The Shivalaya Bazaar, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India

One of the magazines of the CR Media group of Singapore interviewed me about energy needs in rural Asia. My responses to some thoughtful questions have been published, although I don’t have a link yet to any of the material online. Until then, here’s a selection of questions and replies.

Do you have a case study or know of an innovative instance when an Asian country has broken the mould successfully in generating energy for its citizens in a way that is remarkable?

When you travel in rural South Asia you see that in almost every unelectrified village there is a flourishing local trade in kerosene and kerosene lanterns for lighting, car batteries and battery-charging stations for small TV sets, dry cell batteries for radios, diesel fuel and diesel generator sets for shops and small businesses and appliances. It’s common to spot people carrying jerricans or bottles of kerosene from the local shop, or a battery strapped to the back of a bicycle, being taken to the nearest charging station several kilometres away. People want the benefits that electricity can bring and will go out of their way, and spend relatively large amounts of their income, to get it. That represents the opportunity of providing power for energy appliances at the household level (LED lamps, cookstoves, solar- and human-powered products) and of community-level power generation systems (village bio-gasification, solar and small-scale hydro and wind power).

Household income and electricity access in developing countries, IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010

In areas such as western China, the South American rainforest or the Himalayan foothills, the cost of a rural connection can be seven times that in the cities. Solar power has spread rapidly among off-grid communities in developing countries, only sometimes subsidised. A typical solar home system today in South Asia provides light, power for TVs, radios and CD players, and most important charges mobile phones. At US$ 400-500, such a system is not cheap for rural Asia, especially when households are struggling with rising food and transport costs. But targeted subsidies and cheap micro-credit has made this energy option more affordable.

How can Asian countries cooperate to bring a new energy reality into Asia and balance development with conservation?

Let’s see what some authoritative forecasts say. The Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2010 from Greenpeace makes projections of renewable energy generation capacity in 2020: India 146 GW, developing Asia 133 GW, China 456 GW. These are enormous quantities that are being forecast and illustrate what has begun to be called the continental shift eastwards of generation and power. India dwarfs developing Asia the way China dwarfs India – the conventional economies today reflect this difference in scale. It’s important to keep in mind, while talking about energy, that Asia’s committed investment and planned expansion is centred to a very great degree around fossil fuel.

Factory and high-tension power lines, Mumbai, India

Certainly there are models of regional cooperation in other areas from where lessons can be drawn, the Mekong basin water sharing is a prominent example. But cooperation in energy is a difficult matter as it is such an essential factor of national GDP, which has become the paramount indicator for East and South Asia. Conversely, it is because the renewables sector is still relatively so small in Asia that technical cooperation is flourishing – markets are distributed and small, technologies must be simple and low-cost to be attractive, and business margins are small, all of which encourage cooperation rather than competition.

What could be immediately done to help alleviate energy shortage in South Asia for the masses, at a low cost? Do you have a case study of this?

Let’s look at Husk Power Systems which uses biomass gasification technology to convert rice husk into gas. Burning this gas runs generators which produce relatively clean electricity at affordable rates. Rice husk is found throughout northern, central and southern India and is a plentiful fuel. While Husk Power says that the rice husk would otherwise be “left to rot in fields” that isn’t quite true, as crop biomass is used in many ways in rural South Asia, but the point here is that this entrepreneurial small company has successfully converted this into energy for use locally.

Household income and access to modern fuels in developing countries, IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010

I think it’s important that access to energy be seen for its importance in achieving human development goals. Individuals in governments do see this as clearly as you and I, but disagreements over responsibility and zones of influence get in the way. Responsible private enterprise is one answer. If you look at micro-enterprise funders, like Acumen, they recognise that access to electricity is also about healthcare, water and housing, refrigerated vaccines, irrigation pumps and also lighting in homes so that children can study.

What issues (externalities etc) do Asian governments do not factor in when they go for new sources of energy?

The poverty factor has for years obscured many other considerations. Providing energy, infrastructure and jobs has been the focus of central and provincial governments, and in the process issues such as environmental degradation and social justice have often been overlooked. That has been the pattern behind investment in large, national centrally-funded and directed power generation plans and in many ways it continues to shape centralised approaches to renewable energy policy.

