In the past I posted a few tips and scripts for doing voice operated audio recording (VOX) under Linux.  I’ve done more research on this over time and now have what I believe to be a more refined version as well as finally figured out how to make a timed script with the help of folks from LinuxQuestions.org.

#!/bin/bash
read -p "How many seconds to run? ==> " count_secs
if [[ $count_secs -gt 0 ]]
then
rec -r 22050 -c 1 -p | sox -p OUTPUT.mp3 silence 1 0.1 1% -1 0.5 1% &
my_PID=$!
sleep $count_secs
kill -15 $my_PID
fi

When you run the above script it will ask you to input the total recording time in seconds, then end itself when that time expires. I’ve hard coded the sox command to output a 22 kHz, mono, 32 kbps MP3 file. There are still many many ways to modify and improve this script, but this is working for my needs now.

I’ve also learned a lot more about how to use the “silence” option in sox thanks to this blog post which I suggest you read to understand how to tweak the parameters.  The way I hardcoded the volume thresholds and silence detection time works well to my ear as far as cutting silence from scanner radio traffic. YMMV.

I have one other revised script which first uses arecord and then sends the output to sox for trimming.  The method below has an advantage in that you can more finely tweak the initial capture parameters.  The disadvantage to this method is that there is a second separate processing step with sox, instead of doing it all in one shot as in the first script.

#!/bin/bash
#USAGE: ./sox_vox_recorder.sh xxx output.mp3
#USAGE: Records from line-in for xxx seconds to output.mp3, then detects and trims silence
TIME=$1
OUTPUT=$2
arecord -f S16_LE -c1 -r22050 -t raw -d ${TIME} | lame -r -s 22.05 -m m -b 64 - ${OUTPUT} ;
sleep 1 ;
sox ${OUTPUT} ${OUTPUT}_processed.mp3 silence 1 0.1 1% -1 0.5 1% ;

I can see lots of tweaks to both of these scripts, such as capturing with OGG, or making a case-selection menu to choose capture parameters, and so forth. Maybe I’ll play with this in the future.

5:20pm

(10:50pm Added a chart of the SG below original post.)

The D Indicator:

Back in August when the D Indicator set up the way it’s setting up now, the $TRAN gave a heads up as to which way the dramatic move might go. The $TRAN topped out on Tuesday, August 24th, and proceeded to roll until the $SPX finally caught up. So as the D Indicator continues to set up, that’s what I’m watching. But the $TRAN continues to rally hard so no clues there yet. It’s possible that the $TRAN could be getting ready to break out to the topside. Should that happen, then I just have to think that this dramatic move could be to the upside. But you can see on the daily charts that the $TRAN rallied hard into August 24th, and then rolled over. Right now the $TRAN is rallying hard but is not showing any signs that it wants to let up. In fact volume is coming into the transports and there is more volume pushing the index now than there was back in August.

Wasn’t much of a pause day if you were in REIT’s, $SOX, the $RUT, or $KRX.

As I mentioned the other day, if IWM takes out 60.68, then that negates the M-A pattern. Though there are no givens in the stock market, this appears to be a given. Almost happened today.

About the SG’s:

Well, this is what you want to see if you’re bullish, especially on a relatively flat day in the key indexes. All four indicators ticked up today on the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ. So, even though the markets didn’t move much, there was some strength under the hood. My preliminary, and often wrong, calculation puts the SG for the $SPX at -9. I will try to put up a chart later after I’ve had time to double check my calculations, which really are so simple a caveman could do them.

Because I’ve had one indicator that has never turned down during this time, I’m going to go back to ‘partially confirmed’ on the SG’s. So from transitional phase yesterday to partially confirmed today.

Current SG status for $SPX and $COMPQ:

Partially confirmed, Phase IV, buy signal.

10:50pm

Some other things to consider. P/C ratio sits at .89 so enough skeptics around to keep rally going for a little while longer. $BDI has ticked up. McClellan Oscillators for $NYSE and $COMPQ have been above the zero line for two days. Summation Indexes had upticks today even with flat market. $NYA50R, $SPXA50R, $NAA50R, and $NDXA50R all had upticks today, even with a flat market. $CYC & $TRAN are very close to new highs. $RUT and $SOX getting with the program. Financials lagging but they may begin to be lifted by the rising tide.

All this good news and a rally in the $USD, too.

Here’s the chart of the SG for the $SPX. You can see that it is in an uptrend and that while it has flip flopped over the last several days, the trend has held. It’s not the readings but the direction that matters.

I really thought the market would drop and give everyone an opportunity to get in at lower prices, but I’m not so sure about that now, especially with signs of strength and broader participation apparent in all the major indexes. I will be keeping a very close eye on the $TRAN tomorrow for any signs of a shift in direction for that key index.

Finance is no longer an island – as a matter of fact, Finance organizations are becoming the glue that holds together a consolidated, consistent view of all the departments in an organization.

The advent of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in the U.S., and, more recently, IFRS, has focused enormous attention on the financial accountability and internal controls of companies across all industries. In response, company executives recognize that individual business activities do not occur in a vacuum, as they all have a bottom-line impact.

Increasingly, companies are drawing their finance organizations into greater collaboration with the operational aspects of the enterprise – including sales, marketing, manufacturing, service, even human resources - and are asking their financial officers to take on a more prominent role in defining strategy across the enterprise.

