AKA – Stuck in a rut.

My muse has left me. The camera comes with me everywhere. But I’m just not seeing things.

I go to work.

I come home.

I get dinner ready.

Browse the web, watch TV, read, whatever…

And go to bed.

Day in, day out.

I don’t know what to do to break this cycle. It’s depressing. I want to do something. I want to shoot. i want to create. I want to see.

I used to be able to see things everywhere. My eye would be always roaming. Always putting something together. Always looking for that subtle thing. Always finding a way to portray the world around me as I see it. Taking hundreds of photos a week.

Now I just see nothing. I’m just stagnating in my every day existence on auto pilot. I’m missing the feeling of creativity as it slowly simmers, growing into a rolling boil and finally to the rush when it all comes together and I feel alive. Feel human.

I miss my muse. I want her back.

ɰ

South Carolina Policy Council’s new initiative:

Apparently I have enough time to update my post tag list, nothing new in the land of N yet, trying to figure out how I’m going to interlink all of my story’s into movuies and stuff.

I wish I had the energy to write poetry these days. My life is a poem, and the well of my mind feels dry. Or incubating? I don’t know. I just feel consumed with the present moment right now, and unable to get it up poetically anymore.

Is there life after “happily ever after?”

Can art be incubated in the cozy shell of contentment, or does it require an oven of tension to produce properly delicious results?
Is there such a thing as too much peace? What kinds of ailments does it cause? Hypersmugness? Literary impotence? 

Is there something in all tormented artists that refuses to stay content for too long… that runs at the prospect of too much ease and comfort? Am I one of those people who believes, deep down inside, that in order to stay wild… I have to constantly break out of the wombs I find myself in, no matter how pleasant they feel?

Is it wrong to feel sentimentally attached to joys that may someday reach their expiration date? To frame them and put them on the pedestal of forever? To agree to tiptoe around certain subjects and agree to disagree about others, so that you can have a palatable experience on earth together free of any of the growing you both actually so sorely need (and on a subconscious level, were attracted to about each other in the first place)? 

Is it possible to predict the future? Is it even right? In a sense, marriage is something from some back-street gypsy storefront, because it pretends to do just this. But not just the future tomorrow or next year… forever. “Till death do us part.” 

How ironic that the church hasn’t noticed. 

Is it wrong to know as deeply as I do, that all things are bound to change or fade away like the pink petals Jeni made snow of today? Sometimes, they change with us, and that can be amazing when that happens. There is nothing more beautiful than a friendship, residence in a place, relationship or family bond that has gone through a lot of quantum leaps and keeps on being more meaningful with each one.

But, sometimes they just don’t. Sometimes you just can’t move past the blocks, and that’s OK… we all have forever, and not every experience is really meant to benefit us permanently. 

Sometimes it’s unsettling to people how easily I can flow on like a river. My nature is dynamic and full of contradictions; I can be so capable of joy and gratitude, yet too much ease makes me uneasy. It doesn’t mean I don’t love or get attached in my life. It means I understand that loving is being true to myself, even when it seems painful or impersonal. If I’m not 100 percent authentic in my own skin, I can never really love another person. And they can never really love me. When it comes to love and happiness, I’ve always been a warrior. What’s comfortable and flattering is much less important to me than what is true. “Free speech is the lifeblood of love,” Tokyo Godfathers quipped synchronistically to me the other day, as Hana the crazy drag queen bag lady cursed out Gin in front of his estranged daughter to test their love. 

Yes, it is. 

If you don’t have truth… burning, raw, sometimes uncomfortably jarring soul truth… what do you have? Flattery. I don’t need that. I already love the person I see in the mirror. And I know her well enough to know what she needs.

All we really have is this moment. Deep down, I know this so much. It doesn’t bother me. At least not anymore. Maybe at one point, it did. But it gets easier. It really does. It hurts like hell at first. I used to hold onto things so hard and doubt my instincts for so long before I started to understand that it’s okay. If you act with a pure heart, nothing good and meant for you will leave you forever. All of life is already a part of you, anyway. 

Life is all about letting go. Only in letting go do the things that matter really come back to us. And that, to me, is what poetry is all about. Letting go of the caterpillars, and seeing what comes back to me as a butterfly. Sometimes I am hurting so much about something, I feel so indignant and wounded… and all I have to do is close my eyes and open them to realize… it’s nothing. It’s just life. Let it go… peacefully, indescribably, just in your heart … and watch what happens. I wait for the boomerangs. It’s a pastime by now. 

Happily ever after is just a station. As soon as I become too content, I realize I’ve created a prison of expectation and inertia. And in prison, I write poetry… or maybe poetry to me is my way of understanding what prisons I’ve made for msyelf. I’ve taken the things and people I love most, and made them into tools for my own security. In doing so, I’ve made cages for them, too. And yet these cages are what makes society run. They’re what we all want. 
And yet the irony to me is that there is one thing in life that is more sacred than any treasure, spiritual or material, in the world to me: true friendship. 

What is a friendship? It’s two people giving each other permission to be fully themselves around each other. And enjoying those selves without reservations or self-censure. And what is a relationship? Maybe it starts out as a true friendship, but often, it becomes exactly the opposite of that. A relationship consists of two people trying to meet each other’s needs and fulfill each other’s ideals… sexually, emotionally, spiritually, romantically. And because of that, there is something about the transitions from pure friendships into love makes me mourn internally at a certain point… the point where you know there’s no turning back the tide of hopes, fears and insecurities that are starting to make themselves comfortable in their new bed. Just as a beautiful vacation spot can suddenly seem less idyllic if you have to start looking for a job and an apartment there. It might have been great to lay on the beach and enjoy the sea air, but now you’re expecting to be fed and housed here. Suddenly, there are expectations. Needs. Laws to be followed. What was once a poem becomes the mission statement of a joint business venture.

There is a part of me that is always wild. And that part of me desperately needs purity. I love the moment when something beautiful is fresh, real and immediate. I don’t like when it starts to feel ritualistic, expected. I am constantly seeking this freshness. Poetry is a way I coax freshness out of everything. As long as that channel is wide open, I know that everything else in my life is going to go OK, even when the world is falling apart around me. 
Poetry is a knife, for me. It is sharp and it sometimes hurts. And right now I’m realizing: I’m holding onto picture-perfect. To happily-ever-after. I like the way my cake looks. The frosting is so pretty, I’m afraid to cut its flowery surface. I’m afraid of what darkness I might find inside. And that isn’t allowing me to create. 

Happily ever after is just a station. As soon as I become too content, I realize I’ve created a prison of expectation and inertia. And in prison, I write poetry… or maybe poetry to me is my way of understanding what prisons I’ve made for myself.

In order to appreciate what is real, I need to distance myself from my attachments a bit in my mind. I need to let go, and befriend the shadows again. To pick up the knife and start cutting. To embrace the dangerous beauty of truth, which contains both shadows and light. Poetry to me is not just about odes and praises. It’s a science. Sometimes it’s simply holding a magnifying glass up to an eyeball or an anthill and showing something grotesque. 

And in that unflinchingly critical mirror, you have something exquisitely beautiful… even when it is reflects things that disturb and shake us from tranquility. It’s as much about darkness as it is about light. 

