(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

The US Dollar continues to trade at major lows against major forex counterparts, and there is admittedly little scope for an immediate turnaround. Yet we wrote in our

Forex Options Weekly

forecast that options and futures sentiment remains extremely bearish the US Dollar—suggesting a major or bottom is near. As with EVErything in trading, timing is absolutely critical and extremely difficult to determine. Yet we suspect that the weeks ahead could produce significant price moves across all US Dollar pairs.

Forex Trading Automated Systems Outlook

DailyFX+ System Trading signals

Momentum2 was by far our best performer through the past week of price action, as the relatively fast-shifting strategy latched on to nascent Trends across key currency pairs. Momentum1 actually lost on aggregate as it was much slower to adapt to quick and noteworthy shifts in sentiment. As it stands, we believe Momentum2 remains attractive. And the similarly fast-shifting Breakout2 strategy shows promise on the jump in Forex Options Volatility expectations. Range2 has ironically begun trading at arguably the worst time for Range trading systems. We have shifted our bias towards momentum and Breakout systems, and Range2 looks comparatively less attractive in the week ahead.

Definitions

Volatility Percentile

– The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied Volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain VERy high or VERy low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend

– This indicator measures Trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90  trading-day range. A VERy low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.

Range High

–  90-day closing high.

Range Low

–  90-day closing low.

Last

– Current market price.

Strategy

– Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for

DailyFX.com

Source: DailyFX – Forex Strategy Outlook: Currencies Remain Primed for Sharp Moves

I was so blown away today bringing closure to a challenging year with the small team I’ve worked with closely throughout the year at the School of Social Entrepreneurs Sydney. 

The success of it was the plunge we took right from the beginning of the year – jumping right in and putting ourselves on the line by being vulnerable was trust building right from the start.  Individual voluntary commitment to be present with presence in every session, actively listening and participating was also consistent throughout the year.  That takes courage, commitment, honesty, integrity, love, thoughtful process – a fine example of what you give out you receive.  Also, difficult to do with strangers however we come from such diversity in age, race, culture, knowledge, experiences that I’ve grown with them and respect them and today was awesome!  Reflecting from a Mountain View position, we made it!  

I realised today how this small group has had a major impact in changing my life for the good and I was so pleased to share that with them, I will never forget it.    Today was so positive and a real celebration of how far we have come together, although not in denial of the buttons that were pushed it all seems totally irrelevant now because the learning and personal growth gained far outweighs the pain to get there.  

In fact, I welcome it now and even today the challenge that came shifted my thinking completely and it only took one question!  Keeping in mind that question posed was with wisdom and thoughtful process before it was delivered. 

 Finishing 2009 strong…

The power of breakthrough for a butterfly is in the blood.  Pumping blood to the wings gives it the strength to breakthrough that tight confining space of mans opinions, dishonor, labels, expectations, assumptions, judgements and vision for your life, for your projects, for your family and overall well-being.

I feel drained having worked so closely with a large group of my peers at The School of Social Entrepreneurs 1 day per week 2009.  There have been alot of people involved in that process – pushing, pulling and drawing from you and now I want to be left alone for a time.  I am grateful for my Action Learning Set.

Still wet, upside down and resting in a time of it’s greatest vulnerability to predators…….the Butterfly must allow time for it’s wings to dry out (the residue from that School space), for pumping blood throughout it’s Spirit, Soul and Body in particular it’s newfound Wings……the strength is in the blood, it’s capacity to fly is in the wings so this time is so important right now……my Action Learning Set decided to get-together a long time ago, no accident but an incredible natural pathway of the tribe of the Butterfly. 

This is a time to rest as much as the workhorse in me wants to get stuck into it, be challenged, overcome issues, work hard and then some – it is simply not the time!  Now is the time for resting while all the real work is going on inside, some who are sensitive may hear the blood pumping through you otherwise the strength and power of this time is intangible: like the wind – you can’t see it but you can feel it and you know it’s there……beautiful transformation, positive change for the good.

I have consolidated my learning this year and began new learning outside of SSE that I’m so passionate about regarding my people and our land.  Likewise, SSE has given me so much learning that I can take with me on my journey and it will help give wings to the vision of others I am sure.

My goal is to fulfill my birthrights, my life purpose and what I’m born to do and having said that – I don’t want to copy or imitate anyone else therefore with fierce intentionality discovering my skill-set and gift mix, overcoming issues with growing awareness, not living in denial about my weaknesses, celebrating my strengths what God has given me, I am moving forward one step at a time. 

This is a time where you could easily be swayed off track, picked off one by one by isolation or people wanting to help you…..because they can see you are a butterfly now and not just a worm, that you actually have wings and not just a very hungry caterpillar fattening yourself up – people will want to help dry you out, help with streeeetchiiinng your wings and my advice would be tell them to bugger off lol it may look good but ask yourself what is it you need right now, what time is it, where are you at in the process, where were they before when you were just an egg or a fat worm lol, what are they offering and why, how does this align with your personal vision, goals, morals, values and if it doesn’t line up don’t go ahead – the hard work is over, this is a vulnerable time where all the positions, promo’s, opportunities, honor etc you will be offered may look helpful but you must take that vulnerable time to sit, rest and allow the blood to pump through your spirit, soul and body by actually creating opportunities and a nurturing space for that to happen – with Christmas coming this is a perfect season for doing that.

I ask myself what nurturing space does my spirit need this season? does my soul need this season? does my body need this season?  and I also wonder what is it a butterfly is thinking and feeling while it’s hanging upside down waiting for it’s newfound wings to dry out.

This month is the time of strategy paying greater attention to your dreams writing them down and receiving insights as to how you can move forward.  This is download time so get in the position to receive strategy this month and hold on, not rushing into anything and not making any concrete decisions until next month, in the new year.

Ice Age is so fuuny, I am enjoying it.

Stockholm School of Economics is great. Marketing and Finance as well as Accounting are the key majors here. It is so interesting to listen to the distinguished professors giving speeches about markeing theories at the same time when crashing cases.

Team work is absolutely important during the studies in SSE. Luckily, I have got a multinational team, with John, native of Sweden, Yashar from Iran, Simone from Italy, Sarmad from Parkistan, Xin and me from Mainland, China. I love all of my teammembers, you guys show great enthusiasm in studying and team co-working. Thanks. I love you all.

Giving in to what organisations want instead of sticking to what you know is right….or being too flexible so stakeholders take you for a ride……you are selling your birthright for power, prestige and connections.

Would you lose all morals for that……and it doesn’t have to be big, it can be as small as agreeing to something that you internally know you don’t like.

Don’t do it!  Stick to your guns…will it mean shooting yourself in the foot? sometimes but if you do things from a place of truth that is more important and it sets standards for those around you as well.

In the beginning of SSE when I knew I got in I shared what was happening with an American Indian/ Maori Seer that is a good friend of mine and she had simply shared how people will be in it for more than what you think etc

Sitting in a more realistic position now at the end of the year and reflecting on the amount of time I have put into this school, the people involved including stakeholders connected to the School and what they’ve asked from me is quite a sobering reflection. 

I have set up a social enterprise before and I haven’t set up this organisation yet and all year I’ve been disseminating information gained and entertaining relationships with everyone who pulls at you and your project and now I just want to withdrawal from all of it feeling distracted and so I can concentrate.  I’m disappointed with how little resources have been given to support our projects such as a Social Enterprise Business Plan – a basic tool I would have thought.

I can see clearly how SSE comes under SVA and how they organise everything including the Business Angels.  They’ve been writing an article about my relationship with the Angels throughout the year to encourage more Angels to work with students which is fantastic.  However, all the information I gave has been ‘edited’ which means changed to suit and some of it no longer true…… I’ve been asked to look over it but they want it signed off by lunchtime today.  incredible…..so I’ve asked for my contribution to be withdrawn…..and SSE now wants to help me find common language to complete it, adding insult to injury as no apology or acknowledgement has come from SVA .  It shall be an interesting day.