What do companies with successful finance functions have in common? Benchmarking studies have shown that they are:

• They are agile. Companies need to be able to turn on a dime, to continue to gain efficiencies and to react quickly to changing regulations.  Centralizing and automating transactional processes through shared services, and implementing centralized compliance procedures, allows best-run companies to react quickly to changes and remain compliant.
• They are connected.  Integrated processes and systems allow finance to spend less time on collecting and manipulating data, and more time on analyzing the meaning of the available information. With closed-loop processes in place across departments, finance can forecast potential revenue, run what-if analysis, and develop contingency plans to manage costs.
• They are metric-driven. Successful companies measure the behavior that they wish to encourage. Measuring efficiencies in transactional processes such as closing the books results not only in cost savings – a faster close means having information more quickly to make informed decisions. Measuring effectiveness means taking market conditions into account, allowing finance to recommend new products and markets to pursue.

Ultimately, finance organizations must strike a balance between the tactical – generating and analyzing financial results – and the strategic – advising the enterprise on company direction and risk factors.

Want to learn more? Read the white paper, or listen to a Webcast, for additional details.

Wie schon in meinem vorherigen Post erwaehnt, nehmen meine tragbaren Stricksocken langsam ab, da einige nun so Stueck fuer Stueck ihre Schwachstellen, vorzugsweise an den Zehen, zeigen. Dieses Jahr bin ich ziemlich langsam mit fertigen Strickobjekten und so kommt es, dass ich gerade an Paar Nr. 5 stricke. Noch mindestens ein 6. Paar muesste ich stricken, um die kaputten Paare auszutauschen. Ich habe von Anfang an meiner Sockenstrickkarriere saemtliche Sockenwollreste aufgehoben und so kam mir die Idee, dass ich ja eigentlich meine Socken mit Originalwolle in Form von Zehen neu stricken reparieren koennte. Das wuerde schneller zu Ergebnissen fuehren als 6 neue Paare zu stricken.

Like I mentioned in my previous post my wearable handknit socks kind of decrease because one after another starts falling apart, mostly at the toes. This year I’m pretty slow with my knitting and I’m currently knitting on pair no. 5. I need to knit at least a 6th pair to substitute all the broken pairs I have. I kept all the sock yarn leftovers right when I started knitting socks and I got the idea I could just repair them and reknit the toes. This would be faster than knitting 6 new pairs.

Das Paar ganz links ist mein allererstes Paar Socken von 2003.

The pair on the left is my very first pair of socks from 2003.

Wie macht Ihr das? Ich hab’ das Problem, dass ich die kaputten Socken nicht wirklich entsorgen moechte, weil ich sie eben selbst gestrickt habe. Auf der anderen Seite ist es mit einem Sockenwollstash, der fuer ein xxx-faches an Socken reichen wuerde, sinnvoller, einfach mal aus dem Stash auszusuchen und neue Socken zu stricken.

How do you do that? I have the problem that I don’t really want to throw the broken socks out because I did knit them. On the other side with a sock yarn stash that would last for xxx-times pairs it might make more sense to just chose something from stash and knit new ones.

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Offensichtlich ist mein Blogging-Mojo zurueckgekehrt

Schon gute 2 Monate sind diese Socken fertig, aber bisher habe ich einfach noch keine Bilder gemacht. Da ich keine handgestrickten Socken anziehe, bevor sie nicht photographiert sind, wird’s langsam Zeit (Ist das ein Phaenomen des Strickbloggens?). Mir gehen naemlich so langsam die (tragbaren) Socken aus.

Looks like my blogging mojo is back

I finished these socks about 2 months ago but I didn’t take pictures yet. Since I don’t wear my handknit socks without taking pictures it’s about time to do so (Is this a knit blogging phenomen?). I’m kind of running out of (wearable) socks.

Testknit for Maschenwelt & Bollwerk

Tea Time (Ravelry link)

Anleitung auf deutsch (pdf!) / pattern in English (pdf!)

Garn / yarn: Drachenwolle Tweed

]]> http://cxochannel.wordpress.com/2009/11/28/cobit-control-objectives-for-information-and-related-technology/ Sat, 28 Nov 2009 22:11:20 +0000 CxO Channel http://cxochannel.wordpress.com/2009/11/28/cobit-control-objectives-for-information-and-related-technology/ http://2monkeyz.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/who-nose/ Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:16:40 +0000 Jas Core http://2monkeyz.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/who-nose/

This complete outfit…yes complete:) include shoes and legwarmers, pullover, skirt, and thights!

Subscribe and go to History!

Who Nose

I found also this MM board there

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 also known as the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002 is mandatory. ALL organizations, large and small, MUST comply.

Section 302

Corporate responsibility for Financial Activities

Public Company Officers must certify the accuracy of financial statements and must certify that statements fairly present the operations and financialcondition of the issuer.

It also requires material information that is used to generate reports be retained and made available to the public.

It Affects

This directly affects the IT and security departments because it is
primarily IT systems that generate these periodic reports and which control e-mail, the main method of communication within most organizations.

Section 404

Management Assessment of Internal Controls

Section 404 is the most pertinent section within SOX to issues surrounding information security. It addresses the necessity of corporate management to be fully accountable for the integrity of all data associated with their financials.

It states that management teams of public companies must establish and maintain adequate “Internal Controls” over their financial reporting systems to safeguard against unauthorized and improper use of financial information.

Internal Controls are defined as “all control methods a company uses to prevent, detect and correct errors and frauds that might get into financial statements”.

Section 409

Real Time Issuer Disclosure

Public Companies must be aware of, and declare, changes in their financial conditions or operations within 48 hours of material events.  All events which could affect a company’s finances, stock price or intellectual property (among otherthings) must be captured, documented with a process that can be audited and reported in a rapid fashion.

