According to Rasmussen’s poll, the latest telephone survey of likely voters gave Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 46-45 percent lead in the Sunshine State. Another five percent of voters prefer a different candidate and four percent are undecided.

But, as with nearly every poll being released lately, the lead is well within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is a statistical tie and could go either way.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll, which isn’t as reliable, currently has the race with Romney capturing 47 percent of the vote to Obama’s 44 percent of the vote. Overall, Rasmussen puts the race right now for the Electoral College at 247 votes for Obama and 191 votes for Romney.

A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency.

According to Talkingpointsmemo.com’s Poll tracker Obama leads nationally by 0.3 points. TPM.com’s averages found Obama is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio.

RealClearPolitics found in its averaging of polls that Obama currently leads by 1.2 percent, again, well within the margin of error. Intrade, which places odds on the election, currently has Obama at 56.2 percent likelihood of winning to Mitt Romney’s 41.9 percent of winning.

According to RealClearPolitics, the last time it’s average found Romney ahead was on October 11, 2011.

In the movie “A Fish Called Wanda,” the main character Otto (played by Kevin Kline) is bragging about how America always wins.  Another character says, “You mean, like Vietnam?”

“It was a tie!”  Otto blurts.

The truth, it seems, is hard for some to admit.

In Canada, a recent poll from Léger Marketing showed the NDP in first place federally with 33%, the Conservatives second with 32% and the Liberals third with 19%.

Great news for the NDP. For the first time since 1988 – 24 years ago – the NDP placed number one in a federal poll.   To me that calls for a screaming headline:

“NDP in first place in Federal poll for first time in almost quarter century!”

But no, the headline instead read:

“NDP in dead heat with Conservatives.”   Isn’t a dead heat an exact tie?  And this wasn’t an exact tie.

Then, in case you missed it, the sub headline (which usually adds new information to grab reader interest) repeats again: “Nationwide poll confirms statistical tie.”  Shades of Otto, if you ask me.  Or maybe that’s just the way close polls are reported these days.   So the next poll out, this time by Ipsos Reid, had the Conservatives ahead with 34%, and the NDP close behind at 33%.   And the headline?

“Conservative popularity sinks but Stephen Harper approval holds steady: poll.”

Not a great headline for the Conservatives, but no headline mention of the rising NDP, and certainly no mention of a “statistical tie.”

And now even worse, the most recent Harris Decima poll.  The NDP are now ahead of the Tories by 3% (33% to 30%) indicating what well may be a trend for a rising NDP: And the headline? Yep, once again:

“Conservatives, NDP statistically tied in new poll.”

For some, the idea that the NDP could actually be in front, a contender for power in the next federal election, clearly might take some getting used to.  It took decades for the Americans to get over Vietnam too.

And here is the thing about “Statistical Ties.” They aren’t. It’s a misleading term. It implies that if two parties in a poll have results within the posted margin of error of each other that it is equally likely that either party could be winning.  But that is not true, and is a misunderstanding, or misreporting, of what the Margin of Error (MOE) actually is.  Statistically, if one party is ahead of another party in a poll, it’s more probable that they are ahead, than behind (or in a tie), even if both values fall within the MOE.

Margin of Error doesn’t mean that all points within the margin of error have the same probability of being the true value – especially those at the outer edges of the MOE range.  It is true that it much more likely that the true value is inside the MOE than outside it, but that is very different from saying all points within the MOE are of equal probability of being the actual result had everyone, rather than only a sample of them, been polled. That is not the case.

Here is a tie: “Party A 40%, Party B 40%”.  The headline could read “Party A and Party B are in an actual tie!”

So what does what “Harris Decima 33% to 30%” really mean? It means the NDP is almost certainly ahead. And the recent polling trend is clear too. The NDP is rising significantly.

The bottom line? “Statistical tie” is just not a useful term, except to downplay the real meaning of poll results.

The Vietnam war wasn’t a tie. And Mulcair’s NDP is in first place federally. It’s time for the media and pollsters to say so.

Bob Penner is the CEO of Strategic Communications Inc., and a campaign strategist and pollster.

As we are all aware, your state is up next in this 2012 Republican Nominating process.  So far in this race we have seen only two of the remaining six candidates stand out above the rest.  One is the frontrunner, Establishment pick, and Chosen One, Mitt Romney.  The other is the anti-Establishment, anti-status quo candidate who the mainstream media will try to tell you has no chance of winning the nomination much less to defeat President Obama in November.

I’m here to tell you, that is a lie!  While I congratulate Governor Romney for making history by becoming the first candidate in history that wasn’t an incumbent to win both Iowa and New Hampshire and that certainly deserves some respect proving what a great organization his campaign has managed to build in this 2012 election campaign.

However, to think that a candidate who has finished 3rd and 2nd place respectively, who continues to show impressive fundraising ability with his monthly “Money Bombs”, and who just as recently as January 8th was shown to be in a statistical tie with the President trailing by just a single point 46-45 nationally; to think that candidate who has done that well would not have a chance to be elected is simply absurd and wishful thinking.

The goal of this blog is not necessarily to convert you to become a Ron Paul supporter even though it would make my day if I did.  My goal is simply to ask that you do not fall in line with Mitt Romney just because the media tells you he is the only one that can win.  When you’re making your vote on January 21st, I urge that you will make your choice based on your principles and who you believe would do the best job of getting our nation back on track.  Not because you heard on CNN or Fox that Mitt Romney is the “presumptive nominee” and you think that because the media said it, well it must be true!  The problem with that logic is that 1) we’re only two states in and 2) other voters would like the chance to make a meaningful vote just as you’re getting that chance to do on January 21st.  I’ll leave you with one last question and that is: Suppose the South Carolina Primary were in April, May, or June, wouldn’t you like the opportunity to cast a vote that actually means something towards deciding the nominee instead of the process being a foregone conclusion?  Just something to think about…

Sincerely,

A Concerned Voter

Update (1/19/12): Just received news that Mitt Romney didn’t actually win Iowa!  So much for making history…

http://www.krmg.com/news/news/local/gop-candidate-rick-santorum-wins-iowa-two-weeks-af/nGTb6/