NFL teams will continue to transition toward the spread offense, forcing a ton of personnel changes.

Variations of the spread offense, such as the pass-happy version the Patriots run or the Wildcat in Miami, are taking over the NFL.  In this article, we will explain how the transition of NFL offenses to the spread will affect the game, providing six fairly bold predictions and detailing how these changes will alter the Dallas Cowboys’ personnel philosophy moving forward.

1.  Within ten years, all NFL teams will be running some form of the spread as their base offense.

We’ve already seen this prediction become a reality for some teams, such as the Patriots and Saints.  Not coincidentally, these teams also generally score the most points.  Even teams that have traditionally been known as running squads, such as the Steelers and Ravens, have transitioned to a more spread-like attack in recent years.

A conversion to a spread offense, however, does not necessarily mean more passing.  The Dolphins version of the offense is extremely run-heavy, proving that the spread can allow for a diverse array of play calls.

A quick peak at college football can also yield great insights as to what the pro game will become in the near future.  There are spread offenses that throw nearly every play (Texas Tech, Hawaii), and spread offenses that run the ball a ton (Florida).

But why would college football get it right before the NFL?  First, there is no “right” offense to run.  The NFL goes through cycles where offenses adapt and defenses counter, creating periods where sometimes big, strong players are in vogue and other times small, fast players are the norm.

Second, NFL coaches are on such a short leash that a complete shift in offensive philosophy would just take too much time to manifest itself in a winning team.  A coach that leads a 5-11 team with a traditional offense is much more likely to stick around for another year than one who led the same team with an unconventional offense.  NFL owners, GM’s, and fans just have not seen enough results from a spread attack to know it will work, and thus are hesitant to embrace change.  Eventually, however, NFL offenses will slowly become more aggressive and spread offenses will become prevalent.

Impact On Cowboys: The Cowboys are still running a “traditional” offense, implementing two tight ends more than any team in the NFL in 2009.  Still, Jason Garrett is no stranger to spreading the field.  The team ran Shotgun an incredible 460 plays this season, or 46.3 percent of their meaningful plays (discounting spikes, quarterback kneels, etc).

This transition to a spread attack will continue to grow in 2010.  The Cowboys have been fairly predictable in their playcalling out of certain formations recently (see our study on Double Tight Right Strong Right).  Expect that to change in the coming years, with more and more running plays called out of Shotgun formation.

The versatility of hybrid players such as Dexter McCluster will become very valuable in the coming years.

This means that the number of two tight end sets will eventually decline.  In 2009, the team implemented two or more tight ends on 556 plays (55.9 percent), making it their base offense.  Despite the presence of three excellent tight ends, that number could dip to around 50 percent by next season.  Also expect the Cowboys to move their tight ends around the field even more when they are in the game, creating natural pre-snap running lanes.

2.  Much like the OLB/DE 3-4 hybrid position, NFL offenses will see more and more RB/WR hybrid players.

Running backs with great receiving skills have been around for awhile (Marshall Faulk comes to mind as the ultimate RB/WR), but the game is seeing a shift from running backs who can catch the ball to true hybrid players.  Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin are two current players whose games are predictive of what we will see in the near future.  College stars such as Ole Miss’s Dexter McCluster and Florida’s Jeffrey Demps are blurring the line between running back and wide receiver more than ever before.

The nature of most spread offenses is the reason for these sorts of players.  Ironically, the various personnel packages and subsequent specialization that the spread has created has led to the importance of these do-it-all-players.

The reason a great pass-catching tight end is so valuable, for example, is because of his versatility.  Tight ends that can block make defenses stay in their base personnel grouping, meaning the pass-catching ability of these players will be on display with a slower linebacker in coverage.  Should the defense bring in nickel personnel and put an extra cornerback in the game, the tight end’s blocking ability then becomes an extremely lucrative asset.

Much like the tight end position, these RB/WR hybrid players create matchup nightmares for defenses.  A personnel package that contains a player or two whose running ability is as indefensible as his receiving ability gives the defense no hint as to a possible play call, thus creating the inability to make the proper personnel substitutions.

Impact on Cowboys: This shift in the fundamental nature of offensive positions will force the Cowboys to eventually shift their personnel as well.  This could happen sooner rather than later.  While we believe the addition of Reggie Bush could create nightmare matchups for a defense and provide the Cowboys with the sort of offensive threat to which they are not accustomed, there are also a variety of players in this year’s draft who have similar traits.

The Cowboys figure to use Choice more in 2010, particularly in the Wildcat formation, which they ran 16 times in 2009.