This includes operational risk with IT systems such as:

• Major or extended system outages
• Loss of critical data
• Security breaches
• Intellectual Property and Digital Rights Management issues
• Major computer virus and worm attacks

As I have said for the past couple of days, I’m expecting a pull back to develop over the next few sessions. I don’t think this is going to be the end of the world. I do think there is a very good chance that the $SPX could revisit the 1029 area from the November 2nd low, especially in light of the fact that the 20MA on the weekly chart is right now at 1029, but I reserve the right to change my view as market dynamics change.

The market has been very predictable since the August peak. It pulls back starting around the 20th of the month, takes back 50% to 70% of recent gains, then bottoms around the first of the next month, only to rally all over again. But as Pee Wee Herman said, “First your mind plays tricks on you, and then you play tricks back.” Or, maybe it will be different this time. Instead of a pull back that draws near the previous low, maybe this pull back will take out the low and keep on going. And of course, the market need not pull back any further. It could rally from current levels. Except that it is a little different this time.

This chart of the $NYA50R clearly shows a lack of participation with the latest market peak accomplished with 68% of stocks within the $NYA being above their 50MA’s. This is the kind of behavior you expect to see near market bottoms but not in an index that is just four days removed from a new rally high. It clearly shows weakness within the index. Compare the current 68% reading to the May, August, September, and October peaks where at least 84% of stocks were above their 50MA’s indicating broad based interest and buying. This chart looks more like the late June peak that led to the July lows. And that’s what I think we’re going to see.

And if you really want to be bothered, take a look at the $NAA50R.

This rally off the March lows has been broad based. It has been led by Big tech, small caps, transports, the cyclicals, & financials, and as the tide rose, the rally lifted all the other ships. But we now have trouble in two key sectors, the small caps and financials.

The $RUT, $BKX, & XLF all gave ’sell’ signals on their weekly charts in late October, based on the full stochastic dropping below 80 and a bearish cross on the MACD, along with RSI 14’s that have peaked. Despite the action over the past two weeks, these sell signals persist. While the rest of the key sectors put in or nearly put in new rally highs in the last week, neither the small caps nor the financials did. This sets up an ABC down structure in the $RUT and XLF, etc. The same could be said for the $SOX, but it’s just not a leading sector anymore. Look at the chart of the daily IWM a couple of posts below this one for a hypothetical trajectory for IWM.

Adding fuel to the pull back theory are the weekly charts of the $NYA, $SPX, $INDU, $RUT, and IYR, which all have shooting star dojis, or at least the potential that the weekly doji is in fact a shooting star. You can clearly see on the $NYA chart below what has happened in the recent past when these shooting stars appeared. Also note that the PPO has a bearish cross, the full stochastic is below 80, and that the RSI 14 has broken its longer term trend line and that it is rolling over now and headed for the shorter term trend line.

So you’re thinking, “A pull back to $SPX 1029? Wow! What a buying opportunity.” But what if it’s different this time?

Those commercial futures hedgers are still net short 60k contracts. They took on 3900 new long contracts while adding 2500 new short contracts as of November 17th. They’ve gone from about 50k net short a few weeks back to 62K net short last week, to this week’s 60k net short position. Clearly they don’t think the worst is behind us. And neither do mutual fund investors.

Mutual fund investors are fleeing equity based mutual funds and flocking to bond-based mutual funds in record numbers. According to this article from Morningstar, the exodus began in earnest during the month of September and most likely continues to this day. Mutual fund investors who went through the trauma of a 401K meltdown regardless of whether they stayed in the market or not apparently have little appetite for any more risk. They would rather invest in a safe though low yielding bond-type fund rather than invest in an S&P Index fund. And who can blame them since many are baby boomers nearing retirement? They probably didn’t sleep well during the market meltdown and they’re simply not going to risk their retirements again. But their monthly contributions are much needed if the market is going to go higher or at least go higher and stay up there. If this exodus is continuing and if it continues, then end of the month window dressing by mutual fund managers just won’t be the same.

Which brings me to the $TRAN. During this week’s rally, the $TRAN failed to make a new rally high while all of the other majors, the $SPX, $NYA, $COMPQ, & the $NDX, did. The $TRAN only missed a new high by about 6pts, but how hard would it have been to get that? This is the first time in quite a while that the $TRAN did not lead the pack to a new high. Maybe this doesn’t mean much right now but we’ve had divergences in the financials, the small caps, and the semis and you just have to wonder if the $TRAN might be moving into that camp.

Finally, or until I think of something else, there’s the $CYC. The Cyclicals Index has been this rally’s poster child. Up 192% from the March low. The stocks within the Cyclicals Index represent a cross section of U.S. manufacturing, finance, transportation, technology, chemicals, etc. These guys are the core of the economy, have been pumped to the moon, and they need to be watched closely. If profit taking takes place in these core stocks, then the decline that I’m expecting could go a bit deeper than even I’m expecting.

So the SG’s are giving mixed signals and have entered a transitional phase. The markets appear stretched with fewer and fewer stocks participating. The Summation Indexes have rolled over, not something you want to see considering they just turned up a few days back, and the McClellan Oscillators are below the zero line and are pointed straight down. The VIX is still quite a ways above it’s lower BB and the A/D quartet, $NYUPV, $NYDNV, $NYUD, & $NYAd, are in flux. This is no time, IMHO, to be adding to long positions, and shorting this freight train is dangerous. If I was one of the lucky people who bought in March, I wouldn’t be too worried unless $SPX 1029 is taken out with gusto. Otherwise, this is just a re-pricing pull back and buying opportunity in progress.

Keep an eye on the $USD. There certainly does appear to be a correlation between dollar strength or weakness and the market.

Have a good weekend.

4:20pm

I’ll be back later with more stuff, but in the meantime, here is a chart of IWM showing an M-A pattern. This is pure speculation on my part. IWM could rebound tomorrow and climb back over the peak of 60.68, which would negate this pattern. Until then, this pattern may offer some insight into where IWM is going.