To be quite frank I think social enterprises were done before SVA came along or SSE for that matter and if anyone wants you to think that you can’t do it without them and their input than they’re kidding themselves.

I also feel passionate about Social Entrepreneurs needing the space and isolation like a butterfly in a cocoon because all of the things they do on their own, all of the little breakthroughs stretch our muscle and pump our blood to our wings to make these projects fly – some of us need the struggle to make things happen and I know I don’t need someone helping me to break open the cocoon for me because that will do more damage than good, it can ruin the potential to fly.  i.e don’t let anyone else tell you what they think is best for you and your project because you will know deep within you what is right and you are the only one who knows all the details and no one else can see in your head.

I have heard a speaker with a very successful Social Enterprise that helps thousands of people annually – she talked about how she built this successful enterprise and then was introduced to some very savvy business women who became her board members and they guided her in a direction that was away from her purpose and the mission of her Social Enterprise……..so I want to point out that yes the corporate sector has alot to offer however they also need to respect our space, knowledge, expertise and inherent abilities to do our projects often with intuitive skillsets they know nothing about and could learn alot from us as well.

I have learnt a great deal this year and all of which I am very grateful for and I write these experiences knowing it could shoot myself in the foot regarding connections, networks, reputations but I’m not selling what I believe in to anybody for limited success, position, prestige, money or power and I want to speak the truth of my experience because if I’ve gone through it there will be others coming after me who will go through this too and they need to know wht they’re feeling is absolutely legitimate.

We would like to say a big thank you to Sun Startup Essentials for helping us ‘get connected’ at the Chain Reaction 2009.

Sun Startup Essentials are generously supplying us with laptops for use on the day – so that we can get the tweets, blogs, videos and audio online, and help connect people outside the event to the activity that is happening at the event.

This year we have an ambitious programme which will see us live stream some of the sessions to our website and upload video and vox pops to our YouTube channel throughout the day.  There will also be a team of bloggers on had to write up activity as it happens, plus we will have our young social reporter team capturing the event and making a film of the day.

Phew!  That’s a lot of activity, so we are very grateful for the extra support!

Read more about the Sun Startup Essentials Programme and the rest of our supporters here

Arrived safely here in Jos last evening. You know how when you go back to a place you look around for what has changed…nothing has. The congestion in the market areas along the road, the smells of exhaust and food cooking, little goats running around everywhere, and POTHOLES. Potholes that would literally take the entire bottom off your vehicle if you hit them. But to the local people they seem to create a kind of obstacle course and they see how fast they can navigate them without running into each other. But they don’t always miss! The day before, on his way to Abuja to pick me up, Ibro Itapson (Emmanuel’s  younger brother) drove by an accident that took the lives of 18 people.  Three bus/vans crowded with passengers crashed.  A reminder of the tenuous nature of life here in Nigeria.

Potholes are often used as a life metaphor. It’s apt here.  Some small holes you hardly notice, some huge that threaten life itself. Here the road is full of craters, it’s hard to miss all of them…I guess that’s why the average lifespan is in the 40’s.

But it’s great to be back!  The landscape is still green as dry season is just starting. In fact, we hit some hard rain on the drive, which is unusual by this time of year. 

I look forward to sharing more as the weeks go on.

Brian

Iberdrola ha conseguido una opción de compra para construir junto a sus socios GDF Suez y SSE una central nuclear en suelo inglés. Hace unos meses que saltó la polémica en España por el cierre de la planta nueclear de Garoña. El Gobierno se decantó por el cierre de la planta y un plan de colocación para los trabajoderes de esta.

Iberdrola no ha perdido el tiempo y se ha dedicado a tantear posibles terrenos para futuras centrales. Está apostando mucho por Reino Unido. Aparte de la central nuclear, Iberdrola, tiene más proyectos vinculados a las renobavles y el carbón limpio.

Sobre la adquisición, el Director de Desarrollo de IBERDROLA, Pedro Azagra, aseguró:

“Estamos encantados con la oportunidad de desarrollar el emplazamiento de Sellafielfd y hacer una importante contribución al programa nuclear del Gobierno británico. Iberdrola cuenta con una larga y acreditada experiencia en la operación y mantenimiento de centrales nucleares a lo largo del mundo y espera participar en este proceso junto a sus socios lo antes posible”.

Pese a todo lo discutido en los últimos meses respecto a las centrales nucleares, desde mi punto de vista no son tan malas. Crea energía a un coste bajo.

Más info | Nota de prensa

SSE (Super Simple ESP) v4.9 By <:PrOdIgY:> AKA Jimster480

VAC2 Proof As Of 10-27-09

Important            < Importante
Extension Changed Back to DLL. Many compatibilty problems fixed.

Report your bugs so they can be fixed.

How To Use            < Como usar
———–
Extract Archive To Anywhere But CS/Steam Folder
Run EXE
Click Load
Run Any HL1 Game (Some People Can Run EXE & Load While Ingame)

-português:
Extraia os arquivos em qualquer lugar, menos na pasta do steam
Rode o executável
Aperte em “load”
Rode o jogo
(pode tentar também rodar primeiramente o jogo e depois o hack)

Features      < Características
——–
X ESP
Box ESP
F12 (Toggle X ESP)
F11 (Toggle Box ESP)

Works In All Games On The HL1 Engine.

Workarounds            < Algumas ajudas caso de problema
———-
Try disabling steam communities In-game GUI
If you get a cl_dll error, open the game then once the start page has loaded, load SSW
If your game hangs when trying to join a server, start the game, join the server,
before you choose a team, load SSW
If your game crashes when trying to inject SSW, make sure its allowed in your AV

-português: Tente desabilitar o steam comuunities do “in-game” do CS
se vc receber um erro de cl_dll, abra primeiro o jogo e depois o SSE
se o seu jogo congelar/travar enquanto for entrar em um server, inicie o jogo e entre no servidor, antes de escolher um time abra o SSW
Se o seu jogo trava(da erro) quando está injetando o SSE, tenha certeza de permitir o SSE no seu Antivirus

Credits
——–
Panzer
Game-Deception
Prolifik-gaming
P47TR1K
B2K5
Xenome
Anyone Else I forgot You Know Who You Are

Enjoy!

Support IRC irc.0v1.org:6667 #cs1.6
Support at www.jimster480forums.tk

DOWNLOAD – Megaupload

DOWNLOAD – Rapidshare

SCAN

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) –

Kathy Lien

Director of Currency Research, GFT

pips

%

AUD/USD

+155

+1.75

AUD/JPY

+124

+1.56

EUR/AUD

-169

-1.02

EXPECTATIONS FOR UPCOMING FED MEETINGS

CURRENT US INTEREST RATE: 0.25%

Rates to Remain Unchanged Throu …

Kathy Lien

Director of Currency Research, GFT

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EXPECTATIONS FOR UPCOMING FED MEETINGS

CURRENT US INTEREST RATE: 0.25%					Rates to Remain Unchanged Throughout 2009
	11/4 Meeting	12/16 Meeting
NO CHANGE	39.9%	46.2%
Cut to 0.00%	51.2%	44.4%
Increase to 0.50%	8.9%	6.7%
Increase to 0.75%	0.0%	0.0%

U.S. DOLLAR: WHERE DOES FED FIT IN PART 2

The U.S. DOLlar traded lower against all of the major currencies with the sharpest losses seen against the Australian DOLlar, which surged on the heels of the strongest job growth in 2 years. Earlier this week, we penned an article titled “

Where Does the Fed Fit In

? ” and we truly believe that the recent price action in the Currency market reflects the answer to that question. Three central banks made Monetary Policy announcements this week with 3 very different outcomes. The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates, the European Central Bank grew a bit more optimistic while the Bank of England left the door open for further easing. There is a good chance that all 3 of these central banks could make changes to their Monetary Policy before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve on the HANd will most likely leave their Quantitative Easing program Unchanged. They have not been in a rush to remove their unconventional measures, especially following last week’s disappointing non-farm payrolls Report. This dynamic reinforces our belief that the dollar could continue to fall.