© Sarah Noack 2009

Still the only thing fresh in this town is the manure.   The stagnation of inherited inbred ideology lingers with this aire.  To some, this night of memorabilia is their only experience of a dream.  Long lost hopes, from the gates of a requiem walking hand in hand with a Coors light and some road kill at their side.  For others, it was like the day after their cousin married outside of their race… being careful with their words, afraid to ask real questions…  None the less, no real care to take a step out.

After the bar was spit up on by the drooling outsiders, the classmate’s reunited and separated once again into their old cliques. 

Lacking any real truth, with manipulating, superficial honesty, they go back and forth with attacks on each other and those they feel threatened by.   Curtness and lack of propriety in their values and morals with each breath out, they seem to be warm and cozy in their disgusting dialog.  The pot calling the kettle black.  Gossiping about gossipers.  Tragedy of life being so pitiful is the only reality here that is spoken, though the directors of this play haven’t the faintest idea of how the script is as old as their addicted, handed down, rewinded and rewinded ”original ideas” that they all share and pretend are so original.  Each actor plays the part of enabling this to continue, playing ignorant and growing older. 

 I sit to wait for the tow truck.  Keys in the trunk, sister in His bed.  The one exception I saw all night and I offered her to him, best indeed.  To keep myself from a weakness that could bring this place… this heap of a town closer to me.  I doubt there would be any power from him, but I stay careful of tragedy and a trip into hell.

Earlier, I described how Ms Fizz and I purged her closet; I then shared the technical and logistical challenges she felt impaired her efforts to be more stylish. Now it was time to dig a little deeper.

Like many people or perhaps just me, my friend Ms Fizz looked at her clothing in aggregate one day and realized her method of event- or desperate-need-based shopping had given her a pretty useless closet. The majority of her so-called wardrobe either didn’t fit, didn’t flatter, or didn’t reflect who she was or how she lived.

So she decided to change. She wasn’t looking to be a head-turning fashion plate or an object of desire; she just wanted to look like she thought about style a bit. And color. Because it’s never a bad thing to go a little Pleasantville on one’s closet, as long as one avoids tossing in random shades of non-black willy and nilly.

Bring on the color!

As we immersed ourselves further into Operation Overhaul, I could tell that Fizz had thought through ALL the factors that contributed to her style stagnation. Despite being one of those tantalizingly private types, she selflessly agreed to go public with her shopping skeletons.

Q: Aside from fit and logistical issues, were there any other barriers that brought your closet to this really sad place that does not at all reflect your fabulously-extroverted, very generous, mega-sparkly personality?”

A: “Being driven by the cheapness factor didn’t help; despite being lucky enough to have some savings to spend on clothes, my default is “Why buy 1 expensive top when I can get 3 cheaper things?” I don’t necessarily buy 3 cheaper things, of course–or if I do I don’t buy the things that would really help update my closet.”

Interior demons discussed? Check. Now for the external influences. I knew Fizz had worked in some pantyhose-n-heels places in the past as well as a setting she describes as “no shirt, no shoes, no problem.” [No, not a strip club: a start-up.]

The latter was hardly a place of style inspiration, but what about her most recent job? Oh right–she was part of an organization with a dress code I’d have to label as “Aggressively Casual.” Less Hiking to the Latte Bar mellow, more I Could Kick Your Ass Without Messing Up My Look. With some Just Rolled Out of Bed, You Wanna Make Something Of It? subsets.

Q: If you were a tree in your workplace, what kind of tree would you be? Talk to me about cultural expectations.”

A: “There are places that don’t really care about the larger social signals clothing can send, and I know some people like that.

“But for me, the downside of working in those types of environments is that they don’t support or encourage doing more than basic self-care. People either don’t use clothing for personal expression or they dial their efforts way back so they fit into the overall culture.

“I’m realizing that I have a tendency to subconsciously absorb what others are doing, then incorporate it into my style or behavior. Between my co-workers and living in a very casual city, my wardrobe went into a death spiral without my really noticing it.

“I mean I didn’t give up entirely, I was trying…but I guess whatever I bought didn’t make enough of a difference.”

As I’d met Fizz for a Reunion Recap and seen her positively strutting down the street in her simple post-alteration cotton separates, I knew SHE knew how it felt to be a bit…intentional…about her visual presentation. And being both frugal and luckier than many these days, she had a nice little nest egg to spend on herself and on the economy.

In my completely unqualified eye she was ready, willing, and able to handle the massive amounts of shopping and relentless partial nudity that accompany a major wardrobe overhaul.

I, on the other hand, was in danger. Having spent most (okay, all) of my Fall/Winter update money, I’d have to violate my Mae Westian nature and actually RESIST temptation as I tromped around helping Ms Fizz find gorgeous things for her gorgeous self. Who knew that spending other people’s money could be so tough?

Next: Part 4 of Ringside at Fizz’s Genie/Bottle bust-out, aka Pictorial Payoff

This morning I went to a support group for creative women, mostly artists.  I experienced a loud karmic NO – none of it rang as authentic.

The creative support group members all have trouble getting things done, lots of ideas, lots of opinions for how other people should do things, but as individuals none of them should be rushed or made to feel like they should get anything done. It’s much more productive, in the group view, to share their fears. This seemed more fashionable than genuine. Its as if each of them invented fear and they are the only ones to experience it. Each group member spoke about her issues and then  “outsourced” goal setting. Based on whatever the person was trying to accomplish, other group members assigned her specific goals and deadlines. Assignments may or may not be accepted and then its the next person’s turn.

This is a cash cow for personal coaches. I wonder about the validity of encouraging people to feel they can do anything. The phrase “if you love what you do you’ll achieve success” is over simplified. If success means recognition from a large audience, we  don’t all get that. Is that so terrible? It requires something outside of talent. Its more along the lines of survival of the fittest.  It requires drive, determination and the ability to pick yourself up A LOT. Should is replaced by keep trying.

If you can’t do something that’s OK, change it slightly, or try something else. Dwelling on what you can’t do is like a sickness, it draws energy from yourself and others. That doesn’t count as art.

Après l’arrivée en fanfare dans le troisième millénaire, avec une année 2000  particulièrement faste au plan économique et social , la Polynésie française va de désillusions en désillusions. Le ralentissement de la croissance a fait place à la stagnation. L’année 2008 a été celle du basculement et 2009 sera l’année de la pire récession que la Polynésie ait connue durant toute son histoire contemporaine. Un cycle s’achève.

Il s’achève par une double crise politique et morale qui mine la combativité et la capacité de la société polynésienne à se projeter dans l’avenir : les polynésiens abordent une nouvelle étape de leur histoire économique et sociale dans un grand désarroi. En quête d’un sens à donner à ce nouvel ordre économique mondial au sein duquel ils ne sont pas certains de trouver leur place tant la mondialisation malmène leur économie et remet en cause les situations acquises.

Cette crise de confiance est paradoxale, car elle prend de l’ampleur au moment même où la planète est entrée dans une phase de progrès technique sans précédent et où les pays dits “émergents” connaissent une croissance phénoménale.

Il y a donc place pour l’innovation pour mieux satisfaire notre demande interne et ces milliards de nouveaux consommateurs, notamment dans le domaine alimentaire.

Or, ces évènements sont vécus comme une menace pour notre économie et pour notre modèle social. Comme si mondialisation devait forcément rimer avec régression.

Nous ne sommes nullement condamnés à quoique ce soit pour peu que nous reprenions confiance en nous.

