I stood at the rail at Gulfstream Park in February of 2007 as Horse of the Year Invasor turned the corner, heading into the stretch in the Donn Handicap.    Suddenly, it appeared that Invasor stumbled; the crowd let out a collective gasp in fear that he would go down (he’d clipped the heals of  Barcola and was sharply pulled up by Fernando Jara).   Invasor regained his footing, but Chatain and Hesanoldsalt surged to the front.   We were, it appeared, going to be denied what we had all come to see – and worse yet, might Invasor would come up injured?  (I began to crumpled the tickets in my hand that all keyed on Invasor!)

Then, in the blink of an eye, Invasor was steadied and found room on the inside of Barcola.  He came powering forward, digging in, passing the field, and winning going away by 2 lengths.  His time was 1:48.8. It was spectacular!

Then Quality Road finished the distance in a time of 1:47.49.   Breaking the track record which he had set in the Florida Derby last year, Quality Road won the $500,000 Donn Handicap by an unbelievable 12 3/4 lengths.  OK, it wasn’t the 31 lengths that Secretariat did at the Belmont, but it was damn impressive.

The story of Quality Road reads like a novel! After he established himself as the Kentucky Derby favorite last year by his win at the Florida Derby, he found himself sidelined with foot problems.  Then, there was the Breeders Cup Classic! If you’re reading this, you saw it.  Quality Road refused to go into the gate and was eventually scratched because of injuries received during his tantrum.  The Classic was won by Zenyatta.

Todd Pletcher shows why he’s the trainer he is with the painstaking care he has taken with Quality Road in bringing him back for the run he made at the Donn.  What a Story! But, why should I go on when the story can be much better told by Washington Post columnist Andrew Beyer (one of my favorites!) in “Quality Road’s Donn Handicap win at Gulfstream Park sets up an interesting 2010 horse racing season.”

Three more days of NBA play before we take the Allstar Break.  If you read my post about the Pro Bowl, you know I won’t be playing the NBA’s Showtime experience.  (One Size Fits All – Unless it’s for the Pro Bow).  I remain on a HOT STREAK, doing better than when I was just gambling!  Pre-blogging!  Maybe I had too much time to think then, because I seem to spend all my time writing now!  Anyway, since starting this blog almost two weeks ago, I’ve made 21 picks and won 17 of them – that’s 81%.  I’ve made every play with real money.  It’s been a good two weeks.   Spread the Word!!

Take Utah Jazz  -4.5 on the Road vs. Los Angeles Clippers. These teams are going in opposite directions, and that won’t be good for the team with the worst luck in the league.   Jerry Sloan continues to keep the Jazz at the top of the Western Conference, winning 9 of their last 10, even though they didn’t have Carlos Boozer for 3 of those games.  Boozer was back Saturday, scoring 19 Points, in the Home win vs Denver.  Utah is starting a Road Trip in Los Angeles against the Clippers, who got off to a bad start under new coach Kim Hughes with a Home loss to the Kings on Saturday.

Take Oklahoma City Thunder -1 on the Road vs. Portland Trailblazers. Both of these teams have played well against Top 15 teams, but Portland is still expected to be without Brandon Roy, and the Thunder is still going to have Kevin Durant. Even though he comes out of one of the smallest markets in the NBA, Durant is blazing a trail himself throughout the NBA, popping up in every discussion about the NBA‘s Best.  The Thunder are 7-3 in their last 10 Straight Up and Against the Spread. They’ve played well on the Road all year, leading the league Against the Spread at 68% (they are 5-1 Against the Spread on the Road in their last ten games!).  A few sports books have this as a Pick’em game, but I don’t expect that to last.  Give up the Point, and go with Durant, Green,and Company.

Take Milwaukee Bucks -7 1/2 at Home vs. Detroit Pistons.  Brandon Jennings and boys have been streaky all year, and that’s good news (for Bucks fans and gamblers) at the moment.  The Bucks are hanging around the last spot in the Eastern Conference Playoff picture, and, if they were to get in and be streaking at the time, could cause havoc.  They are 7-3 in their last ten games, but Against the Spread they have been 9-1 in that same period.  They have been good at Home all season Against the Spread (65%).  There’s not much good news for Detroit.  They’re 3-7 in last ten and only win Against the Spread 41% of the time on the Road.

It was good to end the NFL Season with a win on the Super Bowl (Take Saints +5 in Super Bow), but football will be missed by This Pro Gambler.  But, we move on, and I did my first NCAA Basketball pick post-Blog yesterday, where I won with Villanova over West Virginia.  Tonight I’m moving from the Big East to the Big Ten.

Take Wisconsin -7 1/2 at Home vs Illinois. The Big Ten is a log jam at the top; Wisconsin, Illinois, and Ohio St trail Michigan State by only 1 game (Purdue is just one more back).  Illinois has improved since they were hammered by Mizzou at Christmas, but they haven’t improved enough.  I won’t be surprised if the Badgers have a double digit win.  Wisconsin has an 18 game home winning streak, and they wins 64% of the time Against the Spread at Home.  In the spirit of full disclosure, however, I should note that it was Illinois that killed Wisconsin’s 30+ home winning streak – but that was back in 2005!

Read my take at Where’s the “Manning is the Greatest” Talk Today? Let me know your opinion!

In This Pro Gambler’s last poll, 50% of you voted Kobe Bryant as the Greatest Laker of all times!  Magic Johnson pulled in 39% of the vote, with Kareem Abdul Jabbar pulling in most of the rest.  See Best Laker, All Time!