Where Does the Fed Fit In Part 2

The answer to the question of “Where Does the Fed Fit In” will also be the primary driver of the Currency market over the next few months. If other central banks start to follow in the footsteps of the rba (like New Zealand), we could see more currencies hit new highs against the U.S. dollar. There is a good chance that the rba could also raise interest rates again before the end of the year. Even though the ECB is not expected to hike their main interest rate, they could add a spread to the December one year tender which would still be perceived as a hawkish move. The BoE is more dovish than the Fed but the pound could simply benefit from broad based dollar weakness. The following chart which is created based upon the price of options on interest rate Futures, shows how close the market believes each of the major central banks are to raising interest rates and could signal the dollar’s future performance against other currencies.

Earnings season has also begun and we expect a lot of positive surprises. Alcoa, PepsiCo and Marriott all Reported stronger results. If equities continue to rally, the


EUR/USD





should as well. The following chart illustrates the correlation between the


EUR/USD





and the S&P 500.

Source: Bloomberg

Economic Data Preview and Review

Aside from the better than expected Earnings Reports, the risk appetite in the market has also improved because of stronger economic data. Jobless and continuing claims have fallen while chain store sales increased 0.1 percent. In other words, the latest reports indicate that the labor market is improving and consumer spending is holding steady. The market currently expects a very sharp 2.0 percent drop in retail sales but many of the leading indicators for consumer spending including the ICSC and SpendingPulse index along with results from individual retailers suggests otherwise. The trade balance is due for release tomorrow and the weak dollar combined with the rise in the export component of manufacturing ISM indicates a recovery in trade.

EUR/USD:





TAKEAWAY POINTS FROM ECB

Even though the Euro ended the U.S. session higher against the dollar, there was quite a bit of intraday volatility on the heels of ECB President Trichet’s post Monetary Policy meeting press conference. In general, Trichet’s tone was relatively upbeat which suggests that the central bank may be much closer to implementing an exit strategy than the Federal Reserve. There are signs of stabilization in the Eurozone economy and the recovery in exports should fuel growth going forward. As we expected, the second question asked by reporters was the ECB’s stance on the currency. Trichet repeated his previous comments that excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are adverse for the global economy and with that in mind, the U.S.’ strong dollar policy is extremely important in present circumstances. Although no new comments were made, it was still enough to turn the


EUR/USD





around. Also, Traders were disappointed by the fact that the ECB failed to add a spread to the one year tender in December, but with another meeting between now and then, the central bank can afford to wait. There is no urgency within the ECB to step up their degree of verbal intervention or to implement an exit strategy. In the words of Trichet “If we have anything to say on intervention, we will.” He also said that monetary stimulus is providing strong support for the economy and unconventional measures will be unwound in a timely fashion when the economy improves. Overall, Trichet’s comments should be more positive than negative for the Euro. Unlike the Fed, speculation that the ECB could add a spread to the one year tender in December puts the central bank closer to tightening monetary policy which is what Traders should remember when they are considering the outlook for the EUR/USD. Meanwhile German industrial production rose slightly less than expected in August. The German trade and current Account balance along with the final consumer price report for the month of September are due for release tomorrow.

GBP/USD:





BOE ON HOLD TO NOVEMBER

The British pound rallied against the U.S. dollar and Euro after the Bank of England left the size of their asset purchase program and interest rates Unchanged. The monetary policy statement was short and sweet with the central bank saying that they voted to continue with their current GBP 175 billion program of asset purchases which they expect to take another month to complete. “The scale of the program will be kept under review.” The BoE has not closed the door on further asset purchases but the market will have to wait for the minutes to see how close they are to increasing stimulus. Next month’s monetary policy announcement will be a particularly important because it comes a week before the Quarterly Inflation Report. As they prepare the report, the central bank will be thinking about the impact that the weakness in the pound and higher commodity prices will have on the economy. If economic data continues to deteriorate, the BoE may be forced to cut interest rates or ask the Chancellor for more funds. Both former Deputy Governor John Gieve and former Monetary Policy Committee member Blanchflower believe that the BoE needs to do more. The U.K. economy is clearly not out of woods and even though the BoE left monetary policy unchanged today, they have not necessarily ended their easing cycle. The central bank is still one of the most dovish on the street and for the time being, they are on hold until November. Producer prices and trade data are due for release tomorrow. On a trade weighted basis, the British pound has fallen more than 7 percent since the beginning of August which could help reduce the trade deficit. However the contribution is likely to be small since manufacturing PMI contracted.

USD/CAD:





EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ON TAP

There are a lot of economic reports due for release tomorrow but none of them are more important than Canada’s employment report. In the month of August, Canada experienced its first job gain in four months. The market expects job losses to return in September but given the sharp rise in the employment component of IVEY PMI, we believe that not only could job losses be minimal but there is a good chance that Canada experienced positive job growth for the second month in a row. A strong labor market report should add to the upside momentum in the Canadian dollar and send it a fresh 12 month high against the greenback. Although housing starts fell in September, the August data was revised sharply higher. Meanwhile the Australian and New Zealand dollars raced to fresh 14 month highs on the heels of the incredibly hot Australian employment report. A total of 40.6k Australians found new jobs last month, dropping the unemployment rate for the first time in 5 months to 5.7 from 5.8 percent. Given the rise in the employment components of the service, manufacturing and construction sector PMI reports, we were a bit surprised that economists actually expected job. In our daily report yesterday, we said there is a good chance that Australia experienced job growth but no one anticipated the strongest job growth since November 2007. The best part of the report is that most of growth occurred in full time work. The improvement in the labor market validates the Reserve Bank’s decision to hike interest rates earlier this week and confirms our belief that interest rates could be lifted again before the end of the year. The construction sector has been booming partially due to government stimulus and partially due to the recovery in the housing market. We have been looking for the


AUD/USD





to break 90 cents for a very long time and now expect the currency pair to rise as high as 93 cents over the next few months.

USD/JPY:





3 MONTH LIBOR SPREAD SIGNALS MORE LOSSES

USD/JPY





is having a very tough time participating in the rally experienced by the other yen crosses. This of course is a reflection of the overall weakness in the U.S. dollar. The 3 month LIBOR spread between the U.S. and J.P.n continues to grow in the favor of the Yen which signals further losses in the currency pair. Unless the


USD/JPY





manages to rise back above 90, the path of least resistance is still lower with support in the currency pair at the one year low of 87.14. If the yen is only rising against the U.S. dollar, J.P.nese officials may not feel as compelled to intervene in the currency. Given the flip flopping comments by Finance Minister Fujii, we do not believe that the new Finance Minister is a strong advocate of intervention. He is certainly under pressure from J.P.nese corporations, but a break of 85 may be needed before they will step in. Meanwhile, economic data supports the recovery story in Japan. The current surplus increased more than expected in the month of August along with the Eco Watchers Survey. Bankruptcies also plunged by 18 percent while machine tool orders fell at a slower pace. The trade balance narrowed but not by as much as the market had anticipated. As long as the dollar remains the driver of the currency market, the performance of


USD/JPY





could continue to diverge from the other yen crosses.

USD/CAD:





Currency in Play for Next 24 Hours

USD/CAD





will be the currency pair in Play for the next 24 hours. Canada will be releasing their employment report at 7:00am ET or 11:00 GMT and the U.S. will release its trade balance report at 8:30am ET or 12:30 GMT.