Favoriser la croissance, encourager la production efficace de biens et services, améliorer notre productivité collective par plus de travail, moderniser et adapter notre système de protection sociale, mieux dépenser l’argent public, résister à la mondialisation en étant aussi créatifs que les concurrents pour inventer des produits et services différenciés, mener une politique économique inventive et efficace, tout celà est possible.

Ce que d’autres ont su faire, pourquoi ne serions-nous pas capables de le mettre en oeuvre, en l’adaptant aux spécificités polynésiennes ?

Le pire serait de céder à la tentation de se protéger de la concurrence extérieure en élevant des barrières. Ce serait la sclérose assurée.

Je ne crois pas au repli. Je ne crois pas non plus à l’ultra libéralisme, car l’Etat et le Pays doivent piloter notre développement collectif en affectant et en mobilisant les ressources de la manière la plus judicieuse qui soit. Il faudra de plus en plus interroger la pertinence de telle ou telle action publique et le contenu de telle ou telle dépense.

La priorité doit donc aller à la ­reconstitution d’une offre compétitive dans la mondialisation, à la maîtrise des coûts , à l’amélioration de la qualité des services publics et à la réhabilitation du travail. Le Pays doit donc devenir, avec l’appui de l’Etat,  un “Pays-stratège”. Il doit prévoir, identifier correctement les problèmes quand ils se produisent, manifester la volonté de les résoudre une fois qu’ils ont été identifiés et à y parvenir une fois que la volonté de le faire s’est manifestée. Celà exige de la cohérence dans la durée.

Je perçois dans de trop rares initiatives – stratégie sectorielle pour la pêche et la perliculture, volonté de bâtir enfin un vrai schéma de transports interinsulaires ou d’élaborer un cadre stratégique “pour un tourisme durable et équitable”- l’esquisse de début d’une telle stratégie. Celà va dans le sens de ce que j’ai préconisé dans mes précédents billets. Cependant, il faut accélérer le pas, car un énorme retard a été pris.

A nos décideurs d’ouvrir la voie en inventant, en étroite concertation avec les acteurs économiques et sociaux,  une politique économique et sociale adaptée, efficace et au service de tous.

Like many others families, the Vix Household has had QUITE a year. And by “quite” I mean way, way too many big tricks overshadowing delicious treats. In the spirit of the holiday and the proverbial picture/1000 word we’re talking:

But then as Mark Knopfler wrote and Mary Chapin Carpenter so cheerily sings:

When you’re rippin’ and you’re ridin’
And you’re coming on strong
You start slippin’ and slidin’
And it all goes wrong because

Sometimes you’re the windshield
Sometimes you’re the bug”

Damn GPS.

…oh I’m lazy enough to lust for a cruise-control life, but I guess there’s something to be said for constant course correction…

(Astoria Halloween streetscape)

The Wall Street Journal reports on the ways in which biofuels can harm the environment:

President Obama observed in Florida on Tuesday that his “clean energy economy” will require “mobilization” on the order of fighting World War II, building the interstate highway system and going to the moon. Of course, the only “mobilization” going on at the moment is on behalf of ethanol, whose many political dispensations the biofuels lobby is finding new ways to preserve even as the evidence of its destructiveness piles up.

The latest embarrassment arrives via the peer-reviewed journal Science, not known for its right-wing inclinations. A new paper calls attention to what the authors (led by Princeton’s Tim Searchinger) call “a critical accounting error” in the way carbon emissions from biofuels are measured in climate-change programs world-wide.

Though you won’t hear it from the biofuels lobby, ethanol actually generates the same amount of greenhouse gas as fossil fuels, or more, per unit of energy. But this was still supposed to be better than coal or oil because ethanol’s CO2 is “recycled.” Since plants absorb and store carbon that is already in the atmosphere, burning them as fuel would create no new emissions, whereas fossil fuels release CO2 that has been buried for millions of years.

With everything supposedly balancing out, the cap-and-trade programs run by the United Nations and European Union—and maybe soon the U.S.—treat biofuels as carbon-neutral. The Science study argues that this is a false economy, because it doesn’t consider changes in land use. If mature forests are cleared to make room for biofuel-growing farms, then the carbon that would otherwise accumulate in those forests ought to be counted on ethanol’s balance sheet as well.

Cap-and-trade programs exacerbate the problem because developed countries (where emissions are putatively capped) get credit for reductions from ethanol—despite the fact that their biofuels are generally grown in developing countries (where emissions aren’t capped). So if Malaysians burn down a rain forest to grow palm oil that ends up in German biodiesel, Malaysia doesn’t count the land-use emissions and Germany doesn’t count the tail-pipe emissions.

Given these incentives, the authors cite a study showing that by 2050, “based solely on economic considerations, bioenergy could displace 59% of the world’s natural forest cover. . . . The reason: When bioenergy from any biomass is counted as carbon neutral, economics favor large-scale land conversion for bioenergy regardless of the actual net emissions.” In other words, not only is cap and trade self-defeating on its own terms but it also risks creating a genuine ecological disaster.

Of course, government initiatives to promote ethanol are (allegedly) undertaken to promote the common good, without regards to market demand or profits. If this is the case, how can biofuels have such potentially destructive consequences?

The above article is an excellent illustration of why market forces and profitability should not be ignored in considering questions of societal well-being. To understand why economic considerations are so important to the “common good”, we must “pierce the monetary veil”. Money is merely a medium. The fact that a man must produce in order to trade has not changed since money replaced the barter system. Economist Walter Williams explains it best:

Say that you hire me to mow your lawn and afterwards you pay me $30. What I have earned might be thought of as certificates of performance, i.e. proof that I served you. With these certificates of performance in hand, I visit my grocer and demand 3 pounds of steak and a six-pack of beer that my fellow man produced. In effect, the grocer asks, “Williams, you’re demanding that your fellow man, as ranchers and brewers, serve you; what did you do in turn to serve your fellow man?” I say, “I mowed my fellow man’s lawn.” The grocer says, “Prove it!” That’s when I hand over my certificates of performance — the $30.

People typically tend to think of economics in terms of money. Money is, essentially, nothing. The root of all economics is production and trade. Transactions between producers and consumers (everyone is, in actuality, both) occur because of the profit motive. Unfortunately, the term “profit”, when used in relation to corporations, is usually employed with a negative connotation. But let’s define “profit”. Investopedia defines profit as:

A financial benefit that is realized when the amount of revenue gained from a business activity exceeds the expenses, costs and taxes needed to sustain the activity.

A question that every person who criticizes a business’s quest for profits should ask himself whether or not his personal goal is to earn only what he needs to survive on a day-to-day basis, with nothing left over to invest in his future. Any sane individual of course wants to earn wages exceeding his basic needs. Society, as a whole, must produce in excess of its basic needs or it will become stagnant. Only be earning profits can an individual, a business, or a society invest in its future and improve the quality of its existence.

When politicians pay no heed to market forces and fail to consider the profitability of any program (be it private or government in nature), they are denying reality. Destruction by stagnation is the inevitable result.

I haven’t posted for awhile. This post is technically my 50th post and I wanted to do something special for it. However, I tend to write my blogs on the fly, and so planning apparently only makes me stagnate. Actually, I seem to have a problem with stagnation in almost all areas of my life. A lot of times I feel like I’m on autopilot. I never get done what I intend to do, and I often feel like I’m just enduring each day, waiting for it to be over. Sometimes I wonder if I’m even really alive.