Developing Asia is still mired in the legacy bureaucracies that have dominated (and continue to) social sector programmes, which for decades have been the cornerstone of national ‘development’. Energy is still seen as a good to be allocated by the government, even if the government does not produce it. And it still takes precedence over other considerations – ecosystem health, sustainable natural resource management – because of this approach. If India has a huge programme to generate hydroelectricity from the rivers in the Himalaya, there is now ample evidence to show both the alterations to river ecosystems downstream and the drastic impacts of submergence of river valleys, let alone the enormous carbon footprint of constructing a dam and the associated hydropower systems. Yet this is seen as using a ‘renewable’ source of energy.

These are the leaders who can built nations & who are not afraid from the revelations of wikileaks. Unfortunately in Pakistan we don’t have these type of leaders.

It always astounds me that in a country where military run businesses and feudal dominate the agriculture, clergy the morals, and the capitalists the rest; it’s the role of our representatives in the assemblies takes verbal trash. I piety them… Like all others they are able to commit all heinous crimes under heavens that our penal code could suggest, but unlike anyone else fail to pass a basic degree exam when corruption and cheating is rampant. I am serious here. Are n’t our politicians sharp enough to pass their degree exams like a large majority of other students! Too lame a question to ask I guess. But seriously why do we lynch politicians alone….probably they are the only ones whom we can relate to!

I don’t blame these politicians as they too are chotas in our political quagmire. Most of them coming from influential backgrounds have too much of expectations to cater too. Again it’s the family pressure and their societal influence that puts them at tight spots. Probably like middle class families who pressurizes their children to become doctors, engineers, CAs, MBAs and thanks to lawyers movement even lawyers, it’s a pretty tough bargain for our ‘political students’ who even at the tender age of 50 comes on mass media and say they are still political students and learning the trade… cliché it may sound….but are well appreciated and patronized in their circles as they are still chotas and not a serious contester for upsetting their respective ustads!

The perpetuity of chota culture which has transcended from households to decision makers in assemblies is the cause of economic and management mayhem in our country. As the political chotas crosses lines and aligns with usurpers, even the foundations of our democratic system is repeatedly challenged…chotas of our world needs to be empowered by their respective ustaads, and allowed to graduate from the chota mindset and learn to excel in their respective concerns…the status of ustad is never compromised when the disciple exceeds him, but is evaluated without bounds….

No administrative charges will be applied to your support, every paisa will be sent to The Institute for Social Movements-Pakistan (ISM PAK) in Hyderabad (Sindh), working with theOrangi Pilot Project (OPP) on emergency response and support. ISM PAK and OPP urgently need funds for rations, medicine, shelters, drinking water, infant diet support, livestock fodder and vaccination, hygiene kits, makeshift toilets and schooling camps.

– From Urooj Zia in Kathmandu

Young riksha drivers in Dhaka. Photos: Beena Sarwar

My column Personal Political, written July 25, 2010, published in The News on Sunday and Hardnews. Subsequently the Bangladesh Supreme Court upheld a ruling that upheld a ban on using religion in politics. It won’t resolve all issues of course, but it’s a step forward and I hope we see that day in Pakistan in the not too distant future. I like Advocate G. M. Lakho’s stand: Say no to the state religion

Shonar Bangla

Beena Sarwar

“Acha, yahan bhi constitutional amendments chal rahe hain,” observed a friend, scanning headlines in The Daily Star as we waited at Dhaka International Airport for a much-delayed flight to Karachi. Her comment about “constitutional amendments going on here also” highlighted something that’s always struck me as curious: the bizarre parallels of Bangladeshi politics with Pakistan, since Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan in 1971.

We’ve had prolonged periods of military rule and short-lived elected governments, the constant battle between those trying to conduct politics through religion and those struggling for democratic values, and now, as my friend commented, attempts to purge the constitution of amendments imposed by military dictators.

Passersby at a busy fish market in Dhaka.

We’ve seen political assassinations of popular leaders Mujibur Rehman, killed by army officers in 1975, and Z.A. Bhutto, hanged by a military ruler in 1977; military coups by the Generals Zia (Ziaul Haq in Pakistan, 1977 and Gen. Ziaur Rehman in Bangladesh, 1981); spirited struggles for democracy led by the assassinated leaders’ daughters (Sheikh Hasina, Benazir Bhutto); and ‘train marches’ (in 1994 by opposition leaders (Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh).

