster..leaving us with a blank slate in which to regulate our childrens’ future.

Coming back to the French, they do not have the depth in their markets to fund expansion and their global diaspora in terms of expansion by SocGen and BNP hardly enough to give them currency to support their non US pro Iran , pro Russia stance. They could however be the closest Euro member state for the new nations in East Europe that have been trying to get a piece of the global economics in this last decade as also they could substantially support some African nations. Being pragmatic however, they are likely to discover faster that they really do not want significant exposure in these markets

BNP recently paid $19.8 billion for Fortis (October 2008) and has therefore significantly completed its footprint in West Europe while SocGen has been active in Asia ( Offshore from Singapore, JVs with SBI in India)

China has had a long history with European Banks with the Deutsche Asiatique Bank, British Belgian Industrial Bank of China and the Sino Belgian Bank which issued Taels (North Asian currency) during Siberian-Japanese-Chinese trade ‘wars’ of the late 19th century but has never been remunerative for Foreign bank ( Comparitively with India, Chinese have very few branches and investment assets in Foreign banks)

However, as of March 2009 Bank of china had already purchased 20% in the Paris based Banque de Rothschild and with BNP out of government indebtedness, its reasons for going into China would be more mercantile than ever.

BNP Paribas, the largest French bank, said on Tuesday that it would raise €4.3 billion from investors to repay government bailout funds, The New York Times’s David Jolly and Chris V. Nicholson reported.

BNP Paribas, based in Paris, said its board had decided to repay, within the next month, the €5.1 billion, or $7.5 billion, it borrowed from the state March 31. The government would also receive a payout of €226 million on the nonvoting preferred shares it purchased.

Baudouin Prot, BNP Paribas’s chief executive, said in a conference call that the G20 meeting in last week in Pittsburgh, where world leaders agreed in principle that banks should raise more capital, had influenced the timing of BNP’s decision to issue shares, as had the lender’s share price, which is up more than 92 percent this year.

Christophe Nijdem, a banking analyst at Alphavalue in Paris, called the stock issue’s timing “judicious.”

“They had a window of opportunity,” he said. “A lot of banks will turn to the market in the months to come, and it’s first come, first serve.”

Mr. Nijdem added that, compared to American banks, European banks were more leveraged, and had to play catch up. Major Western banks are forecast to post losses of almost $2.5 trillion for the period 2007-2010, according to the International Monetary Fund.

via BNP Paribas to Raise $6.27 Billion to Repay Bailout – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.

LONDON (AFP) –

Thirty senior bankers from Societe Generale have left to set up their own hedge fund business, amid growing pressure on French banks to curb bonuses for top staff, a report said Wednesday.

The team, including the head of the bank’s global hedge funds business and several of his most senior colleagues, have left in a move backed by an American equity firm, the Financial Times said.

The new hedge fund venture will be called Nexar Capital and will be based in Paris with an office in New York, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources.

Nexar aims to raise 10 billion dollars (6.8 billion euros, six billion pounds) in assets under management, excluding acquisitions, within five years.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has taken a tough line on cracking down on bonuses for bankers, blamed in part for the global financial crisis.

French officials have war…

See the full post at SocGen bankers quit bank, start hedge fund: report

JEAN-PIERRE Mustier, the highflying banker who headed Societe Generale’s investment banking arm when the French bank was rocked by a trading scandal in 2008, is stepping down after being named in an insider-trading investigation.

The inquiry by France’s stockmarket regulator into alleged insider trading by Mr Mustier did not relate to the €4.9 billion ($8.4bn) trading scandal, according to the bank, which gave no further details of the investigation.

Mr Mustier rejected the insider trading allegations, SocGen added. A lawyer for Mr Mustier, Jean Veil, said the “probe has absolutely nothing to do with the (Jerome) Kerviel affair”, referring to the trading scandal.

As part of its insider-trading probe, the French stockmarket watchdog wants to determine whether Mr Mustier knew that the sub-prime mortgage crisis would hit the bank hard when he sold half of the SocGen shares he owned on August 21, 2007, a person familiar with the probe said.

By selling some SocGen shares before the bank disclosed sub-prime related losses, the market watchdog suspects that Mr Mustier may have locked in gains of between €50,000 and €200,000, the person said.