RB/WR/Returner Dexter McCluster out of Ole Miss comes to mind first.  We love his skill set so much that we labeled him as the Cowboys’ second round pick this year.  Even players such as Cincinnati’s Mardy Gilyard who do not possess the versatility of McCluster are altering what a “prototypical” wide receiver looks like.  It is no secret the Cowboys value big, strong pass-catchers, but expect the team to add at least one smaller play-making hybrid player before the start of the 2010 season.

3.  The “Wildcat,” as one version of the spread, will flourish with better passers taking the snap.

In some ways, the Wildcat offense was already around when Michael Vick was in Atlanta.  In that version of the offense, however, the snap-taker could throw the ball incredibly well.  Before Ronnie Brown went down for the Dolphins, they had been running the Wildcat very effectively with a running back who has limited passing skills.  Imagine the efficiency of that offense with a player who could throw the ball like Michael Vick.

The reason that the Wildcat can be so effective is because the offense can use an extra blocker with the snap-taker running the football.  No quarterback is needed to hand the ball off.  Offenses can also stay in base personnel if their regular passer is versatile enough to run.  This will keep defenses off balance in both their personnel groupings and their play-calling.  It is much less risky to blitz both cornerbacks with Ronnie Brown at “quarterback” than it would be to bring pressure with Vick taking the snap.

Pat White was the first player truly taken to be a Wildcat “QB,” and there are more of them coming.  Of course, Tim Tebow is the ultimate spread offense, Wildcat-type college quarterback, and, consequently, the ultimate question mark for NFL general managers.  The range of opinions regarding Tebow’s skills varies greatly, but any team that selects him will have to implement a Florida-like spread attack to be successful.

Michael Vick was truly the originator of the Wildcat. Dual-threat quarterbacks like him will become the norm in the future.

Only time will tell if these running quarterbacks and the Wildcat offense are just fads, but we believe that, once the NFL embraces all variations of the spread, both will have their place in the league.

Impact on Cowboys: The Cowboys tried their hand at the Wildcat a bit more in 2009, running a play out of the formation 16 times.  All 16 plays were runs by Tashard Choice, five of them being inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.  Jason Garrett was smart to implement the Wildcat in goal line situations because, with little room to throw the ball and defenses expecting run anyway, the Wildcat allows the offense an extra blocker.

Despite running the ball in many short-yardage situations with limited upside, the Cowboys were fairly successful with the formation, averaging 5.7 yards-per-carry.  Expect both the number of Wildcat attempts and the average yards-per-attempt to increase next season with additional practice.

With such a talented quarterback at the helm, though, the Cowboys do not have as much need for the Wildcat as a team like the Dolphins.  Still, if the teams continues to find success with it, there is no reason to stop.

4.  In much the same way that teams have utilized two or three running backs, the majority of NFL teams will regularly use two quarterbacks.

There is no doubt that one of the main reasons against using a running quarterback in the NFL is economical.  The majority of signal-callers get paid so much money that franchises are just too invested in one player to let him get injured.

To overcome this conundrum, NFL teams will begin to use two quarterbacks.  One may be more of a passer than a runner, and the other vice versa, but both will be versatile enough so that the defense cannot predict the play call simply from the personnel.  By having two, or even three, viable running quarterbacks, offenses can make any play call without hesitation, knowing that an injury to one player would not set the team back incredibly far, either economically or from a personnel standpoint.  Traditionally, an injured quarterback basically means the end of all Super Bowl hopes for a team, but with the implementation of a two-quarterback system that the spread will invoke, this is not the case.

Furthermore, we will see teams use both quarterbacks on the field at the same time.  This will allow teams to become more aggressive in their play-calling, using more throwbacks, reverses, and so on where these hybrid players can throw downfield.

Imagine the Dolphins Wildcat system, for example, with Tim Tebow taking the snap (instead of Ronnie Brown) and Michael Vick running across on the read (instead of Ricky Williams).  There is no doubt that Brown and Williams are incredibly talented runners, but neither holds the passing ability to truly keep defenses honest.  With two QB/RB players running that scheme, the options for an offense become seemingly endless just from one play.  Tebow could keep it and run, keep it and pass, give it and have Vick run, give it and have Vick pass, give it and have Vick throwback, and so on.

Impact on Cowboys: This scenario is much further down the road than the other predictions.  Still, just as Dallas transitioned from a one-running back offense to a three-headed rushing attack, the same sort of alteration will take place at quarterback.  Instead of being worried about the season being flushed down the toilet with an injury to the star quarterback, the Cowboys will be able to let these playmakers run free without hesitation.

Jason Witten's ability to block is the primary reason for his pass-catching success.