USD/CAD





is currently trading in the Sell Zone, which we establish using Bollinger Bands. The 1.0310 a low reached in September of last is the closest level of support. Nonetheless there may be some buying at 1.05. However below that level, there is no major support until parity. However if


USD/CAD





gains strength and comes out of the Sell zone by breaking above 1.07, the rally could extend as far as 1.0840.

Comments (1)

Biowolf

October 08, 2009 at 10:24 PM ET

SPAin intrducing emrgency tax, Latvia reneging IMF loans. Euro bullish ?

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Kathy Lien began her FX trading career 10 years ago at J.P. Morgan Chase. After graduating New York University’s Leonard Stern School of Business at the age of 18, Kathy joined the bank’s interbank FX trading desk and eventually moved to the cross markets proprietary trading desk. In the interbank market, her ability to create solid fundamental and technical analysis from the myriad of information on the market helped her trade forex spot and options. Her experience eventually led her to be chief strategist at Daily FX where she worked until she joined GFT in 2008.

With her knowledge of forex, as well as her experience trading other products, such as interest rate derivates, bonds, equities, and Futures, Lien has built a reputation as an international currency analyst. She is frequently quoted on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business and Reuters. Lien has also written for publications like Active Trader, Futures, and SFO magazine. She is the author of the newly updated

Day Trading the currency market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves

, and the co-author of

Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game

with Boris Schlossberg.

To buy Kathy’s newly updated

Day Trading and Swing Trading the currency market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves

,

click here

.

Source: U.S. Dollar: Where Does FED Fit In Part 2

On the 18th of September 2009 the big six energy companies confirmed to Ofgem that they would likely increase fuel bills next year. This was subject to considerable comment from organisations such as Consumer Focus. 

Yesterday Ofgem released a press release about work done with Consumer Focus to propose further protection for vulenerable customers. The full report makes for interesting reading.

However, it now needs to be read in the context of todays press release and report about Ofgems comprehensive review of Britains’ energy supplies. This makes for grim reading suggesting, at best, a minimum fourteen percent rise in fuel bills. Again, the full report makes for stark reading for anyone interested in fuel poverty.

Excellent news for Glasgow yesterday that Scottish and Southern Energy had agreed to join with The University of Strathclyde (renowned for wind power research) in Glasgow to create a new Centre of Engineering Excellence for Renewable Energy (CEERE). The new facility will primarily become a new a new research and management centre for wind farm projects.

SSE Manging Director Ian Marchant:

“Our Centre of Excellence which will be known as CEERE will play a crucial part in helping SSE to realise its renewable energy goals in the UK, Ireland and elsewhere in Europe, helping to secure energy supplies and contributing to the development of a lower carbon economy.

“Having considered all of the options in mainland Europe, Ireland and the UK, we have settled on Glasgow as the best location for CEERE, and the city’s own sustainable energy ambitions also make it a very appropriate choice.

“Working with the University of Strathclyde, and with the support of the Scottish Government, we will create and secure several hundred skilled jobs for Scotland.

“Scotland’s ambition to become a leader in renewable energy is well known and we are delighted to be making this investment in Scotland. We’re very positive about the prospects for creating new jobs to harness Europe’s renewable energy resources and the potential make a significant contribution to the achievement of Scotland’s ambitions.”

Strathclyde University Principal (and Professor) Jim McDonald said:

“If we are to address the challenges of climate change, rapid and widespread deployment of renewable energy technologies is critical.

“The new partnership reflects Scotland’s potential to be at the forefront of the UK and European renewable energy sectors, creating new jobs and research and development opportunities.”

The Scottish Government is investing £2.8m into the scheme, First Minister Alex Salmond spoke on the new energy centre yesterday.

Good news for Glasgow and Scotland – this is a considerable commitment to the green economy and hopefully another step on the way for Scotland to become a true renewable energy hub.

I would encourage you to start where you are at with what you’ve got and do what you can! Sparked Jan 2009 by trying to help someone else with their vision is when I found mine!

My Audacious Vision is ‘The ***** Foundation’(name to be announced later), an organisation committed to the value and importance of change and innovation….giving wings to the vision of women. 

Created to distribute funds, to the following:

Lead research in the root factors of reoffending for young women

Grants to support the creation of sustainable projects of women post release that benefit themselves and their communities & access to Scholarships for further education and training to achieve their goals.

Project *****, a series of pre & post release workshops that address the root factors of reoffending for young women to support them with a smooth transition into the wider community.

By meeting these objectives we position ourselves to assist and inspire community groups to create relevant and effective post release programs for young women with the aim to stop reoffending and recidivism rates.   

By attending the School of Social Entrepreneurs this year in Sydney I have been able to surround myself with Visionaries and ppl who believe in what I’m doing which is priceless when you are in the practise of dreaming big…..it has also been the incubator for my vision by watering it with inspirational speakers that I can ask loads of questions and ppl I can turn to and ask for help in any area…..If they don’t know then they will find someone and I always get good advice.

I want to encourage you today if you’re feeling like you want to live your life with purpose but don’t yet have a vision…..you can start where you’re at today by choosing to help someone who does have a dream or vision; help them with what you’ve got(what you know you can do…) to pursue their dreams and visions.

It will be the key that sets you on the path to discovering your own destiny and live your life with purpose and passion!

Indicators – Gold output rose 13.4% yoy YTD. New bank branch apps rejected by CBRC because of low CAR. Inflation expected to begin to rise in Oct or Nov (Nomura), 2.5% in 2010, 3.5% in 2011. New loans in July totaled 356B yuan, down 77% from June. Might be a loan surge in Sept. The Big 4 represent half of outstanding loans, yet their new loans issuance shrank significantly in July. The only new loans seem to be consumer loans which made up 66% of new July credit. Personal loans may reflect returning RE purchases, though higher prop prices will hurt individual credit. Many Chinese banks may face a lack of liquidity as reserves decline and loan-deposit ratios rise. Avg cap reserves may fall below 11% for comm banks. Small banks have a 10% CAR requirement, and are trying to issue rts or subordinateds to supplement capital. Deposits in H1 seems to have come from loan proceeds; but increasing cash flow into the real economy, a reduction in new loans, and cap market adjustments means that sustained deposit growth is uncertain. CB fin through short-term notes and bonds may help liquidity. Syndication is on the rise as multiple weak banks join forces to issue  more loans. If the global ecnomy improves, these smaller banks credit may improve. CCB has lent 7.3T yuan in new loans for H1, while showing more caution earlier in increasing its loan-loss provision to 150%. Earnings are down though and the markets fear NPLs are in the future, despite hopes for a stable lending base. The increased lending served to decrease NPL ratios, along with settling old NPLs. CCB seems to have both decreased NPLs while recovering twice the decreased amt. China Merchant and CITIC have been hit hard by decreasing NIMs and an inability to cover the loss by increasing loans. NIMs will not recover in H2 as it is unlikely that a stable increase in int rev from borrowers is possible. May be worsened by potential IR increases to control inflation. Stock market may influence lending as greater equity inv will hurt deposit growth. Rising loan-loss provisions by regulators will also hurt short-term profits. Coal prices to remain flat this month. Car sales rose 29% YTD, and will hit 10M units sold by Oct. Tax cuts on cars with 1.6L engine and subsidies for rual buyers of small vehicles and motorcycles have juiced sales. Vehicle exports have plunged 50-59% this year. Outward inv rose 111% to a record $56B in 2008. Fin inv surged 741% to $14B, nonfin $41.9B. Most inv was by the SOEs (85%). Mostly in services, fin, mining, and transportation. Economists believe recovery accelerated in Aug with faster indus output growth and retail sales, and strong growth in inv, though inflation concerns are emerging. CPI is expected to have fallen in Aug. Oil products sales up in Aug by 3.2% yoy. Steel traders call for lower prices from steel mills. Q4 will be difficult part of yr for domestic mills as weak demand can’t absorb growing output and inventories. UBS predicts 8.5% growth in 2010. Exports should improve and fiscal policy will not be tightened. GDP will grow 9% in Q3, 10% in Q4. Apartment sales fell 10% in Beijing for Sept, mom. High prices are hurting demand. October sales will be a barometer for the market as inventory enters the market. Qinhuangdao coal price rises ahead of National Day. Thermal power plants increased inventories in preparation for power demand.