Mr Mustier already had been expected to leave the bank by year’s end. Still, the regulator’s probe marks an unfortunate close to the 22-year career of a man who once was expected to end up with the bank’s top job. The son of a surgeon, Mr Mustier joined SocGen in 1987 and took over the corporate and investment-bank division in 2003.

He led a largely successful push to make SocGen a top player in the cutting edge niche of equity derivatives and certain areas of fixed income.

Last year, however, Mr Mustier became the point man in answering questions about the bank’s shocking twin announcements that were made on January 2008: for €2.05 billion in writedowns on mortgage securities or credit exposure and, more significantly, a €4.9bn trading loss racked up at the hands of trader Jerome Kerviel.

In the wake of the trading scandal, Mr Mustier had offered his resignation, but it had been rejected on the grounds that he needed to help SocGen get back on-track. In subsequent months, the bank had put Mr Mustier in charge of the asset-management and investor-services division.

In its statement yesterday, SocGen also said that Robert Day, a non-executive director, was also under investigation by the French regulator for alleged insider trading, and that he had also rejected the allegations.

The bank said the proceedings against Mustier and Day came in the wake of an investigation, started in 2008, into the bank’s financial information disclosure and the trading of its shares.

“In view of the ongoing (inquiry), Jean-Pierre Mustier has decided, in the interest of the group, to anticipate his departure and has tendered his resignation, which has been accepted,” the bank said in the statement.

As recently as last Wednesday, when SocGen announced second-quarter earnings that were better than expected, Mr Mustier had fielded questions from analysts about the group’s asset management and investor services activities.

The French regulator wasn’t available for comment.

Regulators send a messageFacebook Working to Amp Up Ad Opps

MAJOR French bank Societe Generale will close its corporate lending operations in Australia.

This will leave its existing corporate clientele — borrowers of around $7.8 billion — to fend for themselves.

SocGen, which has been operating in Australia on and off for more than 25 years, has told clients who have existing lending facilities that they will not be renewed when the time comes to roll them over, and that they should seek refinancing elsewhere.

No one at SocGen was prepared to comment, either in Sydney or in the Asia-Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong.

The news of SocGen’s looming wind-down is not a bolt from the blue; on March 2, the bank’s Sydney office announced it was cutting local staff numbers, which had been at 280, by about 30 per cent.

While it has not been officially confirmed, the SocGen decision is the first in what is likely to be a series of exits from Australia by foreign banks.

Australia’s Big Four banks are poised to benefit from the retreat. The federal Government’s newly created “Rudd Bank”, to be headed by senior NAB executive Ahmed Fahour, was specifically devised to fill in any lending gaps left by such departures.

The Australian Business Investment Partnership, or ABIP as it is officially called, will start with a $2 billion contribution from the federal Government and $500 million each from Australia’s Big Four banks, for a total of $4 billion, but with the ability to borrow a further $26billion under a commonwealth guarantee.

The Government’s particular concern in setting up the ABIP was real estate financing, where many foreign banks have been active, although SocGen has focused more on resource financing.

Foreign banks are reportedly responsible for about $30 billion of the $165 billion of bank debt currently lent out in Australia in the commercial property sector.

Any rush for the exits by foreign financiers, many of whom are facing bigger problems closer to home, threatens to stretch Australia’s already creaky credit system and force borrowers to refinance at what could well be higher rates of interest, assuming of course they can refinance at all.

Foreign banks have around 30 per cent of the whole Australian banking system’s loan book, or $427 billion out of regulator APRA’s reported $1.425 trillion out on loan.

Although SocGen’s loan book in Australia is not particularly big at $7.8 billion, according to APRA’s latest statistics, the bank also holds $16 billion in trading securities, which when added to other assets held here produces a figure of $31.8 billion.

An exit by SocGen would not necessarily force the trading securities to be sold, as they can be held offshore, but The Weekend Australian has been assured that the bank’s lending book will nevertheless be wound down as loans come up for roll-over.

Under such a scenario, SocGen could be out completely within two years, but the office could easily be closed down within six months, with the loan wind-down being handled by remote control via Hong Kong.