Further, the money that will be saved by not dishing out tens of millions of dollars to a franchise quarterback can be used to stockpile talent at the other positions.  Eventually, however, the value of these hybrid players will decrease and, like all NFL trends, the cycle will repeat itself.

5.  The pure pass-catching tight end will die out and be replaced by a more versatile hybrid player.

As I explained before, tight ends are so valuable to an offense because of their versatility.  Defenses must stay in base personnel to account for the tight end’s ability to block, creating mismatches on the tight end when he goes out in a route.

More and more, however, NFL teams are drafting tight ends who simply cannot block well.  This allows defenses to substitute nickel personnel when the tight end is in the game, knowing that he will not be able to block well enough for his offense to sustain a viable rushing attack.  The extra cornerback who is in the game can usually match up well with the tight end, who, although he has good receiving skills, is not as quick or talented as a pure wide receiver.  Thus, the entire reason for using a tight end– to create a mismatch– is ruined.

Impact on Cowboys: In many ways, the Cowboys have already made this prediction a reality.  All three of their tight ends, in addition to being viable receiving threats, are superb blockers.  This ability to block is actually what leads to their success in the passing game.  Does anyone truly believe Witten is a more talented receiver than, say, Sam Hurd?  In terms of athleticism and quickness, it is not even close.  Witten is much more effective than Hurd and almost all NFL pass-catchers, though, because his blocking ability allows him to attain matchups with linebackers who simply have no shot at covering him.

Although superb in man coverage, Terence Newman has the strength and versatility to convert to any defensive scheme.

6.  True man coverage will all but disappear and more teams will run a 3-4 defense.

The reason for the disappearance of man coverage is two-fold.  First, the NFL’s illegal contact rule has made man-to-man coverage nearly impossible.  Even when teams appear to be in man coverage, the cornerback generally has safety help over the top.

Second, with the offenses transitioning to running quarterbacks, the risk of playing man coverage, or even 2-man under (man coverage underneath with two safeties deep), is just too great.  With defenders’ backs turned to the quarterback, it will just become too easy for the quarterback to scramble.  This man coverage-less defensive scheme was used against Michael Vick when he was quarterbacking Atlanta.

This will lead team’s to use a zone blitz for the majority of their pressures.  More and more teams will convert to a 3-4 to allow more athleticism on the field for these zone schemes to work.  Having a 350-pound defensive tackle drop into zone coverage may work once or twice a game because it can confuse a quarterback, but with the majority of blitzes becoming of the zone variety, defenses will need smaller, quicker players to combat how offenses will attack.

Impact on Cowboys: The transition to the 3-4 to combat spread attacks is obviously something Dallas has already completed.  Eventually, this could even morph into a 3-3-5 (five defensive backs and three linebackers, as compared to four of each in a 3-4).

The Cowboys are one of the few teams left that plays a lot of man coverage, but they get away with it because of the talent they have in Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins.  Further, Wade Phillips rarely dials up all-out blitzes, so the corners often have a safety or two back deep to help.

Eventually, if opposing teams acquire running quarterbacks, the Cowboys will have to ditch some of their man-to-man schemes.  Right now, though, the abilities of Newman and Jenkins allow the Cowboys’ current system to flourish.

Conclusions

The Cowboys implementation of a 3-4 defense and Wildcat formation could be seen as changes caused by the popularity of the spread offense.  As we stated, further alterations are inescapable.  Some of these could include:

• More Shotgun and less two tight end sets

• Acquisition of a Reggie Bush/Dexter McCluster type hybrid player

• More Wildcat, including the possible acquisition of a true quarterback to run the system

• Utilization of more dime packages on defense (four cornerbacks, two linebackers)

These predictions are certainly very bold and definitely not immune to criticism.  Feel free to leave feedback regarding anything with which you may agree, and anywhere you think we may have gone wrong.