How much difference a day can make.  On the morn of the Super Bowl, it was all about Peyton Manning. The NFL’s MVP was being discussed in same conversation as four time Super Bowl winner Joe Montana as the Greatest Quarterback of All Time (what about Terry Bradshaw, who also has four rings).  Three time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady wasn’t even getting a mention in the discussion.

Then, after Tracy Porter’s Pick Six, the whole conversation changed!  Somehow, Manning looking smaller to everyone, more human.  Manning had help – Porter read the play perfectly, while Reggie Wayne (who’s injuries might be an excuse) did little to be in position to stop the steal – but I’m sure Manning would like to have the throw back – it was a play that New Orleans was expecting, and the cerebral Peyton Manning should have anticipated the defense and taken counter measures.

Of course, we’re all human, and it isn’t Manning’s fault we put him on this pedestal.  He’s a great quarterback, who led a first year coach and a lack luster squad of receivers to a Super Bowl a year or two ahead of its time (remember Marvin Harrison).  Manning may have been his own worst enemy, taking a team that wasn’t quite ready to the world’s stage (they had the potential to be undefeated!).   So, will Manning lose esteem?  I don’t know, but the Colts will be a favorite to be back at Super Bowl XLV, and likely a favorite to win.

Odds came out while this post was being written:  early numbers show the Colts the 7-1 favorite to win the 2011 Super Bowl followed by the San Diego Chargers (8-1), the New Orleans Saints (9-1), and the New England Patriots (10-1).

The NFL is now officially over (long live the NFL), and its time to bring NCAA Basketball into focus along with the NBA.  And, as if we needed further enticement, Big Monday brings us two Top Ten Match-Ups, one of which is my best play of the day.

Take Villanova +5.5. The Villanova Wildcats seems have lost a lot of respect after traveling into D.C. in the middle of a snow storm and hanging up their second loss of the year.  Bob Huggins West Virginia Mountaineers came out favored by 4.5 Points in tonight’s game, and the line quickly moved to 5.5.   But, the Villanova Wildcats have an almost freakish number Against the Spread this year, winning 71% of the time.  These two teams split last year, with each winning at home.  Tonight’s game figures to be close and I expect a win, either way, to be within the spread.

Take Mavericks -5. Dallas Mavericks are on the Road in northern CA.  While the Golden State Warriors have played well Against the Spread at Home (57%), they have only won 1 of their last 10 tens and are 3-14 vs. Top Ten teams.  The Mavs have played well on the Road Against the Spread (58%), and while they are less than “hot” going 5-5 in their last ten, they will have enough to cover.

Wales kicking coach, Neil Jenkins, says he doubts Warren Gatland will drop Alun Wyn Jones for Wales’s crucial match against Scotland on the weekend.

In the wake of Wales’s 30-17 defeat at Twickenham, Gatland was enraged by Jones’s trip on England hooker Dylan Hartley which saw the lock sin-binned and Wales subsequently concede 17 unanswered points.

Jenkins said: “I think we’ve all made mistakes and Alun made one on the weekend, and we’ve had other players in the past that have been sin-binned, and we’ve come through it unscathed.

“On Saturday we didn’t, we conceded some points, but it’s one of those things. I think we learned from it and we move on.

“I think sometimes some things are said, aren’t they? Alun’s a fantastic rugby player.

“He’s made a genuine mistake and we’ve got to accept that, deal with it and move on and hopefully discipline-wise we’ll be fine next Saturday.”

And Jones’s teammates have continued to back him, Bradley Davies and Shane Williams, the latest to come out in support of the 6ft 6ins second row.

Jones’s Osprey team mate said: “I know what it’s like to make a mistake, I wouldn’t solely put it on Alun-Wyn, obviously it contributed, it put us under the cosh and unfortunately 17 points were scored.

There were a lot of other boys on the pitch trying there best but unfortunately it didn’t work out, on another day it could’ve been someone else and they get away with it.

He is more disappointed about it than anyone else on the field.  He has learnt his lesson.  There are a lot of disappointed Welsh people out there, but there isn’t one more unhappy and gutted than Alun-Wyn.I hope he plays and on form he certainly should be.”

Davies also came out in support of his second row rival and said: “I think he’s a world-class player. He showed that for the Lions in the summer, I’m obviously disappointed for Al but he’s a great player and he’ll bounce back.”

The Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year!  There are so many options  for Super Bowl XLIV, it’s difficult to keep it simple, but that’s what I always recommend.  If this were any other game (not the Super Bowl), the Indianapolis Colts would be a 2 or 3 Point favorite. The Vegas odds makers put the game up originally at 3 1/2 Points (Colts).  The betting public jumped all over the Colts driving the number up.  When it reached 4 1/2 the “computer guys” and “wiseguys” begin to come back in on the New Orleans Saints, driving the number back down briefly, but the fans reacted by putting more money on the Colts.  Now the number is “dead” at 5.

This has been an interesting betting trend particularly in light of the fact that the New Orleans Saints are clearly a sentimental favorite.  They’ve taken on the identity of the battered residents of New Orleans during and after Hurricane Katrina and who could not wish them well – they (the fans of the Saints) have suffered enough; let them have their day.  But, in spite of this, the novice betting public sees Peyton Manning as perhaps the best quarterback in NFL history.  He’s seen as a field general that will take control and do what’s necessary to get the job done – to take home another Super Bowl ring to confirm his greatness.