In recent days, the federal Government has tabled legislation designed to extend ABIP’s lending range to other assets besides commercial property.

Earlier this week, Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull criticised the plan to widen the scheme, saying it would make it easier for foreign banks and other lenders to exit the Australian market.

theaustralian.news.com.au

Firms face higher rates: ANZ
SocGen Australia to cut staff by 30pc

SOCIETE Generale Australia will cut its staff levels by 30 per cent in 2009, a spokeswoman for the business said today.

The Australian workforce reduction will likely include both redundancies and relocations to Societe Generale’s Hong Kong operations.

The spokeswoman said SocGen Australia, which is the Australian operation of the French banking group Societe Generale, employs about 280 people.

“It would be crazy to say there will be no redundancies because obviously when you do something like this that does happen,” she said.

“But obviously the first point will be to trying to relocate people.”

The French bank closed the securitisation unit of its Australian-based operations early last year.

Last month, the French bank said it planned more measures to reduce costs, including potential job cuts and possibly merging the market activities at its corporate and investment division.

The company said at the time the measures should lift gross operating income by €400 million ($798 million) for 2009 and by around €1 billion for 2010.

The French bank also warned that the economic environment would remain challenging throughout the year after reporting its first-quarter earnings.

SocGen last month posted €87 million in fourth-quarter net profit compared with a €3.35 billion loss in the same period last year, resulting from the alleged trade scandal that shook the bank more than a year ago.

For the full year, SocGen made a €2.01 billion net profit compared with €947 million in 2007.

“The group has taken steps to adapt its businesses to the more uncertain environment,” SocGen chief Executive Frederic Oudea said last month.

theaustralian.news.com.au

NAB’s Fahour quits to lead Rudd Bank

« Afacerea Kerviel » se apropie de final, cel putin sub raport juridic. Pentru judecatorii de instrucite Françoise Desset si Renaud Van Ruymbeke, convocarea la Tribunalul parizian care va avea loc miercuri a celebrului trader al Societe Generale, ar putea fi ultima.

Magistratii spun ca audierile de pana acum (cu insistenta solicitate de aparatorii lui Kerviel) nu au adus elemente determinante in decizia care va fi luata. Astfel ca, dupa 10 luni de munca intensiva, aceasta faza a procesului ar putea fi incheiata.
Desi sursele judiviare citate de presa franceza nu ii sunt favorabile fostului trader, avocatii lui Kerviel continua sa arate cu degetul catre sefimea SocGen. “Suntem mai convinsi ca niciodata de complicitatea superiorilor lui Jérôme Kerviel in toata aceasta istorie. Faptul ca oficialii SocGen spun ca nu au vazut nimic si nu au stiu nimic din activitatea traderului lor, in conditiile in care criza financiara incepuse si orice banca incerca sa isi adapteze cat mai bine pozitia in piata, este foarte dificil de crezut”, a declarat unul dintre avocatii fostului trader, M. Benaïem.

România şi-a adâncit masiv în ultimii 7 ani deficitul comercial cu cele 16 ţări asiatice din ASEM
Deficitul comercial înregistrat de România cu 16 state asiatice membre ale ASEM – inclusiv China şi India – s-a adâncit de 4,5 ori în intervalul 2000-2007, pe fondul creşterii masive a importurilor, arată, luni, datele publicate de biroul statistic Eurostat.

Cererea de spaţii de birouri în România continuă să fie ridicată în ciuda crizei financiare-Regatta
Piaţa spaţiilor de birouri din România este una funcţională, urmând acelaşi trend ca la începutul anului, în ciuda dificultăţilor cauzate de tensiunile financiare actuale, susţine directorul departamentului Birouri al companiei imobiliare Regatta, Mihaela Răducanu.

BRD-SocGen şi-a sporit afacerile de factoring cu 143% în primele nouă luni, la 1,66 miliarde lei
BRD-Groupe Societe Generale, a doua bancă din piaţă după active, şi-a majorat cifra de afaceri din operaţiuni de factoring cu 143% în primele nouă luni, până la 1,66 miliarde lei (455 milioane euro), ca urmare a avansului puternic pe segmentul operaţiunilor de factoring internaţional.