I have been listening to the Cure a lot lately, because, well, I love the Cure. Also, one of my friends just burned me a copy of Galore because my Cure collection was lost.  Robert Smith is just one of those songwriters that I think is in my head. One of my favorite songs by the Cure is “Close to Me,” and I recently read this quote from Robert Smith on what this song is about:

“It’s like the end of the day where you feel nothing has been achieved and you’re in a hurry to get the day over with so you can start the next one. You tell yourself you’re going to do lots of positive things. But the next day is just like the one before. Sometimes it goes on for weeks.”

So, thank you loyal readers for your patience, and without further ado, my theme song:

I’ve waited hours for this
I’ve made myself so sick
I wish I’d stayed asleep today
I never thought this day would end
I never thought tonight could ever be
This close to me

Just try to see in the dark
Just try to make it work
To feel the fear before you’re here
I make the shapes come much too close
I pull my eyes out
Hold my breath
And wait until I shake . . .

But if I had your faith
Then I could make it safe and clean
If only I was sure
That my head on the door was a dream

I’ve waited hours for this
I’ve made myself so sick
I wish I’d stayed asleep today
I never thought this day would end
I never thought tonight could ever be
This close to me

But if I had your face
I could make it safe and clean
If only I was sure
That my head on the door
Was a dream

Eines ist klar: Im Moment stecken wir in den USA in einer Phase der Deflation. Und man braucht kein Hellseher zu sein um vorherzusagen, dass diese im Laufe des nächsten Jahres wohl in eine mehrjährige Stagflation münden wird, auf die wiederum eine Zeit steigender Zinsen und Preise folgen dürfte. Kurz- und mittelfristig wird sich sicherlich positiv auswirken, dass die US-Zentralbank der Wirtschaft vermehrt Gelder direkt zur Verfügung stellt. Zudem sehe ich die Chancen eines zweiten Konjunkturförderungsprogramms als sehr groß an.

Angesichts dieses Szenarios ergeben sich meiner Ansicht nach in den nächsten zwei Jahren gerade im Immobiliensektor ausgesprochen interessante Anlagemöglichkeiten. Es gilt, Objekte zu tiefen Preisen zu erwerben und zu günstigen Zinssätzen langfristig zu finanzieren. Wie ich bereits in meinem letzten Blog-Beitrag erläutert habe, ist ein erfolgreiches Investment heute abhängig von tiefer Marktkenntnis und einer präzisen Planung, um die derzeit doch ausgesprochen ungewöhnlichen Rahmenbedingungen zum eigenen Vorteil zu nutzen. Wie erwähnt sehe ich durch sowohl den Kauf von Objekten, die bereits im Bestand der Banken sind, als auch durch den Kauf der entsprechenden Hypothek mit Abschlag momentan gute Möglichkeiten, auf dem Markt  für gewerbliche Immobilien in den USA mittel- und langfristig zu profitieren.

Die Turbulenzen im gesamtwirtschaftlichen Umfeld erfordern bei der Investition in Immobilien eine flexible Herangehensweise. Altbewährte Anlagestrategien nutzten den Anlegern in den letzten Monaten wenig. Es geht nämlich nicht nur darum, sein Geld in eine ganz bestimmte Asset-Klasse zu investieren, sondern seine Anlagestrategie ganz präzise dem veränderten Umfeld anzupassen. Und dabei möglicherweise von etwaigen Übertreibungen und Irrationalitäten zu profitieren.

Dass wir es im Moment eindeutig mit einer Ausnahmesituation zu tun haben, beweisen die Fakten: Die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und die niedrige Auslastung der Industriekapazitäten haben zu deutlichen Preisreduktionen geführt. Der tiefe Dollar verteuert die Importe. Mieten von Wohn- und Gewerbeimmobilien fallen. Der Preisverfall bei den privat genutzten Immobilien ist noch nicht überall gestoppt, bei den gewerblichen Objekten kommt er jetzt erst richtig ins Rollen. Die Bürger konsumieren weniger und sparen mehr. Die Konjunkturförderungsprogramme des Staates haben nur temporäre Auswirkungen. Kleine- und mittelständische Unternehmen  erhalten von den Banken keine oder kaum noch Finanzierungen.

Einer der wichtigsten Faktoren für die künftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ist indes die steigende Arbeitslosigkeit. Jede Zeit hoher Inflation ging bisher einher mit deutlichem Anstieg der Löhne. Im Moment sind diese aber stagnierend bis rückgängig (minus 5  Prozent im zweiten Quartal). Die Firmen kürzen nicht nur die direkten Lohnkosten, sondern auch Sozialleistungen wie Krankenversicherung, Rentenversicherungen und Zuschüsse zur privaten Altersvorsorge. Mit 9,8 Prozent Arbeitslosen, 7 Prozent Unterbeschäftigten und 3 bis 4 Prozent der arbeitsfähigen Bevölkerung, die die Suche aufgegeben haben, ist heute fast jeder fünfte Amerikaner arbeitslos oder unterbeschäftigt. Vor einigen Jahren war es nur einer von sechzehn.

Die Arbeitslosigkeit dürfte allerdings erst im kommenden Jahr ihren Höhepunkt erreichen. Eigentlich müssten die USA pro Monat 150.000 neue Arbeitsplätze schaffen, um die Neuzugänge auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zu beschäftigen. Die US-Firmen sind aber weiterhin sehr zurückhaltend bei der Einstellung von neuem Personal. Somit wird es fünf oder mehr Jahre dauern, ehe es die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit abgebaut und es wieder zu realen Lohnerhöhnungen kommen wird.

Theoretisch sollte man in einer Rezession die Wirtschaft ankurbeln, indem man die Konsumenten wieder zum Geldausgeben bewegt. Das wird diesmal aber nicht gelingen. In den letzten Jahren haben zwei massive Einbrüche an den Kapitalmärkten und der Kollaps des Immobilenmarktes zu einer massiven Reduzierung der Privatvermögen geführt. Als Folge ist die Sparquote angestiegen, die Bürger reduzieren ihre Schulden. War die Sparquote vor zwei Jahren noch negativ, so liegt sie jetzt bei 3 Prozent. Meiner Einschätzung nach wird sie aber bald auf 9 Prozent ansteigen – auf einen Wert also wie zuletzt vor 20 Jahren (bevor die Amerikaner so richtig anfingen, auf Pump zu leben). Die Dividendeneinnahmen sind um 23 Prozent und die Zinseinkünfte um 4,5 Prozent gesunken. Das Konsumverhalten der US-Bürger hat sich grundlegend und dauerhaft geändert.

Der Konjunkturaufschwung müsste also durch die Wirtschaft kommen.

Meine Hoffnung hält sich da freilich in Grenzen. Die US-Banken haben ihre Kreditvergabe massiv eingeschränkt und legen ihre Gelder – auch aus Bilanz-kosmetischen Gründen – lieber in US-Bundesschatzbriefen an. Obwohl dem Bankensystem gewaltige Liquidität von der Zentralbank zur Verfügung gestellt wird, kommt diese nicht in der Wirtschaft an. Die Banken leihen sich das Geld für 0.5 Prozent von der Zentralbank und legen es zu 2 Prozent oder mehr wieder in längerfristigen Staatspapieren an. Schneller und sicherer kann man kein Geld verdienen! Das Kreditgeschäft ist auf das Niveau von vor zwei Jahren gesunken und zeigt keine steigende Tendenz. Gemäß unten stehender Grafik sinken die Ausleihungen an kleine- und mittlere Unternehmen. Diese haben aber in den letzten zehn Jahren 60 bis 80 Prozent aller neuen Stellen geschaffen und beschäftigen mehr als 50 Prozent aller Arbeitnehmer in den Vereinigten Staaten.