Strategic Oil Reserve – NDRC says the 3rd phase will hold 169M brls. Reserve will be finished in 2020. Facilities will be built in Hainan, Hebei, and Chonqing municipality. 1st phase is finished and hold 102M brls. 2nd phase construction begins next year and will take 4yrs to complete. In Gansu, Jiangsu, and Guangdong.

Derivatives – SASAC is responsible for overseeing derivatives trading, but its supervision is limited to govt SOEs conducting trades in oil-related structured options. SOEs generally lack credit lines on the international market and need Chinese comm bank help before signing contracts w foreign inv banks. COSCO lost Bs in yuan; most SOEs in I-E and forex also probably lost money in derivatives. China Railway, Eastern Air, Air China have also disclosed losses. Deficiencies in SOE corp gov and risk control complicates investigations. No public market price. OTC trading of interests has also occurred in secret. Only 31 licenses issued by CSRC for overseas commodity hedging.

Trade – Anti-dumping duties on styrene butadiene rubber from Russia, Japan, SK for 5 more yrs. 38% tax. Tengzhong’s bid for Hummer blocked by MinComm due to lack of detail. MinComm plans to develop service outsourcing and improve China’s inv environ via greater foreign investor participation in clean energy and power-saving tech. MinComm vows to support tire industry against US tariffs via improving industry structure and raising technological standards. Tire Q4 earnings are expected to plummet due to the tariffs, increased domestic supplies cutting prices, and stockpiling.

Yuan – 6B yuan treasuries will include a retail tranche of 2B yuan; 2yrs for individual investors, 5yrs for institutions.

SSE – Red chips wil be the first to list on SSE’s international board. Red chips are incorporated outside the mainland and listed in HK. Investors have been buoyed by govt proactive fiscal policy and moderately losse monetary policy.

SFE – Shanghai Futures Exchange. Widens trading band prior to Oct 1 to 7%, by 2pp.

Shenzhen SE – Completes test of GEM board for IPOs, stock trading, and settlements.

HKSE – 19 IPOs planned to raise HK$117B by yearend. Traders worry about a capital drain from other stocks.

GEM – Chongqing Lummy Pharma plans to issue 23M A-shares on the new exchange, to be used for 8 production lines. CSRC approves 6 more candidates including Beijing Toread.

QDII – No new products for 2009, though 2010 should see some entries. GEM is the current focus.

National People’s Congress – Wu Xiaoling (deputy dir of Fin and Econ Affairs Committee) wants to keep controls on lending and deposit rates.

MinFin – Issues 200B yuan local govt bonds as part of an effort to channel funds to less-developed regions, market did not eagerly take them.

SAFE – Raises quota for QFII program from $800M to $1B.

NDRC – SMEs will be encouraged to pursue foreign inv opportunities and set up trading entities and research opportunities overseas. Will also support small private VC firm via tax breaks and will encourage them to invest in SMEs (less than 2K employees, rev <300M yuan, A < 400M yuan). Refuses to interfere in power-coal negotiations. Players want electricity price reform. Proposal to institute market trading for coal and railway transport capacity, separate grid and transport by setting up distribution and transport businesses for the power grid and rail network separate from firms that market power, coal, and transport, standardize I by setting fees collected by local govts, transport links, and power distributors, while instituting a resources tax, system oversight by eliminating gradually planning targets and pricing approvals. Industry leaders want to raise prices. Coal trading is still separated into 2 markets; Key Order Contract Transactions (for coal), the other exchanges. KOCT accts for 60% of coal burned for electricity through fixed contracts signed at coal order conferences, which usually end in NDRC intervention. At the 2009 conference, the power firms proposed a decrease in coal prices, while coal firms demanded an increase. Coal and power markets are affected by market fragmentation via KOCE. Logistics links btw coal and power firms are enormous, management is laissez-faire, efficiency low. Railways transport is split into planned and market portions. Non-core subsidiaries affiliated with coal and power firms profit from insider status. Arbitrary changes are added before supplies reach downstream, increasing already high costs. Prices for non-liberalized power are set by govt, while electricity is distributed by plans. Power trading is handled by monopoly grids, which increases trading costs and reduces fairness. Need a nationwide coal exchange market based on short-term and long-term contracts. Intermediaries make up 30-60% of costs; railroad is a major bottleneck. Rail also has its unplanned and planned portions. Next round of reform would allow govt to check and ratify a basic price for railway coal transport. Railway affiliates and intermediaries would be solidated into a coal transportation sales firm, and its transport capacity would be traded on the national coal exchange market. Grids in change of transmission would leave power trading and instead charge for use of a grid. Power generation scheduling currently follows a planned quota, while grids buy capacity from power firms and sell it to consumers; the grids enjoy monopoly in this system. March liberalizations have resulted in problems. Lacks indpendent electricity transmission and distribution pricing.

SASAC – Investigating loss-making fuel option deals made by SOEs, who may recover losses from their trading partners. Only 31 firms are licensed to conduct cross-border futures trading. 1T yuan worth of derivatives were entered into by SOEs.

CSRC – 12 firms have listed in Aug, most of them on Shenzhen. Reviews Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Holding’s plan to pay for parent assets with 7.3B yuan worth of new shares. Reviews 7 firms that wish to list on the GEM board. Funds and brokerages have submitted plans for pilot REIT programs. Harvest Fund, Bosera Funds, CITIC, CIC.

CIRC – Drafts rules requiring insurers to seek reg approval for transfer or alteration of a stake in another firm above 5%, as opposed to 10% previously. Also, drops reqs for adequate solvency when an insurer seeks to pursue an IPO or refi. Insurers will have an 8% asset limit on PE operations.

National Audit Office – Investigating recent lending by major comm banks in an effort to trace loans issued as part of the 2008 stimulus. Regulator investigation began after 23% of total H1 new lending was extended in discounted bills financing, a short-term lending practice that allows firms to raise cash by surrendering receivables at a discount; once bills are cashed, banks can no longer monitor capital flow, allowing for divestment opportunities.

IMF – PBoC may pay its $50B IMF notes in yuan, instead of using $s to diversify channels for its forex reserves.

CIC – Stepping up purchases of commodities firms by buying $1.9B of Bumi debt (Indonesia’s biggest coal producer) and $850M for a 15% stake in Noble Group, a HK global commodity supplier. 12% coupon.

Shanghai – August housing loans at record high due to increase luxury prop transactions.

Yunnan – Creates mining trading platform to facilitate trade in minerals, exploration, and exploitation rts.

PBoC – Will sell 6B yuan in sovereign bonds in HK, first sale in an offshore market to help develop the HK bond market. Expects lending by Chinese banks to return to reasonable levels in H2, major tightening unlikely due to stronger-than-expected banking data. Urges IMF to reform governing quotas and add votes for developing countries.

BoC – Swiss subsidiary will issue yuan-denominated Swiss funds as a way for chinese investors to invest globally w/o currency risk.

Eximbank – Central Huijin injects funding into Eximbank and China Export & Credit Ins in order to make them more market-oriented.

Shenzhen DB – Prefers current IR controls rather than floating. Funds with Invesco Great Wall managed fund a PE fund product in Sept with an entry of 1M yuan and max of 200 potential investors.

Bocomm – approved to buy China Life CMG ins, becoming the first bank to tap the ins sector. Will own 51%, the other 49% will be owned by Commonwealth Bank of Aussie. Bocomm now works in the man fund, fin leasing, trust, and ins sectors as well as its core banking, inv banking, and ins services in HK. Gives low-int loans to transport sector for infra porjects.