Bangladesh has done well in several areas after gaining independence. Although we still have similar bureaucracies that continue to try and oppress their own peoples (a post-colonial Southasian malaise), Bangladesh has left Pakistan far behind in terms of health, education and gender – and population rates. (In 1971, then East Pakistan’s 70 million population outnumbered West Pakistan’s 60 million. Pakistan’s over 170 million population now outstrips Bangladesh’s 160 million.)

A recent UNDP report on the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) places Bangladesh at 73 out of 104 countries, one step better than India’s 74, and only shortly behind Pakistan’s overall 70. In education, Bangladesh scores better than India, Pakistan and Nepal. A whopping 89 percent of Bangladesh’s poor households’ children attend school. It’s the other way round in Pakistan.

Street scene - bustling, vibrant Dhaka

Bangladesh followed in Pakistan’s footsteps in making Friday the weekly holiday instead of Sunday (despite protests by the business community). However, it has not managed to reverse the decision, as Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan did when was Prime Minister. There was not a squeak out of the religious lobby when Sharif made this move (imagine the uproar if Benazir Bhutto had done it).

But the weekly holiday issue is minor compared to the kind of laws enacted by dictators in Pakistan in the name of religion. Fortunately, so far Bangladesh has not capitulated to pressure from the religious right wing to declare Ahmedis as non-Muslims, or introduce the kind of blasphemy law that Gen. Zia pushed through in Pakistan.

Sections 295-B (defiling the Holy Quran) and 295-C (defaming the Prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him) were added to the original Section 295 of the Pakistan Penal Code that dealt with penalties for outraging religious feelings. Since the addition of Sections B and C (that respectively prescribe life imprisonment and death for convicts) not only have these laws been used to settle scores but numerous alleged blasphemers have been killed – lynched by mobs, shot dead by zealots, on the streets, in police custody, in court premises. (In the most recent case, two Christian brothers were shot dead in Faisalabad as they were being produced in court for alleged blasphemy).

As with the blasphemy laws that have led to widespread abuse, Bangladesh’s special laws against acid attacks have contributed, say lawyers, to a rise in acid attack cases (mostly on women) and to a new set of abuses such as the case of the man who threw acid on his own wife in order to frame someone he had a feud with, whom he then nominated in the first information report (FIR).

Prevent muggings - lock yourself in!

Both our governments claim to be democracies but continue to use undemocratic practices to crush political dissent or differences of opinion. The poor in both countries continue to barely eke out an existence for themselves. Many of Dhaka’s bustling streets are now off limits to the ubiquitous cycle rickshaw with its distinctive ‘rickshaw art’ that is akin to Pakistan’s ‘truck art’. However, they are still very much visible (policemen are known to puncture their tyres with nails attached to sticks if they cross their boundaries). Intriguingly, the green CNG-powered auto rickhaws are protected by steel grills that serve as a protection against the muggings that frequently took place, we were told.

As the PIA plane took off, soaring over the flat, verdant fields dotted by still bodies of water mirroring the monsoon skies, another parallel between our countries struck me: the remarkable resilience of our people who continue to fight on, and who will one day, prevail. Then we’ll hopefully have a more positive set of parallels to compare.

(ends)

Bangladesh bans religion in politics

DHAKA, Jan 4: Bangladesh’s dozens of Islamic political parties must drop Islam from their name and stop using religion when on the campaign trail following a court ruling, the country’s law minister said on Monday.

The Supreme Court on Sunday upheld an earlier ruling by the High Court from 2005 throwing out the fifth amendment of the constitution, which had allowed religion-based politics to flourish in the country since the late 1970s.

“All politics based on religion are going to be banned as per the original constitution,” Law Minister Shafique Ahmed said.

The verdict does not affect constitutional amendments that made Islam the Muslim majority nation’s state religion in 1988 and incorporated a Quranic verse in the constitution.

The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which is allied with two Islamic parties, said it would appeal the verdict. Bangladesh’s original constitution barred the use of religion in politics.

“We want to reinstate the original constitution. Secularism was a pillar of the 1972 constitution,” said Mr Ahmed.