România a fost a patra din UE după ritmul anual de creştere a producţiei industriale, în august
România s-a clasat pe poziţia a patra în Uniunea Europeană (UE) în august după ritmul anual de creştere a producţiei industriale, cu un avans de 1,5%, pe primele poziţii fiind Irlanda, cu 4,2%, Germania, cu 1,8%, şi Cehia, cu 1,7%, potrivit datelor publicate, marţi, de Eurostat.

Acţiunile BRD urcau până la limita maximă de variaţie, de 15%, după anunţul profitului la 9 luni
Acţiunile BRD SocGen (BRD) se scumpeau cu 14,71% la jumătate de oră după revenirea la tranzacţionare, aproape de limita maximă de variaţie, în condiţiile în care banca a anunţat un profit net în primele nouă luni ale anului de 1,038 miliarde lei (285 milioane euro), în creştere cu 52%.

Bursele europene deschid cu creşteri semnificative, după deciziile luate de oficialii europeni
Marile burse europene au deschis şedinţa de marţi în creştere, în linie cu cele asiatice şi americane, după ce mai multe guverne europene au făcut publice măsurile de sprijinire a pieţelor financiare, grav afectate de criza creditelor, arată AFP.

Fitch confirmă ratingul BRD, dar spune că o retragere a susţinerii SocGen ar afecta calificativul
Agenţia de evaluare financiară Fitch a confirmat ratingurile băncii BRD-Groupe Societe Generale, ‘A-’ pentru credite pe termen lung, ‘F2′ pentru datorii pe termen scurt şi ratingul de susţinere ‘1′, cu perspectivă negativă, reflectând posibilitatea de ajutor de la banca-mamă, în caz de nevoie.

Tăriceanu le-a spus sindicaliştilor că nu i-a convocat la Guvern pentru negocierea salariilor
Întâlnirea Guvernului cu reprezentanţii confederaţiilor sindicale nu a fost convocată în scopul negocierii salariilor, ci reprezintă o consultare privind evoluţia acestora, le-a spus premierul Tăriceanu liderilor sindicali, la începutul discuţiilor care au loc vineri, la Palatul Victoria.

Cardurile BCR nu vor putea fi folosite vineri şi sâmbătă seara pentru două ore, începând cu 22:30
Banca Comercială Română (BCR) va întrerupe sistemul de carduri al băncii vineri şi sâmbătătă seara, pentru două ore, începând cu ora 22:30, pentru efectuarea unor lucrări de îmbunătăţire a sistemului informatic, a anunţat, vineri, banca.

Bursa

Grupul francez Societe Generale, actionarul majoritar al BRD a cumparat joi circa 100.000 bucati din titlurile BRD, dupa ce actiunile au scazut puternic in ultimele zile. Valoarea totala a pachetului se ridica la circa 200.000 de euro, pretul de transfer fiind de 8,1471 lei/actiune, sub pretul mediu de tranzactionare de ieri, de 8,2 lei/actiune. Intrarea la cumparare a SocGen a compensat presiunea la vanzare de pe titlurile BRD, acestea incheind sedinta de tranzactionare in crestere cu 1,8%, ajungand la un nivel de 8,3 lei/actiune.

De la inceputul anului, titlurile BRD au cazut cu aproape 70%, de la un nivel de 26,7 lei/actiune in ianuarie. De la inceputul lunii, actiunile BRD au pierdut circa 25,9%, in conditiile in care in agitatia de miercuri acestea s-au prabusit cu 14,66%.

Societe Generale detine 58,32% din actiunile BRD si este pentru prima data in ultimii ani cand cumpara actiuni pe bursa de la Bucuresti. Printre cumparatorii de actiuni BRD s-au mai numarat in ultima perioada Patrick Gelin, presedintele bancii, si SIF Banat-Crisana. BRD are in prezent o capitalizare de 1,5 mld. euro.