Industrial Bank – wins approval from PBoC to issue 10B yuan subordinateds.

Bohai Bank – Issues 1.2B yuan 10yr subordinateds at 5.3% for 5yr before being callable. Standard Chartered owns a 19.99% stake.

CDB – PBoC grants permission to increase new lending ceiling for 2009 by 130B yuan to 580B yuan.

CCB – BAC still holding onto its 11% H-share stake. BAC is still not allowed to offer personal banking services though it may serve corp customers.

Hong Yuan Securities – Chairman Tang Shisheng will resign and may take up post of chairman of Founder Securities. Feng Rong, assistant to president of Jianyin Inv (subsidiary of Central Huijin) and former VP at Hong Yuan will replace him.

Galaxy Securities – Central Huijin will appoint new executives. Central Huijin vice gen man Chen Youan will beocme hairman of Galaxy and its parent Galaxy Fin Holdings. Galaxy chairman Li Ming and secretary Li Zhengqiang will return to the CSRC.

Everbright – Board approves 5.8yuan dividend for every 10 shares. 35.3% of distributable profit.

China Merchant Securities – Sets up PE unit to invesst in unlisteds.

Guoyan – Additional A-share issue approved. 10B yuan offering to supp cap and fund expansion.

Minsheng – President of Life Ins subsidiary resigns for personal reasons and may move to Sino Life Ins, which is part owned by Tokio Marine and Nichido Fire Ins.

Pacific Century – Expects AIG’s asset man biz it acquired to be profitable this year. Includes unaffiliated clients, some general accts, and affiliated assets under man. Richard Li owns this private inv firm with ints in infra, prop, satellite comm, and other inv in the region.

First Eastern – HK PE firm. Will set up yuan fund to invest in Northeastern SMEs.

CLSA, Guosheng – JV to begin in 2010 for domestic yuan fund.

Insurance – Life ins premium income up 2.2% YTD.

China Life Ins – Aug premium I down 12%.

PICC – Prepares for 4th restructuring in its 60yr history. Branching out into prop ins, life ins, and investments for IPO. Assets have tripled to 300B yuan and assets under man have 5x’d to 725B yuan under Wu Yan. Could’ve listed on SSE when its affiliate peaked on the HK bourse, but parent would not have been able to support developing its branches in the future. Firm was hamped by lack of open market capital access nor possible cash injections from the govt. Listing would also have diluted its stakes in its HK affiliate and may have had its affiliate taken over hostilely. Injecting other assets into it would have been possible, but its growth had limits and would’ve undervalued its nascent businesses. Hit hard by Sichuan earthquake. Overshadowed by China Life, Ping An, Pac Ins. Was able to boost lif ins by reforming its provincial life ins subsidiaries into PICC Life, while ensuring P&C received a stake in Life. Was able to pick up rural clients. May be hurt by high cap costs and heavy spending to build its sales force. Increased stakes in Asset Man, Life, and Health, while branching out into Credit Trust and Huawen. Huawen holds hundreds of billions of As and licenses for financial business including MFs and trusts. Owns shares of People’s Daily (yes, that one).
China Post – National post service. Launches life ins firm for its subsidiaries. 500M yuan.

Yangtze Power – Buys assets from SOE parent China Three Gorges Project; operates Three Gorges Dam.

Huadian Power, Yinxing Coal – buys 45% stake for 600M yuan, given priority in purchasing coal at market prices for 45% of miner’s output.

Trina – Obtains $300M loans from 5 Chinese banks to fund 500Mw solar photovoltaic project.

Shanghai Electric – Siemens injects 712M yuan into Power Generation Equ subsidiary. Large mechancial and electrical equ manufacturer.

CNPC – CDB extends $30B in credit lines to fund overseas expansion. Parent of PetroChina. May expand into deepwater exploration in 2015.

Petrochina – JV btw China Ocean Shipping and CNPC lost billions in unrealized losses from oil derivatives.

Venezuela – China will invest $16B in heavy-oil JV in Orinoco.

Galaxy Resources – Aussie firm. 4h largest lithium carbonate producer after signing a fin deal with a Chinese PE firm Creat Grp who gets a 19.9% stake worth A$26M and becomes largest stakeholder. A$130M in bank loans will also be arranged to help dev a spodumene extraction project and a lithium carbonate project.

CNCE (China National Chemical Engineering) – CSRC approves app to list 1.23B A-shares in a Shanghai IPO. Proceeds will supp working capital, buy equ, develop IT. Owned by Chemical Engineering Group Corp which is SOE.

CISA – spot and contract iron ore prices converging at $80 per ton.

Hebei Iron & Steel – Applies to CSRC to inject subsidiary assets from  Chende Xinxin Vanadium & Titanium and Handan I&S into another subsidiary Tangshan I&S.

Jien Nickel – Extends offer period for Canadian Royalties (mineral explorer).

Jinchuan – Metal producer. Expands output to 8K tons of cobalt, 130K tons of nickel. Plans overseas expansion.

Baosteel – Lowers steel product prices for Oct by 200-350 yuan per ton from Sept levels. Hot-rolled carbon, hot-rolled low-carbon, cold-rolled prepainted steel, steel plate.

Shougang – Expands steel capacity to 30M tons by 2012, comapred to 12M last year.

Railway Erju – Wins contracts to build 4 expressways worth 1.17B yuan in Sichuan, Fuijian, and Hunan.

China State Construction Engineering – Wins 1.9B yuan construction project in Guiyang. Largest home builder in China.

China Vanke – Largest RE dev by market cap. Sales rose 18.3% yoy in Aug. Shareholders aprove 11.2B yuan share offering. Will not seek to spend heavily on sites in top-tier cities. Will try not to bid up record prices for prime sites (translation: hell yeah we are).

COFCO, Vanke – Jointly win auction for 2.2B yuan for Beijing reisdential site in Fangshan district.

Glorious Property – Will raise $1.5B in an HK IPO on Oct 2, following a share offer with UBS, JPM, and DB underwriting. Shanghai Industrial, SOLI, NanFung Prop, and other QDII under China Southern Fund will be key investors. PE ratio of 19-24.7.

Country Garden – Issues $300M 5yr HY bonds at 11.75%, which will be used to repay $30M in loans from CITIC Ka Wah Bank and fin prop dev projects. 100% oversubscribed.

Shimao Prop – H1 earnings rose 30$, boosted by one-time gain from selling comm prop projects to subsidiary Shanghai Shimao, and strong prop sales.

Legend Holdings – Parent of Lenovo. Plans to inv 10B yuan over the next 5yrs into clean energy, new mats, enviro protection, fin services, high-tech. Will go public after its core ops have floated. Hony Capital may inv in Happigo Home Shopping.

COLI – considers takeover of Everbright assets held by appliance maker Shell Electric MFG.

Dalian Wanda – Files A-share listing app for 2010.

GOOG – President of Google China Lee Kai-Fu resigns to start own business. VP Liu Yun will take over. YEo Boon-Lock (director of Google’s Shanghai engineering office) takes over the engineering and R&D responsibilities. Lee rose from natural language and user interface divisions and has had stays at Silicon Graphics, AAPL and MSFT. Will invest 800M yuan over 4-5yrs w US VC firm WI Harper Grp, Lenovo chairman Liu Chuanzhi, Hon Hai Precision Industry chairman Terry Gou, etc. Enterprise will act as an angel investor, providing seed capital for startups and helping them with management expertise and analysis. May target Internet, wifi, e-commerce, search engines.

Alibaba – YHOO sells 57.5M shares, due to frosty relations. Fears about Alibaba stripping high-quality assets from YHOO China.

Tencent – ISP. Has no plans to list on A-shares currently, though expects to in the future.