The move follows the Awami League’s sweep to power in 2008 elections, which saw them beat the BNP with a landslide. The new government outlawed a controversial Islamic party, accusing it of destabilising the country.

Four other Islamic organisations, including the Jamayetul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), were earlier banned after they carried out a series of nationwide bombings that left 28 people dead in 2005.—AFP ]]> http://beenasarwar.wordpress.com/2009/12/23/not-just-hot-air/ Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:04:22 +0000 beenasarwar http://beenasarwar.wordpress.com/2009/12/23/not-just-hot-air/ This article was published in The News on Sunday (TNS) as ‘Mountain magazine resort’, on the Footloose page, Dec 20, 2009 for a special issue on conference tourism

Not just hot air

Himal Southasian, Feb 1998

There are conferences and there are conferences. Some organisers lure participants with travel and daily allowances and fancy hotels at exotic locales. Others rely on goodwill and commitment. If it’s the latter, it helps to be located in an exotic place anyway — like Kathmandu. It also helps if the organisers are professional colleagues for whom you have the highest regard.

These last two factors contribute to my ‘favourite’ conference being one that took place in Kathmandu in early 1996. The man behind it was Kanak Mani Dixit, whom I had met at an earlier South Asia conference about water resources organised by Panos some years ago. Kanak had decided to turn his ‘mountain magazine’ Himal into a Southasian venture (there is a reason Himalers write ‘Southasian’ as one word – for an explanation see the published magazine or the Himal Southasian website.

So Kanak got together a few journalists from around Southasia to meet and brainstorm on this venture. He put Mitu Varma from New Delhi (who later became Country Representative in India for Panos South Asia) and myself up at the Third World Guest House in Pattan, one of the five ancient kingdoms around Kathmandu that are conserved as World Heritage sites.

Himal Southasian, cover June 1996

Kanak and his brother Kunda Dixit (my former editor at InterPress Service, who now runs the Nepali Times) lived with their families in houses just outside Patan Dhoka (the main Patan entrance or ‘darwaza’) in a large compound. It contained several buildings, all family property. They could have knocked these down and built a high-rise plaza to get rich quick as so many in Kathmandu were doing. But they have different values. Kanak’s father, a respected writer, named Kanak’s son, Elam, as in ‘ilm’, knowledge.

They had a printing press for their Nepali magazines and Himal in the old ‘buggy house’. The magazines shared an office in a building at the entrance of the compound. The printing press was later moved out and the space converted into a watering hole for Kathmandu’s artists, journalists and activists – Dhokaima, a café, gallery and conference centre.

The Third World Guest House where Mitu and I shared a room was sparse, but clean and comfortable. We had a great view of the main Pattan square, overlooking an ancient temple. It was incredibly colourful and photogenic (still is). We would have a light breakfast then walk through Pattan to the Himal office for our meetings. The rooftop terrace was a great place for an evening reception one evening. The icing on the cake: the unforgettable hot air balloon ride over Kathmandu, landing near Bhaktapur, another ancient kingdom.

– Beena Sarwar

A Loose Coalition Of Pro-American Politicians, Writers, Academics To Promote US Goals, Isolate Pak Military

Forget US diplomacy with the Pakistani government.  The Americans are now setting the policy agenda in Pakistan in direct talks with Pakistani political parties.  To ensure privacy, these talks are being held in Washington, away from prying eyes and ears in Pakistan.  Pakistani politicians, writers and some academicians are being recruited to promote US policies and isolate the

Pakistani military and intelligence.  This is how a superpower occupies a nuclear-armed nation.

US political and military officials go on the offensive inside Pakistan, boldly confronting critics and seeking to build a coalition of pro-American supporters across Pakistani politics, media and the academia.  The goal is to create a domestic counter to the entrenched Pakistani policymaking establishment [read 'the military'] that is resisting American efforts to force Pakistan to become a voluntary full-fledged second theater of war after Afghanistan.

Signs of the new American aggressiveness abound from increased willingness of US diplomats in Pakistan to confront their local critics, to sweet-talking Pakistani politicians, media and academicians into openly promoting the US agenda through sponsored visits to Washington and Florida.

This is similar to a Plan B:  using local actors to force change from within.  Plan A, which was focused on coercive diplomacy and threats of sending boots on the ground into Pakistan, failed to yield results over the past months.