La aceasta ora continua audierea lui jerome Kerviel, celebrul trader al Societe Generale, acuzat ca ar fi prejudiciat banca franceza cu 4,9 miliarde de euro. El a fost adus inca de la ora 18 la instantele pariziene si confruntat cu unul dintre sefii lui ierarhici, Christophe Mianné, seful departamentului de derivative din SocGen. La intrarea in Tribunalul parizian, Kerviel a confirmat schimbarea completa a strategiei sale. De la acuzat, el a devenit acuzator. Si`a schimbat echipa de avocati si consilierul de PR, devenind mult mai ofensiv in relatia cu fostul angajator. Jérôme Kerviel intentioneaza sa solicite Tribunalului extinderea investigatiilor si asupra altor responsabili ai Societe Generale, in incercarea de a convinge ca singur nu avea cum sa produca pagube atat de insemnate. “Jérôme Kerviel adoreste sa se faca lumina in cazul sau, mergand pana acolo incat lumea sa inteleaga  pana la capat cum functioneaza departamentul de trading, astfel incat sa fie clar pentru toti ca singur nu avea cum sa  produca pagubele de care este acuzat”, a declarat responsabilul de PR al ex-traderului.

Voi reveni

da ParigiÈ arrivata tardi, ma è comunque arrivata. È la prima punizione (forse non sarà l’unica) a carico del gruppo bancario francese Société Générale, che è stato all’inizio di quest’anno al centro di clamorose rivelazioni sul «buco» di 4,9 miliardi provocato dalle demenziali speculazioni del trader Jérôme Kerviel. Ieri la Commission bancaire, autorità di vigilanza sugli istituti di credito, ha inflitto un «biasimo solenne» e una multa di 4 milioni a SocGen per «gravi carenze del sistema di controllo interno». Il comunicato ufficiale, diramato dalla Commissione, afferma: «I problemi venuti alla luce (e in particolare le carenze dei controlli gerarchici) sono durati per un lungo periodo, l’intero anno 2007, senza che il meccanismo dei controlli abbia potuto consentire la loro individuazione e la loro necessaria rettifica». Lo scorso 20 giugno i massimi responsabili di SocGen sono stati convocati per un’audizione presso la Commissione bancaria, ma le loro parole non sono evidentemente risultate convincenti. Il punto chiave riguarda l’interpretazione dei fatti che hanno condotto alla (tardiva) scoperta del buco provocato da Kerviel. Il management del gruppo bancario francese ha sempre cercato di accreditare la tesi secondo cui il trader di origine bretone sarebbe diabolicamente riuscito a carpire la fiducia dei propri superiori e a dissimulare le sue iniziative altamente speculative, che hanno condotto SocGen a prendere sui mercati finanziari «posizioni» ad alto rischio, mettendosi in una situazione rivelatasi disastrosa.

Fonte: http://www.ilgiornale.it/a.pic1?ID=273847

Societe Generale s-a aratat mai curand interesate sa îşi dezvolte divizia de investment banking decât să ţină sub un control strict operaţiunile tarderilor săi, se arată în auditul efectuat de Pricewaterhouse Cooper, care va fi dat publicităţii peste câteva zile.

Printre punctele slabe gasite de auditori se numără multiplele eşecuri în încercările de a fuziona cu alte instituţii financiare franceze sau europene, profilul veniturilor băncii – mult mai volatil decât cel al jucătorilor concurenţi din industrie, gradului mic de penetrare pe pieţele din exteriorul Franţei, ca şi gradul ridicat de risc al unora dintre portofoliile deţinute de CIB, banca de investiţii a SocGen.

Analiştii se aşteaptă ca raportul să facă praf mecanismele de control ale SocGen, ceea ce ar putea afecta preţul acţiunilor băncii franceze.

Raportul a fost solicitat in urma scandalului legat de pierderile provocate de traderul Jerome Kerviel, in prezent consultantul unei companii din domeniul informatic.

PARIS/NEW YORK (Reuters) – Un courtier d’une filiale de la Société générale a été interpellé et placé en garde à vue mercredi dans l’enquête sur Jérôme Kerviel, trader de la banque auquel est imputée une perte record pour l’histoire financière de 4,9 milliards d’euros, a-t-on appris de source judiciaire.

Ce nouveau rebondissement est intervenu au lendemain de l’annonce du succès de l’augmentation de capital de 5,5 milliards d’euros lancée par la banque pour consolider sa solvabilité à la suite de cette affaire révélée fin janvier.