Interessant ist hier für mich in diesem Zusammenhang auch, dass in früheren Rezessionen – anders als heute – die Ausleihungen der Banken nicht zurückgegangen sind.

Meine Interpretation der jüngsten Äußerungen von Fed-Chef Ben Bernanke ist, dass die Zentralbank nicht gewillt ist, unbeschränkt Geld zu drucken. In den letzten Wochen verstärken sich die Warnungen an Kongress und Präsident Obama hinsichtlich steigender Defizite. Alternativ könnte die Zentralbank noch mehr Hypotheken, Kreditkartenguthaben, Betriebskredite und andere Finanzierungen aufkaufen. Dies hätte mehrere Vorteile: Einerseits müsste die inflationäre Geldmenge nicht wieder zurückgeholt werden. Andererseits laufen die Finanzierungen aus und werden zurückgezahlt – den Immobilienbesitzern (seien es private oder gewerbliche), den klein- und mittelständischen Unternehmen und den Konsumente wäre damit geholfen.

Die Auslastung der US-Industrie steigt zwar  wieder leicht an, liegt aber immer noch auf sehr niedrigem Niveau. Die untenstehende Grafik zeigt den tiefsten Stand, seit diese Daten erhoben werden. Auch hier ist meiner Ansicht noch lange kein Grund für inflationäre Tendenzen in Sicht.

Kurzfristig können höhere Ausgaben auf Seiten des Staates geringere Ausgaben auf Seiten der Wirtschaft und der Konsumenten ausgleichen. Berücksichtigt man jedoch die gewaltigen Haushaltsdefizite, so ist dies nur temporär und begrenzt möglich. Ich gehe aber davon aus, dass wir in absehbarer Zeit ein zweites Konjunkturföderungspaket sehen werden. In einem interessanten Interview mit dem Fernsehsender CNBC erläuterte Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGEMonitor.com und einer der frühen Mahner vor der Finanzkrise, jetzt die fatalen Folgen eines gigantischen Haushaltsdefizits. Allein in diesem Haushaltsjahr betrug das Defizit 1,4 Billionen Dollar, die Schätzungen für die kommenden Jahre belaufen sich auf 1 Billion Dollar pro Jahr.

Meiner Meinung sind diese Annahmen sogar zu optimistisch, basieren sie doch auf der Annahme, dass die Wirtschaft jährlich um 3 Prozent wächst und die Arbeitslosenquote auf 5 Prozent zurückgeht. Ohne Änderungen der jetzigen Haushaltspolitik sehe ich einen Anstieg des jährlichen Defizits auf 2 Billionen Dollar in fünf Jahren mit allen negativen Folgen, die eine solche Verschuldung auf Dauer für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft mit sich bringen würde.

I get a distinct sense that I’m going to be stuck in a rut for a very long time unless I manage to check my ego at the door.

“Leave thyself behind, then approach Me.” – Baha’u'llah

At the moment, I’ve got it in a vice grip, sort of like a child with a security blanket.  As if the blanket itself were held in place under a large boulder. I wrap myself in that blanket and anchor myself against the compelling thrill of true endeavor.

We hold one another tightly, Ego and I, blanket and small child. We hold on indefinitely.

What we need is more people to lose their temper in public. – Watts Wacker

When you’re dissatisified with a stagnant, risk averse, and status-quo-loving corpocracy, how do you blow off steam without alienating or intimidating those few people who help you do your job better and those people you are committed to helping do their jobs better? My approach, which doesn’t work but is incredibly hard for me to abandon , is “targeted ire“.

When I perceive smug, fat headed executives and managers (of all types) talking up a storm, sucking more out of the org than they put in, and doing nothing of substance to improve everyone’s performance, it’s hard for me to “act professionally” (lol!) and keep my freakin’ mouth shut. In the back of my tortured mind, I often hear a faint and deeply fearful voice saying “STFU you idiot”. Sadly, I find it incredibly hard, if not impossible, to follow that advice. Besides the ever present “fear of excommunication”, I think the fact that I don’t aspire to become a self-important, meeting-loving, and game-playing corpocrat drives my self-destructive behavior. Bummer……. or not?

“Never apologize for showing feeling. When you do so, you apologize for the truth.” – Benjamin Disraeli

So, how do you express your dissatisfaction with a stationary and fading organization when the world is crying out for movement and emergence? Do you do anything about it? Do you assume that you‘re powerless, ignore your passion, and force yourself to STFU? Do you put on “the mask of political correctness” such that your potentially sacred-cow-busting ideas and thoughts get obscured by all the sugar that you coat them with?  Are you paralyzed by fear? What do you advise?

Yes, Filipino resilience is
something to be proud about. But what’s sad is that we are
continously put into a position where we HAVE to be “resilient”.
When are we going to say “TAMA NA!!! That’s ENOUGH!”??
Let’s stop… turning the other cheek. Let’s stop being satisfied with
the “lesser evil”. Let’s raise our standards. I think we
are just as guilty as these crooked politicians and this messed up
system. We are just as responsible because we continue to rationalize
and excuse bad behaviour. We allow these people and this flailing
floundering system to hinder us from achieving our full potential as
a country. Maybe one day instead of just being proud of our
‘resilience,’ we can say that we are proud to be a people who finally
put their foot down and demanded for a better life and future as a
nation.

Enough with the martyr complex. Let’s not forget, we were once warriors before we were slaves.

recently i’ve been freaking the f*ck out!!!! and it seems that some close to me are having little mini nervous break downs of their own… feeling stagnate, depressed, frustrated, heart broken, misdirected, unsure, etc. etc. etc…. i just want to remind everyone that you are not alone and you can turn it around… i’m doing so at this very moment… reclaiming my power… and you can reclaim yours. yes sometimes u gotta just feel that sh*t and it sucks… sometimes u have to be down… but we have to ultimately make the decision to pick ourselves up and TURN IT AROUND… do what u need to do…cry, scream, write, create, sing, dance, make love, cook, do yoga, go sky diving, go hiking, be in nature, go to the beach, take a vacation, SAY AFFIRMATIONS, read an inspiring book, spend time with loved ones, spend time alone, get silly, let others know what you’re going through, be more compassionate, seek understanding, make a list of everything you are grateful for, treat yourself, find healthy detachment to the situation, have those long deep conversations over coffee and work through it (thank you Sharmila Rose)… do what u need to do to get feeling good again…whatever that may be for you.. and know that the hard times, the challenges are just helping you grow…and become… more of the amazing being you already are… and happiness is closer than you think…  :) 

you are light. you are love. you are stronger than you know. 