Not only is the betting public influenced by the Manning mystic, but they saw New Orleans limp at the end of the regular season, losing 3 in a row. And, some wonder if they would even be in the Super Bowl if the Minnesota Vikings hadn’t turned the ball over 5 times.

Don’t be fooled. The Saints deserve to be in the Super Bowl, after averaging 38 Points in their two Playoff games.  Anybody thinking straight would agree that the two best teams in the NFL this season are going to face off Sunday in Miami.

So, how do I make money on the game?

TAKE SAINTS +5. Manning may well lead the Colts to victory, but the Saints will be competitive and stay close – they could easily win.  The Point Spread is too big and taking the Saints +5 gives you the most opportunities to win.

Pass on the Total Points Over/Under. For this expected shootout, the “Over” is going to take a lot of money from the betting public.  The number is setting on 57, the highest number ever for a Super Bowl. Could they hit it?  Sure.  But, even in its shootout with Bret Favre and Company the total points was only 59.  The Saints have been in 8 games this year where the Total Points exceeded 57 Points; the Colts were in 3 such games. The Saints scored an average of 32 Points per game, while giving up an average of 21 Points (Average Total Game Points:  53).  The Colts scored an average of 26 points, and gave up an average of 19 (Average Total:  45).   If I had to guess right or die, I would take the under on the 57 Points for the Super Bowl. Even if both teams run up the score as anticipated, the total score could fall well short of 57.  But, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they hit 57+, so I’m just passing on the bet (often the smartest play!)

Prop Bets. It’s entertaining, if nothing else, to see all the Prop Bets available for the Super Bowl – if conversation goes stale during the hours of pregame hype, pull out the prop bet and read them aloud!  Who will win the toss?  (Whether the toss will be heads or tails!?!)  Which team will be first to score, fumble, cross midfield, get in the red zone…  There’s an over/under on % of Completed Passes for both Quarterbacks; yards rushed by running backs; receiving yards; and touchdowns scored by teams and individuals.  There’s actually some potential money to be made on Super Bowl MVP props (e.g., 15/2 on Reggie Bush; 2/1 for Drew Brees — Peyton Manning is the favorite at less than even money. I generally steer clear of prop bets, but I do like the over/under on total punts is 7 1/2. 

Money Line. The Money Line for the Saints sets at +160 (It was as high as +175).  For a team that could well win the game, that’s very generous, so generous that I considered getting cute with it by betting  the Saints money line against the Colts +5.  I win big if the Saints win; but If the Colts win, and do so by more than 5, I don’t lose much.  The downside, if the Colts win by less than 5, I lose both bets.  I decided to put it all on the Saints +5 instead.

Good luck!

The NBA is trying to put money in our pockets for the Super Bowl!  There are a number of potentially profitable plays slated for tonight.  Four games have a handicapping edge with plays on Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Portland. I look to see Utah and Charlotte win, but I don’t like where the line has been placed so I’m passing.  And, Mother Nature has snowed-out our opportunity to win with the Hawks in the Nation’s Capital.

Take Oklahoma City -4 on the Road at Golden State.  When you wake up in the morning, who’s going to be the NBA scoring leader?  Not LeBron, not Kobe, not even Dwyane Wade (they’re 3rd, 4th, and 5th).  Nope.  It will likely be Kevin Durant, currently 2nd, who is about to pass Carmello Anthony.  Playing in a small market, Durant  is going largely unnoticed, but he will soon be discovered as one of the NBA’s new star.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 4 of their last 5 games.  Although they only beat the spread in 3 of those games, they win Against the Spread 67% of the time on the Road.  The Golden State Warriors are 3-14 against top 10 teams and are on an 0-5 losing streak.  Note:  Golden State did keep the Thunder from covering  8 1/2 Points  on Jan. 31 in Oklahoma City (a game the Warriors lost).  But, don’t expect that to happen tonight.

Take the Bucks – 6 1/2 at Home vs Pacers. The Milwaukee Bucks has been a roller coaster this year, but they are 4-1 in their last five games Straight Up and Against the Spread (I won with them last night at New York).  This line is short and I expect the Bucks to cover like they have done 64% of the time at Home this season.  The Indiana Pacers are also coming off back to back games; they beat the Pistons in Indiana last night.

Take Cavaliers -12 1/2 at Home vs Knicks. LeBron and Company don’t look like they intend to lose another game.  They have won 10 games in a row and have covered the spread (usually large) in the last 5.  Even at 12 1/2 Points, this line is short; I expected it to come out at 14+.  The Cleveland Cavaliers are rested (beat Miami Thursday) and are nearing the end of a long homestand.  The New York Knicks are going back to back (home/road) coming off a tough loss to Milwaukee in Madison Square Garden last night and are 1-4 in their last five (2-3 Against the Spread).  The Knicks are 3-12 vs. Top Ten Teams.

Take Portland +3 at Home vs. Lakers. Can the Lakers lose back to back?  They were humiliated by Chauncey Billups and the Carmelo-less Denver Nuggets last night.  The Los Angeles Lakers are a championship team and will be playing with a purpose tonight, but as good as he played last night Kobe is still injured and will be tired.  The Portland Trailblazers had last night off after beating San Antonio at Home on Thursday.  Because of the emotions potentially involved, I would not be playing this game if the betting public was not making the Lakers a 3 Point favorite.  I handicapped this as a Pick’em game even without the Kobe injury.

Other Games of Interest. I was going to play Atlanta -5 in the Nation’s Capital, but the game has been postponed by the  snow storm that may drop 3 feet of snow on Washington D.C. (didn’t hurt Georgetown today, who man handled No. 2 Villanova!).  Finally, the Wizards catch a break!