• Happy birthday to my beloved girlfriend!
• Why the great Roger Craig has yet to be inducted to the NFL Hall of Fame is one of life’s great mysteries.  The former San Francisco 49er was the first running back to earn 1000 yards both in receiving and in rushing during the same season, and remains the only RB to ever lead the league in receptions in a single season.  Not only that, but he’s a proven winner:  With the 49ers, he earned three Super Bowl rings, with the Niners appearing in the NFL playoffs for each of his eight seasons with the team; after leaving the 49ers, he played for the then-Los Angeles Raiders for one season and went to the playoffs again; finally, he finished off his career with two years with the Minnesota Vikings, who also reached the playoffs while he was a member of the team.  Thus, Roger Craig was a member of eleven playoff teams, one for each of his eleven seasons in the NFL.
• Speaking of my beloved 49ers, I weep when I remember how the team shafted Jeff Garcia at the end of the 2003 season and kept Terrell Owens instead.  What a terrible personnel decision that turned out to be.
• I’m in desperate need of a haircut.  (Good thing I’m about to have one, either today or tomorrow.)
• During this time of year, it’s hard to not think about how the 49ers used to always be in the hunt for a Super Bowl.  Those days seem so far in the rear view mirror now.  At least I can take comfort in the thought that, despite the lean years since the team’s most recent Super Bowl appearance and victory in 1995, the 49ers still own one of the richest histories in the history of the league.
• Another incomprehensible move by the 49ers:  They canned Steve Mariucci as part of their attempts to appease T.O.  That led to Dennis Erickson‘s forgettable and ultimately unsuccessful tenure with the team and was the first domino that fell leading to the team’s hitherto splendid reputation crumbling.  Erickson’s stint gave way to Mike Nolan‘s well-intentioned by clumsy administration.  Nolan’s inadequacies ultimately cost him his job as 49ers Head Coach, leading to Mike Singletary‘s appointment.  Fortunately, Coach Singletary’s rule as Head Coach seems to be just the medicine the ailing 49ers have been needing, and the team has shown impressive improvement during his time at the helm.

Did you know:  The 49ers, which were naturally the first team to run the so-called West Coast Offense under Bill Walsh, no longer run Coach Walsh’s sophisticated system today?  The team last ran a variant of the system (albeit a badly bastardized version) in 2003 under Dennis Erickson; 2004 saw the Niners finish 2-14, when Erickson tried to impose his variant of a Spread Offense-style of attack (with Air Coryell principles mixed in) on a team that lacked a strong-armed quarterback (Jeff Garcia and Tim Rattay were more suited for the WCO), wide receivers with the ability to stretch the field vertically, and a playing surface/stadium that allowed for a vertical attack (the grass in Candlestick Park simply is not conducive to track meet-esque styles of football).  Coach Mariucci was the last Head Coach to run a “true” WCO with the 49ers.

Rolling around to my opinion of it all…. Alabama has had a bad habit of not playing on the national championship level that there team really is. The Tide has a tendency to bring their game down to the level of the team they are playing (see: Alabama vs. South Carolina and Alabama vs. Tennessee). I’m hoping that Alabama bring the running game with them. Mark Ingram is a fantastic back who can get the ball up field to move the chains. Quarterback Greg McElroy proved to be a lot better with the passing game last week but seemed to really be over throwing his target A LOT. If McElroy can settle down and make his assignments and the offensive line give him time to get his passes off, I think we stand to see a good passing game. If Mark Ingram can continue to get at least four yards a carry in combination with McElroy, I see no reason why Alabama could not cover the spread. Alabama has also had some issues in the red zone. (see past 3 games and you might see it) but fortunately we’ve had our field goal kicker Leigh Tiffin who has pretty much been a machine when it comes to getting the ball between the uprights (I got to give it to this kid, he has greatly improved since he first came on the scene choking at every important field goal attempted during the season). As long as Alabama plays their typical hard core defense and stops the run game, and the offense pulls together to move the ball down field and finishes in the red zone, Alabama should have no trouble beating the Bulldogs. The game will be at 7 ET/ 6 CT on ESPN.

Here he is ‘Skins. A guy who can tackle. And he’s perfect for a team that keeps beating itself. He tackles his own teammate. Sign him up.

He plays for the Las Vegas Cobras. Hmmm. Gotta wonder what the spread was on this game.

And when they talk about the spread in Vegas, they don’t mean the quarterback running the option.

‘D’ set to face Purdue spread

It is a weekend full of duds in football this weekend. Does anyone care to watch the Buffalo Bills – Carolina Panthers game? How about the New York Jets on the road against the Oakland Raiders? Whether the matchups are intriguing or not, though, football is still football and like many of you, I will still be sitting in front of the TV to watch some gridiron action. Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek have their reasons for picking the NFL matchup of Houston – San Francisco or the NCAA game between Clemson and Miami, but I am going off the radar for my pick of the week. I am focusing on Starkville, Mississippi this weekend, as the Mighty Gators of Florida come to town to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs

I know what you’re saying – “Loyal Homer, what are you smoking? Mississippi State is terrible.”