SNDA – Gaming subsidiary plans to list on NASDAQ, issue 63M ADRs ($10-$12). Capital will go towards divesting the unit and allow parent to focus on developing online games platform.

Lenovo – Mobile unit launches first OPhone supporting China Mobile’s 3G service.

ChinaCache – Largest content delivery networks provider. Obtains $10M inv from INTC. Upgrade core capabilities and CDN tech.

Gome – Ex-chairman’s asset freeze extended.

Lianhua Supermarket – largest supermarket chain. Shareholders approved Hualian Supermarket purchase for 492M yuan.

Mengniu Dairy – H1 earnings rose 13.6% due to lower costs and an optimized product portfolio.

Wuliangye – Liquor producer. CSRC is investigating securities violation.

Huiyuan Juice – H1 profit dropped badly due to disruptions from failed takeover by KO. Op rev fell 32%. Will benefit in H2 from consolidated distribution network and a broader product line.

Wumart – In talks to buy Jiangsu Times retailer. 4th largest retailer.

Yashili – Carlyle Group and Fosun High Tech inject $100M funds in return for 23% stake.

Sinopharm – Top pharmaceutical distributor. Hopes to raise $1B from HK IPO this month. It is a JV btw Sinopharm Grp and Shanghai Fosun High-tech Grp.

ZTE – Leading telecom equ manu. Wins contract w HK’s mobile operator CSL for a nextgen mobile network tied to Long Term Evolution tech. (4G)

China Unicom – $1B share swap w Spain’s Telefonica as part of a strategic alliance. Telefonica also gets a seat on the board.

China Mobile – Will pursue listing on mainland, will not do Depository Receipts or A-shares. New users rise in Aug by 1.32M, due to handset subsidies. Target of 3M new 3G users may hard to attain.

NEC – cuts 25% of Beijing staff as part restructuring of Chinese subsidiaries.

Bestway – Marine engineering design as well as ship design. IPO planned of 20.5-28.7 yuan on GEM.

Beijing Toread – IPO range of 19-25 yuan per share. 35-45 PE? Outdoor sporting goods producer. Offering proceeds will fund expansion of sales network.

Opinion -Lee Kaifu(Innovation Workshop): Rebuilt GOOG market share from 16-31% after 2006 govt blockages. Liu Yun was once CEO for SK Telecom in China and bought convertibles in 2007 to get a stake in China Unicom. Is trying a 50M yuan incentive plan for SMEs to use search engine marketing.  Wu Xiaoling (National People’s Congress): MinComm should lower threshold for establishing leasing firms and offer equal accesss to Chinese firms. Currently, foreigner and JV leasing comapnies are approved by provincial branches of the ministry. Domestic leasing firms are still in trial phase.  SWS Research: As long as new lending doesn’t fall below 300B yuan a mo for the rest of 2009, then China will continue to grow. Banks in western China have already implemented credi restrictions. 50% of new loans were given to govt-related fin institutions. Platforms must now submit more than guarantee letters from local govts to get loans; hold land collateral? But some project inv went to stock and RE markets. Banks can only inspect funds flowing internally; funds in the borrower hands are hard to track. National Audit Office has increased observation and are tracing securities funding sources. Lending should enter phase of steady growth, restrictions are unlikely to rise drastically. IF funds outstanding for forex increase, pressure on current monetary pressure will increase. Those funds are up 77.8B yuan to 220.5B yoy. Investors are also adding to trusts and other banking products. 180 were launched in Jun, 135 July, 145 Aug. Monthly issue exceed last year’s total issue. Personal IRs will probably rise higher. Andrew Shang (HK Sec and Futs Comm): EU is the largest economy in the world at 30% GDP, though the euro is only in use in 16/27 of countries. Pretty remarkable despite being only 10yrs old and the first notes being issued 7yrs ago. Predecessor EEC was formed n 1957; transition was thus 45 years long and with many intermediate steps along the way. European Monetary System failed in the 80s, fighting speculators. Coordinating monetary and fiscal policies for stabilizing the currency or maintainng parity is hard as some country has to lose out during adjustments. Maastricht Treaty imposes restraints on members from running up more than 3% GDP debt. Vol of currency turnover is at 38% of total, unchanged since 2001. USD accounts for 64% of 6.4T offical reserves worldwide, $4.1T identified reserves. Euro accounts for 26.3%, pound 4.4%, yen 2.5% (ouch). Euro was a tool of political, not economic, integration (wat). Union of many currencies after internally fixed pegs among members and flexible rates individually against USD. Europe has a large, stable internal market and runs a small current acct deficit with the world, international bal sheet deficit of 10% GDP. Still a rivalry btw nationalized banking system. Asia only has trade integration at the moment, and even then…  Jiang Liping (Energy Research Institute, State Grid Corp): Intermittent nature of wind makes it difficult for state grid to use wind power on a large scale. Balance btw gen and C loads necessary, but this is difficult to adjust with coal power. Xia Bin (Fin Research Institute of State Council): China’s high growth and potential will put pressure on the yuan to appreciate, as neighbors wish to hold more of its currency. HK should be pushed to develop its offshore yuan market and widen the use of the currency in Asia (as reserves?). Expand crossborder trade, encourage domestic firms to use the yuan for outward inv and overseas acquisitions. Fan Junli (Caijing): Regulators have instituted changeds that allow securities firms to consolidate. 107 firms will merge. Local govts that control minor brokers will be hurt, though the industry will be strengthened in a step towards allowing foreign competition. Huatai, Guoxin, and GF are being encouraged to integrate and expand their territories, while large brokerages like CITIC and Huijin Family are limited by the 1 Participant, 1 Controller Rule. First consolidation wave in 1990s, followed by the emergence of the powerhouses in 2000-2001. 2001-2004 saw an overhaul of the industry which triggered further consolidation among the weaker firms. In 2008, more M&A among the smaller firms shrank the industry further. Only 70-80 are expected to survive this round. Regulators want to chip away at brokers protected by tight links to local govt fund-raising. Local govts also hold controlling stakes and don’t want to lose them. One Participant, One Controller Rule requires 2 or more securities firms controlled by a single firm or individual to not conduct overlapping brokerage business. During the 2004 overhual, Central Huijin took ints in 9 firms, giving tem the largest market share. It has now been buying some of CCB Invs’ brokers, allowing CCB Invs to reach the standard. Huijin is also transfering its broker stakes to UBS, Guotai, and Qilu, though it still controls Galaxy, Central Inv, Shenyin Wanguo, and CITIC Construction Inv Securities. China only allows foreign firms to offer inv banking except for China Euro Securities which is a JV with foreign backing and has a brokerage permit to operate in the Yangtze Delta and a inv advisory permit from CSRC. Huo Kan, Wang Jing, Yu Hairong (Caijing): NBS announced Aug 11 that industrial growth only increased 0.1pp mom; the markets dived the next day. The govt-led lending increase in inv has helped the economy in H1, despite exports being a drag. Urban FAI growth slowed further than expected. Halt of govt int in July hurt. 200B yuan remains to be allocated by the govt. New projects and planned inv for new projects also fell in Jul as hopefully the economy grows at a slower but steadier pace. Worries however about inflation with a global recovery mean that policymakers may tighten in mid October or in December. Consumption in July was stable and retail sales grew, though they are unlikely to replace govt spending quick enough to prop up economy. Trade declined by only 19.4% in July.  Andrew Sheng (Tsinghua U): Countries with a constant trade surplus should have an appreciating currency. Japan had to keep exporting capital in order to keep the yen down. Japanese were unable to promote their currency as a reserve currency despite offering cheap aid through yen loans due to the high volatility of the $-yen exchange rate; it was difficult to hedge and borrow. Seignorage and the services income that comes from being an international fin center would have supplemented its manufacturing exports. But to be a reserve currency, the yen must be stable, have low transaction costs, and high transparency. Yen was volatile and expensive to transact in. Being a yen exporter meant that a spreads btw Treasuries and Japanese deposits could be wiped out by any significant yen appreciation unless your earnings were in yen. Japanese exporters have preferred to export in yen and import in $s in order to protect their earnings in yen term and saving on import costs when the yen appreciated. Borrowers had to pay forec costs which made the yen more volatile. A yen appreciation causes both borrower and investors to buy yen to protect themselves from appreciation. It also helps if a wide variety of fin and real assets are available for purchase at attractive yields in liquid markets. Japanese asset bubble explosion has prevented that. Huang Yiping (Peking U): Diversify forex holdings away from $, increase outbound direct inv, widen the trading band of the yuan. Euro, yen, yuan or rupee will gain greater prominence as a reserve currency. Zhuang Jian (ADB): Predicts a steady economic recovery and sustainable Chinese growth for the next 2yrs. Wang Ziwu, Wen Xiu (Caijing): Hot money is flowing back into China at a record $170B in H1. Hot money increases China’s forex reserves. SAFE is concerned that it may start inflation. Hot money is derived by subtracting trade surplus, FDI, forex gains/losses from the forex reserves. $122B in hot money may have entered in Q2. Figures don’t exclude service trade, securities inv, and other inv that affects balance of payments numbers. Hot money piggybacks into the country through standard cap channels, service trade deals, and personal forex transactions. Stephen Green believes that $56B in unexplained outflows occured in Q1 and that $30B inflows occured in Q2, possibly up to $90B total in Q2. Expectations for yuan appreciation on the non-deliverable forward market remain dampened. Yua Hairong (Caijing): Exports have been buoyed by increases in shipping traffic, China becoming the world’s largest exporter, other positive indicators. Jiaozhu, Shangdong has posted a 5% increase yoy in exports for Q1, but Q2 saw a slump; Wang Jian (bureau chief at Foreign Enterprises Admin) explains that Q1 reflected unfinished 2008 orders while Q2 reflects new orders for 2009. Zhejiang shows similar slumps among 64% of exporters. Taiwanese Inv Enterprises Assoc of Dongguan has seen its membership shrink as members suspend ops. 2-3M migrants have left Dongguan and not returned. Foreign orders for labor-intensive goods have started to improve, but not so for machinery and electronics. Trade decline has narrowed but container production has halted. Overseas customers have been defaulting, making expansion unlikely. The State Council has tried to help SMEs by increasing export credit ins to offset payment risk associated with foreign trade. Low-tech firms are the hardest hit as bargainin power has been reduced and firms must upgrade tech. Local govts are offering to help by subsidizing costs associated with expanding trade through advertising and marketing. Liu Chuanzhi(Lenovo): Founder. New shareholding structure. China Oceanwide Holdings (Lu Zhiqiang) has paid 2.7B yuan for a 29% stake in Lenovo’s parent Legend, reducing the state’s take from 65-36%. Academy still holds the biggest stake, followed by an employee group. Lieu is still president. New shareholder supports Legend’s long-term vision. Didn’t prefer a SOE owner. Restructuring has given Legend better governance and for Liu’s successor, though succession remains a difficult issue. Management incentives issue still big. Also, the direct inv business. Future dev model might resemble Cheung Kong Holdings. Lu Zhiqiang (Oceanwide): Launched career in 1985 and has invested in RE, financing, energy, chemical engineering. As of 10B yuan. Friends with Liu Chuanzhi. Lenovo was a strategic investment. Appraised and reappraised Lenovo based on net A. Will Liu stay on? Employee stock ownership is still too low, Lenovo’s dev requires more new employees. Worries that incentive mechanism may become a problem. 8-1o yuan per share in the future? Ming Shuliang, Yu Ning (Caijing): 25yrs ago, Liu Chuanzhi accepted 200K yuan from CAS to establish Lenovo. Trying to shift from state ownership to private ownership, qualify for A-share listing. Doesn’t need govt approval for internal decisions. May need to dilute shares to resolve the incentives problem. Lu and LIu are members of the Taishan Association, a club for executives at top Chinese enterprises. President of Taisahn Evertrust Chairman Lin Rongqiang informed Lu that CAS was selling part of its Legend stake; Lu found Liu to discuss the matter. Liu had halped Lu in 2004 to finance land deals. Lu was able to lobby the Dept of the United Front Work CPCCC and All-China Federation of Indus and Comm to convince CAS to consider Lu. Part of a process to transition from the red hat of govt agency approval to private board of directors. Liu introduced a flexible bonus system to motivate employees, and to reduce state shareholdings and increasing employees holdings. MinFIn told him to fuck off, but CAS gave some away anyway. When Lenovo split from Legend subsidiary Digital China, Liu entered the VC market. Zhu Linan was put in charge of Legend investments and began investing in stock and established Hony Capital. Also launched Raycom RE Dev to invest in prop, and an autonomous fund for direct investment. Liu worries about employee turnover as most workers are still relatively new. Needed an investor with understanding with CAS and Legend, back Legend’s future strategic plans. Beijing U professor Zhou Qiren believes that the SASAC policy of “1 majority shareholder” is flawed and costly. CAS demanded reqs of registered cap and profitability. Was the price too low? Based on estimated NAV of state-owned assets and management costs? Legend is trying to increase direct inv ventures while reducing dependence on Lenovo. Core assets need to reach the scope of Lenovo’s total assets. Can Legend list on the H-shares and A-shares?