In essence, the United States is covertly raising an army of special agents and soldiers on Pakistani soil, with the help of local Pakistani accomplices, but without the full knowledge of the Pakistani military to avoid a confrontation.

This counteroffensive began with Ambassador Anne W. Patterson’s attempt to intimidate a Pakistani columnist and a known critic of US policies.  Ms. Patterson did not seek a public debate to counter criticism.  Instead, she resorted to backchannel contacts to have the writer blocked.  In so doing, Ms. Patterson unwittingly broke a new barrier for US influence, creating precedence for how the US embassy deals with the Pakistani media.  This is something that the Ambassador’s counterparts could never imagine pulling off in places like Moscow, Ankara, or Cairo.

Buoyed by this, the Ambassador went on the offensive.  This month, she held a press conference, released a long policy statement, and met Prime Minister Gilani to reassure him after reports suggested her government did not trust Islamabad with the expected aid money.  She also appeared on primetime television, carefully choosing a nonaggressive TV talk show as a platform to address Pakistanis glued to their sets in peak evening hours.

The television appearance coincided with an interview she gave to a US news service accusing Pakistan of refusing to join the US in eliminating one of the Afghan local parties – the Afghan Taliban – whom her own government and military failed to wipe out in Afghanistan in eight years of war.  The statement played on the usual American accusations, backed by no evidence, that seek to explain the growing disenchantment of the Afghan people with the failed American occupation of their country by linking it to alleged Pakistani sanctuaries and covert support.

But hours before her television appearance, on Sept. 19, Pakistani police raided the Islamabad offices of Inter-Risk, a Pakistani security firm representing American defense contractor DynCorp, where a huge quantity of illegal sophisticated weapons was confiscated.  According to one news report, the Pakistani owner of the firm, retired Captain Ali Jaffar Zaidi, escaped from his house hours before the police arrived.  A Pakistani journalist, Umar Cheema, who works for The News, confirmed in a published statement that Mr. Zaidi told him a day before the raid that “the US embassy in Islamabad had ordered the import of around 140 AK-47 Rifles and other prohibited weapons in the name of Inter-Risk” and that “the payment for the weapons would be made by the embassy.”

[The News reports today that the government has "disbanded" Inter-Risk, voiding its contract with both the US embassy and with DynCorp.  The company director Capt. Zaidi remains at large.]

In other words, Pakistani security authorities have found American and Pakistani citizens working for the US embassy involved in suspicious activities.

What Really Happened?

US ambassador Anne Patterson used her goodwill to seek the personal intervention of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and Interior Minister Rehman Malik to obtain licenses for prohibited weapons.

Sixty-one pieces of sophisticated weapons were seized by the police at the Inter-Risk/DynCorp facility.

The question is: Why did the Pakistani police confiscate the weapons if they were duly licensed by the government?

The only logical answer is that the licensing procedure, which includes clearance from the country’s intelligence and security departments, was not followed.

Apparently, Washington’s staunch allies inside Pakistan’s elected government helped their friends with advanced weapons into the country without the knowledge of important national security departments of the government.

This raises serious questions because of several reports recently that implicate Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, in issuing a large number of visas to US citizens without proper clearance from Islamabad.  Since US tourists are not exactly flocking to Pakistan, Amb. Haqqani is suspected of having facilitated private US security agents to enter Pakistan.  A spate of recent reports have exposed the presence of private American security firms on Pakistani soil.

When the country’s security departments finally paid attention to Ambassador Haqqani’s indiscretions, the ambassador, who is a former journalist, is suspected of leaking a protest letter he wrote to his country’s intelligence chief, apparently attempting to clear his name before his American friends.  Of all places, the letter, which is a classified government communication, surfaced in New Delhi, on the screen of an Indian television news channel.

Ambassador Haqqani’s letter secret that blasts the ISI surfaces in New Delhi.  Pakistanis joke that Mr. Haqqani is ‘the US ambassador to the United States, stationed at the Pakistan Embassy in Washington DC.’

PATTERSON’S LIE EXPOSED

On Sept. 30, Mr. Ansar Abbasi of The News published the full content of a letter written by Ambassador Patterson to Interior Minister Rehman Malik, dated March 30, seeking his “intervention” to grant Inter-Risk and DynCorp “the requisite prohibited bore arms licenses to operate in the territorial limits of Pakistan and as soon as possible.”