It is true that they have four losses, but look more closely at their last three. Nearly a month ago, they had then-undefeated LSU on the ropes (and probably should have won the game). The Tigers stopped the Bulldogs at the goal line, though, to hang on for the victory. The following week, a one-loss Georgia Tech squad came to town and won 42-31. One week after that, they played a one-loss Houston team that escaped with a 31-24 victory. LSU, Georgia Tech, and Houston all make for a pretty tough three-game stretch (in fact those three teams have combined for only three losses all season). All things considered, the Bulldogs should not be overlooked, especially with All-SEC running back in Anthony Dixon, who has rushed for over 3,000 yards in his collegiate career.

The Gators, as we all know, come into the game undefeated and ranked at the top of the 2009 inaugural BCS standings. Last week, they squeaked out a victory over Arkansas in a game that was filled with questionable officiating. As a side note, the officiating crew that worked the game (which is the same crew responsible for another blown-call scandal during the LSU – Georgia game earlier this month), has since been suspended for a week by the SEC. At this point, though, the Gators have failed to show the explosiveness that they demonstrated in past seasons. They do not appear to have the same caliber of playmakers at the wide receiver position, and have not shown the air of invincibility that many people expected to see.

What really makes this game intriguing is the fact that the Bulldogs are coached by Dan Mullen, who was the previous offensive coordinator of the Florida Gators. He knows and recruited many of the Florida players, and he knows many of the plays that will be run by their offense. He has also installed the spread offense at Mississippi State, which is slowly beginning to take shape. The question is – Does he have the personnel to stop the Gators?

I am not calling for an upset (which would be foolish to expect), but this game has a chance to be rather interesting. It is a night game in Starkville and the Bulldog fans are itching to have something to cheer for so they can ring those cowbells! The Gators would be wise not to overlook these Bulldogs because of another Bulldog team (from Georgia) that they will be playing next weekend. This is not going to be the cake walk that much of the country expects.

Recently, a new trend has set upon the football world—the spread offense.  This disease first took hold on the high school and collegiate levels, as a means for less athletic teams to compete with teams with more speed, size and strength. Now even athletic teams like Michigan and Florida have abandoned their proud football past and caved into the latest fad.

The spread offense annoys me. In effect, it transforms the game into a glorified version of seven-on-seven, awarding finesse over athleticism.

The spread brand of football is void of physicality.  In essence, the team that runs the spread says via their actions that they don’t have the athletes to match-up man-to-man so they must resort to “spreading” men out in order to find a hole.  Think back to the “great teams” of yesteryear.  They lined up with the mentality “you know what we are going to do, now try and stop us.”

Isn’t that what makes football great?  The battle in the trenches, running backs fighting for yardage, and quick, aggressive defenses swarming to the ball.

This doesn’t even take into account the limitations the spread place on your play calling ability.  The spread works fine within the 20’s, but deep inside the red zone or deep inside your own territory, where a power running game is beneficial, the spread is actually a liability. Nothing irks me more than to see a team drive the ball to their opponent’s 3 yard line, only to line up in a shot gun formation. Some college quarterbacks play their entire career without ever taken a snap from under center and then wonder why NFL teams skip over them in spite of gaudy statistics.

A pure form of football features a sort of fluidity that is not found with the spread attack.  Players awkwardly stand in formation as the coach signals in the play.  The quarterback anxiously reads the defense trying to spot some weakness to exploit.  The ball is moved horizontally and instead of harmony, dissonance radiates.

Perhaps John Facenda is best remembered for his description of the 1967 “Ice Bowl” at the “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field,” which makes one wonder could a “spread attack” have accomplished the comeback Bart Starr engineered?  Even as a die-hard Cowboy’s fan born 11 years after it was played, I acknowledge that the “Ice Bowl” embodies everything that is great and pure about our game of football and sadly I fear that game has been taken over by the disease we now know as the “spread offense”, destroying all the images that made this game great.

In addition, you can also enter our “Pick ‘Em Contest” and weigh in on the Top 10 by going to the football homepage here and clicking on the icons for the Pick ‘Em and the Surf Taco Fans Top 10.

I also am working on some alumni stuff and updating all of that, so I will post all of that as soon as I can get it finished.

As for today, the topic of the day is, “Why don’t more teams run the spread?” I’m talking mainly about the spread that is run at Howell, not the zone read option out of the shotgun that more teams are starting to employ. I’m talking about the no-huddle, four- and five-wide, pass-heavy spread like they run at Howell.

The reason I’m wondering is because that offense seemingly has transformed Howell’s entire program from one that mainly struggled to get to .500 and occasionally had a good year to one that is capable of winning division and state titles regularly. Since Howell’s rise, no other team has really tried to copy that type of offense and stuck with it. You would think someone would take a look at that and say, “Well, if it worked for them…”

I would figure that some program out there that has been struggling would give it a shot because opponents seem to have a hard time defending it around here because nobody runs it so they don’t see it regularly, even elite programs.