Two other games I liked are going to get a pass because of the direction the line has gone.  Denver at Utah was a very attractive game.  Nuggets are coming off the emotional high from their stunning defeat of the Lakers, and while Carmelo Anthony could return to some action tonight, you can expect a let down from the team, who must be physically and emotionally drained.  Utah Jazz are rested, have won 9 of their last 10, and play well at home (winning Against the Spread 67% of the time).  But, the line is currently -8. That’s about twice what I was hoping to see.  If the line backs off, I will reconsider playing Utah in this game.

New Orleans at Charlotte is the other game where the line has gone the wrong direction.  The line is -8 1/2 for Charlotte and while I think that is too high, I’m not going to play the Hornets who are still reeling from their loss of Chris Paul.  New Orleans lost at Home last night to the 76ers even though favored.  They are 1-4 Straight Up and Against the Spread in their last five games.  Charlotte is rested, 4-1 Against the Spread in their last 5, and plays well at home (61% Against the Spread).  But this line is also about double what I expected.

Winning Steak – Jump on! Still not sure how to get the word out, but I’m winning and it’s all free!  And, it’s going to continue to be FREE. So, help me spread the word!  If you’ve found This Pro Gambler’s Blog,  please tell someone else!

If my first week of Posted FREE PICKS on This Pro Gambler’s Blog I recommended 14 NBA games.  I won 12 of them!  That’s 86%! Now, I don’t promise to stay in that rarefied air.  (Like any gambler, I’m looking to profit if I can win 60%+ of my picks.)   But, I’m going to win.  It’s the only way you can remain a Professional Gambler.  And, I’ll cover more than the NBA.  I have Super Bowl picks going up later today.  I play a lot of college basketball and, in season, the NFL, college footballl, and the MLB.  I play a fair amount of horse racing, particularly the big races where the public money comes in (looking at the Donn at Gulfstream today).  And, I occasionally handicap tennis, golf, and the NHL.  But, this week, I have focused on the NBA because blogging has taken up a lot of my handicapping time!

The “tout sheet” guys are all over the place.  Some are great analyst and you get great value.  Some (most) are just throwing darts at the wall.   I won’t mention any names, but getting the opinion of a good analyst can be well worth the price.

But, I don’t sell picks…I don’t sell anything...I started This Pro Gambler’s Blog to give you my analysis for free! To give you plays that I am putting real money on, just like you.

Why?  What’s in it for me? What I hope to do is create a place where other people like me – real gamblers – can come together and share their research, strategies, and systems without the salesmanship, without the hype.  Any good gambler is doing a lot of research. There are not short cuts to success (isn’t it that way with everything).  It’s why I only play a few games a day rather than giving a pick on everything like some of the tout sheets.  Now, maybe a few have the man(woman)power for that.  But, not me.  Could I have an opinion on every game?  Sure.  But, I‘m giving you the picks that I have selected to play – the bets that I am making. That’s my GUARANTEE – If I recommend it, I am putting my own money on it. Remember, it’s not how many tickets you cash, it’s how much profit you have at the end of the day!

To me, it’s all about making money.  If I don’t cover the game that’s of interest to you, you’ll have to go elsewhere for info on that game or, as I’ve said before, make you best assessment and put an ACTION bet on it.  (One Size FIts All – Unless it’s for the Pro Bowl).  Save the real money for the real plays.

Value tonight is with Road teams in the two biggest media markets in the country.   Milwaukee Bucks could win straight up at Madison Square Garden in what ought to be a Pick’em game (but Knicks are 2 Point favorite)  Denver Nuggets will use the Points to beat the spread against the Lakers and the limping Kobe Bryant.  Going to take a break from the Hawks.  But, for those who need more, I look for the Hornets to continue to reel from a Paul-less lineup.

1. Take Milwaukee Bucks +2. Milwaukee and New York meet from opposite directions with the Bucks getting thumped in Orlando Tuesday  night (82-99) and the Knicks putting it to the Wizards on Wednesday (107-85).  But, this really should be a Pick’em game (the line started out at +3 for the Knicks but is pulling back).  The Bucks are 3-2 in last five and, more importantly, 4-1 Against the Spread, and they have played well ATS all year on the Road (56%).
2. Take Denver Nuggets +8.   Even if Kobe was full strength, this line is too high – and, he’s not, listed as questionable for the game.  Of course, I expect the Iron Man “Kobe Bryant” to suit up and be on the floor (seems like he’s been injured all year, but I can’t remember him missing any playing time!!  O, yeah, and he’s second in the League in scoring!).  But even without Carmelo (who is not expected to play), the Nuggets are 4-2 straight up; they are 8-2 in their last ten.  Denver hasn’t played all that well Against the Spread on the Road this year (38%), but give them too many points and a limping Kobe Bryant, and they will find a way to beat the spread.

Too many NBA stars are getting banged up – Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, Paul Pierce, Yao Ming, Blake Griffin, to name only a few.  It was just last year that the entire picture may have been changed with an injury to Kevin Garnett.  I wonder if David Stern is on the phone with Roger Goodell, who has revamped the NFL rules to keep his quarterbacks on the field!

You can catch the Nuggets vs Lakers as the late ESPN game tonight.  The first ESPN game puts Bulls at Hawks, a game I would have played if Atlanta hadn’t struggled a bit the past week – while the Hawks are 62.5% (68% at Home) ATS this year, they are 1-3-1 over the past week.  (And, Hawks were the only two bets I’ve lost since last Saturday, so I will sit them out tonight!)    One more game of interest:  Philadelphia at New Orleans.  76ers are better than average Against the Spread on the Road, and I expect the Hornets will continue to have post-Paul Stress Syndrome (they are 1-2 since Paul went down).