Die Zeit Anfang des 21. Jahrhunderts in Europa ist geprägt von gesellschaftlicher Stagnation, innerer Resignation, Pessimismus, Existenzangst, Zukunftsangst und Verlustangst. Ein Mensch der direkt nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg in Deutschland geboren wurde hat das Wirtschaftswunder erlebt, die Euphorie des Neuanfangs, die großen Erfolge und den selbsterarbeiteten Wohlstand. Sein Bewusstsein ist im großen Teil durch Optimismus, Fortschrittsglaube und den Glaube an die eigene Stärke und Gestaltungskraft geprägt. Wie aber sieht das durchschnittliche Bewusstsein aus bei einem Deutschen der um das Jahr 1980 geboren wurde. Der mit 9 Jahren die friedliche Revolution und die Wendezeit erlebt hat. Unterbewusst hat er jetzt im Jahre 2009 noch das Gefühl dass gesellschaftlicher Wandel und Revolutionen möglich sind. Aber durch seine Lebenserfahrung und Lebenswelt weiß er dass dem auch immer ein Wunschdenken voraus geht, dass dann letztendlich aus pragmatischer, praktischer Vernunft und Weltnotwendigkeit nicht erfüllbar ist. Resignation vor der Zeit und der Welt stellt sich ein.

Aber nicht nur für ihn. Aus unseren Denkmustern ist der Zeitcharakter erkennbar. Zynismus ist ein häufig vorkommender Bestandteil in der Gesellschaft, bei den Menschen. Zynismus speist sich im überwiegenden Sinne aus Resignation. Resignation also Aufgabe vor der Zukunft und unserer Welt. Nie zuvor in der Menschheitsgeschichte waren Existenzängste und Zukunftsängste so verbreitet wie in unserer Zeit. Nie zuvor gab es soviele psychisch kranke Menschen in den Industrieländern. Nie zuvor gab es so einen Druck auf die Gesellschaften von außen. Durch zum Beispiel den weltweiten Wettbewerb, Klimawandel, Migration.

Kriege werden vordergründig weltweit gegen Terrorismus und für Menschenrechte geführt. Hintergründig stehen Gründe wie Ressourcenerreichbarkeit, Ausbau von strategischer Macht und Kulturkampf zu Buche.

Wir leben also heute in Europa in einer Zeit des Stillstandes. Praktisch zeigt sich das in sinkenden und tiefen Geburtsraten, abnehmenden Wohlstand und Freiheit die immer mehr beschnitten wird. Ängste ziehen sich durch das Gesellschaftsbewusstsein wie ein roter Faden durch die Weltgeschichte. Und Menschen die Angst haben sind leicht zu steuern und zu instrumentalisieren durch Machtinteressen. Bürgerrechte werden beschnitten um den Menschen „mehr Sicherheit zu geben“. Versicherungen verdienen gut weil die Menschen sich immer mehr nach etwas nicht möglichen sehnen: der wirklichen und vollständigen Sicherheit und Absicherung aller Lebensrisiken.

Der Stillstand, der sich auch in Abwanderung von Wirtschaft in die Wachstumsländer zeigt, in fehlenden Vorbildern der Gesellschaft, einer fehlenden wirklichen Elite und einem fehlenden Zukunftsoptimismus, ist es der diese Gesellschaft wie ein roter Faden durchzieht. Und Konsequenzen dieses Stillstandes sind Festhalten an Überkommendes, Nichtwahrnehmen von Realitäten und Lethargie. Das Problem der Überalterung wird nicht thematisiert. Nicht in Debatten und nicht in der Politik. Wo ist die Bevölkerungspolitik die die deutsche Stammbevölkerung zu erhalten versucht. Einwanderung wird als Lösung gepriesen. Ein Glaube aus eigener Kraft weiter zu bestehen ist verloren gegangen. Verloren gegangen im Winde des Wohlstandes, der Dekadenz und des neurotischen Sicherheitsdenkens einer vergreisenden Gesellschaft.

Wie anders als durch Jugend und frische Ideen sind Fortschritt, Entwicklung und Zukunft zu bewerkstelligen. Es ist wohl später einmal ein Treppenwitz der Geschichte dass in einer Zeit der wissenschaftlichen Revolutionen in Biotechnologie, Nanotechnologie, Medizin und Informationstechnologie so wenig Glaube an Lösung der größten Gesellschaft und Menschheitsfragen vorhanden ist.

Eine Gesellschaft deren Gesellschaftsvertrag “Wohlstand für die Mehrheit” heißt wird nicht mehr lange zu gewährleisten sein und ich prophezeie dass wenn kein neuer Gesellschaftsvertrag in Deutschland geschlossen wird, dieses Land auseinander bricht. Nicht in mehrere Länder aber in eine postmoderne, neue Ständegesellschaft. Dieses zu verhindern ist Aufgabe aller Menschen.

Nicht mehr wachsen sondern nun erhalten ist die Aufgabe unserer Zeit in unserer Gesellschaft in allen Bereichen!

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) – Be very careful when looking at companies exposed to the Australian dollar over the next few months, certainly until the December 31 reporting period starts next February-March.

There are going to be a lot of losers and some winners as the dollar gallops towards 90 cents US, and then towards the magic level of parity with the greenback.

Look at the next story for a rough idea of the damage a stronger dollar is doing to $A returns from the higher gold price. A lot of exporters are feeling similar pain.

The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver reckons parity is somewhere ahead in the next few months.

But given the way the Aussie ploughed ahead after the Reserve Bank rate rise this week, it could come sooner.

Driven by cheap money from the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and theEuropean central banks, the Aussie is a darling plaything of the carry trade investor, large and small.

It is also a proxy for commodities and will rise as the US dollar falls.

The US dollar will continue falling because the silly billies in the markets are worried about inflation and all those greenbacks.

What they should really be worried about is all those dollars being printed and stagnation (not inflation) as the US economy continues (like Japan’s, Europe’s and the UK’s) to operate at less than full capacity: around 75%-80% in many industries.

That is pressing down on costs, not boosting them.

The fall in the value of the US dollar will have no impact simply because exports are weak because foreign demand is weak and the rising cost of imports will have to be eaten by US companies and importers because there is no pricing power at the moment.

Unemployment (as we saw last Friday) remains miserable for Americans with wages hardly growing, working hours cut to a record low of 33 hours a week. 

No wonder the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke continues to warn Americans that the recovery won’t feel like one because unemployment won’t improve for years.

So what’s all that to do with Australia and the dollar?

It’s why the Aussie dollar will remain weak, because not only do we produce and export commodities which are in demand in China, India and other emerging economies, but we do so efficiently, have good laws and our growth prospects (and therefore returns) are better than most other economies at the moment.

Hence the demand for the Aussie dollar, both for investment and finance reasons and good old fashioned speculation.

The Reserve Bank knows that, but in its post rate rise statement, it skated over the impact on our trade account, except a brief mention about slow growth in the tradeables sector (i.e. exports).

So stand by for a good, old fashioned current account scare as the Australian dollar continues to rise as it did in the wake of the Reserve Bank rate rise and export income comes under more pressure.

The dollar hit a new 14 month peak around 89.20 US cents as gold soared to a new all time highs, thanks to a fall in the value of the US dollar (due in part to the RBA decision), but mostly to that strongly denied report in The Independent newspaper in London that oil producing states were pushing to drop the greenback as a pricing currency.

We saw Tuesday the damage the stronger dollar has done to the trade account, with the value of imports down (this will feed through into lower inflation which the RBA would like to see) and lower export income (this is adding pressure to the fall already happening in exports because of the recession and the fall in the prices of iron ore and coal).