For instance, I would love to see Howell take on an attacking defense like Middletown South, which has one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the state in Al Bigos. It would be a race to see if South’s blitzers could get to Jimmy Ryan before he could get the ball to a receiver who had one-on-one coverage with a corner out on an island. Most teams don’t have that many defensive backs and linebackers who can cover good athletes one-on-one for an entire game.

One team that seems to be dialed in on it defensively is Jackson Memorial under defensive coordinator Walt Krystopik, as the Jaguars have beaten Howell in four of their last five meetings, holding the Rebels to an average of 10 points per game.

Before we go completely crazy after one game don’t forget that Ryan had a big game against Brick last year in the season opener, but once the film began to circulate and opposing coordinators had something to work with, Howell ended up averaging 17 points per game for the season. You certainly can’t pin that completely on the offense or on one player, but it shows that it gets harder to execute the more teams have seen it. The bad news is that by all accounts, Ryan has definitely improved with a year of experience and hard work in the offseason and so have the rest of the skill players, so it’s a better team than last year.

Talking the other nigh at the TR East game to Mike McGarry of The Press of Atlantic City, who has been covering South Jersey football for a long time, the spread is the most popular offense down there. Almost everyone other than maybe the smaller schools runs some type of variation on it, so it’s definitely an offense that has taken hold in other parts of the state.

I asked a few opposing coaches why more teams in the Shore Conference aren’t doing it, as many are employing offenses like the run-based flexbone, which has been run for eons but has proved successful to many teams in this area, like Middletown South and Freehold.

One reason is that Howell is a Group IV school whose participation numbers are booming. It’s a little easier to find a quarterback and four or five capable wideouts among 100 players than among 40 or even 25-30 at some of the really small Group I programs. The offense revolves around the quarterback, and Howell has had three good ones in a row in Sean O’Reilly, Tim Lamirande and now Ryan. Some of the smaller schools might simply not have a quarterback of that caliber to really make the offense work. If the QB is mediocre, the offense is mediocre.

I think another reason Howell has been successful is because head coach Cory Davies has really remained committed to the offense and committed to refining it. He has borrowed from what Mike Leach has done down at Texas Tech and their explosive offense as well as other top college programs and continues to study it. He didn’t just install it for that one stretch, win a state title and then scrap it when he had all new personnel last year. It wasn’t just a gimmick to him. He stayed with it, the new players continued to absorb the system, and now the Rebels are a threat once again after winning the Central Jersey Group IV title in 2007.

Davies knows it inside and out, which is another reason why it works. I think a reason teams may not be adopting it is because coaches may not want to take the time to really learn the offense inside and out if they are going to change what they are doing. You can’t just go to one clinic or buy an Urban Meyer video and think that it’s going to work to perfection. I wouldn’t call it laziness, but I think there’s some fear and hesitation from coaches about installing it because of the time commitment it takes to really learn it completely.

Another reason, of course, is weather. If you look at all these high-octane offenses among the nationally-ranked powers in Texas, California, Florida and elsewhere, they all run the spread. The weather can get a little more iffy up here, so some coaches might be hesitant to have an offense based around the passing game if there’s a downpour or snowstorm. However, I’ve seen Howell run it in difficult conditions and still move the chains because a lot of the throws are short or intermediate routes.

Still, I am surprised that more teams that are struggling have not tried this offense. If you’re going 3-7 anyway, you might as well try it. After all, that offense is fun, and could lead to more kids coming out for the team. You can’t tell me that younger kids don’t see Jimmy Ryan slinging it to all those Howell receivers running all over the field and running back Will Hayes causing trouble all over the place and not think they it looks awfully fun, like backyard football in a real game. Plus, it’s been proven that it can be successful. Just ask the West Windsor South team that the Rebels beat 46-13 in the CJ IV final in ’07.

Just a thought on my part. If anyone else has an opinion on it, feel free to comment on the blog, and maybe we’ll discuss it in the next live chat, which will be Wednesday (tomorrow) at 7 p.m.

Plenty of college coaches are using various forms of this offense and are creating their own wrinkle.  The big names, Mike Leach at Texas Tech, Gary Pinkel at Missouri, and Rich Rodriguez at Michigan all use the offense in different ways to drive their National Prominence agendas.  Urban Myer at Florida has had the most success.  He won at Utah with it, going undefeated in 2004.  He then moved the show to Florida and the powerful Southeastern Conference having  since captured two National Championships in three years.  Although Myer is not the master mind of the spread or the most creative, it is undeniable that his teams have won the most hardware using the offense.  Throw in Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns’ National Championship in 2005 and three out of the last four National Championship teams have used the spread offense.  However, the offense has a hidden downside.