The pay-per-view portion of UFC 109 will open with old dogs (Serra/Trigg) and close with older dogs (Couture/Coleman). Not surprisingly, the most interesting fights take place somewhere in between. It’s always a pleasure to see Nate Marquardt in action, and Miller vs Maia should be compelling, as well. And hey, at least it’s not UFC 108 amiright?

Oaklawn Park has agreed to put up a $5 million purse for the April 3rd G1 Apple Blossom if Horse of the Year finalists Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are entered to run!  Talks have taken place with both camps and it looks like they’re putting Hot Springs on their travel itinerary.   It will give us one of the more exciting pre-Derby match-ups in a while.

But, how about we get greedy and go for a SERIES OF RACES matching the two horses.  (Or, for that matter, an annual series that matches up the two best horses of the season!).  Not my idea I’m sorry to say.  Read Lisa Grimm’s Superfecta Blog at TVG.

Now, what kind of excitement would that add to the horse racing season!?!

I made my money this week!  Winning 9 of 11 Bets put on NBA games (the only recs I made in the first five days of blog).  A handful of people have found me (thanks Rocketman, MadMax, and Angel), but most of you didn’ – EVEN THOUGHT THIS IS ALL FREE.  Now, I know it takes time.  But, there’s already a story to tell and it’s time to get the word out.  SO, I HOPE YOU’LL HELP ME GET THE WORD OUT!

Here were my results for the last five days (winning bets in blue):

Saturday, Jan. 30
1.  Play:  Take Hawks +5 1/2 Points at Orlando.  I lost this bet when Atlanta went into the tank by a score of 86-104.
2.  Play:  Take Trailblazers + 8 1/2 Points at Dallas.  The Trailblazers not only beat the spread, but won outright 114-112.

Sunday, Jan. 31
1.  Play:  Take 76ers -2 1/2 at Nets.  Philadelphia won the game by 4 Points with a score of 83-79.
2.  Play:  Take Cavaliers -9 1/2 at Home vs. Clippers.  Cleveland more than covered, easily winning 114-89.

Tuesday, Feb. 2
1.  Play:  Take Pistons -2 1/2 at Nets.  Playing against the Nets worked again when the Detroit won by 4 1/2 Points with a score of 97-93.
2.  Play:  Take Rockets -7 at Home vs. Warriors.  Houston won this game 119-97, an 18 point difference.

Wednesday, Feb. 3
1.  Play:  Take Thunder -2 at Hornets.  Oklahoma City won this gave by 103-99, covering by 4 Points.
2.  Play:  Take Hawks -9 1/2 at Home vs. Clippers.  Atlanta started this game very slow, then came back to win 103-97.  But, they didn’t cover and I lost the bet.
3.  Play:  Take Hornets +9 at Lakers.  Hornets played a tough game, losing 97-99, but they kept the Lakers from Covering the Spread.
4.  Play:  Take Suns +7 at Nuggets.  The Suns won the game outright with a final score of 109-97.
5.  Play:  Take Heat +5 1/2 at Celtics.  In a close one, the Heat lost 97-99; but they kept Boston from covering.

(I’m taking note of the two bets lost on Atlanta to Cover!)

So, there it is.  11 Plays, 9 Wins…..that’s 82%.  Now, I don’t claim I will always hit these numbers, but over the years I win.  So tell somebody!

Betting public is focused on the Super Bowl (and college basketball), but two of the best bets tonight are in the NBA.  And, if the Thunder and Hawks are not enough, there are several other games to check out.  PLUS, the Portland Trailblazers at Utah Jazz ought to be a great game to watch!

1. Thunder to Cover 2 Points.  Durant and Company are going back to back after a big win over Atlanta yesterday.  There could be some let down, but not as much as the New Orleans Hornets are feeling over the loss of Chris Paul.  ( Hornets fans have Drew Brees and the Saints to keep their spirits up for now!).  At mid-season, the Thunder are the NBA’s best Against the Spread on the Road (69.6%).  NBA’s TEN BEST BETS ON THE ROAD – What’s that Sound? It’s Traveling Thunder!
2. Hawks to Cover 9 1/2 Points.  With Marcus Camby back (though still not looking 100%), the Clippers managed to beat the Bulls to stop the blood loss in a horrible streak of 4 straight losses, that included giving it up to the two worst teams in the NBA (Nets and Timberwolves).  The Hawks are playing back to back from a loss last night on the road in Oklahoma City.  But, there’s a reason why Atlanta is the NBA’s Best at Covering the Spread at Home.  NBA’s TEN BEST – Why No One Wants to Play in Atlanta or Salt Lake City!

If you need more ACTION, there are a couple of other games I recommend you look over.  While Micheal Jordan is trying to buy the team, the Charlotte Bobcats are ending a long trek to the West Coast at the Staple Center where they will give it up to the Lakers.  But, the Lakers have to Cover 9 Points and while Charlotte laid an egg in Portland on Monday, they won straight up the 3 previous West Coast games.  Lakers looked like a new tougher version of themselves in their win over Boston, but expect a step back in intensity tonight.

Phoenix at Denver has possibilities.  The 7 Points to Denver is too high.  Yet, even without Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets have been red hot, winning 9 of last 10.  With Nash and Company trying to extend a 3 game winning streak, it ought to be a great game to watch.