The RBA admitted that interest rates have risen for many borrowers because of higher fixed home loan rates and risk margins for business borrowers. It also admitted it prepared to wear the damage to the export account (or tradeables, as it termed them in the post meeting statement yesterday).

“In addition, the exchange rate has appreciated considerably over the past year, which will dampen pressure on prices and constrain growth in the tradeables sector.

“These factors have been carefully considered by the Board.”

But Australia’s export income has shrunk by a third from its peak around October-November last year and by 25% since last September. 

The exchange rate a year ago was 88 US cents; it fell to an average of 66 US cents, and has rebounded this year. Currently it is up around a third from those lows. The ABS computed the August trade figures using an exchange rate of just over 83 US cents.

The RBA has already warned that the terms of trade would worsen because of the slump and the downturn in prices, but it would seem from previous comments, it had been looking for the lower exchange rate to cushion that for a bit longer than it actually has.

Its own commodity price index for September revealed a 2.7% fall after a 0.2% drop in August.

TD Securities Global markets chief strategist, Stephen Koukoulas got stuck into the RBA’s decision for this very reason in an opinion piece in the AFR yesterday.

He said the “glaring omission” from the RBA statement “was the specific mention of exports”.

“With exports accounting for 20% of Australia’s GDP and the world economy an important element of the RBA’s more upbeat view, it was a curious point to gloss over”.

“Just hours before the RBA lifted rates, the international trade data confirmed the news that Australia’s exports had collapsed, falling by more than a third from peak levels a year ago.

“While the RBA noted the exchange rate had appreciated considerably, which will constrain growth in the sector, the free fall in exports must be one of the biggest risks to the RBA’s view.

“On top of this, the RBA Governor conceded in his statement that there had already been a defacto rate rise because of higher fixed home loan rates and risk margins on loans for business, plus the impact of the higher exchange rate.

“Interest rates facing prospective borrowers on fixed-rate loans have already risen to some extent, as markets have anticipated a higher level of the cash rate.

“For many business borrowers, increases in risk margins will still be occurring for some time yet.

“Unemployment has not risen as far as had been expected. The weaker demand for labour over the past year or so nonetheless has seen a moderation in labour costs.

“Helped by this and the earlier fall in energy and commodity prices, inflation has been declining, though measures of underlying inflation remained higher than the target on the latest reading.

“Underlying inflation should continue to moderate in the near term, but now will probably not fall as far as earlier thought.”

That’s the subtext for the decision: inflation wasn’t crushed by the slowdown because it was too shallow. Now we have to lift rates and use the appreciating exchange rate to do the job.

So, the likes of major miners such as Newcrest (the Australian dollar has risen faster this year than the rise in gold prices), OZ Minerals, etc will be hit. 

Those pricing in US dollars, such as Fortescue, BHP Billion and Rio will benefit, but when they convert back to Australian dollars (or Rand, or Canadian dollars) they will feel the pain. Lihir Gold is another whose business will be disrupted.

Coal exporters like Macarthur Coal and oil exporters like Woodside, Santos and the like will feel the pain as well as they restate their US dollar exports and sales into Australian dollars.

But with the string of huge resource projects to be built, a stronger dollar will ease the construction costs, especially on imported materials and equipment.

Rural exporters like GrainCorp, ABB Grain, AWB and Gunns will take a hit because the Australian dollar value will be reduced.

So for many miners and others there will be swings and roundabouts. US dollar debt will become cheaper and repaying it will be easier. Banks should benefit from that.

Car importers and retailers will do well. Car exporters like Holden and Toyota will feel more pain.

Retailers like Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, Wesfarmers (Coles Group and Bunnings), Woolies, Myer and David Jones will all see a big drop in the cost of imports.

That could make Christmas a bit easier than it now seems.

The car importers and retailers and the big retailers who import will have a bit of margin to play with if sales growth slows. If it’s strong, earnings could be fatter than now projected.

Source: Watch the Trade Account And the Dollar's Surge

(CFD.net.au – Contract for Difference, Share, Forex, ETFs, Commodities Traders) – Be very careful when looking at companies exposed to the Australian dollar over the next few months, certainly until the December 31 reporting period starts next February-March.

There are going to be a lot of losers and some winners as the dollar gallops towards 90 cents US, and then towards the magic level of parity with the greenback.

Look at the next story for a rough idea of the damage a stronger dollar is doing to $A returns from the higher gold price. A lot of exporters are feeling similar pain.

The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver reckons parity is somewhere ahead in the next few months.

But given the way the Aussie ploughed ahead after the Reserve Bank rate rise this week, it could come sooner.

Driven by cheap money from the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and theEuropean central banks, the Aussie is a darling plaything of the carry trade investor, large and small.

It is also a proxy for commodities and will rise as the US dollar falls.

The US dollar will continue falling because the silly billies in the markets are worried about inflation and all those greenbacks.

What they should really be worried about is all those dollars being printed and stagnation (not inflation) as the US economy continues (like Japan’s, Europe’s and the UK’s) to operate at less than full capacity: around 75%-80% in many industries.

That is pressing down on costs, not boosting them.

The fall in the value of the US dollar will have no impact simply because exports are weak because foreign demand is weak and the rising cost of imports will have to be eaten by US companies and importers because there is no pricing power at the moment.

Unemployment (as we saw last Friday) remains miserable for Americans with wages hardly growing, working hours cut to a record low of 33 hours a week. 

No wonder the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke continues to warn Americans that the recovery won’t feel like one because unemployment won’t improve for years.

So what’s all that to do with Australia and the dollar?

It’s why the Aussie dollar will remain weak, because not only do we produce and export commodities which are in demand in China, India and other emerging economies, but we do so efficiently, have good laws and our growth prospects (and therefore returns) are better than most other economies at the moment.

Hence the demand for the Aussie dollar, both for investment and finance reasons and good old fashioned speculation.

The Reserve Bank knows that, but in its post rate rise statement, it skated over the impact on our trade account, except a brief mention about slow growth in the tradeables sector (i.e. exports).

So stand by for a good, old fashioned current account scare as the Australian dollar continues to rise as it did in the wake of the Reserve Bank rate rise and export income comes under more pressure.

The dollar hit a new 14 month peak around 89.20 US cents as gold soared to a new all time highs, thanks to a fall in the value of the US dollar (due in part to the RBA decision), but mostly to that strongly denied report in The Independent newspaper in London that oil producing states were pushing to drop the greenback as a pricing currency.

We saw Tuesday the damage the stronger dollar has done to the trade account, with the value of imports down (this will feed through into lower inflation which the RBA would like to see) and lower export income (this is adding pressure to the fall already happening in exports because of the recession and the fall in the prices of iron ore and coal).

The RBA admitted that interest rates have risen for many borrowers because of higher fixed home loan rates and risk margins for business borrowers. It also admitted it prepared to wear the damage to the export account (or tradeables, as it termed them in the post meeting statement yesterday).

“In addition, the exchange rate has appreciated considerably over the past year, which will dampen pressure on prices and constrain growth in the tradeables sector.

“These factors have been carefully considered by the Board.”

But Australia’s export income has shrunk by a third from its peak around October-November last year and by 25% since last September. 