Education – Policy Banks: Exim Bank, ADB, CDB are used to promote and finance the construction of infra, promote exports, and safeguard food production. Now, they have been commercialized, though the ADB still caters to agriculture. Exim was once 1/10 the size of CDB but has expanded rapidly through providing foreigners with dev aid and preferential loans, distributing govt-backed loans to foreign nations, financing international engineering projects and the export of high-tech products, overseas expansion, and built a market-oriented division alongside its policy-directed functions. By 2008, the market division had completely covered losses from policy-lending and reported profits for the 1st time ever. NPAs are down 2B yuan to 7B. Its primary policy objective is the promotion of foreign trade and diplomacy by capitalizing domestic exporters and exporting credit to profitable foreign projects; yet its customer base is overwhelmingly private biz ints which it competes for against the Big 4. They can provide loans at half the Big 4 IRs. CB has planned to inject 200B yuan into Eximbank to help with restructuring. Regulators are worried about the effects of the trade collapse earlier this year on the bal sheet and its policy goal of supporting export financing. In Q2, its lending surged 130% yoy, raising concerns about CAR and a lack of recapitalization. Info about its cap structure/bal sheet is sketchy; NPL provisions are probably insufficient and reg standards would imply the bank is neg net cap. Eximbank gets its capital by issuing interbank bonds, receiving loans from the CB, and fiscal injections. Li Ruogu, Pres of Eximbank, believes that compliance with the 8% min cap req wil require a 40B yuan injection after loan loss provisions. A 200B injection by the CB would ease pressure from soaring forex reserves. Restructuring would imply a move away from the state policy bank model and establishing capital adequacy and an effective risk control framework.

Good Afternoon

Just started my new site. Its designed for people with an interest in DIY audio. I am in the process of building a completely new hi-fi from ground up. Currently I have some half finished loud speakers (which currently need re-building :-/ ) and I’m about to start building a Tubelab Simple Single Ended valve amp.

I’ll update some more when I get chance!

Peace out

Chris

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SSE 20090828 dc2860

SSE is presently at 100ma, & trendline support (green line).

recover?
i “personally” hope that it recovers from there.

high fever?
Falling the above, the measured move is, wa, -680 from break point.
Along the way, the key levels are:
2875 fibo38, 2715 FIBO23, 2570 fibo50, 2390, 2355 fibo61, 2320, 2100

Time will unfold..