As exciting as Dwayne Wade is, the Miami Heat is really unpredictable.  But, if Paul Pierce isn’t playing tonight, Miami plus 5 1/2 Points has possibilities.

Then, as noted above, when it’s all said and done you can end the day watching the Trailblazers vs. Jazz.  Utah is hot, winning 9 of last 10, and the Jazz are great Against the Spread at Home (tied with Atlanta at Mid-Season for being No. 1)  (NBA’s TEN BEST – Why No One Wants to Play in Atlanta or Salt Lake City!).  But, the 7 Points that Utah has to cover looks high.  Portland is coming off 2 wins and is strong Against the Spread on the Road.  (NBA’s TEN BEST BETS ON THE ROAD – What’s that Sound? It’s Traveling Thunder!)

What do the Nets and Lakers have in common? They’re two of the worst teams in the NBA to bet on the Road!   I admit there’s a pretty big difference between the two – over 10% -  but it just goes to show that it’s not all about winning – it’s about COVERING THE SPREAD.  In last weeks Blog NBA – Spread ‘Em – Pass the Bread and Butter , I hit the highlights of the mid-season NBA Spread Report.  Here’s the final installment – the WORST TEN ON THE ROAD – the teams least likely to cover the spread:

1. New Jersey Nets                              30.4% Loses Against the Spread
2. Los Angeles Lakers                          40.0%
3. Denver Nuggets                               40.0%
4. Detroit Pistons                                 40.0%
5. Toronto Raptors                               41.7%
6. Washington Wizards                     42.9%
7. New York Knicks                                 45.0%
8. Los Angeles Clippers                      45.5%
9. Houston Rockets                             45.8%
10. Minnesota Timberwolves           45.8%

I won’t be recommending any presumption strategy against any other team on this lis (except the Nets and Lakers)t, but if a game is up in the air, these numbers could be useful.

For Favorites Against the Spread on the Road, check out my earlier post NBA’s TEN BEST BETS ON THE ROAD – What’s that Sound? It’s Traveling Thunder!

For Favorites Against the Spread at Home, check out  NBA’s TEN BEST – Why No One Wants to Play in Atlanta or Salt Lake City!

For the Worst Against the Spread at Home, take a look at  NBA’s WORST TEN AT HOME – Listen to the Home Dogs Bark.

Digging into the bottom of the barrel for today’s plays, but, hey, they pay in the same dollars.

1. Pistons to Cover 2 1/2. Some trend has to give!  Nets are 35% Against the Spread at Home; Detroit is 40% Against the Spread on the Road.  The Pistons are 4-6 in their last ten, but, oh yeah, that’s as many games as the Nets have won all year!  The line is short - Detroit should be favored by 4 or 5 Points – so I’m playing the edge.
2. Rockets to Cover 7 Points.   Houston has been in the dumps, losing 6 of last 10.  But, Golden State is only 2 of 8.  This line is  short, with an edge to the Rockets.  (I actually got in on this at 6 1/2, but by the time of this post, the line has gone to 7).

There are some other interesting games, but with no a real gambling edge.  Best game of the night should be Atlanta at Oklahoma City.  Kevin Durant has become one of the TOP TEN players in the NBA (maybe top 5).  Thunder is favored by 1 because of the Home Court Advantage, but the Hanks are great Against the Spread on the Road (and at home).  Great game to watch and make an ACTION BET for your favorite team!  (Read about Action Bets in my post One Size Fits All – Unless it’s for the Pro Bowl).

The upstart Grizzlies team playing at Cleveland has potential, but Memphis is coming off their Laker high and is hitting the Road after playing Kobe and Company last night (where they let Bryant become the all time leading scorer for the Lakers, but they stopped Phil Jackson from passing Pat Riley in Lakers wins!).  How well has Memphis played after the non-start with the failed Allen Iverson experiment (the “2010 Allstar Allen Iverson!)?  LeBron and boys are favored by 10 1/2 and are notoriously bad at Covering the Spread at Home, but a Grizzlies let down is too likely.

Nobody handicaps a horse race without looking at the Beyer Speed Figures.  With these numbers, Andrew Beyer changed how we handicap a horse race – the Big Daddy of All Sports Wagering Events.  He’s also a great writer – columnist for the Washington Post – and a guy that is a must read.

I’ve hung around the South Florida tracks a lot, felling all “Del Mar” at the fancy, but small, Gulfstream Park, but rolling up my sleeves and being really at home at Calder, where we all – trainers, jockeys, owners, gamblers – are just trying to pay the bills.  Anyone at the track the last few years knows about Kirk Ziadie.  I love a good trainer angle, and there was none better in South Florida than betting on Ziadie when he’s running a horse for the first time after a claim.  It was money in the bank (thought more and more difficult to get any odds!).  There were plenty of rumors … as Andrew Beyer says, Ziadie “is either a cheater or an amazing horseman.”

Apparently, Calder has had enough and sent him packing.  Ziadie is not to be kept down, however – he has moved in to the backside at Laurel Park.  Get the details from Andrew Beyer’s Jan. 30 article in the Washington Post – Kirk Ziadie’s presence at Laurel Park is a new low for Maryland horse racing.

Jamie Roberts has vowed to hit the heights in this year’s Six Nations as Wales target a fourth consecutive win over the old enemy.

Since returning from South Africa, Roberts has struggled to hit the form which saw him named Lions Man of the Series.  But the 6 ft 4ins powerhouse is determined to make a big impact in this year’s tournament.