The letter creates a new dent in the US embassy’s counteroffensive that seeks to downplay the presence of private US security firms in the country.  A Web news portal, Pak Nationalists/AhmedQuraishi released fresh evidence this month showing the infamous US security firm formerly known as Blackwater recruiting military-trained agents fluent in Urdu and Punjabi.

To quell the controversy, Ambassador Patterson went on record confirming that five million US dollars will be spent by her government to build new living quarters for US Marines within the embassy compound in Islamabad. But the number of marines utilizing this facility will not exceed 20, she assured Pakistanis recently.

The Sept. 19 raid, however, proves there will be a far larger number of armed Americans on Pakistani soil eventually than the figure given by Ambassador Patterson.

US MERCENERARIES IN PAKISTAN?

The strong denials of US officials on the presence of private US security firms in Pakistan do no tally with the circumstantial evidence.  At least three verified incidents have been reported in Islamabad alone over the past few weeks that involve armed US individuals in civilian dresses.  In two incidents, Pakistani police officers arrested and then released armed civilian Americans after intervention from the US embassy.  In one incident, a Pakistani citizen reported being assaulted by armed Americans in civilian clothes.  Police officers refused to register a complaint against the Americans for fear of being reprimanded in case of intervention by the US embassy.

US DOLLARS RECRUITING PAKISTANIS TO WORK AGAINST PAKISTANI MILITARY

Private US security agents sneaking into Pakistan is one level of the current US engagement with Pakistan.  Another level is political and seeks to isolate the Pakistani policymaking establishment, and especially the Pakistani military and the country’s powerful intelligence agencies, from within, after months of incessant one-sided US media campaign demonizing the country’s military and intelligence services.

On the political front, Washington’s Pakistan handlers have launched a new bout of US meddling in domestic Pakistani politics.  The US government has put into high gear its contacts with Pakistani political parties.  Washington is now conducting direct diplomacy with these parties.

A high level delegation of MQM, which controls the port city of Karachi, the starting point of US and NATO supplies headed for Afghanistan, is in Washington meeting US political and military officials.

A similar exercise is planned with the ANP, the small ex-Soviet communist ally currently governing the NWFP, the Pakistani province bordering Afghanistan.

Both parties came to power thanks to former President Musharraf’s secret ‘deal’ brokered by Vice President Dick Cheney and his State Department officials in 2007.  The deal sought to create a pro-American ruling coalition in the country that would ensure that the Pakistani military is aligned with the US strategic goals in the region.

The Americans are trying to accentuate what they see as pro-Indian, pro-American strains within the two parties.

Washington began this program quietly in 2007 after getting a green signal from President Musharraf to increase US involvement in Pakistani politics.  There are reports that nazims of several districts in Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP were invited to Washington to meet US government and military officials over the past thirty months.  But these were very low key visits.  In fact, they were so secretive that ANP chief Asfandyar Wali refused in early 2008 to confirm or deny a visit he made to Washington after the Feb. 2008 elections in Pakistan.  In contrast, no effort was made this time to downplay the current visits by MQM and ANP delegations to Washington and their meetings with US and NATO officials.  And as in all of these covert visits, the federal Pakistani government, the Foreign Office and the country’s security departments are not privy to what is being discussed between US officials and the leaders of the two Pakistani political parties on US soil.  In fact, US officials arranged the meetings on US soil precisely in order to circumvent the Pakistani government.

While there is no immediate evidence that Pakistan should be alarmed by Washington’s direct diplomacy with Pakistani political parties outside Pakistan’s territory, Islamabad needs to be wary of strong strains within Washington’s policy establishment that have been focusing on exploiting Pakistan’s ethnic and linguistic fissures in order to support its so-called ‘Af-Pak’ agenda.

A lot of work has been done over the past three years in several Washington think tanks on Pakistan’s linguistic and ethnic fissures and how these can be exploited by Washington to weaken Islamabad and force it to follow the US agenda in Afghanistan and the region.