This same pattern can be seen on the $SOX and not as clearly on XLF & $RIFIN.

Here’s the direct link.

_______________________________________________________
6:40pm

The SG for the $SPX dropped from yesterday’s -28 reading to -30 today. The B Indicator is showing a considerable loss of momentum.

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX & $COMPQ:

Entering transitional phase.

I’ve been questioning this entire rally due to the lack of participation as evidenced in the $SPXA50R, $NAA50R, & $NYA50R so I think the SG’s and the markets have peaked for now. Yesterday the $TRAN and FDX gave a heads up and today they sold AAPL, destroyed INTC & $SOX, and now they’ve taken DELL to the woodshed.

The $SPX hasn’t taken out a major swing low since the June decline. Because this rally just never had much substance, I think the $SPX may have to visit 1029 before it can move higher. I know that would make those futures traders happy.

$NYUPV, $NYDNV, $NYUD, & $NYAD are oversold to the point that there could be some kind of a bounce tomorrow, but they are not so oversold that the bounce, should it happen, will amount to much, especially since it will most likely be sold into heavily. I do find it interesting that these gauges gave a sell signal on the 9th when the $SPX was at 1093. I wasn’t sure at the time if that sell signal would be meaningful or not and I’m still not sure, but I do find it interesting especially considering where the $SPX closed today.

The Summation Indexes have rolled over and the McClellan Oscillators are below the zero line. The Summation Indexes never really did get going during this rally phase, another reason I think we could see $SPX 1029 again.

NOTE: The information in this post is the product of our own experiences in working as a technical project manager for a publicly-traded company, as well as our own open-source research.

We do feel, however, that the information will be of use to executives who are considering adopting a telecommuting model for some of their employees.

The reader is strongly encouraged to apply his or her own best judgment in using this information, remembering at all times that Thinking Long is not to be considered a source of accurate legal information, either in general or as it may apply to any specific set of circumstances. We have no attorneys on retainer.

Therefore, the following post should be taken as a strong and detailed recommendation that a publicly-traded company consult with specialized attorneys before a telecommuting model is adopted.

The first potential problem with telecommuting has to do with some of the provisions of the suite of regulations applying to public companies that are collectively referred to as “The Sarbanes-Oxley Act”¹ or “SOX”.

In particular, we are referring to the sections of SOX that obligates a company to establish and maintain policies to control access to proprietary financial data.

The relevant section is excerpted in full from the website of the U. S. Government Printing Office:

SEC. 404. MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT OF INTERNAL CONTROLS ²

(a) RULES REQUIRED.—The Commission shall prescribe rules requiring each annual report required by section 13(a) or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. 78m or 78o(d)) to contain an internal control report, which shall—

(1) state the responsibility of management for establishing and maintaining an adequate internal control structure and procedures for financial reporting; and

(2) contain an assessment, as of the end of the most recent fiscal year of the issuer, of the effectiveness of the internal control structure and procedures of the issuer for financial reporting.

(b) INTERNAL CONTROL EVALUATION AND REPORTING.—With respect to the internal control assessment required by subsection (a), each registered public accounting firm that prepares or issues the audit report for the issuer shall attest to, and report on, the assessment made by the management of the issuer. An attestation made under this subsection shall be made in accordance with standards for attestation engagements issued or adopted by the Board. Any such attestation shall not be the subject of a separate engagement.

For a real-world interpretation of this language I went to the website of Janco Associates³, a management consulting firm that focuses on MIS.

Janco markets a SOX Compliance Resource Kit⁴ with the observation that Section 404 requires that enterprises…

• have an enterprise wide security policy;
• have enterprise wide classification of data for security, risk, and business impact;
• have security related standards and procedures;
• have formal security based documentation, auditing, and testing in place;
• enforce separation of duties; and
• have policies and procedures in place for Change Management, Help Desk, Service Requests, and changes to applications, policies, and procedures.

Simply put, public companies are fully responsible for the reliability and integrity of their financial data; they must be in control of that data at every stage of its processing and so cannot allow it to be transferred to, or be processed using, equipment outside of its control.

Furthermore, remote access to a company’s network must be by means of a connection whose security meets specific standards of for security.

All of this means that, if a public company requires or allows employees to work from home, the company must provide the necessary equipment as well as a secure connection by which the remote employee can gain access to the company’s network.

In other words, it is not the case that a public company can simply require an employee to work from home and use their own computer, with the justification that “since every employee has a computer, phone, internet connection it is convenient to work from home”.⁵ In so doing, a company runs the risk of violating Federal law, as well as loses control of their data, increases the vulnerability of their local network to either viral infection or hacking.

As we noted at the start of this post, this information is not meant to be taken as a comprehensive review of the implications of telecommuting for a publicly traded company under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, especially not as it applies to any specific situation.

This post is only to inform the reader that such implications exist and that corporate counsel should review the law and the circumstances under which telecommuting would be taking place.

Wikipedia article on Sarbanes-Oxley Act.
U.S. Government Printing Office - H.R. 3673
Janco Associates, Inc.
Sarbanes-Oxley Compliance Resource Kit
Syracuse Finance Class, Friday, November 13, 2009, Posted by: Scarlett Lu


 

wooow i love these leggings looks, and its good for this cold weather, so i was like wuuuuuuaaaa as i saw this dollarbie! Many colours for jus 1 L$!

taxi:

http://slurl.com/secondlife/Dragonfruit/81/105/22

The chart below is the chart of the SG for the $SPX.  I set it up so that it goes back to the last week of April because that is when momentum peaked for this rally off the March lows. The values are not as important as the direction the indicator is moving. Up is good, down is bad, and sideways is troublesome.