Ses suites judiciaires ont gagné le terrain financier, un cabinet juridique américain annonçant avoir déposé une plainte en nom collectif contre la Société générale auprès d’un tribunal fédéral de New York.

Cohen Milstein Hausfeld & Toll PLLC reproche à la banque d’avoir trompé les marchés sur son exposition aux crédits “subprime”, l’insuffisance de ses contrôles ainsi que son absence de réaction aux éléments en sa possession “sur les transactions des plus irrégulières et non autorisées” effectuées par Jérôme Kerviel.

La plainte vise en outre le chef d’accusation de délit d’initié à l’égard de Robert A. Day, un administrateur de la Société générale qui a vendu des actions de la banque en janvier, avant l’annonce des pertes provoquées par le trader et de dépréciations supplémentaires liées à la crise des marchés du crédit.

La Société générale s’est refusée à tout commentaire sur cette initiative. Mais elle a confirmé le placement en garde à vue d’un de ses employés dans le cadre de l’enquête judiciaire sur Jérôme Kerviel.

PERQUISITION

Le cabinet du procureur de Paris s’est montré prudent sur les éventuelles conséquences judiciaires de l’arrestation du proche de Jérôme Kerviel, annoncée par Europe 1. “Il ne s’agit pas d’un rebondissement, les enquêteurs ferment simplement une porte”, a-t-on expliqué à Reuters.

La police a perquisitionné dans les salles de marché de la Société générale, à la Défense, à l’étage de SG Securities, la filiale de courtage actions de la banque, où travaille l’homme arrêté.

SG Securities intervient sur les marchés d’actions au comptant pour le compte de la clientèle, même si elle a une petite activité de trading pour compte propre, mais pas sur les marchés dérivés sur lesquels opérait Jérôme Kerviel.

La nouvelle arrestation est intervenue à deux jours de l’examen par la chambre de l’instruction de Paris d’une demande de remise en liberté du jeune trader, écroué depuis le 8 février. L’irruption d’un supposé protagoniste nouveau dans le dossier est susceptible de peser.

“A l’avant-veille d’un débat sur une demande de remise en liberté, on invente de nouveau un complice. Ce n’est pas le fruit du hasard, on essaie d’une manière indirecte d’influencer des juges”, a estimé sur Europe 1 Me Elisabeth Meyer, l’avocate de Jérôme Kerviel.

Le nouveau suspect pourra rester jusqu’à deux jours en garde à vue à la Brigade financière. S’il est ensuite présenté aux juges d’instruction Renaud Van Ruymbeke et Françoise Desset, il peut être mis en examen ou être entendu comme témoin assisté.

Ce dernier cas de figure s’était déjà présenté avec un autre courtier d’une autre filiale de la Société générale, Moussa Bakir, placé en garde à vue la veille de l’examen de la demande d’incarcération de Jérôme Kerviel.

Pour envoyer Jérôme Kerviel en prison, la cour d’appel avait suivi le parquet en disant notamment vouloir “empêcher la concertation avec d’éventuels complices ou co-auteurs”. Mais le 9 février, après sa garde à vue, Moussa Bakir a été entendu comme témoin assisté et n’a donc pas été poursuivi.

“MOULIN À RUMEURS”

Mis en examen le 28 janvier pour “faux, usage de faux, abus de confiance et introduction dans un système de traitement automatisé de données”, Jérôme Kerviel avait été laissé initialement en liberté sous contrôle judiciaire par les juges.

Les juges et la police examinent depuis le début de l’affaire la possibilité d’éventuelles complicités, le trader affirmant que sa hiérarchie connaissait ses agissements et avait fermé les yeux.

Il a été auditionné à quatre reprises par les juges et confronté la semaine dernière à son supérieur hiérarchique direct. La Société générale continue de parler de “fraude” d’une ou plusieurs personnes et dit n’avoir rien vu avant la découverte, le 18 janvier, des importantes positions – jusqu’à 50 milliards d’euros en valeur notionnelle – accumulées sans autorisation par Jérôme Kerviel.

L’augmentation de capital bouclée par la Société générale dans un marché difficile, si elle replace la banque sur des rails solides, n’a pas dissipé les spéculations sur son avenir et sa capacité à rester indépendante.