Roberts said: “I’m passionate about playing for Wales and that hasn’t changed.  I’m hugely determined to earn the right to wear the red jersey of Wales and perform when I wear it. It’s just a huge honour.

“There are always doubters out there but I feel fresh and I feel in form.  It was nice to get some tries under my belt last weekend, against Harlequins, and I feel back at the top of my game.

“There’s always people trying to knock you down, but I just get on with it, I train hard, work hard and just try to stay at the required level.

“Things have come so quickly for me that there is an expectation to perform.  It’s tough, but I’m not one to shy away from it, I just embrace it and enjoy it.”

And Roberts, who has been criticised for being quiet at times on the pitch, believes it is time for him to raise his game to the next level and become a more prominent leader within the set up.

“I enjoy responsibility, it’s something I thrive upon.  I believe it’s time to step up and deliver.  The Six Nations is a huge tournament, I feel I’m at about the stage where I really need to kick on and show more leadership.”

Twickenham provides a happy hunting ground for Roberts, having won on both occasions he has played there.  First came the Cardiff Blues EDF Cup triumph over Gloucester, then with the Barbarians.

“I won there with the Blues and the Baa-baa’s last year so Twickenham holds fond memories for me.

“And of course I always remember two years ago when we won there.  It was my first involvement in the Six Nations, I was water boy that day, but winning there really kick started us on our way to the Grand Slam.

“It’s an amazing place to play especially when it’s sold out, it should be a great occasion for the neutral.”

The game will also be the first time that Roberts lines up against the players he toured South Africa with, but the medical student does not see this as a problem.

“I don’t think it makes too much of a difference, it works both ways, you know stuff about them and they know stuff about you.  They’re guys I’ve become good friends with so I’m sure there will be an extra bit of spice and banter flying round.”

“I learnt a huge amount from Riki Flutey.  He is a very agile guy, he’s very skilful, he kicks well, passes well, plays into space and is a very tricky guy to contain.

“If he plays, whether with someone like Matthew Tait or Shontayne Hape, they can unleash the back three and be very dangerous, so our defence needs to be on the money.  But we have been doing our analysis, and I think we can contain them.

“With the ball it’s important that as a team we are scanning what’s in front of us, scanning each phase, playing clever and boxing clever around defences.”

It has been really good in camp this week, we’ve all really enjoyed it and had a bit of a laugh but there’s a good buzz about the place and a real determination to go to Twickenham and get the result.”

Tom Prydie

In 2008, as Wales marched to their second Gland Slam in four years with a 29-12 triumph over France at the Millennium Stadium, a group of 15-year-old team-mates were sat in Porthcawl Rugby Club drinking pints of orange squash.

Now almost two years later Tom Prydie finds himself included in Warren Gatland’s 35-man squad in what the 17-year-old has described as a dream come true.                                                                        “It’s amazing I couldn’t believe it at first, but it’s great to be here and it’s really starting to sink in now after meeting Warren [Gatland] and Shaun [Edwards].

“At the beginning of the season I was working towards playing each week for Swansea.

“I then got the call from Shaun Holley and Scott Johnson to train with the Ospreys and was hoping to get the odd game in the LV Cup or while the boys were away on international duty.  So to be here now is unbelievable.”

If Prydie does play a part in Wales’s Six Nations campaign, he will become the youngest player ever to pull on the red shirt, beating the record held by Norman Biggs who made his debut at 18 years and 24 days in 1888.

But the Ospreys’s flyer has admitted he does not expect to pull on the jersey just yet, but aims to make the most of being in an international environment.

Prydie said: “Obviously I’m not expecting to play, but if I do get on it will be a massive bonus.”

He faces a tall order if he is to be included in a match-day squad, with the likes of Lee Byrne, Shane Williams and Leigh Halfpenny all ahead of him in the pecking order – but Prydie was full of praise for the Ospreys duo.

“I don’t model my game on any particular player, but there are boys that I keep an eye on.  At fullback, players like Lee Byrne and Rob Kearney on the Lions tour were obviously fantastic.

“Shane Williams is another, he is one of the best players in the world, so you always try to pick things up from them but I just love watching rugby and trying to develop my own game.

“Speed is definitely one of my biggest strengths.  I have always been quick. I did a bit of athletics and represented Wales at the UK school games, but the boys there were a different class.”

If Prydie is involved in a match day squad he will follow in the footsteps of James Hook and Leigh Halfpenny who were both plucked from relative obscurity to play for Wales and Gatland will hope Prydie can have the same impact in this year’s Championship.

RHYS GILL

At the end of last season Rhys Gill feared his professional career was over.  He had been released by the Cardiff Blues and could not secure a contract at any of the other regions.  He was the unwanted man of Welsh rugby.

But after crossing the border to join Saracens, Gill has capped an astonishing turnaround with a call-up to the Six Nations squad.

“It is incredible, I was not expecting it at all and didn’t believe it at first – I thought it was a joke.  I knew the squad was being announced at 1pm, and after training I had a text saying I had been selected for the Six Nations squad.  I was ecstatic when I saw that.

“If you asked me last year if I would be sitting here today I would’ve said there was no chance in hell.

“I tried to get a contract with Cardiff but they’ve got some quality props like Gethin Jenkins who is just a legend, and said they had no room on their books.

“I tried the other regions but there was nothing available. Nobody wanted me.  I thought perhaps it wasn’t to be and began looking for full-time work in quantity surveying, while talking to Cardiff and Neath about playing semi-pro.