Based on the SG, momentum peaked on 5/4/2009, days before the market began to roll over. It then went basically down until 7/10/2009 and then really took off to the peak of 8/7/2009. It never got anywhere near close to confirming the late August rally. It then bottomed on 9/3/2009, a day after the market bottomed, topped out on 9/22, never confirmed the October rally, and then fell off a cliff which leaves it where it is now, more or less flatlining.

It has flatlined twice before in the selected time period with different results. It more or less flatlined from late June through early July when it took off like a rocket.  It flatlined in October and then fell off a cliff. What’s it going to do now? I don’t know. Maybe it’s saying that the market needs to consolidate further before it can muster the strength to rise. It could fall off a cliff again. That’s possible, but since it’s already done that then that really just leaves moving higher or more consolidation. Regardless, I do think it’s time to be cautious and I don’t see any reason at all to be short the market right now. I may have to eat these words, but being short is so last week.

Here is a direct link.

Lowry’s data is updated.

Adding the following on Sunday, November 8th:

There are a couple of things going on with the SG’s oscillators that are of note. First, the A Indicator and the B Indicator have started moving up, though the A did stall on Friday. The C Indicator remains in an overall down trend and the D Indicator has been sitting at it’s absolute bottom since 10/27, 9 sessions ago. What’s of note is the current low reading on the SG, which was -79.79 on Tuesday, 11/3.

In the first and second weeks of March, the low readings on the SG ranged from -80 to -103. Also, the C Indicator was just a little lower than where it is now. So what I’m looking at here is the potential for a major buy signal that may come within the next 5 or so sessions, +/- a couple. Here’s my reasoning.

The SG is near a low. It’s possible it could drop 10 more points but it doesn’t have to. Back in March things were completely different than they are now, so the SG for the $SPX could fall a little more but need not get to the -100 level. The second thing is that the C Indicator, the trending indicator, is at a level now that has, in the past, initiated a turn around and a new buy signal. In other words, it is sufficiently over sold. But first the C Indicator has to slow, stall, and turn up. It is slowing a little now. Next, the D Indicator has been sitting on its low reading for 9 sessions. In late February and early March, it only sat at this low level for 13 sessions. So what I’m saying is that neither the oscillators that make up the SG nor the SG itself need to drop any further before a new buy signal comes to pass. I think this should become very clear by no later than Wednesday.

But, of course, the market is the final arbiter in all this.

or: slashing the staff like this could results in assault charges

or: Remaining News Staff required to perform miracles, also to cure cancer before fiscal quarter

Well, it is with a heavy heart and a cold sweat that I have to write this piece on the further death nell of the Newspaper industry. I say newspaper because all indications show that the online/television media are fairing relatively well. All signs point to the eventual demise of the printed paper on a wide scale and little can be done, it seems, but for industry leaders to continue to cut off fingers and limbs so as to slow the gangrene-like spread of the infection until they can find a cure for what ails news, the most valuable use of movable type in my humble opinion. With companies reporting massive ad revenue losses, circulation decline, and current business models failing like a bad monkey heart transplant, there has been no choice but to make sweeping layoffs, close reporting bureaus, and to close down papers all together. Though reporters and their families are the immediate victims of this necessary blood letting, the real victim here will undeniably be the American public with less diverse and more poorly researched and fact checked stories as the remaining reporting force is stretched thin to continue to deliver the same level of content with less resources and editorial oversight.

Recently the Times Co. issued a statement that they would be cutting some 100 jobs from now until Dec. 31, which accounts for 8% of it’s newsroom staff. This is only the first sign of how many jobs it will cut, being as this is only the first number since it cut 100 jobs in this same type of program last year. The Times Co. as of 2008 employed some 1,300 employees. That number today is difficult to calculate, but they have had regular rounds of layoffs, and with revenue dropping by the millions every quarter you can bet that the layoffs are going to come more rapidly in the coming year. Up to this point it was cutting in to their profits, stock dropping, but they didn’t have to make the severe cuts. Now it has become apparent that a company of this size, a company that was founded in 1851, is beginning to buckle under its own weight, its spindly legs of analog media can’t support its decrepit, obese form any longer. You have to understand that the Times Co. also owns the Boston Globe, the International Herald Tribune, and about 15 other regional publications as well as a minority stock holding in the Boston Red Sox, a fact that a lot of New York sports fans probably don’t know, if they did I think the circulation would fall through the floorboards over night.

In addition to one of the largest publishing organizations making cuts the Wall Street Journal is simply closing its doors on the Boston Bureau it has maintained for many years, try 100 of them, which generally contributed reports on New England, health care, education, and financial services. Yes, this is what we need, an industry leading, pulitzer winning bureau that covers these pivotal topics at a time like this. Dow Jones & Co., who on the Wall Street Journal have taken drastic measures recently with salary cuts, hiring freezes, completely closing some regional publications, and most recently cutting 50 jobs, leaving the company with only 750 employees world wide. 750, that is only 150 more employees than the LA Times currently employs; in 2007 the LA Times employed 1,200 employees. As you can see we’re not just losing ho-bunk back water papers, the leaders of this industry are failing every day as times get more and more complicated and good news coverage becomes critical.