La Tribune a relancé mercredi le scénario d’une offre de sa grande rivale BNP Paribas en indiquant que celle-ci pourrait dévoiler ses intentions juste avant l’assemblée générale annuelle de la Société générale, prévue le 27 mai.

“C’est toujours le ‘moulin à rumeurs’”, a réagi un porte-parole de BNP Paribas, ajoutant, sur un ton ironique, que “l’article ne précise pas s’il s’agit de mai 2008 ou mai 2014″.

Thierry Lévêque, Yann Le Guernigou et, à New York, Paritosh Bansal

YAHOONEWSGLOBALS.messengerData = { sStoryLink: “http://fr.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080312/tbs-socgen-interpellation-7318940.html”+’%0A’, sStoryHeadline: “Nouvelle%20arrestation%20dans%20l%27affaire%20de%20la%20SocGen”+’%0A’, sDefaultMsg: “Consultez%20cette%20d%C3%A9p%C3%AAche%20sur%20Yahoo%21%20Actualit%C3%A9s%20%3A”+’%0A’ };

Judecatorii care se ocupa de investigarea lui Jérôme Kerviel, celebrul trader care se zice ca ar fi provocat pierderi de 4,9 mld euro bancii Societe Generale, spun ca in vara acestui an vor finaliza dosarul, iar la inceputul anului viitor va incepe procesul propriu zis.

Timp de doua luni, ei au discutat cu zeci de angajati si fosti angajati ai SocGen, mai ales cu cei care aveau tangenta cu traderul banuit. Cea mai interesanta discutie mi s`a parut cea cu Martial Rouyère, seful biroului in care lucra Kerviel, care a recunoscut ca fusese prevenit de nivelul plasamentelor acestuia, dar ca “nu a citit cu atentie” acele alerte. Zuper tare! Adica e ca si cum cineva imi spune ca mama e in coma, iar eu raspund “Da, bine, dar ce zici de ciorapii mei cei noi? “

Pe de alta parte, ma gandesc cum ar arata un asemenea proces in Romania, unde judecatorii nu au specializarea finnciara necesara. Am asistat la cateva sedinte de judecata pe spete comerciale, unde am ras cu lacrimi. O firma a dat marfa de 1,5 miliarde lei vechi , alteia. Aceasta a plecat cu marfa, iar cecul nu putea fi incasat.  O teapa ca oricare alta de pe  la noi. Ce`au retinut instantele noastre: firma care a luat marfa si nu a mai achitat`o e de buna credinta, intrucat nu se poate face dovada ca intentionat nu au achitat`o. Au vrut sa o achite dar nu au avut din ce. Pe de alta parte, firma care a ramas si fara marfa si fara  bani, s`a sustras de a plata impozitului pe valoarea de 1,5 miliarde, drept pentru care merita amendata. Caz absolut real.

L’ETAT CAMEROUNAIS ACCUSE LA SGBC filiale de SocGen de Detournement de fonds !!

Cette affaire n’est pas recente.  Autour de 1997, le gouvernement camerounais n’a pas assez d’argent pour regler sa dette interieure notamment le reglement des cotisations sociales des retraites. Le gouvernement décide alors de procéder à une opération financière lui permettant de reculer l’échéance des remboursements de sa dette publique vis a vis de la Caisse Nationale de Prevoyance Sociale (CNPS).

Il émet des obligations, pour un montant total de 249,8 milliards de francs CFA (380,8 millions d’euros actuels). L’organisme de gestion de la dette publique, la Caisse autonome d’amortissement (CAA), est désigné comme dépositaire des obligations et inscrit ces titres dans les comptes de la SGBC, “opérateur agréé”.

Mais en avril 2003, lors d’une vérification, l’Etat constate que le compte n’y est pas. Bizzarement, le relevé de compte comporte des lacunes a hauteur de 123 millions d’euros !!! Ou est donc parti l’argent? Le directeur Financier envoie la balle du cote du gouvernement et clame l’innocence de la SGBC. Le Cameroun decide alors de porter l’affaire devant les tribunaux francais pour detournement et complicite de detournement avec arguments a l’appui. D’apres Le Monde LISEZ ICI

Source: FORBES