With many college teams having great success using the spread offense you might think it will soon become a staple on Sundays.  Right?  I don’t think so.  Here’s why.  The spread has a lot of similarities to the wishbone, not in scheme, but in the fact that both are very successful high school and college offenses.  However, in the final analysis, neither offense can truly indicate how player’s abilities will translate in the NFL.

Not convinced yet? Well, let’s look at some history.  Last season’s senior class of highly touted QBs that ran the spread last year (Graham Harrell, Chase Daniel, Pat White, Brian Johnson, and Chase Holbrook) are either struggling to make an NFL practice squad or they’re projected to be a specialty player (think Wildcat).  Review prior years of QBs that played in the spread (Brian Brohm, Cody Hodges, Sonny Cumbie), and you will see the same results.  Who was the last college QB to run the spread offense and actually have any success in the NFL?  I would have to say Vince Young and he is struggling right now after being demoted to a back-up role.  Alex Smith, a former number one pick couldn’t even beat out Shaun Hill for the starting job in San Francisco!

And it’s not just the QBs of which scouts have to be leery.  Wide receivers run a total of three routes:  The quick slant, the go, and then the quick slant again.  Running backs mostly run the inside hand-off sweep and offensive linemen in this system rarely have to pass block for longer than two seconds.  Every position will require a pro scout to go that extra mile to make sure the player is not just a product of a great college system.

As evidenced many times in previous years, the spread has been an unassuming thorn in the side of many NFL scouts.  They can’t rely on highlight films or what an “insider” reported; a practice that is commonplace when evaluating talent coming from a pro-style offense. Instead, scouts are forced to evaluate a player’s upside (or potential) and determine if what they are doing in that system translates to the next level – not an easy task at all.  Decisions by these pro scouts can often mean the difference between a perennial playoff team for years into the future or a perpetual division basement dweller. 

Don’t be fooled by the huge statistical numbers and praise with which these players receive.  Look deeper.  The past few years tell us that their level of play is at its pinnacle and that their college performance, albeit remarkable, does not always mean success in the NFL.  So when December rolls around and the finalists sitting in the front row at the Downtown Athletic Club are products of the spread offense, just realize that it’s fool’s gold.  These are more than likely not the future stars of the NFL, rather just great college athletes giving off the heat from the hot offensive system of the day; history has already told us that.

For more articles from The Full Nelson team of writers, visit us at
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TCU Coach Gary Patterson gets top billing in the New York Times examination of how defenses have tried to cope with the proliferation of ever-changing spread offenses in college football. With the NCAA’s number one defense three times in nine years, including 2008, Patterson is cited as “one of the foremost defensive minds in college football,” a “sideline savant,” and a “defensive innovator” who has a “flair for improvisation” with such “unconventional formations” as his 4-2-5. His emphasis is on developing speedy, versatile athletes who can react and hit.

“It’s kind of like people cooking chili,” Patterson told the Times. “Everybody’s got their own recipe. Everybody loves chili, but some like it hot, some like it meaty, some like it with more tomato sauce. There’s a hundred thousand million ways to cook chili. You’ve just got to figure what their recipe is and what you’re going to do to play against it.”

See:

College Football Preview 2009
Success of Spread Forces Fundamental Changes on Defense
By PETE THAMEL and THAYER EVANS
The New York Times, August 30, 2009

Does college success guarantee pro success? It most certainly does not. There are many examples to back this up. Quarterback’s Charlie Ward, Danny Wuerffel, Colt Brennan, and any Texas Tech quarterback (sorry Mike Leach, don’t get mad at me) are examples that immediately come to mind. There have been guys who have been successful on a smaller level in college but have starred in the NFL. Brett Favre and Jerry Rice come to mind, as they starred at Southern Miss and Mississippi Valley State, respectively. There have even been guys like former Georgia running back Terrell Davis who did very little in college yet thrived in the NFL for a period of time. I am guessing very few non-UGA fans even remember him playing in Athens.

Bleacher Fan has asked what the best criteria are when evaluating college football players. It is easy to answer that question. You evaluate based on pro potential. The ultimate goal is to get to the next level in anything you do, and that is no different in football. When you are interviewing for a job straight out of college, you are not only presenting your resume but you are also presenting yourself. You are hired not only for your GPA but also by the way you conduct yourself in the interview. Chances are you are hired because the employer sees POTENTIAL in you. They are not going to hire you if they think you will not grow in the position.