Are you about to slit your wrists journalism students? A few hesitation cuts while you get the nerve up to pull it off? Well I’ve got exactly what you need to close the deal; The East Valley Tribune, after some 118 years of publication, is turning off the presses and calling it a day Dec. 31, 2009. Yes, a paper that has service Phoenix and the surrounding areas for more than a century could not survive despite cutting staff by 40%  and scaling production back to only four days a week. The problem might have come from their parent company claiming bankruptcy recently, but one can’t be sure. In putting the paper up for sale the closest thing they got to a serious offer was a oily haired jukebox salesman in an ’84 caddy who offered $500 dollars, a Wurlitzer at factory cost, and a buffalo head nickel. The deal fell apart when they wanted all of the 45’s thrown in for free and ol’ Neil commented that he wasn’t gonna get hosed like that without getting kissed first. You might say that who gives a shit about the Phoenix area? Well it has stood for a long time as the largest growing community in America, a growing readership pool to draw from every year, and the pulitzer prize winning paper continued to lose circulation and ad revenue. If a paper in a growing community with more potential readers moving there every year can’t survive, then who can?

This is only a portion of the bad news, a small sliver of the awful news coming from the financial front. Every single day bad news streams in and I just can’t publish all of it, for the mere fact that I can’t stand to analyze it as I try to break in to an industry that is hemorrhaging revenue and dropping employees like a pinata exploded. The WGA East (Writers Guild of America) issued some statements that echo my own concerns. I find that the most disconcerting fact that I think we are all failing to recognize is what the guild refers to as a difficulty to provide “reliable, informative material in the face of unrelenting budget cuts.” This is exactly how I feel as a journalist. What is occurring is news gathering organizations attempting to provide the same level of coverage with less staff to do so. What happens is now you have employed staff journalists required to now cover more ground, which will stretch them thin on accuracy and in depth, thoughtful coverage. Then, in a sick twist of fate, now there are fewer checks and balances as to the accuracy and quality of this writing in less research staff and editorial oversight leaving far too many wholes for poor journalism to fall through.

What we have here is maybe comparable to a regimen of men trying to hold a line, defend against an enemy and without warning half their force is called away, so now you have half the fighting force holding the same stretch of land; it is too much for too few to cover, no matter how hard they try and with whatever conviction they have, it will not be the same caliber as when they had more men. This thinning of the ranks leads to less accurate, and to a greater extent less thoughtful and in depth reporting. The 100 year old Boston Bureau I mentioned earlier won its Pulitzer prizes for investigative reporting on favoritism in university admissions to the children of Alumni as well as shady business practices of backdated stocks for company executives. The first casualty of this cut back will be the time consuming, heavily researched, and expensive practice of investigative reporting. The in depth kind of work that you don’t get without a company putting journalism first. Where we have ended up, and are heading to like a bat out of hell is now ‘bottom-line journalism’ on two fronts; basic, bare bones daily reporting coupled with cost first decision making on what gets covered and how.

Years ago journalism starting taking its cues from tabloids and sensationalizing stories. This is the time of the likes of Fox News coming to supremacy in the network battles. When you started listening to pundits and stopped watching the nightly news. The loudest voices and the most controversial personalities became the leaders in news, and then you have Glenn Beck in a league unto himself. News became about salacious headlines and quick witted propaganda, but to a greater extent it just became about entertainment. What was tolerable was that you had relatively legitimate news organizations to cover everything else and deliver unbiased news on a daily basis. Those that wanted real news coverage could get it. What also aided in the tolerability of the situation was that there were many voices, many sources, and great staff members checking and rechecking facts as well as layers of editors and publishers sifting through work to prevent bias and misinformation to greater extent. This slashing of staff and research budgets is now leaving fewer voices, 50% at some papers as other just close their doors. Now the diversity of coverage has been compromised, the quality of coverage has been compromised, and to a greater extent, the publics trust has been compromised.

I want you to, for just a moment, imagine a world without the LA Times, NY Times, and USA Today. Where will you get the news? You can’t get there? OK, how about a more nefarious and dangerous situation, imagine only the NY Times, or the LA Times, or the USA Today. This is the great disaster you will have to come to terms with eventually. Imagine a world where everyone has gone bankrupt and one company, one news gathering organization stands as the only publication left. What if there was a bias, or if they decided to not cover certain things? Without other companies to compete with, without a need to fact check they could run rough shod over the world, and God forbid you get a publisher or owner with an axe to grind, bias could run amok upon it’s pages with no way for you, the reader, to compare facts and try to get the whole story. It would be a Stars and Stripes kind of situation during Vietnam; smooth over the bad news and beef up stories with false facts and embellishment whatever news fit your agenda (also see ex. FOX News). Absolute anarchy as the public can’t get the real story or be informed enough to make a decision about Presidential candidates, bills up for a vote, etc. You don’t want to be there, I know I don’t.

This is a scary situation that needs immediate attention as diversity and quality in reporting begins to deteriorate in the public sector. A bailout is out of the question, the newspapers didn’t get in line soon enough and with all of the healthcare reform spending a TARP money, there isn’t enough to go around, so papers are shit out of luck for Government help. Besides, if the Obama Administration got its fingers in to free press the effects and distrust by the public in reporting would go through the roof. A share of the Times Co. in the Obama back pocket would only fuel the flames of the communist and fascist sentiment some have for the administration. I have heard rumors that the companies I have spoken of in this piece may be considering creating a united front with other groups to team up and begin charging for premium content or online subscriptions all at once. This would not create an immediate flocking from those who charge to those who don’t. A kind of Newspaper Alliance to help everyone and hurt no one so that they can all try and move in to an era of online profitability that has been lacking ever since the 90’s.