“But then quite late on, Saracens said they wanted to offer me a contract to become their third choice prop.”   Since then it has been onwards and upwards for the 18 stone prop.  He has been selected in the Saracens match-day squad on 21 occasions and received plaudits from a range of English commentators for his all-round performances.

Gill said: “I’ve started about 13 games so far, I didn’t expect that at all.  My goal for this season was to get involved in 10 games but things have just taken off, it’s been fantastic.

“Carlos Nieto the tight-head prop is a fantastic scrummager, he has been fantastic with me up there.

“All he wants to do is scrummage, that’s all he wants to do all day every day, and one of the coaches, Cobus Visagie is another legend of scrummaging so he’s taught me a lot.”

Gatland will almost certainly start with the Lions Test trio of Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rhys and Adam Jones against England and Gill knows he will be left to fight it out with Eifion Roberts and Paul James to secure a place on the bench.

“To get in a match day squad will be a dream but I’m just going to get my head down, work hard and see what happens.

“My friends and family have been ecstatic and really supportive, when I got the text I turned my phone off not sure whether to believe it.  I turned it back on and had 42 messages, so they’ve all been brilliant.”

by ThisProGambler

In last Thursday’s Blog NBA – Spread ‘Em – Pass the Bread and Butter , I hit the highlights of the mid-season NBA Spread Report.  Here’s the complete TOP TEN for Covering the Spread on the Road:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder                69.6%  Covers the Spread
2. Dallas Mavericks                              62.5%
3. Atlanta Hawks                                  61.9%
4. Portland Trailblazers                      61.9%
5. Philadelphia 76ers                          60.9%
6. Cleveland Cavaliers                        58.3%
7. Charlotte Bobcats                            57.1%
8. Milwaukee Bucks                            56.5%
9. Utah Jazz                                             55.0%
10. Golden State Warriors                  54.5%

Take note when the Oklahoma City Thunder is playing on the Road.   So far, the betting public is under estimating Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and company.

For Favorites Against the Spread at Home, check out my earlier post, NBA’s TEN BEST – Why No One Wants to Play in Atlanta or Salt Lake City!

For the Worst Against the Spread at Home, check out NBA’s WORST TEN AT HOME – Listen to the Home Dogs Bark.

by ThisProGambler

Sports book is hoppin’ today!  I hope you got in on the Cavs at 9 1/2.  Two hours before tip-off it’s moved to 12.  As I said in my Daily Play post, I thought the math came out to 13 or 14, but with the Cavs poor record at covering at home, I like this game a lot less at 12 Points.

And as Angel 12895 points out in his comment to Play the 76ers and Cavs, but put the TV on Lakers at Celtics! the line on the Lakers/Celtics game moved from Celtics -2 to the Lakers -1 1/2!

For those of you that play poker, you know it’s all about getting your money in when the numbers are on your side.  You win some; lose some – why they call it gambling!  Didn’t lose any money last night (except the vig), but didn’t make any either splitting on Atlanta (rushed by Orlando) and Portland (who didn’t need the 8.5 Points vs Dallas, who they nipped in OT).  From my two daily play posts, that’s 4 out of 6  (67%).

NBA THIS SUNDAY:

….

1. Philadelphia 76ers will cover.  The Jekyll and Hyde Sixers are the worst team in the NBA against the spread at home, but they cover over 60% of the time on the road.  Sunday they’re playing the lowly Nets, the worst home team in the NBA against the spread.  NBA – Spread ‘Em – Pass the Bread and Butter.
2. Take LeBron and Shaq and give up 9 1/2 points.  The Cavs are not a great team against the spread at home, but I wouldn’t have been surprised had the points been 4 or 5 points higher.  Cleveland has won 7 in a row.  The Clippers should have everyone back on the floor, but they’re still banged up and coming off three straight losses.

GAME TO WATCH:  Lakers vs. Celtics, the championship rematch of two years ago.  It still hurts Kobe and company; Boston fans say the Lakers wouldn’t have won last year if the Celtics had been healthy at the end of the season.  Lakers fans retort that the Celtics won’t make it to the Championship this year, being maybe the third or even fourth best team in the east (behind the Cavs, Magic, and Hawks).  I could go on, but you get the idea.  Should be a great game.

by ThisProGambler

There is a betting  line  for the NFL Pro Bowl…..NFC is favored by 3 Points!  Who makes this bet!  O, the guy that bets live action throwing a dart at whether the team with the ball will make a first down this possession!

Noticing the line made me want to pontificate a bit about betting.   I do understand an ACTION BET….it’s just more fun to watch when you have a personal stake!  But, I never seriously gamble just to take the action (that’s why they have gambling addiction hotlines)….and, in fact, I almost never bet against one of “my teams” (the “Pete Rose Doctrine”).

Generally, I play three types of money bets – for the most part, one size fits all….I play a single amount – my REGULAR WAGER – on most sports I bet (it’s a little more complicated with horses and casino games, but we’ll have to save that for another day). Occasionally, I like a game so much I double that amount – I give it the complicated name, my DOUBLE WAGER – you’ll know when that comes around.

The third type bet I call an ACTION BET.   A little wager – a little action – gives some added spice to watching a game. If there’s a game I plan to follow, but I don’t see a handicapping edge, I may plan an ACTION BET – usually 10% of my REGULAR WAGER – on the team I’m pushing.

Now, the Pro Bowl just doesn’t do it for me.  I love MLB’s Allstar game, and even get kind of pumped over the NBA Allstar game.  But, the Pro Bowl?  Not for me.  If your that guy that watches, then I recommend a little action bet.