It is hard to evaluate players like Brennan and former Red Raider QB Graham Harrell. Brennan passed for over 14,000 yards and 131 touchdowns in three years at Hawaii, but he fell to the sixth round in the 2008 draft mainly because scouts were concerned (and rightly so) that his stats were heavily inflated by a gimmicky pass happy offense that would not work in the NFL. Harrell had a similar problem. He threw for nearly 16,000 yards and 134 touchdowns in his career at Texas Tech. Yet, he also played in a gimmicky offense that lets the quarterback throw the ball 60 times a game. He was not drafted at all. He currently plays for Saskatchewan Roughriders in the CFL. Red Raider coach Mike Leach did not understand why Harrell was not drafted, and someone like Texas A&M quarterback Stephen McGee was, which set off a mini-controversy between Leach and Aggie coach Mike Sherman.

Florida quarterback Tim Tebow has taken a lot of criticism regarding his pro potential due to the fact that he plays in a very unique spread offense at Florida. Time will tell whether or not he can succeed in the NFL. The main difference between him and Brennan and Harrell is that Tebow possesses a physical nature to his game while the other two were somewhat finesse. Contrarily, you have someone like quarterback Mark Sanchez, who played in a pro-style offense at USC and who played under a coach with NFL experience in Pete Carroll.

If the ultimate goal is to see who can put up the best numbers on the field and on Playstation 3, then yes, you evaluate by the stats and what kind of numbers he has in college. If the ultimate goal is to make it to the NFL, then you look at the entire repertoire and decide if the guy is ready for the NFL. That determines true success.

“yeeeeaaaahhhh footbaawwl talk… TEBOW IS MAH GAWD”

With the renaissance of the spread offense, there have been a dizzying number of variations put on the scheme by some of the brightest minds in college football. Lately I’ve been reading about some of the spread offenses that populate the collegiate football landscape and it’s helped to take my mind off the 2+ months I have to wait for the start of the season. Even for those of you who aren’t 100% comfortable with the X’s and O’s of college football, it’s relatively easy to pick up. For you college football-crazy S&H readers here’s some of the Summer reading:

• “Georgia/Georgia Tech and don’t call Paul Johnson’s offense the Wishbone”- The best Navy football blogger out there (The Birddog) does a good job of contrasting the “spread” run by Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson and the traditional Wishbone offense (think Nebraska and Oklahoma in the 1970s and 80s).  He uses film from the ’08 Georgia/Georgia Tech game to demonstrate how Johnson’s offense can make even a talented defense look foolish at time. There are also clips from past years of the Navy offense when Johnson was running the show there. It’s an excellent read for those curious about how the Navy and now Georgia Tech offenses have been so dominant.
• “Gus Malzahn Works On the Auburn Running Game”- Lost the ridiculous passing totals in the last two seasons of Tulsa offense under current Auburn OC Guz Malzahn, was the fact that Tulsa finished top 10 statistically in rushing offense both of those years. The Smart Football Blog does an excellent and thorough job of evaluating the creative ways Malzahn ran the ball during the Tigers’ spring game and compares it with old Tulsa film. There are also some parallels drawn to the way Urban Meyer has gotten his offensive playmakers the ball at Florida (especially Percy Harvin) in his version of the spread. Overall it’s an interesting read about one of the most creative minds in college football. I expect this spread offense will look better than Tony Franklin‘s abortive attempt to bring the spread to Auburn during the first half of the ’08 season. (Bonus Reading: Malzahn has his own book called The Hurry Up, No-Huddle: An Offensive Philosophy which you can get via Amazon).
• “The Texas Tech Run Game: Simple, yet potentially deadly”- I’m going back to The Smart Football Blog for a look at how Mike Leach has incorporated the running game  into his “Airraid” offense that has been more widely know for its gaudy passing numbers. But with the emergence of talented young backs like Baron Batch and Aaron Crawford, expect Leach to continue going to the running game in the coming seasons. The video of the Texas Tech Spring Game has been removed from this entry, but the X’s and O’s explanation is still pretty good. Due to the similarity of schemes, I would also think University of Houston fans would be interested in this one too.
• “The Florida Gator/Urban Meyer Offense”- Admittedly this isn’t a really recent article (dated December 2008), but it’s the best article I’ve read up to this point on how Urban Meyer runs the spread offense with Tim Tebow and current Minnesota Viking Percy Harvin. It’s really interesting that Meyer can have so much success with simple concepts like the counter, option and trap… it certainly doesn’t hurt to have an athletic freak like Tebow lined up in the shotgun. Oh and this one also comes to us via the amazingness of The Smart Football Blog.

Well, hopefully that’s enough football goodness to keep you happy for the next 60-something days.