I promise you that the fall of the news empires in this country is not over, it will be getting much darker before there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and I predict the fall of a titan Newspaper like the Boston Globe or a paper with a readership nearing one million on Sunday editions going down before people begin to take serious notice. It will take the fall of a news empire or the sale of the LA Times to bring the spotlight squarely on the industry. Can you imagine if the NY Times were put up for sale or eventually just had to claim bankruptcy. It is not entirely impossible as being a publicly traded company, if stock were to fall to a buck a share the company would crumble, massive closing of international bureaus, layoffs, etc., the company could be in ruin inside 90 days from the stock falling. A world without the NY Times would a be a terrible place given the fact it would shake confidence in others and possibly lead to a domino effect resulting in the ugly world I mentioned in the last paragraph.

Embrace of online media will help, but it is not going to fix the problem, you don’t make up 60% ad revenue declines by charging .99 micro-charges for weekly subscriptions to the Times. A complete restructuring of the business model will need to take place to find a profitable design for the 21st century paper. In the meantime you, the readers and general public need to be wary of reporting, check your own facts and dig deeper to find the information that you need to form opinions and make decisions. As the journalists are stretched thin and expected to perform miracles on a daily basis for less money on tighter deadlines without the needed support staff I ask that you forgive inaccuracies and instead pick up more than just the one paper. Take a cue from me, I read the LA Times, NY Times, USA Today, as well as my local papers to check facts and try to get the whole story as well as a wide array of different stories. I don’t subscribe to any of these papers, I read them online for free, bad aspiring journalist, I know, but I put in the leg work to be assured that I am as diversely informed as possible. What you now need to do is support papers more than ever by doing the job of research assistant, reporter, editor, and publisher at multiple papers to get your news. You now do the same job four people used to do at the paper…welcome to modern journalism, you have to get your own coffee, too, we had to fire Jimmy last week.

Hi there,

first i want to show u the gifts from zenith

they are for free and available for everyone

i like them ;D

things u can ever need ;D

Taxi: http://slurl.com/secondlife/Fujin/66/154/30

Part two with the lucky chairs comes in one min

These days, testing under section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 is just a regular part of the financial statement audit cycle.  Gone are the days when auditors spent their summer months documenting internal controls.  It’s a shame, really.  It’s as if Sarbanes-Oxley isn’t special anymore.

As we slowly emerge from our current financial crisis, why not re-live the golden age of financial regulation by exchanging Sarbanes-Oxley greeting cards with your friends and family?

As it happens, Sarbanes-Oxley hasn’t been much cause for celebration and, frankly, hasn’t inspired much humor.  Despair, maybe.  Lassitude.  Ennui.  Possibly disconsolation.  So, to fill this gaping hole in our nation’s popular culture, here’s my attempt.  (Sincere thanks to U.S .copyright law for providing a fair use exemption for satire.)

I originally created this parody in 2005 for publication in a small corporate newsletter.

5:45pm

The intensity of the down ticks in the various indicators has backed off a bit from what they were last Wednesday and last Friday. That’s to be expected. Last week’s intensity was unsustainable. Otherwise, I see no other change. Downward momentum remains strong and the market continues to deteriorate from the inside out. The weekly sell signals for the $TRAN, $SOX, $RUT and the others remain valid while the $SPX, $INDU, and $COMPQ are somewhere between a buy and a sell, IMHO. Also, look at the Aroon on the daily charts of key indexes. Interesting stuff going on there.

The $CYC was helped by F today while the $TRAN was hurt by YRCW.

Volume today was very heavy in the Q’s, IWM, and SPY. I’m not sure what to make of this. Could the market be telling us that it’s had enough of the downside for a while? Always possible.

If the pattern on the daily $SPX chart is a bull flag pattern, then at the moment $SPX would have to get above the 1060 area to break out of this pattern. If the $SPX could get above last Thursday’s high of 1066 that would do it.

* * * I*

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ:

Strong, confirmed, Phase IV, sell signal.

(Adding this about 2hrs later. Well, I could have saved myself a lot of work if I had first watched Oscar’s video over at youtube. Here’s the link. Look for the video for 10/31/2009 if it doesn’t come right up.)

First the good news. The retail sector is holding up well. See XRT.

Now the not so good news.

For many of the key indexes, the glass is half full. Using weekly charts, indexes like the $COMPQ & $SPX appear to be under pressure but they have not yet given a sell signal. They are close and the slightest little push in the coming week will send them into the abyss, but they could bounce back. The criteria I’m using to determine whether or not an index has or has not given a ’sell’ signal on the weekly chart is that the index in question is holding trend line support and that there are no bearish confirmations from the MACD, full stochastic, and the Williams%R (50). This chart of the $SPX is typical of so many of the other major indexes and major sectors. The trend line could hold, the MACD need not have a bearish cross, the DI lines could separate, etc. This chart shows a slightly different picture. For this chart the main difference is that I’m using a Williams%R set at 50. Focus on times in the past when the Williams 50 on the weekly chart has dropped below -20 and especially the declines that follow. But we’re not there yet. The charts for most of the major indexes look about the same as the two charts above and so the markets could go either way. A push higher next week, and we’re off to the races again. A push lower next week, and the trend lines will break and each of the four indicators will have bearish confirmations.

This list includes many of the major indexes and sectors that are in the same situation as the $SPX. Some of these are within a hare’s breath of giving a sell signal.

$NYA
$COMPQ
$NDX
$INDU
S&P Mid-cap 400
$CYC
XLF
IYR
XLE
OIH
KIE (look at the weekly volume)
SLX (very, very close to a sell signal)
$RIFIN/FAS
GDX & XME (should probably be in the list belowl)
DRG
$XTC

And now the bad news.

Using the criteria above, which is a break of trend line support on the weekly chart as well as a MACD bearish touch or cross, a stochastic below 80, and a Williams 50 below -20, these indexes and sectors have given ’sell’ signals.