The exchange rate a year ago was 88 US cents; it fell to an average of 66 US cents, and has rebounded this year. Currently it is up around a third from those lows. The ABS computed the August trade figures using an exchange rate of just over 83 US cents.

The RBA has already warned that the terms of trade would worsen because of the slump and the downturn in prices, but it would seem from previous comments, it had been looking for the lower exchange rate to cushion that for a bit longer than it actually has.

Its own commodity price index for September revealed a 2.7% fall after a 0.2% drop in August.

TD Securities Global markets chief strategist, Stephen Koukoulas got stuck into the RBA’s decision for this very reason in an opinion piece in the AFR yesterday.

He said the “glaring omission” from the RBA statement “was the specific mention of exports”.

“With exports accounting for 20% of Australia’s GDP and the world economy an important element of the RBA’s more upbeat view, it was a curious point to gloss over”.

“Just hours before the RBA lifted rates, the international trade data confirmed the news that Australia’s exports had collapsed, falling by more than a third from peak levels a year ago.

“While the RBA noted the exchange rate had appreciated considerably, which will constrain growth in the sector, the free fall in exports must be one of the biggest risks to the RBA’s view.

“On top of this, the RBA Governor conceded in his statement that there had already been a defacto rate rise because of higher fixed home loan rates and risk margins on loans for business, plus the impact of the higher exchange rate.

“Interest rates facing prospective borrowers on fixed-rate loans have already risen to some extent, as markets have anticipated a higher level of the cash rate.

“For many business borrowers, increases in risk margins will still be occurring for some time yet.

“Unemployment has not risen as far as had been expected. The weaker demand for labour over the past year or so nonetheless has seen a moderation in labour costs.

“Helped by this and the earlier fall in energy and commodity prices, inflation has been declining, though measures of underlying inflation remained higher than the target on the latest reading.

“Underlying inflation should continue to moderate in the near term, but now will probably not fall as far as earlier thought.”

That’s the subtext for the decision: inflation wasn’t crushed by the slowdown because it was too shallow. Now we have to lift rates and use the appreciating exchange rate to do the job.

So, the likes of major miners such as Newcrest (the Australian dollar has risen faster this year than the rise in gold prices), OZ Minerals, etc will be hit. 

Those pricing in US dollars, such as Fortescue, BHP Billion and Rio will benefit, but when they convert back to Australian dollars (or Rand, or Canadian dollars) they will feel the pain. Lihir Gold is another whose business will be disrupted.

Coal exporters like Macarthur Coal and oil exporters like Woodside, Santos and the like will feel the pain as well as they restate their US dollar exports and sales into Australian dollars.

But with the string of huge resource projects to be built, a stronger dollar will ease the construction costs, especially on imported materials and equipment.

Rural exporters like GrainCorp, ABB Grain, AWB and Gunns will take a hit because the Australian dollar value will be reduced.

So for many miners and others there will be swings and roundabouts. US dollar debt will become cheaper and repaying it will be easier. Banks should benefit from that.

Car importers and retailers will do well. Car exporters like Holden and Toyota will feel more pain.

Retailers like Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, Wesfarmers (Coles Group and Bunnings), Woolies, Myer and David Jones will all see a big drop in the cost of imports.

That could make Christmas a bit easier than it now seems.

The car importers and retailers and the big retailers who import will have a bit of margin to play with if sales growth slows. If it’s strong, earnings could be fatter than now projected.

Source: Watch the Trade Account And the Dollar's Surge

                  Yoga is difficult for the one whose mind is not subdued.

                                                  Bhagavad Gita

Since moving to Florida I have been feeling like a bit of a faux-gini.  Literally translated this would be a Faux Yogini.  I have been so scattered, life has been so chaotic and bipolar with moments of high stress followed by solitary lulls and isolation that I have been feeling off my game in, well, life.  I haven’t managed to cultivate any sort of a routine or rhythm for my life down here barring the waking, work, home, dogs, blog, sleep.  This seems like a short-sighted and short shelf life kind of life plan. 

Part of this is due to the fact that I feel like life is sort of in a state of limbo; partially on pause.  With my husband not down here right now I feel like our Florida life is just maintaining on life support until full measures of resuscitation are activated.  But, in truth, I am the only force that can activate these measures and I can’t wait around indefinitely to do so. 

I can only spend so long staring at the walls of our new house, writing and researching all night with a background of Law & Order, NCIS, or Bones humming in my ear, and finding peaks of adrenaline with the moments I have to kill, shoo, or bury one manner of critter or another.  Last night it was a dragonfly.  I don’t even want to talk about the scene that was my livingroom during that five minute drama–dogs, wings, and a yellow broom.

In this life-support limbo I have been living in I have neglected all manner of healthy eating habits that I had cultivated, choosing instead to the easier route of whatever take out is most accessible and quickly edible.  I have abandoned all and any yogic routine that I might have cultivated using excuses (some real, others weak) including physical pain, exhaustion, and disorientation to the local yoga studios and classes. 

Well this is the week of life resuscitation–begun yesterday with my assertion to create healthy sleeping habits.  It is time to form this Florida life beyond insect slaughters and amphibian burials. 

As of this upcoming weekend I will have been in Florida for a month.  This is my deadline.  I am on the brink of making a life of my own in a house, while not literally my own, rented for a year to be my own–I have to Virginia Woolf this sucker and find a metaphorical room of “one’s”/my own. 

 Sometimes the hardest, the scariest thing is moving forward and effecting change in our own lives.  Consistency becomes comforting.  Stagnation starts to feel cozy.  The idea of thrusting ourselves out of the norm and what we know–intentional inertia–seems like unnecessary extra trouble and work.  Sometimes, however, doing that work is what is necessary for real growth; to create a challenge we may need in our life and then force ourselves to rise up and meet it. 

Some might look at my life and say I did the hard part–change states, change jobs, change out homes and climates but in truth I have yet to make the real stretch or do anything much that requires a real shift.  I have yet to shift the practices and core focuses of my life.  A job goes from 9-5 or 8-4:30 in my case and so my routine, although locationally different, remains in the same sequence.  The scenery of my home and state may have exchanged palms for firs but I still drive down highways, sit at desks, eat at restaurants, and shop at stores that are similar. 

The changes we make that are really core shaking are, well, in the core.  That is the scary stuff: Soul shifting, heart opening, emotionally rattling core changes.  I know, in some fearfully intuitive way, that my yoga training will be such a shift.  And like an athlete preparing for a triathlon I know I have to prepare myself: mind, body, and soul.  I have to eat better, move more intentionally, sit more calmly, and be working towards the shift I am about to make. 

With a vegan, yogic, monastic lifestyle ahead on my horizon I have to start living intentionally and finding the yoga in every moment. 

How would you create a more intentional life with just one shift in your daily living?  That is a very weighty question but one I have been trying to sort for myself.  I believe I am going to start with mindful eating–eating more consciously, healthfully, and with more the pace of a gazelle rather than a sloppy, ravenous vulture (this would be my old method).  While this may be a small piece I have a tendency for impulsive craving satiation so this is probably one of my biggest hurdles of all. 

Starting with Saturday’s yoga at the beach class, which was postponed last time due to weather and abdominal pain, I will try to incorporate intentional movement into the mix.  Piece by piece, bit by bit…I am working my way to a shift in my core.

Yoga heals, nourishes, and challenges us.  The practice infiltrates every corner of our lives.

Valerie Jeremijenko