During Pakistan’s worst domestic instability in 2007, mainstream US media outlets were leaking policy and intelligence reports focusing on alleged separatism in several Pakistani regions.  This week, some of the most ardent American supporters of separatism inside Pakistan – the usual suspects from the US think-tank circuit – came together in Washington to launch a political action committee that seeks independent status for a Pakistani province, Sindh.  The ceremony for the launch of the ‘Sindhi American Political Action Committee’ was addressed by Selig Harrison and Marvin Weinbaum, two think-tank types with extensive links to the US intelligence community and both advocates of engagement with Pakistani separatists as a leverage against Islamabad.

The new American confidence in openly meddling in Pakistani politics should raise alarm bells in the Pakistani capital.  This is the strongest sign yet of how weak the federal Pakistani government, and in turn Pakistan itself, appears to outsiders.

The weakness of Pakistan’s ruling elite is inviting American hounding at a time when the American bully is on the retreat elsewhere.

Hundreds of Tribes with Flags to come….courtesy of the Pentagon’s Killers

Every movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war Carl Von Clausewitz everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly. The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements.
The USA inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11.At this point in time it was not making history if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al Qaeda for which so far the USA has failed to furnish any solid evidence. After 9/11 when the USA attacked Afghanistan ,US leaders and key military commanders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plan were the elimination of Al Qaeda. The unstated objective was the de-nuclearisation of Pakistan. This scribe has continuously held this position held consistently in articles published in Nation from September 2001,all through 2002,2003,2004,2005 and till 2009.
The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases:
* An initial manoeuvre occupying Afghanistan in 2001.
* Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. Some military bases like Dasht I Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised. Even in case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government owned Shaw Inc and the CIA proxy operated Dyncorps Corporation. Patriotic Afghans trained in USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA’s dirty game in between 2001 and 2007.Similarly many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment.

* Cultivating various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.
* Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the FATA tribes thus destabilising Pakistan’s North West area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan’s political and military nucleus is located.
* Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies erupted in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Balochistan.
* Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies.
Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grace to Pakistan. These may be assessed as following :–
* US military buildup in Afghanistan and launching of an offensive against Taliban with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan.
* Simultaneously pressurising the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus Pakistan Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistans NWFP and Balochistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement.
* Since 2001 the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan’s strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009 it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation.
* The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan’s non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan’s strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan. Once this type of attack is done the USA with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go the UN and manoeuvre an international resolution demanding denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan’s government may capitulate.
* Once Pakistan is de-nuclearisaed the USA would encourage Pakistan’s Balkanisation into a Baloch US satellite , a city state of MQM in Karachi, a Pakhtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential , kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic which is a US lackey unless China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area.
What is the answer to this:
* An immediate clean break with USA/NATO and closing all NATO/US supply lines to Afghanistan.
* Mining and barbed wiring the Afghan Pakistan Border.
* Allowing the FATA agencies to import goods for Afghanistan duty free and scrapping the old Afghan Transit Trade Accord thus economically boosting the FATA.
* A military alliance with China with a Chinese Naval base at Gwadar.
* A rapprochement with Russia and offering the Russians free port facilities at Gwadar.
* Creation of a maritime province in Gwadar and Lasbela districts insulating these areas from the Baloch Sardars on payroll of US intelligence.
* Creation of a Pashtun Province in the Pashtun districts of Balochistan with Quetta as its capital.
* Cancelling all mineral concessions to all European/Australian/American companies in Balochistan and grant all mineral concessions to Chinese companies.
Everything is not inevitable in history. The ablest navigators can defeat the worst sea storms. Pakistan needs strategic and political vision. It may be necessary to have a military government to do all this in case the civilians prove inept.

Kanak Dixit addresses a protest rally in April, 2006, Kathmandu, in support of the general strike by seven major Nepali political parties and Maoists (Photo: Shehab Uddin)

Those of us who know Kanak Mani Dixit, editor Himal Southasian are proud of him anyway for his outstanding editorial skills, vision and relentless activism, award or no award – but the recognition is always nice (and so is the prize money, with which he has already promised to help Film South Asia)

Kanak has always been an inspiration. We are thrilled. Watch this space for more about him.

For award details see Prince Claus Awards – Kanak Mani Dixit

Kanak Dixit being arrested, April 2006, Kathmandu

Snapshots from South Asia