The poster child for this category has to be the $TRAN. This chart of the Transportation Index tells most of the story, and this chart tells the rest of the story. I’m not a Dow Theorist but anyone who knows anything about the stock market knows the importance of the Transports. If airlines aren’t hauling people and if trucks and trains aren’t hauling goods, then you do not have a thriving or growing economy.

Along with the $TRAN, the following indexes and sectors have also given sell signals on the weekly charts:

$SOX
$RUT
$BKX
$KRX
$HGX (a week ago)
TAN
XLU
XAL
BBH (two weeks ago)
BDH (since Sept 1st)
I’m sure a missed a couple.

Basically, the market is at a tipping point. Every index and sector is weak with some just being weaker than others. Lowry’s Buying Pressure Index is at its lowest level since the end of July and its Selling Pressure Index continues to rise. The SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ indicate internal market deterioration, or rot, the likes of which have not been seen since February. The large contract commercial S&P futures hedgers are net short 50,000 contracts so the more they sell, the more they make. Earnings have been ‘better than expected’ but absolutely do not justify stock prices being back where they were before the big drop in September of 2008 or, in the case of stocks such as AAPL & BIDU, hitting new all-time highs. What we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks is bubble froth.

Based on what I’m seeing in the SG’s and what is being confirmed in the $TRAN, $RUT, $SOX, and other key sectors, I have to expect more downside. This does not mean that the rally is over nor does this mean that I expect the market to go into a major down trend and take out the March lows, as I’m sure many of the perma-bears are calling for. To me it just means that the market needs a cooling off period in order to consolidate recent gains after having come too far too fast. The $SPX has already dropped about 6% from its recent high and I have no idea how much further it will drop, if it drops at all. If the $SPX were to take out the July lows, then that would, IMHO, change everything. That level, around 870, would mean a drop of 20% from the recent high which would initiate a new bear market phase, but that’s a long way from the current 1036 level. In the mean time I’m still looking at a bull flag pattern on the daily $SPX chart. If the current downward move continues, then this will just morph into a down trending channel.

And lastly, or until I think of something else, I will leave you with this. Back in August, with the markets still rocketing higher from the July lows, the RSI 14 for many of the major indexes hit extreme levels not seen in years. At the time, I read an article stating that the RSI 14 for the $COMPQ hit a level that was comparable to the level it hit on January 3rd, 2000, which was 86.74. The article went on to point out that even though the $COMPQ would continue to rally over the next 2 1/2 months adding almost 1000pts, none of the subsequent new highs in the index were confirmed by the RSI 14 indicating negative divergence which eventually led to the the bear market in the $COMPQ that continues to this day.

Here are the levels from early August. On 9/22, with the $COMPQ 135pts higher than the August 4th high, the RSI 14 rose to 74.48 showing a slight negative divergence. At the more recent highs, the RSI 14 on the $COMPQ never got above 60. Is history about to repeat?

6:20pm

Market rot. That’s what I’m calling this. The market has been decaying since the middle of the month. Yesterday’s rally was nothing but a dead cat bounce and today we got the real story.

Volume on IWM is now at 115mil shares. That’s the highest volume for a down day in a year.  Today’s volume was heavy all around. Is it capitulation volume? Any other time I would say maybe but I’m even less certain than maybe right now.

The $VIX punched through its upper BB today, another sign that the markets are nearing a bottom, but there have been times in the past where this signal has failed, and I ‘think’ this might be one of them. This has to do with market deterioration the likes of which we haven’t seen since February. Back in February, when the SG for the $SPX produced signs of negative strength similar to the one it produced on Wednesday and today, this was indicating, at the time, that there were serious problems going on under the hood and that it was going to take more than a couple of days for the market to get on the mend and start back up. I ‘think’ we may be entering a similar period, if we haven’t already. If this turns out to be the case, then the market could easily drop for up to two weeks more and give back another 8%.  I’m not saying this is going to happen but I see the potential for such an event.

P/C ratio hit 1.21 today. That usually signals a bottom is at hand but maybe it’s just not going to work this time. Will just have to wait and see.

Here’s some of the damage this market has done, and it’s not a pretty sight.

$BKX closed the month lower than the September low.

$SOX closed the month 1/2pt above its September low.

$DJT/$TRAN closed the month down 180pts and 450pts from the month’s high.

$CYC closed the month down 28pts and 90pts from the month’s high.

$COMPQ closed down 80pts for the month.

IWM closed down about $3.90 for the month and $6.20 from the months’ high.

$INDU closes the month out about 1/2 point higher but down about 400pts from the month’s high.

$SPX closes month down 21pts and down 65pts from month’s high.

* * * *

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX & the $COMPQ:

Strengthening, confirmed, Phase IV sell signal.

Today’s signs of negative strength are on par with Wednesday’s, which were some of the strongest of the year.

* * * *

8:30pm

For the few of you who are still visiting this blog, I just want to point out again that this is uncharted waters for me. According to the SG’s, this pull back is nothing at all like the pull back from mid-June to -mid-July, or any of the others. The closest I can come up with is the late February period and so I am comparing the current numbers with that period.  Any other time, the signs of negative strength that the SG’s are producing now would be considered climax signals, except when compared to the late February period.  The numbers are not wrong but there is a chance that my interpretation of the numbers is. Regardless, there is no sense in trying to front run the market on the long side right now. The market will let us all know when it’s ready to go back up.

I just took a look at the COT report and see that, as of this past Tuesday, the large contract S&P commercial hedgers have reduced their long exposure at twice the rate of the reduction in their short exposure.  Also, Alex Roslin say’s he’s going short the $SPX this coming Monday.

AAPL and GOOG have filled their earnings gap. AMZN?

And the USD was up.